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DKCRC Report 52 Economics of Feral Camel Control in The Central Region of The Northern Territory
DKCRC Report 52 Economics of Feral Camel Control in The Central Region of The Northern Territory
AG Drucker
Report
52
2008
AG Drucker
2008
Citation
Drucker AG. 2008. Economics of camel control in the central region of the Northern Territory, DKCRC
Research Report 52. Desert Knowledge CRC, Alice Springs. Available at http://www.desertknowledgecrc.com.
au/publications/contractresearch.html
The Desert Knowledge Cooperative Research Centre is an unincorporated joint venture with 28 partners whose mission
is to develop and disseminate an understanding of sustainable living in remote desert environments, deliver enduring
regional economies and livelihoods based on Desert Knowledge, and create the networks to market this knowledge in other
desert lands.
www.desertknowledgecrc.com.au
Desert Knowledge CRC 2008
The project was funded by Australian Government. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of
Desert Knowledge CRC or its participants.
II
Economics of came l c o n t r o l i n t h e c e n t r a l r e g i o n o f t h e N o r t h e r n T e r r i t o r y
Contents
Tables............................................................................................................................................................................IV
Figures.......................................................................................................................................................................... IV
List of shortened forms................................................................................................................................................. IV
Acknowledgements........................................................................................................................................................ V
Executive summary....................................................................................................................................................... VI
Recommendation 1: ........................................................................................................................................VII
Recommendation 2: ........................................................................................................................................VII
1. Introduction................................................................................................................................................................. 1
2. Conceptual background and modelling approach....................................................................................................... 3
3.1 Population...................................................................................................................................................... 5
4. Benefits of control....................................................................................................................................................... 9
4.1. Direct economic impacts: cattle production impacts and damage to infrastructure..................................... 9
5. Discussion................................................................................................................................................................. 13
6. Sensitivity analysis................................................................................................................................................... 15
7. Conclusions............................................................................................................................................................... 21
References..................................................................................................................................................................... 23
III
Tables
Table 1: Feral camel population and control costs under an annual removal strategy (1)..............................................7
Table 2: Present benefits under Strategy 1 with a 12-year time horizon and a 5% discount rate.................................11
Table 3: Net present value of alternative control strategies..........................................................................................13
Table 4: Present control costs and benefits under alternative feral camel population growth models
and assumptions..............................................................................................................................................16
Table 5: Total present costs of Strategy 1 under alternative discount rates and time horizons ($m) ............................19
Table 6: Net present value of control (Strategy 1) under alternative discount rates and time horizons ($m)..............20
Figures
Figure 1: Map of central NT ..........................................................................................................................................2
INRM
IPCC
NPV
NRETAS
Natural Resources, Environment, The Arts and Sport (NT Government Department)
NRM
NTG
PB
present benefits
PC
present costs
SER/CDU
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Economics of came l c o n t r o l i n t h e c e n t r a l r e g i o n o f t h e N o r t h e r n T e r r i t o r y
Acknowledgements
I should like to thank NRETAS Biodiversity Conservation staff Glenn Edwards, Keith Saalfeld, and
Benxiang Zeng for their assistance in providing the data upon which the model development and
analysis is based. Thanks also to Clive McMahon and Stephen Garnett (SER/CDU) regarding advice
about population modelling. The model development also benefited from previous work carried out
under the Australian Governmentfunded NRETAS project Review of threats to biodiversity in the
Northern Territory.
The work reported in this publication is supported by funding from the Australian Government through
the Desert Knowledge CRC; the views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of Desert
Knowledge CRC or its participants.
Executive summary
A cost-benefit analysis based on a bio-economic model was carried out to evaluate specific feral camel
control strategies in the central region of the Northern Territory (NT). Based on expert opinion obtained
through a series of workshops and meetings, and with a view to achieving the NT Integrated Natural
Resources Management (INRM) Plan goal by 2020, specific control strategies for feral camels in the
central region of the NT were identified.
Two different aerial control strategies were modelled. Strategy 1 involved annual removals, while
Strategy 2 involved periodic removals only when a specific feral camel density was reached. The
direct economic benefits for the pastoral industry of feral camel control were also modelled in terms
of reduced grazing competition together with infrastructure damage. A single environmental service
related to reduced methane emissions was further considered. Although cultural values and other
environmental services are also likely to be important, their modelling was beyond the scope of this
study. Consequently, the analysis carried out in this report does not account for these values.
The total present value of costs of the feral camel control strategies ranged from $5.39m (Strategy
2) to $6.00m (Strategy 1) over a 12-year time horizon (at a 5% discount rate), equivalent to an
annualised present cost of $608 000$676 000, respectively. Depending on how such a control program
were implemented, these costs could be both public and private in their incidence (i.e. incurred by
government and/or landholders).
Of the $6.00m Strategy 1 costs, $3.74m (62.3% of total) would be spent in year 1; $913 000 (15.2%
of total) in year 2; and $107 000166 000 in each year thereafter. It is therefore apparent that the vast
majority of the control costs are spent in the first two years of the control program, making the costeffectiveness of a go-stop policy low (Strategy 2).
Although control costs are large, they are far outweighed by the direct economic benefits to the
livestock industry from reduced competition between livestock and feral camels ($50.68m under
Strategy 1 or 57.9% of total present benefits). The value of reduced methane emissions is also large
($35.24m or 40.3% of total present benefits), while reduced infrastructure damages make a relatively
small contribution to total present benefits ($1.62m or 1.8%). Total present benefits under Strategy 1
are thus $87.54m over 12 years or $9.88m per annum and were larger than those found under Strategy 2
($83.98m).
The difference between the economic benefits under the different strategies suggests that a control
strategy based on annual removals is almost always likely to be preferred. We can therefore conclude
that the magnitude of the benefits arising from a given control strategy should play a key role in
control strategy choice. We also note that approximately 60% of the benefits (i.e. from reduced grazing
competition and infrastructure damage) will accrue privately to pastoralists, while the remaining 40%
(methane emissions avoided) will accrue publicly.
The net present value of control (i.e. total present benefits minus total present costs) is $81.54m
under Strategy 1. Delays in implementation of a control program could, however, reduce this value
significantly. For example, a one-year delay could reduce this value by $7.7m, largely because of
benefits forgone during the delay.
Given the large positive net present value of control and the robustness of the overall findings, there
would appear to be a very strong argument for considering the implementation of a full-scale, long-term
feral camel control program in the near future.
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Economics of came l c o n t r o l i n t h e c e n t r a l r e g i o n o f t h e N o r t h e r n T e r r i t o r y
The total present value of costs of NT INRM Plancompatible feral camel control strategies to 2020 in
the central region range from $5.39m (Strategy 2 periodic removals) to $6.00m (Strategy 1 annual
removals), equivalent to an annualised present cost of $608 000$676 000 respectively.
Finding 2:
The vast majority (77.686.3%) of the total present costs of control are spent during the first two
years. As such, annualised figures tend to significantly underestimate the control agencys funding
requirement in the first years of a control program.
Finding 3:
Although control costs are large, they are far outweighed by the economic benefits to the livestock
industry from reduced competition between livestock and feral camels ($50.68m), as well as to society
as a whole through reduced methane emissions ($35.24m). Including reduced infrastructure damage, the
net present value of control is $81.54m under Strategy 1 and $78.59m under Strategy 2.
Recommendation 1:
The difference between the present value of the economic benefits under the different strategies
suggests that a control strategy based on annual removals should be preferred over a strategy of periodic
removals.
Finding 4:
Although cultural values and other environmental services are also likely to be important, their
quantification in economic terms is not required to justify a decision regarding whether to undertake a
control program or not.
Finding 5:
The findings were found to be robust under a series of alternative assumptions. The uncertainty
regarding feral camel population estimates needs to be addressed in future years through improved
monitoring and data collection.
Finding 6:
Delays in implementation of a control program can reduce the present value of the benefits gained from
a control program significantly.
Recommendation 2:
Given the large positive net present value of control and the robustness of the overall findings, there
would appear to be a very strong argument for considering the immediate implementation of a fullscale, long-term feral camel control program.
VII
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Economics of came l c o n t r o l i n t h e c e n t r a l r e g i o n o f t h e N o r t h e r n T e r r i t o r y
1. Introduction
Like other regions of the world, the natural resources of the Northern Territory (NT) face a range of
threats, many of which are costing government, business, and individuals a great deal of money and
effort to counter. The threats include fire regimes that are changing vegetation patterns, introduced
animals that compete with or kill native wildlife, weeds that spread and replace native vegetation, and
land uses that destroy or degrade vegetation (Price et al. 2007).
Exotic pest animals have major economic, environmental, and social impacts across Australia
(Australian Pest Animal Strategy 2007). In a major review of the most significant threats to biodiversity
in the NT (covering fire, feral animals, pastoralism, weeds, and land clearing), one of the highest ranked
threats across all regions was related to the presence of large feral herbivores (Price et al. 2007). There
are 19 species of exotic vertebrate pests in the NT. Arabian camel, donkey, horse, cane toad, pig, water
buffalo, fox, and cat are considered major pests because they have a high level of overall impact at
current densities and distributions. Other species such as the European rabbit, wild dog (excluding
dingoes), and goat are considered to be moderate pests because they have lesser impacts to biodiversity,
at current levels. Other species such as the house sparrow, rock pigeon, turtle dove, samba deer, black
rat, brown rat, and banteng are considered minor pests as their overall impact is relatively minor (Price
et al. 2007).
Despite recognising the existence of these threats, their extent and severity is not well understood.
Furthermore, it is unclear whether the funding made available for the control of feral animals (by the
NT and Australian Governments) is either adequate or being effectively targeted. In principle, funding
should be directed to those species and regions where either the most cost-effective outcomes can
be achieved (in terms of reducing population numbers) or the highest net benefits can be obtained
(accounting for a reduction in production and environmental losses). This paper attempts to support
such an analysis by assessing the relative costs and benefits of two feral camel control strategies.
In order to carry out such an assessment, a cost-benefit analysis is carried out with regard to the central
region of the NT (see Figure 1) feral camel (Camelus dromedarius) control activities. Based on expert
opinion obtained through a series of workshops and meetings, population data were obtained and, with a
view to achieving the NT Integrated Natural Resource Management (INRM) Plan goal by 2020, specific
aerial control strategies were identified and modelled. The direct economic benefit to the pastoral
industry of feral camel control was also considered, together with the indirect economic benefits
associated with reduced infrastructure damage and reduced methane emissions. Model findings are
subjected to a sensitivity analysis in order to assess their robustness.
The remainder of this report is organised as follows: Section 2 details the conceptual background and
modelling approach, Section 3 details the costs of control, Section 4 details the benefits of control,
Section 5 discusses the findings, Section 6 subjects the model findings to a sensitivity analysis and
Section 7 presents conclusions.
Economics of came l c o n t r o l i n t h e c e n t r a l r e g i o n o f t h e N o r t h e r n T e r r i t o r y
The model developed is in the form of a spreadsheet decision-support tool (the model can be found at
http://www.desertknowledgecrc.com.au/publications/contractresearch.html) that feral camel managers
can use to inform future decision making. To this end, the report directs the reader to specific cells in
the spreadsheet model where the data in question can be found.
(1)
where PB and PC are, respectively, the present benefits and present costs of control. The use of a
discount rate r over i years (time horizon) of a control program is used so that future costs and benefits
can be expressed in present value terms. For simplicity, it is assumed that all costs and benefits of a
control program occur at the end of the year in which they are undertaken.
(2)
Cell references are presented as superscripts in the following format: where the reader is directed to a cell on the 1. Summary-Input Entry & Results page of the
spreadsheet, only the cell reference is used e.g. B4; where the reader is directed to one of the other spreadsheet pages, the cell reference is preceded by the sheet number
e.g. 2B4 for cell B4 on the 2. Camels CBA Model page, 3B4 for the equivalent cell on the 3. Initial Population Data page, etc. For example, the text in section
3.1 below: a natural growth rate of 10% C33 per year refers the reader to cell C33 in the spreadsheet, which gives the source of the population growth rate of 10%.
Economics of came l c o n t r o l i n t h e c e n t r a l r e g i o n o f t h e N o r t h e r n T e r r i t o r y
control costs are estimated to be $20C9/feral camel. At densities down to 0.15B10 feral camels/km2, these
costs are $40C10/feral camel, increasing to $60C11/feral camel for densities down to 0.1B11 animals/km2.
Below this density, costs increase to $110C12/animal (K Saalfeld 2008, NRETAS, pers. comm.).
In addition to aerial control costs, costs for management and administration of control methods
were estimated based on feral camel density. At densities equal to or above 0.25 feral camels/km2
management costs are assumed to be $60000C22 per year, falling to $5000C23 at densities lower than this.
In addition, status monitoring costs are fixed at $30,000C21 per year regardless of density.
The total present value of the control costs is thus closely related to initial and target feral camel
densities.
Economics of came l c o n t r o l i n t h e c e n t r a l r e g i o n o f t h e N o r t h e r n T e r r i t o r y
camel numbers removed in years 1 and 2 are identical to those under Strategy 1. In subsequent removal
years (years 12 and every 10 years thereafter) approximately 41750O88 feral camels would have to be
removed, compared with 2620 per year under Strategy 1.
Table 1: Feral camel population and control costs under an annual removal strategy (1)
Parameter
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3 and
thereafter
257231
72050
28820
262000
262000
262000
0.98
0.28
0.11
Target density/km 2
0.25
0.10
0.10
191731
45850
2620
65500
26200
26200
$20
$20
$60
$3834613
$917000
$157200
Status Monitoring
$30000
$30000
$30000
$60000
$60000
$5000
$3924613
$1007000
$192200
Total
$5997244
$676641
Note that the latter do not play a role in the current 12-year analysis.
Economics of came l c o n t r o l i n t h e c e n t r a l r e g i o n o f t h e N o r t h e r n T e r r i t o r y
4. Benefits of control
The benefits of feral animal control can be understood in terms of costs avoided as a result of the
implementation of a given control strategy. Costs avoided can be categorised as environmental, cultural,
and economic.
Environmental
In general, feral camels are known to have negative impacts on sensitive and threatened plants and plant
communities through grazing and trampling in areas where they occur. They contribute to soil erosion,
damage vegetation, and foul waterholes (Drges & Heucke 2003, P Latz, Ecological consultant, pers.
comm.). Feral camels are also considered to have a direct impact on sensitive and threatened animals
through habitat modification and competition for food and other resources where they occur at moderate
to high densities. Grazing and trampling also lead to a direct impact on landscape function. Camels are
responsible for methane emissions as a by-product of their digestive process.
Cultural
Feral camels have negative impacts on Aboriginal cultural values. Impacts occur through habitat
modification, damage to culturally important sites including waterholes, damage to cultural resources
such as bush foods and trees used for artefact production, and the loss of totemic animal species (refer
to Edwards et al. 2008 for more details).
Economic
In terms of production, there is a direct impact through competition for food and habitat modification
in areas where feral camels overlap with pastoralism, agriculture, and bush food production. In times of
scarce forage, and particularly in arid areas, feral camels are likely to compete for herbage with sheep
and cattle. This competition inflicts a direct cost on Australias grazing industries (McLeod 2004) while
indirect negative impacts (e.g. through damage to infrastructure and the spread of weeds) also occur on
production.
The magnitude of all the above impacts is assumed to increase with the feral camel density.
While the economic impact of feral camels in all three of these categories may be significant, as noted
above, due to data availability constraints we are only able to focus on the direct economic costs in
terms of the forgone (private) income from cattle production and the costs of infrastructure damage. A
single indirect cost associated with an environmental service methane emissions avoidance is also
considered. Assessing the economic values of the other environmental and cultural values is beyond the
scope of this study.
species are used in some areas, and property and paddock sizes are generally very large (Oxley et al.
2005). Currently, increasing demand and rising costs, as well as high land values, are placing pressure
on pastoralists to increase productivity, leading to further intensification of pastoral use through infrastructure development, increased stocking rates, and greater use of exotic pastures (Ash et al. 2006).
We assume a negative relationship between yields from cattle production and feral camel density.
Reducing the numbers of feral camels hence has potential benefits for the pastoralist industry.
We conservatively estimate the net income forgone per annum to the pastoralist from each head of cattle
that is replaced by feral camels to be $100C42. The magnitude of the production loss avoided depends on
a number of factors. These include:
The current feral camel population. This is extrapolated to the present from the most recent census
data that is available and varies in future years according to natural growth rates and removal efforts.
The proportion of the total feral camel population that is found on pastoral stations. This is estimated
as 20%.C45
The proportion of pastoral properties that provide good grazing and where competition with feral
camels actually takes place. This is estimated as 62%C44. Combined with the previous assumption this
means that 12.4% (0.62 x 0.2) of feral camels are directly competing with cattle.
The degree to which feral camels are considered to compete with cattle for scarce grazing resources.
The degree of competition is expressed as a proportion of the feral camel feed requirements to cattle.
This is assumed to be 1.5C43 times higher, that is, 1 feral camel = 1.5 cows.
Each feral camel can therefore be considered to cause an annual financial loss to cattle producers
through increased grazing competition of $18.60 (0.124 x 1.5 x $100), equivalent to $4.78m for a herd
of 257000 feral camels.
According to a pastoral property survey data (refer to Zeng & Edwards 2008 for more details) covering
infrastructure damage during the previous two years, damages to fences, yards, and water points
occurred on two-thirds of pastoral properties. Such damage was estimated by the landholders as
totalling $132500 per year; assuming that the amount of damage is directly proportional to feral camel
densities, we extrapolate this to $160000C49 per year at 2009 predicted densities. We also recognise that
this figure is at best a lower-bound estimate of infrastructure damage as the survey excluded a number
of other types of infrastructure, as well as some Aboriginal managed lands and conservation areas.
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Economics of came l c o n t r o l i n t h e c e n t r a l r e g i o n o f t h e N o r t h e r n T e r r i t o r y
The existence of approximately 257000 feral camels in the central region of the NT thus generates
approximately 248500 tons of CO2e per year, equivalent to 1.6% of total NT emissions (Garnett et al.
2008). Removing feral camels can therefore make a contribution to NT emission-reduction strategies
insofar as only a small proportion of removed feral camels are replaced by cattle, which have slightly
higher emissions (1.31 t/animal4A22 per year for rangeland beef cattle: AGDCC 2008). Helicopter CO2e
emissions resulting from removal activities are taken into account and are found to be relatively low at
0.014 t4A16 CO2e per feral camel (Garnett et al. 2008).
Following estimates by Hatfield-Dodds et al. (2007, p.8), which focus on the prospects for rural
Australians becoming valued service providers in Australias low carbon future, we assign a
conservative value of $15C52 per ton of CO2e emitted.
At the 2009 estimated feral camel population level, the value of CO2e emissions is thus approximately
$14.50/animal per year, equivalent to $3.73m4A35.
Table 2: Present benefits under Strategy 1 with a 12-year time horizon and a 5% discount rate
Type of benefit
50675922
57.9%
1619305
1.8%
35242741
40.3%
87537968
100%
9876507
A similar analysis for Strategy 2 reveals $83.98mI28 ($100.79m - $16.81m) of economic benefits,
equivalent to an annualised value of $9.48m I29.
For simplicity, it is assumed that the camel population is made up largely of adults emitting methane at the levels stated above.
Hatfield-Dodds et al. (2007, p.8) present a range of estimates of the Australian carbon price associated with steady action to achieve significant reductions in emissions
from 1990 or 2000 emission levels, along with a mid-range estimate of international carbon prices associated with feasible global action to avoid dangerous levels of climate
change. While these different estimates reflect different levels of annual and cumulative emissions, they suggest a likely price range of $15$65 in 2020 and $20$75 in
2025, and an effective mid-term price floor of $15$20 even with a very modest long-term emissions target or with offset sales targeting only overseas markets.
To generate these numbers, set two of the three values in C42, C49, and C52 to zero and then look up the result in I17.
11
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Economics of came l c o n t r o l i n t h e c e n t r a l r e g i o n o f t h e N o r t h e r n T e r r i t o r y
5. Discussion
As can be seen in the summary presented in Table 3, the costs associated with the density sensitive
Strategy 2 ($5.39m) are lower than those of Strategy 1 ($6.00m). The slightly higher cost effectiveness
of Strategy 2 is related to the fact that control costs increase exponentially and, therefore, it is cheaper
to only remove animals at higher densities (i.e. when their population reaches a density equal to, or
greater than, 0.25 animals/km2). This is in contrast to removing animals when they are always close to
0.1 animals/km2, as is the case under Strategy 1. Nevertheless, the difference between the two strategies
over 12 years is small.
By contrast, the difference in the benefits of control between the two strategies is much larger. Total
present benefits are $87.54m for Strategy 1 and $83.98m for Strategy 2. Benefits are lower under
Strategy 2 as higher feral camel populations are tolerated between removal years.
Under both strategies it is clear that the total present benefits far outweigh the total present costs of
control. While infrastructure damage avoided represents a relatively small proportion of the benefits
(1.8%), reduced grazing competition and reduced methane emissions are individually several times
greater than the control costs. Hence, we observe a high net present value for both control strategies
($81.54m I20 for Strategy 1 and $78.95mI31 for Strategy 2, over 12 years). This is equivalent to an
annualised value of $9.20m and $8.87m respectively. The benefit-cost ratio is greater than 14 in both
cases.
Table 3: Net present value of alternative control strategies
Strategy 1
Benefit-cost
5997244
87537968
81540724
9199866
Benefit-cost ratio
14.6
Strategy 2
Total present costs
5391893
83983961
78592068
8867182
Benefit-cost ratio
15.6
Despite the fact that Strategy 2 was slightly more cost effective, given that the net present value of
Strategy 1 is larger than that of Strategy 2, it is clear that the former would be the preferred control
strategy. As such, the remainder of the analysis in this report focuses only on Strategy 1.
We now subject the above findings to a sensitivity analysis.
Although the benefit-cost ratio of Strategy 2 is larger than that of Strategy 1, the actual choice criterion should be based on the net present value figures.
13
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Economics of came l c o n t r o l i n t h e c e n t r a l r e g i o n o f t h e N o r t h e r n T e r r i t o r y
6. Sensitivity analysis
The control costs and benefit estimates derived above are entirely dependent on the data provided by the
relevant experts. Insofar as the results obtained can provide useful ball park figures upon which policy
recommendations and future research priorities can be defined, it is useful to assess their robustness by
exploring the degree to which the model results are driven by and sensitive to particular assumptions.
Sensitivity analyses are thus carried out covering a range of factors, including feral camel population
growth rates, aerial shooting costs, the degree to which feral animals compete with livestock for grazing
resources, methane emission values, infrastructure constraints, discount rates, and time horizons.
15
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Economics of came l c o n t r o l i n t h e c e n t r a l r e g i o n o f t h e N o r t h e r n T e r r i t o r y
Control strategy 2
10.Total present value of feral camel
impacts
11. Total present cost of control
Control strategy 1
3.Total present value of feral camel
impacts
4. Total present cost of control
Theta ()
No control
0.10
$84808228
12.09
$78592068
15.58
$10430987
$92452465
$83983961
$9475525
$862464
$7644238
$5391893
$608342
$18288497
$16807972
10.99
$86874839
14.60
$81540724
$95574415
$10783223
$87537968
$9876507
$981533
$8699577
$676641
$15166547
$5997244
$0
$110740963
$13253965
$0
$100791933
390000
1.40
0.98
390000
367083
Baseline variant
(simple population
model higher growth)
Baseline
(simple population
model)
257231
Model 1b
Model 1a
(Baseline)
18.53
$70311569
$8385587
$74323566
$452655
$4011997
$15137328
15.95
$72175527
$8687812
$544579
$77002267
$4826740
$12458628
$0
$89460895
18.87
14.09
$53352179
$73264542
$6479250
$459769
$57427227
$4075048
$15282354
12.26
$6791614
$55283976
$554177
$60195787
$4911811
$12513793
$0
$72709580
262000
0.076
0.82
215615
Baseline variant
(using logistic model
data parameters)
Model 1d
$8728766
$462664
$77365249
$4100707
$15346328
16.21
$9045332
$75224703
$558074
$80171056
$4946353
$12540521
$0
$92711577
Not binding
(100000000)
Not binding
(100000000)
0.074
0.83
216912
Exponential
Population Model
Model 2
0.074
0.81
212430
Model 1c
12.86
$35562141
$4350517
$338204
$38559729
$2997588
$14092647
10.86
$4627228
$37235261
$426145
$41012289
$3777028
$11640087
$0
$52652376
262000
0.076
0.61
160131
logistic
population model
Model 3
12.71
$34075708
$4173031
$328425
$36986626
$2910917
$13900894
10.73
$4436946
$35659360
$413664
$39325766
$3666406
$11561754
$0
$50887520
0.79
266700
0.079
0.59
155848
Theta-logistic
population model
Model 4
Table 4: Present control costs and benefits under alternative feral camel population growth models and
assumptions
(3)
Bayliss estimated that helicopter costs in 1989 were approximately $220 per hour, which is equivalent to $500 in 2007 dollars. Given that helicopter costs are currently
approximately $800, it appears that such costs have increased much faster than suggested by the ABS consumer price index for transport in general.
10 To generate the numbers below, adjust C9C12.
11 Adjust B16.
12 Adjust C16 and D16.
17
densities and the degree to which the $110 cost level becomes an underestimate at very low densities
(i.e. far below 0.1 animals/km2. Nevertheless, as noted previously even under significant increases in
these costs net present values of control are likely to remain large and positive.
18
Economics of came l c o n t r o l i n t h e c e n t r a l r e g i o n o f t h e N o r t h e r n T e r r i t o r y
Table 5: Total present costs of Strategy 1 under alternative discount rates and time horizons ($m)
Years
5
12
20
50
10%
4.80
5.38
5.70
5.97
5%
5.13
6.00
6.69
7.80
1%
5.43
6.66
7.96
12.03
Discount rate
19
Table 6: Net present value of control (Strategy 1) under alternative discount rates and time horizons ($m)
Years
5
12
20
50
Discount rate
10%
24.95
59.57
79.04
95.09
5%
29.62
81.54
122.76
189.10
1%
34.24
107.55
185.30
427.52
It is nonetheless interesting to note that wherever the natural population growth rate is higher than the
discount rate (as it is in our baseline case), delaying the implementation of a control program will result
in higher present costs. Lower benefits also occur regardless of the discount ratepopulation growth
relationship. For example, delaying the implementation of Strategy 1 for even one year increases total
present costs to $6.16m and reduces the net present value of control to $73.84m.17
17 To generate these values, adjust the B16 target density to larger than the current density (e.g. 1) and C16 to 0.25.
20
Economics of came l c o n t r o l i n t h e c e n t r a l r e g i o n o f t h e N o r t h e r n T e r r i t o r y
7. Conclusions
A cost-benefit analysis is carried out with regard to feral animal control activities and the potential
benefits associated with such control activities. Based on expert opinion obtained through a series
of workshops and meetings, and with a view to achieving the NT INRM Plan goal by 2020, specific
control strategies for feral camels in the central region of the NT were identified.
Two different aerial control strategies were modelled. Strategy 1 involved annual removals, while
Strategy 2 involved periodic removals only when a specific feral camel density was reached. The direct
economic benefits for the pastoral industry of feral camel control were modelled in terms of reduced
grazing competition and infrastructure damage. A single environmental service related to reduced
methane emissions was also considered. Although cultural values and other environmental services are
also likely to be important, their modelling was beyond the scope of this study.
While the control program costs and benefit estimates derived above are entirely dependent on the data
provided by the relevant experts in this field, it is argued that the results obtained provide useful ball
park figures upon which policy recommendations and the identification of future research priorities
can be identified. The robustness of the findings were explored through a number of sensitivity analyses
covering such factors as feral camel population growth rates, aerial shooting costs, the degree to which
feral animals compete with livestock for grazing resources, methane emission values, infrastructure
constraints, discount rates, and time horizons. Overall findings were found to be robust under a series
of alternative assumptions related to existing feral camel population estimates, the degree of effective
competition between feral camels and cattle, the value of cattle, and the value of reduced methane
emissions. The uncertainty regarding feral camel population estimates needs to be addressed in future
years through improved monitoring and data collection.
The total present costs of the feral camel control strategies ranged from $5.39m (Strategy 2)$6.00m
(Strategy 1) over a 12-year time horizon (given a 5% discount rate) and are equivalent to an annualised
present cost of $608000$676000 respectively. Depending on how such a control program were
implemented, these costs could be both public and private in their incidence (i.e. incurred by
government and/or landholders).
Of the $6.00m Strategy 1 present costs, $3.74m (62.3% of total) is spent in year 1, $913000 (15.2%
of total) in year 2, and $107000$166000 in each year thereafter. It is therefore apparent that the
vast majority of the control costs are spent in the first two years of the control program. As such, the
annualised figures presented in this report, which represent the total 12-year cost smoothed over all 12
years, tend to significantly underestimate the control agencys funding requirement in the first years of a
control program.
Furthermore, it can be shown that if funding for aerial shooting were made available only for the first
year (but assuming monitoring costs continued to be incurred), then by year 12 $3.98m would still have
been spent, while the feral camel population would have recovered to 72.7% of its initial level. Despite
the fact that total present benefits would still have been significant (see below), it is clear that the cost
effectiveness of a go-stop policy is low.
Although control costs are large, they are far outweighed by the direct economic benefits to the
livestock industry from reduced competition between livestock and feral camels ($50.68m under
Strategy 1 or 57.9% of total present benefits). The value of reduced methane emissions is also large
($35.24m or 40.3% of total present benefits), while reduced infrastructure damages make a relatively
small contribution to total present benefits ($1.62m or 1.8%). Total present benefits under Strategy 1 are
thus $87.54m over 12 years or $9.88m per year and were larger than those under Strategy 2 ($83.98m).
The difference between these economic benefits suggests that a control strategy based on annual
21
removals is almost always likely to be preferred. We can therefore conclude that the magnitude of the
benefits arising from a given control strategy should play a key role in control strategy choice. We also
note that approximately 60% of the benefits (i.e. from reduced grazing competition and infrastructure
damage) will accrue privately to pastoralists, while the remaining 40% (methane emissions avoided)
will accrue publically.
The net present value of control (i.e. total present benefits minus total present costs) is $81.54m under
Strategy 1. We also note that total present benefits are likely to be only a lower-bound estimate, as in
some cases alternative control methods (e.g. ground shooting) may be cheaper than aerial shooting,
direct economic benefits could be generated from control programs (e.g. use of removed animals for
pet meat or human consumption), and cultural and additional environmental values could be taken into
account.
At the same time, a further implication of such findings is that even though the unquantified cultural
and many additional environmental benefits of a control program may be large, their valuation will not
affect the overall finding resulting from this cost-benefit analysis, that is, that the net present value of
control is large and positive.
Finally, we note that given the natural population growth rates and the large potential benefits of
control, delay in control program implementation can have a significant impact. Under current
assumptions, even a one-year delay in implementation can result in a decrease in net present value of
$7.7m (($81.54m $73.84m).
There would therefore appear to be a very strong argument for considering the implementation of a fullscale, long-term feral camel control program in the near future.
22
Economics of came l c o n t r o l i n t h e c e n t r a l r e g i o n o f t h e N o r t h e r n T e r r i t o r y
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