Scientific Annals of the Danube Delta Institute for Research and Development, Tulcea Romania 2001

HUMAN POPULATION DINAMICS FORECAST WITHIN

FLUVIO-MARITIME PART OF THE DANUBE DELTA
Vasilica IGN TESCU1, Mihaela CONDUR2
1

National Institute for Research and Development Danube Delta Tulcea

165, Babadag str., Ro-8800 Tulcea / Romania, E-mail: ignatescu@indd.tim.ro
2
Environmental Protection Inspectoate-Constanta County
Abstract: The Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve human population represent an important actor in
assessing the strategy for the sustainable development of the socio-economic systems.
The fluvio-maritime Delta is the part of the Danube Delta with the highest areas surrounding the
strictly protected zones where economic activities are not allowed. In this part of the Danube Delta
Biosphere Reserve the local communities are grouped in six rural settlements: Sfantu Gheorghe and
C.A. Rosetti - with 4 villages and one hamlet and one city: Sulina. The results of the studies carried
out in these communities showed that the local population, which is involved in, and dependent, more
or less on the use of the natural resources, is of 2204 inhabitants settled in 946 households. These
figures indicate that the population density in the area is high enough and these setlements are
almost compact. The number of the entire population of the fluvio-maritime delta decreased in the last
three decades with 17,8 % and with 6,5% in comparison with the last census. The greatest
decreasing was recorded within rural settlements. The increasing and/or decreasing of the inhabitants
number is due to the total demography stem: the natural stem and the migratory one. The age
structure of the population indicate small percentages of the young category in comparison with the
third age category which has recorded 18,0% of the entire population. These results lead us to the
conclusion that the eldering population tendency is occuring in the fluvio-maritime part of the Danube
Delta. The studies regarding the forecast of the sustainable use of the natural resources and the
socio-economic development were carried out in each settlement. The results have pointed out that
the population number will record a 3-4% increasing on short term and a 5-8% increasing on a
medium term.
Matherial and methods
For the elaboration of these study statistical methods were used, for collecting and processing of data,
for informing and documentation in field, sociologic enquiry, documents existing in villages and towns
and at County Statistics.
Results and discusions
In 2000 year, in that area, were 7297 inhabitants representing 52.4 % from entire population of
Danube Delta. Average density reported to administrative territory is quite low, meaning 6.4
inhabitants /square km. Large bodies of water determine the density of population reported to land
surface to be higher, that means 7,6 inhabitants on square km. The lowest density (128,3 inhabitants
in 56,5 families on square km reported to villages surface) is recorded to C.A.Rosetti village. The hight
density of population is registered in Sfantu Gheorghe village with 850 families with 2024 inhabitants
on square km.-reported to village surface) (fig. No 1).
Human Population development
By studying the population of the last three decades it appears the fact that the number decrease with
17.8% in fluvio maritime delta, and comparing with the data of the last census the population decrease
with 6.6%.
Studying data of the population it appear the fact that the number, in maritime delta, decrease in a
slower manner than in river delta for the period between 1971-2000. After 1992 (time of last census) it
is registered a approximate stability of the population, in maritime delta, the decrease is only 0.8 % per
year. By the data from local councils the situation is different (Fig. 2 and Fig. 3).

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Scientific Annals of the Danube Delta Institute for Research and Development, Tulcea Romania 2001

loc. Km2 /sup. intravilan

nr. gospodarii/sup intravilan

2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
C.A.Rosetti

Sfantu Gheorghe

Total mediu rural

Total mediul urban

Total delta fluviomarina

Fig no 1 Inhabitants on square km.-reported to village surface

anul 1992

anul 2000

9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Sfantu Gheorghe

C.A.Rosetti

Total mediul rural

Fig. 2 Human population dinamics in fluvio maritime delta

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Sulina

Total delta fluviomaritima

Scientific Annals of the Danube Delta Institute for Research and Development, Tulcea Romania 2001

1000

Evolutia 1971-2000

Evolutia 1992-2000

500
0
-500

Sulina

Sfantu Gheorghe

C.A.Rosetti

-1000

total mediul rural Total delta fluviomaritima

-1500
-2000
-2500

Fig 3 Population evolution in numbers

The rural zone lost over 50% of its population, in the same time in Sulina town the population increase
with over 17% that fact , obvious , on behalf of migrating actions of the village population to town.
In 2000, C.A. Rosetti was registered with 60.3% less population than 1971 and Sf. Gheorghe with
33.5%.
Comparing to 1992, at large view, the decreasing of number of inhabitants since 2000 was 6.6% with
5.2% in rural zones and 7.2% in Sulina Town. This last data confirm the stability of the population.
After 1992 it is a decrease of the number even in Sulina town, as a result of deplete of economic
activities, especially industry and transport .
Increasing and/or decreasing of the number of inhabitants is given by the total demographic stem that
means natural stem and migratory one.
In towns (Sulina) the increasing of number of inhabitants in 1971-2000 was determined by increasing
of migratory stem. The decreasing of the number of the population is determined, especially in the last
ten years, by important decrease of natural stem. Fig 4 presents the situation in 2000 that is the same
for early years
Fig.4 The movement of population in fluvio maritime delta

Sulina

Sfantu Gheorghe

C.A.Rosetti

50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20

Rata spor
migrator

Rata emigrarii

Rata natalitatii Rata mortalitatii

Spor natural

In rural zone the migratory stem is positive, that means a part of people who left at the beginning of
period came back. The natural stem, the situation is the same from other parts of our country,
meaning negative.

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Scientific Annals of the Danube Delta Institute for Research and Development, Tulcea Romania 2001

It is important the fact that this phenomena is happening in a zone that has a positive natural stem
correlated with birth rate, hope of life and low mortality. The correlation was with food diet with lot of
fish, no pollution ad lack of stress.
In our days , the natality rate is low, mortality rare is increasing conducting to a negative natural stem
and with hight values. From figure 4 it can observe that this value is different for different villages from
maritime delta. Comparing with rural zone, Sulina city, natality arise has the smallest value 8 children
/1000 inhabitants that is very small and mortality rate is smaller than rural zone 12.1/ 1000
inhabitants. That conduct to a negative natural stem but relatively small comparing with data from rural
zone. The smaller percent of mortality is correlated with health care system. There is a hospital, a birth
house, pharmacy and communication, transport for intervention and resolve emergency cases and
diagnose and treatment .
At the other side there are 5 villages of C.A. Rosetti hamlet, extremely isolated, low communication,
no equipment, where mortality rate is 29.3/1000 inhabitants, that determining a natural stem over 4
times smaller than in Sulina town. A similar negative situation is at Sf. Gheorghe, where natural stem
is 13.9. The low rate of natality has complex causes, some the same from others parts of our country.
The segment on which can be made modification with a semnificative result not only natality but also
mortality rate is improving by health care.
The population dynamic influenced and influence other demographic index, for example the structure
on age ranges. In fig. No 5 it is presented the situation in 2000. There is not a good situation. The
young population represents only 17.6% and the population over 60 years, is near 18% meaning a
process of growing old throw the population of maritime delta. This process is for all our country , but
is more intense in this area. This phenomena would be a positive one if the older population have a
longer life (hope). But this fact is due the small percent of young population. The real good think is the
segment of population that represents labour hand is enough well represented (64%).
At detailed look it is clear that the big situation is determined by the situation on different zones. In
Sulina town , the population between 15-60 years is in a greater percent than in rural zone (68.6) and
older population percent is smaller. The most difficult problem is in C.A. Rosetti village, where , despite
the greatest percentage of young population (19.4%) the percentage of population at working age is
the smaller (47.7%), with a 33% for old population. An intermediate situation is at Sfantu Gheorghe
where the percentage of population at working age is 60%.
The data for all country, in 1992, have very close values: 0-14 years 22.7%;15-59 years 60.9%; 60
years and over 16.4%. This values are not changing the situation because the trend is for older of the
population. It is fact that this process begins when the percent of old population, over 65 years, is
over 4%, and is obvious when is over 7%. The data for maritime delta were in 2000, for population
over 65 years 12.9%. In rural zones the percentage of this category of population (19.8%) was
greater than in urban zones (10,0%). The percentage of 0-14 years age group represents 17.2% in
urban zones and 18.6% in rural zones. The total situation for range of age and zone in study is
17.6% (fig no 6) .
Conclusions
Analising demographic data before 2000 year it arise the fact that after 1971 occurs a decreasing of
number of inhabitants of fluvio-maritime delta.
It is obvious that after the establish of Danube Delta - Biosphere Protected area, these process of
decreasing, slow and reach a relative stability .
The natural stem is negative so if we analize only this indicator, the number of inhabitants should
decrease with an equal value of its rate.
The point is that natural stem rate is increasing and expected to increase (following socio economic
development) and compensate even cover the lose from natural stem. It is difficult to advance a
number for increase or decrease of the number of population. From some calculations made, for each
village, with taking into account of valorification of natural resources and socio economic
development resulted that population from fluvio maritime delta will have same number or register
a slow increase of about 3-4 % on short terms (5 eyers) and 5-8 % on medium term. (Fig. no 6)
Human population in fluvio maritime delta, heterogenous from ethnic point, with healthy moral and
social principles and representing a hight biologic potential and is capable to consolidate and form
healthy human systems . It depends only of socio-economic politics that will be applied in that area.
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Scientific Annals of the Danube Delta Institute for Research and Development, Tulcea Romania 2001

Fig.5 Range of age for population in fluvio-maritime delta

S ulina

C .A .R ose tti

S f`ntu G heorghe

T otal m ediu l rural

T otal delta fluvio-m aritim a

peste 65 an i
peste 60 an i
peste 40 an i
50-60
40-50
20 -40 ani
15 -39 ani
0 -14 an i
0,0%

10,0%

2 0,0%

30 ,0%

40,0%

50,0%

60,0%

Fig. No 6 Prognosis of number of human population in fluvio maritime delta

2 0 0 0 /1 9 9 2

2 0 0 5 /2 0 0 0

2 0 1 0 /2 0 0 0

110
105
100
95
90
85
C .A .R o s e tti

S f a n tu
Gheorghe

T o ta l m e d iu l
rural

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S u lin a

T o ta l d e lta
f lu v io - m a r itim a