Jelena Fedurko - How Is CCPM Differnt - 10 TOCPA - Feb 2013 - India - 22 Feb 2014 - FIN

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com
10th International Conference of the

TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPA
www.tocpractice.com
Feb 21-22, 2014 Noida, India
In which way CCPM

is different?
Jelena Fedurko
TOC Strategic Solutions, Estonia
22 February, 2014
Copyright 2014 by Oded Cohen & Jelena Fedurko
10th International Conference of the TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPA
www.tocpractice.com
Jelena Fedurko
Jelena has 14 years of TOC experience as a
trainer and consultant providing support in TOC
implementations in the areas of people
management, production, supply chain, project
management.
Jelena has worked in Japan, Poland, Turkey, Italy,
Russia, Ukraine, India, China, Chile, Colombia,
Mexico and other countries throughout the world.
Jelena is the author of the books Behind the
Cloud Enhancing logical thinking and Through
Clouds to Solutions. The books present new
developments in the area of working with
assumptions, UDEs and UDE Clouds.
Together with Oded Cohen Jelena has coauthored the book TOC Fundamentals, recently
published in Russian.
She has authored numerous articles on TOC
concepts
and
implementation,
and
has
contributed to and edited several TOC books.
jelenafedurko.gs@gmail.com
www.toc-strategicsolutions.com
www.tocpractice.com
In which way CCPM is different?

1. The realization that every systems performance is governed by
the constraint.
Main types of constraints of a commercial system:
Capacity Constraint a system has a resource which cannot provide capacity that
the systems demands within the required span of time.
Market Constraint the amount of customers orders is not sufficient to sustain the
required growth of the system.
Time Constraint the response time of the system to the requirement of the market
is too long to the extent that it jeopardizes the systems ability to meet its current
commitment to its customers as well as the ability of winning new business.
What is the constraint of the project management?

When does the system create value for the goal of making more money?
At the completion of the project benefits are generated and money invested is
starting to be returned! The shorter is the time to complete the project the better!
Conclusion: Projects have the TIME constraint.

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2. Following 5 Focusing Steps of TOC.
Step 1. Identify (choose) the systems constraint.
In projects it is TIME the longest chain of dependant tasks.
The dependency is not only logical but also resource dependency.
Step 2. Decide how to exploit the systems constraint.
In projects it done through planning of the acceptable and realistic
duration of the project to bring financial benefits.
Step 3. Subordinate everything else to the above decision.
Ensuring that the plan is
realistic
absorbs inevitable fluctuations in the execution phase, and
protected against disruptions.
WE DO NOT REPLAN!!
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2. Following 5 Focusing Steps of TOC.
Step 4. Elevate the systems constraint.

Making more projects with the same resources in the same
period of time.
Step 5. If the constraint is broken go back to step one but do
not allow Inertia to cause the systems constraint.

Ensuring that the system will NOT create
Capacity constraint
Market constraint
Cash constraint (a Capacity constraint type)
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3. Having manageable number of tasks in the plan.
Current and harmful practice
We have seen project plans that include over a thousand tasks with durations
from 2 hours to several weeks.
One director of a big construction company once boasted that every project
manager in their company must follow in detail and make decisions for up to
SEVENTY open tasks on several construction sites EVERY DAY including daily
personal visits to several sites.
What is the quality of detailed following and making decisions in this case?
How many minutes can be spent for each one of 70 open tasks? On average it
makes reviewing 9 open tasks an hour less than 7 minutes per task. It is if the
project manager sits in his office and just opens the files. What about the time
that is needed to visit the construction site and physically move from the area of
one task to another?
TOC Rule not more than 300-400 tasks even in a very big project.
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4. The Project Manager is a MANAGER, NOT an Expert in the subject
matter of tasks, and not a Vice President.
Current and harmful practice
Top managements appoints the best expert in the subject of the project to be the
project manager to ensure that s/he will be able to understand every task in order to
better oversee it.
TOC Rule Project Manager is responsible for maintaining and speeding up the FLOW of
tasks from resource to resource.
The responsibility of understanding every task and ensuring that it is performed by the
qualified resource and the content and way of working on it are appropriate is the
responsibility of the Resource Manager.
OR
A top manager of a VERY high level of authority Vice President for Operations/
Director of Product Development/ Creative Director, etc. is officially appointed as the
Project Manager for an important project.
TOC Recommendation such highly positioned top managers could be Program Directors
but should NOT be given the role of Project Managers.
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5. The project plan MUST have FIXED START DATE AND FIXED
COMPLETION DATE aggressive but realistic.
The PRIME objective of CCPM and the Prime Measurement for projects
completing project ON TIME.
Why?
The project brings benefits only AFTER completion.
Having fixed start date and project completion due date is also a technical
requirement for the CCPM mechanics to work.
This raises a frequent question WHAT IS THE END OF MY PROJECT?
Especially if the project is treated by a company as an Investment project
- New equipment
- New production facility
- New technology
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COMPLETION DATE aggressive but realistic
WHEN IS THE END OF MY PROJECT?
Purchasing new equipment (especially dedicated for a specific
type of product food industry) what is the project end?
When the equipment is installed and produced the first batch?
When the equipment moved to mass production?
When the product for which this equipment was bought has
finished its market life cycle?
Building a new commercial facility what is the project end?
When the construction is completed?
When all premises are sublet to tenants?
Another frequent question: Shouldnt the end of the project be
tied to the return on investment?
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COMPLETION DATE aggressive but realistic
And there is also another frequent question:
WHAT IS THE START OF MY PROJECT?
Is the starting point a decision to investigate an idea?
Is the starting point planning?
Is the stating point the start of the first task (start of the
execution)?
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6. The project plan is built ONLY with the relationship Finish to Start.
G10
B10
M16
Letter and
Colour = Resource
C20
W16
Finish
M12
The end of each task has a tangible deliverable without which

the next task CANNOT START.
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Why is there the requirement Finish to Start?
To allow for the mechanics of PROJECTING the behaviour of the
chain in the execution phase to work.
BUFFER 50% of the chain
T1-10d T2-10d T3-16d
T6-20d
28d
BUFFER IS NOT A
CUSHION
BUT MANAGEMENT
MECHANISM!
Task 1 started and in Day 3 the resource reports that the task faces a difficulty and it will
take not 7 days to complete, but 14.
T1-17d
T2-10d T3-16d
T6-20d
28d
The chain went into the buffer for 7 days

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To allow for the mechanics of PROJECTING the behaviour of the
chain in the execution phase to work.
Day 3: Task 1 started and in Day 3 the resource reports that the task faces a difficulty and it will take not
7 days to complete, but 14. New estimated total task duration is: 3 days (passed) +14 days (projected)
=17 days new estimated total duration of Task1. Estimated duration in the project plan was 10 days.
T1-17d
T2-10d T3-16d
T6-20d
28d
The chain went

into the buffer
for 7 days
Amount of work in days increased protection decreased

Day 6: After the recovery actions on Task 1 the task resource reports that now it will take 6 days
more to complete: 6 days passed+6 days more = total 12 days (instead of estimated 10).
T1-12d T2-10d T3-16d

T6-20d
28d
The chain moved

backwards and
now is only 2 days
in the buffer
We decreased the amount of work and increased protection

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Why is the TOC projection mechanism not going to be helpful for managing the
project if the connection is anything different from Finish to Start?
Supply 4 months
Construction 6 months
Increase in Task Supply is 2 weeks. So
what? How does this increase in
duration reflect on the START of Task
Construction?
Supply 4.5 months
And how often is it discovered that there is delay in supply only WHEN Construction
actually cannot start because the materials are LATE?
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Supply 4 months
We may hear an argument: it is enough if the supplier ships us of the materials
that we may start the Task Construction. Then the relationship is like that:
Supply
first 1/4 mater.
- 1 month
Supply
the rest - 3 months
If the 1/4 of
materials come
with the 2 week
delay:
Supply
first 1/4 mater.
- 1 month
Supply
the rest - 3 months
Or supply can still finish

within the initial
estimation
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Why? Because of the behaviour of

managers: in the planning phase managers
ask for estimations,
in execution they treat estimations as
justified commitments.
Probability of
completion
7. For every task in the project plan we put the estimation of task
duration that has ONLY 50% probability to be completed within the
estimated time or earlier.
Tasks contain a lot of safety!
50%
80%
Time
Durations of estimations with 80% and more probability to be met

are twice longer than durations with 50% probability to be met.
Natural behaviour of people to protect themselves by putting
safety into the estimation.
What impacts conventional estimations of task duration?
Bad multitasking
Students syndrome
Parkinsons Law
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7. For every task in the project plan we put the estimation of task
duration that has ONLY 50% probability to be completed within the
estimated time or earlier.
Letters Project
Numbers Project
Shapes Project
10
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Estimation times Impact of Multitasking
Duration of Project
Shapes
Duration of Project
Numbers
Duration of Project
Letters
Duration of
Project
Shapes
Duration of Project
Numbers
Duration of Project
Letters
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8. The project plan is built based on understanding that the
Constraint in Projects is the Duration of the longest chain.
G10
Letter and
Colour = Resource
B10
M16
M16 - Resource contention!
W16
C20
Finish
M12
Critical Path Promise = 56 days

How realistic is this plan?
What if the plan had 500 tasks, or even 150 tasks? Could one easily see the
resource overlap?
Critical Chain
W16
G10
B10
M12
M16
C20
Finish
64 days
Critical Chain sorts out the resource contention it takes into

consideration both logical AND resource dependency.
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1- Build the project network
Now the projected completion date of the longest chain is 20.08.2013

BUT we have resource contention
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2- Level the resources remove resource contention
The projected completion date of the longest chain moved to 17.09.2013 REALISTIC!
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3 Identify Critical Chain and build resource dependencies
The projected completion date of the longest chain did not change 17.09.2013
New dependencies RESOURCE dependencies are inserted.
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9. The individual safety is removed from each task (due to
putting in the plan 50% probability estimations) and accumulated
in buffers for common CONTROLLED use.
The buffers protect the Critical Chain from the fluctuations in task durations in the
execution phase. Project Buffer is added to the end of the Critical Chain, and Feeding
buffers at the end of each Feeder in the point where the Feeder flows into the
Critical Chain.
The TOC Rule the size of the buffer is 50% of the chain at the end of which it is put.
The projected completion date of the Critical Chain moved to 23.09.2013,

the realistic and PROTECTED projected end of the project is 02.12.2013
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BUFFERS A frequent reservation that we hear: But Buffers make the
duration of the project 50% longer!! VERY WRONG! Compare:
With 80% durations the projected completion date for the project is 05.02.2014.
With 50% durations and buffers the projected completion date for the project is 02.12.2013.
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10. CCPM does NOT work on the principle of TASK DUE DATE!
CCPM works on the principle of Roadrunner- every resource
finishes the task as soon as possible and passes it to the next
resource that will be informed in time and will be waiting.
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11. Tasks performers report NOT How Much They Have Completed
(this is looking backwards) but HOW MANY MORE DAYS IS LEFT
FOR THEM TO COMPLETE THE TASK according to their fresh
estimation. This is looking forward!
TOC
THE PAST
TODAY
THE FUTURE
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12. DAILY projection of the penetration into the buffers gives early
warning that allows to take corrective actions that are not overly
expensive and return the project back on its track.
In the execution phase every day each resource gives the Project
Manager the estimation HOW MANY DAYS ARE LEFT TO COMPLETE
THE TASK.
This data is entered into the system and the system calculates the
projected penetration to the buffers.
The projection works on the principle of a train on the rail
moving forward and backward in time.
Forward consuming the days from the buffer, Backward
returning the days in the buffer.
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Today is 20 May, the resource performing Task C1 (that was supposed to be finished 06 May)
reports that he still needs 15 days to complete.
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Today is 21 May, during the day corrective actions were taken (e.g. expert assistance or adding
resources ), and by the end of the day he reports that now he needs 2 days to complete.
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Buffer penetration Report
% Buffer Consumed
100%
% Longest Chain Complete

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13. Gives the top management quick, comprehensive and clearly
visualized way of the project portfolio status.
Each dot is
a project.

Jelena Fedurko - How Is CCPM Differnt - 10 TOCPA - Feb 2013 - India - 22 Feb 2014 - FIN

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www.tocpractice.

10th International Conference of the

Feb 21-22, 2014 Noida, India

In which way CCPM

10th International Conference of the TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPA

Copyright 2014 by Oded Cohen & Jelena Fedurko

10th International Conference of the TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPA

In which way CCPM is different?

What is the constraint of the project management?

Conclusion: Projects have the TIME constraint.

10th International Conference of the TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPA

In which way CCPM is different?

10th International Conference of the TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPA

In which way CCPM is different?

Step 4. Elevate the systems constraint.

Step 5. If the constraint is broken go back to step one but do

not allow Inertia to cause the systems constraint.

Copyright 2014 by Oded Cohen & Jelena Fedurko

10th International Conference of the TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPA

In which way CCPM is different?

10th International Conference of the TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPA

In which way CCPM is different?

10th International Conference of the TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPA

In which way CCPM is different?

10th International Conference of the TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPA

In which way CCPM is different?

10th International Conference of the TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPA

In which way CCPM is different?

Copyright 2014 by Oded Cohen & Jelena Fedurko

10th International Conference of the TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPA

In which way CCPM is different?

The end of each task has a tangible deliverable without which

Copyright 2014 by Oded Cohen & Jelena Fedurko

10th International Conference of the TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPA

In which way CCPM is different?

The chain went into the buffer for 7 days

10th International Conference of the TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPA

In which way CCPM is different?

The chain went

Amount of work in days increased protection decreased

T1-12d T2-10d T3-16d

The chain moved

We decreased the amount of work and increased protection

10th International Conference of the TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPA

In which way CCPM is different?

Supply 4.5 months

10th International Conference of the TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPA

In which way CCPM is different?

Or supply can still finish

10th International Conference of the TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPA

In which way CCPM is different?

Why? Because of the behaviour of

Durations of estimations with 80% and more probability to be met

10th International Conference of the TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPA

In which way CCPM is different?

Copyright 2014 by Oded Cohen & Jelena Fedurko

10th International Conference of the TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPA

In which way CCPM is different?

Copyright 2014 by Oded Cohen & Jelena Fedurko

10th International Conference of the TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPA

In which way CCPM is different?

M16 - Resource contention!

Critical Path Promise = 56 days