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Educational Researcher 2014 Makel 0013189x14545513
Educational Researcher 2014 Makel 0013189x14545513
research-article2014
Feature Article
Despite increased attention to methodological rigor in education research, the field has focused heavily on experimental
design and not on the merit of replicating important results. The present study analyzed the complete publication history of
the current top 100 education journals ranked by 5-year impact factor and found that only 0.13% of education articles were
replications. Contrary to previous findings in medicine, but similar to psychology, the majority of education replications
successfully replicated the original studies. However, replications were significantly less likely to be successful when there
was no overlap in authorship between the original and replicating articles. The results emphasize the importance of thirdparty, direct replications in helping education research improve its ability to shape education policy and practice.
Keywords: assessment; content analysis; educational policy; evaluation; replication; research methodology
The desire to differentiate truth from nonsense has been a constant struggle within science, and the education sciences are no
exception. Over the past decade, these efforts have been especially pronounced at the federal level, with the creation of the
Institute for Education Sciences (IES) within the U.S.
Department of Education. More to the point, IES funded the
creation of the What Works Clearinghouse (WWC) in 2002 to
serve as a central and trusted source of scientific evidence for
what works in education (WWC, 2013). Similar, alternative
resources have been created, including the Doing What Works
website, which draws largely from the WWC, and the IESsupported Center for Data-Driven Reform in Educations Best
Evidence Encyclopedia.1
The efforts of these and related initiatives rely heavily on randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and meta-analyses. For example, although the structure and activities of the WWC have
evolved over time, a RCT design was originally required for
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Table 1
Replication Rates from the Top 100 Journals in Education Research
Journal Title
Academic Psychiatry
Academy of Management Learning & Education
Adult Education Quarterly
Advances in Health Sciences Education
AIDS Education and Prevention
American Educational Research Journal
American Journal of Education
Anthropology & Education Quarterly
Applied Measurement in Education
Australian Educational Researcher
British Educational Research Journal
British Journal of Educational Studies
British Journal of Educational Technology
British Journal of Sociology of Education
Comparative Education
Comparative Education Review
Computers & Education
Curriculum Inquiry
Early Childhood Research Quarterly
Economics of Education Review
Education and Training in Developmental Disabilities
Education and Urban Society
Educational Administration Quarterly
Educational Assessment Evaluation and Accountability
Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis
Educational Gerontology
Educational Policy
Educational Research
Educational Review
Educational Studies
Educational Technology Research and Development
Elementary School Journal
European Physical Education Review
Foreign Language Annals
Gender and Education
Health Education Research
Higher Education
IEEE Transactions on Learning Technologies
Innovations in Education and Teaching International
Instructional Science
Interactive Learning Environments
International Journal of Computer-Supported Collaborative
Learning
International Journal of Educational Development
International Journal of Science Education
Journal of Adolescent & Adult Literacy
Journal of American College Health
Journal of College Student Development
Journal of Computer Assisted Learning
Journal of Curriculum Studies
Journal of Diversity in Higher Education
Journal of Education Policy
Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics
Journal of Educational Research
5-Year
Impact
Factor
Rank
5-Year
Impact
Factor
Articles
Published
No. of
Times
replicat*
Appears
Replications
Conducted
Replication
Rate
1.05
4.05
0.62
2.06
2.21
3.09
1.16
0.74
0.85
0.52
1.56
1.17
1.91
1.17
0.86
1.04
2.97
0.59
2.61
1.44
1.21
0.54
1.39
0.69
1.81
0.55
0.68
0.93
0.99
0.64
1.65
1.51
0.77
0.68
0.90
2.57
1.31
0.93
1.01
1.96
1.17
3.00
64
2
94
22
20
5
59
85
81
100
40
57
28
56
80
65
8
95
11
45
53
99
48
89
31
97
91
74
69
93
38
41
84
92
77
14
51
73
66
24
58
7
1,296
693
901
635
1,305
1,953
1,117
1,311
373
312
1,039
2,869
3,085
1,459
1,859
2,870
3,070
1,141
678
1,266
270
1,336
1,390
23
463
2,736
871
355
3,360
1,356
7,280
963
161
2,021
815
1,653
3,081
166
442
1,015
216
174
2
0
3
7
18
13
1
1
6
0
4
2
4
1
0
0
10
2
13
2
2
0
5
0
4
13
2
3
3
2
9
4
1
7
1
17
3
1
3
7
1
1
0
0
3
3
4
10
0
0
2
0
1
0
2
0
0
0
3
0
7
1
0
0
3
0
1
8
0
2
1
1
4
4
0
5
0
4
2
0
2
6
0
0
0%
0%
0.33%
0.47%
0.31%
0.51%
0%
0%
0.54%
0%
0.10%
0%
0.06%
0%
0%
0%
0.10%
0%
1.03%
0.08%
0%
0%
0.22%
0%
0.22%
0.29%
0%
0.56%
0.03%
0.07%
0.05%
0.42%
0%
0.25%
0%
0.24%
0.06%
0%
0.45%
0.59%
0%
0%
0.93
1.72
0.72
2.29
1.18
1.76
0.97
0.87
1.23
2.44
1.49
71
35
86
18
55
33
70
79
52
16
44
1,482
2,052
2,512
1,729
4,483
771
2,292
18
786
464
7,758
3
10
1
10
10
7
0
2
2
2
23
1
6
0
4
7
2
0
1
0
0
17
0.07%
0.29%
0%
0.23%
0.16%
0.26%
0%
5.56%
0%
0%
0.22%
(continued)
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Table 1 (continued)
Journal Title
Journal of Engineering Education
Journal of Experimental Education
Journal of Geography in Higher Education
Journal of Higher Education
Journal of Literacy Research
Journal of Moral Education
Journal of Philosophy of Education
Journal of Research in Reading
Journal of Research in Science Teaching
Journal of School Health
Journal of Social Work Education
Journal of Teacher Education
Journal of Teaching in Physical Education
Journal of the Learning Sciences
Language Learning
Language Learning & Technology
Language Teaching Research
Learning and Instruction
Minerva
Oxford Review of Education
Physical Review Special Topics-Physics Education Research
Quest
Reading and Writing
Reading Research Quarterly
Reading Teacher
Research in Higher Education
Research in Science Education
Research in the Teaching of English
Review of Educational Research
Review of Higher Education
Review of Research in Education
School Effectiveness and School Improvement
Science Education
Scientific Studies of Reading
Second Language Research
Sociology of Education
Sport Education and Society
Studies in Higher Education
Teachers College Record
Teaching and Teacher Education
Teaching in Higher Education
Teaching of Psychology
Tesol Quarterly
Theory Into Practice
Urban Education
Vocations and Learning
Zeitschrift fur Erziehungswissenschaft
5-Year
Impact
Factor
2.02
1.64
1.42
1.79
1.09
0.72
0.56
1.50
2.92
1.91
1.11
2.23
1.41
3.08
1.83
2.47
0.91
3.73
1.00
0.92
1.34
0.69
1.95
2.57
0.88
1.83
1.69
0.85
5.46
2.07
2.58
1.16
2.32
3.58
1.93
2.73
1.10
1.75
1.19
1.68
0.93
0.55
1.35
0.72
1.01
1.51
0.85
Rank
5-Year
Impact
Factor
23
39
46
32
63
87
96
43
9
27
61
19
47
6
29
15
76
3
68
75
50
90
25
13
78
30
36
83
1
21
12
60
17
4
26
10
62
34
54
37
72
98
49
88
67
41
81
Articles
Published
728
2,718
1,141
7,749
367
1,715
819
294
2,327
5,784
1,711
3,903
678
347
1,393
288
243
620
1,682
1,270
205
830
669
1,231
11,006
1,324
360
754
2,605
1,033
186
424
1,551
205
195
1,639
372
1,848
7,846
1,956
504
2,827
2,605
728
1,525
82
576
No. of
Times
replicat*
Appears
0
22
2
4
3
4
0
7
14
11
9
1
0
3
13
0
1
16
0
5
3
1
9
5
1
8
1
4
2
0
0
4
6
6
1
12
0
4
3
3
0
18
6
1
0
0
1
Replications
Conducted
0
10
0
3
2
2
0
4
8
4
3
0
0
1
6
0
1
8
0
1
2
0
7
4
1
7
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
5
1
7
0
2
0
2
0
7
2
0
0
0
0
Replication
Rate
0%
0.37%
0%
0.04%
0.54%
0.12%
0%
1.36%
0.34%
0.07%
0.18%
0%
0%
0.29%
0.43%
0%
0.41%
1.29%
0%
0.08%
0.98%
0%
1.05%
0.32%
0.01%
0.53%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0.71%
0.06%
2.44%
0.51%
0.43%
0%
0.11%
0%
0.10%
0%
0.25%
0.08%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Note. Journal 5-year impact factors (based on citations in 2011 of articles published 2006 to 2010) and rankings are based on the 2011 Thomson Reuters ISI Web of
Knowledge. Replication rate is the number of replications conducted divided by the total number of articles for that journal.
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Table 2
Replication Results in Education Journals
Replication Outcome
Replication Type
Success
Direct
Conceptual
Mixed
Total
45 (71.4%)
101 (66%)
3 (60%)
149 (67.4%)
Failure
Mixed
11 (17.5%)
18 (11.8%)
0 (0%)
29 (13.1%)
7 (11.1%)
34 (22.2%)
2 (40%)
43 (19.5%)
Replication Authorship
Success
Failure
Mixed
47 (88.7%)
48 (70.6%)
54 (54%)
2 (3.8%)
6 (8.8%)
21 (21%)
4 (7.5%9)
14 (20.6%)
25 (25%)
Total
63 (28.5%)
153 (69.2%)
5 (2.3%)
221 (100%)
Total
53 (24%)
68 (30.8%)
100 (45.2%)
0.6
48,000
0.5
40,000
0.4
32,000
0.3
24,000
0.2
16,000
0.1
8,000
0.0
Number of Publicaons
Percent
Note. A total of 164,589 articles were analyzed using the complete publication history of the 100 journals with highest 5-year impact factors in 2011. Of the 461 that used
the term replicat* in text, 221 were deemed replications.
0
1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Total Arcles Published
Use of "replicat*"
Replicaon Rate
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1,300% from 30 per year to over 400 (Van Noorden, 2011). The
growth in retractions illustrates the need for making use of the arsenal of tools at our disposal for deciphering fact from fiction. Directly
replicating the results of others is a vital part of that process.
Conclusions
Like Campbell and Stanley (1963) noted a half century ago about
experimental design, replication is not a panacea (Makel et al.,
2012; Pashler & Wagenmakers, 2012). It will not resolve all issues
and concerns about rigor, reliability, precision, and validity of education research. However, implicitly or explicitly dismissing replication indicates a value of novelty over truth (Nosek, Spies, &
Motyl, 2012) and a serious misunderstanding of both science and
creativity. If education research is to be relied upon to develop
sound policy and practice, then conducting replications on important findings is essential to moving toward a more reliable and
trustworthy understanding of educational environments. Although
potentially beneficial for the individual researcher, an overreliance
on large effects from single studies drastically weakens the field as
well as the likelihood of effective, evidence-based policy. By helping, as Carl Sagan (1997) noted, winnow deep truths from deep
nonsense, direct replication of important educational findings will
lead to stronger policy recommendations while also making such
recommendations more likely to improve education practice and,
ultimately, the lives of children.
Notes
1
See http://www.bestevidence.org/aboutbee.htm.
Crocker and Cooper (2011) also point out that an academic
culture that reviles replication makes uncovering fraudulent research
extremely difficult and extends the length of time fraudulent (and all
false) findings stand unquestioned.
3
Although it should be noted that the view of too few replications
is not universal (cf. Bissell, 2013; Ostrom, 1971).
4
The American Educational Research Association (AERA) explicitly addresses the importance of replication and the responsibility of
education researchers to present and preserve their work in a form to
enable replication. In 2006, AERA was the first among research societies in the social and behavioral sciences to issue Standards for Reporting
on Empirical Social Science Research in AERA Publications that note
the importance of replication in Standards 3.2, 5.6, and 7.5. The AERA
Code of Ethics adopted in 2011 also speaks to standards for reporting
on research and data sharing to allow for replication. AERA is currently
turning its attention to ways that AERA and the journal publications
program can further support and encourage replication studies. The
decision by AERA in 2013 to publish AERA Open as an open-access
journal is one vehicle to encourage the publication of peer-reviewed
replication studies (Felice Levine, AERA Executive Director, personal
communication, December 2013).
5
The 2011 JCR Social Science Edition of ISI Web of Knowledge
does not have a calculated entry for 5-year impact factor for Educational
Researcher (ER), and so it is not included in the current results.
Regardless, the replicat* search term indicates 0 results for ER, so inclusion of the journal would not appreciably change the reported results.
6
Only articles that replicated previously published findings were
included in this comparison; articles that replicated only another study
from the same publication were not included.
7
The authors appreciate an anonymous reviewer who noted this
point.
2
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At the time of this writing, the original, redacted paper has been
cited over 1,700 times. We would prefer not to add to its negative
impact by citing it again, although the study can be found by accessing
the cited retraction.
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