WILSON PERKINS ALLEN OPINION RESEARCH

324 Second Street, SE

Washington, DC 20003
405.286.6500
www.wparesearch.com

WPA ID: 15-020

IWV_OBAMACARE STUDY_RELEASE MQ_150302.DOCX

KING V BURWELL
NATIONAL
LIKELY VOTERS
FEBRUARY 22-24, 2015

SAMPLE:
n=967 Likely Voters in states with Federal Exchanges (AL, AK, AZ, AR, DE, FL, GA, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, ME, MI, MS, MO,
MT, NE, NH, NJ, NC, ND, OH, OK, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, and WY)
MoE=3.2%
n=469 Likely Voters in swing Presidential states or swing Senate races (CO, FL, IL, IA, NV, NH, NC, MO, OH, PA, VA,
and WI)
MoE=4.5%
INTRODUCTION: Good evening. May I please speak with NAME FROM FILE? My name is ____________ and I'm
calling from WPA Research, a national public opinion firm. This evening we're conducting a short scientific survey
and we'd like to get your opinions. Were not selling anything and your responses will be completely confidential.
Screener
1.
First, are you or any member of your immediate family a member of the news media, a Public Relations
company, or an active participant with any political campaign?
1.
2.
2.

Yes ........................................................................................................ TERMINATE

No/All other .....................................................................................................100%

Please rate your likelihood to vote in the November 2016 election for President, United States Congress and
various state and local offices on a scale from zero to ten. Zero means you definitely wont vote in the 2016
election, five means you might or might not vote in the 2016 election, and ten means you will definitely vote
in the 2016 election.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.

Zero ....................................................................................................... TERMINATE

1 ............................................................................................................ TERMINATE
2 ............................................................................................................ TERMINATE
3 ............................................................................................................ TERMINATE
4 ............................................................................................................ TERMINATE
5 ........................................................................................................................... 3%
6 ........................................................................................................................... 1%
7 ........................................................................................................................... 1%
8 ........................................................................................................................... 2%
9 ........................................................................................................................... 2%
Ten...................................................................................................................... 91%
DK/Refused .......................................................................................... TERMINATE

2015 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

King v Burwell/Likely Voters/2526/11860

Page 2 of 12

Now, thinking about some people and policies

3.

Overall, would you say you ROTATE approve or disapprove END ROTATE of the job Barack Obama has done
as United States President?
IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE, ASK:
And, would you say you STRONGLY (approve/disapprove) or NOT-SO-STRONGLY (approve/disapprove)?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
4.

Federal
Exchange

Swing

TOTAL APPROVE
TOTAL DISAPPROVE

42%
55%

43%
54%

Strongly approve
Not-so-strongly approve
DK/Refused DNR
Not-so-strongly disapprove
Strongly disapprove

28%
15%
2%
10%
45%

28%
15%
3%
11%
43%

Generally speaking do you ROTATE approve or disapprove END ROTATE of the Affordable Care Act, often
called Obamacare?
IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE, ASK:
And, would you say you STRONGLY (approve/disapprove) or NOT-SO-STRONGLY (approve/disapprove)?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Federal
Exchange

Swing

TOTAL APPROVE
TOTAL DISAPPROVE

38%
57%

42%
54%

Strongly approve
Not-so-strongly approve
DK/Refused DNR
Not-so-strongly disapprove
Strongly disapprove

26%
11%
5%
11%
46%

27%
15%
4%
10%
44%

2015 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

Confidential do not copy or distribute without permission

King v Burwell/Likely Voters/2526/11860

5.

Page 3 of 12

And thinking about you and your family, would you say that Obamacare has ROTATE helped or hurt END
ROTATE your family or has it not made much difference to you and your family?
IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE, ASK:
And, would you say you STRONGLY (helped/hurt) your and your family or NOT-SO-STRONGLY?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Federal
Exchange

Swing

TOTAL HELPED
TOTAL HURT

15%
30%

17%
28%

Strongly helped
Not-so-strongly helped
No difference
DK/Refused DNR
Not-so-strongly hurt
Strongly hurt

12%
4%
54%
1%
8%
21%

13%
4%
54%
1%
8%
20%

Now, thinking about a current Supreme Court case about Obamacare you might have heard about in the news
6.

How much have you seen, read, or heard recently about the King v Burwell case that is looking at whether
the IRS broke the law in the way it applied Obamacare penalties and subsidies in some states? Would you
say that you have heard ROTATE TOP TO BOTTOM; BOTTOM TO TOP a lot, just some, not too much, or
nothing at all?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Federal
Exchange

Swing

TOTAL A LOT/JUST SOME

TOTAL NOT TOO MUCH/NOTHING AT ALL

38%
61%

39%
60%

A lot
Just some
DK/Refused DNR
Not too much
Nothing at all

11%
26%
1%
28%
34%

11%
28%
1%
27%
34%

2015 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

Confidential do not copy or distribute without permission

King v Burwell/Likely Voters/2526/11860

7.

Page 4 of 12

As you may know, if the challenge against the federal government is successful, in at least thirty-four states
that chose not to form a state exchange, about fifty million people would be protected from some of
Obamacare's penalties. Individual citizens and employers -- including school districts, fire departments,
libraries, state and local governments, small businesses and non-profit organizations -- would no longer face
mandates and fines. The IRS imposed these penalties on them when it decided to treat federal exchanges
the same as state exchanges. At the same time, approximately six million people in those states would lose
Obamacare subsidies and likely have their policies cancelled if they cant afford the full premium. Based on
what you know today, do you ROTATE agree or disagree END ROATE with the plaintiff, the side suing the
federal government, in the King vs Burwell lawsuit?
IF AGREE/DISAGREE, ASK:
And, would you say you STRONGLY (agree/disagree) with the plaintiff or just SOMEWHAT (agree/disagree)
with the plaintiff?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Federal
Exchange

Swing

TOTAL AGREE
TOTAL DISAGREE

46%
31%

46%
31%

Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Not sure/Refused DNR
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree

29%
17%
23%
11%
20%

28%
18%
23%
8%
23%

Now, thinking about the six million people who could lose their subsidies and might have their health insurance
cancelled if the Supreme Court rules in favor of the plaintiffs
8.

How important do you believe it is to do something to restore the subsidies to the six million people on
Obamacare who could lose their coverage if the plaintiff wins the lawsuit? Would you say it is ROTATE TOP
TO BOTTOM; BOTTOM TO TOP very important, somewhat important, not that important, or not important at
all?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Federal
Exchange

Swing

TOTAL VERY/SOMEWHAT
TOTAL NOT THAT/NOT AT ALL

75%
20%

75%
19%

Very Important
Somewhat Important
DK/Refused DNR
Not That Important
Not Important At All

54%
21%
5%
9%
11%

56%
18%
6%
7%
12%

2015 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

Confidential do not copy or distribute without permission

King v Burwell/Likely Voters/2526/11860

9.

Many of the people who have health coverage through Obamacare have serious diseases, are children,
single mothers, or are working poor. If they lose their subsidies, most would not be able to keep their health
insurance plans. Knowing this, how important do you believe it is to help the six million people on
Obamacare who will lose their coverage if the plaintiff wins the lawsuit? Would you say it is ROTATE TOP TO
BOTTOM; BOTTOM TO TOP very important, somewhat important, not that important, or not important at all?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
10.

Page 5 of 12

Federal
Exchange

Swing

TOTAL VERY/SOMEWHAT
TOTAL NOT THAT/NOT AT ALL

80%
15%

79%
17%

Very Important
Somewhat Important
DK/Refused DNR
Not That Important
Not Important At All

58%
23%
5%
8%
7%

59%
20%
4%
7%
9%

And if you knew that people most in need would still be covered under Medicaid regardless of what happens
in the Supreme Court and that all of those who would lose their subsidies if the Court ruled in favor of the
plaintiffs make too much money to qualify for Medicaid, how important would you feel it was to help the six
million people on Obamacare who will lose coverage if the Court rules against the government? Would you
say it is ROTATE TOP TO BOTTOM; BOTTOM TO TOP very important, somewhat important, not that important,
or not important at all?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Federal
Exchange

Swing

TOTAL VERY/SOMEWHAT
TOTAL NOT THAT/NOT AT ALL

77%
18%

74%
20%

Very Important
Somewhat Important
DK/Refused DNR
Not That Important
Not Important At All

49%
27%
5%
8%
10%

50%
25%
5%
10%
10%

2015 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

Confidential do not copy or distribute without permission

King v Burwell/Likely Voters/2526/11860

11.

Page 6 of 12

And, if the Supreme Court rules in favor of the plaintiffs and ends subsidies for six million Americans, do you
ROTATE trust or not trust END ROTATE President Obama to propose a good solution to this flaw in
Obamacare?
IF MORE/LESS, ASK:
And, do you DEFINITELY (trust/not trust) President Obama to propose a good solution to this flaw in
Obamacare or just SOMEWHAT?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
12.

Swing

TOTAL TRUST
TOTAL NOT TRUST

40%
55%

42%
53%

Definitely trust
Somewhat trust
DK/Refused DNR
Somewhat not trust
Definitely not trust

28%
12%
4%
9%
46%

30%
12%
4%
7%
46%

And, if the Supreme Court rules in favor of the plaintiffs and ends subsidies for six million Americans, who
would you trust most to fix the problem, ROTATE President Obama, Congress, or the States END ROTATE?

3.
1.
2.
4.
13.

Federal
Exchange

States
President Obama
Congress
DK/Refused DNR

Federal
Exchange

Swing

50%
30%
12%
8%

48%
30%
12%
9%

And, would you trust a Member of Congress ROTATE more or less END ROTATE to fix Obamacare if they and
their family and staff took advantage of the Congressional special exemption from Obamacare?
IF MORE/LESS, ASK:
And, would you DEFINITELY trust a Member of Congress (more/less) if to fix Obamacare if they and their
family and staff took advantage of the Congressional special exemption from Obamacare or just
SOMEWHAT?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Federal
Exchange

Swing

TOTAL TRUST MORE

TOTAL TRUST LESS

18%
67%

17%
70%

Definitely trust more

Somewhat trust more
DK/Refused DNR
Somewhat trust less
Definitely trust less

7%
11%
15%
17%
51%

8%
9%
13%
18%
53%

2015 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

Confidential do not copy or distribute without permission

King v Burwell/Likely Voters/2526/11860

14.

Page 7 of 12

Now, I am going to read you a possible solution to help those who would lose their subsidies if the Supreme
Court rules in favor of the plaintiff, the side that is suing the Federal Government. Please tell me whether you
would ROTATE support or oppose END ROTATION this possible solution, or if you have no opinion either
way.
Accept the IRSs interpretation of the law, and fix the Affordable Care Act by adding a few words to the law
that imposes all of the subsidies, mandates, and penalties on all the states, regardless of the type of
exchange they chose.
IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE, ASK:
And, would you say you STRONGLY (support/oppose) or SOMEWHAT (support/oppose)?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Federal
Exchange

Swing

TOTAL SUPPORT
TOTAL OPPOSE

31%
44%

31%
42%

Strongly support
Somewhat support
No opinion
DK/Refused DNR
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose

15%
16%
19%
6%
11%
32%

15%
15%
22%
5%
12%
30%

Now, I have just a few more questions for demographic purposes only.
15.

In politics today, do you usually think of yourself as a ROTATE Republican, Independent, or Democrat?
IF REPUBLICAN/DEMOCRAT, ASK:
Do you think of yourself as a STRONG (Republican/Democrat) or NOT-SO-STRONG (Republican/Democrat)?

1.
2.
3.
4
5.
6.

Federal
Exchange

Swing

TOTAL REPUBLICAN
TOTAL DEMOCRAT

32%
31%

29%
31%

Strong Republican
Not-So-Strong Republican
Independent/Something Else
DK/Refused DNR
Not-So-Strong Democrat
Strong Democrat

21%
11%
34%
3%
9%
22%

19%
10%
38%
2%
9%
22%

2015 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

Confidential do not copy or distribute without permission

King v Burwell/Likely Voters/2526/11860

16.

Page 8 of 12

(And,) Would you say you are a ROTATE Conservative, a Moderate, or a Liberal END ROTATION in your
political beliefs?
IF CONSERVATIVE/LIBERAL, ASK:
And, would you say you are VERY (conservative/liberal) or just SOMEWHAT (conservative/liberal)?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
17.

Federal
Exchange

Swing

TOTAL CONSERVATIVE
TOTAL LIBERAL

44%
19%

39%
21%

Very Conservative
Somewhat Conservative
Moderate
DK/Refused DNR
Somewhat Liberal
Very Liberal

22%
22%
33%
4%
10%
9%

18%
22%
37%
3%
12%
9%

And, which of the following categories best describes your annual household income? IF REFUSED INITIALLY
SAY: I understand your hesitation. We use this information for demographic purposes only and do not keep
any personal information about you or your family. Which of these broad income categories best describes
your annual household income?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.

Less than $25,000

$25,000 to less than $50,000
$50,000 to less than $75,000
$75,000 to less than $100,000
$100,000 to less than $125,000
$125,000 to less than $150,000
More than $150,000
DK/Refused DNR

2015 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

Federal
Exchange

Swing

14%
19%
18%
16%
8%
4%
9%
12%

14%
17%
19%
18%
8%
4%
8%
12%

Confidential do not copy or distribute without permission

King v Burwell/Likely Voters/2526/11860

18.

Which of the following best describes your own health insurance?

1.
4.
2.
3.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
19.

Page 9 of 12

You have health insurance through your employer or your spouse or

partners employer
You have Medicare coverage
You have insurance you bought directly from an insurance
company, but not through a state or federal Obamacare exchange
You have insurance you bought through a state or federal
Obamacare exchange
You have Medicaid coverage
You have coverage through Tricare
You have some other health insurance (Specify: )
You dont have health insurance
DK/Refused DNR

Federal
Exchange

Swing

54%

54%

17%

16%

7%

8%

5%

6%

3%
3%
6%
4%
2%

3%
2%
6%
4%
2%

Are you currently employed?

IF YES: Are you paid hourly or by salary?
IF NO: Are you a student, a homemaker, retired, or unemployed and looking for work?
DO NOT READ CHOICES

1.
2.
6.
3.
5.
7.
4.
8.
9.

Employed - hourly
Employed - salary
Retired
Employed other
Homemaker
Unemployed, looking for work
Student
Unemployed - other
DK/Refused DNR

2015 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

Federal
Exchange

Swing

34%
23%
19%
9%
5%
3%
2%
4%
1%

35%
25%
19%
9%
4%
2%
2%
3%
1%

Confidential do not copy or distribute without permission

King v Burwell/Likely Voters/2526/11860

20.

Page 10 of 12

And thinking back to the presidential election in November of 2012, for whom did you vote ROTATE FIRST
TWO
Mitt Romney, the Republican
Barack Obama, the Democrat
or
someone else

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
21.

42%
8%
5%
3%
41%

Federal
Exchange

Swing

Yes
DK/Refused DNR
No

25%
3%
72%

28%
3%
69%

Which of the following best describes your race or ethnicity?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
23.

Swing

44%
7%
5%
3%
40%

Are there children in your household under the age of eighteen?

1.
2.
3.
22.

Romney
Someone Else
Dont Remember/Did not Vote DNR
Refused DNR
Obama

Federal
Exchange

White
Hispanic, Mexican, Latino, Spanish
African-American
Asian
Other (specify) _________
Refused DNR

Federal
Exchange

Swing

72%
6%
15%
1%
3%
2%

73%
5%
15%
2%
3%
2%

In what year were you born? RECORD EXACT FOUR DIGIT RESPONSE; RECODE INTO CATEGORIES

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75 or over
Refused DNR

2015 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

Ferderal
Exchange

Swing

9%
14%
16%
18%
18%
13%
10%
2%

8%
15%
15%
19%
20%
13%
9%
2%

Confidential do not copy or distribute without permission

King v Burwell/Likely Voters/2526/11860

24.

What is your current marital status?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
25.

Swing

14%
65%
1%
8%
9%
3%

16%
66%
1%
5%
8%
3%

Male
Female

Federal
Exchange

Swing

47%
53%

45%
55%

Region: PRE-CODE

1.
2.
3.
4.
27.

Single, never married

Married
Separated
Divorced
Widowed
DK/Refused DNR

Federal
Exchange

Sex: BY OBSERVATION

1.
2.
26.

Page 11 of 12

Northeast
Midwest
South
West

Federal
Exchange

Swing

11%
33%
50%
6%

14%
43%
37%
5%

Census 9 Point Region: PRE-CODE

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.

New England Division

Middle Atlantic Division
East North Central Division
West North Central Division
South Atlantic Division
East South Division
West South Division
Mountain Division
Pacific Division

2015 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

Federal
Exchange

Swing

1%
10%
24%
9%
27%
7%
16%
6%
1%

<1%
14%
33%
10%
37%
0%
0%
5%
0%

Confidential do not copy or distribute without permission

King v Burwell/Likely Voters/2526/11860

28.

Vote History: PRE-CODE

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
29.

Page 12 of 12

0 of 4
1 of 4
2 of 4
3 of 4
4 of 4

Federal
Exchange

Swing

13%
16%
15%
18%
38%

11%
15%
13%
16%
44%

Federal
Exchange

Swing

25%
75%

25%
75%

Interview Method: PRE-CODE

1.
2.

Cell
Landline

2015 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

Confidential do not copy or distribute without permission