Trends in food, markets and farms:

findings from USDAs

Economic Research Service
Lunch~N~Learn
National Coalition for Food and Agricultural Research
March 23, 2015
Mary Bohman, Ph.D.
Administrator

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Trends in food, markets and farms:

findings from USDAs
Economic Research Service

Trends in the American diet

Food industry responds to consumer demand

for health, convenience, and other traits

Americas away-from-home spending

continues to increase

contributing to a larger Food Services share

and smaller Farm Share of the Food Dollar

10

Calories from grains, added fats and

oils, and sweeteners have increased
Calorie by food group, 1970 and 2010
Fruit and vegetables
Dairy
206

2010

274
Caloric
sweeteners

247

193

610

Grains

430

367
333

1970
346
529

545
Meat, eggs, and
nuts

590
Added fats and oils
and dairy fats

Note: Food Availability data serve as proxies for food consumption.

Added fats and oils and added sugars are added to foods during processing or preparation. They do not include naturally-occurring fats and sugars in food (e.g., fats
in meat or sugars in fruits).
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Loss-Adjusted Food Availability Data.

so that eating trends are not consistent

with recommendations

Consumers try to improve diet quality

have shifted to healthier milk options,
while consuming more cheese and less fluid milk
U.S. per capita consumption of fluid milk and cheese, 1970-2010

but time and other constraints can make

healthy food choices challenging at times
1440

68
34

57
20

259

273

74

111

Eating and drinking

115

Meal preparation and cleanup

132

Other activities**

1280

Minutes

1120
960

117

800

162

Travel
640

213

241

Socializing & leisure

Television

480

Work
Sleep

320
514

491

**Other activities include grooming,

housework, caring activities,
sports/exercise, and shopping.

160
0

All U.S. adults

Fast-food purchasers

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service calculations using

2003-11 American Time Use Survey data.
14

Regulations prompted industry to

reformulate toward low-transfat products

US agriculture operates in
dynamic global markets

Growing importance of global markets

for U.S. agriculture

USDA Baseline forecasts growth in global trade

of soybean, coarse grains and wheat

Higher incomes have increased demand

for food in developing countries
Sales to
developing
countries now
account for twothirds of U.S.
agricultural
exports

The top 3 U.S. ag marketsChina, Canada,

and Mexicoaccount for about
45 percent of U.S. exports
U.S. agricultural exports

180

$ billion

160

Mexico

140

Canada

120

China

100

Rest of World

80
60
40
20
0

October/September U.S. fiscal years

Chinese imports are growing

New ERS
data viz
allows
users to
interact
with data
and charts

U.S. exports to China are growing

US farms: increasing farm size and

evolving market opportunities

Most U.S. farms are small, but large farms

account for most production
Percent of U.S. farms,
production, or assets,
2012
40

Farms

Value of production

37.6

Farm assets

35
30

27.9

27.8

25
20.8

20

20.2

19.4
18.1

15.4

15.2

14.0

15
10.8
9.5

10

13.7

9.7
7.5

6.9
5.4

4.6

5.4
3.6

2.6
0.8

2.8

0.2

0
Retirement

Off-farm
occupation

Low-sales

Moderatesales

Farming-occupation

Small family farms

Midsize

Large

Very large

Nonfamily

Large-scale
family farms

Note: Small family farms have gross cash farm income (GCFI) < $350,000. Midsize family farms have GCFI of $350,000-$999,999.
Large-scale family farms have GCFI of $1,000,000 or more.
Source: 2014 Family Farm Report (in review), using data from 2012 USDA Agricultural Resource Management Survey.

Commodity orientation differs

by size and type of farm
Percent of commodity production
100

7.2

Type of farm:
7.7

10.6
18.1

90

5.9

20.8

8.5
22.1

15.4

80
70

37.1

17.5
21.0

34.7
35.0

29.9
16.9

59.4

16.7

40

20

17.9

56.4

28.8

40.4

35.9

24.8

Midsize family farms

51.1

47.7

17.0
31.5

10

Large-scale family farms

48.3

50

30

Nonfamily farms

35.5

21.4

60

14.7

26.3

12.7

23.2
25.5

23.5
12.6

11.4

Small family farms

8.9

Commodity

1Sheep,

lambs, wool, goats, goats milk, mohair, horses, ponies, mules, donkeys, bees, honey, aquaculture, mink, rabbits, other fur bearing
animals, bison, deer, elk, llamas, etc.
2High value crops are vegetables, fruits and tree nuts, and nursery and greenhouse.
Source: 2014 Family Farm Report, in review, relying on 2012 USDA Agricultural Resource Management Survey, Phase III.

Farms size continues to increase

Midpoint
(weighted
median)
acreage
provides a
good measure
with a skewed
distribution

Not just field crops

37 fruit, vegetable, nut, & berry crops
Covering over 90% of acreage
Midpoints increased for 36 of 37 over 1987-2012
Mean increase was 146%, median was 116%
29 with increases in 2007-12; mean was 18%

From 1987 to 2012, the mid-point dairy

herd increased from 80 to 900 cows

U.S. farm consolidation is

Long-term, ongoing and widespread
Drivers
Technology: better faster equipment,
pest management practices
Organizational innovations: specialization
of production into stages (hogs), via
contracts, via hiring custom services

What else has not happened?

But, not really very corporatestill
dominated by family businesses
Few corporatized farming businesses
Crop farms are getting larger, but none have
more than 50,000 hectares of cropland
Livestock is more mixed
Integrators control vertical chains in hogs, poultry
But contract with growers

Some cattle feeders own multiple large feedlots

Some individuals own multiple large dairy farms

A diverse U.S. agricultural sector:

Local food systems and small farms
Local and regional food systems are gaining
interest among consumers
Direct-to-consumer sales increased by 32
percent between 2002 and 2007, but have
been flat since. Intermediated sales may have
grown.
Small farms handle 33 percent of local sales
(compared to 25 percent of all farm sales).

Direct to consumer sales take place across U.S.,

but most occur in Northeast and West Coast

Direct to Consumer (DTC) farms:

More likely to survive, less likely to grow

Summary:
Trends in food, markets & farms
Food and farming continue to change in
response to
Consumers balancing time and desire to eat better
Food industry providing convenience and meeting
consumer demand for taste and health
Global market opportunities expand with income
growth in developing countries
New technology and innovations in organization
Evolving market opportunities including local foods

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