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Invests P10 A Day - Su - 20141020
Invests P10 A Day - Su - 20141020
October 2014
Volume 5, No. 19
Bo Sanchez
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Stocks
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Stocks
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Page 1 of 8
Steep or Shallow
By Mike Vias
In recent weeks, weve been seeing our market correct (go down). This is the correction many investors have been
waiting for since May, because since then up to just recently, the market continued to rise, going against expectations
of it correcting. However, five months later, the correction is finally here. The question is, will it be a steep correction
or a shallow one?
The catalysts of such a correction are our markets expensive valuation, the correction also taking place in the
US market, as well as the weakness of the peso, and the rising of US interest rates. Historically, the peso going down
has always been accompanied by some weakness in the stock market. In addition, foreign investors have once again
turned into net sellers in the last few weeks after being consistently buyers of the Philippine market since February.
Now, I understand why a lot of you may be a bit concerned with the recent correction given its similarities to
the May 2013 correction. If you remember, last year the market fell by as much as 25 percent due to concerns that the
USE Fed would begin to lessen its bond buyback program as well as the peso weakening by as much as 11 percent.
This time around, we believe that this current correction were seeing will only be a shallow one because of several
differences from last years correction.
One difference is, if you recall was that foreign funds flow went back to developed countries with expectations of
better growth prospects and rising interest rates in these countries compared to emerging markets such as ours. However
currently, contrary to expectations, some central banks of developed economies even adopted looser monetary policies
to fend off the threat of deflation. A good example of this is the European Central Bank reducing its base interest rate.
The US interest rates on the other hand, are on the rise. However, they will probably be lower than historical levels.
Aside from the slower than expected rise in the interest rates of developed markets, the BSP is also currently
in a tightening mode. The market expects rates to increase even further as BSP takes steps in order to avoid possible
increases in demand driven inflation. Thus, higher rates may slow down the market.
Finally, investors are currently very cautious, unlike in 2013. This was seen in the drop in net sales of mutual
funds during the 1st half of this year dropping by 90 percent, compared to the strong net sales of mutual funds during
the 1st five months of 2013 with the positive investor sentiment.
Given our expectation of a shallow correction, it would be best for investors to stay invested and ride out the
volatility as we continue to have a long-term positive view on our market. This means for us SAM investors, we should
simply continue to buy regularly our SAM Stocks that are below the Buy Below Price and accumulate shares across
the volatility of a shallow correction. This way, we may be able to get these great stocks at cheaper prices, preparing
us well when the market rallies back up.
Happy investing!
Stocks
Update
Stocks
Update
Volume 5, No. 19
October 2014
Page 2 of 8
Current Price
Target Price
AC
AP
BDO
EEI
LRI
MBT
MEG
MER
SMPH
688.00
39.00
96.10
11.10
9.49
83.65
4.65
260.00
16.50
709.00
39.00
93.00
11.30
13.78
96.50
4.58
284.00
17.60
816.00
44.90
107.00
13.00
15.85
111.00
5.73
355.00
20.30
Action to Take
Continue buying
Stop buying for now
Stop buying for now
Continue buying
Continue buying
Continue buying
Stop buying for now
Continue buying
Continue buying
STOCK
SYMBOL
DATE
BOUGHT
PRICE
BOUGHT
PRICE
TODAY
YOUR
RETURN
BUY BELOW
PRICE
TARGET
PRICE
EXPECTED
GROWTH
AC
TOTAL
AP
TOTAL
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-15
603.50
598.50
580.00
601.50
569.50
555.00
525.00
538.50
574.00
590.00
704.00
688.00
36.40
36.60
36.55
37.00
38.95
688.00
688.00
688.00
688.00
688.00
688.00
688.00
688.00
688.00
688.00
688.00
688.00
39.00
39.00
39.00
39.00
39.00
14.00%
14.95%
18.62%
14.38%
20.81%
23.96%
31.05%
27.76%
19.86%
16.61%
-2.27%
0.00%
16.64%
7.14%
6.56%
6.70%
5.41%
0.13%
6.48%
654.80
602.40
602.40
602.40
602.40
602.40
599.13
599.13
599.13
599.13
709.00
709.00
38.00
38.00
38.00
39.00
39.00
753.00
753.00
753.00
753.00
753.00
753.00
689.00
689.00
689.00
689.00
816.00
816.00
44.30
44.30
44.30
44.90
44.90
24.77%
25.81%
29.83%
25.19%
32.22%
35.68%
31.24%
27.95%
20.03%
16.78%
15.91%
18.60%
25.33%
21.70%
21.04%
21.20%
21.35%
15.28%
20.11%
Legend:
n Continue Buying
Stocks
Update
Stocks
Update
Volume 5, No. 19
n Stop Buying
October 2014
Page 3 of 8
STOCK
SYMBOL
DATE
BOUGHT
PRICE
BOUGHT
PRICE
TODAY
YOUR
RETURN
BUY BELOW
PRICE
TARGET
PRICE
EXPECTED
GROWTH
BDO
TOTAL
EEI
TOTAL
LRI
TOTAL
Apr-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Aug-14
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Oct-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
86.10
84.50
87.50
82.00
75.40
78.40
78.00
69.95
71.80
80.00
91.70
9.57
9.88
9.70
10.04
10.00
11.00
10.62
11.00
11.24
11.10
11.50
11.00
10.50
9.72
9.10
9.25
8.82
8.71
9.00
8.99
9.24
9.97
9.59
9.95
9.85
9.87
9.49
96.10
96.10
96.10
96.10
96.10
96.10
96.10
96.10
96.10
96.10
96.10
11.10
11.10
11.10
11.10
11.10
11.10
11.10
11.10
11.10
11.10
9.49
9.49
9.49
9.49
9.49
9.49
9.49
9.49
9.49
9.49
9.49
9.49
9.49
9.49
9.49
9.49
9.49
11.61%
13.73%
9.83%
17.20%
27.45%
22.58%
23.21%
37.38%
33.84%
20.13%
4.80%
20.16%
15.99%
12.35%
14.43%
10.56%
11.00%
0.91%
4.52%
0.91%
-1.25%
0.00%
6.94%
-17.48%
-13.73%
-9.62%
-2.37%
4.29%
2.59%
7.60%
8.96%
5.44%
5.56%
2.71%
-4.81%
-1.04%
-4.62%
-3.65%
-3.85%
0.00%
-1.41%
89.60
97.40
97.40
89.60
89.60
89.60
89.60
89.60
81.74
93.04
93.00
10.40
10.40
10.40
11.04
11.04
11.04
11.04
11.30
11.30
11.30
12.68
12.68
12.68
12.68
12.68
12.68
12.68
13.78
13.78
13.78
13.78
13.78
13.78
13.78
13.78
13.78
13.78
112.00
112.00
112.00
112.00
112.00
112.00
112.00
112.00
94.00
107.00
107.00
13.00
13.00
13.00
12.70
12.70
12.70
12.70
13.00
13.00
13.00
15.85
15.85
15.85
15.85
15.85
15.85
15.85
15.85
15.85
15.85
15.85
15.85
15.85
15.85
15.85
15.85
15.85
30.08%
32.54%
28.00%
36.59%
48.54%
42.86%
43.59%
60.11%
30.92%
33.75%
16.68%
36.70%
35.84%
31.58%
34.02%
26.49%
27.00%
15.45%
19.59%
18.18%
15.66%
17.12%
24.09%
37.83%
44.09%
50.95%
63.07%
74.18%
71.35%
79.71%
81.97%
76.11%
76.31%
71.54%
58.98%
65.28%
59.30%
60.91%
60.59%
67.02%
64.66%
Legend:
n Continue Buying
Stocks
Update
Stocks
Update
Volume 5, No. 19
n Stop Buying
October 2014
Page 4 of 8
STOCK
SYMBOL
DATE
BOUGHT
PRICE
BOUGHT
PRICE
TODAY
YOUR
RETURN
BUY BELOW
PRICE
TARGET
PRICE
EXPECTED
GROWTH
MBT
TOTAL
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
50.06
55.69
52.85
50.40
48.34
50.33
47.60
49.42
55.23
61.60
60.20
62.13
60.55
65.38
65.10
67.24
72.38
78.75
81.90
82.81
84.70
78.89
77.00
84.65
86.95
80.55
73.20
73.75
79.55
81.40
79.70
83.50
85.15
85.75
88.00
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
83.65
67.09%
50.22%
58.28%
65.97%
73.06%
66.20%
75.74%
69.26%
51.46%
35.80%
38.95%
34.65%
38.15%
27.94%
28.49%
24.41%
15.57%
6.22%
2.14%
1.01%
-1.24%
6.03%
8.64%
-1.18%
-3.80%
3.85%
14.28%
13.42%
5.15%
2.76%
4.96%
0.18%
-1.76%
-2.45%
-4.94%
0.00%
24.29%
78.88
78.88
78.88
78.88
78.88
78.88
78.88
83.07
83.07
93.91
93.91
93.91
93.91
93.91
104.35
104.35
113.04
129.57
129.57
129.57
129.57
129.57
119.20
91.68
91.68
91.68
91.68
86.96
86.96
86.96
86.00
86.00
86.00
96.50
96.50
96.50
93.60
93.60
93.60
93.60
93.60
93.60
93.60
108.00
108.00
108.00
108.00
108.00
108.00
108.00
120.00
120.00
130.00
149.00
149.00
149.00
149.00
149.00
149.00
114.60
114.60
114.60
114.60
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
111.00
111.00
111.00
86.96%
68.09%
77.11%
85.71%
93.65%
85.97%
96.64%
118.54%
95.55%
75.32%
79.40%
73.84%
78.36%
65.19%
84.33%
78.48%
79.61%
89.21%
81.93%
79.93%
75.91%
88.87%
93.51%
35.38%
31.80%
42.27%
56.56%
35.59%
25.71%
22.85%
25.47%
19.76%
17.44%
29.45%
26.14%
32.70%
64.81%
Legend:
n Continue Buying
Stocks
Update
Stocks
Update
Volume 5, No. 19
n Stop Buying
October 2014
Page 5 of 8
STOCK
SYMBOL
DATE
BOUGHT
PRICE
BOUGHT
PRICE
TODAY
YOUR
RETURN
BUY BELOW
PRICE
TARGET
PRICE
EXPECTED
GROWTH
MEG
TOTAL
MER
TOTAL
SMPH
TOTAL
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
4.23
3.67
3.15
3.40
3.21
3.64
3.58
3.23
3.36
3.78
4.43
4.65
4.51
4.47
4.26
4.30
258.00
260.00
16.90
16.40
15.10
14.68
14.70
14.90
14.90
16.34
16.18
16.52
15.40
16.64
16.50
4.65
4.65
4.65
4.65
4.65
4.65
4.65
4.65
4.65
4.65
4.65
4.65
4.65
4.65
4.65
4.65
260.00
260.00
16.50
16.50
16.50
16.50
16.50
16.50
16.50
16.50
16.50
16.50
16.50
16.50
16.50
9.93%
26.70%
47.62%
36.76%
44.86%
27.75%
29.89%
43.96%
38.39%
23.02%
4.97%
0.00%
3.10%
4.03%
9.15%
8.14%
22.39%
0.78%
0.00%
0.39%
-2.37%
0.61%
9.27%
12.40%
12.24%
10.74%
10.74%
0.98%
1.98%
-0.12%
7.14%
-0.84%
0.00%
4.83%
4.16
4.16
4.16
3.89
3.89
3.89
3.89
3.89
3.95
4.70
4.70
4.70
4.70
4.70
4.58
4.58
284.00
284.00
17.20
17.20
17.20
16.73
16.73
16.73
16.80
16.80
16.80
16.80
17.60
17.60
17.60
4.78
4.78
4.78
4.87
4.87
4.87
4.87
4.87
4.54
5.48
5.48
5.48
5.48
5.48
5.73
5.73
355.00
355.00
21.50
21.50
21.50
19.41
19.41
19.41
19.41
19.41
19.41
19.41
20.30
20.30
20.30
13.00%
30.25%
51.75%
43.24%
51.71%
33.79%
36.03%
50.77%
35.12%
44.97%
23.70%
17.85%
21.51%
22.60%
34.51%
33.26%
34.00%
37.60%
36.54%
37.07%
27.22%
31.10%
42.38%
32.22%
32.04%
30.27%
30.27%
18.79%
19.96%
17.49%
31.82%
22.00%
23.03%
27.58%
Legend:
n Continue Buying
Stocks
Update
Stocks
Update
Volume 5, No. 19
n Stop Buying
October 2014
Page 6 of 8
STOCK
SYMBOL
TIME
RECOMMENDED
ESTIMATED
TIME HELD
PRICE
RANGE
ESTIMATED
RETURN
Alliance Global
AGI
January 2013 to
February 2013
1 Month
P17.54 to P20.50
16.88%
Meralco
MER
January 2013 to
April 2013
3 Months
P268.00 to P377.00
28..05%
First Philippine
Holdings
FPH
25 Months
P63.18 to P95.20
32.92%%
JG Summit
Holdings
JGS
February 12 to
October 2013
18 Months
P25.75 to P43.50
39.96%
STOCK
SYMBOL
TIME
RECOMMENDED
ESTIMATED
TIME HELD
PRICE
RANGE
ESTIMATED
RETURN
Ayala Land
ALI
9 Months
P15.09 to P21.65
35%
Nickel Asia
NIKL
2 Months
P23.75 to P26.20
10.32%
Bank of The
Philippine Islands
BPI
February 2012 to
November 2012 (4th week)
10 Months
P68.45 to P91.00
34.29%
Ayala Corporation
AC
October 2012 to
December 2012
(2nd week)
2 Months
P440.00 to P520.00
17.65%
SM Prime
Holdings
SMPH
February 2012 to
December 2012 (1st week)
10 Months
P12.48 to P17.00
27.75%
Alliance Global
AGI
January 2013 to
February 2013
1 Month
P17.54 to P20.50
16.88%
Meralco
MER
January 2013 to
April 2013
3 Months
P268.00 to P377.00
28..05%
First Phlippine
Holdings
FPH
25 Months
P63.18 to P95.20
32.92%%
JG Summit
Holdings
JGS
February 12 to
October 2013
18 Months
P25.75 to P43.50
39.96%
(Disclaimer: Past performance doesnt guarantee that youll have the exact same results in the future. After all, your
earnings all depend on the markets performance.)
Mike Vias is an Investment Trainer of COL Financial Group, Inc. He is a Certified Securities Representative
and Certified Investment Solicitor.
Stocks
Update
Stocks
Update
Volume 5, No. 19
October 2014
Page 7 of 8