Nepal Hazard Risk Assessment

Progress Report July-August 2010

This Progress report is submitted by ADPC to the World Bank & MOHA to highlight the progress in the execution of
Nepal Hazard Risk Assessment (NHRA) project as a part of the project deliverables.

Methodology for Hazard and Risk Assessment

The overall methodology for the project has been presented in the flowchart shown in figure 1.

Figure 1: Flowchart showing methodology of the project

ACTIVITIES CARRIED OUT AND COMPLETED
1. Hazard Assessment
The Hazard and susceptibility modeling and mapping for five
major hazards including earthquake, Floods, Landslides, Epidemics
and drought has been carried. The modeling and mapping has
been carried out based on well established technical and scientific
methods. The details are as below:

1 | NHRA Progress Report July-August 2010

a. Earthquake Hazard Assessment

Earthquake hazard assessment has been carried out based on
Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale. The Peak Ground Acceleration
map developed by Department of Mines and Geology has formed
the basis for earthquake zoning. The attenuation relationship has
been developed based on Trifunac (Trifunac and Brady, 1975).
Other methods like Wald (Wald et al., 1999) and Probabilistic
seismic Hazard Assessment Map (PSHA) have been compared with
developed hazard map, validated and finalized. The study
proposes three zones of earthquake namely Very High,,High,

and Medium severity. The zoning map has been prepared for
various return period i.e, 50 years, 100 years, 250 years and 500
years.
The
maps
are
shown
in
figure
2.

technical team is also been consulted while finalizing the flood

hazard assessment maps. A flood hazard map for Rapti River
basin has been shown in Figure 4(a, b, c, d & e).

Figure 2: Earthquake hazard maps for various return period (Daft

Version)
b. Landslide Hazard Assessment
The developed landslide hazard maps are classified into rainfall
and earthquake induced landslide hazard. Landslide hazard,
defined as the annual probability of occurrence of a potentially
destructive landslide event, was estimated by an appropriate
combination of the triggering factors (mainly extreme
precipitation and seismicity) and susceptibility factors (slope,
lithology, and soil moisture). The weights of different triggering
and susceptibility factors were calibrated to the information
available in landslide inventories and physical processes. The
general approach used in the present study is a modified and
improved version of the approach used by Nadim et al. (2006).
The landslide hazard maps are categorized into high, medium,
low, and negligible severity. The landslide hazards maps are
shown in Figure 3(a, b).

Figure 4: Flood Hazard Assessment for Rapti River Basin(Daft

Version)
d. Drought Hazard Assessment
In recent past, drought has been frequent occurring disasters in
the country. Due to climate changes, rapid degradation of
environment and exploitation of natural resources, the drought
situation has been aggravated. The drought hazard assessment
has been carried out using well established tools i.e. Standard
Precipitation Index (SPI) and Soil Moisture Index (SMI). The
drought susceptibility map has been shown in Figure 5.

Figure 3(a,b): Landslide Hazard Maps: Rainfall and earthquake

triggering factors(Daft Version)
c. Flood Hazard Assessment
Floods are regular phenomenon and affects broadly central and
southern region of Nepal. There are several perennial rivers,
contributing regular floods like Bagmati, Rapti, Kamala, Kankai,
Tinau, Karnali, Babai and Narayani etc. These rivers are
contributing major losses to life and other economic sectors. The
study aims to carry out desktop based flood hazard assessment
for selected rivers. The hazard assessment has resulted in defining
inundation area and depth using one dimension model namely
HECRAS. The Flood scenario has been developed for various
return periods of 10 years, 25 years, 50 years, 100 years and 500
years. The flood hazard assessment is further cross checked with
established and official data and information. A national level

2 | NHRA Progress Report July-August 2010

Figure5 Moderate drought susceptibility maps for (a) Winter (b)

Premonsoon (c) Monsoon and (d) Postmonsoon seasons (Daft
Version)
e. Epidemics Hazard Assessment
The health hazards is classified as diseases and outbreaks. The
health hazard mapping include Diarrhoea, Kalazaar, Hepatitis,
Influenza, Typhoid, Acute Respiratory Infection, Malaria, Sexual
Transmitted Infection, Filariasis, Gastroentri Tuberculosis, and
Leprosy. For each disease and outbreak, Incidence index have
been developed. Further trend analysis has been carried out to
understand severity of the problems. The disease susceptibility
maps are shown in figure 6.

Vulnerability Factors

Exposure of Housing Sector

Very High Seismic hazard Zone

Type A
(Mud
/Adobe0

Type B
(Brick /
Stone)

Type C

Type A

Type B

Type C

(Timber
/ RCC)

2345

5643

9845

--

--

1234

4325

2314

--

--

---

1236

4336

9753

---

----

----

Vulnerability Matrix

Type A

Number
of
houses

2345

100

90

Number of Houses / Assets

Intensity VI

Intensit
y

Intensit
y

D1
D2
D3
D4

VII
D1
D2
D3
D4

VIII
D1
D2
D3
D4

Intensit
y
IX
D1
D2 118
D3 1054
D4 1173

Type B

5643

D1
D2
D3
D4

D1
D2
D3
D4

D1
D2
D3
D4

D1 283
D2 2255
D3 2822
D4 283

Type C

9845

D1
D2
D3
D4

D1
D2
D3
D4

D1
D2
D3
D4

D1 4429
D2 4923
D3 493
D4 ---

D1 Minor Cracks, D2 Large cracks, D3 partial collapse & D4 Compl

ete
collapse

80
X-Axis

70
60

Y-Axis

Type of
NBuilding
o

Damage Ratio

S.

Damage Ratio = Cost of Damage /

Replacement Cost

50
40

Y-Axis

Name of
District

High Seismic Hazard Zone

30
20
10
V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X-Axis

Figure 6: Map showing disease ad out break susceptibility (Daft

Version)

Earthquake Intensity - MMI

Figure 7: Flowchart showing vulnerability and risk assessment for

earthquake

2. Exposure Assessment
In the project, Exposure(UN/ISDR 2009) is defined as People,
property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones that
are thereby subject to potential losses The important sectors,
contributing to the economy has been considered for exposure
and vulnerability assessment. The major sectors including
housing, education, health, transportation, agriculture, industry,
Irrigation infrastructure, power, tourism, trade and power has
been considered for exposure assessment. The exposure analysis
has been carried out for all five types of hazards.

3. Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

a. Earthquake Vulnerability and Risk Assessment
Project scopes for earthquake vulnerability assessment of various
priority sectors. For study purpose two scenarios are considered
I.e. 500 years and 50 years return period. For each hazard
scenario, vulnerability assessment has been carried out
considering sectors including Housing, Education, Health,
Transportation, Tourism, Power and Irrigation. The methodology
includes collection of physical infrastructure data, reclassification
of building and infrastructure type suit to vulnerability modelling,
hazard exposure analysis, define vulnerability criteria and
establish vulnerability assessment matrix. The Vulnerability is
further characterised by setting up fragility functions as shown in
Figure 7. The direct cost of damage to various sectors for various
severity has been calculated.

Figure 8: Flowchart showing the methodology for Flood

vulnerability and risk assessment

b. Flood Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

The Flood vulnerability assessment has been carried out for
specified sectors including agriculture, housing, health, education,
industry, transportation, fishing and tourism. The methodology for
Vulnerability assessment has been established based on expert
opinion of disaster management experts and hydrological
modelling experts. The damage depth has been developed for
floods. The details are shown in Figure 8. The direct cost of
damage has been calculated based on depth damage ratio. Figure
9 shows the approach for flood vulnerability and risk assessment
for agriculture sector.

Figure 9: Flowchart showing the methodology for vulnerability

and risk assessment for Agriculture sector

3 | NHRA Progress Report July-August 2010

c. Landslide Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

The landslide largely affects transportation, housing and
agriculture sectors. Landslide is affecting the community at local
level, but it disconnects several part of the country to the
commercial and necessary facility areas. This leads to indirect
losses. The damage occurs is negligible compare to national scale
Disaster loses. The aspects of indirect damage cost have been
incorporated in economic modelling.
d. Drought Vulnerability and Risk Assessment
The drought largely affects the crops and agriculture. In this
regard, only agriculture sector has been considered. The
methodology for agriculture vulnerability and risk assessment is
shown below in Figure 10.
Drought Vulnerability & Risk Assessment (Agriculture)
Area Affected

Cropping Calendar

Define Seasons

Loss coefficients

Crop Consideration
Drought Category
Severe Drought impacts on Crops

Extreme Drought Impact on Crops

Probability of Drought

70

Estimated Losses in percentage

75

Estimation of Losses

70

Exposure on Agriculture

65

60

55
Impact of w inter drought on w heat and barley
50

Impact of pre-monsoon drought on w heat and barley

Impact of monsoon drought on paddy and maize
Impact of post-monsoon drought on paddy

45

High-Hill

Crop and region

Region

Wheat

Paddy

Maize

Barley

Eastern

19,220

14,140

12,010

9,610

Paddy

Central

17,850

14,850

12,870

8,925

Maize

Western

17,080

16,000

13,570

8,540

Mid Western

16,010

13,000

11,900

8,005

Far Western

16,010

13,000

11,900

8,005

Mid-Hill

45

40
Impact of w inter drought on w heat and barley

35

Impact of pre-monsoon drought on w heat and barley

Impact of monsoon drought on paddy and maize
Impact of post-monsoon drought on paddy

High-Hill

Terai

Mid-Hill

Terai

Severe drought

Region

Moderate Drought impacts on Crops

40

Terai

Wheat

35

30

25

20

15

Impact of w inter drought on w heat and barley

Impact of pre-monsoon drought on w heat and barley
Impact of monsoon drought on paddy and maize

10

Impact of post-monsoon drought on paddy

High-Hill

Market Price

50

Region

Estimate losses in percentage

Price (Rs/mt)

Crop Yield
Yield mt/ha
High hill
Mid hill

60

55

30

40

Price of commodities in the nearest terai market

65

Barley

Mid-Hill

Terai

Moderate drought

Region

Agriculture Yield

Vulnerability function
for crops

Estimation of Loss in crop production due to various intensities of drought

Figure 10:
assessment

flowchart

showing

methodology

for

drought

e. Epidemic Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

The population has been considered for epidemic vulnerability
assessment. Quantification of number of people susceptible to
epidemics are estimated, however the losses are not quantified in
terms of money.

ONGOING ACTIVITIES
4. Assessment of Economic Risk
The economic risk assessment will be developed based on IIASAs
CATSIM model. The CATSIM model will be applied to estimate the
expected losses caused by various hazards. This will result in direct
impacts and indirect losses. The approach for risk assessment
defines five steps including assessment of direct and asset risk,
estimation of fiscal vulnerability, fiscal gaps, mainstreaming
disaster risk and development planning and assessing options and
risk transfer options. The model further uses SAM approach for
assessing multiplier effect on various sectors due to disasters. The
process has been represented in flowchart which may be referred
at Figure 11.

FUTURE ACTIVITIES
5. Recommendations
Mitigation Investments

for

Prioritizing

the

Based on hazard, vulnerability & economic risk assessment and

interaction with focal national government agencies, the
recommendations will be prepared for prioritizing disaster risk
mitigation and associated investments.

4 | NHRA Progress Report July-August 2010

This report was prepared by Project team

Urban Disaster Risk Management (UDRM)
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center
www.adpc.net

July-August 2010

Economic Risk
Assessment

SAM Approach
Assessing Multiplier
Effect

1
0.99

500 year

100 year
50 year

0.98

Flood
Joint
EQ

0.97
0.96

Step 1:
Assessment of Direct
and Asset Risk
(CATSIM)

GDP loss

20 year

0.95
0.94
0

10

15
20
Asset losses (%GDP)

25

30

Damage-frequency distribution for EQ, flood and joint damage distribution

Divided proportionally according to

scale of activity of each industrial sector
Primary loss for each industrial sector
Dividing the changes in output by the
diagonal term of the multiplier matrix

Step 2:
Estimation of Fiscal
Vulnerability

Change in final demand

Multiplied by Multiplier matrix

Loss for each sector

(Higher order effect)

Income impact for households

0.8
Loss of Government (bn USD)

Fiscal gap:
reconstruction and
relief can only be
done partially:
Households do not get
compensated and
infrastructure not
replaced

Aid
Diversion
IDA debt
Financing gap

0.9

0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4

0.2
0.1

20 year event

50 year event

100 year event

Parameters of the production function

Step 4:
Mainstreaming
disaster risk and
development planning

Leads to economic
losses in terms of
GDP and income (also
debt uptake effect
accounted for)

0.3

Step 3:
Estimation of Fiscal
Vulnerability & Fiscal
Gap

500 year event

S.E
2.02

2.30

0.032

Capital

0.46

0.06

7.15

0.0000004

Labor

0.60

0.20

3.00

0.006524

R square : 0.996

Revenue subtracted debt repayment (bn USD)

No event

0.8

Step 5:
Assessing options for
reducing and transfer
disaster risk

Simulated fiscal impacts over next 10

years when accounting for disaster risk
and financial vulnerability

0.82

0.78

0.76

Some events
0.74

0.72

8.6

6
Year

10
8.4

GDP (bn USD)

8.2

Simulated GDP impacts over next

10 years

No event

7.8

7.6

Some events

7.4

7.2

10

Year

Figure 11: Flowchart showing process of economic risk assessment

5 | NHRA Progress Report July-August 2010

P-value

4.64

Fiscal vulnerability and fiscal gap for the joint risk distribution

0.84

t value

Coefficient
Constant