Column 20-21 February 2015

Growing European concerns about Muslim migrants

Irfan Husain, Dawn/ANN, Islamabad | Opinion | Tue, February 17 2015, 8:51 AM
For the last couple of months, weekly anti-Muslim demonstrations have been taking place in
several German cities. Led by Pegida, the acronym for its German name of Patriotic
Europeans Against the Islamisation of Europe, the protests began in Dresden and have
spread to other cities.
These marches have attracted counter-protests that often outnumber the anti-Muslim
demonstrators. Oddly, only 0.5 per cent of Dresdens population is Muslim. And although a
demo in Leipzig drew 25,000 marchers, the numbers have fallen since. One reason is that
the leader of the movement, Lutz Bachmann, was revealed to be a closet neo-Nazi when a
photograph of him with a Hitler moustache and haircut surfaced.
Even though many German Muslims are of Turkish origin who mostly speak German and are
fairly well integrated, it is the new wave of asylum seekers from Syria who have caused
alarm.
And while Europeans as a whole tend to be uncomfortable about the presence of Muslims
living in their midst, they forget that countries like Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and Pakistan are
hosts to far larger numbers of refugees. In fact, one in four of those living in Lebanon today
is a Syrian refugee.
Although these protests show signs of dying down, disquiet over the rising Muslim presence
in Europe is growing. A few days ago, almost all British newspapers carried front-page stories
to inform readers that the Muslim population in England and Wales had nearly doubled in ten
years, rising from 1.55 million in 2001 to 2.71 million in 2011.
But more than its size, it is the composition of the population that is causing concern in
Britain: 1 in 3 Muslims is under 15 years of age, compared with 1 in 5 overall; and 4 per cent
of Muslims are over 65 compared with 16 per cent overall. These numbers translate into a
relatively young cohort, many of whom will be reaching reproductive age soon. Given the
generally larger size of Muslim families, many fear that the numbers will keep rising at a
higher rate than the general population.
Although only one Briton in 20 is Muslim, the public perception is that the numbers are four
times this figure. One reason for this skewed estimate is that the Muslims are a very visible
minority who tend to congregate in urban areas. An increasing number of Muslim girls and
women have taken to covering themselves either in headscarves or in full burqas or niqabs,
while the men often sport long, easily identifiable beards.
And while other migrants generally dress like locals and blend in, Muslims tend to stay apart,
with religious and cultural factors perpetuating this divide. Every few weeks, incidents to do
with the sexual exploitation of young white girls, alleged terror plots, or the willingness of
many young Muslims to join the Islamic State enhances the negative image many Brits have
of Muslims and Islam.
If growing numbers of Britons, with all their tolerance, can feel this hostility, then things are
far worse in much of Europe. In France, the recent Charlie Hebdo killings have boosted the
right-wing, Islamophobic Front Nationals poll ratings. As it is, widespread dissatisfaction with
immigration policies has made the party a force to reckon with.
From Sweden to Netherland, anti-Muslim sentiments are rising, fed by images of horrors
committed by organisations like Boko Haram, the Islamic State and the Taliban. Hardly have
the images of one atrocity faded that another is headline news. This steady barrage of horror
stories, combined with the perception that Muslims in Europe constitute a fifth column prone
to join extremists groups and attack the host communities, has hardened attitudes. Now,
even liberal politicians need to toughen their stance on immigration to address widely held
public concerns.
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One result of growing prejudice is to make it harder for young Muslims to get jobs. In France,
Muslim unemployment goes up to over 40 per cent in some areas. In Britain, only 20 per
cent are in full time employment, compared with 35 per cent overall. But then 18 per cent of
Muslim women are at home, while only 6 per cent of British women fall in the category of
full-time housewives. And while 24 per cent of all Muslims are educated to degree level, the
figure is 44 per cent for Hindus.
Housing is another issue that divides the communities. Relatively few Muslims live in homes
they own, with the majority in assisted housing. Some council estates are breeding grounds
for crime, with gangs fighting each other in vicious turf wars. Racism is rife, and bullying
common. In these conditions, many Muslim kids band together for protection; some of them
are then radicalised in local mosques or online.
In countries across Europe, the link between poverty, unemployment, overcrowded ghettos
and Islamic radicalism has been well established. But there are no easy answers. The reality
is that nobody planned this influx or encouraged it. But laws regarding the right to asylum,
and to bring in spouses, have opened the door to growing numbers of legal immigrants. And
then of course there are illegal ways that involve people smugglers and dangerous routes.
In a 2013 poll conducted by the British Social Attitudes, 62 per cent of those surveyed said
they were worried that an increasing Muslim population would weaken Britains national
identity. In 2003, 48 per cent voiced a similar concern. And an online survey conducted by
The Daily Telegraph suggests that 88 per cent of its readers are worried by the presence of
large numbers of Muslims. However, the Telegraph is a right-wing newspaper, so many of its
readers would tend to be anti-immigration.
Muslims in Europe are thus caught between a rock and a hard place. Their faith and their
culture sets them apart from the host community. This isolates them and erects walls at a
time when they should be building bridges. (***)

Redefining ASEAN financial integration

Wahyoe Soedarmono, Jakarta | Opinion | Mon, February 16 2015, 6:56 AM
It is widely perceived that the 2010 eurozone crisis has somehow outweighed the benefits of
financial integration, since coordination between member countries was arguably poor. For
instance, France seemed reluctant to cut its budget deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic
product (GDP).
Although Germany was ready to slash its budget deficit, it required France to do so
beforehand. If France was frustrated by German austerity, Germany was also frustrated by
French reluctance to reform.
Such issues were not surprising. Since each country has its own priorities, fiscal
management tends to differ from one country to another. Unfortunately, the EU member
countries no longer have independent monetary policies to align with different fiscal policies.
Instead, no effective fiscal coordination has been in place, whereas in times of crisis, some
solvent countries are required to assist other insolvent countries.
Even if fiscal coordination mechanism exists, there are at least two important drawbacks.
First, most member countries are not willing to be intervened in beyond fiscal deficit rules.
This also means that they cannot sacrifice sovereignty over their own budget management
to solve other countries defaults.
Second, although each member country generously helps fellow member countries, moral
hazard also lurks behind the fact that each member country believes that it will be helped by
others in case of default.
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Consequently, countries will manage fiscal policies imprudently without worrying too much
about macroeconomic risks and fiscal crisis. Greece, Italy and Spain have provided evidence
on the occurrence of moral hazard, including from excessive borrowing to finance
unproductive spending.
In the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) context, what lessons can be learned about
financial integration?
Essentially, several initiatives enacted in the AEC blueprint are still in the first phase of
integration, which is a liberalization phase. It comprises: financial services liberalization,
capital account liberalization, capital market liberalization and harmonization in payment and
settlement system.
The second phase of integration is the creation of a single market for financial products,
while the third phase is to establish a monetary union.
While the first phase is achievable with great commitment from ASEAN leaders, challenges to
the second phase remain substantial with regard to the financial deepening sector gap and,
to a lesser extent, the financial sector efficiency gap.
The former is important to ensure that the real sector across ASEAN receives sufficient
financing from the banking sector as the dominant financial sector, to remain productive to
compete together with other countries outside the region, such as China, which has started
to penetrate Africa and Latin America.
The Global Financial Development Database (GFDD) reported that the financial deepening
gap was still substantially large at least in ASEAN-5. If the credit-to-GDP ratio in Malaysia
reaches approximately 120 percent, Indonesia still lags behind with the credit-to-GDP ratio of
20 percent on average.
The latter is also important to influence how pricing of financial products in one country can
be accepted in other countries.
Narrowing efficiency gap will also enable the banking sector in one country to penetrate
other countries in the region and hence, the ultimate goal of narrowing financial deepening
gap can be achieved.
Interestingly, the GFDD for ASEAN-5 shows that the gap in the cost-to-income ratio as bank
efficiency indicator is already narrow at approximately 40-60 percent across ASEAN-5
members. Although this gap continues to converge, regulatory harmonization should
continue to cut the efficiency gap in the broader context of ASEAN.
Once financial deepening and efficiency gaps have been dealt with, the second phase of
financial integration will likely run smoothly. The ultimate challenge will be how to achieve
the third phase of financial integration, which is a monetary union with or without a single
currency.
As part of the monetary unification processes, the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization
(CMIM) is indeed a good example of mechanisms to deal with short-term liquidity problems
associated with foreign reserves needs in ASEAN.
Extending the scope of CMIM to cope with short-term liquidity shortages in the banking
sector is worth considering, so that a cross-border banking crisis can be avoided.
Yet, financial deepening by the banking sector plays a critical role in enabling the second
phase of integration to run smoothly.
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Likewise, ASEAN should not follow in the footstep of the EU. The impossible trinity suggests
that a country cannot exercise three strategies simultaneously: free capital movements,
independent monetary policies and stable exchange rates. Only two of them will work.
Since ASEAN countries still need a large amount of capital to boost real sector development
and competitiveness, undertaking strategies to limit capital movement is clearly not an
option.
Giving up on the strategies of exercising independent monetary policy is also not an option,
because it will require strengthening of fiscal coordination.
The EU experience has shown how difficult it is to make fiscal policy coherent across
countries, particularly in times of crisis.
Eventually, ASEAN can give up on the establishment of a single currency, although achieving
a monetary union remains feasible in ASEAN without single currency. There is no need to
have a single currency to make uniform exchange rates between ASEAN member currencies
and other currencies outside the region.
Although stable exchange rates are indeed necessary for each country to achieve its own
objective, enabling each country to exercise its own monetary policies independently is more
than sufficient to deal with exchange-rate fluctuation.
_______________
The writer, who holds a PhD in money, finance and banking from the Universite de Limoges,
France, is a lecturer at the school of business, Sampoerna University, Jakarta. The views
expressed are his own.

Jokowis budget
The Jakarta Post | Editorial | Wed, February 18 2015, 7:19 AM
The amendments to the 2015 state budget that were approved by the House of
Representatives last week slightly decrease total government spending this year to Rp 1.9
quadrillion (US$ 148.2 billion) but in the long-term will be good for the economy because
public investment for basic infrastructure, bureaucratic reform and spending on social
benefits will almost double from last year.
The more than 50 percent increase in capital expenditure will be made possible by the big
savings on fuel subsidies brought about by declining oil prices and the introduction of a
fixed-subsidy system for fuels widely used by low-income people and fishermen.
Judging from the function of the state budget as a communication system, conveying signals
about government behavior, prices, priorities and commitments, the macroeconomic
indicators assumed for revenue and expenditure projections for the budget seem rather
realistic, assuring the market that there will not likely be painful surprises during the current
fiscal year.
The Rp 12,500 average rupiah exchange rate, $60/barrel oil price and interest rate of 6.2
percent assumed for the budget are realistic.
The amendments to the 2015 budget were necessary not only because of the significant
changes used for the macroeconomic assumptions. The changes also are needed to fit in
with the top priority programs of the new government of Joko Jokowi Widodo.
Jokowis economic platform focuses on food, energy and infrastructure, which are truly the
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basic needs for the nation to strengthen its economic resilience and competitiveness. Food
and energy security is key to a nations political and economic stability. Therefore, the Jokowi
programs to open 1 million hectares of new rice fields outside Java and build new irrigation
networks for 3 million ha of rice fields, seaports, airports and roads are quite appropriate.
If were really serious about the long-run performance of the economy, we need to abandon
the quest for short-term fixes and radical solutions. The mass media may hunger for novelty
and drama. But when it comes to global uncertainty, stability and security seem the safest
route right now.
Investing in infrastructure will make transportation and communication more efficient,
improving connectivty within the country and with the outside world. If we want to talk about
mid- and long-term growth, we have to talk about policies that are familiar.
The biggest challenge for the government is to speed up the execution of its investment
budget, notoriously always short of the target.
But the good news is that the bulk of the almost Rp 40 trillion in budget appropriation for
additional equity capital injection for state companies will go to firms engaged in the
development and operations of basic infrastructure, such as general contractors, seaports,
airports, public housing and railway lines. These state companies will be able to increase
their borrowing capacity for financing infrastructure projects by leveraging fresh capital.

Abbotts own tsunami

The Jakarta Post | Editorial | Sat, February 21 2015, 7:30 AM
Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott humiliated himself on Wednesday when he described
Indonesia as ungrateful for refusing to drop its decision to execute two Australian drug
traffickers despite Australias A$1 billion worth of aid that was given to Aceh when it was hit
by a tsunami in 2004.
The PM had embarrassed himself because his offensive remark was initially only responded
to by the Foreign Ministrys spokesman Armanatha Nasir. It was ridiculous to compare
Australias assistance to help hundreds of thousands of victims of a natural disaster in Aceh
and Nias with his efforts to save the lives of two Australian drug traffickers.
As reported by Reuters, Abbott urged Indonesia to remember the tsunami, saying Australia
would feel grievously let down if the executions proceeded despite the financial assistance
it offered after the disaster. Although he tried to play down his own remark, the damage has
been done. And any damage control from the prime minister will mean almost nothing.
Threats are not part of diplomatic language and no one responds well to threats,
Armanatha said in response to Abbotts warning.
Indonesians will never forget Australias generous help for the people in Aceh and Nias, and
we wish that we could have the opportunity to show the same generosity to Australia. We
will always remember with deep gratitude the four Australian military personnel who lost
their lives during a rescue operation in the two tsunami-devastated areas.
From the perspective of Australian domestic politics, Abbotts strong threat is
understandable. Abbott wanted to impress his own people that he was a strong leader ready
to do anything to protect Australian citizens, especially as his position as his partys boss is
in great danger. Although he could foil the party coup attempt, the recent attempt by his own
party compatriot to unseat him was very alarming for Abbott.
The death penalty is controversial everywhere. Any state, including Indonesia, has the
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obligation to protect and to save the lives of their citizens who are facing troubles abroad,
including those on death row. But in the end, every country should also respect the laws of
other countries.
The PMs remark, however, will not change our respect for the government and the people of
Australia who greatly contributed to the rescue and rebuilding of Aceh and Nias.

Editorial: Badrodin for Chief Is No Better Than Budi

By Jakarta Globe on 11:51 pm Feb 19, 2015
If Megawati Soekarnoputri can claim credit for establishing Indonesias Corruption
Eradication Commission, or KPK, then its her hand-picked president, Joko Widodo, who could
very well be overseeing its demise.
Joko on Wednesday suspended two of the KPKs commissioners, including chairman Abraham
Samad, after the latter was formally named a suspect by the police in a document forgery
case that is clearly trumped up. Tellingly, Joko never moved to suspend Budi Gunawan, the
would-be police chief, after he was named a graft suspect by the KPK last month, in a move
that prompted a torrent of transparently retaliatory criminal charges by the police against
the KPK commissioners.
Joko has, though, finally decided to scrap his nomination of Budi for police chief, putting
forward instead the current deputy chief, Badrodin Haiti. This, of course, only constitutes a
step forward on a purely Lilliputian scale Badrodin was among the police generals
identified by the governments anti-money-laundering watchdog for having suspiciously
large amounts of money flowing through their bank accounts, a fat account tag he shares
with Budi.
Lets put that into perspective: Joko swapped out one shady police general for another, while
suspending half of the KPKs leadership.
That it took him more than a month to effectively do nothing except allow the KPK to be
further undermined is deplorable. His predecessor, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, often
criticized for being indecisive, took to Twitter on Sunday to plead for divine aid to guide our
leaders to prioritize the interests of the country, and not their own.
Allowing the most respected and most effective law enforcement agency in the nation be
torn apart by what is arguably the most corrupt is decidedly not in the interests of the
Indonesian public.

The importance of being the crazy wheel on the supermarket

cart
Nury Vittachi, Bangkok | Opinion | Sun, February 15 2015, 8:20 AM
Opinion News

Realpolitik and Indonesias imminent planned execution of Australian prisoners

Inclusion in and through education: Language counts

Jakartas floods and the changing climate

Have you noticed that many supermarket shopping carts have one crazy wheel, and all the
other wheels slavishly obey it? The human is pushing forward, but Crazy Wheel wants to go
in a circle, so we must all go in a circle.
This is a vital lesson for life. People dont value logical leaders, only individualistic ones. Proof
comes in the shape of three news items sent in by readers.
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1) When a choir and orchestra started playing Handels Messiah in the UK, music-loving
scientist Dr. David Glowacki lurched from side to side with his arms raised and then tried
to crowd-surf. Staff threw the theoretical chemist out of the concert hall but many people
pointed out that his response to hearing great music was the right one.
2) Police trying to arrest a felon in the US town of Prattville, Alabama, tried it the standard
way with a search warrant, but found the mans house empty. A creative officer departed
from the police manual by putting the mans dog outside. Good dog! Where is he? Go get
him, boy. The dog promptly ran to a patch of long grass where his master was hiding and
stood there, wagging his tail.
3) A homeless man in Taguatinga, Brazil, collapsed in the street and an ambulance picked
him up. The paramedic noticed that the mans only friend, a street dog, was running after
the vehicle, street after street.
The ambulance-man was so deeply moved by this, that he did what anybody would do. Yes,
he filmed it for YouTube. Eventually, over-riding the rulebook, he demanded that the driver
stop so that the dog could ride in the ambulance with his friend. This proves a great truth:
life really can be a Disney movie.
Of course, most examples of departure from procedure are smaller scale than those above.
Some years ago, this writer was downloading a computer program for his kids when a
message flashed onto the screen: Please wait for the wizard to install this program.
The childrens eyes widened. Theyre gonna send a wizard to our house!? I pulled out my
phone and pretended to send a text: No need for wizard. Can install by ourselves. (Its very
important to impress your children when they are young because when they are teens you
become too embarrassing to even be seen with in public).
But I did tell the children that one day we might invite the wizard for tea and cake. Its
important to cultivate your uniqueness. Ninety-eight percent of people are stupid, but luckily
I am in the other 4 percent.
Family relationships, of course, are the best place to experiment with original thinking.
When my kids are grown-ups who own their own homes, I am going to move in, eat all the
food and spend all their money, while announcing at regular intervals: Im bored. After 18
years, I will leave without saying thank you and then contact them at regular intervals to
send cash grants.
Yes, it sounds insane, but I suspect a surprising number of parents reading this column may
be thinking: hmm, I might just choose to follow the crazy wheel.
____________
The writer is a columnist and journalist.

johannes Nugroho: In Indian Graft Battle, Some Lessons

for Indonesias President
Joko Widodo may not have heard of Arvind Kejriwal at all but no doubt he would envy his
position as head of his own political party

The politics of India, as those of Indonesia, are unpredictable. Arvind Kejriwal, the founder of
the Aam Aadmi (Common Man) Party, was recently elected chief minister of Delhi. His
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comeback is surprising, given his failure last year in challenging the Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP)s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi in the general elections.
Kejriwal is Indias political figure most similar to our President Joko Widodo. Both men have
sought to represent the interests of the grassroots populations of their respective countries.
They have also been accused of being foreign stooges. Both are popular on social media,
with Kejriwal becoming the fifth-most-mentioned Indian politician on both Twitter and
Facebook during his Delhi Legislative Assembly campaign in 2013.
The central theme of Kejriwals political career has been his pledge to root out corruption in
Indian politics. In fact, it was his involvement in the 2011 Jan Lokpal movement which
brought him to public attention for the first time.
The movement demanded that the Indian government pass a parliamentary bill to
strengthen the fight against corruption through the formation of a public ombudsman office
with powers to prosecute officials suspected of graft. The new body would be akin to
Indonesias own Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK).
By the same token, Jokowi during his presidential campaign also promised to fortify
Indonesias anti-graft measures. He even pledged a ten-fold increase in the KPKs budget to
expedite matters. His previous track records as both mayor of Solo and governor of Jakarta,
during which he attempted to simplify bureaucracy to cut corruption, seemed promising.
Hence, President Jokowis inaction, in the face of the obvious attempts by the National Police
to cripple the KPK for naming its candidate chief graft-suspect, is astounding. This is perhaps
where he and Kejriwal differ.
It may be too early to ascertain Kejriwals commitment to fighting corruption as he has just
assumed office. But at the very least, he did resign as chief minister in 2013 because his
minority government failed to pass an anti-corruption bill.
In terms of deed, Kejriwal has shown more courage than Jokowi in staying true to his
principles. Kejriwals resignation after mere 49 days in office was an indication that he would
not bow to the forces of compromise and horse trading by his coalition partners when it
came to an integral theme of his vision of a corruption free India.
Another difference between Jokowi and Kejriwal is that while the former has attained the
highest political office in Indonesia, the latter has so far managed only to secure the chief
ministership of Delhi, a position comparable to Jokowis previous post as governor of Jakarta.
But the most important distinguishing feature between the two is that Kejriwal has one asset
that Jokowi has never had: his own political party, the AAP. The party will without a doubt
prove instrumental if he chooses to have another attempt at the prime ministership in the
future.
This difference is important. Despite adhering to a presidential cabinet, Indonesian
presidents tend to be better served when they have their own political parties, as Jokowis
predecessor Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono proved.
The current police-versus-KPK crisis also suggests that Jokowi might have a freer scope of
action, if he were in full control of his parliamentary coalition. The closeness of police chief
candidate Comr. Gen. Budi Gunawan to the presidents main political backer, Megawati
Soekarnoputri, chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), would
undoubtedly have presented Jokowi with a predicament if he had refused to nominate Budi.
The problematic situation then became a mine trap when the House of Representatives
(DPR), known for its uncooperativeness with the president, rushed to approve Budis
candidacy. Later on, a number of lawmakers said that the House would impeach the
president if he dared cancel the appointment.
For a leader without any majority in the legislature and no direct access to control the
political parties in his coalition, like Jokowi, the going can only get tougher. Jokowi may not

have heard of Kejriwal at all but no doubt he would envy his position as head of his own
political party.
Between Jokowi and Kejriwal, one thing remains highly ironic. While Kejriwal spent years
campaigning for the formation of Indias version of KPK, Jokowi today seems to be willing to
see our KPK seriously embattled, while all he has to do is empower it. Let us hope history will
record that both men remained consistent in their efforts to fight corruption both in
Indonesia and India.
Johannes Nugroho, a writer from Surabaya, can be contacted at johannes@nonacris.com.

View point: Hard, soft or effete: Jokowi, choose your

brand of power!
Julia Suryakusuma, Jakarta | Opinion | Wed, February 11 2015, 9:40 AM
In April 2011, a video of First Brig. Norman Kamaru lip-synching to the Hindi song Chaiyya
Chaiyya went viral. The then 26-year-old policeman from Gorontalo became an overnight
star and YouTube sensation.
Watching the six-and-a-half minute video, you can see why. Very convincingly, he mouths the
lyrics and mimics the movements of Bollywood heartthrob Shah Rukh Khan, who sang the
song in the 1998 Hindi film Dil Se (From the Heart). Normans instant fame garnered him a
ton of interviews, appearances on television talk shows and even recording offers.
Why was the Indonesian public so taken by Normans Bollywood foray? Well, besides the fact
that he was a policeman and his engaging performance, the popularity of the song and the
film also helped.
Bollywood films have long had a place in the hearts of Indonesian audiences, but lately its
said to have reached feverish proportions, popular not just in urban, but also rural areas.
Given Indonesians love story with Indian films and songs, I wonder why the Indian Embassy
bothers to organize the Festival of India (FOI) each year.
Well, why does Coca Cola keep on advertising when its already so well known? Its to do with
branding, creating a unique name and image to distinguish yourself from others.
In this way, countries are like companies too, and cultural diplomacy, or soft power the
ability to attract, persuade and co-opt is the way to create Brand India or whatever
country it may be. Ultimately its about self-benefit.
This years four-month festival is called Sahabat India (Friends of India). Given that the two
countries have such long-standing links, Gurjit Singh, Indias ambassador to Indonesia, said
the festival is more of a tribute to the enduring relationship between the two nations.
There is a little bit of India in every bit of Indonesia, Singh claims. Well, being born in New
Delhi, and having India in my middle name [Indiati], how could I disagree?
As soft powers go, Indias is actually pretty impressive, covering a wide range of fields. As
one writer put it, from Buddha to Bollywood to BPOs. BPO, in case you didnt know (I
didnt!) is business process outsourcing, the fastest growing segment of information
technology enabled services (ITES).
Personally, I am more familiar with yoga and Indian cuisine, as I imagine most people are,
than with BPOs, because both touch peoples lives in a direct way.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi understood this well, which is the whole point of soft
power. Last year, in an address to the UN General Assembly, he urged the UN to support the
promotion of yoga around the world and succeeded in having the UN declare June 21, 2014,
as International Yoga Day.
India is already a superpower with lots of hard power its the worlds largest democracy, it
has the second-largest population and the third-largest economy in the world (gross
domestic product based on purchasing power parity valuation), the fourth most powerful
military and top 10 global operations are headed by Indians and India still felt it was
important to have an International Yoga Day?
Thats because, as Shashi Tharoor, a prominent Indian politician and award-winning writer,
said in a 2009 TED talk, in todays world and in the information era, its not the size of a
countrys army, but a countrys ability to influence the worlds hearts and minds that
matters.
That should be a cinch, right, for Indonesia? The country is famous for its super friendly
people, rich and diverse culture and cuisine, weird and wacky customs, great beaches,
amazing wildlife, incredible biodiversity, pleasant tropical climate, great tourist destinations
the list goes on.
But, the reality is, Indonesia is losing the soft-power race. In terms of tourism alone its lost
out to Incredible India and Malaysia Truly Asia. Even Thailand has done better. Often, and
certainly recently, the image of Indonesia that comes to mind and proliferates in the news, is
of rampant corruption, natural disasters, deforestation, environmental degradation,
terrorism, drug smuggling, a land of smokers (ranking number three in the world) and plane
crashes.
When Joko Jokowi Widodo became President, he had a lot of soft power momentum, riding
on a wave of popular support, presenting a new image of a leader who was out to win
peoples hearts and minds.
But day by day, he has fallen short of our expectations: in his overly compromised choice of
Cabinet ministers (with 21 out of 34 ministers linked to his political backers), in his
nomination of Comr. Gen. Budi Gunawan, a corruption suspect, as a candidate for head of
the police, in the way he handled the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) versus the
police debacle and, most recently, by reportedly allowing the signing of a memorandum of
understanding (MOU) to build an Indonesian car between a little known company and the
Malaysian carmaker Proton. Was it because the company was owned by AM Hendropriyono,
one of his political supporters, who incidentally is often linked to various human rights
abuses?
Last but not least, Jokowis hard-headed refusal to grant clemency to convicted drugtraffickers, even Myuran Sukumaran and Andrew Chan, two of the so-called Bali Nine, who in
their 10 years of incarceration reformed themselves, shows a cruel, heartless, unforgiving
face of Indonesia. In any case, Jokowis claim of a national drug emergency, which
necessitates the death penalty, is based on false statistics. Oops!
In the end, Jokowi is hard when he should be soft and soft when he should be hard. That
amounts to being an effete leader.
Easy come, easy go, they say. Normans instant celebrityhood was a flash in the pan. He was
fired from the police, his career as an artist put on hold and now he has to be content
selling Manado porridge with his wife Desi.
Is Jokowis popularity and leadership also a flash in the pan?

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_______________
The writer is the author of Julias Jihad
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Commentary: Why Indonesia Will Ignore All Bali Nine

Protests
President Joko Widodo has been on the receiving end of international protests and
condemnation for executing foreign nationals in January. He now plans to send 11 more
convicted drug traffickers on death row, including two Australians, to the firing squad.
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has called for Indonesia to halt executions. Australian
Prime Minister Tony Abbott also pleaded for Jokowi, as the president is popularly known in
Indonesia, to spare the lives of Bali Nine duo Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran,
warning that the relationship between the two countries will be harmed if Indonesia proceeds
with the executions.
Could their pleas actually move Jokowi to change his mind and grant clemency to the deathrow prisoners now facing execution?
It is doubtful that Jokowi will be moved. He has insisted that the death penalty is a law
enforcement solution to a national drug emergency. But more than that, it is also a
political issue.
Human rights activists have been calling for Jokowi to abide by Indonesias obligation to
grant death row convicts a genuine chance of pardons and commutations as stated in the
International Convention on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR).
For Jokowi, the calculation is clear: the political cost is too high for him to grant such pardons.
As I have explained, while there is no systematic and independent survey that could show
the percentage of Indonesians supporting the death penalty, Indonesias political elite is
generally united in their support for capital punishment.
Following Bans call to halt execution, the deputy speaker of the Indonesian House of
Representatives, Fadli Zon, who is from the opposition coalition, declared his support for
Jokowi to ignore the UNs call and go ahead with the executions. He stressed that there is
overwhelming public support for executing drug offenders.
Abbotts linking of aid to his call for Indonesia to show mercy he pointedly referred to the
A$1 billion Australia had provided after the 2004 tsunami provoked a negative response.
Threats are not part of diplomatic language, foreign affairs spokesman Arrmanatha Nasir
said. And from what I know, no-one responds well to threats.
Vice-President Jusuf Kalla stated that Indonesia would carry out the executions regardless of
Australias protests. Foreign Minister Retno L.P. Marsudi said that the death penalty was
purely a law enforcement issue.
The Schapelle Corby case proved that being lenient to drug smugglers was politically
unpopular, as then-president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono discovered. So Jokowi is not likely
to consider halting the executions. Such a move simply does not have clear political benefits.
Granting clemency to convicted drug traffickers would also provide ammunition for Jokowis
powerful critics to hammer his administration further. Domestically, Jokowis popularity is
suffering from his seeming indifference to the National Polices efforts to undermine the
Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK).

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Foreign pressures will not do much to sway Jokowis opinion. Instead, it is more likely to
generate a nationalist backlash.
In light of Bans appeal for sentence commutation, several Indonesian news media outlets,
including Merdeka.com, Detik.com, Media Indonesia and Viva News, ran an opinion article by
Hikmahanto Juwana, a professor of international law from the University of Indonesia (UI).
He rhetorically asked where Ban was when Indonesian migrant workers were executed in
Saudi Arabia.
Unlike Yudhoyono, who seemed to strive really hard to be liked by everyone, Jokowi has
seemed not to really care about what other nations think about him. After his first foreign
trips in November 2014, Jokowi remarked: Whats the point of having many friends but we
only get the disadvantages? Many friends should bring many benefits.
It could probably be argued that, for Jokowi, it is less a case of Jokowi should commute the
Bali Nines death sentence to make Tony Abbott happy than what could Tony Abbott do for
Jokowi so he would commute their death sentence?
Jokowis refusal to pardon drug convicts on death row could be explained by his desire to
project the public image of a decisive leader. Jokowi wants to be seen as a leader who
commands a country with strong rule of law.
There are some who dissent from my argument. Jarrah Sastrawan has argued that Jokowis
bullheaded refusal to grant clemency was not based on concern for his personal image, but
rather on: his personal conservatism and the impact of the Soeharto-era propaganda of his
youth.
We may disagree on Jokowis inner motivation. I will not speculate on that. But it is clear that
regardless of his motivation, Jokowi wants to be seen as a strong leader or, rather, as father
of the nation who can be firm when necessary.
Yohanes Sulaiman is a lecturer in international relations and political science at the
Indonesian Defense University.

Commentary: Oils Decline Keeps Looking Like a Better Bet

By A. Gary Shilling on 10:01 am Feb 17, 2015
At about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak
of $107. They may fall more, perhaps even as low as $10 to $20. Heres why.
US economic growth has averaged 2.3 percent a year since the recovery started in mid2009. Thats about half the rate you might expect in a rebound from the deepest recession
since the 1930s. Meanwhile, growth in China is slowing, is minimal in the euro zone and is
negative in Japan. Throw in the large increase in US vehicle gas mileage and other
conservation measures and its clear why global oil demand is weak and might even decline.
Oil prices
At the same time, output is climbing, thanks in large part to increased US production from
hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling. US output rose by 15 percent in the 12 months
through November from a year earlier, based on the latest data, while imports declined 4
percent.
Something else figures in the mix: The eroding power of the OPEC cartel. Like all cartels, the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is designed to ensure stable and abovemarket crude prices. But those high prices encourage cheating, as cartel members exceed
their quotas. For the cartel to function, its leader in this case, Saudi Arabia must
accommodate the cheaters by cutting its own output to keep prices from falling. But the
Saudis have seen their past cutbacks result in market-share losses.

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So the Saudis, backed by other Persian Gulf oil producers with sizable financial resources
Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates embarked on a game of chicken with the
cheaters. On Nov. 27, OPEC said that it wouldnt cut output, sending oil prices off a cliff. The
Saudis figure they can withstand low prices for longer than their financially weaker
competitors, who will have to cut production first as pumping becomes uneconomical.
What is the price at which major producers chicken out and slash output? Whatever that
price is, it is much lower than the $125 a barrel Venezuela needs to support its mismanaged
economy. The same goes for Ecuador, Algeria, Nigeria, Iraq, Iran and Angola.
Saudi Arabia requires a price of more than $90 to fund its budget. But it has $726 billion in
foreign currency reserves and is betting it can survive for two years with prices of less than
$40 a barrel.
Furthermore, the price when producers chicken out isnt necessarily the average cost of
production, which for 80 percent of new US shale oil production this year will be $50 to $69 a
barrel, according to Daniel Yergin of energy consultant IHS Cambridge Energy Research
Associates. Instead, the chicken-out point is the marginal cost of production, or the additional
costs after the wells are drilled and the pipes are laid. Another way to think of it: Its the price
at which cash flow for an additional barrel falls to zero.
Last month, Wood Mackenzie, an energy research organization, found that of 2,222 oil fields
surveyed worldwide, only 1.6 percent would have negative cash flow at $40 a barrel. That
suggests there wont be a lot of chickening out at $40. Keep in mind that the marginal cost
for efficient US shale-oil producers is about $10 to $20 a barrel in the Permian Basin in Texas
and about the same for oil produced in the Persian Gulf.
Also consider the conundrum financially troubled countries such as Russia and Venezuela
find themselves in: They desperately need the revenue from oil exports to service foreign
debts and fund imports. Yet, the lower the price, the more oil they need to produce and
export to earn the same number of dollars, the currency used to price and trade oil.
With new discoveries, stability in parts of the Middle East and increasing drilling efficiency,
global oil output will no doubt rise in the next several years, adding to pressure on prices. US
crude oil production is forecast to rise by 300,000 barrels a day during the next year from 9.1
million now. Sure, the drilling rig count is falling, but its the inefficient rigs that are being
idled, not the horizontal rigs that are the backbone of the fracking industry. Consider also
Iraqs recent deal with the Kurds, meaning that another 550,000 barrels a day will enter the
market.
While supply climbs, demand is weakening. OPEC forecasts demand for its oil at a 14-year
low of 28.2 million barrels a day in 2017, 600,000 less than its forecast a year ago and down
from current output of 30.7 million. It also cut its 2015 demand forecast to a 12-year low of
29.12 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reduced its 2015 global demand forecast for the
fourth time in 12 months by 230,000 barrels a day to 93.3 million and sees supply exceeding
demand this year by 400,000 barrels a day.
Although the 40 percent decline in US gasoline prices since April 2014 has led consumers to
buy more gas-guzzling SUVs and pick-up trucks, consumers during the past few years have
bought the most efficient blend of cars and trucks ever. At the same time, slowing growth in
China and the shift away from energy-intensive manufactured exports and infrastructure to
consumer services is depressing oil demand. China accounted for two-thirds of the growth in
demand for oil in the past decade.
So look for more big declines in crude oil and related energy prices. My next column will
cover the winners and losers from low oil prices.
Bloomberg View
A. Gary Shilling is a Bloomberg View columnist
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A new philosophy of money

for the modern age
Nury Vittachi, Bangkok | Opinion | Sun, February 08 2015, 10:21 AM
The kids were shocked when I told them that if they had been born in the Olden Days, they
would have had to hunt for their food. But we dont even know where burgers live, said
one.
They live in caves, I explained. In America. And they have claws.
Modern parents must teach children that everything has a cost in money or effort. To do this,
I share cash-related stories from the newspaper.
Recent example: a sneaky jeweler who wanted to hide his sales from the taxman sold 6million worth of jewelry for cash. The buyers took the jewelry and left him with a suitcase full
of Monopoly money.
The kids couldnt see the problem. A suitcase full of Monopoly money had to be way better
than boring bits of jewelry.
The guy would win every Monopoly game he played for the rest of his life. Good point.
I bought that particular board game after seeing an article on Investopedia on life lessons
you could learn from Monopoly, such as keep cash on hand and be patient, etc. Like
most articles on the Internet, it was garbage, beginning to end.
Monopoly teaches you five things. 1) Be a vicious, merciless landlord. 2) If you get the card
that says Bank error in your favor, forget ethics, keep the money. 3) Only pay income tax if
forced to. 4) Business people end up in jail sometimes, no big deal. 5) The ultimate purpose
of life is to bankrupt everyone else and end up with all the cash.
Who created this game? Li Ka-shing? Rupert Murdoch? Donald Trump?
Nobody on earth would accept these as good life lessons, except perhaps for everyone in
Asia, America, Europe, Russia, Africa, Australia, Latin America, etc.
But looking for educational finance items in the paper left me more baffled than the kids.
Consider these two. 1) A New York dealer in modern art pleaded guilty to selling worthless
items for millions of dollars. Thats illegal now? I thought that was the normal business model
for modern art. 2) A businessman set up a fake university in Hong Kong that would give you
a no-studying honorary degree if you just gave them money. Wait. Thats what real
universities do too.
Readers who regularly contribute to this column pointed out that most individuals have their
own deeply-held philosophies of money. This is true, and its not difficult to work them out.
My boss: You cannot buy respect. Not with your salary, anyway. My boss wife: Money
doesnt matter. As long as youre rich. My daughters: Money cant buy happiness, so thats
why we went shopping and spent it all. My son: Money cant buy love but it can buy the
important stuff, video games, black t-shirts and burgers. My wife: Money is made of paper.
That means, technically, it grows on trees.
The good news is that all this thinking about the philosophy of cash eventually left me with a
practical plan for the future.
Everyone agrees that love is worth more than money, right? At the end of this month, I am
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going to give my landlord a hug.

The writer is a columnist and journalist.

View point : The ordinary king and us

Dwi Atmanta, Jakarta | Opinion | Sun, February 08 2015, 10:25 AM
Many viewed the popular Javanese wayang (puppet show) fairytale Petruk dadi Ratu (Petruk
becomes a king) as a self-fulfilled prophecy with the assumption by Joko Jokowi Widodo of
the presidency. Like Petruk, one of the four eternal servants of the Pandawa in the Javanese
adaptation of the Mahabharata epic, Jokowi is deemed as a representative of the ordinary
people who climbs to the throne at the expense of the elite.
No one had any doubt about Jokowis commitment to the people, as his performance as the
mayor of Surakarta in 2005-2012 and governor of Jakarta in 2012-2014 demonstrated. It was
the proven track record that lured the majority of voters to choose him in last years election
over his rival Prabowo Subianto, the antithesis of Jokowi in almost all aspects.
But now, less than four months into his term, many, particularly his detractors, have started
to sneer at Jokowi as the personification of Petruk. As the story goes, Petruk is unqualified for
the throne and therefore his rise to power generates instability, if not a mess. Fortunately his
reign is short-lived.
So soon? Yes, according to the Javanese folklore, Petruk is catapulted to the throne by
accident after the amulet belonging to his ailing master Abimanyu passes to him. Due to the
amulet, Abimanyu, son of Arjuna from Subadra, is destined to beget the future king of
Hastinapura, Parikesit. As soon as Abimanyu recovers, Petruk surrenders the amulet to the
deserving owner voluntarily.
In many ways Petruks perceived ineligibility to govern is biased in favor of the elite to justify
a long-held belief that ordinary men are never born to rule but rather to serve. In fact, in
many parts of the world, Indonesia included, rulers mostly come from the elite. Regime
change cannot happen without the elites say so.
In the Indonesian context, the founding fathers belonged to the educated elite and the
national leadership circulated within the elite group. Succession strictly involved the political
blue blood, by birth or marriage, until a lesser known furniture businessman, Jokowi,
emerged.
Less than four months since his euphoric inauguration on Oct. 20, 2014, however, Jokowi is
facing an uphill, complicated struggle that will prove whether he merits the top executive
post. Instead of fighting his opposition, Jokowi is, ironically, pitted against his own allies, who
helped him win the presidential race, in particular the Indonesian Democratic Party of
Struggle (PDI-P) and its paramount leader Megawati Soekarnoputri. What a similarity with
Petruk fighting his own Pandawa masters.
The rift centers on the nomination of Comr. Gen. Budi Gunawan, formerly an adjutant to
Megawati when she was president, as the National Police chief, despite his implication in
past corruption cases.
Jokowi is torn between his commitment to anticorruption, which earned him popular support
and loyalty to his party. Installing Budi, whom the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK)
has named a suspect, will cost Jokowi his credibility, not to mention his attempts to refute
the allegations that he is no more than a puppet president.
On the other hand, withdrawing Budis nomination will spark a new political brouhaha given
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his endorsement by the House of Representatives. The worst-case scenario will see the PDI-P
withdraw its political support from Jokowi, or if necessary lead a move to impeach him.
In fact some in the PDI-P inner circle have expressed disappointment in Jokowi for not paying
back enough to the party. Jokowi only awarded three ministerial seats to the PDI-P despite its
billing as the election winner, compared with its middle-level coalition partner the NasDem
Party, which earned four Cabinet portfolios. Jokowi has reportedly also angered Megawati by
appointing Luhut Binsar Panjaitan the Presidential Delivery Unit chief.
PDI-P deputy chairman Pramono Anung has dismissed claims of a feud between Jokowi and
PDI-P, saying Megawati had three times let Jokowi take decisions that went against her
wishes without hard feelings. The first was the formation of the Transition Team prior to
Jokowis inauguration, the second was the appointment of Cabinet ministers whom Megawati
did not endorse and the third was a variety of bills proposed by the government for the
national legislative program that ran counter to the PDI-P line, such as the national security
bill.
One month has passed since the controversy surrounding Budis nomination began. Not only
have Jokowis critics and enemies piled on the pressure for him to act quickly to resolve the
matter beyond further doubt, so too have his admirers. The crisis, which has been protracted
and has been seen to spiral out of his control, as evinced in the fierce collision between the
police and the KPK, has cast Jokowi in a very poor light. Many more now believe the man who
they once dubbed Satrio Piningit (the knight in waiting) is no better than Petruk, who became
a king by chance.
Jokowi has listened to many voices and taken necessary action to anticipate the
repercussions of whatever decision he will make on Budi. His surprise approach to his former
rival Prabowo and communication with the opposition Red-and-White Coalition, his meetings
with leaders of legislative and judicial powers as well as his gathering of Army generals
before finally holding a discussion with Megawati and the leaders of the Great Indonesia
Coalition indicate that Jokowi is calculating well his moves to ensure he remains in command
of the game.
That Jokowi went ahead with his tour of three ASEAN neighbors despite the crisis at home
signals his confidence that everything is under control and will remain so when he returns
home to announce his decision. He would not go overseas had the stalemate got worse.
When Jokowi finally withdraws Budis candidacy, names a replacement and wins the battle,
his resemblance to Petruk will continue. The reason is that behind his modest, down-to-earth
appearance, Petruk hides his invincible powers that even gods cannot match.
People however do not expect him to show off. They only want him to exercise his power to
lead them to prosperity as promised.
_____________
The author is a staff writer at The Jakarta Post
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