Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Greece: Extend and Pretend Will Probably Not Be The End: Where We Stand: A Tight Calendar What To Expect?
Greece: Extend and Pretend Will Probably Not Be The End: Where We Stand: A Tight Calendar What To Expect?
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
9/14
12/14
6/14
3/14
9/13
12/13
6/13
3/13
12/12
-6%
9/12
6%
6/12
12/11
What to expect?
As we mentioned in our previous publication
Greece: political uncertainties and public debt
renegotiation ahead, we exclude the scenario of
a Grexit given the financial and political
implications at stake for Greece and EMU partners.
Our baseline scenario is that an agreement will
eventually be found with a different mix of
maturity extension, rate cuts and fiscal easing
possible. Luckily, common ground with the Troika
can be found more easily in structural reforms and
the fight against tax evasion.
A few options have been proposed by academics
that could reduce debt-servicing costs:
Nina DELHOMME
paola.monperrus-veroni@credit-agricole-sa.fr
nina.delhomme@credit-agricole-sa.fr
A
solution
unsustainability?
Mr Varoufakis proposal
to
debt
Nina DELHOMME
paola.monperrus-veroni@credit-agricole-sa.fr
nina.delhomme@credit-agricole-sa.fr
Nina DELHOMME
paola.monperrus-veroni@credit-agricole-sa.fr
nina.delhomme@credit-agricole-sa.fr
Annex:
Greece
Baseline Rate
Baseline Growth
High Growth
Low Growth
High Rate
Low Rate
210
210
210
190
190
190
170
170
170
150
150
150
130
130
110
110
90
90
70
70
50
2005
50
2005
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
2005
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
2005
2015
2025
130
110
90
70
2015
2025
50
2005
2015
2025
2015
2025
210
210
190
190
170
170
150
150
130
110
90
2015
2015
2025
2025
70
50
2005
130
110
90
70
2015
2025
50
2005
210
210
190
190
170
170
150
150
130
130
110
110
90
90
70
70
50
2005
2015
2025
50
2005
2015
2025
NB : Baseline scenario characterised by a primary surplus at 1.5% from 2015, average yearly real GDP growth rate at
3%, average implicit interest rate at 2.8%. Alternative scenarios with a shock of higher (+2%)/ lower (-2%) GDP growth
rate and of higher (+200bp)/lower (-200bp) interest rates.
Nina DELHOMME
paola.monperrus-veroni@credit-agricole-sa.fr
nina.delhomme@credit-agricole-sa.fr