Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Modeling and Optimization of EDM Process 3
Modeling and Optimization of EDM Process 3
com
ScienceDirect
Procedia Materials Science 5 (2014) 1702 1709
,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQ$GYDQFHVLQ0DQXIDFWXULQJDQG0DWHULDOV(QJLQHHULQJ
$00(
(IIHFWDQG2SWLPL]DWLRQRI9DULRXV0DFKLQH3URFHVV3DUDPHWHUVRQ
WKH6XUIDFH 5RXJKQHVVLQ('0IRUDQ(10DWHULDOXVLQJ
5HVSRQVH6XUIDFH0HWKRGRORJ\
6KDVKLNDQWD $SXUED .XPDU 5R\E .DXVKLN .XPDUE
D
E
5HVHDUFK6FKRODU'HSDUWPHQWRI0HFKDQLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ%LUOD,QVWLWXWHRI7HFKQRORJ\0HVUD5DQFKL,QGLD
$VVRFLDWH 3URIHVVRU'HSDUWPHQWRI0HFKDQLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ%LUOD,QVWLWXWHRI7HFKQRORJ\0HVUD5DQFKL,QGLD
$EVWUDFW
,QWRGD\V ZRUOGWKHPDQXIDFWXUHGSURGXFWQRWRQO\UHTXLUHVKLJKSUHFLVLRQDQGTXDOLW\EXWDOVR WKHVDPHLV WREHDFKLHYHGLQ
PLQLPXPWLPH7KLVKDVJLYHQULVHWRDVLWXDWLRQZKLFKUHTXLUHVWKHNQRZOHGJHRIRSWLPXPYDOXHVRIYDULRXVLQSXWSDUDPHWHUVWR
PD[LPL]HRUPLQLPL]HDSDUWLFXODURXWSXW ,QWKHSUHVHQW ZRUNHIIRUWKDVEHHQPDGHWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKHHIIHFWRIYDULRXV SURFHVV
SDUDPHWHUV VXFKDV3XOVH21WLPH3XOVH2)) WLPH 'LVFKDUJH&XUUHQWDQG9ROWDJHRQWKH6XUIDFH5RXJKQHVVIRU(1PDWHULDO
LQ GLH VLQNLQJ ('0 SURFHVV (1 PDWHULDOV GXH WR SUHVHQFH RI PRO\EGHQXP DQG FKURPLXP ILQGV DSSOLFDWLRQ LQ SURGXFWV
H[SHULHQFLQJKLJKVKRFN%\H[SHULPHQWDWLRQDUHODWLRQVKLSKDVEHHQHVWDEOLVKHGEHWZHHQSURFHVVSDUDPHWHUVDQGUHVSRQVHVLQ
('0XVLQJ5HVSRQVH6XUIDFH0HWKRGRORJ\ ,QWKLVWKHPDLQREMHFWLYH ZDVWRPLQLPL]HWKH6XUIDFH5RXJKQHVV UHVXOWLQJIURP
WKH H[SHULPHQWDWLRQ FRQGXFWHG DV SHU / RUWKRJRQDO DUUD\ EDVHG RQ 560 ([SHULPHQWDO GDWD REWDLQHG ZHUH VWDWLVWLFDOO\
DQDO\]HG DQG WKH RSWLPL]HG VHWV RI YDOXHV RI WKH YDULRXV SDUDPHWHUV ZHUH GHSLFWHG ,W ZDV REVHUYHG WKDW ZLWK WKHVH YDOXHV
LPSURYHPHQWLQ VXUIDFH URXJKQHVVZHUHREWDLQHG $FRQILUPDWLRQWHVWZDVFDUULHGRXWWRFKHFNWKHGHYLDWLRQLQVXUIDFHURXJKQHVV
YDOXHRIWKHSUHGLFWHGPRGHOZLWKH[SHULPHQWDOGDWDDQGLWZDVREVHUYHGWKDWWKHHUURUZDVZLWKLQ
&RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU7HO
(PDLODGGUHVV NNXPDU#ELWPHVUDDFLQ
2211-8128 2014 Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of Organizing Committee of AMME 2014
doi:10.1016/j.mspro.2014.07.359
1703
,QWURGXFWLRQ
(OHFWULFDO 'LVFKDUJH 0DFKLQLQJ ('0 LV D QRQWUDGLWLRQDO PDFKLQLQJ SURFHVV ZKLFK LV PRUH HIILFLHQW WKDQ
WUDGLWLRQDOPDFKLQLQJSURFHVVGXHWRHDVHRIPDFKLQLQJRIGLIILFXOWWRPDFKLQHPDWHULDOVZLWKFRPSOH[VKDSHV('0
LVXVHGIRUPDFKLQLQJRIWRXJKHQHGDQGKLJKVWUHQJWKFRQGXFWLYHPDWHULDOVZKLFKLVKDUGHQRXJKWRFXWE\WUDGLWLRQDO
SURFHVVHV ,W KDV PDQ\ DSSOLFDWLRQV LQ PDQXIDFWXULQJ VHFWRUV HVSHFLDOO\ LQGXVWULHV OLNH DHURVSDFH RUGLQDQFH
DXWRPRELOH DQG JHQHUDO HQJLQHHULQJ >5DPDNULVKQD DQG .DUXQDPRRUWK\ @ ('0 UHPRYHV WKH PDWHULDO E\
HURVLRQ SURFHGXUH6HULHVRIFRQVWDQWO\UHSHDWLQJHOHFWULFDOGLVFKDUJHVHPHUJHGEHWZHHQWKHWRRODQGWKHZRUNSLHFH
LQ GLHOHFWULF IOXLG DQG UHPRYH WKH PDWHULDO :KHQ FXUUHQW FRQGXFWLQJ ZLUHV DSSURDFKHV HDFK RWKHU DQ DUF LV
JHQHUDWHG2QFORVHH[DPLQDWLRQLWFDQEHREVHUYHGWKDWVPDOOSRUWLRQRIPHWDOKDVEHHQHURGHG $0F*HRXJKLQ
KLVERRN$GYDQFHG0HWKRGVRI0DFKLQLQJ UHIHUUHG WKDW WKLVSKHQRPHQRQ ZDVILUVWSHUFHLYHGE\6LU-RVHSK
3ULHVWO\DVHDUO\DV%5/D]DUHQNRGLVFRYHUHGLWLQWKDWSUHFLVLRQPDFKLQLQJFDQEHDFKLHYHGE\('0
>/D]DUHQNR .XQLHGD HW DO @ ,W LV DQ DOWHUQDWLYH PDFKLQLQJ PHWKRG ZKLFK LV QRW GHIHDWHG E\ WKH
PHFKDQLFDOVWUHQJWKRIPDWHULDOV DVWKHUHLVQRSK\VLFDOFRQWDFWEHWZHHQWKHZRUNSLHFHDQGWRRO 7KLV KDV PDGHLWDV
RQHRIWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWDQGZLGHO\XVHGSURGXFWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVLQPDQXIDFWXULQJLQGXVWULHV
7KH SURFHVV FRQVLVWV RI D VKDSHG WRRO HOHFWURGH ZRUNSLHFH PDWHULDOV ZKLFK DUH FRQQHFWHG WR '& SRZHU
VXSSO\DQGSODFHGLQGLHOHFWULFIOXLGV 7KHSXOVHUDWHFXUUHQWDQGYROWDJHVDUHWKH LQSXW SDUDPHWHUV>.XQLHGDHWDO
@7KH GLHOHFWULF IOXLG SHUIRUPV PXOWL IXQFWLRQVOLNH WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ RI UHPRYHG SDUWLFOHVLQFUHDVHWKHHQHUJ\
GHQVLW\ LQ SODVPD FKDQQHO UHFRQGLWLRQLQJ RI WKH GLHOHFWULF VWUHQJWK DQG FRROV RI WKH HOHFWURGH DQG ZRUNSLHFH
>5HKEHLQHWDO@'LHOHFWULFIOXLGLVSXPSHGWKURXJKWKHDUFJDSWRIOXVKDZD\WKHHURGHGSDUWLFOHVEHWZHHQWKH
ZRUNSLHFHDQGWKHHOHFWURGH0RVWFRPPRQGLHOHFWULFIOXLGVDUHPLQHUDORLONHURVHQHSDUDIILQGLVWLOOHGZDWHU HWF
5HFHQWWUHQGVLQYROYHWKHXVHRIFRORUDQGORZYLVFRVLW\IOXLGVWRPDNHFOHDQLQJHDVLHU>.XQLHGDHWDO@
('0 FDQ FXW LQWULFDWH FRQWRXUV RU FDYLWLHV LQ SUHKDUGHQHG VWHHO RU PHWDO DOOR\ 7LWDQLXP +DVWHOOR\ ,QFRQHO
ZLWKRXWWKHQHHGIRUKHDWWUHDWPHQWWRVRIWHQDQGUHKDUGHQWKHPDWHULDOV7KHSURFHVVKDVDOVREHHQDSSOLHGWRVKDSH
WKHSRO\FU\VWDOOLQHGLDPRQGWRROVDQGPDFKLQHRIPLFUR KROHVDQG'PLFURFDYLWLHV>+RDQG1HZPDQ @2Q
WKHDQDO\WLFDOIURQWVLQFHWKHHDUO\VHYHQWLHVUHVHDUFKHUVKDYHDWWHPSWHGWRPRGHOWKHHOHFWULF GLVFKDUJHSKHQRPHQD
SODVPD FKDQQHO DQG WKH PHFKDQLVP RI FDWKRGH DQG DQRGH HURVLRQ LQ WKH ('0 SURFHVV >5DPDNULVKQD DQG
.DUXQDPRRUWK\ <HRHW DO @ 'LIIHUHQW WKHUPDO PRGHOV KDYH EHHQ SURSRVHG E\ WDNLQJ D PLFURVFRSLF
YLHZRIWKHSURFHVVFRQVLGHULQJWKHVSDUNDQGLWVVXUURXQGLQJDUHD>-RVKLDQG3DQGH@7KHUHSRUWHGWKHUPR
SK\VLFDO PRGHOV RI WKH ('0 SURFHVV KRZHYHU VLJQLILFDQWO\ RYHU SUHGLFW WKH SURFHVV UHVSRQVHV VXFK DV PDWHULDO
UHPRYDO UDWH 055 DQG VXUIDFH URXJKQHVV 7KLV LV SULPDULO\ GXH WR YDULRXV VLPSOLI\LQJ DVVXPSWLRQV VXFK DV
XQLIRUP KHDWVRXUFH><HRHWDO@SRLQWKHDWVRXUFH>'L%LWRQWRHWDO@ FRQVWDQWKHDWVRXUFHUDGLXV>3DQGD
DQG%KRL$OOHQDQG&KHQ@ IRUDOOGLVFKDUJHFRQGLWLRQVDQGFRQVWDQWWKHUPRSK\VLFDOSURSHUWLHVRYHU
WKHWHPSHUDWXUHUDQJH><HRHWDO'L%LWRQWRHWDO@7KHVHVLPSOLI\LQJDVVXPSWLRQVGRQRWVLPXODWHWKH
UHDOOLIHFRQGLWLRQVDQGWKXVVHYHUHO\OLPLWWKHDSSOLFDELOLW\RIWKHUHVXOWV9HU\VFDQWOLWHUDWXUHKDVEHHQUHSRUWHGRQ
WKHVWXG\RIVKDSHRIWKHFUDWHUSURGXFHGDWWKHFDWKRGHDQRGHVXUIDFHDIWHUWKHVSDUN $QHHGWKXVH[LVWVWRGHYHORS
DQXPHULFDOPRGHOWRSUHGLFWDFFXUDWHO\WKHFUDWHUDQGDVVRFLDWHG VXUIDFHURXJKQHVV E\PRGLI\LQJWKHDERYHVWDWHG
DVVXPSWLRQV $ &HQWUDO &RPSRVLWH 'HVLJQ &&' IRU FRPELQDWLRQ RI YDULDEOHV DQG 5HVSRQVH 6XUIDFH 0HWKRG
560 KDYH EHHQ XVHG WR DQDO\]H WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI ('0 SURFHVV >,TEDO DQG .KDQ @ 2QH RI WKH PRVW
SRSXODUUHVSRQVHVXUIDFHGHVLJQVLVWKHFHQWUDOFRPSRVLWHGHVLJQ &&' GXHWR%R[DQG:LOVRQ
6XUIDFHURXJKQHVVLVXVXDOO\GHILQHGDV WKHGHYLDWLRQRIDVXUIDFHIURPDQLGHDOOHYHODQGLVGHILQHGDFFRUGLQJWR
LQWHUQDWLRQDO VWDQGDUG ,62 7KH DULWKPHWLF PHDQ VXUIDFH URXJKQHVV 5D LV GHILQHG DV GHYLDWLRQ RI D
VXUIDFHIURPDWKHRUHWLFDOFHQWHUOLQH 5PHDQ RYHUDPHDVXULQJOHQJWK/P )LJ6XUIDFHURXJKQHVVLVJHQHUDOO\
GHSHQGHQW RQ FXWWLQJ WRRO JHRPHWU\ WRRO PDWHULDO ZRUNSLHFH JHRPHWU\ ZRUNSLHFH PDWHULDO FXWWLQJ FRQGLWLRQV
FXWWHUUXQRXWPDFKLQHWRROULJLGLW\HWF>$ODXGGLQ HWDO @
1704
)LJ$ULWKPDWLFPHDQVXUIDFHURXJKQHVV5D
1RPHQFODWXUH
$
3XOVH2QWLPH 6
%
3XOVH2IIWLPH 6
&
'LVFKDUJH&XUUHQW $PS
'*DS9ROWDJH 9ROW
5D6XUIDFH5RXJKQHVV P
5HVSRQVH6XUIDFH0HWKRGRORJ\
5HVSRQVH VXUIDFH PHWKRGRORJ\ 560 >.KXUL@ FRPSULVHV D JURXS RI VWDWLVWLFDO WHFKQLTXHV IRU HPSLULFDO
PRGHOEXLOGLQJDQGPRGHOH[SORLWDWLRQ,WKHOSVWKHH[SHULPHQWHUWRILQGWKHRSWLPXPVHWWLQJIRUWKHLQSXWYDULDEOHV
WKDWRSWLPL]HVWKHSUHGLFWHGUHVSRQVHWKHUHVSRQVHVXUIDFHIRUWKHYDULDQFHFRQVLVWVRIDVHFRQGGHJUHHSRO\QRPLDO
ZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHFRQWUROODEOHIDFWRUV DVFDOFXODWHGE\WKHHTXDWLRQ,W LV DOVRXVHGWRLPSURYHWKHUREXVWQHVVRI
WKHSURFHVVDQGWKHSURGXFW
T
L
L
L
ER E L F L E LL F L
LM
FL F M
M L
F F
> F F @ F F
T
T
DUHWKHOHYHORIWKHIDFWRUVFRGHGWR
:KHUHLVWKHH[SHFWHGUHVSRQVHJLYHQ
EH DQG UHVSRQVHV IURP GLIIHUHQW UXQV DUH DVVXPHG WR EH LQGHSHQGHQW ZLWK FRQVWDQW YDULDQFH >$OOHQ
@
([SHULPHQWDO6HWXS
([SHULPHQWVZHUHFRQGXFWHGRQGLHVLQNLQJ('0PDFKLQH(070DQXIDFWXUHU(OHFWURQLFD0DFKLQH7RROV
%RWK(OHFWURGHDQGZRUNSLHFHPDWHULDOLGHQWLILFDWLRQDQGFRPSRVLWLRQ ZHUH DVFHUWDLQHG XVLQJ(QHUJ\'LVSHUVLYH;
5D\ 6SHFWURVFRS\ ('; VSHFLILFDWLRQ 5HVROXWLRQ QP DW .9 7KH WRRO HOHFWURGH SRVLWLYH SRODULW\ RI
HOHFWURO\WLFSXUHFRSSHUZLWKPP[PPVL]HDQGZRUNSLHFHPDWHULDO(1ZLWKURXQGF\OLQGHURIGLDPHWHU
PP DQG RI WKLFNQHVV PP ZDV XVHG &RPPHUFLDO JUDGH ('0 RLO LV XVHG DV GLHOHFWULF IOXLG :LWK WKH KHOS RI
'HVLJQRIH[SHULPHQW'2(>0,1,7$%,QF0RQWJRPHU\@ WKUHHOHYHOVIRXUSDUDPHWHUV WHVWV
ZHUH FRQGXFWHG 7KH FHQWUDO FRPSRVLWH GHVLJQ ZDV XVHG VLQFH LW JLYHV D FRPSDUDWLYHO\ DFFXUDWH SUHGLFWLRQ RI DOO
UHVSRQVHYDULDEOHDYHUDJHVUHODWHGWRTXDQWLWLHVPHDVXUHGGXULQJH[SHULPHQWDWLRQ7KHSURFHVVYDULDEOHVZLWKWKHLU
YDOXHVRQGLIIHUHQWOHYHOVDUHOLVWHGLQWDEOH
1705
&RGLQJ
/HYHO
3XOVH217LPH7RQ
$
3XOVH2))WLPH7RII
'LVFKDUJHFXUUHQW,S
&
*DSYROWDJH9
'
$QDO\VLV RI YDULDQFH $129$ ZDV SHUIRUPHG RQ EDODQFHG GDWD IRU ZLGH YDULHW\ RI H[SHULPHQWDO GHVLJQ
$129$FDOFXODWHVWKH )UDWLR ZKLFKLVWKHUDWLREHWZHHQWKHUHJUHVVLRQ PHDQ VTXDUH DQGWKH PHDQVTXDUHHUURU
7KH)UDWLR LV DOVRFDOOHGWKHYDULDQFHUDWLR ZKLFKLQRWKHUWHUPVUHIHUV WRWKHHIIHFWRI DIDFWRUDQGYDULDQFHGXHWR
WKH HUURU WHUP >$OOHQ @ ,I WKH FDOFXODWHG YDOXH RI )UDWLR LV KLJKHU WKDQ WKH WDEXODWHG YDOXH RI )UDWLR IRU
URXJKQHVVWKHQWKHPRGHOLVDGHTXDWHDWGHVLUHGHUURUWHUPOHYHOWRUHSUHVHQWWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQPDFKLQLQJ
UHVSRQVHDQGWKHPDFKLQLQJSDUDPHWHUV 7KHVHDQDO\VHV ZHUH GRQHXVLQJ0,1,7$%VRIWZDUH >0,1,7$%,QF
VSHFLDOLVHGIRUWKHSXUSRVH
7KH GHVLJQ RI H[SHULPHQW ZDV FUHDWHG XVLQJ WKH VRIWZDUH DQG WKH H[SHULPHQW ZDV SHUIRUPHG DFFRUGLQJO\ 7KH
VXUIDFHURXJKQHVVZDVPHDVXUHGXVLQJ7DO\VXUI0DNH 7D\ORU+REVRQ8.DQGWDEXODWHGLQWDEOH
7DEOH([SHULPHQWVUHVXOWV
5XQ2UGHU
$
%
&
'
5D P
1706
5HVXOWDQG'LVFXVVLRQ
$V GLVFXVVHG H[SHULPHQWV DUH FDUULHG RXW YDU\LQJ WKH SURFHVV SDUDPHWHUV SXOVH RQ WLPH SXOVH RII WLPH SHDN
FXUUHQWDQGYROWDJHLQ('0RI(1WRROVWHHO7KHH[SHULPHQWVDUHFRQGXFWHGEDVHGRQFHQWUDOFRPSRVLWHGHVLJQ
&&' FRQVLVWLQJ QXPEHUV RI H[SHULPHQWV ([SHULPHQWDO UHVXOWV IRU VXUIDFH URXJKQHVV SDUDPHWHU 5D DUH
SUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOH7KHVHH[SHULPHQWDOUHVXOWVDUHXVHGIRUWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIDQHPSLULFDOPRGHOXVLQJ 560
560DGRSWVERWKPDWKHPDWLFDODQGVWDWLVWLFDOWHFKQLTXHVZKLFKDUHXVHIXO IRUWKHPRGHOLQJDQGDQDO\VLVRISUREOHPV
LQZKLFKDUHVSRQVHRILQWHUHVWLVLQIOXHQFHGE\VHYHUDOYDULDEOHVDQGWKHREMHFWLYHLVWRRSWLPL]HWKHUHVSRQVH560
KHOSV LQ DQDO\]LQJ WKH LQIOXHQFH RI WKH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV RQ D VSHFLILF GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH UHVSRQVH E\
TXDQWLI\LQJWKHUHODWLRQVKLSVDPRQJVWRQHRUPRUHPHDVXUHGUHVSRQVHVDQGWKHYLWDOLQSXWIDFWRUV7KHPDWKHPDWLFDO
PRGHOVWKXVGHYHORSHGUHODWLQJWKHPDFKLQLQJUHVSRQVHVDQGWKHLUIDFWRUVIDFLOLWDWHWKHRSWLPL]DWLRQRIWKHPDFKLQLQJ
SURFHVV 8VXDOO\ZKHQWKHUHVSRQVHIXQFWLRQLVQRWNQRZQRUQRQOLQHDUDVHFRQGRUGHUPRGHOLVXWLOL]HG)RUWKH
GHYHORSPHQW RI VHFRQG RUGHU UHVSRQVH PRGHO 0LQLWDE VRIWZDUH LV XVHG 8VLQJ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO UHVXOWV IRU 5D
UHVSRQVH VXUIDFH PRGHO LV GHYHORSHG DQG DQDO\VLV RI YDULDQFH $129$ IRU WKH DGHTXDF\ RI WKH PRGHO LV WKHQ
SHUIRUPHGLQWKHVXEVHTXHQW VWHS7KH)UDWLRLVFDOFXODWHGIRUOHYHORIFRQILGHQFH7KHYDOXH ZKLFKDUHOHVV
WKDQDUHFRQVLGHUHGVLJQLILFDQWDQGWKHYDOXHVJUHDWHUWKDQDUHQRW VLJQLILFDQWDQGWKHPRGHOLVDGHTXDWHWR
UHSUHVHQW WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ PDFKLQLQJ UHVSRQVH DQG WKH PDFKLQLQJ SDUDPHWHUV ,W LV REVHUYHG IURP WKH
DGHTXDF\ WHVW E\ $129$ WKDW OLQHDU WHUP $ SXOVH RQ WLPH % SXOVH RII WLPH & GLVFKDUJH FXUUHQW DQG '
9ROWDJH DQG VTXDUH WHUPV DUH VLJQLILFDQW 7KH OHYHOV RI VLJQLILFDQW DUH GHSLFWHG LQ 7DEOH 7KH ILW VXPPDU\
UHFRPPHQGVWKDWWKHTXDGUDWLFPRGHOLVVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWIRUDQDO\VLVRI5D)RUWKHDSSURSULDWHILWWLQJRI5D
WKH QRQVLJQLILFDQWWHUPVSYDOXHLV JUHDWHUWKDQDUHHOLPLQDWHGE\EDFNZDUGHOLPLQDWLRQSURFHVV7DEOH
$QDO\VLVRIYDULDQFH$129$LVXVHGWRFKHFNWKHDGHTXDF\RIWKHVHFRQGRUGHUPRGHO7KH$129$WDEOHIRUWKH
FXUWDLOHGTXDGUDWLFPRGHOIRU5DLVVKRZQLQ7DEOH ,WFDQEHDSSUHFLDWHGWKDWWKH3YDOXHLVOHVVWKDQ7KH
DQDO\VLVRIYDULDQFH$129$DQGWKH)UDWLRWHVWKDYHEHHQSHUIRUPHGWRFKHFNWKHDGHTXDF\RIWKHPRGHOVDVZHOO
DVWKHVLJQLILFDQFHRIWKHLQGLYLGXDOSDUDPHWHUV7KHUHGXFHGPRGHOUHVXOWVLQGLFDWHWKDWWKHPRGHOLVVLJQLILFDQWDQG
DGHTXDWHWRSUHGLFWWKHUHVSRQVHDWFRQILGHQFHOHYHO
7DEOH )RU5D%HIRUH(OLPLQDWLRQ
7HUP
&RHI
6(&RHI
7
3
&RQVWDQW
$
%
&
'
$
$
%
%
&
&
'
'
$
%
$
&
$
'
%
&
%
'
&
'
6 35(66
56T 56TSUHG 56TDGM
$129$WDEOHDIWHUHOLPLQDWLRQRIQRQVLJQLILFDQW IDFWRUVLVSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOH5HVXOWVIRUWKHUHGXFHGPRGHO
LQGLFDWHWKDWWKHPRGHOLVVLJQLILFDQWDQGODFNRIILWLVQRQVLJQLILFDQWSYDOXHLVOHVVWKDQ$IWHUHOLPLQDWLQJWKH
QRQVLJQLILFDQWWHUPVWKHILQDOUHVSRQVHHTXDWLRQIRU5DLQFRGHGWHUPVLVJLYHQEHORZ
7DEOH5DYDOXHV$IWHU(OLPLQDWLRQ
7HUP
&RHI
6(&RHI
&RQVWDQW
&
'
$ $
& &
1707
6 35(66
56T 56TSUHG 56TDGM
7DEOH$129$7DEOHIRUVHFRQG 2UGHU 0RGHO IRU5D
6RXUFH
')
6HT66
$GM66
$GM06
5HJUHVVLRQ
/LQHDU
&
'
6TXDUH
$ $
& &
5HVLGXDO
(UURU
/DFNRI
)LW
3XUH(UURU
7RWDO
)LJGHSLFWVWKHPDLQHIIHFWSORWIRU5D)URPWKLVILJXUHLWLVFOHDUWKDWWKHSDUDPHWHUVSHDNFXUUHQWDQGSXOVH
RQWLPHKDYHKLJKHVWLQFOLQDWLRQVRWKHVHDUHPRVWVLJQLILFDQWIDFWRUVDIIHFWLQJVXUIDFHURXJKQHVV
0DLQ (IIHFWV 3ORW IRU 5D
'DWD 0HDQV
$
0HDQ
&
'
)LJ1RUPDOSUREDELOLW\SORWRIUHVLGXDOV
1708
7KH SDUDPHWULF DQDO\VLV KDV EHHQ FDUULHG RXW WR VWXG\ WKH LQIOXHQFHV RI WKH LQSXW SURFHVV SDUDPHWHU RQ VXUIDFH
URXJKQHVV LQ ('0 SURFHVV &RQWRXU SORWV DQG WKUHHGLPHQVLRQDO UHVSRQVH VXUIDFH SORWV DUH IRUPHG EDVHG RQ WKH
TXDGUDWLFPRGHOWRHYDOXDWHWKHYDULDWLRQRIUHVSRQVH7KHVHSORWVFDQDOVRJLYHIXUWKHUDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHFRUUHODWLRQ
EHWZHHQWKHSURFHVVSDUDPHWHUVDQGUHVSRQVH7KHFRQWRXUDQGUHVSRQVHVXUIDFHSORWVIRU5DZLWKUHVSHFWWRLQSXW
PDFKLQLQJSDUDPHWHUVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJDI,QDOOWKHVHILJXUHVWZRRIWKHIRXULQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHVDUHKHOG
FRQVWDQWDWWKHLUFHQWUHOHYHO)URPWKHILJXUHVLWLVFOHDU5DLQFUHDVHVZLWKDQLQFUHDVHRISHDNFXUUHQW7KLVLQFUHDVH
EHFRPHV PRUH SURPLQHQW DV WKH YDOXH RI FXUUHQW ULVHV GXH WR KLJKHU VSDUN HQHUJ\ WKDW SURGXFHV WKH KLJKHU
WHPSHUDWXUH 5D DOVRLQFUHDVHV ZLWKDQLQFUHDVHLQSXOVHRQWLPH $OVR5DGHFUHDVHV ZLWKDQLQFUHDVHRISXOVHRII
WLPH'XHWRWKHKLJKHUVSDUNHQHUJ\SURGXFHVWKHKLJKHUWHPSHUDWXUHFDXVHPRUHPDWHULDOWRPHOWDQGHURGHIURP
WKHZRUNSLHFHDVDUHVXOW5DLQFUHDVHVDQGGXHWRDQXQGHVLUDEOHKHDWORVVZKLFKGRHVQRWFRQWULEXWHWR5DWKDWOHDG
WRGURSLQWKHWHPSHUDWXUHRIWKHZRUNSLHFHEHIRUHWKHQH[WVSDUNVWDUWVDQGWKHUHIRUH5DGHFUHDVHV
)LJ 6XUIDFHDQGFRQWRXUSORWVRIVXUIDFHURXJKQHVV
7RFKHFNWKHGHYHORSHGPRGHORQHFRQILUPDWLRQWHVWLVFDUULHGRXWDWWKHPLGOHYHOVRIWKHSURFHVVSDUDPHWHUV
7DEOHVKRZVWKHUHVXOWRIWKHFRQILUPDWLRQUXQIRU5DDQGLWVFRPSDULVRQZLWKWKHSUHGLFWHGYDOXH 7KHSDUDPHWULF
FRPELQDWLRQ IRU PLQLPXP VXUIDFH URXJKQHVV LV $ % & ' LH SXOVH RQ WLPH V SXOVH RII WLPH
V FXUUHQW $PSDQG YROWDJH 9 ,WLVREVHUYHGWKDWWKHFDOFXODWHGHUURULVYHU\VPDOORQO\7KLV
FRQILUPVWKHUHSURGXFLELOLW\RIH[SHULPHQWDOFRQFOXVLRQ
7DEOH &RQIRUPDWLRQWHVWUHVXOW
5D
7RQ
7RII
,S
9
([SHULPHQWDO
3UHGLFWHG
(UURU
1709
&RQFOXVLRQ
,QWKHSUHVHQWVWXG\DVHFRQGRUGHUUHVSRQVHPRGHOKDVEHHQGHYHORSHGWRSUHGLFWWKH VXUIDFHURXJKQHVVLQ('0
PDFKLQLQJ RSHUDWLRQ RI (1 WRRO VWHHO 7R FDUU\ RXW WKH H[SHULPHQWV IRXU PDFKLQLQJ SDUDPHWHUV DUH FRQVLGHUHG
YL]SHDNFXUUHQWYROWDJHSXOVHRQWLPHDQGSXOVHRIIWLPH7RDQDO\]HWKHH[SHULPHQWDOUHVXOWVUHVSRQVHVXUIDFH
PHWKRGRORJ\LVDSSOLHGDQG$129$WHVWLVFDUULHGRXW,WLVREVHUYHGWKDWIRU5DWKHSHDNFXUUHQWDQGSXOVHRQWLPH
DUHPRVWVLJQLILFDQWIDFWRUV 6XUIDFHURXJKQHVV5DGHFUHDVHV ZLWKDGHFUHDVHLQSHDNFXUUHQWDV ZHOODVSXOVHRQ
WLPH )LQDOO\ FRQILUPDWLRQ WHVW LV FDUULHG RXW WR FKHFN WKH GHYHORSHG PRGHO FRQILUPHG WKDW WKH HUURU EHWZHHQ WKH
UHVXOWIURPSUHGLFWHGPRGHOLVZLWKLQRIWKHH[SHULPHQWDOYDOXH
5HIHUHQFHV
$ODXGGLQ0(%DUDGLH0$+DVKPL06-&RPSXWHUDLGHGDQDO\VLVRID VXUIDFHURXJKQHVVPRGHOIRUHQGPLOOLQJ-RXUQDORI0DWHULDOV
3URFHVVLQJ7HFKQRORJ\
$OOHQ77,QWURGXFWLRQWR(QJLQHHULQJ6WDWLVWLFVDQG6L[6LJPD6SULQJHU9HUODJ/RQGRQ/LPLWHG
$OOHQ3&KHQ;3URFHVVVLPXODWLRQRIPLFUR HOHFWURGLVFKDUJHPDFKLQLQJRQPRO\EGHQXP-0DWHU3URFHVV7HFKQRO
$VLI,TEDO$.0DQG.KDQ$$0RGHOLQJDQG$QDO\VLVRI055(:5DQG6XUIDFH5RXJKQHVVLQ('0$PHULFDQ-RI(QJLQHHULQJDQG
$SSOLHG6FLHQFHV
%R[*(3:LOVRQ.%2QWKH([SHULPHQWDO$WWDLQPHQWRI2SWLPXP&RQGLWLRQV-RXUQDORIWKH5R\DO6WDWLVWLFDO6RFLHW\%^
'L%LWRQWR''(XEDQN373DWHO05%DUUXIHW0$7KHRUHWLFDOPRGHOVRIWKHHOHFWULFDOGLVFKDUJHPDFKLQLQJSURFHVV,$VLPSOHFDWKRGH
HURVLRQPRGHO-$SSO3K\V
+R.+1HZPDQ676WDWHRIWKHDUWLQHOHFWULFDOGLVFKDUJHPDFKLQLQJ('0,QW-0DFK7RRO0DQXIDFW
-RVKL613DQGH66'HYHORSPHQWRIDQLQWHOOLJHQWSURFHVVPRGHOIRU('0,QW-$GY0DQXIDFW7HFKQRO
.KXUL$,560DQGUHODWHGWRSLF)LUVW(GLWLRQE\:RUOG6FLHQWLILF3XEOLVKLQJ&R3WH/WG
.XQLHGD0/DXZHUV%5DMXUNDU.36FKXPDFKHU %0$GYDQFLQJ('0WKURXJK)XQGDPHQWDO ,QVLJKWLQWRWKH3URFHVV&,53$QQDOV
0DQXIDFWXULQJ7HFKQRORJ\YRO
/D]DUHQNR%57RLQYHUWWKHHIIHFWRIZHDURQHOHFWULFSRZHUFRQWDFWV'LVVHUWDWLRQRIWKH$OO8QLRQ,QVWLWXWHIRU(OHFWUR7HFKQLTXHLQ
0RVFRZ&&&35XVVLDQ
0F*HRXJK-$$GYDQFHG0HWKRGVRI0DFKLQLQJ/RQGRQ&KDSPDQDQG+DOO
0LQLWDE8VHU0DQXDO5HOHDVH0,1,7$%,QF6WDWH&ROOHJH3$86$
0RQWJRPHU\'&'HVLJQDQGDQDO\VLVRIH[SHULPHQWV -RKQ:LOH\1HZ<RUN
3DQGD '. %KRL5. 'HYHORSLQJ WUDQVLHQW WKUHHGLPHQVLRQDO WKHUPDO PRGHOV IRU HOHFWUR GLVFKDUJH PDFKLQLQJ RI VHPL LQILQLWH DQG LQILQLWH
VROLG-0DWHU3URFHVV0DQXIDFW6FL
5DPDNULVKQD 5 DQG .DUXQDPRRUWK\ / 0XOWL UHVSRQVH RSWLPL]DWLRQ RI ZLUH ('0 RSHUDWLRQV XVLQJ UREXVW GHVLJQ RI H[SHULPHQWV
,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI$GYDQFH0DQXIDFWXULQJ7HFKQRORJ\S
5HKEHLQ : 6FKXO]H +30LNH . :ROOHQEHUJ * 6WRUU0 ,QIOXHQFH RI 6HOHFWHG *URXSV RI $GGLWLYHVRQ%UHDNGRZQ LQ ('0 6LQNLQJ
-RXUQDORI0DWHULDOV3URFHVVLQJ7HFKQRORJ\YRO
<HR6+.XUQLD:7DQ3&&ULWLFDODVVHVVPHQWDQGQXPHULFDOFRPSDULVRQRIHOHFWURWKHUPDOPRGHOVLQ('0-0DWHU3URFHVV 7HFKQRO