Introduction

Process Estimation Methods

Empirical Estimation Models
Conclusions for our Project

Project Estimation
Gabriele Czermin
Fachhochschule Frankfurt am Main University of Applied Science

7.12.2009

Gabriele Czermin

Project Estimation

Introduction
Process Estimation Methods
Empirical Estimation Models
Conclusions for our Project

Contents

Introduction

Process Estimation Methods

Empirical Estimation Models

Conclusions for our Project

Gabriele Czermin

Project Estimation

Introduction
Process Estimation Methods
Empirical Estimation Models
Conclusions for our Project

Software Project Estimation

Motivation
Estimation of resources
Estimation of costs
Estimations for a schedule of a project
Problems to estimate our project
lack of experience
no access to good historical data
do quantitative predictions bases on qualitative information
difficulties to estimate project size and complexity
Cost and effort estimation is not an exact science.

Gabriele Czermin

Project Estimation

Introduction
Process Estimation Methods
Empirical Estimation Models
Conclusions for our Project

Lines of Code (LOC)

LOC is based on the size of Software. Function estimates have to
be combined for overall project estimate.
Advantages
can be easily counted
many existing software estimation models use LOC
existing literature
Disadvantages
language dependent
shorter but better structured programs are penalized
can not easily accommodate nonprocedural languages
difficult to estimate before analysis and design have been
completed
Gabriele Czermin

Project Estimation

Introduction
Process Estimation Methods
Empirical Estimation Models
Conclusions for our Project

Function Point Calculation Parameters

FP is estimated for each function or class. Function estimates have
to be combined for overall project estimate. 5 Measurement
Parameters
Number of user inputs
Number of user outputs
Number of user inquiries
Number of files
Number of external interfaces
Estimated weighting factors based on complexity of the parameters
are associated which each count.

Gabriele Czermin

Project Estimation

Introduction
Process Estimation Methods
Empirical Estimation Models
Conclusions for our Project

Complexity Adjustment Values

Based on 14 questions (e.g. is performance critical, are inputs,

outputs, files complex) complexity adjustment values are
determined. The questions are answered using a range from 0 (not
important or applicable) to 5 (absolute essential). The formula to
compute function points is:
P
FP = counttotal (0, 65 + 0, 01 ii=1 (Fi ))
where counttotal is the sum of weighted calculation parameters and
Fi is a complexity adjustment value

Gabriele Czermin

Project Estimation

Introduction
Process Estimation Methods
Empirical Estimation Models
Conclusions for our Project

more function oriented metrics

Extensions to FP are Feature Points( for complex algorithms)

and 3D Function Points (developed by Boeing for real time
systems)
Range Estimation bases on most likely, optimistic and
pessimistic estimate
S = (Sopt + 4Sm + Spess )/6
where S is estimated size
other estimations use the numbers or classes or functions for
sizing

Gabriele Czermin

Project Estimation

Introduction
Process Estimation Methods
Empirical Estimation Models
Conclusions for our Project

Process Based Estimation

Based on the Process to be used.

The Process is decomposed to a number of tasks.
The effort required to accomplish each task is estimated.
Costs and effort for each function and software process activity
are computed as the last step.

Gabriele Czermin

Project Estimation

Introduction
Process Estimation Methods
Empirical Estimation Models
Conclusions for our Project

Principals of Empirical Estimation

Empirical estimation methods are functions of LOC or FP. These

Models are derived from a sample of projects. They must be
calibrated to the local project.

Gabriele Czermin

Project Estimation

Introduction
Process Estimation Methods
Empirical Estimation Models
Conclusions for our Project

COCOMO and COCOMO II

The Constructive Cost Model was developed by Barry Boehm.

It is one of the most widely used Software Cost Estimation
Models.
The calculations are based on LOCs or FPs

Gabriele Czermin

Project Estimation

Introduction
Process Estimation Methods
Empirical Estimation Models
Conclusions for our Project

Scale Drivers in COCOMOII

There are 5 Scale Drivers

Preceedentedness
Development Flexibility
Architecture Risk Solution
Team Cohesion
Process Maturity

Gabriele Czermin

Project Estimation

Introduction
Process Estimation Methods
Empirical Estimation Models
Conclusions for our Project

Cost Drivers and Calculation

There are 17 different costdrivers, which can be set from low

to very high. e. g.in a safety critical system the required
reliability would be set to very high.
How to calculate the effort according to COCOMO II
from scale- and costdrivers can be seen best on an internetTool:
http://sunset.usc.edu/research/COCOMOII/cocomo_main.html

Gabriele Czermin

Project Estimation

Introduction
Process Estimation Methods
Empirical Estimation Models
Conclusions for our Project

The Software Equitation

The Software Equitation Formula bases on data collected from

over 4000 software projects.
It has the form E = (LOC B 0,333 /P)3 t14
with
- E= effort in person-month or -years
- t= project duration
- B= special skills factor
- P=productivity factor, can be derived from local project data

Gabriele Czermin

Project Estimation

Introduction
Process Estimation Methods
Empirical Estimation Models
Conclusions for our Project

Comparison of Estimation Methods

LOC is not suitable for OOP-Projects

FP is suitable for OOP Projects, but it is difficult for us to
determine weighting and complexity factors
Empirical Estimation Models (e.g. COCOMO II) base on FP or
LOC
Process based Estimation seems to suit best for our project

Gabriele Czermin

Project Estimation

Introduction
Process Estimation Methods
Empirical Estimation Models
Conclusions for our Project

Proposal to estimate our project based on the process

Task
Function
Algorithm
Clock
Alarm
Battery
Pump
Insulin Res.
GUI

CC

Planing

Risk
Anal.

Analysis

Design

Totals

Gabriele Czermin

Project Estimation

Code

Test

CE

Tot.

Introduction
Process Estimation Methods
Empirical Estimation Models
Conclusions for our Project

Prof. Wagner Script Software Analysis, Winterterm 2008,2009

http://sunset.usc.edu/research/COCOMOII/cocomo_main.html

Gabriele Czermin

Project Estimation