Jane Hanger

905302277
POR
IA4
1.
>> P = [ 0.5 0.3 0.2; 0.2 0.6 0.2; 0.3 0.2 0.5]
P=
0.5000
0.2000
0.3000

0.3000
0.6000
0.2000

0.2000
0.2000
0.5000

0.3850
0.4120
0.3580

0.2780
0.2780
0.3050

>> P^3
ans =
0.3370
0.3100
0.3370

>> P^6667254
ans =
0.3265
0.3265
0.3265

0.3878
0.3878
0.3878

0.2857
0.2857
0.2857

0.3000
0.6000
0.2000

0.2000
0.2000
0.5000

>> P
P=
0.5000
0.2000
0.3000
>> n=3
n=
3
>> target = 3
target =
3
>> itmax = 500
itmax =

500
>> [f,fptMean,fptMoment2,fptVar, fptCMean, fptCMoment2, ...
fptCVar, fptCStdDev] = CondFpt(P, n, target, itmax);
The vector of probs of ever hitting the target state,
conditioned on definitely hitting the target state:
f=
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
The vector of conditional fpt means, given the initial state
and given that the target state is eventually visited:
fptCMean =
5.0000
5.0000
3.5000
The vector of conditional fpt variances, given the initial state
and given that the target state is eventually visited:
fptCVar =
20.0000
20.0000
16.2500
The vector of conditional fpt std. dev.s, given the initial
state and given that the target state is eventually visited:
fptCStdDev =
4.4721
4.4721
4.0311
>> P
P=
0.5000
0.2000
0.3000

0.3000
0.6000
0.2000

>> eye(3)
ans =
1
0

0
1

0
0

0.2000
0.2000
0.5000

>> work = eye(3)-P

work =
0.5000 -0.3000 -0.2000
-0.2000 0.4000 -0.2000
-0.3000 -0.2000 0.5000
>> work(1:3,3)=1
work =
0.5000 -0.3000 1.0000
-0.2000 0.4000 1.0000
-0.3000 -0.2000 1.0000
>> RHS = zeros(1,3)
RHS =
0

>> RHS(3) = 1
RHS =
0

>> work
work =
0.5000 -0.3000 1.0000
-0.2000 0.4000 1.0000
-0.3000 -0.2000 1.0000
>> RHS
RHS =
0

>> PI = RHS * inv(work)

PI =
0.3265

0.3878

0.2857

>> PI = RHS / work

PI =
0.3265

0.3878

0.2857

>> PI(1) * 7
ans =
2.2857
>> P
P=
0.5000
0.2000
0.3000

0.3000
0.6000
0.2000

0.2000
0.2000
0.5000

>> n=3
n=
3
>> target = 1
target =
1
>> itmax = 500
itmax =
500
>> [fsupKMatrix, f, fptMean, fptMoment2, fptVar, fptStdDev] = ...
FPT_MATLAB( P, n, target, itmax );
>> fptMean(1)
ans =
3.0625
>> fptMean(3)
ans =
3.7500
>> fptVar(3)
ans =
11.8750
3.
>> P = [ 0.8 0.2 0 0; 0.1 0.8 0.1 0; 0.1 0 0.7 0.2; 0.1 0 0 0.9]
P=

0.8000
0.1000
0.1000
0.1000

0.2000
0
0
0.8000 0.1000
0
0 0.7000 0.2000
0
0 0.9000

>> P^3
ans =
0.5620
0.2190
0.2190
0.2190

0.3880
0.5620
0.0500
0.0500

0.0460
0.1710
0.3450
0.0020

0.0040
0.0480
0.3860
0.7290

>> eye(4)
ans =
1
0
0
0

0
1
0
0

0
0
1
0

0
0
0
1

>> work = eye(4) - P

work =
0.2000 -0.2000
0
0
-0.1000 0.2000 -0.1000
0
-0.1000
0 0.3000 -0.2000
-0.1000
0
0 0.1000
>> work(1:4,4)=1
work =
0.2000 -0.2000
0 1.0000
-0.1000 0.2000 -0.1000 1.0000
-0.1000
0 0.3000 1.0000
-0.1000
0
0 1.0000
>> RHS = zeros(1,4)
RHS =
0

>> RHS(4)=1
RHS =
0

>> PI = RHS *inv(work)

PI =
0.3333

0.3333

0.1111 0.2222

>> PI = RHS / work

PI =
0.3333

0.3333

0.1111 0.2222

>> P
P=
0.8000
0.1000
0.1000
0.1000

0.2000
0
0
0.8000 0.1000
0
0 0.7000 0.2000
0
0 0.9000

>> n = 4
n=
4
>> target = 1
target =
1
>> itmax = 1000
itmax =
1000
>> [fsupKMatrix, f, fptMean, fptMoment2, fptVar, fptStdDev] = ...
FPT_MATLAB( P, n, target, itmax );
>> fptMean(4)
ans =
10.0000
>> fptVar(4)
ans =
90.0000
>> 1/sum(P(1,2:4))
ans =
5

5.
>> P = [ 0.667 0.111 0.111 0.111; 0.25 0.3 0.25 0.2; 0.192 0.231 0.5 0.077; 0.312 0.25 0.438 0]
P=
0.6670
0.2500
0.1920
0.3120

0.1110 0.1110 0.1110

0.3000 0.2500 0.2000
0.2310 0.5000 0.0770
0.2500 0.4380
0

>> work = eye(4) - P

work =
0.3330 -0.1110 -0.1110 -0.1110
-0.2500 0.7000 -0.2500 -0.2000
-0.1920 -0.2310 0.5000 -0.0770
-0.3120 -0.2500 -0.4380 1.0000
>> work(1:4,4) = 1
work =
0.3330 -0.1110 -0.1110 1.0000
-0.2500 0.7000 -0.2500 1.0000
-0.1920 -0.2310 0.5000 1.0000
-0.3120 -0.2500 -0.4380 1.0000
>> RHS = [0 0 0 1]
RHS =
0

>> PI = RHS / work

PI =
0.4120 0.1972
a.
>> 12*PI

0.2838

0.1070

3.4057

1.2843

ans =
4.9436

2.3665

>> sum(12*PI)
ans =
12.0000
>> P^5
ans =

0.4230
0.4065
0.4017
0.4067

0.1938
0.1989
0.2004
0.1988

0.2763
0.2875
0.2908
0.2874

0.1069
0.1071
0.1071
0.1070

0.1607
0.2255
0.2254
0.2108

0.2059
0.3154
0.3628
0.3161

0.1048
0.1070
0.1060
0.1184

>> P^2
ans =
0.5286
0.3522
0.3058
0.3547
>> P^3
ans =
0.4650
0.3852
0.3631
0.3869

0.1807 0.2477 0.1067

0.2063 0.3000 0.1085
0.2119 0.3181 0.1070
0.2052 0.3020 0.1059

>> P^4
ans =
0.4361
0.3999
0.3896
0.4004

0.1897 0.2673 0.1068

0.2011 0.2919 0.1071
0.2041 0.2992 0.1072
0.2007 0.2916 0.1072

>> P*P^2
ans =
0.4650
0.3852
0.3631
0.3869

0.1807 0.2477 0.1067

0.2063 0.3000 0.1085
0.2119 0.3181 0.1070
0.2052 0.3020 0.1059

>> P^2*[3 1 1 1; 1 1.2 1 .8; 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.2; 0.2 .2 .1 0]

ans =
1.8704
1.4610
1.3455
1.4566

0.8042
0.7388
0.7063
0.7262

0.8027
0.7460
0.7232
0.7354

0.6983
0.5956
0.5587
0.5866

0.1807

0.2477

0.1067

>> P^3
ans =
0.4650

0.3852
0.3631
0.3869

0.2063 0.3000 0.1085

0.2119 0.3181 0.1070
0.2052 0.3020 0.1059

>> P
P=
0.6670
0.2500
0.1920
0.3120

0.1110 0.1110 0.1110

0.3000 0.2500 0.2000
0.2310 0.5000 0.0770
0.2500 0.4380
0

>> n = 4
n=
4
>> target = 4
target =
4
>> itmax = 1000
itmax =
1000
>> [fsupKMatrix, f, fptMean, fptMoment2, fptVar, fptStdDev] = ...
FPT_MATLAB( PP, nn, ttarget, itmax );
Undefined function or variable 'PP'.
>> [fsupKMatrix, f, fptMean, fptMoment2, fptVar, fptStdDev] = ...
FPT_MATLAB( P, n, target, itmax );
>> fptMean(4)
ans =
9.3439
>> fptVar(4)
ans =
61.1049
7.
>> P = [ 0.033 0.267 0.6 0.2; 0.333 0 0.133 0.533; 0.2 0.267 0.133 0.4; 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.1]
P=
0.0330
0.3330

0.2670 0.6000 0.2000

0 0.1330 0.5330

0.2000
0.1000

0.2670
0.6000

0.1330
0.2000

0.4000
0.1000

0.2890
0.4442
0.3289
0.1401

0.1751
0.3241
0.2532
0.1864

0.4089
0.1731
0.2755
0.4298

>> P^2
a.
ans =
0.2300
0.0909
0.1621
0.2531

>> work = eye(4) - P

work =
0.9670 -0.2670 -0.6000 -0.2000
-0.3330 1.0000 -0.1330 -0.5330
-0.2000 -0.2670 0.8670 -0.4000
-0.1000 -0.6000 -0.2000 0.9000
>> work(1:4,4) = 1
work =
0.9670 -0.2670 -0.6000 1.0000
-0.3330 1.0000 -0.1330 1.0000
-0.2000 -0.2670 0.8670 1.0000
-0.1000 -0.6000 -0.2000 1.0000
>> RHS = [0 0 0 1]
RHS =
0

>> PI = RHS / work

PI =
0.1789

0.2886

0.2364

0.2962

>> P
P=
0.0330
0.3330
0.2000
0.1000
>> n = 4
n=
4

0.2670 0.6000 0.2000

0 0.1330 0.5330
0.2670 0.1330 0.4000
0.6000 0.2000 0.1000

>> target = 4
target =
4
>> itmax = 1000
itmax =
1000
b.
>> [fsupKMatrix, f, fptMean, fptMoment2, fptVar, fptStdDev] = ...
FPT_MATLAB( P, n, target, itmax );
>> fptMean(1)
ans =
3.7326
>> [f,fptMean,fptMoment2,fptVar, fptCMean, fptCMoment2, ...
fptCVar, fptCStdDev] = CondFpt(P, n, target, itmax)
The vector of probs of ever hitting the target state,
conditioned on definitely hitting the target state:
f=
1.1514
1.0564
1.0523
1.0594
The vector of conditional fpt means, given the initial state
and given that the target state is eventually visited:
fptCMean =
3.2417
2.5419
2.7575
3.4209
The vector of conditional fpt variances, given the initial state
and given that the target state is eventually visited:
fptCVar =
5.3175
5.0577
5.1597
5.2865
The vector of conditional fpt std. dev.s, given the initial
state and given that the target state is eventually visited:

fptCStdDev =
2.3060
2.2489
2.2715
2.2992
f=
1.1514
1.0564
1.0523
1.0594
fptMean =
3.7326
2.6853
2.9017
3.6242
fptMoment2 =
18.2227
12.1686
13.4310
17.9986
fptVar =
4.2905
4.9580
5.0111
4.8639
fptCMean =
3.2417
2.5419
2.7575
3.4209
fptCMoment2 =
15.8262
11.5192
12.7635
16.9889

fptCVar =
5.3175
5.0577
5.1597
5.2865
fptCStdDev =
2.3060
2.2489
2.2715
2.2992
>> fptCMean(1)
ans =
3.2417
c.Given that it is a grip the expected number of times the arm will turn in the next 6 moves is 1.0733
>> PI(1) * 6
ans =
1.0733
d. Over the long run the use of the lift motor id 1.2208 times greater than that of the extention
>> PI(2)/PI(3)
ans =
1.2208
9.
>> P = [0 0.417 0.25 0.333; 0.208 0 0.292 0.5; 0.167 0.389 0 0.444; 0.167 0.5 0.333 0]
P=
0 0.4170 0.2500 0.3330
0.2080
0 0.2920 0.5000
0.1670 0.3890
0 0.4440
0.1670 0.5000 0.3330
0
>> P^2
a. Starting on pad 2 the probability of being on pad 3, 2 jumps later is 0.2185
ans =
0.1841
0.1323
0.1551
0.1596

0.2638
0.4503
0.2916
0.1992

>> work = eye(4) - P

work =

0.2327
0.2185
0.3032
0.1878

0.3195
0.1989
0.2501
0.4535

1.0000 -0.4170 -0.2500 -0.3330

-0.2080 1.0000 -0.2920 -0.5000
-0.1670 -0.3890 1.0000 -0.4440
-0.1670 -0.5000 -0.3330 1.0000
>> work(1:4, 4)= 1
work =
1.0000 -0.4170 -0.2500 1.0000
-0.2080 1.0000 -0.2920 1.0000
-0.1670 -0.3890 1.0000 1.0000
-0.1670 -0.5000 -0.3330 1.0000
>> RHS = [0 0 0 1]
RHS =
0

>> PI = RHS / work

PI =
0.1539

0.3077

0.2308

0.3076

b. The steady state probabilities of the behavior of the frog describe the fraction of the time the frog spends on
lilypad j over the long run, where time of the actual jumps from lily pad i to j are assumed equal in length.
c. The frog does not remember or care where he has been so his likelihood of moving to a particular pad from his
current pad depends only on the distance of that pad.