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Introduction To Engineering Systems, ESD.00 System Dynamics - I
Introduction To Engineering Systems, ESD.00 System Dynamics - I
Introduction To Engineering Systems, ESD.00 System Dynamics - I
Systems, ESD.00
System Dynamics - I
Lecture 2
Dr. Afreen Siddiqi
*Lewis
Lewis Thomas (biologist and essayist),
essayist) quoted in Business Dynamics,
Dynamics J.
J Sterman,
Sterman 2000
Systems Thinking
System Dynamics is a method that helps us learn and understand complex systems
It is fundamentally interdisciplinary and brings together tools and theories from a
wide variety of traditional disciplines.
At its core, its foundations are on nonlinear dynamics and mathematical feedback
control theory, and it draws from economics, social psychology and other sciences.
We use system dynamics to construct models of sociotechnical systems, and use
computer simulation to determine how these systems may behave in the real
world
Murphys Law
Our actions to solve some problem tend to make the problem worse or
create new problems in its place (can you think of examples?)
Decision
Results
Situation
Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.
Decisions
Goals
Environment
Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.
Examples of feedback
comparison
Desired State
Control
Control
Element
System(or
System
(or
controlled
controlled
Process)
Feedback signal
Actual State
Decisions
Policy
Policy resistance is often due
to incomplete understanding
and accounting of full range of
feedbacks
Goals
Side effects
Environment
Goals of
other agents
Actions of
others
Mental Models
75 Days
22 Days
85
Days
Manufacturing
lead time
Order fulfillment
lead time
Customer acceptance
lead time
DoubleLoop
Double
Loop Learning
Real world
Decisions
Strategy, structure,
decision rules
Information
feedback
Mental models
of real world
Bounded Rationality
1957)
Simulation
Creating and simulating a model lets you make your mental model explicit,
and then helps you see how your defined system structure will behave in
time.
Formalizing qualitative models and testing via simulation often leads to
radical changes in the way we understand reality.
Discrepancies between formal and mental models stimulate
improvements in both, including changes in basic assumptions, time
horizon and dyynamic hypothesis.
yp
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
conditions.
1. Problem articulation
(boundary selection)
5. Policy
formulation
& evaluation
4. Testing
2. Dynamic
hypothesis
3. Formulation
Formulating a Hypothesis
+
Eggs
Chickens
Chickens
Eggs
Time
Diagram Notations
Ref: Fig
gure 5-1,, J. Sterman,,Business D ynamics: Sy
ystems
Thinking and Modeling for a complex world, McGraw Hill, 2000
+ Birth rate
Population
Death rate
Fractional
birth rate
Average lifetime
Key
Causal link
Link polarity
+
Birth rate
variable
Population
variable
or
or
Link Polarity
Symbol
+
X
Interpretation
Mathematics
Y/X>0
In the case of
accumulations,
+
Product quality
Effort
t0
Births
Y = (X+....)ds+ Yt0
Y/X<0
In the case of
accumulations,
t
Y = (-X+....)ds+ Yt0
t0
Sales
+
Examples
Results
+
Population
-
Product price
Sales
-
Frustration
Results
-
Deaths
Population
Loop Polarity
Clarity in Polarity
Clarity in Logic
M
Models
d l b
become complex
l with
i h too
much detail
Too little detail can make model
confusing
Add enough structure so that it is
easy to grasp the logic
Bias in reporting
system
+
Reported product
quality
De
y
la
De
la
Management bias
toward high quality
+
Product
quality
D ela
Management
perception
of product
quality
y
+
Desired
product
quality
Quality
improvement
programs
Quality
shortfall
D elay
Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.
Case Study:
Issue/case
need
d to
t balance
b l
course load/work
l d/
k and
d personall lif
life
Two possible strategies
Key variables
Assignment rate [tasks/wk]
CLDs
Assignment backlog
decreases with work
completion rate and
increases with the
assiignment rate.
Work pressure
increases workweek,
but if pressure is too
high, youll devote
l
less
effort
ff t to
t th
the
assignments to get
work done quickly by
cutting corners
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