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Statistics Homework Sample Questions and Answers:

Question 1. Calculate the 3 yearly, and 5 yearly moving averages for the following
time series:

Year 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Prodn. 500 540 550 530 520 560 600 640 620 610 640
(in
quintals)
:

Solution. Computation of the 3 yearly, and 5 yearly moving averages

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Year Prodn. 3 Yearly 5 Yearly

Moving totals Moving totals Moving av.

Moving av.
1994 500 - - -
1995 540 - - -
1996 550 1590 2640 528
1997 530 530 2700 540
1998 520 1620 2760 552
1999 560 540 2850 570
2000 600 1600 2940 588
2001 640 533 3030 606
2002 620 1610 3110 622
2003 610 537 - -
2004 640 1680 - -
560
1800
600
1860
620
1870
623
1870
623
-
-

Note. For 3 yearly calculations, the first group consists of 1994, 1995 and 1995; the second
group of 1995, 1996 and 1997 and so on. In the similar manner, groupings have been
made in case of 5 yearly calculations viz : 1994 + 1995 + 1996 + 1997 + 1998 ;

1995 + 1996 + 1997 + 1998 + 1999 and so on.

Question 2. Find the 4 yearly moving averages from the following data (i) by centering the
averages, and (ii) by centering the totals:

Year : 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Prodn. 75 85 98 90 95 108 124 140 150 160
(in
tones):

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 Solution. (i) Computation of the 4 yearly moving averages by centering the
averages.

Year Production 4 yearly 4 yearly Moving 4 yearly moving

(1) (2) moving moving total of average centred
totals (3) average moving (col. 5 + 2) (6)
(4) averages in
twos(5)
1995 75 - - - -
1996 85 87 - -
1997 98 348 92
1998 90 368 97.75 179.00 89.50
1999 95 391 104.25 189.75 94.87
2000 108 417 116.75 202.00 101.00
2001 124 467 130.50 221.00 110.50
2002 140 522 143.50 247.25 123.63
2003 150 574 - 274.00 137.00
2004 160 - - - -
- - -

(ii) Computation of the 4 yearly Moving Averages by centering the totals

Year Production 4 yearly Centering 4 yearly

(1) (2) moving totals of the two moving
(3) adjacent average
totals (4) centred (col.
5 + 2) (6)
1995 75 - - -
1996 85 - - -
1997 98 348
1998 90 368 716 89.5
1999 95 391 759 94.87
2000 108 417 808 101.00
2001 124 467 884 110.50
2002 140 522 989 123.63
2003 150 574 1096 137.00
2004 160 - - -
- - -

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Weighted Moving Averages

Under this method, weights are assigned rationally to different items of the groups in a
moving manner. Each item is multiplied by its respective weight, and the moving average of
the group is obtained by dividing the weighted total of the group by the total of the weights.
Thus, the weighted moving average of a group is obtained by

𝑋1 𝑊1 + 𝑋2 𝑊2 + 𝑋3 𝑊3 𝑋𝑊
MA(w) = =
𝑊1 +𝑊2 +𝑊2 𝑊

Question 3:

Using the straight line method of least square, compute the trend values, and draw the line
of the best fit for the following series.

Day : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Sales : 20 30 40 20 20 60 80

Also, show the curve for the original data on the same graph paper..

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Solution (a) Computation of the trend values by the straight line method of least
square.

Days Sales XY X2 Trend Deviations

X Y (3) (4) values of items
(1) (2) Yc = from
7.14 + trend
8.93X values (Y
– Yc) (6)
1 20 20 1 16.07 3.93
2 30 60 4 25.00 5.00
2 40 120 9 33.93 6.07
4 20 80 16 42.86 -22.86
5 50 250 25 51.79 -1379
6 60 360 36 60.72 -0.72
7 80 560 49 69.65 10.35

Total 28 300 1450 140 N=7 0.00

Working

The trend value shown in the 5th column above have been found as under :

By the formula of straight line equation we have,

Yc = a + bX

Where, a and b are the two constants, the values of which are obtained by solving
simultaneously the following two normal equations (since 𝑋 ≠ 0).

𝑌 = Na + b 𝑋

𝑋𝑌 = a 𝑋 + b 𝑋 2

Substituting the respective values in the above we get,

300 = 7a + 28b

1450 = 28a + 140b

Multiplying the eqn (i) by 4 under the eqn (iii), and subtracting the same from the eqn (ii)
we get,

28a + 140b = 1450

− 28𝑎 + 112𝑏 = 1200

=
28𝑏 = 250
250
∴ b= = 8.93 approx.
28

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Putting the value of b in the eqn (i) by 4 under the eqn(i) we get,

7a + 28(8.93) = 300

or 7a = 300 – 250 = 50
50
∴ a= 7
= 7.14

Thus a = 7.14 and b =8.93

Putting the above values of a and b in the linear equation Yc = a + bX we get,

Yc = 7.14 + 8.93 X

Where, X = value of the time variable

Computation of the Trend values

Substituting the values of X successively in the linear equation, Yc= 7.14 + 8.93 X, we
compute the trend values as under:

When X = 1, Yc = 7.14 + 8.93 (1) = 16.07

When X = 2, Yc = 7.14 + 8.93 (2) = 25.00

When X = 3, Yc = 7.14 + 8.93 (3) = 33.93

When X = 4, Yc = 7.14 + 8.9 (4) = 42.86

When X = 5, Yc = 7.14 + 8.93(6) = 51.79

When X = 6, Yc = 7.14 + 8.93 (6) = 60.72

When X = 7, Yc = 7.14 + 8.93 (7) = 69.65

Alter

The above trend values could have been obtained by simply adding 8.93 (value of b i.e. rate
of change of the slope) successively to 7.14 (the value of the trend origin, a), as follows:

When X = 1, Yc = 7.14 + 8.93 (1) = 16.07

When X = 2, Yc = 7.14 + 8.93 (2) = 25.00

When X = 3, Yc = 7.14 + 8.93 (3) = 33.93

When X = 4, Yc = 7.14 + 8.9 (4) = 42.86

When X = 5, Yc = 7.14 + 8.93(6) = 51.79

When X = 6, Yc = 7.14 + 8.93 (6) = 60.72

When X = 7, Yc = 7.14 + 8.93 (7) = 69.65

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Note. From the last column of the table given, it may be observed that the sum of the
deviation of the original values from their corresponding trend values is nearly zero. The
slight difference is due to the error in approximation.

(b) Graphic representation of the trend values, and the original data values

Days

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