Morning Briefing

Thursday, January 9, 2014

Attock Petroleum Limited: A good BUY

Market Review
KSE 100 Index
KSE 30 Index
KMI 30 Index
All Share Index
Market Cap. (Rs bn)

Last
Change
26,341.08
81.51
19,478.32
41.09
44,303.19
135.81
19,600.26
54.86
6,358.48
17.74

Volume Leaders
LPCL
ANL
PIAA
KESC
JSCL

Close
9.45
8.73
9.63
6.19
9.96

KSE Statistics
Indices
All Share Index
KSE-30TM Index
KSE-100TM Index
Turnover
All Share Index
KSE-30TM Index
KSE-100TM Index

Volume
33,157,500
19,935,500
17,868,000
16,227,000
11,048,000

January 8, 2014
19,600.26
19,478.32
26,341.08

321,177,400
80,735,700
188,892,540

Board Meetings
Company
Allawasaya Tex. & Fin. Mills Ltd
Sanghar Sugar Mills Ltd
Johnson & Phillips
Ansari Sugar Mills Ltd
Amtex Ltd
Unilever Pakistan Foods Ltd

Date

Time

09-01-2014
09-01-2014
10-01-2014
10-01-2014
13-01-2014
05-03-2014

3:30
11:00
2:30
3:00
11:30
2:30

We continue with our liking of Attock Petroleum as the top pick in the Oil
Marketing Companies (OMC) sector as the company's earnings are expected to
grow by 17.1% in FY14. The scrip of the company is currently trading at a price
of Rs 509.23/share offering an upside potential of 18.5% from our Dec'14 target price of Rs 603/share. The earnings are anticipated to remain impressive
mainly on back of higher sales and margins as the company is continuously
increasing its number of outlets while the bottom line would also be supported
from by higher other income and decline in finance cost. The company is likely to earn a profit after taxation (PAT) of Rs 4,573 million (EPS: Rs 55.13) in
FY14 and Rs 4,673 million (EPS: Rs 56.34) in FY15 while in FY13 it earned a
PAT of Rs 3,907 million (EPS: Rs 47.10) in FY13.

Strong dividend payout history to continue

The company has a good track of distributing cash dividends to its share holders and we expect that the company would continue this trend moving forward
too on back of strong balance sheet it have. The company does not have debt
while it holds a huge amount
Dividend Payout
of Rs 9 million as cash and
cash equivalents. Therefore 100%
94%
91%
the company is in the position to announce further 90%
84%
80%
cash dividends where we 80%
anticipate a cash dividend of
Rs 50 per share in FY14 and 70%
Rs 53 per share in FY15. 60%
The
company
had
FY12A
FY13A
FY14E
FY15F
announced a cash dividend
of Rs 45 per share in FY13. Source: WE Research

Expanding network, low inventory levels; a plus point

The company is expanding its retail outlet at a rapid pace which is ultimately
bringing in more revenues to the company. Till the end of 1QFY14 the company had a total of 421 outlets. In addition to that the company also is unaffected
from inventory losses due to its low inventory levels which save it from occurring losses due to volatility in international oil prices.
FY13A
Profit after Taxation (Rs mn)
3,907
EPS (Rs)
47.10
Book value (Rs/share)
169.31
DPS (Rs)
45.00
P/E (x)
10.81
P/BV (x)
2.51
Dividend Yield (%)
7.4%
Payout (%)
79.6%
ROE (%)
27.8%
ROA (%)
13.0%
Source: Company Reports &WE Research

FY14E
4,573
55.13
168.61
50.00
9.24
3.02
9.8%
90.7%
32.7%
15.0%

FY15F
4,673
56.34
171.94
53.00
9.04
2.96
10.4%
94.1%
32.8%
14.8%

FY16F
4,775
57.57
174.51
55.00
8.85
2.92
10.8%
95.5%
33.0%
14.3%

Disclaimer: All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at
the time of publishing. However, we do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy & completeness and it is not intended to be an offer or a
solicitation to buy or sell any securities. WE Financial Services & its employees will not be responsible for the consequence of reliance upon any
opinion or statement herein or for any omission. All opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our judgment as of the date mentioned in
the report and are subject to change without notice.
For live markets, historical data, charts/graphs and investment/technical analysis tools, please visit our website www.weonline.biz

Morning Briefing
Thursday, January 9, 2014

Key Data

Pivot Analysis

Money Market

Company

CR

RSI

Buy 1

Buy 2

Sell 1

Sell 2

Pivot

T-Bills (3 Mths) 24-Dec-2013 9.96%

T-Bills (6 Mths) 24-Dec-2013 9.98%
T-Bills (12 Mths) 24-Dec-2013 8.98%
Discount Rate
13-Nov-2013 10.00%
Kibor (1 Mth)
08-Jan-2014 10.22%
Kibor (3 Mths)
08-Jan-2014 10.08%
Kibor (6 Mths)
08-Jan-2014 10.14%
Kibor (9 Mths)
08-Jan-2014 10.42%
Kibor (1 Yr)
08-Jan-2014 10.44%
P.I.B (3 Yrs)
08-Jan-2014 11.70%
P.I.B (5 Yrs)
08-Jan-2014 12.35%
P.I.B (10 Yrs)
08-Jan-2014 12.58%
P.I.B (15 Yrs)
08-Jan-2014 13.10%
P.I.B (20 Yrs)
08-Jan-2014 13.15%
P.I.B (30 Yrs)
08-Jan-2014 13.25%
Commodities
Crude Oil (brent)$/bbl
107.01
Crude Oil (WTI)$/bbl
93.59
Cotton $/lb
84.58
Gold $/ozs
1,228.95
Silver $/ozs
19.73
Malaysian Palm $
781
GOLD (PMEX) PKR
42,178
KHI Cotton 40Kg PKR
7,448

KSE 100 INDEX

26341.08
Attock Cement
142.72
Adamjee Insurance
37.78
Askari Bank
13.97
Azgard Nine
8.73
Attock Petroleum
509.23
Attock Refinery
219.70
Bank Al-Falah
27.60
BankIslami Pak
6.95
Bank.Of.Punjab
11.73
Faysal Bank
12.23
Fauji Cement
15.96
Fauji Fert Bin
44.65
Fauji Fertilizer
116.09
Habib Bank Ltd
167.13
Hub Power
64.26
ICI Pakistan
263.80
Lucky Cement
312.82
MCB Bank Ltd
290.68
Maple Leaf Cement
29.27
National Bank
58.13
Oil & Gas Dev. XD
286.13
P.S.O. XD
338.81
P.T.C.L.A
29.50
Sui North Gas
22.43

81.83
44.40
21.43
56.27
72.44
59.64
65.99
62.84
52.86
69.53
65.16
67.27
62.00
62.33
61.87
67.64
84.58
70.97
54.55
72.78
56.97
69.67
65.72
47.21
60.26

26,258
141.85
37.50
13.80
8.45
507.80
216.75
27.40
6.85
11.65
12.10
15.75
44.15
115.70
164.40
63.90
256.25
309.95
288.75
28.75
57.85
284.20
336.95
29.35
22.10

26,174
141.00
37.25
13.65
8.20
506.40
213.85
27.20
6.75
11.55
11.90
15.60
43.65
115.30
161.70
63.55
248.75
307.05
286.85
28.25
57.60
282.20
335.05
29.20
21.75

26,426
143.70
38.30
14.10
8.95
510.80
222.35
27.80
7.10
11.85
12.40
16.10
45.10
116.60
169.40
64.50
271.15
316.75
294.00
29.85
58.65
287.95
341.75
29.75
22.65

26,512
144.70
38.75
14.25
9.15
512.40
225.05
27.95
7.25
11.95
12.60
16.25
45.60
117.10
171.70
64.70
278.55
320.65
297.35
30.50
59.15
289.75
344.75
30.05
22.90

26,343
142.85
38.00
13.95
8.65
509.40
219.45
27.55
7.00
11.75
12.25
15.95
44.60
116.20
166.70
64.10
263.65
313.85
292.10
29.35
58.35
286.00
339.90
29.60
22.30

Portfolio Investment (U.S $ in million)

Yearly(Jul, 2013 up to 07-Jan-2014)

86.39

Monthly(Jan, 2014 up to 07-Jan-2014)

-2.61

Daily (07-Jan-2014)

-3.60

Total Portfolio Investment (27-Dec-2013)

4376

NCCPL (U.S $ in million)

FIPI (08-Jan-2014)
Local Companies (08-Jan-2014)
Banks / DFI (08-Jan-2014)
Mutual Funds (08-Jan-2014)
NBFC (08-Jan-2014)
Local Investors (08-Jan-2014)
Other Organization (08-Jan-2014)

1.11
-1.65
2.80
-2.71
0.38
1.39
-1.33

CR = Yesterday's Closing Rate; RSI = 14 day RSI.

RSI Indication: Less than 30 Indicate oversold position & Greater than 70 Indicate overbought
position.

GDR Update
Symbol
$.Price
MCB (1 GDR= 2 Shares)
4.30
OGDC (1 GDR= 10 Shares) 24.50
UBL (1 GDR= 4 Shares)
2.50
LUCK (1 GDR= 2 Shares)
6.00
HUBC (1 GDR= 25 Shares) 15.23

WE Financial Services
Corporate Office
506, Fifth Floor,
Karachi Stock Exchange Building,
Stock Exchange Road,
Karachi - 74000,
Pakistan
URL: www.we.com.pk

PKR/S
226.80
258.45
65.93
316.47
64.26

Book Closure
Company

From

To

D/B/R

Spot Date

AGM-EOGM

Siemens (Pak) Engineering 13-01-2014

Bank of Punjab
13-01-2014
Habib Sugar Mills
18-01-2014
Thal Industries Corp.
19-01-2014
Shakarganj Mills
21-01-2014
Adam Sugar Mills
23-01-2014
Shahtaj Sugar Mills
23-01-2014
Shahmurad Sugar Mills
23-01-2014
Al-Noor Sugar Mills
23-01-2014
Kohinoor Sugar Mills
24-01-2014
Dewan Sugar Mills
24-01-2014
Khairpur Sugar Mills
29-01-2014
Indications
# Extraordinary General Meeting

20-01-2014
20-01-2014
30-01-2014
25-01-2014
28-01-2014
31-01-2014
04-02-2014
03-02-2014
03-02-2014
31-01-2014
30-01-2014
05-02-2014

200(F)
47.39(R)
50
15
25,200(R)
15
5,5(B)
-

03-01-2014
03-01-2014
-

20-01-2014
30-01-2014
25-01-2014
28-01-2014
31-01-2014
30-01-2014
31-01-2014
31-01-2014
31-01-2014
30-01-2014
30-01-2014

Disclaimer: All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, we do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy & completeness and it is not intended to be an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. WE Financial Services & its employees will not be responsible for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement herein or for any omission.
All opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our judgment as of the date mentioned in the report and are subject to change without notice.
For live markets, historical data, charts/graphs and investment/technical analysis tools, please visit our website www.weonline.biz