7/7/2015

PolicyNetworkOfdoorsandvoters

FranceVotersEngagement

Ofdoorsandvoters

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GuillaumeLiegey,ArthurMuller&VincentPons27March2013
Thepoliticalpartyofthemustembracethewealthofknowledgecreatedbymodern
scienceinadaptingoldmethodstonewcircumstances
Aworldrecordwasbrokenin2012:thenumberofdoorsknockedonbypoliticalvolunteers(in
Francealone,5milliondoorswereknocked,by80,000volunteers).IntheUnitedStates,the
NetherlandsandFrance,votermobilizationthroughdoortodoorcanvassingwasatthecoreof
campaignteamswinningstrategies.Intwoofthesecountries(Netherlands,France),thiswas
unprecedented.Thesesuccessesarelikelytoreinforcethemomentumaroundvoter
mobilization.AcrossEurope,manyprogressivepoliticalpartiesareaddingdoortodoor
canvassingtotheirtraditionalarsenalforfuturecampaigns.Webelievethisnewparadigmwill
havelastingeffectsonhowcampaignsarerunandmorebroadlyonthefunctioningofpolitical
partiesandmoderndemocracies.
Overthepastfifteenyears,campaigninghasincreasinglybeenshapedbyscience.Political
researchersandpractitionershaveleddozensoffieldexperiments,improvingtheknowledge
availableinpoliticalscienceaboutthedeterminantsofpoliticalbehaviourandhowtobestwin
votes.DuringthelatestObamacampaign,RCTs(randomisedcontroltrials)hadbecomea
standardcampaigntooltheywereusedtocomparetherelativeeffectivenessofdifferent
interventionsseekingtoincreasevoterspropensitytovoteortheirlikelihoodtojointhe
campaignasvolunteers.Beyondthetacticallessonsofalltheseexperiments,thereisonekey
insightforthosewhowishtomodernisethewaypoliticsisdone:nothingbeatsfacetoface
contactwithvoters.ObamaforAmerica2012usedthemostsophisticatedstatisticalmodels
foraverypracticalpurpose:identifyingspecificvoterswhoshouldbetargetedbycampaign
volunteers.
ThefirstevidenceofthepowerofdirectinteractioncamefromtheseminalworkofAlanGerber
andDonaldGreen.TheirRCTinNewHavenin1998openedthewayforthecomebackof
doortodoorcanvassinginUScampaigns.Buildingupontheirresearch,weorganisedin2010
arandomisedexperimentwiththePartisocialisteinFrancethefirststudythatrigorously
measuredtheimpactofdoortodoorcanvassingonturnoutinthiscountry.Whilethisdoorto
doorpartisancanvassingdidnotaffecttheparticipationamongcitizensofthemainstream
population,itstronglyincreasedtheparticipationofforeignborncitizensandtheir
descendants.Thisexperimentenabledustoisolateaspecificchannelthroughwhich
canvassingcanaffectturnout:byincreasingthesenseofbelongingtothenationalcommunity
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amongtheleastintegratedcitizens.
AllvolunteerswhoparticipatedinthedoorknockingprojectweremembersoftheParti
socialiste.Theygreatlyenjoyedtheexperienceofengagingdirectlywithvotersand
encouragingthemtovote.Formostofthem,itwasthefirsttimetheyeverknockedondoors.
Still,somehadbeenpartymembersforoveradecade.Doortodoor,anactivitydirectedat
nonvoters,wasatraditioninthe1970sbutslowlydisappearedfromcampaignstrategies,for
tworeasons:
First,politicalpartiesinFrancetendedtofocustheireffortsonpersuadingactivevotersrather
thanreachingouttononvoters.
Second,mostpartyactivitieswereselfcenteredandmemberstimewasspentinfratricide
debatesratherthanfieldworkinlocalcommunities.Partymemberswouldhencehavelittle
interactionsoutsideofthepartysphere.Thingschangedin2012:FranoisHollandesvoter
mobilizationcampaigngathered80,000volunteerswhoknockedat5milliondoorsinfour
monthsthelargestfieldcampaigneverorganisedinEurope.
Whatcanpoliticalpartiesinothercountrieslearnfromthis?
Thepoliticalpartyofthefuturewillembracethewealthofknowledgemadeavailableby
politicalscienceanddesignitsstrategiesbasedonrigorousscientificevidence.Also,itwill
devoteresourcestobuildaperennialmobilizationinfrastructure,notablytoengagewith
citizenswhoseepoliticsasaremoteandforeignworld.
Veryfewpartieshaveyetmadearuleofsystematicallyusingresearchresultstocraft
campaignstrategies.Yetpoliticalscienceandappliedpsychologycannowteachcampaigners
whichmessagesbestgetvotersouttovote,whichcanvassersshouldbematchedwiththe
voterstheycanvass,andinwhichway,orwhattherighttimingofthesevisitsis.
DuringthelatestObamacampaign,the50highlytrainedexpertsthatwerepartoftheanalytics
teamandwereresponsibleforcrunchingimmensedatasetsandmicrotargetingthecitizensto
bedirectlycontactedbycampaignvolunteersdidnotstartfromscratch:theDemocraticParty
hadalreadymadeahabitofusingexperimentalteststobuildpredictingmodelsandithad
collectedvastdatasetsaboutcitizensregistrationstatus,pastvotinghistoryaswellashuge
commercialdatabases.
Suchananalyticsteamcouldbeabuildingblockofalargerpermanentmobilization
infrastructure,activebothduringandoutsideofcampaignperiods.Makingmobilizationa
priority,thepoliticalpartyofthefuturewillengagewithvotersactiveandinactivein
betweenelections.Thiswouldstrengthentherelationshipbetweenpartiesandvoters,since
thelatterwouldnotbesolelycontactedontheeveofElectionDaybutengagedinalonger
termdialogue.Thelatterisagreatmeanstocollectfirsthandinformationaboutthestateof
publicopinionandreceivefeedbackongovernmentpolicyandongoingpublicdebates.Inlate
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2010,Partisocialistesvolunteerswehadworkedwithduringourexperimentdecidedtoknock
onvotersdoorstodiscussNicolasSarkozyspensionsystemreformandexposetheir
counterarguments.Theyreceivedawarmwelcomefromvoters,whohadnotexpectedto
receivethevisitofpoliticalvolunteersoneyearbeforethenextcampaigncycle.
Offcampaignperiodscanalsobeusedtorunexperimentsandaddresskeyquestionssuch
as:Whatdrivescitizenstovolunteerandengageinpolitics?Whatarethemosteffective
messagestohighlightthefailuresofgovernmentpolicywhenyourpartyisinopposition?
Whichvotersegmentsaremorelikelytosupportyou?Allthesequestionscanbetested
outsideofcampaignperiods.
Astheybuildupexpertiseinmobilizationstrategies,partiescanstartsharingtheirknowledge
withlocalcivicorganizationsandbecomeincubatorsforcommunityorganizingprojects,
especiallyinlowincomeneighbourhoods.Theyhavetheresourcesandexpertisetoorganise
training:duringthelastpresidentialcampaignsinFrance,morethan150sessionstookplace
totrain6,000fieldorganisers.Theinfrastructurebuiltduringthecampaignshouldbemade
morepermanentandevenaccessibletononpartymembers.TheAmericanembassyin
Franceorganisedcommunityorganizingtrainingsessionsforyoungleadersfromthe
banlieuesFrancesdisadvantagedneighbourhoods.LeMondejournalistLucBronner
explainedthatThankstothisoperation,theAmericanembassyhasbuiltthebestnetworkin
thebanlieues.Whywouldntpoliticalpartiesdothesameandopentrainingprogramstolocal
communityleaders?
Webelievesuchchangesareverylikelytohappen.Thequestionisrather:inyourcountry,
whichpartywillbethefirsttousethistypeofrigorousexperimentaltestingtotarget
abstentionnistsandfindeffectivewaystomobiliseengagewiththem?
Partiesandcandidateshaveadirectinterestinbuildingalonglastingrelationshipwithvoters,
especiallyinareaswherepoliticalengagementisweak.Doingsotheywillincreasethesizeof
theirelectorateandexpandtheirbaseofvolunteers,whichwillfurtherimprovetheirabilityto
mobilisevoters.Thisalignmentofprivateinterest(gainingvotes)andpublicinterest(improving
votermobilizationandpoliticalengagement)hereisquiteunique,makingitpossibletoinvent
newapproachestorevitalisethewaydemocracyworks.
Politicalcompetitionislikelytohelpspreadtheinnovationswedescribed.InFrance,following
theintroductionofopenprimariesbythePartisocialisteforthe2012presidentialelection,
politiciansfromUMPtherivalconservativepartycalledforasimilarmovefor2017.The
sameholdstruefordoortodoorcanvassing:inspiredbyFranoisHollandescampaign,
severalUMPcandidatesfortheparliamentaryelectionsstartedknockingondoors.
Thereisofcourseaconstanttensionbetweeninnovationandinertiainpoliticalpartiesbutthe
fieldofcampaigning,intheUSandbeyond,hasrecentlyshownararepredispositionto
overcomeresistancetochange.
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GuillaumeLiegey,ArthurMullerandVincentPonsmanagedFranoisHollande'svoter
mobilizationcampaignfortheFrenchpresidentialelection.TheyfoundedLiegeyMuller
Pons,apoliticalstrategyfirm,tohelpprogressivepoliticalpartiesinFrance,Europe
andbeyondtoorganiselargescalefieldcampaign.Togethertheyaretheauthorsofthe
forthcomingbook,Porteporte:Reconquerirlademocratiesurleterrain.
ThisisacontributiontothejointPolicyNetwork/CenterforAmericanProgressGlobal
ProgressessayseriesonThePartyoftheFuture:Coalitionbuildingandanewstyleofpolitics.
ThisisacontributiontoPolicyNetwork'sworkonPartyPolitics,GovernmentandElections.
Tags:PartyoftheFuture,OfDoorsandVoters,France,GuillaumeLiegey,ArthurMuller,
VincentPons,Campaign,Election,US,UnitedStates,Netherlands,Obama,Barack
Obama,Democrats,DemocraticParty,AlanGerber,DonaldGreen,Partisocialiste,
SocialistParty,PS,UMP,UnionforaPopularMovement,UnionpourunMouvement,
FrancoisHollande,LucBronner,

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