MEMORANDUM

TO:
InterestedParties
FR:
NickBerning,MoveOn.orgPoliticalAction
RE:
SurveySays:Warrensmessageabigwinneramong2016battlegroundstatevoters
DATE:
Thursday,March5,2015

TheresagoodreasonwhyleadingDemocratsandnowevenRepublicanpresidential
contenders

aresoundingmorelikeSenatorElizabethWarren(DMA).
Warren'seconomic
populismisawinneracrossthepoliticalspectrum,accordingtoanewsurveyoflikely
votersinkey2016generalelectionbattlegroundstates.

SenatorWarren'smessagehaspreviouslybeendemonstratedtobeextremelypopular
amongDemocrats.InarecentsurveyoflikelycaucusgoersandprimaryvotersinIowaand
NewHampshire,largemajoritiessupportedherpositionsandmessagethemes,andmost
respondentsurgedhertoenterthepresidentialrace.(See
http://front.moveon.org/elizabeth_warren_polling/
)

However,somepoliticalobservershavesuggestedthatWarren'seconomicmessageappeals
onlytoliberalsortodiehardDemocraticvotersessentially,thatsheisfartothepoliticalleft
andwouldhavetroubleasageneralelectioncandidate.

Thisnewsurvey,conductedbyYouGovandpaidforbyMoveOn.orgPoliticalActionaspartof
theRunWarrenRuneffort,wasdesignedtotestthatpremisebyaskingbattlegroundstate
votersacrossthepoliticalspectrumfortheirviewsonWarren'sissuepositionsandmessage
themes.ThequestionnairedescribedWarren'spositions,includingquotesfromSen.Warren
explainingherviews,butattributedthemallto"ahypotheticalcandidateforpresident."

Thesurveyfoundthat,aswastrueofDemocraticprimaryvoters,generalelection
votersincludingindependentsandRepublicansareoverwhelminglysupportiveofSen.
Warren'seconomicviews.

Somekeyfindings:

ThestrongestsupportbattlegroundstategeneralelectionvotershaveforaWarren
stanceisonhercampaignthemeabout
sendingthosewhostealonWallStreetto
jail,with97%ofvotersagreeingwithherstatement
.


Similarly,
94%ofvotersagreedwithWarren'sargumentthatourpoliticalsystem
isriggedinfavoroftherichandpowerful
.

OtherpartsofWarren'seconomicagendareceivednearlyasmuchsupport:
88%of
votersagreewithWarrenscalltolowerinterestratesonstudentloans,and80%
supportherproposaltoexpandSocialSecuritybenefits
,notcutthem.

Sen.Warren'sbiographyiscompellingtovotersacrossthepoliticalspectrum,with
morethan
70%ofvotersreportingthatherworktoholdWallStreetaccountable
andtherolesheplayedincreatingtheConsumerFinancialProtectionBureau
offerconvincingreasonstosupportherasacandidate.

ThissurveyshowsthatthereisanopeningforSen.ElizabethWarrennotjustinthe
Democraticprimarybutinthegeneralelectionincrucialbattlegroundstates.Warrensstory
andvisionarepowerfullyappealing,acrosspartylines,particularlyinstatesthatanominee
wouldneedtowinthepresidencyin2016.

1,000likelyvotersin8statesparticipatedintheYouGovInternetsurveyconductedover6
daysFebruary25toMarch1,2015withamarginoferrorof+/3.4%.Thesurveywas
conductedonbehalfoftheRunWarrenRuncampaignandpaidforbyMoveOn.orgPolitical
Action.Linkstopollresultsandmethodologyfollowbelow.Thesurveywasconductedin
Colorado,Florida,Iowa,Nevada,NorthCarolina,Ohio,Pennsylvania,andVirginia.

Sen.ElizabethWarren'sissuepositions

WithoutanyattributiontoSen.ElizabethWarren,respondentswereaskedwhetherthey
agreeordisagreewithseveralofWarren'spositionsandquotes,andwhetherthatposition
madetherespondentmoreorlesslikelytosupportahypotheticalcandidateforpresident.
Warren'seconomicagendawasextremelypopular,withmorethan70%ofrespondents
agreeingwitheachpositiontested.

Thebestperformingstatementreferencedacandidatewanting"toextendthesamelow
interestratesthatthefederalgovernmentgivesbigWallStreetbankstocollegestudentswho
receivegovernmentloansfortheireducation[acandidatewho]says'Weshouldntbe
profitingfromourstudentswhoaredrowningindebt,whilegivingagreatdealtothebanks.
Thatsjustwrong.'"Nearly9outof10respondentsagreedwiththestatement,andamajority
ofthemstronglyagreed.Additionally,65%saidtheyweremorelikelytosupportacandidate
holdingthatview.

Therewasnearlyasmuchsupportforacandidatewhosays,"Weshouldbetalkingabout
expandingSocialSecuritybenefits,notcuttingthem,"with80%inagreementand2in3
votersmorelikelytosupportacandidatetakingthatposition.Otherpopularpositionsincluded

theBuffettRuletoclose"taxloopholesforbillionaires,"raisingtheminimumwage,and
breakingupbanksthataretoobigtofail.

Issuestatementbyoraboutthehypotheticalcandidate
(stronglyagree/muchmorelikelytosupportin
parentheses)

Agree

Support
candidate

Thecandidatewantstoextendthesamelowinterestratesthatthe
federalgovernmentgivesbigWallStreetbankstocollegestudentswho
receivegovernmentloansfortheireducation.Thecandidatesays,"We
shouldntbeprofitingfromourstudentswhoaredrowningindebt,while
givingagreatdealtothebanks.Thatsjustwrong."

88%(56%)

65%(34%)

Thecandidatestated,"Theabsolutelastthingweshoulddoatthe
80%(53%)
verymomentthatSocialSecurityhasbecometheprincipallifelinefor
millionsofourseniorsisallowtheprogramtobegintobedismantledinch
byinchWeshouldbetalkingaboutexpandingSocialSecuritybenefits,
notcuttingthem."

67%(42%)

Thecandidatesays,"Rightnowwepermitbillionairestohaveenough
loopholesthattheypayattaxratesthatcanbelowerthanthoseoftheir
secretaries."ThiscandidatesupportstheBuffettRule,legislationthat
wouldgetridof"taxloopholesforbillionaires"becausethiscandidate
believesthatthosewhohavealreadymadeitshouldpaytheirfairshare
tohelpthefolksbehindthem.

74%(51%)

60%(37%)

Thiscandidatesaysitstimetoincreasetheminimumwage.Whenthis
72%(45%)
candidatewasachild,thiscandidatesmotherworked"answeringthe
phonesatSears.Thejobpaidonlyminimumwage,butitwasenoughto
makesurewecouldkeepourhome.Nooneshouldworkfulltimeandlive
inpoverty...[But]today,theminimumwageleavesaworkingparentwith
onechildinpoverty.Thisisfundamentallywrong."

53%(30%)

Thecandidateiscriticalofbigbanksthathavesuccessfullyblockedparts
oftheWallStreetoversightlawthatpassedCongress,called
DoddFrank.Thiscandidatesays,"Theresalotoftalkcomingfrom
CitigroupabouthowtheDoddFrankActisntperfect...Iagreewithyou.
DoddFrankisntperfect.Itshouldhavebrokenyouintopieces."

41%(18%)

72%(28%)

Thestudentloanissuerosetothetop,withagreementfrom94%ofDemocrats,86%ofboth
IndependentsandRepublicans91%ofwomenand84%ofmenand81%ofthosewho
describethemselvesasconservativeorveryconservative.

Similarly,expandingSocialSecurityinsteadofcuttingitisbackedby94%ofDemocrats,74%
ofIndependentsand71%Republicans85%ofwomenand74%ofmenand66%ofthose

whodescribethemselvesasconservativeorveryconservative.Asmightbeexpected,
supportincreaseswithage.

AppealofWarrensEconomicNarrative

Sen.Warrenseconomicnarrativeearnsalmostunanimoussupportfromvotersacrossthe
politicalspectrum.Asbefore,thestatementswereattributedto"ahypotheticalcandidate."
AmongDemocrats,Independents,andRepublicans,thosesurveyedrespondedmost
positivelytothestatementthat,"Nooneshouldbeabovethelaw.Ifyoustealahundred
bucksonMainStreet,youreprobablygoingtojail.IfyoustealabillionbucksonWallStreet,
youdarnwellbettergotojailtoo."Virtuallyallrespondentsagreed,81%strongly,and80%
saidtheyweremorelikelytosupportacandidateholdingthatview.

Anequallyoverwhelming94%agreethat,"Theproblemwehaveinthiscountry,andweve
hadforalongtime,isthatWashingtonworksforthosewhocanhirearmiesoflobbyistsand
lawyers.Ifyoureahugecorporation,ifyoureabillionaire,boy,yourvoicegetsheardinthat
placeandwhatyouwantgetsattendedto.Fortheordinaryfamily,itjustdoesntworkso
well."71%weremorelikelytosupportacandidateholdingthatview.

EconomicNarrativeofthehypotheticalcandidate
(stronglyagree/muchmorelikelytosupportin
parentheses)

Agree

Support
candidate

"Nooneshouldbeabovethelaw.IfyoustealahundredbucksonMain
Street,youreprobablygoingtojail.IfyoustealabillionbucksonWall
Street,youdarnwellbettergotojailtoo."

97%(81%)

80%(49%)

"Theproblemwehaveinthiscountry,andwevehadforalongtime,is
thatWashingtonworksforthosewhocanhirearmiesoflobbyistsand
lawyers.Ifyoureahugecorporation,ifyoureabillionaire,boy,your
voicegetsheardinthatplaceandwhatyouwantgetsattendedto.For
theordinaryfamily,itjustdoesntworksowell."

94%(66%)

71%(42%)

"Peoplefeellikethesystemisriggedagainstthem.Andheresthe
82%(60%)
painfulpart:theyreright.Oilcompaniesguzzledownbillionsinprofits.
Billionairespaylowertaxratesthantheirsecretaries.AndWallStreet
CEOs,thesameoneswhowreckedoureconomyanddestroyedmillions
ofjobs,stillstrutaroundCongress,noshame,demandingfavors,and
actinglikeweshouldthankthem.Doesanyonehaveaproblemwiththat?
WellIdo."

67%(42%)

WithoutmentioningWarrenbyname,hersentimentsabouttheeconomicdirectionofour
countryresonatewithvotersacrosstheboard.76%ofRepublicans,80%ofIndependents,

and78%ofthosewhosaytheyregettingahead
strongly
agreethatthosewhocommitcrimes
onWallStreetshouldbeputinjail.

AgreementwiththeotherstrandsofWarrenseconomicnarrativeisequallybroad,though
withsupportmoreintenseamongDemocratsandlessintenseamongRepublicans.Majorities
ofIndependentsstronglyagreewithWarrensargumentsthatWashingtonworkswellforthe
richandcorporations,andthatthepoliticalsystemisriggedagainstthemiddleclass.

Basedontheseresults,candidateswouldbeilladvisedto"tonedown"theirrhetoricwhenit
comestoholdingWallStreetaccountable(unlesstheycaremoreaboutrakinginWallStreet
cashthandoingwhatAmericanswant).

Sen.ElizabethWarrensbiography

AftervotersweretoldthatthehypotheticalcandidatedescribedinearlierquestionswasSen.
ElizabethWarren,respondentswereinformedaboutdifferentaspectsofElizabethWarrens
biography.Acrosstheboardfromherpersonalupbringingtoleadingthechargeforthe
ConsumerFinancialProtectionBureaumorethan7in10foundthemtobeconvincing
reasonstosupporther.

ElizabethWarrenBiographies
Totallistedfirst(veryconvincinginparentheses)

Reasonto
Support

ElizabethWarrensaysshegrewup"ontheraggededgeofthemiddleclass."Afterher
dadsufferedaheartattackandthebillspiledup,shestartedwaitingtablesatage13.
HermomgotajobatSears,andWarrensays,"Thatminimumwagejobsavedourhome
andsavedourfamily...Sure,Iworkedhard,butIgrewupinanAmericathatinvestedin
kidslikeme,anAmericathatbuiltopportunitiesforkidstocompeteinachangingworld,
anAmericawhereajanitorskidcouldbecomeaUnitedStatesSenator.Ibelieveinthat
America."

72%(34%)

Afterthe2008financialcrisis,TimeMagazinecalledElizabethWarrena"NewSheriffof
WallStreet"basedonherCongressionaloversightworktoholdWallStreetaccountable.
AndWarrenledthechargetocreatetheConsumerFinancialProtectionBureau,which
hashelpedAmericansthathavebeenrippedoffrecovermorethan$1.5billion.

72%(31%)

ThoughWashingtonisfilledwithcareerpoliticians,ElizabethWarrenspenthercareer
outsidetheBeltway,asalawprofessorandanationalexpertinmiddleclass
bankruptcies.Afterthebankbailout,sheledanoversightpaneltoprotecttaxpayersand
holdWallStreetaccountable.HertoughoversightofboththeBushandObama
Administrationswonpraisefrombothsidesoftheaisle.

71%(34%)

View
topline
results:
http://front.moveon.org/wpcontent/uploads/2015/03/MOVE0002_Toplines_RELEASE.pdf

YouGovStatementonMethodology:
Wehaverecruitedandmaintainanoptinpanelof1.2millionadults.Ourpanelistswererecruitedthrough
webbasedadvertisingcampaigns,onlineadvertisements,mailandtelephonetowebrecruitment
campaigns.Panelistsareactivelyengagedinouronlinecommunityofexpressingtheiropinionsonavariety
oftopics(see:
https://today.yougov.com/
)andinvitedtoparticipateinsurveysviatheirverifiedemail.The
YouGovpanelislargeanddemographicallydiversewhichisrequiredforsamplingmatching.

Weconstructrepresentativesampleswithatwostagesamplingdesign.First,asampleframeis
constructedfromtheAmericanCommunityStudywithadditionaldatafromtheCurrentPopulationvoter
supplementandthePewReligiousLifeStudy.Fromtheframe,YouGovdrawsastratifiedrandomsampleof
peopleinsimilarsizetothedesiredstudysample.

Atthesecondstage,thesamplingalgorithmbehindtheproprietarysamplingsystemsearchestheoptin
panelforrespondentswhomostcloselymatchtheindividualsintherandomlydrawntargetsample.And,
unlikequotasampling,wearenottargetingmarginaldemographicdistributions,butrathercombinationsof
characteristicssimultaneously.

Thealgorithminvites23matchesforeveryrespondentinthetargetframe.Atitscore,thematchingcriteria
includeagexracexgenderxeducation.Theresultingsamplehasthecharacteristicsofarandomsample.
SystematiccomparisonsofYouGovsampleswithRDD(telephone)samplesandfacetofaceinterviews
indicatetrivialdifferencesbetweentelephoneandonlinemode(AnsolabehereandShafer2010).Itisa
uniquemethodamongresearchfirmsandonethathasrequiredyearsofretrofittingtothepopulationbased
onelectionresults.
YouGovreportsamarginofsamplingerrorforitssurveysbecause,likeallpolls,theresultsaresubjectto
randomvariabilitythatisaninherentpartofthesamplingprocess.Thereportedmarginoferroriscomputed
usingthestandarderrorformuladescribedin

RiversandBailey(2009).
Asnotedby

GelmanandLittle
(1997),
thisestimateisconservative,inthesenseofslightlyoverestimatingthesamplingerror.Becausewe
adjustfortheimpactofweighting,thereportedmarginsoferrorforoursurveyswillbehigherthanthosefor
surveyofequivalentsizewhichfailtoadjustforweighting.Themarginoferrorforsubsampleswillbelarger
andisreportedseparatelyforsubsamplesbasedonsubstantiallysmallersamplesizes
.