6804 Topline

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters
Threats to the United States 03.24.2015

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters March 16-24, 2015. For the survey, a sample of 2,809 Americans,
including 1,083 Democrats, 1,059 Republicans, and 351 Independents; and 2,322 people who identified as white and 487 people who
identified as a minority, ages 18+ were interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility
interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.1 for all adults, 3.4 percentage points for Democrats, 3.4
percentage points for Republicans, 6.0 percentage points for Independents, 2.3 percentage points for people who identified as white, and
5.1 percentage points for people who identified as a minority. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not
applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error
and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per
cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls,
please visit http://polling.reuters.com/.
THREATS TO THE UNITED STATES

Q1. On a scale of 1 to 5, with one being no threat and 5 being an imminent threat, how much of a threat do the
following countries or organizations pose to the United States?
All adults
Islamic State/ISIS
Al Qaeda
North Korea
Iran
Syria
Boko Haram
Russia
Yemen
The Republican Party
China
The Democratic Party
Saudi Arabia
Anonymous
NSA
Israel
CIA
The Catholic Church
Cuba
1: No threat
3%
3%
4%
4%
7%
6%
6%
8%
28%
8%
30%
11%
16%
15%
29%
23%
44%
21%
3%
5%
7%
7%
10%
9%
10%
11%
16%
15%
14%
16%
9%
13%
16%
20%
16%
22%
8%
12%
19%
18%
22%
14%
22%
21%
16%
25%
16%
24%
16%
20%
16%
18%
11%
21%
15%
23%
24%
26%
21%
15%
26%
16%
10%
21%
11%
17%
9%
11%
12%
9%
6%
9%
5: Imminent
threat
58%
43%
31%
31%
21%
19%
18%
15%
13%
13%
13%
11%
9%
8%
8%
8%
7%
6%
Not sure
12%
14%
14%
15%
20%
37%
18%
29%
16%
18%
16%
22%
41%
33%
20%
22%
16%
21%

following countries or organizations pose to the United States? (cont.)
Democrats
Islamic State/ISIS
Al Qaeda
North Korea
Iran
Syria
Boko Haram
Russia
Yemen
China
Saudi Arabia
Anonymous
Israel
The Catholic Church
NSA
CIA
Cuba
Republicans
Islamic State/ISIS
Al Qaeda
Iran
North Korea
Syria
Boko Haram
Russia
Yemen
China
Saudi Arabia
Anonymous
NSA
CIA
Cuba
Israel
The Catholic Church
1: No threat
3%
3%
4%
5%
16%
8%
7%
7%
10%
9%
12%
16%
20%
41%
16%
23%
26%
49%
5%
7%
10%
8%
15%
12%
9%
11%
13%
19%
18%
13%
20%
19%
13%
22%
24%
18%
11%
15%
20%
22%
18%
21%
15%
25%
22%
28%
22%
16%
17%
11%
22%
21%
18%
12%
18%
23%
26%
24%
16%
22%
15%
24%
16%
19%
17%
9%
16%
8%
12%
10%
7%
5%
1: No threat
4%
3%
2%
3%
6%
14%
5%
3%
7%
7%
9%
18%
16%
28%
17%
45%
55%
51%
2%
3%
5%
5%
9%
13%
9%
10%
9%
13%
18%
8%
15%
22%
22%
16%
15%
22%
5%
10%
15%
20%
21%
19%
15%
22%
21%
26%
27%
15%
22%
18%
29%
12%
11%
13%
12%
24%
30%
26%
23%
20%
18%
33%
20%
26%
20%
10%
12%
9%
12%
9%
4%
4%
5: Imminent
threat
51%
38%
27%
26%
22%
17%
17%
15%
10%
9%
9%
7%
7%
6%
5%
4%
4%
3%
5: Imminent
threat
72%
54%
40%
38%
28%
27%
23%
22%
21%
19%
12%
9%
9%
8%
8%
7%
6%
3%
Not sure
11%
14%
12%
15%
13%
19%
37%
18%
29%
16%
22%
39%
20%
14%
32%
20%
20%
13%
Not sure
6%
7%
8%
9%
14%
7%
31%
10%
21%
9%
15%
40%
26%
14%
12%
11%
10%
7%

Independents
Islamic State/ISIS
Al Qaeda
North Korea
Iran
Syria
Boko Haram
Russia
Yemen
NSA
CIA
China
Saudi Arabia
Anonymous
Israel
The Catholic Church
Cuba
Whites
Islamic State/ISIS
Al Qaeda
North Korea
Iran
Syria
Boko Haram
Russia
Yemen
China
Saudi Arabia
NSA
CIA
Anonymous
Israel
The Catholic Church
Cuba
1: No threat
3%
3%
5%
4%
6%
8%
7%
8%
16%
17%
21%
9%
11%
22%
18%
28%
42%
22%
3%
6%
6%
10%
8%
12%
12%
11%
9%
15%
9%
14%
13%
9%
7%
11%
15%
21%
8%
11%
17%
16%
27%
12%
19%
22%
22%
19%
21%
22%
25%
22%
15%
20%
12%
18%
15%
25%
23%
23%
21%
14%
27%
15%
7%
8%
10%
22%
16%
13%
9%
11%
10%
11%
1: No threat
2%
2%
3%
3%
6%
5%
4%
7%
28%
6%
33%
10%
16%
25%
18%
33%
48%
20%
3%
5%
7%
6%
9%
8%
9%
10%
13%
14%
16%
16%
13%
19%
9%
16%
16%
23%
8%
11%
19%
17%
22%
14%
24%
21%
17%
26%
15%
25%
21%
19%
13%
16%
11%
21%
15%
24%
26%
28%
23%
16%
28%
18%
13%
23%
9%
16%
9%
9%
8%
10%
5%
10%
5: Imminent
threat
58%
39%
31%
31%
21%
21%
20%
17%
15%
15%
14%
14%
14%
12%
12%
10%
8%
7%
5: Imminent
threat
62%
45%
32%
32%
21%
18%
18%
16%
15%
14%
12%
11%
8%
7%
7%
6%
6%
6%
Not sure
14%
16%
17%
16%
18%
33%
16%
26%
31%
27%
25%
19%
21%
22%
39%
21%
13%
20%
Not sure
11%
13%
13%
14%
20%
38%
17%
28%
15%
16%
15%
22%
33%
21%
44%
19%
15%
20%

Minorities
Islamic State/ISIS
Al Qaeda
North Korea
Iran
Syria
Boko Haram
Russia
Yemen
Anonymous
Israel
China
Saudi Arabia
NSA
CIA
The Catholic Church
Cuba
1: No threat
7%
5%
6%
6%
9%
8%
10%
19%
12%
11%
21%
12%
12%
35%
13%
20%
38%
23%
5%
6%
9%
8%
12%
11%
12%
15%
12%
10%
17%
17%
16%
16%
11%
20%
17%
21%
8%
13%
17%
19%
20%
15%
17%
19%
22%
21%
15%
22%
22%
15%
19%
18%
10%
21%
16%
22%
22%
22%
17%
12%
22%
13%
13%
11%
15%
17%
18%
7%
15%
10%
9%
7%
5: Imminent
threat
48%
37%
30%
28%
21%
20%
19%
15%
12%
12%
11%
11%
10%
9%
9%
9%
8%
5%
Not sure
16%
18%
16%
18%
21%
34%
21%
18%
29%
36%
22%
20%
22%
18%
33%
23%
17%
23%
following leaders or people pose to the United States?
All adults
Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri
Islamic State executioner Jihadi John
North Koreas Kim Jong-un
Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei
Russian President Vladimir Putin
President Barack Obama
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
Chinese President Xi Jinping
Cubas President Raul Castro
Speaker of the US House John Boehner
Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu
Pope Francis
1: No threat
3%
4%
4%
5%
7%
7%
12%
12%
15%
21%
18%
25%
5: Imminent
threat
41%
38%
34%
3%
7%
17%
23%
27%
22%
4%
36%
4%
8%
16%
28%
25%
57%
10%
12%
9%
14%
20%
16%
17%
12%
23%
12%
22%
22%
21%
16%
16%
7%
24%
11%
20%
17%
12%
9%
10%
5%
20%
18%
17%
13%
9%
9%
6%
3%
19%
12%
26%
25%
22%
22%
26%
16%
Not sure
18%
22%
16%

following leaders or people pose to the United States? (cont.)
Democrats
Khamenei
Pope Francis
Republicans
Khamenei
Pope Francis
Independents
Khamenei
Pope Francis
1: No threat
3%
5%
4%
7%
9%
8%
17%
14%
18%
21%
18%
24%
5: Imminent
threat
36%
33%
30%
4%
10%
23%
20%
22%
21%
5%
5%
26%
10%
20%
16%
59%
59%
13%
12%
13%
17%
23%
17%
12%
12%
26%
21%
17%
22%
18%
20%
8%
7%
22%
22%
14%
15%
11%
13%
5%
6%
17%
15%
12%
9%
6%
6%
5%
3%
17%
24%
19%
27%
22%
27%
11%
14%
1: No threat
2%
3%
4%
2%
5%
5%
10%
10%
14%
22%
19%
26%
5: Imminent
threat
53%
49%
44%
2%
5%
13%
30%
36%
15%
14%
4%
3%
6%
13%
39%
37%
60%
12%
8%
7%
13%
21%
19%
22%
15%
16%
20%
24%
23%
26%
13%
17%
7%
18%
32%
22%
23%
14%
7%
5%
5%
34%
25%
23%
19%
12%
5%
4%
3%
5%
10%
21%
16%
14%
16%
16%
10%
1: No threat
3%
5%
4%
7%
8%
11%
10%
10%
12%
23%
18%
25%
5: Imminent
threat
37%
36%
31%
4%
7%
14%
23%
29%
22%
24%
4%
6%
11%
18%
25%
28%
58%
13%
6%
8%
15%
20%
20%
14%
9%
13%
28%
26%
21%
18%
17%
14%
11%
15%
24%
18%
17%
13%
6%
13%
3%
20%
19%
19%
15%
12%
10%
10%
6%
15%
20%
23%
21%
20%
21%
21%
14%
Not sure
16%
22%
15%
Not sure
11%
12%
8%
Not sure
20%
23%
18%

following leaders or people pose to the United States? (cont.)
Whites
Khamenei
Pope Francis
Minorities
Khamenei
Pope Francis
1: No threat
2%
4%
3%
4%
6%
7%
11%
12%
15%
22%
18%
27%
5: Imminent
threat
45%
41%
34%
3%
6%
17%
24%
29%
22%
29%
4%
4%
7%
15%
30%
29%
60%
11%
8%
9%
13%
21%
17%
16%
12%
14%
24%
23%
24%
21%
16%
16%
7%
13%
26%
21%
19%
12%
8%
10%
3%
22%
21%
18%
13%
9%
8%
6%
3%
11%
17%
25%
24%
21%
21%
24%
14%
1: No threat
5%
6%
5%
7%
8%
9%
16%
14%
13%
20%
21%
17%
5: Imminent
threat
33%
32%
30%
3%
11%
18%
21%
23%
24%
5%
5%
12%
49%
18%
25%
17%
50%
12%
11%
16%
13%
19%
15%
19%
11%
23%
22%
19%
7%
22%
18%
18%
7%
20%
19%
13%
7%
10%
10%
10%
8%
17%
16%
11%
10%
9%
9%
8%
5%
22%
28%
28%
14%
23%
24%
29%
18%
Not sure
16%
20%
14%
Not sure
20%
19%
26%

following beliefs, movements, trends or phenomena pose to the United States?
All adults
Terrorism
Cyber attacks and espionage
Drug trafficking
Illegal immigration
Racism and bigotry
Organized crime
Islam
Global warming/climate change
Collapse of nation states
Sexism
WMD proliferation
Atheism
Gay rights
Judaism
Christianity
Womens rights
Democrats
Terrorism
Racism and bigotry
Drug trafficking
Organized crime
Illegal immigration
Sexism
Islam
WMD proliferation
Atheism
Gay rights
Judaism
Christianity
Womens rights
1: No threat
2%
3%
3%
9%
7%
4%
14%
14%
9%
17%
5%
33%
43%
45%
55%
49%
5%
4%
9%
13%
11%
13%
12%
13%
12%
17%
10%
13%
13%
12%
13%
16%
9%
16%
19%
19%
23%
25%
17%
21%
25%
23%
18%
16%
13%
13%
11%
13%
20%
27%
26%
19%
22%
22%
15%
17%
14%
13%
14%
11%
9%
5%
5%
6%
1: No threat
2%
4%
4%
6%
4%
5%
14%
15%
22%
10%
6%
41%
54%
47%
51%
54%
5%
5%
8%
10%
11%
13%
19%
15%
12%
14%
13%
14%
12%
13%
14%
13%
12%
18%
18%
19%
22%
23%
22%
22%
19%
24%
19%
14%
8%
13%
13%
12%
22%
25%
28%
22%
26%
23%
18%
17%
13%
16%
13%
10%
8%
6%
5%
7%
5: Imminent
threat
55%
39%
33%
28%
28%
26%
25%
23%
16%
14%
13%
12%
12%
7%
6%
5%
5: Imminent
threat
51%
38%
33%
33%
30%
26%
18%
17%
17%
13%
11%
8%
7%
6%
8%
5%
Not sure
9%
11%
10%
11%
10%
10%
16%
12%
24%
16%
39%
15%
11%
18%
11%
11%
Not sure
8%
10%
9%
10%
8%
9%
9%
15%
16%
24%
38%
13%
10%
16%
10%
10%

following beliefs, movements, trends or phenomena pose to the United States? (cont.)
Republicans
Terrorism
Illegal immigration
Drug trafficking
Islam
Organized crime
Racism and bigotry
Gay rights
Atheism
WMD proliferation
Sexism
Judaism
Womens rights
Christianity
Independents
Terrorism
Drug trafficking
Illegal immigration
Racism and bigotry
Islam
Organized crime
WMD proliferation
Sexism
Atheism
Gay rights
Christianity
Judaism
Womens rights
1: No threat
1%
2%
4%
2%
6%
2%
9%
31%
26%
4%
10%
27%
21%
49%
45%
67%
5%
3%
8%
7%
10%
15%
16%
16%
14%
9%
12%
19%
22%
12%
21%
13%
6%
18%
17%
19%
17%
27%
28%
17%
20%
19%
27%
24%
26%
13%
17%
7%
21%
30%
26%
29%
20%
26%
19%
12%
15%
17%
17%
12%
9%
5%
7%
5%
1: No threat
4%
2%
3%
8%
10%
15%
4%
11%
10%
8%
19%
33%
42%
53%
43%
49%
5%
6%
10%
13%
8%
14%
16%
13%
9%
8%
13%
11%
10%
10%
15%
19%
11%
14%
18%
19%
25%
16%
24%
26%
29%
17%
26%
18%
16%
13%
13%
12%
17%
26%
24%
15%
22%
13%
17%
16%
10%
16%
14%
9%
8%
5%
6%
3%
5: Imminent
threat
64%
44%
41%
39%
38%
27%
22%
19%
18%
17%
17%
12%
12%
8%
5%
3%
Not sure
3%
4%
5%
4%
9%
4%
6%
5%
8%
34%
18%
7%
9%
12%
5%
4%
5: Imminent
Not sure
threat
53%
10%
40%
13%
33%
12%
33%
12%
27%
8%
26%
15%
25%
14%
21%
12%
21%
21%
17%
34%
14%
14%
13%
16%
13%
11%
9%
10%
6%
17%
6%
11%

following beliefs, movements, trends or phenomena pose to the United States? (cont.)
Whites
Terrorism
Drug trafficking
Illegal immigration
Islam
Racism and bigotry
Organized crime
Sexism
WMD proliferation
Atheism
Gay rights
Judaism
Christianity
Womens rights
Minorities
Terrorism
Racism and bigotry
Drug trafficking
Organized crime
Islam
Illegal immigration
Sexism
WMD proliferation
Atheism
Gay rights
Christianity
Judaism
Womens rights
1: No threat
2%
2%
3%
7%
13%
6%
3%
16%
9%
17%
5%
36%
43%
48%
59%
52%
3%
5%
8%
13%
12%
12%
13%
14%
12%
19%
8%
13%
13%
12%
13%
17%
10%
17%
19%
19%
16%
25%
26%
24%
25%
25%
19%
15%
13%
12%
10%
14%
21%
28%
27%
19%
16%
24%
23%
17%
16%
12%
15%
10%
9%
4%
4%
4%
1: No threat
3%
5%
8%
3%
9%
5%
16%
10%
14%
17%
5%
27%
42%
47%
39%
43%
8%
4%
8%
10%
9%
13%
11%
11%
15%
13%
14%
12%
12%
12%
12%
14%
8%
15%
18%
21%
17%
21%
19%
25%
20%
20%
18%
19%
13%
12%
15%
11%
17%
24%
19%
24%
18%
20%
13%
12%
21%
15%
13%
12%
9%
6%
7%
9%
5: Imminent
threat
57%
40%
35%
34%
28%
25%
25%
20%
15%
14%
14%
13%
13%
6%
4%
4%
5: Imminent
threat
51%
37%
33%
30%
29%
26%
20%
17%
16%
14%
12%
11%
10%
10%
8%
8%
Not sure
7%
9%
8%
9%
15%
9%
8%
9%
24%
13%
39%
13%
10%
17%
9%
10%
Not sure
13%
15%
14%
14%
17%
15%
20%
25%
15%
21%
38%
19%
14%
14%
19%
14%

How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals
The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter \,
i.e., Y|~Bin(n,), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of yes, or 1, observed
in the sample, so that the sample mean (y ) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion . This model is
often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the Bayesian and the Classical framework.
The Bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior
distribution. The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for adjusted
after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is ones knowledge base updated using the
latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a
beta distribution ((/y)~(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.
Our credibility interval for is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent
our belief about which are the most plausible values for given our updated knowledge base. There are different
ways to calculate these intervals based on (/y). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in
the survey, analogous to what is done within the Classical framework, we will compute the largest possible
credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2.
Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by,
approximately:
For this poll, the Bayesian Credibility Interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to
account for complex weighting2
Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below. Ipsos does not publish data for base sizes
(sample sizes) below 100.
Sample size
2,000
1,500
1,000
750
500
350
200
100
Credibility intervals
2.5
2.9
3.5
4.1
5.0
6.0
7.9
11.2
1 Bayesian
Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN:
158488388X | 2003
2 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.

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Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

Threats to the United States 03.24.2015

THREATS TO THE UNITED STATES

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

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