INTL FCStone Ltd

Global Footprint Macro Weekly: Playing the ranges

LONDON, UK. 27th April 2015

This morning has begun in the same vein as Fridays close:

Cable continues to trade with a 1.51 handle

EURUSD continues to trade with a 1.08 handle

USDJPY continues to trade just either side of the 119 handle

Crude remains in the $55 - $60 / barrel range

Brent continues to flirt around $65 / barrel
Last week was littered with a number of significant data releases which saw selling pressure
exerted (whether you agree or disagree with this) on the greenback:
 The German ZEW survey (always a highly anticipated release) printed on Tuesday 21st April:
The expectation of economic growth fell to 53.3 from the previous months 54.8 vs a
consensus of 55.3. Contrary to this, the survey expectations number posted a very strong
increase for the current situation component, printing at 70.20 vs a consensus of 56.50 and
a previous print of 55.10. The main focus was on the expectations number to provide some
insight into the German IFO that was then published on Friday 24th. Sentiment was for the
IFO to disappoint but we had a mixed bag: German IFO Business Climate printed at 108.6 vs
108.4 expected, but the IFO Expectations number missed consensus, printing at 103.5 vs
104.5 consensus.

Copyright 2015 Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 Eurozone PMI data printed on Thursday, which suggested some easing of growth
momentum for the start of Q2 across the board. The French numbers came out weaker
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than expected, as did the German numbers, with the cumulative Eurozone numbers
printing softer at 51.9 vs 52.6 expected for manufacturing, 53.7 vs 54.5 expected for
services and 53.5 vs 54.4 for the composite.
 US Durable Goods came out strong at 4% vs 0.6% expected

Copyright 2015 Bloomberg Finance L.P.

In the midst of this data-frenzy is the lingering concern that Greece will struggle to meet its
debt obligations. It may be prudent to say that it is more of a realistic eventuality as opposed
to a risk, but interestingly, a global bank recently held an informal survey on their portal to gage
market opinion on a Grexit and just over a third of those participating believed that it would
never happen. Angela Merkel appears outwardly supportive in keeping Greece in the single
currency clan on the basis that they meet their requirements, but a weaker EUR undoubtedly
helps the German export market. Alas, Riga has been somewhat unsuccessful. The market will
look to see how this plays out.
Although today has been reasonably data-light with just the UK CBI (disappointing consensus)
and the preliminary US PMI numbers (disappointing consensus) hitting the markets wires, we
have some important releases ahead of us this week, notably:
 The FOMC MP Decision: mixed US data has raised doubts around the outlook for the US
economy and the willingness of the Fed to raise interest rates. Rhetoric will be studied
closely. Anything vaguely dovish could trigger an accelerated USD sell-off.
 US GDP: Consensus at 41% vs 2.2% previously
 UK GDP: Sterling has astounded many with its current strength given the continued
confusion surrounding the impending UK election. The first print of Q1 GDP is expected to
show a significant slowdown in UK GDP growth in Q1 despite the PMIs having remained
London
Moor House
120 London Wall
London, EC2Y 5ET
Tel: +44 203 580 6100

New York
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Tel: +65 6309 1000

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firm. Consensus is eyeing 0.5% QoQ and 2.6% YoY.
Data for the remaining week includes:

UK BBA mortgage approvals, GDP, Index of services, GfK consumer confidence, Lloyds
Business Barometer, Mortgage approvals, Manufacturing PMI

Eurozone Consumer confidence, Unemployment, Flash CPI

German GfK consumer confidence, CPI, Unemployment

Japan Retail sales, Industrial production

US Case-Shiller house price index, Consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing
index, GDP, Core PCE, Pending home sales, FOMC policy decision, Personal
spending/income, PCE deflator, jobless claims, Chicago PMI, ISM manufacturing, Uni. of
Michigan consumer sentiment
All the best for the week ahead.

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London
Moor House
120 London Wall
London, EC2Y 5ET
Tel: +44 203 580 6100

New York
708 Third Ave
15th Floor
New York, NY 10017
Tel: +1 212 485 3549
www.intlfcstone.com/Main-Channels/Global-Payments

Singapore
#52-00 One Raffles Place
Singapore
048616
Tel: +65 6309 1000