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CW The Year Ahead 2015-2016
CW The Year Ahead 2015-2016
CW The Year Ahead 2015-2016
CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
BIBLIOGRAPHY
CBS
Consensus Economics
CPB
DNB
Oxford Economics
This report has been produced by Cushman & Wakefield LLP for use by those with an interest in commercial property solely for information purposes. It is not intended to be a complete description of the markets or
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CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE
CONCLUSION
CONTACTS
CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
PREFACE
Cushman & Wakefield is pleased to present The Netherlands: the year ahead. In this research
paper we look forward to the coming twelve months: we give our view on what is about to come
to the market and how the market will evolve in 2015 and 2016.
With over 40 years of experience in the Dutch real estate market, Cushman & Wakefield has a
proven track record in the Netherlands, successfully adding value for our clients in the advisory
projects we have been involved in over the past decades.
Recent successes we achieved, have helped clients entering the Dutch real estate market
through investments, the opening of a new office, the opening of new logistics spaces and the
opening of their first Dutch (flagship) store. Furthermore, we have advised various investors to
dispose of properties, even given the difficult market circumstances of the past years. We have
also been successful in acquiring real estate against the most favourable prices in the market.
However, despite the past successes we cooperatively achieved with our clients, we are keen
on investing in our relationships with key and new clients. Therefore, we are pleased to present
this research paper outlining our vision for the year ahead. This way, you will get a better
understanding of what drivers will impact the market during 2015 and 2016.
We surely hope you will find this paper useful and are more than happy to discuss any of the
outcomes with you.
CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
THE ECONOMY
CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
THE ECONOMY
International perspective for 2015
FRAGILE RECOVERY
On the positive side, growth should
continue its climbing route in 2015 with
global growth expected to reach 3%
according to the World Bank. The US
recovery will likely lead higher global
growth this year, while Southeast Asian
countries will remain the best
performing nations. Europe should also
slowly come out of its long-lasted
sluggishness. Below are some of the
key factors underlying the growth rate
of the global and European economy in
2015 and 2016.
DIVERGING
MONETARY POLICY
Accommodative monetary policies
have been a key stabiliser of the main
developed economies since the
financial crisis broke out in 2008. It is
likely to remain an instrumental factor
during the coming twelve months.
There is, however, an increasing
divergence between the central banks
policy in the United States and in the
United Kingdom on the one hand, and
the policy of the European Central
Bank (ECB) on the other. The Federal
Reserve and the Bank of England have
already stopped their quantitative
easing programmes. Many analysts
expect them to start raising interest
rates this year, even though recent
low-inflation figures indicate their
tightening attitude to be limited in the
short term.
The Netherlands is
one of the countries to
invest in the years to
come due to the very
high potential of
consumer demand.
CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
THE ECONOMY
International perspective for 2015
CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
THE ECONOMY
Domestic perspective for 2015
EMPLOYMENT IS
RISING
Over the past years, the Dutch market
was characterized by rapidly
increasing unemployment across the
country. The turning point for
employment seems to come in 2015,
with an anticipated decrease of the
unemployment rate by 30 bps over the
year. The decrease of the
unemployment rate, although at a
relatively slow pace, is mostly a result
of an increase in the number of
available jobs, which will increase by
0.6% in 2015. In the end,
unemployment will end at some 6.6%
for 2015. However, it will remain on par
in 2016 as a result of an increasing
productivity of employees, limiting the
demand for personnel.
MODEST GROWTH
2015 will be a turning point for the
Dutch economy. GDP growth is
expected to come to 1.2% overall,
although still mostly driven by a strong
performance of the Dutch export
sector. Nevertheless, domestic
expenditure will slowly but steadily
become a more important driver of
Dutch economic growth. It is even
anticipated to be the key contributing
factor to GDP growth by 2016. This all
points in the direction of a continuous
growth of the domestic economy, with
solid outlooks across various subsectors for 2015 and the years ahead.
Chart: Development of GDP, unemployment rate and real wage growth in the Netherlands
8,00%
6,00%
4,00%
2,00%
0,00%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-2,00%
-4,00%
GDP Growth
Unemployment rate
THE ECONOMY
CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
GROWTH DRIVERS
Growth in 2014 was nearly entirely
driven by the strong performance of the
Dutch export sector. However, 2015
will see private consumption and
business investments contributing to a
vast share of growth as well.
Nevertheless, 2015s growth rate is
slowed down by a foreseen slump in
governmental expenditure. The Dutch
government will still be focused on cost
cutting and decreasing its budget
deficit.
With the export sector being the main
driver behind economic growth in
2014, economic recovery has been
slack. Exports were under pressure
due to the geopolitical uncertainties in,
among others, the Middle-East and
Ukraine. As a result, domestically
produced goods have had a difficult
year in 2014, which holds back the
growth rate of exports.
Nevertheless, with the Netherlands
focus on throughput, mostly a result of
the strong European and global
position of the Port of Rotterdam,
export grew in 2014. It is anticipated to
remain at a comparable growth rate
both in 2015 and 2016. Growth in 2014
will amount to 4.1%, whereas the
anticipated growth for 2015 stands just
below 4%. For 2016, the growth rate is
expected to come to 4% again, still
mostly driven by throughput of goods.
With the growth rate remaining at par,
the Dutch export sector only marginally
benefits from the foreseen growth in
relevant trade across the globe.
However, this is mostly caused by an
increasing market share of emerging
markets taking over some of the
Netherlands share.
CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
MORE TO COME
It will be difficult to outperform the total
market volume of 2014 in 2015, but
some sectors are foreseen to grow in
the year ahead. We expect investors to
be less risk averse in markets with
extremely scarce prime opportunities.
Indeed, for the office market for
example, we foresee an increasing
demand for secondary opportunities in
the major economic regions of the
Netherlands. International investors
generally perceive Amsterdam as the
only prime office market of the country.
However, the top ten cities of the
country will now be on their radar, as
well as more secondary locations in
the conurbation of major cities and the
Randstad as a whole.
International investors will focus on
large-scale investment opportunities,
while domestic investors are generally
in the market for smaller (< 20
million) investment opportunities.
Although secondary product was still
favourably priced in 2014, we
anticipate an increasing diversification
in pricing for various levels of
secondary product in the office market.
Some areas will see upward pressure
on pricing, whereas in other parts of
the country certain asset classes will
still be devaluated in 2015.
AVAILABILITY OF
FINANCING
Banks were hesitant with real estate
financing in previous years, but an
increasing volume of real estate
financing slowly became available in
2014. We foresee this trend to continue
and even to accelerate. The financial
market is increasingly becoming an
international market, with the
Netherlands being of interest as a
result of the relatively high spread on
real estate loans. With an increasing
liquidity in 2015 and the historically low
interest rates that are currently
registered, availability of debt will be
high in 2015. As a result, investors
have sufficient capital available for real
estate investments, although banks are
not expected to loosen their LTV
covenants of 6575%.
Despite increasing liquidity, banks
remain cautious in financing assets
considered more risky. Long lease
contracts are important, while location
has been increasingly important for
banks as well. Lastly, if one is to invest
in a relatively illiquid market, banks will
remain cautious providing finance for
such projects in 2015 as well.
The availability of finance will be
widened in 2015, but financing levels
are not expected to reach pre-crisis
levels. This is mostly a result of the
regulations that became in effect, such
as Basel III, which force banks to have
a larger amount of capital in-house to
resist possible stress periods.
Furthermore, we expect some banks
may dispose of their non-performing
loan portfolios in 2015. This will widen
the availability of available capital for
new financing projects.
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CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
LOGISTICS
INVESTMENT MARKET
Logistics assets have been highly
sought after in 2014, driven by the
scarcity of prime investment product
and the scarcity in the occupier market.
Especially the main logistics regions of
the Netherlands were highly favoured,
although portfolios with some assets
outside of these areas still traded in
2014 as well.
In 2015, price levels for prime logistics
space in the best locations are
expected to come under further
pressure, with yield levels expected to
equal those of the best years pre-crisis.
Indeed, demand is high for prime
logistics assets and risk is perceived to
be limited. Occupiers are hardly able to
move anywhere as a result of the
limited supply of modern logistics
space in the best spots of the country.
Demand will again be driven by
international investors, while various
funds, both domestic and international,
have now found their way to the
logistics investment market as well.
The latter investor group perceive the
logistics market as interesting. The
achievable returns are relatively
healthy compared to the risk level
coming with an investment in some
other markets. Indeed, with the target
returns of various funds, pricing in
some other markets will hardly meet
the investor criteria and as a result, this
group will increasingly be active in the
logistics market.
11
CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
In 2015
OFFICE INVESTMENT
MARKET
The total investment volume in office
space reached over 2 billion in 2014.
It is difficult to imagine that 2015 will be
the fourth consecutive year office
investment volumes rose compared to
the previous year. Nevertheless, with
office investments in 2006, 2007, and
2008 varying between 4.2 billion and
7.8 billion, it is certainly not
impossible to outperform the 2014
volume.
Previously, the majority of the office
market could be divided into two main
areas: investors either focused on
prime or secondary assets. In 2015,
the office investment market will see
more diversification. Especially the
market area widely considered
secondary will increasingly be divided
in multiple areas. For these, market
performance varies widely.
We foresee the prime (or core) area of
the market to remain tight with hardly
any availability, resulting in limited
investment activity. In 2015, we expect
the upper tier (or core+) area of the
market to widen and to be highly in
demand. Among others, back-office
locations in Amsterdam, areas in
Rotterdam, The Hague, and Utrecht,
as well as high-quality buildings in
various locations of the Randstad with
long lease contracts, will increasingly
be targeted this year. As a result of the
high demand, price levels for this
product are expected to become under
increasing pressure, with investors
favouring long lease contracts with
prime tenants above the location of the
building.
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CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
RESIDENTIAL
INVESTMENT MARKET
Recently, the residential market has
increasingly been targeted by both
domestic and international investors.
This trend will continue for at least two
more years. For 2015, some large
portfolio deals are expected to be
completed by both international
investors and domestic investment
funds. The latter investor class are
expected to show significant
investment activity for the first time
after various years of consolidation and
disposition. Especially portfolios with at
least thirty premises seem interesting
to the active buyers. Contrary to their
focus of two years ago, they will now
focus on optimizing the exploitation of
the residential portfolio rather than
selling off units individually.
With investment activity expected to
remain high in 2015, the market will
continue last years trend of high
investment volumes. The investors
seem to have found their way to the
Dutch residential sector, for which the
outlook is perceived positive.
2015 - 2020
2015 - 2030
2015 - 2040
13
CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
In 2015
RETAIL INVESTMENT
MARKET
Both the retail occupier and investment
markets have experienced
fundamental changes to their
standards in previous years. However,
both tenants and landlords increasingly
embrace these changes. The retail
investment market seems to be gaining
momentum again with various
opportunities in the market.
Traditionally, it was dominated by
domestic investors, but in 2015
international investors increasingly
target the Dutch retail investment
market. Especially the sector
considered more secondary is
interesting for international investors.
They see opportunities in optimizing
the real estate and tenant mix,
decreasing occupancy costs, and
refurbishing the generally relatively old
shopping centres.
With the retail landscape changing
drastically, retail is becoming more of a
leisure activity that can be combined
with other leisure facilities. Most
international investors are experienced
in combining retail with food &
beverage, and leisure. As a result, they
believe in the opportunities the Dutch
market has to offer. Investing in retail
real estate used to be about the
acquisition of the estate. However,
international investors are focusing
increasingly on the operational side as
well, with local asset management
companies on the ground to develop
the shopping centre function. Certainly
positive is that the investor focuses on
a qualitative impulse for the shopping
centre itself as well as for the domestic
retail market as a whole.
14
TRANSF
THE WAY T
WORKS, SH
LIV
ORMING
THE WORLD
HOPS AND
VES
CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
17
CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
EXPORT GROWTH
DRIVER
Historically, the Netherlands has been
one of Europes main countries for
logistics. With its main ports Schiphol
Airport and Seaport Port of Rotterdam,
the country holds two hubs that are
amongst the most important logistics
conurbations of the continent. With
global trade still slowly increasing, the
Dutch logistics sector has shown
growth over the previous years as well.
It is foreseen to retain its position as
main driver of the Dutch economy,
although by 2016, it may come in
second place, being overtaken by
domestic expenditure. Still, also for
2016, growth is foreseen for the export
sector, which will naturally affect the
logistics market positively.
Indeed, the logistics market performed
extremely well in 2014, with high levels
of demand for modern logistics space
across all logistics hot spots of the
country. As a result of the high demand
and limited availability, landlords have
seen an increasing competition for the
best logistics space. However, some
have agreed shorter lease terms to
meet occupiers demand.
18
CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
E-COMMERCE AND
RETAIL LOGISTICS
In general, demand for logistics space
comes from various sectors.
Nevertheless, we expect demand from
e-commerce and retail players in the
market to rise in the immediate future.
Their increasing share in the logistics
market may lead to some changes in
the Dutch logistics landscape.
The present logistics structure for web
shops and retailers is not yet entirely
focused on the rapidly enlarged market
share of e-commerce in the retail
sector. As a result, goods are still
distributed in a relatively traditional
manner. Carriers currently dominate
the market for e-commerce and
logistics players. However, we foresee
that both e-commerce players and
retailers will change their distribution
patterns towards a more local
distribution network. This will also
enable e-commerce players and
retailers to take care of the so-called
reverse logistics: A logistics process
consisting of returning goods or
products from the point of consumption
to the point of origin, for the purpose of
recapturing its value (re-using, repair,
etc.) or proper disposal (waste).
Changing distribution
by e-commerce
players and retailers
will result in less
polluted historic city
centres.
19
CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
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CUSHMAN &
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LOGISTICS
INVESTMENTS
IT companies are
expanding rapidly,
evidenced by a
growing amount of
leased office floor
space between 2010
and 2014.
21
CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
POLARISATION OF
OFFICE LOCATIONS
The distinction between prime and
secondary office locations has been
visible increasingly over the past years.
And 2015 will surely show a further
polarisation between these two
categories. Driven by occupier
demand, prime office locations will turn
more towards landlord-friendly
markets. Occupier demand is focused
on well-accessible (multi-modal)
locations in the major cities of the
country. While the availability of largescale office space is generally limited
here, this will slowly result in rising
effective rents. Although headline rents
will mostly remain flat in 2015, we
foresee a slow decrease of the
incentives in prime markets.
Prime markets are generally
characterised by accessible multimodal locations. However, occupiers
are increasingly demanding more
services as well. A prime office district
should combine good accessibility with
a wide variety of services offered to its
occupiers. While services should at
least include the supply of food and
beverage operators, the availability of
leisure facilities (such as sports/fitness
clubs) and retail facilities is also
perceived favourably by occupiers.
Furthermore, the location in the city is
increasingly important, mostly for
businesses with a vast amount of
international employees who prefer the
city centre both for leisure and
residential purposes. As a result, office
locations with good transportation and
access to the city centre will be
increasingly popular in the next years.
Inner circle:
prime locations
Landlord
Tenant
22
CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
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CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
In 2015
24
CUSHMAN &
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THE SHOPPING
CENTRE MARKET
Traditionally, shopping centres have
been important in the Dutch retail
landscape. With the majority of the
Dutch shopping centre stock being
fairly small-sized, they generally had a
neighbourhood or district serving
function.
With consumers increasingly being
able to travel towards shopping
locations, we expect a further
polarization between the larger,
generally anchored by two
supermarkets, and smaller
neighbourhood shopping centres.
Shopping conditions have to be in
good condition free parking,
guaranteed safety, clean and bright
lay-out. However, consumers have
shown to prefer somewhat larger
shopping centres with additional shops
and facilities above smaller
neighbourhood centres only offering
daily goods. Nevertheless, a major
share of the shopping centres with a
neighbourhood serving function is
relatively old. As a result, consumers
are increasingly less attracted to this
somewhat outdated stock. Therefore,
they increasingly move to less
outdated shopping locations.
Opportunities in 2015
will mostly be in
distinctive retailers and
brands, their product
offers and promotions.
25
CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
CONCLUSION
26
CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
Adding value for our clients has always been our key priority at
Cushman & Wakefield. We are keen to retain our valuable
relationship with all of our clients and continuously look for
opportunities to improve our service level to them.
We look forward to working with you in the future, in a rapidly
changing real estate environment. We believe we have the ability
to inspire you in the way you work, shop and live but first and
foremost use this knowledge to come to the best result in advising
you.
27
CONCLUSION
CUSHMAN &
WAKEFIELD
Cautious optimism
28
CONTACTS
CAPITAL MARKETS
JEROEN LOKERSE
MATHIJS FLIERMAN
jeroen.lokerse@eur.cushwake.com
mathijs.flierman@eur.cushwake.com
RETAIL AGENCY
ARJEN BOESVELDT
Partner - Retail
arjen.boesveldt@eur.cushwake.com
pepijn.vandenbosch@eur.cushwake.com
OFFICE AGENCY
PIETER VAN DER PEET
+31 (0)6
pieter.vanderpeet@eur.cushwake.com
riens.vanderwaals@eur.cushwake.com
LOGISTICS AGENCY
HYLCKE OKKINGA
Associate - Logistics
hylcke.okkinga@eur.cushwake.com
michiel.vandenbout@eur.cushwake.com
RESEARCH
MICHIEL BOONEN
Senior Consultant - Research
T: +31 (0)20 800 2000
michiel.boonen@eur.cushwake.com
JUSTIN DE GIER
BORIS ZIERMANS
justin.degier@eur.cushwake.com
boris.ziermans@eur.cushwake.com
ARTHUR MOERMAN
Associate - Retail
Associate - Retail
gijs.vandedem@eur.cushwake.com
arthur.moerman@eur.cushwake.com
www.cushmanwakefield.nl
Cushman & Wakefield The Netherlands
(Amsterdam Office)
Atrium 3rd floor
Strawinskylaan 3125
1077 ZX Amsterdam The Netherlands
+31 (0)20 800 2000