8/5/2014

Army holds the key...the rest light and shadow

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Army holds the key...the rest light and shadow

Ayaz Amir

Tuesday, August 05, 2014

Islamabad diary
No change has ever occurred in Pakistan except through the power of the
sword - the open or hidden intervention of the army. Why should it be different
this time?
Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri are playing no ones game. The script in front
of them is their own. But the arena or theatre in which they are playing their
parts is controlled not by them. Over it fall the long shadows cast by the
armys bayonets. Whether we like it or not, such is the nature of the Pakistani
state, such the contours of Pakistani politics.
Like the crowds which occupied Tahrir Square in Cairo, the battalions led by
the Kaptaan and the Sheikh can create the conditions for a political change.
But the key in the lock, as in Cairo or even Bangkok, if it is turned at all will
be turned not by the long marchers or the sit-in crowds but the real battalions
under the command of General Headquarters. The cue has to come from
there as it did at the time of Nawaz Sharifs so-called long march when the
final screw which brought about the restoration of My Lord Iftikhar Chaudhry
was turned by Gen Kayani.
Then the army and Nawaz Sharif were marching to the same tune. The
slogan was rule of law; the reality was the desire to cut President Zardari
down to size. As the then president was forced to eat humble pie that
objective was achieved, although Gen Kayani could scarcely have foreseen
that in the restoration of Justice Ch the army was creating another problem for itself. The law of unintended consequences usually
becomes clearer only after the event.
It is Nawaz Sharifs misfortune and the mother of all his troubles that he and the army are not marching to the same tune anymore.
Gone are the days when he was an army favourite, buoyed up by hidden tutors to act as a counterweight to the PPP. Today the army
seems barely able to tolerate him and his extended family with their monopoly of political power.
There is another problem. Even if the army is in no mood for overt intervention, each time Pervaiz Rashid with his mournful looks
he must do something about them, hes begun to look like an Auntie and Saad Rafique with his Groucho Marx moustache makes
a television appearance it is a fair bet that the most democracy-loving army officer is inclined to weigh the merits of a military coup.
Saad and Pervaizits their faces and the way they speak. If ISPR is ever to run a pro-coup campaign all it has to do is run their TV
clips repeatedlyand the usual photos of Hamza Shahbaz looking thoughtful with his fist under his chin, like Allama Iqbal. Nothing
more need be said; that would do the trick.
The army is not doing anything overtly. It is allowing Mian Sahib to twist in the wind and will not pull his chestnuts out of the fire,
Article 245 notwithstanding. In this season of contrary winds the PML-N is getting nothing right. Handing over the capitals security to
the army has done it no good and will not come to its rescue when the marches get close to the capitals defences. But it has
earned all-round flak for this move.
Bhutto managed to keep the army on his right side right up to the 1977 elections. Only then did the scales shift, after which Gen Zia
and his leading generals started getting ideas in their heads. It is Nawaz Sharifs singular achievement that he has managed to turn
the army against himself in just a year, that too over such relative trifles as Gen Musharrafs trial. Any rustic could have told him to let
sleeping dogs lie. But he had to go and kick itand now matters have spun out of his control. And government authority is not what it
might have been, not after the bloodletting in Model Town.
My friend Rana Sanaullah says that he is an adna kaarkun of the party and loss of ministership means nothing to him. He need
have no fears on this count. In the Model Town inquiry he has been treated exactly like an adna kaarkun, the chief minister washing
his hands off the whole affair and pinning the blame on his former law minister. As an adna kaarkun he will surely take this in his
stride.
So it is against this backdrop, this perception of PML-N weakness stemming from its frayed relationship with the army, that Imran
Khan and the Allama are revving up for their long marches on Islamabad. The army is not coming to the governments rescue. The
government will have to deal with the marches on its own. So the question really is: can a demoralised Punjab police force, sick and
tired of long sentry duties, come up to the governments expectations and act as its storm-troopers? The related question of course
is whether the long march leaderships will be able to drum up and mobilise the requisite mass support?
And watching this drama keenly, through narrow eyes, will be the army command, playing it by the book, savouring the spectacle of
civilian discomfiture. It was at the 11th hour that Gen Kayani made his telephone call which resulted in what an over-eager nation,
rushing to judgement, hailed as the triumph of the constitution and the rule of law azad adlia hogi toh sub theek ho jai ga, nokrian
bhi mil jaen gee, maeeshat bhi theek ho jai gi. Whats that old Talat Mehmood song? Raat ne kya kya khwab dikhaye
The PML-Ns fate depends not on the constitution or its mandate. Not a leaf will stir on its behalf, not a single worker turn out in its
defence. Its fate depends wholly and solely on the Punjab police and the Islamabad police. Measures are already afoot to block the
marches the usual containers and naakas, etc. Will the two police forces be able to hold their nerves? The last time in front of the
Islamabad airport they were made to run for their lives by stone-hurling youngsters. It was a funny spectacle, fit for a Hollywood
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8/5/2014

Army holds the key...the rest light and shadow

thriller. Will it be any different this time, especially when the interior ministers long sulk is still not over? Who will coordinate the
police effort? Saad Rafique, Pervaiz Rashid the mind boggles.
If there is even a hint of disorder, the first signs of chaos on the roads in and around Islamabadthat will be the time for the
strategic phone call or even something more. Since we have our own history books for a guide, in one form or another it will then be
curtains for this drama. It doesnt take much mathematical genius to figure this out.
But if the Kaptaan and Ya Sheikh think that any of this is going to be for their benefit they need to brush up on their Pakistani history.
The army always acts for itself, not for any presumed allies or surrogates. Air Marshal Asghar Khans 1977 experience should be
instructive in this regard. As for mid-term elections, thats another lullaby to put the nation to sleep. Those who come follow their own
agenda.
But how delicately the situation is poised: either curtains for this drama, that too very soon, or four more years of this dispensation. If
Nawaz Sharif survives this summer of discontent he will have made it provided of course the Khawajas and the Kashmiri pundits
are kept on a short leash.
Email: winlust@yahoo.com
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