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112 Technical Analysis Review 310715
112 Technical Analysis Review 310715
Technical
Analysis
Review
Review_31/07/15 - ( Rating - 7/15 ) Positive - High Risk - Rupee is Depreciating / Nifty on verge of Breaking out into Bull Market / AD is +ve / TRIN is -ve / Net 52 WK Hi/Low is
+ve / Bonds is -Ve (--) Big Picture is Positive.
| 0 is extreme -ve | 1 is -ve | 2 is Neutral | 3 is +ve | 4 is extreme +ve |
It is notable Breakout of the entire activity of previous 4 Months is contained into the
range of August Huge Candle & it is unable to takeout the lows of that August
candle.On Daily TF the price has broken on Upside. It is Notable that $ Index has Given
a Breakout from Weekly Demand Zone & $ is expected to Raise against all Currencies
(Trouble for Rupee) Also With Growing Crises senerio Green Buck (has been
considered to be the Hedge (Preferred Vehicle For Cash).
Monthly Chart's Engulfing bar action could mean deep correction. The Demand Zone
on Monthly is near 7721 - 7422 & Below it 6730 - 6650
Demand Levels are (8513 - 8451) + (8257 - 8236) + (8118 - 8084) + FZ 7890 + (7906 7857) + SHFZ (7840 - 7817) + (7731 - 7695) + (7676 - 7654) + (7625 - 7598) + (7564 7532) + (7420 - 7360) + (7130 - 7080) + RN 7000 + (6860 - 6820) + (6690 6640) + 6354
(6228.45) 6187.80 + 6133 (6100) 6102 + 5807 (5791) 5780 + 5755.28 to 5714.63 +
5550.13 (5506.50) 5474.97 + 5276.86 - 5211.20 + 5128.09 (5079.67) 5032.70 +
4842.27 4770.73
Dimensions
Price Major Trend line break from Historic Pivot Highs of 6154 - 6134 is broken on
the Up side & retesting the Trendline break from above,Measured up move of Break
of Ascending Triangle is Very high at 10043.
Volume Volumes are in increasing Trend.In Aug series Nifty future added 39.87
lakh position in Open Interest and this accounts to 24.01 % of Total Open Interest in
Aug series.The Nifty Aug series is trading at 39.95 Rs premium to Underlying . In
derivative cumulatively for all series contract Nifty future net added 14.29 lakh
position in open interest and this accounts to 5.5 % of Total Open Interest in all series
and cumulatively trading in average premium of 40.1 Rs to Underlying.
Open Intrest (OI) Record updated for-.Aug/01/2015-NIFTY FUTURECMP(8461.75) is currently in SLIGHTLY BEAR trend.The open interest is also increasing
with trend and discount of share is also increasing indicating down move.
In options activity mainly confined to lower puts even though put/call ratio is high At
current price strike the activity is tilted to put side and ratio is still strong but addition
of call is slightly increasing at 8400 level Yesterday Nifty Put option has added 847.52
lakh position and Nifty call option has added 846.7 lakh position in open interest on
cumulative basis Moneyflow wise Nifty Put option has added Rs 232.09 crore in value
and Nifty call option has added Rs 432.53 crore in value on cumulative basis.
NIFTY PCR (Position Wise) - 1.00 & (Money Wise) - 0.35
Sentiments Sentiments are now Caustious as current Breakout into Life time High
has retraced, Due to Sharp retracement in Upmove Traders are forced to cut their
Long Position,A Break on Upside from Weekly Inverse H&S & Monthly Ascending
Triangle Indicates Supreme Power for Bulls.Risk Reward would be favourable on Bear
Side upto Retest. Earnings expectations are mostly -ve
TIme After Previous F&O expiry (@ 8398.00 ) Nifty could now build Long Position
due to Sharp Pullback ..
Nifty's 56 Day Cycle (2806-2015 was a Gapdown Bullish Bar Up Day) (Next Date 23-08-2015 Expect Uptrend )->
Mid month Reversal ( 15-072015 was a Normal Range Bull Day )(Next Date 14-08-2015) Quaterlies Settlement is
on 3rd Friday (19-06-2015 was Normal Range Bull bar Day) (Next Date 19-09-2015)
P & F Chart Double Top Breakdown Pattern occurred on 26-06-2015. 1) Rare
Double top & H&S Neckline Breakout @ 8000
Breadth Charts - ( 0/3 ) (Rating 1 for Each +ve)
Advance Decline Line (0/1) If the Nifty is rising but the number of stocks
advancing is dropping, then the trend is in trouble and may pause soon or even
reverse.
AD Line is Now falling with increase in Nifty, indicates decreased strength in Up trend
& But Line is still Low on the Curve hence it is Positive for Uptrend.
Midcaps are Raising with declining Momentum ( After Recovery from Over Sold Levels
) But some Large caps & All Index Heavy Weights are Declining with Little Momentum.
NSE Net Monthly High & Low (0/1) More Stocks in the index making new highs
versus new lows if Number is Reducing Trend is in Trouble.The Rising New Highs
indicate Markets Buying pressure is accelerating (Environment & Trend) is Positive
There is a downward slope as "Valleys of 52 week Highs" has been broken on upside
for a 2nd Time indicating weekness in Up Trend.The "Peaks of stocks Hitting 52
Week High" Should increase for strong Up Trend
India Vix Volatility Index (or Fear Index or VIX) is a weighted measure of the implied
volatility.Market Makers hedge the market Play, the Down Volume is always a factor
& used in Direct Corelation with the VIX & They Together have Indirect corelation with
Index ie Vix & DVol is Down; Market will move Up AND Vix & DVol is Up;Market will
move Down.Indirect relation between Vix & DVOL leads to Sidewise Index
VIX is below 20 indicating Complacancy. Fear/ Volitality has increased with Up Trend
indicating Possible pullback...Volume is also High....
Indian Bonds (0/4) Indirect Correlation with Stock Market; Money Flows from Bonds to Stock for Short term Maturity (Mkt Goes up) & Vice Versa. Shorter Period
= Lower Rate (Controlled by Centeral Bank & Indirect relation to Stock Market) + Longer Period = Higher Rate (Controlled by Market)
All Bonds Compleing Pullback in Uptrend. InCorrect Relation of 30Y ROI > 10Y ROI < 3Y ROI is achived (Caution Money is Moving to Short term Bond Market from
Share Market indicates Weekness in Economy & Flight to safety ) .. . Under Asset Rotation from Risk on (Equity Market) to Risk off (Bond Market - Security Backed
by Govt) & with Devalution of Rupee the Dollar Outage is gaining strength ( Increase of Returns in 100% Govt secured Bonds).Also Yield Returns in India are more than
corrosponding Bonds in Developed Markets.
10 Y
30 Y
3Y
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NB: These notes are just personal musings on the markets, trends etc, as a sort of reminder to me on what I thought of them at a particular point in time. They are not predictions and none should rely on them for any
investment decisions. Readers Discretion Expected. Advocate to Consult Your Financial Advisor before any Investment as Investment in any market may be Lost in its Entirety. Strictly for Entertainment Purpose Only.