[NATURAL GAS ]

EUROPEAN GAS DAILY

www.platts.com

Volume 20 / Issue 85 / May 5, 2015

Market Highlights

Market Commentary

Spanish LNG sendout up 31% year to date

NBP spot falls late as BBL pipeline ramps up

Reloads

Near-term UK wholesale natural gas prices eased Friday

afternoon as the system flipped long late as imports from the
Netherlands through the BBL pipeline ramped up after the system
had been short in the morning, with the prompt and curve posting
mild losses on the day, in line with spot and oil prices.
Imports via the BBL pipeline were running at 25 million cu
m/d just before the close after having been at zero until about
14:00, flipping the gas system long as physical flows of 240

slide amid healthy Asia-Pacific inventories

demand rises as renewables output falls
Net gas imports from France weaken
Domestic

(continued on page 2)

Spains April demand up 10% to 23.6 TWh. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Maintenance at Rough rescheduled: operator . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
NBP, TTF ICE volumes down sharply in April. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Fuel Switching Snapshot. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3
3
4
5

TTF time spreads

26

(continued on page 8)

Platts European gas midpoints, May 1, 2015

(Eur/MWh)

Day ahead

Summer-15

Winter-15

24

p/th

Eur/MWh

43.50
41.60

20.08
19.21

6.61
6.32

-3.76

Day ahead

43.78

20.20

6.65

-3.12

June

43.34

20.00

6.58

-3.15

43.00
43.10

19.85
19.90

6.53
6.55

-2.38

44.10
43.34

20.35
20.00

6.70
6.58

-2.40

UK NBP
Day ahead
June

22

-5.13

Dutch TTF

20
18
Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15
Apr-15
(Trade date)

Source: Platts

Belgian Zeebrugge
Day ahead
June

NCG-TTF location spreads

0.5

$/MMBtu % change D-1

-0.92

French PEG Nord

(Eur/MWh)
Month ahead

Season ahead

0.4

Day ahead
June

-3.15

French PEG Sud/TRS*

0.3
0.2
0.1

Day ahead

44.97

20.75

6.83

-1.89

June

44.97

20.75

6.83

-2.58

Day ahead

44.21

20.40

6.71

-3.32

June

43.78

20.20

6.65

-2.65

German GASPOOL

0.0
Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Source: Platts

Mar-15
Apr-15
(Trade date)

NetConnect Germany

Coal Switching Price Indicator vs NBP month ahead

60

(p/th)

Day ahead

44.10

20.35

6.70

-2.86

June

43.45

20.05

6.60

-2.91

Day ahead

45.19

20.85

6.86

-0.71

June

45.08

20.80

6.84

-0.48

Day ahead

46.38

21.40

7.04

-1.83

June

46.60

21.50

7.08

-2.71

Austrian CEGH VTP

50
40

Italian PSV

30
UK CSPI 45% (CPS)
20
22-Dec 09-Jan
Source: Platts

UK CSPI 50% (CPS)

NBP

26-Jan 10-Feb 25-Feb 12-Mar 27-Mar 15-Apr 30-Apr

(Trade date)

*TRS - Trading Region South. All prices assessed at 16:30 London time.

European Gas Daily

May 5, 2015

Spanish LNG sendout up 31% year to date

Platts UK market assessments, May 1, 2015

...from page 1

p/th
Change D-1
(p/th)
UK NBP market
Within day
44.0544.25
-1.85
DA 11:00 am
44.50
-0.15
Day ahead
43.4043.60
-1.70
Day ahead+1
43.5543.75
0.15
Weekend
43.4043.60 -0.70
Working week+1 43.6543.85
-0.55
Balance month 43.3043.50
-2.60
June
41.5041.70
-2.25
July
41.9542.15
-0.05
August
42.2042.40
-0.10
September
42.7042.90 0.15
Q3 2015
42.3042.50
-0.25
Q4 2015
47.5047.70
-0.10
Q1 2016
50.5050.70
-0.10
Q2 2016
44.6044.80
-0.10
Winter 15
49.0049.20
-0.10
Summer 16
44.2544.45
-0.10
Winter 16
50.7550.95
-0.15
Summer 17
45.1545.35
-0.05
Winter 17
51.6551.85
0.00
Summer 18
46.2046.40
0.00
Winter 18
52.0552.25
0.00
Summer 19
46.1546.35
0.05
Gas year 2015 46.6546.85
-0.10
Cal 2016
47.0547.25
-0.10

ANALYSIS LNG sendout from Spanish terminals January-April

rose by 31% on the year-ago period on a combination of boosted
domestic gas demand and weak interest for spot reloads from
Asian buyers.
Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed sendout totaling 38.1
million cubic meters between January and April 2015, up from 29
million cu m in the year-ago months.
Mild weather has left major Asia-Pacific buyers with
comfortable inventories. Spot LNG prices in Asia have tumbled
as a result, with Platts data showing the JKM shedding almost
$3.00/MMBtu since the start of this year, to $7.175/MMBtu by
end-April from $10.025/MMBtu.
This has narrowed the arbitrage between Atlantic Basin
and Pacific Basin LNG prices, stranding potential reload
volumes in Spain. The SWE-delivered LNG price at the
beginning of 2015 was about $7.50/MMBtu, which softened
to $6.511/MMBtu by end-April.
The spread between Spain and the Pacific Basin started the
year at $2.525 before collapsing to $0.664/MMBtu.
In contrast, 2014s lower LNG sendout from Spains terminals
tracked a wider spread between the Atlantic and Pacific basins.
The SWE marker at the start of 2014 was $15.27/MMBtu,
against the JKM for the same period at $18.60/MMBtu. By endApril, the SWE marker had softened to $11.58/MMBtu, while
the JKM has reached $14.25/MMBtu. The spread between the
basins narrowed to $2.67/MMBtu from $3.33/MMBtu over the
same period.
While weakening demand from the Pacific has kept LNG
at Spanish terminals, domestic requirements have also
been drawing gas into the grid there on the back of lower
renewables output.

Renewables and nuclear weaken

Hydro generation in Spain dropped by nearly 7.6 TWh January to
April compared to the same period last year, when it totaled 18.8
TWh, according to Platts data. The lower hydro generation this
year has been linked to a colder-than-usual beginning of spring
and a drier season, with rain levels also lower in the first and
April. However, while hydro output is lower, reserves are almost
as full as last year, which saw particularly high hydro stock levels.
At just over 85% full, hydro dam levels are above the 80.2% fiveyear average and the 74.2% 10-year average, the latest hydro
data from Spains environment ministry showed.
This could be an indication that dam operators are expecting
a dry period ahead with little rainfall, traders said.
The drop in hydro output comes amid an unusually low
nuclear generation level, with three nuclear reactors of the total
seven available currently offline for maintenance.
Lower hydro and lower nuclear plant availability have come
against the backdrop of a drop in wind output this year as well.
Total wind output so far in 2015 has been 21.4 TWh, down 1.8

Platts NBP midpoint indices

p/th
Change D-1
(p/th)
Day ahead
Day ahead+1
Month ahead

43.50
43.65
41.60

-1.70
+0.15
-2.25

Eur/MWh

$/MMBtu

20.3320.43
6.696.72
20.54
6.76
20.0320.13
6.596.62
20.1020.19
6.616.64
20.0320.13 6.596.62
20.1520.24
6.636.66
19.9920.08
6.576.60
19.1619.25
6.306.33
19.3619.46
6.376.40
19.4819.57
6.416.44
19.7119.80 6.486.51
19.5319.62
6.426.45
21.9322.02
7.217.24
23.3123.40
7.677.70
20.5920.68
6.776.80
22.6222.71
7.447.47
20.4320.52
6.726.75
23.4323.52
7.707.73
20.8420.93
6.856.88
23.8423.93
7.847.87
21.3321.42
7.017.04
24.0324.12
7.907.93
21.3021.39
7.017.04
21.5321.63 7.087.11
21.7221.81
7.147.17
Eur/MWh
20.08
20.15
19.20

Index definitions are published in the Platts methodology guide available on the Platts website.

ICE UK NBP futures, May 1, 2015 (p/th)

Month
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Win 15
Sum 16
Win 16
Sum 17

Close Previous Change

Low
High Volume
41.860 41.940 -0.080 41.500 42.180 5720
42.240 42.320 -0.080 41.970 42.510 715
42.510 42.560 -0.050 42.280 42.800 420
43.050 42.930 0.120 42.920 43.300 110
44.910 44.830 0.080 45.000 45.050
30
42.595 42.600 -0.005 42.350 42.860 1575
47.734 47.654 0.080 47.450 47.930 140
50.657 50.647 0.010 50.590 50.800 190
44.734
44.704
0.030
44.195
44.165
0.030
49.403
49.373
0.030
52.652
52.622
0.030
45.678
45.628
0.050
49.188 49.142 0.046 48.850 49.440 990
44.463 44.433 0.030 44.450 44.680 235
51.010 50.980 0.030 50.800 51.110 170
45.337 45.287 0.050 45.400 45.400
25

Source: ICE Futures Europe

ICE ENDEX UK OCM, April 30, 2015

NBP total

No. trades SAP (p/th)

159
46.8900

Energy (therms) Values (GBP)

8,671,000
4,065,832

OCM On-the-day Commodity Market

Source: ICE ENDEX

Platts UK NBP intra-day gas prices: May 1

Holiday notice

p/th

There will be no publication of European Gas Daily on Monday

May 4 owing to a holiday in the UK. Publishing will resume on
Tuesday May 5 with the next edition dated Wednesday May 6.
Day ahead as published in the assessment tables in this issue
relates to the Monday May 4 gas day. Day ahead +1 is for
delivery on Tuesday May 5.

Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

May
May
May
May

1
2
3
4

Within day (A)

Next day (B)

EFA day ahead

45.20
44.50
44.50
44.50

44.50
44.50
44.50
44.45

44.70
44.50
44.50
44.46

Prices assessed at 1100 UK time. EFA day ahead is calculated at A*7/24 plus
B*17/24. This reflects the difference between the 6am-start gas day and the
11pm-start EFA power day. During Monday-Thursday only the top row contains
data, other rows used ahead of weekends and bank holidays.

European Gas Daily

TWh from the year-ago period, according to PowerVision data.

At the same time, demand for power has increased, to 82.3
TWh in January-April from 82.1 TWh for the year-ago period.
This, in turn, increased demand for gas-fired generation to
10.33 million cu m in April from 8.09 million cu m in April 2014,
according to Platts data.

Net imports from France decrease

The increased input of LNG into the grid in Spain has also affected
gas imports from France, which have declined on a month-on-month
basis in 2015. Platts data showed that net flows from France to
Spain in April were 4 million cu m/d, down from 10 million cu m/d
in March. The net decrease also includes an increase of exports
from Spain to France, which hit a high of 2 million cu m/d in April.
Desmond Wong, Ana-Maria Tolbaru, Lucie Roux

Spains April demand up 10% to 23.6 TWh

Gas-to-power

demand up 37% on year

8% above high-end forecast
LNG reloads down 87% at 1.1 TWh
Gas-to-power

DEMAND Spains gas demand rose 10% year on year to 23.6 TWh

in April, marked by a 37% rise in demand from gas-fired electricity

generation plants to 4.3 TWh, data from grid operator Enagas
showed Friday.
There was also a 6% increase in domestic demand to 19.3
TWh over the same period, the data showed.
Total gas demand was 2% higher than the companys March
forecast of 23.2 TWh demand in April, with gas-to-power demand
outpacing the companys own high-end forecast of 4 TWh by 8%.
Peak daily demand in the month hit 898 TWh on April 28, with
combined cycle gas plants operating at 15%.
The average rate for CCGTs in April was 12%, up from 9% the
year before.
Spains gas exports jumped 443% year on year to 3.4 TWh in
April due to a reclassification of exports to neighboring Portugal,
which were previously classified as transit volumes.
Reloads of LNG for export fell 87% year on year to 1.1 TWh in
April. Gianluca Baratti

Maintenance at Rough rescheduled: operator

Withdrawal

now between May 7-Sep 5

pushed back by six days
Injections unaffected during outage
Start

STORAGE Maintenance at the Rough reservoir, the UKs largest

natural gas storage site, that will limit withdrawal capacity by 50%
has been pushed back by six days and is now due to begin May
7, its operator, Centrica Storage Ltd, said Friday.
Withdrawal capacity at the facility, normally about 44 million
cu m/day, will be limited to 22 million cu m/day between 7:00
am London time (0600 GMT) May 7 and 06:59 am September 5
the previous schedule was between May 1 and August 31.
Withdrawal maintenance usually occurs during the summer when
gas is injected into the reservoir for withdrawal during the winter.
Capacity restrictions at the Rough reservoir remain in
place after a routine inspection led to the discovery of issues
surrounding well integrity in mid-March.
CSL decided to limit the maximum operating pressure of
the wells to 3,000 psi on the back of the findings, which meant
that capacity in the reservoir is limited to somewhere between
29 TWh and 32 TWh (between 2.741 Bcm and 3.024 Bcm) for

Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

May 5, 2015

Platts Belgian Zeebrugge assessments

May 1, 2015
p/th
Change D-1
(p/th)
Day ahead
Day ahead +1
Weekend
Working week+1
Balance month
June
July
August
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Winter 15
Summer 16
Winter 16
Summer 17
Gas year 2015

42.9043.10
43.1543.35
42.9043.10
43.2543.45
42.9043.10
43.0043.20
42.3042.50
42.4542.65
42.5542.75
46.0546.25
48.2548.45
47.1547.35
44.3044.50
48.8049.00
45.3045.50
45.7545.95

-1.05
0.25
-0.75
-0.05
-2.15
-0.40
-1.15
-0.35
-0.25
-0.05
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
-0.15
-0.05
-0.05

Platts NBP-Zeebrugge basis differentials

p/th
Change (%)
Day ahead
Day ahead+1
Month ahead

-0.50
-0.40
1.50

-56.52
-20.00
-528.57

Eur/MWh

$/MMBtu

19.8019.89
6.516.54
19.9220.01
6.556.58
19.8019.89 6.516.54
19.9620.06
6.576.60
19.8019.89
6.516.54
19.8519.94
6.536.56
19.5319.62
6.426.45
19.5919.69
6.456.48
19.6419.73
6.466.49
21.2621.35
6.997.02
22.2722.36
7.337.36
21.7621.86
7.167.19
20.4520.54
6.736.76
22.5322.62
7.417.44
20.9121.00
6.886.91
21.1221.21
6.956.98
Eur/MWh
-0.23
NA
0.69

Platts Belgian Zeebrugge day-ahead flow date prices

Flow date
May
May
May
May

2
3
4
5

p/th
43.00
43.00
43.00
43.25

Eur/MWh
19.85
19.85
19.85
19.97

Platts Dutch TTF assessments (Hi-cal gas)

May 1, 2015
p/th
Eur/MWh
Change D-1
(Eur/MWh)
Day ahead
43.6743.88 20.1520.25
-0.65
Day ahead+1
43.4543.67 20.0520.15
-0.10
Weekend
43.4543.67 20.0520.15
-0.75
Working week+1 43.4543.67 20.0520.15
-0.65
June
43.2343.45 19.9520.05
-0.65
July
43.0243.23 19.8519.95
-0.55
Q3 2015
43.1243.56 19.9020.10
-0.40
Q4 2015
45.7246.16 21.1021.30
-0.30
Q1 2016
47.2447.68 21.8022.00
-0.30
Q2 2016
44.6445.07 20.6020.80
-0.25
Q3 2016
43.6744.10 20.1520.35
-0.30
Q4 2016
47.0347.46 21.7021.90
-0.30
Winter 15
46.4846.92 21.4521.65
-0.30
Summer 16
44.1044.53 20.3520.55
-0.25
Winter 16
47.7848.22 22.0522.25
-0.25
Summer 17
45.0745.51 20.8021.00
-0.15
Winter 17
48.3348.76 22.3022.50
-0.35
Summer 18
45.7246.16 21.1021.30
-0.20
Gas year 2015 45.2945.72 20.9021.10
-0.30
Cal 2016
45.7246.16 21.1021.30
-0.25
Cal 2017
46.3846.81 21.4021.60
-0.25
Cal 2018
47.2447.68 21.8022.00
-0.25

$/MMBtu
6.636.66
6.596.63
6.596.63
6.596.63
6.566.59
6.536.56
6.556.61
6.947.01
7.177.24
6.786.84
6.636.69
7.147.20
7.067.12
6.696.76
7.257.32
6.846.91
7.347.40
6.947.01
6.876.94
6.947.01
7.047.10
7.177.24

ICE ENDEX Dutch TTF gas futures (Eur/MWh)

May 1, 2015
Settle
Change
WDNW


First month
20.163
-0.315
Second month
20.022
-0.353
Third month
20.057
-0.387
First quarter
20.087
-0.347
Second quarter
21.181
-0.350
Third quarter
21.938
-0.288
Fourth quarter
20.745
-0.232
First season
21.558
-0.319
Second season
20.447
-0.259
Third season
22.231
-0.211
Fourth season
20.929
-0.126
First year
21.163
-0.271
Second year
21.536
-0.178
Third year
21.875
-0.238
Total volume
Source: ICE ENDEX

Volume

2450
25

280
50
10

190
75
5

15
10

3110.00

European Gas Daily

an expected period of six months compared with the previous

3.805 Bcm capacity.
National Grid figures put Rough gas stocks at 500 million cu
m at the end of Wednesdays gas day, 1.026 Bcm down on the
five-year average and 1.654 Bcm lower than at the same time
last year. Gary Hornby

May 5, 2015

Platts European assessments, May 1, 2015

p/th
Eur/MWh
Change D-1
(Eur/MWh)
French PEG Nord
Day ahead
43.8844.32 20.2520.45
-0.50
Day ahead+1
43.7744.21 20.2020.40
-0.05
Weekend
43.9944.42 20.3020.50
-0.90
June
43.1243.56 19.9020.10
-0.65
Q3 2015
43.3443.77 20.0020.20
-0.40
Winter 15
47.3547.78 21.8522.05
-0.30
Cal 2016
46.4846.92 21.4521.65
-0.25

6.666.73
6.646.71
6.686.74
6.556.61
6.586.64
7.197.25
7.067.12

down 46.5% on the month to 697 TWh

Weekend, Summer 15 expiry cuts trade
Jan-April trade still 36.5% up on year

French PEG Sud/TRS*

Day ahead
44.7545.18 20.6520.85
Day ahead+1
44.2144.64 20.4020.60
Weekend
45.1845.62 20.8521.05
June
44.7545.18 20.6520.85

-0.40
-0.25
-0.40
-0.55

6.796.86
6.716.78
6.866.92
6.796.86

THE MARKET Natural gas futures traded volumes on the

IntercontinentalExchange for the UK NBP and Dutch TTF hubs
dropped sharply in April as fewer trading days and the expiry of
the Summer 15 contract led to lower liquidity on Europes two
largest gas hubs, ICE data showed Friday.
Total traded volumes on ICE, a network of regulated
exchanges and clearing houses for financial and commodity
markets, for the NBP and TTF combined fell almost 50% to 697
TWh from the March total of 1,302 TWh and 12.0% down on the
792 TWh in April 2014.
Moreover, Aprils total was the lowest since the 612 TWh in
May last year.
There were two fewer trading days available in April due to the
four-day Easter Weekend at the beginning of the month.
In addition, trading on seasonal contracts plummeted with the
expiry of the Summer 15 contract, falling from 690 TWh in March
to 212 TWh in April.
Despite the low traded volumes last month, the first four
months of the year saw 4,465 TWh traded compared to the
3,272 TWh for the January-April period in 2014.

German GASPOOL
Day ahead
43.9944.42 20.3020.50
Day ahead+1
43.6744.10 20.1520.35
Weekend
44.3244.75 20.4520.45
June
43.5643.99 20.1020.30
Q3 2015
43.1243.56 19.9020.10
Winter 15
46.3846.81 21.4021.60
Cal 2016
45.7246.16 21.1021.30

-0.70
-0.15
-0.65
-0.55
-0.40
-0.30
-0.25

6.686.74
6.636.69
6.736.79
6.616.68
6.556.61
7.047.10
7.067.01

NetConnect Germany
Day ahead
43.8844.32 20.2520.45
Day ahead+1
43.5643.99 20.1020.30
Weekend
44.1044.53 20.3520.55
June
43.2343.67 19.9520.15
Q3 2015
43.4543.88 20.0520.25
Winter 15
47.0347.46 21.7021.90
Cal 2016
46.2746.70 21.3521.55

-0.60
-0.15
-0.75
-0.60
-0.40
-0.30
-0.25

6.666.73
6.616.68
6.696.76
6.566.63
6.596.66
7.147.20
7.027.09

Austrian CEGH VTP

Day ahead
44.9745.40 20.7520.95
Day ahead+1
44.9745.40 20.7520.95
Weekend
44.9745.40 20.7520.95
June
44.8645.29 20.7020.90

-0.15
0.00
-0.90
-0.10

6.836.89
6.836.89
6.836.89
6.816.87

Italian PSV
Day ahead
Day ahead+1
Weekend
June
Q3 2015
Winter 15

-0.40
0.20
-1.35
-0.60
-0.35
-0.30

6.977.10
7.047.17
6.977.10
7.017.14
7.067.19
7.537.66

NBP, TTF ICE volumes down sharply in April

Total

Easter

ICE futures traded volumes

1500

*TRS Trading Region South.

(TWh)

EEX German NetConnect gas prices, May 1, 2015

NBP

TTF

1000

500

45.9446.81 21.2021.60
46.3847.24 21.4021.80
45.9446.81 21.2021.60
46.1647.03 21.3021.70
46.4847.35 21.4521.85
49.6350.49 22.9023.30

$/MMBtu

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Source: IntercontinentalExchange

On the NBP, traded volumes dropped 47.1% on the month

and 23.3% on the year to 522 TWh in April, a 16-month low,
however total traded volumes for January-April remained 20.9%
higher on the year at 3,448 TWh.
Monthly contracts accounted for just over half of all traded
volumes in April, with quarterly, seasonal and annual contracts
accounting for 17.7%, 31.9% and 0.2% respectively.
For the TTF hub, traded volumes at 175 TWh in April were
44.5% down on the month but remained well above the 111 TWh
in the same month last year, with traded volumes for the first
four months of 2015 142.3% higher on the year at 1,018 TWh.
Trading was more evenly spilt than on the NBP, as monthly
contracts accounted for 34.5% of the April total, quarterly
contracts 30.2%, seasonal contracts 25.8%, and annual
contracts 9.5%. Gary Hornby

Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

EEX gas spot price

NCG day ahead 10 MW

Settlement price
Change
(Eur/MWh) (Eur/MWh)
NA
NA

EEX gas futures

NCG month ahead
NCG month ahead+1
NCG quarter ahead
NCG quarter ahead+1
NCG year ahead
NCG year ahead+1

Settlement price
Change
Total volume
(Eur/MWh) (Eur/MWh) (MWh)
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

Source: EEX

Powernext French PEG Nord gas prices, May 1, 2015

Spot daily average price


PEG Nord day ahead
Powernext gas futures


PEG Nord month ahead
PEG Nord month ahead+1
PEG Nord quarter ahead
PEG Nord quarter ahead+1
PEG Nord season ahead
PEG Nord season ahead+1
PEG Nord season ahead+2
Source: Powernext

Daily average price Change

Total volume
(Eur/MWh) (Eur/MWh) (MWh)
NA
NA
NA
Settlement price
Change
Total volume
(Eur/MWh) (Eur/MWh) (MWh)
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

European Gas Daily

EC Gazprom statement indicates settlement

Tone

less hostile than expected

Many of the issues already resolved
POLICY & REGULATION Russian gas analyst Katja Yafimava said
Friday that the recent statement of objections that the European
Commission filed against Gazprom allows the possibility of a
settlement, based on what has been made public.
The EC has taken a more conciliatory tone than expected, and
many of the issues that the statement identified, such as destination
clauses, have been or will be removed where they persist, she said.
The EC is charging Gazprom with abusing its market position
to set unfairly high prices and limiting natural gas market growth
in eight Eastern European countries through contract clauses that
ban customers for reselling gas, among other allegations.
The EC is acting on claims that were made against Gazprom
some years ago, and since then, the markets affected have
begun to diversify their sources of gas, in the process lowering
their gas price.
Yafimava said it was a very important point that the statement
of objections had said explicitly that oil price linkage is not per
se uncompetitive, nor is charging different prices in different
countries, because market fundamentals differ.
As for allegedly linking price discounts with infrastructure
investment, she said the main case in point has been South
Stream, which is now canceled and therefore irrelevant.
In short, although the statement of objections is not going
to improve the EU-Russia gas relationship, its substance and
wording are such as to allow enough room for Gazprom/Russia
and the commission to settle, she said.
Platts has previously reported the wide range in prices among
Gazproms captive customers, such as the Baltic States, which
claim to pay the most for their gas. But now Lithuania has built
an expensive import terminal, allowing it to import gas from
elsewhere and negotiate more effectively with Gazprom.
Poland has nearly completed its LNG terminal, and gas flows
in that northeast corner of Europe will respond to prices as more
transport capacity is built between markets.
Gazprom says that the claims are unfounded and what it
does is consistent with normal business practice. The business
practices of the Gazprom Group in the EU market, including the
principles of gas pricing, are in full conformity with the standards
observed by other producers and exporters of natural gas, it said
in response to the EC statement.
It also pointed out that under Russian laws it has to fulfill
certain socially important functions as a strategic, governmentcontrolled business entity.
Gazprom added that it expected the case to be resolved by an
agreement between the EC and the Russian government.
Yafimava is the author of, or contributor to, a number of books
on Russian and former Soviet Union gas markets published by the
Oxford Institute of Energy Studies. William Powell

Turkey wants to transit Turkmen gas to Europe

Turkey
EU

remains fully committed to transit: Yildiz

interest in Turkmen gas continues

POLICY & REGULATION Turkey wants to transit natural gas from

Turkmenistan to Europe, Turkish energy minister Taner Yildiz
said Friday following a meeting with the Azerbaijani energy
minister, Natiq Aliyev, Turkmen Deputy Prime Minister Baymurat
Hocamuhammedov and European Commission Vice President
Maros Sefcovic in the Turkmen capital Ashgabat.

Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

May 5, 2015

Fuel Switching Snapshot

Platts cross fuel comparisons, May 1, 2015

Coal CIF ARA
Month ahead
90 Days

p/th Eur/MWh Eur/GJ

43.1666
42.7047

UK gas prices at NBP

Balance month
June
July
Q3 2015

86.8000 40.0560 11.1267

83.2000 38.3947 10.6652
84.1000 38.8100 10.7806
84.8000 39.1330 10.8703

Dutch gas at TTF

June
July
Q3 2015

86.6800 40.0006 11.1113

86.2500 39.8021 11.0562
86.6800
40.0006
11.1113

19.9203
19.7071

5.5334
5.4742

Fuel oil 1% (NW Europe cargoes)

June
July
Q3 2015

180.5749 83.3306 23.1474

181.3617 83.6937 23.2483
182.1485 84.0568 23.3491

Electricity (UK baseload)

June
July
Q3 2015

120.5988 55.6532 15.4592

121.4780 56.0590 15.5719
121.3314 55.9913 15.5532

Electricity (German baseload)

June
July
Q3 2015

65.9842
65.0090
66.0925

30.4500
30.0000
30.5000

8.4583
8.3333
8.4722

Prices in this table show the cost of electricity generated from each fuel, taking into account
the following plant efficiencies: CCGT gas plant 50% HHV, coal 35%, fuel oil 32%. Assumed
calorific value: fuel oil 17,800 Btu/lb, Coal 6,000 kcal/ton. HHV high heating value.

Platts Coal Switching Price Indicator (CSPI)

May 1, 2015
Month ahead
Quarter ahead
Year ahead

UK
UK Netherlands
(p/th)
(Eur/MWh)
(Eur/MWh)
44.38 20.48 13.88
44.01 20.31 13.73
44.14 20.37 13.80

Efficiency used is 50% for Gas plants, 35% for UK Coal plants and 40% for Dutch Coal plants. Platts
CSPI is the theoretical threshold at which gas is more competitive than coal in power generation.
When the gas price is higher than the CSPI, CCGTs are more expensive to run than coal-fired plants.

UK clean spark vs clean dark spreads season ahead

15

(Eur/MWh)
CSS 50% HHV (CPS) Sum-15
CSS 50% HHV (CPS) Win-15/16

12

CDS (CPS) Sum-15

CDS (CPS) Win-15/16

9
6
3
Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Source: Platts

Mar-15
Apr-15
(Trade date)

Clean spark spread, May 1, 2015 (50% efficient)

20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25

(Eur/MWh)

UK
DA

Source: Platts

MA

German

MA+1

Dutch
QA

Belgian
QA+1

European Gas Daily

Turkeys semi-official news agency Anatolia Friday quoted

Yildiz as saying that Turkey had been supporting the idea of
exporting Turkmen gas to Europe via Turkey since the 1990s and
remained fully politically and technically committed to achieving
the transit. Yildiz said that the four-way meeting held Friday was
an important step toward realizing the goal of exporting Turkmen
gas via Turkey but made no comment on how the transit could be
implemented.
In the late 1990s Turkey supported the development by
Shell, Bechtel and GE of the 31 Bcm a year capacity Trans
Caspian Gas Pipeline and signed a purchase agreement with
Turkmenistan for 15.6 Bcm/year of gas.
The gas purchase agreement remains valid although the
pipeline project was shelved by the developers following the
discovery of gas in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian.
Subsequently Turkey has discussed various options for transiting
Turkmen gas to Turkey including via Iran and Azerbaijan.
In 2012 Turkey and Azerbaijan signed the host government
agreement for the 31 Bcm/year TANAP gas line which allows for
the transit of both Azerbaijani and Turkmen gas.
However to date no indication has been given as to how the
gas could be brought to Turkey to feed into TANAP. Azerbaijan
and Turkmenistan are in dispute over the delineation of their
respective areas of the Caspian Sea, primarily over the ownership
of the Omar and Osman oil and gas fields and without a
resolution, the development of a new Trans Caspian pipeline is
seen as unlikely.
Turkish officials said the dispute would be addressed at
Fridays talks, but Anatolia made no reference to what had been
discussed.
The presence of Sefcovic at Fridays talks suggests continuing
hopes on the part of the EU that Turkmen gas can be transited
to Europe via the TANAP line construction of which started in
February. Although construction has started the line currently
only has commitments of 16 Bcm/year of gas from Azerbaijans
Shah Deniz gas field of which 6 Bcm/year will be supplied to
Turkey and 10 Bcm/year transited to European markets with the
remaining 15 Bcm/year of capacity still available.
The purchase last year by Malaysias Petronas of a 15.5%
stake in the Shah Deniz field sparked speculation both that the
company could take a stake in the TANAP pipeline consortium
and that that Turkmen gas could be used to fill some of the lines
spare capacity. Petronas holds a production sharing agreement
with the Turkmen government for Block 1 in the Turkmen sector
of the Caspian which covers the Magtymguly, Ovez and Diyarbekir
gas fields which together have proven reserves of around 245
Bcm and have developed an onshore gas processing plant.
To date Petronas officials have declined to say whether the
company is interested in joining the TANAP consortium or what
plans it has for its Caspian holdings. David OByrne

May 5, 2015

Platts daily spot vs NWE oil-indexed gas indicator

May 1, 2015
Eur/MWh
NBP day ahead current month
-5.20
NBP month ahead month ahead
-4.44
NBP month ahead+1 month ahead+1
-3.30

p/th
-10.50
-8.90
-6.47

$/MMBtu
-1.69
-1.45
-1.07

TTF day ahead current month
TTF month ahead month ahead
TTF month ahead+1 month ahead+1

p/th
-10.23
-7.16
-5.40

$/MMBtu
-1.65
-1.19
-0.91

Eur/MWh
-5.08
-3.64
-2.81

The differential table shows the difference between the spot gas price and the indicator.

Platts May 2015 NWE oil-indexed gas indicator

Eur/MWh Change M-1

Current month
Month ahead
Month ahead+1

25.28
23.64
22.71

-1.71
-1.64
-1.53

p/th

$/MMBtu

54.00
50.50
48.52

8.29
7.76
7.45

The Monthly NWE oil-indexed gas contract indicator is a modeled price reflecting the cost of gas
sold in NW Europe under a traditional long-term sales contract indexed against fuel oil and gasoil.
The model does not include any adjustment for discounts from contract renegotiations. Prices
are originally calculated in Euro per MWh, then converted to p/th and $/MMBtu using current
exchange rate.

N2EX UK power auction, spark spread: May 1

Delivery date: May 2
N2EX day ahead power auction
Platts EFA day ahead gas*
NASDAQ OMX UK day ahead spark spread

39.85 GBP/MWh
44.70 p/th
8.81 GBP/MWh

*Reflects 11pm start electricity day

Forex indicators, May 1, 2015

NOK
SKr
DKr
SFr
GBP
US $ Zloty
TRY
Euro 8.5055 9.3892 7.4655 1.0455 0.7394 1.1223 4.0746 3.0270
US $ 7.5796 8.3665 6.6526 0.9316 0.6587 1.0000 2.6972
Source: Tullett Prebon, spot FX at 16:00 London time

Weather summary, May 1, 2015

Week normal high/low temps (C) and projected deviations from normal
Celsius

Normal 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Central Europe
Berlin
Frankfurt-Am-Main
Prague
Vienna
Warsaw

18/7 -3 -3 -2
+3
+3
+1 -1
19/9
-5
-4
0 +2 +3
-1
-3
18/7
-3
-1
0 +5 +5 +5
0
20/9 -3 -2 -1
+3
+5
+2 0
18/7 -2 -2 -2
+2
+2
+4 0

Northwest Europe

Market Commentary

ZEE spot discount narrows to 0.40 p/th

Spot gas on Belgiums Zeebrugge hub against the UKs NBP
market for the coming days was valued narrower on Friday than it
had been throughout week 18.
Gas for delivery during the three-day bank holiday was
assessed at a discount of 0.50 pence/therm to the NBP, at 43
p/th for both the weekend and Monday, and gas for delivery on
Tuesday was at a discount of 0.40 p/th at 43.25 p/th.
During the previous week, the day-ahead contract was at a

Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

Amsterdam
Brussels
London
Paris

17/7
17/8
17/8
18/9

-3
-3
-5
-3

-3 +1 +1 +1 -1 -1
-2
+3 +3 +2
0
0
-5
0 +1
-1
-3
-4
-3 +1 -1 +1 -3 -3

Scandinavia
Copenhagen
Helsinki
Oslo
Stockholm

15/6 -2 -1 -2
+1
+1
+2
+1
12/4
0
-3
-2
-2
-3
-2
0
14/3
-1
-2
0
-1
-2
-1 +3
14/5 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 -1

Southern Europe
Lisbon
Madrid
Milan

21/13
+1
+1
0 +1
-1
-1
-1
21/8 +3 +7 +5 +4 +2 +3 +5
20/10
-4
+1
0 +1 +3 +3 +2

Source: CustomWeather, 01May15/06:54 AM EDT/1054 GMT

European Gas Daily

discount of 0.85-1.40 p/th.

Flows from the UK to Belgium across the Interconnector
pipeline were expected to be 23 million cubic meters for the day
Friday after dipping to 14 million-15 million cu m/d Wednesday
and Thursday, according to data from Eclipse Energy, an analytics
unit of Platts.
Norwegian flows into Belgium were at a rate of 29 million
cu m/d during the afternoon, operator Gassco said, up slightly
from Thursdays 27 million cu m but down from Wednesdays 33
million cu m.
Norwegian production was hampered during the week by a
string of unplanned outages, but they had ended by Friday.
Eclipse data estimated total gas demand for Belgium on
Friday at 41 million cu m, fairly well in line with recent days.
Demand was expected to ease to as low as 31 million cu m on
Sunday and to 37 million cu m/d for Monday and Tuesday.
The expected drop in demand coincides with forecasts of
warmer temperatures.
Brussels was forecast to be 3 degrees Celsius below
the norm of 17/8 C Friday, CustomWeather data showed.
Temperatures were forecast to climb to 3 C above average
Sunday-Monday.
The new front-month June contract was valued at 43.10 p/th,
a 1.50 p/th premium to the UK.
Winter 15 lost 0.10 p/th day on day to close at 47.25 p/th,
with its discount unchanged at 1.85 p/th.

TTF extends losses as Norway ramps up

Dutch prices pushed lower again Friday, gaining momentum
from an end to the recent spate of unplanned outages on the
Norwegian continental shelf.
By the close, the contracts for Monday and Tuesday delivery
were assessed at Eur20.20/MWh and Eur20.10/MWh, compared
with Eur20.85/MWh on the corresponding contract for Friday
delivery. The contract for Monday delivery last Friday had been
assessed at Eur21.80/MWh.
Real-time flow rates at Emden/Dornum on the Dutch-German
border were seen around 145 million cubic meter/day during the
session, according to network operator Gassco, around 15 million
cu m above flow rates Thursday.
Norways 120 million cu m/day Troll field had no unplanned

May 5, 2015

maintenance Friday after a 24 million cu m/day volume

reduction Thursday.
Gassco reported one planned outage on the Continental shelf at
an unnamed field, with a volume reduction of 45 million cu m/day.
End-of-day Norwegian imports into the Netherlands were
nominated at 56.6 million cu m/d compared with a 58.8 million
cu m/d allocation Thursday, according to Eclipse Energy, an
analytical unit of Platts.
Dutch gas production was nominated at 103.2 million cu m/
day compared with 89.8 million cu m Thursday, Eclipse Energy
said.
Robust Dutch supply meant the system was able to restart
exports to the UK through the BBL pipeline from mid-afternoon.
The pipe was nominated to deliver nearly 15 million cu m into the
UK Friday, Eclipse Energy said.
Meanwhile, Russian supply into Europe was expected at
293.5 million cu m/day Friday compared with a 320.1 million cu
m/day allocation Thursday, Eclipse said.
CustomWeather forecast Amsterdam temperatures for Friday
3 degrees Celsius below the normal seasonal high and low of
17/7 C and at 1 C above norms Monday.
By the close, weekend and working-days-next-week contracts
were assessed 75 and 65 euro cent lower day on day at
Eur20.10/MWh parity.
On the curve, the new front-month June contract ended 45
euro cent lower day on day at Eur20/MWh, while Winter 15 was
pegged 30 euro cent down on the day at Eur21.55/MWh.

Bears get firm grip on German spot

The German wholesale gas market continued to fall Friday,
thanks to a downward revision of a demand forecast, healthy
supply and pressure from the Dutch TTF equivalent.
The NetConnect day-ahead for Tuesdays delivery closed at
Eur20.20/MWh, falling 75 euro cent day and day. GASPOOL
equivalent plunged 85 euro cent to Eur20.25/MWh. The sharper
fall at GASPOOL failed to reverse the price profile between the
two hubs and GASPOOL remained the most expensive contract.
Nominated imports from Poland and from Russia remained high
at about 176 million cu m. Exports allocated to the Netherlands
increased about 21 million cu m since Monday to 41.3 million cu
m, according to Eclipse Energy, an analytics unit of Platts.

Volume 20 / Issue 85 / May 5, 2015

EUROPEAN GAS DAILY

London Editorial
Reginald Ajuonuma, Gary Hornby,
Nathan Richardson, Lucie Roux
Phone: +44 (0)20 7176 6119
Email: power@platts.com
Fax: +44 (0)20 7176 6670
Head of Content
Fabio Reale
Head of Pricing
Anna Crowley
Global Editorial Director, Power
Sarah Cottle

Platts President
Larry Neal

European Gas Daily is published daily Monday-Friday except for UK public holidays, by Platts, a division of McGraw Hill Financial, registered office: 20 Canada Square, Canary Wharf, England, E14 5LH.
Officers of the Corporation: Harold McGraw III, Chairman; Doug Peterson, President and Chief Executive
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Prices, indexes, assessments and other price information published herein are based on material
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European Gas Daily

Stocks were seen at 28% full Friday at the opening, which was 35
percentage points less than last year at the same date, according to
Gas Storage Europe data. Shippers boosted withdrawals as the week
moved along, moving from a 2 million cu m withdrawal on Monday
to a 23.40 million cu m drawdown on Thursday. Withdrawals then
ratcheted back on Friday, to 7.8 million cu m.
Demand remained steady at about 200 million cu m Friday
compared with Thursday, but was expected to tick down slightly
over the weekend and the next week, to 170 million cu m.
At the end of the day, the forecast for German demand for
May 4 and 5 was revised down according to GFS, which added to
the bearishness.
CustomWeather forecast Munich temperatures for Monday 1
degree Celsius above seasonal norms and 5 C above normal on
Tuesday, while Berlin was forecast 2 C below the seasonal norm
for Monday and 3 degree above average Tuesday.

Healthy supply sends PEG prices down

The French wholesale gas market was pressured Friday by low
demand on a bank holiday, the end of the firm capacity restriction
at Taisnieres and the arrival of LNG cargoes in Spain.
The PEG Nord day-ahead for Tuesday delivery closed at
Eur20.30/MWh, down 55 euro cent day on day. The TRS
counterpart was assessed at Eur20.50/MWh, losing 65 euro
cent day on day.
The Taisnieres interconnection point linking Belgium to France
showed 43.51% restriction Thursday, but the outage ended
Friday, operator GRTGaz showed. This in turn pushed down the
TRS spot as the capacity between PEG Nord and TRS continued
to be fully available.
Two LNG cargoes were expected in Spain on Friday and added
to the sentiment of oversupply as Spain was expected to import
less gas from France.
Temperatures in France were seen broadly in line with the
seasonal average at the start of the week ahead. CustomWeather
forecast temperatures in Paris to be 1 degree Celsius above
seasonal norms Monday but about 1 C below norms Tuesday.
New front-month June closed at Eur20/MWh on the PEG Nord
and at Eur20.75/MWh on TRS, with both contracts falling more
than half a euro below May expiry.

PSV prompt, curve move lower in thin trade

Italian prompt gas on the PSV hub came down Friday in a
generally quiet holiday session.
Weekend and Monday contracts were assessed at Eur21.40/
MWh Friday, down from a level of Eur22.05/MWh seen Thursday for
weekend delivery, while Tuesday was assessed at Eur21.60/MWh.
According to Snam nominations, demand for Saturday will
fall to 116 million cubic meters from 118 million cu m Friday,
while imports were expected to increase by 3 million cu m to 156
million cu m and storage injections to rise by 5 million cu m to
58 million cu m.

Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

May 5, 2015

According to weather forecaster ilmeteo.it, temperatures in

Milan were seen rising across the long weekend, from 13/14
degrees Celsius Friday to 17/25 C by Tuesday, while in Rome
they would increase from 12/22 C Friday to 15/31 C by Tuesday.
On the curve, Winter 15 and Q3 followed the TTF lower,
dropping 30 and 35 euro cent respectively to Eur23.10/MWh
and Eur21.65/MWh. New front-month June was assessed at
Eur21.50/MWh, having been seen Thursday at Eur22.10/MWh.

NBP spot falls late as BBL pipeline ramps up

...from page 1

million cu m/d were higher than demand forecasts at 16:00

London time (1500 GMT) from National Grid of 225 million cu m.
The BBL flows have come out of the blue, accelerating the
late selloff, one UK-based gas trader said. Although, Europe has
been taking a lot of Norwegian gas, up by about 80 million cu
m/d [since maintenance at Troll ended].
The within-day NBP contract was assessed at 44.15 pence/
therm at the 16:30 London market close, 1.85 p/th lower than
Thursdays close and down on the intraday high of 45.20 p/th
from late morning trade.
The day-ahead and weekend contracts also came under
pressure late, with day-ahead for Tuesday delivery closing
at 43.65 p/th and weekend for Saturday, Sunday and Monday
delivery assessed at 43.50 p/th, down 1.55 p/th and 0.70 p/
th, respectively.
Early pressure on spot prices came from higher Norwegian
gas flows through the Langeled pipeline, with total Norwegian
gas flows into the UK rising from 60 million cu m/d Thursday
afternoon to 82 million cu m/d Friday afternoon.
UK gas production was again robust and nudged close to the
100 million cu m mark Friday.
LNG supply remained healthy despite the fact that the Dragon
LNG terminal ceased sendout overnight, with only South Hook
flowing gas out at rates of 38 million cu m/d.
The Qatari Shagra LNG tanker remains on course to berth at
South Hook on Tuesday; however, no tankers are due at either
Dragon or Isle of Grain in the short term.
Storage withdrawals were seen from the Holford mediumrange facility early Friday at rates of 4 million cu m/d; however,
flows ceased early afternoon.
Nominations for exports to Belgium were higher, with IUK
16:00 nominations at 24 million cu m against the 15 million cu
m from Thursday.
Prompt and curve NBP contracts also came under pressure
toward the close, with further bearish influence from intraday
losses in oil prices.
Front-month June was assessed at 41.60 p/th, down from the
Thursday close of 42.10 p/th, with Q3 15 dropping 0.25 p/th to
close at 42.40 p/th with mild losses on the near curve as Winter
15 and Summer 16 both fell 0.10 p/th to be assessed at 49.10
p/th and 44.35 p/th, respectively.