INDONESIA 2050

For an analysis of the prospects for long-term development of Indonesia, three main scenarios
were identified:
"Indonesia - ASEAN Leader. This scenario assumes an economic growth in Indonesia
for a long period of time, as a result of which the country will become a significant economic,
technological and military leader of the region. Other ASEAN states will use the growth of
Indonesian influence to counterbalance Chinese and other non-regional players claims for
dominance. Thus Indonesia through a combination of different aspects of leadership, will become
an independent regional power, playing an independent role in international economic and
political relations. At the same time it will be forced to balance between the West, China and
India, which are forces external to the ASEAN region, but fighting for influence in ASEAN
region.
"Together with China" and Disputes with China. Indonesia effectively integrates
into the geopolitical orbit of China, which becomes a formidable economic alliance. Orientation
towards China provides economic ties with the new power center and provides external security.
With Indonesia preoccupied by internal problems of development, regional leadership in ASEAN
is not the goal of its foreign policy. Friendly relations with China provide a better background for
socio-economic development. On the other hand, Chinas rise and increasing investment and
intervention in Indonesia may also lead to a more destructive relationship; Indonesia and Chinas
historic issues and ethnic tensions may overcome potential cooperation.
"Islamic revival in Indonesia. Successful economic development is accompanied by an
increase of the importance of identity issues (in cultural and religious terms) for a significant
portion of the population and elite. In these circumstances, political forces associated with
Islamic traditionalism gain political power. Indonesia positions itself as an Islamic state in
domestic and foreign policy issues. The country actively cooperates with other Islamic states
vying for leadership of the Islamic world. The integrity of ASEAN and its regional cohesion are
not the main objectives of the foreign policy for Indonesia. Along with Malaysia, Turkey, Iran,
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain and Qatar, it forms an informal community of successful
Islamic states.

Justification
"Indonesia - ASEAN Leader
The most likely scenario. This conclusion is based on the following facts:
1. Political stability and economic growth. Even a decade ago, a number of analysts
heralded the development of separatist tendencies (various groups vying for democratic reform
and autonomy) and the "balkanization" of Indonesia. In 2001, Indonesia has made efforts to
decentralize certain management and transfer more powers to local authorities. Today we can
speak about political stability in the country: for the fourth time in a row there have been peaceful
and successful elections in the legislative and executive bodies, which confirmed the leadership
of the President Joko Widodo.
2. Projections of Economic Development. Over the past five decades, the Indonesian
economy had experienced a substantial structural change: agriculture has ceased to dominate the
economy, and nowadays the basis of growth are industry and services. In accordance with the law
5 of 2004, the country adopted a long-term development plan - for 2005-2025 years. According
to the plan, by 2025 the proportion of people living below the poverty line should be reduced and
be no more than 5% of the total population and GDP per capita is expected to be about 1425015500 US dollars. With the ambitious plan Indonesia will be among the ten largest economies in
the world, and its GDP by 2025 will reach 4-4.5 Trill. Dollars. Transnational auditing company
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in 2013 presented new growth forecasts for the leading countries
in the world until 2050, and it is claimed that Indonesia will be the eighth economy in the world
with a GDP of 6.346 trillion. Dollars (PPP 2011) in 2050.
3. Indonesia already plays a leading role in ASEAN. Indonesia plays an increasingly
important role in global processes. It is the only representative of Southeast Asia in the G20.
Indonesia is an active participant of APEC - Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum - and its
chairman in 2013. During its presidency in APEC, Indonesia initiated programs for the
development of infrastructure in the Asia-Pacific region. Indonesia was using its chairmanship to
strengthen its position at the international level, and to prepare a program for long-term growth
strategy comprising six principles: infrastructure development, small and medium business,
tourism, "green" technologies, management of agriculture and marine resources - the "blue
economy".
4. Negative Factors. Completely certainly in the first scenario is difficult due to a number

of negative factors. Among them several factors of internal nature.

First of all - it is a high degree of inequality in income distribution. There is a difference
between the formal average statistical indicators and reality: 43000 richest Indonesians (only
0.02% of Indonesia's population) own 25% of the GDP of Indonesia. This points to the enormous
concentration of wealth within a small elite. There are estimates that the gap in income
distribution will only increase in the foreseeable future. Another factor crucial for Indonesia's
economy is underdeveloped infrastructure.
The bottleneck" of the economy is the quality of the workforce in the country. The cost
of labor in Indonesia is the lowest among not only the ASEAN countries, but also in comparison
with China and India. With a poor educational infrastructure and a low Human Development
rating, Indonesia has several hurdles in improving its workforce. But investment in education and
other social initiatives are improving this deficit. Competition from other major economies in the
region, especially China, may put Indonesia in a difficult position to compete.
Together with China"
A probability of the second scenario is described far below. Such conclusion can be made
if to take into consideration following factors.
1. Chinas aggressive attack on southern neighbors for centuries. Since the doctrine of
"universal monarchy," which indicated the global power of the Chinese emperor, the countries of
Southeast Asia were considered to be Chinas area of influence. This attitude is reflected in
centuries of predatory wars and the increment of the Chinese territory on the south and southwesterly direction, with fierce military and ideological resistance from the Southeast. The
activation of the Chinese Communist Party led to the consolidation of Southeast Asian countries
on anti-China platform in the first half of the 1960s and with the support of the United States
ASEAN8 was created 1967. The desire of China to capture and explore the Paracel and Spratly
Islands in military way aroused strong resistance from Indonesia, Vietnam and other Southeast
Asian countries. China rejects use of force, establishes diplomatic relations with the countries of
Southeast Asia, and offers a broad program of economic cooperation in 1970-80s. It was striving
to establish a joint committee for cooperation with Southeast Asian countries in 1997. China
revises its policy: it is necessary to be more active in the formation of the regional situation. New
regional course includes four initiatives: intensive participation in regional organizations, the
establishment of "strategic partnership", the deepening of bilateral relations, the expansion of

regional economic ties and the reduction of mistrust and anxiety in the security sphere. Such
activity allowed China to stabilize relations with all countries of Southeast Asia during 19982008. On the background of anti-Western ideas, China has managed to promote the idea of
creating an independent economic space from the United States and the West of the East Asian,
which led to the signing of ACFTA. China has dramatically increased trade relations with almost
constant trade surplus, allowed to invest outside capital, using government loans and etc. in order
to achieve dominance in the region of Southeast Asia
2. The dominance of the Chinese capital in the economy of Indonesia is a constant source
of anti-Chinese sentiment. China significantly strengthens its economic positions in Indonesia,
especially in small and medium-sized businesses, which is explained by the presence of a large
Chinese Diasporas. Chinese people are the most numerous among non-indigenous people of
Indonesia, who are living in almost all regions of the country, mainly in large cities. Chinese
fortune greatly sincreased during the golden years of the Asian boom in the 1980s and 1990s. By
1998, 3% of the Chinese population owned more than three-quarters of the private wealth in
Indonesia. However, with the growth of China's economic influence, an anti-Chinese sentiment
was also increasing. For many decades, sporadic outbreaks of violence against Chinese people
and the riots were frequent, especially in times of severe economic hardship in the country.
3. The new geopolitical situation - increasing competition for dominance in Southeast
Asia between the US and China. With the increase of China's economic influence in the region
and its attempts to assert its dominance in the South China Sea, a new geopolitical situation was
established. US is starting to play a more active role in the region, which includes the support of
regional cooperation in the Asia-Pacific structures. Conditions when the South China Sea have
been an arena of tension and conflict changed and policies of ASEAN countries headed for
multilateral cooperation, involving the region a variety of participants.

In the second half of

2009 China, for various reasons worsened relations with almost all countries in Southeast Asia,
its image fell sharply, and the relationship had been described as "hot economics, cold politics."
China's reluctance to negotiate on the issue on a multilateral basis in accordance with the
requirements of the United Nations has caused a huge irritation. It also stimulates approaches of
Southeast Asian countries to the United States in order to create a balance in the region's strategic
forces.
Republic of Indonesia and Peoples Republic of China Disputes

The rapid economic development of the Peoples Republic of China have led that country
into a new Super Power state in the world. The economic policy of the Peoples Republic of
China as one belt, one road has drawn several countries in the world into a mistrust. And it is
regarding Peoples Republic of China firmly claimed that Taiwan and the region surround the
Spartly Islands in the South China Sea, are Chinas sovereignty . Obviously, it has led to a new
level of tension in the region. Not to mention, in the past the Chinese were very aggressive
launched an invasion towards Asian countries, either in the Mogul empire or other Chinese
Dynasty . In 1292 before the Ducth colonization in Indonesia, Chinas empire sent their warships
to Indonesia to conquer Indonesian Singosari regime. However because of the resistance of one
of the royal Raden Wijaya in Indonesia, the Chinese troops failed to occupy Indonesia. As the
growing the role of Peoples Republic of China in the region and the development of the Chinas
military is not transparency enough to the world community (As feared by United State of
America) and also includes the aggressiveness of Chinas government in military exercises in
various regions, then the government of Peoples Republic of China will be a pressure force in
the region if its interest are threatened.
Meanwhile, in term of population protection of Chinese, which is described on
dualcitizenship.com, China government has a policy of citizens based on bloodline, assume all
Chinese people abroad as the Chinese population. There is strong indicator that Chinese economy
is also supported by the illegal funds sent by the Chinese-overseas and vice-versa, including in
Indonesia. So with such a policy will give a possibility to Chinese people hands double
citizenship.
As the explanation above there is a relation towards what is happening in Indonesia today,
which the clash or feud in between Indonesian indigenous and Chinese ethnic in Indonesia is still
quite common, neither in local-society, business nor political level. For instance: discrimination
in the company that controlled by Chinese ethnic in Indonesia nowadays is still popular. This is
compounded by the classification that made by the Chinese ethnic itself, are reluctant smelling
with the Indonesian indigenous. So it causes a bad-countermeasure from the Indonesian native
towards the Chinese ethnic in Indonesia. In addition, the suspicions among the Indonesian natives
towards the Chinese ethnic or the other way around is still on the common ground in Indonesia .
So, there is a possibility of re-cleaning of Chinese ethnic in Indonesia, such as in 1965 and the

impingement indigenous anger towards Chinese ethnic in 1998.

Pic: Chinas shipment route

It can be concluded that if any conflict or unrest between Indonesian indigenous and
Chinese ethnic, as happened in Indonesia because of the inequality sentiment in terms of
economic and also daily life in these days. Then it is very likely the China government will give a
protection to their ethnic, which is mostly Chinese ethnic in Indonesia has a bloodline to Peoples
Republic of China, even-though they are has Indonesian citizen. In addition, China government is
possible to conduct this act since the Chinas position in the world as a superpower state. If this
prediction is up in the air, surely it will arise another level of conflicts between Indonesia and the
Peoples Republic of Indonesia. The conflict could be break out into open warfare when the
Chinas government maintains its other interests. Such as Chinas shipping tanker route through
the Malacca strait, and another straits in Indonesia will be disrupted because of instability in
Indonesia. As we know Indonesia is the crossroad for the Shipping-lines from Pacific to Indian,
so China depends on some strategic straits in Indonesia to their own trade route.

"Indonesia's Islamic revival"

Last scenario is highly unlikely. Indonesia is a secular state, the country's constitution guarantees
freedom of religion. According to the legislation adopted in 1965, a special status, which
presupposes support and protection of the state, given to the country's major religions - Islam,

Protestantism, Catholicism, Hinduism, Buddhism and Confucianism - with the caveat about the
admissibility of the existence of other faiths.
At the end of the XX century two processes increased: Islamisation and Democratization.
But the Islamization of the country (along with the law of Sharia) is always seen in Indonesia as
an attack on the unity of the country and call for separatism. Political parties, supporters of
Islamisation of the country, have never been able to get a majority of votes in the political history
of Indonesia. Election of 1999 showed that support for Islamic parties was less than 15%.

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