Albertas fiscal situation

Budget 2015 and beyond

What We Heard
Public consultations December 2014-March 2015

Executive Summary
In the fall and winter of 2014, world oil prices began a dramatic and unforeseen collapse from a value of
$105/barrel to below $50/barrel. This has had a dramatic impact on revenues for the Government of
Alberta, creating a forecasted $7 billion revenue loss for the 2015-16 fiscal year.
Without direct changes in government operations, it is forecast Alberta could face a multi-billion dollar
deficit in the coming years. In the lead up to work on Budget 2015, government consulted with
Albertans in several ways to solicit suggestions for how to address the new fiscal reality.
The Government of Alberta held numerous forms of public consultation in advance of the 2015-16
provincial budget. These included open consultations with major economists and a speaking tour with
26 stops across Alberta. As well, government MLAs held open houses in some constituencies and an
online survey drew wide-ranging interest from Albertans. Below is a summary of some of these
consultations.

Online survey
The online survey was accessible at governments main budget website (budget.alberta.ca) and was
conducted from February 5-28. It was a voluntary survey and included both multiple choice questions
and the opportunity for written input from participants. The survey was conducted as government was
actively speaking about the $7 billion revenue gap for Budget 2015 due to declining oil prices. This public
narrative sparked tremendous interest in the survey. Promotion of the survey was done through existing
media channels, including a news conference with Minister Robin Campbell on February 5 as well as
extensively through government social media channels. As well, multiple stakeholders and individual
Albertans promoted taking the survey through their own social media accounts.
In total, 40,513 responses were received, up significantly from the 2,173 responses received for an
online survey conducted for Budget 2014.
From February 5-28, the budget.alberta.ca site recorded 102,600 page views. The highest number of
page views on February 5 with 22,551 page viewsthe day the survey was launched. Extensive prebudget information was available to Albertans on this website.
Participation in the survey was voluntary. As respondents were not selected randomly, the resulting
self-selected respondent populations can be considered representative of interested Albertans but
may not be representative of the entire Alberta population. Please note that summaries of open-ended
questions represent a general indication of the impressions and preferences of survey respondents, and
should not be taken as representative of survey respondents who did not comment.
The survey was conducted in-house with no external costs.

Speaking Tour
Starting on January 13 and continuing to March 9, several cabinet ministers and the Premier made 26
stops on a speaking tour that included small communities such as Peace River, Grande Cache and
Athabasca, smaller regional centres such as Grande Prairie, Medicine Hat and Lloydminster as well as
Edmonton and Calgary.

Roughly 2,000 people attended the various speaking engagements as a part of the formal tour. A speech
given in Medicine Hat by Minister Campbell, was recorded and the video posted on budget.alberta.ca
for any Albertans interested and unable to attend one of the speaking engagements. Each event allowed
for questions from the audience and subjects ranged widely from local concerns in each community to
larger provincial issues. Getting off the roller coaster of oil prices and economic diversification were
consistent comments heard during the formal speaking tour.
The majority of the speaking engagements were hosted by local Chambers of Commerce or service clubs
and there was no direct cost to government for these speaking engagements beyond the cost of
transportation to each community. Local media were invited to attend and were given the opportunity
to discuss the budget and comments heard at the events.

Direct Consultations
On December 4, Minister Campbell met with economic experts from Canadian financial institutions to
discuss Albertas economic forecasts leading up to Budget 2015.
Video recordings of the consultations were posted publically online and had several hundred viewings as
of the beginning of March.
Additionally, Minister Campbell and other ministers met directly with municipalities, school boards,
universities and other large stakeholders to discuss the provincial budget and Albertas fiscal situation.

#ABbudget
Budget 2015 Online Consultation
Survey Report as of closing date: February 28, 2015
Number of responses: 40,513

Table of Contents
This report lists the questions in the survey and displays a chart and summary table for each question.
* Indicates text input question. Results have not been included in this report.

Contents ..................................................................................................... Page

Definitions Survey Response Tables ............................................................... 3
Questions .......................................................................................................... 4
1.

To what extent do you think low oil prices impact the Alberta government's ability to budget? .... 4

2.

The provincial government is projecting a shortfall of $7 billion or a 15 per cent reduction in

revenue next year. How concerned are you about that shortfall? ................................................... 5

3.

Some people think the current economic situation is a normal cyclical event that Alberta should
ride out. Others think that the current economic situation is an urgent matter that the Alberta
government must quickly respond to. To ensure the long-term prosperity and sustainability of
the province, do you think the government should take action now, wait six months to see
where the economy is going, or hold out until high oil prices return? ............................................. 6

4.

Some people think that the Alberta government needs stable sources of revenue so that oil
price fluctuations dont have as much impact on the provincial budget. Other people think the
government has sufficient revenue and needs to better manage its spending. Which of these is
closer to your own opinion? .............................................................................................................. 7

5.

The Alberta government is forecasting up to a $7 billion revenue shortfall for the coming year
due to the recent drop in the price of oil. The government has said its first priority is to make
cuts at the top to lead by example and to look for efficiencies, but experts say that is unlikely to
be enough to solve the problem.
How acceptable do you think it is for the government to .............................................................. 8

-26.

Government has choices about how to respond to the shortfall in revenue. What is the right
balance? ............................................................................................................................................. 9

7.

Compared to other provinces, would you say current tax rates in Alberta are higher, about
average, or lower? ........................................................................................................................... 10

8.

How important is it that Alberta's tax rates are lower than other provinces? ................................ 11

9.

In what ways can the government act to increase and/or stabilize its revenues without
jeopardizing Albertas competitive position? .................................................................................. 12

10. If the government needs to increase its revenues through taxation, are there options you feel
should NOT be considered? ............................................................................................................. 14
11. Alberta per capita spending is roughly $1200 above the national average. If the government
needs to cut spending, are there certain programs or services where you would tolerate cuts?... 15
12. And are there options you feel should NOT be touched? ............................................................... 17
13. With regard to the following statements, please indicate whether you agree, disagree or don't
know .............................................................................................................................................. 19
14. * If we missed something, please take a moment to provide additional comments.
15. How many years have you lived in Alberta? .................................................................................... 21
16. What part of the province do you live in? ...................................................................................... 22

-3-

Definitions Survey Response Tables

For questions that allowed only one response (Questions 1 to 4, 7 to 8 and 15 and 16):

Absolute Frequency column: The number of times this choice was selected. The sum of this column
is the total number of respondents (40,513).

Relative Frequency Percentage column: How much this choice was selected, relative to the other
choices for the question, as percentage. The sum of this column is 100% of respondents.

For Question 6 (required a percentage for each of three options):

The average of percentages chosen by respondents is shown in the chart and in the table.

For questions that required one response for each of several options (Questions 5 and 13):

The options are shown in rows, and the responses for each are shown in the cells for that row.

The first number in the cell is the number of times this choice was selected.

The second number in the cell is how much this choice was selected, relative to the other options
for that row, as percentage.

The sum of each row is the total number of respondents (40,513); and the percentages total 100%.

For questions that allowed more than one response (Questions 9, 10, 11 and 12):

Absolute Frequency column: The number of times this choice was selected. The sum of this column
is more than the total number of respondents (40,513), because more than one choice was allowed.

Relative Frequency Percentage column: The percentage of the total number of respondents (40,513)
who selected this option. There is no sum for this column, because more than one choice was
allowed. Percentages will not add up to 100%.

-4-

Question 1
To what extent do you think low oil prices impact the Alberta government's
ability to budget?
RESPONSES CHART:

RESPONSES TABLE:

-5-

Question 2
The provincial government is projecting a shortfall of $7 billion or a 15 per cent
reduction in revenue next year. How concerned are you about that shortfall?
RESPONSES CHART:

RESPONSES TABLE:

-6-

Question 3
Some people think the current economic situation is a normal cyclical event
that Alberta should ride out. Others think that the current economic situation
is an urgent matter that the Alberta government must quickly respond to. To
ensure the long-term prosperity and sustainability of the province, do you
think the government should take action now, wait six months to see where
the economy is going, or hold out until high oil prices return?
RESPONSES CHART:

RESPONSES TABLE:

-7-

Question 4
Some people think that the Alberta government needs stable sources of
revenue so that oil price fluctuations dont have as much impact on the
provincial budget. Other people think the government has sufficient revenue
and needs to better manage its spending. Which of these is closer to your own
opinion?
RESPONSES CHART:

RESPONSES TABLE:

-8-

Question 5
The Alberta government is forecasting up to a $7 billion revenue shortfall for
the coming year due to the recent drop in the price of oil. The government has
said its first priority is to make cuts at the top to lead by example and to look
for efficiencies, but experts say that is unlikely to be enough to solve the
problem. How acceptable do you think it is for the government to
(Choose one option for each row.)
RESPONSES CHART:

RESPONSES TABLE:
Sequence of numbers in cells is as follows:
ROWS: Absolute Frequency (number); and Relative Frequency (%)
Options

Not at all Not very Somewhat

Very
acceptable acceptable acceptable acceptable

Sum

a) Cut spending on programs and services,

including healthcare and education, in order to
balance the budget.

25235
62.29%

6815
16.82%

4924
12.15%

3539
8.74%

40513
100%

b) Raise taxes and user fees to reduce reliance on

oil revenues in order to balance the budget.

9437
23.29%

7308
18.04%

13691
33.79%

10077
24.87%

40513
100%

c) Borrow money to cover the current shortfall in

revenues while we wait for oil prices to
rebound.

8866
21.88%

10392
25.65%

15870
39.17%

5385
13.29%

40513
100%

-9-

Question 6
Government has choices about how to respond to the shortfall in revenue.
What is the right balance? (Respondents allocated a percentage for each
option.)

RESPONSES CHART:

RESPONSES TABLE:

Choices

Averages of
Percentages
chosen by
Respondents

a) Reduce expenditures

38.87%

b) Raise taxes and user fees

32.28%

c) Run a deficit

28.85%

Sum:

100%

- 10 -

Question 7
Compared to other provinces, would you say current tax rates in Alberta are
higher, about average, or lower?
RESPONSES CHART:

RESPONSES TABLE:

- 11 -

Question 8
How important is it that Alberta's tax rates are lower than other provinces?
RESPONSES CHART:

RESPONSES TABLE:

- 12 -

Question 9
In what ways can the government act to increase and/or stabilize its revenues
without jeopardizing Albertas competitive position? (Please choose at least one.)

- 13 -

RESPONSES CHART:
QUESTION 9 RESPONSES TABLE:

- 14 -

Question 10
If the government needs to increase its revenues through taxation, are there
options you feel should NOT be considered? (Please choose at least one.)
RESPONSES CHART:

RESPONSES TABLE:

- 15 -

Question 11
Alberta per capita spending is roughly $1200 above the national average. If the
government needs to cut spending, are there certain programs or services
where you would tolerate cuts? (Please choose at least one.)
RESPONSES CHART:

- 16 -

QUESTION 11 RESPONSES TABLE:

- 17 -

Question 12
And are there options you feel should NOT be touched? (Please choose as least
one option.)
RESPONSES CHART:

- 18 -

QUESTION 12 RESPONSES TABLE:

- 19 -

Question 13
With regard to the following statements, please indicate whether you agree,
disagree or don't know. (Please choose one response for each row.)
RESPONSES CHART:

- 20 -

QUESTION 13 RESPONSES TABLE:

Sequence of numbers in cells is as follows:
ROWS: Absolute Frequency (number); and Relative Frequency (%)
Options

Dont
Know

Disagree

Agree

Sum

a) I am concerned about the provinces reliance on oil

and gas revenue because of its boom and bust cycle
and its impact on programs and services.

1196
2.95%

4669
11.52%

34648
85.52%

40513
100%

b) Even if it means fewer services, we should save more

of our oil and gas revenue for the future because it is
a non-renewable resource.

5784
14.28%

10467
25.84%

24262
59.89%

40513
100%

c) It is wrong for Alberta to rely too heavily on oil and

gas revenue because the price is controlled by forces
outside of the province.

2144
5.29%

4943
12.2%

33426
82.51%

40513
100%

d) It is okay for government to borrow money for

hospitals, roads and schools because future
generations will also enjoy them and should share
the cost.

5214
12.87%

10225
25.24%

25074
61.89%

40513
100%

3289
8.12%

6997
17.27%

30227
74.61%

40513
100%

6041
14.91%

27999
69.11%

6473
15.98%

40513
100%

e) The government should protect key services from

cuts, even if that means running a deficit.
f)

The Alberta government should never run a deficit in

any circumstances.

Question 14 (Comments)
Please note: Full text input has not been included in this release.

- 21 -

Question 15
How many years have you lived in Alberta?
RESPONSES CHART:

RESPONSES TABLE:

- 22 -

Question 16
What part of the province do you live in?
RESPONSES CHART:

RESPONSES TABLE: