Can Dani Carvajal be Spain's golden boy?

Posted by Rob Train

Helios de la Rubia/Real
Madrid/Getty ImagesWithout a senior cap to his name, Dani Carvajal looks set to become
Spain's first-choice right-back.
On Sunday, a day after the Champions League final, Vicente del Bosque will slash his World
Cup squad from a preliminary 30 to 23 players. Difficult decisions will have to be made.
Diego Costa's recent injury woes might prove to be good news for another forward, while the
current 11 midfielders in the squad have to be whittled down ahead of the finals.
But one position del Bosque should have few doubts about when he reaches for the red pen is
that of starting right-back. Dani Carvajal has had an exceptional season for Real Madrid, so
much so that Alvaro Arbeloa -- winner of 56 caps, a World Cup and two European
championships -- was omitted from the squad entirely. An announcement of international
retirement swiftly followed.
It has been a stratospheric rise for the 22-year-old Carvajal. Last summer, while all eyes were
on Gareth Bale, Asier Illarramendi and Isco, Carvajal rather snuck in under the transfer radar.
Isco was the golden boy at the time, but Carvajal has had the more eye-catching season of the
three young Spanish recruits.
The former Castilla captain had been farmed out to Bayer Leverkusen after two seasons with
the reserves, during which time the team won promotion back to Segunda Division. Despite a
grand total of no top-flight appearances, Carvajal was thrown into the fray in the Bundesliga
and ended the season in Bild's ideal XI and was voted one of the three best right-backs in the
country.
It was little surprise when Real exercised its buy-back option and sent 6.5 million euros in the
direction of Germany to recall a player who had blossomed from a prospect into hot property.
Rudi Voller, Leverkusen's sporting director, said at the time, "It will be a real shame to lose
Dani, but I have said all along that sooner or later Real Madrid would recognise his sporting

value."
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Still, it seemed that Carvajal was destined to spend at least his first season playing understudy
to Arbeloa, a veteran of several Champions League campaigns with experience at the highest
level in the Premier League and La Liga. Quite the opposite occurred. Even before Arbeloa
suffered a knee injury in March, Carvajal had been chipping away at his first-team status. By
season's end, the youngster had made it his own.
"There is something special about him," said Rafa Garcia Cortes, a former Real right-back, in
an interview this week. "He has a liveliness, an anticipation ... he is a much more complete
player than Arbeloa, as he showed in Munich. If Ribery had come up against Arbeloa, he
would have walked all over him."
Certainly, in terms of Spain, the potential for havoc in the opposition half presented by Jordi
Alba and Carvajal will be in del Bosque's mind's eye. At the Confederations Cup last
summer, Spain experimented with one holding midfielder instead of their usual two in the
absence of Xabi Alonso, and del Bosque has often said that the formation is not the be-all and
end-all of a football match. "The 'system' is a photograph, and the players then develop it,"
the coach said rather poetically at the warm-up tournament in Brazil.
But everyone knows del Bosque has a fondness for the false nine, which is often deployed to
occupy an opposition holding midfielder's attention. With Alonso and Sergio Busquets almost
certain to form a dual pivot behind Xavi in Brazil, there will be work to do on the flanks to
open up the opposition. Spain tend to come inside and try the central route and are often
rendered too narrow, giving rivals the opportunity to squeeze the creativity out of the
midfield. In Alba and Carvajal, they have a genuine attacking threat that can stretch a defence
and win del Bosque's side valuable space.
Both Carvajal and Alba are good crossers of the ball, comfortable with it at their feet and able
to pick out a decisive pass. Logic dictates that del Bosque will take one starter and one
backup in each full-back position. Juanfran has had an incredible season with Atletico,
culminating in his performance against Barcelona in the final, title-deciding game. Cesar
Azpilicueta performed an act of regicide similar to Carvajal's in ousting Ashley Cole from the
Chelsea lineup, but the former Marseille man spent most of the season at left-back rather than
his natural right-back position as a result. One will have to be jettisoned, with Alba and
Alberto Moreno sure to travel as the squad's left-backs.
Despite being one of only two outfield players -- and the only defender -- without a senior
cap, Carvajal has done enough this season to warrant a place on the plane.

Atletico proves money isn't everything

Posted by Rory Smith

Jose Mourinho spent most of this season perpetuating it. Arsene Wenger has espoused it for
years, too. So did Rafael Benitez.
It extends way beyond the Premier League, though, into every major European competition.
It is perhaps the most pervasive idea in football today, one that is universally accepted by
coaches, players, executives, fans. It is this: that where the money lies is where the trophies
go.
Everyone knows the key figure. It first emerged -- at least to a mass audience -- in Simon
Kuper and Stefan Szymanskis book "Soccernomics." It is an excellent work, one that paved
the way for a different analysis of football, but in among its many insights, one has entered
the games consciousness in the five years since it was published more than any other.
Only one is quoted regularly by pundits, by fans -- and not just those whose interest borders
on obsession -- by directors and by managers: that 92 percent of the time league finish
correlates with wage spend. The team that pays its players the most -- and by extension, can
afford the best players -- will finish top a little more frequently than nine times out of ten.
Subsequent research has suggested the correlation is a little lower, but regardless, the
message has stuck. Mourinho made it clear from the moment of his return to England that it
was Manchester City who should be under pressure to win the title, because they spent more
on wages than anyone else (in the world, in any sport, it turned out).
In the decade since Arsenal last won the title, Wenger has become a frequent evangelist for
the idea that his side cannot be expected to compete with the wage bills run up at the Etihad
Stadium, Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford. Benitez adopted that stance at Liverpool, too,
both in terms of wages and (though it is not nearly so effective a guide) outlay in the transfer
market; perhaps his most regrettable legacy to English football is that his reign somehow
taught everyone the words net and spend.
Now, it is not a staggering revelation to suggest that the richest teams have the best players.
That has always been the way. But what that one figure in "Soccernomics" did was change
the way we thought about who should finish where in the league; it gave us a guide for what
was good, what was bad, and what was somewhere in between.
Consider Tottenhams apparently perpetual search for a new manager. Every time they finish
fifth or sixth, Daniel Levy, the clubs chairman, feels his trigger finger pulse. He is widely
decried for acting despite what the figures show: Spurs have the fifth- or sixth-highest wage
bill pretty much every season. The manager -- whether it is Harry Redknapp, Andre VillasBoas, Tim Sherwood, the guy Sherwood got out of the stands against Aston Villa -- is only
doing what the financial reality allows him to do. Levy wants more; the rest of us know
better.
That idea, that football is decided not on the pitch but on the balance sheet, has become
received wisdom in the five years since "Soccernomics." We accept that, to some extent, the
game is predestined. Football has always been about money, but more than ever we see it
now not as one of a multitude of factors but as a determinant. The competitive balance of

every major league is dwindling, with the top handful of sides ever less likely to be
interrupted by a challenge from below. We know now that money settles matters.

GettyImagesDiego
Simeone's success at Atletico Madrid has challenged the belief that more money equals more
success.
And then along came Atletico Madrid.
The figures here are familiar too. Atletico have a budget that is a fifth of that enjoyed by
Barcelona and Real Madrid. They are saddled with towering debt -- the legacy of years of
financial mismanagement -- and they have a wage bill of just 54 million pounds, lower not
only than that of Queens Park Rangers but of 13 teams in the Premier League. To put it in
perspective: Atletico pay their players as much as Bolton Wanderers did in 2012.
Bolton were relegated that year. Atletico have beaten the most expensive side ever assembled,
Real Madrid, and a side that just a few years ago was the greatest team in history to the
Spanish title. On Saturday, they could win their first-ever European Cup. They are a direct
contravention of the golden rule of 21st-century football. The trophies are not going where
the money lies.
Diego Simeones team are not the first surprise side to win a major European title in the two
decades since footballs Year Zero, back in 1992. Montpellier winning Ligue 1 in 2012 would
have been shocking enough in any year, let alone the season when Qatar started pumping
money into Paris Saint-Germain. Stuttgart and Wolfsburg have both won the Bundesliga in
the last 10 years, too, against the odds.
There is something different about Atleticos success, though.
It is partly that -- unlike Montpellier, Stuttgart and Wolfsburg -- they have done it in a league
with two giants. The Bundesliga has long been an open field in any season that Bayern are
stricken with chaos; all it takes is one club to lose its edge and anyone can emerge as a
contender. Montpellier struck in the gap between Lyons domination and the money-soaked
era of PSG and Monaco.
Atletico, on the other hand, have not been able to rely on just one side slipping up. They have
to deal with two. Not just any two, either, but a Barcelona side that three years ago ranked as
the best in history and a Real Madrid team that is the most expensive ever assembled. That is

impressive enough.
What is even more striking is that -- for all Barcelonas travails, in particular -- Atletico have
not taken advantage of a stumble. Barcelona and Real both got 87 points in La Liga. That is
not up to their usual standards, but it is not bad at all; it is enough to win most leagues in most
years. Barcelona got to the quarterfinals of the Champions League -- only beaten by Atletico
-- and Real have made the final.

Andrew Yates/AFP/Getty
ImagesAlthough rich owners like Sheikh Mansour can recruit some of the best players in the
world, under the perfect circumstances, well-trained underdogs can have success.
To suggest they have gone bad at the time Atletico have come good is overly simplistic. They
have slowed a little, yes, but not by much. It is just that Atletico have caught them up. If you
require further evidence, the Champions League provides it. Atletico beat Chelsea and AC
Milan in the knockout rounds. They might have emerged from a relatively kind group with
Zenit St Petersburg and FC Porto, but they did so in emphatic style. If their success was
entirely reliant on Real and Barcelonas failings, they would not be in the Champions League
final.
There is one final difference, too: Atletico have been building to this. They have won the
Europa League, the Copa del Rey and the European Super Cup under Simeone, too. This
title, this arrival in the latter stages of the Champions League, was signposted. This is not a
one-off. That means there is no reason to assume it is a freak, a fluke, something that could
only happen when the stars are aligned just so.
There is a message in all of this. It is not the broader social message Simeone hinted at in his
victory speech on Sunday night, channeling his inner Obama, but as a pure footballing one, it
is pretty powerful. It is this: money is not the be-all and end-all. The established order can be
usurped.
It is dangerous, of course, to build a rule around an exception. There are some exceptional
circumstances at Atletico: the curious ownership model, the role of the Doyen Investment
Fund and Jorge Mendes, the super-agent, all of which means that they can access better
players than their financial reality should really allow. Then there was the lack of injuries, the
form of Diego Costa -- but that should not detract from what they have achieved, from what
they have shown.

For years, we have accepted the idea that nothing can combat the effects of money. Wenger,
Benitez, Mourinho, everyone has told us that the law laid down by the mighty wage bill is
cast in iron. We have been told to get used to the established hierarchy, that it is impossible,
now, to change it. Atletico -- combined, to some extent, with Borussia Dortmund -- have
shown that is not true.
Yes, you have to be perfect. You have to do everything right. You have to be fastidious in
your preparation and devastatingly effective in your delivery. You have to find that curious
alchemy of a coach, a squad and a club that just fits. But if you do, if you get everything
right, football is not the billionaire's playground we have been taught to think it is.