To China with a clear strategy

The combination of an excess of nationalism, belief in exceptionalism, and of the

inevitability of a Sino-centric world is an aspect India cannot overlook during
Prime Minister Narendra Modis visit to China. He must focus clearly on the
strategic aspects of the relationship, and less on trade and economic ties.
Prime Minister Narendra Modis forthcoming visit to China, beginning May 14, is of considerable
interest not only to peoples inhabiting the two countries, but also to leaders and strategic analysts
globally.
In China, Mr. Modi will be visiting Xian, Beijing and Shanghai over three days, before leaving for
Mongolia and South Korea. Mr. Modis visit follows Chinese President Xi Jinpings trip to India
in September 2014. There is a great deal hinging on its outcome with China being viewed today as
a pivot-state, and India the only nation in the region capable of maintaining the balance in the
region.
For his part, Mr. Modi has, no doubt, indicated that trade and economic ties with China would be
his main priority. However, there is much more to an Indian Prime Ministers visit to China than
economic relations unstated though this may be. This visit is again taking place at a time when
China has unveiled a new strategic vision, and elements of the strategy conform to Sun Tzus
principle of winning without fighting. It implicitly includes rewarding nations that it
perceives as friends and, by implication, excluding nations that stand in its way.
New security paradigm
China is also currently affording an opportunity to nations in the region to become a part of a
Beijing-contrived security alliance, holding out the promise of a new Asian security paradigm,
previously embedded in Chinese President Xi Jinpings Code of Conduct for Asia (2014). The
latter contained a veiled warning to countries forging military alliances to counter China.
Perhaps, having waded too far out by its references to the issue of maritime disputes in the
South China Sea at various regional fora, and more explicitly in the Joint Strategic Vision for
the Asia-Pacific and the Indian Ocean region following the U.S. President Barack Obama-Modi
meeting in New Delhi in January this year, the Prime Minister may, hence, need to indulge in
some intricate balancing acts to win the confidence of his hosts.
Many Western analysts believe that China is presently demonstrating a degree of strategic
autism, resulting from its growing power. The Indian side needs to factor this in its
calculations. Under President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, China had, by and large,
displayed a benign face. It was during this period, in 2008, that India and China unveiled a
Joint Strategic Vision for the 21st Century. This was considered unusual even then for China
generally finds it difficult to endorse a common vision.
Under Mr. Xi, China has moved away from Deng Xiaopings injunction to hide our capabilities
and bide our time and never claim leadership. It now countenances the employment of
diplomacy as an instrument for the effective application of Chinese power in support of Chinas
ambitious and long-term foreign policy agenda.

Effectively, therefore, the 2008 Shared Vision Concept is all but buried, and it would be useful
to see what happens next. The Indian side must avoid falling into any kind of trap of arriving at
decisions on strategic issues, made seemingly easy by the Chinese employing very simplified,
schematic representations of highly complex realities.
Meanwhile, current realities in the region are becoming more complex having entered a period
fraught with change.
The emergence of new dangers in West Asia, the uncertainty in Afghanistan, with the Islamic
State (IS) now siding with the Taliban, tensions among different nations in South-East Asia and
East Asia, and evidence of increasing Chinese assertiveness, have produced an unstable
equilibrium.
Impact of developments
Consequently, while there are many issues that would be uppermost in Mr. Modis mind, the visit
provides an excellent opportunity for him to assess, at first hand, where China is headed. It will
give him a chance to estimate the potential impact of recent developments on Sino-Indian
relations.

The Maritime Silk Road concept is possibly an even

more audacious move, with plans to connect more than
50 countries via the sea and build a network of port
cities along the Silk Road.

The Prime Minister could begin by making a realistic appraisal of Chinas Defence Posture and
the kind of threat this poses to India. Rising defence budgets (the 2015 defence Budget is
estimated at $141.5 billion the 26th year of normal double digit increases since 1989),
unveiling of a host of new state-of-the-art weapons such as the DF-21D Carrier Killer anti-ship
ballistic missile (the Assassins Mace according to the United States) and the J-20 stealth fighter
aircraft, employment of asymmetric tactics which conform to Sun Tzus precepts, all send out a
clear message that China is no longer willing to watch from the sidelines where its immediate and
long-term security interests are concerned.
Outreach programme
Mr. Modi would also have the opportunity to understand, first hand, the implications of Chinas
Outreach Programme. The launch of the New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure
Investment Bank has already demonstrated Beijings determination to build an alternative
financial architecture. The One Belt, One Road initiative (inclusive of a Silk Road Development
Fund) aims to boost connectivity with Chinas Central Asian neighbours, and establish a Eurasian
land corridor from the Pacific Coast to the Baltic Sea, which possibly signals Chinas
determination to undermine the U.S. Pivot to Asia.
The Maritime Silk Road concept is possibly an even more audacious move, with plans to connect
more than 50 countries via the sea and build a network of port cities along the Silk Road. This
could well result in circumventing and circumscribing Indias own outreach diplomacy.

The ambit of Chinas Public Diplomacy including the rapid expansion of Confucius Institutes
(there are over 415 such institutes around the globe including around 15 in India at present) also
merits the Prime Ministers attention. The interconnecting links between these Institutes and the
authorities in China are matters which require to be better understood in the context of Chinas
current soft power offensive. As in the case of Chinas Peaceful Rise, there is room for worry
and concern.
China has already notched up several diplomatic successes some of these will have an adverse
impact on Indias external relations. The transformation in China-Russia relations is clearly one.
This has been facilitated by the $400 billion gas deal, but it should not be overlooked that Russia
was possibly the first overseas destination for Mr. Xi. What should specially concern India and
Mr. Modi, is that China and Russia are now determined to deepen their comprehensive strategic
partnership and contribute to lasting world peace. Likewise, China has gained a strategic
beachhead in West Asia with its Iran connection. China is reaping the reward of standing by Iran.
This will clearly put India on the back foot in a region which it has carefully nursed for a long
time.
China-Pakistan connection
However, it is the further deepening of the China-Pakistan connection that should be cause for
graver concern, and Mr. Modi could seek from his Chinese host what exactly Chinas intentions
are. The $46 billion promised by China for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which would
link western China with the Gwadar port in Pakistan through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK),
by itself is worthy of Indias attention, but it is also apparent that the quid pro quo includes
China gaining strategic access to the Gwadar port. The pivot to Pakistan in recent months,
reflects Mr. Xis personal preferences after the equivocation of the Hu-Wen period.
All in all, it might be useful for the Prime Minister to tread with caution lest unexpected
consequences follow improbable causes. This is specially true when matters relate to the rules of
engagement between neighbouring states that have witnessed troubled relations in the past.
The underlying reason for concern is that China seems to be maximising power without purpose.
The logic of strategy of such situations is that it inevitably provokes a confrontational
atmosphere.
In Chinas evaluation, it is already the predominant power in the region. It now seeks to translate
its power into influence. Sharing power is farthest from its mind, and strategic altruism is not
a quality that China or for that matter most countries possesses. India must remain alert to
these eventualities when matters concerning strategic realities are discussed.
The combination of an excess of nationalism, belief in exceptionalism, and of the inevitability of a
Sino-centric world that is being fostered under President Xi Jinping, does have inevitable
consequences which countries like India cannot overlook. This requires Mr. Modi to focus clearly
on the strategic aspects of the relationship, and less on trade and economic ties. It is the strategic
content that heightens the importance of a meeting of minds when the leaders of India and China
meet.
(M.K. Narayanan is a former National Security Advisor and former Governor of West Bengal.)