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LDDC101 DwntwnLouisReport3!27!13
LDDC101 DwntwnLouisReport3!27!13
NuLu, East Side District; View West to Downtown Fourth Street Live District
Project #LDDC101
Prepared for:
Page 3
Contents
Page
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Market Survey Purpose ..................................................................................................... 5
Recommended Downtown Supermarket Location .......................................................... 5
Survey Assumptions.......................................................................................................... 9
Conclusion and Sales Forecast Decision Matrix .............................................................. 18
Three Year Sales Forecasts by Scenario .......................................................................... 22
NuLu Location Demographic Profile Chart...................................................................... 24
Competitor Threats.......................................................................................................... 25
Recommendations and Retailer Candidates................................................................... 26
CURRENT MARKET
Trade Area Overview ...................................................................................................... 29
Competitor Evaluation ..................................................................................................... 37
Current market sales reports .......................................................................................... 38
APPENDIX
Trade Area Demographics .............................................................................................. set
Methodology and Qualifier ............................................................................................. 59
Definitions ........................................................................................................................ 60
Sources ............................................................................................................................. 61
Page 4
Page 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Louisville Downtown Development Corp. has commissioned Keith Wicks & Associates to conduct a market survey of Louisvilles
Downtown retail food market (aerial illustration on the previous page) for the purpose of:
1. Determining the most logical location for developing a new, full-service supermarket to service Downtowns variety of
consumer sectors.
2. Defining the most logical supermarket format for application to the recommended location, and making assumptions for the
development and retail model for prospective supermarket retailer.
The recommended supermarket location is downtowns East Market and NuLu (New Louisville) district because:
Best location for market access and servicing Downtowns mix of consumer sectors:
o Urban residents:
Convenience to east side communities situated within trade area: NuLu, Butcher town, Phoenix Hill,
Smoketown, Clifton and a portion of Highlands.
Competitive position to capture secondary trade from communities outside the trade area: Clifton Heights,
greater Highlands, Old Louisville, West Louisville and Jeffersontown, IN. NuLu benefits with arterial route
accesses to Downtowns hub and the broad scope of communities for primary and secondary business.
o Daytime business sector: 70,000 workers (lunch and secondary grocery needs) plus businesses (catering) in the
downtown market and a growing dynamic with infrastructure improvements and redevelopment projects throughout.
The daytime sector includes the hospital district situated four blocks south and the developing University Nucleus
Innovation Park (medical research campus) at NuLus west end. In particular NuLus infrastructure development
includes planned streetscape upgrades of the primary east/west arterial routes Main and Market Streets.
o Supplemental business from 13 million visitors annually to downtowns nearby hotels, business, healthcare and
education institutions, and entertainment.
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NuLu Images
Page 9
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Conventional and natural market product mix for broadest attraction to the variety of consumer sectors with this market.
Fair value pricing but this formats lead attraction is with the values in shopping experience, product quality and pricing structure.
Page 12
Prepared foods
European bakery
Page 13
2% annual inflation of retail food expenditures which is reasonable outlook in part accounting for increased wholesales
and operating costs.
Page 14
Scenario 1 retailer candidates there are no apparent local or regional independent retailer formats that stand out for visual
fresh store example, but the local Value Market retailer does have the potential to create the store in objective.
Examples of independent, fresh store retailers in other markets
freshseasons.com Victoria, MN
dorothylane.com Dayton, OH
Page 15
There are natural market retailers to consider for the NuLu supermarket. Lexingtons Good Foods Market & Caf
(http://www.goodfoods.coop/) is a long-established and refined cooperative situated in an urban market in proximity of
University of Kentucky. The format is natural market based and with a substantial caf and food bar.
Rainbow Blossom is the local natural market retailer with experience and potential for expanding Rainbows current retail
model to a full-service supermarket. (http://www.rainbowblossom.com).
Page 16
http://seward.coop/ Minneapolis, MN
http://www.willystreet.coop/ Madison, WI
http://www.berkshire.coop/
Great Barrington, MA
Page 17
FYI -- chain retailer examples to consider for NuLu Location 1000 or a discounter at South Downtown Site 3000.
Whole Foods
Walmart
Target P Fresh
Page 18
CONCLUSION
Louisvilles downtown market does offer a substantial market for the suggested fresh store. There is a broad mix of consumer
business sectors where the proposed new supermarket location will need a strong, initial awareness strategy, grand opening and
first year sustained marketing for developing the customer base.
NuLu is the best location for servicing Downtowns business sector and with noting that the east side untapped for convenient
supermarket service. A NuLu supermarket should help spur area residential growth interests and uptown lifestyle.
Nonetheless a supermarkets success in this situation relies on a well-tailored retail model and marketing strategy for an uptrend
fresh store supermarket.
The sales forecasts relate to a hypothetical site in NuLu district because an actual site is to be determined. The assumption is that
the site has supportive retail factors and a significant position in the district.
The 25k sf scenario can be considered a lean & mean size fresh store and produces this surveys best initial $/sf productivity. The
smaller format will rely on vertical merchandising and tight operations but can reasonably manage another fifty percent increase in
sales for a ceiling of around $350,000 or the option for expansion or relocation.
The 35k sf scenario is the more comfortable size for optimizing fresh traits and full-service grocery. It also is best for the markets
future growth. Future growth relates to both a growing workforce for daytime trade and trending new housing growth for
downtown and more particularly uptown for best market share for the NuLu location. What future growth means to this site is that
for every 100 new housing units added near the NuLu location the proposed supermarket has potential for +$2-4k in sales increase.
But the larger store scenario carries increased risk to maintain quality conditions during the initial business development phases
through the first 12-18 months of operations. And the larger store scenario could be challenging for assembling the 2+ acres.
The proposed stores initial business development could warrant upfront expense relief in order to increase expenses for business
development marketing.
Prepared for Louisville Downtown Development Corp.
March 27, 2013
Page 19
Store
Sales
Market
Size Forecast $/sf Share Draw
25000
$210,172
$8.41
12.06%
35000
$283,576
$8.18
16.27%
Comments
1 -- Sales forecast is the weekly average by first year end; 12 months developed business.
2 -- $/sf is an indicator of a supermarket sites feasibility of a site's grocery store forecast in relation to anticipated costs with new
development,
$8/sf productivity is reasonable low end initial performance for a new supermarket, considering NuLus promising growth.
$10/sf is a reasonable matured productivity goal; three years is typical new supermarket timeline to matured business.
3 -- Draw is a variable in this surveys sales model. It explains the percent of store sales projected to come from the primary
residential market, i.e., trade areathe remainder comes from business sectors beyond the resident trade area (i.e., contiguous
neighborhoods, daytime sectors and capturing retail expenditures other than grocery (e.g., restaurants, liquor stores, floral).
Page 20
Distribution
Sales
Grocery
Health & Wellness
Meat
Produce
Floral & Gifts
Bakery
Deli/Prepared
Food
Frozen
Dairy
Wine & Beer
Gen. Merch.
34.00%
4.00%
12.00%
13.00%
1.00%
3.00%
$60,326
$7,097
$21,291
$23,066
$1,774
$5,323
7.00%
$12,420
7.00%
9.00%
7.00%
3.00%
$12,420
$15,969
$12,420
$5,323
Total
100.00%
$177,428
The suggested distributions will be altered upon details of the plan. The remaining scenarios are more so dependent on the
retailer/chain details and be updated upon that identification.
Page 21
Distribution
Sales
Grocery
Health & Wellness
Meat
Produce
Floral & Gifts
Bakery
Deli/Prepared
Food
Frozen
Dairy
Wine & Beer
Gen. Merch.
33.00%
5.00%
11.50%
12.50%
1.00%
3.00%
$82,997
$12,575
$28,923
$31,438
$2,515
$7,545
7.00%
$17,605
7.00%
9.00%
8.00%
3.00%
$17,605
$22,635
$20,120
$7,545
Total
100.00%
$251,505
Page 22
Dec 2014
Sales Forecast
Weekly Sales /SqFt
1st Year
2nd Year
3rd Year
210,172
222,440
235,070
8.41
8.90
9.40
Inflation is 1%
Related Stores
Population
Inflation
Float
Outside Trade Area
163,248
3,225
1,665
0
42,034
77.67
1.53
0.79
0.00
20.00
4,587
3,386
1,842
0
2,454
4,498
3,581
2,024
0
2,526
172,333
10,192
5,531
0
47,014
73.31
4.34
2.35
0.00
20.00
Total
Cumulative
210,172
210,172
100.00
12,268
222,440
12,630
235,070
235,070
100.00
Save-A-Lot
WM Nbhd Mkt
Value Market
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Total
Cumulative
-6,853
-4,236
-17,498
-38,208
-19,185
-41,964
-35,305
-15.16
-14.66
-15.91
-19.19
-31.26
-19.10
-16.73
-205
-126
-509
-988
-522
-1,215
-1,022
-201
-124
-500
-966
-510
-1,193
-1,004
-7,259
-4,485
-18,508
-40,162
-20,217
-44,372
-37,330
-16.06
-15.52
-16.83
-20.18
-32.94
-20.20
-17.69
-163,248
-163,248
-18.65
-4,587
-167,835
-4,498
-172,333
-172,333
-19.69
Page 23
Dec 2014
Sales Forecast
Weekly Sales /SqFt
1st Year
2nd Year
3rd Year
283,576
299,214
315,262
8.10
8.55
9.01
Related Stores
Population
Inflation
Float
Outside Trade Area
220,411
4,204
2,246
0
56,715
77.73
1.48
0.79
0.00
20.00
5,643
4,397
2,470
0
3,128
5,515
4,623
2,701
0
3,210
231,569
13,223
7,417
0
63,052
73.45
4.19
2.35
0.00
20.00
Total
Cumulative
283,576
283,576
100.00
15,638
299,214
16,049
315,262
315,262
100.00
Save-A-Lot
WM Nbhd Mkt
Value Market
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Total
Cumulative
-9,455
-5,840
-23,910
-50,257
-25,591
-57,229
-48,129
-22.26
-21.45
-23.14
-26.93
-46.70
-28.07
-24.34
-262
-161
-642
-1,178
-608
-1,509
-1,283
-257
-158
-629
-1,148
-591
-1,475
-1,257
-9,974
-6,159
-25,182
-52,583
-26,791
-60,212
-50,669
-23.48
-22.63
-24.37
-28.17
-48.89
-29.54
-25.62
-220,411
-220,411
-27.01
-5,643
-226,054
-5,515
-231,569
-231,569
-28.38
Page 24
Page 25
Competitor threat:
There are no apparent, forthcoming competitor changes that would significantly affect the NuLu locations sales forecasts.
It is hypothetically possible that more than one new grocery location is developed in the downtown market, if the grocery formats
are distinctly different. An example is a downtown Target P Fresh and a NuLu fresh store which might co-exist.
4th & Oak, Site 4000 is a closed supermarket that has been targeted for re-opening. This survey judges that there would be little
interaction between a modest operation at that site and the NuLu location because of distance and the commercial buffers in
between. It is an existing 36,000 sf supermarket facility where feasibility is likely tied to Krogers continued position at 2nd &
Breckinridge, Map Key 348, which is an undersized store for the chain.
Construction issues
The proposed grocery stores opening date, operating budgets and business growth timeline could be affected by the forthcoming road
construction for the Ohio River bridge projects and with the planned upgrade of Kennedy Interchange, which might affect traffic
gravitation to a site. Those projects should be monitored and considered with development and store opening plans.
Page 26
Recommendations
Store format: either a natural market cooperative or independent fresh store.
Store size: 25-35,000 square feet, with citing the issues against a larger store (performance potential and real estate).
Next steps toward the development goal:
o Identify the supermarket site and prepare a presentation for the prospective developers and retailers, including
information from this report.
o Determine development incentives for the proposed development and retailer especially with citing the retailers first
12-18 months of operation. Incentives: TIF or significant subsidy for the startup situation and costs; in my opinion at least
$100k.
o Suggested supermarket facility rent (backroom partitions, floor & ceiling treatment and stub-in for equipment utilities
hookup) is judged to be $10-$14 triple net, plus cam.
o Prepare a marketing package including information from this survey and a conceptual plan for the proposed site and
development, to present to prospective developers and retailers.
o Update sales forecasts as needed upon identification of the details from the developer and retailer.
Page 27
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Target www.target.com
Scott Nelson
Senior Vice President, Real Estate
Page 29
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The delineated retail food market extends these distances from the downtown hub at Main Street and Clark Memorial Bridge:
North
0.2 mile to the Ohio River and state boundary which add to separating Indiana and Louisvilles downtown.
West
1.0 mile to the Roy Wilkerson Expressway, limited by the downtown commercial and industrial buffers.
South
1.5 miles to 4th Street, limited by distance, urban congestion and other competition.
East
2.3 miles up to and just into the Clifton community, limited by distance and road network.
2010 Population
2011 Population
Annual Growth
State of Kentucky
43,339,357
43,880,415 (12)
0.45%
Jefferson County
741,096
746,946
0.8%
City of Louisville
597,337
602,011
0.8%
2,469 (00)
n/a
Stable
Butchertown Community
661 (00)
n/a
Stable
4,815 (00)
N/A
Stable
5062 (00)
n/a
Stable
30,000 (est.)
n/a
-0.8%
Smokehill Community
2,116
n/a
-0.8%
Downtown Market
34,111
34,111 (12)
-0.5%
94,341 (12)
n/a
Market Populations
Clifton Community
Page 31
Dec 2012
34,111
$1,322,141
Competition
Float (i.e., leakage)
Float Percent
$1,020,000
Aggregate of the identified seven, primary competitors.
$302,141
Aggregate of secondary competition capturing small share of the market.
22.85 %
P.C.E.
Other Business Sectors
Daytime
$38.76
100,000
Potential
$1,260,000
Workers in the overall market but NuLu is estimated with competitive position about
70,000, with convenience to the health care district and competitive position for
downtowns core business district.
Lunch & secondary shopping sector.
Visitors
13,000,000
To businesses, university and health care institutions, hotels, entertainment and retail.
Potential
Not defined
The mix of consumers is too broad as is the range of reasons for a Downtown destination
visit, yet the proposed grocery store has potential to capture supplemental business
especially from visitors to NuLu and the health care district.
Page 32
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Phoenix Hill, southeast of the trade area and with convenient access to NuLu.
Its boundaries are Market Street to the north, Preston Street to the west, Broadway to the south, and Baxter Avenue to the east.
The Phoenix Hill neighborhood, settled before 1850 by German immigrants, is now a rich tapestry of people and a diverse mix of
business, industry and residences. The neighborhood includes:
It is a neighborhood of mixed but compatible uses. Much of the residential part of the neighborhood is included in the National
Historic District.
Page 34
Clifton, east end of the trade area and convenient access to NuLu.
Unlike other Louisville neighborhoods, Clifton was developed over a period of 60 years, with the first homes built in the 1860s
sitting next to homes built in the 1910s, although nearly all homes were built in Victorian styles. Its residential areas are also
much less dense than other nearby areas like Butchertown or the Original Highlands. The Louisville and Lexington toll pike,
which is now called Frankfort Avenue, went through the heart of the area and was lined with small shops.
The area began to revitalize in the 1990s, as numerous restaurants, boutiques, and antique shops opened up along Frankfort
Avenue. Area attractions include the Kentucky School for the Blind and the American Printing House for the Blind.
Clifton is bounded by I-64, N Ewing Ave, Brownsboro Road, and Mellwood Ave.
The Highlands, with a portion situated in the southeast corner of the trade area; reasonable access to NuLu.
(It) contains a high density of nightclubs, eclectic businesses, and many upscale and fast food restaurants. It is centered along a
three-mile stretch of Bardstown Road and Baxter Avenue (US 31E/US 150) and is so named because it sits atop a ridge between
the middle and south forks of Beargrass Creek. The commercial area extends from the intersection of Bardstown Road and
Taylorsville Road/Trevillian Way in the south, to the intersection of Baxter Avenue and Lexington Road in the north, a length of
3.2 miles. A 1/2 mile section of nearby Barret Avenue also contains many similar businesses. The residential area is separated
from oth
er adjacent areas like Germantown and Crescent Hill by the south and north forks of Beargrass Creek. The middle
fork runs through Cherokee Park, and the south fork divides Germantown from Tyler Park, after flowing past several cemeteries
and undeveloped forests downstream from Joe Creason Park. Due to its large collection of night clubs and restaurants, it is locally
known as "Restaurant Row."[1]
The grid of streets east and west of Bardstown Road are mostly single-family residences and range from working-class
neighborhoods to some of the most expensive streets in Louisville, such as Spring Drive. One of Louisville's most famous Derby
partiesthe Barnstable Brown Party, hosted by Wrigley's Doublemint Twins Cyb and Patricia Barnstableis held at a home on
Spring Drive.[2]
In 2000, the Highlands had a population of nearly 33,000.
Page 35
Smoketown, Louisville, southeast end of the trade area and convenient access to the NuLu location.
A neighborhood one mile (1.6 km) southeast of downtown Louisville, Kentucky. Smoketown has been a historically black neighborhood since
the Civil War. It is the only neighborhood in the city that has had such a continuous presence.
The name apparently comes from the large number of (smoke-producing) kilns in the area during its early brick-making days. An 1823 newspaper
advertises a brickyard in the area as part of the farm and residence of "the late Mark Lampton", after whom Lampton Street is probably named. 9
of 20 brickyards in the city had Smoketown addresses according to a 1871 Caron's directory, although none remained by 1880, as apparently the
supply of clay from under the neighborhood had run out. The abandoned, water-filled clay pits may have given rise to the name "Frogtown" for the
neighborhood, which appeared in print in 1880.
Some residential development by whites of German ancestry began in the 1850s, but due to the arrival of thousands of freed slaves who moved
there from various parts of rural Kentucky after the Civil War, it was solidly African American by 1870. A streetcar line was extended down
Preston Street to Kentucky in 1865, spurring growth.
With its shotgun houses and narrow streets, Smoketown was a densely populated area with a population of over 15,000 by 1880. African
American property ownership was rare, with most living in properties rented from whites.
By the 1960s the area suffered from high crime and unemployment rates, causing massive population loss. Many of the old shotgun houses have
been razed and housing projects built in their place.
Albert E. Meyzeek Middle School is located in the neighborhood. Presbyterian Community Center is located in the Smoketown neighborhood.
Bates Memorial Missionary Baptist Church is located in Smoketown.
Smoketown is bounded by Broadway, CSX railroad tracks, Kentucky Street, and I-65. Since the 1950s, Smoketown has suffered from massive
depopulation. As of 2000, the population of Smoketown was 2,116, a decrease of over 38% from 1990
[1]
Page 36
Page 37
Market
Store
TSQFT
Sales
$/SF
Draw*
$ in T.A.
7 Competitors Totals
Competitors Averages
268,000
38,286
Total Float $
Total Market Potential
$2,695,000
$385,000
$10.06
$10.06
n/a
n/a
$671,540
$95,934
Share
Comments
Downtown retail food trade area: approximate
1.5 mile radius
st
19.40%
3.86%
2.46%
9.45%
17.70%
6.01%
18.27%
77.15%
11.02%
$302,141
22.85%
$1,322,141
100.00%
Aggregate secondary competition including cstores, small independents like First Link on E.
Liberty, & distant competitors.
Downtown market' residents weekly retail food
potential.
Page 38
Dec 2012
34,111
1,322,141
1,020,000
302,141
22.85%
38.76
33,366
34,111
36,955
Current trade area population is 34,111 people and the average P.C.E. is $38.76, ranging from a high of $46.78 in Sector
26 to a low of $28.95 in Sector 12. The total potential is $1,322,141, and the 7 facilities identified are receiving
$1,020,000 or a 77.15% market share. Total float, which consists of minor facilities and leakage, is $302,141 or 22.85%.
The 2012 estimated median income for the trade area is $27,858 with an average household size of 1.71 people. Demographic
makeup is 59.7% white, 35.3% black, 0.0% Hispanic and 0.0% Asian. Additionally, 0.0% of the trade area residents are under
the age of 18, 0.0% are over the age of 65, 0.0% are in college housing and 0.0% are in military housing.
Facility Profile
2012
7
$1,322,141
$1,020,000
77.15%
$302,141
22.85%
$690,000
69,000 SF
$10.02
$13.33
$5.00
Combined, the 7 facilities contain a total of 268,000 square feet with total sales of $2,685,000. The facilities average
38,286 square feet and $383,571 in sales. The average sales per square foot is` $10.02. There are 7.86 square feet per
capita, 0.13 persons per square foot and 4,873 persons per facility.
Prepared for Louisville Downtown Development Corp.
March 27, 2013
Page 39
Name
Save-A-Lot
WM Nbhd Mkt
Value Market
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Total
Average
Total
Area
Draw
60
10
50
45
15
90
35
85,000
325,000
250,000
520,000
530,000
285,000
690,000
5.00
8.13
8.33
13.33
11.28
10.96
10.00
17,000
40,000
30,000
39,000
47,000
26,000
69,000
2,685,000
383,571
10.02
268,000
38,286
Image
65
92
89
118
114
112
111
100
CHAIN SUMMARY
Chain
Name
# of
Facs
---------------------Chain Total-------------------Volume
Average
Size
Average
SaveALot
*Walmart
Value Market
*Kroger
1
1
1
4
85,000
325,000
250,000
2,025,000
Totals
Averages
2,685,000
85,000
325,000
250,000
506,250
17,000
40,000
30,000
181,000
Vol/
SqFt
Avg
Image
Market
Share
17,000
40,000
30,000
45,250
5.00
8.13
8.33
11.19
65
92
89
113
3.86
2.46
9.45
61.38
38,286
10.02
268,000
383,571
77.15
Page 40
-----Dec 2012----Population
PCE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
801
977
785
814
1,229
863
495
976
1,069
977
1,503
1,562
1,181
813
741
1,249
1,604
796
1,013
856
767
898
1,094
708
874
868
1,186
2,382
927
958
1,164
869
1,112
Total
Average
34,111
36.74
32.87
35.36
38.76
42.35
35.25
31.90
42.81
40.77
31.48
31.54
28.95
35.83
35.84
31.66
31.75
37.94
38.86
40.38
42.12
42.14
46.71
44.08
42.66
44.87
46.78
46.22
37.73
43.98
42.87
43.30
41.11
41.20
Potential
29,431
32,119
27,759
31,549
52,044
30,417
15,788
41,781
43,579
30,753
47,404
45,212
42,314
29,138
23,462
39,655
60,858
30,936
40,909
36,053
32,323
41,947
48,220
30,206
39,219
40,602
54,819
89,862
40,766
41,071
50,405
35,723
45,818
-------Float------Percent
Amount
21.74
22.04
19.83
18.31
19.52
14.03
19.43
20.56
20.68
21.43
20.01
22.86
17.27
24.57
19.51
23.69
26.13
20.79
23.61
20.74
25.83
24.88
27.00
24.30
26.06
26.59
27.33
26.91
28.40
25.85
21.98
21.97
16.41
1,322,141
38.76
6,399
7,078
5,504
5,776
10,157
4,269
3,068
8,590
9,011
6,590
9,487
10,334
7,310
7,159
4,579
9,396
15,901
6,431
9,658
7,478
8,349
10,436
13,018
7,341
10,219
10,794
14,982
24,184
11,578
10,617
11,079
7,850
7,520
302,141
22.85
Page 41
2
WM Nbhd
--M.S.--
3
Value Ma
--M.S.--
224
Kroger
--M.S.--
327
Kroger
--M.S.--
348
Kroger
--M.S.--
753
Kroger
--M.S.--
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
2.95
1.16
3.55
1.95
4.89
3.03
6.11
1.97
8.49
10.57
5.64
2.95
16.17
3.63
12.81
7.85
3.59
11.16
7.42
9.45
4.18
3.49
1.17
1.87
.66
.80
.48
.70
.91
.03
.07
.03
.02
1.18
.52
1.22
.70
1.51
.92
1.74
.78
2.25
2.59
1.67
1.19
4.24
1.51
3.61
2.52
2.11
3.83
5.11
8.52
4.36
6.17
2.25
7.87
3.03
5.25
5.24
.49
1.21
.20
.32
.16
.11
.27
.30
.35
.32
.46
.46
.60
.72
.81
1.37
1.73
2.14
1.44
4.71
3.12
5.32
9.01
7.27
16.46
12.56
24.72
29.64
20.99
27.71
37.72
40.91
39.73
.52
6.88
.97
2.25
.88
.56
1.24
2.31
1.26
1.56
1.30
1.48
1.40
3.56
1.48
1.87
3.42
7.99
1.30
13.32
2.45
5.91
19.32
3.45
6.62
3.52
12.56
7.02
35.85
4.10
19.42
5.53
9.26
8.42
46.61
71.89
73.67
76.10
82.33
10.20
24.71
7.48
11.32
5.63
6.08
4.63
13.04
3.61
2.76
4.75
9.57
1.41
6.92
1.63
3.01
4.60
1.16
1.25
.78
1.39
.69
1.32
.33
.47
.24
.25
34.55
3.62
.26
.33
.20
.13
49.40
42.48
52.33
57.16
49.16
62.45
45.58
49.41
36.01
27.25
41.11
37.92
10.64
25.80
12.19
19.17
14.81
6.23
5.11
2.96
4.33
1.88
2.11
.68
.56
.35
.24
22.41
4.56
.07
.16
.06
.04
13.01
6.48
13.99
8.68
17.53
11.55
20.52
9.96
26.66
32.15
21.67
15.37
47.53
19.55
44.67
32.54
20.45
46.10
34.42
41.47
22.62
26.23
9.30
33.13
12.09
20.32
17.46
6.01
7.81
.74
1.22
.60
.40
Total
3.86
2.46
9.45
17.70
6.01
19.40
18.27
Page 42
Page 43
25-35k sf supermarket.
Business Setting
The proposed store is assumed to have significant position in the district and the associate character of the
NuLu business district.
Adjacent Roads
Primary access: E. Market and Main Streets; one-way, two-lane structure. Worn conditions; Market
Street has parallel parking; both roads with main street upgrade plans (streetscape improvement).
Secondary routes are feeder routes to nearby neighborhoods and commercial districts including the
hospital district located four blocks south.
FROM
ACCESSIBILITY
VISIBILITY
INGRESS/EGRESS
North and
South
East and
West
Assumed comfortable.
Assumed comfortable.
E. Market Street
E. Main Street
Assumed to be comfortable.
Overall Rating
NuLu is the markets best location for the proposed supermarket. The
challenge is to identify a site with supportive retail traits.
11,970 ADT.
11,030 ADT.
Page 44
Dec 2012
34,111
1,322,141
1,020,000
302,141
22.85
38.76
Dec 2014
35,248
1,394,568
1,075,671
318,896
22.87
39.56
% Change
3.33
5.48
5.46
5.55
2.08
Name
Save-A-Lot
WM Nbhd Mkt
Value Market
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Fresh Store
Forecast
---Dec 2014 --Volume
/SqFt
78,071
4.59
228,086
456,182
7.60
11.70
253,911
625,561
210,172
9.77
9.07
8.41
Current
----Dec 2012 ---Volume
/SqFt
85,000
5.00
325,000
8.13
250,000
8.33
520,000
13.33
530,000
11.28
285,000
10.96
690,000
10.00
0
0.00
T.A.
Diff.
-4,157
-2,590
-10,957
-28,718
-15,510
-27,980
-22,554
168,137
%
Chg
-8
-8
-9
-12
-20
-11
-9
0
Fcst
Total
Area
17,000
40,000
30,000
39,000
47,000
26,000
69,000
25,000
Draw
60
10
50
45
15
90
35
80
Image
65
92
89
118
114
112
111
85
Totals
* 2,577,687
2,685,000
55,671
Averages
322,211
8.80
383,571
10.02
36,625
98
The low draw for forecast volumes is 29.99. Forecast total includes low draw stores whose volumes are not shown.
# of
Facs
1
1
1
4
1
---------------------Chain Total-------------------Volume
Average
Size
Average
78,071
78,071
17,000
17,000
299,103
299,103
40,000
40,000
228,086
228,086
30,000
30,000
1,762,255
440,564
181,000
45,250
210,172
210,172
25,000
25,000
Totals
8
2,577,687
Averages
322,211
* Chain includes facilities with draw less than 29.99
Vol/
SqFt
4.59
7.48
7.60
9.74
8.41
293,000
Avg
Image
65
92
89
113
85
Market
Share
3.36
2.14
8.18
51.40
12.06
77.13
36,625
8.80
Page 45
Name
Save-A-Lot
WM Nbhd Mkt
Value Market
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Fresh Store
-----Dec
M.S.
3.36
2.14
8.18
14.72
4.59
16.39
15.70
12.06
Totals
77.13
2014 ----Volume
46,843
29,910
114,043
205,282
63,990
228,520
218,947
168,137
1,075,671
Name
Save-A-Lot
WM Nbhd Mkt
Value Market
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Mid-size Fr. Str
Forecast
---Dec 2014 --Volume
/SqFt
73,606
4.33
214,930
428,752
7.16
10.99
236,467
587,838
283,576
9.09
8.52
8.10
Current
----Dec 2012 ---Volume
/SqFt
85,000
5.00
325,000
8.13
250,000
8.33
520,000
13.33
530,000
11.28
285,000
10.96
690,000
10.00
0
0.00
T.A.
Diff.
-6,836
-4,237
-17,535
-41,062
-22,082
-43,680
-35,757
226,861
%
Chg
-13
-13
-14
-18
-28
-17
-15
0
Fcst
Total
Area
17,000
40,000
30,000
39,000
47,000
26,000
69,000
35,000
Draw
60
10
50
45
15
90
35
80
Image
65
92
89
118
114
112
111
90
Totals
* 2,490,579
2,685,000
55,672
Averages
311,322
8.22
383,571
10.02
37,875
99
The low draw for forecast volumes is 29.99. * Forecast total includes low draw stores whose volumes are not shown.
Vol/
SqFt
4.33
7.07
7.16
9.04
8.10
Avg
Image
65
92
89
113
90
Market
Share
3.17
2.03
7.71
47.97
16.27
77.13
8.22
Page 46
-----Dec
Name
M.S.
Save-A-Lot
3.17
WM Nbhd Mkt
2.03
Value Market
7.71
Kroger
13.83
Kroger
4.12
Kroger
15.26
Kroger
14.75
Mid-size Fr. Str 16.27
77.13
2014 ----Volume
44,164
28,263
107,465
192,938
57,418
212,820
205,743
226,861
1,075,672
SCENARIO 3 FYI
35K SF GROCER AS A PORTION OF A DISCOUNTER AT S. DOWNTOWN LOCATION 3000
Facility
Map Key
1
2
3
224
327
348
753
3000
Name
Save-A-Lot
WM Nbhd Mkt
Value Market
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
S. Downtown Loca.
Forecast
---Dec 2014 --Volume
/SqFt
83,602
4.92
258,199
518,019
8.61
13.28
245,349
677,046
234,408
9.44
9.81
6.70
Current
----Dec 2012 ---Volume
/SqFt
85,000
5.00
325,000
8.13
250,000
8.33
520,000
13.33
530,000
11.28
285,000
10.96
690,000
10.00
0
0.00
T.A.
Diff.
-839
176
4,099
-892
-23,858
-35,686
-4,534
117,204
%
Chg
-2
1
3
0
-30
-14
-2
0
Fcst
Total
Area
17,000
40,000
30,000
39,000
47,000
26,000
69,000
35,000
Draw
60
10
50
45
15
90
35
50
Image
65
92
89
118
114
112
111
70
Totals
* 2,714,332
2,685,000
55,671
Averages
339,292
8.96
383,571
10.02
37,875
96
The low draw for forecast volumes is 29.99. * Forecast total includes low draw stores whose volumes are not shown.
---------------------Chain Total-------------------Volume
Average
Size
Average
83,602
83,602
17,000
17,000
326,761
326,761
40,000
40,000
258,199
258,199
30,000
30,000
1,811,362
452,841
181,000
45,250
234,408
234,408
35,000
35,000
Totals
8
2,714,332
Averages
339,292
* Chain includes facilities with draw less than 29.99
Vol/
SqFt
4.92
8.17
8.61
10.01
6.70
303,000
Avg
Image
65
92
89
113
70
Market
Share
3.60
2.34
9.26
53.53
8.40
77.13
37,875
8.96
Page 47
-----Dec
Name
M.S.
Save-A-Lot
3.60
WM Nbhd Mkt
2.34
Value Market
9.26
Kroger
16.72
Kroger
3.99
Kroger
15.83
Kroger
16.99
4th Live Dept St 8.40
Totals
77.13
2014 ----Volume
50,161
32,676
129,099
233,108
55,642
220,814
236,966
117,204
1,075,672
Page 48
Appendix
NuLu Site 1000 Trade Area Demographic set
Page 49
Louisvilles other NBA: Newly rebranded NuLu Business Association launches Strategic Plan 2012,
with a focus on adding more residents
By STAFF | Published: NOVEMBER 15, 2012
Illustrations from the initial streetscape plans for NuLu. (Click to enlarge.)
(Editors note: Cheryl Boyd and Terry Boyd both contributed to this post.
Breaking news the NBA has come to Louisville.
Not that NBA, but this might be a huge step forward toward creating a vital downtown.
East Market District Association has changed its name to NuLu Business Association effective immediately.
Along with the name change comes escalating strategic planning in a NuLu Strategic Plan 2012 that includes a new focus on increasing a close
working relationship with Louisville Downtown Development Corp., a new stress on increasing residential development and continuing the $13
million beautification project.
In the pre-NuLu days, the conventional theory was, when you have enough people downtown, businesses will follow.
But the way its worked out is, on this four-block area, more than 25 retailers and restaurants have opened since 2007 on streets that used to be an
urban dead zone. However, NuLu remains very much an area where the majority of people go home at night to the Highlands, Butchertown, Clifton,
Crescent Hill and the great suburban beyond.
Page 50
The question now is, How does the NBA expand residential housing options in the district?
All this and more was revealed Wednesday at the inaugural monthly NBA meeting.
In the hour-plus meeting, topics range from parking to coming streetscape improvements to a huge TARC announcement.
TARC received funding to replace some very old, high-mileage diesel trolleys with five all-electric trolleys. They are larger than the current trolleys
and will be on the Main-Market circulation route. Also, TARC officials are looking to brand the trolleys. NBA President Gill Holland said some of
the old trolleys are available for sale for as little as $2,500 if anyone is interested.
Trolleys aside, a major initiative of the renamed group and of NuLu Strategic Plan 2012 is to create an inviting residential environment with a mix of
housing options in a section of town rich in restaurants, retailers, office building and art galleries.
The Strategic Plan includes:
launching a Live in NuLu marketing campaign.
working with Louisville Downtown Development Corp. to identify and quantify housing needs and wants in NuLu.
developing a committee to provide assistance in developing residential within existing buildings.
working with existing property managers and residential associations to fill vacancies.
encourage civic participation by welcoming current and potential residents to the association.
In addition to creating a residential boom to equal the business boom, discussion centered on the planned $13 million Nucleus-NuLu Connectivity
Project linking NuLu to the University of Louisvilles Nucleus Innovation Park research building at Market and Floyd.
The project will upgrade streetscapes five blocks from Nucleus at Floyd Street east along Market Street to the Home of the Innocents.
The goal is to physically blend the gap between Nucleus (and) into the resurgent NuLu, which runs from Hancock east to Wenzel streets.
LDDC master plan highlights per Rebecca Matheny, LDDC deputy director.
The RFP for the streetscape design is going out. State officials are going to review the plan as well to ensure federal funding keeps flowing. It will
be a national search, but Matheny encouraged the NBA members to pass the RFP along to anyone who is a designer or urban planner. The RFP will
be open for three to four weeks. It will take three to four weeks to choose firms. By the first of the year, the selected firm should begin on the design
work, and LDDC officials are open to community input.
Page 51
Matheny talked about making side streets in NuLu two-way streets. It is a long process as there are pending lawsuits, and those have to be resolved
before they can move forward, she said. Judge John Heyburn is ruling on those lawsuits, hopefully in a few weeks, according to Matheny.
The current meters on East Market are scheduled to be replaced by solar meters but not sure if they will be changed as part of the streetscape
project. They may (be) replaced before the streetscape project begins.
There are more trolleys to be scheduled on the route and circulating more regularly. Eventually all side streets will be two-way. Main Street is also
scheduled to be two-way like Market. But again, its a long process with many attorneys involved. There is no timeline for the Main Street conversion
to two-way.
As part of the streetscape project, there is a desire for great public art, along with the sidewalks, lighting and alleys of the project. There is a
tentative plan to implement an artist-in-residence program for curated art from Nucleus down to Baxter.
NBA President Holland said NuLu is working with Denver-based Living City Block to look at the deeper process of building the neighborhood. LCB
is a non-profit initiative to create livable cities across the United States.
Two other neighborhoods have worked with LCB, Denver and New York City, Holland said. Because there are problems with the New York project
due to Hurricane Sandy, NuLu could be the second neighborhood to work successfully with the LCB.
Finally, NBA members discussed enhancing the NuLu brand, public awareness and marketing events that are already successful: First Friday, Trolley
Hop, NuLuFest, Flea Off Market and Pop-up Fridays.
For NBA membership information, contact Cheryl at: cheryl@insiderlouisville.com
Page 52
Listen Up Louisville
Listen Up Louisville is blog from Louisville Gaines Real Estate about what's happening Louisville.
Gill Holland and NuLu Making Louisville Greener One Block at a Time
Louisville is known as the Possibility City, and that name certainly captures the
spirit of the people residing in our great town! Of course, Kentuckians historically have a tendency to see things a little differently; while some may have seen grain that went
bad during shipping as a liability, inventive Kentuckians saw it and thought, "We should do something about that!" They came up with a method for processing the grain for
easier shipping, and voila - bourbon was born!
Although he wasn't born in Louisville, there's a kindred spirit to be found in Louisville Magazine's 2009 Person of the Year, Gill Holland. Gill Holland has both an eye and goals
for the future. He recently posed two questions to business students at the University of Louisville: "What are you doing to make this city better?" and, "How do we
make Louisville the coolest place in America?" While these may seem like lofty goals to some, Gill Holland has conviction. Seeking city transformation, he has asked himself
these same questions, and is sharing his vision on how to get it done.
Page 53
Holland knows that Louisville has what it takes to become the next American "hotspot." He refers to the Confucian ideal that "a city with great culture attracts power and
wealth." One way to do that, is to become a "City of Arts and Parks." Holland says, "There's a reason Seattle has companies like Microsoft. The 20-something, creative hipster
wants to go to a city that has clean air, and nice parks. We have tons of nice parks. We don't have clean air, and that's a problem." Some studies have shown Louisville with
the fifth largest carbon footprint in the nation. No worries - Gill has a plan!
The East Market district of Louisville has been transformed under Holland's "green" thumb. NuLu is a great example of the direction in which Gill Holland would like to see
Louisville go. In a nutshell, the idea is to bring art and culture to the neighbor-hood, while firmly embracing the art of sustainability. The centerpiece of NuLu is theGreen
Building. Recycled wood adorns the ceiling, natural light floods the space, and a "green wall" of sedums and ferns grace the downstairs. The building is 72% off the local
power grid, and Holland looks to the day when buildings like this are 100% off the grid. With true Louisville spirit, he is showing that it can be done.
So what is the long term outlook for a greener Louisville? One of the key ingredients is public transportation. A light rail transit system connecting Louisville, Fort Knox and
Frankfort KY is part of Holland's vision for the area. Add an upgraded TARC system, a tax-free zone downtown for new businesses, local farmers providing foods for schools
and correction facilities, and tackling unemployment by becoming a top manufacturer of green energy solutions like wind turbines and solar panels, and we have the perfect
recipe for a thriving, sustainable city.
While all this may seem impossible, remember that we're talking about Louisville, where ingenuity is almost genetic! If this sounds like the kind of city you want to to call
home, call Jessica Gaines of Louisville Gaines Real Estate. And plan to stop by the second annual NuLu on Saturday, October 2.
Jessica Gaines Jarboe Louisville Gaines Real Estate September 01 2010 03:28PM
Page 54
Kennedy Interchange
The Kennedy Interchange is the convergence of Interstates 64, 65 and 71 in downtown Louisville, known as "Spaghetti
Junction." It includes the approaches to the new downtown bridge and adjacent John F. Kennedy Bridge.
The project's plan calls for a reconfiguration and rebuilding of the Kennedy Interchange south of its existing location, which
will include several improvements both in and approaching the interchange. These improvements include:
The elimination of left exiting ramps from the interchange and tight weave patterns between the merge and diverge points of the interchange ramps
An extension of Witherspoon for connectivity to Frankfort Avenue & the proposed interchange and will provide new access to the Butchertown Historic
District
The extension of Clay and Campbell Streets through the interchange to allow improved access to River Road
Approximately 40 acres of additional green space for Waterfront Park and the Downtown Development Corporation
The scheduled reconstruction of I-65 from north of Broadway to Liberty Street is slated to begin in early 2008, marking the start of construction for the Kennedy
Interchange. The completion target for the entire Kennedy Interchange is 2024.
The Kennedy Interchange Design Consultant is Kentucky Transportation Associates, Inc., of Louisville, Ky. Glen Kelly serves as project manager.
Page 55
Development agreement for Ohio River Bridges Project approved by Kentucky, Indiana Posted October 16th, 2012
FRANKFORT, Ky. (Oct. 16, 2012) Formal agreements to govern the construction, financing and long-term management of the Louisville-Southern
Indiana Ohio River Bridges Project were approved today by both Kentucky and Indiana.
The long-awaited project will add two new river crossings in Louisville and rebuild downtown interchanges on both sides of the Ohio River, creating
thousands of jobs in the process.
This is another milestone in an extraordinary, cooperative effort to finally make the Ohio River Bridges Project a reality for both Kentucky and
Indiana, Gov. Steve Beshear said.
In separate meetings today, the two agencies tasked with financing the project the Indiana Finance Authority (IFA) and the Kentucky Public
Transportation Infrastructure Authority (KPTIA) approved a Bi-State Development Agreement and an Interlocal Cooperation Agreement.
Together, the agreements protect the legal and financial interests of both states as they share responsibility for construction, financing, oversight and
management of the Bridges Project.
This is a critical step toward achieving this long-sought project to increase cross-river mobility for commercial carriers, workday commuters and
others who travel between Louisville and Southern Indiana, said Kentucky Transportation Secretary Mike Hancock.
To speed construction and share responsibility, Gov. Beshear and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels agreed to divide oversight of the two major
components of the project. The financing of the project will rely on traditional transportation funding from federal motor-fuels tax dollars and user fees
from tolls on the new and improved crossings. Kentucky is in charge of financing and constructing the Downtown Crossing, which includes a new
Interstate 65 bridge for northbound traffic, a reconstructed Kennedy Bridge for southbound traffic and revamped interchanges in Jeffersonville, Ind.,
and the Kennedy Interchange, where Interstates 64, 65 and 71 merge in downtown Louisville.
Page 56
Indiana is in charge of financing and constructing an upriver East End Crossing between Utica, Ind., and Prospect, Ky. It will close a loop by
connecting the Lee Hamilton Highway (Indiana State Route 265) and the Gene Snyder Freeway (Kentucky 841), opening a vast area to potential
development.
The development agreement spells out rights and responsibilities for each state. It details provisions for moving the project forward to construction
and for long-term operation including:
- Budget and financing
- Environmental and workforce commitments
- Operations and maintenance
- Tolling collection and enforcement
The agreements create a Joint Board that will have long-term oversight and management responsibility for the Bridges Project.
The four-member Joint Board will consist of the leaders of the two states transportation agencies, the Secretary of the Kentucky Transportation
Cabinet and the Commissioner of the Indiana Department of Transportation, and the leaders of the two agencies overseeing project financing, the
Chairman of the KPTIA and the Public Finance Director of the IFA.
Members of the Joint Board, together with one additional representative each from KPTIA and IFA, also will function as a Tolling Body that will
develop tolling policy. The additional members are to allow local representation on the Tolling Body.
Under the development agreement, the states agree to conduct and publicly release a detailed assessment of the potential economic effects of
tolls on low-income and minority commuters as required by the federal Record of Decision.
The assessment will rely on population data, traffic forecasts and public input. Measures for mitigating the effects of tolling on low-income and
minority populations are to be identified and evaluated, with opportunity for additional public input on those measures.The Federal Highway
Administration (FHWA) previously approved the financing, management and environmental documents for the project, allowing the use of federal
Prepared for Louisville Downtown Development Corp.
March 27, 2013
Page 57
transportation funds. Procurement of each states respective portion of the project remains on schedule with contracting teams to be selected by the
end of the year.
Page 58
Whiskey Row, once the center of Louisville's bourbon industry; Credit: Preservation Kentucky
Thanks to a last-minute deal, five historic buildings associated with Louisville's bourbon industry will be renovated instead of demolished.
Philanthropists Steve Wilson and his wife, Laura Lee Brown, along with several other investors, will purchase four of seven threatened buildings from developer Todd
Blue for $4.85 million. Blue will contribute a fifth building to the Louisville Downtown Development Corporation, which in turn will give it to the group. The city will
permit Blue to raze all but the facades of remaining two the buildings.
"It was really a win-win situation for everyone involved," says Craig Greenberg, a developer on the project. "We're very excited. It's a new opportunity to redevelop an
important part of our downtown."
Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer announced the deal on May 9; the sale is scheduled to be finalized in July. "This was just a tremendous example of the community
coming together to save some historic buildings. It's been a difficult issue in Louisville for quite some time, [but now] we've got some great preservation-minded folks
who have a good track record in Louisville."
th
Wilson and Brown, who live on a 1790s farm outside Louisville, transformed several abandoned 19 -century warehouses into the 21c Museum Hotel, which opened in
downtown Louisville in 2006.
"[Wilson and Brown] have been very active in the preservation movement in Kentucky," says Rachel Kennedy, executive director of Preservation Kentucky, which
fought to preserve the Whiskey Row buildings. "We're just thrilled to see that five of the buildings," all of which are city landmarks, "are in the hands of someone who
wants to take care of them."Work could begin on Whiskey Row in two to three months, Greenberg says. "Our immediate goal is to stabilize and preserveSo we
hope to do that as soon as possible after we close on the purchase of the property [next month]."
Because the cast-iron and brick buildings have been abandoned for decades, the developers have years of work ahead of them: "It'll be a significant project,"
Greenberg says. "All of the buildings are challenging."
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METHODOLOGY
Keith Wicks & Associates conducted a field study of the subject downtown market to collect demographic data, and to evaluate the physical market
and retail food competitive structure. Furthermore to identify the most logical locations and sites for the objective of developing a full-service
grocery store to service the market. The field study along with field meetings with Alan ____ and Clark Welch are used to produce a computer
generated current market simulation which is then used to formulate and project sales for the individual tactics for the objective.
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DEFINITIONS
STUDY AREA: Area that contains population that could contribute to the sales of a store(s) located at a site(s), also referred to as the
trade area.
SECTORS: Geographic units of study area.
NODE: The point within a sector that optimizes the origin of the shopping trip for the population.
PULLING POWER: The attraction a store exerts upon the population.
DRAW: Portion of a store's total sales derived from the study area.
IMAGE: A ranking number for each store as determined by the model. It represents the acceptability of the stores in the study area to
the people within the trade area of each store.
P.C.E.: Per capita weekly expenditure for food.
FLOAT: Portion of the potential within the study area that is not captured by the identified stores.
BARRIERS: Physical or psychological obstacles that impair travel and accessibility to site.
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SOURCE DATA
"Number of Inhabitants, Kentucky," 2010 Census of Population, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
"Block Statistics, Kentucky," 2010 Census of Housing, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
"2010 Census of Population and Housing" for Kentucky CPH-5-45, FL94-171 Data, STFIA and STF3A.
Per Capita Expenditure Program, Sector 2010, LOCUS and UDS.
Editor & Publisher, Inc., 2010 Market Guide.
Planning offices for Jefferson County.
City offices for Louisville.
Kentucky DOT and KIPDA traffic counts
2011/2016 population estimates, P-Census.
Internet sources.
Field meeting with Alan Delisle and Clark Welch.