Memo

To: Toomey for Senate

From: Jon Lerner
Date: January 25, 2010
Re: Polling in the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Race
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Last Thursday’s release of the Rasmussen poll results was notable in several ways. Obviously, the near
double-digit lead for Toomey over both Specter (49%-40%) and Sestak (43%-35%) is terrific news. But
those data points alone do not show the full extent of Senator Specter’s problems with Pennsylvania voters.

There have now been four consecutive polls over the course of three months, from four different independent
polling sources, that show Specter struggling to receive 40% of the vote.
Polling Source Date Specter vote share against Toomey
Rasmussen 1-18-10 40%
Quinnipiac 12-14-09 44%
Franklin & Marshall 10-25-09 33%
Susquehanna 10-12-09 42%
Average 39.75%
It is a general truism in polling that very well known long time incumbents who fail to reach 50% of the vote
on ballot tests have great difficulty winning. Such incumbents who fail to consistently exceed 40% rarely
survive. That was the case in November with former New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine who was defeated in
his reelection bid. It was the case earlier this month with Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd who concluded that
his reelection prospects were sufficiently bleak to warrant retirement. And, let’s not forget that was the case
with Arlen Specter himself just last year, when he decided to switch parties because the polls said he could
not win a Republican primary – he admitted as much in his own public statements. Specter is so damaged that
he will have a tough time defeating Congressman Joe Sestak in the Democratic primary.
Should Sestak win the primary, he would face a different set of problems against Toomey in the general
election. While Sestak does not have Specter’s 40% threshold problem, as a two-term sitting congressman,
Sestak has comparable name ID with former three-term Congressman Toomey, and yet trails Toomey by an
average of 7 points in the same independent polls noted above.
Further, it is hard to find a Senate candidate anywhere in the country whose voting record and public
statements are more out-of-line with current public opinion than Joe Sestak’s.

• On health care, Sestak not only voted for the Pelosi House health care bill, he complained that it did not
go far enough.
• On cap-and-trade, while several Pennsylvania Democratic members of Congress opposed the House bill,
Sestak voted for it, and again, complained that it did not go far enough.
• On the debt-inducing stimulus bill, Sestak said the $787 billion spending package should have been $1
trillion.
• On bailouts, Sestak enthusiastically voted for the auto bailouts and the Wall Street bailouts, and opposed
every effort to end the TARP program.

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• Sestak has even been an outspoken proponent of trying terrorists in civilian courts and giving them
Miranda rights.
All of these issues were front-and-center in last week’s Massachusetts Senate race. The difference in
Pennsylvania is that the coming primary between Specter and Sestak gives both candidates even more reason
to move still further to the left, staking out positions that are simply untenable with Pennsylvania voters
beyond the Democratic primary.
The general election is still many months away, but all the evidence points to a very favorable electoral
climate for Pat Toomey.