This article was downloaded by: [Universidad Eafit]

On: 05 November 2014, At: 07:33

Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House,
37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1T 3JH, UK

Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and

Environmental Effects
Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information:
http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/ueso20

Global Geothermal Energy Scenario by 2040

A. H. Demirbas

Sila Science , Trabzon, Turkey

Published online: 26 Aug 2008.

To cite this article: A. H. Demirbas (2008) Global Geothermal Energy Scenario by 2040, Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery,
Utilization, and Environmental Effects, 30:20, 1890-1895, DOI: 10.1080/15567030701468027
To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15567030701468027

PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE

Taylor & Francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content) contained
in the publications on our platform. However, Taylor & Francis, our agents, and our licensors make no
representations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose of the
Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors, and
are not the views of or endorsed by Taylor & Francis. The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and
should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for
any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever
or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of
the Content.
This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic
reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any
form to anyone is expressly forbidden. Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://
www.tandfonline.com/page/terms-and-conditions

Energy Sources, Part A, 30:18901895, 2008

Copyright Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
ISSN: 1556-7036 print/1556-7230 online
DOI: 10.1080/15567030701468027

Global Geothermal Energy Scenario by 2040

A. H. DEMIRBAS1

Downloaded by [Universidad Eafit] at 07:33 05 November 2014

Sila Science, Trabzon, Turkey

Abstract Geothermal energy is clean, cheap, and renewable. Geothermal utilization
is commonly divided into two categories: electric production and direct application.
Geothermal power is the use of geothermal heat for electricity generation. It is more
competitive in countries that have limited hydrocarbon resources. Geothermal energy
is an alternative potential source of power, which will become more important as
an electrical power source in the future. Unit investments are generally lower for
geothermal power plants. It will be expected that the share of global geothermal
electricity in global total electricity will be 0.67, 1.25, 2.03, and 2.81% in 2010, 2020,
2030, and 2040, respectively. Therefore, the share of global geothermal electricity in
global renewable electricity will be 3.06, 3.57, 3.65, and 3.42% in 2010, 2020, 2030,
and 2040, respectively.
Keywords geothermal electricity, geothermal energy, geothermal energy scenario

Introduction
The word geothermal comes from the Greek words geo (earth) and therme (heat).
Geothermal energy is renewable heat energy from deep in the earth. Groundwater is
heated to form hydrothermal resources naturally occurring as hot water and steam. Use
of hydrothermal energy is economic today at a number of high-grade sites. Hydrothermal
resources are tapped by existing well drilling and energy conversion technology to
generate electricity or to produce hot water for direct use.
Geothermal energy is clean, cheap, and renewable, and can be utilized in various
forms such as space heating and domestic hot water supply, carbon dioxide and dry
ice production processes, heat pumps, greenhouse heating, swimming and balneology
(therapeutic baths), industrial processes, and electricity generation (Demirbas et al., 2004).
There are four different types of geological formations from which energy can be
usefully extracted: hydrothermal, geopressurized, hot dry rock, and magma (Baird, 1993).
The energy from all of these reservoirs can be tapped and used for heating or electricity
generation.
The top four countries with the largest utilization are China, Iceland, the United
States, and Turkey, together accounting for over half (54%) of the worlds geothermal
energy utilization. Table 1 shows the worlds top countries using geothermal energy in
direct uses. Austria, Canada, Sweden, Switzerland, and Turkey have produced the largest
energy utilization increase in the past five years by almost doubling their use. The first
four countries increase is due to geothermal heat pump installations, and Turkeys is due
to the numerous new district heating systems brought on line (Lund and Freeston, 2000;
Address correspondence to Ayse Hilal Demirbas, P. K. 216, TR-61035 Trabzon, Turkey.
E-mail: ahilaldemirbas@yahoo.com.tr

1890

Global Geothermal Energy Scenario by 2040

1891

Downloaded by [Universidad Eafit] at 07:33 05 November 2014

Table 1
Worlds top countries using geothermal energy in direct use
Country

Installed MWth

Production, GWh/a

China
Japan
USA
Iceland
Turkey
New Zealand
Georgia
Russia
France
Sweden
Hungary
Mexico
Italy
Romania
Switzerland

2,282
1,167
3,766
1,469
820
308
250
308
326
377
473
164
326
152
547

10,531
7,482
5,640
5,603
4,377
196
1,752
1,707
1,360
1,147
1,135
1,089
1,048
797
663

Source: Fridleifsson (2001).

Demirbas, 2002). In Turkey, the installed capacity for direct use (mostly space heating)
was 140 MWt in 1994 and had grown to 274 MWth in May 1997.
Geothermal utilization is commonly divided into two categories: electric production
and direct application. To produce electricity, the geothermal resource must be concentrated and easy to access.

Geothermal Electricity
More than 27 countries use geothermal power systems. The development of geothermal
power systems is growing by 9% every year. Even in locations where hydrothermal
activity is not available, geothermal heat pumps are still applicable (Veziroglu, 1983).
There are three main techniques by which energy is extracted from the geothermal
sources: (a) dry steam cycle, (b) flash cycle, and (c) binary fluid cycle. Dry steam plants
take steam out of fractures in the ground and use it to directly drive a turbine that spins
a generator. Flash plants take hot water, usually at temperatures over 475 K, out of the
ground and allow it to boil as it rises to the surface. They then separate the steam phase
in steam/water separators and then run the steam through a turbine. Process effectiveness
of the flash cycle depends strongly on flash temperature. If the flash temperature is taken
higher than the optimum value, the thermodynamic efficiency decreases as a result of
decrease in steam quality. Therefore, the selection of the optimum flash temperature
is very important (Di Pippo, 1980). The performance of flash cycles is significantly
lowered by the presence of noncondensable gases, corrosive materials, and deposits in the
geothermal fluid (Stefansson, 1997). Steam turbines are used with hydrothermal fluids that
are wholly or primarily steam. The steam is routed directly to the turbine, which drives
an electric generator, eliminating the need for the boilers and fossil fuel of conventional
power plants.

1892

A. H. Demirbas

Downloaded by [Universidad Eafit] at 07:33 05 November 2014

In binary plants, the hot water flows through heat exchangers, boiling an organic fluid
that spins the turbine. The binary cycle is economical for geothermal resources whose
temperature is around 423 K. This cycle is not suitable for electricity production from
resources with high temperature for reasons such as special turbine requirements, losses
in heat transfer, and toxicity and flammability of the second fluid (Murathan et al., 1999).
The condensed steam and remaining geothermal fluid from all three types of plants are
injected back into the hot rock to pick up more heat. If the geothermal fluid contains large
amounts of dissolved material that may corrode or deposit on heat-exchange surfaces,
a combined multistage flash and organic binary cycle may offer a reasonable solution
(Wahl, 1977).
Geothermal electrical power is an extremely reliable source of energy. Power plants
driven by geothermal power have much better online records historically than other
electrical power sources. Geothermal energy systems represent a renewable, long-term
source of power (Veziroglu, 1983).

Geothermal Energy Scenario

During 19751995, the world average growth rate in geothermal power production was
9%. The average growth rate in direct use of geothermal seems to have been about 6%
during the last decade (Fridleifsson, 1997). Therefore, the assumptions for electricity
supply of renewables by 2040 are that renewables will contribute more than 80% to the
total global electricity supply in 2040. Geothermal energy is an alternative renewable
potential source of power and will become a more important electrical power source in
the future (EREC, 2006).
Geothermal electricity, as well as heat, is limited to the characteristics of local
resources and reservoirs. Its substantial potential is limited to some parts of the world,
whereas potential for small-scale applications (heat pumps) is given broadly (EREC,
2006). Table 2 shows the expected annual growth rates for geothermal energy to 2040.
Technical exploitable potential will increase during the next years from 2006 to 2020 due
to innovation, whereas the limitation of the potential will then lead to a steady reduction
of growth rates.
Figure 1 shows the global geothermal energy consumption for projections by 2040.
It will be expected that the global geothermal energy consumption will be 86, 186, 333,
and 493 million tons oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2010, 2020, 2030, and 2040, respectively
(EREC, 2006).

Table 2
Expected annual growth rates for geothermal
energy to 2040
Expected annual growth rates
for geothermal energy, %
20062010
20102020
20202030
20302040

9
8
6
4

Downloaded by [Universidad Eafit] at 07:33 05 November 2014

Global Geothermal Energy Scenario by 2040

1893

Figure 1. Global geothermal energy consumption projections by 2040.

Figure 2 shows the scenario by 2040 for share of global geothermal energy consumption in global renewable energy and total energy. According to this scenario, the share
of global geothermal energy in global total energy will be 0.82, 1.63, 2.70, and 3.70%
in 2010, 2020, 2030, and 2040, respectively. Therefore, the share of global geothermal
energy in global renewable energy will be 4.73, 6.90, 7.76, and 7.76% in 2010, 2020,
2030, and 2040, respectively.

Figure 2. Scenario by 2040 for share of global geothermal energy consumption in global renewable
energy and total energy. (Source: EREC, 2006.)

Downloaded by [Universidad Eafit] at 07:33 05 November 2014

1894

A. H. Demirbas

Figure 3. Scenario by 2040 for share of global geothermal electricity consumption in global
renewable electricity and total global electricity. (Source: EREC, 2006.)

Figure 3 shows the scenario by 2040 for share of global geothermal electricity
consumption in global renewable electricity and total global electricity (EREC, 2006).
According to this scenario, the share of global geothermal electricity in global total
electricity will be 0.67, 1.25, 2.03, and 2.81% in 2010, 2020, 2030, and 2040, respectively.
Therefore, the share of global geothermal electricity in global renewable electricity will
be 3.06, 3.57, 3.65, and 3.42% in 2010, 2020, 2030, and 2040, respectively.

Conclusion
Geothermal energy is clean, cheap, and renewable. Today geothermal energy is used
around the world for heating and electrical generation. Geothermal power is more competitive in countries that have limited hydrocarbon resources.
Much has been made in recent times of the issue of global warming, the effect
of greenhouse gas emissions, and the large contribution made by the power generation
sector. Sustainable power generation, such as geothermal power, will play an important
part in our future. Among the drives to generate sustainability, reducing emissions is
most prominent. Three types of power plants are used to generate power from geothermal
energy: dry steam, flash, and binary. The binary system brings some disadvantages for
electricity production, and the flash system is generally preferred. However, if flash
temperatures are not carefully selected, the expected efficiency may not be realized.
Geothermal electricity production can help reduce the need for oil imports, reducing
the trade deficit and adding jobs to a countrys economy.

References
Baird, S. 1993. Energy Fact Sheet. Energy Educators of Ontario. Available at: http://www.iclei.org/
EFACTS/GEOTHERM.html.
Demirbas, A. 2002. Turkeys geothermal energy potential. Energy Sources 24:11071115.

Downloaded by [Universidad Eafit] at 07:33 05 November 2014

Global Geothermal Energy Scenario by 2040

1895

Demirbas, A., Sahin-Demirbas, A., and Demirbas, A. H. 2004. Turkeys natural gas, hydropower,
and geothermal energy policies. Energy Sources 26:237248.
Di Pippo, R. 1980. Geothermal energy as a source of electricity: A worldwide survey of design and
operation of geothermal power plants. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC.
EREC (European Renewable Energy Council). 2006. Renewable energy scenario by 2040, EREC
Statistics, Brussels.
Fridleifsson, I. B. 1997. Worldwide status of geothermal development and international cooperation.
GRC Trans. 21:347353.
Fridleifsson, I. B. 2001. Geothermal energy for the benefit of the people. Renew. Sustain. Energy
Rev. 5:299312.
Lund, J. L., and Freeston, D. H. 2000. Worldwide direct uses of geothermal energy 2000. Proceedings of the World Geothermal Congress 2000, Kyushu-Tohoku, Japan, May 28June 10.
Murathan, A., Alicilar, A., and Ar, I. 1999. An optimization example for electricity production
from geothermal sources by using double-stage system. Energy Edu. Sci. Technol. 3:4247.
Stefansson, V. 1997. Geothermal reinjection experience. Geothermics 26:99139.
Veziroglu, T. N. 1983. Alternative Energy Sources III. Miami Beach, FL: Hemisphere Publishing,
pp. 471478.
Wahl, E. F. 1977. Geothermal Energy Utilization. New York: John Wiley and Sons.