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UK - Monthly Series (Experimental) of Gross Value Added Economic Sectors
UK - Monthly Series (Experimental) of Gross Value Added Economic Sectors
by Eduardo Petazze
Last updated: April 21, 2015
For 1Q2015 a fall of Gross Value Added of 1.16% (4.57% annualized) compared to 4Q2014, based on the most likely evolution of monthly indicators of the British Office of National Statistics is projected.
By 2015 these indicators showed a very modest projected growth rate of 1.07%, compared with growth of 3% in 2014.
The UK National Statistics Office (ONS) publishes, on a monthly basis, the Index of Production Industries, the Output in the Construction Industry and the Index of Services, all of which, directly or
indirectly, are based and used for calculation of GDP.
In this paper valued on a seasonally adjusted basis and at constant currency, the above indicators, and more adding other estimates, the monthly GDP is reconstructed under the production approach.
Monthly Data
A
Residual
Total
Jan-14
717 2,325 12,079 1,204
9,024 1,967 2,477
540
0 124,500
Feb-14
716 2,482 12,198 1,142
9,033 1,967 2,500
530
0 124,828
Mar-14
716 2,465 12,254 1,145
9,041 1,976 2,535
509
1 125,457
Apr-14
715 2,417 12,331 1,143
9,041 1,987 2,573
515
0 125,842
May-14
715 2,483 12,156 1,177
9,066 1,989 2,625
521
0 126,069
Jun-14
714 2,378 12,242 1,203
9,109 1,983 2,599
532
-1 126,327
Jul-14
716 2,393 12,258 1,221
9,108 2,003 2,640
532
0 126,964
Aug-14
718 2,344 12,260 1,226
9,134 1,981 2,640
529
0 126,644
Sep-14
721 2,422 12,330 1,175
9,134 1,963 2,643
527
0 127,435
Oct-14
724 2,430 12,221 1,176
9,164 1,962 2,659
526
0 127,448
Nov-14
728 2,359 12,318 1,163
9,164 1,941 2,611
537
0 127,410
Dec-14
732 2,326 12,330 1,181
9,190 2,005 2,662
540
0 128,065
Jan-15
732 2,760 12,103 1,272
8,969 1,862 2,456
575
0 125,890
Feb-15
732 2,687 12,150 1,287
8,969 1,883 2,491
572
0 125,966
Mar-15
732 2,763 12,109 1,252
8,974 1,899 2,532
559
0 126,618
Apr-15
732 2,778 12,133 1,231
8,981 1,906 2,566
556
0 127,139
May-15
731 2,825 12,059 1,238
8,996 1,909 2,607
558
0 127,495
Jun-15
731 2,787 12,064 1,255
9,024 1,907 2,615
564
0 127,780
Latest data
Own estimate
Provisional estimate Provisional estimate based on the Turnover Services data
overall estimate
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K~N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
Residual
Total
Growth rate compared to the same month last year (YoY)
Jan-14
0.70% -2.19%
2.10% -3.99% 8.93% 10.24%
6.20% 2.85% 2.67% -0.19%
2.97% -1.87%
0.38%
1.53% 10.01% 2.44% 3.45%
2.87%
Feb-14
2.87% 5.48%
3.36% -10.92% 5.15% 5.20%
4.65% 1.38% 0.17% -1.80%
3.35% -2.09%
0.57%
1.53% 7.90% 2.54% -2.93%
2.42%
Mar-14
5.29% 9.90%
2.60% -15.37% 7.01% 8.22%
6.41% 2.58% 1.61% -1.16%
3.92% -2.19%
0.19%
1.62% 7.45% 4.49% -7.62%
3.07%
Apr-14
3.47% 3.91%
4.19% -13.28% 3.90% 7.98%
5.39% 4.06% 2.31% -0.51%
3.79% -2.25%
0.41%
1.29% 5.47% 7.07% -3.20%
3.09%
May-14 1.71% 4.15%
2.31% -6.81% 1.58% 5.60%
4.74% 4.89% 1.42% 0.39%
4.07% -2.46%
0.71%
1.76% 5.07% 9.24% 7.87%
3.03%
Jun-14 -0.14% -1.94%
1.80% -1.15% -1.19% 7.77%
4.61% 5.18% 1.38% 1.96%
4.06% -2.76%
0.81%
2.64% 4.37% 8.52% 9.24%
3.13%
Jul-14
0.70% -1.60%
2.43% 2.43% -3.30% 7.27%
4.21% 5.41% 1.26% 1.83%
4.62% -3.23%
0.66%
1.88% 5.31% 11.39% 7.91%
3.30%
Aug-14
1.41% -4.09%
3.03% 4.25% -4.50% 3.15%
4.47% 6.82% 0.88% 1.42%
3.46% -3.13%
0.47%
1.87% 4.43% 11.16% 5.59%
2.71%
Sep-14
2.41% -3.08%
2.19% -2.97% -1.60% 6.68%
3.84% 7.13% 5.61% 1.54%
4.30% -2.74%
0.47%
1.40% 2.08% 10.96% -0.75%
3.10%
Oct-14
2.26% -0.82%
1.49% -1.67% -1.71% 1.80%
4.74% 7.13% 5.15% 3.85%
3.83% -2.77%
0.53%
1.82% 0.31% 8.93% -2.59%
2.85%
Nov-14
2.10% -0.92%
2.56% -7.63% -1.31% 4.41%
4.73% 5.97% 3.38% 2.60%
3.82% -2.57%
0.34%
1.72% 1.41% 8.21% -2.19%
2.87%
Dec-14
2.09% -4.98%
2.04% -0.42% -3.30% 4.27%
4.99% 8.45% 4.74% 1.68%
4.47% -2.56%
0.15%
1.82% 3.72% 10.92% -0.55%
3.19%
Jan-15
2.09% 18.71%
0.20% 5.65% -9.15% -1.41%
3.63% 4.44% 1.86% 1.17%
0.68% 2.67%
-1.31%
-0.61% -5.34% -0.85% 6.48%
1.12%
Feb-15
2.23% 8.26%
-0.39% 12.70% -8.17% 0.26%
2.54% 0.86% 1.62% 3.70%
0.61% 2.63%
-1.50%
-0.71% -4.27% -0.36% 7.92%
0.91%
Mar-15
2.23% 12.09%
-1.18% 9.34% -5.07% 1.41%
2.41% 1.78% 1.36% 2.65%
0.51% 2.54%
-1.34%
-0.74% -3.90% -0.12% 9.82%
0.93%
Apr-15
2.38% 14.94%
-1.61% 7.70% -5.03% 2.21%
3.10% 2.83% 1.52% 1.18%
0.61% 2.56%
-1.34%
-0.66% -4.08% -0.27% 7.96%
1.03%
May-15 2.24% 13.77%
-0.80% 5.18% -5.31% 3.75%
3.22% 2.66% 1.26% 1.16%
0.55% 2.60%
-1.25%
-0.77% -4.02% -0.69% 7.10%
1.13%
Jun-15
2.38% 17.20%
-1.45% 4.32% -5.39% 3.15%
3.15% 2.92% 2.24% 1.11%
0.65% 2.61%
-1.31%
-0.93% -3.83% 0.62% 6.02%
1.15%
Latest data
Own estimate
Provisional estimate Provisional estimate based on the Turnover Services data
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K~N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
Residual
Total
Growth rate compared to the previous month (MoM)
Jan-14
0.00% -5.02%
-0.04% 1.52% 0.76% 4.05%
0.10% 2.26% 0.49% -0.91%
0.10% -0.52%
0.09%
-0.02% 1.76% 3.21% -0.55%
0.31%
Feb-14 -0.14%
6.75%
0.99% -5.15% 0.34% -2.51%
0.84% -0.21% 0.63% -0.82%
0.56% -0.32%
0.09%
0.10% 0.00% 0.93% -1.85%
0.26%
Mar-14
0.00% -0.68%
0.46% 0.26% -3.40% 2.10%
1.14% 1.38% 0.43% -0.59%
0.65% -0.21%
0.00%
0.09% 0.46% 1.40% -3.96%
0.50%
Apr-14 -0.14% -1.95%
0.63% -0.17% -0.49% 1.56%
-0.25%
0.21% 0.17% 1.48%
0.27% -0.26%
0.12%
0.00% 0.56% 1.50% 1.18%
0.31%
May-14 0.00% 2.73%
-1.42% 2.97% 0.07% -1.16%
0.18% 1.43% 0.90% 0.17%
0.46% -0.32%
-0.09%
0.28% 0.10% 2.02% 1.17%
0.18%
Jun-14 -0.14% -4.23%
0.71% 2.21% -0.14% 1.16%
0.42% 0.64% -1.12% 0.36%
0.18% -0.31%
0.09%
0.47% -0.30% -0.99% 2.11%
0.20%
Jul-14
0.28% 0.63%
0.13% 1.50% -0.21% 2.23%
-0.01%
0.71% 0.40% 0.24%
0.73% -0.28%
0.14%
-0.01% 1.01% 1.58% 0.00%
0.50%
Aug-14
0.28% -2.05%
0.02% 0.41% -0.57% -2.40%
0.46% 0.24% 0.39% 0.15%
-0.45% 0.00%
-0.09%
0.29% -1.10% 0.00% -0.56%
-0.25%
Sep-14
0.42% 3.33%
0.57% -4.16% 1.07% 1.91%
0.32% 0.13% 1.46% 0.55%
1.01% 0.00%
-0.09%
0.00% -0.91% 0.11% -0.38%
0.62%
Oct-14
0.42% 0.33%
-0.88% 0.09% 1.41% -1.17%
0.10% 0.61% -0.06% 0.80%
0.09% -0.28%
0.08%
0.33% -0.05% 0.61% -0.19%
0.01%
Nov-14
0.55% -2.92%
0.79% -1.11% -0.07% -1.89%
0.94% -0.63% 0.03% -0.20%
0.18% 0.00%
-0.19%
0.00% -1.07% -1.81% 2.09%
-0.03%
Dec-14
0.55% -1.40%
0.10% 1.55% -2.02% 0.57%
0.65% 1.39% 0.94% 0.48%
0.63% -0.10%
0.00%
0.28% 3.30% 1.95% 0.56%
0.51%
Jan-15
0.00% 18.66%
-1.84% 7.71% -5.34% -1.62%
-1.19% -1.52% -2.28% -1.41%
-3.54% 4.81%
-1.37%
-2.40% -7.13% -7.74% 6.48%
-1.70%
Feb-15
0.00% -2.64%
0.39% 1.18% 1.43% -0.86%
-0.22% -3.64% 0.39% 1.66%
0.49% -0.36%
-0.10%
0.00% 1.13% 1.43% -0.52%
0.06%
Mar-15
0.00% 2.83%
-0.34% -2.72% -0.15% 3.27%
1.00% 2.31% 0.17% -1.60%
0.56% -0.30%
0.16%
0.06% 0.85% 1.65% -2.27%
0.52%
Apr-15
0.00% 0.54%
0.20% -1.68% -0.45% 2.35%
0.42% 1.24% 0.33% 0.03%
0.36% -0.24%
0.12%
0.08% 0.37% 1.34% -0.54%
0.41%
May-15 -0.14%
1.69%
-0.61% 0.57% -0.22% 0.33%
0.30% 1.27% 0.64% 0.15%
0.40% -0.28%
0.00%
0.17% 0.16% 1.60% 0.36%
0.28%
Jun-15
0.00% -1.35%
0.04% 1.37% -0.22% 0.58%
0.35% 0.90% -0.17% 0.30%
0.28% -0.30%
0.04%
0.31% -0.10% 0.31% 1.08%
0.22%
Latest data
Own estimate
Provisional estimate Provisional estimate based on the Turnover Services data
Names of the sections that make up the GVA:
A - AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND FISHING; B - MINING AND QUARRYING; C - MANUFACTURING; D - ELECTRICITY, GAS, STEAM AND AIR CONDITIONING SUPPLY; E WATER SUPPLY; SEWERAGE, WASTE MANAGEMENT AND REMEDIATION; F - CONSTRUCTION ; G - WHOLESALE, RETAIL TRADE, REPAIR OF MOTOR VEHICLES AND
MOTORCYCLES; H - TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE; I - ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD SERVICE ACTIVITIES; J - INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION; K ~ N FINANCIAL, REAL ESTATE, PROFESSIONAL, ADMINISTRATIVE AND SUPPORT SERVICE ; O - PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND DEFENCE; COMPULSORY SOCIAL SECURITY; P EDUCATION; Q - HUMAN HEALTH AND SOCIAL WORK ACTIVITIES; R - ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT AND RECREATION; S - OTHER SERVICE; T - ACTIVITIES OF HH AS
EMPLOYERS .
Note: Fittingly, the current basis of projections (2011) will be replaced by the year 2012.
Quarterly data
A
2012Q1 2,232
2012Q2 2,190
2012Q3 2,187
2012Q4 2,186
2013Q1 2,088
2013Q2 2,109
2013Q3 2,123
2013Q4 2,138
2014Q1 2,149
2014Q2 2,144
2014Q3 2,155
2014Q4 2,184
2015Q1 2,196
2015Q2 2,194
2015Q3 2,202
2015Q4 2,226
Latest data
Own estimate
A
B
7,726
7,455
7,456
6,858
6,973
7,135
7,375
7,279
7,272
7,278
7,159
7,115
8,210
8,390
8,254
8,303
C
36,448
36,023
36,209
35,684
35,576
35,742
35,933
36,135
36,531
36,729
36,848
36,869
36,362
36,256
36,284
36,386
D
3,573
3,818
3,693
3,785
3,889
3,798
3,579
3,641
3,491
3,523
3,622
3,520
3,811
3,724
3,830
3,756
H
I
J
K~N
O
Annualized quarterly growth rate
0.46% 0.21% 5.43% 10.31%
2.43% -0.84%
-0.96% -1.76% 5.31% -6.19%
2.20% 1.18%
7.80% 0.69% 7.00% -0.82%
3.20% -1.33%
0.10% 0.05% -10.62% 2.21%
1.46% -2.41%
7.76% 3.36% -7.61% 9.75%
1.68% -3.86%
7.62% -0.58% 2.68% -2.50%
2.88% -1.46%
5.98% 0.66% -0.57% -0.63%
3.57% -0.13%
2.77% 0.55% -1.71% 0.59%
4.17% -2.83%
6.69% 8.69% 5.65% -1.64%
3.03% -3.74%
4.25% 9.28% 3.61% 4.20%
5.13% -3.23%
3.03% 7.51% 2.81% 3.33%
4.19% -2.33%
5.35% 3.33% 5.64% 5.04%
3.82% -1.23%
-1.08% -9.58% -5.26% -2.40%
-9.94% 18.76%
5.47% 11.20% 3.86% -1.19%
5.15% -3.31%
3.80% 9.02% 2.72% 3.65%
3.30% -1.94%
4.72% 2.72% 5.35% 4.76%
4.47% -0.95%
P
24,888
25,045
25,549
25,426
25,324
25,287
25,334
25,348
25,420
25,450
25,470
25,435
25,068
25,119
25,128
25,033
Q
26,259
26,261
26,372
26,461
26,682
26,710
26,914
27,035
27,098
27,216
27,376
27,518
26,912
27,001
27,215
27,292
R
5,289
5,384
5,810
5,467
5,450
5,677
5,722
5,803
5,910
5,959
5,947
5,908
5,644
5,722
5,645
5,583
S
7,529
7,354
7,397
7,069
7,282
7,201
7,127
7,254
7,512
7,797
7,923
7,932
7,479
7,788
7,895
7,982
T
1,472
1,530
1,592
1,567
1,619
1,502
1,525
1,632
1,579
1,568
1,588
1,603
1,706
1,678
1,699
1,725
Residual
0
0
-1
0
1
-2
1
0
1
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Residual
Total
362,602
361,736
364,453
362,902
364,614
366,921
369,817
371,891
374,785
378,238
381,043
382,923
378,474
382,414
385,023
387,280
Total
Annual data
A
2005
8,832
2006
8,562
2007
8,253
2008
9,120
2009
8,515
2010
8,507
2011
9,224
2012
8,795
2013
8,458
2014
8,632
2015
8,818
Latest data
Own estimate
A
B
51,104
48,159
46,667
44,036
40,046
38,500
33,059
29,495
28,762
28,824
33,157
151,434
154,800
155,864
151,402
137,188
143,639
146,249
144,364
143,386
146,977
145,288
15,398
15,318
15,439
15,735
15,360
15,972
14,979
14,869
14,907
14,156
15,121
16,838
16,562
17,142
17,154
15,767
15,731
16,563
16,407
16,971
17,085
16,055
F
94,832
95,552
97,616
95,060
82,514
89,552
91,517
84,633
85,846
90,996
93,256
H
I
J
Annual growth rate
0.63% 4.97% 3.18%
0.78% 2.47% 6.53%
-1.90% -1.60% 1.92%
-10.05% -5.18% -3.97%
-1.22% 2.72% 6.90%
0.82% 2.90% 2.51%
-0.65% 3.98% 2.79%
0.82% -2.57% 1.73%
5.15% 2.53% 0.96%
2.84% 1.63% 1.51%
K~N
81,891
81,934
80,736
81,933
82,834
82,155
78,846
77,595
76,054
74,114
76,090
102,097
101,060
98,827
98,473
98,038
97,274
98,083
100,908
101,293
101,775
100,348
86,558
89,371
90,749
92,497
95,693
99,380
102,278
105,353
107,341
109,208
108,420
21,922
22,168
22,163
22,726
20,753
20,319
21,015
21,950
22,652
23,724
22,594
27,342
29,624
27,703
28,631
29,426
28,581
30,608
29,349
28,864
31,164
31,144
Residual
Total
Residual
Total
2006
-3.06% -5.76%
2.22% -0.52% -1.64% 0.76%
3.54%
6.18% 0.05%
-1.02%
3.25% 1.12% 8.35% -2.32%
3.04%
2007
-3.61% -3.10%
0.69% 0.79% 3.50% 2.16%
4.15%
5.24% -1.46%
-2.21%
1.54% -0.02% -6.48% -3.41%
2.52%
2008
10.51% -5.64%
-2.86% 1.92% 0.07% -2.62%
-2.74%
1.53% 1.48%
-0.36%
1.93% 2.54% 3.35% 4.06%
-0.09%
2009
-6.63% -9.06%
-9.39% -2.38% -8.09% -13.20%
-5.51%
-2.80% 1.10%
-0.44%
3.46% -8.68% 2.78% -9.06%
-4.48%
2010
-0.09% -3.86%
4.70% 3.98% -0.23% 8.53%
1.31%
1.01% -0.82%
-0.78%
3.85% -2.09% -2.87% 11.80%
2.08%
2011
8.43% -14.13%
1.82% -6.22% 5.29% 2.19%
1.71%
3.13% -4.03%
0.83%
2.92% 3.43% 7.09% -5.28%
1.71%
2012
-4.65% -10.78%
-1.29% -0.73% -0.94% -7.52%
0.89%
3.01% -1.59%
2.88%
3.01% 4.45% -4.11% 4.99%
0.70%
2013
-3.83% -2.49%
-0.68% 0.26% 3.44% 1.43%
5.18%
2.48% -1.99%
0.38%
1.89% 3.20% -1.65% 1.90%
1.48%
2014
2.06% 0.22%
2.50% -5.04% 0.67% 6.00%
4.91%
3.89% -2.55%
0.48%
1.74% 4.73% 7.97% 0.96%
2.97%
2015
2.15% 15.03%
-1.15% 6.82% -6.03% 2.48%
3.14%
0.53% 2.67%
-1.40%
-0.72% -4.76% -0.06% 7.42%
1.07%
Latest data
Own estimate
Names of the sections that make up the GVA:
A - AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND FISHING; B - MINING AND QUARRYING; C - MANUFACTURING; D - ELECTRICITY, GAS, STEAM AND AIR CONDITIONING SUPPLY; E WATER SUPPLY; SEWERAGE, WASTE MANAGEMENT AND REMEDIATION; F - CONSTRUCTION ; G - WHOLESALE, RETAIL TRADE, REPAIR OF MOTOR VEHICLES AND
MOTORCYCLES; H - TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE; I - ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD SERVICE ACTIVITIES; J - INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION; K ~ N FINANCIAL, REAL ESTATE, PROFESSIONAL, ADMINISTRATIVE AND SUPPORT SERVICE; O - PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND DEFENCE; COMPULSORY SOCIAL SECURITY; P EDUCATION; Q - HUMAN HEALTH AND SOCIAL WORK ACTIVITIES; R - ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT AND RECREATION; S - OTHER SERVICE; T - ACTIVITIES OF HH AS
EMPLOYERS .