Professional Documents
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Ass 1
Ass 1
6.
Four separate awards (best scholarship, best leadership qualities, and so on) are to be
presented to selected students from a class of 25. How many different outcomes are possible
if
(a) a student can receive any number of awards;
(b) each student can receive at most 1 award?
7. You are in a game of Russian roulette with an opponent, but this time the gun (a 6 shooter
revolver) has three bullets in three consecutive chambers. The barrel is spun only once. You
and your opponent would then take turns to point the gun to your own head and pulls the
trigger. The game stops when any one of you dies. Would you prefer to be the first or second
to shoot?
8. From a group of 4 lawyers, 8 accountants, and 7 doctors, a committee of three is selected at
random. What is the probability that the committee has more lawyers than doctors?
9. If 8 castles are randomly placed on a chessboard, compute the probability that none of the
castles can capture any of the others. That is, compute the probability that no row or column
contains more than one castle.
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10. (Poker)
52
If it is assumed that all poker hands are equally likely, what is the probability of being
5
dealt
(a) one pair? (This occurs when the cards have denominations a, a, b, c, d where a, b, c, and
d are all distinct.)
(b) two pairs? (This occurs when the cards have denominations a, a, b, b, c, where a, b, and c
are all distinct.)
(c) three of a kind? (This occurs when the cards have denominations a, a, a, b, c.)
(d) a straight? (Five consecutive cards of any suits which are not all the same, including 10, J,
Q, K, A.)
(e) a flush? (Five cards of the same suit and not all in consecutive order.)
(f) full house? (This occurs when the cards have denominations a, a, a, b, b.)
(g) four of a kind? (This occurs when the cards have denominations a, a, a, a, b.)
(h) a straight-flush? (Five consecutive cards of the same suit, including 10, J, Q, K, A.)
11. Six couples are arranged to sit at a round table. How many arrangements can be made so that
(a) a particular couple is together?
(b) all couples are together?
(c) no two ladies may be together?
12. Prove that
n n n 1
r 1 r r
(This identity is the basis of a special arrangement of numbers in a triangular array known as
the Pascal Triangle. Using this identity together with the mathematical induction, one can
easily prove that all the binomial coefficients must be integers.)
13. Prove that
n m n m n m
n m
.
r 0 r 1 r 1
r 0
Hint: Consider a group of n men and m women. How many groups of size r are possible?
14. Use exercise 13 to prove that
2
2n n n
.
n k 0 k
15. Show that for n 0 ,
n
1 i 0 .
i 0
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17. We have 25 thousand dollars that must be invested among 4 possible opportunities. Each
investment must be integral in units of 1 thousand dollars, and there are minimal investments
that need to be made if one is to invest in these opportunities. The minimal investments are 3,
4, 4, and 5 thousand dollars. How many different investment strategies are available if
(a) an investment must be made in each opportunity;
(b) investments must be made in at least 3 of the 4 opportunities?
18. In how many ways can we fill a bag with n fruits subjects to the following constraints:
the number of apples must be even;
the number of bananas must be a multiple of 5;
there can be at most four oranges;
there can be at most one pear.
19. Six fair dice each numbered {1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3} are rolled simultaneously. What is the
probability that the sum will be equal to 10?
(Hint: Use the generating function x 2 x 2 3x 3 .)
20. Two six-face dice are thrown. Let E be the event that the sum of the dice is odd; let F be the
event that at least one of the dice lands on 1; and let G be the event that the sum is 5.
Describe the events E F , E F , F G , E F C , and E F G .
21. Let E, F, G be three events. Express the following events by set notations.
(a) only E occurs;
(b) both E and G but not F occurs;
(c) at least one of the events occurs;
(d) at least two of the events occurs;
(e) all three occur;
(f) none of the events occurs;
(g) at most one of them occurs;
(h) at most two of them occur;
(i) exactly two of them occur;
(j) at most three of them occur.
22. Suppose that A and B are mutually exclusive events for which P A 0.4 and P B 0.5 .
What is the probability that
(a) either A or B occurs;
(b) A occurs but B does not;
(c) both A and B occur?
23. In the following figure of pipes, assume that the probability of each valve being opened is p
and that the statuses of all the valves are mutually independent. Find the probability that
water can flow from L to R.
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and the event space to be the collection of subsets of . Hector observes that the assumption
that the first coin is fair is equivalent to the statement
P H , H , H , T 0.5 ,
and likewise, the assumption that the second coin is fair is equivalent to the statement
P H , H , T , H 0.5 .
P H , T , T , T 0.5
I and II: 7%
I and III: 3%
II and III: 2%
(The list tells us, for instance, that 14000 people read newspapers I and II.)
(a) Find the number of people reading only one newspaper.
(b) How many people read at least two newspapers?
(c) If I and III are morning papers and II is an evening paper, how many people read at least
one morning paper plus and evening paper?
(d) How many people read only one morning paper and one evening paper?
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26. The following data were given in a study of a group of 1000 subscribers to a certain
magazine: In reference to job, martial status and education, there were 312 professionals, 470
married persons, 525 college graduates, 42 professional college graduates, 147 married
college graduates, 86 married professionals, and 25 married professional college graduates.
Show that the numbers reported in the study must be incorrect.
27. Suppose E1 E2 En En 1 is a decreasing sequence of events. Show that
P i 1 Ei lim P En .
29. If 5 married couples are randomly arranged in a row of seats, find the probability that no
couple sits together.
30. To redeem a souvenir from a chain store, one must collect a set of five different types of
coupons, namely A, B, C, D, E Suppose that a customer has collected 12 coupons
independently, with each equally likely to be one of these five types.
(a) Find the probability that the customer has no coupon of type A.
(b) Find the probability that the customer has no coupon of type A and type B.
(c) Find the probability that the customer can redeem a souvenir.
31. Twenty people get on an elevator at the ground floor of a building. If each person is equally
likely to choose any of the 10 floors, independently, what is the probability that the elevator
stops at all 10 floors?
32. If two fair dice are rolled, what is the condition probability that the first one lands on 6 given
that the sum of the dice is i? Compute for all values of i between 2 and 12.
33. Two fair dice are rolled. What is the conditional probability that at least one lands on 6 given
that the dice land on different numbers?
34. The probabilities that a certain type of cell produces during its lifetime 0,1,2 cells of the first
generation are 1/4 , 5/8, 1/8, and any cell of the first generation produces cells of the second
generation under the same conditions. Find the probabilities
(i)
that three cells will produce exactly three cells of the first generation?
(ii)
that two cells will produce at least one cell of the first generation?
(iii) that one cell will give rise to at least one cell of the second generation?
35. A simplified model for the movement of the price of a stock supposes that on each day the
stocks price either moves up 1 unit with probability p or it moves down 1 unit with
probability 1 p . The changes on different days are assumed to be independent.
(a) What is the probability that after 2 days the stock will be at its original price?
(b) What is the probability that after 3 days the stocks price will have increased by 1 unit?
(c) Given that after 3 days the stocks price has increased by 1 unit, what is the probability
that it went up on the first day?
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36. An urn contains 4 red and 6 black balls. Players A and B withdraw balls from the urn
consecutively until a red ball is selected. The one who drew the red ball is the winner. Find
the probability that A will win. (A draws the first ball, then B, and so on. There is no
replacement of the drawn balls.)
37. Prove or give counterexamples to the following statements:
(a) If E is independent of F and E is independent of G, then E is independent of F G .
(b) If E is independent of F, and E is independent of G, and F G , then E is
independent of F G .
(c) If E is independent of F, and F is independent of G, and E is independent of F G , then
G is independent of E F .
(d) If E is independent of F, then they are conditionally independent given that G occurs.
38. Urn I contains 3 white and 4 red balls, whereas urn II contains 2 white and 1 red ball. A ball
is randomly chosen from urn I and put into urn II, then a ball is randomly selected from urn II.
(a) What is the probability that the ball selected from urn II is white?
(b) What is the conditional probability that the transferred ball was white, given that a white
ball is selected from urn II?
39. (a) If P A 0 , show that
P A B | A B P B | A .
8
4
2
2
3
12
4
10
6
11
5
7
(win)
(lose)
(lose)
(win)
(a) Calculate the probability of winning the pass line version of the game of craps with a pair
of fair dice. From this probability can you see why the game of craps is so popular?
(b) Calculate the probability that the game will end on the first or second throw.
41. Ninety-seven percent of all babies survive delivery. However, 12 percent of all births involve
Cesarean (C) sections, and when a C-section is performed the baby survives 95 percent of the
time. If a randomly chosen pregnant woman does not have a C-section, what is the
probability that her baby survives?
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42. An auto insurance company classifies its policyholders as good, bad, or average risks: 30%
are deemed good risks, 20% are deemed bad risks, and 50% are deemed average risks.
Historical data suggest tat 5% of the good risks, 40% of the bad risks, and 10% of the
average risks will be involved in an accident in the coming year.
(a) What is the probability that a randomly chosen customer files an accident claim in the
coming year?
(b) An accident claim has just been filed with the company. What is the probability that this
customer was classified as a good risk? A bad risk? An average risk?
(c) The company would like to have accident claims on at most 10% of its policies.
Consequently, it decides to cancel the policies of some bad risk customers and replace
these policies with average risks. Of the companys customers, 30% will remain
classified as good risks. What is the smallest percentage of the companys customers who
must be classified as average risks for the fraction of customers filing accident claims to
be at most 10%?
43. A certain college has observed that 20% of its incoming freshmen are unqualified and drop
out within the first 6 months. To better predict a students success, the college has decided to
administer a test to all freshmen when they first enrol. The college observes over a period of
many years that 85% of qualified students had passed the test, and 80% of unqualified
students had failed the test. If a freshman passed the test, what is the probability that he/she
will be unqualified and drop out within the first 6 months?
44. A broker handles futures contracts on oil, barley, and orange juice. Of the brokers orders,
60% are for oil futures, 30% are for barley futures, and 10% are for orange juice futures. On
a given day, 40% of the orders for oil futures are buys, 55% of the orders for barley futures
are sells, and 35% of the orders for orange juice futures are sells. At the end of the day, a
clerk notices that one of the sell orders has the name of the commodity future sold omitted.
What is the probability that this order was for a future on oil? On barley? On orange juice?
45. Suppose that there was a cancer diagnostic test that was 98 percent accurate both on those
that do and those that do not have the disease. If 0.5 percent of the population have cancer,
compute the probability that a tested person has cancer, given that his or her test result
indicates so.
46. Assume that there are two types of drivers. The less safe drivers, who comprise 20% of the
population, have probability 0.6 each of causing an accident in a year. The rest of the
population are safe drivers, who have probability 0.1 each of causing an accident in a year.
The insurance premium is $7000 times ones probability of causing an accident in the
coming year. Assume that for each driver, the events of causing an accident in different years
are independent.
(a) What is the probability that a driver selected at random from the population will cause an
accident in this year?
(b) A new subscriber had caused an accident this year. What is the probability that he/she is a
less safe driver?
(c) How much should be the premium charged to the subscriber in part (b) for the following
year?
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47. A student wishes to pass degree examination in two subjects. He estimates that if he
concentrates his revision effort on one of them (Strategy I), he will have probability 0.8 of
passing in that subject, but 0.4 of passing in the other. If he revises for both examinations
(Strategy II), he has probability 0.6 of passing each. His performances in the two exams will
be independent of one another.
If he fails either or both of the examinations, he may resit. If he resits one examination, he
will pass with probability 0.9, and if he resits both, he will pass both with probability 0.6.
Which of the two revision strategies will give him the best chance of eventually passing in
both subjects?
If he fails just one of the original examinations, he may take a vacation job, which will
reduce his probability of passing the resit. What would the value of this reduced probability
have to be to make the probabilities of eventually passing in both subjects under the two
strategies equal?
48. Assume that the last juror to be selected for a panel to serve in the trial of a certain accused
person will be 1 of 12 candidates. Of the 12, 5 are young persons and the other 7 are older
people, this distribution being fairly representative of the proportions of young and older
among jurors in the county generally. A special survey in the county has shown that 25
percent of jurors are sympathetic to a defendant accused of the particular type of offense at
issue in the present trial, and it is known that 70 percent of sympathetic jurors are older
people. Given that the final juror chosen is an older person, what is the probability that he or
she is sympathetic to the accused?
49. One probability class of 30 students contains 16 that are good, 9 that are average, and 5 that
are of poor quality. A second probability class, also of 30 students, contains 2 that are good,
10 that are average, and 18 that are poor. You (the expert) are aware of these numbers, but
you have no idea which class is which. If you examine one student selected at random from
each class and find that the student from class A is an average student whereas the student
from class B is a poor student, what is the probability that class A is the superior class?
50. A small plane has gone down, and the search is organized into three regions. Starting with
the likeliest, they are :
Region
Mountains
Prairie
Sea
0.6
0.1
0.3
Chance of Being
Overlooked in the Search
0.4
0.2
0.8
The last column gives the chance that if the plane is there, it will not be found. For example,
if it went down at sea, there is 80% chance it will have disappeared, or otherwise not be
found. Since the pilot is not equipped to long survive a crash in the mountains, it is
particularly important to determine the chance that the plane went down in the mountains.
(a) Before any search is started, what is this chance ?
(b) The initial search was in the mountains, and the plane was not found. Now what is the
chance the plane is nevertheless in the mountains ?
(c) The search was continued over the other two regions, and unfortunately the plane was not
found anywhere. Finally now what is the chance that the plane is in the mountains ?
(d) Describing how and why the chances changed from (a) to (b) to (c).
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What is the probability that the pattern THH occurs before the pattern HHH?
What is the probability that the pattern HTH occurs before the pattern THH?
What is the probability that the pattern HHH occurs before the pattern HTH?
Comment on the above results.
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56. A coin is tossed repeatedly and the outcomes are recorded as a sequence of Hs (heads) and
Ts (tails). Define each set of consecutive Hs and each set of consecutive Ts as a run, e.g.
the sequence HTTHHTTTTT contains a run of one H, followed by a run of two Ts, then a
run of two Hs and finally a run of 4 Ts. Find the probability that a run of r heads is
observed before a run of s tails.
57. Let S 1,2,..., n and suppose that A and B are, independently, equally likely to be any of
the 2 n subsets (including the null set and S itself) of S.
n
3
(a) Show that
P A B .
4
HINT: Let N B denote the number of elements in B. Use
P A B
P A B | N B i PN B i
i 0
n
3
(b) Show that P A B .
4
58. Players are of equal skill, and in a contest the probability is 0.5 that a specified one of the two
contestants will be the victor. A group of 2 n players are paired off against each other at
random. The 2 n 1 winners are again paired off randomly, and so on, until a single winner
remains. Consider two specified contestants, A and B, and define the events Ai , i n and E
by
Ai : A plays in exactly i contests;
E : A and B never play with each other.
(a) Find P Ai , i 1,2,..., n .
Pn
1
2n 2 1
Pn 1
2n 1 2n 1 2
(b) Suppose
(c) Suppose
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n P Bk | A
.
P A
k 1 P A | Bk
(It is known as the Inverse Bayes Formula, by which the unconditional probability P A
can be evaluated based upon the conditional probabilities P Bk | A and P A | Bk ,
k 1,2,..., n .)
(b) The reliability of a particular skin test for tuberculosis (TB) is as follows: if the subject
has TB, the test comes back positive 98% of the time. If the subject does not have TB, the
test comes back negative 99% of the time. (Another way to say this is that the sensitivity
of the test is 0.98, and the specificity of the test is 0.99.)
For a large population, the predictive power of the test is found as follows: out of the
persons with positive test results, only 1.9227% was actually found to have TB; out of the
persons with negative test results, 99.9996% was actually found to have no TB. (Another
way to say this is that the positive predictive probability of the test is 0.019227, and the
negative predictive probability of the test is 0.999996.)
What is the prevalence of TB, i.e. the proportion of persons who have TB, in this
population?
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Challenging problems
Here are some interesting and challenging problems in probability. Try your best to tackle these
problems. There is no absolute right or wrong. You have no need to submit your solution for
these problems. However, you are encouraged to think about them and discuss with your
classmates.
The Secretary Problem (Also known as the Dowry Problem)
Suppose an executive needs to hire a new secretary. She finds n possible candidates for the job.
Naturally, she wants to hire the best candidate, so she interviews them one at a time. After each
interview, she knows only whether that candidate is the best of the ones she has already
interviewed. She has no idea how the candidate compares to the remaining candidates. However,
she must decide at that time whether or not to hire the candidate.
We assume that the candidates come in random order, so that the probability of any sequence of
candidates is equally likely.
What strategy would you suggest to her, so that she can have the highest chance to hire the best
candidate? What is the probability that she can hire the best candidate by using your strategy?
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