SCNC1111

Scientific Method and Reasoning

Part IIb

Lecture 11
Probability
11-11-2014

The Additive Law of Probability

Let and be any two events. We have
= + ()

Example: = , , , , , = {, , , },
= {, }, = , , , , , ,

The Additive Law of Probability

In the case with three events , , and , we
have

= + +

+( )

Example 7
Students in a Science class are asked whether theyve ever visited
the Hong Kong Disneyland (A), and whether theyve ever visited
the Ocean Park (B). It is known that 75% of the students have
visited the Hong Kong Disneyland, and 85% have visited the Ocean
Park and 70% of the students have visited both.
How many students have never visited both theme parks if there
are 200 students in the class?
It is known that = 0.75, = 0.85 and = 0.7.
= + ()
= 0.75 + 0.85 0.7 = 0.9
0.85
0.75
0.7

= 1 0.9 = 0.1

The number of students who have never visited both theme parks
is 0.1 200 = 20.

Example 8
(Venn diagrams) There are 50 first year students in the
Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science. 50% of them
intend to major in Statistics (A), 70% of them intend to
major in Risk Management (B), and 20% of them intend to
major in Actuarial Science (C). 15 intend to major in both A
and B, 5 intend to major in both B and C, and 5 intend to
major in both A and C.
What is the probability that a randomly selected student
intend to do a triple major in the department?

Cont. Example 8
Let , and denote the event of intending to major in
Statistics, Risk Management and Actuarial Science,
respectively.

15 5
5
1 = 0.5 + 0.7 + 0.2

+
50 50 50
= 0.1

Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of an event , given
that an event has occurred is equal to

=
()
provided that () > 0.

Example 9
(Clinical Trial) In a study of a new treatment for insomnia, some randomly selected
targeted patients were assigned to receive the tested drug for a year. Another group of
randomly selected patients were assigned to receive a placebo treatment for a year.
We check their responses 3 months after the treatment started in order to assess the
long-term impact.
The results of the clinical trial are shown in the table below:
Response
Relapse
No Relapse
Total

Treatment group
33
40
73

Placebo
36
31
67

Total
69
71
140

What is the probability that a randomly selected patient received placebo treatment
given that he had no relapse of insomnia?
Let denotes the event that the patient received the placebo, and let denotes the
event that the patient had no relapse.
The require probability
31

31
140
=
=
=
= 0.4366
71
()
71
140

Wikipedia, 2007.

Example 10
(Drawing balls) An urn contains 25 distinct numbered balls. Five balls are
selected at random without replacement.
Let
= 2, 8, 18, 19, 21 ,
= { 18}.
Find P .

()

= =
=

11 424
525

10626
53130

Hence, =

55

020

525

= 0.2

()

1
53130
1
5

1
53130

= 0.0000188

1
10626

= 0.0000941

The Multiplicative Law of Probability

=
()

From the above definition, it is obvious that

= = (|)
If A and B are independent, then = which is
equivalent to stating that two events A and B are independent if
= () or = (). Moreover, by the
multiplicative law of probability, we have
=
=
= (| )
or more generally, with k events 1 , , ,
1 2
= 1 2 1 1 2 1 .

Example 11
Find the probabilities of randomly drawing 2
aces in succession from an ordinary deck of 52
playing cards
(i) without replacement;
(ii) with replacement.
4
3
1
(i) =
.
52
51
221
4
4
1
(ii) =
.
52
52
169

Birthday Problem
n people in a room including you

dimensionsinfo, 2012.

Birthday Problem (A)

= 1 = 1 ()

365
364
365+1
=

365
365
365
365
364
Hence = 1

365
365

365+1
365

Birthday Problem (A)

Birthday Problem (B)

=
1 = 1 ()
=

364 1
=
365
364 1
365

365
364
364

365
365
365

Hence q = 1

Birthday Problem (B)

Birthday Problem (C)

k

No. of people required

23

14

11