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  • 4.1 Probability

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    Ahmed F. Ashour
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    The document defines key probability concepts like experiments, outcomes, sample space, events, and probability. It provides examples of calculating probability for coin tosses, dice rolls, and picking marbles from a bag. Probability is a ratio of favorable outcomes to total possible outcomes, and provides a statistical prediction rather than a definite outcome. While outcomes may vary in any given experiment, the long-term average is expected to approach the predicted probability.

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    The document defines key probability concepts like experiments, outcomes, sample space, events, and probability. It provides examples of calculating probability for coin tosses, dice rolls, and picking marbles from a bag. Probability is a ratio of favorable outcomes to total possible outcomes, and provides a statistical prediction rather than a definite outcome. While outcomes may vary in any given experiment, the long-term average is expected to approach the predicted probability.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    25 views5 pages

    4.1 Probability

    Uploaded by

    Ahmed F. Ashour
    The document defines key probability concepts like experiments, outcomes, sample space, events, and probability. It provides examples of calculating probability for coin tosses, dice rolls, and picking marbles from a bag. Probability is a ratio of favorable outcomes to total possible outcomes, and provides a statistical prediction rather than a definite outcome. While outcomes may vary in any given experiment, the long-term average is expected to approach the predicted probability.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 5

    Probability

    Howlikelysomethingistohappen.
    Manyeventscan'tbepredictedwithtotalcertainty.Thebestwecansayishowlikely
    theyaretohappen,usingtheideaofprobability.

    TossingaCoin
    Whenacoinistossed,therearetwopossibleoutcomes:
    heads(H)or

    tails(T)
    WesaythattheprobabilityofthecoinlandingHis.
    AndtheprobabilityofthecoinlandingTis.

    ThrowingDice
    Whenasingle die isthrown,therearesixpossibleoutcomes:1,
    2,3,4,5,6.
    Theprobabilityofanyoneofthemis1/6.

    Probability
    Ingeneral:

    Probabilityofaneventhappening=

    Numberofwaysitcanhappen
    Totalnumberofoutcomes

    Example:thechancesofrollinga"4"withadie
    Numberofwaysitcanhappen:1(thereisonly1facewitha"4"onit)
    Totalnumberofoutcomes:6(thereare6facesaltogether)

    Sotheprobability=

    1
    6

    Example:thereare5marblesinabag:4areblue,and1isred.
    Whatistheprobabilitythatabluemarblegetspicked?
    Numberofwaysitcanhappen:4(thereare4blues)
    Totalnumberofoutcomes:5(thereare5marblesintotal)

    Sotheprobability=

    4
    5

    =0.8

    Probability Line
    Wecanshowprobabilityona ProbabilityLine :

    Probabilityisalwaysbetween0and1

    Probability is Just a Guide

    Probabilitydoesnottellusexactlywhatwillhappen,itisjustaguide

    Example:tossacoin100times,howmanyHeadswillcomeup?
    Probabilitysaysthatheadshaveachance,sowecanexpect50Heads.
    Butwhenweactuallytryitwemightget48heads,or55heads...oranything
    really,butinmostcasesitwillbeanumbernear50.

    Learnmoreat ProbabilityIndex .

    Words
    SomewordshavespecialmeaninginProbability:

    ExperimentorTrial:anactionwheretheresultisuncertain.

    Tossingacoin,throwingdice,seeingwhatpizzapeoplechooseareallexamplesof
    experiments.

    SampleSpace:allthepossibleoutcomesofanexperiment

    Example:choosingacardfromadeck
    Thereare52cardsinadeck(notincludingJokers)
    SotheSampleSpaceisall52possiblecards:{AceofHearts,2ofHearts,
    etc...}

    TheSampleSpaceismadeupofSamplePoints:

    SamplePoint:justoneofthepossibleoutcomes

    Example:DeckofCards
    the5ofClubsisasamplepoint
    theKingofHeartsisasamplepoint
    "King"isnotasamplepoint.Asthereare4Kingsthatis4differentsample
    points.

    Event:asingleresultofanexperiment

    ExampleEvents:
    GettingaTailwhentossingacoinisanevent
    Rollinga"5"isanevent.
    Aneventcanincludeoneormorepossibleoutcomes:
    Choosinga"King"fromadeckofcards(anyofthe4Kings)isan
    event
    Rollingan"evennumber"(2,4or6)isalsoanevent

    TheSampleSpaceisallpossibleoutcomes.

    ASamplePointisjustonepossibleoutcome.
    AndanEventcanbeoneormoreofthepossible
    outcomes.

    Hey,let'susethosewords,soyougetusedtothem:

    Example:Alexwantstoseehowmanytimes
    a"double"comesupwhenthrowing2dice.
    EachtimeAlexthrowsthe2diceisanExperiment.
    ItisanExperimentbecausetheresultisuncertain.

    TheEventAlexislookingforisa"double",wherebothdicehavethesame
    number.Itismadeupofthese6SamplePoints:
    {1,1}{2,2}{3,3}{4,4}{5,5}and{6,6}

    TheSampleSpaceisallpossibleoutcomes(36SamplePoints):
    {1,1}{1,2}{1,3}{1,4}...{6,3}{6,4}{6,5}{6,6}

    TheseareAlex'sResults:

    Experiment

    Isita
    Double?

    {3,4}

    No

    {5,1}

    No

    {2,2}

    Yes

    {6,3}

    No

    ...

    ...

    After100Experiments,Alexhas19"double"Events...isthatclosetowhat
    youwouldexpect?

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