Volume 6, Issue 3

August 14 , 2015

DUFFY TRIAL, POLICY ANNOUNCEMENTS

DOMINATE WEEK TWO
For more information about any of the issues discussed below please contact Adam Daifallah, at (514) 316-7089
or at adaifallah@hatleystrategies.com.

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Nigel Wright testimony at Duffy trial puts Harper on hot spot
Conservatives announce national security and home purchase measures
Leaders agree to at least 4 more debates
NDPs Mulcair hones in on Quebec
Liberals up in the polls following last weeks debate

ANALYSIS
The second week of the 2015 federal election campaign has been fairly tame as every party but the Conservatives
look to limit spending until the summer ends.
Four notable incidents have hit the leaders this week, causing headaches in the party war rooms:

Nigel Wright, Prime Minister Harpers former chief of staff, began giving his long-awaited testimony at
Senator Mike Duffys criminal trial in Ottawa. Journalists have been madly plowing through 400 pages of
internal PMO emails sent between Wright and other staffers on the Senate expenses issue, trying to find
inconsistencies between Harper and Wrights version of the events.
It was revealed early this week that the Conservatives had banned public communications at Conservative
Party rallies. This would have prevented anyone from taking photos or tweeting about what was going on.

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August 14 , 2015

The Tories backtracked after the plan was criticized, but the incident did not help the image of the
Conservative Party as closed off and controlling.
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau said on Wednesday that his party would not grow the economy from the top
down like the Conservatives, but from the heart outwards. While the party has been spinning this to
mean the core of the middle class, most analysts agree that it was a spontaneous attempt to show that he
was more compassionate than the other leaders. The Tories and their partisans have made quick political
hay out of the incident.
The NDP was in hot water on Thursday as it was revealed they paid Punjabi phone canvassers $13 an hour,
while Anglophone workers were paid $17 for the same work. As soon as this news emerged, the company
hired by the NDP announced they would correct this error and issue the pay difference to all minorities
who were underpaid. The NDP is a strong and vocal advocate for equality, recently announcing that they
support a $15 minimum wage.

About 4.3 million Canadians were said to have tuned in to last weeks debate hosted by Macleans magazine, an
impressive figure given that the election is still over two months away and its the middle of summer. The debate
seemed to have had a positive effect on Justin Trudeau, who climbed three points in a recent Ipsos poll. The new
poll shows a dead heat between the three major parties: the NDP leads with 33%, the Conservatives are close
behind with 31%, and the Liberals come in at 28%.
Many are hoping the next debates will be as substantive, and that the French-language debates will spark more
discussion in Quebec. This week, the NDP confirmed Thomas Mulcairs presence in two more debates. The official
lineup is as follows:

September 17, 2015: English language debate hosted by the Globe and Mail (on the economy)
Stephen Harper (Conservative), Thomas Mulcair (NDP), and Justin Trudeau (Liberal) will be present

September 24, 2015: French language debate hosted by Radio-Canada (general debate)
Stephen Harper (Conservative), Thomas Mulcair (NDP), Justin Trudeau (Liberal), Gilles Duceppe (Bloc
Qubcois), and Elizabeth May (Green) will be present

September 28, 2015: Bilingual debate hosted by the Aurea Foundation (on foreign affairs)
Stephen Harper (Conservative), Thomas Mulcair (NDP), and Justin Trudeau (Liberal) will be present

October 2, 2015: French language debate hosted by TVA (general debate)

Stephen Harper (Conservative), Thomas Mulcair (NDP), and Justin Trudeau (Liberal) will be present

Several other debates are in the pipeline, but none are yet confirmed to take place.

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August 14 , 2015

THE QUEBEC ANGLE

The battle for Quebec continues apace. Thomas Mulcair campaigned in the Quebec City area this week, pitching
that the Conservatives have not done enough to protect small businesses in Canada and that the NDP would act
differently in put in power. The NDP is under attack around Quebec City by the Conservatives who hope to make
gains in the region. The NDP is hoping to use the sluggish economy against the Tories.
Stephen Harper announced new measures this week to improve security in Canada. Tough stances on national
security and terrorism tend to play favourably in Quebec. Among the announcements, the Conservatives promised
to install a ban on travelling to areas of the world considered hotspots for terrorism. The ban would not cover
journalists or Canadians going to fight terrorists, raising the question of whether or not the announcement was
nothing but smoke and mirrors. Canadians suspected of traveling overseas with terrorist intensions have been
prevented from doing so in the past without this law. Also announced was an increase in the amount Canadians can
withdraw from an RRSP for a first home purchase to $35,000, up from the current $25,000.
On the more local level, several ridings are producing interesting nomination battles. In the much-watched race in
Ahuntsic-Cartierville, Liberals will get to pick their candidate on August 23rd. The establishment favourite is former
Montreal mayoral candidate Mlanie Joly, though it is far from clear that she will win against the three other
candidates. Whoever wins, they will be up against MP Maria Mourani, who defected from the Bloc to the NDP.
Another interesting race heating up on the Island of Montreal, this time in the new riding of Notre-Dame-deGrceWestmount. The NDP nomination vote will take place on August 16th between six candidates. Three star
candidates are vying for the title: former Montreal Gazette journalist Sue Montgomery, city councillor Peter
McQueen, and the former head of the Old Brewery Mission, James Hughes. The winner will face Liberal MP Marc
Garneau, who narrowly won the last election by a little over 600 votes. The new ridings boundaries have shifted
into the western borough of NDG, which typically leans further left. This will likely favour the NDP and make it
harder for Garneau to retain his seat.

For any additional questions please contact: Adam Daifallah, Partner

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