Ranges (Up till 11.

55am HKT)
Currency

Currency

EURUSD

1.0817-35

EURJPY

134.53-76

USDJPY

124.265-40

EURGBP

0.69545-60

GBPUSD

1.5555-73

USDSGD

1.3707-23

USDCHF
AUDUSD

0.9629-47
0.7354-85

USDTHB
USDKRW

34.45-51
1156.0-1159.9

NZDUSD

0.6560-0.6607

USDTWD

31.193-436

USDCAD

1.2983-1.3006

USDCNH

6.2130-46

AUDNZD

1.1155-1.1235

XAU

1197.2-1106.1

Key Headlines
Definitely there was someone or some people trying to
scoop this up high print 1106.1 from 1097.2. Could the
buyer or buyers be from Shanghai?

RBA release puts pressure AudNzd. Push the cross down

to 1.1158 while Nzd went to 0.6607. Rumour of stops
above 0.6610 but we got to 0.6607 and backed off to
0.6585. Id doubting if there are really stop sell orders up
there.
According to Interest.co.nz, Kiwi Finance Minister Bill
English said perfect storm of supply has created
mountains of milk powder stockpiles in China that
could delay an expected recovery in global dairy prices
until the end of 2015. He added, I dont think theres
much doubt that they are going to pick up, its just a
matter of when and how fast.

Japanese guys we spoke to dont really want to buy

UsdJpy up here; they are mindful that 124.60 was the
level where BOJ Governor Kuroda spoke back on June
10.

UsdJpy, EurUsd and GbpUsd werent interesting. Euro

locked in the 1.08-twenties most of the time. Talk of
Euro bids from 1.0790 and the short term speculators
joining the bids have tagged their stops under 1.0775. I
heard from one source offers are lined up 1.0840-60 and
intraday stops above 1.0870.

RBA July Minutes were touch dovish but Aud move

lower was moderate and I think it was due to the ANZ
Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index. RBA
Governor Glenn Stevens speaks tomorrow at 1.05pm
Sydney at the Anika Foundation Luncheon

Japanese guys we spoke to dont really want to buy

UsdJpy up here; they are mindful that 124.60 was the
level where BOJ Governor Kuroda spoke back on June
10. However, BOJ participating in ETF buying today
gave UsdJpy bid tone. Few guys have offers 124.40-50.

For the 37th consecutive trading day, USDCNY midrate is fixed on this 6.11-handle, proving all the CNY
experts wrong.

In other currency pairs, decent stops in EurGbp atop

0.7020 and buying from 0.6930-20 and strong EurChf
offers above 1.0460.

FX Flows

Asians

Most noticeable price action is spot Gold. Definitely

there was someone or some people trying to scoop this
up. NY ended the precious metal at 1097.0 and during
the twilight hours, we witnessed some skittish price
action, spot Gold attempted to take out the 1100-area. It
was a struggle and finally broke through and touched
1106.1 . Could the buyer or buyers be from Shanghai?
RBA July Policy Minutes were touch dovish. Usual
remarks about the level of Aud further fall likely and
necessary for balanced growth Aud fall in TWI more
modest than versus Usd. Our colleague Sam pointed out
this from RBA, 'Nevertheless, spare capacity remained,
as evidenced by the level of the unemployment rate,
historically low wage growth and unit labour costs that
had been stable for a number of years. On this basis,
members assessed that inflationary pressures were well
contained and likely to remain so in the period ahead.'
Aussie fell from 0.7381 to 0.7365 posted low 0.7358.
Move has been moderate, I believed it is due to the
release of ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer
Confidence Index at 111.8 as supposed to 107 previously.

Usd/Asia stayed firm this morning UsdMyr still

offered at 3.8080 with one who shall not be named
sitting on the offer. Our trader Gary thinks that if the rest
of Usd/Asia continues to climb, then UsdMyr may break
higher.
UsdKrw opens here 1157.3, in line with NDF implied
close in NY. Onshore spot go to 1159.9 and we will be
watching 1160, Gary expects authority to step in.
UsdSgd at 1.3720, should see some resistance ahead of
1.3750, heard some option barrier up there.
For the 37th consecutive trading day, USDCNY mid-rate
is fixed on this 6.11-handle, proving all the CNY experts
wrong. USDCNH continues to be stuck in this 6.21.
Brilliant setup in UsdThb. From my weekend report,
Thai deputy PM MR Pridiyathorn Devakula said weaker
baht will help the country's exports and provide more of
a boost to the struggling economy than a rate cut. He
said he would rather play with the exchange rate to
correct the economy. He likes to see the Thai Baht

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

depreciating a little more. The other news was that

United States Federal Aviation Administration has given
Thailand 65 days to address shortcomings found in its
aviation safety standards. Thai-registered carriers will
face a ban on launching flight services to the US if the
flaws cannot be fixed within the deadline.
UsdThb traded 34.45 to 34.51. Some felt this is overdone
maybe some smoothing needed. Bids are reported
below 34.30 and offers 34.70.

Who said what

Greek Government submits bailout actions bill to
parliament
BOJ June Minutes: Board agrees prices rising in longer
term
BOJ June Minutes: Impact of easy policy continues to
be big
BOJ June Minutes: Price hikes by some firms
spreading
BOJ June Minutes: Output gap to improve steadily
BOJ June Minutes: Weak Jpy, higher labour costs
reflected in prices
RBA July Minutes: Aussie further fall likely and
necessary for balanced growth Aud fall in TWI more
modest than vs Usd
RBA July Minutes: None mining business investment
likely subdued over coming year
RBA July Minutes: Strength in Q1 GDP likely not
carried to Q2
RBA July Minutes: Greece spillover and China equity
volatility need close watching
China MOFCOM: Slower growth in China exports due
to weak external demand
China MOFCOM: China H1 exports outperformed
other major economies
China MOFCOM: H2 exports will improve from H1
China MOFCOM: Chinese companies to get
government support for overseas M/A

News & Data

Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer
Confidence Index 111.8 vs 107
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2fe1085a-2ed1-11e591ac-a5e17d9b4cff.html#axzz3gT82RBgi
WSJ: IBM Sees Worse Currency Hit This Year
International Business Machines Corp. earnings this
year will take a bigger hit from foreign exchange than
company management expected only three months ago.
We are seeing a slightly increased currency impact for
the second half of the year, said Chief Financial Officer
Martin Schroeter during a second-quarter earnings call
on Monday afternoon. He called the hit from currency

substantial, as a stronger dollar is reducing the value of

the companys foreign revenue.
http://blogs.wsj.com/cfo/2015/07/20/ibm-sees-worsecurrency-hit-this-year/?mod=wsj_nview_latest
AFR - 'We ain't seen nothing yet': Chinese
foreign investment in Australian property tipped
to surge
Australians might think Chinese investors have pushed
up property prices, but "we ain't seen nothing yet",
according to Colonial First State Global Asset
Management chief economist Stephen Halmarick who is
tipping the liberalisation of China's capital markets will
inflate asset prices across the globe. In recent weeks
there has been a lot of focus on the challenges facing
China as it opens up its financial markets to foreign
investors, and what the associated volatility means for
other economies like Australia.
http://www.afr.com/markets/we-aint-seen-nothing-yetchinese-foreign-investment-in-australian-propertytipped-to-surge-20150720-gigfaz
The Australian: Why the gold price is tumbling
The bear market in gold took a rather dramatic turn for
the worse yesterday when the price gapped down to its
lowest level in five years due a big sell order in Shanghai.
Surely, when the almost conventional wisdom, as the
supply of paper money massively increases, and it
becomes increasingly distrusted, the world will return to
trusting the only true store of wealth gold. In fact all
those who allocated some of their money to gold bullion,
gold ETFs or gold miners have lost money and the gold
mining companies that were increasing production and
mapping new seams just four years ago are now facing
closure. The fact that all commodity prices have fallen a
lot gold, oil, iron ore, base metals is obviously
terrible news for a commodity exporter like Australia.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/wh
y-the-gold-price-is-tumbling/story-fnp85lcq1227450360707
FT: Exchange rate expert nominated to Fed
board
President Barack Obama intends to nominate economist
Kathryn Dominguez to the Federal Reserves board of
governors, the second vacant seat he has sought to fill
this year as markets await the central banks first rate
rise since the financial crisis. White House officials cited
her expertise in foreign exchange rate behaviour,
emerging markets and international borrowing as being
of particular importance to her nomination.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/dc736bc4-2f19-11e58873-775ba7c2ea3d.html?ftcamp=published_links
%2Frss%2Fhome_us%2Ffeed%2F
%2Fproduct#axzz3gT82RBgi

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

WSJ: Big Banks Stress Level Is Rising

Big banks scored a minor regulatory victory Monday. But
this may be overshadowed by comments from Federal
Reserve officials indicating that annual stress tests could
become even more stringent. The win came in the form
of a change to the way the Fed will calculate a capital
surcharge it applies to global systemically important
banks. The central bank on Monday finalized rules
related to this.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/big-banks-stress-level-isrising-1437426262?mod=wsj_nview_latest
Kathimerini: Greek Capital controls strain bank
activity
Banks across Greece may have reopened their doors
after a forced holiday of over three weeks on Monday but
almost all banking transactions are still prohibited for
households and enterprises, and will stay that way for
some time yet. The problems in the real economy are too
many to list since the imposition of capital controls
erected insurmountable barriers to most transactions.
The problems in the real economy are too many to list
since the imposition of capital controls erected
insurmountable barriers to most transactions.
http://www.ekathimerini.com/199753/article/ekathime
rini/business/capital-controls-strain-bank-activity

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.