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    The document discusses reliability engineering techniques for product design. It explains that evaluating and comparing alternative designs to select the one with the greatest predicted reliability is an effective design solution. The designer should consider making small improvements to the original design, as this iterative approach can maximize reliability. Probabilistic design methods can be applied to quantify reliability for any engineering problem where variability dominates and component failure is critical. Stress-strain analysis must be performed to evaluate failure modes like stress rupture. The document provides a case study on the probabilistic design of a solenoid assembly, identifying design variables, determining stress distributions using variance equations, and developing a probabilistic model to predict failure probabilities.

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    Case Studies

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    yashar2500
    59 views49 pages
    The document discusses reliability engineering techniques for product design. It explains that evaluating and comparing alternative designs to select the one with the greatest predicted reliability is an effective design solution. The designer should consider making small improvements to the original design, as this iterative approach can maximize reliability. Probabilistic design methods can be applied to quantify reliability for any engineering problem where variability dominates and component failure is critical. Stress-strain analysis must be performed to evaluate failure modes like stress rupture. The document provides a case study on the probabilistic design of a solenoid assembly, identifying design variables, determining stress distributions using variance equations, and developing a probabilistic model to predict failure probabilities.

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    The document discusses reliability engineering techniques for product design. It explains that evaluating and comparing alternative designs to select the one with the greatest predicted reliability is an effective design solution. The designer should consider making small improvements to the original design, as this iterative approach can maximize reliability. Probabilistic design methods can be applied to quantify reliability for any engineering problem where variability dominates and component failure is critical. Stress-strain analysis must be performed to evaluate failure modes like stress rupture. The document provides a case study on the probabilistic design of a solenoid assembly, identifying design variables, determining stress distributions using variance equations, and developing a probabilistic model to predict failure probabilities.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    59 views49 pages

    Case Studies

    Uploaded by

    yashar2500
    The document discusses reliability engineering techniques for product design. It explains that evaluating and comparing alternative designs to select the one with the greatest predicted reliability is an effective design solution. The designer should consider making small improvements to the original design, as this iterative approach can maximize reliability. Probabilistic design methods can be applied to quantify reliability for any engineering problem where variability dominates and component failure is critical. Stress-strain analysis must be performed to evaluate failure modes like stress rupture. The document provides a case study on the probabilistic design of a solenoid assembly, identifying design variables, determining stress distributions using variance equations, and developing a probabilistic model to predict failure probabilities.

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    of 49

    |

    I
    I
    I

    stldies 20i
    "se
    rbiliry to meertherargerrequiremenrs.
    Evatuating
    andcomparing
    alternative
    desiqns
    andchoosing
    rheonewirhthegrearerr
    predicred
    retiabrliry
    ui;t p.,i;;;;';;"
    effecri\edesrgn
    solurion.rnd rns is rtreapprouclua,ocu;; ;";; i;;;;:r:;;;:"

    is;'r,ii;'""
    | ,,,ifiillll;:nvorhers\rorkinsinrhisarel)eieaaanaH'lu,".i

    lJlg/..rAn^alternativeapproachlorhedesignerselecringrhedesignwiththehighestrcliaf,:l:
    "
    schemes
    isromakesmalrredeiign
    impr""".1",ln ii.
    [,_
    !ll']t
    ""rberofdesrsn
    ongrnaldesign,
    especially
    ifproducrdevetopmennmEi.
    c
    urO
    bromaximize
    theimprovement
    in reliability.
    thist.i"g""fri.*a UV.",iV ,Vrrc.r ti.
    changes
    to thedesign
    configuration
    (Clausing,I 99qf.attf,"ret lriedJ ir-difliy
    bemeasured
    effecrively,
    thedesignparameters
    ";;"",
    th"t a"t
    *ii"Oiiitv l"ibe.-""0
    the controland verification
    "^ii"
    of theseparameters
    (along
    wirtr an efieqiveproJucr
    devetopmenr
    slralegy)wilt leadro rheaflainment .!rla . J..;g"V?r"r"l'"i,
    t996).The-designer
    "
    shourdkeeprhisin-Eindwli""r d"riil;;;;i;C,;rij'g;;:;
    alggchjdaqlaria&abour rhecriricatparametelytrroulloui
    itre pioau"i J.ffi:mentprocess

    proceeding
    before
    w-ii6'iilliii$Gfr,.

    F
    tl
    hb

    D.
    r,

    t
    I
    I

    lI

    ,
    I

    *lr-i.*rn."i ir

    r,ifi ..ri-"iiiii,
    at thedesignstageis mainlythe apptr(luonor aoglneeflnt
    commonsense
    couDled
    $fh alnericulous
    attentionro rrivialdetails(Ca e;. l9g6r'l
    \lhe rangeof iroblemsrhar;E6abilisrictechniques
    c/n te apptiedto is vasr,
    ba.sicalty
    anywhere
    wherevariabiirydominarss
    tr,", i,rotr., aorniii,.iiri" iornionenliscriticalandif thenriii66Gi-arinot wetttd", ,h";
    lh;;;;;;;j;;;;il,
    be includedin the analysis.Underthesesorrsof requirements,
    it i,
    t
    quandfyrhe retiabitiryand safetyof engineering
    .;p"";"i;:';;"0;ffi;; "rr""li"i
    analysis
    mustbperformed
    (Weberand rinny. test;. tn rerrniof SSI;;;iil;;"
    mainapplication
    modesar:
    . Stress
    rupture- ductileand brittlefracturefor simpleandcomDlex
    sressee
    . Assembty.fearures
    _ torquedconnections.
    .r,.inr.'nt.,,o"p nii. .i,;;r-;i;.
    _
    otherweaklink mechanisms.
    . )
    "".
    (9iutrcri
    I",.resr.stressdistributions
    i
    injointsdueto thematinc
    "" """ "rGI'"rto b investisared.
    Stresses
    are
    inducedby d"-;;;;i;
    ::.*:::::-i.::T^bly-T
    operation
    andhaveefectssimilarto
    residual
    stre"* e"i"., ljljl. iii.l, * i.oiil

    l* $::,:
    iT;:ilJ":Jffi
    Ht:tT:":ili
    r.jl;n*r;.1^:
    *i:;li*;
    buckringvibration
    or

    i6made
    p*,iur.

    "ii"e ,i.'#i#]
    ill:;tratetheapplication
    ofthemerhodolosv
    toanumber
    of
    ffxill1;".:ff.".1'1,
    [:ll;:5.J**"*

    4.8.1Solengid
    torquesetting

    ff;ffii"?"'';.T:ixl"J;ll'J:X",:1.:i:Tiifi"i,:Tffi
    JITJj:
    *T;ii:

    204 Darigning
    rellabl
    produds

    ??

    T
    a

    Flglr4.40Solenoid
    arEngement
    onassembiv
    couldfail at theweakest
    section

    by ,trcssn
    secondry
    rhat
    thcpre.ro;d,
    i;;; ;i" ;;;iii"i:s:.1:ffi:Tlj,ll

    (b

    ::i:";i::

    :lr#:,l.ll','ii.Jil,J
    +i:x",,fl'f"in:i:.,:*.;:
    n:'*jli
    i:Tw;ffi
    these
    twocompetins
    failuremodes

    l":l;";#;"1".n:"t"tt

    "'-i' "-i'.iiliiiiri

    Themakrialusedfor thesolenoid
    bodyis 220MOZ
    frcecuttingstecl.It hasa

    minimumyietdsrrcnsrh
    srmn= J4OMpa
    ani a rninir". p-"r'rii;"r, lp., j j,ioiiili
    fo^r
    rhesi2eof barsrock(BS970.l99t ). Theoutsia.aii..,.., o.
    u, iriii.l;.f ...,ioi
    of th,M14
    x 1.5thread
    istumedroth; tolerance
    .p""in.a tfr"n.la" !i"rn"i"r,;
    is drilledro toteranco,
    Boththcsolenoid
    "na
    bodyana-frouring
    plliialfi,l
    solenoid
    tuassembled
    usinganaL tootwith; clut"f,**friri.."." ""arrriurn
    gi"irg u-ioii *"it*

    r'"tr'i"iil"ieii
    J'eJe?'":'ii
    ilJl:ff.':fiJfJ:fisi:*'"i:$T'fiT?;
    ;Tl;
    ProbabiI irtic design apqoech
    Sarcrsor flst sssenbly
    showsrh Suess-strengrh
    (SSI)diag]rams
    lnrcrference
    for rhc lwo
    il!^T.",1.il
    assembty
    operadonfajluremodes,Theinstanraneous
    stresson tie reliefsccrionon

    rc".;r.'i'.*
    l.a""i"tii
    "ppr.a
    I::,n[T''J'.":*ffi;,1
    :ij1j;"H*:*
    ,u, tr,i.i,,io*n
    li irel;;,"
    ;i"iiiir;filhl'"llJ:,*:,'ffi
    fi ii,:'ji?j,';
    ar a"na
    maxrmumduring rhe assembl'operdlion.If th.
    str$s.it will not fail by stress
    rupturelat;r in life

    ."_f"i,
    "ornpon.ni

    ,ii"

    Flgur.4.4l SSmo

    An apprcxrmate
    M, for a given pr
    for bolts and fal
    found in the con
    wherel

    '=7=;@=4
    Mr

    (4.10)
    (4.11)

    Theftfore,comb

    Catestudies 205
    (a) Situa on on fl't asmbty
    POF

    st&/Btrngtil

    (b)Sliuafgnatterr6taradon
    ot shsar6trss
    PDF

    Slr!3dstr.nglh

    FaIurs
    Flgore4.41SSI
    mode
    sforthesoleno
    d asrmbly
    lailure
    modes
    ,{ = cross_sectional
    area
    "/ = polar secondmomentofarea.
    An approximale
    relarionshipiscommonly
    usedtodelermine
    lhelorqueforassemblv.
    for.r grvenpre-toad.r(shistey and Mischke.t9s6r
    ,, i,
    "v. bohs and fasrener,dererminedfrom experimcnr
    ror
    ",;;;;,;;;;',";
    i. " ,.biJi;
    ;;';;i"i;;;
    found in the contactingsuriacesof th parts on
    ""d
    assembly.
    uhere:

    KFD

    ta1)\

    1{ : rorquecoefficient(or nut factor).


    Thereforc.combiningthe abovequationsin rerms
    ofthe shearstressgives:

    32KFDr
    1(D4

    d!)

    \4.73)

    206 Dsigning
    roliableproducts
    The principaistresscs
    at the reliefsccrion..! and 12,are tOundfrom:

    \,-

    05.. !,/tl5\, r _.

    \4.74)

    lT"1'T,j,:*il:i;:"i[T1'::;];:i':i::.iii;*:li,ilxiillii'iii,ii,
    o=r(sr' \,f;f;,

    14.75)

    Stressin seftice

    lffi
    ?i6s'I$ilffffi'fri$#fit
    *;:rt*a"Jrilff
    t',,.,H:''i*i1f
    [il#,#]::'j]:'"r':'"",::

    n= p ( a > 0 . 5 . s t . " , )

    14.76)

    Determiningthe designvariables

    Bltore a prohihilistic model r.rn be dcveluped.


    thc variablcsinvol\cd mun be
    dcrrmined.
    lr is

    assumed
    lhal thevariables
    ril foff"* ,f,. l"r."l aiurii"ii"" ,,ii
    tharthcyurcstiri*icr y indepcndenr.
    i.c.noLcorrehled
    i" ,"1*"1.-ii,"."",i.r'"i
    thc prc-toad.
    F. usrngan.rir lool with a clurch,,
    mcan,whichgivcsthc coefficient
    "ppro*,r"t.ly;.ii;;_;;',tl,i
    of variarion,C,,= 1y.
    i, 35sg.;n,!t ;;;";; ,;t.
    range.thereforei

    (4.77)
    For thc torquecoemcient.f. reportedvaluesrangefrom
    0.153(o 0.128for cadmium

    i;:tl"iJ:::,;1kfiilor

    Flgur4.42P
    The shill

    Thcr clolc:

    li follows rh

    024(shisrev
    and
    rii*t't"'r's;)iiffi'"' ;F"i;i;;

    px :0.24

    and oK = 0.0292

    Similffly, Ii
    provided in

    i:J.,:::;*t1li,tff
    :;ilill;?;ll#i;
    ]ifdurins
    i;i"ffi
    ::,liTH?:,;iff
    'J;:li;*[:
    lnrgesl
    stimare
    (orwo'.l case)
    anricipaled
    p,.ar"iri,, |".l-C;i""

    ,r,iiii'l
    'r,"
    =
    "
    0.03mm is lurned,rhe material
    to p,o"""" ,t"r
    :lT:lsl:n, 1, U l2-+
    thegeometry
    toprocess
    "un
    .i.r,so: l. en oajr,;rei
    ;r;:
    "nd

    :ilJl ffiA"=*].

    Adjustedrolerance: Desientolerance(r) = * * = 0 , ,

    isk. to gjve
    The stand

    :itdf#i1il1i+',r:ili:*tilr$:*
    *1,*,,,'',.;i;i,1ffi

    Case
    studi.s 207

    runmloaonrro-

    a.74)

    PROCESa
    cAPAgtLtw ritAP
    0,

    P, to
    Drnc

    1,75)

    Frlhe
    lie.
    lnl
    ice
    k-

    lor
    f:
    F
    I
    F
    I
    ;
    )

    o0ot
    DTUGEA/DUEitsroN
    lm)
    process
    Flgure4.42
    capabil
    tym6pfortuming/borirg
    The shifredstandarddeviadon./, for
    th
    *
    toleranceon lhe diameter.
    ,. can rnen be predicredf.or .qu"tion
    4.2idittnsional

    oor:-r'oY=
    =
    o.oo28
    mm
    ";-12t2';t'" Therefore:
    pD = l2ftm

    and oD = 0.002gmm
    It followsthat for the radius,f, the variability
    .. halfofthat ofthe
    lr, = 6mm and a,=0.0014mm
    Similarly. for the inrernal diameter.,,L
    the

    diameter,Di

    pro,
    idea
    inFigure.+.+i.
    n;i;;;'il,;i:'."p#;' j:XXtJ':l
    ff :,,:T.*l'lj";
    ls glvenasa .+' only,
    (7)
    Adjustedtolence= Designtolerance
    +0.2
    hp.Ep
    iliiJ x ll. 5 = + 0 1 6 2 m6
    A riskvalue.,4
    = 1.02.
    is inlerpolated
    for a
    onmm and rheadiusred
    roreranceThis vdtueagaindefauhs," ,n.o]T:t]:l-:f
    component
    ''
    manufacturing
    "'variability
    risk,to give4- = 1.02.
    Thestandard
    deviation
    for onehslf of thercleranc
    canbeestimated
    by:

    Therefore,

    .,,_ | r / ?!.qr.=
    \+g

    =o.oo87
    mm

    pd t 9.1mm and o/ = 0.0087mm

    208 Designing
    reliableproduct5
    DRILIING PROCESSCAPAATLIY [,tAP

    indcpcnde

    The variab
    Normal dis

    oro,n.l"
    r*r

    Considerlh

    Figure
    4.43 Process
    capabiiry
    mapfordiUing

    Determiningthe strcssdistributionusingthe va anceequation

    Assumingtharall rhc variabtcs


    followa Normaldistribution.
    I proba;ilislicmodcl
    !.rn f'c crerrcLl
    to dcrermrnc
    !he slrc,, dishbuti,,nfor Lhedr,t iailuren),\lc usin,l
    rhe\JnJnccc-qurli(,n
    Jnd n,l!ing u,inglhc Frnrr"Oiner*ce V.rfr.A r*e nppenJii
    Xl)._Thefunctionfor the yl, Mlrcr stress.1_.on tirrt asc.tty ur *,e sj.noijiJi,,n
    is takcn from cquation4.75.tnd is givcn by:

    and

    For the firs

    . : l(0.5r+ y6-r,, + ;;. + 10.s, v6.zt, +;1.


    - 105,, /025..?, -),,0s._ /u25\:.
    4F
    -- - t,t'
    t\tD.

    .nd

    -:

    ,4?bl

    Letting rhe

    32K1:Dr
    -lD" ,f)

    As therearefive variablcsinvolvcd.f.. ](. ,, I and 4 the varianceequarionbecomes:

    e+(#l4",',r,,n,
    ",:lG*|,,.(f)' rr.(,#l*"t(,a)'
    The Finite DitrerenccMethodcan bc used10approximatceachlrm in this
    equarion
    by srngthe diffrenceequrtion for rhe first partinl derivarive.The values
    of the
    lunction a1.rwopoinrs cirher side ofthc poinl ofinterest, k, are derermined,
    fr, r
    ind)k r. Theseareequxltyspacedby an jncrementAr. Thefinitedl ferenceequition
    approximaresrhe value of rhe parrial dcrivarivcby taking rhe a;tf"."n"" of tn""
    valuesand dividing by the incrcmentrange.The rerms subscripreaby i ind;caie

    Repeating I

    Casestudies
    j:::_o'lt]..r.i, Inci:menred
    by a\, ror catcularins.rL,r
    , and f.
    Inoenudentvarirbles
    consrrnrat lherrI \ajuepornl\.

    . hordin8rheorhcr

    , ,.
    /9)
    "
    \ox, /\ ' " 2Ay "
    Tle van.rbles/'. K. D, . and ,1are
    ,r assur

    Normarris,rihu,,on
    \air;
    iil;;;";:;;;:li,:l;,'"..'j;lTT.Tl,[:i.lj:;1",,*
    r.^ N(t,r,0.ltrF)
    N
    _
    K N(0.24,0.0292)
    , _ ,v(t2.0.0028)mm

    bn
    c model
    lc using
    ppendrx

    -R- /v(6,0.0014)
    mm
    D _ lr'(9.1,0.001i7)
    mm
    rl: poinrr, ro he rhemeanvarue
    of I variabre
    ::l-.j:: otthevariable.
    llnd x, _. dnd x, , rhe
    er(rremes
    Theexlremescan
    be
    roreachvarrable
    bvarsumins
    rhe]exist+4' a$r) rromth.;;;:;il:'.::::-rned
    ee
    eeoo
    orsiruat,ons:
    Forcxampre.
    for theprc.il;;;;;.;':;:'.:::::'pproximarer'
    (Iremes
    become
    (for pr. = l0off)N)l
    F rrr= 1 4 0 0 0 N
    4-r = 6000N
    and
    AF = 4(1000)- 4000N
    For thefirsrvariable,
    F. in Equation4.ti4.

    f0L ) * r . r , r _ 2 ,

    1478)

    2Al'
    \'J? /
    Letting the variablei. be ils maximum
    valur

    mcan
    varues.
    L, ;.;;;;;;;; i";;:..,Ti lffl[:
    sives
    Thereforc,

    Repeatingthe
    ( 41e)
    rf the

    lnese

    ;1.','"

    L*,t=423.6x 106 and Z*


    r= t8t.Sx 106

    kepr
    anhe,r

    210 Designing
    reliableproducts
    The meanvaluc ol the ro, Mh6 srrcsscan be approximoredby subsritlrringin lhc
    meanvaluesol-cnchvariablein eq alion 4.78ro give:

    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0

    Pz:3026MPa
    Therefore,lhe loadingstresscan be approximatedby:
    Z - N(302.6.35.6)
    MP.r
    Thc !,, Mircr stress,a. is thcn dcterminedforvariousvaluesol pretoad. F. usingthe
    abovcncthod. Equally,wc could hirveusedMonlc Carlo Simulariorro derermineur
    answcrIor the stressstandarddcviation.The answerusing this approachjs in h!.t
    d/
    16MPa overa numbcroltrit runs.
    -

    Stress-Strcngthlnterference(SSt)models
    A statislicalrcprcsentrtionofthe yicld strengthfor BS220M07is nol .rvaihbteihowcver.the coeflicicnlol varintion,C,. for thc yiekj strenglhofsteelsis conrmonlygivn
    as0.08(Furman,
    I98l). I.or conveDicncc.
    theparamelcrs
    ofthe Nornraldistributrcn
    will be calculalcd
    by iNsumingthat rhc minimumvaluch ,3 standarddevialions
    fiom the xpcctcdmcunvalue(Cableand Virene. 1967):
    It.,n = irs,

    3o.r,

    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0

    340: /,rj - 3(0.01i/,t,)


    /rr, : :--

    ti90re4.4

    = 447MPr

    lrnd

    The reli.

    d\.,.=0.08x447=t6Mpr
    The yicld strengthfor 220M07san b approximarcdby:
    s) - N(417.36)Mpr
    ln the stressrupture case.the intcrfcrcnceof rhe strcss,Z, rnd slrcnglh,S'r. both
    following .r Nonnal distribuiioncan be dterminedfrom the couplingequrtioni

    t;

    V-sr
    and the reliabilily. R. can be determincdas:
    n:

    isscmbly
    of 0.999

    Determ

    +di

    Th max
    lypically

    osND(,

    Fof rhe looseningcasc.the probabiiityrhal rhe loadingslrcssis lsstban a unique


    valueof stress(0.5S1nin)
    is used,givenby the lbllowing cquaiion:
    l-ll-l

    /o sV''" /r\

    Ur
    the reliability.R. againbeingdeterminedby:
    n : I

    O5p(z)

    ./

    The mca

    Case
    studies 2ll
    I the

    '|
    0.99
    0.98
    0.97
    0,96
    0.95
    0.94
    0.93
    0,92
    0 ,9 1
    0 ,0
    0.89
    0.88
    0,87
    0.86
    0.85
    0.84
    0.83
    0.82
    0 .E 1

    l*-----------.--i

    ! rhe

    facr

    itn
    !on

    25

    30

    4A

    U.an to|quo (it ) (Nm)


    Figure
    4.44optmunvalue
    ol meafapptedtooue
    The reliabilitiesdueto the competingfailuremodesof stress
    rupturand loosening
    can be superjmposed
    on a graph againsrmeanrorque.M. as shownin Fiaure
    4.1+i

    ^n

    olh

    opumum
    varue
    canthenbeselecred
    bssed.onJh;:_"r:$;Ifi;J,i:;:,lHl

    :I1X!?';:l'T,ii^=
    iT?::'#

    i'"i
    ilil;
    scheme.
    anobviou;
    im;;;;";; ;;,i;";i"1f;,J',t1""',ff:1:::'fi[: ::,',,,::
    internaldiameter
    by redminglo finirhedsrTe
    Deteministic design apprcach

    ;xi.:lift?[,T:;,j:i;i;::";ilIliiil,l,li
    Iue

    pr6opo(ion
    or,he
    proo,
    ,oar.
    Fe

    Fm*= o.eFe
    = 0.es?nin - ar\=o.n
    x 106
    x;(0.012,_ 0.00elr)
    ito,
    "too
    = 12976N
    The meanpreload, pF, appliedcar be found from:

    pF = 12976 3(0.1x 129?6)= 9081N

    products
    212 Derlgning
    reliable

    fl'

    1i

    'l

    \%)

    Flgure4.46
    F K D td
    O3tgnvadabt

    Flgure
    4,45Sensitivity
    (forF= 10000N)
    analysis
    oithestrcr5
    onI rstassembiy
    Themesnor tsrgetassembly
    torqueis calculated
    fromequation4.72:
    p M = l L K .p F. pD

    pM = 0.24x 9083x 0.012= 26.2Nm


    Theassembly
    torque,M, is l07olowerusingthe deterministic
    approach
    thanthat
    usingprobabilistic
    anslysis.
    This wouldresultin moreof the solenoids
    becomins
    Iooseandfailingm service.
    approximatc\2qofrom Figure4.44.

    Sensitivity analysis
    Thecontribution
    ofeachvariable
    to thefrnalstress
    dhtributio[in thecase
    of stress
    rupture
    canbeexamined
    usingsensitivity
    analysh,
    Fromthevariance
    equation:
    x lorr=(9.ls5xto'a)+ (3.5417
    x 1ot4\
    4. = t.2674
    + (t17265,2)
    + (13?8.3)
    + (439235.7)

    glven ut
    4 describ
    the sectio
    sectiond!
    material(i
    the load (
    statubfy r

    ( s) = 6 ,r

    safetybac
    that l0 00
    will be fc

    sv- w(2
    Figure4

    ally durint

    Lo.d (N)

    Therefore,
    !hcontributionof thepre-load,
    F, to theoverallstress
    is givenby:

    e00J---:

    x l0 ' "
    9.155
    Lz6:,4;7ir';xtoo=721%
    Thesameprocess
    canbeprformed
    withtheothervariables
    to provideFigure4.45.It
    showsth6t tle largestvarianc
    contdbutionis providedby the torqueon assembly
    whichafrects
    theDre"load.
    a

    ,ao=

    4,8.2Footpedaloptimumdesign
    The objective of this casestudy is to determinethe optimum depth, I, of the foot pedal
    sectionas shown in Figure4.40 using sraricprobabilisticdesignmerbod,.w; are

    31ef=450F!00F
    I5OT=TF

    o,_
    I

    Ft

    Figur4.47

    Casestudies 21i

    ft'
    I

    l-a

    6=' ' ?1o5m m


    l<

    tlW
    l*-

    ^o-.-

    - ,,]

    Figwe4,45tootpedalarangement

    ii;;lh1;.ili*.-.i#i#filli,l.-1t.;l:i;"rr",.r

    il{fqtitr**ri
    iii*$*g$g*H+'"-.t;l'll
    '#;::#f

    il,j,:lffi
    $r+H#':;;4,:ff
    ['.","^i.iffi
    ,,;liffi; l,'.'ffil
    ;#:i:'lTj"l
    ;":?,:i,i:Jf.T
    i:[.;l.j;l::ff::1H1X:

    Lo.d (N)

    Figure4.47Typica
    oadhstory
    durngoperarion
    ol theroorpeoal

    214 Designing
    reliableproductt
    pedalwill be subJectcd
    to no moreth.n i000 indcpendenttoadappticarjons
    duringits
    clesigned
    scrvicelife.

    Determining the load distribution

    Thereis sulilcientinformalionto gneralca pDF for the load assuminsth.r the load
    hi,rof)o!(r rh( fimeinrervat.
    li\represenrrli\eofrhracrualt,,aJhi,ioryrnsenice.
    Thc approachuscdwasdiscusscd
    in Section4.3.3.Firsl we candividethe loadon rh
    r-ai(is into classcswith a classwidrh, 1,, of 30N for conveniencc.
    Bv summinsthe
    Jmounrof rimr.,. rh.rrlher,):ld,jrnatfa s u rrhrnerth.ta,s,uc crn oirain rrrel-urir.
    mcasureof thc load frequncywirh respecrto the limc interval.Z For examDle.th.
    shadedstrip in Figure4.47represents
    thc Inrd classtiom :7lr rd .100N \ irh d mid_
    classvalueof 285N. The approximxteamounl of timc that th sisnnlis wilhin thrs
    load classis approximarely
    ?.9% ol rhe lotrl Lrme./ Rcpeatin;lhi! pfoce,\tor
    exchload classbuilds up a frequencydistributiontbr the bad in perccnugeof rhc
    total.as shownin F_igurc
    4.48.
    From a visual inspccrionof the hislogram,it is evidentthat th load frequenc,
    approachcszero al zero lo,ld and is slightly skcwedto rhc lefi. Thc 2-paramcrcr
    Weibulldislributioncan be effeclivclyused1()modclthis shapeoffrequencydislribution with a zcfo rhreshold.For conciscncss,
    it is thc only disrributiontypc considercd,
    althoughcomparisonofthc loaddatawith theLognormaldistributionmayalsobepeF
    lbrmed.The frcquencywrlucsin ligure 4.48are in pcrcentages
    to onedecimrl pl;c..
    but we ctn simplily for the processof filling the dhtributionalmodelto the data b,
    multjplyingthc liequencyby l0 to convertro wholenumbrs.thcreforeN : 1000.
    TheLmalysisol
    thefrequency
    dalaisshowninTable4.12.Notc thc usofthc Median
    R:rnk equalion,commonlyusedfor bolh Weibull distribulions.Linear rcctilication
    cquarionsproviddin AppendixX for thc 2-paramctcrWeibull model arc usedt(r

    75
    105
    |] 5
    225
    255
    2lJ5
    : l15
    175

    525
    5r 5

    10

    2-param

    d_

    s K p F p p * F H ; g g $ g $ HH 6A 63C R
    Loadmid-ctass(neMoirs)
    Figure4.48 Loadtrequency
    d stribuiion
    for thefootpeda

    Figure4.

    casestudies 215
    Trb l.a,lz Ana lv ns of t oJ df t equem y dar dandpt o
    rhstoyrrnnstnrlhc:-par.merer\leihdldiqrnbulon
    (%)

    ( x l0)

    (4
    0.J
    0,9
    2. 6
    2.4

    15
    t 05
    r 35
    165
    195
    225
    285
    315
    345
    175
    405
    435
    495
    52s
    555
    5ti5
    615
    ?05
    735
    165

    7, 9

    6. 8

    2. 9
    2. 7
    2. 2
    t,8

    5
    26

    59
    79
    83
    76
    52
    35
    29
    2?
    22
    lli

    l4

    t.8
    I

    l8
    ll
    t0

    t0 8
    t72
    241
    100
    379
    557
    631
    701
    750
    E02
    ti3?
    866
    893
    9 t5
    933
    947
    961
    919
    990

    r000

    0l

    0,0047
    0.0137
    0.0:t97
    0,0637
    0.1071
    0.2406
    0.2996
    0.3785
    0.4735
    0 5565
    0.6324
    0.7004
    0.E 0t4
    0.It364
    0.8654
    0,8923
    0.9143
    09323
    0,9601
    0,9?E3
    0.y)03
    0.9993

    l ni mrd_cl A srInl nll rl - 4,


    l l a\i rl
    1.8061
    4,3175
    4,6540
    4.$53
    5.r059
    5 2134
    5.4t61
    5.54t3
    5,6525
    5.?526
    5l i 4t5
    5,9270
    6.0019
    6,0153
    6.1420
    6,2046
    6.2634
    6 3190
    6,17t6
    6.4693
    6,5141
    6.5582
    6.5999
    6,6J99

    -5.3578
    4.283J
    ,3.2062
    -2 7208
    -2.t720
    1.6700
    -1,2902
    -1.0325
    -07431
    -0 2070
    0,0008
    0.t861
    0.3249
    0.4802
    0 5935
    0.6959
    0l i 0t3
    0,8989
    0.9905
    L073t
    t.t7t4
    r.3420
    1,5338
    r,91130

    :,"ffi'
    ;TllTi{r#ffi
    ,*",-l#
    u:
    *{t{:i'.*.:n,r*ll'l
    :il',f"Tl,T:n:ff
    l,:

    Xl*:::*"t"*l'***1i"ilff
    1'i",,J1.**Lt
    ti
    -1

    y = 2 .4 4 1 5 t-1 4 .A1 3

    !-3

    3 .5

    45
    5.5
    |n(mrd{ra$)(newlons)

    Figure4.49 Linear
    regression
    fo. the2_paramter
    Weibultrarsrormed
    toadfrequency
    dara

    216 Designing
    reliableproduds
    The charactcristicvalue.P, and shapeparamter,/r, lbr the 2,parametrWibuU
    distribution can bc dctcrmined from the equation for thc lire in the form
    I = ,.11r+,10 and liom the equationsgivenin AppendixX, lvherel
    /

    / t4qt\\,
    ,.r . - n/ ( 40\
    4 r ) =*P( - | 2 4 . J)

    Deteml

    tion4.81

    r ./rr \

    i=At=2.48
    Therefore,thc io.d, .li can be characterized
    by a 2-paramclcrWeibull distribulion
    F"/(39r.3,2.48)N
    The equivaient
    meanl1I = 347.1Nand o/ = 149.6N.
    Wc can compnrethe calculated2-paramelerWeibulldi$tributionwith the original
    ircqucncydistributionby multiplyinglhe /(.r) or PDF by the scdlingfaclor. Nr1...rs
    dclcrminedIiom equation4.86.The variarc..y,is lhc mid-cldssvalueovr the load
    range.Also note thal the population,N. is dividcd by l0 to changethe frcqucncy
    back to a percentage
    value.The resul!sof this cxcrci$eare shownin Figurc4.50.

    rs grvcno

    ,r= N" f :)(l) '*r( f{) )


    \r"/ \''l
    \ \''l
    '/

    =l;

    l00O . i 2.48\/

    '
    ,' ,(f r)(, -l '"t *'(-(+)
    .

    2d(

    . rio

    .)

    Thcrclbr

    10

    -Ee

    2-paramt6r

    &-

    dislribution

    Equation
    mined th
    t50mm I
    ofth foc

    :
    E3

    The widl
    !

    ' s p p p p p N $ H: $ I c $ E q B s H g : E F p F
    (newtons)
    Loadmid-class

    Figure
    4.50Comparrson
    oi thecacuated2 paramelr
    Weibudnribulion
    withtheorgin.lloadIrqunry

    foreinsr

    ihe weig
    Bccau
    geomelr

    Case
    studies2i7

    Determining the stressvaiable


    The slress,a. due to pure bendingat the sectionA A on the pedalis given
    by equatron4.811

    ,MY

    (4.81)

    t".

    i-1 bendingmoment
    from x_x axisto extreme
    / = distance
    fibre
    /** = second
    momentofareaabouttheaxisx_x
    F = load
    I = couplelength
    d = depthof section.
    F'ortheellipticalcross-sction
    specified,
    thescond
    momentofarea,,, aboutx_x axis

    ls given byl

    I*. * o.o49o9di
    b

    (4.82)

    wher:
    , = breadthof thesection.
    Therfore,
    substituting
    equation4.82into equation4.81givesl
    .

    t l-

    t0.t8517F{

    (4.83)

    d.h

    Equation4.8J sratesrhat thereere four variablesinvolved.We hdve alreadv


    determined the load variable.F. earlier.The load is appliedat { mean distance,
    //r,;f
    I50mm repr$enlingthe couplelenglh.snd is no-itty dkn;but.a ubou,
    th.'*iatt
    of the foot pad.The standarddeviarionofthe couplete;gth, d.r,can be appr;;im;i;;
    by assumingthat 6a cove$ the pad, therefore:

    'r=? =8 333nln
    I - x(150,8.133)mrn
    The width of the ellipticalcross-section,
    ,, has a mean 11,: l2mm. The standard
    devidrioncan be delermjnedfrom equarion4.t8 an,t reierencel. the .t..;t;i;
    rorgng proceq(
    capabililymap for lo\r to mediumcarbonand tou ullo) steelsfor
    lhe weightrangegiven.shownin Figure4.51.
    Becauserhe width of the sectionis over a parting line, ihe only processdsk is
    a
    gometryto processrisk gp : 1.7which givesrhe adjustedtolerance
    as:

    Adjusredtolerance
    = Elq-iglgllce
    -,.so-

    (r)

    12
    = o.7o6mm
    i x lJ

    218 Designing
    reliableproducts

    fi.

    closeo or: roncuqcpnocEss

    MAPFORLOWTO MEDTUM
    lcaPAgtLtTY
    I cAFBoNalo Low aLloy sreELs l
    (w E rcl rtpro 1k!)

    g
    o
    a

    E
    i

    (aoaoJr/ or.oo"-or"no,rL"
    tlgure
    4.51ooces,
    -*,oL

    * t

    t he No
    includi
    Tflbl

    From fisure 4 51.rhc risk ,l und hcnce = 15 heLruierhcreirc


    9..
    no,,Lherrisk
    rirctors
    to lrtc rntotc{ounl.The strnJlfd Jevisrioncrn be itnpro\imuted
    tiom:
    d, +

    \r 2. i^
    12..:=-

    u6.ts2
    12-=r)ll1mm

    Thcreforc.
    ,

    N(12.0.Ilt)
    'rm
    The original objectivcof thc cxerciscwas lo frnd lhe optimum depth of
    the section
    srth rcgrrdl(, ir, f. ture.(\cnry.Vatuesrrngrngfrom d = t4 ro:5mm
    in sren.of
    lmnr $ill be uredrn rhec.rlculnrron
    ufrhc reliahilityff,.
    r"nirr,i
    Je\iafiun,lof ca,h d(prh .rrclgain (atcul ed fn,m rhc procss
    ".,rr..pnn,fing
    u.rlubitritm:,nrbr
    (lo.ed Jie fofging.rh! rorirtroteranee
    for erch r.riuerrien rio. it. e' t.i 1""
    grvmg4m: 1.7as rhcreare no otherprocessrisks10trke into account.
    ts-orexample
    .rl d : l4mm rhe rotal rolerrnccat ,4 : t.? is Z = 0.66nrm.Thcrefore.ttresrandira
    deviationis givenby:

    valicl.

    Calcu

    ./ 2r.,/i, o.ll
    1.7:
    0.o80mnr
    l:
    i-U
    t'- N(14'0 080)nm

    ,
    1/

    This can be repcdtdlbr rhe rcmainingvalucsofrhe secriondepthchosen.


    We can usea Monie Carlo simularionofrhc ranrtomvariablesin quation
    4.83to
    delerminerhelikely meanard standarddcviarionofrhe loadingsrrcss,assumin;tha;
    ltu' \\ ill beJ \ormrl (li.rnhu on roo.LrLcpri,,r rheto.rd,f, u nicr,r, mo.fafejr,,
    ,,
    l-pdramerer
    weibull Jrsrrihuon. rhe fenraining
    rrriabte.rrr chara.renrc.l
    bv ihe
    Nornral distribution.The 3-paranrerer
    Weibull disrribution
    t"
    t",i,,jJ
    "r,
    "".a

    In thc p

    closed I
    distribx

    Casestudies 219
    Trble 4,13 Loadins stEs Nomal distribulion
    paramebrslo. ! ranseots4tior dcprhlalues

    I4
    l5

    225.0
    112.2
    1 5 2 ,6
    l 1 6 I.
    122.1
    I t0 ,2
    100.0
    9 I.I
    ri l 4
    16,6
    70.5

    11
    t8
    20l

    2l
    22
    23
    24

    911.2
    ll57
    75.1
    51.3
    481
    41,6
    31.4
    308

    lliii':"
    Ili"tii
    t#['";'Tlil'il"1lj:l]i
    *!iiiT:;]ii
    lT:;l:
    "'l"l;''rT:rI'
    *n,,nf;ll;*iliffili';[t*ili r)ltl1!,"'.il]iill;tl;.1'ili
    ji{*::r'i::&
    T.::':il
    ilT
    :'#tril'*ir
    ffi''ri*""i"ii"ry,11"il#i

    *p{li*i*fr
    i'ill+t*'+,**rri"'rfiffi

    errlierin Seclion
    4.2..r.
    bur appro\imaLion
    ,ri"g fvf."" i*f" ,i."i",i"" ir'rr;ii
    "n
    Calculatingthe reliabitity

    'L".illrlli',lliiliilLi.,irs

    rodetermine
    thererrabir'|t)
    rora given
    number
    or

    o=f.t"y../1s)./s

    (4.Js)

    R, = rliabiliryar l,lh appljcationof load


    n : numberof independenrload applicationsin sequenc
    I(a) = loadinc stressCDF
    l(s):

    pDF.
    srrengrh

    Ir theproblem.hre.
    tte loadingsrressis a Normal dislriburionand the strenqrh
    is a 3parameterWeibult distriburion.Becausthe
    Normal ai",.tU",i..;, ib-ei,,.i;'"
    ciosedform, .he j-parametrWeibull disrribl

    dsribur
    ion
    whin
    ;: r ; il ;;;:;:;;:l',JJ
    i?:::;,f;::1fr.1;,lii:lil,l*:

    reliableproducts
    220 Designing
    io and d, can beestimatedgiventhc mean.rl, and sl.ndrrd deviation.o,1br a Normal
    distribution(assuniins, : 3.44)by:
    la x !

    et al. (t9(.
    ( 1997)we

    3.13944',73o

    //=p+0.353011144
    bccomcs:
    for cxample.theloadingstressat d : I 4 mm in termsof Wcibullparamerers
    xo1= y1

    :
    Sl lMPa
    225- 1.1394473(98.2)
    1.13944'73o1:

    The rel
    evidnt tt

    rcliabilitY
    target vrl

    = 225+ 0 3530184(98
    2) : 2597 MPa
    01 : p1+ 0.3530184o1
    i:\ =34q
    Allhough -!oLis ncgative.it willnol aflectthe detcrminationofthe reliabilitybccause
    we are only inlcrcstedin thc righl-handsideol lhe dislribution lbr slrcss strength
    inlerferenceanalysis,
    The linal rcliability formulalronfor the inlcrfrnceof two 3-prramelerWeibull
    distributbns subjctedto mulliple load applicationsis givenin cqu,rtion4.84i

    bc juslilie

    Determ
    from the

    I
    I
    / /!-\ , r \ " 1 ' l' . f f
    "
    \ / ' - l! r \
    R"=
    |
    lL-cxn{-l-'\
    '/
    .
    i.
    r.
    /
    il
    L \ , r-r, , . i' \ r.
    J._... 1
    \pr-. , . ,
    t\l

    \
    .*n, L r _.c,.
    ,*,/
    l_(,,
    /1.,'

    Thc limits of inlcgrutionare liom the expclcdminimum value ol yicld slrength,


    .o. Thc solutionofthis equalionnumeri.ros: 272.4MPa to 1000MP.r,rcpresenting
    Appendix
    Xll For thcascwhcn/ = 2{lmm
    in
    cnllyusingSimpsons Ruleis dcscribed
    =
    n
    1000.
    the
    reli.tbility.R,, is lbund 1obe;
    and the numbcrof load applicutions
    :0'q97856
    Rro00

    J.i,, in I
    dcviLrtro
    ol lhe pe

    Rearmn

    Findingan optimum design

    ctlcuhted for cachlalue of the scthn


    The boidcstline on Figurc 4.52showsR1o0o
    aboveis basedon lreudenthal
    dcscribed
    depth fron 14 io 25mm. The approth
    1

    0.9
    0.8
    o.7

    figure 4

    E::

    d ;;

    03
    0.2
    0 .1
    0
    14

    t5

    16

    17

    18

    19

    20

    21

    22

    23

    24

    25

    Sectiondprh,d(mn)
    different
    approaches
    d,caculated
    usnqthree
    of sction
    depth,
    nrcm,
    asafuncton
    figure4.52Relablty,

    Repat
    the opli
    From T
    greater
    50%.

    caie siudis 221


    et al (1966).Two further approachesro determineR, by Bury (1974)and Carter
    (1997)were also identifiedin Section4.4.3,the resultsf.om th"i" app.oach",
    are
    alsoshownon Figure4-{2.Note that the approschby Carterrequirestiatan equiva_
    lentmanand standarddeviationis calculatedfor thematerial's
    lelal strength,which
    are found to be ls = 342MPa and os = 26Mpa
    The resultsfrom the three differentmethodsare in partial agreementand it is
    evidentthat a suitabledesignexish with a sectiondepth,4 griater than 20mm,
    but probably less than 24mm to avoid overdesigningthe p;rt. Consulting
    th;
    reliability targer map in Figure 4.53, for an fVbA SeverityRating (S) =-0,
    a
    target value of R = 0.99993is requiredfor an acceptabledesign.fhi reliatitiiies
    cnllulated.for.1 - 22mm-showquile a largespread.reflectingrlie differences
    of rhe
    mernoos.However.tne finat selectionof a pedal ,eclion depth d = 22mm would
    bejustified.

    Debrministic approach
    when dcligningurng a determinisric
    approach.ir is a fair assumptionrhara lenerous
    ticror of saferyrFS) would be allocaredlo dercrmineth allowahleworki;g
    strcss
    from the minimummaterialstrength.For the variablesin theproblemsuchasiimen_
    sions, mean values would be chosen.except for the load, which would be the
    maximum lodd e\pectedrhroughoutthe servicelife. The minimum
    vi.fa
    .Lm in this casecan be approximaredfrom the mean valueminus *r..,r.na-"iJ
    "..n",n
    dc!iarions.us discussed
    in Section4.3.1.The working stressand the sectiondeoth
    ofrhe pedalcanbecalculakdfor a rangeoff{cror ofsafetyvalues,wheretheworkinc
    stressis substitutedfor Z in equation4.83.Therefore:
    ,S.;"=i,r.e_3og

    Snn=342-3(26)=264MPa
    Re:uranging
    equation
    4.83for thesection
    depth,4 weobtain:
    (4.84)

    Fil:JXliit

    for FS=3andanticipating
    tharthemaximum
    loadis ?65Nfrom
    10.18537x765 x 0 . 1 5
    = 0.03327m
    = 33.3mm
    264x 106\
    0 012

    '-)
    Repearrng
    thi. exercFe
    for a ranSe
    of FS!atuesgrvesFigure4.54.To ha!ederermrned
    rne op||mumsectron
    deprhol22mm. I S t.l wouldneedro hale beensprifreJ.

    ,Inrc-attacror
    or safery
    apptred
    mighrh",. h..",;;l

    fl"Tl"!1.1l
    i;;;
    gred(er:)
    ror lhr\ lypeot prohlemdnd sub.equenlly
    rhepdrr $outd ha\c beenoveroesrgneo.
    Increasrng
    the rotumednd lhercforethe marerialco,r by approximatel)
    500k.

    IeliableProducts
    222 Designing
    Ppm

    Loglolailure

    Rellability

    Acceptable
    design

    Conservatlvo
    de!l9n

    Figure4.5

    r
    4.8.3

    by shfu
    slightlyI

    iiom thr
    ll is r(

    t) :o 1

    rcngrnc
    steelSA

    Gover

    The ior
    ihe holc
    hub . nd

    123456910
    FMEA Severity Ratlng (S)
    Fiqur e4. 53 opiob. , r o t F

    ;::;;;, ;;;

    ""
    eral (1966))

    i"

    op lon - o

    lordlopo

    '" . U '

    ".

    p P

    0 o Ltcd-

    o 'r '" "

    Casestudis 223
    40
    39
    38
    36
    35
    34
    E32
    ;31
    r30
    "* 29
    n2a
    'i 26
    ,9 25
    -' 24
    23
    22
    20
    19
    .18
    Facrorot e.tty(FS)
    Figufea.54Section
    depth,
    d, based
    onfacror
    of safety

    4.8.3Torque
    transmifted
    bya shrinkfit
    An ellective
    wayofassembling
    a machinc
    elemenr
    suc[asa gearor pulleyto a shaflis
    dlringThisinvotves
    selring
    up
    a
    rrdiat
    presurib"r*e"nu,f,ofr_iit n
    ly:hdnk
    \trgn
    rhanthcin<ide
    ) trrgerLrlamcter
    dlimeter
    of thcmachine
    elemcnl,
    Icrmed
    un
    interference
    fil. Thepartis heatcdto auowassembly rh"" ;;;;i;;
    th.;;;;;
    on theinsidedirmereris csrablished
    "",Jits abilitya
    whichmaintrtins
    from theshaft.
    ""'"rriii"iq""
    f".i
    ro^rquc
    wirhoutslipp.rsc
    rh
    crn berransm,rted
    b] ,i hub
    .,]l
    :!lll:9 ii byan'.hr
    rnari:
    rr a<cmhtcd
    Inlcrjerence
    fir lo a nuwercd
    shiri.Thehuboursid
    d;amercr
    =
    d = O50mm.a. ,hownIn Figure4.55.The
    !
    9'".-^. Jnd theshrtidiameter
    lengthof the hub is l00mm. Both hub and shaftare machined
    r,i_ r,.il.rr"i
    rreelSAt l0l5 niLha )ield.rrengrh
    SJ,r Vr.142.26lVpa
    luUl.+.t,. ii,."
    r*
    rnarrnenuhrs.loppedsuddcnly
    In ,Ervi(e
    dLrero a malfunctron,
    andcL,n,rd..rinp
    onryrnclor'rondl
    .tresse'.
    wharis theprobabrtrr]
    rh r rhe\ban\ ill \ietd.l

    Governing equations
    The torquethar can be rransmilredovrthc leng6 oflhe hub withoul
    slipping,called
    the holding rorque.is a functjon of the frictiorl nna tfr" *airf pr"**c-fietrv'"..
    if,"
    hub and shafr.the contacrsurfacearenand rheraaiusof.tfre
    sfraftitsetf fne froia;ng
    lorqlLe,n/H, is givenby:

    un =.1'P' " : a 3 ' h

    (4.85)

    224 Designing
    reliable

    Determ
    bore H7
    +0.053rn

    Interferenceflt

    Thehubir
    Figure
    4.55Arrangement
    ol thehubandshait

    MH = holding torque (hub)


    / = coefficicntof friction betwccnhub and shafr
    rr = radial pressure
    ds = shaft diametr

    Withrefe
    sionof Z

    /H : lcngthof hub.

    Theshift

    The radial pressure,p! sel up on assemblyis given by equation4.86(Tjmoshcnko.


    1966)':
    (4.86)

    Therefore

    , : Modulus of Elasticity

    Similffly I
    and the sh

    4r = hub outsiddiameter
    1 : inlerferncebetweenthe shafrand hub.
    Suhsliruling
    equarion
    4.kt'rnlocqurlron4.85giveq:

    MH o 7 8 s4t.
    r . r .,,+( r

    ( *) ' )

    (4.1r7)

    ' The rudialpresureis nor.on{rnr over Lhelengdrof thc hub. but in fact patsat thc prolecliruportjons
    of thc shalt whichrsist conprcssionrcsullingin dn incrcasd prcsure rr lhe endsofthc hub, or slress
    conenralron. I-.r thrsre!$n. frennrsfatigucfailurcna! be a.ticipatcdNhenibe apptiedtorqncis

    Casestudies 225

    Determining the variab les

    Fof an arlequatcinaerlcrence
    fir selcctedon th basisof the hole. the tolerancesarc
    taken fron BS 45004 (1970)as H7-s6.This transtatesro ,.f".,,".".,
    ,i,.-f,rt,
    bore H7 : +0.030. +0.000mm and for the shafi diameter,
    "
    s6: +0.072.
    ,o.05lnrm Ci\(n rhc norJtri,nfnr huh boredi m(r(.ri, //H,JnJ
    conrertrnur(,
    Ine:ln\rhrc, .rndhrl rerrtloter|rnce,.
    rhe,edrmen,i,,n,
    h..(omc;
    ./H= 250.0t5 + 0.01S
    lnm
    dsrU50.063+0.010mm
    and liom Figure4.55.
    D| = @,t0+o.O'mm
    /H = 100+0.05mm
    Thc hub insidediltmetcr.outsiddirnlererand lcngtharemachined
    usinga latheand
    r, \te emplo).thrurninghoflng jn f r\ shn\ n prc\roust)rn
    frguie a.42.Thc
    nrrlefirr \pecrtrcdl,,r lhe hub i, mild.reel gi\ing J m.rlerul
    lo procc\) nsk
    ,nr = 1..r.llc fcornLtryro pru(essn,k (n = Ltj2duc ,o
    f f"ng,f,',,a;",n.i.:r.
    ":.
    rtur,. An rdju\rc\itolcrJnc('li,r
    thc hUhh(,re..4,.r\ rhcngivcn
    hy.
    n dJustedtoleftince=

    Designtolerance(r)

    =i#L=00,,

    With rclerenccto thc proccsscap.rbility map for turning/boring.,4 =


    l.? for a dimcn_
    sion of U50rnm. This valuc delaultst,, th.
    mmulacturina variabilitv
    "n-pon"nr
    rjsk. qD. when lhre is no considcrurionof surt.ace
    tjnish capabitityi" ;
    Thc shiftcd srandarddcvialrtlIr,d,. tbr lhc dimcnsionatrot,irancc
    on rh; ^;"i;;;.,'.
    il;;;;
    can thenbc predicredtioln equa on 4.28:

    ,.a :, o .ul5. t t'

    Thereforc:
    .41- N(50.015,0.004)
    mm
    Sirnilarlylbr an analysison the hub outsidcdiametraDdlengtb,
    which are rurned,
    rnd the shaftdi.imeter,which is nnishdusingcyl;ndricatgririiing.
    we gct:
    ,rr _ r(70,0.005)mn
    lH - N(100.0.006)tnm
    ds

    N(50.063.0.0012)
    mm

    \1e r1.'r'te .r f lr < oleh, c . , nt r v . e* , , . t . . , , . no, , r ! t L u e d , r i r e t ^ m r t , , r o D r o d e k r , n c r l c


    .,d,d irJ.\u,J no. , \ e, o. - J , ! e
    H. ic Le _ o ! , r R r . 1 , _ * n . r . r . . i i " J i "
    i i )a"i,,1,."
    I
    ln (ron Jl JJhc\on bc t wc en
    r hr \ hJ f t . r r , lbub bo. el B o l z
    rhisopd" birirvrequtcmenr
    " . n net bvthe
    .-,i-."e

    r-,*,., ill..iJ;;

    ;,i;i";iil?[i.|'8r)

    226 Designing
    reliableproducls
    Thc mcan ol-thc intcrl-crcncc
    bclwccnthc shalt and hub bore is giver by:
    h:

    tt^

    mm
    Pdtt: 50 063 50 015: 0 0413

    Thc sl.indarddcvi,ilion ol thc intcrlcrenccis givcn by:


    .

    1...

    " '^)

    (0.0012' 0 004-)

    (r.(i04)mnr

    l'/")

    mm
    1- N(0.048,0.0042)
    Thc maxnnumcocnicicntof variation for thc Modulus ol Elnstioity.,. for crrbon
    slcelwas givenin Table 4.5 as Cv : 0 03. Typically, t = 208CPa and thereforewe
    can infer rha! t is represented
    by a Normal distributionwilh par.rnrclcrs:
    r - N(208.6.24)GPa
    V,rlucstypicallyrangclionr 0.077to 0.33li)r thc s1a1ic
    coellicientoffriclion fof sleel
    on slccl undcr an inlcrltrcncc lit wilh no lubrication(Kutz, 1986).The inlerference
    und coellicicnlol lriclion rrc corrclatcdin practiccbut for the examplehere.we
    Also. assumingthat 6 stxndarddeviationscovcr
    assumest.tislical independence.
    the rangcgivcn.wc c n dcrivcthal:
    / _ N(0.2,0.04)

    Figure
    4.55

    The shca
    $trenglh

    Determiningthe probabilityof interference


    The meanv,rluelbr the holdinglorquc capaci!y.trM,,,is found by insertinglhe mean
    valuesol all thc voriablesinto equation4.87.To lind the standurddeviationof the
    holdingtorque.d,r,,. wc cun apply thc Finitc DillbrenceMethod. !inolly, we arrive

    Applying
    givcs:

    MH - N(3.84.0.85)
    kNm

    UsingMo
    lbund1ot

    At this stugeir is worrh highlightingthe relativecontribuiionofeach variablc1o thc


    holding iorqu v.ri.mce.The resultsliom ihe Finite DifferenceMethod rre usedto
    consrructFigure4.56which showsrhe sensitivityanalysisof all the variablcs!o thc
    varirnce of the holding torque.11is clear thar ac(uratand representative
    data for
    th coefrcientoffriction. l; for a particularsituationand the control ofthe interferencelitdinnsionsarecrucialin lhc dclcnninalionofth holdingtorquedistribulion.
    Thc lorquc thit can bc lransmiltedby thc shali withour yielding.,'Us,is givenby:
    M. : :)--:

    From Tab

    the hub fr(


    hub slips.

    I : shearYieldstrength
    ./ : polar secondmomenrol-arca

    Rathcr
    thc yicld s
    in thcsha

    / : radiusol shaft.
    In termsof the shaft diameter,this simplifiesro:
    vs:{r

    ly6l4e5rr.rtr

    Bodrol-lh

    (1.88)

    yield usin

    Casestudier 227

    lY.)

    D..tg. v.rtabt.
    Flgure4.56Senstvtty
    anayss
    foftheholdrng
    iorque
    valaDres
    Tbe shefiryierd strenglhfor ductiremetnrsis
    a linear function of the uniaxiaryierd
    strength.Thercfbrc,for purc lorsioh from equation
    4.56:
    7Y= 0 5775''
    Applying this conversionto the Nornnl distribudonparamcters
    for SAE 1035sleel
    glvcs:
    ry _ N(t97.3,r5.2)MPa
    UsingMonLeCurlo,inlulirfi,,n
    anpliedro cqu.rlron
    4.8t.thc .,h ft r(yquccrtacir) r\

    .B!th

    Ms _ X(4.86.0.38)
    tNm
    of the torquc capaciliescalculated.the holding
    torqueol.the

    hub and thc shaft

    byrheNormal
    di",;tl*t;rr.,rr"*r_. *"
    llfl1"-i
    .litd.tl.".,"l..sented
    coupxngequatron
    ro derermjncrhe probability
    ofinterferencc.wherc:
    4.86- 3.84
    ::_l
    lo
    /0..18:+ o.ll5r

    "1"","

    ti"

    il'$l;[fp*$#i[t*i'*fi*f
    *ififfi
    m
    as
    awh're
    asmarr
    incrcase
    in

    ll#"ii"',r':ffiiljTflff:fr1T#i:j:i'=isn

    ji:!ffiiiif
    ir.:i'"Tir:L'kji',ft
    *s{tt";l:#il1i#iift':

    228 De5igning
    rliableprodocts
    Shsit ma| att SAE 1035steol

    snaftmar6ial:
    sAE10183te61

    Flgure
    4.sg

    . Cost ol'
    link
    . Costdu
    . Cbst ol i
    IntortolEr

    Figurc4.58

    Figure
    4.57D!1rbutions
    andreative
    inrederence
    ofthehodingtorque
    andshalr
    torque
    toriro
    capactes
    a reliabihy n = 0.999896.
    Although nor safctycrirical,rhedcgreeofprorecrion1iom
    the shaft yieldingis now dequate after rcl-erence
    to the rcliability targel map. The
    rlativshapeoi thc torque distributionsand degreeof intrfrenceirc shown in
    Figure4.57for thc two situatioDswhercdiffrnrshafi slcels re used.

    Thc rpprot
    srrengthrs
    link fails p,
    Ratings (.s
    FMEA Se

    4.8.4Weaklink design

    critical t0 t
    modebeing
    crprbility.l
    leveloffaiiu

    The major assumptionin wcak link designis that rhc cost offailure of rhe machine
    that is to be prolcctedfrom an overloadsitu.ttionin serviceis nuch greaterrhan
    the cost offailure of a weaklink placedin thc systemwhich is dcsigDed
    to fail firsr.
    The situalionis p marily driven by variouscostswhich musr be bal.ncedto avoid
    at one exlremethc cost of lailure of the system,and the other overdesignof the
    elementsin the syslcn. The cost factorsinvolvedrre lypically:
    . Cost ofintroducing the weak link
    . Cost of replacement
    ofthe wenk link

    'Ihe varia

    the weaklinl
    than thal bc

    Casestudies 229

    ,n'-"liXlNnn,n
    o,

    .n*l?*
    "
    r(s)

    strngthdl

    t\L)

    Slr3s/st16ngih

    Figure4.58Thewethnlconcepr
    . Cost of failurewith the weaklink relativeto the cost offailure
    without the weak
    Iink
    . Cost due ro machinedowntirneif the weaklink fails prematurely
    . Cost ofincreasingstrengthofmachine elemenrsro accommodate
    the weaklink.
    F'igure4.58showsthe conceptofweak link design.The loadingstress
    distributionis

    Jerermined
    fromrhenormaloperaring
    condirionis
    l"*a t" ,r,.iy.i..

    ls useolo dekrm,nc the dimensionsof rhewcrk link. The fallure


    "J'iiiir'rir.r,
    mode
    for th weak
    lin k is srressrupturernd so rheulrimatcrensileor utr,rnare,t ea, ,trencth
    ls ,D;cln.l.
    The appropriarele\el of inrerfcrenceberweenlhe toadlng srresi
    ;;
    u'Ja'k-lrnk
    .trengthis dckrminedfrom the consequences
    of machinedowntimerf rhe ueak
    ln(. tart\ premdturcty.
    The useof lhe Largerreliabititymap \^irh FMEA Severilv
    Kaung< tJl tor production processesis useful ln thls respect
    lsee the proce_
    FMEA SevedryRrtingr providedb) Chr'.ter Corporarioncr
    at., fSqSi ior
    e\ampte.rn Seclton2,6.4.thccharactensti(
    dimen\ionon lhe coversuppo leawas
    cnri(at ro rhe succerrof rhe auromared
    ascembty
    ,r,. potli,iri iiirrr."
    n-*".
    modc
    a maJordisruptionro theproducLion
    lineon failurero meerlhe reoui;;;
    _being
    (npabrtrly.theretbre.S=8\ra.allocared.
    lflheweaklinkwardesiCnedto\e;\ low
    le\elollailurenrobrbilrty,
    meaning
    rhe\epararion
    l.roe.n rfr. r*o-ai.r;irr;oni *a,
    greater.
    rhemnchrne
    (ould be overdesisned.
    etemenr(
    Jhe.variabi|ry
    oI rhe weaktink rrrenglhsboutJbe we kno\rn becau\ert is d
    cnlrcalcomponent
    In lhe slstemandcxpefimental
    restingLoderermine
    the ultimale
    rcnsrerlrenglh.lr. rsrecommended
    wheredalais lacking.The inrerlerence
    belween
    lheweal link \rrengthandmachine
    srrengrh
    i. usua y at;a)s ,ma er comFd;;riv;l;
    rnan rhrl belueenlhe toading\lressand weaI link slrength.
    This is due to rtr"
    i-actthat we musrsethe failureofthe weaklink b"fo." tf,..i*f,in"in
    uff,itu"ti"n..

    230 Designing
    reliableproducts
    Coupllng

    Shsar pln

    Figure4.59Wak
    Inkafiangement
    Howcver.too greata scparation,and overdesign
    may occor.Thc overloadconditj(rl
    rs rcpresntedby a uoiquc stress.which is vcry much grearcr thltn lhc working
    stress.rpplied suddenlywhich c{uscs onty thc we k liDk to failuro drlc to stresi
    In thc lbllowingc sesrudywcwillexnmine
    thecorrcepts
    ot werklink design.
    figurc
    4.59showslhe {rrangemenl
    o{ l couplingwirh lL shearpin,lctingas a wcak-link
    betwccnir lrAnsnrissiou
    syslcm0nd n pump.lhc.ssomptionbeingth t lhc costot.
    fuilurcol the punrpis much grcalerlh n the cosrof failureof ihc weaklink. In
    the evcntthdt thc punrpsuddcnlystopsdue to a blockagc,thc shc r pin Dlust
    pfotectthc systcmliom drm.rgc The ppliedt(xque rhrouShlhc rrunsmission
    shaflundcrnormitlrunning
    condilions
    is M = 3.2kNnrwi!ha caefficieDt
    ofvirri tioo
    (" =0.1, rnd lhc diaDreter
    v.rri bles ot lhc transmissionnd pulnp sh,rftsrre
    D-N(60.0.004)mnr.The fMEA SeveriryRrting (S) =5, relaliDglo.r minor
    disruptionil lhe wcnk link fxils prcmoturclyctusing the pump to expcrience
    down_
    time. Slccl is to be uscd s lhe Dr rcr.irlfor rll the ff chineclcDrents.

    Experimental
    determinationol ultimate tensilestength of the
    weak link material
    Becausc
    lhedesignofthe shcnrpin is crilicrl,ihe ut!imrlebnsileslrcngrh
    oflhc steel
    selectcdlbr the wc k link nabrial wasin rhiscascDleasrrcdstatisticaliyby pcrtbrnr,
    ing .i simpleexpcrinenralhardnesstesr.The gradeof sreclsetecred
    is 226M07cold
    dra'"vnliee curling steel.Thc sizetestcdis U t6nDr, estimaredas the approximrte
    dianrclcrofthe pin. lrnd 30 snmplesarc sclectedlioln rhe srocklnalcrial.Thc Brinnel
    Hardness(Hts) valuc oferch s. rple is rnclsured.thc resullsof which nfe showDin
    Trble 4.14. Rarher rhan developa histogramfor rhc drra. wc can dcrcrminerhc
    Nornal dislributionpblting posilionsusingthe mern rank equationfor rhe indivi
    dual values.The resulrs,rreplotted iD Figurc .{.60,the cquationoI rhe slraighrljnc
    .rndrhe corrclationcocllicient./. dcren ned.
    The mean.tnd srand.rrddeviationofrhe h.trdnssfor rhe sreclcan be determincd
    liom the regrcssionconllanrs,40and ll as:
    /,40\

    \ qt)
    /t

    4n\

    -l4.ri0r\

    \ n.i r o J
    / ln\

    '"" I rr- J't;rJ

    *no'

    r l4.d0t\
    I ojrr., /-l.,,zrin./ o.t,

    2
    1. 5

    0. 5

    05

    r5
    2

    /t,r4.80t\

    Figur4.60Lr

    Casestudies 231

    '":\"'#

    :":ll;i i,l'"*-

    HB

    (rr': l0)
    t4 t.l J

    I
    2

    1 4 5 .4

    dd'dJndpro"nsr'n.o1' rr,

    t
    - *'
    0.0121

    r.ri49
    t.5t8
    r.300

    0 0968
    0.l ]90

    I BI

    l 4 s9
    t4 7 .8
    t4 t.8

    Iiri(rr

    I(l
    l2

    150:l
    t5 0 .1
    1 5 0 .1
    t5 0 I
    t50.:l
    r5 03
    t5 0 .1
    1 5 0 .1
    l5l l
    t5 2 .8
    l 5 2 .l t
    1 5 2l 1
    t5 2 .8

    igurc
    lrnk
    k. ln

    rtior

    1 5 5 .4
    t5 6 ,5
    1 5 70
    t5 l r.l

    0.t935
    0.225r1
    0 258t
    0.2901
    0.1226

    0.75:l
    -0 552
    -0.312
    -021!?
    0.244
    -0.t21
    -0.041
    0.041
    0,121
    0.204
    0.2ta7
    o 172

    0.3871
    0.4192
    0.45t6

    I5
    t7
    li

    2|
    2l
    22
    21
    24
    25
    26
    21
    :8

    06t29
    0.6452

    0,552
    n7142

    0.751

    0.81117
    0 87t0
    0.9012

    L l 3l
    | 300
    1.5l r

    l0

    2
    1 .5
    IJ
    I

    i\i'

    r = 0.94G
    05

    En
    6-

    _ _ _ _ l ]- _

    151 152153 154 155 156157 1531

    2
    25

    Bnnlt
    hardn6ss
    (HB)
    tigure 4.50 Llnear
    regression
    fortheNo.mal
    distrtbLt
    on transforrned
    hardnss
    daia

    232 Designing
    reliableproduds
    From equtrtions4.12 and 4.13, the mean and standarddeviationfor th ultimalc
    tensilstrength,Sr, for stlcan bc derived:
    /,(, : l45tHB : 3.45x I50.07: 517.7MPa
    '",

    = (3.45':.
    oiB + 0.ls2r.piu + 0.152,.oits)o5

    = (3.45'?
    x 4.31:+ 0.152,x 150.0?r
    x 4.31?)r5
    + 0.1522
    ds' = 27 2MPa

    FoI FMEA
    R : 0.999w
    10 o foilure 1
    Table I in I
    couplrngcq

    couplrngeqr

    .tr - x(517.7,27.2)
    MPa
    Typicauyfor duclilc slccls.the ultimateshcrr strcngth. is 0.75of
    ^t!1(Crccn. t99:.,.
    'u

    0.1..rndtha

    Mpa
    n, - N(313u.3,20.4)

    zerogives:

    Determiningthe diameterof the shearpin


    Assumingthat an adcqualc transilion 6t is specifiedfor both the pin hole and
    couplingbore,the pin is in doublepure shcarwith the borc of the coupling,and so
    thc shc4rstress.,, is givcn byi

    F = lLngentialforcc
    ,1 = rrca ol-pin.
    The tangentiallirce actingon the pin it a r:rdius,/. duc 10the appticdtorque.M. is
    grvenby:
    .M
    Threfore,combiningthe aboveequ.ttionsand substitutingrhe radius for rh diametervariablcgives:

    . t.27324M
    '
    D. , ! z
    Rearranging
    cquation4.89in terntsofrhe pin diamcter,
    1, gives:
    |.27124M

    M = lpplied torque
    -D: shaft diamctcr
    Z = loading stress.

    whichyield

    Thc pin is m
    dislributio
    +0.002mm
    Solvins

    .rv(281,28
    given slres
    that specili

    Seleding

    (4.8e)

    Thc torque(
    shearpin in

    (4.e0)

    link materia

    Sdving equ

    The coem

    Casestudies 233
    For FMEA (S) = 5. rhc retiabiiity of the wak tink in
    serviccis rcquircd to be
    R rr.aq'l
    wrrhrelcrence
    to lher(liahitrl'larlel mapgr!enin Frgrrre
    4. 16..1hr,
    reldler
    ro a lJrrurepfohJhjlrt)P o 001or $hen $orlrng qrrh theSND,
    I 0q trom
    rable I in Appendjx L For a siven v. ue of rhc itandard
    N."*i
    *.i"i.-,.
    ii.
    couplrngequalionfor the interfcrenceof two Normat Aistriburions
    can Ueusei ro
    dctcrmincth loading stress.and henccthe diamcrerof thc
    shearpin. from thc
    couplingequalionwe get:

    (4.er
    )
    1,.

    \Ir kn,N thrt rhe^ci<ftriLnt


    ( \. ot lhc rtnled lurqucis Jnpro\rmar(t\
    ol \.rn.rtr,,n.
    ,4r. irnc Inrl Inc hnJt to.rJrng,tre\r
    !JflrhlL will hJ\e.r.imilar tcvel,,t r.rnrrron
    bec,ru\e
    lhLdimLn.ron.rl
    \ rrubleshJ\ea \ er) smJ \ Jn.rn(ecnnlrihurron
    In comoaF
    r$n. we i so knnu thc r'tlinrirte
    \hcrr nrcnglhnrr rnller\ofrhc $e.rkhnt mrlcri:rl.
    rnercrore
    sub\lrlutrng
    rn equrlion4.ql .rndrearrrnginS
    lo,el rheriehl.hflndsidcln

    3.09 20.42+(0.1p1)2+!l- l8lr.t= 0


    which yields/,/ r 2lJIMpa whensolvedby itcratron.
    Frcm equation4.90.the mcanpin diamcter.p,7.is lbund to bcl

    T|(pinr.machrnedrndc)lindCull)gruundroci7c.
    Ilcxnhc,hownth rrheNormrl
    or\lrrbulr"nI\srrmercr\
    oj-rhedrJmeter,/ A, l5.5450.00U5lmm
    ti,r c l,rlern(e.,f
    !r).002nlm cho'L.n
    lr,,mthe rclevilnlpr.ccsscrpnbilrymrp.
    sol\rng(qulri(,n4.xqusingMonr( C.rrtonmuhli,,n f,ri rhc
    ran.rbtes
    .
    rnrolred_
    lhe \hcar \lrcss in rhc prn i. Iound to hi\(:r Normal
    di.rnhuLionuf 1\1-2r1.28.:r,
    VPi Catcutarrng
    rhe r(t;:,hrt) u,ing lhe couptingequ,,r,ontor'rt.

    :;:;iJ;';r,;1,:1i:*'h

    prrume'(r.
    whi(hi. Jrmo.'
    s'\c\R 0qq8q50
    e\li,r)

    Selectingthe pump shaft material

    Tlrerorquec,rtacit]('t th( tumn sh.rftInu,thcgrcaterthanrhe


    tontuecaprrrl) ol lhe
    We,rr.umerhlr fiitureof lhe pumpshrti o.cirn ar'rhernrerro_
    'h(ar pin in dJl(Jse..
    en(cof rh(\erwororquedi,lflbutiun,.Irorn(qudrron4.Uq.th(lorqueciD!,ilrofLhe
    ,hcurnin rrn he dercrm,ncd
    by \ubsr,rurins
    rheutrrm,,".h*,:,;;;;:,f
    ,i,:.;",k
    link malcrial.r,," for l,. givingi
    Mwr : 0.785198D.r.1r.
    r"*,

    (1.e2)

    Solvingequalion4.92DsingMonte Crrlo sjmularionfor thc


    variables involved, lhe
    brque capacity of the shear pin is found ro havc a Norrnal
    distribution of
    n/wr - N(1421.7,234.1)
    Nm.
    Thec.elllci(nlol \rnJlronot lheyretd,r,eng,h.:rndhen(crhe,hear
    \ietd.rrenuh
    " (Ieer(.15r)prcdll)( = 0.0u.Thr\ mean\rharlhe coemcienr
    ror
    ,,r uaiiari"nofit"

    234 Designing
    reliableproducts
    lorqucapacityofrhe pumpshaftwill approximarelybe the same,becaus
    rhedinen_
    sronatv.triablcof thc shai diameleris very smnll in comparison
    to th. ,h;"; ;i;,"
    strength.We also nced ro specutateah,ur lh( trket) faiturc proUabititl
    ae.eriabre
    hcr$eenrhe$cJk tinkandfL,mnchal ro.que,.rpac,iie,.
    e-umi"g ii,ri-ir,"
    srtuatjonis only likety to occuroncein 1000operarjngcycles,th"'.oupting "*rr"r"
    equorion
    can be wrirtenas:

    3.09: ]:1t
    | "i"

    ]1!!L
    + r"",

    (4.e3)

    4.91to se1rheright-handsideto zeroand substjrutingin the


    , ,Rarr.rngingequarion
    (nown
    paramcters$vesi

    1.09 (o.otpy")r+234.l,
    + 4421.7
    - r 4:0
    which yicldst/rr : 6092.5Nl1l by ilerarion.
    Therelbre.rhc Normal disrributim parametcrsfor the pump shaft
    rorquecapacily
    Mp

    N(6092.5.487.4)
    Nrn
    Th!.lorqucthflrcrn-hcrrunrmrrted
    hy r shrfl nilhouLyleldrng
    u&, gncn in c,.turtion
    c.n^. KeitrrJngrng
    lor the rhcrr yiclLlstrcngthrnd the !rrjah,lrsrn rhrsei.rmplc
    Srvcsl

    5.09296't,
    _r__
    .,=_

    Figur4.61

    t4.94)

    Solvingequntion4.94usingMonte Carlo simulationfor the variablcs


    involved.the
    sherr )ield slrenglhrequiredf,,r lhe punrt shjft marcrirl rs
    found t., hr,rc.r
    r!orm3tdtslflhuttonwrth nirr.rmelcr\.
    r,' _ N( 143.7,
    I 1.6)MPa
    Tier(t;re--thL
    \ormrtdr.rribulx,np.rrrrnelers
    for rhem ren.rl.,ten.rleyr(ld,rrength
    rre t/u.)// ltme\grenter.
    giving:
    s], _ N(24e,20.l)MPa
    A suitablematerialwould be hot rollcd mild steet070M20,which
    has a mininum
    yreldslrengdr.
    Si'rrr :2t5Mpa (BS 970,l99t) By considering
    rh"t ,h";i;irn;;
    yjeldstrengrhis 3 slandarddeviitionsfrom rhcmeanand that
    thetypicrl cocmcienr
    of variation_C,:0.08 for the yicld slrengrh of srcel, the N--^r
    Air"ltr,i""
    parumetcrsfor 070M20can be approximateoDy:
    s_r_ N(282.9,22.6)MPa
    From equrtion 4.94 and using Monte Carlo sirnuhlion again,
    the actual torque
    capacityol-th pump shlft usingrhe 0?0M20steelgradcis found ro
    be:

    design.Th

    4.8.5De

    glvensrlua
    Figure 4
    self-driven

    hangerrs r

    MP _ N(6922.9,560.1)
    Nm
    finallj. lhe inrcfleren(ebel$eenlhe rtflied rorqu( rnd lhe
    tumn \hatt rorou(
    crprcrr)(an heanJt\\cJ to derermrne
    if\(prralronherueen
    rhemrsroogrear ieading

    lable misa

    Casertudies 235

    4421,7

    6922.9

    roqL,e(Nm)

    Figure4.6lWeakinkrorquecapacty
    shown
    relatve
    rothapplied
    lorqueand
    lhetorque
    capac
    tyoi the
    p!mpsnan

    to ovcrdcsign.The Saltly M,rrgin (SM) wrs givenin cquation4.46(Carrer,l9it6):

    SM

    ,
    6922.9
    =:=5.
    1 7 1200
    V560.lr+ l20r
    o1,, + },

    As a guidc.SM shouldbe lcssthan l0 for all cascsoffoilure scverityIo avoid overJL..iSn.


    I hedislrlbutions
    of thedtplid rorque.$c k link lorqueljrprc y andpump
    orquc capacityarc plottd10 scalein Figure4.61for comparison.

    4.8,5Design
    of a structural
    member
    The usc of probabilislicconcprsin structuralsieelworkdesigncould porentially
    reducemalcrial costsby dclivcringoprimizeddcsignswirh srandardseclionsizes.
    such seclionsbcing rypically uscd in large volumes and repetiriveapplications.
    Hcre we will dernonstrarethis poinr by slecringthc oprimum sectionsize tbr a
    givensitualionwherea standardstrucruralmembermust be uiilized.
    Figure 4.62showsthe arrangcnentof one of i pair of hangers.which suspenda
    self-drivenbelt conveyorunit lm in length above a factory lioor. The conveyor
    unit is part ol-50 rhar compriscrhe matrialshandling systemin the facrory.Th
    hangeris essentiallya cantileverbcam madefrom an unequatangtesectionand is
    securelyattachedto a column. lt is nominally l250mm in lengrhfrom the column
    lace 1o the hole for the vcrlical tie rod, and has a fabricarionroleranceof +5mm_
    At its liee end.the hangercarriesa load. F. which hangsverrically.bui hasan acceptablemisalignmenttoleranceof+1.5", basedon installarionxprience.

    236 Designing
    reliableproducts

    !:-J?5!r5!lL>l

    H6nger

    tigure4.62 l.langer
    arrangement

    The load carried comprisesapproximatelybalf $e mass of the conveyorunil


    (50 + 9kg). and half thc massof thc items being conveyedat any one time. The
    massof thc itemsbeing conveyedon half of enchconveyorunit ffuctuatesfrom 0
    to 72k9, approximatelyfollowing a Normal distribution.The materialspecinedlbr
    rhe hangeris hoi rolled Grade 43C structuralsteel,which has a minimum vield
    = 275M Pa for a thrcknes I S 16mm (BS 4:160.t990).
    Jrrength.S,,min
    From 3n FMEA of rhc rlsrem de$gn.! SeveriDRating (SJ = 7 was ullocffrcd.
    rlatingto a salbtycriticalfnilurein servic.lt is requiredto find the oplirnumunequal
    anglesectionsize from the slandardsizesavailable.It is assumedthat the load is
    carried:rt the section'scentreofgravity, G. and only stresses
    duc to bendingof the
    sectionar coosidcred,that is, the torsionnl effctsare minimal. The combind
    weightof the beamand tie rod arc not to be laKelrlnLoaccount,
    The gcneraldimensionalpropcrtiesofthe unequalanglesectionusedfor thehanser
    are\hownin FiguR4.61.Nolelhar.7< 6 andr d and Lhalthelcgradirrrr:,quire
    lor mathcmaticalsimplificationol the problem.-

    Determining the stressva ables


    In lermsof the dimensions,d, , and I for rh section,severalareaDror,erties
    can be
    found.rboulthc r \ dnd./ r a\e,. ,uch r\ rhe sccondmomenrof irer. /",. cnd
    the product moment of area, 1*y. Howevr, becausethe sectionhas no axes of
    symmetry,unsymmtdcalbendingtheorymust be appliedand it is requiredto find
    the principal axes,,
    and u r', about which rhc secondmomnrsoj ara are a
    '/ respectively(Urry
    maximum and minimum
    and Turner, 1986).The principal axes
    areagainperpendiculur
    and na* lhroughlhe cenrreof gravrry.bur are a dl.ptaced
    dngle. from \ v rs sbo$n rn Frgure4.h1.The objecrilers ro frndrhe ol;ne in
    $hich ^rhc princrpal
    d\(. lie and cdlculaLe
    the \e(ondmoment\.f afeaaboutlhese
    axes.The lbllowing fornulae will be usdin rhe devetopmenr
    of the Droblem.

    Figure4.5

    The po

    The seco

    The prod

    The prin

    Casestudies 237

    Figure4,53Gefecldmensions
    loranLrnequa
    angl
    section
    Thc positionol the cenlreol gravity,C. is locatedby:
    u'1+lh-t)l

    (4.95)

    2 l a +( .b_l)
    b1+ (a t)t
    2(a+lb-t))

    (4.e6)

    The secondmomenlsof areaabout .r r and l, _rrespcsnvely


    arc:

    1 * = + l r ( b - r ) r + lt)( r" - r 0

    D.l

    (4.e7)

    1yy= +fr(a r)r+b/r

    r),1

    (4.e8)

    (1, 4(j

    The productmomentofarca is:


    ,

    ,,

    l'.

    2l

    lr

    2l

    ,1It1 1f,
    ) lx

    t,

    t.

    )l

    to

    '

    /\

    : ./

    ' 6

    r)t1
    l

    (4.ee)
    The principal secondmomentsof area abour the principal a)tes,, I
    respeclively
    are givenby:

    /" " : j (1 --+/,y)+j

    (/,,

    /" " :j (1 --+/yy) l

    (1-"- 1,y)r+4/i

    1:,))'+4/:y

    (4.100)
    (4 . 0
    r 1)

    238 Designing
    reliableproducts
    wherethc principalptanis al an angle:
    Lln rl

    '"'

    (1.r02)

    The tbove cquatir)nscana b writtenin termsofthe nominaldimcnsions,


    d,, and l.
    for rhr,ecrjr,nS.tLlion,tof rhc Ineandndsr.rndard
    devr.rlion
    ofeiuh pronerry.
    for
    .rn)sc(tion(.rnhcriundunnsMonreCarto\imut,ri""l'ltrtln""r"lg.,,r'ir,.
    iii.ii
    !.rllalronlor hol roltingot .lrucluralsreel,ecLion\.lht
    cocrhcienL
    oi
    \urjrtinnfor lhi' proiessm reridlcomhrnrlioni. C,
    0.0r,hl(Hauren.lgaitr
    T.' Jerennrne
    rhc itre,, at rny point on rhe,cctionrequirestfiL rte tr..f f,"
    rcrol!cJinr('compr'nenl\
    n rdllctro rhc princjpuf,".,. to.i.orpnn.nr ,ritt."u..
    ncnorngrn thc pldncot a princifrl dxi,.rnd Lherolrl srrc\s
    ar a givcnr'ninl i. lhe
    sum of the stressdue (o the load componcntsconsiderecl
    scparatel-y.
    ffow"ucr. tirri
    we must considcrthe naturc of thc toading distribution and how
    ir is rcsolved
    about thc principalaxcs.
    The mean of the massof half the conveyorunit was 50kg.
    Assumingthal 6
    srtrnJarddeviaLionr
    rdequalelychrractcrizes
    rhe rulerancerangeol r9-kq. rhc
    rrndrrd Jevralion anproximutesro jkg. Thc mar, of Lhei,";,
    ;.,";y..; ;;:
    srirc\rto rangeliom 0 ro -2lg and it wds3ssumedrhrsmassrrfles r.rndomly
    accord_
    ing_to.rNormaldtstrihution,
    Again we assume
    rhut thismassrangeanproximates
    to 6 nrndard devirrionr. which givesa mein of 16 kg and ,,r"aii,t
    lii,i"ii""
    rlKg._rne tolal ftrJs can be represnted
    "
    b) a Normal dlstribunon
    "i
    with a fieirn
    p.=50+36=86kg,
    and rhe standsrddeviationof tt" rotut *urr, o,...i. if,"
    statisticalsum ofthe independentvariablsgivenby:

    ",,

    = t/l' + tz' = tz.lt te

    Finally.it i!

    Thc tcnsile

    A similar l
    sectionaB I

    Stress-.'t

    Converting
    to nc$lonsforceh) muhiplyingby 9.807giveqlhe loadin lerm<
    uf rhe
    1\Ormuldtstnbulron
    r(

    nndanglcs

    F- ir'(843,I2l)newtons
    The allLtwablemisalignmenrtoterancefor fte verticat tie rod, =
    {r +t.5., is atso
    (onsidered
    Io be normallydistribured
    in practice.
    Wirh tneas,umprion
    rhat,rpproxi
    mutely6 \landarddevialion.arecovering
    lhi, range.rhesrand:rrd
    deriurion beiomes
    d, : 0.5'..The manoflhe angteon which rheprinc;palptanetiesis
    7r",and ttreloaJs
    must be resolvedfor rhisangle.but i1sstandardd.ui"ti,in i" tr," .t"iiiii""r ,u_.i""
    and or, as givenby equation4.103:

    ,t" + 4,
    lt.,

    (4.r03)

    I'

    The Normal distributionparametersof the lengrh,l, can be developedin the


    same
    manneras aboveto grv:

    ? - ff(r250,1.667)
    mm

    of tsritishsl
    assumlngIt

    Case
    studies239
    Therefore,th bendingmomentsresolvedabout the principalaxesarei
    -41"'= F' cosQ' ' l
    Mv":r.sina,.l

    2)

    (4.1ft)
    (4.105)

    Finally, it is evidentfrom Figure4.6j that the maximumtDsilestress


    on rhe section
    due1othe load components
    about theprincipalaxeswill te atpointe. themaximum
    compressive
    stresswill be at point B. From trigonometry,if," alrtun"", Irorn if.,"
    centreofgravity to point A on the sectjonin the directioni of ttreprincipat
    axesarc:

    b
    f

    r./A= tcos rr + tsin o


    ,rA=tco s o -t s in . t

    (4.r06)
    (4.lu1)

    Tle tensilesttessat point A on the sectionZ^ can then be determincd


    by applying
    simplcbendingtheory:

    a
    I

    t _ Mw,u^
    *--1.--

    M",,u^
    1*

    (4.r08)

    A similarapproach
    canbeusedto determine
    thecompressive
    stress
    at pointB on the
    sectionZEwherc:
    _t) _ (r _
    ,B = cosaltana(,
    (4.r09)
    4]
    /b-t\
    - sj na lla n a ('- t ) -(' t -r)l
    '"= \""..-J

    il

    ( 4.I]0)

    U " !. u B M ,, uB
    r _
    '" - -- /,, - --i,

    ( 4.Ilr )

    Stress-ifength lnterterence analysis

    I
    I

    sevcra
    I standd
    rdsecrion
    rizesfor uneq
    url anglcs
    arelistedin Tablc4.I 5 (BS4160.I 9D0
    ).
    for eachstandard
    section.
    firstlhe\tdtistical
    variation
    oftheareaproperties,
    distancis
    andanglescan
    beestimatd
    usingMonteCarlo
    simulaton,
    *ti"t
    ur"aioJ"t.r,
    rnmestresses
    atpojntsA andB onthesection
    "r"tt.n4.lOgand4.1Il.
    fromsolutionofequations
    Thestresses
    foundat pointsA andB for thesections
    tisteA
    areaso snownin iatf" L f f.
    A specifcsralistical
    representalion
    of theyreldnrengrnfor C.aae+:C trot,oitea
    (leetrsnola!atlahlc:
    howe\er.
    thecoemcienl
    of vdriation.
    C*.for rhe]ieldsrrenflh
    of Briri.hnructural
    sleels
    is givenas0.05for a Lhickness
    r S Ir.?#iri;;.
    id;j;
    For convenienc.
    the parameters
    of rhe Normaldistribudo;will b" cal;;Ed ;;
    assuming
    that the minimumvalueis _3 standardaeviatio""frorn ttre lxpecti

    il
    n
    rL, (MPa)

    ,l
    li

    t05.2
    264.2
    2 | I.1
    1 3 3 ,0
    1 4 8 .2
    r4 2 .6
    1 1 4 .0

    451
    39.2
    :L2
    27.0
    22.0
    2 l .0
    t6.ll

    291.u
    264.8
    225.9
    - 176.2
    112.2
    114.5

    'L!

    (MPa)

    436
    32.9
    26.0
    25.1

    r,.648724
    0.918951
    0.999299
    0.9s9995
    1.000000
    r.000000
    I 000000

    0.330391
    0.7151t9
    0.9r8648
    0.996 2
    1.000000
    1.000000

    240 Designingreliable products


    nr c rn v l l L rr rs d e $ rl h c d b y e q u rri on I l :l :
    ) fr,,

    t75 - /r\

    t,s,

    l r\r

    rio 05iir, )

    r 75

    1," ..aii,s l:.r.5MI,r, arrd

    t).05r r:t.5 = l6.t N4t)r

    ",

    ' I hc \i c l l s l rc r!l h o l (;rrd . .1 .l (


    \ tl rel l ][r] \t.cl cl n b! l ptl r()\i nrrl c(l b\:
    .S r - ,\ (l l r 5. l () l )l \' l l ,rl
    I lr ( e ()U tl i n !:(q u x tr(f l a r l h c s l l ( | \: \l rcn!tl i nl rrt(,fcIc. ,| l r t]srsti )f l trc pr$tcIr i \
    :

    11\

    1t!'

    Figure4.64
    \"

    $h. r ( l l i ( Sl l rx | l | (l N o rn l !x i rl c .:. (rI hc rctrl ert ti ) ttrc rcti uhrl i l !. t. r\ !h()\\


    t ) r c\i ,)L r\l \ l h . f({ rl rs rr. t)r(tri (1.(ti r I.rhtr,l .t5 l 1l c tMtrA S c!$i t\ t.t,rrrnr
    (.\l
    I J i )r l h \. s l \l c Ir 1 n (l ,c rl c sr ti ,r!(l rcti .bi trl y /i i , 0 919995trrrr I i grrc .1 rr,
    llir sc (l,),r l Ii \ s Ifc i l i .x l h n . 1 h c 5 l ) / 65 \ | scel i ol h:rsI r(trxtri ti t\ /i rr 0i ),)()99!
    \ ! / r .r l h . tl rc rl c s l \1 ,(\:
    r l hc.,)rLILi nt f(turl hn
    ri s rssU rcs ot (()ursc.
    k .(l
    lhr l l l ' c .(!l l t)re s s i \c \i c l '(ls rl' Lr.n
    e ttr ()t l hc j rrrl eri i rti s crt i \rl (rrl l o l hc tcD si t(,\i ct(l
    r , r .rl ,\l i .h r'
    l r' ..... t,,r r' ." r ,t,.| | t,
    ,r,,.. .,t.

    ,rnrlysi\.I

    4.8.6Bimetallic
    stripdeflection
    linr .l rl l i c c l c rr.n t\ i [. $ i rl c l ! U \e ( lIr i nstr' Ll l cntssU etrr\ rherInosti rtsl () {n\c (! .on
    lr oll c n rf.| rtu rc s l h c rc rr.\.\.ri r] brnrcl ul tj (.tcnrcnl r\' pcsri !l i trbtc.suctri r\\tl l Li ghl
    s lnp s .c o rh rrx l d rs e sb. rL l!l l rc l ) ,,r)ttre{ nrc w orkrn! i nci pl c.l D rt\ nx,\l bl \(. tornr
    fr
    lhe b i l rc rrl l i es l n p e o | n tri s c \o t l N o (i i s\i rni trir)rcl
    r
    i rtstfrIs tronde(tl (j sothrf.u\ l l t,!,)l
    lhc \rrn c s U ri i c . .Ic rl . h L rll l o l n 1 j cc\sl ri t],t thr srnrc rhi cknrssth.rn)strt. I hc e(rI
    rl r)n c(| rd t(j i reti ri r cl nti l c!cf bcun).!n(l i s hori /ontrtrl
    I os n c n rc l ' t s l rrprse L l rD p c (j
    r i f r rl ' .u | ' r l c r]rl 1 e rrl U feW. h c n thc r0l l fc| l rtL| rei s i ncrersc(I.l he \l ri p (l efl .cl si r] th.
    dif c c l i o no l rh cu rtl l l w i l h th c l c rs rcocfl l ci cnlo i ncxrcxpl sur tts $orti ng pri netttc
    o u l h c l u c t tl rl t l h c n rc tl tsw i lt c\tl | d rt di l Ll 1:nlrl tes !s the nri t i s hcrl cct t:hc
    'pur
    c lr ctos s c
    o l l h rsd c l l c c l i o ni \ to l l ti .x l l \ cl usc l hc stfi p l o nl rkc conl i Lctrrrh l * r,i l ch ()f
    c onr p l c tr. r c l c c l fi cc i rc u i l u l l p !r rrcU l l f scl tr)i nl teml )cr tuf. Ibol e l h. ri nrhi cD L
    F rg u rc' 1 6 4 s h o r\ I th c rn ro s rl rc onrIri si ngr hi l neru i c srfi p ti ,rmedbr-bondi ngu
    s lr ' r o l c o l d ro l l c d 6 0 ' .1 0b ri rs s\\i th ! si ]ni l r si /c srfj p otcol d ro cd nri l ctsrcetB oLh
    I hc b frs s l n d s L c c sl l ri p s!fc e x rc tt\ l hrl rl l ncN i (l rhot t5ml l ].Thcbi cr| l ti cstri pj s
    pr . cl \c h l o c rrc c lrn d fi g i c i l i c l u n rpeclsi ri ngr tcn.{thol 70 + 0 { )Smm. W h.n herred
    lr oor rn rL ' n b i e | to r d i rtu mtc n rru fl turc. /0 : l 5 (' . rher) rhc stri p i s hofi zonLat.
    ro j l s
    s dpo l n l trn rp e rrtu fc . 7 : rh c s rri p deU cctsdorn\!ri fus .tD d compl crc\ a1r ctccl ri c
    eir c L ri r 1 l i \ rc q u i re d l o d e te rl n rn crhe scL})i nt reri pcr ture l or i hc hi merrl l i c sl fi p
    lbr r g i \e n d e i l e c ti o no l 2 _ L0 .0 5n nn. w hi ch i s thc di srl ncc tl l .l t scp r teq rhc brsc

    Determin

    Casesrudies241

    Contact
    Etectrical
    insubrion
    Figu re4 .64 T lf t r m nr l inir i, f t r t f r

    ( ) Jr hc nf it ) rr(l l h c rl l j (l ri c rl .(j n ti rc t.tl rs.rl n, fc(tu c(l l () dcl crn)j ncI hc nr()sl(r
    rl i ei rl
    \ r j|lr blf s iI\o l \(l i rr rrrc c rrn ,rrIi s rc q U i rcr]r(It thi )U gh pcrtafl l l rg. sc si trul !
    iI r . r lr \ is lh c l h i e k n (s s o l th c b ri rs \ rl Ip rr05 t00]nl l l . i rn{l l hc nl t(t sl c(t sl ri t)
    r hr . k Dc s s i \0 .,1 0 0 tn IL
    Ih r N I(x i u turot l i ti rsti crl )/t
    l )5(i t' l ti r 60r:10l ,rrss
    { r lh . ' eoc l l i c i c l l o l u rx l ()D (1 .,{ )0 1. i rn(l /r
    t0t(i t' rL ti )r rl ri td stc.t $i l h
    ( , : : il) 01
    th c (o c i l i e rc i rto t t rc x r f\t)rI\ron .,
    l t.j (t0 ,/,( ) ti )r .ol (l fo c(l
    ,'
    ,,
    hf r s s . ir r l J ,)re (,k l ro l l c (l n ri k l n c .l .,,
    1.1.7(t0 (,). h,n]r $i l h l coc i erc0t()t.
    ! ir f r r lr ( ) I ( \ :,0 0 1 ,
    c \t1 n l I.(i tro l r c n g rncc.I! tj l cftturc tr i s rss nrc(t thi rl l hc
    s lr c s s c s\ c l rL pi ,r c rc h rl l | (, (l c l l e e tro ,rrLrc{ cl 1 bct,rtr l hLj i rvi ckt sl rc
    el hs i Ixl
    lhr l r r ) r es i (l u i rl\(r$ s $ ,!.l (l i Ig
    Ir th f i (ti !i d l t stfi t Iri tcfi xl .

    Detemining the temperaturevariation

    ' lhc r r r \ inr u l r(l .l l c e l j ,' rrl 1 h c ti c c c

    (l o tl hcbi nrctrIi rstfi t).r,,,,..(l U etoxl rnrl )rrr


    lr f c r n. r c r s c l i o l r /, t{ ) / i s g r\c r h y (Younr. t98,)):

    ( 1| | r )

    / : l c rg rh o l th e h i rn cl al l i csl ri l
    r' (

    l i D u c o e fl l c rc n to l erprnsi on of l nrtd steel

    ,{B: lincxrcoelficieor

    l h i c k n e s so l b rl s ! strl p
    N l o d u l u s o f l -l a s ti ci l ] l i )r
    N l o d u l u so f El a s ti ci l vfor

    ''

    242 DerigningteliablePtoduds
    Replacingthe changein lemperature(I - 70) with AI' which is a randomvariabl
    for thr\ rermgi\L'
    il'elf,dnd reurrdnging

    and the rn

    (4 . 1 1 3 )
    The varianceequationto determinethe standarddevialioflof the changein tempera_
    lure can be wrtlrcn as:

    (ff)'a*(H)'d.l'
    ,(H)'"r.
    Itai.:)'",.

    ";,J,,.
    "r (ff)'",.-(H)'
    l-tgl'r"-(*i)'

    Sensiti

    For the pr
    setpoint I
    thermost

    From th

    variables

    the meanvalutsfor
    by substituting
    The meanvalue,!A?, can be approximaled
    to be r4ndomin
    areassumed
    eachvariableinlo equation4 l 14 All eigbtvariables
    parameters
    for each
    naturefollowingthe Normaldistribution.A summaryof the
    variableis givei belo\4.The standarddeviationof eachhasbeendrivcd,in the
    coverthe tolrance
    thal 6 standarddeviations
    and l. from assuming
    caseof 1,,n,",
    using
    froman appraisal
    rangegivJn,in thecascof the individualsttip thicknesss,
    cxpansion.
    of linear
    and coefrcients
    C,{ *na io tt'" caseof th elasticconstants
    of variationprovided.
    direcrlyfrom thecollicints

    .L

    For thefi
    variance
    c

    m
    ]'* - /v(0002'0'000017)
    ' ds N(0.0003,0000004)m
    rn
    dB- N(0 0005,0.000002)
    ts - N(208,6.24)GPa
    ,'ts- N(los,2l )GP!
    6/"c
    es - N(1 2 . 7 , 0 1 2l0
    7)
    6/"c
    .rB- N(1 s . s . 0 1 8l0
    5)
    m
    I - N(0.07,0.000017)
    termin cquation
    to AppendixXl, wecansolveeachparlialderivaiive
    With relerence
    give:
    melhodlo
    4.114usingrheFrnrleDrlference

    6)'
    too)'?,(r.rto ')?+(t.oer,ro')"(+ ' lo
    f (z.o,rs
    '
    '
    ro ")" (ez+ ton)'?
    x toa)':x
    (zx to 6)'?+(t.trz
    I +(a.,rr
    "
    '
    tzr lo u1'
    x
    to')"1o
    x
    lo')'?+(t.+rz
    to
    +(-2.+rs
    |
    'r)2,.(z.t
    '
    '
    u
    )
    ?
    +
    (
    x
    L
    o
    a
    )
    '
    ?
    x
    ( t . z x5t)o' z
    2
    4
    2
    1
    l +1 r.+ts * to';"(o . t r s ' l0

    Repeatin
    lng oroer

    for the n
    settilg th
    propertie

    minimal c
    This ca
    than for
    developm
    the basic
    and it is
    problem

    Casestudies 243
    Dle

    and
    oAr = 3 41"C
    and the meanpAr = 84.74'C.Therefore,thc setpointtemperatureis givenbyl

    ,l])
    Itar-

    T - AT + To= 84.74
    + t5 =99.14"c
    Sensitivity analysis
    Foathe purposesofmeetinga customrspccification,a tolerancefor the thernostat
    setpoint temperaturecan be estimatedat +3aAr, from which the approximate
    thermostat
    spcifi
    cationbecomesi
    r-1 0 0 + ll" C

    [4)
    ifor
    t in
    tch
    the
    hce
    Itlg
    bn.

    Fromtle FinitcDifrerence
    methodresultsabove,thecontribution
    of thevari4nc
    of
    eachvariableto the temperaturcvariancecan be estimatedto focusin on the key
    variables
    boundingtheproblem,Thisis an attemptto rcducethethermostat
    spcificaliontolerance
    to aroundhalf its cuffentdesignvaluc,
    ,1r = (0.203)
    + (0.t82)+ (0.02E)
    + (j.345x lo-3)+ (2.579
    x l0r)
    + (3.49?)
    + (7.5s0)+(0,169)
    = t1.637
    For thefirst term,th variance
    contributionof the dflection
    variable,
    ,mrx,to the
    varianceof th temperaturcasa percentage
    btomes:
    0.203 _^^
    lttn/1 $ = t . . t 4 %

    rion

    Rcpatingthe abovefor eachvariableand rankingthepercentage


    valuesin descending ordergivesthe Paretochartin Figure4.65.It is evidenttlat over90% of the
    variarce in the tchprature is due to the variancof the expansioncomcierts
    for the metals usd. These are the most critical variablesin the problem of
    setling the tolerancespecifrcatiod,A ttter ulderstandilg and control of these
    properties
    of the metals!or eventhe usof morexoticmaterialsthanthosefirst
    chorn, will leadto a reductionin th achievable
    variation.This is because
    the
    othervariables
    in the problem,suchas the elasticconstants
    of the metals.havea
    minimalcontribulion.
    This casestudyhashighlightd
    the useof probabilistic
    designprinciplesother
    than for the pu.poseof SSI analysis.
    For lrearlyeveryengineeriDg
    problem,the
    developmentof an answerusing probabilistic tEchriquesrelies on manipulating
    the basicgoverningfunction for tle parameterof interst,as would b dode in
    a deterministicapproach.A developmentfrom first principlesis not necssary,
    and it is commonlytle determidation
    of the randomvariablesinvolvedin the
    problemwhich requiresfurther and a more thoroughinvestigation.
    For the
    situationabove,a standa.dformulationis available,
    whichis the casefor manv
    problems.
    engineering
    Albough rbe malhematics
    neededfor a probabilistic

    244 Des ig n i n g
    re l i a b l p to d u c l s

    D csq.varabe
    F ig u re4 .6 5 !f i , I ! rr r [ 7 r! l (r r]r l r JIri rl rro!.tr.r

    r ni rl \s i \ L sIn o rc (()| rrt)1 (\th :rn x {l .l .rrrrrrri sl i (,)nc. i rny cnsl rrcerLrrg
    l r()l )l .rrrcxri h(
    f )ro ,re h e (li rr r s rIrl l l f n r..h i rl sl i ( l x\l ri on Lrsr.! l hc l c.hD i tl Lr.srrr(l rrrrl l i ,\l ol ,)!\

    t igur e4. 6

    b.r(l l !

    4.8.7Designof a con-rodand pin

    tj j

    l l( r xll\

    Design
    lh i s .rs e s l u (l l (l i s !L rs s clsh . (l ctgr) ,,l tr r..i fftJerti D g rrrcehxrrl crl| rcss l i ,r l h('
    r n n .u l r.l u re o l c rn l r(l ' (| i r\!rr 1r(l rt shccl \l ccl nrrrl cri rrll hc!ul l ors$(r(rrr\(,1!e(l
    in rh r e x rl \ s l rg c so i l h c Iro (l u e l Jc\ fl ()frrrtnl P n)ccssl o x(l !i sc th. e(!nl rr| ! dfsi gn
    r n g rh c tre s \ rr c h o o s i n gb c l $ e errr rru rbu r)! (i c\i gn rrl l crD rl i l csw ri h l Ie gortl ol
    c D s u rl l l grl s r.' l i rh rl i l t Ih c ru l L (,rs usc(ll fn)bubi l i sl rerttfrl )rcl r 1(rl hc frobl cm Lo
    f f o ri d e l h r n c c c s \rr,-d e e | l :. o l cl i rri rr'bcl $ccn l hc.orrrl .l i ng \(i l trl r,i .\
    th e ff.s \ h n l l b .e r c l .s i g | e (l$ i rh r crpr.i r) ro cl tl i \ef l 80kN ffcss l ;fcc rnd t(l
    wo fk r1 rLtro J u e l u r rri c o l ,l 0 l i ,l \l )err)rrnul c (xl cu1l rl i onsl t) (l cl crni rn. tl rccl i s_
    t f i h L rl i o no l l i ,rn ru g l o l d s fc q rri r.dr.di crl ed thtrl the rucss!i rprrci l ! $!s rcl cqtrttl tto
    orr the mrrchi nc.a).c ol rh. nrN l orrfers
    iif n r th c l l n ri l } - o l s te e ll 1 (l \l ,i b . procl ucecl
    ol i n rc rc s lrn th c d .s i g n \\' rs l h c con n u d ti r (secI i rurc I66) Thc l i rsl opti ol r
    c o n s (l c rc d N l s b rtd o n a p rc\i ous cl csi g| w hefe the con nri $!\ nrxD ul i cttrfed
    t
    lcrds. H o\e\cr.
    lio m c rs r rfo n $ i rh p h o s p h o rb r onze berfi ngsrtl rh. bi g aD Csnrxl
    of
    ol
    hef
    otl i ons. Ihc
    \ . ! l tD c \s e s i o rh i s u p p ro rc h rl e cessi (rl cdthc !oni dcrrLi ol r
    pfohrtbi l i srrc
    pi
    n
    con
    rocl
    usi
    ng
    sunfl
    e
    nnd
    c r \c s tu d t p re s e n rsl h c rn rl \s i s of l hc
    prerr
    p
    n
    n
    r.l
    rtbl
    t
    opefrti
    or.
    Ihc w e) t
    c in
    Lc e h n i c tu ei n\ i rn rl l c n rtL to
    ' crltii cc
    l
    nri
    i
    nrcnxD
    cc
    rod
    repri
    f
    i
    r
    thc cl cnL
    $c rk l i n k w rs i n trx l u c c d 1 (] e n sufc crsc

    shdr . I

    t hc s\ slc

    I he1I

    sl) er f . Tl

    Casestudies 2.15

    Fiq ure 4. 66 , r I ndt

    { , r p, ,

    il

    ,i,,1

    ir olf r j o .' (t!tu l l i o n r\i rl s o (,,\c r.(l


    ()rrrt()u(tsl \,tri cr!oefrLr rt.l
    "l
    tressf(l | i Iti s
    lx dll o ru rtrl c rl ri tfi i r th c frc * d i .s ()r l t l l ;reLeDtro,l 1 i , c:rughr,rr
    rhc i tLcscr.
    l' 1df ll' , (l c \c fi b c d :rs r \t,Il | r,j r i n rhc Iorks. A ni rt!si st)J.{trcbotts rs nol
    .o\cft(t

    Design strategy
    I r ' f r x lLr c l r)n th c p rc s s N i l tb !o | )| rrl i n gxrrni i ol sotcyel cs/)r!r,/r r Ihcrel ;rc.i l
    r lr { , uld h . (l !\i !I.d u g ri n s l j rl rg u c l urtur.. xncl thc eon,11)dl n(i pi n
    l l rust bf
    engr nc e fc rlIn th c l S h t o l l h c d i n .h uri ol r)j th. l \!r.i rtcd cn(l Lrfrr)ec
    stfcD tth i n
    s hc r r lr(r th c p u rto \rs o j th c x .u ly\i s i l w l \ !s\ul ]rc(t thrl rhc rppl i c(l
    sLrc\s
    r oulc l h l !c .D c x l rc n rc\i rtu . c o re s P of(ti l ! L{)the rfftrcxri on of l Ic ti 0kN
    l (,r(1.
    A s o. iD c l rrr-i n g o L rtth c l ru t!s i s , f fr(xi orrr. sl l l l rsLrcl t rodet\ w l j rc
    r.c(l cd ti ]f
    t hc nlr t e ri l s e n d u fi l rc e\rfc rg rh b u sed(Jnthe r!l i [rbl . (trttu.A \ n]cnLi oned.ufl i er.
    t hc s \ s t e rD\!l s to b c d e n g .c d ri rh l u,.rt ti nk. T,) sl l rstj thi s rcqui rcnrent
    rhc pi r
    wls des i g .c ds u c h l b l t i r \o L rl c l tx i t i n x. o!eftond.i i tl [ti or.
    I he r r rl c fi L i l s c l c c re cl il)r rh e p i n q l s 070M10 rorml l i zed ni kt sl eel .The
    frr $us to
    bc ur u' r u l l c tL rrc dh r o !h i trl l rg ti o rn brf rncl !\l s .rssLrmcct
    to br!r non cri ri c!l
    d' Dr c r s()n rl | i l ri x ri o n i n l c rn s o t l h c stressdi stri buti ol r.l nd l hcfci brc rhc
    o!.rtoad
    nr c \ s c o u l d b c rc p rc s c n rc cbl l - I u n i que \!l uc Thc pur si Teroutd be (tcternri .cd
    br s ed on th .
    i s l a n d a fd d c l j l rl o n tj mi t ot the ri al crj rl .s e| duf nce \rrcngrh i n
    \ her r T h i s i rt.rs th rt rh c p ro b !b i ti t) 01 Jl i hrc of l hc con_rodrystcmtl ue Lo
    I.uri guc
    $' ould bc v e r! k )$ ' .l ro u n d l :l 5 0 p p n rrs\umi | g rt N or.rrrl cj i srri buri ont.orLhc
    end-Ln
    anc cdf crg rh i n s h e .tr.T h i s re trl e sto r rcl i rbi Iry R ! 0 999 $ hi ch i s r(j equrl c
    for rhc

    246 Deiigningrliableprodocts

    Substitut

    Finally,su

    Summari
    mild sleel

    The pin is

    3lnglh

    Flgure4.57Stess-strength
    inteffercnce
    lorthepin
    non-safetycritical nature of the failure mode. The situation is represented
    in the
    stress-strength
    interfernce
    diagramgivenin Figure4.6?.

    Detemination of the pin diameterand con-rcd seclionsize


    strength
    Thereis no dataavailable
    on theendurance
    ill shearfor thematerialchosen
    for thepin.An approximate
    methodfor determining
    theparamercrs
    ofthis malerial
    propertyfor lowcarbonsteels
    is givennext.Thepin sleelfor theapproximate
    section
    sizehas the followingNormal distributionparameters
    for the ultimatetensile
    strengtt,Sr:
    sI,]- N(50s.9,25.3)
    MPa
    The endurancestrengthin bending,Se,is commonlyfound by multiplyingsx by an
    empirical
    facior,typically0.5for steels.
    For mild steel,tle relationship
    is (Waterman
    andAshby,1991):
    S? = 0.47Sr]

    ( 4.rl5)

    The relationshipbetweenthe enduralcestrengthin shearto that in bendingis given


    by (Haugen,1980):
    ,c

    0.577Se
    ^r
    Therefore,substitutingquation4.115into equation4.116gives:

    (4 . 1 1 6 )

    = l36.6Mpa
    p.. = o.27ps,: 0.2',t(s05.9)
    strcngthin bending,at 106cyclesof
    Typjcallyfor the variationof the endurance
    (Fuman,
    1981):
    operation

    The minin
    standardd

    Therefore

    Thefinals
    ln desi

    individua

    mellt. ln O
    of th pin.
    ultimste s
    tensileand

    Therefore

    standardd

    Case
    studis 247
    Substituting
    equation4.115into theabovegives:
    ds. = 0.038pr].
    Finally,substituting
    equation
    4.116into theabovegivesthestanalard
    deviation
    of the
    endurance
    strength
    in shearto be:
    = 0.022(505.9)
    o,, = 0.022ps,
    = I l.l Mpa
    Summarizing,
    the parameters
    for the endumnce
    strengthfor 070M20normalized
    mild steelin shearare:
    '"-x (1 3 6 . 6 , I L l)MP a
    Thepin is in doubleshearin ser1r'ice.
    Thediameter,
    by:
    4 is determined
    (4.|7)

    F
    F = shearforce
    icmin= minimum endurancestrengthin shear.
    iD the

    The minimum endurancestrengthfor the problem statedearlier is set at the _3


    standafddeviationslimit. thereforel
    i..nin= pr, - 3dr,= 136.6- 3(l lr 1) = t03.6Mpa

    iosen
    llcnal

    Therforel

    0.63662x 2 8 0 x 1 0 r
    = 0.0415m
    = 41.5mm
    10l.6r t06

    DCtron
    lasile

    Dyan
    nDan

    l,rrt
    glven

    Lrl6)

    Th final selectionofpin diameterbasedon preferrednumbersgivesd =


    Z42mm.
    h designirgrhe con-rod,we wish to ensurerhat the pin wil f;il, in tle;;se ofan
    overload,in preferenceto the con-rod. To realizethis, the mean valuesof thejr
    individualstrengthdistributionsareto be setapartbya margintoensurethis rcquirem-ent.In this way, the probabilityof con-rodfailurewill becomeinsignifrcanlto that
    of the pin. The force to shearthe pin in an overloadsituationis a-functionof the
    ultimate shearstrength,7u, of the material.The relationshipbetweentle ultimate
    tensileand shearpropertiesfor steeljs (Green.1992):
    t" = 0 75S!
    Thelefore:
    z"

    ls of

    N(3?9.4,19)MPa
    We assumethat the maximum r timate shar strergth, rurox, of the pin is +3
    standard deviations from the mean value, therefore
    ,rn * = p," +3o,, = 379.4+ 3(19):435.4Mpa
    F = 1.5708',-"*d' : 1.5108 436.4x 106x 0.0422= l.2l MN
    '<

    2,18 Desigflingreliable pfoduds

    f
    a52

    F ig u re4 .6 8 8 r!r rl rtrJ tro r\ o l l l r I o , rnl nfr Icfl l ((N i !tror,

    Figure4 t
    ' lh c n .rl s l r!:c i : l () (l c rL h l c th t eon ro(l si /. hxsc{ lorr 1l l i \ l (,rcc l | rn\rnL11.(ll ronr
    ol l nrLl l (n{l .r(J\\ scel ron
    t h. | | r rn l h c ,\.rl o r(l \rrrL rri o. l It hi rsre(l i rrrerrsi orr\
    :l 68
    sh()rvrr
    rgrrtri
    b
    r()r/c
    l
    )crrrg
    rr(
    rri
    I
    r r .o rto ri rl i n g r Ih ,,s l )h 0 r
    ( i L !.r l h c ((^ l (o n s l rri rl s i rrf l \((l (rr l hf f(ss hrrnrcrl ctgtr. rD (l l hc (l e:Lrcl o
    nr i n i rri /. d rrr(rr\k )n l l !,rri rr1 i ()n.l I( { xrrre ri rtl ffi rtl rl l s \cl c.l ctl ti )r l hc c(,rrr({l
    /). rsi n! l hc si rrr. sl cell or l l rc(orrr(\l :
    eio s s s (c l ro r. l ,)(l d c rn rl rc l l re ni rrerrsi ()rr.
    5(,59

    llls l)

    Obsen

    :l l o N l l ' rL

    (,05(/) r)0il l

    .l

    i rcx ol l h. sccti on

    4.9
    S o l v i n gJ i )r /) s rl c s :

    iy

    !11 lli

    0.051410:l0" l

    {).108:l
    nr
    1 111152

    108.1n r

    A g ri n . l l p rc l c rre d u l o e i i f th c l l cLurl sccl i ol r$i dth w oul d be /): l l t)nnn In r


    l y th i l n l h u L trescnl ed i n S ecti on,1.8.1.w c hu!c scpl rxrcd rhc
    nro rc s i D rrl i ti e c\\a
    strcngl h st.n.l rrd
    f iil u rc o l th e p rn i l 1 n n th . c o n rod b,\ rpproxi l rl rl el y l + l
    de \r.]l l o n s . l h e rc l u n l s c fl rx l i o r c.l l l be modcl l cd l i )r thc di nri buri on ol l he sherr
    lirrce in the pin nDd rcllsile force in thc con r1)d. .Ls illusrrrted ir Figlrfe ,1.69.
    T h e s l -e ty mu fg i n . S\4 . i s c rlcLrl rted to b..1.61. or dcl nred another $l y. thc
    which is rd.qu tc li)r rhc .rpplicxtion to rvoid oveftlcsign
    relirbillt)' { - 0.999991J

    \idc rhr

    rppIcul

    Summary 249

    105

    F igur e
    4. 6 9 5 e p flro no frtr.rn i n d (o n({ tf (tr(c\

    Observations
    I lporl rrt
    ^n
    t li) r r ir ilr ' tr

    l s | .c l (J l l trc s i n rftc Ir()brhj ti sl r. rP ff()rch usc(l


    rbo\c srs l hrt i l
    .rn . ,., .,t,t. r I:,r,.rtr r.,r,.tr.
    ' .t,.rr.1 rr
    )rth..,.:r_I.....t rrt l trr

    ,'.'i'','-'
    :lil:iii:'";trtri:t:
    :1t;.,
    ,ll;:r::;,1.1,1.';l;ll):r.]],,::li
    lr r l, r . r l rtr.rrl ..r!\rr.i t.$ ,,rr\\r,,r| !tr1t,rr.tr.,t..,hr.r.rr.rt,fr,,ht.| .ur,r,.,rl

    ..',r .,,.,i ,.,, ...,,, r.r,,,, . r.,,r.. . , , , . ,\.. , hr , . . ., , . . , .,r.


    , , , 1 r,., , .. . , . i,,., .,,r' ' , 1

    book A tlliguc rrrrtysisti),.lhc coI nrl wout(tr)cc(l


    t()llkc into lcco rrlril trelor\
    rllc'rir)grhcrrri!ueriii. suchrs nresscon.cIrr!ri1!rs
    i||)cr
    srrrrccrin]srr.
    llowcvcr.il
    rt,..r...
    ,{(i,,.,.rr,r.n..,..r,
    r!,.,,.,a..r.rr.
    .,r
    .,.
    :,
    ||..
    rr
    r.,t,.
    1,:, ...llr!
    :,1,.':,,,'.
    r c . , r c r . '..,

    In .i . L i tr.t
    rr., , .,, j ,r\t t..,h.,hrt..rh.r..l r! rJ Jr\,rl
    r r c ( ll|c e tc d rd ( rrl c r ( t9 1 6 ). l l ru Sc n ( tr)t())uncl
    Mi schkc ( I99l )

    4.9Summary
    rr
    z ,,r ,1\c,- ,,r 1 ,.,,
    .,n r ,r ,..,.
    l"
    l l :...,.t
    1 , . , ,J,n:: , ,r(r, , , , .r,n,,,,r,.rtr.
    ., r r .,..
    on lllr'i . .5l,rn
    ' / n)l:! ll:
    r.,
    !

    D .r.. , I.rr J.-i r:r rrrt,r.,or,,

    :lllil:.',1i;;;iril;'iii::li:r;
    ;,,i.:'J,,l,:.:li,lr,:,tr.,i;lll,t;
    ",i.:

    rpplicrlion.bLrtsincrtirctoAof\lterr
    nu,p.nn,n,un." rclrred, easure\rberc
    , nn $ ,\ h! sh,.h.
    "r. $te,hl
    Inu$
    rF.l Jr.i!,, r. ,,. ,, ,,".,,,,,;;,,,.
    .'\Jf,,.,.e,\,ri\. ,., .rir,.., .1,ti(:,,,,,n. t,1,t",h,t,r.
    ,,pn,,,,.r,,:,.,iri.,.',",.i,
    ior. but hale i.r ro be t.rkenup wiJelybr
    ",,,;;;".,;;;;
    Virtually rlldesjgD paranercrssLr.hrs rolerances.
    lnalcfial propcfrieslrrcl service
    lo.Ldse)ihibits(nnesratisticllvariabiliryand Lrnccr,";tl,
    ,rr"t ;"nr.,,..ir,"
    ot 1le dcsign.A key reqrirementin Lhepfobrbilisticapproach
    "i.qr,r.y
    is dcrailcdknowiedg,e

    250 Des ig n i n gre l i a b l ep ro d u d s


    . r b o u t th e d i l l ri b u (i o n s i n \o l l c d . 1o enabl e pl .rusi bl eresul tsto be p| (X l uced. Ihc
    r lr o u rl o f i rl i rn rrri o n rl ri h b l c.rl thesee.rrl y stagesi s l i rui i ed. i ud i he del i gnel
    nlr k e s e x p e fi e n c e j(lu d g c m .n rs $ hcrc i nfofmrl i on i s l acki ng Ihi si s$hyl hedel er
    nr i rri s ti crp p ro u c h i s s l rl l D o p u l.rr.bccrusenr.ury of the vrfi rbl ei rfe trken undcl
    t hc u n rb fc l l r' o l o n c l rc to r. If krow l edge ol thecri l i cl l ufi rbl cs i n thc dcsi gncrn
    bc c s u m !rc d $ i th i n r c e rtl i r !onfi dcncc l c!cl . thcn l hc probrbi l i sti c rpl l forch
    hc c o n rc srn o rc s u i trh l c I' fo b rb il i sti c (l csi gnthcn tro\i dcs r m()rc rcrl i srl c rrry ol
    lhi D k i n g rb o u t th c d c s i g np r)b l cnr.
    w i th ci csi gn'
    Th i s c h x ttc f h x so u tl i n c (ll h c nrri n concctt\ tl | rdl cchni qucsassoci :rl cd
    ins l o r rc l i rh i l i l ! th i rt h r!c b c e rr(l c!cl ()pc(t\vi l h rcgrrd 1or trobrhi l i sl i c dcsi gn.I)rsl
    l - rrl l s i s (( A ) hrs rrrdc i l fossi bl cro csLi rrtc di n)cnsi orrl
    wo rl i 1 ,n( (,rrJ o n n tl b i l i l A
    v r l i rl ()n . r k (y c o n r| o n c n 1 i D l hc probrbi l i sl i c crl cul ri ti ol l susc(l l s pr ol l hc
    nrc l h o (l o l t)g ! A l c \ p ro b l c n ) i fi pri )btl l l i l i sl i cd$i gn i s rhc S cn.frl i on ol rh.
    c h .frc rc n T i D grl i s l rrb u l i o n \l i )f cxt)!ri nrcnl i rldrl r ' l hc cl l ccl i !c sl xl i sl i c.l rn(xl cl l rng
    , r l n u l c rrl p ro p c rr\ (h l x u ri l scr!i cc l or(l s i s l i rn(hnrcnl rl l o l hc frohxhrl i sl r.
    x f p ro x e h W h c t( l l ri \ (| r1 r.c c ( l s l o bc nrodcl l c(I.l h. nhl cl i i crcnl l cchrrquc\
    n k c rl t()\s i b l c l () (s l i rrrl c th c p.r:rmcl crsl i )r sc!cr.l i nrforl rrl (l i sl l hul i ors
    sl rcsscqurl i ons r: prrl ol
    W c rc c (l i r s tc c i rl rl g c b rt l o o t)cfrl c oD l hc cD grrrcctrnA
    l
    h
    r
    Isc,)1
    1hc\!ri
    !n.ccqu!l
    i
    on.rnr{
    r!oi csl i nrrl i rg
    I
    h
    ro
    u
    A
    h
    t r ()b rh i l i s rr.d c s i g r
    r h e s l rc s : \rri rl )l c i s fn )\i (l c rl b y rcl .l rr!: gcoD rcl ri crD d l oi rd drsl rl hul rori s$rl h l hc
    lr r l u re s o v r' )i n g s l rc s sc q u rl i o r. Mcthods ro !Jl v( th( rrri rr)cc r.Irl i ooshi j rs l i rl
    :rn(lcxl nrpl csgi vcr | ;r rn,)i ,j!onrP l cr
    c u r N o fm rl c o n (| l i o rs h r!c b c cr di sctLss((i
    c r s (\ u s i n gl h c 1 In rl c I)i l l .r.rc e Mcl h({l rnd Monl c ( l fl o si nrul i rl i { ,n l hc utfi tl rcc
    c q L | .| 1 i ()n
    x l n r p i )!i (l e s r \rl u rl )l c (Jol w i l h $hi eh 1o (l frw scnsi l i vi l ] i rtl ctcnccstrt
    S crsr
    girfth re ,)n rrrb u l i o ro l c rc l rv rrirbl cl ol htovrrrl l !l fi rbi l i l yi nrhctr(nrl cD r
    t i! i 1 ! u n tl l y s i si s p !rI o l l h e s rr (i rfd fcl i l hi l i l r- ui ul tsi \ rn(l l hrnrgh i 1sIs. probxhi l
    is t i c mc l h o d s p ro v rl c l In o rc c l li cl i !c w rry l i ) (l ctcfl ni nck.y dcsi gntrrrnrcl crs i rr r
    ( l$ rg n . l i 1 )rn th i s rn d o l h c f i nl i ,nrxl k)D rrr I)rrcl o chrft 1i )nu. the (i csrgrr.fcrrr
    qu i c k l l l i ,c L rso n l h c (l o n rn rn r r !rxhl cs l of r.dc\i gu purposes.
    S rc s s \rfc D g rh i n rc rl c re n c crorl ysi r ol l cfs :r pri rcl i crl cngi nccri nSntpn)rch l i )f
    c le s i g n i rgrn (l q u l n l i l rl i \c l y p r edi rti r)gthc rel i ubi l i l y ol comtoncnl s sLrbi ccl cd1o
    , r c c h rn i c rl l o rd i n g i ' n (l h rs b ecn descfi bedtl s tl si uruLrri \' emi )dcl ol j l i i l ' Ltc.l hc
    pr o b rb i l i l ) o l l i ri l L rrc a
    . n rl h c u ct the rcl i rbi l i l ). c n bc csl i nrrl cd rs thc rftn ol '
    ir tc fl e | c n c c h c l $ ttn l h c s trc s \ xnd sl fengthdi stri buti drs. H ow cvcr. l hc unul r'\i \ ol
    r c l i n h i l i l r u s i n g th i s .tp p ro rc h i s motc ol i cn thrn nol i ncorccLl ) pcfl i )fnrcdxnJ r
    lh o n )u g h u n d e fq trn d i o go f th c l ondi D g tr-pc i s rcqui fcd b! Lhc frrcri l i ol er Tbi s
    c h a p l e r h rs re v i e w e d l h c rp p l i cnri on ol stress qtrel rgl l ri nl erl ereocernrl ysi s 1o
    sorneirDp(rtrnt crsc:i in stntic dcsign xnd hrs pforided melllods to sohe tlre ffoblem
    li)r .rny combi[rtirD d strcssnn(l srrcngth using cbsed-lbflD equrtions of rulreficrl
    w h e n d e s i g n i n gr p ri x l u c l i L i s uscl i rlto hal e r rel i abi l i tytargel .i n order to xl tri i n
    c u s to me rs a ti s fu d i o n u n d fc d u cc l cl el s of ron-conl brmrnce rnd rttendanl tri l urc
    c o s ts .A c l c rrrn D dc o n c i s c.tp p ro ach to i -rl l l rfemode descri pl i onitrnd r1rl i l l hi l i trtnfgcts
    Lhci nl cgr. cd
    de te f| n i n a L k Di s rl s o c ru c i a li n th e devel opmentol rcl i tbl e dcsi gD s..i nd
    us c o l I-ME A i n s e tl l n gl e l i rb i l i ty t rgc! l cl cl s i s a kcy bcD cl i lol -Lhcrpprorch i n thi s
    rclpcc!. A ker obiective of the methftiology is lo prctidc thc dcsigncr wirh .t deeper
    undcfsLnDdins ol lhese crirical design prfnmctcri rnd how Lhcr" inllucncc thc

    thrLlthtr

    usiugl I
    pfovidi

    Summary )51
    L The
    sjgner

    f rhe
    ilFric

    h rhc
    rtrc\

    , in:t

    The

    T his

    tlii
    pr

    adequacyoi the designin its operatingenvironment.The designintent musl bc to


    producedel.tilcddesignsthat roflectahigh rcliabilitywhcnhservice_It is apprecialcd
    thai thereis not alwayspublisheddata on cngineeringvariables.However, uchcnn
    be done by rpproachingenginceringproblemswith a probabilistjclnindset..
    Probabilislicdesignprovidesa traNparentmeansofexplainingto a business
    mo.c
    about the saltly aspectsof enginccringdesigndccisionswith a dgreeot slarirynor
    providcdby the'faclor of safety'anprodoh.Themeasures
    of pcrtorma,cedcrcrmined
    usinga pfobabilisticupproachgiverhc designrs
    moceconndcncein their dcsignsby
    provjdingbetterundcrstlndingof rhc variablesinvolvedand quantitativecsrimares
    for rcliabilitv.

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