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BSP1005 Lecture Notes 10 - Game Theory II - Strategic Thinking in Dynamic Games
BSP1005 Lecture Notes 10 - Game Theory II - Strategic Thinking in Dynamic Games
Lecture Notes 10
GAME THEORY AND STRATEGIC THINKING II:
Game Theory in Dynamic Settings
and
Strategic Moves
By Jo Seung-Gyu
1
Outline
Strategic Moves
Introduction
We now extend our analysis to include dynamic features of the strategic
decision.
Example:
You are one of a few global chipmakers competing for market shares. You
threaten your rivals:
I am going to double my supply, so youd better reduce yours!
-
Introduction-cont
(1 million, - 100)
(- 100, 1 million)
Outline
Introduction: Sequential Games
Equilibrium Concepts
Backward Induction/Subgame
Perfection
Centipede Game
21 flags from Survivor?
Strategic Moves
Nash Equilibrium?
Nash equilibrium concept is still valid in extensive form games.
However, in many instances, Nash equilibrium is not unique.
If we are trying to predict as accurately as possible how the
players will behave, we will need a new equilibrium selection
mechanism for the most reasonable one among the multiple Nash
equilibriums.
(You had better see the game in a strategic form always to solve for Nash
equilibrium):
(- , - )
Explode
HIJACKER
Explode
Give In
HIJACKER
Schiphol
Schiphol
Give In
(100, - 50 )
( -100, 10 m)
( -100, 10 m)
PILOT
PILOT
Cuba
(- , - )
(100, - 50)
Cuba
(- 100, 10 million)
In conclusion, (Schiphol, Give in) makes more sense than (Cuba, Explode).
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(- , - )
Explode
HIJACKER
Schiphol
Give In
PILOT
Cuba
(100, - 50)
(- 100, 10 million)
Outline
Introduction: Sequential Games
Equilibrium Concepts
Centipede Game
Strategic Moves
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R
(8,6)
(2, 0)
(1, 3)
D
(4, 2)
D
(3, 5)
D
(6, 4)
D
(5, 7)
= As moves
= Bs moves
Payoffs: (As, Bs)
How would you play the game if you were A? How about B?
11
Reputation-building incentive?
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Outline
Introduction: Sequential Games
Equilibrium Concepts
Strategic Moves
Credibility and Importance of
Commitment
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STRATEGIC MOVES
Credibility and Importance of Commitment
You often want to influence threat or promise your competitors choice in a
manner favorable to yourself.
But talk is cheap! Just telling that you are going to act in this or that way
wont work if your threat or promise is non-credible (i.e. empty).
A strategic move refers to an action in game theory that influences other players
expectations about how you will behave.
It involves a commitment from the player and the commitment has to be
credible, meaning that once employed it must be in the interest of the
player to follow through with the move.
Such concept was first introduced by Thomas Schelling, one of the two Nobel
Prize laureates in Economics in 2005.
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Jo Brothers
Enter
Wal-Mart
Dont enter
Enter
Dont enter
10 , 10
20, 0
0, 20
0, 0
This game has two Nash equilibria: (0, 20) and (20, 0)
The trick, therefore, is to preempt - to set up stores in other small towns quickly, before
Company Jo Brothers can do so: (20,0) is the only Subgame Perfect Nash equilibrium.
That is exactly what Wal-Mart did. By 1986, it had 1009 stores in operation and was
earning an annual profit of $450 million. And while other discount chains were going
under, Wal-Mart continued to grow. By 1999, Wal-Mart had become the worlds largest
retailer, with 2454 stores in the United States and another 729 stores in the rest of the
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world, and had annual sales of $138 billion.
Outline
Introduction: Sequential Games
Equilibrium Concepts
Strategic Moves
Credibility and Importance of
Commitment
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A simple rule governs the challenge: the first to jump out of his automobile
is the chicken and, by universally accepted social convention, concedes
the object in dispute. The second to jump is victorious, and, depending on
context, becomes the winner (gang leader or prom king etc).
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Not only boys play the game. Check out the girls real story below. In their
case, even the winners lose. (Winners Curse)
Teens Run Over During Game of 'Chicken' (The Lufkin Daily News,
October 12, 2005)
HUDSON, Texas Two Hudson girls, age 13 and 14, were attending a
slumber party Friday night at a house along state Highway 103 west of
Hudson when they decided to lie in the road. The two were the first girls
to play the game, lying along the center stripe on the highway 103,
according to another family member, who asked not to be identified.
Just before 9 p.m., a dark-colored SUV with chrome wheels passed,
running over both girls.
The girls remained in Lufkin hospitals Tuesday, one suffering internal
injuries, the other having a broken collarbone and several lost teeth,
Bass said. Updated information on the girls' conditions was not
available. State police are withholding the girls' names because they
are juveniles.
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Recall a scene from West Side Story, in which two gangsters are to
race their cars toward each other and the first one to chicken out loses.
Lets assign numerical payoffs as below:
Gang B
Straight
Swerve
Straight
(-100, -100)
(10, -2)
Swerve
(-2, 10)
(0,0)
Gang A
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Swerve
Straight
(-100, -100)
(10, -2)
Swerve
(-2, 10)
(0,0)
Gang A
Gang B
Straight
Swerve
Straight
(-100, -100)
(10, - 2)
Swerve
(- 2, 10)
(0,0)
Gang A
23
(-100, -100)
(10, - 2)
Swerve
(- 2, 10)
(0,0)
Gang A
Gang B
Straight
Swerve
Straight
(-100, -100)
(10, -2)
Swerve
(-101, 10)
(0,0)
Gang A
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(-100, -100)
(10, - 2)
Swerve
(- 2, 10)
(0,0)
Gang A
Gang B
Straight
Swerve
Straight
(-1, -100)
Swerve
(- 2, 10)
(10, - 2)
Gang A
(0,0)
25
(-100, -100)
(10, - 2)
Swerve
(- 2, 10)
(0,0)
Gang A
Gang B
Straight
Swerve
Gang A
Straight
( -100 -100)
(10, - 2)
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Far Out
Engines
Small cars
Big Cars
Small engines
3, 6
3, 0
Big engines
1, 1
8, 3
Two Nash equilibriums if simultaneous game: (Small, Small) and (Big, Big).
If Race Car moves first: (Small, Small).
What can Far Out do then?
o threat to produce Big Engines but it is non-credible
o Thus, need to make its threats credible.
Example: destroying (shutting down) small engine production capacity
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Outline
Introduction: Sequential Games
Equilibrium Concepts
Strategic Moves
Credibility and Importance of Commitment
Brinkmanship as a Commitment
Extra Capacity as an Entry Deterrence
Strategic Trade Policy in Airwar between Airbus and
Boeing
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Brinkmanship as a Commitment
Brinkmanship is the maneuver of pushing a situation to the verge of disaster
brink, as the term reads in order to achieve the most advantageous outcome.
This might be achieved by creating the impression in rivals mind that one is
willing to use extreme methods rather than concede, thereby forcing the rival to
back down and make concessions
Examples:
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Outline
Introduction: Sequential Games
Equilibrium Concepts
Strategic Moves
Credibility and Importance of Commitment
Chicken Game and Strategic Moves
Brinkmanship as a Commitment
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Incumbent
Enter
Stay out
100, 20
200, 0
70, 10
130, 0
But if the incumbent follows its dominant strategy, then entrant will enter (because 20 >
0) with the outcome of (100, 200). But incumbent wants to (200, 0).
A simple threat of I will charge low if you enter will not work. It is an empty threat.
Incumbent
Enter
Stay out
100, 20
200, 0
70, 10
130, 0
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This will lower the profit in the High Price situation since at high price the sales
is low and the new capacity investment is just waste of money.
But at the Low Price choice, the extra capacity becomes useful giving you a
marginal cost advantage over the entrant and helps to shift profits away from
the entrant. You can increase your profits while Entrants may lose more.
Potential Entrant
Enter
Stay Out
High Price
(Accommodation)
(10050=)50, 20
(20050=)150, 0
Low Price
(Warfare)
(7050+60=)80, 20 (13050+50=)130, 0
Incumbent
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Outline
Introduction: Sequential Games
Equilibrium Concepts
Strategic Moves
37
Background:
Produce
-10, -10
Dont Produce
0, 100
100, 0
Boeing
0, 0
Airbus
Produce Dont Produce
-10, 10
100, 0
0, 120
0, 0
Boeing
Dont Produce
It shows how strategic trade policy can transfer profits from foreign country
to home.
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10, 10
Dont Produce
0, 120
120, 0
Boeing
0, 0
Real feature?
The United States initiated WTO dispute procedures then about subsidies to the
European aircraft industry. In response, the EU launched similar proceedings
against the US criticizing NASAs subtle procurement practice etc.
New 3-4 new players are expected in the next decade (such as Commercial
Aircraft Corporation of China Ltd), and the game is to be more complicated.
(For a recent update:
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,6140280,00.html)
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Outline
Introduction: Sequential Games
Equilibrium Concepts
Strategic Moves
Credibility and Importance of
Commitment
Chicken Game and Strategic Moves
Brinkmanship as a Commitment
Extra Capacity as an Entry Deterrence
Strategic Trade Policy in Airwar between
Airbus and Boeing
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Firm 1
Low price
High price
Low price
10, 10
100, 50
High price
50, 100
50, 50
What if the firms are interacting more than once? We call this a repeated
game.
- If games are to be played many times, cooperative behavior may be
fostered even if firms are competing in a non-cooperative way, leading
to the cooperative outcome of (50, 50).
- The result is knows as Folk Theorems.
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Folk Theorem
A cooperative outcome can be sustained as a subgame perfect Nash
equilibrium of a repeated game usually infinitely repeated. (Such result may
hold for a finitely repeated game as well, if rarely.)
(It has got its name of folk theorem because the result is fairly obvious common
sense. Formal statements and proofs can be quite complex, but the intuition is clear
and obvious; cooperation of a given sort is to help together by a threat to punish
those who transgress. As long as the future looms large relative to the present time,
such threatened punishments are effective. Because this result is something that
game theorists feel they knew all along, it is part of the folk wisdom of the subject.
No one was brash enough to claim authorship of the general idea.)
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The best way to learn how to use game theory as a management tool is to
practice. Here is a seven step guide to using game theory in settings.
STEP 1: Calculate your profit as a function of what the other player(s) might do
You = f(Others Actions)
STEP 2: From your best guesses about your competitors demand and cost
curves, calculate her profits as a function of what you might do
Opponent = g(Your Actions)
STEP 3: Ask the question: Can we legally cooperate? Ask your lawyers; can we
write a legally binding agreement to any deals we might do? If the answer is
yes, then you want to make use of cooperative game theory. That is the theory
of bargaining and negotiationsthat is trying to write mutually advantageous
contracts. If the answer is no, then you want to make use of non-cooperative
game theory. That is, the stuff we have been discussing in the last few game
theory lectures.
STEP 4: Create the games payoffs in a form that helps you to understand the
strategic interactions.(Normal form or Extensive form)
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