Project Report

On

Hamilton County Judges

Submitted for the partial fulfillment of MBA course

Under the Guidance of:

Dr. Rudra Rameshwar

Submitted By:
Rajit Kaushal
501404096
Section 1

TABLE OF CONTENTS
S.NO.
SUBJECT
1

IDENTIFICATION OF VARIABLES

Q1. Find the probability of

cases being appealed and
reversed in the three different
courts.

Q2. Find the probability of a

case being appealed for each
judge.

Q3. Find the probability of a

case being reversed for each
judge.

5
6

Q4. Find the probability of

reversal given an appeal for
each judge.
Q5.Rank the judges within
each court. State the criteria
you used and provide a
rationale for your choice.

IDENTIFICATION OF VARIABLES:
i.

Judge

ii.

Disposed

iii.

Appealed

iv.

Reversed

v.

Court

QUESTION 1: Find the probability of cases being appealed and

reversed in the three different courts.
TABLE IS SHOWING THE NUMBER OF THE CASES BEING DISPOSED,
APPEALED AND REVERSED IN EACH TYPE OF COURT.

CASES
DISPOSED
COMMON COURT
DOMESTIC COURT
MUNI COURT
TOTAL CASES

CASES
APPEALED

43945
30499
108464
182908

CASES
REVERSED
1762
106
500
2368

199
17
104
320

The probability of the cases being appealed and reversed in the three
different courts can be calculated from the table given above.

Probability of the cases being appealed or reversed=

TOTAL NUMBER OF APPEALED/REVERSED CASES IN (COMMON, DOMESTIC OR
MUNI COURT)
TOTAL NUMBER OF CASES IN ALL THE COURTS
THE TABLE GIVEN BELOW SHOWS THE PROBABILITY OF THE APPEALED AND
REVERSED CASES IN EACH TYPE OF COURT

CASES APPEALED

CASES REVERSED

COMMON COURT
DOMESTIC COURT
MUNI COURT

0.744
0.0447
0.2111

0.6218
0.0531
0.325

So, from the data given above it can be concluded that the
74.40% of cases are being appealed in common court which
is the maximum among all courts but 62.18% of the cases
are also being reversed in the same court which is again the
maximum. Whereas these values are least in domestic court.
QUESTION 2:The probability of a case being appealed for each judge,
1. Common Pleas Court
Judge Probability of case appealed,

* Fred Cartolano
* Thomas Crush
* Patrick Dinkelacker
* Timothy Hogan
* Robert Kraft
* William Mathews
* William Morrissey
* Norbert Nadel
* Arthur Ney Jr.
* Richard Niehaus
* Thomas Nurre
* John O'Connor
* Robert Ruehlman
* J. Howard Sundermann
* Ann Marie Tracey
* Ralph Winkler

.04511
.03529
.03497
.03071
.04047
.04019
.03991
.04427
.03883
.04085
.04033
.04344
.04524
.06283
.04043
.02848

2. Domestic Relations Court

Judge Probability of case appealed,
Penelope Cunningham
Patrick Dinkelacker
Deborah Gaines
Ronald Panioto

.002565
.003166
.005455
.002467

3. Judge Probability of case appealed,

Mike Allen
Nadine Allen
Timothy Black
David Davis
Leslie Isaiah Gaines
Karla Grady
Deidra Hair
Dennis Helmick
Timothy Hogan
James Patrick Kenney
Joseph Luebbers
William Mallory
Melba Marsh

.006993
.004352
.005155
.005558
.006626
.001142
.001975
.003671
.005633
.002144
.005321
.004591
.004137

QUESTION 3: Find the probability of a case being reversed for each judge.
Probability of the cases being reversed for each judge=
THE NUMBER OF CASES REVERSED FOR THE JUDGE
TOTAL NUMBER OF CASES DISPOSED BY THE JUDGE

TABLE SHOWS THE PROBABILITY OF CASE BEING APPEALED AND REVERSED BY

EACH JUDGE

Judge
Fred Cartolano
Thomas Crush
Patrick Dinkelacker
Timothy Hogan
Robert Kraft
William Mathews
William Morrissey
Norbert Nadel
Arthur Ney Jr.
Richard Niehaus
Thomas Nurre
John O'Connor
Robert Ruehlman
J. Howard Sundermann Jr.
Ann Marie Tracey
Ralph Winkler
Penelope Cunningham
Deborah Gaines
Ronald Panioto
Mike Allen
Nadine Allen
Timothy Black
David Davis
Leslie Isaiah Gaines
Karla Grady
Deidra Hair
Dennis Helmick
James Patrick Kenney

Disposed

Appealed

PROBABILITY
OF CASE
BEING
APPEALED

3037
3372
7259
4262
3138
2264
3032
2959
3219
3353
3000
2969
3205
955
3141
3089
2729
8799
12970
6149
7812
7954
7736
5282
5253
2532
7900
2798

137
119
63
73
127
91
121
131
125
137
121
129
145
60
127
88
7
48
32
43
34
41
43
35
6
5
29
6

0.0451
0.0352
0.0083
0.0171
0.0404
0.0401
0.0399
0.0442
0.0388
0.0408
0.0403
0.0434
0.0452
0.0628
0.0404
0.0284
0.0025
0.0054
0.0024
0.0069
0.0043
0.0051
0.0055
0.0066
0.0011
0.0019
0.0036
0.0021

Reversed
12
10
12
9
7
18
22
20
14
16
6
12
18
10
13
6
1
9
3
4
6
6
5
13
0
0
5
1

PROBABILITY
OF CASE
BEING
REVERSED
0.0039
0.0029
0.0016
0.0021
0.0022
0.0079
0.0072
0.0067
0.0043
0.0047
0.002
0.004
0.0056
0.0104
0.0041
0.0019
0.0003
0.0004
0.0002
0.0006
0.0007
0.0007
0.0006
0.0024
0
0
0.0006
0.0003

Joseph Luebbers
William Mallory
Melba Marsh
Beth Mattingly
Albert Mestemaker
Mark Painter
Jack Rosen
Mark Schweikert
David Stockdale
John A. West

4698
8277
8219
2971
4975
2239
7790
5403
5371
2797

25
38
34
13
28
7
41
33
22
4

0.0053
0.0045
0.0041
0.0043
0.0056
0.0031
0.0052
0.0061
0.0042
0.0014

8
9
7
1
9
3
13
6
4
2

Question 4. The probability of a case being reversed given an appeal, per judge,
is:
a. Common Pleas Court:
Judge

| (P) of Reversal,given an Appeal |

Thomas Crush

| 0.084034 |

Patrick Dinkelacker

| 0.181818 |

Timothy Hogan

| 0.116667 |

Robert Kraft

| 0.055118 |

William Mathews

| 0.197802 |

William Morrissey

| 0.181818 |

Norbert Nadel

| 0.152672 |

Arthur Ney Jr.

| 0.112000 |

Richard Niehaus

| 0.116788 |

Thomas Nurre

| 0.049587 |

John O'Connor

| 0.093023 |

Robert Ruehlman

| 0.124138 |

J. Howard Sundermann Jr.

| 0.166667 |

0.0017
0.001
0.0008
0.0003
0.0018
0.0013
0.0016
0.0011
0.0007
0.0007

Ann Marie Tracey

| 0.102362 |

Ralph Winkler

| 0.068182 |

b. Domestic Relations Court:

Penelope Cunningham

| 0.142857 |

Patrick Dinkelacker

| 0.210526 |

Deborah Gaines

| 0.187500 |

Ronald Panioto

| 0.093750 |

c. Municipal Court:

Mike Allen

| 0.093023 |

Nadine Allen

| 0.176471 |

Timothy Black

| 0.146341 |

David Davis

| 0.116279 |

Leslie Isaiah Gaines

| 0.371429 |

Karla Grady

| 0.000000 |

Deidra Hair

| 0.000000 |

Dennis Helmick

| 0.172414 |

Timothy Hogan

| 0.153846 |

James Patrick Kenney

| 0.166667 |

Mark Painter

| 0.428571 |

Jack Rosen

| 0.317073 |

Mark Schweikert

| 0.181818 |

David Stockdale

| 0.181818 |

John A. West

| 0.500000 |

QUESTION 5: Rank the judges within each court. State the

criteria you used and provide a rationale for your choice.
The criteria we chose to rank the judges in each court is by
finding the conditional probability of the number of cases
disposed by him/her and the cases reversed for him.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY =
PROBABILITY OF DISPOSED CASES BY EACH JUDGE * PROBABILITY OF
CASES REVERSED FOR EACH JUDGE

Higher the conditional probability of the judge higher is the rank of

the judge in the court.
TABLE SHOWING THE CRITERIA AND RANK OF JUDGES IN
MUNI COURT

Dispose
d

Revers
ed

Cou
rt

PROBABILIT
Y OF CASES
BEING
DISPOSED

PROBABILIT
Y OF CASES
BEING
REVERSED

CONDITIONA
L
PROBABILIT
Y

Mike Allen

6149

Muni

0.033617994

0.0125

0.000420225

Nadine Allen

7812

Muni

0.042709996

0.01875

0.000800812

Timothy Black

7954

Muni

0.043486343

0.01875

0.000815369

David Davis
Leslie Isaiah
Gaines
Karla Grady

7736

Muni

0.042294487

0.015625

0.000660851

5282

13

Muni

0.028877906

0.040625

0.001173165

5253

Muni

0.028719356

Deidra Hair

2532

Muni

0.013843025

Dennis Helmick

7900

Muni

0.043191112

0.015625

0.000674861

Timothy Hogan
James Patrick
Kenney
Joseph Luebbers

2308

Muni

0.012618366

0.00625

0.000078864

2798

Muni

0.015297308

0.003125

0.000047804

4698

Muni

0.025685044

0.025

0.000642126

William Mallory

8277

Muni

0.045252258

0.028125

0.00127272

Melba Marsh

8219

Muni

0.044935159

0.021875

0.000982957

Beth Mattingly

2971

Muni

0.016243139

0.003125

0.000050759

Albert Mestemaker

4975

Muni

0.027199466

0.028125

0.000764985

Mark Painter

2239

Muni

0.012241127

0.009375

0.000114761

Jack Rosen

7790

13

Muni

0.042589717

0.040625

0.001730207

Judge

RAN
K

Mark Schweikert

5403

Muni

0.029539441

0.01875

0.000553865

David Stockdale

5371

Muni

0.029364489

0.0125

0.000367056

John A. West

2797

Muni

0.015291841

0.00625

0.000095574

TABLE SHOWING THE CRITERIA AND RANK OF JUDGES IN

DOMESTIC COURT

Judge

Dispose
d

Reverse
d

2729

6001

8799

12970

Penelope
Cunningham
Patrick
Dinkelacker
Deborah
Gaines
Ronald
Panioto

Court

Domesti
c
Domesti
c
Domesti
c
Domesti
c

PROBABILIT
Y OF CASES
BEING
DISPOSED

PROBABILITY
OF CASES
BEING
REVERSED

0.014920069

0.003125

0.032808844

0.0125

0.048106152

0.028125

0.070909966

0.009375

CONDITION
AL
PROBABILI
TY

RANK

0.00004662
5
0.00041011
1
0.00135298
6
0.00066478
1

TABLE SHOWING THE CRITERIA AND RANK OF JUDGES IN

COMMON COURT

Dispos
ed

Revers
ed

Fred Cartolano

3037

12

Thomas Crush
Patrick
Dinkelacker

3372

10

1258

Timothy Hogan

1954

Robert Kraft

3138

William Mathews

2264

18

William Morrissey

3032

22

Norbert Nadel
Arthur Ney Jr.

2959
3219

20
14

Judge

Court

Comm
on
Comm
on
Comm
on
Comm
on
Comm
on
Comm
on
Comm
on
Comm
on
Comm

PROBABILI
TY OF
CASES
BEING
DISPOSED
0.01660397
6
0.01843549
8
0.00687777
5
0.01068296
6
0.01715616
6
0.01237780
7
0.01657664
0.01617753
2
0.01759901

PROBABILI
TY OF
CASES
BEING
REVERSED

CONDITION
AL
PROBABILIT
Y

0.0375

0.000622649

0.03125

0.000576109

0.025

0.000171944

0.021875

0.00023369

0.021875

0.000375291

0.05625

0.000696252

0.06875

0.001139644

0.0625
0.04375

0.001011096
0.000769957

RANK

Richard Niehaus

3353

16

Thomas Nurre

3000

John O'Connor

2969

12

Robert Ruehlman
J. Howard
Sundermann Jr.

3205

18

955

10

Ann Marie Tracey

3141

13

Ralph Winkler

3089

on
Comm
on
Comm
on
Comm
on
Comm
on
Comm
on
Comm
on
Comm
on

2
0.01833162
0.01640168
8
0.01623220
4
0.01752247
0.00522120
4
0.01717256
8
0.01688827
2

0.05

0.000916581

0.01875

0.000307532

0.0375

0.000608708

0.05625

0.000985639

0.03125

0.000163163

0.040625

0.000697636

0.01875

0.000316655