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Cairn India - Elara Securities - 24 April 2015
Cairn India - Elara Securities - 24 April 2015
Cairn India - Elara Securities - 24 April 2015
Cairn India
Rating: Reduce
Marred by one-offs
20
350
15
300
10
250
Aug-14
0
Apr-15
Dec-14
Vol. in mn (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg
Shareholding (%)
200
Apr-14
Promoter
59.9
59.9
59.9
59.9
Institutional Investors
26.6
26.7
26.0
24.6
Other Investors
11.1
10.9
11.2
12.7
General Public
2.4
2.6
2.9
2.8
Source: BSE
3M
6M
(5.3)
3.3
21.2
Cairn India
(14.0)
(26.1)
(39.4)
ONGC
(11.7)
(23.7)
(5.5)
(1.1)
(7.9)
(9.3)
Sensex
Reliance
12M
Source: Bloomberg
Q4FY15
Q4FY14
YoY (%)
Q3FY15
QoQ (%)
Q4FY15E
Variance
26,772
7,878
50,489
36,831
(47.0)
(78.6)
35,041
20,269
(23.6)
(61.1)
(59.8)
8,909
(3,536)
84
1,629
25,720
12,026
47
7,600
0
15
1,800
NA
6,211
621
5,590
2.9
4.1
(34.5)
(37.1)
(66.3)
29
73
2,560
1,683
51
3,576
5,052
2,107
4,516
(2,408)
(1.3)
6,367
2,431
109
4,070
31,995
1,641
30,354
15.9
58
(52.7)
(12.1)
NA
(93.4)
175.2
(107.9)
(107.9)
16,440
2,944
13,496
7.1
(71.3)
(39.1)
119.5
NA
(87.2)
53.4
(117.8)
(117.8)
242.7
98.7
NA
(66.1)
627.0
(143.1)
(143.1)
Key Financials
YE
Revenue
YoY
EBITDA
EBITDA
Adj PAT
March
(INR mn)
(%)
(INR mn) margin (%)
(INR mn)
FY14
187,617
7.1
136,857
5.0
124,318
FY15
146,462
(21.9)
85,226
(37.7)
71,126
FY16E
97,619
(33.3)
45,684
(46.4)
43,584
FY17E
112,110
14.8
65,525
43.4
57,757
Note: pricing as on 23 April 2015; Source: Company, Elara Securities Estimate
YoY
(%)
4.3
(42.8)
(38.7)
32.5
Fully DEPS
(INR)
65.1
37.2
22.8
30.2
RoE
(%)
4.3
(42.8)
(38.7)
32.5
RoCE
(%)
3.3
5.7
9.4
7.1
P/E EV/EBITDA
(x)
(x)
2.9
2.1
4.6
2.7
8.6
4.1
6.0
3.6
Cairn India
Equity Capital
Reserves
Total Borrowings
Deferred Taxes
Total Liabilities
Fixed Assets
Goodwill
Investments
Inventories
Debtors
Cash
Loans & Advances
Other Current Assets
Net Current Assets
Others
Total Assets
Cash Flow Statement (INR mn)
Operating cash flow
Capex
Free cash flow to firm
Investing cash flow
Financing cash flow
Net change in cash
Ratio Analysis
Income Statement Ratios (%)
Revenue Growth
EBITDA Growth
PAT Growth
EBITDAM
Net Margin
Return & Liquidity Ratios
Int/PBIT
Net debt/Equity (x)
ROE (%)
ROCE (%)
Per Share Data & Valuation Ratios
Diluted EPS (INR)
Adj EPS Growth (%)
Book Value (INR)
DPS (INR)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Price/Book (x)
Dividend Yield (%)
FY17E
112,110
65,525
17,158
0
48,367
0
15,613
63,980
6,223
9.7
57,757
0
57,757
200,000
75
70
150,000
55
46.8
50,000
45
FY14
FY15
Net revenues (LHS)
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
18,749
603,339
500
12,718
635,306
171,570
151,522
152,334
1,098
16,047
131,194
93,155
1,111
159,880
0
635,306
18,749
654,809
0
12,718
686,276
190,112
151,522
152,334
1,212
18,429
156,134
97,812
1,111
192,307
0
686,276
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
25
139,121
(40,951)
98,170
(100,767)
(26,935)
(13,765)
(13,366)
(27,131)
(2,062)
(30,471)
158,043
(42,300)
115,743
(42,300)
(9,698)
61,141
(35,700)
25,441
(35,700)
(500)
20
11,419
(46,298)
106,045
24,941
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
0.0
(0.0)
23.6
22.3
0.0
(0.0)
12.2
9.8
0.0
(0.2)
7.2
4.4
0.0
(0.2)
8.9
6.7
65.1
4.3
300.8
12.3
3.3
2.9
0.7
5.7
37.2
(42.8)
308.3
8.8
5.7
4.6
0.7
4.1
22.8
(38.7)
325.8
4.6
9.4
8.6
0.7
2.1
30.2
32.5
352.7
5.4
7.1
6.0
0.6
2.5
40
FY17E
EBITDAM (RHS)
140,000
120,000
100,000
40
20
4.3
80,000
60,000
(42.8)
40,000
(20)
(38.7)
(40)
20,000
0
(60)
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Return ratios
23.6
22.3
12.2
15
7.2
10
8.9
9.8
4.4
0
FY14
FY15
ROE
14.8
43.4
32.5
58.4
51.5
FY16E
18,749
569,954
0
12,718
601,420
143,876
151,522
152,334
3,439
11,250
8,517
178,498
2,275
137,056
16,632
601,420
(33.3)
(46.4)
(38.7)
46.8
44.6
50
FY14
(21.9)
(37.7)
(42.8)
58.2
48.6
60
100,000
19,076
555,301
0
7,356
581,733
156,205
151,522
163,638
2,971
25,124
17,619
84,494
1,508
56,540
53,827
581,733
7.1
5.0
4.3
72.9
66.3
65
58.4
58.2
(%)
FY16E
97,619
45,684
14,606
0
31,078
60
19,679
50,697
7,113
14.0
43,584
0
43,584
(INR mn)
FY15
146,462
85,226
25,695
(5,244)
64,775
203
12,849
77,421
6,295
12.3
71,126
(26,330)
44,796
(%)
FY14
187,617
136,857
22,974
(7,390)
121,274
415
7,637
128,496
4,178
3.3
124,318
0
124,318
(INR mn)
(%)
FY16E
6.7
FY17E
ROCE
Cairn India
Rajasthan production continues to slide
25
6,000
20
4,000
15
10
2,000
5
0
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
250,000
200,000
(boepd)
30
150,000
100,000
50,000
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
35,000
70
30,000
60
25,000
50
20,000
40
15,000
30
10,000
20
5,000
10
SOTP
3QFY15
1QFY15
3QFY14
1QFY14
3QFY13
1QFY13
3QFY12
1QFY12
3QFY11
1QFY11
(mmscfd)
(bopd)
35
8,000
(bopd)
10,000
(mmscfd)
Ravva
Cambay
37
153
60
213
Cairn India
Exhibit 5: Major Assumptions
Brent (USD/bbl)
Total Rajasthan production
(boepd)
Ravva-gross oil production
(bopd)
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
107.5
85.5
63.8
77.5
22,580
25,234
22,804
36
21
27
25
7,747
8,546
7,948
7,183
12
12
60.6
61.2
60.5
59.6
80
Q4FY15
Q4FY14
YoY (%)
Q3FY15
QoQ (%)
26,772
50,489
(47.0)
35,041
(23.6)
7,878
36,831
(78.6)
20,269
(61.1)
29
73
2,560
6,367
Forex loss/(gain)
1,683
2,431
51
109
(52.7)
84
(39.1)
Other income
3,576
4,070
(12.1)
1,629
119.5
Exceptional items
5,052
PBT
2,107
31,995
(93.4)
16,440
(87.2)
Tax
4,516
1,641
175.2
2,944
53.4
214.3
5.1
(2,408)
30,354
(107.9)
13,496
(117.8)
NA
NA
(2,408)
30,354
(107.9)
13,496
(117.8)
EBITDAM (%)
Interest cost
PAT
Impact of scheme of arrangement for earlier periods
Reported PAT
Diluted Adj EPS
Adj PAT
Gross production (boepd)
Oil price realization (US$/bbl)
Gas price realization (US$/mscf)
Rajasthan (boepd)
58
(59.8)
8,909
(71.3)
(3,536)
17.9
(1.3)
15.9
(107.9)
7.1
(117.8)
2,644
30,354
(91.3)
13,496
(80.4)
215,553
224,429
(4.0)
218,900
(1.5)
48.6
95.7
(49.2)
76.8
(36.7)
6.2
6.1
1.6
6.3
(1.6)
174,206
190,881
(8.7)
180,010
(3.2)
26,872
18,846
42.6
23,410
14.8
29
32
(9.4)
26
11.5
8,464
7,342
15.3
8,938
(5.3)
12
(41.7)
13
(46.2)
Ravva
-oil (bopd)
-gas (mmscfd)
Cambay
-oil (bopd)
-gas (mmscfd)
Source:
Elara Estimate
Securities Research
Source:Company,
Elara Securities
Cairn India
Coverage History
400
4
3
350
300
250
7
8
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
200
Not Covered
Date
Rating
Target Price
Closing Price
08-Jan-2014 Buy
INR 420
INR 328
03-Mar-2014 Buy
INR 418
INR 327
23-Apr-2014 Accumulate
INR 411
INR 352
23-Jul-2014
INR 360
INR 346
21-Oct-2014 Accumulate
INR 297
INR 278
16-Dec-2014 Accumulate
INR 267
INR 236
22-Jan-2015 Accumulate
INR 256
INR 239
23-Apr-2015 Reduce
INR 213
INR 214
Reduce
Covered
ACCUMULATE
REDUCE
SELL
Elara Capital Inc.s affiliate does not expect to receive compensation from Cairn India Limited in the next 3 months.
Elara Capital Inc.s affiliate did not receive compensation from Cairn India Limited in the last 12 months.
Europe
USA
Asia / Pacific
Harendra Kumar
Managing Director
harendra.kumar@elaracapital.com
Vishal Purohit
vishal.purohit@elaracapital.com
Amit Mamgain
India
amit.mamgain@elaracapital.com
Deepak Sawhney
India
deepak.sawhney@elaracapital.com
Kalpesh Parekh
India
kalpesh.parekh@elaracapital.com
Nishit Master
India
nishit.master@elaracapital.com
Prashin Lalvani
India
prashin.lalvani@elaracapital.com
Sushil Bhojwani
India
sushil.bhojwani@elaracapital.com
Varun Joshi
North America
varun.joshi@elaracapital.com
Manan Joshi
India
manan.joshi@elaracapital.com
Manoj Murarka
India
manoj.murarka@elaracapital.com
Vishal Thakkar
India
vishal.thakker@elaracapital.com
Sales
Research
Aarthisundari Jayakumar Analyst
Pharmaceuticals
aarthi.jayakumar@elaracapital.com
Aashish Upganlawar
Analyst
FMCG, Media
aashish.upganlawar@elaracapital.com
Abhishek Karande
Analyst
abhishek.karande@elaracapital.com
adhidev.chattopadhyay@elaracapital.com
Aliasgar Shakir
Analyst
aliasgar.shakir@elaracapital.com
Ashish Kejriwal
Analyst
ashish.kejriwal@elaracapital.com
Ashish Kumar
Economist
ashish.kumar@elaracapital.com
Deepak Agrawala
Analyst
deepak.agrawala@elaracapital.com
Analyst
jay.kale@elaracapital.com
Rakesh Kumar
Analyst
rakesh.kumar@elaracapital.com
Ravi Menon
Analyst
IT Services
ravi.menon@elaracapital.com
Ravi Sodah
Analyst
Cement
ravi.sodah@elaracapital.com
Sumant Kumar
Analyst
sumant.kumar@elaracapital.com
Swarnendu Bhushan
Analyst
swarnendu.bhushan@elaracapital.com
Bhawana Chhabra
Sr. Associate
Strategy
bhawana.chhabra@elaracapital.com
Manuj Oberoi
Sr. Associate
manuj.oberoi@elaracapital.com
Durgesh Poyekar
Associate
durgesh.poyekar@elaracapital.com
Harshit Kapadia
Associate
harshit.kapadia@elaracapital.com
Parin Vora
Associate
parin.vora@elaracapital.com
Saiprasad Prabhu
Associate
FMCG, Media
saiprasad.prabhu@elaracapital.com
Priyanka Sheth
Editor
priyanka.sheth@elaracapital.com
Gurunath Parab
Production
gurunath.parab@elaracapital.com
Jinesh Bhansali
Production
jinesh.bhansali@elaracapital.com