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Politics Disadvantage Impact Supplement - Gonzaga 2013
Politics Disadvantage Impact Supplement - Gonzaga 2013
Politics Disadvantage Impact Supplement - Gonzaga 2013
1NC
Uniqueness
Pass Now
Will pass bipartisan support now
Murphy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce International Affairs vice president, 6-14-13
[John G., He is responsible for representing the Chamber before the administration, Congress, and foreign
officials as he directs advocacy efforts to open international markets for U.S. exports and investment, Free
Enterprise, Solve the Trade Puzzle with Trade Promotion Authority,
http://www.freeenterprise.com/international/solve-trade-puzzle-trade-promotion-authority?
utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=sitewide_feed&utm_source=0, accessed 7-14-13, AFB]
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-MT) wants a bipartisan bill introduced as
soon as possible. His colleague, Ranking Member Orrin Hatch (R-UT) has called it a top priority for
years. Staff to House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dave Camp (R-MI) and Ranking
Member Sander Levin (D-MI) have been working with their Senate counterparts for weeks to
produce such a bill.
Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) may be the sleeper bipartisan priority of the 113th Congress.
Driving home this point, Roll Call on June 13 published an insightful column by Senators Rob Portman
(R-OH) and Maria Cantwell (D-WA) calling TPA A Bipartisan Opportunity for Jobs:
From the Buckeye State to the Evergreen State, Americans want their elected officials to focus on
supporting economic growth. And, wouldnt it be nice if Democrats and Republicans worked
together for a change?
Trade Promotion Authority offers us exactly this opportunity: a bipartisan economic initiative that
will support American job creation and keep our nation competitive in the global economy while
not costing taxpayers any money.
We were pleased to hear the presidents recent nominee to the post of U.S. trade representative,
Mike Froman, embrace TPA, a power requested by every president since Franklin D. Roosevelt,
in his Finance Committee confirmation hearing. It seems that the president who included a
request for TPA in his 2013 trade agenda is serious about pursuing new trade agreements.
Thats good news for our economy.
Vote Coming
Tough vote coming
Heritage Foundation press release, 7-13-13
[US Official News, Washington: An Investment Treaty with China: Dont Hold Your Breath, Lexis,
accessed 7-13-13]
Problem #3 with a BIT is American politics. The main China issues that the U.S. Congress focuses on
the bilateral trade deficit, currency manipulation, and other trade distortionsare not likely to be
addressed in an investment treaty. Further, Congress does not trust China to implement its pledges. China
is not just any economic partner. A U.S.China BIT is going to be debatedhotly.
The Senate already faces politically painful votes on Trade Promotion Authority (probably this
year), the Trans-Pacific Partnership (probably next year), and, the Trans-Atlantic Partnership
(possibly 2015). It would be very dubious politics to jump China ahead of American friends in the trade
queue. But multiple political bloodlettings in a single year is almost as difficult to see as a pro-China vote
during the 2016 presidential campaign.
Vote soon
Riley, Heritage Foundation Trade Policy senior policy analyst, 7-12-13
[Bryan, Heritage Blogs, Trade Promotion Authority Should Mean Authority to Promote TradePeriod,
http://blog.heritage.org/2013/07/12/trade-promotion-authority-should-mean-authority-to-promote-tradeperiod/, accessed 7-13-13, AFB]
Theres a good chance Congress will consider legislation this summer to extend trade promotion
authority (TPA) to President Obama. If it does, lawmakers should pay especially close attention to the
wording of the bill.
TPA is the legislative vehicle that allows the President to negotiate with other countries on beneficial
trade agreements. The purpose of trade promotion authority is, obviously, to promote trade. If properly
designed, TPA is an effective way to expand trade and economic freedom. However, a poorly worded
TPA bill could allow implementing legislation for future trade agreements to be used for other purposes.
For example, under the last extension of TPA, Congress agreed to consider legislation that implemented
trade agreements negotiated by the President on an up-or-down vote. This implementing legislation could
include changes in laws that were necessary or appropriate to implement such trade agreement or
agreements, either repealing or amending existing laws or providing new statutory authority.
When the South KoreaU.S. free trade agreement (KORUS) came up for a vote two years ago, the
Obama Administration used this language as justification to try to attach Trade Adjustment Assistance
(TAA)which provides federal aid to those supposedly hurt by tradeto the implementing legislation
for KORUS. At the time, TAA supporters argued that such assistance was necessary and appropriate.
Trade expert Phil Levy observed at the time that TPA was hard to come by even in the best of
circumstances. What chance would it have now, if it is interpreted as giving any White House the
right to attach controversial and unrelated spending measures in a protected way?
This is exactly why it is important to clarify how TPA works. Every U.S. President should have the
authority to negotiate beneficial trade agreements. However, TPA was never intended to be a blank check.
Congress should make it clear that future trade agreements submitted for implementation under TPA
cannot be hijacked as a vehicle on which to attach extraneous provisions.
AT No Obama Push
Obama making serious push on trade new USTR proves
Ichniowski, Engineering News-Record, 7-1-13
[Tom, New USTR Froman Has Busy Agenda Ahead, p. 1, Lexis, accessed 7-13-13, AFB]
As former White House aide Michael Froman begins his new job as U.S. trade representative, he
faces a full agenda, including two major multilateral trade negotiations that will have an impact on
U.S. construction-equipment makers and companies in a wide range of other industries.
Froman, who was sworn in as U.S. trade representative (USTR) on June 21, had been assistant to the
president and deputy national security adviser for international economic affairs. The Senate confirmed
him two days earlier, by a strong 93-4 vote.
Bill Lane, Caterpillar Inc. senior director for global government affairs, says, We may be about to
embark on the most ambitious trade agenda since the early 1990s, when we did the [General
Agreement on Tariffs and Trade] Uruguay Round and the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Among the priorities facing Froman and his USTR team are trade talks with the European Union
that are set to begin on July 8 in Washington, D.C.
Nick Yaksich, Association of Equipment Manufacturers vice president for government and industry
relations, says the EU negotiations will be critical for U.S. heavy-equipment manufacturers.
Yaksich says technical issues will be particularly important topics, such as the harmonization of
equipment standards and the development of common certification benchmarks between the two sides.
Lane says U.S. trade barriers in Europe tend to be low, but the trade is so large that even removing low
trade barriers ? will have an important impact on both economies. Overall U.S. exports to the EU last year
totaled $458 billion, making it the countrys largest export market, according to the White House.
Tariffs could be an important topic in trade talks. Lane notes that many European countries tariffs on
U.S.-made heavy construction equipment are zero, but tariffs are imposed on U.S.-produced engines and
other components, such as bearings. Those factors combine to make U.S. heavy-equipment makers
average tariffs in Europe about 2%, he says.
Though 2% may seem small, Lane says Caterpillar has a long-standing goal that, worldwide, we would
like to be in a situation where none of our customers have to pay an extra tax to buy our products. In this
case, an extra tax is tariffs.
The other important negotiations are the ongoing Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks among the
U.S., other North American countries and Asian nations. The U.S. joined the TPP negotiations in
2009, and, so far, the talks have gone through 17 rounds.
Lane says many countries involved in the TPP talks have eliminated tariffs on heavy equipment. He says
that, for Caterpillar, one of the biggest benefits of those negotiations is it gives us a chance to modernize
NAFTA.
He says that, for example, NAFTA has a very arcane rule of origin, which is a yardstick for determining
whether a product, including components that may be produced in other countries, can be classified for
trade-regulation purposes as made in the U.S.
More broadly, Lane says, for U.S. trade officials, the key to everything that lies ahead is having
Congress provide the president with trade promotion authority (TPA). That mechanism, formerly
called fast track authority, gives the administration the ability to negotiate trade deals and have Congress
review them quickly.
TPA expired in 2007. Froman said in testimony prepared for his June 6 confirmation hearing before the
Senate Finance Committee that he would engage with Congress to renew TPA. He added, TPA is a critical
tool. I look forward to working with you to craft a bill that achieves our shared goals.
AT Immigration
Sequencing solves no immigration reform until the fall
Kuhnhenn, Associated Press, 7-13-13
[Jim, Real Clear Politics, Immigration Mired, Political Wins Elude Obama in 2nd Term,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/07/13/immigration_mired_political_wins_elude_obama_in
_2nd_term_119201.html, accessed 7-13-13, AFB]
WASHINGTON (AP) -- A dramatic tax-raising deal last New Year's looked like it might be a
breakthrough, signaling improved second-term relations between newly re-elected President Barack
Obama and a divided Congress. At least that's what the White House hoped.
But six months later, growing uncertainty over a sweeping immigration overhaul measure has
dimmed expectations for a big summertime achievement and left Obama still in search of a
marquee legislative accomplishment to mark his second four years.
His advisers now concede that their best shot at changing the immigration system might come in the
fall, after lawmakers return from their August recess. But that could be a long shot during a period
already crowded with other issues.
AT Gridlock
Not all gridlock, all the time
Kuhnhenn, Associated Press, 7-13-13
[Jim, Real Clear Politics, Immigration Mired, Political Wins Elude Obama in 2nd Term,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/07/13/immigration_mired_political_wins_elude_obama_in
_2nd_term_119201.html, accessed 7-13-13, AFB]
To be sure, the legislative gridlock has occasionally eased. In February, Republican leaders allowed
an expansion to the Violence Against Women Act by extending domestic violence protections to gays,
lesbians and transsexuals. And Republicans and Democrats are still trying to strike a deal that would
lower interest rates on student loans.
AT Food Stamps
Food stamps fight will backfire on GOP
Parker, Washington Post columnist, 7-14-13
[Kathleen, Washington Post, Principled self-destruction, p. A19, Lexis, accessed 7-15-13, AFB]
Republicans seem to be adopting the self-immolation tactics of principled martyrs.
Of course, principled or not, you're still dead in the end.
At this stage in the second term of the president they couldn't defeat, Republicans seem more like
stubborn children refusing to come out of their rooms for supper, even though the alternative is
going to bed hungry.
This simile is unavoidable in light of the House's passage of a farm bill without any provision for
food stamps - the first in 40 years. The move prompted fantastic outrage from Democrats, notably
Rep. Corrine Brown (Fla.), who shrieked: "Mitt Romney was right: You all do not care about the 47
percent. Shame on you!"
Histrionics aside, whether the fact that something has been done a certain way for 40 years is an argument
for repeating the same bears a bit of scrutiny. Republicans argued that they'd prefer to deal with
agricultural issues in one bill without the leverage of a welfare program.
These two programs historically were tied together in the spirit of - watch out now - compromise. And,
though food stamps certainly will be funded, probably at current levels, through some other vehicle,
Republicans managed to create yet another partisan problem where none existed and opened themselves
up for gratuitous criticism.
Was this really the right fight at the right time?
The wrong time would be in the midst of the politically life-altering debate on immigration reform.
Again, congressional Republicans want to parse reform in pieces, excluding the 11 million or so
immigrants here illegally, instead of dealing with reform comprehensively, as the Senate has done - and as
most Americans think necessary.
Republicans do have a point, in theory. Comprehensive bills are cumbersome and difficult to enforce.
Democrats love great big lumbering programs because they (a) often do great good, at least in the short
term; and (b) create great big self-sustaining bureaucracies that are, by nature, self-propagating and attract
large constituencies of voters. This latter is Republicans' chief objection.
But 90 percent of life is picking your battles, and congressional Republicans keep picking the wrong
ones. This is not true of all. Former Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) has joined
Luis V. Gutierrez (D-Ill.) to push comprehensive immigration reform.
This is also not to say that Democrats have it all right. Both sides are often dishonest and usually selfserving. Democrats are maddeningly disingenuous when they say Republicans are anti- immigrant - and
then lecture us about how this country was built by immigrants.
True, because the entire planet was "built" by immigrants. But why do immigrants want to come
specifically to the United States? Not only for jobs, education and opportunity but also because we are a
nation of laws. Playing by the rules and waiting one's turn are also part of our immigrant legacy.
Likewise, Republicans are not shooting straight when they insist that the Senate bill's path to citizenship
is de facto amnesty. As paths go, it's a 13-year pilgrimage along a precipice lined with bramble bushes taxes, fines and various burning hoops through which one must leap in order to stand in line. Hardly rosepetal strewn.
To the real point, many Republicans fear that allowing 11 million immigrants to become citizens
essentially means 11 million more Democrats. This outcome wasn't preordained, but given the tenor of
recent debate, their fears are probably justified.
Internal Link
Key to Trade
TPAs key to growth and trade, and completing trade agreements
US Chamber of Commerce 13
[2013, Why Does America Need Trade Promotion Authority (TPA)?,
http://www.uschamber.com/international/why-does-america-need-trade-promotion-authority-tpa,
accessed: 7/8/13, ML]
Why Does America Need Trade Promotion Authority (TPA)?
Reason 1: Trade Supports Growth and Jobs
Outside our borders are markets that represent 80% of the worlds purchasing power, 92% of its
economic growth, and 95% of its consumers.
Trade already supports 38 million American jobs
One in three manufacturing jobs depends on exports, and one in three acres on American
farms is planted for export.
U.S. services exports top $600 billion, leading the world rankings.
Reason 2: Trade is Vital to Small Business
More than 97% of the 300,000 U.S. companies that export their products are small and
medium-sized companies.
Small firms account for more than one-third of all U.S. merchandise exports.
Reason 3: Trade Agreements Level the Playing Field
Many countries slap tariffs on U.S. exports that are ten or twenty times as high as our own,
and a web of non-tariff barriers overseas often shut out U.S. goods and services.
Trade agreements can tear down those barriers. Thats why U.S. exports to new free-trade
agreement (FTA) partners have grown on average four times as rapidly in the period
following an agreements entry-into-force as U.S. exports globally.
The expansion in trade spurred by FTAs sustains more than five million American jobs.
While they represent just 10% of global GDP, Americas 20 FTA partners buy nearly half of
U.S. exports.
The U.S. has a trade surplus with its 20 FTA partners in manufactures, services, and
agricultural products.
Reason 4: We Can Do More to Seize the Benefits of Trade
To extend these benefits, the U.S. has embarked on a bold new trade agenda that includes
negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, with 11 other Asia-Pacific nations;
The Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, with the European Union; and
The Trade in Services Agreement, with nearly 50 other countries.
Reason 5: To Do Any of the Above, America Needs TPA
But to finalize any of these agreements, Congress must approve Trade Promotion Authority
(TPA).
The Constitution gives Congress authority to regulate international trade, but it gives the
President authority to negotiate with foreign governments.
TPA builds on this constitutional partnership by requiring the executive branch to consult
extensively with Congress during negotiations while assuring U.S. trading partners that
agreements will receive an up-or-down vote.
Key to Jobs
TPA renewal increases imports critical to jobs and the manufacturing industry
Riley, Heritage Foundation Trade Policy senior policy analyst, & Kim, Heritage
Foundation Senior Policy Analyst, 13
[Bryan and Anthony B, Heritage Foundation, 4/16/13, Advancing Trade Freedom: Key Objective of
Trade Promotion Authority Renewal, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/04/advancing-tradefreedom-key-objective-of-trade-promotion-authority-renewal, accessed: 7/8/13, ML]
The TPA renewal debate in Congress should reflect the fact that both exports and imports are jobsupporting activities. In other words, the debate should focus on how to deliver greater trade
freedom to Americans that advances the benefits of trade in both directions.
It is a common misperception that importing goods to America comes at the cost of American jobs.
In fact, imports contribute to job creation on a large scale. The increased economic activity associated
with every stage of the import process helps support millions of jobs in the U.S. As shown by a recent
Heritage Foundation study, for instance, over half a million American jobsin fields such as
transportation, wholesale, retail, construction, and financeare supported by imports of clothes and
toys from China alone.[4]
Highlighting the dynamic and value-adding role played by imports in the U.S. economy, an empirical
analysis published in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review presents strong evidence that
policies to bolster exports at the expense of imports would significantly harm U.S. manufacturing,
adding that imports have played a critical positive role in boosting manufacturing output in the
United Statesmuch more so, in fact, than exports.[5] Indeed, intermediate goods imports and
capital goods imports are the lifeblood of U.S. manufacturing. Without them, manufacturing output
is impossible.
AT Pass Later
Delay bad risks failure to pass, risking negotiations
Inside U.S. Trade, 6-21-13
[Freshmen House Dems Express Opposition To TPA Bill, Staff Efforts Slow, Lexis, AFB]
The longer it takes to develop the bill, the harder it may be to move. In the fall, Congress will likely
be preoccupied with extending the debt ceiling and reducing the budget deficit. The two are not
formally linked but congressional Republicans will almost certainly link them politically.
Following the June 19 Senate confirmation of U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman, Finance
Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-MT) said in a statement he is "looking forward to working with
[Froman] to get Trade Promotion Authority done." He said it will "lay the groundwork for a successful
trade agenda," along with Trade Adjustment Assistance.
Finance Committee Ranking Member Orrin Hatch (R-UT) also stressed the need for White House
engagement on fast-track in a June 17 press release praising the launch of trade talks between the U.S.
and the EU.
"While I am pleased the President is formally launching negotiations today, it ultimately won't matter
unless these negotiations can be concluded and enacted into law," Hatch argued. "That is why it is
imperative that the President show some real leadership on trade and begin working with Congress
in earnest to renew Trade Promotion Authority (TPA). Without TPA, it is very hard to see how we
can negotiate a strong trade agreement with Europe, and with the Pacific Rim nations through the
Trans-Pacific Partnership."
In response to the announcement on the launch of the U.S.-EU trade agreement, Ways and Means
Chairman Dave Camp (R-MI) issued a strong statement of support, and linked the ability of U.S.
negotiators to get a good deal to renewing fast-track negotiating authority.
In a June 17 press release with Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee Chairman Devin Nunes (R-CA), he
noted the importance of removing tariff, non-tariff and regulatory barriers to U.S. exports and investment.
"Tackling these barriers requires clear and effective negotiating objectives, and therefore I welcome the
President's request for Trade Promotion Authority," Camp said. "Developing bipartisan Trade
Promotion Authority is a vital and necessary tool to ensuring the success of these negotiations."
Aff Answers
Uniqueness Answers
Non-Unique Immigration
Immigration crushes Obamas agenda
Kuhnhenn, Associated Press, 7-13-13
[Jim, Real Clear Politics, Immigration Mired, Political Wins Elude Obama in 2nd Term,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/07/13/immigration_mired_political_wins_elude_obama_in
_2nd_term_119201.html, accessed 7-13-13, AFB]
Still, White House aides had argued that a solid bipartisan vote on immigration in the Senate would
give the legislation momentum through the House. Two weeks ago, at a news conference in South
Africa, Obama called on the House to act before the August recess. "Now is the time," he declared.
House Republicans ignored him, saying they would not take up the Senate bill and would instead
tackle immigration in a piecemeal way. "I'm much more concerned about doing it right than I am
in meeting some deadline," House Speaker John Boehner said.
That decision put a sizable question mark over one of Obama's biggest second-term priorities.
"This is going to be a tougher fight than people had anticipated," said Simon Rosenberg, president
of NDN, a Democratic-leaning Washington think tank and a longtime advocate of overhauling
immigration laws. "It could go on for six months; it could go on for the next couple of years."
Some Obama allies fear that failure to win on immigration - an issue many believed was ripe for
change after last year's elections - will simply embolden his opponents. Cleaver, a Missouri
Democrat, said it "could conceivably wound the president in a way that would make the next three
years move very, very slowly and painfully."
Impact Answers
AT EU Trade Agreement
Double bind either it wont pass or if it does theres no real impact
Dadush, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace International Economics
Program Director, 13
(Uri, 3-18-13, Dont Buy the Hype on the Transatlantic Trade Deal,
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2013/03/18/don-t-buy-hype-on-transatlantic-trade-deal/frd5, accessed
6-25-13)
But in a QandA, Uri Dadush, former director of international trade at the World Bank, warns that
expectations are dangerously high. Reaching an agreement is likely to take much longer and
produce significantly smaller gains than the optimistic calculations currently suggest. Beyond
dashed expectations, the launch of these negotiations probably marks the final blow against the
moribund Doha round of global trade talks.
No agreement Japan literally is only just joining the talks, and they have an
agenda
Miyazaki, Japan News, 7-9-13
[Takao, Govt to form strategy after July TPP talks
http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0000379732, accessed 7-15-13, AFB]
The government plans to send a team of about 100 people to this months 18th round of TransPacific Partnership negotiations, but with only three days for Japan to take part in the talks, its
primary objective is understanding the lay of the land.
The talks will begin Monday in Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia, and wrap up July 25. U.S. government
procedures to approve Japans participation are set to end on the afternoon of July 23.
The government has decided not to introduce concrete arguments on maintaining tariffs for rice
and other agricultural products during these three days, when it would be allowed to join the
discussions.
Hoping to expand exports of automobiles and other goods through the TPP negotiations, the government
intends to demand tariffs be repealed for industrial products.
The Liberal Democratic Party and other players have designated five important agricultural
products for which they particularly want to preserve tariffs: rice, wheat, beef and pork, dairy
products, and sweetener crops such as sugar cane. But without information on the progress of
negotiations, the government will not know what bargaining chips it holds. It has therefore decided
to focus this time on gathering information that has not yet been disclosed to parties besides the United
States, Australia and the other nine nations taking part in the talks.
July 23 will be the first time for Japan to lay eyes on a summary of the negotiations that is several
thousand pages long. The nation is scheduled to be the focus of the final day of talks, at which time the
other countries will explain the state of negotiations so far.