If MRs defeat is certain, why not vote JVP!

Choosing between urgent immediacy and longterm perspectives

August 15, 2015, 6:53 pm
Be patient
Comrade; two stages cant merge into
one!
An uneasy relationship; but it has to be
managed.
by Kumar David
If it is certain that Mahinda Rajapaksa
(MR) will not be the next Prime Minister,
it makes sense to use ones vote to craft
a meaningful opposition instead of
increasing the Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW) UNF-GG parliamentary majority.
A strong JVP serves two objectives: (a) an opposition that can keep the
next government on a tight leash (the debauched UPFA opposition can
serve no such purpose); (b) test out a dish that may mature into an
alternative government one day. Yes, I can hear voices in protest: "Kumar,
you are crazy, you are playing with fire! How can one be sure till the votes
are counted that the UPFA has been defeated? How can we take a chance?
We must pool every vote to defeat MR; we can think of the JVP afterwards,
that is after the immediate peril has receded".
I grant the dilemma but have a simple and I think plausible solution. Vote
JVP in every district where it has a good chance of securing a seat; in
other places vote for the UNF-GG. (The North and East are a different
story). This can be called tactical voting adjusted for the PR system. A
corollary is that one must vote JVP in Colombo District and push two into
parliament Anura Kumara and Lal Kantha. There are six other districts
where the JVP will secure one or two seats Vijitha Herath and Bimal
Ratnayake (Gampaha), Nihal Galapathi in Hambantota, Sunil
Handunneththi (Matara), Samantha Vidyaratne (Monaragala) and possibly

Vasantha Samarasinghe (Anuradhapura). I must also make special

mention of my politically principled and thoroughly decent friend Dr
Nalinda Jayatissa in Kalutara.
Getting say 12 to 15 JVPers (including Appointed MPs) into parliament is
not a waste of anti-MR votes; but on the contrary it will help bury the rentseeking Rajapaksa family and its crony mafia. However, there is one
possible source of confusion in the minds of tactical voters which the JVP
must dispel by announcing that it will never allow MR to become PM and
that the alternative is "less worse!"
Let me explain. I refuse to make predictions but qualitatively there is
rather a fine balance. On 8 January Sirisena (MS) polled 62 lakhs which
included the UNP mass base vote which RW cleverly managed to keep in
line for the Swan; MR polled 58 lakhs. The minorities to a man and JVP
voters backed Sirisena. That is the problem! In this election about four
lakhs of Jaffna and Vanni Tamils will vote for their own parties (the Muslims
are within the UNF-GG umbrella) and say three lakhs of JVP voters will also
go their own way. If other things remain the same the UNF-GG vote falls to
55 lakhs.
Of course other things have not remained unchanged. MR cannot use state
machinery (vehicles, police and government servants) and money,
corruption has been exposed and most serious, the SLFP is in a spin. A few
lakhs of UPFA voters will keep away and a few lakhs switch allegiance. MR
himself now personally engages in explicit communal racial rabble rousing
at the hustings; however, I am unable to judge its effectiveness. All this
number counting, of course, is speculative and may be off the mark; the
point is that it is wise to appreciate that the outcome may be finely
balanced.
What is easier to predict is that RW is likely to be the next PM. I am
confident that the MR-camp will not secure an absolute majority (113
seats). In that is case President Sirisena has the discretion to ask RW to
form a government on the "He is the person most likely to secure support
in parliament" principle. This is a decision within his prerogative if the UPFA
fails to get a majority. RW will then go ahead and the TNA will give the
President a wink. The JVP can do itself a favour and win over marginal
voters worried about "wasting" their vote by reassuring the anti-MR public
that it (the JVP) will "reluctantly" facilitate the choice of RW over MR since
the latter is the "more worse" alternative.

[In parenthesis let me deal with a tangential matter. If the UPFA secures
more seats than the UNF-GG alone, say 90-plus UPFA to 90-minus UNFGG, and if RW forms a government its legitimacy will be contested. "We
won the election, they formed the government! What mockery! Its a Tamil
plot!" The anger may extend to burn, loot and mayhem. Therefore a RW
government, based on plurality, needs to win at least one seat more than
the UPFA (say 90-plus UNF-GG to 90-minus UPFA 80) for moral legitimacy.
For that the UNF-GG needs to make gains in Kegalle, Kalutara and
Anuradhapura Districts where Sirisena polled 4.8%, 6.2% and 8.2%,
respectively, less than MR in January 2015. In general the UNF-GG must
secure a +5% swing in Sinhalese areas].
The JVP grows up
I now return to the theme of this essay, the JVP option. Allow me to say
good things before I balance it out with critical remarks. Anura Kumara has
matured into an able leader; he comes thoroughly prepared, his points are
well argued and correctly presented and his delivery is sober. With the old
left leaders (NM, Colvin, Pieter and Bernard) no longer heard in the
Chamber, AKD and his colleagues are beginning to fill the void. The
existing slew of UPFA politicos are the dregs; it is unimaginable that NM,
Dr Wicks and their contemporaries, or Anura Kumara and his comrades
would debase themselves and call an opponent a pakaya in parliament.
JVP parliamentarians are a cut above UPFA garbage and in most cases
higher quality than the UNPs ranks there are of course some 10 or 20
quality people in the UNP parliamentary group as well.
Let us not judge the world by Westminster behavioural standards alone;
what of the JVP as a national political entity. It is the most serious minded
and far thinking of all parties currently represented in parliament. I have
three reasons for arriving at this judgement. First the JVP seems to have
undertaken an evaluation of some mistakes of its past - and they were
gross - recognised them and moved away. It has issued no confession or
apology but to judge from its current behaviour it seems to have
recognised some, if not many of its former defects. Only a serious party
can review and learn from past mistakes. See how badly the Dead-Left has
failed, or indeed regressed, in this respect.
The second reason is that the JVP seems to be struggling to evolve an

economic strategy that takes into account current global realities. After the
end of the Soviet Union and a new model of mixed economic growth
became apparent in China, which of us socialists is not grappling with the
complexities of globalisation and with both the crises and the survival of
world capitalism? The JVP manifesto is an honest attempt to cut a way
through this maze. Superficially it may read like RWs 60-month plan and
the UPFAs load of platitudes (these days economic strategy, verbally, all
over the developing world read like photocopies of each other). Still I
sense an underlying seriousness; The JVP grasps the need for a mixed
economy, creating opportunities for the middle classes, and guaranteeing
protection for the masses. Crucially it sees that all this must be embedded
in strong directive principles. Economists call it a dirigisme approach. The
JVP has not worked through the details in this first shot, but it is thinking
seriously.
My third point is controversial; I see the JVP inching in a progressive
direction on the national question. It has a long way to go; it is unwilling to
accept the right of Tamil people to govern themselves in their traditional
homelands. Nobody expects the JVP ever to adopt a Marxist position on
the right of nations to self-determination; it is too rooted in its past to
escape. It even gets loose bowels at the mention of devolution and the
word federalism gives it diarrhoea. Nevertheless a recent statement was
vouched in interesting language. I quote from a web-report of about 10
days ago.
JVP General Secretary Tilvin Silva said that the TNA had failed to meet the
expectations of the Tamils in the North and now it is attempting to use the
communal issue to win votes. He said the TNA election manifesto will go in
favour of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa as it speaks of a Federal
solution and devolution of powers. He said hard-line Sinhalese are opposed
to a Federal solution and Mahinda Rajapaksa is using this to win votes.
This is a damned sight better than the hot chauvinism years ago. The
emphasis is not that devolution or federalism are bad per se, but that the
TNA is playing into the hands of Sinhala chauvinists. I dont mind at all if
these JVP chaps move towards a reasonable position on the national
question without admitting that they were all wrong in the past; something
is better than nothing. After all it is only a person of Lenins calibre, for
whom educating party and the class was bounden duty, that could openly
discuss mistakes, why the party erred, and how to avoid them in future. It
is not reasonable to judge the JVP by this yardstick.

The big lacuna

Where the JVP has failed badly is in managing its relationship with other
left parties. Let me give the most recent washout. In recent months
alternative focal points emerged in the LSSP and the CP rejecting MR and
proposing support for MS. Many leading figures were expelled from both
parties without discussion of the issues. I have a relationship with them
and have been assured that they have the support of the majority in both
parties, but bureaucracy and structure are manipulated to prevent them
gaining control of the formal machinery. In this context they made
overtures to the JVP about a unified left but the JVP leadership gave them
short shrift in no uncertain terms. This is the latest example; from long
ago the JVP thought itself a cut above others and showed no interest in
dialogue with anyone else on the left. Its hot but short-lived love affairs
were with Chandrika, MR and Sarath Fonseka.
It is hard to believe but true that the leadership is so short-sighted. Syriza
in Greece, Podemos in Spain and HDP in Turkey, all multi-party left
alliances, are examples lost on the JVP. There is no way the JVP will ever
form a left government in Lanka except as leader of a left alliance.
Unfortunately, as always, it learns its lessons very late.
Posted by Thavam