Bibliografija Stanovnistvo 1963-2012

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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/1963
godina I
Tasi, Dragoljub
DUGORONE PROMENE STAROSNE STRUKTURE STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE
LONG-TERM CHANGES IN AGE STRUCTURE OF THE POPULATION OF YUGOSLAVIA
9-45
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
postoji engleski rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/1963
godina I
Macura, Milo
POGLED NA DEMOGRAFSKE PROBLEME SAVREMENE AFRIKE
REVIEW OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS IN MODERN AFRICA
73-97
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
postoji ruski rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/komentar
broj 1/1963
godina I
Breznik, Duan
DEMOGRAFSKI PREGLED
98-110
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/komentar
broj 1/1963
godina I
Raevi, Miroslav
DIPLOMIRANI STUDENTI 1957-1961.
111-115
postoji krai engleski rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1963
godina I
Kosti, Darinka
DOLFE VOGELNIK "URBANIZACIJA KAO ODRAZ PRIVREDNOG RAZVOJA FNRJ"
116-118
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1963
godina I
eri, Milo
STATISTIKI BILTEN BR. 203, 214, 223 i 250 (REZULTATI POPISA STANOVNITVA 31.marta 1961)
118-121
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1963
godina I
Haas, Herta
CLAUD VIMONT "LA POPULATION ACTIVE", PARIS, 1960
121-124
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1963.
godina I
Klauzer, Jagoda
"DEMOGRAPHIC YEARBOOK 1060", NEW YORK, 1962
124-125
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1963
godina I
Pirc, Bojan
"ANNUEL EPIDEMIOLOGICAL AND VITAL STATISTICS 1958", WHO, GENEVA, 1956
125-126
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1963
godina I
Macura, Milo
ANNUAIRE DES STATISTIQUES DU TRAVAIL 1961, 1961.
126-127
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1963
godina I
Breznik, Duan
"L'EVOLUTION DEMOGRAPHIQUE DE 1956. A 1976. EN EUROPE OCCIDENTALE ET AUX ETATS-UNIS",
PARIS, 1961
128
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1963
godina I
Todorovi, Gordana
TABLICE SMRTNOSTI I SREDNJE TRAJANJE IVOTA U SSSR, 1958-1959", MOSKVA, 1962.
129-133
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 1/1963
godina I
ekari, Novak
OSNIVANJE CENTRA ZA DEMOGRAFSKA ISTRAIVANJA
134-136
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asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 1/1963
godina I
Pirc, Bojan
OSMA REVIZIJA MEUNARODNE KLASIFIKACIJE BOLESTI, POVREDA I UZROKA SMRTI
136-137
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 1/1963
godina I
Pecelj, Gorin
RAD UJEDINJENIH NACIJA NA DEMOGRAFSKIM PROBLEMIMA
137-138
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 1/1963
godina I
Kjuriev, Aleksandar
MEUNARODNI DEMOGRAFSKI SIMPOZIJUM U MAARSKOJ AKADEMIJI NAUKA, BUDIMPETA, 2830.11.1962.
138-140
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 1/1963
godina I
Macura, Milo
SEMINAR O DEMOGRAFSKIM PROBLEMIMA U AFRICI, KAIRO, 29.10-10.11.1962.
141-144
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/1963
godina I
Senti, Milica
EMA STALNIH REJONA ZA DEMOGRAFSKA ISTRAIVANJA
OUTLINING PERMANENT REGIONS FOR DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH
165-178
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
rezime srpski nema
postoji francuski rezime
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/1963
godina I
Macura, Milo
DEMOGRAFSKA ANALIZA U PRIPREMAMA ZA SEDMOGODINJI PLAN
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS IN PREPARATION OF SEVEN-YEAR PLAN
179-185
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/1963
godina I
Pecelj, Gorin
NIVO KOLSKOG OBRAZOVANJA STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE
SCHOOL QUALIFICATION LEVEL OF YUGOSLAVIA'S POPULATION
186-223
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 2/1963
godina I
Breznik, Duan, Novak ekari
SMRTNOST STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE PREMA STAROSTI I POLU, 1952-1961.
224-244
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/komentar
broj 2/1963
godinaI
Miljovski, Kiro
NEKI MOMENTI KOJI SE MORAJU UZETI U OBZIR KOD ANALIZE MIGRACIONIH KRETANJA I NJIHOVIH
SMETNJI
244-247
srpski rezime nema
postoji kratak francuski rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 2/1963
godina I
Raevi, Miroslav
TOKOVI KOLOVANJA UENIKA OSNOVNIH KOLA U SR SRBIJI
248-255
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/1963
godina I
Todorovi, Gordana
SONJA MASEVSKA "FERTILITETNI TABLICI ZA FNRJ I NRM ZA PERIOD 1952-1954." SKOPJE, 1962.
257-259
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/1963
godina I
Rani, Miroljub
MILORAD LEI "KRETANJE PLANINSKOG STANOVNITVA NR SRBIJE OD 1945-1959. GODINE",
BEOGRAD, 1962.
259-261
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/1963
godina I
Klauzer, Ivan
KATHERINE AND KENNETH ORGANSKI "POPULATION AND WORLD POWER", NEWYORK, 1961.
261-262
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/1963
godina I
Obradovi, Sava
"SELECTED STUDIES OF MIGRATION SINCE WORLD WAR II", NEW YORK, 1958.
263-265
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/1963
godina I
Gini, Ivanka
"LES ZONES DE PEUPLEMENT INDUSTRIEL OU URBAN", PARIS, 1962
265-268
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/1963
godina I
Maksimovi, Bratislava
"DEMOGRAPHIC ASPECTS OF MANPOWER, REPORT 1, SEX AND AGE PATTERNS OF PARTICIPATION IN
ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES", NEW YORK, 1962
268-274
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 2/1963
godina I
Klauzer, Ivan
ORGANIZACIJA I RAD NEKIH DEMOGRAFSKIH INSTITUTA U USA
274-278
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3/1963
godina I
Senti, Milica, Sava Obradovi
NOVI IZVORI ZA IZUAVANJE MIGRACIJE
NEW SOURCES FOR MIGRATION RESEARACH
305-314
k.r.
k.w.
rezime na francuskom
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3/1963
godina I
Miki, Fedor, Janko Hamerak
PISMENOST I DUINA IVOTA U JUGOSLAVIJI
LITERACY AND DURATION OF LIFE IN YUGOSLAVIA
315-338
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
rezime na engleskom
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3/1963
godina I
ifrer, ivko
RAZVITAK STANOVNITVA SLOVENIJE U POSLEDNJIH STO GODINA
339-366
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3/1963
godina I
Macura, Milo
LJUDSKI RESURSI NA KONFERENCIJI UN O PRIMENI NAUKE I TEHNIKE U KORIST MANJE RAZVIJENIH
ZEMALJA, ENEVA, 4-20.02.1963.
367-373
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3/1963
godina I
Todorovi, Gordana
SKRAENE TABLICE MORTALITETA STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE PREMA PODACIMA ZA 1931.
GODINU
373-382
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3/1963
godina I
Senti, Milica
IVKO IFRER "ISELJAVANJE S SLOVENSKEGA OZEMLJA", LJUBLJANA, 1962.
383-385
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3/1963
godina I
Rani, Miroljub
MLADEN FRIGANOVI "STANOVNITVO IBENSKOG PRIMORJA", ZAGREB, 1962.
386-387
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3/1963
godina I
Macura, Milo
ROSSET EDWARD "PERSPEKTYWY DEMOGRAFICZNE POLSKI", VARAVA, 1960
387-388
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3/1963.
godina I
Breznik, Duan
ROLAND PRESSAT "L'ANALYSE DEMOGRAPH1QUE", PARIS, 1961
388-392
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 3/1963
godina I
Macura, Milo
SASTANAK MEUNARODNE UNIJE ZA NAUNO IZUAVANJE STANOVNITVA, OTAVA, 21-26.08.1963.
393-395
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 3/1963
godina I
Tasi, Dragoljub
SASTANAK SAVEZNE KOMISIJE ZA ZDRAVSTVENU I VITALNU STATISTIKU
395-398
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asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/komentar
broj 4/1963
godinaI
Macura, Milo, Milica Senti
MARKSOV PRILOG NAUCI O STANOVNITVU
417-426
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 4/1963
godina I
Gini, Ivanka
MERENJE NIVOA URBANIZACIJE U SVETLU SKORANJIH POPISNIH PODATAKA
427-456
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 4/1963
godina I
Rosset, Edward
DEMOGRAFSKI PREGLED SAVREMENE POLJSKE
DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEY OF CONTEMPORARY POLAND
457-476
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 4/1963
godina I
Dimni, Filip
STALNO ILI PRISUTNO STANOVNITVO?
LA POPULATION PERMANENTE OU PRSENTE
(nema engleski naslov)
477-525
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
postoji dui francuski rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 4/1963
godina I
Mili, Rua
VII SASTANAK JUGOSLAVENSKOG STATISTIKOG DRUTVA, OHRID, 19-21. 09.1963.
526-531
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1963
godina I
Breznik, Duan
FEDOR MIKI, BORIS DEBEVEC "TELESNI RAZVOJ SLOVENSKE OSNOVNOOLSKE MLADINE"
532-534
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1963
godina I.
Petrovi, Rua
DARINKA KOSTI "PROMENE U DRUTVENOM IVOTU KOLONISTA", BEOGRAD, 1963.
534-535
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1963
godina I
Peujli, Miroslav
PROBLEMI STANOVNITVA NA PRVOM NAUNOM SKUPU "MARKS I SAVREMENOST"
535-537
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1963
godina I
Jasi, Marijeta
DEMOGRAFSKA STATISTIKA 1960.
538-539
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1963
godina I
Tasi, Dragoljub
"STUDIA DEMOGRAFICZNE" ORGAN KOMITETU NAUK DEMOGRAFICZNYCH POLSKIEJ AKADEMII
NAUK
539-540
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 4/1963
godina I
erstnev, E.
SAVETOVANJE O PROBLEMIMA PREKIDA TRUDNOE I KONTRACEPCIJE, BEOGRAD, 19-20.11.1963.
540-544
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 4/1963
godina I
Pop-Antoska, Hristina
PROBNI POPIS STANOVNITVA I ZANIMANJA U NEMAKOJ DEMOKRATSKOJ REPUBLICI
544-545
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10
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/1964
godina II
PRELAZAK POLJOPRIVREDNOG STANOVNITVA U NEPOLJOPRIVREDNE DELATNOSTI
TRANSFER OF AGRICULTURAL POPULATION TO NON-AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES
5-20
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/1964
godina II
Steinman, Zora
UTICAJ JEDINSTVENE OSNOVNE KOLE NA ORIJENTACIJU KA DALJNJEM KOLOVANJU
THE INFLUENCE ON THE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL UPON THE INCENTIVE IMPULSE TOWARDS FURTHER
EDUCATION
21-33
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/1964
godina II
Fajfr, Frantiek, Milo Macura
DEMOGRAFSKA ISTRAIVANJA U EHOSLOVAKOJ
DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH WORK IN CZECHOSLOVAKIA
34-38
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
postoji kratak engleski rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1/1964
godina II
Bogdani, Ivo
ZDRAVSTVENI RADNICI SA VISOKOM SPREMOM U JUGOSLAVIJI
39-48
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1/1964
godina II
Novkovi, edomil
OSVRT NA DEMOGRAFSKO STANJE I KRETANJE U SVETU
49-62
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1964
godina II
Senti, Milica
MARK KRASNII "SAVREMENE DRUTVENO-GEOGRAFSKE PROMENE NA KOSOVU I METOHIJI"
63-65
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1964
godina II
Rani, Miroljub
MARKO MLADENOVI "PORODICA I PORODINI ODNOSI", BEOGRAD, 1963.
65-69
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1964
godina II
Plavec, Anelija
"POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS", NEW YORK, 1963
69-76
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 1/1964
godina II
Senti, Milica
SAVETOVANJE EKONOMISTA O SEDMOGODINJEM PLANU RAZVOJA SR SRBIJE, NI, 3-4.02.1964.
77-78
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/1964
godina II
Senti, Milica, Duan Breznik
DEMOGRAFSKA KRETANJA I PROJEKCIJE U JUGOSLAVIJI
DEMOGRAPHIC MOVEMENT AND PROJECTIONS IN YUGOSLAVIA
101-140
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
postoji ruski rezime (sadraj svih 12 poglavlja studije CDI pod istim imenom kao lanak)
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/1964
godinaII
Petrovi, Rua
POVEZANOST PROMENA U BROJU I STRUKTURI STANOVNITVA
RELATIONS OF CHANGES AS REGARDS THE NUMBER AND STRUCTURE OF POPULATION
141-153
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
11
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12
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/komentar
broj 2/1964
godina II
Macura, Milo
DRUGA SVETSKA KONFERENCIJA O STANOVNITVU, BEOGRAD, 1965.
155-164
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/1964
godina II
Senti, Milica
KLAUZER JAGODA "MORTALITET DOJENADI U SR HRVATSKOJ"
164-166
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/1964
godina II
Todorovi, Gordana
"VARIATIONS IN PERINATAL MORTALITY WITH SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC FACTORS AND PRENATAL
CARE", GTEBORG, 1956
167-168
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/1964
godina II
Rani, Miroljub
MARKO MLADENOVI "RAZVOD BRAKA", BEOGRAD, 1964.
168-172
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3/1964
godina II
Miki, Fedor
PRIRODNO GIBANJE STANOVNISTVA U SELU BRSE (ISTRA), 1772-1956. PRILOG BIODEMOGRAFIJI
MIKRORAJONA
THE VILLAGE OF BRSEC (ISTRIA), 1772-1956 CONTRIBUTION TO THE BIODEMOGRAPHY AND RURAL
SOCIOLOGY OF MICROZONE
197-260
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3/1964
godina II
Vuleti, Silvije
REGIONALNI NATALITET U SR HRVATSKOJ POSLEDNJIH OSAMDESET GODINA
REGIONAL NATALITY IN CROATIA IN THE LAST 80 YEARS
261-272
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3/1964
godina II
FORMIRANJE RADNE SNAGE U JUGOSLAVIJI U ZAVISNOSTI OD STARENJA STANOVNITVA
THE FORMATION OF LABOUR FORCE IN YUGOSLAVIA WITH REGARD TO THE AGEING OF
POPULATION
273-283
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3/1964
godina II
Vasiljevi, Dragomir
POLITIKA ZAPOSLENOSTI MEUNARODNI INSTRUMENTI USVOJENI NA 48. ZASEDANJU
MEUNARODNE KONFERENCIJE RADA
284-291
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3/1964
godina II
Raevi, Miroslav
NASTAVA DEMOGRAFIJE NA III STEPENU PRINCETON UNIVERZITETA, SAD
291-295
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3/1964
godina II
Senti, Milica
STATISTIKI GODISNJAK SFRJ 1964.
296-298
13
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3/1964
godina II
Bogdani, Ivo
STATISTIKI GODINJAK O NARODNOM ZADRAVLJU I ZDRAVSTVENOJ SLUBI U SFRJ 1960. I 1961.
GODINE
298-299
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3/1964
godinaII
RADNICI-SLUBENICI PREMA POPISU STANOVNITVA 1961. GODINE
299-300
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3/1964
godina II
Stojkov, Nikola
D. SAVI, R. NEUBAUER "TUBERKULOZA U SFRJ", BEOGRAD, 1963.
300-303
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3/1964
godina II
Obradovi, Sava
"PROBLEMS IN AFRICAN DEMOGRAPHY", PARIS, 1960
303-304
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 3/1964
godina II
Breznik, Duan
SIMPOZIJUM O DEMOGRAFSKIM I HUMANO-BIOLOKIM PROBLEMIMA IZOLATA, BUDIMPETA I
EGER, 25-28.09.1964.
305-307
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 4/1964
godina II
Senti, Milica
KARAKTERISTIKE RAZVOJA SKLOPLJENIH I RAZVEDENIH BRAKOVA U JUGOSLAVIJI
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARRIAGES AND DIVORCES IN YUGOSLAVIA
329-338
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
14
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 4/1964
godina II
Stojkov, Nevena
MORTALITET DECE OD TUBERKOLOZE U JUGOSLAVIJI U PERIODU 1951-1962.
THE MORTALITY OF CHILDREN BY TUBERCULOSIS IN YUGOSLAVIA IN THE PERIOD 1951-1962
339-358
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 4/1964
godina II
Miki, Fedor
GIBANJE PREZIMENA UMRLIH BRSEANA, 1773-1956
THE MOBILITY OF SURNAMES AMONG THE DECEASED IN THE VILLAGE OF BRSEC, 1773-1956
359-363
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
postoji vrlo kratak francuski rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 4/1964
godina II
Miki, Fedor
PROSVJETA U SELU BRSE
EDUCATION IN THE VILLAGE OF BRSEC
364-366
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 4/1964
godina II
Gini, Ivanka
XV SKUPTINA STALNE KONFERENCIJE GRADOVA JUGOSLAVIJE, LJUBLJANA, 5-7.11.1964.
366-372
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 4/1964
godina II
Breznik, Duan
DEMOGRAFSKI SIMPOZIJUM ZAKOPANE, 10-13.10.1964.
373-375
15
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16
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1964
godina II
Senti, Milica
VLADIMIR SIMEUNOVI "STANOVNITVO JUGOSLAVIJE I SOCIJALISTIKIH REPUBLIKA 1921-1961.",
BEOGRAD, 1964.
376-381
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1964
godina II
Senti, Milica
DEMOGRAFSKA STATISTIKA 1962.
381-384
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1964
godina II
Senti, Milica
A. MOJI "POBAAJ I REGULISANJE ZAEA", BEOGRAD-ZAGREB, 1964.
384-386
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1964
godina II
Dimkovi, Borislav
ARKO OSI "REZERVE RADNE SNAGE U SREMSKOMITROVAKOM SREZU", NOVI SAD, 1964.
386-388
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1964
godina II
Macura, Milo
ZDENEK PAVLIK "NASTIN POPULANIHO VYVOJE SVETA", PRAHA, 1964.
389-392
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1964
godina II
Rani, Miroljub
"RAANJE I TRAJANJE IVOTA U SSSR-u", MOSKVA, 1963.
392-395
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1964
godina II
Breznik, Duan
"BEVEZETS A DEMOGRFIAB" (UVOD U DEMOGRAFIJU), BUDAPEST, 1963.
395-396
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U 11996633--22001122..
17
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1964
godina II
Todorovi, Gordana
GRUPA AUTORA "TABLICE SMRTNOSTI STANOVNITVA U BUGARSKOJ ZA PERIOD 1946-1957", SOFIJA,
1958.
396-398
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/1965
godinaIII
Macura, Milo
RAZMATRANJA O ODNOSIMA IZMEU STANOVNITVA I PRIVREDE
SOME CONSIDERATIONS ABOUT THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE POPULATION AND ECONOMY
5-11
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/1965
godina III
Senti, Milica, Sava Obradovi
EKONOMSKI RAZVOJ I MIGRACIONA KRETANJA U JUGOSLAVIJI
THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND MIGRATIONAL MOVEMENT IN YUGOSLAVIA
12-16
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/1965
godina III
Breznik, Duan
NEKI ASPEKTI DEMOGRAFSKIH, SOCIJALNIH I EKONOMSKIH POSLEDICA STARENJA STANOVNITVA
SOME ASPECTS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION
AGEING
17-22
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
B
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AFFIIJJA
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VL
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ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/1965
godina III
Raevi, Miroslav
NEKI SOCIO-EKONOMSKI FAKTORI KAO DETERMINANTE FERTILITETA JUGOSLOVENSKOG
STANOVNITVA
SOME SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS AS THE DERMINANTS OF THE FERTILITY OF YUGOSLAV
POPULATION
23-28
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1/1965
godina III
Jakovev, Gojko
OSVRT NA MIGRACIJE STANOVNITVA SEVERNE DALMACIJE DO 1941.
29-35
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1/1965
godinaIII
Maksimovi, Bratislava, Rua, Mili
DEMOGRAFSKI, DRUTVENI I EKONOMSKI INIOCI POJAVLJIVANJA SOCIJALNIH PROBLEMA
36-48
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1965
godina III
Rani, Miroljub
"SOCIOLOGIJA SELA BR. 1-6, 1963/1964", ZAGREB, 1964.
49-51
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1965
godina III
Macura, Milo
"NASELENIE MIRA (SPRAVONIK)", MOSKVA, 1965.
52-55
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1965
godina III
Raevi, Miroslav
"HUMAN FERTILITY AND POPULATION PROBLEMS", USA, 1963.
55-57
18
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19
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1965
godina III
Breznik, Duan
"DER VERLAUF DER STERBEINTENSITT DER SUGLINGE NACH DEM ALTER UND SEINE
DARSTELLUNG DURCH DEN HYPERBOLISCHEN TREND", NEMAKA DEMOKRATSKA REPUBLIKA,
1964.
57-58
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1965
godina III
"DIE ANTHROPOMETRISCHEN MASSE DER NEUGEBORENEN IN DEN JAHREN 1959 BIS 1962",
NEMAKA DEMOKRATSKA REPUBLIKA, 1964.
58-59
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1965
godina III
Kozlica, Olivera
"MNOHOJAZYN DEMOGRAFICK SLOVNIK", PRAHA, 1965.
59
***************************************************************************
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2-3/1965
godina III
Macura, Milo
MEUNARODNA STRANA DEMOGRAFSKOG RAZVITKA
INTERNATIONAL ASPECT OF DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT
81-99
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2-3/1965
godina III
Valentej, Dimitrij
PROBLEMI STANOVNITVA NEDOVOLJNO RAZVIJENIH ZEMALJA I KRITIKA "DEMOGRAFSKOG" PUTA
NJIHOVIH REENJA
POPULATION PROBLEMS OF THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND CRITIC OF THE "DEMOGRAPHIC"
WAY OF THEIR SOLUTION
100-111
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
B
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BL
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ASSO
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
20
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2-3/1965
godina III
Todorovi, Gordana
DEMOGRAFSKA PROBLEMATIKA PENZIJSKOG SISTEMA (REZIME STUDIJE CDI)
DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS OF THE PENSION SYSTEM (SUMMARY OF A STUDY OF DRC)
112-129
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2-3/1965
godina III
Vuleti, Silvije
REGIONALNI FERTILITET U SR HRVATSKOJ
REGIONAL FERTILITY IN CROATIA
130-146
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 2-3/1965
godina III
Bogdani, Ivo
SASTANAK SAVEZNE KOMISIJE ZA VITALNU I ZDRAVSTVENU STATISTIKU, BEOGRAD, 15-16.04.1965.
147-151
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 2-3/1965
godina III
Macura, Milo
XIII ZASEDANJE KOMISIJE ZA STANOVNITVO UJEDINJENIH NACIJA
152-157
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 2-3/1965
godina III
Pop-Antoska, Hristina
DEMOGRAFSKI SIMPOZIJUM U LIBLICAMA, 25-28.05.1965.
158-164
B
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ASSO
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
21
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 2-3/1965
godina III
Nikoli, Nevenka
SEMINAR O ORGANIZACIJI I SPROVOENJU POPISA, ANKARA, 6-20.06.1965.
165-168
postoji krai francuski rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2-3/1965
godina III
Pecelj, Gorin
MIROSLAV RAEVI "REGIONALNO POREKLO STUDENATA JUGOSLAVIJE", BEOGRAD, 1965.
168-178
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2-3/1965
godina III
Rani, Miroljub
"LEPENICA PRIRODA, STANOVNITVO, PRIVREDA I ZDRAVLJE", SARAJEVO, 1964.
179-180
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2-3/1965
godina III
Senti, Milica
GUY POURCHER "LE PEUPLEMENT DE PARIS", PARIS, 1964
181-185
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2-3/1965
godina III
Raevi, Miroslav
"POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONES", No 7/1963, NEW YORK, 1965
185-190
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 2-3/1965
godina III
Lalovi, Miroslav
SAVETOVANJE O PROBLEMIMA EMPIRIJSKIH ISTRAIVANJA U DRUTVENIM NAUKAMA, OHRID, 59.05.1965.
191-193
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ASSO
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 4/1965
godinaIII
Senti, Milica
ZNAAJ CVIJIEVOG RADA ZA SAVREMENA ISTRAIVANJA MIGRACIJA
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF CVIJIC' S WORK FOR PRESENT-DAY RESEARCH INTO MIGRATION
241-246
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 4/1965
godina III
Breznik, Duan
FERTILITET ENSKOG STANOVNITVA U INDUSTRIJALIZOVANIM ZEMLJAMA
FERTILITY OF FEMALE POPULATION IN THE INDUSTRIALISED COUNTRIES
247-251
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
engleski rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 4/1965
godina III
Serdar, Vladimir
REPREKUSIJE RAZLIITIH STOPA PRIRODNOG PRIRASTA NA OBRAZOVNI NIVO STANOVNITVA
JUGOSLAVIJE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE DIFFERENT RATES OF NATURAL INCREASE OF POPULATION ON
EDUCATIONAL LEVEL OF YUGOSLAV POPULATION
253-260
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 4/1965
godina III
Macura, Milo
DEMOGRAFSKE PROJEKCIJE I FORMULISANJE PROGRAMA RAZVOJA
DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS AND THE ELABORATION OF THE PROGRAMME OF DEVELOPMENT
261-267
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
22
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 4/1965
godinaIII
Ban, Milenko
POMAUI LANOVI PORODICE I DEFINICIJA AKTIVNOG STANOVNITVA
FAMILY HELPERS AND THE DEFINITION OF ACTIVE POPULATION
269-275
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 4/1965
godina III
Macura, Milo
SVETSKA KONFERENCIJA O STANOVNITVU, BEOGRAD, 1965.
276-284
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 4/1965
godina III
Breznik, Duan, Dragoljub Tasi
SMRTNOST ODOJADl U JUGOSLAVIJI
284-293
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1965
godina III
Senti, Milica
SAVEZNI ZAVOD ZA STATISTIKU STATISTIKI GODINJAK SFRJ 1965
299-300
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1965
godina III
Gini, Ivanka
M. ALLAHVERDIJEV "SOCIJALISTIESKI ZAKON NARODONASELENIYA" NA MATERIJALAH
AZERBAIDANSKOJ SSR, BAKU, 1965.
300-305
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1965
godina III
Breznik, Duan
EGON VIELORSE "ELEMENTS OF THE NATURAL MOVEMENT OF POPULATION", VARAVA, 1965.
306-308
23
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ASSO
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 4/1965
godina III
Rani, Miroljub
SIMPOZIJUM O STANOVNITVU I NASELJIMA, BANJA KOVILJAA, 14-16.10.1965.
309-311
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/1966
godina IV
Macura, Milo
RAZMILJANJA POVODOM OSNOVA DEMOGRAFSKE TEORIJE
SOME CONSIDERATIONS WITH REGARD TO THE BASIS OD DEMOGRAPHIC THEORY
5-24
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/1966
godina IV
Obradovi, Sava
UTICAJ PRIVREDNOG RAZVOJA NA MIGRACIONA KRETANJA U JUGOSLAVIJI
IMPACT OF THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ON MIGRATORY MOBILITY IN YUGOSLAVIA
25-28
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/1966
godina IV
Pavlik, Zdenek
O NEKIM PROBLEMIMA POPULACIONOG RAZVITKA
SOME PROBLEMS OF POPULATION DEVELOPMENT
29-39
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/1966
godina IV
Husein, Hasan
POPULACIONA SITUACIJA U UAR
40-43
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
postoji kratak ruski rezime
24
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ASSO
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
25
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/1966
godina IV
Todorovi, Aleksandar
URBANIZACIJA I MALOLETNIKA DELIKVENCIJA
URBANIZATION AND JUVENILE DELIQUENCE
44-55
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
rezime srpski nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1/1966
godina IV
PROBLEMI RADNE SNAGE NA DRUGOJ SVETSKOJ KONFERENCIJI O STANOVNITVU
56-67
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1/1966
godina IV
Steinman, Zora
DEMOGRAFSKI ASPEKTI RAZVOJA OBRAZOVANJA NA DRUGOJ SVETSKOJ KONFERENCIJI O
STANOVNITVU
68-74
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1966
godina IV
Gini, Ivanka
ALEKSANDAR TODOROVI "UVOD U SOCIOLOGIJU GRADA", BEOGRAD, 1965.
75-77
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1966
godina IV
G.A. SLESAREV "METODOLOGIJA SOCIOLOKIH ISTRAIVANJA STANOVNITVA SSSR-A", MOSKVA, 1965.
78-80
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1966
godinaIV
Nikoli, Nevenka
KNJIGE REZULTATA POPISA STANOVNITVA 1961. GOD.
80-82
asopis Stanovnitvo
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BL
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ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
prikaz
broj 1/1966
godina IV
Breznik, Duan
EDWARD ROSSET "OBLICZE DEMOGRAFICZNE POLSKI LUDOWEJ", WARSZAWA, 1965
82-86
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/1966
godina IV
Kraovec, Stane
ULOGA SELJAKA-RADNIKA U EKONOMSKOM RAZVITKU U USLOVIMA PRITISKA STANOVNITVA
ROLE OF PEASANT-WORKERS IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT UNDER CONDITIONS OF POPULATION
PRESSURE
101-106
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/1966
godinaIV
Lorimer, Frank
USKLAIVANJE INSTITUCIONALNIH I DEMOGRAFSKIH FAKTORA U EKONOMSKOM RAZVOJU
THE BALANCE OF INSTITUTIONAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
107-115
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/1966
godina IV
Gini, Ivanka
DEMOGRAFSKI IZVORI I FAKTORI URBANIZACIJE U SR SRBIJI
DEMOGRAPHIC SOURCES AND FACTORS OF URBANIZATION IN SR SERBIA
116-126
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/komentar
broj 2/1966
godinaIV
Breznik, Duan
DEMOGRAFSKI PREGLED
127-146
asopis Stanovnitvo
26
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27
prikaz
broj 2/1966
godina IV
Lalovi, Miroslav
"GODINJAK INSTITUTA DRUTVENIH NAUKA 1965", BEOGRAD, 1965.
146-149
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/1966
godina IV
Senti, Milica
GERONTOLOGIJA, MEDICINSKI GLASNIK BR. 12/1966
151-154
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/1966
godina IV
Novakovi, edomil
B.C.ULANIS "DINAMIKA I STRUKTURA STANOVNITVA SSSR I SAD", MOSKVA, 1964.
154-163
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/1966
godina IV
Kozlica, Olivera
"VIEJEZIKI DEMOGRAFSKI RENIK" (RUSKA VERZIJA), NEW YORK, 1964.
163-164
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 2/1966
godina IV
Gini, Ivanka
SAVETOVANJE O PROBLEMIMA UTVRIVANJA POLITIKE URBANIZACIJE U SR SRBIJI, BEOGRAD, 1314.06.1966.
165-166
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3/1966
godina IV
Senti, Milica
STRUKTURA STANOVNITVA I RADNE SNAGE NA SELU U JUGOSLAVIJI
STRUCTURE OF RURAL POPUALTION AND LABOUR FORCE IN YUGOSLAVIA
185-191
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
B
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BL
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EN
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TV
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AFFIIJJA
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ASSO
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
28
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3/1966
godina IV
Kjurijev, Aleksandar
PROMENE U BROJU I STRUKTURI RADNE SNAGE U SFRJ (DOSADANJI RAZVOJ I PERSPEKTIVA)
CHANGES IN THE NUMBER AND STRUCTURE OF THE LABOUR FORCE IN SFRJ (PRESENT
DEVELOPMENT AND PERSPECTIVE)
192-198
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3/1966
godina IV
Rani, Miroljub
UTICAJ NEKIH DEMOGRAFSKIH I SOCIO-EKONOMSKIH FAKTORA NA VELIINU DOMAINSTAVA U
JUGOSLAVIJI
IMPACT ON SOME DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS ON THE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLDS IN
YUGOSLAVIA
199-205
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3/1966
godina IV
Pirc, Bojan
O MORTALITETU KAO MERI ZDRAVLJA STANOVNITVA
ON MORTALITY AS A MEASURE OF HEALTH OF POPULATION
206-215
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3/1966
godina IV
Breznik, Duan
REGIONALNE RAZLIKE U STOPAMA AKTIVNOSTI (JUGOSLAVIJA 1961.)
REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN THE ACTIVITY RATES (IN YUGOSLAVIA 1961)
216-223
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
B
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BL
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ASSO
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3/1966
godina IV
Vuleti, Silvije
OSVRT NA SEDNICU "GENETIKA STANOVNITVA" II SVETSKE KONFERENCIJE STANOVNITVA U
BEOGRADU
224-227
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/komentar
broj 3/1966
godinaIV
Pecelj, Gorin
OSVRT NA OSNOVNI ZAKON O STATISTICI
229-232
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3/1966
godina IV
Kozlica, Olivera
CLAUDE LEGEARD "GUIDE DE RECHERCHES DOCUMENTAIRES EN DEMOGRAPHIE", PARIS, 1966
232-233
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3/1966
godina IV
Kozlica, Olivera
PAUL PAILLAT "SOCIOLOGIE DE LA VIEILLESSE", PARIS, 1963
234-235
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3/1966
godina IV
Todorovi, Gordana
VLASTISLAV HUFLER "CHANGES IN GEOGRAPHICAL DISTIBUTION OF POPULATION IN
CZECHOSLOVAKIA", PRAHA, 1966
235-238
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 3/1966
godina IV
Kjuriev, Aleksandar
MEUNARODNI DEMOGRAFSKI SIMPOZIJUM "PRIVREDA I DEMOGRAFIJA", LAJPCIG, 19-22.09.1966.
239-241
29
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
30
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 3/1966
godina IV
Breznik, Duan
EVROPSKA DEMOGRAF'SKA KONFERENCIJA STRASBURG, 30.08-6.09.1966.
241-244
***************************************************************************
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 4/1966
godina IV
Vogelnik, Dolfe
MAKRODEMOGRAFSKI ASPEKTI FORMIRANJA URBANIH REGIJA U JUGOSLAVIJI
MACRO-DEMOGRAPHIC ASPECTS OF THE FORMATIONS OF URBAN REGIONS IN YUGOSLAVIA
261-281
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 4/1966
godina IV
Markovi, Petar
PROMENE AGRARNE STRUKTURE KAO REZULTAT MIGRACIJA POLJOPRIVREDNOG STANOVNITVA
CHANGES IN THE AGRARIAN STRUCTURE RESULTING OF THE MIGRATION OF THE AGRICULTURAL
POPULATION
282-299
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 4/1966
godina IV
Gini, Ivanka
DEMOGRAFSKI ASPEKTI GRADSKOG RAZVOJA I STANOVANJA
300-305
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/komentar
broj 4/1966
godina IV
Vertlieimer-Baleti, Alica
NEKA OBILEJA STANOVNITVA SAD PREMA POLJOPRIVREDNOM I NEPOLJOPRIVREDNOM
PORIJEKLU
305-315
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
B
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BL
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EN
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AFFIIJJA
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ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/komentar
broj 4/1966
godina IV
Novkovi, edomil
O ODNOSU STANOVNITVA I PRIVREDE U INDONEZIJI
315-327
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1966
godina IV
Breznik, Duan
"WORLD POPULATION CONFERENCE, 1965", NEW YORK, 1966
328
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1966
godina IV
Rani, Miroljub
"DEMOGRAPHIC YEARBOOK 1965", NEW YORK, 1966.
328-329
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1966
godina IV
Kozlica, Olivera
UNICEF "L'ENFANT DANS LE TIERS-MONDE", PARIS, 1965
329-331
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1966
godina IV
Breznik, Duan
CARLO M. CIPOLLA "HISTORIE ECONOMIQUE DE LA POPULATION MONDIALE"
331-334
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1966
god IV
Kozlica, Olivera
L.TABAH, J.VIET "DEMOGRAPHIE TENDANCES ACTUELLES ET ORGANISATION DE LA RECHERCHE
1955-1965", BRUGES, 1966
334-335
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31
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ASSO
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/1967
godina V
Obradovi, Sava
PROBLEMI DEMOGRAFSKE TRANZICIJE U NERAZVIJENIM PODRUJIMA SVETA
PROBLEMS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN THE UNDERDEVELOPED REGIONS OF THE WORLD
5-13
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
postoji ima kratak francuski rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/1967
godinaV
Fajfer, Frantiek
DISKUSIONI PRILOG NA TEMU "SELO-GRAD"
A CONTRIBUTION TO THE DISCUSSION ON THE THEME "URBAN-RURAL"
14-20
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/1967
godinaV
Radovanovi, Milovan
GEOGRAFSKA SREDINA I STANOVNITVO
GEOGRAPHICAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE POPULATION
21-40
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/1967
godina V
Breznik, Duan
STERILITET PRVIH BRAKOVA
STERILITY AT FIRST MARRIAGES
41-50
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
32
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BL
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TV
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OD
DU
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
33
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1/1967
godina V
Todorovi, Gordana
PROBLEMI PROJECIRANJA STANOVNI'IVA
51-58
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1967
godina V
Senti, Milica
ILIJAS BONJOVI "PREOBRAAJ EKONOMSKE STRUKTURE RADNE SNAGE I STANOVNITVO BOSNE
I HERCEGOVINE", SARAJEVO, 1966.
59-63
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1967
godina V
Njegi, Radmila
IVANKA GINI "DINAMIKA I STRUKTURA GRADSKOG STANOVNITVA SFRJ", BEOGRAD, 1967.
62-64
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1967
godina V
Breznik, Duan
"BIOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF SOCIAL PROBLEMS", LONDON, 1965.
64-66
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/1967
godina V
Rani, Miroljub
"PROBLEMI DEMOGRAFSKE STATISTIKE, MOSKVA, 1966.
66-69
***************************************************************************
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/1967
godina V
Senti, Milica
NASTAVA DEMOGRAFIJE I STATISTIKE NA NAIM FAKULTETIMA
TEACHING DEMOGRAPHY AND STATISTICS AT OUR UNIVERSITES
81-86
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
B
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BL
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ASSO
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/1967
godina V
Gini, Ivanka
PROBLEM KONCENTRACIJE STANOVNITVA U BEOGRADU
PROBLEM OF THE CONCENTRATION OF POPULATION IN BELGRADE
87-94
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/1967
godina V
Breznik, Duan, Gordana Todorovi
PROBLEMI PROJEKCIJE STANOVNITVA VELIKIH GRADSKIH PODRUJA POSEBNO BEOGRADA
PROBLEM OF POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR LARGE URBAN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY FOR
BELGRADE
95-102
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/1967
godina V
Breznik, Duan
DEMOGRAFSKI RAZVITAK NARODNOSTI U SRBIJI
DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONALITIES IN SERBIA
103-124
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 2/1967
godina V
Rani, Miroljub
KONCEPCIJE I PROBLEMI RAZVOJA BEOGRADSKOG REGIONA
125-131
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 2/1967
godina V
Kozlica, Olivera
KONFERENCIJA O PROGRAMIMA PLANIRANJA PORODICE, ENEVA, 1965.
131-135
34
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ASSO
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 2/1967
godina V
Breznik, Duan
MEUREGIONALNI SEMINAR O PROBLEMIMA OBUAVANJA KADROVA NA PODRUJU
STANOVNITVA, DANSKA, 19-30.06.1967.
136-141
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/1967
godina V
Hadivukovi, S.
BRANISLAV IVANOVI "TEORIJSKA STATISTIKA", BEOGRAD, 1966.
142-143
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/1967
godina V
Senti, Milica
ANDR BELTRAMONE "LA MOBILIT GOGRAPHIQUE D'UNE POPULATION", PARIS, 1966
143-145
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/1967
godina V
Kozlica, Olivera
"BIBLIOGRAFIA DELLE OPERE DEMOGRAFICHE IN LINGUA ITALIANA, 1930-1961., ROMA, 1966
145-146
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/1967
godina V
Todorovi, Gordana
J. MAYONE STYKOS, K.W.BACK "THE CONTROL OF HUMAN FERTILITY IN JAMICA" USA, 1964
146-147
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3/1967
godina V
Kosti, Darinka
AGRARNA REFORMA I PROMENE U IVOTU POSLERATNIH KOLONISTA U SAP VOJVODINl
AGRARIAN REFORM AND CHANGES IN THE LIFE OF POST-WAR COLONOSTS IN VOJVODINA
161-179
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
fransuski rezime
35
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
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VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3/1967
godina V
Gini, Ivanka
NEKE DEMOGRAFSKE KARAKTERISTIKE URBANIZACIJE U JUGOSLAVIJI
SOME DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF URBANIZATION IN YUGOSLAVIA
180-185
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
fransuski rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3/1967
godinaV
Gri, Gojko
DEMOGRAFIJA KAO PREDMET NASTAVE
DEMOGRAPHY AS A SUBJECT OF TEACHING
186-190
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3/1967
godina V
Novak, Franc
PROBLEMI ABORTUSA U EVROPI
PROBLEMS OF ABORTION IN EUROPE
191-198
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
postoji vrlo kratak engleski rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3/1967
godina V
Szabady, Egon
TABLICE FERTILITETA ZA NEKE ISTONO-EVROPSKE SOCIJALISTIKE ZEMLJE
BASIC TABLES OF FERTILITY FOR SOME EAST-EUROPEAN SOCIALIST COUNTRIES
199-213
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
36
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AFFIIJJA
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AD
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VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
37
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3/1967
godina V
Srdi, Ljubica
EKONOMSKA AKTIVNOST I KVALIFIKACIONA STRUKTURA ENSKOG STANOVNITVA NORVEKE U
SVETLU POPISA 1950. I 1960.
214-220
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3/1967
godina V
Senti, Milica
STUDIJE, ANALIZE I PRIKAZI SVESKE 32,33,36
220-224
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3/1967
godina V
Todorovi, Gordana
"POLSKIE TABLICE WYMIERALNOSCI 1963-1965 WEDLUG WOJEWODZTW", WARSZAVA, 1967
225-228
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3/1967
godina V
Kozlica, Olivera
JOS HERNNDEZ ALVAREZ "RETURN MIGRATION TO PUERTO RICO", USA, 1967
228-230
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3/1967
godina V
Rani, Miroljub
D.I. VALENTEJ "TEORIJA I POLITIKA STANOVNITVA", MOSKVA, 1967
230-233
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3/1967
godina V
Wertheimer-Baleti, Alica
"PROBLEMI SVJETSKOG STANOVNITVA", USA, 1967.
233-236
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ASSO
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U PPE
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38
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 4/1967
godina V
Macura, Milo
DUGORONE PERSPEKTIVE STANOVNITVA: REZIME SADANJIH OCENA
LONG-TERM PROSPECT OF THE POPULATION: A SUMMARY OF THE PRESENT ESTIMATES
253-275
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 4/1967
godina V
Klauzer,Ivan
NEKE MISLI O NASTAVI DEMOGRAFIJE
SOME THOUGHTS ON THE TEACHING OF DEMOGRAPHY
276-283
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 4/1967
godina V
Panov, Mitko
DEMOGRAFSKI ASPEKTI PROUAVANJA MIGRACIJA NA PRIMERU TITOVELEKE KOMUNE
DEMOGRAPCIC ASPECTS IN STYDING MIGRATIONS BASED UPON THE EXAMPLE OF THE COMUNE OF
TITOV VELES
284-292
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 4/1967
godina V
Markovi, Petar
KARAKTERISTIKE STANOVNITVA I POLJOPRIVREDNIH DOMAINSTAVA MEDITERANSKOG
PODRUJA JUGOSLAVIJE
THE CHARACTERISTICS OF POPULATION AND AGRICULTURAL HOUSEHOLDS IN THE
MEDITERRANEAN AREA OF YUGOSLAVIA
305-319
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
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U 11996633--22001122..
39
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 4/1967
godina V
Gini, Ivanka
DEMOGRAFSKI PROBLEMI POLJSKOG STANOVNITVA (SIMPOZIJUM U VARAVI, 5-7.10.1967.)
320-323
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 4/1967
godina V
Breznik, Duan
XIV SEDNICA POPULACIONE KOMISIJE OUN, ENEVA, 30.10-10.11.1967.
323-329
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1967
godina V
Senti, Milica
"DEMOGRAFSKI I EKONOMSKI ASPEKTI PROSTORNE POKRETLJIVOSTI STANOVNISTVA", BEOGRAD,
1968.
330-336
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1967
godina V
Kozlica, Olivera
"ANNALES DE DEMOGRAPHIE HISTORIQUE 1966", PARIS, 1967
336-337
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 4/1967
godina V
Boli, Silvano
"FERT1LITY, FAMILY PLANING, MORTALITY", NEW YORK, 1967
338-341
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 4/1967
godina V
Kozlica, Olivera
SASTANAK MEUNARODNE UNIJE ZA NAUNO IZUAVANJE STANOVNITVA, SIDNEY, 21-25.08.1967.
343-345
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1968
godina VI
Klauzer, Jagoda
JEDAN ASPEKT OCENJIVANJA POTREBE ZA POPULACIONOM POLITIKOM U JUGOSLAVIJI
AN ASPECT OF ASSESSING THE NEED FOR A POPULATION POLICY IN YUGOSLAVIA
5-35
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1968
godina VI
Breznik, Duan, Gordana Todorovi
PROJEKCIJE STANOVNISTVA JUGOSLAVIJE PO REPUBLIKAMA 1965-1986.
POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR YUGOSLAVIA BY REPUBLICS. 1965-1986
36-73
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1968
godinaVI
Pirc, Bojan
OSMA REVIZIJA MEUNARODNE KLASIFIKACIJE BOLESTI I STANJA
THE EIGHT REVISION OF THE INTERNATIONAL CLASSIFICATION OF DISEASES
74-82
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1968
Vojtko, Danijel
RAZVOJNE TENDENCIJE U KONCENTRACIJI STANOVNITVA
DEVELOPMENTAL TENDENCIES IN THE CONCENTRATION OF POPULATION
83-89
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-2/1968
godina VI
Senti, Milica
SAVETOVANJE O PROBLEMIMA ZAPOSLENOSTI, VRNJAKA BANJA, 25-26.03.1968.
90-95
40
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asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-2/1968
godina VI
Plavec, Anelija
TABLICE MORTALITETA U JUGOSLAVIJl PO REPUBLIKAMA, 1960-1962.
95-109
postoji ima krai francuski rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1968
godina VI
Senti, Milica
ANELIJA PLAVEC "SMRTNOST STANOVNITVA U JUGOSLAVIJI 1950-1964", BEOGRAD, 1968.
110-113
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1968
godina VI
SIMON KUZNETS "ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STRUCTURE", NEW YORK, 1965
113-116
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1968
godina VI
Senti, Milica
ANDRE ARMENGAUD "DEMOGRAPHIE ET SOCIETES", PARIS, 1966
116-120
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1968
godina VI
Kozlica, Olivera
"WYNIKI BADAN NAD PLODNOCIA KOBIET W POLSCE", WARSZAVA, 1967.
121
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1968
godina VI
Kozlica, Olivera
"PRZESLO DEMOGRAFICZNA POLSKI", WARSZAVA, 1967.
121-122
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1968
godina VI
Todorovi, Gordana
"MAGYARORSZAG NPESSGNEK LRESZMITSA (1966-2001)", BUDAPEST,1968
123
41
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42
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 1-2/1968
godina VI
Bogdani, Ivo
SASTANAK SAVEZNE KOMISIJE ZA VITALNU I ZDRAVSTVENU STATISTIKU
124-126
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 1-2/1968
godina VI
Vojtko, Danijel
OSNIVANJE SLOVENAKOG DEMOGRAFSKOG DRUTVA
126-127
***************************************************************************
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1968
godina VI
Breznik, Duan, Milica Senti
DEMOGRAFSKE KARAKTERISTIKE ETNIKIH RELIGIOZNIH I RASNIH GRUPA
DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF ETHNIC, RELIGIOUS AND RACIAL GROUPS
141-183
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1968
godina VI
Senti, Milica, Duan Breznik, Iva Trandafilovi
DEMOGRAFSKA PROBLEMATIKA PENZIJSKOG SISTEMA (REZIME STUDIJE CENTRA ZA
DEMOGRAFSKA ISTRAIVANJA IDN)
DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS OF THE PENSION SYSTEM (SUMMARY OF THE STUDY OF DEMOGRAPHIC
RESEARCH CENTRE ISS)
184-195
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1968
godina VI
Grebo, Zlata
PROBLEMI NASTAVE DEMOGRAFIJE
THE PROBLEMS OF TEACHING DEMOGRAPHY
196-200
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
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43
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1968
godina VI
Todorovi, Gordana
BUDUE PROMENE U STAROSNOJ I POLNOJ STRUKTURI STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE (SA
POSEBNIM OSVRTOM NA KONTINGENT ENSKOG FERTILNOG STANOVNITVA) PREMA
PROGNOZAMA ZA RAZDOBLJE 1965-1986.
FUTURE CHANGES IN THE AGE AND SEX STRUCTURES OF THE POPULATION OF YUGOSLAVIA (WITH
SPECIAL CONSIDERATION OF THE PROPOSITION OF FERTILE FEMALE POPULATION) ACCORDING TO
THE PROGNOSIS FOR THE 1965-1986 PERIOD
201-215
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1968
godina VI
Plavec, Anelija
BRANI FERTILITET U JUGOSLAVIJI
MARITAL FERTILITY IN YUGOSLAVIJA
216-226
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1968
godina VI
Stojkov, Nevena
MORTALITET DECE OD 1-4 GODINE STAROSTI KAO POKAZATELJ SOCIO-EKONOMSKOG STANJA
MORTALITY OF CHILDREN FROM 1-4 YEARS AS AN INDICATOR OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
227-233
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1968
godina VI
Todorovi, Aleksandar
URBANA SREDINA I MALOLETNIKO PRESTUPNITVO U BEOGRADU
URBAN ENVIROMENT AND JUVENILE DELIQUENCY
234-241
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
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U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1968
godinaVI
Raevi, Miroslav
DEMOGRAFSKI PREGLED
242-257
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1968
godina VI
Todorovi, Gordana
MEUNARODNI SIMPOZIJUM O PROBLEMIMA REPRODUKCIJE STANOVNITVA,
VARNA, 25-30.09.1968.
258-264
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1968
godina VI
Rani, Miroljub
"CVIJIEV ZBORNIK", U SPOMEN 100-GODINJICE NJEGOVOG ROENJA, BEOGRAD, 1968.
265-266
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1968
godina VI
Bogdani, Ivo
DEMOGRAFSKA STATISTIKA, BEOGRAD 1966.
267-268
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1968
godina VI
Breznik, Duan
"LE CONCEPT DE LA POPUI.ATION STABLE", NEW YORK, 1966
268-275
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1968
godina VI
Breznik, Duan
GILBERT BLOCH, MICHAEL PRADERIE "LA POPULATION ACTIVE DANS LES PAYS DEVELOPPE",
PARIS, 1966
275-279
44
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1968
godina VI
Rani, Miroljub
GRUPA AUTORA "KURS DEMOGRAFIJE", MOSKVA, 1967
279-281
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1968
godina VI
Kozlica, Olivera
"NAUKI EKONOMICZNE", LODZ, 1968.
281-282
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1968
godina VI
Kozlica, Olivera
GIORGIO MORTARA "CURRICULUM VITAE", ROMA, 1968.
282
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1968
godina VI
Kozlica, Olivera
"HUNGARIAN HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY AFTER WORLD WAR II", BUDAPEST,
1968
282-283
***************************************************************************
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1969
godina VII
Anii, Zaga
PRIPREME ZA POPIS STANOVNITVA I STANOVA 1971. GODINE
PREPARATIONS FOR THE POPULATION AND LODGINGS CENSUS 1971
5-14
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
45
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46
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1969
godinaVII
Cari, Neboja
SAVREMENA GEOGRAFIJA STANOVNITVA PRAVCI RAZVITKA U SVETU
CONTEMPORARY GEOGRAPHY OF POPULATION DIRECTIONS OF ITS DEVELOPMENT IN THE WORLD
15-43
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1969
godina VII
Wetheimer-Baleti, Alica
EKONOMSKI UVJETI SMANJIVANJA POLJOPRIVREDNOG STANOVITVA U TOKU PRIVREDNOG
RAZVOJA
ECONOMIC CAUSES OF THE DECREASING NUMBER OF THE AGRICULTURAL POPULATION IN
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
44-57
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1969
godina VII
Gini, Ivanka
TENDENCIJE U DOSADANJEM DEMOGRAFSKOM RAZVITKU BEOGRADA I PERSPEKTIVE ZA BUDUI
PERIOD (REZIME STUDIJE CDI IDN)
TRENDS IN THE EXISTING DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF BELGRADE AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
58-72
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
krai engleski rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1969
godina VII
Gjorgov, Ane
UTICAJ GRIPA NA SMRTNOST ODOJADI U JUGOSLAVIJI
EFECTS OF INFLUENZA ON INFANT MORTALITY TRENDS IN YUGOSLAVIA
73-90
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
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ASSO
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-2/1969
godina VII
Obradovi, Sreten
SAVETOVANJE "LJUDSKI FAKTOR U SOCIJALISTIKOJ ROBNOJ PRIVREDI SAMOUPRAVNOG
DRUTVA I PROBLEMI ZAPOLJAVANJA", BEOGRAD, 11-13.02.1969.
91-96
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-2/1969
godina VII
Rani, Miroljub, Duan oi
PROBLEMI SAVREMENOG SELA U JUGOSLAVIJI, SAVETOVANJE "STRUKTURE, GLAVNI PROCESI I
NJIHOVE SOCIJALNE POSLEDICE, ZLATIBOR, 14-15.05.1969.
97-106
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1969
godina VII
Senti, Milica, Olivera Kozlica
M. REINHARD, A. ARMENGAUD, J. DUPAQUIER "HISTOIRE GENERALE DE LA POPULATION
MONDIALE", PARIS, 1968
107-111
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1969
godina VII
Gini, Ivanka
F.CARRIERE, PH. PINCHEMEL "LE FAIT URBAIN EN FRANCE", PARIS, 1963
111-118
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1969
godina VII
oi, Duan
P. BAIROCH "THE WORKING POPULATION AND ITS STRUCTURE", BRUXELLES, 1968
118-119
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1969
godina VII
oi, Duan
JOHN I. CLARKE "POPULATION GEOGRAPHY", OXFORD, 1968
119-120
47
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48
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1969
godina VII
Stojkov, Nevena
VICTOR KUSICK "HUMANA GENETIKA", BEOGRAD, 1968.
121
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1969
godina VII
Kozlica, Olivera
121-123
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 1-2/1969
godina VII
oi, Duan
POPULACIONI PROBLEMI INDIJE
124-125
asopis Stanovnitvo
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 1-2/1969
godina VII
Kozlica, Olivera
REJONSKE KARAKTERISTIKE REPRODUKCIJE STANOVNITVA SSSR-a, SIMPOZIJUM U EBOKSARIMA,
20-24.05.1968.
125-126
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 1-2/1969
godina VII
Raevi, Miroslav
DVA SASTANKA EKONOMSKE KOMISIJE UN ZA AFRIKU
126-127
***************************************************************************
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1969
godinaVII
Breznik, Duan
DEMOGRAFSKA ISTRAIVANJA U JUGOSLAVIJI I U SVETU
DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCHES IN YUGOSLAVIA AND THE WORLD
149-162
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1969
godina VII
Senti, Milica
NEKA RAZMATRANJA O IZUAVANJU PORODICA I DOMAINSTAVA U JUGOSLAVIJI
SOME CONSIDERATIONS ON RESEARCHING INTO THE FAMILY AND HOUSEHOLD IN YUGOSLAVIA
163-171
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1969
godina VII
Anii, Zagorka
NEKI POKAZATELJI SKORANJEG FERTILITETA STANOVNISTVA JUGOSLAVIJE
SOME INDICATORS OF RECENT TRENDS IN THE FERTILITY OF YUGOSLAV POPULATION
172-184
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1969
godinaVII
oi, Duan
DEMOGRAFSKE STRUKTURE KAO OSNOVI ZA PROUAVANJE DRUTVENIH STRUKTURA
DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURES AS A BASIS FOR SOCIAL STRUCTURES RESEARCH
185-194
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1969
godina VII
Sokolov, Lazar
VEZA IZMEU MIGRACIJA I VRSTE NASELJENIH MESTA U MAKEDONIJI
RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN MIGRATION AND THE SORTS OF SETTLEMENTS IN MACEDONIA
195-208
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
49
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1969
godina VII
Petri, Nevenka
PLANIRANJE PORODICE U JUGOSLAVIJI
THE FAMILY PLANNING IN YUGOSLAVIA
209-218
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
postoji krai ruski rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1969
godinaVII
Breznik, Duan, Miroslav Raevi
KORIENJE DEMOGRAFSKIH PODATAKA I STUDIJA ZA IZRADU PLANOVA EKONOMSKOG I
SOCIJALNOG RAZVOJA
THE USE OF DEMOGRAPHIC DATA AND STUDIES IN THE ELABORATION OF THE ECONOMIC AND
SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN
219-226
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/komentar
broj 3-4/1969
godinaVII
Todorovi, Gordana
TREA MEUNARODNA KONFERENCIJA "NAUKA I DRUTVO" PREDVIANJE BUDUNOSTI,
HERCEG NOVI, 28.6. do 4.7.1969.
227-231
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/komentar
broj 3-4/1969
godinaVII
oi, Duan
JUGOSLOVENSKI PROSTOR I GRADOVI 2000. GODINE, MOSTAR, 16-17.9.1969.
231-234
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1969
godinaVII
Gini, Ivanka
UNITED NATIONS GROWTH OF THE WORLD'S URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION 1920-2000, UN,
POPULATION STUDIES NO.44, NEW YORK, 1969.
234-239
50
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51
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prikaz
broj 3-4/1969
godinaVII
Rani, Miroljub
SINADINOVSKI J., S. IVANOVSKI I M. PANOV "TITOVELEKA SELA SOCIO-EKONOMSKA
ISPITIVANJA"
239-242
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1969
godinaVII
Rani, Miroljub
DRAEN TAMBUK "STANOVNITVO, KNJ. 4", IZ STUDIJE "MOGUNOSTI PRIVREDNO-DRUTVENOG
RAZVITKA DALMATINSKIH OTOKA, EKONOMSKI INSTITUT, SPLIT, 1969.
242
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1969
godinaVII
oi, Duan
VLADIMIR SRB "UVOD DO DEMOGRAFIJE", NAHLADETELSTVI POLITICH LITERATURY
242-245
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1970
godina VIII
Kraovec, Stane
STIHIJNOST I KONTROLA KRETANJA STANOVNITVA PROBLEM SAVREMENE NAPREDNE
POPULACIONE POLITIKE
UNCONTROLLED OR CONTROLLED MOVEMENT OF THE POPULATION PROBLEM OF
CONTEMPORARY POPULATION POLICY
5-50
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1970
godina VIII
Gini, Ivanka
LENJINOVA RAZMATRANJA O PORASTU NEPOLJOPRIVREDNOG STANOVNITVA
LENIN'S VIEWS ABOUT NON-AGRICULTURAL POPULATION GROWTH
51-58
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
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52
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1970
godinaVIII
Radovanovi, Milovan
RAZVOJ EGZAKTNE GEOGRAFIJE STANOVNITVA U SKLOPU KONCEPTA TEORIJSKE (MATEMATIKE)
GEOGRAFIJE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF EXACT POPULATION GEOGRAPHY WITHIN THE CONCEPT OF THEORETICAL
(MATHEMATICAL) GEOGRAPHY
59-69
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1970
godina VIII
Tasi, Dragoljub
O PENZIJSKOM STAU MUKARCA I ENE
MEN AND WOMEN ON PENSION
70-83
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1970
godina VIII
Bojana Bari
ZNAENJE INFORMACIJA O KORIENJU METODA KONTRACEPCIJE I STAV ENA NAINU
INFORMISANJA
THE SIGNIFICANSE ABOUT THE INFORMATION ABOUT THE USE OF CONTRACEPTIVES AND WOMEN'S
VIEWS OF THE METHODS OF PROVIDING INFORMATION
84-96
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1970
godinaVIII
Klauzer, Jagoda
PRIMJENA MODIFICIRANE EKSPONENCIJALNE KRIVULJE U PROUAVANJU FERTILITETA PREMA
REDU ROENJA DETETA
THE APLICATION OF A MODIFIED EXPONENTIAL CURVE IN EXPLORING FERTILITY ACCORDING TO
BIRTH ORDER
97-106
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
B
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U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-2/1970
godina VIII
Anelija Plavec
"PROMENE U STOPAMA REPRODUKCIJE 1950-1967."
107-111
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1970
godina VIII
Senti, Milica
NEVENA STOJKOV "KRETANJE MORTALITETA OD TUBERKULOZE U JUGOSLAVIJI OD 1951. DO 1966.
GODINE, STUDIJE, ANALIZE, PRIKAZI", BEOGRAD, 1969.
111-114
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1970
godina VIII
ZVONIMIR KOMARICA "JUGOSLAVIJA U SAVREMENIM EVROPSKIM MIGRACIJAMA", ZAGREB, 1970.
114-117
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-2/1970
godina VIII
Senti, Milica
IVO VINSKI "KLASNA PODELA STANOVNITVA I NACIONALNOG DOHOTKA JUGOSLAVIJE U 1938.
GODINI", ZAGREB, 1970.
117-124
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1970
godina VIII
Gelo, Jakov
B. PIRC, D. O. MILAT "OSNOVE ISTRAIVANJA U ZDRAVSTVU", ZAGREB, 1970.
124-127
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-2/1970
godina VIII
Lah, Ivo
WILHELM WINKLER "DEMOMETRIE", BERLIN, 1969
128-131
53
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1970
godina VIII
Kozlica, Olivera
132-135
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 1-2/1970
godina VIII
Kozlica, Olivera
"POPULATION NEWSLETTER", NEW YORK, 1969
136-137
***************************************************************************
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1970
godina VIII
Raevi, Miroslav
RAZMATRANJA O EVALUACIJI KONTROLE RAANJA KAO VARIJABLE FERTILITETA STANOVNITVA
CONSIDERATIONS ABOUT THE EVALUATIONS OF BIRTH CONTROL AS A VARIABLE OF POPULATION
FERTILITY
159-166
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1970
godina VIII
Ili, Jovan
KARAKTERISTIKE FUNKCIONALNIH ODNOSA IZMEU GRADA I OKOLINE SA POSEBNIM OSVRTOM
NA SR SRBIJU
THE FUNCTIONAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TOWN AND VICINITY WITH PARTICULAR ATTENTION
PAID TO THE SR OF SERBIA
167-189
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1970
godina VIII
Beri, Berislav, M. Stevanov
EPIDEMIOLOKO-PRAVNI ASPEKTI PROBLEMA POBAAJA U JUGOSLAVIJI
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL-LEGAL ASPECTS OF THE PROBLEM OF ABORTION IN YUGOSLAVIA
190-199
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1970
godina VIII
Vogelnik, Dolfe
PROBLEMI PROJEKCIJE STANOVNITVA I RADNE SNAGE ZA MALA PODRUJA I GRADOVE
THE PROBLEMS OF POPULATION AND LABOUR FORCE PROJECTION FOR SMALLER REGIONS AND
TOWNS
200-217
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1970
godina VIII
oi, Duan
RAZVOJ STANOVNITVA PANEVA I NJEGOVA PERSPEKTIVA
PRESENT DEVELOPMENT OF THE PANEVO POPULATION AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS
218-234
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1970
godina VIII
Grei, Vladimir
SAVREMENI MIGRACIONI TOKOVI EVROPSKE RADNE SNAGE
CONTEMPORARY MIGRATION FLOWS AO THE EUROPEAN LABOUR FORCE
235-246
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1970
godina VIII
Srdi-akovi, Ljubica
SAVETOVANJE "STANOVNITVO, EMIGRACIJA I ZAPOSLENOST U SR HRVATSKOJ", ZAGREB, 1971
247-255
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1970
godina VIII
Gjorgov, Ane
NEKI SOCIJALNO-MEDICINSKI ASPEKTI SMRTNOSTI ODOJADI U SKOPLJU
255-260
55
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asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1970
godina VIII
Sparavalo, Joko
OSNOVNE KARAKTERISTIKE RAZVOJA STANOVNITVA PLANINSKOG REJONA BOSNE I
HERCEGOVINE
261-271
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1970
godina VIII
Senti, Milica
ILIJAS BONJOVI "TERCIJARNE DJELATNOSTI NA NEDOVOLJNO RAZVIJENOM PODRUJU",
SARAJEVO, 1970.
272-274
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1970
godina VIII
Breznik, Duan
STANE KRAOVEC "LOVETVO, KRUH IN LAKOTA", LJUBLJANA, 1970.
274-280
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1970
godina VIII
Senti, Milica
MLADEN FRIGANOVI "SOCIJALNA GEOGRAFIJA I STANOVINITVO SVETA", ZAGREB, 1968.
280-283
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1970
godina VIII
Srdi-akovi, Ljubica
VERA PILI "KARAKTERISTIKE I PROBLEMI ENSKE RADNE SNAGE U SFRJ", BEOGRAD, 1969.
283-287
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1970
godina VIII
Raevi, Miroslav
"FAMILY PLANNING IN HUNGARY", BUDIMPETA, 1970.
287-290
56
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prikaz
broj 3-4/1970
godina VIII
Ristanovi, Zora
LAGROUA WEILL-HALL "LA CONTRACEPTION ET LES FRANAIS", PARIS, 1967
290-292
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1970
godina VIII
Kozlica, Olivera
JACQUELINE BEAUJEU-GARNIER "LA POPULATION FRANAISE", PARIS, 1969
292-293
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1970
godina VIII
Kozlica, Olivera
"DEMOSTA BULLETIN PRO DEMOGRAFII A STATISTIKU", PRAG, 1970
293-295
***************************************************************************
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
Senti, Milica
NAI GRAANI NA PRIVREMENOM RADU U INOSTRANSTVU
OUR CITIZENS AT WORK ABROAD
7-24
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
Gini, Ivanka
DINAMIKA GRADSKOG STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE PREMA PRVIM REZULTATIMA POPISA OD 1971.
GODINE
DYNAMICS OF THE URBAN POPULATION OF YUGOSLAVIA ACCORDING TO THE FIRST RESULTS OF
THE 1971 POPULATION CENSUS
25-41
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
B
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BL
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OBBJJA
AV
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EN
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TV
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
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HU
ASSO
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
Todorovi, Gordana
SLAGANJE PROGNOZA STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE 1965-1986. GODINE SA PRVIM I PRETHODNIM
REZULTATIMA POPISA STANOVNITVA 1971.GODINE
THE CONCORDANCE OF THE PROGNOSES ON YUGOSLAV POPULATION FOR 1965-1986 PERIOD WITH
THE FIRST AND PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF THE 1971 POPULATION CENSUS
42-47
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
Mulina, Tripo
MESTO I ULOGA LJUDSKOG FAKTORA U DUGORONOM RAZVOJU PRIVREDE SR SRBIJE
PLACE AND ROLE OF THE HUMAN FACTOR IN THE LONG-TERM DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECONOMY
OF THE SR OF SERBIA
48-56
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
Vukmanovi, edomir
KVALITET STATISTIKIH PODATAKA O VITALNIM DOGAAJIMA
THE QUALITY OF STATISTICS ON VITAL EVENTS
57-74
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
Lah, Ivo
ANALITIKO IZRAVNAVANJE SA GRANINIM USLOVIMA
ANALITICAL EQUATION WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS
75-93
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
58
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59
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
Muhsam, V. H
TRAGEDIJA KOMUNICA I SVETSKA GODINA STANOVNITVA
THE TRAGEDY OF COMMONS AND WORLD POPULATION YEAR
94-100
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
tampar, Dubravka
REPUBLIKO SAVETOVANJE O PLANIRANJU OBITELJI, ZAGREB, 17-18.05.1971.
101-102
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
Gini, Ivanka
DESETI JUBILARNI NAUNI SKUP ANTROPOLOKOG DRUTVA JUGOSLAVIJE, VALJEVO, 2831.05.1971.
105-107
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
oi, Duan
PETI STRUNI SASTANAK JUGOSLOVENSKOG UDRUENJA ZA SOCIOLOGIJU, DUBROVNIK, 1113.02.1971.
107-109
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
Todorovi, Gordana
SASTANAK O DEMOGRAFSKIM PROJEKCIJAMA KONFERENCIJE EVROPSKIH STATISTIARA, ENEVA,
15-19.03.1971.
109-113
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asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
Breznik, Duan
SASTANAK GRUPE EKSPERATA OUN O PLANIRANJU PORODICE I SOCIJALNOJ POLITICI, KARLOVY
VARY I PRAG, 5-13.10.1970.
114-117
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
Raevi, Miroslav
SEMINAR O POPULACIONIM PROBLEMIMA I POLITICI NIGERIJE, NIGERIJA, 22-27.03.1971.
117-120
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
Senti, Milica
PRETHODNI REZULTATI POPISA STANOVNITVA I STANOVA, 31.03.1971.
121-123
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
Senti, Milica
MIROSLAV RAEVI "DETERMINANTE FERTILITETA STANOVNITVA SFRJ", BEOGRAD, 1971.
123-126
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
Raevi, Miroslav
ALICA WERTHEIMER-BALETI "STANOVNITVO SR HRVATSKE", ZAGREB, 1971.
126-129
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
Senti, Milica
M. BAN "NASELJA U JUGOSLAVIJI I NJIHOV RAZVOJ U PERIODU 1948-1961", BEOGRAD, 1970.
129-131
60
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DU
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AFFIIJJA
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ASSO
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U 11996633--22001122..
61
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
oi, Duan
SAVEZNI ZAVOD ZA STATISTIKU "FERTILITET ENSKOG STANOVNITVA", BEOGRAD, 1971.
131
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
Kartalov, Risto
PETAR MARKOVI "OPTESTVENO-EKONOMSKITE PROMENI NA SELO VO SR MAKEDONIJA", SKOPJE,
1971.
131-134
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
oi, Duan
D.I. VALENTEJ (ur.) "MARKSISTIKO-LENJINISTIKA TEORIJA STANOVNITVA", MOSKVA, 1971.
134-137
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
Raevi, Miroslav
P.C. MATTHIESSEN "SOME ASPECTS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN DEN MARK",
COPENHAGEN, 1970
137-139
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
Kozlica, Olivera
"ENQUETES DE FECONDITE ET DE PLANNING FAMILIALE", NEW YORK, 1971.
139-141
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
Kozlica, Olivera
JAROSLAV PODZIMEK "BIBLIOGRAFIE ESKOSLOVENSKE STATISTIKY A DEMOGRAFIE",
BRATISLAVA, 1971.
141
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1971
godina IX
Kozlica, Olivera
"POPULATION NEWSLETTER", NEW YORK, 1971
141-143
***************************************************************************
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1971
godina IX
Breznik, Duan
ANKETA O FERTILITETU UDATIH ENA I PLANIRANJE PORODICE
SURVEY OF FERTILITY OF MARRIED WOMEN AND FAMILY PLANNING
169-205
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
podui engleski rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1971
godina IX
Gini, Ivanka
FERTILITET I KONTROLA RAANJA U ODNOSU NA STAROST UDATIH ENA
FERTILITY AND BIRTH CONTROL BY AGE OF MARRIED WOMEN
206-222
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
engleskii rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1971
godina IX
Rani, Miroljub
FERTILITET I KONTROLA RAANJA U ODNOSU NA TRAJANJE BRAKA
FERTILITY AND BIRTH CONTROL BY DURATION OF MARRIAGE
223-236
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1971
godina IX
Lalovi, Miroslav
FERTILITET UDATlH ENA STARIH OD 15 DO 49 GODINA I KONTROLA RAANJA
BIRTH CONTROL AND FAMILY PLANNING BY FERTILITY OF MARRIED WOMEN
237-253
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
62
B
BIIB
BL
LIIO
OG
RA
DO
OV
AO
OBBJJA
AV
LJJE
EN
NIIIH
U
A
OPPIISSU
U
NO
NIIT
TV
VO
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DU
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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OV
VN
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1971
godina IX
Raevi, Miroslav
UTICAJ OBRAZOVANJA NA FERTILITET I KONTROLU RAANJA
INFLUENCE OF EDUCATION ON POPULATION FERTILITY AND BIRTH CONTROL
254-265
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1971
godina IX
oi, Duan
FERTILITET, KONTROLA RAANJA I PROFESIONALNE KARAKTERISTIKE STANOVNITVA
FERTILITY, BIRTH CONTROL AND OCCUPATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE POPULATION
266-277
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1971
godina IX
Senti, Milica
UTICAJ NARODNOSTI I RELIGIJE NA FERTILITET STANOVNITVA SFRJ
INFLUENCE OF NATIONALITY AND RELIGION ON FERTILITY OF YUGOSLAV POPULATION
278-296
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1971
godina IX
Todorovi, Gordana
IDEALNI I ELJENI BROJ DECE U PORODICI
IDEAL AND DEZIRED FAMILY SIZE
297-311
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
engleski i rezime
63
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EN
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AD
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VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1971
godina IX
Raevi, Miroslav
FEKONDITET BRANIH PAROVA U JUGOSLAVIJI
FECUNDITY OF MARRIED COUPLES IN YUGOSLAVIA
312-325
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1971
godina IX
Breznik, Duan
RAZMACI IZMEU POROAJA
BIRTH INTERVALS
326-337
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
***************************************************************************
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1972
godina X
Breznik, Duan, Miroslav Raevi
RAZMATRANJE O POPULACIONOJ POLITICI JUGOSLAVIJE
CONSIDERATION ON THE POPULATION POLICY IN YUGOSLAVIA
5-13
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1972
godina X
Gini, Ivanka
KONCENTRACIJA STANOVNITVA U GRADOVIMA JUGOSLAVIJE
CONTRACXEPTION AMONG URBAN POPULATION IN YUGOSLAVIA
14-29
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
64
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BIIB
BL
LIIO
OG
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DO
OV
AO
OBBJJA
AV
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EN
NIIIH
U
A
OPPIISSU
U
NO
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TV
VO
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OD
DU
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
65
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1972
godina X
uri, Vladimir
EKONOMSKO-GEOGRAFSKI ASPEKTI DRUTVA I NJIHOV UTICAJ NA REDISTRIBUCIJU AKTIVNOG
STANOVNITVA PO DELATNOSTIMA
ECONOMIC-GEOGRAPHIC FACTORS OF THE SOCIETY AND THE IMPACT THEY EXERT ON THE
REDISTRIBUTION OF ACTIVE POPULATION, BY ACTIVITIES
30-43
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1972
godina X
Vogelnik, Dolfe
PONAANJE JUGOSLOVENSKIH PORODICA U ODNOSU NA ROENJE PRVOG DETETA
YUGOSLAV FAMILIES BEHAVIOUR IN CONNECTION WITH THE BIRTH OF THE FIRST CHILD
44-50
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1972
godina X
Baki, Radovan
NEKA MIGRACIONA OBELEJA STANOVNITVA GRADSKIH NASELJA SAP KOSOVA
SOME MIGRATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF URBAN SETTLEMENTS IN KOSOVO
51-63
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1972
godina X
Stefanovi, Jordan
MIGRACIJE I NJIHOV UTICAJ NA PORAST I STRUKTURU GRADSKOG STANOVNITVA BEOGRADA
MIGRATIONS AND THE IMPACT THEY EXERT ON THE INCREASE AND STRUCTURE OF THE BELGRADE
POPULATION
64-83
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
B
BIIB
BL
LIIO
OG
RA
DO
OV
AO
OBBJJA
AV
LJJE
EN
NIIIH
U
A
OPPIISSU
U
NO
NIIT
TV
VO
ERRIIO
OD
DU
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
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VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
AN
OV
VN
O"" U
U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1972
godina X
tampar, Dubravka
KRETANJE BROJA POBAAJA U SR HRVATSKOJ I POUZDANOST PODATAKA O NJIHOVOJ
UESTALOSTI
MOVEMENT OF THE NUMBER OF ABORTIONS IN CROATIA AND THE RELIABILITY OF DATA ON THE
FREQUENCY OF ABORTIONS
84-91
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
kratak engleski i rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1972
godina X
Taeuber, Irena, Conrad Taeuber
NAROD SJEDINJENIH DRAVA AMERIKE U XX VEKU
THE PEOPLE OF THE UNITED STATES IN THE XXth CENTURY
92-106
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1972
godina X
Kawalec, Wincent
STANOVNITVO U POLJSKOJ
POPULATION OF POLAND
107-114
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-2/1972
godina X
Rani, Miroljub
PROBLEMI USMERAVANJA MIGRACIJA RADNE SNAGE (SAVETOVANJE "POTREBE I MOGUNOSTI
ZAPOLJAVANJA RADNE SNAGE IZ NERAZVIJENIH I RAZVIJENIH PODRUJA ZEMLJE", PRITINA,
1972)
115-119
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-2/1972
godina X
oi, Duan
DRUTVENI KONFLIKTI I SOCIJALISTIKI RAZVOJ JUGOSLAVIJE, PORTORO, 10-13.02.1972.
120-121
66
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
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VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1972
godina X
Senti, Milica
LOUIS HENRY "DEMOGRAPHIE, ANALYSE ET MODELES", PARIS, 1972
122-123
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1972
godina X
Senti, Milica
DUAN BREZNIK "DEMOGRAFSKI METODI I MODELI", BEOGRAD, 1972.
123-126
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1972
godina X
Savi, Berislav
IVOJIN GAVRILOVI "ANTROPOMETRIJSKO ISPITIVANJE PRVE I DRUGE GENERACIJE LIANA U
VOJVODINI", NOVI SAD, 1972.
126
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Macura, Milo
POPULACIONE POLITIKE U SOCIJALISTIKIM ZEMLJAMA EVROPE
POPULATION POLICIES IN SOCIALIST COUNTRIES OF EUROPE
11-26
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Livi-Bacci, Massimo
POPULACIONA POLITIKA U ZAPADNOJ EVROPI
POPULATION POLICY IN WESTERN EUROPE
26-47
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
67
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BIIB
BL
LIIO
OG
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OV
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OBBJJA
AV
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EN
NIIIH
U
A
OPPIISSU
U
NO
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TV
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OD
DU
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1972,1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Valentej, Dimitrije
O SISTEMU DEMOGRAFSKIH ZNANJA
ON THE SYSTEM OF DEMOGRAPHIC KNOWLEDGE
47-58
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Grebo, Zlata
SOCIO-DEMOGRAFSKE ZAKONITOSTI PROMJENA NATALITETA U SOCIJALIZMU
THE SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC REGULARITIES OF CHANGES IN NATALITY IN SOCIALISM
58-72
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Grebo, Zlata
SOCIO-DEMOGRAFSKE ZAKONITOSTI PROMJENA NATALITETA U SOCIJALIZMU
THE SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC REGULARITIES OF CHANGES IN NATALITY IN SOCIALISM
58-72
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Anii, Zagorka
NEKA METODOLOKA PITANJA POLJOPRIVREDNOG STANOVNITVA S POSEBNIM OSVRTOM NA
AKTIVNO POLJOPRIVREDNO STANOVNISTVO
SOME METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS OF THE AGRICULTURAL POPULATION WITH PARTICULAR
REFERENCE GIVEN TO THE ACTIVE POPULATION
88-101
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
68
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BIIB
BL
LIIO
OG
RA
DO
OV
AO
OBBJJA
AV
LJJE
EN
NIIIH
U
A
OPPIISSU
U
NO
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TV
VO
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OD
DU
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
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VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Starc, Artur
PRILOG PROBLEMU AKTIVNOG POLJOPRIVREDNOG STANOVNITVA
A CONTRIBUTION TO THE PROBLEM OF THE AGRICULTURAL POPULATION
101-114
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Todorovi, Gordana, Ana Plavec
PROJEKCIJE UKUPNOG STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE PO STAROSTI I POLU (1970-2000)
PROJECTION OF THE TOTAL YUGOSLAVIAS POPULATION BY AGE AND SEX (1970-2000)
114-136
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Breznik, Duan, Milica Senti
PROJEKCIJE UKUPNOG I AKTIVNOG STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE SA MIGRACIONOM
KOMPONENTOM
PROJECTIONS OF THE TOTAL AND ACTIVE POPULATION OF YUGOSLAVIA WITH MIGRATION
COMPONENT
137-176
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Friganovi, Mladen
TIPOVI KRETANJA STANOVNITVA I EGZODUSNA PODRUJA HRVATSKE 1961-1971.
TYPES OF POPULATION MOVEMENT AND THE REGIONS OF EXSODUS IN CROATIA IN 1961-1971
PERIOD
177-190
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
69
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BIIB
BL
LIIO
OG
RA
DO
OV
AO
OBBJJA
AV
LJJE
EN
NIIIH
U
A
OPPIISSU
U
NO
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TV
VO
ERRIIO
OD
DU
GR
AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
AN
OV
VN
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Raevi, Miroslav
PROMENE U EKONOMSKOJ AKTIVNOSTI STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE OD 1953. DO 1971. GODINE
CHANGES IN THE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF YUGOSLAVIA'S POPULATION IN THE 1953-1971 PERIOD
190-204
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Beluhan, A., M. Benc, D. tampar, P. Trenc
POZNAVANJE I PRIMJENA KONTRACEPCIJE U SREDNJEKOLSKE OMLADINE U SR HRVATSKOJ
KNOWLEGDE ABOUT THE USE OF CONTRACEPTION AMONG THE SECONDARY SCHOOL BOYS AND
GIRLS IN THE SR OF CROATIA
204-217
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Panov, Mitko
HIPSOGRAFSKI RAZMETAJ STANOVNITVA SR MAKEDONIJE
HIPSOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF MACEDONIAS POPULATION
218-229
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Breznik, Duan
KONGRES MEUNARODNE UNIJE ZA NAUNA PROUAVANJA STANOVNITVA
230-236
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1972,1-2/1973
godinaX-XI
Breznik, Duan
RAZVITAK MARKSISTIKOG PRISTUPA TEORIJI I POLITICI POPULACIJE
237-242
70
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U
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DU
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
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VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
71
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Raevi, Miroslav
PREGLED KRETANJA STANOVNITVA I PRISTUP POPULACIONOJ POLITICI U SVETU I U UJEDINJENIM
NACIJAMA
242-246
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Breznik, Duan
PROBLEMI DEMOGRAFSKOG RAZVITKA STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE
246-254
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Rani, Miroljub
PLANIRANJE PORODICE U JUGOSLAVIJI RAZVOJ I PROBLEMI
254-258
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
oi, Duan
KOMPONENTE POPULACIONE POLITIKE SAOBRAZNO SADANJIM I BUDUIM POTREBAMA
JUGOSLAVIJE
258-264
asopis Stanovnitvo
prilog
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Ristanovi, Zorica
SAVETOVANJE O IZGRADNJI DRUTVENIH STAVOVA O POPULACIONOJ POLITICI JUGOSLAVIJE
SPISAK REFERATA, BEOGRAD, 26-28.09.1973.
264-266
asopis Stanovnitvo
prilog
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Malai, Janez
PRVI SLOVENAKI DEMOGRAFSKI SIMPOZIJUM, LJUBLJANA, 13-14.03.1974.
266-276
B
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BL
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OBBJJA
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EN
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U
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DU
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
prilog
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Rani, Miroljub
TEORIJSKO-METODOLOKI PROBLEMI I REZULTATI ISPITIVANJA STANOVNITVA (OSRVT NA
JUGOSLOVENSKI SIMPOZIJUM O STANOVNITVU), OHRID, 20-23.04.1973.
276-282
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Krneta, Mile
JUGOSLOVENSKO STATISTIKO DRUTVO (SAVETOVANJE "METODLOKI PROBLEMI STATISTIKE
STANOVNITVA"), BLED, 23-24.04.1974.
282-284
engleski rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
oi, Duan
"FERTILITET AUTOHTONOG I MIGRANTSKOG STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE", BEOGRAD, 1973.
285-286
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Stojkovi, Olivera
"PRZESLO DEMOGRAFICZNA POLSKI MATERIJALY I STUDIA", VARAVA, br.4/1971. i 5/1972.
286-288
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Breznik, Duan
UNITED NATIONS "THE DETERMINANTS AND CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION TRENDS", NEW
YORK, 1973
288-289
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1972, 1-2/1973
godina X-XI
Pavi, Pero
WERTHEIMER-BALETI, ALICA "DEMOGRAFIJA (STANOVNITVO I EKONOMSKI RAZVITAK)",
ZAGREB, 1973.
289-292
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72
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
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VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1973, 1-2/1974
godina XI-XII
Breznik, Duan
RAZVITAK STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE U POSLERATNOM PERIODU
THE DEVELOPMENT OF YUGOSLAVIA'S POPULATION IN THE POST-WAR PERIOD
11-58
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1973, 1-2/1974
godina XI-XII
Kreovec, Stane
TRI SASTANKA O RAZGRANIENJU GRADSKOG OD SEOSKOG STANOVNITVA
THREE CONFERENCES ON DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE URBAN AND THE RURAL POPULATION
59-87
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
engleski rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1973, 1-2/1974
godina XI-XII
Lalovi, Miroslav
USLOVLJENOST UNUTRANJIH MIGRACIJA U JUGOSLAVIJI INIOCIMA SOCIO-EKONOMSKE I
DEMOGRAFSKE PRIRODE POKUAJ PRIMENE FAKTORSKE ANALIZE
INTERNAL MIGRATION IN YUGOSLAVIA AND ITS DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC
CORRELATES AN ATTEMPT MADE AT APLYING THE FACTOR ANALYSIS
88-108
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1973, 1-2/1974
godina XI-XII
Mladenovi, Dragoslav
PROMENE U EKONOMSKOJ STRUKTURI STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE POSLE DRUGOG SVETSKOG
RATA
CHANGES IN THE ECONOMIC STRUCTURE IN YUGOSLAVIA'S POPULATION AFTER WORD WAR II
109-120
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
73
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AFFIIJJA
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VL
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ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1973, 1-2/1974
godina XI-XII
Petrovi, Milan
SOCIJALNO-EKONOMSKA STRUKTURA DOMAINSTAVA NA UOJ TERITORIJI SR SRBIJE 1973.
GODINE
THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC STRUCTURE OF HOUSEHOLDS IN SERBIA PROPER IN 1973
121-134
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1973, 1-2/1974
godina XI-XII
Friganovi, Mladen
TIPOVI DOBNOG SASTAVA STANOVNITVA SR HRVATSKE
TYPES OF THE AGE STRUCTURE OIN CROATIA'S POPULATION
135-151
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1973,1-2/1974
godina XI-XII
Ili, Jovan
OSNOVNE STATISTIKE I DRUTVENO-EKONOMSKE KARAKTERISTIKE PRISUTNOG STANOVNITVA
(NA PRIMERU BEOGRADA)
THE BASIC STATISTICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE PRESENT (DE FACTO)
POPULATION (THE EXAMPLE OF BELGRADE)
152-166
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1973, 1-2/1974
godina XI-XII
Stepanovi, Emilija
U PRILOG OCENI STVARNOG OBIMA NEZAPOSLENIH MEU PRIJAVLJENIM LICIMA ZA ZAPOSLENJE
AN ESTIMATE OF THE ACTUALLY UNEMPLOYED AMONG THOSE REGISTERED ASKING FOR
EMPLOYMENT
166-170
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
74
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BL
LIIO
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OV
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OBBJJA
AV
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EN
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U
A
OPPIISSU
U
NO
NIIT
TV
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OD
DU
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1973,1-2/1974
godina XI-XII
Petrovi, Rua
KRETANJE STANOVNITVA PO OPTINAMA U SR SRBIJI 1961-1971.
THE MOVEMENT OF POPULATION, BY THE COMMUNES IN SERBIA, 1961-1971
171-188
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1973, 1-2/1974
godina XI-XII
Krsti, Vojislav
DEMOGRAFSKE ANALIZE MALIH PODRUJA U PROSTORNIM PLANOVIMA NA PRIMERU OPTINE I
GRADA NIA
THE DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS OF SMALL REGIONS IN SPACIAL PLAN, THE EXAMPLE OF THE
COMUNE AND TOWN OF NI
189-206
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1973, 1-2/1974
godina XI-XII
Breznik, Duan
SVETSKA KONFERENCIJA O STANOVNITVU, BUKURET, 19-30.08.1974.
207-244
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1973, 1-2/1974
godina XI-XII
Senti, Milica, Nadeda Milenkovi
XI GODINJI SASTANAK JUGOSLOVENSKOG STATISTIKOG DRUTVA
245-248
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1973, 1-2/1974
godina XI-XII
Rani, Miroljub
IZ RADA NA PLANIRANJU PORODICE OSRVT NA SAVETOVANJE NA BLEDU, 20-22.11.1974.
248-258
75
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EN
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OPPIISSU
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TV
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OD
DU
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AFFIIJJA
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AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
76
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1973, 1-2/1974
godina XI-XII
Plavec, Anelija, Dragica Dobrini
PROMENE U POKAZATELJIMA SMRTNOSTI U TABLICAMA 1970-1972. PREMA RANIJIM TABLICAMA
258-273
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1973, 1-2/1974
godinaXI-XII
tampar, Dubravka
ISTRAIVANJE O POUZDANOSTI PODATAKA O UESTALOSTI NASILNIH POBAAJA
273-276
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1973, 1-2/1974
godina XI-XII
Breznik, Duan
IV JUGOSLOVENSKI KONGRES O ISHRANI, OHRID, 22-24.04.1975.
277-279
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1973, 1-2/1974
godina XI-XII
Senti, Milica
ZLATA GREBO "OVJEK, RAANJE I DRUTVO", SARAJEVO, 1975.
283-285
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1973, 1-2/1974
godina XI-XII
Senti, Milica
ANELIJA PLAVEC "NASILNE SMRTI U JUGOSLAVIJI 1951-1970." BEOGRAD, 1974.
285-288
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1973, 1-2/1974
godina XI-XII
Senti, Milica
REPUBLIKI ZAVOD ZA STATISTIKU SR SRBIJE "STATISTIKI GODINJAK SR SRBIJE 1974." I "OPTINE
U SR SRBIJI 1974. STATISTIKI PODACI" BEOGRAD, 1975.
289
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1973, 1-2/1974
godina XI-XII
Senti, Milica
GRADSKI ZAVOD ZA STATISTIKU "STANOVNITVO BEOGRADA POPIS 31.03.1971." BEOGRAD, 1975.
289-292
B
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OV
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OBBJJA
AV
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EN
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U
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NO
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TV
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DU
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
77
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1973, 1-2/1974
godina XI-XII
Krneta, Milorad
MLADEN FRIGANOVI, PERO PAVI "UZROCI I POSLJEDICE DEMOGRAFSKIH PROMJENA U SR
HRVATSKOJ 1961-1971. GODINE"
292-293
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1973, 1-2/1974
godina XI-XII
Ristanovi, Zora
"INTRODUZIONE BIBLIOGRAFICA AI PROBLEMI DELLE MIGRAZIONI", ROMA, 1971
293-294
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
Tomi, Duan, Duan Breznik
MEUSOBNI ODNOS STANOVNITVA, HRANE I RAZVOJA POLJOPRIVREDE U JUGOSLAVIJI
INTERRELATIONS OF POPULATION, FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN YUGOSLAVIA
5-40
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
Vogelnik, Dolfe, Nua Ferligoj
DETERMINANTE SELIDBENIH PROCESA U JUGOSLAVIJI (POKUAJ UPOTREBE FAKTORSKE ANALIZE)
DETERMINANTS OF MIGRATION PROCESSES IN YUGOSLAVIA (AN ATTEMPT OF FACTOR ANALYSIS
APLICATION)
41-55
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
Rani, Miroljub
NEKI DEMOGRAFSKI ASPEKTI PROUAVANJA MIGRACIJA U JUGOSLAVIJI
SOME DEMOGRAPHIC ASPECTS OF MIGRATION STUDY IN YUGOSLAVIA
56-64
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
francuski rezime
B
BIIB
BL
LIIO
OG
RA
DO
OV
AO
OBBJJA
AV
LJJE
EN
NIIIH
U
A
OPPIISSU
U
NO
NIIT
TV
VO
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OD
DU
GR
AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
78
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
Miroslav Raevi
EFIKASNOST KONTRACEPCIJE I STAVOVI UDATIH ENA OVOM PITANJU
CONTRACEPTION EFFICIENCY AND MARRIED WOMEN ATTITUDES TO THIS QUESTION
65-71
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
Senti, Milica
PRIMENA KONTRACEPCIJE U JUGOSLAVIJI
APLICATION OF CONTRACEPTION IN YUGOSLAVIA
72-78
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
Dini, Jovan
PROBLEMI I ZNAAJ VALORIZACIJE PRIRODNIH USLOVA GRADSKIH NASELJA
PROBLEMS AND IMPORTANCE OF VALORIZATION OF NATURAL CONDITIONS OF URBAN LOCALITIES
79-84
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
postoji vrlo kratak ruski rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
oi, Duan
PROBLEMI STANOVNITVA U OKVIRU MODELA GLOBALNOG RAZVOJA SVETA
PROBLEMS OF POPULATION WITHIN THE MODEL OF OVERALL WORLD POPULATION
85-92
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
B
BIIB
BL
LIIO
OG
RA
DO
OV
AO
OBBJJA
AV
LJJE
EN
NIIIH
U
A
OPPIISSU
U
NO
NIIT
TV
VO
ERRIIO
OD
DU
GR
AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
AN
OV
VN
O"" U
U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
Wertheimer-Baleti Alica
STOPE EKONOMSKE AKTIVNOSTI STANOVNITVA SR HRVATSKE I NJIHOVE DETERMINANTE
RATES OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF POPULATION OF SR CROATIA AND ITS DETERMINANTS
93-103
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1974,1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
Iki, Desanka
NEZAPOSLENA ENSKA RADNA SNAGA U BOSNI I HERCEGOVINI
UNEMPLOYED FEMALE LABOUR FORCE IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
104-115
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
Todorovi, Gordana
NEKE DEMOGRAFSKE STRUKTURE GRADSKOG STANOVNITVA I DOMAINSTVA SRBIJE
SOME DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCURES OF URBAN POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS OF SERBIA
116-133
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
Halpern, M. Joel, E. A. Hammel
SRPSKO DRUTVO U KARAOREVOJ SRBIJI ANTROPOLOKO GLEDITE
SERBIAN SOCIETY IN SERBIA DURING THE RULE OF KARADJORDJE ANTHROPOLOGY ASPECT
134-155
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
79
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BL
LIIO
OG
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OV
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OBBJJA
AV
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EN
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U
A
OPPIISSU
U
NO
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TV
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OD
DU
GR
AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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VN
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
Macura, Miroslav
PROCENJIVANJE TRENDOVA SMRTNOSTI ODOJADI IZ PODATAKA REPRODUKTIVNIH ISTORIJA
ESTIMATE OF INFANT DEATH TRENDS ON THE BASIS OF REPRODUCTIVE HISTORIES DATA
156-168
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
Peri, Marko
POSEBNO DEMOGRAFSKO ISTRAIVANJE JEVREJSKE ZAJEDNICE U JUGOSLAVIJI
SPECIAL DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEY OF JEWISH COMMUNITY IN YUGOSLAVIA
169-184
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
Trnavac, Nedeljko
AUTOHTONOST STANOVNITVA I POKRETLJIVOST NASTAVNOG KADRA U ODNOSU NA MESTO
ROENJA
AUTOCHTONY OF POPULATION AND MOBILITY OF TEACHING STUFF COMPARED WITH PLACE OF
BIRTH
185-190
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
Rani, Miroljub
MEUNARODNA KONFERENCIJA DEMOGRAFA SOCIJALISTIKIH ZEMALJA, LIBLICE, SSR, 1976.
191-192
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
Senti, Milica
DUAN BREZNIK, GORDANA TODOROVI, MIROSLAV LALOVI "METODI DEMOGRAFSKE ANALIZE
MIGRACIJE", BEOGRAD, 1975.
193-194
80
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EN
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U
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U
NO
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TV
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OD
DU
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
Breznik, Duan
STANKA KRANJC-SIMONETI "DINAMIKA SPLAVA V ODVIDNOSTI OD IRJENJA SODOBNE
KONTRACEPCIJE U SR SLOVENIJI OD 1955. DO 1974", LJUBLJANA, 1976.
194-196
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
Breznik, Duan
MIROSLAV RAEVI, MILO MACURA, TRIPO MULINA "DETERMINANTE EKONOMSKE AKTIVNOSTI
STANOVNITVA SFRJ", BEOGRAD, 1976.
196-197
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
Baleti, Zvonimir
IVO VINSKI "DRUTVENI PROIZVOD SVIJETA", ZAGREB, 1976.
197-198
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
Milenkovi, Nadeda
EDOMIR VUKMANOVI "DIREKTNI I INDIREKTNI INIOCI U SMRTNOSTI ODOJADI U SFRJ",
BEOGRAD, 1973
198-200
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
Senti, Milica
EJUB SIJERI "MIGRACIJE STANOVNITVA BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE", SARAJEVO, 1976.
200-201
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
oi, Duan
"POPULATION POLICY IN CZECHOSLOVAKIA", PRAGUE, 1974
201-202
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
oi, Duan
SIMULACIONI MODEL GLOBALNOG RAZVOJA SVETA, DUBROVNIK, 21-27.09.1975.
203
81
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BL
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OBBJJA
AV
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EN
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U
A
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U
NO
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TV
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OD
DU
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AFFIIJJA
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AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 3-4/1974, 1-2/1975
godina XII-XIII
Kneevi, Bogi
POVODOM IV INTERNACIONALNOG KONGRESA RURALNE SOCIOLOGIJE
203-204
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1975,1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Macura, Milo
PROBLEMI MILTIDISCIPLINARNE NASTAVE O STANOVNITVU
PROBLEMS OF MULTIDISCIPLINARY TECHING ON POPULATION
5-21
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Breznik, Duan
DEMOGRAFSKA KRETANJA U SRBIJI I MERE ZA REAVANJE PROBLEMA
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN SERBIA AND MEASURES TO BE UNDERTAKEN FOR RESOLVING
PROBLEMS
22-71
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Vogelnik, Dolfe
DOPRINOS ANALIZI RURALNO-URBANIH SELIDBENIH TOKOVA JUGOSLAVIJE 1961-1971
CONTRIBUTION TO THE ANALYSIS OF RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION TREND IN YUGOSLAVIA
72-96
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Raevi, Miroslav
STANOVNITVO, ZAPOSLENOST I RAZVOJ U ARAPSKIM ZEMLJAMA
POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT AND DEVELOPMENT IN ARAB COUNTRIES
97-126
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
82
B
BIIB
BL
LIIO
OG
RA
DO
OV
AO
OBBJJA
AV
LJJE
EN
NIIIH
U
A
OPPIISSU
U
NO
NIIT
TV
VO
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OD
DU
GR
AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
83
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Kapor-Stanulovi, Nila
BRAK I PORODINI ODNOSI SA POSEBNIM OSVRTOM NA REPRODUKTIVNO PONAANJE U BRAKU
MARRIAGE AND FAMILY PROBLEMS WITH A SPECIAL COMMENT ON REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR IN
THE MARRIAGE
127-145
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
tampar, Dubravka
PODACI O PONOVLJENIM POBAAJIMA U SR HRVATSKOJ
DATA ON REPEAT ABORTIONS IN THE SR OF CROATIA
146-155
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Ferenevi-Nikainovi, Stevanka, Miroslava Pavlov, Zvezdana Radovanovi, Ilinka Simi
NAMERNI POBAAJI U ENA RAZNIH NACIONALNOSTI U SAP VOJVODINI
ARTIFICIAL ABORTIONS AMONG WOMEN OF DIFFERENT NATIONALITIES IN VOJVODINA
155-158
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Begovi, Nada
ZAPOSLENOST I ZAPOLJAVANJE KAO FAKTORI RAZVOJA I PRIVREIVANJA
EMPLOYMENT AS THE FACTOR OF DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
159-174
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
B
BIIB
BL
LIIO
OG
RA
DO
OV
AO
OBBJJA
AV
LJJE
EN
NIIIH
U
A
OPPIISSU
U
NO
NIIT
TV
VO
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OD
DU
GR
AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
AN
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VN
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Rani, Miroljub
NEKE KARAKTERISTIKE SEOSKOG STANOVNITVA SR SRBIJE
SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF SERBIA'S RURAL POPULATION
175-186
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
iri, Jovan
PROBLEM ODREENJA NASELJA
THE PROBLEM OF DEFINING SETTLEMENT
187-199
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Rani, Miroljub
NEKE KARAKTERISTIKE SEOSKOG STANOVNITVA SR SRBIJE
SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF SERBIA'S RURAL POPULATION
175-186
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Milanovi, Dragoljub
SAVREMENI MIGRACIONI PROCESI NA PODRUJU KRALJEVA
PRESENT-DAY MIGRATIONAL PROCESS IN THE REGION OF KRALJEVO
200-207
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
84
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BIIB
BL
LIIO
OG
RA
DO
OV
AO
OBBJJA
AV
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EN
NIIIH
U
A
OPPIISSU
U
NO
NIIT
TV
VO
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OD
DU
GR
AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
AN
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VN
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
85
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1975,1-2/1976
godinaXIII-XIV
Isljami, Hivzi
POKUAJ DEMOGRAFSKE TIPOLOGIJE PODRUJA KOSOVA
AN ATTEMPT AT MAKING A DEMOGRAPHIC TIPOLOGY OF THE REGION OF KOSOVO
208-216
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Krneta, Milorad
DUGORONE PROMENE STAROSNE STRUKTURE POLJOPRIVREDNOG I NEPOLJOPRIVREDNOG
STANOVNITVA SR SRBIJE
LONG-TERM CHANGE IN THE AGE STRUCTURE OF AGRICULTURAL AND NON-AGRICULTURAL
POPULATION IN SERBIA
217-228
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1975,1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Kovai, Zlatko
MATRICA RASTA I NJENO KORIENJE U DEMOGRAFIJI
GROWTH MATRIX AND ITS USE IN DEMOGRAPHY
229-241
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Senti, Milica
SAVETOVANJE O PRAVNIM ASPEKTIMA OSTVARIVANJA USTAVNOG PRAVA OVEKA DA SLOBODNO
ODLUUJE O RAANJU DECE, OHRID, 6-7.10.1977.
243-249
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Breznik, Duan
KONGRES MEUNARODNE UNIJE ZA NAUNO PROUAVANJE STANOVN17VA, MEKSIKO, 823.08.1977.
249-258
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asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Livada, Svetozar
INFORMACIJA O UVOENJU MIROVINSKOG OSIGURANJA POLJOPRIVREDNIKA U EVROPI
258-274
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Njegi, Radmila
DUAN BREZNIK "DEMOGRAFIJA ANALIZA, METODI I MODELI", BEOGRAD, 1977.
274-277
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Centar za demografska istraivanja
GRUPA AUTORA "VARIJALBE NISKOG FERTILITETASTANOVNITVA I NAMERNI ABORTUSI U
VOJVODINI", BEOGRAD, 1978.
277
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Centar za demografska istraivanja
GRUPA AUTORA "DEMOGRAFSKA KRETANJA 1 KARAKTERISTIKE STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE
PREMA NACIONALNOJ PRIPADNOSTI", BEOGRAD, 1978.
277-278
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Senti, Milica
SAVEZNI ZAVOD ZA STATISTIKU "SAMOUPRAVNI DRUTVENO-EKONOMSKI RAZVOJ JUGOSLAVIJE
1947-1977, BEOGRAD, 1978.
279
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Breznik, Duan
ALICA WERTHEIMER-BALETI "EKONOMSKA AKTIVNOST STANOVNITVA. DEMOGRAFSKI
ASPEKTI", ZAGREB, 1977.
279-281
86
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87
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Rani, Miroljub
RUA PETROVI "DRUTVO I STANOVNITVO MAKROSOCIOLOKI I DEMOGRAFSKI ASPEKTI
RAZVOJA SR SRBIJE", BEOGRAD 1978.
281-282
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Plavec, Zoran
"FERTILITY AND FAMILY IN EUROPE AROUND 1970: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF TWELVE NATIONAL
SURVEYS", NEW YORK, 1973
282-286
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Ristanovi, Zora
PHILIPE COLLOMB, ELIZABETH ZUCKER "SOCIOLOKO-PSIHOLOKI I KULTURNI ASPEKTI
FRANCUSKOG FERTILITETA", PARIZ, 1977.
286-287
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Breznik, Duan
GOLINI, A., L. SOLIANI, G. GIAVELLI, R. ZANNl "TAVOLE DI MORTALITA RIDOTTE PER LE REGIONI E
LA RIPARTIZIONI ITALIANE 1951-1961-1971", RIM, 1977.
287-290
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Todorovi, Gordana
G.A.BONDARSKAJA "RODAEMOST V SSSR", MOSKVA, 1977.
290-291
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Todorovi, Gordana
"SISTEMAZNANII O NARODONASELENII", MOSKVA, 1976.
291-292
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88
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Todorovi, Gordana
V.V.BODROVA "NARODONASELENIE EVROPEISKIH SOCIJALISTIESKIH STRAN", MOSKVA, 1976.
292-293
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Breznik, Duan
LOUIS ROUSSEL "LE MARIAGE DANS LA SOCIT FRANAISE", PARIS, 1975.
294-298
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Breznik, Duan
GEORGIES TOPINOS: "L'IMMIGRATION ETRANGRE EN FRANCE", PARIS, 1975.
298-299
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1975, 1-2/1976
godina XIII-XIV
Breznik, Duan
"L'EMIGRAZIONE DEL BACINO MEDITERANEO VERSO L'EUROPA INDUSTRIALIZZATA", MILANO, 1976.
299-300
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1976, 1-4/1977
godina XIV-XV
Breznik, Duan
FERTILITET STANOVNITVA I PLANIRANJE PORODICE U JUGOSLAVIJI, UVOD
FERTILITY AND FAMILY PLANNING IN YUGOSLAVIA, INTRODUCTION
7-10
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1976, 1-4/1977
godina XIV-XV
Breznik, Duan
METODOLOKA PITANJA STUDIJE
METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY
11-50
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
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ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
89
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1976, 1-4/1977
godina XIV-XV
Rani, Miroljub
OSVRT NA RAZVITAK STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE
REVIEW OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE YUGOSLAV POPULATION
51-59
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
nema rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1976, 1-4/1977
godina XIV-XV
Breznik, Duan
NATALITET I FERTILITET STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE
FERTILITY OF YUGOSLAV POPULATION
61-106
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1976, 1-4/1977
godina XIV-XV
Grebo, Zlata
FERTILITET STANOVNITVA BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE I NJEGOVO BRZO OPADANJE U POSLERATNOM
PERIODU
FERTILITY OF THE POPULATION IN BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA AND ITS RAPID POST-WAR DECLINE
107-116
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1976, 1-4/1977
godina XIV-XV
Breznik, Duan
RAZMACI IZMEU POROAJA I STAROST ENA PRI RAANJU DECE
BIRTH INTERVALS AND MATERNAL AGE AT BIRTH
117-134
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1976, 1-4/1977
godina XIV-XV
Raevi, Miroslav
FEKONDITET BRANIH PAROVA U JUGOSLAVIJI
FECUNDITY OF MARRIED COUPLES
135-146
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1976, 1-4/1977
godina XIV-XV
Petri, Nevenka
DRUTVENO-POLITIKI ASPEKTI PLANIRANJA PORODICE U JUGOSLAVIJI
FAMILY PLANNING IN YUGOSLAVIA AND ITS DEVELOPMENT
147-156
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1976, 1-4/1977
godina XIV-XV
Alini, Mira
O PLANIRANJU PORODICE U SFRJ S PRAVNOG ASPEKTA
FAMILY PLANNING IN YUGOSLAVIA FROM THE LEGAL ASPECT
157-174
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1976, 1-4/1977
godina XIV-XV
Todorovi, Gordana
STAVOVI STANOVNITVA O VELIINI PORODICE I O ABORTUSU
ATTITUDES TOWARDS FAMILY SIZE AND ABORTION
175-190
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1976, 1-4/1977
godina XIV-XV
Alini, Mira
O PLANIRANJU PORODICE U SFRJ S PRAVNOG ASPEKTA
FAMILY PLANNING IN YUGOSLAVIA FROM THE LEGAL ASPECT
157-174
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1976, 1-4/1977
godina XIV-XV
Todorovi, Gordana
STAVOVI STANOVNITVA O VELIINI PORODICE I O ABORTUSU
ATTITUDES TOWARDS FAMILY SIZE AND ABORTION
175-190
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
90
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1976, 1-4/1977
godina XIV-XV
Breznik, Duan
MOTIVACIJE UDATIH ENA U POGLEDU BUDUEG RAANJA
MOTIVATIONS OF MARRIED WOMEN TO HAVE NO CHILDREN
191-196
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1976, 1-4/1977
godina XIV-XV
Senti, Milica
KONTRACEPCIJA I NJENI DEMOGRAFSKI ASPEKTI
CONTRACEPTION AND ITS DEMOGRAPHIC ASPECTS
197-210
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1976, 1-4/1977
godina XIV-XV
Lalovi, Miroslav
KONTROLA RAANJA PUTEM ABORTUSA
BIRTH CONTROL BY MEANS OF ABORTION
211-238
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1976, 1-4/1977
godina XIV-XV
Antonovski, Ljubomir
MEDICINSKI ASPEKTI KONTRACEPCIJE U JUGOSLAVIJI
MEDICAL ASPECTS OF CONTRACEPTION IN YUGOSLAVIA
239-242
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1976, 1-4/1977
godina XIV-XV
MEDICINSKI ASPEKTI ARTIFICIJALNOG ABORTUSA U JUGOSLAVIJI
MEDICAL ASPECTS OF INDUCED ABORTION IN YUGOSLAVIA
243-254
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
91
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asopis Stanovnitvo
beleka
broj 1-4/1978
godinaXVI
Macura, Milo
POVODOM OSAMDESETE GODINJICE ALFREDA SOVIJA
5-8
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1978
godinaXVI
Macura, Milo
DUGORONA STRATEGIJA EKONOMSKOG I DEMOGRAFSKOG RAZVOJA
LONG-TERM STRATEGY OF ECONOMICS AND DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT
9-23
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1978
godina XVI
Senti, Milica
NEKA RAZMATRANJA O STARENJU AKTIVNOG POLJOPRIVREDNOG STANOVNITVA
SOME CONSIDERATIONS ON THE AGEING OF THE ACTIVE AGRICULTURAL POPULATION
23-41
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1978
godina XVI
Todorovi, Gordana
UTICAJ SADANJIH I BUDUIH TRENDOVA FERTILITETA NA NEKE BUDUE SOCIJALNE STRUKTRE
IMPACT OF PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS IN FERTILITY ON SOME FUTURE SOCIAL STRUCTURES
42-45
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1978
godina XVI
Gini, Ivanka
DINAMIKA URBANIZACIJE U SR SRBIJI
DYNAMICS OF THE URBANIYATION IN THE SR OF SERBIA
46-76
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
92
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1978
godina XVI
Senti, Milica, Duan Breznik
DEMOGRAFSKE PROMENE U BRAKU I PORODICI I NEKE NJIHOVE SOCIJALNE PROMENE
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN MARRIAGE AND THE FAMILY AND THEIR SOCIAL CONCEQUENCES
77-94
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
francuski rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1978
godina XVI
Macura, Milo
DETERMINANTE EKONOMSKE AKTIVNOSTI ENA U NEPOLJOPRIVREDI SFRJ
DETERMINANTS OF WOMEN'S ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN NON-AGRICULTURE OF YUGOSLAVIA
95-117
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1978
godina XVI
Radivojevi, Biljana
SMRTNOST STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE PREMA STAROSTI I POLU U RAZDOBLJU 1952-1976.
MORTALITY IN YUGOSLAVIA'S POPULATION BY AGE AND SEX IN 1952-1976 PERIOD
118-139
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1978
godina XVI
Wertheimer-Baleti, Alica, Zvonimir Baleti
POLJOPRIVREDNO STANOVNITVO SLAVONIJE I BARANJE
AGRICULTURAL POPULATION IN SLAVONIA AND BARANJA
140-152
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
93
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U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1978
godina XVI
Demerdiev, K., LJ. Antonovski
NEKE KARAKTERISTIKE ADOLESCENTATA DOLIH NA ABORTUS U SKOPLJU 1978.
SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF ADOLESCENTS WHO CAME TO SKOPJE TO ABORT, 1978
153-157
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1978
godina XVI
Raevi, Miroslav
TEZE O DEPOPULACIJI U RAZVIJENIM ZEMLJAMA
SOME REMARKS ON DEPOPULATION IN THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
158-163
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1978
godina XVI
Petrovi, Rua
TIPOVI FERTILITETA I REPRODUKTIVNOG PONAANJA U SR SRBIJI 1961. DO 1971. GODINE
TYPES OF FERTILITY AND REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR IN SERBIA IN THE 1961-1971 PERIOD
164-182
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1978
godina XVI
Nurkovi, Safet
REGIONALNE SPECIFINOSTI U DOBNOM SASTAVU STANOVNITVA OPTINE ROAJA
REGIONAL SPECIFIC CHARACTERISTICS IN THE AGE STRUCTURE OF THE POPULATION OF THE
ROAJE
183-187
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
94
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BL
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ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
95
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1978
godina XVI
Islami, Hivzi
PREGLED RASPROSTRANJENOSTI I PORASTA BROJA ALBANACA U SVETU
A REVIEW OF THE SPREAD OF ALBANIANS IN THE WORLD AND OF INCREASE OF THEIR NUMBER
188-211
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1978
godina XVI
Latifi, Zoran
ANALIZA GLAVNIH FAKTORA SMRTNOSTI STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE U PERIODU 1950-1970.
METODOM GLAVNIH KOMPONENATA
AN ANALYSIS OF THE MAJOR FACTORS OF MORTALITY IN YUGOSLAVIA'S POPULATION IN THE 19501970 PERIOD BY MEANS OF THE METHOD OF PRINCIPLE COMPONENTS
212-234
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1978
godinaXVI
Lisov, Milimir
OCENA KRITERIJA ZA IZBOR MEHANIKIH METODA IZRAVNAVANJA SIROVIH VEROVATNOA
SMRTI
AN ASSESMENT OF THE CRITERIA OF THE SELECTION OF MECHANICAL METHODS OF RECTIFYING
235-242
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/1978
godina XVI
Todorovi, Gordana
SISTEMSKA ANALIZA SKORANJIH PROMENA U STANOVNITVU KOJE UPUUJU NA POLITIKU
AKCIJU SA SPECIJALNIM OSVRTOM NA FERILITET, ATINA, 2-5.10.1979.
243-244
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1978
godina XVI
Senti, Milica
GORDANA TODOROVI "PROJEKCIJE STANOVNITVA.TEORETSKO METODOLOKA STUDIJA",
BEOGRAD, 1978.
245-246
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1978
godina XVI
Penev, Goran
GRUPA AUTORA "BARANYAI NEMZETISGERKL", 1977.
247-248
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1978
godina XVI
Baki, Radovan
MLADEN FRIGANOVI "DEMOGRAFIJA", ZAGREB, 1978.
248-252
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1978
godina XVI
Senti, Milica
CDI IDN "RAZVITAK STANOVNITVA SR SRBIJE I PROMENE DO 2000. GODINE", BEOGRAD, 1979.
252-254
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1978
godina XVI
Penev, Goran
ENVER DUKAGJINI "GRADSKA NASELJA METOHIJE (DUKAINA)", PRITINA 1978.
254
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
godina XVII-XVIII-XIX
Kraovec, Stane
OD MALTUZIJANIZMA DO FINALIZMA
FROM MALTHUSIANISM TO FINALISM
9-19
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
Breznik, Duan, Koa Joni
UTVRIVANJE I IZRADA SOCIO-EKONOMSKIH INDIKATORA ZA NACIONALNOSTI U JUGOSLAVIJI
THE DEFINITION AND MAKING OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR NATIONALITIES IN
YUGOSLAVIA
20-51
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
postoji engleski rezime (dugaak 6 strana)
96
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OBBJJA
AV
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EN
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OPPIISSU
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NO
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TV
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DU
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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OV
VN
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
97
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
NEKE PSIHOLOKE VARIJABLE KOJE VODE OGRANIENOM BROJU RAANJA
SOME PSYCHOLOGICAL VARIABLES AIMING AT LIMITING THE NUMBER OF BIRTHS
52-59
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
Mulina, Tripo
PROBLEMI ZAPOSLENOSTI U JUGOSLAVIJI
PROBLEMS OF EMPLOYMENT IN YUGOSLAVIA
60-71
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
Ferligoj, Anuka, Dolfe Vogelnik, Slavko Splichal
MIGRACIONA KRETANJA U JUGOSLAVIJI U SVETLU TEORIJE ODBIJANJA I PRIVLAENJA: USLOVl I
MOGUNOSTI MULTIVARIJANTNE ANALIZE
MIGRATORY MOVEMENTS IN YUGOSLAVIA IN THE LIGHT OF THE PULL AND PUSH THEORY: THE
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBILITIES OF THE MULTI-VARIANT ANALYSIS
72-90
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
Todorovi, Gordana
USLOVLJENOST RAZLIKA U STAVOVIMA ENA O IDEALNOJ VELIINI PORODICE
DIFFERENCE'S CONDITIONALLY IN WOMEN'S ATTITUDES TOWARDS THE IDEAL SIZE OF THE FAMILY
91-110
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
B
BIIB
BL
LIIO
OG
RA
DO
OV
AO
OBBJJA
AV
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EN
NIIIH
U
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OPPIISSU
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NO
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TV
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OD
DU
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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O"" U
U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
98
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
Friganovi, Mladen
PROMENE U IVOTU SEOSKOG STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE
CHANGES IN THE LIFE OF YUGOSLAVIA'S RURAL POPULATION
111-118
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
Shen Qiu Hua
RAZVITAK STANOVNITVA I POPULACIONA POLITIKA U NR KINl
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE POPULATION AND THE POPULATION POLICY IN THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC
OF CHINA
119-127
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
Rani, Miroljub
REGIONALNE KARAKTERISTIKE OBNAVLJANJA I PRESELJAVANJA STANOVNITVA U SRBIJI
REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE POPULATION'S REPRODUCTION AND RE-SETTLEMENT IN
SERBIA
127-133
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
Macura, Milo, Miroslav Macura, Tripo Mulina, Miroslav Raevi
PROBLEMI OBNAVLJANJA STANOVNITVA POPULACIONE POLITIKE U SRBIJI
PROBLEM OF THE POPULATION'S REPRODUCTION AND POPULATION POLICIES IN SERBIA
134-159
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
B
BIIB
BL
LIIO
OG
RA
DO
OV
AO
OBBJJA
AV
LJJE
EN
NIIIH
U
A
OPPIISSU
U
NO
NIIT
TV
VO
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OD
DU
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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OV
VN
O"" U
U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
Rani, Miroljub
PRIRODNO KRETANJE STANOVNITVA U GRADSKIM, MEOVITIM I SEOSKIM NASELJIMA SR SRBIJE
VAN TERITORIJA SAP
THE POPULATION NATURAL MOVEMENT IN URBAN, MIXED AND RURAL SETTLEMENTS IN SERBIA
PROPER
160-179
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
NIZAK FERTILITET, AKTIVNO STANOVNITVO I ZAPOSLBNOST U SR HRVATSKOJ
LOW FERTILITY, ACTIVE POPULATION AND EMPLOYMNET IN CROATIA
179-187
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
1-4/1979-1980-1981
Avramov, Dragana
OBAVETENOST O KONTRACEPCIJI I KONTRACEPTIVNI STATUS ENA U SR SRBIJI
KNOWLEDGE OF CONTRACEPTION AND WOMEN'S CONTRACEPTIVE STATUS OF SERBIA PROPER
188-193
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
Tasi, Dragoljub
STARENJE STANOVNITVA U SR SRBIJI VAN TERITORIJA SAP
AGEING OF THE POPULATION OF SERBIA PROPER
193-226
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
99
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BIIB
BL
LIIO
OG
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OV
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OBBJJA
AV
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EN
NIIIH
U
A
OPPIISSU
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NO
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OD
DU
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
AN
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O"" U
U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
100
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
Malai, Janez
REPRODUKCIJA STANOVNITVA SR SLOVENIJE POSLE DEMOGRAFSKE TRANZICIJE
THE REPRODUCTION OF SLOVENIA'S POPULATION AFTER THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
227-253
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
Nurkovi, Safet
REGIONALNE RAZLIKE U DINAMICI KRETANJA STANOVNITVA STANOVNITVA SR CRNE GORE U
POSLEDNJEM RAZDOBLJU I TIPOVI KRETANJA STANOVNITVA (1971-1981)
REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN THE DYNAMICS OF THE POPULATION MOVEMENTS IN THE SR OF
MONTENEGRO IN THE POST-WAR PERIOD AND THE TYPES OF THE POPULATION MOVEMENTS (19711981)
254-267
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
Pushka Asllan
UTICAJ ZAPOSLENOSTI STANOVNITVA NA NATALITET (PRIMER KOSOVA)
POPULATION'S EMPLOYMENT AND FERTILITY (CASE OF KOSOVO)
268-271
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
postoji kratki francuski rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
Todorovi, Gordana
MEUNARODNI SEMINAR UN O PROJEKCIJAMA STANOVNITVA BUDIMPETA, 17-28.03.1980.
272-278
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
Breznik, Duan
DEMOGRAFSKA ISTRAIVANJA U JUGOSLAVIJI
278-286
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OD
DU
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
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VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
101
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
Breznik, Duan
MIRKO KORENI "NASELJA I STANOVNITVO SR HRVATSKE 1857-1971", DJELA JUGOSLAVENSKE
AKADEMIJE ZNANOSTI I UMJETNOSTI, KNJIGA 54, ZAGREB, 1979.
287-289
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
Shen Qui Hua
LIU ZHEN I SARADNICI "RENKOU LILUN" ("TEORIJA STANOVNITVA"), BEIJING, 1977.
289-291
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
Rani, Miroljub
JOVAN DINI "EKONOMSKA GEOGRAFIJA PRINCIPI, METOD, PROSTORNE STRUKTURE", BEOGRAD,
1981.
291-294
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1979-1980-1981
Breznik, Duan
MIROLJUB RANI "STATISTIKA STANOVNITVA", BEOGRAD, 1980.
294-296
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1982-1983
godina XX-XXI
Friganovi, Mladen
POPULACIONA POLITIKA I EGZODUSNA PODRUJA U SR HRVATSKOJ
POPULATION POLICY AND EXODUS REGIONS IN THE SR OF CROATIA
5-11
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1982-1983
godina XX-XXI
Radivojevi, Biljana
SKORANJE PROMENE U SMRTNOSTI STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVUE
LATEST CHANGE IN MORTALITY OF THE POPULATION OF YUGOSLAVIA
12-28
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
B
BIIB
BL
LIIO
OG
RA
DO
OV
AO
OBBJJA
AV
LJJE
EN
NIIIH
U
A
OPPIISSU
U
NO
NIIT
TV
VO
ERRIIO
OD
DU
GR
AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
AN
OV
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O"" U
U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
102
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1982-1983
godina XX-XXI
Ili, Jovan
KVANTITATIVNO-DINAMIKA KLASIFIKACIJA TERITORIJALNIH JEDINICA NA. PRIMERU PORATNOG
MENJANJA BROJA STANOVNIKA U SR SRBIJI
A QUANTITATIVE-DYNAMIC CLASSIFICATION OF THE TERITORIAL UNITS WITH REGARD TO THE
POSTWAR CHANGE IN THE NUMBER OF POPULATION IN THE SR OF SERBIA
29-75
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1982-1983
godina XX-XXI
Pavlovi, Ugljea
TENDENCIJE U KRETANJU POLJOPRIVREDNIH DOMAINSTAVA U SR SRBIJI
TRENDS IN SHIFTS OF AGRICULTURAL HOUSEHOLDS IN THE SR OF SERBIA
76-84
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1982-1983
godina XX-XXI
Gelo, Jakov
USPOREDNA SLIKA DEMOGRAFSKIH PROMENA I ODABRANIH ZEMALJA U ODNOSU NA HRVATSKU
OD 1780. DO 1980. GODINE
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN CROATIA AND SELECTED COUNTRIES BETWEEN 1780 AND 1980 A
COMPARATIVE PICTURE
85-98
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1982-1983
godina XX-XXI
Vukoti, Veselin
REPRODUKCIJA STANOVNITVA U GRADSKIM I OSTALIM NASELJIMA U SR CRNOJ GORI
THE POPULATION REPRODUCTION IN URBAN AND OTHER SETTLEMENTS IN THE SR OF
MONTENEGRO
99-112
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
B
BIIB
BL
LIIO
OG
RA
DO
OV
AO
OBBJJA
AV
LJJE
EN
NIIIH
U
A
OPPIISSU
U
NO
NIIT
TV
VO
ERRIIO
OD
DU
GR
AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
AN
OV
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
103
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1982-1983
godina XX-XXI
Pekevski, Boro
DEMOGRAFSKA KRETANJA SR MAKEDONIJE POD UTICAJEM DRUTVENO-EKONOMSKOG RAZVOJA U
ZEMLJI
DEMOGRAPHIC MOVEMENTS IN THE SR OF MACEDONIA UNDER THE IMPACT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT IN THE COUNTRY
113-121
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1982-1983
godina XX-XXI
Nurkovi, Safet
REGIONALNE RAZLIKE U NIVOU EKONOMSKE AKTIVNOSTI STANOVNITVA SR CRNE GORE U 1981.
GODINI
REGIONAL DIFFERENCES ON THE LEVEL OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN THE POPULATION OF SR OF
MONTENEGRO IN 1981
122-126
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1982-1983
godina XX-XXI
Krsti, Vojislav
KRETANJE, STRUKTURE I PROJEKCIJE STANOVNITVA REGIONA NI
THE MOVEMENT, STRUCURE AND PROJECTION OF THE POPULATION IN THE REGION OF NI
127-147
k.r.nema
k.r.nema
nema rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1982-1983
godina XX-XXI
Ivanova, Olga
PRIRODNO KRETANJE STANOVNITVA U SR MAKEDONIJI PO NARODNOSTII U PERIODU 1953-1980.
THE POPULATION NATURAL MOVEMENT IN MACEDONIA BY NATIONALITIES IN THE 1953-1980
PERIOD
148-158
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
B
BIIB
BL
LIIO
OG
RA
DO
OV
AO
OBBJJA
AV
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EN
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U
A
OPPIISSU
U
NO
NIIT
TV
VO
ERRIIO
OD
DU
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
AN
OV
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
104
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1982-1983
godina XX-XXI
Masevska, Sonja
PROMENE U PRIRODNOM KRETANJU STANOVNITVA NA NIVOU OPTINA U SR MAKEDONIJI U
PERIODU 1953-1979. GODINE
CHANGES IN THE POPULATION NATIONAL MOVEMENT ON THE LEVEL OF COMMMUNES IN
MACEDONIA IN THE 1953-1979 PERIOD
159-178
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
nema rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1982-1983
godina XX-XXI
Gavrilovi, ivojin
STRUKTURA POPULACIJE PRI SKLAPANJU BRAKOVA I NA ROENJU U SOMBORU IZMEU 1985. I 1979.
GODINE
POPULATION STRUCTURE AT MARRIAGE AND BIRTH IN SOMBOR BETWEEN 1895 AND 1979
179-185
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1982-1983
godina XX-XXI
Malai, Janez
"PART TIME FARMERS AND THEIR ADJUSTMENT TO PLURIACTIVITY", PART I AND II, PROCEEDINGS
OF THE SEMINAR, LJUBLJANA, 20-24.06.1981
186-190
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1982-1983
godina XX-XXI
Stipeti, Vladimir
J. DENNIS WILLIGAN, K.A. LYNCH "SOURCES AND METHODS OF HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, NEW
YORK, 1982
190-194
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1982-1983
godina XX-XXI
Radivojevi, Biljana
SAMUEL RESTON "MORTALITY PATTERNS IN NATIONAL POPULATION WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO
RECORDED CAUSES OF DEATH"
195-196
B
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
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ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1982-1983
godina XX-XXI
Avramov, Dragana
MASSIMO LIVI-BACCI "INTRODUZIONE ALLA DEMOGRAFIA", TORINO, 1981.
196-197
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1982-1983
godina XX-XXI
Radivoljevi, Biljana
UNITED NATIONS "LEVEL AND TREND OF MORTALITY SINCE 1950", NEW YORK, 1982.
197-200
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1982-1983
godina XX-XXI
Nurkovi, Safet
ISLAMI HIVZI "POPULISIA E KOSOVES STUDIM DEMOGRAFIK" PRISTINA, 1981.
200-201
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1982-1983
godina XX-XXI
Isljami, Hivzi
ANTE MARKOVI "DEMOGRAFSKI RAZVITAK HERCEGOVINE", MOSTAR, 1983.
201-204
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1982-1983
godina XX-XXI
Avramov, Dragana
ANELKA MILI, EVA BERKOVI, RUA PETROVI "DOMAINSTVO, PORODICA BRAK U
JUGOSLAVIJI", BEOGRAD, 1981.
204-206
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1982-1983
godina XX-XXI
Penev, Goran
MALAI JANEZ "SODOBNO OBNAVLJANJE PREBIVALSTVA IN DELOVNE SILE", LJUBLJANA, 1985.
206-212
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105
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OD
DU
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
VA
VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
AN
OV
VN
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1984-1985
godina XXII-XXIII
Rani, Miroljub
MIGRACIJE, URBANIZACIJA I PRIRODNO KRETANJE STANOVNITVA
MIGRATION, URBANIZATION AND NATURAL MOVEMENT OF THE POPULATION
5-13
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1984-1985
godina XXII-XXIII
INFORMISANOST I STAVOVI ADOLESCENATA O REGULACIJI FERTILITETA
KNOWLEDGE AND ATTITUDES OF ADOLESCENTS TOWARDS BIRTH CONTROL
14-27
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1984-1985
godina XXII-XXIII
Raevi, Miroslav
SKORANJI RAZVOJ POPULACIONE POLITIKE U SVETU
RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF POPULATION POLICY IN THE WORLD
28-36
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1984-1985
godina XXII-XXIII
POPULACIONA POLITIKA U POLITICI DRUTVENO-EKONOMSKOG RAZVOJA
POPULATION POLICY AS PART OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
37-41
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
106
B
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LIIO
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OBBJJA
AV
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OPPIISSU
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NO
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TV
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OD
DU
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AFFIIJJA
A RRA
AD
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VL
HU
ASSO
U ""SSTTA
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U PPE
U 11996633--22001122..
107
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1984-1985
godina XXII-XXIII
Malai, Janez
TIPOVI REPRODUKCIJE STANOVNITVA POPULACIONA POLITIKA U SFRJ
TYPES OF POPULATION REPRODUCTION AND POPULATION POLICY IN YUGOSLAVIA
42-51
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1984-1985
godina XXII-XXIII
Todorovi, Gordana
DEJSTVO AKTIVNOSTI I OBRAZOVANJA ENE NA NJENO RAANJE I STAV O NJEMU NA PODRUJIMA
SR SRBIJE
IMPACT OF WOMEN'S ACTIVITY AND EDUCATION ON FERTILITY AND HER ATTITUDES ON IT IN THE
REGIONS OF THE SR OF SERBIA
52-59
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1984-1985
godina XXII-XXIII
tampar, Dubravka
PLANIRANJE OBITELJI U SR HRVATSKOJ
FAMILY PLANNING IN SR OF CROATIA
60-63
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1984-1985
godina XXII-XXIII
Lalovi, Miroslav
PLODNOST STANOVNITVA I UESTALOST ABORTUSA U JUGOSLAVIJI
IMPACT OF ABORTION ON FERTILITY IN THE POPULATION OF YUGOSLAVIA
64-74
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1984-1985
godina XXII-XXIII
REPRODUKTIVNO PONAANJE URBANE POPULACIJE ENA DOLIH NA KLINIKU RADI
ARTIFICIJELNOG ABORTUSA
REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR OF URBAN WOMEN COMING TO THE CLINIC TO ABORT
74-91
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1984-1985
godina XXII-XXIII
Avramov, Dragana
OBRAZOVANJE ENA U JUGOSLAVIJI
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF YUGOSLAV WOMEN
92-98
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1984-1985
godina XXII-XXIII
Islami, Hivzi
ZAPAANJA O PREOBRAAJU I PROBLEMIMA SOCIJALNO-DEMOGRAFSKE STRUKTURE SEOSKOG
STANOVNITVA SAP KOSOVA
OBSERVATIONS ABOUT TRANSFORMATION AND PROBLEMS OF THE SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC
STRUCTURE OF RURAL POPULATIONS IN THE SAP OF KOSOVO
99-114
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1984-1985
godina XXII-XXIII
Penev, Goran, Goran Kosti
STARENJE I FEMINIZACIJA POLJOPRIVREDNOG STANOVNITVA SR SRBIJE BEZ POKRAJINA
AGEING AND FENIMIZATION OF AGRICULTURAL POPULATION IN SERBIA PROPER
115-129
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
rezime nema
108
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1984-1985
godina XXII-XXIII
Breznik, Radovan
STERILITET BRANIH PAROVA I NJEGOVI UZROCI
STERILITY OF MARRIED COUPLES AND ITS CAUSES
130-141
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/1984-1985
godina XXII-XXIII
Macura, Milo
OSVRT NA SVETSKU KONFERENCIJU O STANOVNITVU IZVETAJ I REZOLUCIJA, GRAD MEKSIKO,
6-14.8.1984.
147-180
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1986
godina XXIV
Petrovi, Rua
TIPOVl MORTALITETA PREMA POLU JUGOSLAVIJA 1953-1981.
TYPES OF MORTALITY ACCORDING TO SEX YUGOSLAVIA 1953-1981
11-27
k.r. nema
k.w. nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1986
godina XXIV
Krneta, Milorad
EFIKASNOST PREDVIANJA UKUPNOG STANOVNISTVA: ALTERNATIVNI PRISTUPI
THE TOTAL POPULATION ASSESSMENT EFFICIENCY: ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES
28-41
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1986
godina XXIV
Malai, Janez
PORODICE SA JEDNIM RODITELJEM U JUGOSLAVIJI
ONE PARENT FAMILIES IN YUGOSLAVIA
42-54
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
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110
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1986
godina XXIV
Beri, Berislav, Mladen Radojevi, Nada Topalski-Fite, Nada Baji
MODELI OPTIMALNE STAROSNE RAZLIKE MEU SUPRUNICIMA PRI SKLAPANJU BRAKA
MODELS OF OPTIMAL AGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SPOUSES AT THE TIME OF MARRIAGE
55-64
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/1986
godina XXIV
Mili, Anelka
DEMOGRAFSKI UINCI POLITIKE AKCIJE, MEUNARODNA KONFERENCIJA, BIELEFELD, ZAPADNA
NEMAKA, 11-14.3.1986.
65-71
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/1986
godina XXIV
Raevi, Miroslav
TREI SASTANAK RADNE GRUPE O EKONOMSKIM I SOCIJALNIM IMPLIKACIJAMA STARENJA
STANOVNITVA U EVROPSKIM ZEMLJAMA, BUDIMPETA, 14-16.04.1986.
74-79
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/komentar
broj 1-4/1986
godinaXXIV
Avramov, Dragana
OSVRT NA KEMBRIDKU GRUPU ZA ISTORIJU STANOVNITVA I DRUTVENE STRUKTURE
71-73
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/1986
godina XXIV
Raevi, Miroslav
TREI SASTANAK RADNE GRUPE O EKONOMSKIM I SOCIJALNIM IMPLIKACIJAMA STARENJA
STANOVNITVA U EVROPSKIM ZEMLJAMA, BUDIMPETA, 14-16.04.1986.
74-79
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1986
godina XXIV
Macura, Milo
JOHAN PETER SSMILCH, 1707-1767 "L'ORDRE DIVIN" AUX ORIGINES DE LA DEMOGRAPHIE
TRADUCTION ORIGINALE, AVEC DES TUDES ET COMMENTAIRS RASSEMBLS PAR JACQUELINE
HECHT, VOL I-III, PARIS, 1979, 1984
86-87
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1986
godina XXIV
THEODORE W. SCHULZ "ULAGANJE U LJUDE EKONOMIKA KVALITETE STANOVNITVA"
88-89
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1986
godina XXIV
Matkovi, Gordana
"WORLD POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT: CHALLANGES AND PROSPECTS", SYRACUSE, 1979
90-101
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1986
godina XXIV
Todorovi, Gordana
"STUDIES IN MORTALITY DIFFERENTIALS 2. LIFE TABLES OF THE POPULATION OF HUNGARY BY THE
POPULATION SIZE OF SETTLEMENTS - VII", BUDAPEST,1981
101-102
asopis Stanovnitvo
hronika
broj 1-4/1986
godina XXIV
Macura. Milo
DVADESETOGODINJICA EHOSLOVAKOG DEMOGRAFSKOG DRUTVA PRI EHOSLOVAKOJ
AKADEMIJI NAUKA
102-103
asopis Stanovnitvo
hronika
broj 1-4/1986
godina XXIV
Macura, Milo
EVROPSKA KONFERENCIJA O STANOVNITVU 1987. GODINE (PROBLEMI I IZGLEDI), JIVSKIL,
FINSKA, 11-16.06.1987.
104-105
asopis Stanovnitvo
hronika
broj 1-4/1986
godina XXIV
Lalovi, Miroslav
SAVETOVANJE O PRIPREMAMA, SPROVOENJU I IZVRAVANJU POPISA STANOVNITVA 1981.
GODINE
105-106
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1987-1988
godina XXV-XXVI
Avramov, Dragana
SAVREMENI POPULACIONI TRENDOVI U EVROPI
CONTEMPORARY POPULATION TRENDS IN EUROPE
1-20
k.r.: populacioni trendovi, nisko raanje, druga polovina XX veka, Evropa, evropski regioni
k.w.: population tendencies, fertility decline, second half of the XX century, Europe, Europe's sub-regions
Savremeni populacioni trendovi u Evropi, poev od pedesetih godina do danas, analizirani su na osnovu podataka tekue
demografske statistike o stopama nataliteta, ukupnog fertiliteta, nupcijaliteta, divorcijaliteta, mortaliteta. Zastupljena su dva
nivoa: a) Evropa kao celina i demografski nehomogeno podruje, b) posebno zajednike karakteristike i specifinosti
istone, zapadne i june Evrope. U zakljuku je istaknuto irenje pojave nedovoljnog obnavljanja stanovnitva i verovatno
predstojee opadanje ukupne populacije, a otvorena su pitanja o tome koji drutveni procesi indukuju i odravaju nisko
raanje, kao i da li se moe li oekivati promena smera dosadanjih tendencija i pod kojim uslovima? Na sve to nauka tek
treba da trai odgovore.
The author monitors contemporary population tendencies in Europe, with particular accent on fertility transition to below
replacement levels. Building the analytic approach around the premise that Europe is not a homogeneous region, but that
according to its demographic features it is neither a simple sum of national specificities, she pursues a sub-regional
approach. The author discusses main demographic features of eastern, western-northern, and southern Europe and stresses
the impact of changes in the reproductive behavior in the second half of the XX century. Eastern European countries
experienced a sharp fertility decline, often below replacement level, already in the 1950s, in western and northern Europe
fertility decline initiated in the 1960s, while in southern Europe the process is associated to changes in the 1970s and 1980s.
Difference in the timing of transitions to below replacement fertility are discussed within the framework of social, economic
and political specificities of Europe's sub-regions.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1987-1988
godina XXV-XXVI
Tasi, Dragoljub
SREDSTVA POPULACIONE POLITIKE
POPULATION POLICY MEASURES
21-34
k.r.: prouavanje stanovnitva, obnavljanje stanovnitva, mere populacione politike
k.w.: studying the population, renovating the population, population policy measures
Ovo je zavrno poglavlje neobjavljenog rada (od oko 150 stranica kucanih sa proredom) pod naslovom "Nae potomstvo". Rad je napisan
krajem pedesetih godina i razmatra savremene demografske prilike, traei reenja za racionalnu populacionu politiku.
U poglavljima koja se ovde ne objavljuju analizirana je savremena demografska situacija sa posebnim osvrtom na nedovoljno i
prekomerno raanje, i odgovarajue implikacije. U tim poglavljima govori se o ciljevima politike i merama koje se odnose na vaspitanje,
zdravlje, porodicu, ivotni standard i sl. U ovom poglavlju raspravlja se o metodama ekonomskog kondicioniranja reproduktivnog
ponaanja individua u cilju postizanja poeljnog nataliteta. U tom kontekstu, kritiki su razmotreni deji dodaci, i izloen je sistem
porodinih poreza to se predlau za lica u reproduktivnom dobu ivota, koja ne uestvuju, ili uestvuju nedovoljno u obnavljanju
stanovnitva.
U lanku koji sledi, Milo Macura govori o nastanku ovog rada, o autoru, njegovom doprinosu, prouavanju stanovnitva i o njegovim
pogledima na populacionu politiku.
This is a final chapter of the unpublished document (of about 150 pages typed with space) with the title "Our posterity". The document was
written at the end of fiftieths and examines the contemporary demographic conditions, searching the solutions for rational population
policy.
The chapters which are not published in here have analysed the contemporary demographic situation with a special review to insufficient
and excessive births and corresponding implications. These chapters are on the political goals and measures relating to upbringing, health,
family, standard of living and other. This chapter treatises methods of economic conditioning of reproductive behaviour of individuals in
attaining the goal of desirable birthrate. In that context, the children's allowances has been critically examined, as well as the system of
family's taxes has been proposed for the persons in reproductive age of life, who do not participate, or insufficiently participate in
renovating the population.
In the article that follows, Milo Macura is speaking on origin of this document, on the author, his contribution, studying the population
and on his view to population policy.
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lanak
broj 1-4/1987-1988
godina XXV-XXVI
Macura, Milo
UZ RAD DRAGOSLAVA TASIA O SREDSTVIMA POPULACIONE POLITIKE
CONTRIBUTION TO TASIC'S PAPER ON POPULATION POLICY MEASURES
35-41
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
nema rezime
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1987-1988
godina XXV-XXVI
Rani, Miroljub
PROSTORNI RAZMETAJ NARODA I NACIONALNIH MANJINA U JUGOSLAVIJI
SPARTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF ETHNIC GROUPS AND ETHNIC MINORITIES IN YUGOSLAVIA
43-74
k.r.: prostorni razmetaj, narodi, nacionalne manjine, podaci popisa stanovnitva 1981, Jugoslavija
k.w.: spartial distribution, ethnic groups, ethnic minorities, 1981 population census data, Yugoslavia
Sloenost etnikog sastava stanovnitva SFR Jugoslavije, kao posledica burnih istorijskih dogaaja, politikih prilika, preseljavanja
stanovnitva, u datim geografskim uslovima, prua mogunosti za razliita nauna istraivanja. U ovome radu izvorni oslonac su podaci
popisa stanovnitva iz 1981. godine, a cilj autora da, u celini i u pojedinim republikama kvantitativno i grafiki pokae prostornni
razvetaj naroda i brojnijih nacionalnih manjina.
U vreme pisanja ovoga teksta otpoeli su izvesni nagovetaji raspada zemlje i poremeaja drutvenog, ekonomskog i nacionalnog stanja,
pa su se autoru nametnule neke ocene i predvianja daljeg toka i posledica tih dogaaja.
On basis of the 1981 census data the author analyses the composition of Yugoslavia by ethnic groups and ethnic minorities. The first level
of analysis -according to republics, shows the global distribution of national populations of Serbs, Croats, Muslims, Slovens, Macedonians
and Montenegrins, and of ethnic minorities with population size above ten thousand. The second level of analysis - according to
communes (522) gives a detailed distribution of above ethnicities, by territorial units in which they are prevailing groups (50.1% - 70.0%)
in which groups constitute the majority (70% and above) and communes with mixed ethnic composition. In this section Albanian and
Hungarian ethnic minorities as most numerous ones, are monitored, as well as the population of Yugoslav ethnicity.
The picture of the ethnic composition of Yugoslavia, probably the last one for the country as a whole, shows marked heterogeneity formed
under the impact of original settlement and later changes due to the natural population growth, wars and continuous migratory movements.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1987-1988
godina XXV-XXVI
Matkovi, Gordana
PROBLEM NEZAPOSLENOSTI VISOKOOBRAZOVANIH LICA BEOGRADU
THE UNEMPLOYMENT PROBLEM OF THE MOST EDUCATED INDIVIDUALS IN BELGRADE
75-90
k.r.: nezaposlenost, visokoobrazovana lica, 1970-te, Beograd
k.w.:unemployment, highly-educated persons, 1970s, Belgrade
U radu je analiziran problem nezaposlenosti visokoobrazovanih lica u Beogradu koji nastaje tokom sedamdesetih godina. Od 1971. do
1984. godine nezaposlenost visokoobrazovanih lica poveala se od 700 na 7217 lica, po izuzetno visokoj prosenoj godinjoj stopi od
19,7%, znatno bre od ukupne nezaposlenosti, to ukazuje na pogoranje poloaja najobrazovanijih lica koja trae zaposlenje. Analiza
stopa nezaposlenosti i tendencija izjednaavanja prosenog broja meseci ekanja na posao pokazuju da visoko obrazovanje ne donosi
privilegije ni u pogledu nivoa, ni u pogledu duine trajanja nezaposlenosti.
The unemployment problem of the most educated individuals in Belgrade has started during the seventies, becoming more significant and
serious over the years. Although this category has not been more threatened than other, dynamic changes, structural characteristics and
economically and psychology consequences are very indicative and they reacquire the analysis of the problem.
From the 1971. until 1984. the number of the highly educated unemployed persons grow from 700 to 7217, with an average growth rate of
19,7% per year. It was growing much faster than unemployment as a whole, which indicates that the position of the highly educated
persons worsened. Analysis of the specific unemployment rates and the tendency of the equalizing of the period without job, show that
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high education does not bring the privileges.

Community expenditures, the time lag between the costs and its effects, under utilization and the loss of the potential knowledge are only
one part of the economy consequences concerning this problem. Unrealized professional aspirations and public status, small chances for
getting another qualification, and late age when a person is looking for a job, beside the existential threat is very heavy burden for the most
educated individuals without the job.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1987-1988
godina XXV-XXVI
Petrovi, Rua
PRIRODNI PRIRATAJ STANOVNITVA SELA RITOPEK 1915-1965.
NATURAL POPULATION GROWTH OF THE VILLAGE OF RITOPEK 1915-1965
91-100
k.r.: seosko stanovnitvo, prirodni prirataj, selo Ritopek
k.w.: rural population, natural growth, Ritopek village
Podaci o roenim i umrlim arhive Crkve i Mesne kancelarije su osnova posmatranja prirodnog obnavljanja u Ritopeku, malom selu u
blizini Beograda. U kretanju broja roenih i umrlih ima est etapa, od Prvog svetskog rata do vremena 1950. nadalje. U tri vremenske
take javlja se negativan prirodni prirataj, Prvi svetski rat, 1939. godina, Drugi svetski rat, pojedine godine od 1962. nadalje. Opta
tendencija prirodnog prirataja je opadanje, mada presecano skokovima u dva poratna kompenzaciona perioda.
The author makes use of church archives and local administrative registers to analyze births and deaths during the 1915-1965 period in the
rural settlement located 20 kilometers from Belgrade. She stresses the marked influence of the First and Second World War on the
population dynamics. The general tendency, although interrupted by the post-war compensatory periods, is that of continuous decline in
natural growth. Very low growth and population decline occurred already in the 1935-39 period. During the observed half century the
decline in birth rate is sharper than the mortality decline, and as of 1950s population growth is stagnant although the negative natural
growth is compensated by modest immigration. Changes of reproductive behavior were manifested before the outbreak of the Second
World War and became more radical in the aftermath period. Similarly, changes in mortality were marked. In the beginning of the period
under observation children below 9 accounted for two thirds of deceased, while at the end of the observed period two thirds of deceased
were in the age group above 70. Although it is a very small population, the analysis enables insight into effects of historical events and
changes in the way of life that have affected population reproduction.
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/1987-1988
godina XXV-XXVI
Friganovi, Mladen
O POTREBI ZA FUNDAMENTALNIM DEMOGRAFSKIM ISTRAIVANJIMA
111-113
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/1987-1988
godina XXV-XXVI
Raduki, Nada
OSVRT NA NAUNI SKUP O MIGRACIJAMA STANOVNITVA, BEOGRAD, 21-22.12.1987.
113-116
asopis Stanovnitvo
hronika
broj 1-4/1987-1988
godina XXV-XXVI
MESTO DEMOGRAFIJE U DRUTVENIM ZNANOSTIMA
117-126
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asopis Stanovnitvo
hronika
broj 1-4/1987-1988
godina XXV-XXVI
Friganovi, Mladen
NASTAVA DEMOGRAFIJE NA FAKULTETIMA U JUGOSLAVIJI
126-131
asopis Stanovnitvo
hronika
broj 1-4/1987-1988
godina XXV-XXVI
Friganovi, Mladen, Miroslav Raevi, Zlata Grebo
DISKUSIJA I ZAKLJUCI SA INTERKATEDARSKOG SASTANKA O NASTAVI DEMOGRAFIJE NA
FAKULTETIMA U SFR JUGOSLAVIJI, ZAGREB, 24. XI 1988.
131-142
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1987-1988
godina XXV-XXVI
C. ALLISON McINTOSH "POPULATION POLICY IN WESTERN EUROPE: RESPONSES TO LOW FERTILITY
IN FRANCE, SWEDEN AND WEST GERMANY"
143-146
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1987-1988
godina XXV-XXVI
Malai, Janez
ZDENEK PAVLIK, JITKA RYCHTERIKOVA, ALENA UBRTOVA "ZAKLADY DEMOGRAFIE", PRAHA, 1986
146-149
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1987-1988
godina XXV-XXVI
Macura, Milo
BINAK MAARAJ "EKONOMSKA AKTIVNOST STANOVNITVA SAP KOSOVA"
149-152
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1987-1988
godina XXV-XXVI
Maloku, Sherif
HIVZI ISLAMI "FSHATI I KOSOVES"
152-154
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1989,1-2/1990
godina XXVII-XXVIII
Breznik, Duan
NEKE DEMOGRAFSKE KARAKTERISTIKE SMRTNOSTI STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE
SOME DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF MORTALITY OF YUGOSLAV POPULATION
7-32
k.r.: smrtnost stanovnitva, smrtnost odojadi, Jugoslavija
k.w.: population mortality, infant mortality,Yugoslavia
I u Jugoslaviji je u posleratnom periodu dolo do velikog opadanja smrtnosti stanovnitva, zatim smanjenja smrtnosti odojadi, ali i
do izjednaavanja nivoa mortaliteta izmeu podruja. Porast srednjeg trajanja ivota novoroenih bio je najvei kod stanovnitva
podruja koja su neposredno posle rata imala najviu smrtnost. Mnogi su problemi jo uvek prisutni, od kojih se istie visoka
smrtnost odojadi na nekim podrujima, sve vee razlike u mortalitetu mukog i enskog stanovnitva, zaostajanje u pogledu
mortaliteta starijeg sredovenog i starog stanovnitva, relativno visoke stope nasilnih smrti (nesreni sluajevi, samoubistva),
relativno visoki ekonomski i drugi gubici usled morbiditeta i invaliditeta i drugo. U ovom radu panja e biti posveena najvanijim
demografskim karakteristikama mortaliteta.
nema engleski rezime
QUELQUES CARACTRISTIQUES DMOGRAPHIQUES DE LA MORTALIT DE LA POPULATION YOUGOSLAVE: En
article on a discut des changements de la mortalit d'aprs l'ge et le sexe en Yougoslavie dans la priode l950-l989, puis des dcs
violents (des accidents, des suicides) aussi d'aprs l'ge et le sexe, ainsi que des dcs par cause, la mortalit infantile et la mortalit
differentielle (d'aprs l'instruction, l'ge et le sexe; d'aprs la nationalit thnique; la mortalit de la population agricole et nonagricole et la mortalit rurale et urbaine). La plupart des analyses est donne sur le niveau rgional.
L'auteur donne quelques conclusions:
- les diffrences dans la mortalit parmi les rgions ont diminu;
- la surmortalit masculine s'accroit (c'est valable surtout pour les rgions plus developpes);
- la diminution de la mortalit se trouve moins accentue d'aprs l970 (c'est valable surtout pour la population plus ge);
- la mortalit infantile reste toujours plus haute dans les rgions moins developpes;
- la mortalit diffrentielle analyse (l'instruction, la nationalit thnique, pour la population agricole et non-agricole et pour la
population urbaine et rurale) reste d'une certaine importance, mais elle se trouve en diminuation.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1989,1-2/1990
godina XXVII-XXVIII
Matkovi, Gordana
STARENJE EKONOMSKI AKTIVNOG STANOVNITVA NA PODRUJU SR SRBIJE VAN TERITORIJE SAP
AGEING OF ECONOMICALY ACTIVE POPULATION IN SERBIA PROPER
33-44
k.r.: starenje stanovnitva, radna snaga, Srbija bez pokrajina
k.w.: population ageing, labour force, Serbia proper
srpski rezime nema
Ageing of the labour force in Serbia Proper has been influenced by the various demographic and socioeconomic factors, among them
increasing participation of women, development of education and social security sistem and decreasing of agricultural population were
the most important. In the future, process will be faster, and much more influenced by the demographic factors. Continuation of below
replacement level of fertility and prolongation of expectation of life will increase the number and the share of the old population. Their
participation rates will depend on the labor force demand, retairment laws and the "better off" state of the entire population. If
socioekonomic factors remain unchanged, in the year 2015. demographic factors would increase the share of the old economicaly active
population from 27,0% (1981.) to 40,8%. Economic outcome of this process must be taken under the consideration.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1989,1-2/1990
godina XXVII-XXVIII
Raduki, Nada
NEKE DETERMINANTE FERTILITETA POLJOPRIVREDNOG STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE
SOME DETERMINANTS OF AGRICULTURAL POPULATION'S FERTILITY IN YUGOSLAVIA
45-50
k.r.: poljoprivredno stanovnitvo, fertilitet, Jugoslavija
k.w.: agricultural population, fertility, Yugoslavia
srpski rezime nema
After the Second World War the enormons socio-economic, demographic and cultural changes occured in Yugoslavia: industrialization
and urbanization of society, the development of secondary and tertiary sectors, rapid process of education, etc.
Those process resulted in the transfer of labour force and population from agricultural to non-agricultural activites.This the transfer had a
numerous consequences: decreasing of agricultural and increase non-agricultural population, the aging and feminisation of agricultural
population, decreasing of the most fertility age's group of women (from 20 to 39 age) and decreasing of natality.
The author analyses differential fertility of the non-agricultural and agriculltural population as well as fertility of active and supported
willage womens. Also, the article describes: the change of women's reprodactive behaviour, the use of contraceptive on the level of fertility
of agricultural population, interrelationships of birth control and family size (number of live-born children) and attitudes of the agricultural
population about ideal number of children in the family, abortions and birth control.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1989, 1-2/1990
godina XXVII-XXVIII
Petrovi, Mina
HIPOTETINA RAZMATRANJA O ZNAAJU STANOVANJA KAO DETERMINANTE FERTILITETA
HIPOTETICAL CONSIDERATION ON HOUSING CONDITIONS AS A DETERMINANT OF FERTILITY
51-57
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1989,1-2/1990
godina XXVII-XXVIII
Rani, Miroljub
JEDNO RAZMILJANJE O REAVANJU DEMOGRAFSKIH PROBLEMA U SRBIJI
AN OPINION ABOUT POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS IN THE REPUBLIC OF
SERBIA
59-68
k.r.: demografski problemi, pravci drutvene akcije, Srbija
k.w.: demographic problems, directions of social action, Serbia
srpski rezime nema
After the interductory part in which examples illustrating the complexity of the demographic development in the Republic of Serbia
are given, the author identifies two groups of problems. The first one derives from the low fertility, below replacement generational
reproduction, the spreading of the phenomenon of negative natural growth and strong population aging that characterizes 83% of the
population, and high fertility, high natural increase and young age structure that distinguishes 17% of the population. The second
group of problems originates from the uncontrolled post war population migration. Under these the undesirable regional
disproportions in the spacial population distribution and in settlements and in the urbanization of the population, on the age and sex
and on other popualtion structures. The concept of demographic development based on the link between the vital demographic
events and population migration as social phenomenon, motivated the author to evaluate two directions of social action. One
direction, with pronatalist and antinatalist measures, should aim at the goal - family with three children. The second direction, that
would be based on the regional special plan of development should master the uncontrolled migrations, alleviate the high
concentrated urbanization, turn it into the decentralized type and thus achieve, among other goals, the favourable conditions for the
fulfilment of the first goal.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1989,1-2/1990
godina XXVII-XXVIII
Stojanovi, Branislav
RAZMETAJ I PROJEKCIJE STANOVNITVA SR SRBIJE
DISTRIBUTION AND PROJECTIONS OF POPULATION OF SERBIA
69-78
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
rezime nema
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1989,1-2/1990
godina XXVII-XXVIII
Miljani, Maja
ANALITIKI METOD PROJEKCIJA GRADSKOG STANOVNITVA. OSOBINE I PRIMENA
COHORT-COMPONENT METHOD FOR PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION
79-92
k.r. projekcije stanovnitva, analitiki metod, svetsko gradsko stanovnitvo, ukupno svetsko stanovnitvo
k.w. population projections, cohort-component method, world urban population, world total population
srpski rezime nema
The process of continuous growth of world total population and particularly faster urban population growth along with the possible
problems arising with, are becoming the most important task for demographers to make population projections, predictions and forecasts.
The topic of this paper was the implementation of the component method for projection of urban population and the survey of the main
advantages and disadvantages of the methodological basis and necessary data requirements. Among the others, the problem of fertility and
mortality assumption for the migratory population was emphasized as one which has not been solved by using the standard procedure. The
brief survey of the PC (PS) software for the population (total and urban) projections is given in the last part of the paper.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1989,1-2/1990
godina XXVII-XXVIII
Todorovi Gordana, Radoslav Stevanovi
PROJEKCIJE DEMOGRAFSKOG RAZVOJA BEOGRADA (1981-2011)
BELGRADE POPULATION PROJECTIONS (1981-2011)
93-106
k.r.: projekcije stanovnitva, analitiki metod, demografski razvoj, Beograd
k.w.: population projections, analytical method, demographic development, Belgrade
srpski rezime nema
Belgrade, the greatest city population agglomeration of Yugoslavia, is a very complex area for estabilishment of population
projections. Since these projections are an indispensable base for socialeconomic urban and other plans, the effort has been made by
this report to overcome some of these problems encountered during such a research.
Projections for each Belgrade municipality were made separately, where analytical (component) method was applied, based on
particular establishment of hypotheses on future changes of population movement componentes - fertility, mortality and migration.
As a foundation, the projection of the "closed" population was made (the population whose dynamics was based only on natural
movements) accordung to age and sex. By the same method, only using its shortened version, the projection of the "open" population
was made (the population which apart from the first two components is affected by migration as well). The basic year is 1981.
The results of the projections show that the population of Belgrade will increase from 1.470 thousand in 1981 to 1.878 thousand in
the year 2011, or for 408 thousand, where 120 thousand fall to natural population growth and 288 thousand are due to migration.
At the end report, projections by mathematical method - linear, exponential, and logarithmic extrapolation were given as control
series, for the total population of Belgrade region municipalities.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1989,1-2/1990
godina XXVII-XXVIII
ehaji, Jasmina
KARAKTERISTIKE POLNE I DOBNE STRUKTURE STANOVNITVA SA PODRUJA GRADA SARAJEVA
THE SEX AND AGE POPULATION STRUCTURE OF TEN MUNICIPALITIES OF SARAJEVO CITY TERRITORY
107-116
k.r.: stanovnitvo, polna struktura, starosna struktura, grad Sarajevo
k.w.: population, sex structure, age structure, Sarajevo city territory
srpski rezime nema
There are more women then men in ten municipalities of Sarajevo city territory i.e. the sex ratio (per 1000 females) was 970 in the year
1971 and 969 in 1981. There are more men among youth (0-19) and more women in the middle (20-59) and elderly.
The population of Sarajevo is getting older. So it belonged to type I (youth) in 1971 and type III (aging) in 1981. The popualtion of
Sarajevo's eight municipalities belonged to type III (aging) in 1981, one of them (Trnovo) belonged to type IV (old age) and one
municipalities (Hadii) belonged to type I (youth).
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1989, 1-2/1990
godina XVII-XXVIII
Raevi, Mirjana
SADRAJ I KVALITET PODATAKA O PREKIDU TRUDNOE
CONTENTS AND QUALITY OF ABORTION DATA
117-123
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
srpski rezime nema
In addition to the problem of large number of abortions, there are serious difficulties which refer to obtaining of relevant data such as: the
basic data about the number of legal abortions are not available for the long period of time; data referring to the marital status, number of
alive children and especially to previous abortions, officially registered number of spontaneous abortions, and data on mortality associated
with abortion are not fully reliable; category of "unmarked" abortions is relatively high etc. There are no legal or administrative obstacles
for the registration of abortions. The obstacles are obviously of the organizational nature. Also, the first link of chain of getting precise data
- nurse i.e. physician, finds filling of forms as unnecessary, imposed, additional obligation, not feeling the sense and not understanding the
importance of the data themselves. In the range of this kind of thinking, responsibility is formal. The best possibility for obtaining data on
abortions is the registration of each case in the institutions which perform abortions, but it should be done by a separated organizational
unit which should have this one, together with others, equal tasks.
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/1989,1-2/1990
godina XXVII-XXVIII
Petrovi, Mina
SEMINAR O SAVREMENIM DEMOGRAFSKIM TRENDOVIMA I IVOTNIM STILOVIMA U EVROPI,
STRAZBUR, 18-20.9.1990.
123-125
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/1989,1-2/1990
godina XXVII-XXVIII
Raevi, Mirjana
"OD ABORTUSA KA KONTRACEPCIJI", TBILISI, 10-13.10.1990. I DEKLARACIJA IZ TBILISIJA
127-129
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1989,1-2/1990
godina XXVII-XXVIII
Petrovi, Mina
VALENTINA BODROVA, RICHARD ANKER "WORKING WOMEN IN SOCIALIST COUNTRIES:
CONNECTION FERTILITY
131-134
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1989,1-2/1990
godina XXVII-XXVIII
IRA EMKE- POULOPOULOS " PROBLEMS OF EMIGRATION AND RETURN MIGRATION. THE CASE OF
GREECE, 1890-1986"
135-136
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asopis Stanovnitvo
povodi
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
Macura, Milo
DR DUANU BREZNIKU, DEMOGRAFU I STATISTIARU POVODOM SEDAMDESETOGODINJICE
IVOTA
3-10
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
Breznik, Duan
REPRODUKCIJA STANOVNITVA SRBIJE I SLOVENIJE
REPRODUCTION OF POPULATION OF SERBIA AND SLOVENIA
11-44
k.r.: reprodukcije stanovnitva Srbija bez pokrajina, Slovenija
k.w.: population reproduction, Serbia proper, Slovenia
Rad predstavlja deo ire studije Centra za demografska istraivanja "inioci odravanja fertiliteta iznad, odnosno oko nivoa obnavljanja
stanovnitva u SR Sloveniji". U radu su proueni trendovi i inioci fertiliteta stanovnitva Slovenije u poslednjih nekoliko decenija, u
toku kojih se fertilitet stanovnitva u Sloveniji zadrao na nivou koji obezbeuje obnavljanje stanovnitva (do 1981. godine), mada je
sekularno opadanje fertiliteta u Sloveniji zaeto ranije nego u Srbiji, dok je u Srbiji na nivou koji ve preko dve decenije nije dovoljan za
normalno obnavljanje stanovnitva. Izraunavanje je uraeno komparativno (Srbija bez pokrajina i Slovenija).
Nakon objavljivanja spomenute studije (tj. posle 1984. godine) procesi u pogledu reprodukcije stanovnitva Srbije i Slovenije su
nastavljeni prema tendencijama koje je autori nasluivali. Opadanje nataliteta je nastavljeno (do 1990. godine), dok stope mortaliteta
stagniraju, ili lagano rastu usled procesa starenja stanovnitva.
engleski rezime nema
REPRODUCTION DE LA POPULATION EN SERBIE ET EN SLOVNIE: La population de la Serbie (sans territoires des rgions
Vovodine et Kosovo) et de la Slovnie se trouvent aujour-d'hui la fin de la transition dmographique. La natalit et la mortalit sont sur
un niveau deja trs bas. Le taux de la natalit tait avant la transition (avant 1880 an) dans les rgions mentionnes lev. Cependant, la
natalit tait en Slovnie un peu plus basse, pareil aux autres populations du l'Ouest et d'Europe central cause d'un nombre lev des
mariages conclus relativement tard, puis cause des taux levs de celibat (surtout chez les femmes), ainsi qu'en liaison avec les
consquences des migrations etc. En Serbie, au contraire, la population a contract le marriage en jeun ge en liaison adequate de la
structure des mnages, puis cause des possibilits pour l'elargissement des surfaces agricoles etc.
La diminuation de la mortalit au cours de la transition tait plus lente et avec quelques exceptions elle se passait avant la diminuation de la
natalit. Aussi, la diminuation de la natalit tait en Slovnie lente, mais plus graduelle et parallle avec la mortalit. En Serbie, ce
processus n'tait pas semblable. Le taux de la natalite commenait diminuer plus tard et tait plus vit. L'accroissement naturel restait plus
longue sur un niveau lev. La reproduction nette en Serbie tait si basse en derniers trois decennies, que la reproduction simple de
population n'tait plus assur c'est en Slovnie dpuis 1981 an.
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Quant la migration, la Slovnie tait jusqu' 1955 an un pays d'emigration , tandis que la Serbie est dj depuis longtemps un pays
d'imigration .
La resultante des components du mouvement de la population c'est--dire l'accrossement de la population dans la priode de la transition
tait plus intensive en Serbie en comparation avec la Slovnie.
Le texte suivant de l'article est consacr l'tude de la fcondit de la population surtout l'analyse de la fcondit differentielle, puis aux
problemes du contrle des naissances (la pratique des avortements et la contraception). Les deux methodes, l'analyse du moment et
l'analyse des cohortes taient utilises par l'auteur.
D'aprs l'auteur, les facteurs de base qui ont influenc des habitudes des femmes et des hommes en ce qui concerne le nombre des enfants
dans la famille, rpresentent des changements divers de la vie, surtout en liaison avec le developopment socio-conomique
(industralisation avec urbanisation), l'accrossement du niveau de vie, la dissolution de la vie patriarcale, le changement de l'tat de la
femme dans la vie conomique, culturelle, politique etc.,
l'accrossement de l'instruction scolaire, la diminuation da la mortalit infantile et des petits enfants, l'utilisation plus intensive de la
rgulation des naissances, la dure plus longue des preocupations des parents en ce qui concerne les enfants , un plus grand degr des
connaissances sur les qustions de la reproduction humaine, l'xistance toujours plus large de l'assurance pour les invalides, les vieux et
pour les cas sociales etc . Outre cela, il faut tre en vue aussi les autres facteurs comme p.e. l'inluence de la rligion, des changements en ce
qui concerne l'ideologie pronataliste etc.
L'auteur consacre en article un grand part du texte la priode de l'aprs transition, c'est--dire au temps de la fcondit dj trs basse dans
la Slovnie et en Serbie. On a discut surtout les diffrences dans le processus des changements, ainsi que des changements futurs
possibles. On attend une diminuation des differences.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
Vertheimer-Baleti, Alica
PROBLEMI DETERMINACIJE POSTTRANZICIJSKE ETAPE U RAZVOJU STANOVNITVA
PROBLEMS OF DETERMINATION OF THE POSTTRANSITIONAL STAGE IN THE DEMOGRAPHIC
DEVELOPMENT
45-55
k.r.: stanovnitvo, tranzicija, posttranzicijska etapa, razvoj stanovnitva
k.w.: population, transition, posttransitional stage, demographic development
U lanku se raspravlja o posttranzicijskoj etapi razvoja stanovnitva, imajui uglavnom u vidu promene u komponentama kretanja
stanovnitva u zemljama zapadne i severozapadne Evrope. Prema demografsko-statistikim kriterijima, onaj reim reprodukcije u kojoj je
natalitet pao na nizak nivo priblino nivou mortaliteta formalno odgovara postranzicijskom reimu reprodukcije. Prema autoru, pomenuti
kriterijum nije dovoljan za navedenu periodizaciju, ve je neophodno da se imaju u vidu i sledei indikatori: a) vremensko razdoblje
(dovoljno dugo); b) eksterni inioci; c) tendencija uravnoteenja komponenti prirodnog kretanja (nataliteta i mortaliteta) i d) nivo
ekonomskog razvoja i karakteristike socijalno-ekonomske strukture stanovnitva. U lanku se istie neophodnost razgranienja izmeu
kasne tranzicije (kao podetape), kada su natalitet i mortalitet takoe niski, i posttranzicijske etape, kada su ispunjeni i pomenuti
demografski i drutveno-ekonomski indikatori (od a do d).
The subject of this paper is theoretico-methodological one. It treats problems of delimitation of the posttransitional stage the preceeding
late transitional substage. The question is how to determinite the begining of the posttransitional stage according in the transition theory
commonly accepted, demographical - statistical criterion, i.e. the criterion which relates characteristic numerical level of crude birth and
death to determinite the posttransitional stage. Beside numerical indicators of vital rates, some additional criteria are presented as necessary
ones, like the level and structure of the economy and socio-economic of population. The importance of specfic conditions of development
and environment, which should be specified for any particular country is emphasised in order to determine the begining of the
posttransitional stage.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
Todorovi, Gordana
REPRODUKCIJA I PLODNOST STANOVNITVA SRBIJE
REPRODUCTION AND FERTILITY IN SERBIA
57-87
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
postoji srpski apstakt
postoji dui engleski rezime
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
Tefik, Basha
OSNOVNA OBELEJA FERTILITETA STANOVNITVA KOSOVA
CHARACTERISTICS OF FERTILITY IN KOSOVO
89-100
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
postoji srpski apstrakt
engleski rezime nema
LES CARACTERISTIQUES DE BASE DE FERTILITET DE LA POPULATION DE KOSOVA: Le developpement dmogrphiques
possde ses consquences et ses spcifiques lesqulles sont conditionnes par des circonstances difficiles historiques, politiques,
conomiques, culturelles et de la reproduction biologique.
La fertilitet de la femmele se trouve dans la voie transitive et dans le plus haut degr , mais marque une tendance de baisse. La natalit a
dj marqu une baisse de 42.7% en l'an 1989, et avec cela s'tait diminu l'escale de la fertilit de 214.4 en mille / qui tait en 1950/ sur
117.7 en 1989. Une telle tendance de baisse a marqu l'escale spcifique dans tous les groupes et tous les ages.
La baisse de fertilit dans les dernires annes tait lie par l'amlioration des conditions matrielles et par le standard de la vie,
l'amlioration des conditions sanitaires, ducatives et la structure conomique de la population. Cette tendance de baisse continue d'un
dynamisme de la transformation gnrale de l'ambiance de Kosova.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1990,1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
oi, Duan
EMA RELEVANTNIH FAKTORA DEMOGRAFSKOG PREOBRAAJA NA PRIMERU VOJVODINE
SCHEME OF RELEVANT FACTORS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION WITH THE EXAMPLE OF
POPULATION OF VOJVODINA
101-112
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
Reprodukciju stanovnitva Vojvodine autor povezuje sa teorijom demografske tranzicije. Meutim ne sa pojednostavljeno
shvaenom, koja insistira samo na nekim vidljivim promenama u demografskom karakteristikama, ve sa kompleksnom shvaenom
teorijom demografske tranzicije koja insistira na promenama celokupne socijalne sredine, pa i njenim okvirima i demogrsfkim
karakteristikama.
Da bi izrazio tu kompleksnost, autor predlae da se reprodukcija stanovnitva posmatra na tri nivoa optosti. Na prvom nivou bi bile
promenjene individualne karakteristike, ali posmatrane na agregatnom planu, na nivou stanovnitva. Na drugom nivou bi se
posmatrale promene na nivou drutvenih institucija (porodica, domainstvo, naselje itd.), a na treem promene socijalne sredine u
celini, dakle drutva u celini koje imaju uticaja na repordukciju stanovnitva.
Demografske pokazatelje razvitka stanovnitva Vojvodine autor prikazuje kroz emu relevantnih faktora, naravno sa aspekta teorije
demografske tranzicije i sa aspekta pristupanosti takvih podataka. Ova ema je neophpdan element za sagledavanje strukturalnih
promena u reprodukciji stanovnitva, to predstavlja osnovu za teoriju o drugoj demografskoj tranziciji. Meutim, za takvu analizu
ne raspolae se jo uvek adekvatnim podacima.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
uriev, Aleksandar
NATALITET, REPRODUKCIJA I POPULACIONA POLITIKA U REPUBLICI MAKEDONIJI
NATALITY, REPRODUCTION AND POLICY OF THE POPULATION IN MACEDONIA
113-124
k.r.: natalitet, populaciona reprodukcija, populaciona politika, Makedonija
k.w.: natality, population reproduction, population policy, Macedonia
Razmatrajui promene nivoa nataliteta u Makedoniji od 1950. do 1990. godine autor ukazuje da je i pored velikog opadanja stopa
raanja ukupnog stanovnitva najvia meu jugoslovenskim republikama (16.9 promila u 1990. godini).
Osnovna karakteristika sadanjeg nataliteta u Makedoniji je postojanje velikih razlika po optinama (u rasponu od 1:3), koje su tesnoj
korelaciji sa nacionalnim sastavom njihovog stanovnitva. Neto stopa reprodukcije makedonskog stanovnitva je ve ispod nivoa koji
obezbeuje njegovu prostu reprodukciju, dok kod albanskog, turskog i romskog stanovnitva ona omoguava iroku reprodukciju.
Autor predlae da se usvojena populacija politike proiri i na druge domene - na migracije, redistribuciju stanovnitva i dr., odnosno da
se izradi kompleksna populaciona politika, jer su demografski procesi meusobno povezani. On, takoe, upozorava da mere i aktivnosti
ove politike treba priblino pripremati i upotpunjavati, s obzirom na njihovu delikatnost i potrebu za diferencijalnu primenu.
In this paper, firstly, changes of the natality level in the Republic Macedonia from 1950 to 1990 are treated, with special attention to
tendences expressed during last years. Secondly, differences in the natality by communes and their urban and rural settlements are
presented. Then, the population reproduction as well as its factors are analysed. Finally, the question of the population policy, as a factor of
the society influence to the natality and reproduction, is considered.
The author brings to light the following more important facts:
1. During the past 40 years there has been a decrease of the birth rate of the total population from 40.3 to 16.9 per 1000 promils, of the
death rate from 14.7 to 7.0 per 1000 and of the natural increase rate from 25.6 to 9.9 per 1000. But, the birth rate is still on the highest level
among the republics in Yugoslavia and is necessary its futher decrease.
2. The basic characteristics of the present natality in the Macedonia is the existance of great differences among its communes (in an
interval of 1:3), which are in a close correlation with the population structure by nationalities. That results in unfavou rable demographic
and socio-economic consequences.
3. The net reproduction rate of the macedonian population is already below the level which ensures its simple reproduction, while for the
albanian, turkich and gipsi population it enables their large reproduction.
The author proposes that the adopted population policy should be enlarged to other domains - to migration, population redistribution,
etc,that is to build a complete population policy, because demographic processes are interrelated. He, also, warns that policy measures and
activities should carefully be prepared and improved, due to their delicacy and need for a differential application.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
Malai, Janez
VEROVATNOA POVEANJA PORODICE U ANALIZI FERTILITETA
PROBABILITY OF FAMILY GROWTH IN FERTILITY ANALYSIS
125-135
k.r.: poveanje porodice, verovatnoa, fertilitet
k.w.: family growth, probability, fertility
U savremenom tipu reprodukcije stanovnitva bitno se promenila uloga starosti kao determinante fertiliteta. Primarnu ulogu dobio je
dostignuti broj dece u porodici te planovi, elje i ideali porodice o brojnosti dece. U radu autor analizira longitudinalne i transverzalne
verovatnoe poveanja porodice u Sloveniji, Hrvatskoj, Vojvodini, Srbiji van pokrajina i Italiji. Izabrana podruja slue ilustraciji prilika u
savremenom nainu reprodukcije. Transverzalne verovatnoe poveanja porodice za Sloveniju, Vojvodinu i Italiju osnova su za
konstrukciju tablica fertiliteta na osnovu verovatnoa poveanja porodice. U svim primerima verovatnoe poveanja porodice i tablice
fertiliteta pokazuju koncentraciju dece u porodicama sa jednim detetom i sa dvoje dece te veliko snienje broja i udela porodica sa troje i
vie dece.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
Petrovi, Rua
OBRAZOVANJE RODITELJA I BROJ DECE U PORODICI
PARENT'S EDUCATION AND NUMBER OF CHILDREN
137-145
k.r.: nivo reprodukcije kolska sprema, Republika Srbija
k.w.: reproduction level, education, Republic of Serbia
Na osnovu podataka popisa 1981. o porodicama data je analiza uticaja kolske spreme oba roditelja na broja raanja u braku/porodici.
Pokazalo se da kolska sprema mua ima manji znaaj na neraanje u braku nego kolska sprema ene. Veza vieg obrazovanja i nie
reprodukcije postoji i kod majki i kod oeva, ali uz odreene specifinosti. Kod kolovanih ena uticaj kolovanosti mua na broj raanja
je veoma mali, a kod nekolovanih ena taj je uticaj znatno jai.
Razmatranje tri populaciona dela Srbije: centralnog dela, Vojvodine i Kosova, sa veoma razliitim nivoom reprodukcije u celini
(proseni broj raanja 2.01; 1.97 i 3.86) pokazuje da obrazovanje deluje istosmerno u populacijama razliitog nivoa obrazovanja
(proseno 8.7 godina kolovanja u Vojvodini, 7.5 u centralnoj Srbiji, 5.3 godina u Kosovu). Najpre, u celini, ukoliko je prosena
kolovanost via broj raanja u braku je nii, a potom po pojedinim grupama kolske spreme. Razlika u prosenom broju dece izmeu
drutva sa visokom i niskom reprodukcijom je neto blae izraena kod kolovanog, a naglaeno kod nekolovanog stanovnitva.
Direktni uticaj obrazovanja u neobrazovanom drutvu uslovljava niu reprodukciju kolovanog stanovnitva, ali je ona od malog znaaja
za opti nivo reprodukcije. U drutvu sa viim nivoom kolovanosti ono deluje i indirektno, sniavajui reprodukciju nekolovanih preko
uticaja sredine.

asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
Penev, Goran
MEUZAVISNOST FERTILITETA I PONUDE RADNE SNAGE
INTERRELATION OF FERTILITY AND SUPPLY OF LABOUR FORCE
147-158
k.r.: stanovnitvo, fertilitet, ekonomska aktivnost, radna snaga
k.w.: population, fertility, economic activity, labour force
U radu su razmotreni odnosi meuzavisnosti koje postoje izmeu fertiliteta i ponude radne snage. Najpre je ukazano na uticaj koji
fertilitet vri na ponudu radne snage. Analizirano je odloeno (preko uticaja na brojnost ulazeih genaracija) i trenutno dejstvo fertiliteta
(preko uticaja prihvaenog reproduktivnog modela na model ekonomske aktivnosti ena) na ponudu radne snage. Autor naglaava i
viestruki uticaj (direktno i indirektno dejstvo) koji vri ekonomska aktivnost na fertilitet. Razmatran je i razliit uticaj koji imaju
pojedini oblici aktivnosti (nezaposlenost i zaposlenost) na nivo fertiliteta, kao i razlike koje s tim u vezi postoje izmeu niskonatalitetnih
i visokonatalitetnih podruja.
The paper examines interdependence of fertility and the supply of labour force by first pointing to the impact of the former on the latter. It
analyzes the lagged (via the impact on the number of incoming generations) versus the immediate impact of fertility (via the impact of the
adopted reproduction model on the model of economic activity of women) on the supply of labour force. The author points to the manifold
impact ( both direct and indirect) of economic activity on fertility. In addition, he evaluates the impact of different forms of activity
(employment and unemployment) on the fertility level as well as the ensuing differences between the low and high fertility regions.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
Spasovski, Milena, Marina Janji
DEMOGRAFSKI RAZVOJ I POPULACIONI POTENCIJALI PLANINSKE OBLASTI I
OBLASTI NIZIJA I POBRA JUGOSLAVIJE
DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT AND POPULATION POTENTIALS OF THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS AND
LOWLAND REGIONS OF YUGOSLAVIA
159-175
k.r.: stanovnitvo, demografski razvoj, planinske oblasti, nizija, Jugoslavija
k.w.: population, demographic development, mountain regions, lowland regions, Yugoslavia
U radu su analizirane najvanije demografske karakteristike stanovnitva planinske oblasti i oblasti nizija i pobra Jugoslavije u periodu
1948-1981. Visinska linija razgranienja je izohipsa od 500 m. U planinske oblasti svrstane su oblasti koje imaju vie od 50% teritorije
iznad 500 m nadmorske visine.
Na planinske oblasti dolazi 44,8%, a na niziju i pobra 55,2% povrine Jugoslavije. Udeo broja stanovnika ovih delova Jugoslavije bio je
1981. 30,5% i 69,5%. Autori konstatuju da je koncentracija stanovnitva na teritoriji ispod 500 m nadmorske visine bila srazmerno znatno
vea nego u planinskoj oblasti. U radu je glavna panja posveena populacionim potencijalima prouavanih oblasti. Konstatovano je da je
radno sposobno stanovnitvo, koje predstavlja demografski okvir formiranja radne snage, znatno manje koncentrovano u planinskoj nego u
nizijskoj oblasti.
With a view to evaluating population potentials and demographic development of the regions of higher and lower altitudes in Yugoslavia,
there was effected the division of its geospace in two regions, to wit: region of lowland and hilly terrains with altitudes up to 500m and the
mountainous region with altitudes above 500m. The region of lowlands and hilly terrains comprises 55.2% of the territory and 57.1 of
inhabited places and the mountainous region 44,8% of the territory and 42.9% pof inhabited places of Yugoslavia.
The total of population potentials of these geospatial wholes are not identical to the relation of their areas. Thus, the mountainous region
absorbed, according to the census of 1981, 30.5% of the total population, 25,7% of households, 26.0% of urban population and 35.1% of
rural population of Yugoslavia. At the same time, in the mountainous region there were 31.8% of agricultural population, 31.4% of nonagricultural population, 27.0% of the active population, 29.4% of population fit for work, 37.3 of young population (0-9 years) and 25.9%
of old population (65 years and older) population of Yugoslavia. Thes shows that the population potentials are considerably higher in the
region of lowlands and hilly terrains, where about two thirds of population with diferent structural characteristics are concentrated.
Demographic development of population of higher and lower altitudes is differentiated by many characteristics. Thus are still evident a
higher natural increase in the population and a considerable share of the mountainous regin in total increase in the population of
Yugoslavia and the marked emigrational character of the latter. The mountainous regoin is also characterized by a slover process of
urbanization and disagrarizatio, a lower degres of economic activity, a pooer utilization of the working contingent and comparatively
slower process of ageing of population in relation to the region of lowlands and hilly terrains.
The above enumerated diferences in the demographic development of the mountainous region and the region of lowlands and hilly terrains
are of lower volume and intensity in comparasion ith the regional diffarentiation of demographic processes in ondividual republics and
provinces in which are predominant ethnical groups. Hence a specific demographic development of individual ethnical groups has
determined to a considerble degree the spatio-demographic regionalization of Yugoslavia, in relation to above mentioned differenciations
of the development of the population in regions with higher and lower altitudes.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
Pushka, Asllan
PORAST STANOVNITVA KOSOVSKIH GRADOVA
POPULATION GROWTH IN THE CITIES OF KOSOVO PROVINCE
177-188
k.r.: porast stanovnitva, gradska populacija, Pokrajina Kosovo,
k.w.: population growth, city population, Kosovo province
Autor je pokuao sagledati sve inioce koji su delovali ili deluju na prostoru Kosova i ine ovaj prostor izuzetnim u Jugoslaviji, pa i u
Evropi, u pogledu visokih normi reprodukcije stanovnitva. Fenomen Kosova, utoliko je interesantniji to se razvoj populacije u poslednjih
pola veka znaajno razlikuju od razvoja populaciji u susednoj Albaniji. Istorijat razvoja populacije Kosova posle Drugog svetskog rata u
kontekstu relevantnih faktora prikazan je u irokom zahvatu raznovrsnih injenica sa nastojanjem da se precizno numeriki izraze bitni
odnosi i rezultujui efekti. Teite rada je stavljeno na razvoj gradske populacije u kome se najizrazitije reflektuje snana dinamika
posleratnog kako biolokog tako i mehanikog kretanja stanovnitva na prostoru Kosova. Autor je identifikovao glavne uticaje procesa
industrijalizacije na rast kosovskih gradova. Proces industrijalizacije nije bio ravnomeran niti je uniformno zahvatio sve gradove (podruja)
Kosova. Autor je ukazao na sve razlike u pogledu populacionog rasta gradova i poveanje stepena njihove urbanizacije.
The population of kosovar cities from the year 1948 to the year 1961 has increased for 5.6 times (while the total population growth for 2.8
times). It had a growth of 4.1% per year, that is almost double in comparation with the population increaese per year (2.4%).
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A greaser absolute and relative increase of population is recorded in at medium and larger cities, while relatively more intensive increase
have shown smaller cities and towns. The mainstay factor on population increase in the cities of Kosova is industrial grouth and cultural,
educational emancipation of population.
Because of Kosova's long-time economic negligance (from the beganing of our century to the sixties), in the year 1953 was characterized
with a very low level of industrialization, while in the year 1973 was in a higher level. After this high level of development begans the
period of slow decrease in the botom line of considerabl industrialization.
Following the level of industrialization Kosova stays behind the developed repuclics and Vojvodina for 2.5 times, while in the level of
urbanization for 1-2 times lower. Until the year 1965, Kosova was in a higher level of urbanization, while after that decents in the medium
rate with 27.7% (1971) and 36.3% (1991).
Approximately until the year 1950 the process of urbanization was characteized as positive, in the seventies more intensive, while
considerably lower, after that time.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
Radivojevi, Biljana
POKUAJ PRIMENE "ZAKONA MORTALITETA"
AN ATTEMPTED APPLICATION OF THE "LAW OF MORTALITY"
189-198
k.r.: "zakon mortaliteta", funkcija Heligman-a i Pollard-a, smrtnost stanovnitva, Jugoslavija
k.w.: "low of mortality", Heligman-Pollard formula, population mortality, Yugoslavia
Pod terminom "zakon mortaliteta" u demografskoj literaturi oznaavaju se matematiki izrazi kojima se smrtnost prikazuje kao funkcija
od starosti. Interes da se ta zavisnost izrazi odreenim funkcijama proistekao je iz injenice da kretanje smrtnosti po starosti ima
karakteristian tok. Poev od 17. veka do danas predloeno je mnotvo matematikih funkcija. Pre vie od jedne decenije, dva demografa
Heligman i Pollard daju jednu funkciju koja omoguava prilagoavanje empirijskim podacima u toku celog ivotnog veka. Mogunosti
primene tog modela jo uvek nisu potpuno istraene, ali je sigurno da su od velike koristi u analizi smrtnosti prema starosti i polu unutar
jedne populacije, ali i izmeu razliitih populacija. U radu je funkcija Heligman-a i Pollard-a primenjena na podatke o smrtnosti
stanovnitva Jugoslavije, a rezultati pokazuju relativno dobro slaganje empirijskih i teorijskih vrednosti i u velikoj meri potvruju
mogunosti analize smrtnosti pomou odgovarajuih parametara.
A "low of mortality", as a mathematical expression of the age pattern of mortality and its application have been the central focus of this
paper. "Law of mortality" has been of inerest since the development of the first life tables by John Graunt (1662) and Edmund Halley
(1693). After that there were many attempts at finding the "law of mortality", Recently Heligman and Pollard proposed the "law mortality"
for which they believed it would describe the age pattern of mortality through the whole life and could be applicable to a wide variety of
experiences. The basic curve is
C
q x / p x = A(x+B) + De-E(lnx-lnF ) + GH x ...
where qx is the probability of dying, px = 1 - qx., and A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H are
parameters. In this paper it has been demonstrated the use of Heligman-Pollard formula to Yugoslav mortality for the three-year periods
1960-62, 1970-72 and 1980-82.
Basic data are probabilites of dying, qx which were taken from the offical Life tables constructed in the Federal Bureau of Statistics. The
parameters of the curve were estimated using BMDP, statistical software for nonlinear regiession. The results of that analysis show an
adequate representation of Yugoslav mortality by that curve and confirm the demographic interpretation of all estimated parameters.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
Raevi, Miroslav
REZULTATI DEMOGRAFSKOG ISTRAIVANJA RATNIH GUBITAKA STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE U
XX VEKU
THE RESULTS OF THE INVESTIGATION OF WAR DEMOGRAPHIC LOSES IN YUGOSLAVIA IN XX
CENTURY
199-208
k.r.: ratni gubici, XX vek, Srbija, Crna Gora, demografski gubici, Jugoslavija,
k.w.: war loses, XX century, Serbia, Montenegro, demographic loses, Yugoslavia
O ratnim gubicima stanovnitva Jugoslavije u XX veku postoji obiman istraivaki materijal.
O gubicima u balkanskom i prvom svetskom ratu postoje dve procene i obe se odnose na ukupne gubitke i na stanovnitvo tadanje
Srbije i Crne Gore. Prve procene je izvrio Dragia uri (1200000 stanovnika), a drugu grupa amerikih istraivaa sa Notetajnom na
elu (775000 stanovnika, bez gubitka za Junu Srbiju).
O gubicima stanovnitva u drugom svetskom ratu izraeno je vie procena. Rezultati procena ukupnih gubitaka kreu se od 1985000
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(Koovi) do 3250000 (Vogelnik) a rtava od 1014000 (Koovi) i 1027000 (erjavi) do 1706000 (Reparaciona komisija Vlade FNRJ)
i 1814000 (Vogelnik). Koovi i erjavi su jo procenili gubitke po republikama i narodnosnim grupama.
Razmotreni radovi predstavljaju znaajnu literaturu o demografskim gubicima u Jugoslaviji. Zahvaljujui njima dobijena je predstava o
moguim gubicima stanovnitva, proverno je vie metodolokih koncepata i formirana je bogata referentna graa. Na drugoj strani
razmotreni radovi nisu lieni nedostataka. Oni se odnose na primenu metodologije, korienje dokumentacije i na nedovoljno korienje
raspoloivih znanja nauke o stanovnitvu. Usled toga postoji potreba za nastavljanjem istraivakog rada na procenama gubitaka
jugoslovenskog stanovnitva. Oni bi trebalo da prue nove odgovore ili da potvrde neke od postojeih, a vrlo mogue i da ukau na
postojanje ogranienja i otvorenih pitanja, koja treba reavati u daljem istraivanju ove sloena teme.
The author has considered the results of the scientific popers on war demographic loses in Yugoslavia in XX century, published in the
country up to the end of the eigthies, including the Report of Reparation Commissions of Yugoslav Government, and a number of the
papers published abroad. The author found that the considered papers are very important literature of this complex subject. Thanks to them
there is a idea of possible population loses, it was tested several methodological concepts and it, formed a pretty reach documentation and
literature of the subject. On the other side, it was found that proper methodological methods were not used and, particullarly, theoretical,
knowledge were not sufficiently respected. Because of this fact, the autor concluded that there is need for a new investigation in this
important subject.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
Kapor-Stanulovi, Nila, Mirvet Abou Shabanah
NEJEDNAKOST U ZDRAVSTVENOM STATUSU ENA U EVROPI
INEQUITIES IN HEALTH STATUS OF WOMEN IN EUROPE
209-218
k.r.: zdravstveni status, neravnopravnost, ene, Evropa
k.w.: health status, inequality, women, Europe
Autori ukazuju da su ene iz zemalja centralne i istone Evrope u nejednakom i neravnopravnom poloaju u poreenju sa enama koje
ive u ostalim delovima Evrope. Sama injenica da ivi u jednoj od pomenutih zemalja za enu moe da znai krai ivotni vek i vei
rizik od oboljenja kao to su, primera samo, bolesti cirkulatornog sistema i kancer.
Predmet ovog rada nije analiza uzroka takvog stanja ve da ukazivanje na postojee stanje, na injenicu da postoji izraena nejednakost i
neravnopravnost u zdravstvenom statusu ena u Evropi, koja je nepoznata irim krugovima. Neophodno je da se hitno preduzmu mere da
se ukine ova "dvojna Evropa", a prvi korak u tom pravcu jeste da se obelodane podaci o ovom fenomenu i upoznaju svi odgovorni sa
postojeim stanjem.
U radu su razraene neke od prepreka koje su do sada onemoguavale bolje rezultate u ovoj oblasti, kao i mogue solucije ovog
problema na meunarodnom nivou, kao i na nivou pojedinih zemalja.
Inequities in health status, together with inequities in aportunities for disease prevention and protection, are important issues nowdays.
Inequities and inequalities in health have not received due attention in the near past, and that fact had led the World Health Organization to
formulate its program "Health for all by 2000".
The graphs 5,6,7 and 8 illustrate that there are marked inequities in health status of women from countries of Cetral and Eastern Europe
(CCEE) compared with women from the of Europe. Being born and living in one of the seven CCEE's means, among others, being at
greater risk of diseases of circulatory system and cancer.
The aim the paper is not to analyse the causes. Instead, the aim is draw attention to the situation outlined above. The paper calls for the
immediate action in order to eliminate the "dual Europe", the first step being to inform about the problem.
The paper discusses the existing barriers for achieving better health status of women in CCEE. It also provides a list of possible solutions at
both country level and international level.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
urdev, Branislav
NUPCIJALITET U SELU VILOVU
NUPTIALITY IN THE VILLAGE OF VILOVO
219-226
k.r.: nupcijalitet, selo Vilovo
k.w.: nuptiality, Vilovo village
Rad je deo istraivanja demografskog razvitka jednog sela. Testiranjem osnovnih karakteristika "neevropskog" modela nupcijaliteta
odreuje se mesto stanovnitva sela Vilova.
Na osnovu podataka iz parohijskog registra venanih uporeuje se srednja starost prilikom sklapanja braka u ovom selu sa dostupnim
podacima za sela u Maarskoj i Engleskoj, a na osnovu procenjenog srednjeg trajanja ivota, prema podacima o smrtnosti odojadi, i
odgovarajueg modela stabilnog stanovnitva procenjuje se i proporcija udatih.
Studija sluaja sklapanja braka u selu Vilovu ukazuje na prelazni oblik nupcijaliteta i na njegovu promenljivost, te i na potrebu
regionalnog i istorijskog pristupa prouavanju ovog fenomena.

asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
Avramov, Dragana
OPADANJE STANOVNITVA: OD POPULACIONOG FENOMENA DO POPULACIONOG PROBLEMA
POPULATION DECLINE: FROM POPULATION PHENOMENON TO POPULATION PROBLEM
227-243
k.r.nema
k.w.nema
Autor prati populacionu klimu koju karakterie strah od usporavanja rasta stanovnitva u prvim decenijama XX veka i zabrinutost za
socijalne, ekonomske i demograsfke implikacije savremene depopulacije, u poslednjim decenijama veka.
Autor zakljuuje da je zabrinutost za implikacije opadanja stanovnitva u prolosti samo delimino bila uslovljena demografskom
situacijom, a delom je poivala na ideolokom ureenju odnosa izmeu kretanja stanovnitva, ekonomskog i socijanog razvoja i
porasta politikog uticaja.
Zabrinutost zbog savremene depopulacije ne poiva u samoj pojavi smanjenja broja stanovnika, ve u rezultirajuim promenama u
starosnoj strukturi i demografskim, socijalnim i ekononomskim implikacijama strukturnog preobraaja uzrokovanog depopulacijom.
Autor konstatuje da ne postoji saglasnost u Evropi u definisanju niskog ili "problematinog" fertiliteta i da prevladavaju sumnje u
pogledu etikih osnova politike koja bi imala za cilj da kanalie reproduktivno ponaanje pojedinca u drutveno poeljnom pravcu.
Otvoreni pronatalizam se ispoljava prevashodno u kolektivistikim politikim reimima i populistikim ideologijama.
U vienacionalnoj zajednici razlike u nivou fertiliteta deluju u pravcu poveanja socijalnih tenzija, pa je stoga, smatra autor, pitanje
diferencijalnog feritliteta u sreditu interesovanja naunika i politiara u veoj meri nego sama pojava neobnavljanja generacija.
Kada se etnike grupe razlikuju po modelima kulture, veroispovesti, vrednosnom sistemu, diferencijalni fertilitet, koji uzrokuke brze
promene u etnikom sastavu, oteava proces prenosa i integracije vrednosti i normi, verovanja i jezika i produbljava konflikte oko
ekonomskih transfera i demografskih investicija.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
Petri, Nevenka
DRUTVENI PREDUSLOVI OSNIVANJA I RAZVOJA POKRETA PLANIRANJA PORODICE U SVETU
SOCIAL PRECONDICIONS OF FOUNDING AND DEVELOPMENT OF FAMILY PLANNING MOVEMENT IN
THE WORLD
245-267
k.r.: Pokret planiranja porodice, Ujedinjene nacije, planiranje roditeljstva, osnovna ljudska prava
k.w.: Family planning movement, United Nations, planned Parenthood, basic human rights
Osnivanjem Maltuzijanske lige (1877-1927) odreeni krugovi popularisali su Malthusovu populacionu doktrinu kao reenje problema
pauperizacije evropskog stanovnitva.
Nicali su razni pokreti (Univerzalna federacija za raanje oveka, Svetska liga za seksualnu reformu, Meunarodna federacija liga za
kontrolu raanja) koji su doprineli osnivanju pokreta planiranja porodice u svetu. Posle Drugog svetskog rata na svetskoj sceni javljaju se
stari pioniri pokreta kontrole raanja na elu sa Margaret Sanger.
Prva meunarodna konferencija o planiranju porodice odrana je u Stokholmu, 1946. godine. Pokret planiranja porodice u svetu nije
nastao iz Maltuzijanske lige, kakvih tvrdnji esto ima, ve je to originalan pokret, zasnovan na planiranju porodice kao osnovnom
ljudskom pravu.
Meunarodna federacija za planiranje roditeljstva osnovana je u Bombaju 1952. godine. Danas ova federacija obuhvata najvei broj
zemalja-lanica Ujedinjenih nacija. Ona u UN od 1973. godine ima status nevladine organizacije prve kategorije.
Pokret planiranja porodice u svetu danas ima odreenu ulogu u okviru etvrte razvojne dekade UN, kao i u raiavanju ideoloke
zbrke, koja karakterie meunarodnu scenu, kada je re o aktuelnim problemima brzog porasta stanovnitva.
Family planning, as a wider social movement, is of a recent date, although biological reproduction, as a part of social reproduction, has
been in the focus of human interest since the beginning of the human race.
The great thinkers of all times have endeavoured to reflect the social trends in conection with the population movements, thus shaping
population theories, which in the earlier steges of social development were primarly an integral part of the economic approach towards
social development. In contrast to the belief that the population problems have been payed attention to in recent research only, in has been
established as a historical fact that these have been attracting attention of great thinkers in the course of the entire development of human
thought.
The development of family planning, in its modern sense, showes that it had been usually treated as a "remedy" for "overpopulation" until
the United Nations proclaimed it one of the basic human rights in 1966. The original accumulation in England, taking in to account the
accelerated growth of an army of the unemployed, must be included into the basis for the birth of the idea of family planning in the recent
history of the country, wich can be designated as the cradle of family planning in its modern sense.
The Malthusian League was founded in 1877 which accepted Malthus' economic doctrine on population. Reaction to the Malthusian
League's activity came at the very beginning from an ever increasing revolutionary stream of the socialist movement. Socialist-oriented
working class leaders pronounced an anathema on the Malthusian League's doctrine segments of the English society. The Neo-Malthusian
leagues were founded in some European countries, but they were perticulary strong in Denmark and Holand; later they were founded in the
Far Ist, too. In 1927, the Malthisian League held its last conference, on its fiftieth anniversary of existence and activity.
The First International Conference on Planned Parenthood was held in August 1946 in Stockholm. "Each child has the right to be wanted
by the both parents and all parents have the right to decide on number of children to be borne..." is the basic message of this Conference. At
this Conference, the First International Committee was established.
The International Conference on Family Planning prepared by the International Committee for Family Planning, together with the National
Organization for Family Planning in India, was held 1952 in Bombay. Thus the International Planned Parenthood Federation was "born".
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
Kovaevi, Miladin
POPIS 1991. U JUGOSLAVIJI: NEKA ZNAAJNA PITANJA
269-272
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
Radivojevi, Biljana
BREZNIK DUAN "STANOVNITVO JUGOSLAVIJE"
273-276
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
Mikovi, Sonja
ZBORNIK RADOVA "MIGRACIJE I BOSNA I HERCEGOVINA", SARAJEVO, 1990.
277-279
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
Todorovi, Marina
MILOVAN RADOVANOVI "OPTINA TRPCE (SIRINIKA UPA) DEMOGRAFSKI RAZVOJ I
OSOBENOSTI SOCIJALNOG PROSTORA"
279-280
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
Raduki, Nada
"ZBORNIK MATICE SRPSKE ZA DRUTVENE NAUKE", SVESKA 86-87, NOVI SAD, 1989.
280-282
asopis Stanovnitvo
bibliografija
broj 3-4/1990, 1-2/1991
godina XXVIII-XXIX
Raduki, Nada, Katarina Sekelj
BIBLIOGRAFIJA RADOVA DR DUANA BREZNIKA OBJAVLJENIH U ASOPISU "STANOVNITVO"
283-286
***************************************************************************
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1991
godina XXIX
Todorovi, Gordana
REPRODUKCIJA I PLODNOST STANOVNITVA SRBIJE II DEO
REPRODUCTION AND FERTILITY IN SERBIA PART II
7-44
k.r.: reprodukcija stanovnitva, plodnost stanovnitva, kontrola raanja, Republika Srbija
k.w.: population reproduction, population fertility, birth control, Republic of Serbia
Rad predstavlja nastavak studije autora o reprodukciji i fertilitetu stanovnitva Srbije u posleratnom periodu (do poetka 1980-ih godina),
iji je prvi deo objavljen u "Stanovnitvu" br. 3-4 i 1-2 za 1990-1991.
U drugom delu studije autor analizira kohortni fertilitet enskog stanovnitva sva tri velika podruja Srbije s obzirom na branost, starost,
obrazovanje, ekonomsku aktivnost i nacionalnu pripadnost. Na kraju su ispitani naini kojima ene kontroliu raanja i stavovi koje one
imaju prema veliini porodice kao i implikacije tih stavova na kontrolu raanja. Sve ove analize su posebno interesantne poto su dovoljno
razraene za tri napred pomenuta podruja Srbije, koji se nalazi na suprotnim krajevima evropske lestvice reprodukcije.
The paper discusses results of the continued study on reproduction and fertility of population in Serbia during the post-war period (until
early 1980). The results of the previous study by the same author were published in "Stanovnitvo", No 3-4 and 1-2 for 1990-91.
The author first deals with the fertility rate of different female cohorts in all three major regions of Serbia.
Cohort-specific variability in Kosovo where population is in full transition shows that the fertility rate of different female cohorts aged 1526 decreased in 1970 but was much higher than the fertility rate in the cohort of women aged 15 in that calendar year by the time they were
26 years old. On the other hand, in Voivodina, whose population was nearing the completion of the period of demographic transition in
1970 and was recording very low fertility, implementation of strong social policy measures during the following decade proved to be
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successful. Namely, female fertility of the age cohort entering its reproductive period in 1970, kept increasing.
The third example is that of Serbia proper where, like in Voivodina, the population was nearing the completion of its transitory period in
1970 but where, unlike in Voivodina, no population policy or similar measures were taken. The age-specific fertility of women under 26 in
the calendar year 1970 is quite similar to the fertility of female cohort aged 15 by the time it was 26 years old.
The analysis of cumulative fertility based on the 1981 census (and the comparison with those conducted earlier) points, among other
things, to the following:
- The mortality of mothers with more children is higher;
- Although women in Kosovo who are nearing the end of their reproductive period have fewer children, an upward tendency in fertility is
registered for the female cohort born in 1941-45;
- Though the impact of education on child bearing (more educated women have fewer children) is still felt in the low fertility regions of
Serbia, its impact is strongest in Kosovo;
- The same conclusion stands for the impact of economic activity, functional category and the socio-economic position: it is most strongly
felt in Kosovo and is quite weak in the case of other two regions.
Ethnic origin has also been affecting both the level and structure of fertility in the regions observed, but the impact of general social and
cultural environment on the formation of fertility structure should not be neglected either. Thus, for example, though the number of births
and the percentage of live births (affected by intentional abortion) as a share of total number of conceptions, is the lowest for the Serbs and
the highest for the Albanians, the difference can still be observed across regions ie, environment in which persons of certain ethnic origin
live.
Analysis of the impact of birth control on fertility shows that it represents the major factor behind large differences in new births in Serbia.
Results of the questionnaires conducted in 1970 and 1976 show that married women in Voivodina, and particularly those in Serbia proper,
have hardly fewer conceptions than married women in Kosovo. However, less than half of such conceptions result in live births while
others are ended by abortion. The reason lies in an inadequate application of contraception measures because women know of and practice
coitus interruptus, irrigation and the rhythm method while other more efficient methods and devices are much less used than, for example,
by Slovenian women. Thus, since they do not wish to enlarge their families, inefficient contraception is remedied by intentional abortion.
Finally, the paper presents a detailed analysis of the attitudes of women to the family size which, in the low fertility regions are the main
factor affecting family formation since our society gives free hands and full assistance to women in taking their own decision.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1991
godina XXIX
orevi, ivota, Gordana Matkovi, Boko Mijatovi
SISTEM MERA ZA OSTVARIVANJE POLITIKE OBNAVLJANJA STANOVNITVA U SRBIJI
MEASURES ON HUMAN REPRODUCTION POLICY IN SERBIA
45-70
k.r. obnavljanje stanovnitva, Srbija, regionalne razlike, sistem mera, zakon
k.w.: replacement fertility level, Serbia, regional differences, system of measures, law
Rad predstavlja rezultat istraivanja koje je sprovedeno krajem 1991. godine u Ekonomskom institutu za potrebe Vlade Srbije. Postojea
demografska situacija i velike regionalne razlike u Srbiji nametali su formulisanje sistema mera koji je po svojim ciljevima, kriterijuma i
naelima jedinstven, ali koji se u pojedinim reenjima razlikuje na niskonatalitetnim i visokonatalitetnim podrujima. Kao osnovni ciljevi
politike obnavljanja stanovnitva postavljeni su prosta reprodukcija stanovnitva i smanjenje regionalnih razlika u Srbiji. Izbor izmeu
velikog broja moguih mera nainjen je na osnovu etikog sadraja pojedinih mera, njihove efikasnosti, meusobne usklaenosti,
usklaenosti sa promenama u drutvenom ekonomskom sitemu, a imajui u vidu postojeu ekonomsku situaciju u Srbiji. Sistem mera je
najveim delom prezentovan u zakonskoj formi, a pojedine mere su usmerene na materijalne uslove ivota, porodicu, brak, poloaj ene u
drutvu, obrazovanje, informisanje, kulturne standarde, radne odnose, stanovanje, zdravstvenu i socijalnu zatitu i drugo. Pored mera koje
je bilo mogue zakonski formulisati, prezentovan je i jedan broj mera koje se ne mogu podvesti pod zakonsku formu, kao i institucije koje
bi trebalo stvoriti kako bi predloen sistem mogao da se sprovodi.
The paper presents results of the research carried out in late 1991 by the Economics Institute, Belgrade, for the Government of Serbia. The
demographic situation in Serbia and vast regional differences required formulation of a unique system with common purposes, criterions
and principles but with differences in particular pronatalist and antinatalist measures. Achievement of the replacement level of fertility and
narrowing down of regional demographic differences were established as a primary purpose of the policy. The choice between a great
number of potential measures was based on ethical values, efficiency, compatibility, characteristics of the economic and social system and
the economic situation in Serbia. The system of measures was presented in the form of a law dealing with the financial status, family,
marriage, status of women, education, information system, cultural standards, working conditions, housing, health, social security, etc. In
addition to the above, other measures aimed at establishing certain institutions to enable functioning of the whole system, were also
proposed.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1991
godina XXIX
Miljani, Maja
UVOD U ANALIZU ISTORIJA DOGAAJA
INTRODUCTION TO LIFE EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS
71-89
k.r.: istorije dogaaja, analiza
k.w.: life event history, analysis
Rad predstavlja pokuaj prikaza osnova metoda analize istorija dogaaja. Dosadanje iskustvo vezano za problematiku analize istorija
dogaaja pokazuje da su metodoloke analize ovog pristupa, kao i komparativne analize, daleko nadmaile njegovu praktinu primenu,
naroito kada je re o analizi fertiliteta na nacionalnom nivou. Kreiranje modela i prikupljanje podataka dva su meusobno povezana
procesa, ali je primarno njihovo determinisanje sa stanovita ciljeva primene metoda analize istorija dogaaja. U radu je dat prikaz
osnovnih tipova modela koji su u upotrebi kod analize istorija dogaaja, i ukazano je na izvesne probleme i naine za njihovo
prevazilaenje u postupku primene.
The paper presents basic features of the life event history analysis. Such analysis is recognized as the ideal way for studying events and
investigating their causes. Discrete time method, continuous time data methods and the proportional risk models are presented. An attempt
is made at distinguishing the censoring- related problems from those of the time-varying explanatory variables. The method proposed is
that of the maximum likelihood. The final chapter deals with the PC software applicable for such analysis which implies the life course
method.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1991
godina XXIX
PROMENA STEPENA KONCENTRACIJE U VELIKIM EVROPSKIM GRADOVIMA
CHANGES IN THE LEVEL OF URBANIZATION OF MAJOR EUROPEAN CITIES
89-99
k.r.: nivo urbanizacije, veliki gradovi, Evropa
k.w.: urbanization level, major cities, Europe
Mrea gradova sa vie od 100 hiljada stanovnika, odnosno velikih gradova, ima dominantan uticaj na tokove urbanizacije u evropskom
prostoru, kao i na jedan od njenih glavnih efekata: prostornu redistribuciju stanovnitva. Promene stepena koncentracije stanovnitva u
ovim naseljima predstavljaju jedan od osnovnih indikatora smerova i intenziteta urbanizacije, ali i niza drugih transformacija prostornodemografskog kretanja. Kako je proces urbanizacije u evropskom prostoru najsnanije kvalitativne promene ispoljio ve poetkom ovog
veka, a sredinom vei broj zemalja ulazi u novu, viu, fazu postindustrijske urbanizacije, cilj ovog istraivanja je da utvrdi u kojoj meri se
promene u stepena koncentracije ukupnog i urbanog stanovnitva u velikim gradovima reflektuju na osnovne tokove urbanizacije.
Analizom je, na osnovu raspoloivih podataka, obuhvaen period intenzivnih promena (1910-1985. godina), a posmatrani gradovi
grupisani su u etiri kategorije: sa vie od milion stanovnika, od 500 hiljada do milion, od 200 do 500 hiljada i od 100 do 200 hiljada
stanovnika.
Major European cities (with over 100,000 inhabitants) play a dominant role in the flows of urbanization and spatial redistribution of
population. This analysis, based on the available data, deals with the period of intensive changes (1910-1985) in the level of density of both
total and urban population in these settlements ie, the main flows of urbanization. The cities under review are classified within four
categories by the number of inhabitants: over one million, from 500,000 to one million, from 200,000 to 500,000 and from 100,000 to
200,000 inhabitants.
Based on data for 1910, a network of major cities consisted of 150 settlements where about one sixth of total population of the continent
was concentrated and only five cities had over one million inhabitants. The number of cities with over 100,000 inhabitants tripled (to 459)
by 1985 comprising one third of the European population while the number of cities with over one million inhabitants rose to 32.
The level and quality of urbanization achieved in the majority of European states during the period under review is directly dependant on
the level of development of the network of major cities ie, density of population as well as total and urban population they comprise. The
average level of urbanization for the continent as a whole was 72.0 per cent in 1985. A common feature for a number of countries in this
period is the emergence of new in addition to classic categories of settlements (villages and cities), especially in those regions where the
network of big cities is most developed and the density of population the highest. The new categories, like agglomerations, conurbations,
metropolis, the urban regions with cities as their nucleus, represent complex spatial and functional systems continuously expanding so that
with their development some countries (Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands) enter into a new, higher phase of
urbanization in terms of quality ie, the phase of post-industrial urbanization.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1991
godina XXIX
Vojkovi, Gordana
TOMISLAV BOGAVAC "STANOVNITVO BEOGRADA 1918-1991", BEOGRAD, 1991.
101-103
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1991
godina XXIX
urev, Branislav
"POPULACIONI RAST I EKONOMSKI RAZVOJ. PITANJA POLITIKE",WASHINGTON D.C., 1986
103-106
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1991
godina XXIX
Gordi, Aleksandar
ALAIN GIRARD "L'HOMME ET LE NOMBRE DES HOMMES", PARIS, 1984
106-113
asopis Stanovnitvo
hronika
broj 3-4/1991
godina XXIX
Petri, Nevenka
UDRUENJE ZA PLANIRANJE PORODICE JUGOSLAVIJE: OSNIVANJE I PRVE AKTIVNOSTI
115-122
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1992,1-2/1993
godinaXXX-XXXI
Miljani, Maja
TEORIJA DEMOGRAFSKE TRANZICIJE TEORIJA ILI MODEL
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY THEORY OR A MODEL
5-20
Kljune rei: stanovnitvo, demografska tranzicija, teorija, model
Key words: population, demographic transition, theory, model
Zadatak rada je da preispita osnovne osobine demografske tranzicije kao teorije. Radom se ukazuje na njena ogranienja da kao teorija
uspostavi odreene zakonitosti i da na osnovu njih poslui svrhama predvianja. Generalizacija i pojednostavljenje pojava opisanih
klasinom teorijom demografske tranzicije u sutini predstavljaju odlike modela kojima se hoe objasniti sloena demografska stvarnost.
U ovom sluaju re je o generalizaciji kretanja nataliteta i mortaliteta koja su odlikovala industrijska drutva Zapada. Analizom razlika
koje su postojale izmeu ovih drutava ili regiona unutar njih, ukazano je na faktore koji su imali presudnu ulogu na kretanje pre svega
fertiliteta, a koji nisu obuhvaeni teorijom demografske tranzicije. U radu je ukazano i na tekoe tumaenja populacione dinamike u
zemljama u razvoju ako bi se pribeglo iskljuivo analitikom aparatu teorije demografske tranzicije.
Although treated as "a familiar or over familiar subject", by Coale or even by Beaver as "one of the most important theoretical ideas in
social demography" demographic transition theory still doesn't present a "closed case". The final conclusions of this essay would be that:
1) the classical demographic transition theory can not be relevant for different socio-economic settings throughout different points of
time. In other words "westernalization" taken as a sole basis of the theory, doesn't work successfully when applied to so called "nonwestern" settings;
2) as a theory, it has failed to establish its own laws by which the assessments of the reached particular transition stages could be made,
as well as predictions of the possible future;
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3) given in its original form it should be understood as a model rather than a theory, mostly because it's simplifications and
generalizations, both of which are still far away from an empirical evidence and
4) the fact that various scholars advocate pro and contra existence of the second demographic transition, points out that demographic
transition theory itself is still the topic for further discussions.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1992,1-2/1993
godina XXX-XXXI
Petrovi, Mina
ISTRAIVANJE STAVOVA O IDEALNOM, ELJENOM I REALIZOVANOM BROJU DECE
INVESTIGATION OF INDIVIDUAL ATTITUDES OF IDEAL, WANTED AND REALIZED NUMBER OF
CHILDREN
21-44
Kljune rei: stavovi pojedinaca, broj dece, reproduktivne norme, reproduktivno ponaanje, roditeljstvo
Key words: individual attitudes, number of children, reproductive norms, reproductive behaviour, parenthood
U prvom delu rada dat je pregled teorijskih pretpostavki i rezultata istraivanja koja se bave stavovima pojedinaca o idealnom i eljenom
broju dece, uz pokuaj ocene njihovog dometa u odnosu na zadatak izgradnje opte teorije fertiliteta.
U drugom delu rada izneti su rezultati dobijeni u sklopu jednog ireg istraivanja o roditeljstvu, sprovedenog u Beogradu krajem 1991.
godine, a koje je obuhvatilo i stavove ispitanika o idealnom, eljenom i realizovanom broju dece. Prvenstveni cilj istraivanja bio je
eksplorativnog karaktera sa zadatkom da utvrdi postojanje pretpostavljenih razlika u sistemu potreba koje se vezuju za dete i roditeljstvo
izmeu razliitih socijalnih skupina (u zavisnosti od nejednakog obrazovnog i materijalnog statusa koji su od uticaja na stepen razvoja i
naine zadovoljavanja potreba) mada su na normativnom nivou njihovi stavovi u velikoj meri uniformni. Po miljenju autora ovo su
neka od bitnih saznanja koja treba dalje istraivati da bi se adekvatno mogle formulisati mere populacione politike.
First part of this paper deals with theoretical presumptions and outlines the results of researchs on individual attitudes towards ideal and
wanted number of children.
Such researchs are part of the microanalitical approach based on individual decisions in reproduction. The author thinks that lacking
general theory on fertility, demographers had to take over models from psychology and economy and adopt them to reproductive
behaviour which resulted in very apstract analitical frameworks on a subject characterized by significant unexpectedness and
irrationalites. On the other hand, the theory of demographic transition developed within a macroanalitical approach, links various
elements of a global process of social modernization and changes in reproductive behaviour in the manner in which a family and an
individual, as immediate bearers of reproduction, are seen simply as a function of global society without any causing effects of their own.
The Author emphasizes that the problem of scientific explanation in demography is exstremly specific and assumes knowledge of the
phenomena on agregate level that have their initiation on individual level. In other words, it requires knowledge of social determinism
from top to bottom. Performance of this scientific task requires participation of all sciencies that deal with society or individuals in
construction of a global theory on fertility. Without offering any solution, the author wants to remind of a limited, but indispensable,
level of scientific knowledge resulting of researchs based on individual attitudes.
The results point at a positive correlation beetwen these norms and actual reproductive behaviour and also at the fact that the norms are
still a bit higher than number of children. The author explans that by the inertia of values' stereotype and, which is important, by a serious
social problem of an individuals' position in which they can not realise their parental needs in the way they would like to. Besides,
reproductive uniformity across social groups is obvious both in terms of the and practices, which is, as the author suggests, connected
with the rules of modern consumer's society in which parenthood is standardised too. In fact, the results of such researches raise a
question about qualitative range of individualisation that can be reached in modern consumer's society. Referring to the results of
sociological investigations the author points at the fact that everyday life below subsistence level is functional and needed from the
standpoint of modern production system, and that may be there we can search for answers why social institutions still remain very
passive when the problem of low fertility is in question. Namely, the reproductive conscience of individuals and their reproductive
behaviour can not be changed without essential changes in the functional system of modern society that are of qualitative importance for
the position of an indivudual as a parent.
The second part of this paper presents the results of a broader investigation on parenthood that includes attitudes about ideal, wanted and
the realised number of children. The investigation was performed in Belgrade in late 1991. Since the sample was quite, 101 working
women, the main purpose was explorative, aimed to confirm the assumption on differences in the system of needs regarding children and
parenthood across different variuos social groups (workers, employees, intellectuals), despite great uniformity in reproduction patterns.
Information was colected on attitudes towards the ideal number of children, wanted number of children at the begining of marriage, on
definitions of the need for children and the perceptions of the negative side of the parenthood, on estimates of the importance of reasons
leading the investigated women to decide to bear a certan number of children. The overall social crisis has doubtless affected all social
groups and very much influenced the answers. However according to the qualitative definition of needs in the process of formulating
attitudes of investigated groups material factors are not present in the same way. The process of parenthood's liberation from severity of
social norms is espied beetwen more educated individuals, with a higher social position, who are orientated more to the problems of
being succesfull parents and working outside home at the same time, who feel they lack time for both children and themselves, their
needs and activities. This coresponds to the reported distinctions in the ways that different groups define their need for children (workers
usually regard children as the highes value in life, its aim in fact, while intellectuals regard it as one of the most important need). Such
investigation points at the differences that initiate possible differences in sensitiveness of these groups toward the same population
policy measures needed above all to elevate the quality of parenthood, ie, the possition of parents and children.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1992,1-2/1993
godina XXX-XXXI
Raevi, Mirjana
REPRODUKTIVNO PONAANJE I NAMERNI PREKID TRUDNOE
REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR AND INDUCED ABORTION
45-62
Kljune rei: namerni prekid trudnoe, reproduktivno ponaanje, kontracepcija
Kljune rei: induced abortion, reproductive behaviour, contraception
U radu je namerni prekid trudnoe razmotren kao istorijska pojava iji je obim veliki i danas i pored toga to je moderna nauka pruila
nove metode i sredstva koja su sa zdravstvenog i socijalnog aspekta logino reenje dileme o vidu kontrole raanja. Sloenu
deterministiku osnovu abortusa autor je posmatrao kroz intezivnu kontrolu biolokog potencijala, objektivna ogranienja kontracepcije i
njihovo subjektivno doivljavanje kao i osobine ene i mukarca, pre svega, psiholoke i socijalne vrste. U zakljuku je istaknuto da e
namerni prekid trudnoe koji se zasniva na izvesnosti postojanja, a ne na verovatnoi zaea uvek postojati.
Induced abortion, as a phenomenon, has its theoretical interpretations although they are neither complete nor definitive. There is a real
need for induced abortion in spite of the fact that modern science has provided new methods and devices which are acceptable from both
medical and personal point of view. Induced abortion has been determined by a great number of different factors. Among them birth
control, particularly intensive control of biological potential, objective limitations of contraception and their subjective comprehension
and psychological and social characteristics of women and men have have a special place.
Low reproductive norms, early sexual intercourse, spreading of cohabitation and other new living styles require intensive birth control.
Limitations of contraception lie, first of all, in the nature of their methods and means. There is resistance to contraception as an unnatural
act, suspicion and fear of modern contraception, preparations and special conditions needed for application of some methods and means,
various degree of contraception effectiveness, a need for permanent use of contraception and so on. Finally, various features of women
and men as general and specific knowledges, partner relations, responsibility for their own life and life control, locus of individual
control, attitudes towards sexuality, consistency in realization of long term goals and making sexual decisions.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1992,1-2/1993
godina XXX-XXXI
Penev, Goran
PROJEKCIJE STANOVNITVA SR JUGOSLAVIJE, 1991-2150. U KONTEKSTU DUGORONIH PROJEKCIJA
STANOVNITVA SVETA
POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR THE FR OF YUGOSLAVIA, 1991-2150, IN THE CONTEXT OF LONGRANGE WORLD POPULATION PROJECTIONS
63-98
kljune rei: projekcije stanovnitva, starosna struktura, stanovnitvo Jugoslavije, stanovnitvo sveta
key words: population projections, age structure, Yugoslav population, world population
U radu su najpre ukratko diskutovane polazne hipoteze i rezultati najnovnijih dugoronih projekcija stanovnitva sveta i velikih regiona
koje su uraene u Ujedinjenim nacijama. Autor u nastavku analizira rezultate svojih dugoronih projekcija stanovnitva SR Jugoslavije,
republika i pokrajina za period 1991-2150. Prilikom postavljanja hipoteza autor je za sedam varijanti primenio iste tzv. ciljne periode i
ciljne vrednosti stopa ukupnog fertiliteta i oekivanog trajanja ivota kao i strunjaci Ujedinjenih nacija pri izradi dugoronih projekcija
sveta. Pored toga autor je uveo i osmu varijantu projekcija koja se zasniva na pretpostavci brzog dostizanja vrlo niskog nivoa fertiliteta
(SUF = 1.3) i njegovog zadravanja na tom nivou do kraja projekcionog perioda. Na kraju rada se porede rezultati dugoronih projekcija
stanovnitva SR Jugoslavije i Evrope.
The author first discusses the basic assumptions and results of the long-range world population projections for the period from 1990 to as
worked out by the UN experts. These projections represent the extension of the 1990 revision of the regular projections to the year 2025.
The long-range world population projections are in seven variants and for nine major areas (Africa, Latin America, Northern America,
China, India, Asia excluding China and India, Europe, Oceania and former USSR). The projections operate with only one variant of
mortality resulting in ultimate life expectency at birth of 87.5 years for women and 82.5 years for men (84.9 years for both sexes).
In the secund part of this paper, the author analyzes the results of the long-range population projections for the FR of Yugoslavia he had
made for the period from 1991 to 2150. Projections for the FR of Yugoslavia represent the aggregate amount of population projections
for the Republic of Montenegro and for the constituent parts of the Republic of Serbia. When making his assumptions for the seven
variants, the author used the same target periods, ultimate total fertility rate and life expectancy at birth as were used by the UN experts
in developing their long-range world population projections. However, the author elaborated an additional, i.e. the eighth variant, which
assumes rapid decline of fertility (ultimate TFR=1.3) to be maintained until the end of the projections period.
From the 10.4 million in 1991, the projected yugoslav population would, depending on the fertility assumptions taken, range from 1.8
("fatally"-low-fertility variant) to 57.4 million (constant-fertility in all constituent republics and provinces, at the end of the projected
period.
The variants assuming medium fertility or the instant-replacement-level-fertility variant would, if realised, cause the smallest change.
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According to these fertility variants, the projected population of the FR of Yugoslavia would increase by less then 20 per cent in 160
years (the average annual growth rates would amount to 1 per thousand).
The long-range projections point to the inevitable major changes in the future age structure of yugoslav population. These changes would
be particularly strong in the period to the year 2050 and, depending on the variant chosen, assume further ageing of the population.
During the 2050-2150 subperiod, changes in the age structure of the projected population would be much less pronounced and,
depending on the variant chosen, the projected population would show a process of slow demographic ageing or rejuvenation. According
to the medium variant, the shere of childern less than 15 years old would be 17.5 per cent (19.3 per cent 1991) and the percentage of
population aged 65 or over 24.5 per cent (11.9 per cent in 1991).
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1992,1-2/1993
godina XXX-XXXI
Stevanovi, Radoslav
MIGRACIONE ODLIKE OPTINA SR JUGOSLAVIJE: PREMA POPISU IZ 1991.
CHARACTERISTICS OF MIGRATORY MOVEMENTS IN COMMUNES OF FR OF YUGOSLAVIA: BASED ON
THE 1991 CENSUS
99-116
kljune rei: migracije, emigracione optine, imigracione optine, popis 1991, Jugoslavija
key words: population migration, emigrant communes, immigrant communes, 1991 Census, Yugoslavia
Autor istrauje koji su to emigracioni prostori, a koji imigracioni, koliko zahvataju teritorije i koliko stanovnitva, odnosno ta
predstavljaju u teritorijalnom i populacionom obuhvatu u Jugoslaviji i njenim podrujima (republike i pokrajine) u meupopisnom
razdoblju 1981-1991. godine i ukazuje na promene nastale u odnosu na prethodno meupopisno razdoblje (1971-1981). Prema popisu iz
1991. emigracioni prostori (optine) zahvataju 80.1% optina, 81.9% teritorije i 65.1% stanovnitva Jugoslavije. Nasuprot njima,
imigracioni prostori (optine) zahvataju 19.9% optina, 18.1% teritorije i 34.9% stanovnitva zemlje.
U radu je ukazano i na promene nastale u periodu 1981-1991 u odnosu na period 1971-1981. godine, pri emu istie poveanje broja
emigracionih optina na raun broja imigracionih optina. Posmatrano po podrujima broj optina emigracionog tipa raste u Centralnoj
Srbiji i u Vojvodini, na podruju Kosova i Metohije opada, dok je u Crnoj Gori broj emigracionih i imigracionih optina jednak u oba
meupopisna razdoblja.
This paper discusses emigrant (communes with a negative balance of migration) and immigrant (communes with a positive balance of
migration) territories of FR of Yugoslavia and its constituent republics and provinces based on vital statistics and population migration
data during the inter-censal 1981-1991 period. A comparison is made with the preceding inter-censal period, 1971-1981.
The analysis shows that emigrant territories comprise 80.1 per cent of communes which is 81.9 per cent of total territory and 65.1 per
cent of total population of Yugoslavia. On the other hand, immigrant territories comprise 14.9 per cent of communes which is 18.1 per
cent of total territory and 34.9 per cent of total population of Yugoslavia.
A regional breakdown shows that Vojvodina has the highest share in emigrant communes (88.9 per cent), territory (91.2 per cent) and
population (81.0) while Kosovo and Metohia stands out as the region with the highest natural increase in population, the highest general
increase in population and the highest population growth in immigrant communes (index of change in total population is 123.4, emigrant
communes 119.0 and immigrant communes (130.0).
Relative to the preceding inter-censal period (1971-1981) the number of emigrant communes in Yugoslavia in 1981-1991 period rose
from 136 to 161 while the number of immigrant communes decreased by the difference (from 60 to 45). A regional breakdown (by
republics and provinces) shows that the number of emigrant communes increased in Central Serbia and Voivodina (from 73 to 9 ie. from
31 to 40). In Montenegro the ratio remained unchanged (13 emigrant to 7 immigrant communes) while the number of emigrant
communes declined in Kosovo and Metohia (from 19 to 17). As a result of the above changes, regional distribution and population
volumes changed correspondingly.
The paper does not analyze migratory factors that have led to such changes but points that the flows were strongly determined by
economic factors.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1992, 1-2/1993
godina XXX-XXXI
Raduki, Nada
SASTAV DOMAINSTVA SRBIJE PREMA SOCIO-EKONOMSKIM KARAKTERISTIKAMA
HOUSEHOLD STRUCTURES ACCORDING TO SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS: THE CASE OF
SERBIA
117-134
kljune rei: domainstva, porodice, socio-ekonomske strukture, Srbija
key words: households, families, socio-economic structures, Serbia
U radu su analizirane najvanije promene u sastavu domainstva Srbije u periodu od 1948. do 1988. godine. Najpre je ukazano na neke
osnovne faktore koji su uticali na porast broja domainstava, opadanje prosene veliine i promene u distribuciji domainstava prema
broju lanova. Autor zatim ispituje preobraaj domainstva preko analize obeleja aktivnosti lanova u domainstvu. Naime,
grupisanjem svih domainstava prema izvoru prihoda (poljoprivredna, meovita i nepoljoprivredna), i analizom njihovih osnovnih
karakteristika omoguava se kompletno sagledavanje promena socio-ekonomske strukture domainstva. Drutvene, kulturne i istorijske
razlike u stepenu razvijenosti pojedinih podruja Srbije (Kosovo i Metohija, Vojvodina), uslovljavaju razlike u veliini, karakteru i
tempu ukupnog preobraaja domainstva. Uporedni pristup ima za cilj da omogui uvid u postojee razlike i specifinosti, ali i da pokae
ta je to jedinstveno i zajedniko za preobraaj domainstva u svim sredinama.
After the Second World War the processes of industrialization and urbanization have resulted in significant changes in the socioeconomic structures of household and family, economic life, the consumption and the general system of social values. During the process
of accelerated desagrarization, intense spatial mobility related to the transfer of farmers to non-agricultural activities and to cities, had a
key role in changing the size of household units,their structure and social stratification.
The social and demographic implications of such changes are multidimensional, affect the society as a whole and its macro institutions
have a recurrent influence on the family.
The general trend which can be observed from the census of 1948 to the census of 1981 shows a permanent and intensive increase in the
number of households in Serbia (from 1.5 million to 2.5 million). The increase in the number of households was accompanied by the
decrease in the average size of the Serbian family which was caused by splitting up of extended households on the one hand, and by the
declining number of children in the family on the other. The demographic causes of this trend are typical for the early phase of structural
transformation in which households are reduced to the family unit cinsisting of parents and their dependent children. Household with
about 3 to 3.4 persons are characteristic for territories with relatively developed industry and low fertility (Voivodina and Central Serbia).
The province of Kosovo and Metohia stands out with a markedly high average household size of 6.7 persons due to high fertility the
agrarian character of the economy and low spatial mobility of the population.
Structural changes in a household are more specifically illustrated by data on the distribution of households by the number of persons.In
regions where birth rates are low and the process of demographic transition has reached a more advanced stage (Central Serbia and
Voivodina), about two thirds of all household have 2 to 4 members. In Kosovo and Metohia, which is passing through the early stage of
transition, the share of 2 to 4 person households is only one quarter of the total number of households. Consequently,in this province,
almost half (46.2 per cent, of all households have 7 or more members.
The process of desagrarization and rapid industrialization, transfer of agricultural population to non-agricultural activities resulted in
changes of the economic functions of households. In 1948 in Serbia, the non-agricultural population accounted for 29 per cent of total
population and in 1981 for about 75 per cent According to the household survey of 1988, in Serbia had about 400000 agricultural
households. The number of households in which all adults were engaged in farming has been continuously declining. In the interval
1973-1981, the average agricultural household size declined by 0.5 persons (3.8 to 3.4).
Mixed households have been increasing in number and now account for 27.8 per cent of all households. They are larger than both
agricultural and non-agricultural households and, on the average, number 4.4 persons. On the average, 1 person is employed, 0.4 has a
personal income and 0.9 is a full-time farmer. The number of dependents equals that of active persons. Mixed households are in a much
better economic position than the agricultural ones. The income of the employed household member is generally higher than the income
earned ba the household from farming.
The non-agricultural households became the most numerous category in the 1960s and in the they accounted for 56 per cent of all
households. The household income is earned primarily or exclusively from work outside the household. Non-agricultural households are
smallest in size. The average number of persons has been fluctuating around 3.2. Although the average household size has been
constant,the dependency ratio has changed. Namely, the number of active persons and pensioners has increased while the number of
dependents has decreased in this household category.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1992, 1-2/1993
godina XXX-XXXI
Matkovi, Gordana, Tripo Mulina, Miroslav Raevi
STANOVNITVO, RADNA SNAGA I ZAPOSLENOST NA PODRUJU JUGA SRBIJE
POPULATION, LABOUR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE SOUTH SERBIA
135-152
kljune rei: stanovnitvo, radna snaga, projekcije zaposlenosti, Jug Srbije
key words: population, labour force, employment projections, South Serbia
lanak predstavlja deo istraivanja koje je sprovedeno za potrebe izrade programa dugoronog drutveno-ekonomskog razvoja privredno
nedovoljno razvijenih optina Juga Srbije i nedovoljno razvijenih prigraninih optina. U radu su analizirana kretanja stanovnitva i
domainstava, plodnost, smrtnost i prirodni prirataj stanovnitva, socijalne i ekonomske strukture stanovnitva, kretanje i karakteristike
radne snage, kretanje zaposlenosti i zapoljavanja, nivo zaposlenosti u privatnom sektoru, zaposlenost u inostranstvu, problemi
nezaposlenosti i ekonomska struktura zaposlenih u periodu od 1961. do 1991. godine, a izraene su i projekcije stanovnitva, radne
snage i zaposlenosti do 2010. godine. U celini posmatrano, demografski razvitak na podruju Juga Srbije u poslednjih nekoliko decenija
bio je pod uticajem savremenih ekonomskih i socijalnih procesa, kao i onih iz dalje prolosti ije je dejstvo dugorono i posredno.
Review represents a part of the analysis that have been conducted for the purpose of creating a long term socio-economic development
program for the underdeveloped local communities in the South Serbia and some adjoining border communities. The review explores
development of population and households, fertility, mortality, natural increase, social and economic structures of the population,
development and characteristics the labour force, employment evolution, employment in private sector, employment abroad,
unemployment and economic structure of workers in the period 1961-1991. In addition so that, population, labour force and employment
projections until 2010 are created.
During the last few decades demographic development in South Serbia was under the influence of modern economic and social
processes, as well as under of those from the past, which were long term and indirect. As a result, many progressive elements have been
incorporated into population development of this area. Nevertheless, demographic situation in late 1980s have been characterized by
undesirable tendencies and some serious problems. Future development, on the other hand, will depend on the development program to
be carried out in this region.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1992,1-2/1993
godina XXX-XXXI
SRBI KAO RTVE U DRUGOM SVETSKOM RATU
SERBS AS VICTIMS IN THE SECOND WORLD WAR
Kovaevi, Miladin
153-160
kljune rei: ukupni ratni gubici, nepotpun popis rtava rata, procene, Srbi, Drugi svetski rat
key words: total war losses, incomplete war victims survey, estimates, Serbs, Second World War
U radu je predstavljeno jednostavno izraunavanje procena ratnih gubitaka kod Srba izmeu 1941. i 1945. godine po osnovnim
kategorijama koje su bile primenjene u popisu rtava rata 1964. godine. Ovo izraunavanje bazira na dva oslonca: procenama ukupnih
ratnih gubitaka V. erjavia i B. Koovia na tlu bive Jugoslavije i rezultatima nepotpunog popisa rtava rata 1941-1945. Uee
pojedinih kategorija rtava kod Srba ekstrapolirano je pomou procene ukupnih rtava rata na tlu Jugoslavije dobijene od strane V.
erjavia (odnosno B. Koovia, koja je najnovija i za sada najmanje osporavana. Dobijeni brojevi (procene, su verodostojni u meri u
kojoj se popis rtava iz 1964. godine moe smatrati "reprezentativnim uzorkom" svih rtava u pogledu nacionalne zastuplenosti i
zastupljenosti glavnih kategorija
Figures on total war losses of Serbs and on certain categories of victims of war were based on the estimates given by V. erjevi, B.
Koovi and the incomplete survey on victims of Second World War 1941-1945 carried out in 1964. The analysts who have dealt with
this subject consider the estimates by erjevi and Koovi to be the most thorough and reliable ones. The estimates given by these two
authors are very close to each other, especially from the aspect of total number of victims in Yugoslav soil (approximately 1020000
direct victims of war).
erjevi's estimates were accepted as a starting point framework as they appeared after the publication of Koovi's study and displayed
high respect of the results obtained by Koovi. On the basis of the estimated total warlosses on the Yugoslav soil obtained by erjevi
(1027000), the numbers on total victims of war with Serbs for certain territorries were obtained, as well as the number of Serbian victims
of war by categories treated in the survey. Namely, the share of Serbian victims of war in the total mass covered by the survey (596587,
was applied to erjevi's estimate of total number of victims. In this way the following was derived:
1. Total war losses sustained by Serbs are 597000;
2. In the territory of the former Independent State of Croatia 419509 people lost life;
3. In the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina the war losses of Serbs are 225940;
4. The estimated war losses sustained by Serbs in the territory of Craotia are 174590;
5. War losses of Serbs in the territory of Serbia and Montenegro are 195130;
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6. Total number of Serbian civilian victims of war for the territory of Yugoslavia is estimated to be 400530;
7. In the territory of former Independent State of Croatia the total number of civilian victims of war among Serbs is estimated to be
306241;
8. The total number of civilian victims of war with Serbs in the territory of Croatia is estimated to be 123959;
9. The number of Serbian civilian victims of war in the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina is estimated to be 169445;
10. The number of Serbs, civilian victims of war in Serbia and Montenegro is estimated at 105370;
11. The number of Serbs who lost life in concentration camps and prisons in the former Independent State of Croatia is 92292;
12. The number of Serbs who lost life in the national-liberation war and the allied military formations is estimated to be 178861;
13. Total number of Serbs perished in internment (concentration camps, prisons and similar places, in Yugoslav territory is estimated to
be 100117, out of which the share of the Independent State of Croatia is 92 per cent;
14. The number of Serbs killed in direct terror and forced labor in the territory of Yugoslavia is 238000;
15. The number of Serbs killed in course of the battles and during air raids is estimated at 26208;
16. The number of Serbs who lost life as the members of the army of Yugoslav Kingdom is estimated to be 7462.
With respect to other peoples in the territory of former Yugoslavia (post-war), apart from Montenegrins who are a part of Serbian people
(in ethnogenic sense of the word), the Serbs have, both in an absolute and a relative sense, sustained the greatest losses. According to
Koovi, the war losses of Serbs amounted to 7 per cent in the total forcasted population for the year 1948.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1992,1-2/1993
godina XXX-XXXI
orevi, ivota
POECI I ARITA PADA NATALITETA U SEOSKOM DRUTVU SRBIJE 19. VEKA
COMMENCEMENT AND CENTRES OF THE DECLINE IN FERTILITY IN PEASANT SOCIETIES OF THE 19TH
CENTURY SERBIA
161-170
kljune rei: pad nataliteta, selo, agrarno drutvo, XIX vek, Srbija
key words: fertility decline, village-settlement, peasant society, XIX century, Serbia
Cilj istraivanja je da se odrede vreme i prostor poetka pada nataliteta u agrarnom drutvu Srbije XIX veka i naznae mogui
ekonomski, socijalni i psiholoki inioci pojave. Vremenski i prostorno, pojava je identifikovana na osnovu postojee statistike grae,
istorijskih izvora i malog broja demografskih radova, a pokuaj objanjenja uzroka izveden je pomou etnografske literature.
Istraivanjem su zahvaeni nupcijalitet, mortalitet i starenje, odnosno njihova veza sa natalitetom. Posebna panja je posveena tipu
porodice u rejonima rane pojave pada nataliteta. Istraivanje je pokazalo da je natalitet najpre poeo da pada u istonoj Srbiji ili,
odreenije, u Timokoj krajini i Poarevakom okrugu. Njegov pad se javlja kao karakteristika stanovnitva na ije formiranje nije
presudno uticalo doseljavanje iz zapadnih i dinarskih krajeva i za koje nisu bile tipine velike zadrune porodice.
The purpose of this paper is to identify the time and the area where fertility had began to decline in the peasant society of Serbia during
the XIX century, and to point out the potential economic, social and psychological determinants. Author associated the decline of fertility
with nupciality, mortality and aging of the population in the peasant society. The main conclusion in Timok region and Poarevac
county, and that the economic system and the family type and the size have been of the major importance. On the other side, the religion
and the church did not have the common influence.
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/komentar
broj 1-4/1992,1-2/1993
godina XXX-XXXI
Radovanovi, Svetlana
NEKE KRITIKE OPASKE NA POPIS STANOVNITVA 1991. GODINE
171-177
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/komentar
broj 1-4/1992,1-2/1993
godina XXX-XXXI
Stankovi, Vladimir
OSVRT NA NEKE VANIJE REZULTATE POPISA 1991. I AKTUELNO DEMOGRAFSKO STANJE U SRBIJI
178-182
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osvrt/komentar
broj 1-4/1992,1-2/1993
godina XXX-XXXI
Sekuli, Ljiljana
OSNOVNE DEMOGRAFSKE KARAKTERISTIKE REPUBLIKA BIVIH EVROPSKIH SOCIJALISTIKIH
FEDERATIVNIH DRAVA (SFRJ, SSSR, SFR)
182-197
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/komentar
broj 1-4/1992,1-2/1993
godina XXX-XXXI
Deletovi, Anelka, Nila Kapor-Stanulovi
UPOREENA ANALIZA NAPISA U TAMPI NA TEMU PLANIRANJA PORODICE (1968-1990)
197- 204
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/komentar
broj 1-4/1992,1-2/1993
godina XXX-XXXI
Raevi, Mirjana
EVROPSKA DEMOGRAFSKA KONFERENCIJA, PARIZ, 21-25. OKTOBAR 1991.
204-208
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/1992, 1-2/1993
godina XXX-XXXI
Miljani, Maja
PROGRAM "STANOVNITVO I RAZVOJ", HAG, septembar 1991. maj 1992.
208-210
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1992,1-2/1993
godina XXX-XXXI
Petrovi, Mina
DRAGANA AVRAMOV "POJEDINAC, PORODICA I STANOVNITVO U RASKORAKU"
211-216
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1992,1-2/1993
godina XXX-XXXI
M. SPASOVSKI, D. IVKOVI, M. STEPI ETNIKI SASTAV STANOVNITVA BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE
216-220
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1992,1-2/1993
godina XXX-XXXI
Radivojevi, Biljana
GORDANA VOJKOVI "SMRTNOST STANOVNITVA BEOGRADA"
220-221
140
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1992,1-2/1993
godina XXX-XXXI
Matkovi, Gordana
ANSLEY J. COALE "LECTURES ON POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT"
221-224
asopis Stanovnitvo
statistiki prilog
broj 1-4/1992,1-2/1993
godina XXX-XXXI
Penev, Goran, Slavica Pavkov, Radoslav Stevanovi, Ema Jovanovi
NASELJA U SR JUGOSLAVIJI SA NEGATIVNIM ILI NULTIM PRIRODNIM PRIRATAJEM U 1991.
225-278
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1993,1-2/1994
godina XXXI-XXXII
Raevi, Mirjana
WOMEN'S KNOWLEDGE AND INDUCED ABORTION: A SURVEY IN METROPOLITAN BELGRADE, 1990
ZNANJE ENA I INDUKOVANI ABORTUSI. ANKETA U BEOGRADU 1990. GODINE
1-12
K.w.: knowledge, induced abortion, contraception, population replacement
K.r.: znanje, namerni prekud trudnoe, kontracepcija, obnavljanje stanovnitva
Induced abortion is a predominant method of birth control in Central Serbia. Although the abortion rate has decreased somewhat with
spread of contraception, the abortion rate ia one of the highest in Europe and the number of abortion exceeds the number of livebirths.
This article presents findings from a research done in 1990 - it refers to Belgrade and it includes four hundred women - aimed to establish
whether lack of knowledge about anatomy and physiology of reproduction and about characteristics of methods and devices of birth
control was one of important reasons for high number of abortions in Central Serbia. The level of knowledge can be estimated as low,
even extremely low on same points. This can be concluded not only from number of wrong answers but also from the degree ignorance
shown. Regardless in the differences in the knowledge of women by age and education, the women know little about these themes. In
that sense, dissemination of relevant knowledge must be provided, so that the value of contraception as a preventive and health
supporting measure will be more widely understood by both men and women.
Namerni prekid trudnoe je u dugom vremenskom razdoblju bio dominantan metod kontrole raanja u Centralnoj Srbiji. Mada je sa
irenjem kontracepcije njegov znaaj poeo da opada, stopa abortusa je jedna od najveih u Evropi i broj abortusa dvostruko prevazilazi
broj ivoroene dece. Ovaj rad predstavlja rezultate istraivanja koje je sprovedeno 1990. godine - odnosi se na Beograd i obuhvatilo je
etiri stotine ena - s cijem da se utvrdi da li je nedostatak znanja o anatomiji i fiziologiji reprodukcije, prednostima i manama razliitih
kontraceptivnih metoda i sredstava, mehanizmima delovanja moderne kontracepcije i tetnosti namernog prekida trudnoe znaajan
uzrok velikog broja abortusa u Centralnoj Srbiji. I to znanje shvaeno u irem smislu, sa ukljuenom socijalnom i psiholokom
dimenzijom. Rezultati anketnog istraivanja jasno su pokazali da veina ena ne zna nita blie o ovim temama. Nedostaju i elementarna
znanja kao i poznavanje pojava sa kojima se ena stalno susree i sudara. Zbunjuje prisustvo tradicionalnih verovanja i stavova. Bitno je
istai visoku odreenost ena. One jednostavno nisu svesne svog neznanja ili su razoarane u ranije pokuaje da saznaju neto vie i
dublje. To su i razlozi da ene same, spontano konstruiu sopstvene teorije koje esto zadivljuju matom a plae dubinom neznanja,
moguim emocionalnim neprihvatanjem elemenata koji se saznaju, izvorima i putevima saznanja. Prvo negativno iskustvo, sopstveno ili
tue, sa nekim oblikom kontracepcije se generalizuje i ukljuuje kao vana dimenzija saznanja. Jednom nauivi neto, spontano, bez
razumevanja, ne proverava se. Namee se uniformnost netanih odgovora. Mnogo ena na isti nain, ak istim reima razmilja. U tom
smislu ilustrativan je primer shvatanja o destruktivnom delovanju pilule u telu ene. Sem toga neshvatljiva je zatvorenost jednog broja
ena prema novim saznanjima. Obrazovanje jeste faktor koji determinie razlike u nivou znanja ali ne u onoj meri u kojoj bi to moralo da
ini. Malo znaju ene koje prekidaju trudnou i one sa najviom kolskom spremom pa ak i ene u ije obrazovanje po prirodi stvari
spada i ova vrsta znanja. Nuno se namee razmiljanje o uzrocima ovakvog stanja. Da li je u pitanju lo kvalitet obrazovanja ili
preputanje spontanom interesu ene za ove teme, a ne sistematskom obrazovanju i obavezi lekara opte prakse i/ili ginekologa ili se
odnos prema seksualnosti u naem drutvu nalazi u jednom vakuumu izmeu tradicionalnog i savremenog?
Iz vie nalaza ovog istraivanja izdvaja se ne samo nedovoljno znanje o kontracepciji i abortusu kao osnovni uzrok velikog broja
abortusa u Centralnoj Srbiji ve i uverenje da je kontracepcija tetna za zdravlje, psiholoke barijere, nedovoljni kulturni nivo (opti,
zdravstveni, seksoloki) stanovnitva i nedostatak institucionalizovanog, savremenog koncepta planiranja porodice. Meutim,
nedovoljno znanje je bitan elemenat osnove gotovo svih utvrenih uzroka nesklada izmeu shvatanja o potrebi regulisanja raanja i
naina na koji ono treba da se ostvari. U tom smislu, irenje relevantnih znanja mora biti obezbeeno, tako da vrednost kontracepcije kao
preventivne i zdravstvene mere bude u mnogo veoj meri razumljiva i za mukarce i za ene. Ali, kao to se vidi iz odgovora o
reprodukciji stanovnitva, informacija sama po sebi nije dovoljna. Vrednosti, stavovi i norme treba, takoe, da se promene sticanjem
odgovarajuih znanja.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1993,1-2/1994
godina XXXI-XXXII
Petrovi, Mina
PROBLEM NEDOVOLJNOG RAANJA IZ INTERDISCIPLINARNE PERSPEKTIVE
INSUFFICIENT FERTILITY AS OBSERVED FROM THE MULTIDISCIPLINARY PERSPECTIVE
13-28
K.r.: fertilitet, sociologija, demografska istraivanja, teorija, roditeljstvo
K.w.: fertility, sociology, demographic research, theory, parenthood
U cilju odreenja jednog od relevatnih analitikih okvira teorijskih i empirijskih istraivanja fenomena raanja odnosno rodiiteljstva kao
drutvene uloge u savremenom drutvu, u tekstu su razmatrane prednosti i nedostatci postojeih istraivakih pristupa (mikro, mezo i
makro analitikih nivoa). Osnovni nedostatak nalazi se u odsustvu neophodne povezanosti svih deterministikih nivoa posmatranja.
Polazei od stava da objanjenje tranzicije fertiliteta treba traiti u teorijama drutvene promene, te da nizak nivo fertiliteta treba
posmatrati kao drutvenu opciju u procesu modernizacije, autor istie neophodnost primene multidisciplinarnog pristupa ovom
demografskom problemu i posebnu panju posveuje saradnji sociologije i demografije. Zalaui se za istraivanje reproduktivnog
ponaanja u kontekstu konkretnog socijalnog okruenja primenom istorijskog, strukturalnog i socijalno-antropolokog pristupa autor
skree naunu panju na socioloki koncept svakodnevnog ivota, koji zadovoljava i dva osnovna zahteva objanjenja svakog socijalnog
fenomena (i demografskog u meri u kojoj je socijalno uslovljen). To su neophodnost uvaavanja svih deterministikih sfera reprodukcije
stanovnitva (kako globalno strukturalnog tako i individualnog determinizma i njihovih posrednika), i adekvatna definicija konkretnog
socijalnog okruenja koja se sa sociolokog stanovita postie tek na nivou analize svakodnevnog ivota ljudi.
The initial part of this paper gives a brief critical overview of the results obtained by applying the micro, mezo and macro approach to the
demographic analysis of insufficient fertility.
In order to overcome a lack of or inadequacy in linking of all deterministic levels of observation and, in view of the complexity of this
demographic issue, the author argues in favor of applying a multidisciplinary approach. Particular attention is given to the combined
approach from the sociological and demographic points of view. The sociological analysis starts by identifying which general conditions
of the social system (social relations, the prevailing system of values, principles of functioning, etc.) create certain demographic changes
and determine the social position of an individual and a family in terms of reproduction. The existing sociological explanations of a
transition in fertility are analysed using theories of social change based on theories of modernization. Such theories range from the
medium scale normativistic ones to those based on a holistic approach. However, these discussions start from the relatively abstract
general characteristics of the industrial and post-industrial society which are then applied on the voluminous demographic statistics
without any analysis of the relevant society from a sociological point of view. The author points out that only by analysing the concrete
social environment is it possible to get an insight into the complexity of the deterministic system of reproduction, lack of automatism in
economic and demographic development and the significance of tradition, culture, political decisions, etc. The question arises within this
context as to the level of generalization that can be provided by the fertility theory in view of the nature of deterministic structures which
specify this phenomenon. The author agrees that every explaination of social behavior (including reproduction - related behavior) must
be viewed within the context of historical conditions in which it takes place. Thus, there can be no general teory of fertility to suit every
society at any time unless a strictly formal approach is sought. On the other hand, the theoretical standpoints applied here remain within
the abstract functionalism and neglect the relative autonomity of an individual's determinism since a higher degree of independance of an
individual is considered to be a consequence of functional differentiation of the social system and the relevant process of normative
culture generalization. Thus, the author argues that the applied structural - functional analysis must be supplemented by the historical anthropological approach which leads us to realize that parenthood as detrmined by tha mass consumer society is to a large extent
standardised while the processes of its individualization are manifest in still further cuts in reproductive norms.
The author finds that the sociological category of everyday life provides a proper analythical framework for application of all necessary
approaches ie, recognition of the relative independance of individual determinism, historical aspect of the analysis and linking of all
necessary deterministic levels.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1993,1-2/1994
godina XXXI-XXXII
Raduki, Nada
KARAKTERISTIKE I ZNAAJ NEPOSREDNIH FAKTORA FERTILITETA STANOVNITVA
THE MAIN FEATURES AND SIGNIFICANCE OF DIRECT FERTILITY DETERMINANTS
29-43
K.r.: determinante fertiliteta, fekonditet, starost pri sklapanju braka, celibat, kontracepcija, abortus
K.w.: fertility determinants, fecundity, age at marriage, celibacy, contraception, abortion
Osnovna premisa od koje se polazi u radu je meusobna povezanost i uslovljenost svih faktora fertiliteta, koji imaju posredan ili
neposredan uticaj na plodnost stanovnitva. Polazei od toga analizirani su najvaniji neposredni faktori, njihov znaaj i osnovne
karakteristike koji uslovljavaju odreeni nivo fertiliteta. Ispitivanje neposrednih faktora (fekonditet, kontracepcija, starost pri sklapanju
braka, celibat, abortus, i dr.) ima za cilj da utvrdi vanost svakog od ovih faktora u oblasti reprodukcije ali u kontekstu istorijskih,
ekonomskih, socijalnih i kulturnih okolnosti i u odreenim etapama demografske tranzicije svakog drutva. U radu je istaknuto da bi za
bolje poznavanje neposrednih uzroka fertiliteta bila neophodna dublja istraivanja nekih osnovnih biolokih fenomena koji su do sada
relativno malo analizirani.
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Population fertility is conditioned by numerous direct and indirect determinants. Significance of direct determinants differs from one
socio-economic formation to the other as it is conditioned by the economic, social and cultural environment of each population. In
traditional societies, the main role is played by the biological determinants (age at marriage, fecundity, sterility, traditional sexual
abstinence, etc.) while the strongest direct impact on fertility in modern societies comes from the socio-economic determinants
(contraception, abortion, celibacy, etc.). Demographic studies clearly show that changes in some direct variables may have a significant
impact on the fertility of population.
Birth control represents the main direct cause of differences in fertility levels across different populations. It is a sociological factor
which directly affected the decline and the ensuing low level of fertility of populations in the majority of developed countries. Though
other direct determinants also affect the level of fertility (divorce, age of women, celibacy, sterility), contraception and abortion are the
main ones which determine the level of fertility in these countries. Some direct determinants are almost irrelevant to the fertility level in
these countries but remain very relevant to the fertility level in the underdeveloped ones where birth control is practiced to a very limited
extent only. These determinants include age of women at first marriage (which determines the average number of fecund years, ie time
during which a woman is exposed to the conception risk, marital sexual abstinence practiced for religious or traditional reasons after
delivery or during lactation), lactation infecundity (which lengthens the intergenesial interval and has a birth control impact), etc.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1993,1-2/1994
godina XXXI-XXXII
Rani, Miroljub
FERTILITET SRPSKOG ENSKOG STANOVNITVA (PO POPISU STANOVNITVA SFRJ 1981)
FERTILITY OF FEMALE SERB POPULATION
45-72
K.r.: stanovnitvo, fertilitet, reprodukcija, nacionalni sastav
K.w.: population, fertility, reproduction, ethnic composition
Autor na osnovu rezultata popisa stanovnitva iz 1981. godine analizira fertilitet srpskog i enskog stanovnitva ostalih nacionalnosti u
bivoj SFR Jugoslaviji. Na poetku je analiziran odnos ena starijih od 15 godina koje su raale i koje nisu, kao i njihov starosni sastav.
Srpkinje su uporedo posmatrane sa pripadnicama drugih naroda i nacionalih manjina, a kasnije je isti metod primenjen u ispitivanju
fertiliteta po generacijama.
Opta i specifine stope fertiliteta razmatrane su na osnovu podataka vitalne statistike u peridu nakon Drugog svetskog rata. Uporeeni
su pokazatelji za stanovnitvo centralnog dela Srbije, Slovenije i Kosova i Metohije, kao nacionalno visoko homogenih podruja sa
razliitim odlikama fertiliteta.
Ukupan generacijski fertliteta, sa posebnom panjom na srpsko ensko stanovnitvo ispitan je na osnovu podataka popisa iz 1981.
godine i to na dva nivoa. Prvi se odnosi na stanje i promene fertiliteta Srpkinja i ostalih etnikih grupa ena u Srbiji, a drugi na ocenu
razlika u visini generacijskog fertiliteta Srpkinja i drugih ena u podrujima izvan Srbije.
The author begins by relating the total number of women over 15 (by five year age groups) to the number of women who had given
birth, and analyses age distribution. The share of Serb women who had given birth by 1981 relative to women of Croatian, Slovenian,
Muslim, Monte Negrin or Macedonian nationality (plus the Albanian and Hungarian minorities) is quite high. Besides, Serb women
were found to represent one of the oldest populations of the former Yugoslavia.
The general fertility rate for Serb women was compared to that registered for Slovenians (these two populations have entered into the
post-transitional phase) and ethnic Albanians who have only recently started to register changes in high fertility trends. The general
fertility rates of the above three groups in 1953 and 1981 were: 92.8 and 53.0; 84.8 and 56.6; 217.7 and 158.7 per thousand, respectively.
The age-specific fertility rates have shown that Serb and Slovenian women usually stop bearing children around the age of 35 while
ethnic Albanians continue to register high fertility rates in later years as well.
Particular attention is given to the generation fertility of women from 15 to 75 and over, and the analysis focused on the average number
of children per women. First, fertility of Serb women is compared to that of women of different ethnic origin (nations and national
minorities) resident in Serbia, and second, fertility of Serb women to that of women of different ethnic origin residing outside the
territory of Serbia. The results obtained point to ethnic and regional differences as caused by historic, economic, cultural and other
factors characterizing individual environments and phases of social development.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1993,1-2/1994
godina XXXI-XXXII
Ponjavi, Zoran
PRAVNI OKVIRI ZA OSTVARIVANJE PRAVA NA VETAKU OPLODNJU
LEGAL FRAMWORK FOR REALIZATION OF A RIGHT TO ARTIFICIAL INSEMINATION
73-82
K.r.: pravo, vetaka oplodnja, uslovi, terapeutski cilj, interes deteta
K.w.: a right, artificial insamination, conditions, therapeutic purposes, child's interest
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U radu su obraena neka pravna pitanja vezana za asistiranu prokreaciju i to ona koja se tiu pravnih okvira za njeno ostvarivanje. Ova
pitanja, uglavnom, nisu regulisana u porodinom zakonodavstvu SR Jugoslavije. Autor je, meutim, eleo pokazati da i bez donoenja
posebnih pravila ili dok se ona ne donesu postoji dovoljno elemenata za vrenje asistirane prokreacije. Analizirana su postojea pravila
naeg prava, ali i osnovni postulati medicinske nauke, etike itd.
Prema autoru okviri za vrenje prava na vetaku oplodnju bili bi: njeno vrenje samo u terapeutskom cilju i drugo, mora se voditi rauna
prvenstveno o interesima deteta koje e se roditi.
New aspects of procreation or the so called "assisted procreation" have not been completely regulated in Yugoslavia. In practice, all
decisions are made by a doctor who performs artificial insemination, which is the most common method of assisted procreation in
Yugoslavia. In this paper the author concludes that, it is necessary to draw certain general conclusions from the basic medical postulates
and ethics that must be obeyed in each case of artificial insemination. This can be done even in the absance of special regulations or
while in the absance of they are being made.
Two main conditions must be fulfilled in every case of artificial insemination. First, decision to apply this method must be made for
therapeutic purpose only and second, interests of a child must be most consientionsly consider.
Regarding the first condition, it is concluded that artificial (heterologous) insemination can be performed only in cases of male infertility
a possibility that a child to be born might have serious physical or mental deformity. The paper also deals with a special analysis of
child's interests in cases of insemination of women who are neither married nor have an illegitimate relationship (single mothers), and in
cases of post mortem insemination. Since it is the interest of a child to have both a father and a mother, the only right solution is to reject
both possibilities.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1993,1-2/1994
godina XXXI-XXXII
urev, Branislav S.
DEMOGRAFSKI RAZVOJ GRADA I SELA
URBAN AND RURAL DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT
83-94
K.r.: industrijalizacija, demografska tranzicija, urbanizacija, migracije, prirodni prirataj, etape razvoja, projekcije
stanovnitva
K.w.: industrialization, demographic trnasition, urbanization, migration, natural increase, phases of development,
population projections
U radu se istiu osnovne etape demografskog razvoja grada i sela tokom industrijske i demografske tranzicije. Na osnovu iskustava
razvijenih zemalja ukazuje se na karakteristike savremenog demografskog razvoja grada i sela, ispituju njihovi demografski potencijali i
nagovetava budui razvoj. Evidencija koja postoji u razvijenim zemljama sveta pokazuje da je industrijalizaciju pratilo i najmanje pet
razliitih odnosa izmeu demografskog razvoja sela i grada, a koji su rezultat prelaza od preindustrijskog ka industrijskom (u kome se
javljaju i dve etape demografske tranzicije) i, na kraju, uslovno reeno, ka postindustrijskom drutvu.
Osnovni proces koji je izazvao ruralno urbane razlike u demografskom razvoju bile su i ostale migracije selo-grad. Primer razvijenih
zemalja pokazuje da ovaj proces progresivno iscrpljuje demografske potencijale sela i na kraju dovodi do njegovog izumiranja, a to sve
prati i globalno sniavanje prirodnog prirataja. Zbog selektivnosti po starosti migranata, za koje se pretpostavlja da ponajvie pripadaju
kategoriji mlaeg sredovenog, radno sposobnog stanovnitva i zbog tradicionalno visokog fertiliteta (ili barem vieg nego u gradu)
oekivalo bi se da ruralna populacija ima vikove vrlo mladog i starog stanovnitva, a manjkove stanovnitva u reproduktivnom periodu.
Dostupni podaci za neke od evropskih zemalja, meutim, ne podravaju ova oekivanja.
Kada bi savremeno seosko stanovnitvo imalo starosnu strukturu kao to je ima ukupna populacija natalitet u selima bio bi vei u svim
posmatranim evropskim zemljama, izuzev u Austriji i Nemakoj. Nasuprot, mortalitet bi bio manji, izuzev u Austriji i Holandiji. To
znai da bi u odsustvu migracija selo-grad prirodni prirataj bio vei u svim zemljama, izuzev Austrije i Holandije.
U razvijenim zemljama stope emigracije sa sela i danas su visoke i vie nego u nerazvijenom svetu, ali je baza za dalja odseljavanja sve
manja. Od svih evropskih zemalja jedino Poljska ima zadovoljavajue uslove za demografski razvoj seoskog stanovnitva, pod uslovom
da obim emigracija ne prevazie utvrene limite koji su potrebni za odravanje konstantog broja seoskog stanovnitva. U ostalim
delovima razvijenog sveta seosko stanovnitvo verovatno e nastaviti da se smanjuje u apsolutnim iznosima.
Migration is the basic process which has caused urban rural differences in growth rates. Its prolonged duration has exhausted
demographic capacities of the rural part of population and made the urban part stronger. Somewhat surprisingly, net outmigration rates
from rural areas are still high. However, the basis for contemporary outmigration is very small, and thus limits the growth of cities (there
are small changes in numbers). At the same time, this process leads to further deterioration of demographic conditions in the countryside. Still, the proportion of urban population is still increasing, this time due to a decrease in population living in rural areas.
Because of age selectivity of migrants who are presumed to be younger, more able-bodied and traditionally highly fertility in the
country-side, rural population is expected to have surplus of very young and old inhabitants and shortage within the reproductive age
span. However, contemporary data from some European countries do not support such a conclusion.
If standardized on the age distribution of the entire population, rural birth rates would be larger in all countries except in Austria and
Germany. On the contrary, death rates would be lower (exceptions are Austria and the Netherlands). As a result, if there was no
rural-urban migration, natural increase would be registred in all countries except in Austria and the Netherlands.
It can be inferred that only Poland has had satisfactory conditions for demographic development of its country-side population. If
manages not to lose (by death and outmigration) more than 34 percent of its rural population per cohort by the mean age of the fertility
schedule (which is near 30 years), Poland will be able to maintain a constant size of its rural population (any cohort will produce the
same number of births) and consequently to postpone the demographic decline not only of the rural, but of its entire population.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1993,1-2/1994
godina XXXI-XXXII
Milievi, Goran
ANALIZA MOGUNOSTI UNIFIKACIJE KRITERIJUMA ZA RAZLIKOVANJE GRADSKIH OD NEGRADSKIH
NASELJA
ANALYSIS OF A POSSIBILITY TO UNIFY CRITERIA TO DIFFERENTIATE URBAN FROM NON-URBAN
SETTLEMENTS
95-108
K.r.: prag, domet i rang robe, gustina naseljenosti, gradska renta, granice grada, kriterijum
K.w.: threshold, range, rank, population density, land rent, minimum and maximum city size, criterion
Cilj rada je da se pronae reenje za problem neuporedivosti statistikih podataka o nivou urbanizacije na meunarodnom planu.
Primenom kvalitativnih metoda, analizirana su mogua praktina i teorijska reenja za odreivanje donje i gornje granice veliine grada.
Korienjem kategorijalnog aparata teorije centralnih mesta, konstatovalo se da je, u oba sluaja, kao pogodan indikator, mogue izabrati
odgovarajue reprezentativno gradsko dobro.
Kao najbolji indikatori, pokazali su se infrastrukturne mree poetnog i zavrnog praga komunalne opremljenosti, gustina naseljenosti i
prosena cena gradskog zemljita. No, nedostatak potrebnih statistikih podataka (posebno u zemljama u razvoju), favorizuje kritinu
veliinu grada, merenu brojem stanovnika, na raun ovih, pogodnijih indikatora. Ipak, konstatovano je da bi i izbor bilo koje veliine
grada (u rasponu od 2.000 do 10.000 stanovnika) za traeni jedinstveni kriterijum, bio dovoljno veliko poboljanje u odnosu na sadanju
praksu.
Polazei od problema koje arenilo kriterijuma za identifikovanje gradskih naselja postavlja pred meunarodna poreenja nivoa
urbanizacije, u prvom delu rada se ispituje minimalna, granina veliina grada, a u drugom maksimalna, dok se u zavrnom delu
ocenjuju mogunosti primene pojedinih indikatora koji su se prethodno pokazali kao najpogodniji. U prvom delu su, najpre, sagledani
uzroci problema, vezani za razlike meu zemljama u pogledu njihove tradicije, nivoa razvoja i gustine nasljenosti. Zatim su date
sugestije za poboljlanje postojeeg stanja i, najzad, dati je teorijska interpretacija ovih problema u terminima teorije centralnih mesta.
Postupak je, uglavnom, ponovljen i u drugom delu, pri emu se pokazalo da su za ulogu graninog, reprezentativnog gradskog dobra, u
oba sluaja, najpogodnije mree komunalne infrastrukture. S tim, to je kod donje granice re o mreama poetnog, a kod gornje, re o
mreama zavrnog praga komunalne opremljenosti, odnosno o proizvodima najnieg i najvieg gradskog ranga. Kao pogodan sintezni
indikator, a donekle i kao supstitut za odgovarajue komunalne mree, pokazali su se i prosena cena zemljita i gustina naseljnosti u
gradu, ali je kao kljuni problem njihove primene navedeno nepostojanje odgovorajuih statistikih podataka, pogotovo u zemljama u
razvoju.
Starting with the problem which too wide a range of criteria for identifying urban setllements, used by different countries poses for
international comparisons of the achieved level of urbanization (in the first part minimal and in the second part, maximal) the critical city
size has been analyzed. In the third part comments are given on the possibility to apply some of the indicators, that appeared to be most
suitable. First part begins with discerning the causes of the problem dealing with the differences across countries in respect of their
tradition, level of development, and population density. It goes on to suggest some practical improvements, and end with theoretical
interpretation of the problem in terms of the central place theory.
The same procedure is mainly repeated in the second part of the article, and it is proved again that communal infrastructure networks are
best suited for the role of the marginal, representative city good (service). Only, in cases of the minimal level of urbanization it is the
infrastructure networks of the initial stage and in cases of the maximum level of urbanization the networks of the final stage of
infrastructure development that are the most applicable. It should be added that the average urban land price and density of population
have proved to be the suitable, synthetic indicators (in a way, also as substitutes for the corresponding communal networks) but, a lack of
necessary statistical data has been mentioned as the key obstacle to their implementation.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1993,1-2/1994
godina XXXI-XXXII
Penev, Slavica
DEMOGRAFSKE INVESTICIJE U SRBIJI
DEMOGRAPHIC INVESTMENTS IN SERBIA
109-122
K.r.: demografske investicije, efikasnost investiranja, nerazvijena podruja, stopa rasta stanovnitva
K.w.: demographic investments, investment eficiency, underdeveloped regions, population growth rate
Rad predstavlja empirijsku analizu demografskih investicija na podruju tri regiona Srbije (Kosovu i Metohiji, Centralnoj Srbiji i
Vojvodini). Analizirajui kretanje stopa demografskih investicija, autor ukazuje na meusobnu zavisnost visine ovih stopa i stepena
privredne razvijenosti pojedinih regiona. Pri tom navodi da nedovoljno razvijene regione po pravilu karakteriu vie stope demografskih
investicija uzrokovane niom efikasnou investicija ali ne retko i viim stopama rasta stanovnitva u odnosu na razvijenije regione.
Analiza demografskih investicija (pod kojima se podrazumeva onaj deo drutvenog proizvoda koji je potrebno investirati da bi se s
obzirom na porast stanovnitva, drutveni proizvod zadrao na istom, ve dostignutom nivou) omoguava istovremeno praenje dejstva
efikasnosti investicija i demografskih kretanja na privredni razvoj. Ona je naroito znaajna za zemlje, kao i za nerazvijene regione, koji
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se po pravilu odlikuju visokim stopama rasta stanovnitva i niskom efikasnou investicija.

Empirijska analiza kretanja stopa demografskih investicija na tri regiona Srbije (Kosovo i Metohija, Centralna Srbija i Vojvodina) je
veoma reprezentativna sa aspekta utvrivanja meuzavisnosti izmeu visine stopa demografskih investicija i nivoa privredne razvijenosti
regiona.
U periodu dinaminog privrednog rasta 1966-80. godine na podruju cele Srbije, zabeleene su veoma izraene razlike u pogledu visine
stopa demografskih investicija. Kosovo i Metohija kao najnerazvijeniji region Srbije, je zbog veoma visokih stopa rasta stanovnitva od
2.5% (Vojvodina 0.4% i Centralna Srbija 0.8%) i niske efikasnosti investicija (dvostruko nie u odnosu na druga dva regiona) imalo
dvanaest puta viu stopu demografskih investicija u odnosu na Vojvodinu, i est puta u odnosu na Centralnu Srbiju.
U periodu 1981-90. kada podruje cele Srbije biva pogoeno veoma izraenom privrednom krizom, usled enormnog pada efikasnosti
investicija potpuno se gube razlike u visini demografskih investicija izmeu ova tri nejednako razvijena regiona. U uslovima krize, vie
ni na jednom podruju postojei, znatno smanjeni obim investicija, nije bio dovoljan za pokrie demografskih investicija, pa je dolo do
pada drutvenog proizvoda po stanovniku. Ovako nepovoljna kretanja su jo veim intenzitetom nastavljena i u periodu posle 1990.
godine kao posledica nepovoljnih politikih i ratnih zbivanja na podruju cele nekadanje SFRJ, i kao posledica uvedenih ekonomskih
sankcija prema novoformiranoj SR Jugoslaviji. Dolo je i do potpunog zamiranja investicione aktivnosti na svim podrujima Srbije, pa je
u tim uslovima nemogue obezbediti ni odravanje drutvenog proizvoda po stanovniku na postojeem nivou.
The analysis of demographic investments (defined as the part of domestic product which have to be invested to keep the level of
domestic product per capita at the level achived) enables us to, at the same time, observe the impact of investment efficiency and
demographic developments on economic performance. Such analysis is particularly significant for countries and underdeveloped regions
which, as a rule, are characterized by high rates of population growth and low efficiency of investment.
The empirical analysis of demographic investments across three regions of Serbia (Kosovo and Metohia, Central Serbia and Vojvodina)
is quite representative from the point of view of determining the interdependance of the rates of growth in demographic investment and
the level of development of the respective regions.
During the 1966-80 period of a dynamic economic growth, the differences in demographic investments rates registered across Serbia
were very pronounced. Due to a very high, ie 2.5% population growth rate in Kosovo and Metohia, the least developed region of Serbia
(as against 0.4% in Vojvodina and 0.8% in Central Serbia), and low efficiency of investments (only half of the level registered in other
two regions), the rate of demographic investments in this region was twelve times higher than in Vojvodina and six times higher than in
Central Serbia.
In the period from 1981 to 1990, when whole of Serbia was under a severe economic strain and the efficiency of investment declined
drastically, the differences in demographic investments between the three unequally developed regions were no longer discernable. The
actual much decreased level of investments in a crisis stricken environment was no longer sufficient to cover demographic investments
which thus entailed a cut in domestic product per capita. Gaining in intensity, such unfavourable developments continued into the period
after 1990 due to the unfavourable political developments and armed conflicts throughout the territory of the former SFR Yugoslavia and
the ensuing UN economic sanctions against the newly formed Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. As the investment activity came to a
standstill throughout Serbia it became impossible to maintainsecure the achieved level of social product per capita.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1993,1-2/1994
godina XXXI-XXXII
Matkovi, Gordana
STANOVNITVO I RADNA SNAGA NA PODRUJU GOLIJE
POPULATION AND LABOUR FORCE OF THE GOLIJA REGION
123-134
K.r.: stanovnitvo, radna snaga, migracije, depopulacija, nerazvijenost
K.w.: population, labour force, migration, depopulation, underdevelopmnet
Demografska analiza podruja Golije izraena je za potrebe studije o privrednom razvoju tog regiona. Istraivanje kretanja i osnovnih
karakteristika stanovnitva na ovom podruju sprovedeno je na nivou naselja od kojih neka imaju ekstremna demografska obeleja.
Razliit nacionalni sastav, veliina naselja i njihov poloaj uslovili su polarizaciju naselja po osnovu prirodnog prirataja, starosne
strukture, veliine prosenog domainstva, kao i u stopama ekonomske aktivnosti, naroito enskog stanovnitva. Slinosti meu
naseljima mogu se nai u depopulacionim tendencijama, pre svega usled negativnog migracionog salda, u niskom nivou obrazovanosti
stanovnitva, kao i u visokom udelu poljoprivrednog stanovnitva i poljoprivredne radne snage. Velike razlike meu pojedinim
naseljima, pranjenje podruja u celini i njegova nerazvijenost dali su posebna obeleja i znaaj ovom istraivanju.
Demographic analyses of the Golija region represents a part of the broader study conducted for the purpose of creating a socio-economic
development program for this underdeveloped area. The research is carried out at the settlement level. Differences in population
composition by nationality, size of the settlements and their location generated settlement polarization by natural increase, age structure,
size of the average household and also by economic activity rates. On the other hand, similarities may be found in the depopulation
tendencies as caused by the excessive migration flow, in the low educational level of the population, and in the high share of the
agricultural population and agricultural labour force. Considerable differences between particular settlements, extensive depopulation
and underdevelopment of this region gave special importance to these analysis.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/komentar
broj 3-4/1993,1-2/1994
godina XXXI-XXXII
Raevi, Mirjana, Ljubica Srdi-orovi
EVROPSKA POPULACIONA KONFERENCIJA, ENEVA, 23-26. MART 1993.
135-140
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1993,1-2/1994
godina XXXI-XXXII
Mojsilovi, Milanka
MIRJANA RAEVI "KA RAZUMEVANJU ABORTUSA U SRBIJI"
141-143
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1993,1-2/1994
godina XXXI-XXXII
Breznik, Duan
B. RADIVOJEVI I LJ. GAEA "KOHORTNI MORTALITET STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE"
144-147
asopis Stanovnitvo
bibliografija
broj 3-4/1993,1-2/1994
godina XXXI-XXXII
Raduki, Nada
RADOVI OBJAVLJENI U ASOPISU "STANOVNITVO" U PERIODU 1963-1993.
149-211
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1994
godina XXXII
Avramov, Dragana, Marc Callens, Robert Cliquet
POPULATION "CLIMATE" AND POPULATION POLICY IN BELGIUM
POPULACIONA "KLIMA" I POPULACIONA POLITIKA U BELGIJI
3-26
K.w.: population policy, demographic trends, parenthood, solidarity
K.r.: populaciona politika, demografske tendencije, roditeljstvo, solidarnost
The authors give an overview of the socio-demographic background and discuss features of the childbearing context which may be
contributing to maintaining fertility at below replacement level in Belgium. Special attention is given to the pattern of female labour
force participation and child care coping strategies.
Data from Survey on Population and Welfare conducted by Population and Family Study Centre (CBGS) of the Ministry of the
Flemish Community are analyzed in view of assesing whether the population would approve attempts by the government to modify
demographic trends and what the expectations for the social assistance in the family building process are.
Three aspects of population "climate" are discussed in the paper: how the population perceives the demographic issues and the
childbearing context in Belgium, how respondents evaluate policies implemented by the state in the domain of the population and
family life, and, what their unmet expectations are. Finally, the authors look at the degree of social solidarity and the willingness of
respondents to bear the cost of measures which they perceive as necessary and family friendly.
Autori daju kratak osvrt na socio-demografske tokove u Belgiji i analiziraju inioce koji doprinose odravanju fertiliteta ispod nivoa
nunog za obnavljanje stanovnitva u svetlu uslova pod kojima ene raaju i porodice podiu decu. Posebna panja je posveena
analizi promenama u ueu ena na tritu rada i modelima zbrinjavanja dece.
Podaci iz ankete o stanovnitvu i socijalnoj zatiti koju je sproveo Centar za istraivanje stanovnitva i porodice Ministarstva
flamanske zajednice osnova su za ocenu da li bi stanovnitvo podralo eventualne pokuaje vlade da utie na promenu demografskih
tendencija i kakva su oekivanja ispitanika u pogledu socijalne podrke u toku procesa formiranja porodice.
Tri aspekta populacione "klime" su osvetljena u ovom radu: kako stanovnitvo ocenjuje demografske tokove i uslove za raanje i
podizanje dece u Belgiji, kako ispitanici ocenjuju vaee mere populacione politike usmerene ka porodici, i koja su njihova
neispunjena oekivanja. Na kraju, autori ocenjuju stepen drutvene solidarnosti kroz spremnost ispitanika da uestvuju u snoenju
trokova mera za koje sami smatraju da su nune i da bi pogodovale poboljanju uslova ivota porodice.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
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Risti, Jasna
ZDRAVSTVENI RADNICI I PLANIRANJE PORODICE
MEDICAL STAFF AND FAMILY PLANNING
27-52
K.r.: zdravstveni radnici, planiranje porodice, kontracepcija, abortus
K.w.: medical staff, family planning, contraception, abortion
Cilj istraivanje je bio utvrivanje stepena uticaja razliitih profila zdravstvenih radnika u domovima zdravlja na formiranje stavova i
sticanje znanja u populaciji o regulaciji raanja.
Ispitivani su stavovi i ponaanje o regulisanju raanja sedam razliitih profila zdravstvenih radnika. Anketirano je pet razliitih
profila lekara (specijaliste ginekologije i akuerstva, lekare opte medicine, specijaliste opte medicine, specijaliste medicine rada,
specijaliste pedijatrije). Pored lekara ovim istraivanjem su obuhvaene i polivalentne patronane sestre i babice.
Istraivanje je sprovedeno u 11 domova zdravlja u Beogradu. Ukupno je anketirano 437 zdravstvenih radnika. Svaki anketirani
zdravstveni radnik je dobio skor pozitivnih stavova i ponaanja. Statistika znaajnost razlika izmeu anketiranih lekara je testirana
analizom varijanse (Onwey-test).
Dobijeni rezultati pokazuju da se lekari specijalisti ginekologije i akuerstva po svojim stavovima znaajno razlikuju od svih ostalih
zdravstvenih radnika. Razlike izmeu ostalih zdravstvenih radnika nisu prisutne. Svi anketirani zdravstveni radnici ne smatraju
kontracepciju neophodnom. Najpozitivnije stavove po tom pitanju imaju lekari specijalisti ginekologije i akuerstva i lekari
specijalisti medicine rada, mada i meu njima 1/3 lekara ne smatra da je kontracepcija neophodna.
U pogledu ponaanja lekari specijalisti ginekologije i akuerstva su imali najvei skor pozitivnog ponaanja i od njih se po ponaanju
najmanje razlikuju lekari opte medicine, patronane sestre i lekari specijalisti pedijatri. Veina zdravstvenih radnika koristi namerni
prekid trudnoe u planiranju svoje porodice, a oko 40% nije do sada koristilo kontracepciju. Lekari su najee koristili i
preporuivali svojim pacijentima kondom. Interesantan je podatak da i meu ginekolozima, koji su najobrazovaniji kadar za rad u
ovoj oblasti, samo 1/3 do sada nije prekidala trudnou, da je vie od jedne treine imalo dva i vie namernih abortusa i da jedna
treina nije koristila kontracepciju.
Zdravstveni radnici se po svom ponaanju ne razlikuju znaajno od ostale populacije. Njihovo znanje je neosporno vee ali
nedovoljno da utie na izmenu njihovih stavova i ponaanja.
Da bi zdravstveni radnici mogli da obavljaju uspeno svoju ulogu u planiranju porodice neophodna im je kontinuirana edukacija i
motivacija za rad.
The purpose of this research is to determine the degree of influence of various profiles of medical staff employed in public health
centres, on the formation of attitudes and education of population in respect of birth control.
Attitudes and behaviour related to birth control were tested on seven different profiles of medical staff. Five different profiles of
doctors were polled (a specialist in gynecology and obstetrics, a general practitioner, a specialist in industrial medecine and a
pediatrican). Besides doctors, the research also comprised all-service visiting nurses and midwives.
The research was made conducted in 11 public health institutes throughout Belgrade. The poll was conducted on 437 medical staff.
Each of the polled showed positive attitudes and behaviour. The statistical importance of differences among doctors was tested by
variant analysis (Onwey test).
The results show that the attitudes of specialists in gynecology and obstetrics are markedly different from those of all other medical
staff. Differences among others are not pronounced. None of the medical staff polled considered contraception as necessary.
Gynecologists and specialists in industrial medecine have shown the most positive attitude towards the issue, although as much as
one third of doctors did not consider contraception as necessary.
In terms of behaviour, specialist in gynecology and obstetrics scored most points on positive behaviour. General practitioners,
visiting nurses and pediatricians scored a similar number of points. The majority of medical staff resorted induced abortion in their
family planning, whereas almost 40% have never used any contraception. Doctors most frequently use condom and recommend it to
their patients. The most interesting fact is that even among gynecologists, being the most educated staff in the area, only one third
have never had an abortion as a birth control method. Besides, more than one third have had two or more intentional abortions and
one third of them never use contraception.
Medical staff do not differ significantly in their behaviour from the rest of the people. Their knowledge is indisputable, but does not
sufficiently influence the change in their attitudes and behaviour.
Further education and stronger work motivation are necessary for medical staff to successfully play their role in family planning.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1994
godina XXXII
Raevi, Mirjana
ZDRAVSTVENI ASPEKTI PROGRAMA ZA PLANIRANJE PORODICE
HEALTH ASPECTS OF THE FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMME
53-64
K.r.: planiranje porodice, program planiranja porodice, zdravlje ene, zdravlje deteta, reproduktivne norme
K.w.: family planning, family planning programme, woman's health, child's health, reproductive norms
Planiranje porodice je bitna komponenta programa zdravstvene zatite mnogih zemalja poto ivot i zdravlje ena i dece u velikoj
meri zavise od usvojenog modela reprodukcije. Na visokonatalitetnom podruju ena raa i mnogo i esto i dugo tokom
prokreativnog perioda i sa raanjem poinje, po pravilu, u adolescenciji. Svaka trudnoa nosi sa sobom niz rizika, ali veliki broj
trudnoa, raanje u vremenskim intervalima kraim od dve godine, raanje pre 20. ili posle 35. godine, izlae enu veim rizicima
povezanim sa zaeem i raanjem. Na primer, ruptura uterusa i hemoragija su daleko ee kod ena sa pet i vie trudnoa u
reproduktivnoj istoriji. Ili, obnavljanje nutricionih zaliha i energetskog nivoa kao i normalizacija ili ublaavanje sekvela prethodnog
raanja je oteana ako je period izmeu dve sukcesivne trudnoe manji od dve godine. Takoe, posle 35. godine starosti ene raste
incidencija spontanih abortusa i ansa za poroajnu traumu a trudnoa na poetku reproduktivnog perioda pretstavlja fizioloki stres
za organizam i povezana je sa odlaganjem prenatalne dijagnostike. Insistiranje na visokim reproduktivnim normama podrazumeva da
ena raa i kada joj je ugroeno zdravlje. Takoe, briga za mnogo dece u velikom broju sluajeva podrazumeva da ena nema
dovoljno hrane, vremena i novca za svoje zdravlje. Po pravilu opisani reproduktivni model je karakteristian za nerazvijene sredine
sa svim rizicima koje ivljenje u takvoj sredini nosi.
Zdravlje deteta, specijalno u prvim godinama ivota, je visoko zavisno od zdravlja majke za vreme trudnoe, poroaja i
puerperijuma. Dete roeno iz trudnoe vieg reda ugroeno je usled poveanog rizika za slabiji intrauterini rast, smanjenu teinu na
roenju i poroajne povrede. Takoe, javlja se i kompeticija izmeu dece u velikim porodicama za brigu i panju roditelja kao i za
uglavnom ograniene materijalne mogunosti. Usled fizioloke i psiholoke nezrelosti adolescentkinja njihova deca mogu imati
ugroeno zdravlje i lou prenatalnu i postnatalnu brigu, dok se trauma na roenju i genetska abnormalnost signifikantno ee
javljaju kod dece ije su majke stare 35 i vie godina. Ugroeno zdravlje majke, kompeticija meu decom slinih godina za majine i
porodine resurse, prevremeni poroaj i niska teina na roenju, kratak period dojenja, transmisije infektivnih bolesti usled bliskog
kontakta u porodici sa vie dece slinih godina starosti su razlozi ugroenog zdravlja i ivota dece roenih u kratkom vremenskom
intervalu u odnosu na prethodnu trudnou. Na kraju, deca koja nisu eljena u momentu zaea imaju vei rizik za telesni i psiholoki
morbiditet i mortalitet, jer se podiu u manje optimalnim psiholokim i socijalnim uslovima od eljene.
Indirektni zdravstveni efekti programa za planiranje porodice na visokonatalitetnom podruju su podjednako znaajni za morbiditet i
majki i dece. Nabrojaemo najvanije. Sticanje sposobnosti kontrole nad tako prirodnim procesom kao to je raanje moe uveriti i
mua i enu u potrebu izmene tradicionalnih stavova i verovanja u mnogim oblastima i omoguava enama da se obrazuju i zaposle.
Dalje, ene sa manjim brojem dece i manjim brojem male dece su pod manjim fiziolokim i psiholokim stresom u odnosu na ene sa
velikom porodicom koje ive u skromnim materijalnim uslovima. Zatim, ostvarivanje uspenog kontakta sa savetovalitem za
planiranje porodice obino podrazumeva sticanje poverenja u medicinu kao nauku, zdravstene radnike i savet kao bitnu preventivnu
meru.
Na niskonatalitetnom podruju zdravstveni ciljevi programa za planiranje porodice su sasvim razliiti. Osnova za njihovo
sprovoenje je, pre svega, veliki broj namernih prekida trudnoe poto abortus nosi potencijalne posledice u vie oblasti koje se tiu i
individue i drutva. U demografskoj sferi, abortus direktno utie na smanjene fertiliteta i reproduktivnog potencijala stanovnitva
(irenje steriliteta, porast spontanih abortusa, prevremenih poroaja i niske teine novoroenadi), a direktno i indirektno deluje
preko mortaliteta enskog stanovnitva. Glavne medicinske komplikacije i sekvele abortusa odnose se na reproduktivni sistem ene.
Abortus, takoe, kao stresogeno stanje ima rizik za mentalni poremeaj. U socijalnoj sferi posledice abortusa se tiu odnosa meu
partnerima.
Pored direktnih zdravstvenih efekata, smanjujui broj abortusa pa samim tim i rizike koje ova intervencija sa sobom nosi, programi
planiranja porodica na niskonatalitetnom podruju mogu imati i znaajne indirektne zdravstvene efekte. Upotreba kontracepcije nosi
niz pozitivnih zdravstvenih efekata. Dalje, podie se nivo zdravstene i seksoloke kulture oba partnera, namee se prevencija i zdrav
ivot kao stil ivota i nain razmiljanja i promovie se lina odgovornost za sopstveno zdravlje. Takoe, stavovi iekivanja i
preputanja, fatalizam i pasivnost, to su karakteristike ena koje putem abortusa kontroliu svoju reprodukciju, pretvaraju se u
sklonost ka kontroli, planiranju, preuzimanju aktivne uloge uopte ukljuujui i aktivnu ulogu u oblasti seksualnih odnosa to
doprinosi izgradnji samopotovanja. Dalje i mukarci i ene opredeljujui se za kontracepciju prihvataju sebe kao seksualna bia,
demaskirajui i reavajui seksualne probleme.
Family planning is an essential component of health protection programmes of many countries, as life and health of women and
children depend heavily on the reproduction model adopted. In high fertility areas women give birth to a large number of children.
They do so in short intervals and for a long time during their reproductive period; as a rule, their reproductive period begins at
puberty. Each pregnancy bears a number of inherent risks; however, numerous pregnancies, inter-pregnancy intervals shorter than
two years, birthgiving before 20 or after 35 years of age expose a woman to a higher risks in terms of conception and birthgiving.
Namely, uterus rupture and hemorrhage are much more common in women with five or more pregnancies during their reproductive
period. Also, the reneval of nutrition reserves and energy level, as well as sekvel egzacelbration of the previous birthgiving is
aggravated if the interval between two successive births is less than two years. Besides, after the age of 35, the incidence of
miscarriage and chances of birthgiving trauma, on the one hand, and pregnancy in the early phase of the reproduction period, on the
other, lay a physiological strain on the body and are related to the postponement of pre-natal diagnostics. Insisting upon high
reproductive norms implies birthgiving even if a woman's health is affected. Also, looking after many children implies, in most cases,
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that a woman has insufficient food, time and money for herself. As a rule, the aforementioned reproductive model is typical of
undeveloped regions with all inherent risks that life in such enviroment implies.
A child's health, particularly in the early years, is highly dependant on its mother's health during pregnancy, birthgiving and
puerperium. A child of higher birth order is affected, by a higher risk of weaker intra-uterine growth, low weight at birth and birth
injuries. Also, there is a competition among children in large families for parent's care and affection, as well as for the limited
financial resources. As a result of physiologic and phychological immaturity of adolescents, their children may suffer from poor
health and bad pre-natal care, whereas birth trauma and genetic abnormality are much more pronounced with children whose mothers
are over 35 years of age. Affected mother's health, competition among children of similar age for parents' care, premature birth and
low weight at birth, short lactation period, transmision of infectious diseases, caused by a direct contact in families with several
children of similar age, are the reasons for affected health and life of children born at short inter-pregnancy intervals. Finally,
children who were unwanted at the time of conception bear higher risk of physical and psychological morbidity and mortality, as
they are brought up in a phychological and social enviroment which is less favourable than those children who were wanted.
Indirect health effects of the family planning programme seen in high fertility regions are equaly relevant to the morbidity of
mothers and children. Let us mention the most important ones. Acquiring control over such a natural process as birthgiving is, may
lead both husband and his wife to recognize the need for changing traditional views and attitudes in many fields and also encourage
women to get educated and employed. In addition, women with a small number of children or with only few small children are under
a lower psysiologic and psychological strain compared with those having large families and modest financial resources. Moreover, a
successful contact with family planning institutes usually implies confidence in medecine as science as well as in medical staff and
medical advice as important preventive measure.
In low fertility areas, health targets set by the family planning programmes are quite different. Such targets are designed to tackle the
problem of a large number of induced abortions, as abortion has potential consequences which may affect both an individual and
society in various aspects. In the demographic sphere, abortion has a direct influence on the decrease of fertility and reproductive
potential of population (spreading of sterility, increase of spontaneous abortions, premature deliveries and low weight newborn
children). It also, both directly and indirectly, causes mortality of women. The main medical complications and abortion sequels are
related to a woman's reproductive system. An abortion, as a stress factor, is also a risk in terms of mental disorders. In social sphere,
an abortion may also affect a couple's relationship.
In addition to direct health effects (decreasing the number of abortions and, consequently, the number of inherent risks), family
planning programmes in low fertility areas may also produce some significant indirect health effects. The use of contraception has a
series of positive health effects. It increases the level of health and sexual culture of a couple; prevention and healthy life become a
style of living and a way of thinking and personal responsibility for one's own health is promoted. In addition, waiting and surrender,
fatalism and passiveness, all being the characteristics of women resorting to abortion as a means of birth control, now turn into an
inclination to control, plan and take an active part in life in general, including an active role in the sphere of sexual relationship which
further adds to selfrespect. Both men and women who decide to use contraception consider themselves as sexual beings capable of
unmasking and solving sexual problems.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1994
godina XXXII
Petrovi, Mina
SKLAPANJE I RAZVOD BRAKA PREMA KOLSKOJ SPREMI
MARRIAGE AND DIVORCE BY EDUCATIONAL STATUS
65-86
K.r.: nupcijalitet, divorcijalitet, obrazovanje, homogamija, heterogamija
K.w.: nuptiality, divorce rate, education, homogamy, heterogamy
Analiza povezanosti kolske spreme lica koja sklapaju ili razvode brak bazirana je na podacima demografske statistike iz 1971, 1981.
i 1991. godine za podruje Centralne Srbije.
U radu je potvrena polazna pretpostavka brane homogamije po obrazovanju, odnosno da brak sklapaju najee lica istog ili
slinog obrazovanja. Tokom posmatranog perioda, usled poveanja opteg obrazovnog nivoa stanovnitva i umanjenja obrazovnih
razlika prema polu, ova tendencija je postajala sve izraenija. Takoe, dolo je i do smanjenja heterogenih brakova u kojima su
obrazovne razlike meu suprunicima vee od jednog stepena. Pored procentualnih pokazatelja korien je i indeks asocijacije ija
vrednost ukazuje na izraenu tendenciju odranja slojne pripadnosti izborom branog partnera istog obrazovanja.
Analiza je pokazala da su u heterogenim branim kombinacijama ene sklonije hipergamiji (stupanju u brak sa mukarcem vieg
obrazovanja), a mukarci hipogamiji (ulasku u brak sa enom nieg obrazovanja), s tim da se brak kao kanal socijalnog uspona u
najveoj meri odnosi na najneobrazovanija lica. Tokom posmatranog perioda tipske razlike po polu se ne gube, ali su ublaene. Tako
je kod najobrazovanijih ena primetan porast hipogamije.
U pogledu povezanosti kolske spreme i razvoda braka dolo se do sledeih rezultata. Najvie stope razvoda imaju lica sa najniim
obrazovanjem. Homogamne brane kombinacije ne pokazuju oekivanu znaajnost za stabilnost braka. Naime, one nisu najstabilnije
kombinacije, mada, uticaj ujednaenog obrazovanja nije u potpunosti doveden u pitanje jer su kombinacije sa veim razlikama u
kolskoj spremi, po pravilu, sa najviim stopama razvoda.
Osnovni zakljuak je da socijalni inioci u daleko veoj meri utiu na izbor branog partnera istog ili slinog obrazovanja dok
individualni inioci imaju presudnu ulogu u ouvanju stabilnosti braka.
The author analyses the impact of educational status on marriage and divorce of the population in Central Serbia based on the
demographic statistics for 1971, 1981 and 1991.
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The paper confirms the initial assumption on marriage homogamy by educational status, ie. that the spouses are most often of equal
or similar educational status. During the period reviewed this tendency became more pronounced as the general level of education of
the population increased. The diferences by sex, however, decreased. Besides, a decline was also recorded in the number of
heterogamous marriages in which the difference in the level of educational of the sposes was larger than one stage. In addition to the
percentage indicators, the index of association also points to a strong tendency of sticking to one's own social status group by
choosing a spouse of educational status.
The analyses has shown that women in heterogamous marriages are inclined to hypergamy (marrying a more educated man than
herself) while men are inclined to hypogamy (marrying a woman of lower education than himself). Marriage, as a means for
climbing up the social ladder is most often used by people of the lowest educational status. Sex-specific differences, though
moderated, are not eliminated during the period observed. Thus, an increase in hypogamy is recorded for woman of the highest
education.
The analyses of the link between the educational status of the spouses and the incidence of the divorce shows that the highest divorce
rate is recorded for the least educated persons. The homogamy of marriage does not secure the expected impact on the stability of
marriage. Namely, such marriages are not the most stable ones though the impact of similarity in educational status is not fully
questioned as marriages with grater disproportions in the educational status of the spouses, as a rule, show the highest divorce rates.
The author concludes that it is the social factors which greatly influence the choice of a spouse of a similar educational status while
the individual factors play a crucial role in preserving the stability of marriage.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1994
godina XXXII
Stevanovi, Radoslav
DOPRINOS MIGRACIJA POPULACIONOM RASTU GRADOVA SRBIJE U PERIODU 1981-1991
CONTRIBUTION OF MIGRATIONS TO URBAN POPULATION GROWTH IN SERBIA IN THE PERIOD 19811991
87-102
K.r.: urbanizacija, migracija, prirodni prirataj, gradska naselja
K.w.: urbanization, migration, natural growth, urban settlements
O doprinosu migracija urbanom rastu uvrstio se tradicionalni zakljuak da su migracije osnovna komponenta takvog rasta. Poto
raspoloiva statistika dokumentacija ne prua mogunost da se pouzdano sagleda koliki je u porastu gradskog stanovnitva bio
uticaj migracija, izvrena je procena za poslednji (1981-1991) meupopisni period, na osnovu odgovarajuih popisa stanovnitva i
podataka vitalne statistike za svako gradsko naselja u Srbiji. Pri tome je korien spisak gradskih naselja iz 1994. godine 194 gradska
naselja).
Vitalno-statistikom metodom dobijen je podatak o pozitivnom migracionom saldu gradskog stanovnitva od 226321 stanovnika. To
znai da je u ukupnom porastu gradskog stanovnitva koji iznosi 581306 stanovnika, uee migracione komponente ispod polovine
(38.9%). U Centralnoj Srbiji uee je 43.9%, na Kosovu i Metohiji 34.2%, dok je u Vojvodini migraciona komponenta u porastu
gradskog stanovnitva uestvovala sa svega 6.7%.
Prema demografskoj veliini gradskih naselja, uee migracione komponente u populacionom rastu, najvee je u naseljima sa preko
100 hiljada stanovnika (42.5%), dok je najmanje kod malih gradskih naselja (naselja do 20 hiljada stanovnika), iznosi 32.2%.
Pojedinano po naseljima, od 194 gradska naselja u Srbiji pozitivan migracioni saldo zabeleen je u 118 naselja (u 81 naselju
Centralne Srbije, u 22 naselja na Kosovu i Metohiji i u Vojvodini u 15 naselja). Meutim, svega u 41 gradskom naselju migraciona
koponenta je dominantna (uee 50% i vie) u porastu i to: u 33 gradska naselja Centralne Srbije, 4 gradska naselja na Kosovu i
Metohiji i u 4 gradska naselja u Vojvodini.
Prema istraivanjima moemo zakljuiti da je porast gradskog stanovnitva Srbije u periodu 1981-1991. vie je posledica prirodnog
nego mehanikog kretanja stanovnitva.
A traditional view on the contribution of migration to urban development is that migration is a basic component of such growth. As
the available statistics do not enable us to determine the actual influence of migration on urban population growth, an analysis was
made of the relative censuses and vital statistic data for each urban conglomeration in Serbia pertaining to the last inter-censal period
(1981-1991). The 1994 list of urban conglomeration from 1994 was applied (totalling 194 urban agglomerations).
By way of the vital statistic method, it is found out that the migration balance of urban population is positive and equals 226321. It
actually means that out of the total urban population growth of 581306 inhabitants, the share of migration component is less than a
half (38.9%). In Central Serbia, that share amounts to 43.9%, in Kosovo and Metohia 34.2%, whereas in Vojvodina the migration
component accounts for only 6.7% of the total urban population growth.
A breakdown by the demographic size of urban agglomerations shows that, the largest share of migration component in population
growth is recorded in urban agglomerations with over 100000 inhabitants (42.5%), whereas the least share of 32.2% is recorded for
small urban agglomerations (up to 20000 inhabitants).
Analysis of individual urban settlements in Serbia shows that out of the total of 194 urban agglomerations, a positive migration rate is
registered in 118 of them (81 in Central Serbia, 22 in Kosovo and Metohia and 15 in Vojvodina). However, only in 41 urban
agglomerations, the migration component is prevails; it is also on the increase in 33 urban agglomerations in Central Serbia, 4 in
Kosovo and Metohia and 4 in Vojvodina.
From the above research we may conclude that the urban population growth in Serbia, in the period 1981-1991, is rather the result of
natural than of the migratory movement of its population.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
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godina XXXII
Radovanovi, Svetlana, Vladimir Stankovi
DEPOPULACIONA KRETANJA NA PROSTORIMA SRBIJE PREMA TIPU NASELJA, 1981-1991.
DEPOPULATION IN SERBIA BY TYPE OF SETTLEMENT IN THE PERIOD 1981-1991
103-120
K.r.: depopulacija, rast stanovnitva, naselja
K.w.: depopulation, population growth, settlements
U Republici Srbiji ve due vreme postoji ekstremno razliit razvoj stanovnitva; demografska eksplozija na Kosovu i Metohiji i
demografska implozija na podruju Centralne Srbije i Vojvodine. Posledice takvog razvoja ogledaju se u u veoma brzom tempu
suavanja polja pozituvnog prirodnog prirataja u Centralnoj Srbiji i Vojvodini i inteziviranju depopulacije u kosovsko-metohijskim
naseljima koja su nastanjena srpskim ivljem. Zahvaljujui obomnosti prirodnog prirataja, koja rezultira iz visoke plodnosti i niske
smrtnosti demografski mlade kosovsko-metohijske populacije u 1992. godini nije bili na Kosovu i Metohiji ni jedne optine sa
negativnim prirodnim priratajem, a samo 8% od ukupnog broja naselja imalo je nulti ili negativan prirodni prirataj.U istoj godini
takvih naselja u Centralnoj Srbiji bilo je 71%, a u Vojvodini ak 78%.
Population in the Republic of Serbia has for quite some time been recording significant differences in its development patterns:
demographic explosion in Kosovo and Metohia and demographic implosion in Central Serbia and in Vojvodina. The concequences
of such developments are reflected in a very dynamic downward tendency of a positive natural growth in Central Serbia and
Vojvodina, as well as in an intensified depopulation in Kosovo and Metohia conglomerations inhabited by the Serbs. Due to strong
natural growth resulting from high fertility and low mortality of the demographically young population of Kosovo and Metohia, there
was no community in that area with a negative natural growth in 1992; besides, only 8% of all conglomerations recorded a zero or
negative natural growth. In the same year, such conglomerations accounted for 71 and 78% in Central Serbia and Vojvodina,
respectively.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1994
godina XXXII
Penev, Goran
DEMOGRAFSKA SITUACIJA U POGRANINIM NASELJIMA SRBIJE, 1981-1991.
DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN BORDER AREA SETTLEMENTS OF SERBIA, 1981-1991
121-138
K.r.: pogranino podruje, naselja, depopulacija, starenje, nacionalnost
K.w.: border area, settlements, depopulation, aging, ethnic nationality
U radu su analizirana dinamika i osnovne strukture stanovnitva 180 pograninih naselja Srbije prema Albaniji, Bugarskoj,
Maarskoj i Rumuniji.
U periodu 1981-1991. stanovnitvo pograninih naselja je smanjeno sa 377 hiljada na 364 hiljade. Smanjenje je bilo prisutno u 150
od 180 naselja. Porast stanovnitva je zabeleen jedino u grupi pograninih naselja prema Alabniji (u 23 od ukupno 26 naselja). U
radu se konstatuje da pogranina naselja Srbije predstavljaju zonu emigracije - migracioni saldo je negativan u 90% naselja, a najvei
je u naseljima prema Albaniji i Bugarskoj.
Autor zakljuuje da se u pogledu prirodnog kretanja razlikuju dve grupe pograninih naselja: 1) naselja prema Albaniji sa visokim
natalitetom i niskim mortalitetom i 2) naselja na granicama sa Bugarskom, Maarskom i Rumunijom sa negativnim prirodnim
priratajem.
Razlike u prirodnom kretanju stanovnitva po grupama pograninih podruja uslovile su i neujednaenu starosnu strukturu.
Stanovnitvo pograninih naselja prema Albaniji je vrlo mlado (52% je mlae od 20 godina), dok je najstarije stanovnitvo naselja
koja se nalaze na granici sa Bugarskom (svega 17% je mlae od 20 godina, preko 35% su lica stara 60 i vie godina).
Autor na kraju rada ukazuje i na vrlo heterogenu nacionalnu strukturu stanovnitva pograninih naselja Srbije. Najbrojniji u Srbi,
Maari, Jugosloveni i Albanci, ali nijedna nacionalnost nema apsolutnu veinu u ukupnom stanovnitvu pograninih naselja. Analiza
po naseljima ukazuje na bitno drugaiju sliku nacionalnog sastava pograninih podruja Srbije. U 171 naselju od ukupno 180
pograninih naselja, jedna od nacionalnosti predstavlja preko polovine stanovnitva (Srbi su to u 97 naselja, Bugari u 29, a Albanci u
19 naselja), a u 115 naselja neka od nacionalnosti predstavlja preko 90% stanovnitva.
This paper analyses population dynamics in 180 settlements located in border areas of Serbia with Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and
Romania.
Population in border areas declined from 377 to 364 thousands from 1981 to 1991. The decline was registered in 150 out 180
settlements. The increase in population was recorded only for settlements bordering with Albania (in 23 out of 26 such settlements).
The author argues that the border area settlements of Serbia constitute the emigration zone - migration balance is negative in 90
percent of settlements and most poignantly so in settlements bordering with Albania and Bulgaria.
The author differentiates between two types of border area settlements with regard to natural movement: 1) high fertility versus low
mortality settlements bordering with Albania, and 2) settlements located in the border areas with Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania
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displaying negative rates of natural increase.

Differences displayed in natural movements of population by groups of border areas have also caused an imbalance in age structure.
Population in areas bordering with Albania is very young (52% is below 20 years of age, while the population in areas bordering with
Bulagria is the oldest (only 17% is younger then 20 and 35% of population is 60 and over).
Finally, the author points to a very heterogenous national composition of the population in border areas of Serbia. The most
numerous are Serbs, ethnic Hungarians, Yugoslavs and ethnic Albanians but no single nationality accounts for the absolute majority
of population in border areas of Serbia. A single nationality accountes for over half of the population in 171 out of the total of 180
border settlements (Serbs in 97 settlements, ethnic Bulgarians in 29, ethnic Albanians in 19) while a single nationality accounts for
over 90% of the population in 115 settlements.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1994
godina XXXII
Vojkovi, Gordana, Mirjana Devedi
RAZVOJ STANOVNITVA JUNOAFRIKE REPUBLIKE U PERIODU 1950-1990.
POPULATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA FROM 1950 TO 1990
139-152
K.r.: stanovnitvo, etnike grupe, rast stanovnitva, prirodno kretanje, starosna struktura, urbanizacija
Keywords: population, ethnic groups, population growth, natural movement, age structure, urbanization
Specifinosti u demografskom razvoju Junoafrike Republike potvruju svu kontroverznost njenog istorijskog i drutvenoekonomskog razvitka. Na teritoriji najurbanizovanije zemlje Afrike ive razliiti narodi i rase, koji imaju i sopstvene, gotovo
dijametralno suprotne modele demografskog razvoja. Najbrojnija je populacija crnaca, iji je porast najintenzivniji, a pod najveim
uticajem prirodnog obnavljanja. Grupu obojenih karakterie umereniji porast, dok azijati i posebno belci belee manje stope brojnog
porasta i manje stope nataliteta (mada jo uvek iznad proseka razvijenih zemalja sveta). Mortalitet stanovnitva je u opadanju, ali
potvruje razliitost prirodnog kretanja analiziranih grupa belaca, crnaca, azijata i obojenih, i odreuje racionalnost njihovog
reproduktivnog ponaanja. Sa tog aspekta, najracionalniju reprodukciju u poslednjih 50 godina ima belo i azijatsko stanovnitvo.
Svaka od ovih grupacija nalazi se u razliitim fazama demografske tranzicije, crnako stanovnitvo u ranoj fazi, belci na kraju
tranzicije. Stanovnitvo JAR odlikuje progresivan tip starosne strukture sa izuzetno velikim ueem mladog stanovnitva. To utie
na poveanje fertilnog i radno-sposobnog kontingenta, i ukazuje na budue demografske probleme i potrebu kontrolisanja
populacionog rasta. Ukoliko se nastavi dosadanji trend porasta, stanovnitvo e se do 2025. godine udvostruiti.
The specific character of demographic development in South Africa reflects all the controversies of the country's historical, social
and economic development. The territory of the most urbanized country in Africa is populated by different nations and different
races, all featured by their unique and almost totaly different models of demographic development.
The most numerous population are the Blacks; its growth is most intensive and influenced primarily by natural reproduction patterns.
The increase in the Coloured population is more moderate, while the Asians, and particularly the Whites, recorded a lower rate of
increase and the lower birth rate (although still above the average recorded for the world's most developed countries). Mortality of
the population is on the decline, but confirms the difference in natural movements of the analyzed population groups - the Whites,
the Blacks, the Asians and the Coloured - and determines the rationality of their reproduction behaviour. From that point of view, the
Whites and the Asians have shown the most rational reproduction pattern during the last 50 years. All of the South African
population groups are in different demographic transition phases; the Blacks are in the early phase, whereas the Whites are nearing
the end of the transition. The South African population is characterized by a progresive age structure with a marked predominance of
young. The resulting increase of fertile and working-age population points to future demographic problems and the need to contain
the population growth. If the current upward trend continues, the size of the South African population will double by 2025.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1994
godina XXXII
DEMOGRAFSKI RAST MILIONSKIH GRADOVA U SVETU U PERIODU 1950-2000.
DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH OF LARGE CITIES OF THE WORLD IN THE PERIOD 1950-2000
153-168
K.r.: gradovi, gradsko stanovnitvo, megalopolis, urbanizacija, porast stanovnitva
K.w.: urban agglomerations, urban population, megalopolis, urbanization, population growth
Milionski gradovi u svetu ne predstavljaju samo najvee demografske i funkcionalne koncentracije ve su i najznaajniji faktor
urbanizacije, regionalnog i ukupnog razvoja. U razvijenim regionima sveta ovi centri deluju kao nukleusi veoma velikih i sloenih
urbanih sistema kao to su metropoliteni, urbani regioni i megalopolisi, a u manje razvijem kao jedini pokretai urbanizacije, koji
esto, zbog svoje predimenzioniranosti i prebrzog rasta, postaju limitirajui faktor.
Mrea ovih centara, u drugoj polovini 20. stolea, veoma brzo se iri tako da demografska ekspanzija milionskih gradova poprima
globalne razmene. Prema podacima za 1950. godinu u svetu je bilo ukupno 73 grada s milion i vie stanovnika, a u 1990. godini 276,
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dok bi prema prognozama UN, u 2000. godini njihov broj bio povean na 308. Poetkom analiziranog perioda (1950. godine)
koncentrisali su 6.9% ukupnog i 23.7% urbanog svetskog stanovnitva, a krajem ovog stolea (2000. godine) u njima bi ivelo 16.0%
ukupnog i 31.2% gradskog stanovnitva. U periodu 1950-2000. godina broj stanovnika u milionskim urbanim aglomeracijama u
svetu porastao bi sa 173.7 na 999.1 miliona.
Izuzetno brzo bi se poveavao i broj "mega-gradova", odnosno centara s vie od 10 miliona stanovnika, tako da e ih 2000. godine u
svetu biti ukupno 21, i to najvie u Aziji i Latinskoj Americi, dok je 1950. godine samo Njujork bio u toj kategoriji svetskih urbanih
sredita. Ovi gradovi 2000. godine koncentrisali bi 164,2 miliona stanovnika.
Bez obzira na prognozirane tendencije stagnacije udela u ukupnom i urbanom stanovnitvu sveta, koje bi se ispoljile u poslednjoj
deceniji 20. stolea, milionske aglomeracije i dalje bi predstavljale glavne pokretae urbanizacije i prostorno-demografskih promena
globalnih razmera.
Large cities are not only the largest demographic and functional agglomerations, but also the most important factor of urbanization,
as well as of the regional and overall development. In the developed areas of the world, those centres function as nuclei of very large
and complex urban systems, such as metropolises, urban areas and megapolises; in underdeveloped areas, they are the only
generators of urbanization which, due to being oversized and too fast growing, often act as a constraint.
Vogorous expansion of these centers in the second half of the 20th century resulted in their large scale of demographic expansion.
According to the figures for 1950, there were 73 cities in the world with over one million inhabitants, while in 1990 they numbered
276. According to the UN forecasts, in the 2000, their number will be 308. At the beginning of the period under review (1950) they
concentrated 6.9% of the total and 23.7% of urban world population, whereas at the end of this century they will concentrate 16% of
the total and 31.2% of urban population. In the period 1950-2000, the number of citizens in the over one milion urban agglomerations
will increase from 173.7 to 999.1 million.
The number of megacities, namely the centres with over 10 million inhabitants, will increase exceptionally fast, so that in the year
2000 there will be 21 of them, mainly in Asia and in Latin America. It is worth mentioning that in 1950 only New York belonged to
that category of world urban centres. In 2000, those cities will concentrate 164.2 million inhabitants.
In spite of the anticipated stagnation in their share in both the total and the urban population of the world, which will be pronounced
in the last decade of the 20th century, over one million agglomerations will continue to be the major generators of urbanization and
demographic changes on a large scale.
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1994
godina XXXII
Breznik, Duan
JANEZ MALAI "DEMOGRAFIJA. TEORIJA, ANALIZA, METODE IN MODELI"
169-171
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1994
godina XXXII
Mijatovi, Boko
GORDANA MATKOVI "DEMOGRAFSKI INIOCI I PONUDA RADNE SNAGE"
171-173
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1994
godina XXXII
Blagojevi, Marina
MINA PETROVI "SVAKODNEVNI IVOT U GRADU I RODITELJSTVO"
173-175
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1994
godina XXXII
Breznik, Duan
"PRILOG DEMOGRAFSKIM I EKONOMSKIM NAUKAMA. ZBORNIK RADOVA POSVEEN IVOTU I RADU
AKADEMIKA MILOA MACURE"
175-178
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1994
godina XXXII
Breznik, Duan
"GERONTOLOGIJA, 2/1993"
178-182
asopis Stanovnitvo
statistiki prilog
broj 3-4/1994
godina XXXII
Gaea, Ljubica
IVOROENI, UMRLI I PRIRODNI PRIRATAJ STANOVNITVA SFRJ, REPUBLIKA I POKRAJINA,
PO NACIONALNOSTI, 1970-1990.
183-212
***************************************************************************
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1995
godina XXXIII
Penev, Goran
COHORT FERTILITY OF SERB AND ETHNIC ALBANIAN WOMEN IN FR YUGOSLAVIA
KOHORTNI FERTILITET SRPKINJA I ALBANKI U SR JUGOSLAVIJI
5-20
K.w.: cohort fertility, Serb women, ethnic Albanian women, FR Yugoslavia
K.r.: fertilitet, Srpkinje, Albanke, SR Jugoslavija
The author analyses fertility of Serb and ethnic Albanian women in the FR Yugoslavia using censal data obtained from 1953 to 1991.
The levels of fertility of these two most numerous national groups in Serbia differ strogly. Serb women have adopted low
reproductive norms and the fertility of of each cohort of women born since the begenning of the I World War was below the
replacement level. Lowering of the final fertility level of Serb women was constant throughout the period under review. The author
points to a slight turnaroud in fertility manifested as an increase in the number of births by women aged 30 to 44.
Fertility of ethnic Albanian women in the FR Yugoslavia is still very high and, at the same time, the highest in Europe. Censuses
taken from 1953 to 1981 point to only minimal changes in their reproduction model while the final fertility level is over 6.5 children
per a woman. Based on the current (annual) vital statistics, the author points to signs of a significant lowering in fertility of women
below 40 years of age (generations born after 1950).
U radu je analiziran fertilitet Srpkinja i Albanki u SR Jugoslaviji na osnovu rezultata popisa izvrenih izmeu 1953. i 1991. godine.
ensko stanovnitvo srpske i albanske nacionalne pripadnosti, tj. dve najbrojnije nacionalne grupe u Srbiji, se duboko razlikuje po
nivou fertiliteta. Srpkinje su prihvatile niske reproduktivne norme, tako da njihov fertilitet kod svih kohorti roenih posle
otpoinjenja Prvog svetskog rata nije bio dovoljan za zamenu generacija. Sniavanje nivoa zavrnog fertiliteta Srpkinja je konstantan
tokom itavog posmatranog perioda. Autor ukazuje na izvestan preokret u pogledu fertilteta koji se manifestuje povienjem raanja
kod ena starih 30-44 godine.
Fertilitet Albanki u SR Jugoslaviji je jo uvek vrlo visok i najvii u Evropi. Rezultati popisa sprovedenih u periodu 1953-1981.
ukazuju na minimalne promene u modelu reprodukcije Albanki, koji rezultira zavrnim fertilitetom od preko 6.5 deteta po eni. Ipak,
autor na osnovu podataka tekue (godinje) vitalne statistike smatra da postoje nagovetaji o znaajnijem sniavanju fertiliteta kod
ena mlaih od 40 godina (generacije roene posle 1950. godine).
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1995
godina XXXIII
Avramov, Dragana
SOLIDARNOST KAO INILAC POPULACIONE POLITIKE (REZULTATI ISTRAIVANJA STAVOVA
STANOVNITVA O POPULACIONOJ POLITICI I OEKIVANJIMA SPRAM DRAVE U DEVET EVROPSKIH
ZEMALJA)
SOLIDARITY AS A COMPONENT OF A POPULATION POLICY (RESULTS FROM THE POPULATION
POLICY ACCEPTANCE SURVEY UNDERTAKEN IN NINE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES)
21-40
K.r.: populaciona politika, solidarnost, fertilitet
K.r.: populaciona politika, solidarnost, fertilitet
Autor analizira rezultate istraivanja i stavova stanovnitva prema populacionoj politici na osnovu ankete sprovedene poetkom
1990-ih u devet evropskih zemalja i najznaajnijih nalaza multidisciplinarnih istraivanja o odnosu izmeu altruizma i institucionalne
solidarnosti. Autor razmatra odnos izmeu tenje ka linom blagostanju i spremnosti na saradnju u modernoj zajednici kroz odgovor
na tri pitanja: ta graani oekuju od drave, koji stepen odgovornosti pripisuju vladi u domenu socijalne zatite i u kojoj meri su
spremni da uestvuju u finansiranju mera zatite roditelja i dece?
Istraivanje upuuje na zakljuak da ispitanici sagledavaju prednosti institucionalne solidarnosti, da pridaju veliki znaaj merama
koje su usmerene ka uklanjanju drutvenih prepreka sa kojima se suoavaju roditelji i deca i da su spremni da solidarno uestvuju u
finansiranju zatite. Analiza reziltata ankete ukazuje da bi integrisana politika razvoja koja sadri snanu socijalnu komponentu
mogla da doprinese poveanju fertiliteta. Meutim, politika koja eksplicitno postavlja profertilitetne ciljeve ne bi naila na
odobravanje ispitanika. Istraivanje stavova stanovnitva o populacionoj politici potvruje da etike osnove politike usmerene ka
porodici, onako kako ih artikuliu ispitanici, izviru iz vrednosti koju ima valorizacija individualnosti, a ne valorizacija demografskih
ciljeva.
The author analyses results of the Population Policy Acceptance Survey undertaken in nine European countries and relevant results
from multidisciplinary research on altruism and institutional solidarity. She addresses the issue of personal wellbeing and cooperation
in a modern society through three questions: what is the level of expectation towards the state, what is the responsibility of the
Government for the delivery of services and to what extent are citizens willing to share the costs of family friendly policies.
Findings indicate that individuals perceive clear advantages of institutional solidarity, attach great importance to policies which aim
at removing social obstacles which parent and children may encounter and are willing to share costs of their protection. It results that
integrated social policy with a strong welfare component could result in a fertility increase. However, the explicit formulation of profertility goals would not be well received. The Population Policy Acceptance Survey indicates that the ethical basis of family friendly
policy, as perceived by the respondents, derives from values attached to the valorization of individuality and not from the
valorization of demographic goals.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1995
godina XXXIII
Raevi, Mirjana
PRIHVATANJE POPULACIONE POLITIKE NA INDIVIDUALNOM NIVOU: ENE KOJE NAMERNO
PREKIDAJU TRUDNOU
POPULATION POLICY ACCEPTANCE AMONG WOMEN WHO DECIDED TO TERMINATE PREGNANCY
41-54
K.r.: populaciona politika, indukovani abortus, ena, Beograd
K.w.: population policy, induced abortion, woman, Belgrade
Podruje niskog fertiliteta u Srbiji je prolo dug put tranzicije fertiliteta, koji se poslednje dve decenije stabilizovao na nivou oko
20% ispod potrebe za prostu zamenu generacija. Predpostavlja se da e u neposrednoj budunosti doi do laganog pada fertiliteta, pre
svega zbog jaanja strukturalnih prepreka i promena u branim varijablama.
Poslednjih godina poela je da se spontano formira populaciona klima. U javnosti, posredstvom masovnih medija i raznih institucija
ukljuujui i crkvu, sve se vie govori o populacionim problemima i o potrebi njihovog reavanja. irenju klime su, takoe, doprineli
istovremeno postojanje visokonatalitetnog podruja drugojaije etnike strukture i ekonomske tekoe sa kojima se suoavaju
pojedinci i porodice u podizanju dece. Drava, mada se jasno opredelila za intervenciju u oblasti fertiliteta, jo uvek nije usvojila
ciljeve, naela i mere populacione politike. Miljenje i stavovi stanovnitva o populacionim problemima i njegovom reavanju, pak,
nisu istraivani.
Ovaj rad predstavlja prilog istraivanju prihvatanja populacione politike na niskonatalitetnom podruju Srbije. U tom smislu je
sprovedeno anketno istraivanje i to tipa face to face intervjua i sa sadrajem koji predstavlja prilagoenu verziju Population Policy
Acceptance Survey Questionnaire. U nemogunosti da se sprovede reprezentativno istraivanje za celo podruje ono je obuhvatili
201 enu do 40 godina starosti beogradske subpopulacije ena koje su odluile da namerno prekinu trudnou. Prethodno anketno
istraivanje o uzrocima velikog broja abortusa na niskonatalitetnom podruju Srbije pokazalo je da ova subpopulacija moe
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predstavljati ciljnu grupu za populacionu politiku. Naime, namernom prekidu trudnoe pribegavaju u manjoj ili veoj meri sve ene
nezavisno od starosti, branog stanja, obrazovanja, zanimanja i drugih socijalnih, psiholokih i kulturnih karakteristika. Zatim,
polovina ena prekida trudnou a nema dece ili ima jedno dete. Dalje, prosean idealan broj dece je 2.70. Istovremeno je utvreno da
je psiholoko optereenje abortusom i u situaciji kada on neposredno sledi, ak manje od psiholokog optereenja kontracepcijom.
Takoe, pretpostavlja se da donoenju odluke o namernom prekidu trudnoe prethodi preispitivanje ranije usvojene strategije vezane
za decu i raanje i da je njena racionalna komponenta vie otkrivena i time lake merljiva.
Rezultati istraivanja otkrivaju da postoje neke bitne pretpostavke za rehabilitaciju raanja. Pre svega, dobra informisanost o
demografskim problemima i osetljivost na njih, visoko vrednovanje braka i isticanje porodinog ivota i dece kao najvanije ivotne
aspiracije i cilja per se. Takoe, prihvatanje pronatalistike politike i spremnost da se pozitivno reaguje u uslovima koje e ona
stvoriti. Bitno je istai i postojanje gotovo uniformisanosti u razmiljanjima nezavisno od starosti i obrazovanja. Disonantno je,
meutim, dominantno isticanje individualnih potreba, zatvaranje na mikronivou i istovremeno postojanje svesti o problemu ali ne i
svesti o linoj ulozi u njegovom reavanju. Samim tim se otvara pitanje da li e pojedinac na pronatalistike mere odgovoriti
raanjem veeg broja dece?
Vie nalaza ovog istraivanja upuuje i na individualno prepoznavanje strukturnih prepreka kao glavne barijere izmeu individualnih
reproduktivnih namera i ponaanja. Ostaje, pak, da drava, takoe, prepozna vrednost dece, pozitivno reaguje na individualne
zahteve s tim to su realne mogunosti za otklanjanje ekonomskih problema pitanje za sebe.
The low-fertility zone of Serbia completed a long period of transition in fertility which has stabilized at about 20% below the
population replacement level in the course of the last two decades. It is assumed that fertility will decline a little further in near future
primarily as a result of growing structural obstacles and changes in marital variables.
Population climate has formed spontaneously in recent years. Mass media and various other institutions including the Church, have
managed to raise the population-related issues with the public and to press the need for their solving. Such climate has been further
sustained by the proximity of the high fertility zone of different ethnic composition and the acuteness of economic problems with
which individuals and families are faced in raising their children. The state, though explicitly in favor of intervening in the area of
fertility, has not as yet adopted neither the targets nor the principles or the population policy measures. However, no research has
been made to assess attitudes and views of the population regarding the population-related issues and the ways for sorting them out.
This paper represents a contribution to the analysis of the acceptance of population policy in the low-fertility zone of Serbia. The data
analyzed were collected by means of a sample survey of a personal interview type constituting an adjusted version of the Population
Policy Acceptance Survey Questionnaire. As it was impossible to conduct a representative survey for the whole region, the sample
surveyed was made up of 201 women under 40 selected from the Belgrade subpopulation who decided to terminate their pregnancies.
The results of the previous survey questionnaire which aimed to analyze causes for a large number of abortions in the low-fertility
zone of Serbia, had indicated that this subpopulation could be the target group for population policy. Namely, the survey has shown
that more or less all women, regardless of age, marital status, education, occupation or other social, psychological or cultural
characteristics, resort to termination of pregnancy. Moreover, half of those who book a termination are either childless or have one
child only though the survey has shown that the ideal average number of children is 2.70. It also showed that the psychological price
of an imminent abortion is lower than that which the application of contraception methods imposes on a woman. Besides, it is
assumed that before deciding to terminate their pregnancies women tend to give another thought to the previously adopted strategy
regarding children and childbearing. The rational component of their decision is very obvious and thereby easy to measure.
The survey results point to the existence of some important prerequisites for rehabilitation of fertility such as, above all, proper
awareness of the demographic problems and high sensitivity to them, high valuation of the conventional marriage and the acceptance
of family life and children as the most important aspiration in life and an aim per se. Besides, the pronatalist policy is widely
accepted and there is willingness to react positively to the conditions its implementation will have created. It is noteworthy that the
attitude of the women surveyed is not affected by either age or education. What is, however, dissonant is that the women interviewed
place emphasis on their individual needs, close up on a micro level while, at the same time, though they are aware of the problem
they have no consciousness of their own role in sorting it out. Thus, the question arises as to whether implementation of the
pronatalist policy measures would provoke people to have a larger number of children.
Several findings show that the structural obstacles are often seen as the main barrier between an individual's reproductive intentions
and his behavior. As a rule, the economic policy measures are given a priority. What remains, however, is for the state to recognize
the value of children and to react positively to the requests voiced by the individuals. The ability of the state to sort out the economic
problems is, however, an issue in itself.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1995
godina XXXIII
Petrovi, Mina
POLITIKA PREMA FERTILITETU: ISKUSTVO MAARSKE
POLICY TOWARDS FERTILITY: HUNGARIAN EXPERIENCE
55-70
K.r.: populaciona politika, fertilitet, Maarska
K.w.: population policy, fertility, Hungary
Politika prema fertilitetu kao odgovor savremenih drava na problem nedovoljnog raanja posmatrana u evropskim okvirima, bez
obzira na razlike u ekonomskim, drutveno-politikim i vrednosnim sistemima, kao i institucionalnoj osnovi populacione politike,
pokazuje znaajan stepen uniformnosti u pogledu postavljenih ciljeva i primenjenih mera.
Iskustvo Maarske, svakako, obeleeno je specifinim istorijskim, demografskim i socijalnim kontekstom. Kratak period
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demografske tranzicije sa brzim rastom stanovnitva veoma rano je uslovio interes za problem niskog raanja. Poetkom 1960-ih
godina Maarska je zabeleila nivo fertiliteta ispod obnavljanja generacija, koji je tada bio najnii u evropskim i svetskim
razmerama. Kasniji delimian oporavak stope ili zaustavljanje njenog pada na alarmanto niske nivoe pripisuje se upravo pozitivnim
efektima politike prema fertilitetu.
Organizovan politiki odgovor na problem niskog odnosno nedovoljnog raanja mogue je pratiti za period nakon Drugog svetskog
rata, koga obeleava socijalistiki koncept razvoja drutva i planske privrede. Autoritarni karakter socijalistikog drutva umanjio je
nedoumice o legitimnosti dravne intervencije u sferu reproduktivnog odluivanja, to je rezultiralo znaajnim stepenom
eksplicitnosti pronatalitetnog pristupa, pa i primenom restriktivnih mera. U radu je dat detaljan prikaz mera koje predstavljaju
okosnicu politike prema fertilitetu: finansijska davanja, poreske olakice, radni status roditelja i odsutvovanja sa posla, zbrinjavanje
dece i planiranje porodice.
Analiza efekata primenjenih mera na nivo fertiliteta ukazuje na znaajne fluktuacije stope ukupnog fertiliteta u periodima uvoenja
pojedinih mera odnosno na tzv. vremenski efekat. Analiza kohortnog fertiliteta, meutim, pokazuje da se efekat mera ne moe svesti
samo na vreme realizacije raanja. Naime, zaustavljanje pada zavrenog fertiliteta primetno je od druge polovine 1980-ih, od kada se
fertilitet ena starih 45-49 godina stabilizuje se na nivou 1.85-1.90. Fertilitet generacija starih 40-44 godina, koji se uslovno moe
smatrati zavrenim zbog retkih raanja u starijim godinama, takoe pokazuje tendenciju smanjenja do poetka 1980-ih, potom
stabilizaciju a krajem 1980-ih i lagani porast. Tako su kohorte ove starosti poetkom 1990-ih imale 10% vii fertilitet nego iste
kohorte poetkom 1980-ih godina. Kako je znaajan deo ili itav reproduktivni period tih generacija bio je pod uticajem
stimulativnih mera ova injenica se nedvosmisleno povezuje sa postignutim nivoom fertiliteta.
Ekonomski i socijalni problemi zapoete drutvene tranzicije nesporno umanjuju realne vrednosti finansijskih davanja i
stimulativnost svih mera, na ta, ukazuje pad stope ukupnog fertiliteta poetkom 1990-ih i izostajanje vremenskih efekata na mere
primenjene u ovom periodu. Meutim, i pored smanjene efektivnosti mera analitiari ukazuju da bi ukidanje univerzalnog prava na
njihovo korienje imalo dodatan negativan efekat na fertilitet. Naime, dugotrajnost populacione politike u Maarskoj ini je, sa
stanovita individualne percepcije, podrazumevajuom drutvenom tekovinom, ije bi ukidanje imalo psiholoki efekat pojaanja
socijalne nesigurnosti.
Pitanje uspenosti mera politike prema fertilitetu analitiari ocenjuju i sa stanovita postavljenog cilja, dostizanja nivoa fertiliteta
potrebnog za obnavljanje generacija. Pokrenuta su pitanja da li se ovaj cilj moe smatrati validnim u socio-ekonomskim uslovima
koji ga ne omoguavaju. S jedne strane, postoji uverenje da, bez obzira na konkretne uslove realizacije, ozbiljnost demografske
situacije i znaaj fertiliteta namee postavljanje ovog cilja. S druge strane, realnim se smatra cilj kojim se tei ostvarenju planiranog
broja dece koji je, mada nii no to je potrebno za obnavljanje generacija, ipak vii od realizovanog. Prema procenama, tako bi se
obezbedio porast feriliteta od 8% do 10%. Dakle, vii stepen realnosti ovog cilja temelji se na, anketnim istraivanjima, utvrenim
stavovima individua kao pokazatelja realne osnove ponaanja na koje se moe uticati.
Pored toga, bogato istraivako iskustvo maarskih demografa pokazalo je da su se pod uticajem razliitih mera i pozitivnih
iekivanja menjali i stavovi o planiranom broju dece tokom braka u pravcu porasta, to bi moda dugoronim realnijim ciljnim
pristupom moglo dovesti do porasta porodica sa troje dece, kako u planovima tako i u stvarnosti. To, meutim, otvara pitanje da li bi
pojedinac na postojee pronatalitetne mere, i u idelanoj formi njihove operacionalizacije, odgovorio raanjem veeg broja dece, s
obzirom na kompleksnu deterministiku osnovu reproduktivnog ponaanja u savremenom drutvu i neegzistencijalnu osnovu
vrednosti deteta koju je mogue ostvariti i sa jednim ili dvoje dece?
The attitude of policy makers towards fertility, as a response of modern states to the problem of insufficient child bearing at the level
of Europe, shows a considerable degree of uniformity of objectives and the measures applied regardless of the differences in
economic, socio-political and value systems.
The experience of Hungary is certainly marked by the specific historical, demographic and social context. A short period of
demographic transition with a fast growth in population had initiated a concern for the problem of low fertility rate. In early 1960s,
the level of fertility in Hungary was below the replacement level which, at that time, was the lowest in both Europe and worldwide. A
partial moderation of the decline or its discontinuation at alarmingly low levels was a results of the implementation of the official
policy measures .
The effects of an organized effort aimed to alleviate the problem of low, i.e., insufficient level of fertility, can be traced back for the
period after the Second World War which is characterized by the socialist concept of social development and planned economy. The
authoritarian character of the socialist society eased doubts regarding legitimacy of state intervention in the sphere of decision
making on child bearing, which had resulted in the highly explicit policy approach towards the increase in fertility even by applying
restrictive measures. The article gives a detailed survey of measures which represented the backbone of the policy towards fertility:
financial assistance, tax cuts, paid leave, child care and family planning.
The analysis of the impact of measures applied shows notable fluctuations in total fertility rate, ie., their time effect. The analysis of
cohort fertility, however, shows that the positive effects of the measures applied can not be related to the timing of actual birth only.
Namely, discontinuation of the decline in completed fertility can be observed from the second half of the 1980s onward when fertility
of women aged 45-49 stabilized at 1.85-1.90. Generation fertility of women aged 40-44, which can be regarded as completed as
births are rare at older age, also shows a downward tendency from early 1980s onward which was followed by stabilization and a
slight increase in late 1980s. As a result, in early 1990s, women in this age cohort had a 10% higher fertility than the corresponding
cohorts of women in early 1980s. As a notable portion or the whole reproductive period of these generations was influenced by
measures aimed to encourage child bearing, their impact cannot be disregarded.
It is doubtless that the economic and social problems of social transition decreased the real value of financial assistance and
diminished the stimulative effect of the measures applied as is shown by the decline in fertility in early 1990s and lack of time effect
on measures implemented in this period. However, despite diminished effects of the measures applied, the analysts point out that the
abolishment of the right of general population to the population policy benefits, would have an additional negative impact on the
level of fertility. Namely, since implementation of the population policy in Hungary dates far back and is taken for granted by the
population, its abolishment would lead to a rise in the feeling of social insecurity.
When judging accomplishments of the policy towards fertility, the analysts also try to assess if the objectives set have been achieved,
ie., whether the level of fertility is sufficient to ensure generation replacement. It is certainly debatable if this objective can be
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regarded as valid in a social and economic environment which prevents its attainment. On the one hand, there is a view that,
regardless of the actual terms and conditions for the achievement of this objective, seriousness of the demographic problem and
significance of fertility make it compulsory. On the other hand, attainment of the objective regarding the planned number of live
births is thought to be more realistic though such number is insufficient to enable generation replacement but is, at the same time,
higher that the number of actual live births. It is estimated that by the achievement of this objective, the increase in fertility of 8-10%
would be secured. That this second objective is more realistic is shown by the results of the survey questionnaires, i.e., the views
expressed by individuals which indicate the reasons for their behavior and possible means to bring about changes in their attitude.
Besides, the experience of Hungarian demographers has shown that under the influence of various measures and positive
expectations the attitude of individuals towards the planned number of children changed in the course of marriage which, if more
realistic long-term objectives were set, could result in the increase in the number of families with three children. This, however,
raises the question if the response of individuals to the existing pro-natalist measures even if ideally applied, would consist in bearing
more children in view of the complex deterministic basis for reproductive behavior in modern society and the non existential value of
child which can also be secured by having one or two children.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1995
godina XXXIII
Matkovi, Gordana
SRPSKO STANOVNITVO U SFR JUGOSLAVIJI
SERB POPULATION IN FORMER SFR YUGOSLAVIA
71-80
K.r.: Srbi, stanovnitvo, etnike grupe, SFR Jugoslavija
K.w.: Serbs, population, ethnic groups, SFR Yugoslavia
U radu je analizirano kretanje srpskog stanovnitva u SFR Jugoslaviji u periodu od 1948. do 1991. godine i to na podruju u celini i u
pojedinim republikama i pokrajinama. S obzirom na znaaj subjektivne komponente za demografske promene jedne etnike grupe,
ukazano je na faktore izvan demografske sfere koji su uslovljavali porast odnosno smanjenje broja Srba i njihovog uea u ukupnom
broju stanovnika na pojedinim podrujima. Dovedena je u vezu i koncentracija srpskog stanovnitva na pojedinim podrujima sa
promenama u njihovom broju u pojedinim meupopisnim periodima, kao i kretanja drugih etnikih grupa koje su mogle predstavljati
alternativu u pogledu izjanjavanja o nacionalnoj pripadnosti. Rad je deo ireg projekta koji treba da odgovori i na druga pitanja iz
ovog domena.
This article analyzis demographic development population of Serb ethnic affiliation in former Yugoslavia. The analysis refers to the
1948-1991 period and pertains to the country as a whole with the data for republics and provinces shown separately. Bearing in mind
the importance of the subjective component for demographic changes of a particular ethnic group, the nondemographic factors which
generated the increase or the decrease in Serb population have been pointed out, as well as their share in total population of a specific
region. Also, the concentration of Serb population in the specific regions is linked with the changes in their size during particular
intercensal periods. A co-relation is also established between development of Serb population and that of other ethnic groups which
might represent an alternative choice of ethnic affiliation by an individual. The article forms part of a broader study which should
also examine other issues from this domain.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1995
godina XXXIII
Raduki, Nada
ETNIKI SASTAV STANOVNITVA OPTINA KOSOVA I METOHIJE I VOJVODINE, 1981-1991
ETHNIC COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION OF KOSOVO AND METOHIA AND VOJVODINA BY
COMMUNE 1981-1991
81-102
K.r.: nacionalni sastav, Srbi, Albanci, Maari, Vojvodina, Kosovo i Metohija
K.w.: ethnic composition, Serbs, ethnic Albanians, ethnic Hungarians, Kosovo and Metohia, Vojvodina
U radu je dat pregled etnikog sastava stanovnitva Republike Srbije i njenih pokrajina prema popisu iz 1991. godine uz pokuaj
ocene promena koje su se desile u strukturi stanovnitva po nacionalnosti. Najvea panja posveena je ispitivanju nacionalnog
sastava stanovnitva Kosova i Metohije i Vojvodine po optinama. Vremenski okvir analize ini razdoblje od 1981. do 1991. godine.
Osnovna karakteristika kretanja stanovnitva na Kosovu i Metohiji u posmatranom periodu su: rast stanovnitva u gotovo svim
optinama, izuzetno brz rast stanovnitva albanske nacionalnosti i smanjenje udela srpskog stanovnitva u svim optinama. Ovakvo
kretanje stanovnitva imalo je za posledicu znaajno poveanje uea Albanaca a smanjenje uea Srba u ukupnom stanovnitvu
Pokrajine i u svim optinama pojedinano. Analiza nacionalnog sastava po optinama Kosova i Metohije, je pokazala da su Albanci
dominantna etnika grupa u 25 od ukupno 31 optine i da je osnovni trend u odnosu na 1981. godinu apsolutni i relativni porast
pripadnika albanske nacionalnosti u svim (izuzev dve) optinama. Pripadnici srpske nacionalnosti su imali apsolutnu veinu u 5
optina (Zvean, Zubin Potok, Leposavi, Novo Brdo i trpce) ali se njihovo uee u tim optinama smanjilo (u proseku za 2%-
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15%) u poreenju sa 1981. godinom. U jednoj optini (Gora) veinsko stanovnitvo ine pripadnici Muslimanske nacionalnosti u obe
popisne godine.
Analiza nacionalnog stanovnitva Vojvodine u ukupno 45 optina je pokazala tendenciju porasta udela pripadnika srpske
nacionalnosti i manji porast udela Roma, Jugoslovena I Crnogoraca a smanjenje udela Maara i nacionalnosti sa manjim brojem
pripadnika (Rumuni, Slovaci, Hrvati). Pripadnici srpske nacionalnosti su bili u 1981. veinsko stanovnitvo u 35 optina (u 28
apsolutno i 7 relativno) a deset godina kasnije se promenio odnos optina sa apsolutnom i relativnom veinom (32 optine su sa
apsolutnom i 3 sa relativnom veinom). Druga po brojnosti etnika grupa Maari, imaju apsolutnu veinu u 7 i relativnu veinu u
jednoj optini i u poreenju sa 1981. broj optina se nije promenio ali se udeo Maara u ukupnom stanovnitvu tih optina smanjio.
Od ostalih nacionalnosti znaajan je udeo Slovaka (imaju etniku prevagu u dve optine) a manje etnike skupine ine i Romi,
Hrvati, Rumuni i drugi.
Analiza promena koje su se desile u nacionalnom sastavu stanovnitva optina Kosova i Metohije i Vojvodine u periodu 1981-1991,
kao rezultat prirodnih komponenti kretanja stanovnitva i migracija, omoguila je uvid u populacionu dinamiku najznaajnijih
nacionalnosti.
The paper gives a survey of ethnic composition of the population of the Republic of Serbia and its provinces based on the 1991
census and attempts to evaluate the changes in the population composition by ethnic affiliation. Major attention is given to the
investigation of ethnic composition of the population of Kosovo and Metohia and Vojvodina by commune. The time frame of the
analysis is the period from 1981 to 1991.
The main features of movements in the population of Kosovo and Metohia during the period observed are the following: growth in
population in almost all communes, exceptionally fast growth in population of ethnic Albanian affiliation and the decline in the share
of Serb population in almost all communes. Such development in population resulted in a significant increase in the share of ethnic
Albanians and a decline in the share of Serbs in total population of the Province and in all individual communes shown separately.
The analysis of ethnic composition by commune of Kosovo and Metohia has shown that ethnic Albanians represent the dominant
ethnic group in 25 out of the total of 31 commune and that the basic trend relative to the year 1981 is an absolute and relative
increase in ethnic Albanian population in all (except in two) communes. The Serb ethnic group had absolute majority in five
communes (Zvean, Zubin Potok, Leposavi, Novo Brdo and trpce) but their share in those communes declined (by 2-15% on the
average) relative to 1981. In one commune (Gora), Muslim population was in majority in both censal years.
Analysis of ethnic composition of the population of Vojvodina in all of the 45 communes has shown an upward tendency in the share
of Serb ethnic population and a smaller increase in the share of Roma (Gypsy) population, Yugoslavs and Montenegrins and a
decline in the share of ethnic Hungarians and smaller ethnic groups (ethnic Romanians, Slovacs, Croats). In 1981, Serbs were
majority population in 35 communes (with absolute majority in 28 and relative majority in 7 communes) while a decade later, they
had an absolute majority in 32 communes and relative majority in 3 communes. The second largest ethnic group, ethnic Hungarians,
had an absolute majority in 7 and relative majority in one commune in comparison to 1981. The number of communes did not change
but the share of ethnic Hungarians in total population of these communes declined. As for other ethnic groups, the share of Slovacs
was significant (they had majority in two communes) while Roma, Croats, ethnic Romanians, etc., represented smaller ethnic groups.
The analysis of changes regarding ethnic composition of the population in the communes of Kosovo and Metohia and Vojvodina
during the period from 1981 to 1991, as the result of natural components of movement in population and migrations, have enabled an
insight into the population dynamics of major ethnic groups.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1995
godina XXXIII
Stojanovi, Branislav, Radoslav Stevanovi
MODEL DEMOGEOGRAFSKOG RAZVOJA: NA PRIMERU PROSTORNOG PLANA SRBIJE
MODEL OF DEMOGEOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT: PHYSICAL PLAN OF SERBIA
103-118
K.r.: demogeografski modeli, projekcije stanovnitva, prostorni plan, Srbija
K.w.: demogeographic models, population projections, population, physical plan, Serbia
Za potrebe realizacije jednog od najvanijih segmenata Prostornog plana Srbije, koji se odnosi na projekcije i razmetaj stanovnitva
u planskom periodu (do 2011. godine), na osnovu prethodnih iskustava, njihove teorijske razrade, razvijenog istraivakog
instrumentarija, aktuelne ekspanzije tehnolokih mogunosti, a posebno sve izraenijih potreba, koje nemaju samo formalni
inovacioni karakter ve i krajnje pragmatski, konstruisan je, odnosno postavljen i primenjen, model demogeografskog razvoja ovog
prostora. Ovaj model predstavlja odreenu "simbiozu" izmeu standardnih (tipinih) demografskih projekcija i nekih modela
prostornog razvoja izrazito geografskog karaktera. Zasnovan je na identifikaciji demografskih i prostornih potencijala, kao i
definisanim ciljevima, postavkama i koncepciji budue regionalne organizacije Srbije. Praktino ima "dvostepeni" karakter, i to tako
da kao bazu ("prvi stepen") koristi prognozu demografskih tokova, i neke pretpostavljene promene u procesima populacionog razvoja
(dinamika, strukturne promene, prostorne karakteristike), a na osnovu dosadanjih tendencija (prva varijanta). Demogeografsku
rezultantu planiranih promena u prostoru predstavlja druga varijanta ("drugi stepen") modela.
Za svaku od varijanti postavljene su posebne hipoteze, s tim to je za prvu, koja je rezultat primene analitikog (kohortkomponentnog) metoda data samo jedna, osnovna, grupa hipoteza (o fertilitetu, mortalitetu i migracijama), a za drugu, uz ove,
delimino modifikovane procenjenim primarnim efektima demografske politike (samo u sluaju da je postavljena,
instrumetalizovana i njene mere primenjene najkasnije do kraja ove decenije), definisana je i druga grupa hipoteza, koje imaju
izraen prostorno planski karakter: predviene osovine (pojasevi - zone) prema stepenu razvoja, budui tokovi urbanizacije, planiran
razmetaj aktivnosti, promene u regionalnoj organizaciji, i drugo.
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Modelom su date projekcije demogeografskog razvoja po svim osnovnim elementima, kao to su promene u populacionoj veliini do
nivoa mikrocelina (optine i gradovi sa vie od 10 hiljada stanovnika), zatim budue promene u strukturi stanovnitva prema starosti,
i prognozirane dimenzije osnovnih funkcionalnih kontingenata.
To implement one of the major segments of the Physical Plan of Serbia relating to the projection and distribution of the population in
the plan period (until 2011), a model of demogeographic development of these regions was formulated and applied based on earlier
experiences, their theoretical elaboration, current technological expansion, and especially in view of the needs expressed which are
not only formally innovative but also fully pragmatic. This model represents a "symbiosis" of the standard (typical) demographic
projections and some models of spatial development of the strictly demographic character. It is based on the identification of
demographic and spatial potential of the territory as well as on the well defined objectives, assumptions and the concept of future
regional organization of Serbia. Practically, it is a "two-layer" structure, its base ("the first layer") being a prognosis of demographic
flows and certain assumed changes in the processes of population development (dynamics, structural changes, spatial characteristics)
based on the tendencies observed (variant I). The "second layer" of the model is the demo-geographical resultant of the planned
spatial changes.
Separate hypotheses are formulated for each of the two layers of this model. In case of the first, which is the result of application of
the cohort-component method, only one, basic group of hypotheses is formulated (regarding fertility, mortality and migrations). As
for the second, in addition to these, which were partially modified by the estimated primary effects of demographic policy (only in
case it will have been formulated, instrumentalized and its measures implemented by the end of this decade at the latest), the second
group of hypotheses was also formulated. These hypotheses have expressive features of a physical plan: zones by the degree of
development, future flows of urbanization, plans regarding distribution of activities, changes in regional urbanization, etc.
The model gives projections of demographic development by basic elements, like changes in population sizes down to the level of
micro units (communes and cities with over 10 thousand inhabitants), future changes in population composition by age and the
projected sizes of basic functional quotas.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1995
godina XXXIII
orevi, Dejan
STANOVNITVO U PROSTORNOM PLANIRANJU: TERITORIJALNA ORGANIZACIJA I UEE JAVNOSTI
POPULATION IN PHYSICAL PLANNING: SPATIAL ORGANIZATION AND PUBLIC PARTICIPATION
119-134
K.r.: prostorno planiranje, studije stanovnitva, distribucija stanovnitva, uee javnosti, proces planiranja,
metodologija planiranja
K.w.: physical planning, population studies, population distribution, public participation, planning process, planning
methodology
Fizike karakteristike i stvorene vrednosti mogu se posmatrati kao potencijal odreenog prostora. Da bi bile u potpunosti upotrebljive
za planerske analize, taj potencijal mora biti izraen preko populacije koja e ga koristiti: broja, strukture i prostorne distribucije
stanovnitva. Obim stanovnitva je indikator graninog kapaciteta prirodnog okruenja i predstavlja osnovu za odreivanje potreba
za prostorom od strane razliitih vidova korienja zemljita, uz dodavanje vremenskog elementa plana. Istraivanja struktura
stanovnitva obuhvataju vane analize starosne strukture, veliine domainstva ili strukture prihoda stanovnitva. Studija o
strukturama stanovnitva pomae pri definisanju buduih stambenih potreba. Te studije su potrebne radi dimenzionisanja prostornih
potreba za rekreacione zone, kole i druge javne servise, i to za populaciju u celini ili za odreene grupe. Istraivanja prostorne
distribucije stanovnitva daju odgovor na pitanje gde e svi ti objekti, servisi ili drugi vidovi korienja zemljita biti locirani na
planiranoj teritoriji. Studije stanovnitva ne obezbeuju samo bazu za dimenzionisanje ukupnih prostornih potreba razliitih vidova
korienja zemljita u vremenskom horizontu plana, ve pokazuju na koji nain, kada i gde iste treba smestiti u prostoru.
S druge strane, uee javnosti u procesu prostornog planiranja nosi oznake legitimiteta, a predstavlja pravo svih graana da
uestvuju u procesu politikog odluivanja. Teorijski, ono zahteva javnu raspravu o ciljevima i alternativnim pravcima razvoja, a
praktino varira od pojave glasanja za politiare na izborima do tzv. potpune graanske kontrole. Pri tome se razlikuje pasivna
participacija, kada je javnost svesna procesa planiranja i kada kroz instituciju javnog mnenja utie na planerske odluke, te aktivna
participacija - akcija tzv. uticajnih grupa koje pritiscima nastoje da iz planskih reenja izvuku odreenu korist. Participacija
stanovnitva je znaajna u cilju poveanja lokalnih autonomija, posebno u oblastima u kojima akcija drave ima neposredan uticaj na
stanovnitvo.
Sutina pitanja koje se odnosi na uee stanovnitva u procesu planiranja je priroda interakcije koja se uspostavlja izmeu planera i
javnosti, koja za planera efektivno predstavlja klijenta. Pri tome su mogua tri hipotetika modela interakcije: u prvom je planer
vien kao "voa", a dominantni pravac protoka ideja i informacija je od planera ka klijentu, sa malim ili nikakvim protokom u
suprotnom smeru. U alternativnoj formulaciji planer se moe pojaviti u ulozi "sledbenika": javnost izraava svoje potrebe a planer ih
usvaja kroz odgovarajua planska reenja. U treem modelu, protok ideja i informacija je kontinuiran u oba pravca tokom svih faza
izrade plana: planerski tim daje objanjenja planskih reenja, a javnost planerima predoava svoje interese i potrebe.
Physical characteristics and artifacts can be observed as a potential of a territory: but to be entirely useful in planning analyses, they
mast be expressed in terms of the population it such potential can be expected to sustain - the size of the population, its composition
and characteristics, and spatial distribution. Population size gives an indication of the overall dimension of the physical environment
and supplies a basic yardstick for estimating spatial requirements for various categories of land use. When the element of time is
introduced and future trends in population size estimated, these trends become the basis for estimating future dimensions and future
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spatial requirements. Investigations of population composition extend these analyses to such qualitative considerations as age groups,
household sizes and income composition of the population. These studies of population composition are used in estimating future
residential space requirements. They help determine the amount of space needed for recreation areas, schools, and other community
facilities required by all segments of the population. Finally, investigations of population distribution provide clues as to how these
various land uses and facilities should be located in the planning area. Therefore, population studies not only provide the means for
scaling total space needs for selected land use categories at different periods of time in the future, but also give an indication as to
how these total space needs should be allocated to different parts of the planning area at any particular time.
On the other hand, public participation implies legal entitlement and represents a right of all citizens to be involved in the political
decision-making process. In theory, this requires public discussion of goals and alternative courses of action but, in practice,
participation varies from voting for politicians at elections in a representative democracy to full citizen control. A distinction is made
between passive participation - a general public awareness of issues which, by its very existence, influences decision-makers; and
active participation - the actions of pressure groups attempting to influence policy outcomes.
At the very heart of public participation in planning lies the issue of nature of interaction that is established between planners and the
public, who are effectively the planners client. Three main hypothetical models of planner-client relations can be identified. In the
first one, the planner is seen as a leader and the dominant flow of ideas and information is from the professional planner to members
of the public, with little or no flow in the opposite direction. In an alternative formulation, the planner may be seen as a "follower". In
this reverse model, the public expresses its needs and the planner responds to these statements. In the third and final formulation, in
many ways an idealistic compromise, there is continual planner - client interaction, with flows of ideas and information going in both
directions throughout the planning sequence. Here, planners explain the reasons for their proposed actions, whilst the public conveys
its needs and aspirations to the planners.
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/1995
godina XXXIII
Srdi-akovi, Ljubica
MEUNARODNA KONFERENCIJA O STANOVNITVU I RAZVOJU, KAIRO, 5-13. SEPTEMBAR 1994.
135-150
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/1995
godina XXXIII
Raevi, Mirjana
EVROPSKA POPULACIONA KONFERENCIJA "EVOLUCIJA ILI REVOLUCIJA U EVROPSKOJ POPULACIJI",
MILANO, 4-8. SEPTEMBAR 1995.
150-158
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1995
godina XXXIII
Radovanovi, Milovan
ALEKSANDAR VELJKOVI, RADMILO JOVANOVI, BRANKA TOI "GRADOVI SRBIJE: CENTRI
RAZVOJA U MREI NASELJA"
159-162
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1995
godina XXXIII
Petrovi, Mina
MARIJA BOGDANOVI "METODOLOKE STUDIJE"
162-166
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1995
godina XXXIII
Cari, Neboja
SLAVENKO TERZI ET AL."ETNIKI SASTAV STANOVNITVA SRBIJE I CRNE GORE I SRBI U SFR
JUGOSLAVIJI"
166-168
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1995
godina XXXIII
Predojevi, Jelena
ABDEL RAHIM OMRAN "FAMILY PLANNING IN THE LEGACY OF ISLAM"
168-173
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1995
godina XXXIII
Duan, Breznik
THRSE HIBERT ET LOUIS ROUSSEL (eds.) "LA NUPTIALIT: VOLUTION RCENTE EN FRANCE ET
DANS LES PAYS DVELOPPS"
173-178
asopis Stanovnitvo
statistiki prilog
broj 1-4/1995
godina XXXIII
Penev, Goran, Radoslav Stevanovi
PROSENA STAROST STANOVNITVA PO TIPU NASELJA: SR JUGOSLAVIJA, 1981. I 1991. GODINE
179-186
***************************************************************************
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1996
godina XXXIV
Raevi, Mirjana
PROGRAMI ZA PLANIRANJE PORODICE U MUSLIMANSKIM ZEMLJAMA: USPENI PRIMERI
FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMMES IN MUSLIM COUNTRIES: SUCCESSFUL CASES
9-22
k.r.: planiranje porodice, program za planiranje porodice, Tunis, Indonezija
k.w.: family planning, family planning programmes, Tunisia, Indonesia
Debate o pitanju da li program za planiranje porodice ima demografske i zdravstvene efekte su prolost. Iskustvo steeno u razliitim
sredinama je pokazalo da organizovana akcija u oblasti planiranja porodice smanjuje fertilitet na makro, a zdravlje ene i dece je
vana dobrobit na mikro nivou.
Berelson je napravio listu od devetnaest opcija koje vlada moe da preuzme u okviru politike iji je cilj smanjenje fertiliteta. Mada
pojedinani programi za planiranje porodice obino ukljuuju vie elemenata, tvorci programa daju razliiti znaaj pojedinim
komponentama. Pored izbora najvanijih strategijskih elemenata, programi variraju i u manjoj ili veoj meri u tipu i kvalitetu niza
elemenata kao to su, izmeu ostalih, servisi, izbor metoda i sredstava za kontracepciju, savetodavni rad, javno informisanje,
voenje, materijalna baza, fleksibilnost, zakonodavstvo, kontrola, evaluacija.
Sumirana iskustva programa za planiranje porodice su dragocena osnova od koje se mora polaziti u svim sledeim slinim
pokuajima. Posebnu vrednost ima, meutim, i konkretizacija nabrojanih inioca. Otuda svaki uspean program za planiranje
porodice je izvor niza specifinih iskustava.
U tom smislu, predstavljena su dva programa za planiranje porodice. Program za planiranje porodice Tunisa i Indonezije. Oni su
izabrani izmeu desetak programa za planiranje porodice koji su ostvarili znaajne demografske efekte. To su, meutim, jedine dve
muslimanske zemlje koje su sprovele uspene programe za planiranje porodice. Muslimanska kultura privlai posebnu panju jer je
karakterie otpor ili manja otvorenost za promene uopte, ukljuujui i postojanje elemenata koji spreavaju pad fertiliteta ak i kada
su zadovoljeni mnogi razvojni uslovi. Poseban razlog je korienje iskustva drugih zemalja neophodnih za formulisanje mera
populacione politike za koju se pretpostavlja da e biti uvedena na Kosovu i Metohiji u neposrednoj budunosti.
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Debates as to whether a family planning programme does or does not have demographic and health-related effects are the thing of
the past. Experiences gained in different circumstances have shown that organized action in the area of family planning induces a
decrease in fertility on a macro level, and has an advantageous impact on the health of women and children, on a micro level.
Berelson has made up a list of nineteen options open to a government aiming to decrease fertility. Though individual family planning
programmes usually include more elements, programme-makers ascribe different significance to the same components. In addition to
opting for different major strategic elements, these programmes vary more or less in relation to the type and quality of a series of
elements like: services, methods and means of contraception, counseling work, public information, management, material base,
flexibility, legislation, control, evaluation.
A summary of experiences gained in implementing different family planning programmes represents a precious base from which to
start in all similar future endeavors. A special significance lies, however, in defining the above elements in concrete terms.
Consequently, every successful family planning programme represents a source of a series of specific experiences.
To this aim, two family planning programmes are presented: one for Tunisia and the other for Indonesia. They have been chosen
from among about ten individual family planning programmes which have produced notable demographic effects. These, however,
represent the only two Muslim countries that had successfully implemented the family planning programmes. Muslim culture attracts
special attention because it is characterized by a resistance to or lower acceptance of changes in general, including elements
preventing the decline in fertility even when various development considerations have been met. A special reason for this
investigation lies in our effort to use the experiences of other countries in formulation of the population policy measures which are
expected to be implemented in Kosovo and Metohija in the foreseeable future.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1996
godina XXXIV
Bobi, Mirjana
PROUAVANJE PORODICE I DOMAINSTVA NA OSNOVU POPISA OBLASTI BRANKOVIA IZ 1455.
ANALYSIS OF FAMILY AND HOUSEHOLD BASED ON THE 1455 CENSUS FOR BRANKOVIA REGION
23-50
K.r.: kua, porodica, domainstvo, agnatske zajednice, zadruga, inokosna porodica
K.w.: house, family, household, agnatic communities, zadruga, single family
Iz vremena neposredno nakon turskih osvajanja, (ezdesetak godina posle Kosovskog boja) sauvana su tri popisa stanovnitva koja
se odnose na stare srpske zemlje. Jedan od njih je i defter (popis) za Vukovu Oblast ili Oblast Brankovia iz 1455. godine. Sasvim
uslovno govorei, ova je Oblast obuhvatala vei deo dananjeg Kosova, ali i delove Metohije, krajeve oko Sjenice, Roaja i dananje
Toplice. Re je o poreskom dokumentu, kojim su popisani svi izvori prihoda od stanovnitva i lokalne privrede, razdeljeni u feudalne
posede (krupnijih i sitnijih spahija). Imajui u vidu specifinu prirodu ovog dokumenta, u radu smo pokuali da prouimo fenomen
"kue", kako se spominje u originalnom izvoru, to bi odgovaralo pojmu domae grupe ili porodice.
Popisom Oblasti Brankovia iz 1455. godine obuhvaeni su poreski obveznici preteno poljoprivrednog, ratarskog, zanimanja, uz
neto zanatlija i duhovnih ljudi (svetenstva). Unutar ove grupacije stanovnika, popisani su odrasli, mukarci, bilo kao stareine
"kua" (domaini), bilo kao neoenjeni lanovi (iz sastava kua domaina), i izuzetno ene u sluaju da su udovice (u odsustvu
mukog stareine), i to uvek na kraju popisa sela. Popis ne prua podatke o ostareloj kao i o sasvim mladoj populaciji oba pola. Otud
je za ocenu veliine porodice ili "kue" neophodna pomo demografskih modela. U literaturi preovladava miljenje da srpska
srednjevekovna porodica nije bila velika (proseno 5 lica), imajui u vidu gubitke populacije izazvane ratnim razaranjima, visoku
smrtnost ena u fertilnom periodu, deji mortalitet i kratak proseni ivotni vek. Meutim, uprkos maloj prosenoj veliini, porodice
su se proirivale po tzv. horizontalnoj (pobonoj) i vertikalnoj (na vie ili na nie) srodnikoj osi, formirajui raznorodne, velike
porodice "zadruge". Analiza pojedinanih spiskova lica po selima, uz pomo instrukcija istorijskih demografa (P. Laslett), jasno
pokazuje grupisanje mukaraca po osnovu srodstva u vee porodine skupine (preteno bratskog tipa).
U radu je uinjen pokuaj da se definie pojam kue. Izgleda da je tu re o poreskoj kategoriji, kojom se oznaava samo onaj deo
porodice koji podlee fiskalnim drutvenim obavezama. Kue, onako kako ih belei ovaj dokumenat su agnatske zajednice odraslih
(radno i brano sposobnih) mukaraca. Izuzetak su jedino obudovele supruge, popisane u sluajevima odsustva stareina. To znai da
se pojam kue u ovom defteru ne poklapa sa stvarnim pojmom porodice i/ili domainstva, kakva je postojala u srednjem veku.
Argument u prilog ovom razumevanju kue kao poreske kategorije moemo pronai i u koncepciji popisa. Sistem beleenja
stanovnika, po kome su lanovi jedne porodice beleeni jedni uz druge, stari i ugledni lanovi seoske zajednice, kao i popovi, obino
na poetku, a udovice obavezno na kraju, govori o izriitoj nameri popisivaa da zabelei potinjeno, oporezovano stanovnitvo.
From the time immediately after Turkish expansion (some sixty years after the Battle of Kosovo) three population census books
relating to Serbian lands have been preserved. One of them is the defter (census) for Brankovia region dated 1455. Conditionally
speaking, this region comprised a major portion of today's Kosovo but also parts of Metohija, regions around Sjenica, Roaje and
modern Toplice. The defter is a tax book in which all sources of income from households and local economy are broken down by
individual feudal estate (belonging to major and minor feudal landlords). In view of the specific nature of this document, this paper
aims to analyze the exact nature of the term house as used in the original source that corresponds to the idea of domestic group or
family.
The 1455 census for Brankovia region represents a list of all tax payers who were primarily engaged in agricultural land production,
crafts and provision of religious services (members of the clergy). Within this group, a census is taken of all adult males either as
heads of houses (masters) or unmarried male members (in the house of a master). Women are registered only if widowed (and in the
absence of the male master) and their names were placed at the bottom of the list for the village. The list does not include the aged
and the very young population of either sex. To assess the size of the family group or the "house" we must apply demographic
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models. It is widely accepted in literature that Serbian family of the Middle Ages was not large (and consisted, on the average, of five
members) due to large population losses caused by war destructions, high mortality of women in childbirth, high infant mortality and
a short life expectancy. However, though being small on the average, family groups tended to expand on the so called horizontal
(sidewise) and vertical (of higher and lower order) axis of kinship to form different large family groups extended family groups. The
analysis of lists of persons in individual villages, by applying instructions of historic demographers (P. Laslett), clearly shows
grouping of males on the basis of blood relatedness into larger groups (mostly fraternities).
This paper tries to define the term "house". It seems to represent a tax category denoting only that part of the family which is subject
to fiscal social obligations. Houses, as used in this document, are agnatic communities of adult males of working and marriageable
age. The only exception are widows who are listed only if the male master was absent. This means that the meaning of the "house" as
used in this defter, does not coincide with the idea of a family and/or household as was known in the Middle Ages. The argument in
favour of interpreting "the house" as tax category can also be derived from the very concept of the census. The system of first listing
the names of male members of one and the same family one after the other, the old and honored members of the village community
and the priests, and putting the names of the widows at the back of the list, clearly speaks of the intention of enumerating that
portion of the subservient population that is subject to the tax payment obligation.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1996
godina XXXIV
Stankovi, Vladimir
SOCIOPROFESIONALNO SAMOOBNAVLJANJE AKTIVNOG POLJOPRIVREDNOG STANOVNITVA
CENTRALNE
SRBIJE I VOJVODINE PREMA PODACIMA POPISA STANOVNITVA 1991
SOCIO-PROFESSIONAL SELF-REPRODUCTION OF THE ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE AGRICULTURAL
POPULATION OF CENTRAL SERBIA AND VOJVODINA BASED ON THE 1991 CENSUS DATA
51-72
K.r.: meugeneracijska socioprofesionalna mobilnost, samoobnavljanje aktivnog poljoprivrednog stanovnitva, popis
stanovnitva, klasifikacija zanimanja, centralna Srbija, Vojvodina
K.w.: inter-generation socio-professional mobility, self-reproduction of economically active agricultural population,
population census, job classification, Central Serbia, Vojvodina
Sticajem okolnosti, prvo i poslednje prikupljanje podataka o meugeneracijskoj drutvenoj pokretljivosti na prostoru bive
Jugoslavije vezuju se za popisne akcije. Protekle tri decenije, izmeu probnog popisa 1960. i redovnog popisa stanovnitva 1991.
godine, predstavljaju dosta irok interval za nastanak krupnih drutveno-strukturnih promena u tadanjoj Jugoslaviji. Meu
najbitnijim promenama, koje su se desile u tom prostorno-vremenskom okviru, posebno je upeatljiva pojava rapidnog slabljenja
intenziteta meugeneracijskog socioprofesionalnog samoobnavljanja aktivnog poljoprivrednog stanovnitva, koje je u tesnoj
korelaciji sa ubrzanim procesima industrijalizacije i urbanizacije zemlje.
U odnosu na stanje iz 1960. godine, kada su u bivoj SFR Jugoslaviji blizu dve treine lica poljoprivrednikog porekla nastavljale
profesionalnu tradiciju svojih oeva, u 1991. godini od ukupnog broja aktivnih lica koja po roenju pripadaju poljoprivrednikom
sloju, na podruju centralne Srbije, samo polovina se zadrava u matinoj socioprofesionalnoj grupi a na podruju Vojvodine oko
jedne treine.
Socioprofesionalno samoobnavljanje aktivnog poljoprivrednog stanovnitva manifestuje se 1991. kao vrlo selektivan socijalni
proces, jer u njemu preteno uestvuju starije i manje obrazovane generacije stanovnika poljoprivrednikog porekla.
Kao i na poetku posmatranog perioda, podaci popisa 1991. pokazuju da je u centralnoj Srbiji i Vojvodini najei pravac socioprofesionalnog kretanja poljoprivrednikog potomstva prema grupi "rudari, industrijski i srodni radnici" (u centralnoj Srbiji 24,9%, a
u Vojvodini 29,5%). Od nemanuelnih profesionalnih grupa, najveu privlanost za potomke poljo-privrednika imaju grupe:
"strunjaci i umetnici" (u centralnoj Srbiji 6,2%; u Vojvodini 7,8%).
Preterani transfer poljoprivrednog stanovnitva u nepoljoprivredne delatnosti, iznad realnih drutveno-ekonomskih potreba zemlje,
prouzrokovao je velike disproporcije u starosno-polnom sastavu poljoprivrednog stanovnitva u celini i, posebno, poljoprivredne
radne snage. Intenzivno starenje i feminizacija poljoprivredne radne snage, s jedne strane, i narastanje "tehnolokih vikova"
nepoljoprivredne radne snage, s druge strane, rezultat su enormnog odliva mlaeg stanovnitva iz seoskih podruja.
It is a coincidence that the first and the last compilation of data on inter-generation social mobility on the territory of the former
Yugoslavia corresponds to the timing of census taking. The last three decades, from the pilot census of 1960 to the regular population
census of 1991, represent a relatively long interval during which a series of major socio-structural changes had occurred in the former
SFRY. Among the most important ones, particularly significant is the beginning of a rapid decline in the intensity of inter-generation
socio-professional self-reproduction of the economically active agricultural population. This is closely correlated with the accelerated
processes of industrialization and urbanization of the country.
In comparison with 1960 when almost two thirds of the economically active agricultural population of the former SFRY continued
the professional tradition of their forefathers, out of the total number of persons of agricultural origin in Central Serbia in 1991, only
half remained in their original socio-professional group. In Vojvodina, about one third of them did the same.
Socio-professional self-reproduction of the the economically active agricultural population was manifested in 1991 as a very
selective social process in which mainly the elderly and the less educated portion of the agricultural population, participated.
The 1991 census data for Central Serbia and Vojvodina show that, as in the beginning of the period under review, the population of
agricultural origin, in terms of socio-professional orientation, most often tends to opt for "mining, industrial and related labour" (24.9
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per cent in Central Serbia and 29.5 per cent in Vojvodina). As for non-manual occupational groups, the most attractive ones are
"professionals and artists" (6.2 per cent in Central Serbia and 7.8 per cent in Vojvodina).
The excessive transfer of agricultural population to non-agricultural activities, above the real socio-economic requirements of the
country, has provoked large disproportion in the age-sex composition of agricultural population in general, and agricultural labour
force, in particular. Intensive ageing and feminization of agricultural labour force, on the one hand, and the increase in "technological
redundancies" of non-agricultural labour force, on the other, came as a result of the enormous outflow of younger population from
rural areas.
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lanak
broj 1-2/1996
godina XXXIV
Predojevi, Jelena
FERTILITET STANOVNITVA GRADA BEOGRADA
FERTILITY IN THE CITY OF BELGRADE
73-88
K.r.: Beograd, veliki grad, imigraciono podruje, nizak fertilitet
K.w.: Belgrade, big city, immigrant area, low fertility
Glavna tema rada je prouavanje nekih aspekata fertiliteta stanovnitva grada Beograda na osnovu raspoloivih podataka iz popisa
stanovnitva i vitalne statistike u periodu posle Drugog svetskog rata, a naroito izmeu popisa 1971. i 1991. godine. Prvo je
razmatrano kretanje broja ivoroene dece i nivoa opte stope nataliteta. Autor istie da je broj ivoroenja bio u stalnom usponu do
1985. godine, a zatim kada poinje naglo da opada. 1992. godine je, po prvi put u posmatranom periodu, zabeleen negativan
prirodni prirataj, ali zahvaljujui pozitivnom migracionom saldu, stanovnitvo Beograda i dalje raste. U radu se razmatra i
distribucija optina prema visini opte stope nataliteta. Moe se zakljuiti da se u poslednjih 15-ak godina vrednosti ove stope
izjednaavaju u beogradskim optinama (i gradskim i prigradskim) na niskom nivou.
Bez obzira to je struktura enskog fertilnog kontingenta povoljna u odnosu na ukupno stanovnitvo grada, stope fertiliteta po starosti
su nie nego na drugim niskonatalitetnim podrujima SR Jugoslavije. 1991. godine u nijednoj optina Beograda nije zabeleena
vrednost stope ukupnog fertiliteta preko 2,0 deteta po eni. to se tie drugih pokazatelja promena u fertilnom modelu, zakljuak je
da dolazi do sve masovnijeg odlaganja raanja, kao i zanemarljivo malog broja raanja treeg i vieg reda.
Kretanje fertiliteta stanovnitva grada Beograda u periodu neposredno pre, kao i posle Drugog svetskog rata, je slino kretanju
fertiliteta stanovnitva u velikim zapadno-evropskim gradovima.
The main topic of this paper is the investigation of various aspects of fertility in the city of Belgrade based on the available data from
population censuses and vital statistics compiled in the period after the Second World War and particularly, between the two census
years, 1971 and 1991. First, an analysis has been made of the movement in the number of live births and the crude birth rate. The
author points out that the number of live births was on a continual increase until 1985 when a period of sharp decline began. In 1992,
for the first time during the period observed, a negative rate of natural increase was recorded but, owing to the positive migratory
balance, population of the city of Belgrade has kept growing. The author also discusses distribution of the communes by the crude
birth rate. It may be concluded that during the last fifteen years these values tend to even out across Belgrade communes (both in the
city and in the suburban areas) at a low level.
Regardless of the fact that the age composition of female population aged 15-49 is favorable relative to the total population of
Belgrade, the age-specific fertility rates are lower compared to other low fertility zones of the FR of Yugoslavia. In 1991, none of the
communes recorded the total fertility rate above 2.0 children per woman. As for other indicators of changes in the reproductive
bihaviour, it may be deduced that the delay of childbearing is gaining more massive proportions while there is a negligible number of
third and higher birth order.
Fertility trends in Belgrade in the period immediately prior and after the Second World War, are similar to fertility trends in major
West European cities.
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-2/1996
godina XXXIV
Pandey, Himanshu
STUDY OF A PROBABILITY MODEL ON RURAL OUT-MIGRATION AT MICRO-LEVEL
(ISTRAIVANJE MODELA VEROVATNOE RURALNIH EMIGRACIJA NA MIKRO NIVOU)
89-95
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broj 1-2/1996
godina XXXIV
Milankovi, Jasna
DOPRINOS VLADIMIRA JAKIA RAZVOJU DEMOGRAFSKE STATISTIKE U SRBIJI
95-108
asopis Stanovnitvo
hronika
broj 1-2/1996
godina XXXIV
Stevanovi, Radoslav
XIII KONGRES LEKARA SRBIJE, VRNJAKA BANJA, 26-30. MAJ 1996.
109-114
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1996
godina XXXIV
urev, Branislav S.
SVETLANA RADOVANOVI (redaktor) "STANOVNITVO I DOMAINSTVA SR JUGOSLAVIJE PREMA
POPISU 1991"
115-119
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1996
godina XXXIV
Stojiljkovi, Dejan
J.I. CLARKE AND L.TABAH (eds.) "POPULATION-ENVIRONMENT-DEVELOPMENT: INTERACTIONS"
119-125
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prikaz
broj 1-2/1996
godina XXXIV
Sekuli, Ljiljana
"REGIONALNI RAZVOJ I DEMOGRAFSKI TOKOVI U SR JUGOSLAVIJI"
125-130
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1996
godina XXXIV
Raduki, Nada
DRAGOSLAV NIKOLI I DUAN DIMITRIJEVI "SAMOUBISTVA U SR JUGOSLAVIJI 1985-1993"
130-134
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1996
godina XXXIV
Spasovski, Milena
R. D. PAVLOVI "STANOVNITVO I NASELJA OPTINE RAKA U FUNKCIJI PRIVREDNOG RAZVOJA"
134-137
167
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asopis Stanovnitvo
statistiki prilog
broj 1-2/1996
godina XXXIV
Pavkov, Slavica
AKTIVNO STANOVNITVO KOJE OBAVLJA ZANIMANJE PREMA ZANIMANJU, KOLSKOJ SPREMI I
ZANIMANJU OCA, PO POLU. CENTRALNA SRBIJA I VOJVODINA, 1991.
139-175
*****************************************************************
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1996
godina XXXIV
Stojanovi, Branisla , Slavica Mihajlovi
OSNOVNI ELEMENTI ZA DEMOGEOGRAFSKU REGIONALIZACIJU
BASIC ELEMENTS FOR DEMOGEOGRAPHIC REGIONALIZATION
99-116
K.r.: demogeografija, regionalizacija, stanovnitvo, prostor
K.w.: demogeography, regionalization, population, space
Problem regionalizacije predstavlja jednu od najznaajnijih teorijsko-metodolokih pitanja demogeografije, koja je jedna od
najekspanzivnijih naunih disciplina geografije, kao kompleksa prostornih nauka. Bri razvoj demogeografije, ali i geografije u
celini, poinje ezdesetih godina 20. veka kada dolazi do krupnih promena, kvalitativnog karaktera, u njihovom razvoju, kako u
teorijsko-metodolokom pogledu, tako i u primeni novih tehnika i instrumenata istraivanja, odnosno brojnim rezultatima sa visokim
stepenom upotrebljivosti u praksi (od upravljanja do planiranja). Ovaj proces rezultira i promenom u poloaju geografije i
demogeografije u naunom i drutvenom sistemu. Ove tendencije posebno dolaze do izraaja u demogeografiji kod koje, usled
specifinog predmeta (objekta) prouavanja u metodolokoj aparaturi dominantan znaaj dobijaju matematiko-statistiki metodi
(ukljuujui i modele), tako da nivo aplikativnosti njenih rezultata konstantno raste, posebno u onom segmentu koji se odnosi na
nauno zasnovano predvianje budueg razvoja. Izdvajanje regionalnih teritorijalnih celina, kao prostorno-demografskih kompleksa,
postaje jedno od krucijalnih naunih pitanja ove discipline, koje je, ne samo u teorijsko-metodolokom pogledu ve i u empirijskom,
nedovoljno razraeno. Uopteno posmatrano sastoji se od nekoliko glavnih problemskih celina: definisanje pristupa (izbor principa
regionalizacije), izbor kriterijuma i parametara, odreivanje naina definisanja granica regionalnih celina (bez obzira na rang),
problem hijerarhije regiona (subordinacije).
Praktino sva obeleja, koja imaju prostornu dimenziju, a mogu se relativno lako kvantifikovati, predstavljaju potencijalne elemente
za formiranje osnova demogeografske regionalizacije, s tim da je neophodno prethodno izvriti strogu selekciju onih obeleja koji
najbolje reprezentuju odreene demografske procese. Glavne karakteristike stanovnitva (obeleja i njihovi modaliteti), koje mogu
predstavljati elemente osnove demogeografske regionalizacije, mogue je sistematizovati u pet glavnih grupa: statistikodemografska obeleja (formalna), osnovne demografske karakteristike, strukturna obeleja, prostorno-demografska obeleja i
istorijsko-demografski razvoj. Kombinacijom nekoliko geodemografskih regionalizacija (izvedenih na osnovu razliitih principa) i
na osnovu razliitih kriterijuma i parametara, mogue je, ali ne mehanicistikim nainom ve upotrebom njihovih glavnih rezultata
kao parametara, dobiti novi kvalitet, odnosno optu geodemografsku regionalizaciju. Ova regionalizacija moe se koristiti (sa
regionalizacijama koje predstavljaju rezultate istraivanja drugih geografskih disciplina) za formiranje osnove opte geografske
regionalizacije, kao objektivnog odraza stvarne izdiferenciranosti posmatranog prostora na posebne teritorijalne komplekse, a u
kojem nije prenaglaen niti jedan element ili segment. Novi pristup i tehnika istraivanja (GIS) kompjuterizacija u kartografiji, ali i
druge istraivake metode, otvaraju nove mogunosti u prouavanju ove problematike, uz prethodnu ozbiljnu teorijsko-metodoloku
razradu.
Among the major theoretic and methodological issues of demogeography are the problems relating to regional distribution and
classification of the population. Demogeography is currently one of the most expanding scientific disciplines of geography (a
complex of spatial sciences). Rapid development of demogeography, and geography in general, began in the 60s when major
qualitative changes were observed both in terms of theory and methodology and in terms of application of the new techniques and
instruments of research (numerous highly practical results, from administration to planning) were obtained. This process led to a
change in the position of geography and demogeography in the scientific and social systems. The tendencies are particularly well
observed in demogeography. Due to the specific nature of the subject investigated, a dominant position in the methodological sense
is taken up by the mathematical and statistical methods (including models). Thus, the level of applicability of the results obtained is
constantly growing, especially as regards the scientifically based estimates of future development. Specification of regional territorial
units as spatial demographic complexes has become one of the crucial scientific issues treated by this discipline. It has not been
sufficiently elaborated in terms of theory and methodology nor in its empirical aspect. The major problems are: selection of the
approach (selection of the principle of regionalization), selection of the criteria and parameters, definition of the boundaries of
regional units (regardless of rank) and problems relating to the definition of regional hierarchy (level of subordination).
Practically all quantifiable characteristics having spatial dimension represent potential elements for formation of the basis for
demographic regionalization. It is, however, necessary to make a strict selection of those characteristics which best represent the
specific demographic processes. The main features of the population (characteristics and their modalities) which may represent the
elements of the base for demographic regionalization may be systematized into five major groups: statistical demographic features
(formal), basic demographic features, structural characteristics, spatial demographic features and the historic demographic
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development. By combining several geodemographic regionalizations (performed pursuant to different principles and based on
different criteria and parameters), it is possible to acquire a new quality, that is general geodemographic regionalization. This
regionalization (along with those obtained by other geographic disciplines) may be used for formation of the base for general
geographic regionalizations as an objective expression of the actual differentiation of the space observed into separate territorial
complexes in which no element or segment is overemphasized. The new approach and research techniques (GIS) use of computers in
cartography and in other research methods, open up new possibilities for studying these issues after a thorough theoretic and
methodological elaboration.
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lanak
broj 3-4/1996
godina XXXIV
Stojiljkovi, Dejan, Tanja Pekmezovi, Mirjana Jarebinski
SMRTNOST OD MALIGNIH TUMORA RESPIRATORNOG TRAKTA U POPULACIJI BEOGRADA, 1980-1993.
MALIGNANT NEOPLASMAS OF RESPIRATORY TRACT IN BELGRADE, 1980-1993
83-97
K.r.: maligni tumor, respiratorni trakt, Beograd
K.w.: malignant neoplasma, respiratory tract, Belgrade
Cilj ovog priloga je da pokae znaaj mortliteta od malignih neoplazmi plua i larinksa kao najeih u grupi malignih neoplazmi
respiratornih sistema. U Beogradu (i Srbiji) umiranje od malignih neoplazmi je na drugom mestu, odmah iza kardiovaskularnijh
bolesti. Stope mortaliteta na 100000 stanovnika standardizovane su metodom direktne standardizacije po starosti, a kao standard
uzeta je populacija sveta bazirana na proceni po Segiju i Dollu.
Maligne neoplazme respiratornog trakta (MNR) u strukturi umrlih od svih malignih tumora uestvuju sa 24,52%. U okviru grupe
MNR najuestaliji su kancer plua 87,9%; laringealni kancer 8,2% i karcinom pleure 2,0%. Ostale lokalizacije uestvuju sa manje od
1,0%. Najuestaliji kancer meu mukarcima je kancer plua, dok je laringealni kancer na 9. mestu. Kod ena, kancer plua je na
drugom mestu, odmah iza raka dojke.
Standardizovane stope mortaliteta (SSM) od raka larinksa za posmatrani etrnaestogodinji period iznose kod mukaraca
5,16/100000 stanovnika, a za ene 0,66/100000, sa trednom opadanja. SSM od raka plua u istom periodu su proseno iznosile
47,75/100000 stanovnika za muku populaciju, a 11,62/100000 za ensku populaciju, sa trendom porasta.
The aim of this study is to appraise importance of lung and laryngeal neoplasmas as the most frequent among the respiratory tract
neoplasmas. Malignant neoplasmas are the second death cause just after the cardiovascular diseases according to the official
population data. Population mortality rates per 100000 inhabitants were standardised by method of direct standardisation. As a
standard, the population of the world was used, according to Segi's and Doll's world inhabitant estimation.
Malignant neoplasmas of respiratory tract (MNR) were represented with 24.5% in the structure of all malignancies. Among MNR
there were 87.9% lung cancers, 8.2% laryngeal cancers and 2,0% pleura cancers. All the rest respiratory localisations were
represented with less than 1.0%. Among men, the most frequent was lung cancer, while laryngeal cancer was on the 9th place.
Among women, lung cancer was on the second place, just after the breast cancer. Standardised mortality rates (SMR) for laryngeal
cancer were 5.2/100000 for men and 0.7/100000 for women with decreasing trend. SMR to lung cancer were 47.7 and 11.6/100000
for men and women, with increasing trend. An average SMR value for both sexes for lung cancer was 27.2 and for larynx was
2.7/100000.
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lanak
broj 3-4/1996
godina XXXIV
Matkovi, Gordana, Borka Vujnovi
WAR AFFECTED PERSONS IN THE FR OF YUGOSLAVIA
LICA UGROENA RATOM U SR JUGOSLAVIJI
7-41
K.w.: refugees, war affected persons, FR of Yugoslavia
K.r.: izbeglice, lica ugroena ratom, SR Jugoslavija
The analysis of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of war affected population relies on two basic data sources: the
census conducted by UNHCR, the Commissionary for Refugees of the Republic of Serbia and the Commissionary for Displaced
Persons of the Republic of Montenegro, and on the survey conducted by the Economics Institute.
According to the census, there are 646066 refugees and other war affected persons living in the FR of Yugoslavia. Out of this
number, 617728 are in Serbia and 28388 are in Montenegro. From the total number of war affected persons, 566275 have an
internationally recognized refugee status, while these persons have a different status under Republican laws. The sex and age
structure of this population are relatively balanced. According to their nationality, over 90% of the war affected persons are Serbian.
Over one half of the war affected persons are accommodated with friends and relatives. The most vulnerable category are persons
accommodated in collective centres. According to the census there are over 60 thousand such persons. The educational structure of
this population is extremely favorable and it is much more favorable than the educational structure of the local population. From the
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total war affected population over 13.2% have a university or college degree. The majority of those who due to war conflict fled to
Yugoslavia are unemployed. Approximately only 66 thousand persons has a permanent or temporary employment. The majority of
refugees and other war affected persons, i.e. over 80% of the total number of economically active persons, are by occupation either
industrial or clerical related workers.
Based on the conducted survey it can be concluded that the majority of the war affected persons have not solved their employment
problem to their satisfaction, while the census results show that a significant portion of the war affected persons have some kind of
job, i.e. close to 40%. It is obvious that in the census they did not declare themselves as employed, since most of them are actually
working in the hidden economy. Over one half of the persons having some kind of job work in the private sector. The majority i.e.
almost one third of the war affected persons work in the trade, catering or tourism, while a relatively small number works in the
manufacturing industry. Before the war, close to one third of the active persons and almost one half of the inactive persons worked in
agriculture, as a main or additional activity. Over one half of the war affected persons do not have jobs corresponding to their
profession. The women, elderly and the less educated are in a more unfavorable position when it comes to employment.
Additionally, based on the survey it can be concluded that the lack of accommodation, as well as the lack of financial means forced
the refugees and other war affected persons to live in households with many members. The extremely difficult financial position of
this population is confirmed by data which show that over one half of these people do not have their own income, while among those
who do have an income, only every fifth stated that this income is sufficient for living expenses. Almost two thirds of the war
affected persons receives humanitarian assistance.
Analiza demografskih i socioekonomskih karakteristika lica koja su zbog rata prebegla u SR Jugoslaviju izvrena je na osnovu popisa
koji su sproveli UNHCR, Komesarijat za izbeglice Srbije i Komesarijat za raseljena lica Crne Gore, kao i na osnovu ankete koju je
sproveo Ekonomski institut.
Prema popisu na podruju SR Jugoslavije nalazi se 646066 izbeglica i drugih lica ugroenih ratom i to 617728 u Srbiji i 28388 u
Crnoj Gori. Od ukupnog broja lica ugroenih ratom 566275 po meunarodnim kriterijumima ima status izbeglica, dok prema
Republikim konvencijama ova lica imaju razliit status. Polna i starosna struktura ove populacije je relativno uravnoteena. Prema
nacionalnoj strukturi preko 90% lica ugroenih ratom su srpske nacionalnosti. Preko polovine lica ugroenih ratom smeteno je kod
prijatelja i roaka. Kao najugroenija mogu se smatrati lica koja su u kolektivnim centrima, a kojih prema popisu ima preko 60
hiljada. Obrazovna struktura ove populacije je povoljna i znatno povoljnija od obrazovne strukture lokalnog stanovnitva. U ukupnoj
populaciji lica ugroenih ratom preko 13,2% ima visoko ili vie obrazovanje. Najvei broj lica koja su zbog rata prebegla u
Jugoslaviju je nezaposleno. Svega priblino 66 hiljada lica ima stalno ili privremeno zaposlenje. Najvei broj izbeglica i drugih lica
ugroenih ratom, preko 80% od ukupnog broja ekonomski aktivnih lica, su po zanimanju radnici i slubenici.
Na osnovu ankete mogue je zakljuiti da, iako najvei broj lica ugroenih ratom nije na zadovoljavajui nain reio pitanje
zaposlenja, u odnosu na rezultate popisa vei udeo lica ugroenih ratom obavlja neku vrstu posla, blizu 40%. Oigledno je da se u
popisu oni nisu deklarisali kao zaposleni, jer je najvei broj zapravo angaovan u sivoj ekonomiji. Preko polovine lica koja obavljaju
neku vrstu posla radi u privatnom sektoru. Najvei udeo lica ugroenih ratom angaovan je u industriji, ugostiteljstvu i turizmu, blizu
jedne treine, dok je relativno mali broj angaovan u industriji. Pre rata blizu treine aktivnih i blizu polovine neaktivnih lica bilo je
angaovano u poljoprivredi, u potpunosti ili u vidu dopunske delatnosti. Vie od polovine lica ugroenih ratom ne radi u struci. U
pogledu zaposlenja u nepovoljnijoj situaciji se nalaze ene, stariji i manje obrazovana lica.
Takoe, na osnovu ankete je mogue zakljuiti da je nedostatak stambenog prostora, ali i materijalnih sredstava primorao izbeglice i
druga lica ugroena ratom da ive u domainstvima sa velikim brojem lanova. Izuzetno teku materijalnu situaciju ove populacije
potvruju i podaci da vie od polovine lica nema sopstvene prihode, a da meu onima koji imaju prihode tek svaki peti smatra da su
ti prihodi dovoljni za ivot. Blizu dve treine lica ugroenih ratom prima humanitarnu pomo.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1996
godina XXXIV
Raevi, Mirjana
PLANIRANJE PORODICE KAO STIL IVOTA
FAMILY PLANNING AS A LIFE STYLE
61-81
K.r.: planiranje porodice, reproduktivna norma, kontracepcija, abortus, razvijene zemlje, zemlje u razvoju
K.w.: family planning, reproductive norm, contraception, induced abortion, developed countries, developing countries
I niske reproduktivne norme i nepovoljne uslove za njihovo ostvarivanje na sadanjem civilizacijskom nivou nije uspelo da izbegne
nijedno razvijeno drutvo. Niz istraivanja su pokazala da se stav o idealnom broju dece stanovnitva razvijenih zemalja kree
izmeu dvoje i troje dece, a stvarno raanje ispod tog nivoa. Fertilitet stanovnitva meu razvijenim zemljama je rezultanta
zajednikih normi i barijera ija je vrstina i jedinstvo bez presedana u ljudskoj istoriji. Neegzistencijalna osnova vrednosti deteta je
bitan faktor niskih reproduktivnih normi. Pogotovo u uslovima diferenciranih ciljeva, izmenjene porodice i u uslovima kada su
"gubici" vezani za decu veliki. Treba podvui da mukarac i ena formiraju stav o idealnom broju dece i ostvaruju ga u uslovima koji
su oslobodili i forsirali individualizam. Pojedinac ne razmilja i/ili ne uvaava drutvene potrebe ukljuujui i potrebe vezane za
bioloku reprodukciju drutva. Dananje drutvo, pak, u uslovima kada je raanje osloboeno moralnog i egzistencijalnog pritiska
postalo stvar naizgled slobodnog izbora pojedinca, nije putem svojih institucija pokualo da neposredno utie na formiranje visine
socijalnih normi o broju dece niti je svojim mehanizmima omoguilo da ravnopravna ivotna opcija bude raanje uopte, a pogotovo
raanje troje, etvoro ili vie dece.
Pored oportunih prepreka raanju, oseaja nedovoljne sigurnosti i u porodici i u iroj zajednici i trokova (cene) vezanih za
usklaivanje roditeljstva i profesionalne aktivnosti, kao i roditeljstva i zadovoljenja razliitih interesovanja, i strukturne prepreke -
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nezaposlenost, nereeno stambeno pitanje, problemi uvanja dece, nezadovoljavajui ekonomski standard i druge pojave iz ovog
kruga - su, kako varijabla niskih reproduktivnih normi, tako i bitna barijera za realizaciju stavova o idealnom broju dece. Znaaj
nabrojanih strukturnih prepreka je danas posebno izraen u zemljama u tranziciji, a njima su pridodati i novi elementi mogue
individualne pasivizacije kao to su, na primer, oseaj nesigurnosti, socijalni maladaptacioni sindrom ili drutvena anomija.
Pad fertiliteta u zemljama u razvoju je, pak, istovremeno individualni odgovor na nisku smrtnost, socio-ekonomski razvoj i
promociju planiranja porodice putem programskih napora, akcija, pokreta ili irenjem vrednosti zapadne civilizacije. Znaaj
programa za planiranje porodice je dvostruk. On deluje, pre svega, direktno. Otklanja prepreke zadovoljavanja manifestnih i
diferenciranih potreba za kontrolom raanja parova ili ena. Program za planiranje porodice, meutim, podstie i podrava latentne,
ambivalentne, neartikulisane, inkoherentne ili porodino disonantne potrebe i utie na formiranje stava o malom broju dece kao
idealu kome treba teiti.
Svaki par, kada je re o realizaciji ograniavanja raanja, moe slediti vie modela ivljenja. Najee, pak, stanovnitvo i razvijenih
i nerazvijenih zemalja preteno koristi efikasnu kontracepciju. No i pored toga, broj abortusa i apsolutno i relativno posmatran
pokazuje da se vei broj ena preteno, a jedan broj iskljuivo, oslanja na ovaj metod kontrole raanja. Indukovani abortus je
najrasprostranjeniji u zemljama biveg Sovjetskog Saveza i zemljama Istone i Centralne Evrope. Rana liberalizacija abortusa, pre
nego to su moderna kontraceptivna sredstva bila razvijena i dostupna, jedan je od zajednikih faktora velikog broja namernih
prekida trudnoe u ovim zemljama. Stope abortusa u zemljama u razvoju sa liberalnim zakonskim reenjima vezanim za namerni
prekid trudnoe su, mada sa varijacijama, takoe, visoke. Objanjenje koje se namee je da je teko ostvariti tranziciju fertiliteta bez
ovog grubog vida ovekove intervencije.
No developed society has managed to escape from low reproductive norms and adverse conditions associated with their achievement
at the current level of civilization development. A series of investigations has shown that the ideal number of children in the
developed countries ranges from two to three while the actual number is below it. Population fertility in the developed world is a
resultant of extremely firm and unified common norms and barriers. The non-existential base of the value of children is a crucial
factor for low reproductive norms, especially in the environment of highly differentiated aims, changed family, and large "losses"
that are associated with children. It should be underlined that a man and a woman formulate their approach to the ideal number of
children and realize it in the environment that has freed and continues to put an emphasis on individualism. An individual does not
think in terms of and/or does not take in account the social needs including those related to the biological reproduction of the
population. Now that child bearing has been liberated from moral and existential pressures and has apparently become a matter of an
individual's free choice, the society is not trying through its institutions to directly affect formation of social norms on the number of
children nor has, through its mechanisms, made child bearing in general an equal life option, not to speak of bearing three, four or
more children.
In addition to opportunist barriers to child bearing like insufficient feeling of security in the family and the community at large and
the costs (price) associated with harmonization of parental and professional activities on the one hand, and between parenthood and
satisfaction of different interests on the other, there are also structural barriers like unemployment, inadequate housing conditions,
problems associated with caring for the children, low standard of living, etc. that represent both a variable of low reproductive norms
and an important barrier to the realization of an individual's attitude regarding the ideal number of children. Significance of the above
structural barriers to child bearing is nowadays particularly prominent in countries in transition. There are also some new elements
related to possible passivization of individuals like, for example, the feeling of insecurity, social maladaptation syndrome or social
anomie.
Decline in fertility in the developing countries represents at the same time an individual's response to low mortality, socio-economic
development and promotion of family planning via implementation of different programs, activities, movements or spreading of the
Western civilization norms. Significance of a family planning program is twofold. Its impact is, primarily, a direct one. It removes
the barriers to the satisfaction of manifest and differentiated needs for birth control among couples or women. The family planning
program, however, encourages and supports latent, ambivalent, unarticulated, incoherent or dissonant family needs and influences
formation of an attitude favoring low number of children as an ideal to strive to.
When it comes to practicing limited child bearing, every couple can choose from among several life models. Most frequently, the
population in both the developing and the developed world resorts to efficient means of contraception. The number of induced
abortions, however, in both absolute and relative terms shows that a substantial number of women primarily or even exclusively
resorts to this particular means of birth control. Induced abortion is most extensively practiced in the former Soviet Union and in the
Eastern and Central European countries. Early liberalization of abortion, prior to the development and easy access to modern means
of contraception, represents one of the common elements to a large number of induced abortions in these countries. The incidence of
abortion in the developing countries with liberal laws on abortion is, more or less, also high. All of the above shows that transition in
fertility can hardly be achieved without this crude form of human intervention.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1996
godina XXXIV
Stamenkovi, Srboljub .
DNEVNE MIGRACIJE STANOVNITVA U GEOGRAFSKIM PROUAVANJIMA NASELJA SRBIJE
DAILY MIGRATIONS OF POPULATION IN GEOGRAPHIC RESEARCH OF SETTLEMENTS IN SERBIA
43-60
K.r.: geografska prouavanja, naselja, dnevne migracije, radna snaga, kolska omladina
K.w.: geographic research, settlements, daily migrations, labor force, school children
Dnevne migracije stanovnitva, posebno kontinuirana pokretljivost radne snage, uenika i studenata, predstavljaju bitno demografsko
i naseobinsko prostorno-funkcionalno obeleje. Njihova razvijenost i strukturna svojstva, to proizilazi iz stepena drutvenoekonomske razvijenosti i prostornog rasporeda radnih kapaciteta - proizvodnih i neproizvodnih, su relevantni indikatori
funkcionisanja naselja u geoprostoru. Pored ostalog, i iz tih razloga nauna znanja o dnevnim migracijama populacije imaju izuzetan
znaaj u teoriji i metodologiji veeg broja posebnih nauka i praksi prostornog, kao i urbanistikog i ruralnog planiranja. Otuda se u
Srbiji (od poetka 50-ih godina naeg veka) vreme veeg i ireg (u vie nauka) naunog interesovanja za fenomen dnevne migracije
vremenski poklapa sa poetkom razvoja i afirmacijom prakse prostornog planiranja. Meutim, i pored toga, moe se bez dvoumljenja
konstatovati da su naselja Srbije sa ovog gledita samo delimino i prostorno fragmentalno nauno prouena. Evidentan je deficit
sistematizovanih i jasno formulisanih znanja o dnevnim migracijama. U tom smislu, a sa stanovnita eventualne budue nauno
organizovane i drutveno verifikovane akcije, bitne su sledee osnovne opaske:
- evidentna je drutvena potreba za vremenski kontinuiranim i sistematskim praenjem dnevnih migracija;
- neophodnost organizovanja prouavanja dnevnih migracija kroz razliite vidove naune kooperacije (interdisplinarna ili
multidisplinarna istraivanja), jer su one po svojoj naunoj sutini raznorodne (i geografske, i demografske, i socioloke, i
ekonomske, i etnoloke, i antropoloke itd.);
- tenja da se fenomen dnevne migracije ispita u svojoj celokupnosti i sezonskoj promenljivosti, u svim vrstama i tipovima naselja,
kao i delovima teritorije Republike Srbije;
- da se ova drutvena pojava posebno sagleda u metropolitanskim uslovima Beograda i drugim velikim urbanim sistemima Srbije Novi Sad, Kragujevac, Ni i Pritina;
- u sklopu stvaranja koncepcije revitalizacije (oivljavanja) seoskih naselja i proizvodnje, poznavanje kontinuirane dnevne prostorne
pokretljivosti ruralne populacije je od izuzetne vanosti za strategiju ruralnog razvoja Srbije;
- u novom politiko-geografskom okruenju Srbije (nekada u sastavu SFRJ, a sada SRJ) sveukupna dnevna prostorna pokretljivost
stanovnitva ima posebnu funkciju prilikom utvrivanja lokacije graninih prelaza i organizovanja malograninog prometa i
- sistematizovan skup relevantnih informacija o dnevnim migracijama stanovnitva najefikasnije se moe formirati radom dravne
statistike slube (posebnom obradom rezultata pojedinih popisa stanovnitva i povremenim praenjem ove pojave).
Verujemo da e sadanju stihijnost i teritorijalnu arenolikost u naunoj prouenosti dnevnih migracija stanovnitva Srbije, u
vremenu koje je pred nama, zameniti planski osmiljena i organizovana akcija, kao i svestraniji nauni pristup.
Daily migrations of population, especially regular mobility of labor force, pupils and students, represent an important demographic
and space-functional feature. Scope and structural characteristics of migrations resulting from the degree of social and economic
development as well as spatial distribution of labor capacities - both productive and non-productive - represent relevant indicators of
the functioning of settlements in geographic environment. For that particular reason, scientific knowledge on daily migrations of the
population is very significant in theory and methodology of a series of individual sciences and in actual urban and rural planning. The
increase in depth and scope (inter-disciplinary approach) of scientific interest in daily migrations coincide with the rise and
affirmation of spatial planning practice in Serbia (from the early 50s onward). However, such analysis of settlements in Serbia has so
far been only partial and fragmentary. Lack of systematized and clearly formulated knowledge on daily migrations is evident. For the
purpose of future scientifically organized and socially verified activities, the following is particularly significant:
- a continuous and systematic monitoring of daily migrations;
- analysis of daily migrations through different forms of scientific cooperation (inter-disciplinary and multi-disciplinary) because
they can be affected by geographic, demographic, sociological, economic and anthropologic reasons;
- analysis of the phenomenon of daily migrations in terms of total movements and adjusted for seasonal variation in all kinds and
types of settlements and across the territory of Serbia;
- analysis of this social phenomenon in a metropolitan environment of Belgrade and other urban systems of Serbia - Novi Sad,
Kragujevac, Ni and Pritina;
- information on regular daily spatial mobility of rural population is particularly significant for formulation of the strategy of rural
development in Serbia within the framework of revitalization of rural settlements and production;
- information on aggregate daily spatial mobility of the population of Serbia in the new political and geographic environment (as
Serbia constituted a part of the former SFRY and now of the FRY) is particularly important for designation of the location of border
crossings and organization of small border trade;
- systematized body of relevant information on daily migrations of the population can most efficiently be obtained by government
statistical agencies (through processing of information gathered in censuses and temporary monitoring of this phenomenon).
We believe that the currently prevailing random approach and differences in depth of scientific knowledge on daily migrations in
Serbia will in future be replaced by planned and organized activities and adoption of a multi-disciplinary approach.
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osvrt/komentar
broj 3-4/1996
godina XXXIV
Penev, Goran
MEUNARODNA KONFERENCIJA "PEDESET GODINA DEMOGRAFSKOG RAZVITKA BALKANA",
SOLUN, 26-29. JUN 1996.
117-126
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/komentar
broj 3-4/1996
godina XXXIV
Predojevi, Jelena
7. MEUNARODNA LETNJA KOLA DEMOGRAFIJE I GEODEMOGRAFIJE, EKA REPUBLIKA, 1-22.
SEPTEMBAR 1996.
127-132
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1996
godina XXXIV
Spasovski, Milena
BILJANA RADIVOJEVI (redaktor) "STANOVNITVO I DOMAINSTVA REPUBLIKE SRBIJE PREMA
POPISU 1991. GODINE"
135-146
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1996
godina XXXIV
Petrovi, Mina
MIRJAM VAN DONGEN, GERARD FRINKING, MENNO JACOBS (eds.), "CHANGING FATHERHOOD - A
MULTIDISCIPLINARY PERSPECTIVE"
146-151
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1996
godina XXXIV
Todorovi, Luka
MIRJANA RAEVI I MINA PETROVI "ISKUSTVA POPULACIONE POLITIKE U SVETU"
151-155
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1996
godina XXXIV
Sredojevi, Olivera
GORDANA MATKOVI (ur.) "HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT YUGOSLAVIA 1996"
156-161
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173
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1997
godina XXXV
Matkovi, Gordana
FUTURE PLANS AND DURABLE SOLUTIONS FOR WAR AFFECTED POPULATION IN FR OF
YUGOSLAVIA
BUDUI PLANOVI I TRAJNA REENJA ZA RATOM UGROENA LICA U SR JUGOSLAVIJI
7-23
K.w.: refugees, war affected persons, plans, programmes
K.r.: izbeglice, lica ugroena ratom, planovi, programi
Judging by the future plans expressed in the Census, 410.3 thousand refugees and other war affected persons intend to permanently
settle in the FR of Yugoslavia, while approximately 54 thousand persons are planning repatriation. The census results show that the
younger, better educated, employed and those with their own apartments, more than others wish to remain in the FR of Yugoslavia.
War-affected persons of other than Serb nationality, the elderly, pensioners, the unemployed and those accommodated in collective
centers, to a greater extent plan to repatriate.
In order to find durable solutions it is important also to analyze the number of war-affected persons and the conditions under which
they would return to their previous habitual residence. According to the survey, conducted by the Economic institute, a mere 4.0% of
the respondents replied that they would return "regardless of everything, while a further 3.9% would return if they were given
guarantees regarding their safety. An important factor for 34.2% of the respondents, in addition to their safety is the existence of
appropriate financial conditions, while 57.9% would not return, under any circumstances.
Although the future plans of the refugees cannot be considered as being definite, finding durable solutions, especially in the sphere of
refugee integration cannot be left to spontaneous processes. Rather this requires the formulation of a programme that must be
development oriented and designed so that conflicts with the local population are avoided. A precisely defined legal and institutional
framework is necessary for integration. Both in this sphere, and especially in the part which will remain humanitarian in character,
international assistance is indispensable.
Popis izbeglica i drugih ratom ugroenih lica i anketa koju je sproveo Ekonomski institut omoguili su, pored ostalog, da se sagledaju
i budui planovi ratom ugroenih lica.
Sudei prema planovima koji su izneti u popisu, 410,3 hiljade izbeglica i drugih ratom ugroenih lica namerava da se trajno nastani u
SR Jugoslaviji, dok svega priblino 54 hiljada lica planira repatrijaciju. Planove o preseljenju u inostranstvo ima neto vie od 48
hiljada lica, dok preko 118 hiljada u vreme popisa nije moglo da se izjasni u pogledu svojih buduih planova. Iako u svakom
segmentu ratom ugroenih lica vie od polovine planira da se trajno naseli u SR Jugoslaviji, njihov udeo je vei meu mlaim licima,
obrazovanijim, onima koji su reili svoje stambeno pitanje i koji su se zaposlili.
Rezultati ankete pokazuju da najvei broj lica ugroenih ratom smatra da se u potpunosti ili delimino prilagodio uslovima ivota u
novoj sredini, da je mobilnost ovih lica niska, kao i da bi reenje stambenog problema i zaposlenja bili najjai motivi za preseljenje.
Anketa takoe omoguava i da se sagleda koliki bi se deo populacije i pod kojim uslovima vratio u mesto boravka pre izbeglitva.
Svega 3,9% anketiranih je na ovo pitanje odgovorilo da bi se vratilo u "svakom sluaju", a jo 3,9% vratilo bi se ukoliko postoje
bezbednosne garancije. Za 34,1% anketiranih znaajan faktor za povratak je da uz garantovanu bezbednost postoje i materijalni
uslovi, dok se 57,8% ne bi vratilo ni pod kojim uslovima.
Iznalaenje trajnih reenja, pogotovu u domenu integracije izbeglica se meutim ne moe prepustiti spontanim procesima, ve
zahteva donoenje programa koji mora biti razvojno orijentisan, formulisan na nain da se izbegnu konflikti sa lokalnim
stanovnitvom, i uz precizno definisanje zakonskih i institucionalnih okvira neophodnih za integraciju. Osnovni sadraj programa
mora se osloniti na pull, a ne na push faktore. Ne smeju se, dakle, izabrati podruja, a zatim administrativnim metodama izbeglice
primorati na seljenje, ve se moraju privui osmiljenim programima. Pri formulisanju programa, naroito u delu koji se odnosi na
zapoljavanje naglasak bi trebalo da bude na razvoju malih i srednjih preduzea, na legalizaciji sive ekonomije u kojoj je angaovan
znaajan deo populacije ratom ugroenih lica i na iznalaenju reenja koja bi respektovala povoljnu kvalifikacionu i obrazovnu
strukturu ove populacije. Pored reenja za populaciju u celini, program treba da bude orijentisan i na specifine segmente ove
populacije, kao to su stari, ene, deca i invalidi.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1997
godina XXXV
Komatina, Slavica
ODLIV STRUNJAKA IZ JUGOSLAVIJE
EXODUS OF TRAINED PROFESSIONAL PERSONNEL FROM YUGOSLAVIA
25-46
K.r.: odliv mozgova, intelektualne migracije, visokoobrazovani emigranti
K.w.: brain drain, migrations of intellectuals, highly qualified emigrants
Egzodus strunjaka, poznatiji kao "odliv mozgova", predstavlja masovne migracije visokostrune radne snage koja se iseljava iz
nerazvijenih u razvijene zemlje u potrazi za boljim uslovima ivota i rada. Ova pojava postaje izraena sredinom ezdesetih godina,
kada poinje masovno migriranje strunjaka iz zemalja u razvoju u razvijene zemlje, a taj proces vremenom intenzivira, obuhvata sve
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vei broj zemalja i u njemu uestvuje sve vie ljudi.

Odliv strunjaka iz Jugoslavije poslednjih godina poprima dramatine razmere, zajedno sa burnim drutvenim previranjima na naem
tlu. Uprkos tome, veoma je mali broj autora koji se bavi ovim problemom, pre svega zbog nedostatka elementarnih izvora
informacija. Prouavanje problematike spoljnih migracija, a naroito migracija radne snage (kako u SFRJ, tako i u SRJ) oduvek se
zasnivalo na procenama autoriteta, jer javnosti nikada nisu bili dostupni tani podaci o broju i strukturi iseljenih.
Pored nepotpune statistike evidencije, u radu su izneti rezultati malobrojnih i uglavnom parcijalnih istraivanja ove pojave, kao i
neke procene. Iznoenjem karakteristika zaposlenosti, odnosno nezaposlenosti u naoj zemlji na indirektan nain se ukazuje na
eventualne razmere emigriranja strunjaka.
Poto se iseljavanje naunika i strunjaka iz nae zemlje uglavnom posmatra iz perspektive drutvenog gubitka (koji je neosporan), u
ovom radu je nainjen pokuaj da se ukae na zanemareni znaaj i legitimitet individualnog prava na lini uspeh.
Jugoslovensko drutvo je danas optereeno ne samo otvorenom, ve i prikrivenom nezaposlenou, kao i neadekvatnom
zaposlenou visokoobrazovnih strunjaka, pa o velikim drutvenim gubicima moemo govoriti i u odnosu na visokoobrazovane
graane nae zemlje. U situaciji veoma teke drutvene krize, u Jugoslaviji postoje dva nivoa "odliva mozgova": jedan se ogleda u
emigraciji strunjaka, a drugi u propadanju postojeih strunih potencijala.
Exodus of trained professional personnel, better known as Abrain drain," represents a mass migration of highly qualified workers and
intellectuals from under developed to the developed countries in search of greater opportunity in life and work. This phenomenon
became prominent in the mid 60s with mass migration of trained professional personnel from developing to the developed countries.
The process has gained in intensity over time comprising a growing number of countries and involving an increasing number of
people.
With vigorous social changes taking place throughout the country in recent years, the exodus of qualified labor from Yugoslavia has
gained dramatic proportions. Notwithstanding the above, very few authors engage in analyzing this issue primarily because of the
shortage of elementary sources of information. A study of external migration, especially migration of labor force (both in the SFRY
and the SRY), has always had to be based on estimates as the public has never had an access to precise data on the number and
composition of emigrants.
In addition to poor statistical records, this paper also displays the results of few and mostly partial studies of the phenomena as well
as some estimates. Data on employment and unemployment in the country can also be used to indirectly determine the scope of
emigration of skilled labor.
Since emigration of scientists and highly skilled workers and intellectuals from our country is regarded primarily as a social loss
(which is undeniable), an effort has been made in this paper to point to the undermined significance and the legitimacy of an
individual s right to personal attainment.
Yugoslav society is currently burdened not only by open but also by hidden unemployment as well as by inadequate employment of
the highly skilled professional personnel. Thus, when speaking of the great social loss, we may also relate it to the country s skilled
professional personnel. With a severe social crisis pervading the country, the Abrain drain" is manifested at two levels: as emigration
of skilled labor and as a deterioration of the available skilled labor potentials.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1997
godina XXXV
Raevi, Mirjana, Mina Petrovi
ISKUSTVA POPULACIONE POLITIKE U SVETU RELEVANTNA ZA ODGOVOR NA DEMOGRAFSKE
PROBLEME SRBIJE
CASE STUDIES IN POPULATION POLICY CONCERNING DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS IN SERBIA
47-65
K.r.: populaciona politika, fertilitet, mortalitet, migracije, starenje, razvijene zemlje, zemlje u razvoju
K.w.: population policy, fertility, mortality, migrations, population aging, developed countries, developing countries
Rad predstavlja sintezu iskustava populacione politike u svetu u dvadesetom veku. Prezentirane su mortalitetna politika, politika
prema fertilitetu, politika prema starima i migratorna politika. Program akcije usvojen na kairskoj konferenciji posmatran je u
kontekstu novih pristupa populacionoj politici.
Politici u oblasti fertiliteta stanovnitva je posveen najvei deo ovog priloga, pre svega, zbog toga to je ona u najveoj meri
demografska politika i politika sa najvie nedoumica. Specifinost problema raanja u Srbiji uslovila je obuhvat iskustava razvijenih
i nerazvijenih zemalja. Dat je to konkretniji izraz principa, ciljeva i mera. Obraeno je i pitanje efikasnosti odnosno razlozi
izostavljanja eljenih efekata.
Analiza je pokazala da osobine i rezultati dosadanje politike u oblasti fertiliteta stanovnitva i mere koje se predlau za sledee
decenije otkrivaju krupne probleme koji se gotovo granie sa nemoi i u razvijenim zemljama i u zemljama u razvoju, za razliku od
mortalitetne i migratorne politike i politikog odgovora na starenje populacije. Pored nesumnjivog napretka u kvalitativnom smislu rasprostranjenost, postavljena naela, principi i ciljevi, izgraen insitucionalni okvir - natalitetna politika nije dovoljno efikasna da
rei populacioni problem. Akcije u prilog raanja odnosno njegovog ograniavanja moraju biti intenzivnije, celovitije i istraivake.
Ekonomski razvoj koji bi respektovao demografski faktor u svetu koji se razvija i populaciona edukacija u razvijenom svetu se
nameu kao mogui novi pravci politike. Meutim, veliki i moda najsloeniji problem koji populaciona politika treba da savlada
nalazi se u sferi svesti - dravnoj, politikoj, drutvenoj i individualnoj.
Attention has been given to the direction and type of measures to be taken in the immediate future dealing with fertility, mortality,
migration policies and problem of population ageing. A major portion of the article is devoted to the policy of population fertility and
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aims to contribute to the research of experiences in implementation of population policy across the world. Interest in this particular
policy is due not only to the fact that it represents the demographic policy per se and implies the greatest number of uncertainties, but
also because of the need and widespread demands for its implementation in our country.
The main features and results of the policy implemented so far in the area of population fertility as well as the measures proposed
over the coming decades disclose major problems which are almost impossible to resolve in both the developed and the developing
world as opposed to the mortality and migratory policies and the political response to the ageing of population. Despite doubtless
improvements in terms of quality - coverage, principles and targets, developed institutional framework - fertility policy is not
efficient enough to resolve the population-related problems. Steps to increase or decrease the birth rate must be more intensive, more
comprehensive and scientifically based. The possible new policy directions lie in economic development which takes into account
the demographic factor in the developing world and the population education in the developed countries. However, major and
probably the most complex issue to be resolved by the population policy lies in the sphere of awareness at the level of the state,
political authorities, social structures and individuals.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1997
godina XXXV
Janji Komar, Marina
PRAVO NA RAZVOD BRAKA
RIGHT TO DIVORCE
67-76
K.r.: razvod, pravo, reforma
K.w.: divorce, law, reform
Razvod braka u poslednih dve decenije pretrpeo je znaajne promene. Neuspeh porodinog ivota postaje drutveno relevantna
injenica samo u odnosu na posledicu koje izaziva razvod braka. Sam razvod kao takav sve se manje regulie i ovaj liberalni odnos
prema razvodu utie i na sve manji drutveni znaaj braka.
Koncepcije razvoda su razliite: skrivljeni razvod, razvod slom, odvojen ivot, sporazumni razvod itd. Opredeljenje za neku od ovih
koncepcija ukazuje na znaaj uzroka za razvod braka dok u nekim pravima jo samo postupak za razvod braka predstavlja domen
pravnog odluivanja.
Jugoslovensko pravo odslikava sve dileme oko razvoda braka. Ako bi se nastojalo da brak ima vei socijalni znaaj trebalo bi da sud
ima ovlaenje da odbije razvod braka ako bi razvod braka izazvao velike finansijske probleme ili bi predstavljao oiglednu nepravdu
za jednog branog druga. Poto postupak razvoda dolazi u prvi plan, dobija na znaaju postupak medijacije. Tako razvod braka ne
predstavlja samo razvod lek ve se tako dolazi do odgovornog razvoda.
In the course of the last two decades, divorce underwent significant changes. The failure of community life has become a socially
relevant fact only in respect of the consequences of divorce. The divorce itself is increasingly less regulated and such liberal attitude
decreases the social significance of marriage.
There are different concepts of divorce: divorce by default of one of the spouses, dissolution of marriage, judicial separation, divorce
by mutual consent of the spouses, etc. Opting for one of the concepts points to the significance of the cause of divorce while in some
juridical systems only the divorce procedure lies in the domain of legal proceedings.
Standing Yugoslav marriage law reflects all the dilemmas concerning divorce. If the intention was to increase the social significance
of marriage, courts would be empowered to deny divorce on grounds of financial distress or obvious injustice to one of the spouses.
As the divorce procedure is given the emphasis, the procedure of mediation gains in significance. As a result, divorce no longer
represents just a remedy but becomes a responsible divorce.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1997
godina XXXV
Stankovi, Vladimir
NEKA ISKUSTVA IZ POPISA STANOVNITVA 1981. GODINE
THE EXPERIENCE GAINED FROM THE 1981 CENSUS
77-89
K.r.: probni popis, prisutnost, klasifikacija naselja, standardizacija, logika kontrola
K.w.: pre-tests, presence, classification of settlements, standardization, logical control
Ve po ustaljenoj tradiciji, razmatranje nekih kljunih metodolokih pitanja popisa stanovnitva, pre i posle izvrenih probnih popisa,
izaziva pojaanu panju strune javnosti.
Naalost, za veinu tih probnih popisa pa i za probne popise koji su prethodili redovnom popisu 1981. godine, ne moe se rei da su
ostvarili svoj primarni zadatak koji se sastojao u definisanju sadraja redovnog popisa i empirijskoj proveri pouzdanosti
metodolokog instrumentarija koji e pri njegovoj realizaciji biti primenjen. Sadrinska nepodudarnost probnih i redovnih popisa,
kao i korienje ad hoc utvrenih metodolokih reenja u probnim popisima postaju, sudei po dosadanjim iskustvima,
prepoznatljive karakteristike jugoslovenske statistike prakse.
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U radu se, takoe, daje osvrt na neka vana metodoloka-sadrinska pitanja kao to su: 1. kategorizacija stanovita prema
"prisutnosti"; 2. potreba za sadrinskom standardizacijom popisa i redukcijom broja pitanja na popisnim obrascima; 3. potreba za
izradom adekvatnije statistike klasifikacije (tipologije) naselja; 4. mogunosti za dobijanje "izvedenih" obeleja; 5. problemi vezani
za realizaciju jedinstvenog projekta automatske obrade podataka; 6. utvrivanje kriterijuma logike kontrole i njihov uticaj na
kvalitet podataka i dr.
The analysis of certain key methodological issues concerning population censuses, both preceding and following pre-tests, has
traditionally been arousing heightened attention of experts.
Unfortunately, most of such pre-tests, including the one preceding the 1981 census taking, cannot be said to have attained their
primary task of defining the general census contents and empirically checking the reliability of the methodological instruments to be
applied in its taking. The differences in the contents of the pre-tests and general censuses as well as the ad hoc changes in the
methodology are now commonly met in practice.
The paper also deals with some important methodological and contents related issues such as: 1. the classification of the population
by residence (de jure or de facto)" 2. the standardization of the contents and the reduction of the number of items in census forms, 3.
the elaboration of a more adequate statistical classification (typology, of settlements, 4. the possibility of obtaining derived
characteristics, 5. the problems related to the uniform system of automatic data processing; 6. the criteria of logical control and their
influence on data reliability, etc.
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/komentar
broj 1-2/1997
godina XXXV
Proki, Milutin
MEUNARODNE PREPORUKE I PRAKSA JUGOSLOVENSKIH POPISA
91-105
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/komentar
broj 1-2/1997
godina XXXV
Melovski Trpinac, Olga
OBRADA ANKETNIH PODATAKA NA MIKRORAUNARIMA SISTEM ISSA
107-118
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1997
godina XXXV
Predojevi, Jelena
WILLY BOSVELD "THE AGEING OF FERTILITY IN EUROPE A COMPARATIVE DEMOGRAPHICANALYTIC STUDY"
119-125
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1997
godina XXXV
prikaz
Stevanovi, Radoslav
GORAN PENEV, LJILJANA SEKULI I DRAGOLJUPKA CICOVI "PROJEKCIJE STANOVNITVA SAVEZNE
REPUBLIKE JUGOSLAVIJE 1991-2021."
126-131
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1997
godina XXXV
Todorovi, Luka
MARINA JANJI-KOMAR I MIRJANA OBRETKOVI "PRAVA DETETA PRAVA OVEKA
131-135
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1997
godina XXXV
Mudrenovi, Svetlana
JACQUES VALLIN, STAN D'SOUZA, ALBERTO PALLONI "MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS OF
MORTALITY NEW APROACHES"
136-141
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1997
godina XXXV
Radivojevi, Biljana
DUAN OI "DEMOGRAFIJA SA STATISTIKOM"
141-146
***************************************************************************
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1997
godina XXXV
Macura, Miroslav
FERTILITY AND NUPTIALITY CHANGES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE: 1982 - 1993
PROMENE U FERTILITETU I NUPCIJALITETU U CENTRALNOJ I ISTONOJ EVROPI: 1982-1993
11-44
K.w.: fertility, nuptiality, Central and Eastern Europe
K.r.: fertilitet, nupcijalitet, centralna i istona Evropa
Central and east European countries are in the midst of a major demographic change, that for the most part appears to have been
brought about by the on-going political, economic and social transformation of these countries. The strength of the change varies
considerably across the counties, quite likely as a consequences of the variations in the depth and breadth of the transformation and
the attitude of the people towards it. It appears that, at least, a few years will elapse before the demographers studying these countries
will be able to draw a relatively comprehensive picture of the demographic developments in these countries since the turn of the
1980s. This paper seeks to contribute to this picture by documenting changes over time in fertility and first marriage in more than
half of the transition countries, which appear to have been associated with the transformation under way. The analysis focuses on the
time patterns in the levels and timing of overall fertility and first marriage among women during 1982-1993. It does not seek to
explain how the various aspects of the transformation might have influenced those patterns; this would require a separate analysis.
Having included in the analysis several years prior to the onset of the transformation, we seek to answer the following questions:
What were the nature, timing and magnitude of the changes in overall fertility and first marriage, which are respectively measured by
the period total fertility rate and the period total first marriage rate? Were the changes in first marriage accompanied by those in nonmarital cohabitation? Although interesting in its own right, this question is addressed as a side issue due to data limitations, by
looking at the proportions of extramarital births. And lastly, were the shifts in overall fertility and first marriage accompanied by
those in their timing, as measured by the mean age of childbearing and the mean age at entry into first marriage, respectively? The
analysis is cast within a broader European context by making comparisons between the countries with economies in transition and
selected European countries with market economies.
Zemlje centralne i istone Evrope nalaze se usred velikih demografskih promena, to je umnogome prouzrokovano politikim,
ekonomskim i socijalnim transformacijama u ovim zemljama. Intenzitet tih demografskih promena se razlikuje od zemlje do zemlje,
najverovatnije kao posledica varijacija u jaini i rasprostranjenosti transformacija, kao i odnosa ljudi prema njima. Trebalo bi da
prodje jo najmanje nekoliko godina pre nego to demografi budu u stanju da stvore potpunu sliku demografskog razvoja u ovim
zemljama od zaokreta u 1980-im. Ovaj rad ima za cilj da doprinese stvaranju te slike tako to u vie od pola zemalja u tranziciji kroz
vreme prikae promene u fertilitetu i prvoj branosti, za koje se ispostavilo da su povezane sa politikom i ekonomskom
transformacijom. Centralni deo analize je usmeren ka definisanju promena nivoa i starosnog modela kada je u pitanju ukupan
fertilitet i prva branost kod ena tokom 1982-1993. Cilj rada nije da objasni na koji su nain razliiti aspekti transformacije mogli da
utiu na pomenute promene; ovo bi zahtevalo posebnu analizu. S obzirom da su u analizu ukljuene i godine koje su neposredno
prethodile poetku transformacija, elimo da odgovorimo na sledea pitanja: Kakva je priroda i intenzitet promena u ukupnom
fertilitetu i prvoj branosti, koje su respektivno merene stopom ukupnog fertiliteta i stopom prve branosti? Da li su promene u prvoj
branosti praene onima u vanbranim zajednicama? Iako samo po sebi interesantno, ovo pitanje je zbog nedostupnosti podataka
postavljeno kao sporedna tema i posmatrano kroz udeo vanbranih rodjenja. I na kraju, da li su se dogodile i promene u starosnom
modelu kada je u pitanju ukupan fertilitet i prva branost, to je mereno prosenom starou ene pri radjanju dece i prosenom
starou ene pri ulasku u prvi brak, respektivno? Analiza je usmerena i na iri evropski kontekst, tako to su pravljena poredjenja
izmedju zemalja sa ekonomijama u tranziciji i izabranih evropskih zemalja sa trinim ekonomijama.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1997
godina XXXV
Raevi, Miroslav
PROCENA OSNOVNIH PARAMETARA STANOVNITVA OBLASTI BRANKOVIA ZA 1455. GODINU
AN ESTIMATE OF THE BASIC PARAMETERS OF THE POPULATION IN THE BRANKOVIA REGION FOR
1455
45-92
K.r.: istorija, popis, stanovnitvo, procene.
K.w.: history, cencus, population, the estimates
Rezultati procene koji se saoptavaju u ovom lanku deo su ireg istraivanja o demografskim prilikama i stanovnitvu, preduzetog u
okviru projekta "Naselja i stanovnitvo Oblasti Brankovia 1455. godine", koji je organizovao Odbor za nauno prouavanje
stanovnitva Srpske akademije nauka i umetnosti.
Osnovu za procenu demografskih parametara predstavljali su rezultati fiskalnog popisa iz 1455 godine. Popis su sprovele turske
vlasti po osvajanju Oblasti Brankovia, koja je geografski pripadala jednom delu dananjeg Kosova. On je spadao u kategoriju
feudalnog popisa, u kojem su registrovane novane i naturalne obaveze stanovnitva prema lokalnim feudalnim vlastima. Prema
propisima turskih vlasti predmet popisa su predstavljali poljoprivrednici i drugi stanovnici sela i meovitih naselja, a ne i stoari i
stanovnitvo gradskih naselja kao i ono koje je bilo u vojnoj i feudalnoj slubi.
Popisom je obuhvaeno 645 sela, ukljuujui i 42 opustela, 1 meovito naselje 15 crkava i manastira, meu kojima i 2 naputene i 31
mezra. Za svaku od ovih jedinica registrovana su imena mukaraca i ena-udovica poreskih obveznika, koji su se nalazili na elu
"kua" ili delova "kua" u sluaju viegeneracijskih porodica, zatim imena monaha i neoenjenih mukaraca (koji su prema turskim
propisima takoe bili poreski obveznici). Uz imena stareina "kua" mukaraca (ne i za ostale kategorije poreskih obveznika)
naveden je dodatni podatak, najee o porodinom poreklu (ime oca) ili rodbinskoj vezi sa nekim od popisanih poreskih obveznika,
ree podaci o zanimanju, narodnosti, migracionom obeleju ili socijalnom statusu.
Procene demografskih parametara izraene su na dva nivoa: prvi, iji je neposredni izvor turski popis, i drugi, koji nema uporite u
rezultatima popisa. Na prvom nivou procenjen je ukupan broj stanovnika i strukture mukaraca stareina "kua" prema zanimanju,
narodnosti i migracionom i socijalnom statusu, a na drugom, starosno-polna struktura i visina nataliteta i mortaliteta stanovnitva.
Kao metod procene ukupnog broja stanovnika korien je indeks o prosenoj veliini "kue". Za kuu" na ijem elu su mukarci
indeks je procenjen na 4,40. Pri ovoj proceni imale su se u vidu primenjene definicije "kue" u popisu i dugo trajanje neredovnih
prilika za vreme ratnih godina.
Vrednost indeksa o prosenoj veliini "kue" na ijem su elu ene-udovice procenjen je na 2,50. Ova procena je zasnovana na
pretpostavci da su se na elu "kua" u najveem broju nalazile mlae ene-udovice i da one zadravaju status stareine do enidbe
nastarijeg sina.
Neoenjeni mukarci i monasi vrednovani su sa indeksom 1.
Na osnovu procenjenih indeksa i podataka popisa o broju poreskih obveznika ukupan broj stanovnika Oblasti je procenjen na 67480
(tabela 2).
Procena broja stanovnika po starosti izvrena je po velikim grupama. Iznete su dve hipoteze. Prva, 42% dece do 14 godina temelji se
na sastavu porodice koji pretpostavlja indeks o prosenoj veliini "kue" i druga, 3% stanovnitva 65 i vie godina - oslanja se na
uobiajenu proporciju starih u populacijama sa visokim natalitetom i mortalitetom.
Procena polne strukture je izvrena na osnovu hipoteza o broju mukaraca na 100 ena: u starosnoj grupi 0-14 godina pretpostavljeno
je da indeks iznosi 100, u starosnoj grupi 15-64 godine 90, a u starosnoj grupi 65 i vie godina 70. Ove hipoteze su zasnovane na
uticaju neredovnih prilika kroz koje je prolazilo stanovnitvo Oblasti u poslednjih 60 godina.
Rezultati procene starosne strukture prikazani su u tabeli 3.
Visina nataliteta je procenjena na osnovu sledeih hipoteza: udeo ena od 15-49 godina u ukupnom broju ena je 49%, udeo plodnih
ena u reproduktivnom dobu je 64%, udeo plodnih ena koji nije uestvovao u prokreativnom periodu u posmatranaoj godini iznosio
je 15-25% i verovatnoa zaea ena aktivnih u prokreativnom procesu je 0,36%. Hipoteze su zasnovane na optim demografskim
znanjima i uslovima kroz koje je prolazilo stanovitvo Oblasti. Rezultati su prikazani u tri varijante (tabela 4), s tim to je ocenjeno
da je visina stope 43,7 i 46,6 blia realnosti nego stopa sa vrednou 49,5.
Procena visine optog mortaliteta, u odsustvu izvornih podataka, oslanja se na raspoloive podatke za srednjevekovne populacije. U
tom smislu korieni su podaci o srednjem trajanju ivota. Izraene su 4 varijante (tabela 5) prema kojima se opta stopa mortaliteta
u Oblasti mogla kretati izmeu 37,0 i 43,5, s tim to je prednost data varijantama sa viim vrednostima.
Socijalne i ekonomske strukture su procenjene na osnovu parcijalnih podataka popisa. Njihova je osobenost to su na pitanja o
strukturnim obelejima registrovani samo odgovori koji su se razlikovali od tipine situacije veinskog dela populacije i to su
odgovori dati samo za jedno od stukturnih obeleja. Na osnovu dobijenih rezultata o ekonomskoj strukturi dominiraju
poljoprivrednici, u strukturi migranata najvie je onih koji su se selili u okviru Oblasti, meu licima registrovanim sa nekim od
socijalnih obeleja najvie je siromaha i starih, a prema narodnosti Srbi su daleko najbrojniji, a u neznatnom broju su registrovani
Albanci, Bugari, Grci i Hrvati.
Rezulati procene pokazuju da je demografska situacija u 1455. godini delila karakteristike veine populacija tog vremena. To
potvruje visok nivo prirodnih komponenata, mlada starosna struktura i homogenost ekonomskih i socijalnih struktura stanovnitva.
Na drugoj strani, rezultati procene otkrivaju jasne poremeaje u demografskom razvitku Oblasti to ilustruju vikovi enskog
stanovnitva i vei broj opustelih i patuljastih naselja pa se sa razlogom moe pretpostaviti da se broj stanovnika smanjivao u
kritinim razdobljima kroz koja je Oblast prolazila.
The estimates reported in this paper are part of a broader research on demographic environment and population undertaken within the
project "Settlements and Population in the Brankovia Region in 1455" organized by the Board for Scientific Study of the
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Population of the Serbian Academy of Science and Arts.

The estimates of demographic parameters were based on the results of the fiscal census taken in 1455 by Turkish authorities
following invasion of the Brankovia region which, in terms of geography, is part of the today's Kosovo. This census was kind of a
feudal census in which obligations of the population towards local feudal authorities were registered both in terms of money and in
kind. Pursuant to the regulations spelled out by Turkish authorities, the farmers, and other villagers as well as the inhabitants of
mixed settlements were enumerated. However, neither the cattle breeders nor urban population or those in the military and feudal
service, were registered.
The census was taken in 645 villages of which 42 were deserted, 1 mixed settlement, 15 churches and monasteries, two of which
were deserted, and in 31 mezras. The record listed the names of males and female widowed tax payers acting as heads of "houses" or
parts of "houses" in case of multiple generation families, as well as the names of monks and bachelors (who, by Turkish rules, were
also liable to tax payment). The name of a male "house" head (but not that of any other tax payers category), was followed by
additional data, primarily regarding family origin (father's name) or kinship to the registered tax payer, and much more rarely
regarding occupation, nationality, migration and social status.
These estimates were either directly based on Turkish sources or not based on the census results at all. In case of the former, the total
number of inhabitants as well as the composition of male "house" heads by occupation, nationality, migration and social status were
estimated. In the latter case, the age-gender structure, as well as the population natality and mortality were assessed.
To estimate total population, an index for the average size of a "house" was calculated based on the census definition and bearing in
mind long periods of distress during the time of war. This index was estimated to 4.40 for the "house" headed by a male.
The index for the average size of the "house" with a widowed female as head was estimated to 2.50. This estimate is based on the
assumption that these widows were most often relatively young and that they had kept their status only until their eldest sons
married.
The index for bachelors and monks was 1.
Based on such indices and the census data on the number of tax payers, total population of the Region was estimated to 67480 (Table
2).
The age-specific estimates of the population size were made within large groups. Two hipothesis were presented. In the first, the
share of children below 14 years of age is estimated at 42% based on the family composition assuming an index on the average size
of the "house", and in the second, the share of population aged 65 and over is estimated at 3% based on the usual proportion of the
old in populations with high natality and mortality.
The estimate of the composition of population by gender was based on the hypothesis on the number of males per 100 females. In the
0-14 age group, this index was estimated at 100 and at 90 in the 15-64 age group while in the age group of 65 and over, this index
was estimated at 70. This hypothesis is based on the impact of the state of distress in the course of the 60 years observed.
The age-specific estimate of the population is shown in Table 3.
Natality was estimated on the basis of the following hypothesis: the share of women aged 15-49 in total was 49%, the share of fertile
women of reproductive age 64%, the share of fertile women not participating in procreation during the year observed 15-25% while
the probability that women active in the process of procreation would conceive was 0.36%. These hypothesis were based on the
general demographic knowledge and the awareness of the conditions prevailing in the Region at that time. The results are presented
in three versions (Table 4). The rates 43.7 and 46.6 were assessed as more realistic than the 49.5 per thousand.
Lacking original data, the estimate on the general mortality relies on the available data concerning populations in the Middle Ages,
particularly as regards the mean length of life. Four versions were constructed (Table 5), and the general mortality rate in the Region
is estimated to had varied from 37.0 to 43.5 per thousand. The higher value estimates are assessed as more probable.
The social and economic structures were assessed on the basis of partial census data. It is characteristic that the answers to questions
on structural features were registered only if such features stood out from the typical situation of the majority population. Besides, the
answers contained reference to only one structural feature. Based on the results it may be concluded that the economic structure was
dominated by farmers; that migrations usually took place within the Region; that the social feature referred to was most often the
poor and the old; in terms of nationality, that the Serbs were dominant while the number of registered Albanians, Bulgarians, Greeks
and Croats was insignificant.
The estimates show that the demographic situation in the Region in 1455 was similar to that of other populations of that time. This is
confirmed by a high level of natural components, young age composition and the homogenity of economic and social population
structures. On the other hand, the estimates clearly reveal disruptions in demographic development of the Region as illustrated by
excess female population and a large number of deserted or dwarf settlements. Thus, it can reasonably be assumed that the size of the
population declined in periods of distress to which the Region was exposed.
asopis Stanovnitvo
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godina XXXV
Raevi, Mirjana
FAKTORI PRIRODNOG FERTILITETA
FACTORS AFFECTING NATURAL FERTILITY
93-108
K.r.: prirodni fertilitet stanovnitva, verovatnoa zaea, proseni prokreativni kapacitet
K.w.: natural fertility of population, probability of conception, average procreative capacity
Prirodni potencijal za raanje dece, formalno posmatrano, je veliki. Poto normalna trudnoa traje devet meseci, potencijalno plodna ena
bi teorijski mogla da rodi najmanje jedno dete godinje odnosno 35 dece tokom reproduktivnog perioda, aproksimativno limitiranog
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izmeu 15 i 50 godina starosti. U populacijama koje po pravilu karakterie odsustvo kontrole prirodnog potencijala, pak, prosean broj
roene dece po jednoj eni nije ni izbliza tako veliki. Najee iznosi oko 6 ili 7 dece.
Rad predstavlja pregled odgovora na pitanje porekla razlike izmeu teorijskog, formalno postavljenog okvira za raanje i stvarnog raanja
u uslovima kada se ono ne ograniava. U tom smislu je prikazano Lorimerovo (1954) razmatranje prosenog prokreativnog kapaciteta
nekontraceptivne populacije koja ivi pod "relativno povoljnim ivotnim uslovima" u kome je naglasak na biolokim faktorima. Zatim,
imajui u vidu da vrednost procene prosenog prokreativnog kapaciteta zavisi u najveoj meri od realnosti prihvaene pretpostavke o
efektivnoj verovatnoi zaea plodnih ena u jednoj kalendarskoj godini, izloeno je vie modela verovatnoe zaea. Takoe, navedeno je
Bongaartsovo (1993) istraivanje relativnog doprinosa faktora razliite prirode na nivo prirodnog fertiliteta koje je pokazalo znaaj faktora
individualnog ponaanja.
Izloeno pitanje o prirodnoj osnovi raanja dece je pokazalo svu njegovu sloenost i vanost. Najnovija istraivanja postojeim znanjima i
osnovnim pretpostavkama dodali su nova. To se posebno odnosi na znaaj individualnog ponaanja kao determinante prirodnog fertiliteta
stanovnitva. Dokazi o znaaju individualnog ponaanja kao determinante prirodnog fertiliteta ne pretpostavljaju postojanje planiranja
porodice kao stila ivota pojedinca ve istiu ulogu socijalnih normi, moralnih kodeksa i zakonskih reenja, proizvoda drutvene svesti,
koji upliviu i nadziru odluke ene i mukarca vezane za porodini ivot i raanje dece u populacija u kojima se svesno ne kontrolie
plodnost. Istovremeno ovi dokazi su indirektan odgovor na pitanje da li postoje velike razlike u genetskom potencijalu za raanje dece
meu razliitim populacijama. Zakljuak da bioloki faktori imaju ogranien uticaj na prirodni fertilitet ukazuje da ukoliko ove razlike i
postoje one nisu takvog stepena da su znaajne za nivo raanja u populacijama koje ne kontroliu plodnost. Samim tim njihov znaaj u
populacijama sa rairenom kontrolom raanja je jo manji.
Formally speaking, natural potential to bear children is substantial. Since normal pregnancy lasts nine months, a potentially fertile
woman could theoretically give birth to at least one child per year, which is 35 children during her reproductive period limited to
approximately 15 to 50 years of age. However, in populations which, as a rule, do not exercise control of the natural potential, the
average number of live births per a woman is by far lower. Most often it is about 6 to 7 children per woman.
The paper represents a review of the origins of the difference between the theoretical, formally formulated framework for child
bearing and the actual child bearing in conditions in which it is not controlled. Against such background is set the Lorimer's (1954)
analysis of the average procreative capacity of the non-contraceptive population enjoing "relatively favourable living conditions" in
which an emphasis is placed on biological factors. In addition, in view of the fact that the estimate of the average procreative capacity
depends to a large measure on the reliability of the adopted assumptions regarding efective probability of fertile women to conceive
in the course of one calendar year, a number of models is presented regarding probability of conception. Besides, a note is taken og
Bongaarts (1993) research regarding relative contribution of various factors to the level of natural fertility which has pointed to the
significance of an individual's behaviour factors.
Discussion of the naturalbasis for child bearing has fully emphasized the complexity and significance of the issue. The latest research
has thrown the additional light on the earlier conceptions and assumptions. This particularly refers to the significance of an
individual's behaviour as determinant of the natural fertility of population. Proofs of the significance of individual behaviour as
determinants of natural fertility do not assume family planning as an individual's life style but place an emphasis on the role of social
norms, moral codex, legal arrangements and social awareness which affect and control decisions of men and women regarding family
planning and child bearing in populations in which fertility is not checked on purpose. At the same time, these proofs represent a
direct responce to the question regarding major differences in genetic potential for child bearing between different populatins. The
conclusion that the biological factors have a limited impact on the natural fertility indicates that even taht these differences do oxist,
they are not too large enough to affect the level of child bearing in population which do not practice fertility control. Consequently,
their impact in populations wchich widely practice population control is even less significant.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1997
godina XXXV
Penev, Goran
DEMOGRAFSKE DETERMINANTE STARENJA STANOVNITVA SR JUGOSLAVIJE. MODELSKI PRISTUP
DEMOGRAPHIC DETERMINANTS OF POPULATION AGING IN FR YUGOSLAVIA. A MODEL APPROACH
109-129
K.r.: starenje, simulacija, modeli stanovnitva, fertilitet, mortalitet, migracije, Jugoslavija
K.w.: aging, simulation, population models, fertility, mortality, migration, Yugoslavia
U radu su sagledani osnovni pravci i intenzitet promena starosne strukture stanovnitva SR Jugoslavije, njenih republika i pokrajina
u periodu po zavretku Drugog svetskog rata. Posebna panja je posveena demografskim determinan-tama starenja stanovnitva,
naroito izmeu 1961. i 1991. godine. Za procenu uticaja promena fertiliteta, mortaliteta i spoljnih migracija na transformaciju
starosne strukture korien je metod projekcija. Analiza je zasnovana na rezultatima simulacije etiri modela stanovnitva koja su
konstruisana polazei od inicijalne starosne strukture iz 1961. i na bazi razliitih kombinacija pretpostavki o kretanjima fertiliteta i
mortaliteta u narednih 30 godina.
Efekti promene komponenti demografskog rasta na odvijanje procesa starenja su dobijeni poreenjem starosnih struktura modelskih
populacija u 1991. godini. Autor zakljuuje da je pad fertiliteta direktno ubrzavao starenje od baze starosne piramide, ali posredno i
starenje s vrha. Promene u smrtnosti stanovnitva su dvostruko delovale na proces starenja: zbog opadanja smrtnosti mladih one su
ga usporavale, a istovremeno su ga ubrzavale zbog produavnja oekivanog trajanja ivota starih. Posmatrano u celini, u SR
Jugoslaviji je pad mortaliteta u periodu 1961-1991. uzrokovao sporije odvijanje starenja, ali je njegovo dejstvo na promenu starosne
strukture stanovnitva bitno manjeg znaaja od sutinski suprotnog dejstva koje je bilo prouzrokovano promenama fertiliteta.
Spoljne migracije tj. negativan migracioni saldo su na nivou SR Jugoslavije imale najmanjeg uticaja na proces starenja. Iako je
dejstvo migracija vrlo slabo, one su takoe uticale na ubrzanje procesa starenja.
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The paper presents basic directions and intensity of change in age structure of the population in FR Yugoslavia broken down by its
republics and provinces during the period after the World War II. A special emphasis is placed on demographic determinants of
population aging, particularly from 1961 to 1991. A method of demographic projections was used to assess the impact of changes in
fertility, mortality and external migration on transformation in the age structure. The analysis is based on the results of simulations on
four population models constructed on the basis of the initial age structure in 1961 and various combinations of assumptions on
movement in fertility and mortality in the course of 30 years to come.
The impact of changes in components of demographic growth on the process of aging were obtained by comparing age structures of
model populations in 1991. The author argues that the decline in fertility directly induced aging from the base of the age pyramid
and, indirectly, from top of the pyramid. Changes in mortality had a twofold impact on the demographic aging: the process was
decelerated by the decline in mortality of the young and, at the same time, accelerated by the increase in life expectancy of the old.
On the overall, the decline in mortality in the FR of Yugoslavia in 1961-1991, caused deceleration in the population aging but its
impact on the change in age composition was of a much lesser importance than that of the crucially opposite impact caused by
changes in fertility.
The impact of external migration, i.e., the negative migratory balance at the level of the FR of Yugoslavia was the least significant
for the process of demographic aging. Although the impact of migration was very weak, they also induced an increase in the
population aging.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/1997
godina XXXV
Kuburovi, Ankica
STAVOVI O REPRODUKCIJI STANOVNITVA U DELIMA SVETOZARA MARKOVIA
POPULATION REPRODUCTION IN THE WORKS OF SVETOZAR MARKOVI
131-148
K.r.: reprodukcija stanovnitva, Svetozar Markovi, humanizacija reprodukcije, emancipacija ene
K.w.: population reproduction, Svetozar Markovi, humanization of reproduction, emancipation of women
Svetozar Markovi eksplicira stav da se reprodukcija stanovnitva analizira kao vano drutveno pitanje. U "teoriji o umnoavanju
ljudstva", koja je nastala kao kritika Maltusovih teorijskih shvatanja, polazite ini razmatranje odnosa demografskog rasta i
ekonomskog i tehnolokog razvoja.
U skladu sa socijalistikim i marksistikim shvatanjima Markovi analizira komponente i dinamiku rasta stanovnitva i
deterministiku osnovu modela reprodukcije. Demografski rast jedne populacije treba da bude ekonomski racionalan, ali isto tako
treba da se stvore uslovi humanizacije reprodukcije stanovnitva. Proces emancipacije ene, kao subjekta raanja, poboljanje njenog
socijalnog statusa u ekonomskom, politikom i kulturnom smislu, uz akcenat na jaanje procesa obrazovanja predstavljaju polaznu
osnovu za stvaranje humanijih uslova reprodukovanja populacije.
U sloenom deterministikom spletu nivoa raanja proima se uticaj demografskih, ekonomskih, socijalnih, socijallno-psiholokih i
sociokulturnih inilaca.
Sa aspekta problema preobimnog raanja stanovnitva kljunu ulogu imaju proces obrazovanja i emancipacija ene. To su
socio-kulturni inioci ije bi delovanje trebalo da omogui smanjivanje nivoa raanja.
Svetozar Markovi explains in his works that population reproduction should be analyzed as an important social issue. A starting
point in his "theory of human multiplication," a criticism of Malthusian theoretical conceptions, is the relationship between
demographic, economic and technological development.
In line with the socialist and Marxist concepts, Markovi analyzes the components and population growth dynamics as well as the
deterministic base of the reproduction model. Demographic growth of a population should be economically rational but there should
also be created conditions to humanize population reproduction. A basic precondition for the creation of more humane conditions for
population reproduction lies in the process of emancipation of women and an improvement of its social status in the economic,
political and cultural sense.
Within the complex deterministic framework affecting the level of births, the impact of demographic, economic, social,
socio-psychological and socio-cultural factors is intertwined.
In solving the problem of "exceedingly high" population birth rate, a key role is played by the education process and emancipation of
women. These are the socio-cultural factors that should induce a decline in the birth rate.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
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godina XXXV
Raevi, Mirjana
XXIII SVETSKA POPULACIONA KONFERENCIJA, PEKING, 11-17. OKTOBAR
149-155
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1997
godina XXXV
Petrovi, Mina
ETNIKI, RELIGIJSKI I KONFESIONALNI ODNOSI NA BALKANU, NIKA BANJA, 29-31. MAJ
155-160
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/1997
godina XXXV
Raduki, Nada
LETNJA KOLA O ETNIKIM ODNOSIMA, KOTOR, 22. JUN-5. JUL
160-166
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1997
godina XXXV
Raduki, Nada
MIRJANA RAEVI (ur.) "RAZVITAK STANOVNITVA SRBIJE, 1950-1991."
167-174
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/1997
godina XXXV
Kuburovi, Ankica
MARINA BLAGOJEVI "RODITELJSTVO I FERTILITET: SRBIJA 90-IH"
174-178
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1998
godina XXXVI
urev, Branislav S.
DVA VEKA MALTUSA
TWO CENTURIES OF MALTHUS
7-24
K.r.: Maltusova teorija, stanovnitvo, odrivi razvoj
K.w.: Malthusian theory, population, sustainable development
Rad predstavlja pokuaj uporednog sagledavanja klasinih i novih teorija i/ili teorijskih koncepata o odnosima razvoja stanovnitva i
sveukupnog odrivog razvoja. Na dvestotu godinjicu od pojave prvog eseja koji je pokrenuo brojne rasprave o ovim odnosima
nauna elita nije se pribliila konsenzusu. Ne samo da se i dalje nadograuju postavke Maltusa, neomaltuzijanaca i marksistikih
mislilaca nego se javljaju i potpuno nove ideje o ovim odnosima.
Zanemarujui ideoloka neslaganja, a naglaavajui tehnoloke razlike, koje su u svetu postojale a i danas postoje, u radu se ukazuje i
na mogue proimanje i nadopunjavanje naizgled nepomirljivih teorija. Teorija Maltusa mogla je biti valjana u uslovima seljakog
drutva, ali su socijalisti ukazali na njene mane u industrijskom drutvu. Neomaltuzijanci su osavremenili Maltusovo uenje, a u
"Granicama rasta" nailazimo na egzaktniju podrku neomaltuzijanskim strahovima. Teorija E. Boserup ne samo konzistentno
objanjava odnose dosadanjeg rasta stanovnitva i odrivog razvoja, nego i ukazuje na sutinu teorijskih sporova. Na kratak rok, u
okviru jednog tehnolokog nivoa (pojednostavljeno, naina proizvodnje) svi su u pravu: postojani rast broja stanovnika rezultira, na
kraju, opadajuim prinosima (prekobrojnim stanovnitvom). Na dugi rok, kritina masa stanovnitva stvara novi tehnoloki nivo,
koji, u poetku, zahteva poveavanje gustine stanovnitva (nove "zakone" stanovnitva).
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The article is an endeavor to comparatively review classic and modern theories and/or theoretical concepts regarding relationship
between population development and the overall sustainable development. On the second centennial anniversary of the first essay
that initiated numerous discussions regarding this relationship, it cannot be said that the scientific elite is any nearer the consensus.
Not only that the hypothesis of Malthus , Neo-Malthusians and Marxist thinkers are being built upon, but completely new ideas
regarding this relationship are springing up.
Disregarding the ideological differences but placing emphasis on the technological discrepancies prevailing to this day, the article
also indicates that these apparently irreconcilable theories can permeate and complement each other. The Malthusian theory could be
valid in a peasant society but the socialists pointed to its flows in the industrial society. The Neo-Malthusians modernized the
teachings of Malthus and in the "Limits to Growth" we find a more exact support to the fears of Neo-Malthusians. The theory of E.
Boserup provides not only a consistent explanation of the relationship between population growth so far and sustainable
development but also points to the essence of theoretical differences. On the short run, at a certain technological level (that is,
manner of production), everybody is in the right: constant growth in population ultimately results in declining yields (excess
population). On the long run, critical mass of population creates a new technological level which, in the beginning, requires higher
population density (new "laws" of the population).
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1998
godina XXXVI
Bobi, Mirjana
KUE (PORODICE) U POPISU OBLASTI BRANKOVIA 1455. GODINE
HOUSES (FAMILIES) IN THE 1455 CENSUS FOR BRANKOVIA REGION
25-48
K.r.: kue, zadruge, bratske zajednice, Oblast Brankovia
K.w.: houses, cooperatives, brotherhoods, Brankovia region
U lanku se iznosi drugi deo rezultata ireg istraivanja istorijske porodice u Srbiji, na osnovu sauvanog fiskalnog popisa
stanovnitva tzv Oblasti Brankovia iz 1455. godine (teritorija dananjeg Kosova).
Obrada empirijskog materijala, koja je usledila na osnovu prethodne teorijsko-istorijske analize poljoprivredne porodice srednjeg
veka, kao svojevrsne forme domaeg ivota u prolosti, dovela je do sasvim neoekovanih rezultata. Nasuprot uobiajenim naunim
shvatanjima o staroj srpskoj porodici kao velikoj, patrijarhalnoj, brojnoj zajednici oca sa svojim potomcima i srodnicima (po
horizontalnoj i vertikalnoj liniji), sprovedena klasifikacija i numerika analiza izvedene na osnovu empirijske grae ovog,
specifinog popisa, ukazali su da je, preovladavao tip male ili inokosne grupe. Kada se u obzir, meutim, uzme agregatni nivo, ili
obuhvat popisanog dela stanovnitva, onda se dobija sasvim suprotan nalaz. Naime, iako su male, inokosne grupe bile brojnije, vei
deo poreskih obveznika (odraslih, aktivnih itelja preteno mukog pola) registrovanih u okviru sela u dokumentu, okupljalo se u
sloenije porodine zajednice (bratske i oinske). Po svom tipu, tj. unutranjem sastavu lanova, kompleksne domae unije najee
su bile savezi dvojice brae, i moe se rei da ovaj osnovni zakljuak korespondira nalazima meunarodnih antroplokih i istorijskodemografskih istraivanja.
The article presents the second part of a broader research of historic family in Serbia based on the 1455 fiscal census of the
population in Brankovia region (the territory of today's Kosovo).
Processing of the empirical data following theoretical and historical analysis of agricultural family in the Middle Ages as a typical
form of domestic life in the past, has brought totally unexpected results. Contrary to the usual scientific understanding of old Serb
family as a large patriarchal, numerous community of a father and his descendants and relatives (both along horizontal and vertical
lines), classification and numerical analysis derived from the empirical findings of this specific census have pointed that small or
independent groups prevailed. When, however, the analysis is made on the aggregate level, the results are quite the opposite.
Namely, though small individual groups were more numerous, a greater portion of tax payers (adult, economically active, primarily
male) population, registered in the villages in the document were gathered in more complex family communities (brotherhoods and
paternity). By type, that is, internal composition of members, complex domestic unions were most often the alliances between two
brothers. This conclusion corresponds to the findings of international anthropological and historical demographic studies.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1998
godina XXXVI
ALBANCI SIRINIKE UPE - PRILOG PROUAVANJU MULTIETNIKIH ZAJEDNICA ARPLANINSKOG
REGIONA SRBIJE
ALBANIANS OF THE SIRINI DISTRICT - A CONTRIBUTION TO THE STUDY OF MULTI-ETHNIC
COMMUNITIES OF THE ARA MOUNTAIN REGION OF SERBIA
49-80
K.r.: Sirinika upa, Albanci, demografski sistemi, migracije, poreklo, rod
K.w.: The Sirini district, Albanians, demographic systems, migration, origin, clan
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Sirinika upa je jedna od etiri planinske kotline (Sirini, Sredska, Opolje i Gora) u sklopu planinskog regiona are. Njene
geografske granice se uglavnom poklapaju sa administrativnim granicama optine trpce. Pominje se u srpskim izvorima prve
polovine XIV veka. Turski katastarski popis iz 1455. godine pokazuje da je bila relativno gusto naseljena Srbima. U Siriniku upu
Albanci se doseljavaju iz Severne Albanije posle druge velike seobe Srba 1737. godine, i to sa severne i istone strane, iz junog
Kosova, Kaanike klisure i Skopske kotline. Snanije prodiranje Albanaca u arplaninski region bilo je suzbijeno masovnom
islamizacijom Srba starosedelaca u upama Gora, Opolje i Sredska. Na taj nain je jo za vreme turske vladavine u ovom regionu
formirana tampon zona izrazitih multietnikih osobina koja se u osnovi odrala do danas. Zato je arplaninski region postao predmet
interesovanja mnogih domaih i stranih istraivaa ve od prve polovine XIX veka. Iz istog razloga je izmeu 1989. 1994. godine
Geografski institut "Jovan Cviji" SANU ovde izveo dva multidisciplinarna naunoistraivaka projekta, od kojih je prvi bio
posveen samo Sirinikoj upi. U okviru tog projekta autor ovoga rada je dobila zadatak da proui migracije i poreklo albanskog
stanovnitva i da organizuje i realizuje Vanredni popis stanovnitva optine trpce.
Doseljavanje Albanaca u Siriniku upu imalo je etapni karakter i zadralo se na zoni od 5 meovitih srpsko-albanskih naselja,
razdvajajui grupu od etiri homogena albanska i 7 homogena srpska naselja. Tako je jo u XIX veku formirana jedna relativno
stabilna etnogeografska struktura ije se teritorijalne i demografske proporcije nisu bitnije promenile kroz sve potonje periode burnih
istorijsko-politikih promena. Detaljna analiza etnike strukture pokazuje da se udeo Albanaca u ukupnom stanovnitvu upe od
1931. do 1989. godine poveao sa oko 29 na svega 33% i pored veoma visokog prirodnog prirataja koji je jo poetkom 1980-ih
godina kod Albanaca imao stopu iznad 30 promila. Meutim, i pored toga demografski rast Albanaca je ostao znatno ispod nivoa
bioloke reprodukcije zbog intenzivnog iseljavanja,odnosno negativnog migracionog salda ija se godinja stopa od 1961. do 1989.
godine kretala izmeu 21,8 i 26,5 promila. Uzroci iseljavanja su ekonomske prirode, i albanska emigracija iz upe je ve decenijama
usmerena ka Kosovu, Zapadnoj Makedoniji i Skopskoj kotlini. Emigracija u Tursku se javlja krajem XIX veka i oko balkanskih
ratova, obnavlja se poetkom 1950-ih godina (podstaknuta Balkanskim paktom FNRJ, Grka, Turska), ali nije bitna za ukupan
demografski razvitak sirinikih Albanaca. Od 1960-ih godina u porastu je albanska ekonomska emigracija u vajcarsku i Nemaku.
U ovom radu se takoe zastupa i shvatanje o paralelnom postojanju i funkcionisanju dva sutinski razliita homeostazna demografska
sistema - albanski i srpski, i to u istoj i kompaktnoj geografskoj sredini. Ukazano je i na ouvanu svest o fisnoj (plemenskoj)
pripadnosti, a na kraju rada dat je detaljan prikaz migracione dinamike i porekla albanskog stanovnitva sa imenima svih albanskih
rodova, brojem kua (porodica) i brojem lanova roda u 1989. godini.
The Sirini district is located in one of the four mountain valleys (Sirini, Sredska, Opolje and Gora) in the ara mountain region. Its
geographic boundaries almost match the administrative borders of the commune of trpce. It is first mentioned in Serb manuscripts
of the first half of the XIV century. The census taken in 1455 by the Turks shows a relatively high density of Serb population. The
Albanians immigrated to the Sirini district from northern Albania after the second mass migration of Serb population in 1737. They
came from north and east, from southern parts of Kosovo, Kaanika gorge and the Valley of Skoplje. A larger-scale settlement of
Albanians into the ara mountain region was prevented by massive Islamization of native Serb population in the districts of Gora,
Opolje and Sredska. Thus, a multi-ethnic buffer zone was formed during Turkish reign which has been basically preserved until
today. For this particular reason the region has attracted interest of many domestic and foreign researchers ever since early XIX
century. Elaboration of two multi-disciplinary scientific research projects by the Institute of Geography "Jovan Cviji" of the Serb
Academy of Science and Arts in the period from 1989 to 1994 was based on the same considerations. One of the projects is fully
concerned with the Sirini district and the author of this paper was asked to study migrations and the origins of Albanian population
as well as to organize and conduct a population census in the commune of trpce.
Immigration of Albanians to the Sirini district took place in several phases which ultimately led to the formation of five mixed
Serb-Albanian settlements located between a group of four homogenous Albanian and seven such Serb settlements. Thus, a relatively
stable ethnic and geographic structure was formed as early as in the XIX century. Its territorial and demographic proportions did not
substantially change regardless of all tumultuous historical and political events that had since taken place. A more detailed analysis
shows that the share of Albanians in total population of the district rose from about 29% in 1931 to only 33% in 1989 in spite of the
natural increase in population in excess of 30 per thousand ever since the early 1980-s. However, demographic growth of Albanian
population remained much below the level of the biological reproduction rate due to intensive emigration i.e., a negative migratory
balance ranging from 21.8 per thousand in 1961 to 26.5 per thousand in 1989. The causes for emigration were economic and, for
decades, bound toward Kosovo, Western Macedonia and the Valley of Skoplje. Emigration to Turkey began in late XIX century,
resumed during the Balkan Wars and was recorded again in the early 1980s (encouraged by the Balkan Treaty signed by the FPRY,
Greece and Turkey) but did not much affect total demographic movement of Albanians in the Sirini district. Economic emigration
of population to Switzerland and Germany has been growing from the 1960s onward.
This paper also reviews parallel existence and functioning of two crucially different homeostatic demographic systems - the Albanian
and the Serb - in the same compact geographic environment. The paper also points to the preserved awareness of a fixed (tribal)
affiliation and finally displays a detailed review of migratory dynamics and origins of Albanian population, number of houses
(families) and the number of members of each clan in 1989.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1998
godina XXXVI
Raievi, Boidar Brankica Gagi, Danijel Panti
SISTEM I POLITIKA POREZA I POPULACIONA POLITIKA
SYSTEM AND TAX POLICY AND POPULATION POLICY
81-104
K.r.: poreski sistem, fiskalna politika, populaciona politika
K.w.: tax system, fiscal policy, population policy
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Sisitem i politika poreza mogu da se koriste za realizaciju brojnih ciljeva. To je posebno sluaj sa savremenim poreskm sistemima
koji se, izmeu ostalog, baziraju i na sintetikom (globalnom) oporezivanju ekonomske snage fizikih lica. Pored osnovnog
fiskalnoig cilja oporezivanjem se mogu ostvarivati i brojni drugi ciljevi, a meu njima i ciljevi populacione politike. U radu se
analiziraju savremene tendencije u ostvarivanju populacinih ciljeva instrumentima i merama poreske politike. Pri tome su razmotrene
konkretne mogunosti ostvarivanja ciljeva populacione politike koje pruaju reenja kod sledeih poreskih oblika: poreza na dohodak
graana (fizikih lica), poreza na dobit preduzea, poreza na imovinu i poreza na promet. Naglaeno je da relativno brojne i
izdiferencirane mogunosti postoje kod godinjeg poreza na dohodak graana, a znatno manje kod ostalih navedenih poreskih oblika.
System and tax policy may be used for numerous purposes. That is, especially, the case with contemporary tax systems which are,
among other features, based at the synthetic (global) taxation of the economic capacity of the natural persons. Besides the basic,
fiscal, many other goals, may be reached through the taxation, including those which fall in the scope of the population policy. In this
paper, modern tendencies have been analyzed in achieving the goals of the population policy, which provide solutions in respect of
the following tax instruments: personal income tax, corporate income tax, property tax and turnover tax. It has been emphasized that
relatively numerous and differentiated possibilities exist in respect of the annual personal income tax and far less, with the other
forms of taxation.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1998
godina XXXVI
Milankovi, Jasna
SMRTNOST ODOJADI PREMA UZROCIMA SMRTI,
INFANT MORTALITY BY CAUSE OF DEATH
105-124
K.r.: mortalitet odojadi, semanatalni mortalitet, uzroci smrti, socijalna zatita, zdravstvena zatita
K.w.: infant mortality, semanatal mortality, causes of death, social protection, health protection
U naoj zemlji mortalitet odojadi predstavlja jo uvek krupan problem jer se njegov nivo zadrao, bar za evropske prilike, na
relativno visokom nivou. To ukazuje na potrebu za boljom preventivnom zatitom, posebno u odnosu na mortalitet odojadi i druge
nepovoljne ishode trudnoe, kao kljune indikatore zdravstvenog stanja i zdravstvene zatite majke i deteta. Naime, prouavanje
kretanja nivoa mortaliteta odojadi u zemljama niske smrtnosti pokazuje da se on moe relativno brzo sniziti, ako se preduzmu
odreene mere socijalne i zdravstvene zatite. Zbog toga je neophodno permanentno preduzimati usmerena istraivanja da bi se
objasnili i merili relativni uticaji pojedinih faktora ili grupe faktora u naoj zemlji koji su znaajni za smrtnost odojadi, kao i njihova
meusobna, uzajamna veza. Takoe treba koristiti iskustvo drugih zemalja koje su na tom putu ve odmakle. Jedan od elemenata
prevencije svakako je i analiza uzroka morbiditeta i mortaliteta odojadi, prvenstveno u perinatalnom periodu i to sa osnovnim ciljem
da se spoznaju najei uzroci smrti da bi se moglo uticati na njihovo otklanjanje, a time i na smanjenje smrtnosti odojadi.
Podaci o uzroku smrti prvenstveno odojadi, pored informacije o efektu rada zdravstvene slube, ukazuju i na mere koje treba
preduzimati, te u isto vreme slue kao baza za planiranje i programiranje razvoja zdravstva tj. za sprovoenje zdravstvene politike,
kao dela populacione politike.
Opadanjem mortaliteta odojadi u naoj zemlji dolo je i do promene u strukturi oboljenja kao najeih uzroka smrti. U poetku
perioda posmatranja, kada je i opti nivo mortaliteta odojadi bio izuzetno visok udeo infektivnih oboljenja i bolesti respiratornog
sistema bio je vrlo veliki. Ovi uzroci smrtnosti uglavnom su bili posledica egzogenih faktora tj. onih bolesti na koje je drutvo u
celini, a posebno zdravstvena sluba u najveoj meri mogla delovati, kako merama poboljanja optih uslova ivota, tako i merama
preventivne i kurativne zdravstvene zatite. Period 1989-1996. karakteriu endogeni uzroci mortaliteta odojadi koji prvenstveno
deluju u neonatalnom periodu, a vezani su za konstitucionalne karakteristike ivoroenih - kongenitalne anomalije, nedonesenost,
respiratorni distres i dr. Dakle, sa socio-medicinskog aspekta u ovom periodu deluju prvenstveno genetski uslovljeni uzroci
mortaliteta odojadi, zatim uzroci sa strane majke koji deluju na plod za vreme poroaja, a na koje savremeni ovek i savremena
medicina ne mogu ili pak u znatno manjoj meri mogu da utiu.
Analitika uestalosti umiranja odojadi po grupama uzroka smrti ukazuje na mogunosti koje jo postoje u pogledu eliminisanja
uzroka smrti egzogene prirode (jer se isti uzroci javljaju u socio-ekonomski najnerazvijenijim podrujima nae zemlje), ali izvesni
rezultati mogu se ipak postii i kod endogenog mortaliteta (boljom prenatalnom dijagnostikom i drugim merama zdravstvene zatite
trudnica i porodilja, potpunijim obuhvatom poroaja u zdravstvenim ustanovama, primenom savremenih mera za zatitu nedonesene
dece i dr.).
Semanatalni mortalitet verovatno kod nas predstavlja najvei socio-medicinski problem i to kako zbog toga to je procentualno
najvie zastupljen u neonatalnom mortalitetu, tako i iz razloga to pokazuje gotovo zanemarivu tendenciju opadanja. To opravdava
jo jedan zahtev - za irim i dubljim istraivanjima ovog problema, kao i da se u njegovo reavanje sem medicine ukljue i druge
naune discipline. Meu vodee uzroke semanatalnog mortaliteta u poslednjem periodu posmatranja u SR Jugoslaviji su na prvom
mestu nedonesenost, kongenitalne anomalije, sindrom respiratornog distresa i intrauterina hipoksija i poroajna asfiksija.
Infant mortality is still a major problem in our country as its level has remained relatively high by European standards. This points to
the need for better preventive measures particularly as regards infant mortality and other adverse consequences of pregnancy, as key
indicators of health and health care for mother and child. Namely, the analysis of movement in infant mortality in low mortality
countries shows that it can be decreased relatively easily if certain social and health care measures are undertaken. For that reason, it
is necessary to engage in permanent organized research to explain and measure both the relative impact of individual factors or
groups of factors in our country which are significant in terms of infant mortality and their mutual relationships. We should also try
to gain from the experiences of other countries which had already made progress in this respect. One of the elements of prevention is
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certainly the analysis of causes of infant morbidity and mortality primarily during the pre-natal period with the aim of specifying the
most frequent causes of death to enable their elimination and to induce a subsequent decline in infant mortality.
Besides showing the efficiency of health service activities, data on causes of infant death also point to the specific measures that
should be undertaken and may be used as a base for planning and programming the development of health services, i.e.
implementation of health policy as part of the population policy.
With the decline in infant mortality in our country there has also been registered a change in the composition of diseases as the most
frequent cause of death. During the initial observation period when the general level of infant mortality was exceptionally high, the
share of infectious diseases and those of the respiratory system was very large. These deaths were mainly induced by exogenous
factors, that is the diseases which the society in general and health services in particular could most easily have checked both by
measures to improve the general living conditions and by preventive and curative health care measures. The period from 1989 to
1996 is characterized by endogenous causes of infant mortality primarily during the neo-natal period and have to do with the
constitutional features of the live-born children, congenital anomalies, premature birth, respiratory distress, etc. Thus, from the
socio-medical point of view, the primary causes of infant mortality in this period are genetically induced, or can be attributed to the
mother in labour birth which modern men and modern medicine cannot influence to a larger extent.
The analysis of infant death frequency by group of causes of death points that there still exist possibilities of eliminating the
exogenous causes of death (as the same causes prevail in the socio-economically least developed regions of the country). Besides,
some improvement can also be expected in the area of endogenous mortality (improvement in pre-natal diagnostics and other
measures of health care for pregnant women and those who have just given birth) better conditions for child delivery and application
of modern techniques to care for the prematurely born children.
The semanatal mortality is probably the major socio-medical problem in our country both because it accounts for the highest
percentage in neo-natal mortality and because it displays an almost negligible downward tendency. This justifies another request - for
a more extensive and comprehensive analysis of this problem as well as for participation of other scientific disciplines besides
medicine. Among the leading causes of semanatal mortality in the most recent observation period are premature birth, congenital
anomalies, respiratory distress syndrome and intrauterine hypoxia and asphyxia at birth.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-2/1998
godina XXXVI
Kovaevi, Marko, Veljko erkovi, Duan Pokorni
PRAENJE ZARAZNIH BOLESTI NA PODRUJU BEOGRADA U PERIODU 1991-1996.
CONTAGIOUS DISEASES IN THE BELGRADE REGION IN THE PERIOD 1991-1996
125-144
K.r.: morbiditet, zarazne bolesti, Beograd
K.w.: morbidity, contagious diseases, Belgrade
U okrugu Beograd su podaci iz prijava obolelih od zaraznih bolesti za period od 1991. do 1996. godine, sadrani u
kompjuterizovanim bazama podataka i vodi ih Sluba za epidemiologiju Gradskog zavoda za zatitu zdravlja. Podaci se koriste za
operativne potrebe epidemioloke slube radi nadzora zaraznih bolesti na podruju okruga, analiziraju se u cilju sagledavanja
problema zaraznih bolesti u celini i svake od njih posebno, pri emu se prati distribucija bolesti po polu, starosti i optinama. U
peroidu 1991-1996. u stanovnitva Beograda nije bilo obolelih od osobito opasnih zaraznih bolesti. Najmanji broj obolelih je
registrovan u toku 1991. godine (14788), a najvie u toku 1994. (27368). U 1996. godini je broj obolelih bio za 33% vei nego u
1991. Meu najbrojnijim zaraznim bolestima su ovije boginje (njihov udeo se kree od 22,5% do 54,6%), zarazni proliv (od 7,4%
do 17,3%), salmoneloza (od 2,9% do 6,1%), angina (od 2,6% do 5,6%). Ove etiri bolesti su u posmatranom periodu pojavljuju meu
10 najeih zaraznih bolesti. U toku 1993. godine su se meu nejee zarazne bolesti uvrstile male boginje, koje su se pojavile u
epidemijskom obliku. Obolelo je 3524 stanovnika Beograda (44,7% deca mlaa od 14 godina i 32% omladina starosti 15-19 godina).
Uzroci epidemije su prekid redovne vakcinacije dece protiv malih boginja usled nedostatka uvozne vakcine i migracija stanovnitva.
Iste godine se u epidemijskom obliku pojavila crvenka. Epidemija se protegla na 1994. i na 1995. godinu. Distribucija obolelih po
polu kretala se od 51,0% do 52,9% za muki i od 47,1% do 49,0% za enski. Najvei broj obolelih je u grupama starosti 5-9 i 0-4
godina, a najmanji u najstarijih stanovnika. Najmlae stanovnitvo najee je obolevalo od ovijih boginja (od 35,6% ukupnog
broja obolelih u tim starosnim grupama do 69,4%), zaraznog proliva (od 4,5% do 17,5%), salmoneloze (od 3,1% do 7,4%), angine
(od 3,4% do 9,7%, i arlaha (od 3,1% do 7,3%). U posmatranom periodu je registrovano 69 umrlih od zaraznih bolesti. Mortalitet od
zaraznih bolesti je imao najmanju vrednost u 1992. i 1993. godini (3,1 i 3,4 na milion), postepeno je rastao i dostigao je najveu
vrednost u 1996. godini (12,6 na milion). Najvei broj obolelih bio je prijavljivan u optinama Novi Beograd, Zemun i ukarica.
Data from records on population affected by contagious diseases in the period from 1991 to 1996 are entered in the computer data
base and are managed by the Epidemiology corps of the City Public Health Institute. These data are used to serve the operative needs
of the epidemiological corps in order to control contagious diseases within the district. They are analyzed to obtain an insight into the
problem of contagious diseases in general, and each individual disease in particular, while monitoring the distribution of diseases by
gender, age and commune. In the period from 1991 to 1996 no person in Belgrade was down with a particularly dangerous
contagious disease. The lowest number of the diseased was registered in 1991 (14788) and the highest in 1994 (27368). In 1996, the
number of the diseased was higher by 33% than in 1991. Among the most widely spread contagious diseases was chicken pox (its
share ranging from 22.5% to 54.6%), contagious diarrhea (from 7.4% to 17.3%), salmonellosis (from 2.9% to 6.1%), angina (from
2.6 to 5.6%). In the period reviewed, the above four diseases were among the ten most frequently incurred contagious diseases. In
the course of 1993, measles fell within the group of ten and acquired epidemic proportions. The disease affected 3524 inhabitants of
Belgrade (44.7% children below 14 years of age and 32% young people from 15 to 19 years of age). The epidemic was caused by the
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discontinuation of regular vaccination of children against measles caused by the shortage of imported vaccination and by population
migration. In the same year, the epidemic of rubella also broke out. The epidemic extended to 1994 and 1995. A breakdown of the
diseased by gender ranged from 51.0% to 52.9% for males and from 47.1% to 49.0% for females. Majority of the diseased were in
the 5-9 and 1-4 years age groups while the least number of the diseased were among the aged. The youngest population was most
frequently affected by chicken pox (from 35.6% to 69.4% of the overall number of those stricken by the disease), contagious
diarrhea (from 4.5% to 17.5%), salmonellosis (from 3.1% to 7.4%), angina (from 3.4% to 9.7%, and scarlet fever (from 3.1% to
7.3%). During the period reviewed, 69 people died from contagious diseases. Mortality from contagious diseases was lowest in
1992 and 1993 (3.1 and 3.4 per 1000000). It gradually rose to reach the highest value in 1996 (12.6% per 1000000). The largest
number of people affected was reported in the communes of Novi Beograd, Zemun and ukarica.
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-2/1998
godina XXXVI
Raevi, Mirjana
OSVRT NA PROGRAM PLANIRANJA PORODICE
145-153
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-2/1998
godina XXXVI
Stevanovi, Radoslav
PETI GERONTOLOKI KONGRES JUGOSLAVIJE VRNJAKA BANJA, 26-30. APRIL 1998.
153-160
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1998
godina XXXVI
Mulina, Tripo
MILO MACURA "IZABRANI RADOVI I - III"
161-168
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-2/1998
godina XXXVI
Blagojevi, Marina
ZBORNIK SANU "OSNOVI POPULACIONE POLITIKE: CILJEVI, INSTITUCIJE, MERE"
168-174
asopis Stanovnitvo
statistiki prilog
broj 1-2/1998
godina XXXVI
NASELJA U SR JUGOSLAVIJI PREMA TIPU I BROJU STANOVNIKA, POPIS 1991.
175-182
***************************************************************************
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/98
godina XXXVI
Kotzamanis, Byron, Jean-Paul Sardon
LE VIEILLISSEMENT DES POPULATIONS EUROPENNES ET SES FACTEURS. L'EXEMPLE DE LA
FRANCE ET DE LA GRCE
STARENJE EVROPSKIH POPULACIJA I NJEGOVI INIOCI. PRIMER FRANCUSKE I GRKE
AGEING OF THE EUROPEAN POPULATIONS AND ITS CAUSES. THE CASE OF FRANCE AND GREECE
7-41
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M.c.: viellissement demographique, fcondit, mortalit, population stable, France, Grce

K.r.: demografsko starenje, fertilitet, mortalitet, stabilno stanovnitvo, Francuska, Grka
K.w.: demographic ageing, fertility, mortality, stable population, France, Greece
Les dmographes ont dmontr depuis longtemps, et souvent contre le sens commun, que le vieillissement des populations des pays
industrialiss, c'est--dire l'accrois-sement de la proportion des personnes ges et son corollaire la diminution de la part des plus
jeunes, a t et est toujours provoqu par la baisse de la natalit et non par l'augmentation de l'esprance de vie. Toutefois, depuis
quelques dcennies, le vieillissement de la pyramide par sa base, s'accompagne d'un vieillissement par le sommet. L'acclration
actuelle de l'augmentation des personnes ges est, en effet, provoque par les progrs faits dans la lutte pour le recul de la mortalit.
En effet, alors que jusqu' une poque relativement rcente les progrs en matire de lutte contre les maladies et l'amlioration de la
sant bnficiaient avant tout aux plus jeunes, ce qui permettait une augmentation relative de la part des jeunes, le niveau de mortalit
des enfants se situe aujourd'hui un niveau si bas qu'il ne permet pas d'esprer des gains sensibles. Les gains actuels portent donc
essentiellement sur les personnes ges.
Ainsi trois facteurs jouent ensemble pour dterminer le nombre et/ou la part d'une population d'un ge donn: la fcondit, la
mortalit et les migrations internationales. Mais il ne faut pas oublier que ces facteurs s'appliquent une population qui a une
structure par ge particulire, hritire (rsultante) des volutions passes de ces trois phnomnes.
Dans cet article on se propose de dgager dans un premier temps, en prenant comme exemples deux pays europens, la France et la
Grce (pays entrant dans le processus de la transition dmographique des priodes forts diffrentes et pousant en plus des rythmes
forts diffrencis), les effets des modifications de chacun de ces facteurs au cours de la priode d'aprs-guerre et par consquent
dcomposer la variation de l'effectif des personnes ges en diffrentes parts, dues chacun des facteurs voqus. Dans un second
temps on value le rle de la structure hrite au dbut de la priode d'observation dans les deux pays en question. Enfin nous
montrerons galement quels chos entraneront dans le futur les volutions intervenues au cours de la priode d'observation.
Pour atteindre notre premier objectif il faut procder des simulations. Dans les trois cas de figure qui vont suivre on dduira en
premier lieu les effets de chaque paramtre en adoptant une ou plusieures hypothses de stabilit concernant ce mme paramtre, tout
en laissant jouer les deux autres.
En ce qui concerne notre deuxime objectif (mesurer l'hritage des volutions passes) ctd des structures de nos populations, il faut
rappeler que dans chacune des simulations que nous avons entrepris nous sommes toujours partis de la population observe au 1er
janvier (1950 pour la France et 1950 ou 1961 - selon le cas - pour la Grce) et nous avons retenu un certain jeu d'hypothses sur les
trois paramtres qui font varier la population - et par consquent sa structure par ge - De la sorte ces simulations traduisent les
dformations que font subir, la structure par ge de 1950, ou 1961 selon le cas, le jeu d'hypothse retenu. Il apparat ainsi que la
structure initiale est un lment capital dans l'volution d'une population. Cette structure par ge qui synthtise un sicle d'volution
de fcondit, migration et mortalit, cr une inertie forte dont les effets peuvent se faire ressentir longtemps. C'est ainsi que des
dformations de la pyramide conscutives des traumatismes, comme les deux guerres mondiales, ou des relvements rapides de la
fcondit, comme le baby-boom (pour la France), peuvent engendrer des chos chelle d'au moins une gnration.
Pour atteindre notre deuxime objectif (mettre en vidence ce rle de la structure initiale sur les caractristiques du vieillissement en
France, comme en Grce), il convient de refaire les mmes simulations avec une autre structure de dpart et de comparer les
indicateurs de vieillissement obtenu l'issu du mme processus de simulation en partant de deux populations initiales diffrentes.
Pour mettre en vidence ce rle de la structure initiale sur les caractristiques du vieillissement en France, comme en Grce, on
procdera aux mmes simulations avec une autre structure de dpart et on comparera les indicateurs de vieillissement obtenu l'issu
du mme processus de simulation en partant de deux populations initiales diffrentes. La comparaison avec la situation observe
montre que, quel que soit le pays, le vieillissement actuel est moins prononc que si, en dbut de priode la population avait t
stationnaire. La structure de la population tait plus jeune que celle associe la table de mortalit qui prvalait l'poque. Cela est
beaucoup plus net pour la Grce que pour la France o la situation actuelle serait, somme toute, relativement proche si l'on
intervertissait les populations de dpart.
Demografi su davno pokazali da je, suprotno optem miljenju, starenje stanovnitva razvijenih zemalja, tj. poveanje udela starih i
njemu korelirajue (odgovarajue) smanjenje udela mladih, bilo je, i jo uvek jeste, izazvano padom nataliteta, a ne produenjem
oekivanog trajanja ivota. Ipak, ve nekoliko decenija, starenje od baze starosne piramide je praeno starenjem s vrha. Sadanje
ubrzanje poveanja broja starih je rezultat napretka u borbi za sniavanje mortaliteta. U stvari, dok su se do pre relativno kratkog
vremena progres u borbi protiv bolesti i poboljanje zdravstevnog stanja odnosili pre svega na mlade, to je omoguavalo poveanje
njihovog udela u ukupnom stanovnitvu, sada je smrtnost dece na tako niskom nivou da se ne mogu oekivati znatnija poboljanja.
Aktuelna poboljanja u tom domenu se tiu prvenstveno starih.
Tri faktora zajedniki determiniu broj i (ili) udeo stanovnitva odredjene starosti: fertilitet, mortalitet i spoljne migracije. Ali ne
treba zaboraviti da se ti faktori tiu stanovnitva sa konkretnom starosnom strukturom koja je sa svoje strane rezultat dotadanjih
promena spomenutih determinirajuih inilaca.
U radu su najpre ispitane posledice promena svakog od spomenuta tri faktora koje su se desile u periodu posle Drugog svetskog rata.
Za primer su uzete dve evropske zemlje: Francuska i Grka, zemlje u kojima je demografska tranzicija otpoela u razliito vreme i
koja se kasnije odvijala bitno drugaijim intenzitetom. U nastavku je za obe zemlje procenjena uloga nasledjene starosne strukture s
poetka perioda posmatranja. Najzad, u radu je ukazano na budue posledice dosadanjih trendova spomenutih faktora starenja
stanovnitva.
Uticaji fertiliteta, mortaliteta i migracija su odredjeni na osnovu primene simulacionih metoda. U simulacijama je jedan faktor
posmatran kao konstantan tokom itavog posmatranog perioda (na nivou s poetka perioda), uz istovremenu varijabilnost preostala
dva. Uticaj nasledjene starosne strukture na aktuelni proces starenja utvrdjen je primenom istih simulacija, ali sa razliitim polaznim
starosnim strukturama (polo se od stabilnih populacija izradjenih na osnovu tablica smrtnosti 1950. za Francusku, odnosno, 1960. za
Grku). Na osnovu rezultata simulacija se moe zakljuiti da je inicijalna starosna struktura vrlo vaan element razvitka stanovnitva.
Ona predstavlja sintezu evolucije fertiliteta, mortaliteta i migracija u prethodnih sto godina, i kao takva stvara snanu inerciju iji se
efekti mogu dugo oseati. Takodje, deformacije u starosnoj piramidi izazvane vanrednim dogadjajima, kao to su bili Prvi i Drugi
svetski rat ili naglo poveanje fertiliteta, kao na primer baby-boom u Francuskoj, mogu izazvati demografski eho koji e se oseati
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barem u jednoj generaciji.

Osnovni rezultati simulacija omoguavaju da se sagleda specifina teina promena mortaliteta na odvijanje procesa starenja (starenje
s vrha starosne piramide), uporedo sa ve dobro poznatom ulogom pada fertiliteta (starenje od baze). S druge strane, uticaj migracija
je ogranien, a njihov uticaj je u posmatranim zemljama bio suprotnog smera - lagano je ubrzavao starenje u Grkoj, a lagano
usporavao u Francuskoj. U isto vreme demografsko starenje je ranih 1990-ih u obe zemlje bilo usporenije nego to bi se odvijalo da
se radilo o stabilnim populacijama.
Najzad, u Francuskoj kao i u Grkoj, neizbeno je ubrzanje procesa starenja ak i u odsustvu znaajnijih promena fertiliteta. Naime,
oekuje se da e mortalitet ubudue imati znaajniju ulogu u starenju, s obzirom da e produenje oekivanog trajanja ivota pri
ivorodjenju u sve veoj meri biti rezulatat produenja ivota stanovnitva starijeg od 60 godina.
Demographic ageing (continuous increase of the percentage of old people of a population) depends on the evolutions of fertility,
mortality and migration as well as on the age structure of the population which reflects the changes of lthe three above mentioned
components in the remote past.
In this article we examine the consequences of each of the three demographic components on demographic ageing in two european
countries (France and Greece); two countries significantly differentiated as far as their trajectory is concerned during the last two
centuries.
From the viewpoint of methodology, in order to evaluate these consequences we adopted the simulation method and more
specifically, each time we kept one of the three components stable for the level it is characterized at the beginning of the study period
and we estimated the amount and the percentage ofl the over-sixty-year old persons which we would have in this case in te early
1990's (amount and percentage we compared to the corresponding ones estimated around 1993). At the same time we tried to
estimate the specific weight of the early structures of population in the two countries on the basis of today's demographic ageing:
thus, we proceeded to identical simulatiions with different population structures at the starting point (stable populations
corresponding to the tables on mortality for 1950 in France and 1960 in Greece).
The basic conclusions of this study allow us to see the significant specific weight of the mortality change on demographic ageing
(ageing from above), parallel to the already known role of fertility (ageing from the basis of the pyramid). On the contrary, the role of
migration currents appears limited and their influence has the opposite direction in these two countries of study; slight acceleration of
ageing in Greece, slight slowing down in France. At the same time, demographic ageing in the early 1990's in both countries is
smoother than that expected if their populations were stable.
Finally, in France as well as in Greece the acceleration of ageing is inevitable as significant changes in fertility are absent. Mortality
is expected to play a more and more significant role in the mid and remote future to such an extent that the prolongation of the
expected life at birth will be more and more due to gains of life for the over-sixty-year-old persons.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/98
godina XXXVI
Penev, Goran
TRENDOVI DEMOGRAFSKOG STARENJA I FEMINIZACIJE STARIH U SRBIJI
TRENDS OF DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING AND FEMINAZITION OF AGED POPULATION IN SERBIA
43-60
K.r.: demografsko starenje, stari, feminizacija, Srbija
K.w.: demographic ageing, aged population, feminazition, Serbia
Proces demografskog starenja predstavlja jednu od najznaajnijih osobenosti posleratnog razvitka stanovnitva Srbije. Prema
rezultatima popisa iz 1991. broj starih 60 ili vie godina dostigao je preko 1,5 mil. lica (16,0% ukupnog stanovnitva). Kao vanija
karakteristika tog procesa izdvaja se i odvijanje starenja starih, pod kojim se pre svega podrazumeva poveanje udela tzv. starakog
kontingenta, stari 80 ili vie godina u ukupnom starom stanovnitvu (60+). 1948. godina 7,9% starih je bilo starije od 80 godina, a
1991. njihov udeo je povean na 11,2%. Na intenzitet procesa ukazuje i podatak da je obim starakog kontingenta gotovo
uetvorostruen (sa 56 hiljada na 174 hiljade).
Naglaene nepravilnosti u starosnom sastavu (izraena udubljenja i ispupenja na starosnoj piramidi), ali i bioloka realnost uslovili
su da kontingent starih predstavlja ekstremno flotantnu populaciju. 1991. godine dve treine starih (64,2%) predstavljaju lica iz tzv.
ulazeih generacija (stari 60-69), dok iz kontingenta starih lica iz 1981. godine ni polovina (48,1%) nije doivela sledei popis iz
1991. Ta pojava je izraenija kod mukaraca, a posebno u Centralnoj Srbiji i Vojvodini.
Kod starih izrazitu brojanu dominaciju imaju ene (1991. stopa feminiteta je iznosila 1275), a sa starou raste i njihov udeo (u
grupi 80+ stopa feminiteta je 1463). Vea smrtnost mukih (po starosti) je osnovni inilac procesa feminizacije starih.
U narednom periodu e doi do daljeg intenziviranja kako procesa starenja tako i procesa starenja starih. Prema projekcijama do
2021. godine, u Srbiji broj starih bi se poveao za preko 800 hiljada (predstavljali bi 22,5% ukupnog stanovnitva). Jo bre bi se
odvijao proces starenja starih - broj starih 80+ bi se vie nego udvostruio (sa 174 hiljade na 368 hiljade), a njihov udeo u ukupnom
starom stanovnitvu bi dostigao 15,3%.
The ageing of the aged represents one of the main features of the demographic ageing in Serbia during the post-war period. The main
indicator of this process is the increase in the share of persons aged 80 and over in total old age population (60+).
The author analyzes the dynamics of the elderly population (80+) in the period from 1948-1991 with a special emphasis on the
composition by sex. An emphasis is also placed on the regional differences in the process of the demographic ageing of the aged.
Accoding to the population projections of Serbia until 2021, it would be realistic to expect an intensive aging of the old - the number
of persons aged 80 and over could more than double (from 174 thousand to 368 thousand) and their share in the total could reach
15,3%.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/98
godina XXXVI
Martel, Laurent, Alain Parant
STARENJE BIRAKOG TELA KVEBEKA
AGEING OF THE ELECTORATE IN QUEBEC
61-72
K.r.: demografsko starenje, birako telo, projekcije stanovnitva, Kvebek, Kanada
K.w.: demographic ageing, electorate, population projections, Quebec, Canada
Demografsko starenje ima mnoge posledice, a jedna, esto zaboravljena, je i starenje birakog tela. U lanku su opisani dosadanji i
budui trendovi u kretanju birakog kontingenta Kvebeka, a ukazano je i na neke mogue posledice takvih kretanja za budui razvoj
drutva.
Stanovnitvo kanadske provincije Kvebek, koje je jo uvek relatino mlado, e poeti intenzivno da stari posle 2011. godine zbog
ulaska baby-boom generacija u grupu starih 65 ili vie godina. Prema najnovijim projekcijama Statistikog biroa Kvebeka, u 2041.
godini stari e predstavljati izmedju 25 i 30% ukupnog stanovnitva. Istovremeno e procesu starenja biti izloeno i potencijalno
birako telo - od sadanjih 16%, stari e u 2041. godini predstavljati 30 do 35% birakog kontingenta. 1951. godine je na 100
stanovnika mladih 18-34 godine bilo 21 lice starije od 65 godina. 1996. godine vrednost tog indeksa starenja je vie nego
udvostruena. 2041. godine indeks starenja birakog tela bi se, u zavisnosti od varijante projekcija, kretao izmedju 123 i 168.
Neizbeno starenje birakog kontingenta e izazvati mnoge posledica, posebno u domenu dravne politike. Izbori po veinskom
principu podstiu politike partije da svoje politike platforme uskladjuju interesima prosenog biraa. U tom smislu, ubudue se
moe oekivati preorijentacija drutvenih prioriteta u korist starih. Budui stari gradjani e biti bolje obrazovani, boljeg finansijskog
stanja i boljeg zdravlja i na taj nain u mogunosti da bolje organizuju zaitu svojih interesa.
Uspostavljajui paralelu izmedju individulanog i demografskog starenja, mnogi bi mogli da pomisle kako pojava tzv. sive sile vodi
ka stvaranju jednog konzervativnog drutva, koje se odlikuje odsustvom elje za inovacijama, to se, kao karakteristino ponaanje,
esto pripisuje starima. Medjutim, danas se zna da ljudi stare kao to su i ranije iveli, zadravajui svoje ponaanje i miljenje, ak i
ono politiko. Takva hipoteza navodi da bi starenje stanovnitva moglo da ohrabri pritiske u prilog nezavisnosti Kvebeka, a ne da ih
smanji. Tako bi 2031. godine udruivanjem glasova tzv. baby-boom generacije, starije ali i dalje verne opredeljenjima iz mladosti, i
mladih koji su uglavnom privreni independetistikoj opciji, moglo da se oekuje referendumsko "da" za nezavistan Kvebek.
Eventualno dejstvo efekta odlaganja ili, pak, nestabilnost koja karakterie politiko ponaanje generacija ograniava znaaj takve
analize.
Population ageing has many consequences on society; one of them is the ageing of the electorate. The purpose of this article is to
describe the past and future evolution of the electorate in Quebec as well as some of its consequences.
Still today one of the youngest province in Canada, Quebec will be ageing rapidly from 2011 because of the arrival of the babyboomers at age 65. According to the most recent projections of the Bureau de la Statistique du Quebec, 25 to 30% of the population
will be aged 65 or over in 2041, so at least one person out of four. The electorate will aged accordingly: from 16% today, the elderly
will represent between 30 and 35% of the population aged 18 or over in 2041. In 1951, there was 21 persons aged 65 or over for 100
aged 18 to 34. In 1996, this ratio was more than the double. In 2041, it could be 123 or even 168 depending on the scenario.
The ageing of the electorate will have many consequences, in particular on States policies. The election on a majority basis in use in
Quebec incites the political partis to design their platform in accordance with the interest of the median voter. Therefore, we can
expect a reorientation of the social choices in favour of the elderly in the near future. Better educated, in better health and wealthiest,
future senior citizens will probably be able to get better organised to defend their interest on the political scene.
The linkage between individual and collective ageing bring certain observers to think that their ageing of the electorate will lead to a
conservative society dominated by the absence of innovation, an attitude typically associated to the elderly. We know that the
individuals tend to behave consistently, to keep their political opinions as they get older. This second hypothesis suggests that
population ageing might encourage the pressure in favor of the independence of Quebec and not refrain it. In 2031, the vote of the
baby-boomers, older but faithful to their convictions, combined with the one of the younger generations, favourably disposed to
sovereignty, could lead to a "yes" in a referendum. The instability that caracterizes political behaviour as well as eventual period
effects limit the significance of our analysis.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/98
godina XXXVI
Raevi, Mirjana, Mina Petrovi
STAVOVI I PONAANJE ENA NA KOSOVU I METOHIJI RELEVANTNI ZA POPULACIONU POLITIKU
ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIOR OF WOMEN IN KOSOVO AND METOHIJA RELEVANT FOR THE
POPULATION POLICY
73-88
K.r.: population policy, Kosovo and Metohija
K.r.: population policy, Kosovo and Metohija
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Potreba za dubinskim istraivanjima fenomena radjanja na Kosovu i Metohiji proizilazi iz injenice da se raspoloiva znanja
zasnivaju gotovo iskljuivo na podacima popisa stanovnitva (poslednji put izvren za celo podruje pokrajine 1981. godine), vitalnoj
statistici (pouzdani podaci su raspoloivi zakljuno sa 1989. godinom) i dvema reprezentativnim anketama (sprovedenim 1970. i
1976. godine). ira znanja o fertilitetu i reprodukciji stanovnitva su neophodna za formulisanje mera populacione politike, za kojom
ve due vremena postoji objektivna potreba.
Februara 1998. godine je sprovedeno probno anketno istraivanje na uzorku od 116 ena koje su se porodile u tri tipa porodilita na
Kosovu i Metohiji. I pored metodolokih ogranienja uzorka u pogledu veliine i naina izbora posmatranih jedinica dobijena je
zadovoljavajua struktura osnovnih socijalnih i demografskih obeleja ispitanica na osnovu poredjenja sa podacima vitalne statistike
za 1989. i 1994. godinu. U ovom radu razmatrani su stavovi i ponaanje ena relevantni za populacionu politiku, jer omoguavaju
procenu elemenata njene receptorne osnove odnosno dinamike u primeni pojedinih mera saglasno stepenu razvijenosti potreba ena u
reproduktivnom ponaanju konkretne populacije.
Analiza rezultata ukazuje na dominaciju, ali i proces transformacije tradicionalnog reproduktivnog ponaanja i poloaja ene. Na
nivou vrednosnih stavova i poeljnih situacija primetan je vei nivo modifikacije i cepanja tradicionalnih okvira. Medjutim, ak, i u
domenu vrednosnih sudova mogu se uoiti razlike u stepenu otvorenosti ka promeni, koji je znatno izraeniji u stavovima optijeg
karaktera no u stavovima koji se tiu elemenata bliskih ivotnom iskustvu ispitanica. To, naravno, uslovljava i odredjeni stepen
nekonzistetnosti i ambivalentnosti u iskazima ispitanica posve karakteristinog za tranzicione situacije, koji se neminovno odraava i
na protivrenosti u domenu ponaanja.
Ipak, niz nalaza ukazuje na formiranje pozitivne receptorne osnove kao bitnog elementa populacione klime za sprovodjenje programa
planiranja porodice kao i pravce mera populacione politike. To bi, s jedne strane olakalo realizaciju ve formiranih potreba a sa
druge strane, posebno prateim edukativnim sadrajima, ubrzalo proces njihove transformacije u oblasti reproduktivnog ponaanja i
poloaja ene. Drugim reima, saglasno utvrdjenom stepenu razvijenosti potreba ispitanica najurgentnije se postavlja zahtev za
sprovodjenjem programa za planiranje porodice koji bi uslovio i bru transformaciju ekonomske i psiholoke cene roditeljstva kao
drutvene uloge ene, otvarajui znaaj ostalih mera populacione politike.
A need for extensive investigation of the phenomenon of births in Kosovo and Metohija arises from the fact that our knowledge is
almost exclusively based on the population census data (the last census for the whole territory of the province was taken in 1981),
vital statistics (reliable data are available for years up to 1989) and two representative surveys (conducted in 1970 and 1976). A more
comprehensive insight into fertility and population reproduction is needed in order to formulate population policy measures for
which there has been an abject need for some time already.
In February 1998, a pilot survey was conducted on the sample of 116 women who had given birth in three different types of
maternity wards in Kosovo and Metohija. Despite methodological limitations with regard to the size and manner of the sample
selection, its composition was satisfactory in terms of basic social and demographic characteristics as shown by the comparison with
vital statistics for 1989 and 1994. This paper discusses behavior and attitudes expressed by women which are of relevance to the
population policy. This should enable an assessment of the elements of receptiveness or its dynamics following application of
measures that take into account the needs of women in terms of reproductive behavior of a certain population.
The analysis of the results points to both the dominant role and a process of transformation in the traditional reproductive behavior
and attitudes of women. In terms of value standards and desired situations, a higher level of modification and dissolution of
traditional barriers may be observed. However, even in the domain of standards of social value, differences may be observed with
regard to the degree of openness to change, which is much more intense in terms of general attitudes than in those closely affecting
the lives of those surveyed. This naturally causes certain inconsistencies and the ambivalence in statements given by the women
surveyed, which is very characteristic of transitional stage and also inevitably reflects contradictions in behavior.
However, numerous findings point to the formation of positive receptiveness, which is an essential element of the population climate
needed for implementation of the family planning programs as well as for designing the population policy measures. On one hand,
this would facilitate the satisfaction of current needs and, on the other, especially through further education, accelerate the process of
their transformation in the domain of reproductive behavior and the place of women in society. In other words, as shown by the level
of development of needs of the women surveyed, implementation of the family planning program is most urgently required in order
to speed up transformation of the economic and psychological cost of parenthood as a social role of women.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 3-4/98
godina XXXVI
Stevanovi, Radoslav, Branislav Stojanovi
NIVO URBANIZOVANOSTI DEMOGRAFSKIH REONA SRBIJE
LEVEL OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT OF DEMOGRAPHIC AREAS IN SERBIA
89-114
K.r.: shema, urbanizacija, reoni, gradovi, regionalizacija
K.w.: urbanization, areas, cities, regionalization
Glavni cilj ove analize bio je utvrdjivanje, prvenstveno demografskih, efekata procesa urbanizacije (merenih ostvarenim nivoom
koncentracije stanovnitva u, formalno, gradskim naseljima) na regionalnu podelu prostora Srbije izvrenu, pre vie od tri decenije,
shemom stalnih reona za demografska istraivanja. Paralelno, cilj istraivanja je bio, relativno egzaktno, utvrditi u kojoj meri ova
shema moe predstavljati osnov za demogeografsku regionalizaciju teritorije Republike. Ovom, dvostepenom shemom, podruje
Srbije podeljeno je na 30 reona (regiona) prvog (I) i 7 reona (regiona) drugog (II) stepena, i to kombinacijom nekih, uglavnom
modifikovanih, geografskih kriterijuma, zatim, u potpunosti primenjenih, formalnih i strogo selekcionisanih izrazito demografskih
kriterijuma, ali ne ukljuujui one koji imaju prostorno-demografski karakter (kao to su gustine, migraciona obeleja, urbanizacija).
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Demografski efekti procesa urbanizacije (kao izrazito demogeografskog parametra) na ovu regionalnu podelu istraivani su samo do
nivoa reona prvog stepena i nisu posmatrani i ocenjivani po niim, subregionalnim, prostornim jedinicama-optinama. Analizirane su
promene u periodu 1971-1991. godine, koji je ocenjen kao dovoljno reprezentativan za ovaj proces.
Na osnovu rezultata istraivanja zakljueno je da:
- veina stalnih reona za demografska istraivanja bez obzira na izraene demografske efekte procesa urbanizacije, zadrala je,
uglavnom, relativno visok stepen homogenosti, tako da je ova regionalna podela Srbije, uz neke neophodne modifikacije, i dalje
aktuelna,
- bi modifikacije sheme, determinisane demografskim efektima procesa urbanizacije, bile uglavnom usmerene na neke
(intraregionalne) izmene u onim reonima u ijem su sastavu najvee urbane aglomeracije Srbije, koje kao velike populacione
koncentracije formiraju novu prostorno-demografsku strukturu tih reona (regiona),
- bi modifikovana shema (prilagodjena aktuelnoj demografskoj situaciji i strukturi prostora) predstavljala dobar osnov za
demogeografsku regionalizaciju Republike Srbije.
The main aim of this analysis was to determine the demographic effects of the process of urbanization (as measured by the level of
population concentration in, formally speaking, urban settlements) on the regional division of Serbia, made more than three decades
ago, into standard zones for demographic research. Likewise, the aim of the investigation was to determine, as accurately as possible,
the extent to which this scheme of regional division could be used as a basis for demographic regionalization of the territory of the
Republic. This two-tier scheme devides the area of Serbia into thirty I-tier (I) zones (regions) and seven II-tier zones (regions) by
combining some, usually modified, geographic criteria and fully applying, the carefully selected strictly demographic criteria, but not
applying those of the spatial-demographic character (like densities, migratory features, urbanization).
Demographic effects of the process of urbanization (as a strictly demographic parameter) on this regional division were investigated
only in terms of the I-tier zones and not at lower, subregional, spatial units - municipalities. The changes were analyzed for the period
from 1971 to 1991 only, which was estimated as representative enough for this process.
Based on the investigation results, the following was concluded:
- despite strong demographic effects of the process of urbanization, most standard zones for demographic research have managed to
keep the relatively high degree of homogenity, which makes the current regional division of Serbia quite acceptable with some slight
modifications;
- modifications of this scheme, as determined by the demographic effects of the process of urbanization, would mostly go into the
direction of intra-regional changes in regions to which the major urban agglomerations of Serbia belong because, as large
concentartions of population, they form a new spatial demographic structure of these zones (regions);
- the modified scheme (adjusted to the actual demographic state and the structure of the zones) would represent a proper base for
demographic regionalization of the Republic of Serbia.
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 3-4/98
godina XXXVI
Grignon, Michel, Sophie Pennec
RGIMES DMOGRAPHIQUES ET PRISE EN CHARGE DE L'INCAPACIT FONCTIONNELLE DES
PERSONNES GES
115-126
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/98
godina XXXVI
Bobi, Mirjana
CHRISTOPHER PRINZ: "COHABITING, MARRIED, OR SINGLE"
127-134
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/98
godina XXXVI
Raduki, Nada
JEAN-NOL BIRABEN, JACQUELINE HECHT, JACQUES HOUDALILLE (eds.) "POPULATION POPULATION ET HISTOIRE"
134-141
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 3-4/98
godina XXXVI
Risti, Vladimir
GORDANA MATKOVI (ur.) "IZVETAJ O HUMANOM RAZVOJU JUGOSLAVIJA 1997. GODINE - HUMAN
DEVELOPMENT REPORT YUGOSLAVIA 1997"
141-148
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1999
godina XXXVII
OSNOVNE TENDENCIJE U DEMOGRAFSKOM RAZVITKU SEOSKOG STANOVNITVA I NEKI PROBLEMI
NJEGOVE REVITALIZACIJE
BASIC TENDENCIES IN DEMOGRAFIC DEVELOPMENT OF RURAL POPULATION AND REVITALIZATION
- RELATED ISSUES
9-24
K.r.: seosko stanovnitvo, depopulacija, deagrarizacija
K.w.: rural population, depopulation, desagrarization
U selu i poljoprivredi tokom itavog perioda posle Drugog svetskog rata odvijali su se sloeni i protivreni procesi iji su krajnji
rezultati manifestovani populaciono opustoenim selom i dugotrajnom krizom u poljoprivredi. Masivni prerazmetaj ljudi i aktivnosti
na relaciji selo-grad, odnosno poljoprivreda-nepoljoprivredne delatnosti imao je niz konkretnih negativnih demografskih,
sociolokih, kulturnih, ekonomskih pa i politikih posledica. Sve osnovne tendencije seoskog stanovnitva Jugoslavije (sem na
Kosovu i Metohiji) su nepovoljne, i kao takve uticale su na slabljenje ukupnog demografskog razvitka, a s obzirom na karakter
njihove uslovljenosti opravdane su pretpostavke o njihovom daljem nepovoljnom delovanju. Osim toga gubici izazvani iseljavanjem
seoskog stanovnitva nametnuli su ozbiljan demografski problem, koji jo vie dobija na teini jer se due vreme odvija u uslovima
nedovoljnog radjanja i otvorene depopulacije. Zbog toga je kraj XX veka, karakteristian po negativnom predznaku prirodne (sem na
Kosovu i Metohiji) i migracione komponente, predstavlja vreme najveih demografskih poremeaja koji su po posledicama veoma
destruktivni dovodei u pitanje i budunos itave nae zajednice.
The end-result of the complex and contradictory processes taking place in the village and agriculture throughout the period since the
Second World War is depopulation and persistent crisis in agriculture. Mass relocation of rural population to cities and transition
from agricultural to non-agricultural activities has had a series of negative demographic, sociological, cultural, economic and even
political consequences. Note that all basic tendencies observed in rural population of Serbia (except in Kosovo and Metohia) are
unfavorable. They have weakened the overall demographic development, and are reasonably expected to persist. The seriousness of
the demographic problem caused by relocation of rural population is aggravated by many years of insufficient child bearing and open
depopulation. Hence, a negative growth in natural (except in Kosovo and Metohia) and migration components makes the turn of the
century the time of major demographic disturbances with potentially destructive consequences, and eventually jeopardizing our
community in general.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1999
godina XXXVII
Stevanovi, Radoslav
SEOSKA NASELJA JUGOSLAVIJE: BROJ, PROSTORNI RAZMETAJ I STRUKTURA PREMA
DEMOGRAFSKOJ VELIINI
RURAL SETTLEMENTS IN YUGOSLAVIA: THEIR NUMBER, SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION AND STRUCTURE
BY DEMOGRAPHIC SIZE
25-44
K.r.: seoska naselja, optine, podruja, broj stanovnika, prostorni razmetaj
K.w.: rural settlements, communes, regions, population size, spatial distribution
U ovom radu analizirana su ruralna naselja SR Jugoslavije i njenih velikih podruja (Crna Gora, sredinja Srbija, Vojvodina i Kosovo
i Metohija): njihov broj i struktura prema demografskoj veliini 1991. u poredjenju sa 1948. godinom (nivo velikih podruja), kao i
prosean broj stanovnika i gustina (1991) na nivou optina. Prezentirana analiza pokazuju da u posmatranom periodu postepeno, i
permanentno, jaa proces diferencijacije naselja, i to ne samo prema glavnoj socio-funkcionalnoj razlici (selo-grad) ve i unutar one
kategorije naselja koja su imala ruralna obeleja. Ova je rezultat kako nekih specifinosti fiziko-geografskog i nasledjenog
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drutveno-istorijskog karaktera, tako i veoma znaajnih promena u osnovnim populacionim tokovima (proces depopulacije,
prostorno-demografske polarizacije, i dr.). Diferencijacija je manje izraena u podruju Vojvodine i Kosova i Metohije, a vie u
prostoru Crne Gore i sredinjeg dela Srbije. Kao zajedniku odliku ruralnih naselja sve etiri makroceline (kao i apsolutno najveeg
broja optina u SR Jugoslaviji), u periodu 1948-1991. godine, autor, istie sve jau tendenciju smanjenja stanovnitva kao rezultantu
dugoronih emigracionih, ali i nepovoljnih trendova u prirodnom kretanju (brzi pad nataliteta i porast mortaliteta), izuzev u veini
optina Kosova i Metohije. To je, izmedju ostalog, rezultiralo i veoma brzim poveanjem broja malih (patuljastih) seoskih naselja, od
kojih je veina osudjena na demografsko nestajanje, kao i naglaenijim populacionim usitnjavanjem sve veeg broja ruralnih naselja,
to e, biti nastavljeno, i u bliskoj budunosti.
The paper analyzes rural settlements in the FR of Yugoslavia and its major regions (Montenegro, central Serbia, Vojvodina, as well
as Kosovo and Metohia): their number and structure by demographic size in 1991 relative to 1948 (at the level of major regions), as
well as the average size and density of population in 1991 (at the level of communes). The analysis presented shows a continued
gradual process of differentiation of settlements, not only by the main social and functional differentiation (rural urban) but also
within the settlement category with rural characteristics. This differentiation was caused not only by the physical and geographical
specifics and the inherited social and historical characteristics, but also by very significant changes in the main population flows
(process of depopulation, spatial and demographic polarization, etc.). The above differences are less pronounced in Vojvodina and in
Kosovo and Metohia, and more in Montenegro and central Serbia. The common feature of rural settlements in all four major regions
(the absolute majority of communes in the FR of Yugoslavia), in the period from 1948. to 1991, is a strong upward tendency in
population decline due to long-term migratory movements and unfavorable trends in natural movement (rapid decline in fertility and
increase in mortality), except in the majority of communes in Kosovo and Metohia. This has, among other things, led to a very rapid
increase in the number of small (dwarf) rural settlements, most of which are under threat of demographic extinction, as well as to a
pronounced decline in the population size of a growing number of rural settlements, which is likely to continue in the near future.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1999
godina XXXVII
Penev, Goran
PRIRODNO KRETANJE SEOSKOG STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE SA POSEBNIM OSVRTOM NA
FERTILITET POETKOM 1990-IH
NATURAL MOVEMENT OF THE RURAL POPULATION OF YUGOSLAVIA WITH AN EMPHASIS ON
FERTILITY IN THE EARLY 90S
45-72
K.r.: seosko stanovnitvo, prirodno kretanje, reprodukcija stanovnitva, fertilitet, kohortni fertilitet
K.w.: rural population, natural movement, population replacement, fertility, cohort fertility
U drugoj polovini 20. veka, proces intenzivne deruralizacije, odnosno, smanjenja ukupnog seoskog stanovnitva SR Jugoslavije je
bio iskljuivo posledica iseljavanja iz sela u gradove. Tokom itavog perioda prirodni prirataj seoskog stanovnitva je, na nivou
zemlje kao celine, pokazivao tendencije opadanja, ali je bio stalno pozitivan. U radu autor razmatra komponente prirodnog kretanja
seoskog stanovnitva, njihovu dinamiku, posebno u periodu 1981-1997, regionalne specifinosti do nivoa republika i pokrajina, kao i
specifinosti u odnosu na prirodno kretanje gradskog stanovnitva. Autor posebno istie da se prilikom analize prirodnog kretanja
stanovnitva po tipu naselja mora voditi rauna o vrlo izraenoj medjuzavisnosti komponenti populacione dinamike i starosno-polne
strukture, posebno zbog injenice to se sastav po starosti i polu sve vie javlja kao najvanija neposredna determinanta prirodnog
prirataja stanovnitva. Naime, ve nekoliko decenija stopa nataliteta seoskog stanovnitva Jugoslavije je nia stope nataliteta
gradskog stanovnitva, a stopa mortaliteta via. Istovremeno, fertilitet seoskog stanovnitva je vii, a mortalitet po starosti nii nego
kod gradskog stanovnitva. Takve suprotnosti su prvenstveno rezultat nepovoljnije starosne strukture seoskog stanivnitva, kao i
njegove primetno poremeene polne strukture (izrazit viak mukog stanovnitva, posebno mladjeg sredovenog).
U nastavku su analizirane osnovne karakteristike fertiliteta i reprodukcije seoskog stanovnita na osnovu rezultata demografske
statistike. Autor je miljenja da su zbog delimine ili potpune eliminacije uticaja starosne strukture, opta kao i stopa ukupnog
fertiliteta adekvatniji pokazatelji plodnosti seoskog stanovnitva. Tako su u periodu 1990-1992. vrednosti oba pokazatelja vie kod
seoskog nego kod gradskog stanovnitva, a s obzirom na nivo mortaliteta, dovoljna za prosto obnavljanje stanovnitva (neto stopa
reprodukcije je iznosila 1,0, a kod gradskog stanovnitva 0,9). Seosko stanovnitvo svih velikih podruja zemlje ima vii fertilitet od
gradskog, s tim to su razlike na niskonatalitetnim podrujima minimalne, dok su na Kosovu i Metohiji one i dalje znaajne.
Analiza fertiliteta je dopunjena rezultatima poslednjeg popisa iz 1991. godine u kojima su prvi put objavljeni podaci o broju
ivorodjene dece enskog stanovnitva po starosti i tipu naselja. I pored toga to se posmatra samo ensko stanovnitvo u vreme
popisa, a ne u momentu ivorodjenja deteta, autor je miljenja da analiza kohortnog fertiliteta prema Popisu prua znatno realniju
sliku fertiliteta seoskog stanovnitva nego to je to sluaj na osnovu podataka vitalne statistike, i to prvenstveno zbog vrlo naglaenog
problema pravilne registracije vitalnih dogadjaja po tipu naselja. Tako vrednosti stopa kumulativnog fertiliteta ukazuju da je fertilitet
enskog stanovnitva na selu primetno vei od efektivnog fertiliteta enskog gradskog stanovnitva. To vai za sve petogodinje
starosne grupe bez izuzetka, i za sva velika podruja podjednako.
U zavrnom delu rada analiziran je kohortni fertilitet autohtonog i migrantskog stanovnitva, kao i fertilitet po nacionalnosti. Opti je
zakljuak da ensko doseljeno stanovnitvo ima vii fertilitet od autohtonog, a da su razlike znatno izraenije kod seoskog u odnosu
na gradsko stanovnitvo. Autor ovu pojavu tumai injenicom da se kod seoskog enskog migrantskog stanovnitva uglavnom radi o
tzv. enidbenim migracijama. to se tie fertiliteta po nacionalnosti moe se rei da su i u kod seoskog stanovnitva prisutne poznate
razlike. Naime, prema nivou fertiliteta sve brojnije nacionalnosti se mogu svrstati u tri grupe. Najvii fertilitet imaju Albanke,
Romkinje i Muslimanke, Crnogorke imaju umereno visok fertilitet, a Hrvatice fertilitet koji je uglavnom dovoljan za zamenu
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generacija. U treu grupu su svrstane Srpkinje, Jugoslovenke, Madjarice, kao i ogromna veina ena ostalih nacionalnih pripadnosti
(Bunjevke, Rumunke, Slovakinje). Sve su to nacionalnosti ije ene imaju vrlo nizak nivo fertiliteta koji je ve dugi niz godina
nedovoljan za zamenu generacija.
The process of intensive deruralization or decline in total rural population of the FR of Yugoslavia in the second half of the 20th
century came exclusively as a result of migration from rural to urban areas. Though constantly positive at the level of the country as a
whole, the downward tendency in rural population growth was observed throughout the period. The author analyzes components and
dynamics of natural movement in rural population with emphasis on the period from 1981 to 1997, regional specifics up to the
republican and provincial levels, and the main differences from the specifics of natural movement in urban population. The author
highlights that in analyzing natural movement by type of settlement, particular attention should be paid to the very pronounced
interdependency between the components of population dynamics and the age-sex structure, the more so as the latter is becoming the
most significant direct determinant of the natural population growth. Namely, crude birth rate of rural population in Yugoslavia has
for several decades now been lower than the corresponding measure for urban population, while the crude death rate has, however,
been higher. At the same time, in age-specific terms, fertility was higher and mortality lower in rural relative to urban populations.
Such discrepancy evolved primarily from the unfavorable age-specific structure of rural population and its notably disturbed sexspecific structure (pronounced surplus in male, particularly younger middle-aged population).
The author goes on to analyze the main features of fertility and reproduction in rural population based on demographic statistics. He
argues that the general and total fertility rates represent more adequate indicators of fertility in rural population, as the impact of age
structure has been partially or even fully eliminated. Thus, in 1990-1992, both indicators are higher for rural relative to urban
population, and sufficiently high relative to the mortality level to assure integral replacement (net reproduction was 1.0 in rural
relative to 0.9 in urban population). In all major regions of the country, fertility was higher in rural relative to urban population. Such
differences were minimal in low fertility regions, while remaining significant in Kosovo and Metohia.
The analysis of fertility was supplemented by the 1991 census data, which, for the first time, included the number of live born
children by age of mother and type of settlement. Despite the fact that such data on female population illustrate the situation at the
moment of census taking only, and not at the moment of birth, the author thinks that the cohort analysis based on the census data
provide a much more realistic account of fertility in rural population than the period analysis based on vital statistics, primarily as it
resolves the problem of accurate registration of vital events by type of settlement. Thus, cohort fertility rates show that fertility of
rural female population is notably higher than the effective fertility in urban areas. This is true for all five-year age groups without
exception, and equally true for all major regions.
Finally, the author analyzes cohort fertility of the autochthon versus migrant populations, as well as fertility by ethnic origin. He
draws a general conclusion that fertility is higher in migrant relative to autochthon female population, and that the differences are
much more pronounced in rural relative to urban populations. This phenomenon is explained by the so-called marriage-motivated
migration, which the author assumes to be dominant in migrant female population. As for fertility rates by ethnic origin, the wellknown differences are also evident in rural population. Namely, all ethnic groups can be classified by level of fertility into three
categories. The highest rate is recorded for ethnic Albanian, Roma and Muslim women. Montenegrin women record moderately high
fertility rates, while the rate recorded for women of Croatian descent is generally sufficient for generation replacement. The third
category is made up of Serb, Yugoslav, and ethnic Hungarian women as well as the great majority of women of other ethnic origin
(Bunjevac, Romanian and Slovak). All these nationalities record very low fertility levels, which have for years been insufficient to
enable generation replacement.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1999
godina XXXVII
Antonovi, Jelena
STARENJE SEOSKOG STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE
AGING OF RURAL POPULATION IN YUGOSLAVIA
73-92
K.r.: seosko stanovnitvo, demografsko starenje, starosna struktura, deruralizacija
K.w.: rural population, demographic ageing, age structure, deruralization
Masovne migracije na relaciji selo-grad su osnovni neposredni inilac smanjenja seoskog stanovnitva Jugoslavije do koga je dolo u
drugoj polovini 20. veka. Migracije su, takodje, zbog izrazite selektivnosti migranata po starosti i polu, bitno uticale i na promene
starosne strukture seoskog stanovnitva koje su se odvijale u smeru ubrzanog odvijanja procesa demografskog starenja. Sa svoje
strane, tako formirana starosna struktura, preko dejstva na smanjenje nataliteta, odnosno na poveanje mortaliteta, u sve veoj meri
postaje jedan od osnovnih inilaca daljeg usporavanja, a na veini podruja i glavni faktor depopulacije seoskog stanovnitva.
U radu su analizirane promene starosne strukture seoskog stanovnitva SR Jugoslavije i njenih republika i pokrajina u periodu 19611991, sa posebnim osvrtom na stanje u vreme sprovodjenja poslednjeg popisa stanovnitva iz 1991. godine. Autor naglaava da
postoje vidne razlike izmedju procesa starenja gradskog i seoskog stanovnitva, a i da su u pogledu dostignute demografske starosti
veoma izraene regionalne razlike. Na osnovu analize kretanja osnovnih pokazatelja demografske starosti (udeo petogodinjih i
velikih starosnih grupa, prosena starost, indeks starenja, kao i kretanje najvanijih starosnih funkcionalnih kontingenata), u radu se
zakljuuje da se proces starenja odvijao kako kod seoskog tako i kod gradskog stanovnitva, a i da se u posmatranom periodu (19611991) on intenzivnije odvijao na selu (vei udeo starih, vee vrednosti ideksa starenja i prosene starosti).
Autor ukazuje da je starenje seoskog stanovnitva prisutno u svim republikama i pokrajinama, ali da je najvie odmaklo u centralnoj
Srbiji i Vojvodini, dok je na Kosovu i Metohiji ono bilo vrlo usporeno, i pre svega prisutno tokom poslednjeg medjupopisnog
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perioda (1981-1991). Kosovo i Metohija je ujedno jedino veliko podruje Jugoslavije za ije se seosko stanovnitvo i 1991 godine
moglo rei da je jo uvek demografski mladje od stanovnitva gradskih naselja. Na ostalim velikim podrujima zemlje, starenje
seoskog stanovnitva je bilo znatno intenzivnije od starenja gradskog stanovnitva, i to kako od baze tako i s vrha starosne piramide.
Imajui u vidu minimalne razlike u nivou fertiliteta i mortaliteta stanovnitva po tipu naselja (posebno u centralnoj Srbiji i
Vojvodini), autor je miljenja da je na niskonatalitetnim podrujima nasledjena starosna struktura osnovni uzrok naglog ubrzanja
procesa starenja seoskog stanovnitva.
Mass migration to urban areas constitutes the basic direct factor of the decline in rural population of Yugoslavia in the second half of
the 20th century. Due to the characteristic migration patterns by age and sex, they have had a substantial impact on the change in age
structure of rural population towards rapid demographic ageing. By inducing decline in fertility and an increase in mortality, the
newly formed age structure is increasingly becoming one of the basic factors to further decline in population, or even the major factor
to rural depopulation in the majority of regions.
The paper analyzes changes in age structure of rural population in the FR of Yugoslavia and across its republics and provinces during
the period from 1961 to 1991. The conditions prevailing during the last census (1991) are particularly highlighted. The author points
to distinct differences in ageing of urban versus rural populations, and considerable regional differences at the achieved level of
demographic age. Based on the main demographic age indicators (the share of five-year and larger age groups, average age, ageing
index and movement in major age-specific contingents), the author concludes that the process of population ageing had taken place in
both rural and urban populations, but was more intensive in villages (higher share of the aged, higher index of ageing and higher
average age) during the period under review.
The author points to distinct ageing of rural population in all republics and provinces. It was most prominent in central Serbia and
Vojvodina, while being quite slow in Kosovo and Metohia and recorded mainly in between the last two censuses (1981-1991).
Likewise, Kosovo and Metohia constitute the only major region of Yugoslavia in which rural population in 1991 is still
demographically younger than the population in urban settlements. Rural versus urban population ageing was much more intensive in
other major regions of the country, both from the base and from the apex of the age pyramid. In view of the minimal differences in
fertility and mortality levels by type of settlement (particularly in central Serbia and Vojvodina), the author argues that the inherited
age structure constitutes the main cause of rapid acceleration in rural population ageing in low fertility regions.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1999
godina XXXVII
Bobi, Mirjana
SAVREMENA SEOSKA PORODICA I DOMAINSTVO U JUGOSLAVIJI
MODERN RURAL FAMILY AND HOUSEHOLD IN YUGOSLAVIA
93-118
K.r.: seosko domainstvo, porodica, transformacija, nepoljoprivredno domainstvo, zadruga
K.w.: rural household, family, transformation, non-agricultural household, zadruga
U radu se analizira savremeno seosko domainstvo u Jugoslaviji, kao celini, i po podrujima. Prvo se daje statistika i socioloka
definicija osnovnih pojmova, a zatim sledi kombinovana socio-demografska analiza. Kao osnovni kriterijum korien je
rezidencijalni status stanovnitva (mesto stalnog boravka), polazei od administrativne podele naselja, pri emu je kao seosko
tretirano vangradsko ("ostalo").
Iskustvena osnova je formirana na osnovu dve vrste izvora: popisa stanovnitva i odgovarajuih prateih studija, kao i saznanja
dubinskih studija seoske porodice tokom devedesetih godina.
Teorija modernizacije je pruila osnovni okvir za analizu stanja i promena seoskog domainstva u Jugoslaviji od poetka XX veka, s
tim to je rad veim delom posveen drutveno-ekonomskim prilikama nakon II svetskog rata. Analizirane su sledee komponente
seoskog domainstva: brojno stanje i kretanje, prosena veliina i njene promene, porodini sastav. Utvrdjena je tipologija seoskih
domainstava, zasnovana na dostignutom nivou socijalnog preobraaja, kao i nekim demografskim osobenostima. etiri su glavna
tipa seoskih domainstava: 1) isto poljoprivredno; 2) meovito (sa prihodom iz poljoprivrede i nepoljoprivrede); 3)
nepoljoprivredno; 4) starako. Pojava i rast meovitih domainstava posle rata, nakon uspostavljanja socijalistike komandno planske
privrede bila je rezultat objektivnih protivrenosti na putu preobraaja individualnog poljoprivrednog gazdinstva u savremeno trino
i njegove kooperacije sa dravnim zadrunim sektorom. Nakon toga, od poetka osamdesetih, usled sve nepovoljnijeg poloaja,
poljoprivredna proizvodnja se postepeno naputa ili se odrava na naturalnom nivou, a veina lanova porodice ivi od dohotka
ostvarenog u nepoljoprivredi. Ove tendencije su se najbre ispoljile u najplodnijoj Vojvodini, a najsporije u centralnoj Srbiji. Kao
posledica navedenog drutveno-ekonomskog, selo je izloeno i snanom demografskom preobraaju, pri emu je danas najizraenije
starenje i feminizacija stanovnitva i radne snage, odnosno suavanje porodinog sastava na branu porodicu koju ine ostareli
roditelje bez naslednika.
Seosko domainstvo i/ili porodica je pretrpelo krucijalne promene u tri glavna segmenta: 1) veliini; 2) srodnikom sastavu; i 3)
poloajima i ulogama lanova. O ovom poslednjem aspektu podrobnije informacije dobijamo iz brojnih dubinskih istraivanja
seoskog naina ivota. Analiza porodinih odnosa na selu sprovedena je u dva segmenta: intrageneracijskom (medju suprunicima i
medju decom, posebno razliitog pola) i intergeneracijskom (relacija roditelji-deca). Segregacija polnih uloga uz dominaciju muastareine, kao i sina-naslednika i dalje je osnovno obeleje seoske porodice. Domainstvo, roditeljstsvo pa i samo gazdinstvo (zbog
sve vee angaovanosti domaina na poslovima van poljoprivrede) osnovni su izvori samorealizacije seoske ene. Udaja, radjanje
dece (posebno muke) predstavlja glavni kanal socijalne promocije za mlade devojke u seoskoj sredini, a steeno obrazovanje i
sticanje dohotka izvan sela im ne omoguava jai proboj u sferi odluivanja o celini porodinog ivota, o budunosti dece, pa ni o
linoj sudbini. Konfliktnost u braku je niska, zadovoljstvo dvostrukom ulogom majke i domaice kao i razumevanje teine socijalne
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uloge mukarca - "hranioca porodice" tokom aktuelnog perioda drutvene krize i rasula, veoma visoko.
U radu je konstatovan nedostatak podataka o seoskom domainstvu na Kosovu i Metohiji, zbog bojkota poslednjeg popisa od strane
veinskog, albanskog stanovnitva. U tom smislu je uinjen pokuaj da se nedostatak kvantitativnih informacija kompenzuje
rezultatima reprezentativnog istraivanja albanskih zadruga na Kosovu i Metohiji.
The paper analyzes modern rural household in Yugoslavia, both by region and at the level of the country as a whole. The author
begins by providing a statistical and sociological definition of basic terms, and proceeds with a combination of social and
demographic analysis. The basic criterion used is the residential status of the population (permanent residence) based on the
administrative distribution of settlements with the non-city ("other") population treated as part of rural population.
The descriptive basis was formed on the basis of two types of sources: population census data and relevant studies, on the one hand,
and comprehensive researches of rural family in the 90s, on the other.
The modernization theory has provided the basic framework for the analysis of the state and movement in rural households in
Yugoslavia since the beginning of the 20th century, but the paper deals mainly with social and economic developments following the
Second World War. The following components of the rural households are analyzed: dynamics and average size, as well as
composition of households. With reference to the level of the social change they had undergone and some demographic special
features, rural households are classified into four main types: 1) purely agricultural; 2) mixed (with income earned from agricultural
and non-agricultural activities); 3) non-agricultural; and 4) households of elderly people.
The appearance and growth of mixed households during the post-war period, following adoption of the socialistic command
economy, came as a result of objective contradictions in transformation of an individual agricultural household into a modern
market-oriented holding, and its cooperation with the state-owned cooperative sector. Since early 80s, however, with deterioration in
its position, agricultural production is gradually given up or maintained at the subsistence level, while most family members earn
their living from the non-agricultural sector. These tendencies were most rapidly observed in Vojvodina, which is the most fertile
region of the country, and most slowly in central Serbia. As a result of the above social and economic transformation the village was
also exposed to a strong demographic transformation, which was most readily observed in ageing and feminization of population and
its labor force, and narrowing down of family structure to conjugal family united through marriage, which is made up of aged parents
without an heir.
The rural household and/or family have undergone crucial changes in respect of three main segments: 1) size; 2) structure; and 3)
position and role of family members. This last aspect has been the subject of numerous comprehensive studies into the way of life in
villages. The analysis of family relations in a village was conducted in two segments: intra-generation (between spouses and between
children, especially of different gender) and inter-generation (parent - children relations). Segregation of roles by gender is still
characterized by male domination, husband- head of the family, and son - the heir. Housework, parenthood, and the homestead itself
(due to the increased engagement of the husband in non-agricultural activities) are the main sources of self-realization of women.
Marriage and bearing children (especially male children) represent the main social promotion channel for young girls in a village
environment, while education and earning income from work outside the village do not ensure a significant role in making decisions
on family life in general, children's future or even personal destiny. Incidence of conflict in marriage is rare. Satisfaction with a
twofold role of the mother and housekeeper is very high as well as understanding for the difficulties of the social position of a man the "bread winner" in the current social crisis and disintegration.
The author points to the lack of data on rural households in Kosovo and Metohia caused by the boycott of the latest census by the
majority, ethnic Albanian population. An attempt was hence made to compensate for the lack of quantitative information by
presenting results of representative investigation of Albanian zadrugas in Kosovo and Metohia.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1999
godina XXXVII
Radivojevi, Biljana
EKONOMSKE STRUKTURE SEOSKOG STANOVNITVA JUGOSLAVIJE
ECONOMIC STRUCTURES OF RURAL POPULATION IN YUGOSLAVIA
119-140
K.r.: seosko stanovnitvo, Jugoslavija, ekonomska struktura, poljoprivredno stanovnitvo, deagrarizacija
K.w.: rural population, Yugoslavia, economic structure, agricultural population, de-agrarization
Medjuzavisnost demografskog i ekonomskog razvitka manifestuje se preko ekonomske strukture stanovnitva, ali je i direktno
determinie. Na promene u strukturama seoskog stanovnitva, veliki uticaj imali su procesi industrijalizacije i deagrarizacije.
Nerazvijenu privredu Jugoslavije pre II svetskog rata, sa preteno agrarnim karakterom i nerazvijenom industrijom, karakterisali su
vikovi radne snage na selu i velika agrarna prenaseljenost. Posleratno favorizovanje industrije, zasnovano i na prelivanju
akumulacije iz poljoprivrede, dovelo je do zastoja poljoprivredne delatnosti i do nesklada u razvoju industrije i poljoprivrede. To je
uslovilo masovnu migraciju seoskog stanovnitva u gradove i njegovo angaovanje u nepoljoprivredne delatnosti. Tako je proces
ubrzane industrijalizacije, menjajui strukturu privrede, menjao i ekonomsku strukturu stanovnitva. Transfer seoskog stanovnitva
odvijao se tokom itavog posleratnog perioda, a naroito intenzivno u nekim razdobljima, kada je i znatno prevazilazio prirodni
prirataj stanovnitva poljoprivrednih gazdinstava. Naputanje poljoprivrede i odlazak stanovnitva u gradove imao je i brojne
negativne efekte upravo zbog neumerenog i stihijskog odvijanja. Senilizacija i feminizacija sela praktino su ostavile selo bez radne
snage, a poljoprivreda je postala zapostavljena privredna delatnost.
Prema popisu iz 1981. godine u vangradskim naseljima Jugoslavije bilo je 45,5% aktivnih lica, 4,9% lica sa linim prihodima i
49,6% izdravanih. Stopa aktivnosti u ovim naseljima neto je via od stope za ukupno gradsko i vangradsko stanovnitvo. Aktivno
stanovnitvo vangradskih naselja je i dalje najvie skoncentrisano u poljoprivredi, a zatim u industriji i rudarstvu. Tako je u 1991.
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godini u centralnoj Srbiji na ove oblasti otpadalo ak 77,6% (samo u poljoprivredi 58,1%) aktivnih lica. Od ostalih delatnosti najvie
su zastupljeni gradjevinarstvo, saobraaj i veze i trgovina.
Smanjenje poljoprivrednog stanovnitva je jedna od najznaajnijih promena u socio-ekonomskim strukturama stanovnitva
Jugoslavije. U periodu od 1953. do 1991. godine smanjeno je za preko 3 miliona lica, a njegov udeo u ukupnom stanovnitvu gotovo
etiri puta.
Prema popisu iz 1981. godine u naseljima seoskog tipa ivelo je 93,9% od ukupnog poljoprivrednog stanovnitva Jugoslavije.
Istovremeno ono je inilo 43,9% populacije u tim naseljima. Tendencija opadanja poljoprivrednog stanovnitva nastavljena je i u
najnovijem periodu, to potvrdjuju i podaci iz 1991. godine za teritorije u kojima je popis u potpunosti sproveden.
Smanijivanjem poljoprivrednog stanovnitva opadao je i broj aktivnih poljoprivrednika, kao i njihov udeo u radnoj snazi van
gradskih podruja. Po popisu iz 1981. godine u Jugoslaviji je u ovim naseljima gotovo svako drugo aktivno lice blio poljoprivrednik.
Opta stopa aktivnosti poljoprivrednog stanovnitva iznosila je 59,7% i via je od stope za ukupno vangradsko stanovnitvo (45,5%),
s obzirom na vee radno angaovanje graninih starosnih kategorija radno sposobnog stanovnitva u poljoprivrednim zanimanjima.
The inter-dependence of demographic and economic development both determines and is reflected in the economic structure of the
population. Industrialization and the process of de-agrarization have strongly influenced the changes in rural population structures.
The underdeveloped economy of Yugoslavia before the II World War of mostly agrarian character and underdeveloped industry, was
characterized by excess labor force in villages and substantial agrarian overpopulation. Preferential treatment of industry during the
post-war period, based on the outpouring of savings from agriculture, hindered agricultural activity and created discrepancy in the
level of industrial and agricultural development. This led to mass migration of rural population into cities and its engagement in
non-agricultural activities. Hence, by changing the structure of the economy, the process of accelerated urbanization also changed the
economic structure of the population. The transfer of rural population continued throughout the period following the II World War. It
was very intensive during certain periods and far in excess of the natural growth in agricultural population. Abandoning agriculture
and migration to cities has had numerous negative effects, particularly because of its immoderate and rapid development. Senilization
and feminization of villages practically left them without labor force, while agriculture became a neglected economic activity.
Based on the 1981 census, 45.5% of population in non-urban settlements of Yugoslavia were economically active, 4.9% were
self-employed, while 49.6% were dependants. The rate of economically active population in these settlements was somewhat higher
than for the total urban and non-urban population. The economically active population in non-urban settlements is still most highly
concentrated in the agricultural sector, followed by industry and mining. Thus, in 1991, 77.6% of the economically active population
of central Serbia were employed in these three sectors (of which 58.1% in agriculture). The other three sectors with relative
importance are construction, transport and communication, and trade.
The decline in agricultural population is one of the most significant changes in the social and economic structure of population in
Yugoslavia. In the period from 1953 to 1991, it declined by over 3 million persons, while its share in the total decreased almost four
times.
Based on the 1981 census, 93.9% of total agricultural population of Yugoslavia lived in villages. At the same time, it accounted for
43.9% of population in those settlements. The downward tendency in agricultural population has continued in recent years as is
shown by the 1991 census data for territories in which it was fully conducted.
With the decline in agricultural population there was also recorded a decline in the number of persons actively engaged in agriculture
as well as a decline in their share in the work force of non-urban settlements. Based on the 1981 census, almost every second person
living in these settlements was an agricultural producer. General rate of economic activity of agricultural population amounted to
59.7% and was higher than the rate for total non-urban population (45.5%) because of higher engagement of border age categories of
the economically active population in agricultural activities.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1999
godina XXXVII
Todorovi, Marina, Gordana Vojkovi
STANOVNITVO - ELEMENT RAZVOJA POLJOPRIVREDE U SRBIJI
POPULATION - ELEMENT OF DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURE IN SERBIA
141-162
K.w.: population, agriculture
K.r.: stanovnitvo, poljoprivreda
U radu se polazi od teorijskog pristupa relaciji poljoprivreda - stanovnitvo, istorijskog preseka promena uloge i znaaja stanovnika
kao poljoprivrednog proizvodjaa, a potom, konkretno, posmatra stanovnitvo kao element (potencijal - ogranienje) razvoja
poljoprivrede u Srbiji. Poznato je da, kada se govori o stanovnitvu kao proizvodjau, ukupni proizvodni rezultati, i posebno
spremnost na prihvatanje tehniko-tehnolokih inovacija, sposobnost za brzu adaptaciju novim uslovima, bitno zavise od strukture
radno-sposobnog stanovnitva (starosno-polne, obrazovne i dr). Stoga su u radu analizirane regionalne razlike u starosno-polnoj,
obrazovnoj strukturi poljoprivrednog stanovnitva, kao i nivo proizvodnosti aktivnih poljoprivrednika, kao jedan od elemenata
(pokazatelja) koji blie odredjuje stanovnitvo kao faktor poljoprivredne proizvodnje. Prisutne su izraene makroregionalne razlike u
odnosu na prosek Srbije prema ovom elementu.
The author begins by discussing the relationship between agriculture and population at a theoretical level, proceeds with a historical
review of changes in the role and significance of an individual as agricultural producer, and finally, analyzes population as an
element (potentials - limitations) of agricultural development in Serbia. The overall production results, and particularly the propensity
to technical and technological innovation, as well as the ability to adapt to the changed conditions are, as we know well, crucially
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dependant on the structure of the working population. Hence, the author discusses regional differences in agricultural population by
age, sex, level of education and productivity to provide a clear illustration of the impact of this element (indicator) on the population
as the factor of agricultural production. The results show significant macroregional differences by this element with respect to the
average for Serbia.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1999
godina XXXVII
Raevi, Mirjana
SPROVODJENJE PROGRAMA ZA PLANIRANJE PORODICE U SEOSKIM USLOVIMA: POTREBE, IZGLEDI,
MOGUA REENJA
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS IN VILLAGES: NEEDS, PROSPECTS AND
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
163-184
K.r.: seoska populacija, program za planiranje porodice
K.w.: rural population, family planning programs
Rad se sastoji iz tri dela. U prvom delu autor daje osvrt na program za planiranje porodice koji je poetkom 1998. godine usvojila
Vlada Republike Srbije. Pored prikaza ciljeva, mera i institucionalne osnove programskih aktivnosti, panja je posveena i oceni
dokumenta. Posebno je podvueno da je odredjivanje elemenata programa za planiranje porodice kao i njegovo usvajanje tek prvi
korak i da e uspeh zavisiti umnogome od naina njegove operacionalizacije a posebno od sprovodjenja predloenih mera i
aktivnosti.
U okviru prvog dela rada je konstantovano i da u usvojenom dokumentu nisu dotaknuta pitanja vezana za posebne potrebe ili
specifine uslove sprovodjenja programskih akcija u okviru seoske populacije. Otuda su drugi i trei deo rada posveeni
istraivakim znanjima o seoskoj populaciji Srbije i pragmatinim iskustvima sticanim tokom sprovodjenja slinih akcija vezanih za
ovu ciljnu grupu u drugim zemljama. Rezultati anketa sprovodjenih u devedesetim godinama na nisko i visokonatalitetnim sredinama
su analizirani da bi se istakle potrebe sprovodjenja programa u seoskoj populaciji i ocenili izgledi programskih napora vezanih za
promenu reproduktivnog ponaanja. Sumirana iskustva sprovedenih programa za planiranje porodice u drugim sredinama a posebno
konkretizacija razliitih akcionih elemenata su, pak, posmatrani sa aspekta potrebe operacionalizacije programa za planiranje
porodice u Srbiji.
This paper is made up of three parts. The first part provides an analysis of the family planning program adopted by the Government
of Serbia in early 1998. In addition to the targets, measures and the institutional basis of the activities envisaged by the program,
attention is also given to the evaluation of the document itself. It is highlighted that formulation of the elements of the family
planning program and their adoption constitute only the first step and that the success of the program shall largely depend on the
manner of its operationalization, and particularly, on the implementation of the proposed measures and activities.
In the first part of the paper, the author also asserts that the document adopted neither included the points of particular interest nor the
specific conditions for implementing the program-related activities in the context of rural population. Hence, the second and the third
parts discuss the research findings regarding rural population of Serbia and the pragmatic experience acquired by other countries in
carrying out similar activities. The information gathered in the 90s by means of questionnaires conducted in low and high-fertility
regions was analyzed to highlight the need for implementing the program in rural population and to assess the prospects of the
program-related efforts pertaining to a change in reproductive behavior. The summary experience gained in implementing family
planning programs in other countries, and concretization of different elements of the activities undertaken was observed from the
point of view of the need to operationalize family planning programs in Serbia.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/1999
godina XXXVII
Stamenkovi, Srboljub
NAUNA POLAZITA PROUAVANJA AKTUELNE RURALNE SITUACIJE I SEOSKIH NASELJA KAO
MOGUIH CENTARA RAZVOJA SRBIJE
SCIENTIFIC BASIS FOR EXAMINING CURRENT RURAL SITUATION AND RURAL SETTLEMENTS AS
POTENTIAL CENTERS OF DEVELOPMENT IN SERBIA
185-194
K.r.: seosko naselje, mrea seoskih naselja, ruralni razvoj, revitalizacija sela
K.w.: village, network of villages, rural development, revitalization of villages
Fundamentalna drutvena pretpostavka, pored Prostornog plana Srbije, konstituisanja racionalne mree seoskih naselja razliitog
centraliteta (funkcionalno-hijerarhijskog nivoa) je i izrada strategije ruralnog razvoja Srbije koja treba da definie: glavne ciljeve
dugoronog razvoja sela, pretpostavke i uslove za ostvarivanje dugoronih ciljeva, ulogu sela i ruralne privrede u ekonomskom i
uopte drutvenom razvoju, oekivana dugorona kretanja u oblasti razvoja sela i transformacije tradicionalnog seljatva u seljatvo
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savremenog (trinog) tipa, i druge. S tog aspekta, pomenuta nauna polazita prouavanja aktuelne ruralne situacije, u prvom redu
prostorno-demografske i funkcionalne, i ruralnog razvoja - dosadanjeg i perspektivnog, u kontekstu izbora (konstituisanja) ruralnih
sredita kao moguih centara razvoja manjih grupa naselja i teritorija, a to praktino znai i Srbije kao celine sa mrenohijerarhijskom strukturom naselja gradskih i seoskih, u kojoj se odredjena ruralna naselja stavljaju u funkciju nosioca, inicijatora i
regulatora razvoja i pozitivne transformacije privrednog i geografskog okruenja. Nauna istraivanja ove vrste postaju fokusno
razvojno pitanje, jer je evidentan deficit novih, sistematizovanih i precizno formulisanih znanja o seoskim naseljima, ruralnom
razvoju i perspektivi naeg sela. Dugovremen i osmiljen rad na istraivanju naeg sela postoje bazino polazite aktiviranja i
racionalnog iskoriavanja obilja raspoloivih prirodnih, ljudskih (demografskih) i materijalnih (proizvodnih) resursa, koji se u
uslovima izgradjivanja apsolutno trine privrede mogu viestruko eksploatisati. Koliko e se u tome uspeti zavisi od potencijala i
optih ekonomskih interesa, koji su evidentni na svim drutvenim nivoima lokalnom, subregionalnom, regionalnom i dravnom
(saveznom i republikom), ali, svakako, najvie od drutvenih investicija u nauna istraivanja koja se zasnivaju na globalnim
drutvenim potrebama i posebnim ekonomsko-politikim interesima, koja, uz to, kako smo ve pomenuli, pored ostalog, streme i ka
konstituisanju ruralnog planiranja kao integralnog dela prostornog planiranja, afirmisanog dela opteg sistema planiranja u Srbiji.
Besides Spatial Planning of Serbia, the fundamental social prerequisite to the constitution of a rational network of villages of
different centrality (functional and hierarchic level) is the elaboration of a strategy of rural development of Serbia. This ought to
define the main long-term targets of rural development, prerequisites and conditions for their realization, the role of villages and rural
economy in economic and general social development, as well as the long-term expectations with regard to the development of
villages and transformation of traditional peasantry into a modern, market-oriented type, etc. From that point of view, the above
scientific basis for examining the current rural situation, primarily its spatial-demographic and functional aspects, and rural
development - so far and in future, within the context of selecting rural centers to constitute centers of potential development of
smaller groups of settlements and territories, which practically means of Serbia as a whole with its network of hierarchically
structured settlements - urban and rural, in which certain rural settlements function as bearers, initiators and regulators of
development and positive transformation of economic and geographical environment. This type of scientific research has become the
main development issue in the light of evident shortage of new, systematized and accurately formulated knowledge about villages,
rural development and future prospects of villages in Serbia. Long years of meticulous research of our villages have provided a basis
for activation and rational utilization of abundant natural, human (demographic), and material (productive) resources, which may be
put to a multiple use within the context of developing a fully market-oriented economy. The degree of our success shall depend on
the potentials and general economic interests at all social levels - local, subregional, regional and state (federal and republican). It
shall, however, primarily depend on the size of social investment in scientific research, which shall reflect global social needs and
particular economic and political interests. As noted earlier, there are both needs and interests to develop rural planning as an integral
part of spatial planning, which is an asserted part of the general system of planning in Serbia.
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/1999
godina XXXVII
Stankovi, Vladimir
OSVRT NA PROBLEMATIKU KATEGORIZACIJE STANOVNITVA PREMA TIPU NASELJA U
JUGOSLOVENSKOJ STATISTIKOJ PRAKSI
195-202
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/1999
godina XXXVII
Todorovi, Marina
VLASINSKI SUSRETI
203-206
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2000
godina XXXVIII
Sardon, Jean-Paul
PREVISIONS DE MORTALIT ET VIEILLISSEMENT DMOGRAPHIQUE
PREDVIDJANJE MORTALITETA I DEMOGRAFSKO STARENJE
MORTALITY PREDICTION AND DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING
7-28
M.c.: mortalit, previsions mortalit, esprance de vie, vieillissement dmographique
K.r.: mortalitet, predvidjanje mortaliteta, oekivano trajanje ivota, demografsko starenje
K.w.: mortality, mortality prediction, life expectancy, demographic ageing
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Le recul, acclr depuis 1970, de la mortalit aux ges levs, facteur dterminant de la monte actuelle du vieillissement, donne
une acuit nouvelle lanalyse des variations, probables et possibles, attendre de la mortalit. Les effectifs, projets, de la
population ge sont, en effet, trs sensibles aux choix faits en matire dvolution de la mortalit. La confrontation des hypothses
de mortalit, utilises dans les projections, aux ralisations, pour le pass rcent, montre quun certain pessimisme a toujours prvalu
dans les projections, ce qui conduit actuellement plus de hardiesse. Mais la croissance actuelle de lesprance de vie, en particulier
aux ges levs, peut-elle continuer ce rythme ou tendra-t-elle, mais quelle chance, vers un maximum: la limite biologique de la
vie humaine? Pour certains experts, nous approcherions dj des limites effectives de la longvit moyenne humaine, tandis que pour
dautres les progrs scientifiques permettront de reculer largement le seuil de 85 ans fix par les premiers. Lamlioration de la
comprhension du processus multifactoriel du vieillissement apportera des lments ce dbat, mais il ne faut pas ngliger pour
autant les freins conomiques, sociaux et comportement aux au recul de la mortalit. Quoi quil en soit, et quelle que soit la limite
que lon assigne au groupe des personnes ges, fonde sur un ge invariant ou fonde sur un ge variable, choisi en fonction dune
esprance de vie restante fixe, il faut sattendre une forte acclration du vieillissement.
Starost umrlih lica znatno se poveala od 1970. godine. Razlog je uglavnom brzo smanjenje stopa smrtnosti kod starih lica, to daje
novu dimenziju analizi verovatnih i moguih varijacija u smrtnosti stanovnitva. Predvidjanje broja starih lica vrlo mnogo zavisi od
izbora modela smrtnosti za budui period. Poredjenje rezultata predvidjanja i skoranjih, stvarnih trendova u smrtnosti stanovnitva
ukazuje na izvestan pesimizam kod prvih, to ohrabruje budui rad na predvidjanjima. Medjutim, pitanje je moe li sadanji porast
trajanja ivota, posebno za starija godita, nastaviti istim tempom ili e dostii svoj zenit (bioloku granicu ljudskog ivota) i kada?
Po nekim autorima ve su dostignute granice prosenog trajanja ljudskog ivota na nivou od 85 godina, dok drugi veruju u nauni
progres koji e omoguiti njegovo dalje poveanje. Bolje razumevanje sloenog procesa starenja podstai e diskusiju koja ne bi
trebalo da zaobidje ni ogranienja daljem poveanju trajanja ivota ekonomska, socijalna i ogranienja u vezi ponaanja. Ipak, kolika
god da je granica, bilo fiksirane ili promenljive starosti, na osnovu koje se definie staro stanovnitvo, moe se oekivati otar porast
starih lica.
Since 1970 age at death has much increased. This is greatly due to quick diminishing of old age mortality rates and sheds a new light
on the analysis of the probable and possible variations to be expected regarding mortality. Projected numbers of elderly people
depend a great deal on the choices made regarding future mortality. When comparing forecasted hypothetical mortality with recent
actual achievements it is obvious that a certain amount of pessimism prevails in the forecasts. This prompts us to show greater
boldness when forecasting. However, will the present rise in life expectancy, especially at higher ages, continue at the same pace or
will it tend to reach its zenith (the biological limit of human life) and when? According to some experts, we are already approaching
the limits of average human longevity, whereas for others, scientific progress will amply enable us to push back the age of 85 years
determined by the former group. Improvement in the understanding of the multifactorial process of ageing will feed the debate but
the economic, social and behavioural constraints of lengthning life spans should not be overlooked. Nevertheless and whatever age
limit is set to define elderly people, based on a fixed or a varying age, as the age at which remaining life expectancy is constant, a
sharp increase in numbers of elderly people is to be expected.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2000
godina XXXVIII
Bellis, Gil, Alain Parant
ALLONGEMENT DE LA VIE ET CONTRIBUTION ACCRUE DES DCS DORIGINE GNTIQUE
PRODUENJE TRAJANJA IVOTA I DOPRINOS PORASTU SMRTI GENETSKOG POREKLA
EXTENSION OF LIFE EXPECTANCY AND CONTRIBUTION TO THE INCREASE OF DEATH OF GENETIC
ORIGIN
29-40
M.c.: mortalit, lesprance de vie, maladies gntiques, la maladie de Huntington
K.r.: mortalitet, oekivano trajanje ivota, genetske bolesti, Huntington-ova bolest
K.w.: mortality, life expectancy, genetic diseases, Huntington disease
Dans cet article sont examines les consquences du vieillissement humain sur la frquence dapparition des maladies gntiques.
En sappuyant, dune part, sur les donnes et projections dmographiques tablies pour la France, et, dautre part, sur une maladie
gntique apparition tardive - la maladie de Huntington - on essaie dvaluer laugmentation du nombre de malades jusquen 2020.
Compte tenu de la frquence du gne responsable de cette pathologie, lallongement du calendrier de la mortalit induira une
augmentation significative du nombre de personnes atteintes. A fortiori dans le contexte darrive des gnrations nombreuses du
Bb-boum dans les ges de la vieillesse.
Le vieillissement contribue lapparition de maladies caractre endogne qui ont souvent la particularit dtre fortement
invalidantes.
Cilj rada je da se izue posledice ljudskog starenja na uestalost bolesti genetskog porekla.
Na primeru Huntington bolesti ocenjuje se oekivano poveanje broja obolelih u Francuskoj do 2020. godine, na osnovu podataka i
demografskih projekcija. Zbog uestalosti gena odgovornog za posebnu patologiju ovog oboljenja, oekuje se da e broj obolelih
rasti uporedo sa poboljanjem zdravlja i porastom starog stanovnitva.
Proces starenja stanovnitva je izgleda odgovoran za pojavljivanje endogenih bolesti, koje esto dovode do invalidnosti.
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the consequences of the human ageing on the frequency of genetic diseases.
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Taking the exemple of the Huntington disease, we try to evaluate the expected increase in the number of persons affected in France,
until the year 2020, based on demographic data and population projections. Because of the frequency of the gene responsible of this
particular pathology, the number of cases is expected to raise according to increase in health expectancy and the future growth of
aged population.
Population ageing seems responsible of the appearance of endogenous diseases which are often provoking invalidity.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2000
godina XXXVIII
Bergouignan, Christophe
LA DEPENDANCE DES PERSONNES AGEES. APPROCHE LONGITUDINALE DES RISQUES
ZAVISNOST KOD STARIH LICA. LONGITUDINALNI PRISTUP RIZICIMA
ELDERLY DEPENDENCE. LONGITUDINAL APPROACH TO RISK FACTORS
41-58
M.c.: personnes ges, dpendance, responsibilit et soigne, approche longitudinale
K.r.: stara lica, zavisnost, odgovornost i briga, longitudinalni pristup
K.w.: elderly, dependence, responsibility and care, longitudinal approach
Lvolution de la dpendance chez la personne ge se constitue densembles de squences, dont la ralisation est fonction des
conditions de vie et de leurs modifications ventuelles.
Cette approche globale et longitudinale aboutit une suite de risques conditionnels. Leur ampleur varie selon certains vnements
dterminants, et certaines variables de rpartition stables partir de 65 ans.
Parmi ces vnements supposs dterminants, on considre certains comme endognes (les tapes dvolution de la dpendance, par
exemple) puisque le risque de leur ralisation saccrot avec la ralisation dun vnement tudi antrieur, et dautres comme
exognes (les transformations de ltat matrimonial, par exemple) car leur probabilit de survenue est a priori indpendante de la
survenue dun vnement tudi antrieur. De la sorte tout phnomne exogne est suppos facteur de risque dun phnomne
endogne, de mme quelques phnomnes endognes sont facteurs de risque supposs dautres phnomnes endognes.
On conoit donc un systme dans lequel ralisation et ampleur des risques entrent dans une rsonance dynamique faisant voluer les
sujets vers les tats de dpendance les plus lourds. La croissance concomitante des vulnrabilits et des dpendances est ainsi
modlise en tenant compte des prises en charge dont ladquation aux besoins est value laune de leur caractre modrateur.
La mise en oeuvre des principes danalyse dmographique permet dans ce contexte de constituer un rseau de tables de probabilits
embotes en fonction de la dure coule depuis la survenue des diffrents vnements exognes ou endognes tudis et des
ventuelles prises en charge. La subdivision selon les variables exognes stables aux grands ges permet, de plus, lobtention des
cohortes les plus homognes possibles.
La dfinition des donnes ncessaires ce travail est discute en fonction des impratifs de rigueur, du dlai de production des
rsultats, de la permanence des outils dobservation et des cots de collecte. On examine ainsi les qualits des diffrentes formes
denqutes envisageables (prospective ou rtrospective) et la base de sondage utilisable. De mme on considre les voies dutilisation
possibles de larges bases de donnes administratives et les conditions dune extrapolation fiable des rsultats au del de la souspopulation ge rpertorie par ces fichiers. On en dduit alors certains critres de conception de systmes dinformations sur la
dpendance des personnes ges et ses facteurs.
Razvoj zavisnosti kod starih lica moe se posmatrati kao jedinstvo nizova dogadjaja.
Ovaj globalni i longitudinalni pristup rezultira u niz uslovnih rizika. Njihova veliina varira u zavisnosti od nekih osnovnih dogadjaja
i nekih varijabli ija vrednost ostaje stabilna posle 65 godina starosti.
Neki od osnovnih dogadjaja oznaeni su kao endogeni (na primer etape u razvoju zavisnosti), jer verovatnoa njihovih realizacija
raste sa realizacijom nekog ranije prouavanog dogadjaja. Drugi dogadjaji su egzogeni (transformacije branog statusa), poto je
verovatnoa njihovih dogadjanja a priori nezavisna od nekog ranije prouavanog dogadjaja. Na taj nain, pretpostavka je da su svi
egzogeni fenomeni faktori rizika za endogene, kao to su i neki od endogenih, faktori rizika za druge endogene fenomene.
Formira se sistem u kome skale rizika i njihove realizacije ulaze u jednu dinamiku rezonancu, dovodei stara lica do najvee
zavisnosti. Propratni porast povredivosti i zavisnosti se takodje modelira vodei rauna o adekvatnosti potreba i evaluirati ih prema
njihovom izmenjenom karakteru.
Primena principa demografske analize omoguava da se izgradi sistem tablica kumulativnih verovatnoa, koje su funkcije protoka
vremena poto su se egzogeni ili endogeni prouavani dogadjaji i mogua zbrinutost ostvarili.
Odredjivanje neophodnih podataka za potrebe ovog rada sagledavano je iz ugla neophodne tanosti, roka dobijanja rezultata, stalnog
posmatranja i trokova njihovog prikupljanja. Ispituje se takodje i kvalitet razliitih formi sprovedenih anketa (prospektivnih ili
retrospektivnih) i baza korisnih ispitivanja. Isto tako se razmatra korienje baza podataka administracije i uslovi za ekstrapolaciju
izvan starog stanovnitva registrovanog u ovim kartotekama. Predlau se, dakle, izvesni kriterijumi za formiranje informacionih
sistema o zavisnosti starih lica i njenih faktora.
The evolution of elderly dependence may be seen as a bunch of events sequences.
This global approach by cohort, leads to a chain of conditionnal risks. Their scale is function of some main events and several
variables which value is stable after 65 years old.
Some of those main events are called endogeneous (steps of dependence evolution for example) because the probability of their
occurrence grows with the occurrence of an earlier studied event and some others are called exogeneous (transformations of
matrimonial status for example) because the probability of their occurrence is a priori independent of an earlier studied event. In that
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way, all exogeneous phenomenon is supposed to be risk factor to an endogeneous phenomenon, and several endogeneous phenomena
are supposed to be risk factors to other endogeneous phenomena.
The suggested system forms a dynamic resonance between risks scale and their realization, leading elderly to the largest dependence.
The associated growth of vulnerability and dependence is patterned considering all cares which adequation is estimated with their
ability to curb the autonomy loss process.
Demographic analysis toolkits are a way to build a network of stacked probabilities tables which are functions of time flown since
exogeneous or endogeneous studied events and potential cares have occured. The subdivision of cohorts along exogeneous variables
which value is stable after 65 years old, gives them the best homogeneity attainable.
The determination of datas required for this work is disputed considering the essential exactness, the delay before the first results, the
continuously of observation and the costs of collection. Qualities of the different type of surveys conceivables (retrospective or
prospective) and their sample base are examinated. Abilities of the use of large admistration data bases and the conditions for
extrapolations beyond the population of aged registred in those files, are also considered. Then some criteria to form information
systems about elderly dependence and its factors are suggested.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2000
godina XXXVIII
Mijatovi, Boko
O MIKROEKONOMSKOJ TEORIJI FERTILITETA
ON MICROECONOMIC THEORY OF FERTILITY
59-78
K.r.: fertilitet, mikroekonomska teorija fertiliteta
K.w.: fertility, microeconomic theory of fertility
U tekstu je dat pregled mikroekonomske teorije fertiliteta u tradiciji Gerija Bekera. U prvom delu je prezentovan statistiki model, u
drugom dinamiki, a u treem je bilo rei o odluivanju unutar porodice na osnovu teorije igara.
Mikroekonomska teorija fertiliteta nudi doprinos razumevanju fertiliteta na dva naina: prvi je teorijsko-metodoloki stav da je
radjanje ishod odluivanja na nivou pojedinaca, uz njihovo maksimizaciono ponaanje; drugi je ukljuenje ekonomskih varijabli
medju inioce koji objanjavaju radjanje.
Ekonomisti duboko veruju da je individualistiko, racionalno i maksimizaciono ponaanje poojedinca nezaobilazna osnova za
razmatranje ljudskih akcija i da je to metodoloki pristup koji je superioran alternativnim. Taj pristup socijalnim fenomenima, a bez
redukovanja sloenih motiva pojedinca (i porodica, na iskljuivo ekonomske) nailazi na irok odjek u drugim drutvenim naukama,
medju njima i u demografiji. I ne radi se samo o tehnikoj, formalnoj eleganciji doteranosti pristupa, ve i u snanim uvidima u
stvarno ponaanje ljudi.
Sa druge strane, snaga ekonomskih inilaca na radjanje uvek je podlona diskusiji, kao i svako drugo empirijsko pitanje. Taj uticaj
svakako postoji, a ekonomisti su, moda, skloni da mu pripiu vei znaaj nego to je realno.
A review of the microeconomic theory of fertility according to the tradition of Gary Becker is given in the text. The static model is
presented in the first part, the dynamic in the second, and the third part deals with decision making within the family on the basis of
the theory of games.
The microeconomic theory of fertility offers a contribution to the understanding of fertility in two ways: the first is the theoreticalmethodological standpoint that birth is the outcome of decision making on the level of the individual, along with their
maximizational behavior; the second is the involvement of economic variables among the factors which explain births.
Economists deeply believe that individualistic, rational and maximizational behavior of the individual is an imperative basis for
considering human reactions and that it is a methodological approach which is superior to the alternative. This approach to social
phenomena, without reducing complex motives of the individual (and family, to exclusively economic ones) finds a wide response in
other social sciences, among them and in demography. Not only is the technical, formal elegancy and refined approach in question,
but also strong insights into the real behavior of people.
On the other hand, the strength of the influences of economic factors on birth is always susceptible to discussions, just as any other
empirical question. This influence certainly exists, and economists are, perhaps inclined to impute greater significance to it than what
is realistic.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2000
godina XXXVIII
Gavrilovi, Ana
ULOGA LOKALNE SAMOUPRAVE U OSTVARIVANJU SISTEMA DRUTVENE BRIGE O DECI
THE ROLE OF LOCAL SELF-MANAGEMENT IN THE REALIZATION OF THE SYSTEM OF SOCIAL CARE
OF CHILDREN
79-92
K.r.: lokalna samouprava, sistem drutvene brige o deci, predkolske ustanove
K.w.: local self-management, system of social care of children, preschool institutions
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Lokalna samouprava, u savremenom znaenju, nastala je u vremenu stvaranja moderne drave, na prelasku od feudalizma u
kapitalizam. U XIX i XX veku lokalna samouprava, pre svega u Evropi, postaje deo jedinstvenog sistema dravne vlasti koji ima
sledee karakteristike: postojanje ue teritorije, organizacionu samostalnost lokalnih institucija, postojanje odredjene finansijske i
normativne samostalnosti i pravo gradjana da u njoj slobodno biraju predstavniko telo ili da neposredno odluuju o bitnim pitanjima
od interesa za lokalnu zajednicu.
Razvoj lokalne samouprave u nas ima svoje korene jo u vreme turske vladavine i to u postojanju kneevina, krajem XVIII veka. U
modernom vremenu, Ustavom Republike Srbije iz 1990. godine uspostavljena je jednostepena lokalna samouprava i u okviru nje
posebna reenja za gradove. Optina je osnovna jedinica lokalne samouprave u Srbiji koja ima dve vrste nadlenosti: samoupravnu ili
izvornu i prenetu ili decentralizovanu.
Sistem drutvene brige o deci, kojim se ostvaruju odredjeni ciljevi socijalne i populacione politike drave, poznaje dve vrste poslova
koje lokalna samouprava moe obavljati: izvorne i poverene. Izvorni poslovi odnose se na ustanove za decu - predkolske ustanove i
deja odmaralita nad kojima lokalna samouprava ima sva osnivaka prava. Povereni poslovi lokalne samouprave su odluivanje, u
prvom stepenu, o pravima gradjana koja imaju karakter prava od opteg interesa. U vrenju svojih izvornih i poverenih poslova i
ovlaenja, lokalna samouprava uvaava Zakonom o drutvenoj brizi o deci i podzakonskim aktima propisane norme i standarde za
obavljanje delatnosti ustanova za decu i ostvarivanje prava gradjana.
Pored izvornih i poverenih poslova, lokalna samouprava ima pravo, prema Zakonu o drutvenoj brizi o deci, da utvrdjuje i druga
prava u sistemu drutvene brige o deci, vei obim prava i povoljnije uslove za ostvarivanje prava, kao i druge oblike drutvene brige
o deci, ako za to obezbedi sredstva. Medjutim, ova postavka se teko ostvaruje, zbog nedostatka sredstava kao i odgovarajue
organizacije i kompetentnog strunog rada.
Local self-management, in its contemporary meaning, arose in the time modern state was created, at the transition from feudalism
into capitalism. In the nineteenth and twentieth century, local self-management, in Europe above all, became a part of the uniform
system of state government which had the following characteristics: the existence of proper territories, organizational independence
of local institutions, the existence of certain financial and normative independence and the rights of citizens to freely choose in it a
representative body or to directly decide on important matters of interest for the local community.
The development of local self-management in our country has its roots as early as the Turkish rule, in the existence of principalities,
at the end of the eighteenth century. In modern times, by the Constitution of the Republic of Serbia from 1990, a single-level local
self-management was established and within it special decisions for cities. The district is the basic unit of local self-management in
Serbia which has two kinds of jurisdiction: self-management or authentic and transferred or decentralized.
The system of social care of children, by which certain goals of social and population policy of the state are achieved, recognizes two
kinds of affairs which local self-management can carry out: authentic and entrusted. Authentic affairs refer to the institutions for
children - preschool institutions and childrens recreation centers over which local self-management has all foundation rights.
Entrusted affairs of local self-management are making decisions, in the first degree, on the rights of citizens which has the
characteristic of rights of general interest. In the carrying out of its authentic and entrusted affairs and authorities, local selfmanagement takes into consideration, through the Law on social care of children and sublaw acts, the regulated norms and standards
for carrying out the activities of childrens institutions and realizing the rights of citizens.
Apart from authentic and entrusted affairs, local self-management has the right, according to the Law on social care of children, to
determine other rights as well in the system of social care of children, a greater scope of rights and more favorable terms for
realization of rights, as well as other forms of social care of children, if it provides the funds. However, this supposition can hardly be
realized, due to insufficiency of funds as well as adequate organization and competent expert work.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2000
godina XXXVIII
Raievi, Boidar, Brankica Gagi, Danijel Panti
SISTEM I POLITIKA JAVNIH PRIHODA U SRBIJI U FUNKCIJI DEMOGRAFSKE POLITIKE: MOGUNOSTI I
DOMETI KRITIKI OSVRT
SYSTEM AND POLICY OF PUBLIC REVENUES IN SERBIA IN THE FUNCTION OF DEMOGRAPHIC
POLICY: POSSIBILITIES AND RANGES - REVIEW
93-118
K.r.: poreski sistem, fiskalna politika, populaciona politika
K.w.: tax system, fiscal policy, population policy
U radu se analiziraju mogunosti primene reenja sistema i politike poreza u Srbiji u ostvarivanju ciljeva populaciine politike.
Osnovni je stav da su mogunosti veoma skromne. Naime, u Srbiji je ve nekoliko godina u primeni savremeni sistem direktnog
oporezivanja dohotka graana, dobiti preduzea i imovine kao i delimino reformisani sistem oporezivanja prometa proizvoda i
usluga. Znaajne mogunosti za ostvarivanje ciljeva poulacione politike u Srbiji postoje primenom reenja kod poreza na dohodak
graana. Meutim, u radu se navodi da se usvojena reenja ne primenjuju. Reenja koja prua porez na dobit preduzea su relativno
skomna i mahom indirektna. Kod poreza na imovinu i kod poreza na promet proizvoda i usluga reenja takoe imaju skroman
praktian znaaj u ostvarivanju ciljeva populacine politike. Na kraju rada autori su pruili brojne konkretne predloge primene reenja
kod navedenih poreskih oblika kako bi se poveala njihova praktina upotrebljivost u ostvarivanju ciljeva populacione politike.
In this paper, possibilities of application of the system and policy of public revenues in Serbia have been analyzed. The basic finding
is that these possibilities are fairly modest. Already for several years, modern system of direct taxation of personal income and
property, corporate income, as well as, partly reformed system of sales tax has been in use, in Serbia. Significant opportunities for
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achievement of goals of the demographic policy exist in the proper implementation of the personal income tax, which has not been
the case in practice. Potential solutions in the domain of the corporate income tax are relatively modest and indirect. Property
taxation and sales tax have modest impact at the demographic policy as well. In the policy recommendations, authors have tried to
offer practical solutions for the future reshaping of the taxes in order to increase their practical implementation level in achieving the
goals of the demographic policy.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2000
godina XXXVIII
Milankovi, Jasna
RETROSPEKTIVNA ANALIZA PERINATALNOG MORTALITETA U BEOGRADU 1996. GODINE
RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF PERINATAL MORTALITY IN BELGRADE IN 1996
119-150
K.r.: perinatalni mortalitet, mortalitet odojadi, uzroci smrti
K.w.: perinatal mortality, mortality of newborns, cause of death
Postavljenim hipotezama i iznetim rezultatima statistike analize pokualo se odgovoriti na pitanje to jo moe da se uini u naoj
zemlji, posebno u zdravstvenom sektoru na smanjenju perinatalnog mortaliteta, kako bi se dostigao nivo koji ve imaju razvijene
zemlje severozapadne Evrope. Na osnovu podataka zvanine statistike, u Beogradu je i dalje nedovoljna saradnja izmedju slubi u
istoj zdravstvenoj ustanovi, kao i izmedju pojedinih nivoa zdravstvene zatite, bez odgovarajueg prenosa informacija o porodilji,
odnosno novorodjenetu (trudnika knjiica). Prisutna je neujednaenost u stepenu opremljenosti i nedovoljno korienje genetskih
savetovalita. Oko 62% trudnica se prvi put javlja u savetovalite za trudnice u prvom trimestru, to je nedovoljno. Trebalo bi postii
ujednaavanje primene doktrinarnih stavova, posebno u dijagnostici riziko-faktora i obezbedjenje odgovarajue medicinske
dokumentacije za prenos informacija o toku trudnoe, porodjaju i stanju novorodjeneta. U okviru toga neophodno je ubudue
kontinuirano struno usavravanje zdravstvenih radnika, a u organizaciji referentne ustanove.
Rezultati istraivanja biolokih varijabli porodilja, kao to je prosena starost, paritet, abortus i oboljenje u njenoj reproduktivnoj
istoriji, kao i najee komplikacije u toku porodjaja, pokazali su da nema znaajnijeg odstupanja to se tie ovog faktora rizika
unutar kontrolne i rizine grupe. Navedeni podaci pokazali su da je u rizinoj grupi bilo neto vie prvorotki, to moe predstavljati
poveani faktor rizika za ishod porodjaja, dok je drugorotki bilo za gotovo isti procenat manje nego u kontrolnoj grupi. Sa druge
strane, u uzorku je bilo manje ena koje su prethodno imale abortus.
Bioloke varijable novorodjenadi pokazale su da je u rizinoj grupi od ukupno umrle odojadi 41,6% je mrtvorodjeno, a 57,3% je
umrlo tokom prve nedelje, odnosno 22,6% tokom prvog dana ivota. Odnos polova bio je gotovo identian: 44,8% umrle odojadi je
mukog pola, 44,4% enskog. U prvih dvadeset etiri asa, odnosno u prvih pet asova po rodjenju, bio je vei mortalitet muke
odojadi i to za oko 10%. Mortalitet enske odojadi vei je u drugom danu ivota i to za oko 7% od mortaliteta muke odojadi iste
starosti.
Ve po prijemu u porodilite, kod ovih porodjaja zabeleeno je normalno stanje ploda samo u treini sluajeva, dok je kod dve
treine ili ve nastupila smrt ili je bila prisutna patnja ploda. Pre termina rodjeno je ak 198 ili 71% odojadi. Nije zabeleen nijedan
porodjaj posle termina. Kod 3,9% odojadi izmerena je teina do 499 g, ak 29,4% imalo je izuzetno malu teinu (500-999 g), a jo
20,8% malu teinu pri rodjenju (1000-1499 g). U 19,4% sluajeva bila je u pitanju potpuna nezrelost ploda, dok je u 60,6% sluajeva
porodjaj nastupio u starosti 28-36 gestacijskih nedelja.
Ve u prvom minutu po rodjenju ivot je bio ugroen kod preko 60% ivorodjene dece (nizak apgar scor). Preko polovine odojadi
koja su dobila ocenu jedan ili dva u prvom minutu po rodjenju, umrla su u toku prva sedamdeset dva sata ivota. Najkritiniji su bili
prvih pet sati po rodjenju, kao i drugi dan ivota.
Poznavanje uzroka seminatalne smrtnosti u Beogradu predstavlja, takodje, osnov za dalje programiranje zdravstvene zatite majke i
deteta na nivou grada. Dominantan uzrok mortaliteta je teka asfiksija (60%). U 13,8% sluajeva uzrok smrti je registrovan kao
neoznaeni ili nepoznat, tako da je na drugom mestu po intenzitetu prisutan respiratorni distres (6,9%).
Kod seminatalnog mortaliteta viestruki porodjaji bili su prisutni u 26,9% sluajeva. Veina porodjaja zavrena je "normalnim"
poloajem ploda dok je 15,1% porodjaja bilo karlino, a 17,3% ih je zavreno nekom od tehnika porodiljske operacije.
Through the set hypotheses and presented results of statistical analysis it was attempted to answer the question of what more could be
done in our country, especially in the health sector, to decrease perinatal mortality, so as to achieve the level which some northwest
European countries already have.
On the basis of data of official statistics, there is still insufficient cooperation in Belgrade between departments in the same health
institution, as well as between certain levels of health care, without appropriate transfer of information on the women who have just
given birth, namely the new-born (pregnancy card). A lack of uniformity in the level of equipment and insufficient usage of genetic
counseling offices is present. About 62% of pregnant women reports to the counseling offices for pregnant women for the first time
in the first trimester, which is not sufficient. The standardization of the application of doctrinal standpoints should be achieved,
especially in the diagnosis of risk factors and the provision of adequate medical documentation for transfer of information during
pregnancy, labor and the condition of the newborn. Within that, it is necessary to continually provide expert advanced training of
health workers in the future, in the organization of the relevant institution.
The research results of biological variables of women who have just given birth, such as average age, parity, abortion and illness in
her reproductive history, as well as the most common complications during delivery, showed that no significant deviation as regards
this risk factor within control and risk groups. The stated data indicated that in the risk group there were somewhat more primipara,
which might present an increased factor of risk for the outcome of the delivery, while there were almost the same percentage less
than in the control group of the women who bore their second child. On the other hand, there were less women who previously had
an abortion in the sample.
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Biological variables of newborns showed that in the risk group, out of the total infant deaths, 41.6% were stillborn, and 57.3% died
during the first week, namely 22.6% during the first day of life. The ratio between sexes was almost identical: 44.8% of dead
newborns were male and 44.4% were female sex. In the first twenty-four hours, namely in the first five hours upon birth, the
mortality of male newborns was greater by about 10%. The mortality of female newborns was greater in the second day of life, by
about 7% of the mortality of the male newborns of the same age.
Upon reception into the maternity hospital already, normal state of the fetus was noted in only one third of the cases with these
deliveries, while in two thirds death had already occurred or suffering of the fetus was present. As many as 198 or 71% of newborns
were prematurely delivered. Not a single delivery was noted after term. 3.9% of the newborns had weight upto 499 grams, as many
as 29.4% had exceptionally small weight (500-999 g), and another 20.8% small weight at birth (1000-1499 g). In 19.4% cases, the
fetus was completely immature, while in 60.6% of the cases the delivery came between the 28th and 36th gestation weeks.
As early as the first minute of birth, the lives of over 60% of the liveborn children were endangered (low apgar score). Over one half
of the newborns which received the mark one or two in the first minute upon birth, died in the first seventy-two hours of life. The
most critical were the first five hours upon birth, as well as the second day of life.
The knowledge of the samples of seminatal mortality in Belgrade also represents a basis for further programming of health care for
the mother and child on the city level. A dominant mortality sample is severe asphyxia (60%). In 13.8% of the cases, the cause of
death is registered as unmarked or unknown, so the second place according to intensity is present as respiratory distress (6.9%).
Multiple deliveries with seminatal mortality were present in 26.9% cases. Most of the deliveries were carried out with the "normal"
position of the fetus, while 15.1% of the deliveries were pelvic, and 17.3% were carried out by some childbearing operation
technique.
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/2000
godina XXXVIII
Zoran Avramovi
POPULACIONA POLITIKA U SREDNJOKOLSKIM UDBENICIMA
151-165
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/2000
godina XXXVIII
Raevi, Mirjana
SASTANAK UJEDINJENIH NACIJA "ODNOS IZMEDJU GENERACIJA I ODNOS IZMEDJU ENE I
MUKARCA: ISTRAIVANJE NJIHOVOG PONAANJA I KVALITETA IVOTA", ENEVA, 35. JUL 2000.
165-169
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/2000
godina XXXVIII
Penev, Goran
MEDJUNARODNA KONFERENCIJA "PROMENE TOKOM 1990-IH I DEMOGRAFSKA BUDUCNOST
BALKANA", SARAJEVO, 1013. MAJ 2000.
169-173
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/2000
godina XXXVIII
Raevi, Mirjana
EVROPSKA POPULACIONA KONFERENCIJA "JEDINSTVO U RAZLIITOSTI", HAG, 30. AVGUST3.
SEPTEMBAR 1999.
173-178
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/2000
godina XXXVIII
Marjanovi, Milo
MILOVAN MITROVI: "SRPSKO SELO. PRILOG SOCIOLOGIJI TRADICIONALNOG SRPSKOG DRUTVA"
179-185
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/2000
godina XXXVIII
Bubalo, Milka
ZBORNIK MATICE SRPSKE ZA DRUTVENE NAUKE "SIMPOZIJUM O DEMOGRAFSKOM RAZVOJU
VOJVODINE"
185-188
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/2000
godina XXXVIII
Bobi, Mirjana
MIRJANA RAEVI (ur.) "ENA I RADJANJE NA KOSOVU I METOHIJI"
188-194
asopis Stanovnitvo
statistiki prilog
broj 1-4/2000
godina XXXVIII
Penev, Goran
OSNOVNI DEMOGRAFSKI POKAZATELJI ZA EVROPSKE ZEMLJE (ZA 1990. I 1997. GODINU)
195-200
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2001
godina XXXIX
Kotzamanis, Byron
RAZVITAK STANOVNITVA I DEMOGRAFSKE PERSPEKTIVE JUGOISTONE EVROPE
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND POPULATION PROSPECTS IN SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
7-44
K.r.: Balkan, demografski razvitak, tranzicija, demografske projekcije
K.w.: Balkans, demographic trends, transition, demographic projections
Tri osnovna pitanja su u ii interesovanja savremene demografije: a) Da li se geopolitiki region jugoistone Evrope, na osnovu
reproduktivnog ponaanja, sa evropskog makroregionalnog aspekta, moe posmatrati kao jedinstvena celina koja je jasno
izdiferencirana od ostatka Evrope? b) Da li se nedavne demografske promene u bivim socijalistickim zemljama jugoistocne
Evrope mogu tretirati kao nastavak dugoronih tendencija ili/i su rezultat tektonskih politikih i drutveno-ekonomskih promena kao
i tekoa kojima je tokom trazicionog perioda izloeno stanovnitvo? c) Kakve su demografske perspektive ovih zemalja i koje su
njihove direktne i indirektne posledice?
Autor nema aspiracije da prui odgovore na sva spomenuta pitanja. Prvenstveno, u lanku je dat sintezni prikaz posleratnih
demografskih tendencija (indirektno dajui odgovor na pitanje o postojanju, odnosno nepostojanju demografskog profila Balkana).
Zatim, panja je usredsredjena na oekivane budue demografske promene u balkanskim zemljama, kao i na probleme koje e one,
na putu ka trinoj ekonomiji s jedne strane, izazvati na tritu radne snage, a s druge strane, na intenzitet migracionih pritisaka koje
ove zemlje mogu vriti na zemlje Evropske unije.
Three basic questions are under consideration in todays demographic community: a) the European geography of demographic
behaviors allows us to consider the geopolitical area of S.E. Europe as uniform and clearly distinguished from the rest of Europe, b)
to what extent the observed recent evolutions in the ex "socialist" S.E. European countries are registered in the long term or/and have
been affected by the seismic policies and socio-economic changes as well as the consequent difficulties the inhabitants of these
countries meet during the transition period and finally c) the demographic perspectives of these countries and their direct and indirect
implications.
In this article we do not aspire to give answers to all of the above questions. Initially, we confined ourselves to a synthetic
presentation of post-war demographic evolutions (giving indirectly an answer to the question of the existence or non-existence of a
demographic profile of the Balkans). Then we focused our attention to the expected demographic trends and the problems they raise
on the one hand, to the labor market of these countries on their course to free market, and on the other hand, to the migration
pressures these countries might bring upon the neighboring E.C. countries.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2001
godina XXXIX
Penev, Goran
ZAMENA GENERACIJA U SRBIJI U PERIODU 1950-2000.
THE REPLACEMENT OF GENERATIONS IN SERBIA IN THE PERIOD 1950-2000
45-72
K.r.: zamena generacija, transverzalna analiza, kohortna analiza, zavrni fertilitet, kohortne tablice mortaliteta
K.w.: replacement of generations, period analysis, cohort analysis, completed cohort fertility, generation life table
U radu je razmatrano pitanje zamene generacija u Srbiju,vanost neposrednih determinati i njena dinamika u drugoj polovini 20.
veka. Ukazano je i na znaajne regionalne razlike koje su prisutne u domenu reprodukcije stanovnitva izmedju pojedinih velikih
podruja Srbije (Centralna Srbija, Vojvodina i Kosovo i Metohija).
Primenjena su dva metoda demografske analize: transverzalni i longitudinalni. Prikazani su osnovni indikatori, definicije i
ogranienja oba pristupa. Rezultati transverzalne analize ukazuju da je sve do 1988. godine (s izuzetkom 1957. i 1981) fertilitet u
Srbiji stalno bio iznad nivoa koji je obezbedjivao prostu reprodukciju stanovnitva. Poev od 1989. godine u Srbiji je neto stopa
reprodukcije neprestano ispod jedinice. U Centralnoj Srbiji i Vojvodini prosta reprodukcija se ne ostvaruje due od 45 godina (poev
od 1956). Potpuno drugaija situacija je na Kosovu i Metohiji gde je fertilitet tokom itave druge polovine 20. veka stalno iznad
nivoa potrebnog za prostu reprodukciju. Primena longitudinalne analize na primeru est izabranih generacija (ene rodjene 1950,
1955, 1960, 1965, 1970. i 1975) ukazuje da su u Srbiji samo ene rodjene 1960. godine obezbedile zamenu svoje generacije (pri
ivorodjenju). U Centralnoj Srbiji i Vojvodini to nije uspela nijedna od posmatranih generacija, dok su na Kosovu i Metohiji to
uspele sve generacije.
The article deals with the replacement of generations in Serbia, its dynamics in the second half of the 20th century, and the
importance of direct determinants. It points to the major regional differences in the domain of the population reproduction among the
large areas of Serbia (Central Serbia, Vojvodina, and Kosovo-Metohija).
Two approaches of demographic analysis were applied: period and cohort analysis. Basic indicators, definitions, and shortcomings
were presented. The results of the period analysis indicate that up until 1988 (with the exceptions of 1957 and 1981), the fertility in
Serbia constantly reached a level of fertility necessary to ensure the replacement. Since 1989, the net reproduction rate has constantly
been below unity. In Central Serbia and Vojvodina, the population has not been reproducing itself for more than 45 years (since
1956). The situation has been completely different in Kosovo-Metohija, where fertility has been above the level necessary to ensure
reproduction during the entire second half of 20th century. The cohort analysis applied to six chosen generations (birth cohort of
1950, 1955, 1960, 1965, 1970, and 1975) indicates that in Serbia, only women born in 1960 ensured the replacement. In Central
Serbia and Vojvodina, none of the studied generations succeeded in ensuring the replacement, while in Kosovo-Metohija all
generations did.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2001
godina XXXIX
Raevi, Mirjana
REPRODUKTIVNO ZDRAVLJE STANOVNITVA CRNE GORE. REZULTATI ANKETNOG ISTRAIVANJA
REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH OF THE POPULATION OF MONTENEGRO. SURVEY RESEARCH RESULTS
73-90
K.r.: reproduktivno zdravlje, Crna Gora
K.w.: reproductive health, Montenegro
Rezultati reprezentativnog istraivanja sprovedenog 2001. godine - obuhvatilo je 1000 ena starosti izmedju 20 i 39 godina - su
potvrdili da je glavni problem reproduktivnog zdravlja stanovnitva Crne Gore rasprostranjenost konzervativne kontrole radjanja u
kojoj dominira coitus interruptus i posledino u sluaju kada se trudnoa ne eli ili ne moe prihvatiti pribegavanje namernom
prekidu trudnoe. Tradicionalna sredstva i metode su u velikoj meri inkorporirani u sistem vrednosti, prirodni su deo seksualnog
odnosa, i otuda predstavljaju racionalan izbor. Ove injenice otvaraju vie pitanja, medju kojima je najvanije zato se ene ne oslanjaju
na moderne kontraceptivne metode i sredstva? Rezultati istraivanja su izdvojili vei broj faktora razliite vrste, ukljuujui i uverenje da
je moderna kontracepcija tetna po zdravlje kao i barijere koje izviru iz odnosa sa partnerom.
Sa druge strane u istraivanju nije potvrdjena poetna hipoteza da su bolesti koje se prenose seksualnim putem jedan od problema
reproduktivnog zdravlja stanovnitva Crne Gore. Medjutim, ini se da dobijeni podaci o ovoj temi nisu realni imajui u vidu kako
osetljivost pitanja tako i specifinost optih prilika ukljuujui i sve propratne promene tranzicije ekonomskog sistema, otvorenost za
izazove modernog naina ivota i velike pokrete stanovnitva. Za razliku, pak, od dilema vezanih za rasprostranjenost bolesti koje se
prenose seksualnim putem, rezultati istraivanja su ukazali da sterilitet, primarni i sekundarni, nije rasprostranjen i da, svakako, ne
spada u probleme reproduktivnog zdravlja stanovnitva Crne Gore.
The representative survey results - made in 2001 and includes 1000 women aged 20 and 39 years - confirmed that the diffusion of
conservative birth control in which the use of coitus interruptus dominates and the consequential resort of induce abortion in cases of
pregnancies which are unwanted or cannot be accepted is the main reproductive health problem of the Montenegro population. The
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traditional birth control methods are very much incorporated in the system of values, considered a natural part of sexual intercourse,
and therefore seen to be a rational choice. These facts open a number of questions, among which the most important one is why
women are not relying on modern contraceptive methods and means? Research findings discover a complex array of factors,
including a belief that modern contraceptive methods are harmful to health and a number of psychological barriers, also those arising
from relationships with partners.
On the other hand, the initial hypothesis that sexually transmitted diseases are one of the problems of the reproductive health of the
population of Montenegro was not confirmed. However, it seems that the obtained data on this subject are not realistic having in
mind not only the delicacy of the questions but also the specificity of the general conditions including all accompanying changes of
the economic system transition, openness for challenges of the modern way of life and great movements of the population. In contrast
to the dilemma, though, regarding the widely distributed sexually transmitted diseases, the research results indicated that infertility,
primary and secondary, is not widespread and that it certainly is not considered as one of the problems of the reproductive health of
the population of Montenegro.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2001
godina XXXIX
Katarina Sedlecki
PONAANJE I STAVOVI ADOLESCENATA RELEVANTNI ZA REPRODUKTIVNO ZDRAVLJE
BEHAVIOR AND ATTITUDES OF ADOLESCENTS RELEVANT TO THEIR REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH
91-118
K.r.: adolescentkinje, seksualno ponaanje, reproduktivno znanje, seksualna edukacija, reproduktivno zdravlje
K.w.: adolescent females, sexual behaviour, reproductive knowledge, sex education, reproductive health
Rastua uestalost seksualne aktivnosti medju mladima je fenomen koji se zapaa u svim savremenim drutvima, pa i u Srbiji.
Seksualna aktivnost otvara nove zdravstvene probleme, odnosno moe da rezultuje neplaniranom trudnoom i nastankom bolesti koja
se prenosi seksualnim kontaktom. Posebno je ugroeno reproduktivno zdravlje osoba koje prva seksualna iskustva doivljavaju
tokom adolescencije, to se objanjava njihovom telesnom nezrelou i psihosocijalnom nespremnou da preuzmu odgovornost u
seksualnom ponaanju.
U Institutu za zdravstvenu zatitu majke i deteta Srbije je u periodu od 1995. do 1997. godine sprovedeno istraivanje, kojim je
obuhvaeno 300 seksualno aktivnih devojaka u dobi od 19 godina, pacijentkinja Savetovalita za mlade ove ustanove.
Cilj istraivanja je bio da se proceni stepen ugroenosti reproduktivnog zdravlja seksualno aktivnih adolescentkinja analizom modela
njihovog seksualnog ponaanja, njihovih stavova u sferi seksualnosti i reprodukcije i inilaca ueg drutvenog okruenja koji mogu
da budu relevantni za seksualno ponaanje. Ispitano je i miljenje mladih o prihvatljivim merama socijalne intervencije u ovoj
oblasti.
Rezultati ovog istraivanja ukazuju na znaajan stepen ugroenosti reproduktivnog zdravlja adolescentkinja. Ispitanice se u zatiti od
trudnoe najee oslanjaju na tradicionalne metode kontracepcije, poput coitus interruptusa (54,3%), a esto ne razmiljaju ni o
riziku za nastanak bolesti koje se prenose seksualnim kontaktom (sa novim seksualnim partnerom kondom redovno koristi samo
55,6% ispitanica). Nedovoljno su razvijene i zdravstvene navike, tako da se 31,0% ispitanica ginekologu prvi put obrati od jedne do
tri godine posle prvog polnog odnosa. To za posledicu ima veliki broj neeljenih trudnoa (16,0%), a verovatno i visoku uestalost
bolesti koje se prenose seksualnim kontaktom kod seksualno aktivnih adolescentkinja.
Ovakvo ponaanje adolescentkinja delom je posledica nedovoljne informisanosti adolescenata o seksualnosti, kontracepciji i
bolestima koje se prenose seksualnim kontaktom. Neadekvatni su i najei izvori relevantnih znanja (vrnjaci, roditelji, sredstva
javnog informisanja), zbog ega kod mladih postoje brojna pogrena uverenja (o tetnim efektima savremene kontracepcije,
pouzdanosti metoda coitus interruptusa i odsustvu rizika od bolesti koje se prenose seksualnim kontaktom).
Ne postoji ni sistem drutvenih mera koji bi pomogao mladima u kanalisanju njihove seksualnosti. Roditelji zauzimaju pasivan stav,
a kola i zdravstveni radnici su nedovoljno angaovani.
Postoji, medjutim, prostor za socijanu intervenciju, s obzirom da su mladi spremni da usvoje nova znanja u ovoj oblasti (83,3%) i to
putem seksualnog obrazovanja u koli (51,0%) i sredstava javnog informisanja (33,3%). U prenoenju tih saznanja oni najvie veruju
lekaru (67,0%), od koga oekuju i da ima vremena i strpljenja za razgovor (91,3%).
Increase in adolescent sexual activity is a phenomenon noticed in modern societies, as well as in Serbia. The sexual activity reveals
new health related problems, in relation to the unpremeditated pregnancies and sexually transmitted diseases. Reproductive health is
vulnerable especially in case of persons having first sexual experiences being adolescent, what could be explained by the physical
immaturity and psychosocial infirmity to be responsible in sexual behaviour.
The study of 300 sexualy active adolescent women aged 19, attending The Youth Advisory Center of The Mother and Child Health
Care Institute of Serbia was conducted between 1995 1997.
The aim of this study was to evaluate how much the reproductive health in this population was endangered, by analyzing their sexual
behavior, their attitudes in the spheres of sexuality and reproduction, as well as some variables of social microenvironments that
might be relevant to adolescent sexual behavior. Questionnaire included investigation of youth opinion about some acceptable social
measures in this field.
According to the results of this study the adolescents reproductive health is seriously endangered. Interwieved adolescent females
most frequently used traditional birth control methods, like coitus interruptus (54,3%), and often didn't think about the risk of
acquiring sexually transmitted disesase (with new sexual partner the regular condom use was reported only in case of 55,6% girls).
Adolescent girls had also poor health behaviors so that 31,0% of interviewed adolescent females visited gynecologist for the first
time not earlier than one to three years after their first sexual experience. That resulted in large number of unplanned pregnancies
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(16,0%) of interwieved girs had one or more induced abortions, and, possibly, a high prevalence of sexually transmitted infections.
The model of sexual behavior, that was accepted by adolescent females was partly due to the lack of adolescents knowledge about
sexuallity, contraception and sexually transmitted disesases. Improper were the main sources of relevant knowledge (peers, parents,
mass media), therefore, youth had many misconceptions in this sphere (about the harmfulness of modern contraception, reliability of
coitus interruptus method, lack of risk for sexually transmitted diseases transmission).
The social adolescent sexual and reproductive health programme doesn't exist in Serbia. Parents of adolescent females were passive,
and school and health care workers are not engaged in these matters enough.
The possibility for social intervention programme exists, because young people were willing to improve their knowledge about
sexuality and reproduction (83,3%) mostly by sex education in schools (51,0%) and through mass media (33,3%). The most
appreciated sources of relevant knowledge would be physicians (67,0%), from whom they expect to have time and patience for them
and their problems (91,3%).
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2001
godina XXXIX
Mujovi-Zorni, Hajrija
REPRODUKTIVNA PRAVA: PRAVNI ASPEKTI STERILIZACIJE
REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS: LEGAL ASPECTS OF THE RIGHT TO STERILISATION
119-130
K.r.: reproduktivna prava, sterilizacija, pravni poloaj lekara, pravni poloaj pacijenta, odgovornost lekara za tetu
K.w.: reproductive rights, sterilization, legal position of the physician, legal position of the patient, liability for damage
U ovom lanku autor razmatra prirodu i znaaj reproduktivnih prava, posebno prava na sterilizaciju. U prolosti, sterilizacija je
praktikovana kao kaznena mera ili preventivno kod naslednih mentalnih bolesti. Danas se, medjutim, najvie govori o pravu na
sterilizaciju (posebno kad je reverzibilna). Pacijent je slobodan da izabere metod kontracepcije, a to moe biti i dobrovoljna
sterilizacija (takodje nazvana jo i humana, kontraceptivna, ne-terapijska u francuskom, i usluna u nemakom pravu). Razna pravna
pitanja mogu proizai iz ovog prava, u vezi sa stanjem reproduktivnih prava (kako su ona pozitivno-pravno regulisana), ali i zatitom
reproduktivnih prava (posebno prava trudne ene kao pacijenta). Jugoslovensko pravo jo nema potpunu regulativu i adekvatna
reenja u ovoj oblasti, izuzev zakona o pobaaju. Primarna ginekoloka zdravstvena zatita obuhvata i savetovalite za kontracepciju,
ali konkretne mere i edukacija su nedovoljni. Odgovor na sva otvorena pitanja ne moe se dati bez jedne koherentne koncepcije
reproduktivnih prava (svih prava u vezi sa radjanjem), to je prvenstveni zadatak pravnih eksperata.
In this paper the author discusses the nature and importance of the right to reproduce, in particular the right to sterilisation. In the
time past sterilization has been practiced only as a measure of penal policy or the prevention of mental health diseases. Today, mostly
we can speak about the right to sterilization (especially reversible sterilization). The patient have a free choice to decide any method
of contraception and that could be a voluntary sterilization (also called human, contraceptive, non-therapeutical in French law, and
obliging in German law). Various legal questions about this right can be raised, in accordance of state of reproductive rights (how
they are regulated by the law) and the protection of reproductive rights (especially the right of pregnant woman as a patient).
Yugoslav law not yet has a complete regulation and adequate solutions in this area, except the abortion law. The primary gynecology
care has contraceptive counseling, but concrete measures and education are insufficient. It cannot begin to give consistent answers to
all of these questions without a coherent conception of the right to reproduce, which is the primary duty of legal experts.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2001
godina XXXIX
Predojevi, Jelena
TRANZICIJA FERTILITETA U RADOVIMA ALBANSKIH AUTORA SA KOSOVA I METOHIJE
FERTILITY TRANSITION IN WORKS OF ALBANIAN AUTHORS FROM KOSOVO AND METOHIA
131-156
K.r.: fertilitet, Kosovo i Metohija, tradicija, faktori fertiliteta, planiranje porodice
K.w.: fertility, Kosovo and Metohia, tradition, fertility factors, family planning
Visok nivo fertiliteta ukazuje da je na Kosovu i Metohiji jo uvek prisutan reproduktivni model sa elementima tradicionalnog tipa,
koga karakterie dug period radjanja tokom reproduktivnog perioda, kao i znatno uee viih redova rodjenja. Veliki broj albanskih
autora sa Kosova i Metohije smatra da su za takvo stanje, koje je direktno uslovljeno nerazvijenou Pokrajine u socijalnom,
ekonomskom, medicinskom, kulturnom i dr. smislu, odgovorni istorijski uslovi u kojima se razvijalo stanovnitvo, naroito albanske
nacionalnosti, odnosno, nain ivota u kome dominira patrijarhalni duh i tradicionalni sistem vrednosti. U okviru psiholokih faktora
fertiliteta vrlo bitno mesto zauzima tradicija, iji se uticaj manifestuje kroz odredjivanje starosti suprunika pri sklapanju braka,
stabilnost braka, negativan stav o celibatu, zatim, odnosu tradicije i radjanju prema polu deteta, kao i sprezi tradicije i religije.
Znaajno mesto zauzima i poloaj ene u porodici i drutvu, jer inferiorni poloaj ene doprinosi da ona postane "uvar tradicije",
odnosno da obezbedjuje kontinuitet patrijarhalnog naina ivota, iako su njegove vrednosti okrenute protiv samih ena.
Medju albanskim autorima sa Kosova i Metohije moe se rei da vlada konsenzus da je za sporu tranziciju fertiliteta najvie
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odgovoran nepovoljan drutveno-ekonomski poloaj stanovnitva. Pokrajina je najkasnije od svih delova SFR Jugoslavije ula u
proces urbanizacije i industrijalizacije, dok je, kako se navodi, i obim i tempo tih procesa bio nedovoljan da bi znaajnije uticao na
menjanje demografskog kompleksa i socijalnog stanja uopte. Navodi se i da ukoliko bi se sproveo intenzivan ekonomski razvitak
Kosova i Metohije, nivo nataliteta bi se smanjio za znatno krae vreme nego to su to uspeli da uine drugi delovi zemlje.
Planiranje porodice je oblast koja je izazvala najvie polemike medju albanskim autorima sa Kosova i Metohije. Teme koje su se
isticale po vanosti mogu se podeliti u tri grupe: ta se podrazumeva pod planiranjem porodice, koji su razlozi za usvajanje i
sprovodjenje programa za planiranje porodice, kao i koji su mogui naini sprovodjenja ovih programa. Takodje se mogu izdvojiti i
dve grupe istraivaa. Prva koja smatra da reproduktivnu svest odredjuju faktori modernizacije drutva, tj. da se planiranje porodice
reava samo u hodu sa privrednim i drutvenim razvojem Pokrajine, i druga grupa autora, koja smatra da drutveno-ekonomski
razvitak jeste potreban uslov, medjutim, drutvo treba da usmerava akcije u cilju razvoja odredjenih drutvenih delatnosti i
obezbedjivanja uslova za sprovodjenje prava oveka na slobodno roditeljstvo i programa za planiranje porodice.
A high level of fertility indicates that the reproductive model with elements of traditional type, characterized by a long period of
birth-giving during the reproductive period, as well as a considerable participation of higher confinement order, is still present in
Kosovo and Metohia. A large number of Albanian authors from Kosovo and Metohia believe such a state, which is directly caused
by the undeveloped condition of the Province in the social, economic, medical, cultural and other senses, is due to historical
conditions in which the population developed, especially of Albanian nationality, namely the way of life in which the old-fashioned
spirit prevails and the traditional system of values. A very significant place within the psychological factors of fertility is taken by
tradition, whose influence is manifested through the determination of the age of the married couple when getting married, the
stability of the marriage, negative attitude on celibacy, moreover the relation of tradition and birth giving towards the sex of the child,
as well as the tie between tradition and religion. The position of women in the family and society takes a significant place, because
the inferior position of the women contributes to the fact that she becomes the "guardian of tradition", namely that she provides the
continuity of the old fashioned way of life even though its values are turned against the actual women.
It may be said the there is a consensus among the Albanian authors from Kosovo and Metohia that the slow transition of fertility is
due the most to the unfavorable socio-economic position of the population. The Province of all parts of SFR Yugoslavia went the last
into the process of urbanization and industrialization, while as stated, the scope and tempo of those processes was insufficient for
them to significantly influence the demographic complex change and social state in general. It is also stated that if an intensive
economic development of Kosovo and Metohia was carried out, the level of natality would be decreased in a considerably shorter
time than what other parts of the country succeeded.
Family planning is a field which provoked the most polemics among Albanian authors from Kosovo and Metohia. The themes which
stood out according to importance may be divided in three groups: what is understood by family planning, what are the reasons for
adopting and carring out the family planning program, and what are the possible ways of carrying our these programs. Two groups of
researchers may also be singled out. The first which believes that reproductive conscience is determined by society modernization
factors, namely that family planning is solved only in conjuction with economic and social development of the Province, and the
other group of authors which believes that socio-economic development is a necessary condition, however, society should direct
actions in order to develop certain social activities and provide conditions for carrying out the rights of man to free parenthood and
family planning programs.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2001
godina XXXIX
Jari, Ljubica
SAVREMENE MIGRACIJE VISOKOSTRUNE I KVALIFIKOVANE RADNE SNAGE U AUSTRALIJI
CONTEMPORARY SKILL MIGRATION IN AUSTRALIA
157-182
K.r.: migracije visokostrune i kvalifikovane radne snage, obrnuti transfer tehnologije, imigraciona politika, Australija,
trite radne snage
K.w.: skill migration, reverse transfer of technology, immigration policy, Australia, labour force
Imigracija je uvek predstavljala kljunu karakteristiku australijskog drutvenog i ekonomskog razvoja. Australijski administratori
odvajaju migracioni i humanitarni program. Migracioni program ima dva toka: porodica i strunjaci. Neto manji, tok specijalne
kvalifikovanosti ukljuuje grupe kao to su raniji australijski gradjani i raniji stanovnici koji su zadrali svoje veze sa Australijom.
Tok strunjaka australijskog migracionog programa je specijalno napravljen za grupu migranata koji su struni ili poseduju
izvanredne sposobnosti kojima e doprineti australijskoj ekonomiji. Migracije ljudi sa kvalifikacijama i odgovarajuim radnim
iskustvom u Australiju mogu pomoi u reavanju problema nedostatka strunjaka u Australiji i poveavanju veliine, nivoa
kvalifikovanosti i produktivnosti australijskog trita radne snage. Strunjaci migranti su, uglavnom, zaposleni u menaderskim,
administrativnim, profesionalnim ili paraprofesionalnim zanimanjima ili su trgovci. Stalno kretanje predstavlja glavni elemenat neto
medjunarodnih migracija. Australija ima iskustvo ne samo u privlaenju visokokvalifikovanih strunjaka za stalno, ve i u
dugoronim kretanjima kao posledicu globalizacije poslovanja, stvaranja medjunarodnog trita radne snage i obrazovanja i jeftinog
putovanja. Visina dugoronih kretanja je pod jakim uticajem, dvostruko, domaih i medjunarodnih uslova razvoja, posebno
ekonomskih. Sve vie Australijanaca odlazi u inostranstvo na rad i studiranje dok stranci dolaze u Australiju u velikom broju iz istih
razloga.
Migracija strunjaka u SRJ je najvie korelisana sa ekonomskom situacijom u zemlji. Tok strunjaka iz SRJ u Australiju je znaajno
povean od 1990. godine. U australijskoj zvaninoj statistici odvojeni podaci za SRJ su dostupni od jula 1998. godine. Pre jula 1998.
godine komponenta SRJ je inila znaajno uee u totalu bive jugoslovenske republike. Procenjeni tok srpskih strunjaka u
Australiji iznosi oko 4500 osoba.
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Immigration has always been a key of the Australian social and economic development. Australia administers separate Migration and
Humanitarian Programs. The Migration Program has two streams: Family and Skill. The smaller Special Eligibility stream includes
groups such as former Australian citizens and former residents who have maintained ties with Australia. The Skill stream of
Australia's Migration Program is specifically designed to target migrants who have skills or outstanding abilities that will contribute
to the Australian economy. The migration to Australia of people with qualifications and relevant work experience can help to address
skill shortages in Australia and enhance the size, skill level and productivity of the Australian labour force. Skilled migrants were
mainly employed in managerial, administrative, professional or paraprofessional occupations or as traders. Permanent movement
represents the major element of net overseas migration. Australia has experienced not only permanent influx of skilled but long-term
movement as an affect of globalisation of business, the creation of international labour and education markets and cheaper travel. The
level of long-term movements is strongly influenced by both domestic and international conditions of development, particularly
economic conditions. More Australians are going overseas to work and study and foreigners are coming to Australia in larger
numbers for the same reasons.
Skill migration in FRY is mostly correlated with the economic situation in the country. Skill stream from FRY to Australia has been
significantly increased since 1990. In the Australian official statistics separate data for the FRY has been available since July 1998.
Prior to July 1998. FRY component was substantial proportion of total Former Yugoslav Republics. Estimated Serbian skill stream is
around 4500 people.
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/2001
godina XXXIX
urev, Branislav S., Mirjana Raevi
EVROPSKA POPULACIONA KONFERENCIJA 2001, "EVROPSKO STANOVNITVO: VARIJACIJE NA
ZAJEDNIKE TEME", HELSINKI, 7-9. JUNI 2001.
183-185
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/2001
godina XXXIX
Predojevi, Jelena
EUROFOR GODINJA KONFERENCIJA 2000. "MIGRACIJE - ZATITA IZBEGLICA - INTEGRACIJA U
ZAJEDNICU - ETNIKI KONFLIKTI - POLITIKA PREMA NACIONALNIM MANJINAMA", BRISEL, 22-26.
NOVEMBAR 2000.
185-190
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/2001
godina XXXIX
Banievi, Milo
MIRJANA RAEVI "PLANIRANJE PORODICE KAO STIL IVOTA"
191-192
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/2001
godina XXXIX
Stankovi, Biljana
UNICEF INNOCENTI RESEARCH CENTRE "YOUNG PEOPLE IN CHANGING SOCIETES"
192-195
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/2001
godina XXXIX
Jari, Ljubica
CHRISTIAN JOPPKE "IMMIGRATION AND THE NATION-STATE. THE UNITED STATES, GERMANY AND
GREAT BRITAIN"
195-200
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asopis Stanovnitvo
statistiki prilog
broj 1-4/2001
godina XXXIX
Stevanovi, Radoslav
NASELJA U CENTRALNOJ SRBIJI I VOJVODINI SA POZITIVNIM PRIRODNIM PRIRATAJEM U 2000.
GODINI
201-208
***************************************************************************
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2002
godina XL
Raevi, Mirjana
VOLJNA STERILIZACIJA U SRBIJI: NEZADOVOLJENA POTREBA?
VOLUNTARY STERILIZATION IN SERBIA: UNMET NEED?
15-34
K.r.: voljna sterilizacija, Srbija
K.w.: voluntary sterilization, Serbia
Da li se voljna sterilizacija kao metod kontrole radjanja prihvata u Srbiji? To je svakako pitanje koje se namee za istraivanje,
nezavisno to voljna sterilizacija nije ni dostupna niti se promovie. Pre svega zbog toga to nema razumevanja u socijalnoj i
politikoj sferi za legalizaciju voljne sterilizacije kao vida prevencije zaea i pored toga to postoje jasne potrebe za ovaj, prvi,
korak. To su: saznanje da je voljna sterilizacija efikasan i bezbedan metod kontrole radjanja, potovanje osnovnih ljudskih kao i
seksualnih i reproduktivnih prava, rairenost sterilizacije kao vida kontrole radjanja medju stanovnitvom i razvijenih zemalja i
zemalja u razvoju i epidemioloka rasprostranjenost ponovljenih namernih prekida trudnoe u Srbiji. Otuda bi individualno
prepoznavanje prednosti oslanjanja na voljnu sterilizaciju, u atmosferi koja nije podsticajna, svakako predstavljao jo jedan argument
vie da se omogui parovima da preveniraju zaee putem okluzije jajovoda odnosno vazektomije.
U nemogunosti da se sprovede reprezentativno istraivanje medju populacijom ena i mukaraca koji su na riziku za zaee,
pokuano je da se odgovor na postavljeno pitanje dobije medju enama koje su se odluile da namerno prekinu trudnou. To je
uinjeno iz najmanje dva razloga. Prvi razlog je to su ene sa indukovanim abortusom u reproduktivnoj istoriji ciljna grupa za
voljnu sterilizaciju. Drugi razlog se bazira na pretpostavci da donoenju odluke o namernom prekidu trudnoe prethodi preispi-tivanje
ranije usvojene strategije vezane za decu, radjanje i prevenciju zaea i otuda je njena racionalna komponenta vie otkrivena i time lake
merljiva. Istraivanje je sprovedeno u Ginekoloko-akuerskoj klinici "Narodni front" u Beogradu od 21. januara do 1. marta 2002.
godine i obuhvatilo je 296 ena. Poredjenjem socijalnih i demografskih obeleja ispitanica kao i vanih dogadjaja u njihovoj
reproduktivnoj istoriji sa strukturnim karakteristikama ukupne populacije ena iste starosti i pariteta koje prekidaju trudnou
potvrdilo je reprezentativnost uzorka i otuda je omoguilo uoptavanje rezultata.
Rezultati pokazuju da se jasno izdvaja ciljna grupa koja bi se opredelila za sterilizaciju kao kontraceptivni metod. Ne samo da vie
od polovine anketiranih ena koje namerno prekida trudnou smatra da voljna sterilizacija kao metoda kontracepcije treba da bude
dostupna u Srbiji, ve, takodje, veliki broj anketiranih ena, gotovo polovina ispitanica, bi se podvrgao voljnoj sterilizaciji poto rodi
eljeni broj dece i kada bi bio uveren da sterilizacija ne utie za zdravlje, polnu mo, niti kvalitet seksualnog ivota. Mladje ene,
ispitanice sa srednjim obrazovanjem, one koje su rodile eljeni broj dece, kao i ene koje imaju dobar odnos sa partnerom, a suoile su se
sa velikim brojem namernih prekida trudnoe, odnosno koje ele da koriste kontracepciju u budunosti, otvorenije su za okluziju
jajovoda. Razlozi individualnog neprihvatanja, odnosno neodredjenog stava prema sterilizaciji kao metodi kontracepcije, pokazuju da se
mnogi od registrovanih ambilavalentnih ili negativnih razmiljanja mogu promeniti argumentovanim irenjem znanja o karakteristikama
voljne sterilizacije kao metode kontracepcije.
Is voluntary sterilization as a birth control method accepted in Serbia? This is certainly a question that is being imposed for research,
regardless of the fact that voluntary sterilization is neither accessible nor promoted. Most importantly because there is no
understanding in the social nor political sphere for legalization of voluntary sterilization as a form of birth control, apart from the
clear necessity for this, first, step. They are: the recognition that voluntary sterilization is an efficient and safe birth control method,
respectability of basic human as well as sexual and reproductive rights, spreading of sterilization as a form of birth control among
population of both developed and developing countries and an epidemic diffusion of repeated induced abortions in Serbia. Thus
individual recognition of the advantages of relying on voluntary sterilization, in a non-encouraging atmosphere, certainly represents
one more argument to enable couples to prevent conception by sterilization.
Since it was impossible to carry out a representative research among the population of men and women who are at risk for
conception, an attempt was made to obtain a reply to the set question among women who decided to induce abortion. It was done out
of at least two reasons. The first being that women with induced abortion in their reproductive history were the target group for
voluntary sterilization. The second reason was based on the assumption that bringing a decision on induced abortion is preceded by
the reconsideration of an earlier adopted strategy regarding children, giving birth and contraception and thus its rational component is
revealed more and therefore more easily measurable. The research was carried out in the University Clinic of Obstetrics and
Gynaecology "Narodni front" in Belgrade from January 21st o March 1st 2002, and included 296 women. By comparing the social
and demographic characteristics of the female respondents, as well as important events in their reproductive history with structural
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traits of the total population of women of same age and parity who induce abortion, the representativeness of samples was confirmed
and thus generalization of results.
The results indicate that a target group is clearly distinct which would decide on sterilization as a contraceptive method. Not only do
more than half of the surveyed women who induce abortion believe that voluntary sterilization as a method of contraception should
be available in Serbia, but also a large number of surveyed women, almost a half, would subject themselves to voluntary sterilization
after having given birth to the desired number of children and when they would be convinced that sterilization does not influence
health, sex potency, nor quality of sex life. Younger women, respondents with secondary education, those who gave birth to the
desired number of children, as well as those who have a good relationship with their partner, and confronted themselves with a large
number of induced abortions, namely those who wish to use contraception in future, are more open to voluntary sterilization. The
reasons for individual nonacceptance, namely undetermined standpoint towards sterilization as a contraception method, indicate that
many of the registered ambivalent or negative opinions could be changed by knowledge spreading on the characteristics of voluntary
sterilization.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2002
godina XL
Radivojevi, Biljana
SMANJENJE SMRTNOSTI STAROG STANOVNITVA U JUGOSLAVIJI ANSA ZA POVEANJE
OEKIVANOG TRAJANJA IVOTA
DECREASE OF OLD AGE POPULATION MORTALITY IN YUGOSLAVIA CHANCE TO INCREASE
ANTICIPATED LIFE EXPECTANCY
35-52
K.r.: demografsko starenje, smrtnost starih, oekivano trajanje ivota, bolesti cirkulatornog sistema
K.w.: demographic ageing, old age mortality, anticipated life expectancy, cardiovascular system illnesses
U radu se analizira nivo i struktura smrtnosti starog stanovnitva u Jugoslaviji sa ciljem da se utvrdi intenzitet ostvarenih promena i
prui odgovor o tome koliko su one znaile i pribliavanje pozitivnim trendovima uoenim u razvijenim zemljama u najnovijem
periodu. Iako je bila nedovoljno zastupljena u demografskoj analizi, analiza smrtnosti kod starih sve vie dobija na znaaju u svetu.
Osim razloga koji proistiu iz porasta broja starih lica i otuda njihovog veeg udela u ukupnom broju umrlih, sve vie su u fokusu
interesovanja zavidni rezultati postignuti u sniavanju smrtnosti starih lica. Jer, dok su ranija istraivanja govorila o dominantnom
uticaju smanjenja smrtnosti kod mladjih godita na porast oekivanog trajanja ivota novorodjenih, skorije analize upravo potvrdjuju
vanost smanjenja mortaliteta kod starijih.
U uslovima smrtnosti iz 1997/98. godine, u proseku mukarce u Jugoslaviji oekuje dodatnih 13,4 godina ivota, a ene 15,2 godine.
U toku vie od pet decenija oekivano trajanje ivota starih 65 godina povealo se za svega 1,2 godine kod mukog i 1,9 godina kod
enskog stanovnitva. Od toga, najvei porast ostvaren je u periodu 1950/51-1960/61 kod oba pola. Kod mukaraca zabeleen je i
mali pad srednjeg trajanja ivota u periodu 1960/61-1970/71, a kod ena u najnovijem periodu. Inae, godinja stopa porasta je sve
do osamdesetih bila znatno nia od stope porasta za nultu godinu. Tek u periodu 1980/81-1990/91. bri rast imalo je oekivano
trajanje ivota za starost 65 godina. Tokom devedesetih, medjutim, nastavljeno je sa nepovoljnijim promenama kod starije, naroito
enske populacije. Poredjenje vrednosti srednjeg trajanja ivota za lica stara 65 godina u Jugoslaviji sa odgovarajuim u razvijenim
zemljama, zaostajanje u proseku iznosi oko 3 godine za muko i oko 5 godina za ensko stanovnitvo. U Japanu je ono u 1998.
godini iznosilo 17,1 godinu odnosno 22,0 godine respektivno. Medjutim, interesantno je da su sve do sedamdesetih ovi pokazatelji
bili na gotovo istom nivou u naoj zemlji i u Japanu, a da su posle toga ispoljene razlike, kao posledica zaustavljanja pozitivnih
tendencija u diferencijalnoj smrtnosti po starosti, pa ak i porasta stopa kod starog stanovnitva u Jugoslaviji. S druge strane u Japanu
je od 1970. do 1998. godine oekivano trajanje ivota za starost 65 (za oba pola) poveano za 40%, naspram poveanja od 9% za 0
godina starosti. U istom periodu u Jugoslaviji je, iako znatno nii procenat porasta, i dalje on bio znaajniji kod odojadi (iznad 6%
za oba pola), nego kod starih 65 godina (ispod 5%). Otuda, takav smer i intenzitet promena rezultirao je, u odnosu na Japan, relativno
veim zaostajanjem kod lica starih 65 godina nego starih 0 godina.
Oekivano trajanje ivota za lica stara 85 i vie godina, tokom itavog posmatranog perioda, poraslo je svega za oko 8% kod mukog
i 10% kod enskog stanovnitva Jugoslavije. Njegov dananji nivo rezultat je malih promena u stopama smrtnosti najstarijeg
stanovnitva. U proseku lica stara 85+ ivee jo 4,2, odnosno 4,4 godine respektivno pod predpostavkom mortaliteta iz 1997/98.
Istovremeno Japance oekuje u proseku dodatnih 5,4, a Japanke 7,2 godine.
Prema tome, sredoveno i staro stanovnitvo u Jugoslaviji je imalo znatno nepovoljnije tendencije mortaliteta u odnosu na mlado
stanovnitvo, izrazitije poev od sedamdesetih, i naroito kod mukaraca. Devedesete godine su ponovo nepovoljnije za staro
stanovnitvo, ovoga puta posebno za ensko, kod koga je zabeleeno i malo smanjenje ovog pokazatelja. Imajui u vidu promene i
dostignuti nivo oekivanog trajanja ivota u razvijenim zemljama, moe se rei da su odstupanja u odnosu na pokazatelje za nau
zemlju znaajna, relativno vea kod starog stanovnitva. Otuda, iako sve mogunosti, u naoj zemlji, za smanjenje smrtnosti i kod
mladjih nisu iskoriene, posebno kod odojadi, redukcija mortaliteta starih jeste ansa za porast duine ivota. U tom smislu izgleda
najveu vanost imala bi vea kontrola kardiovaskularnih bolesti i suzbijanje riziko-faktora vezanih za individualno ponaanje.
This study analyzes the level and structure of old age population mortality in Yugoslavia with an aim to determine the intensity of
realized changes and to provide an answer to how much they are significant and to approach the positive trends noted in developed
countries in the latest period. Although it was insufficiently represented in the demographic analysis, the analysis of mortality in old
people is gaining importance in the world. Apart from the reasons which result from the increase in the number of old people and
thus their greater participation in the total number of deceased, enviable results have been achieved in decreasing old age mortality,
which are more and more in focus of interest. While earlier research reported on the dominant influence of the decrease of younger
age mortality to the increase of the expectation of life at birth, recent analysis precisely confirm the importance of decreasing
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mortality in old people.

In mortality conditions from 1997/98, an additional 13.4 years of life in average is expected for men in Yugoslavia, and 15.2 for
women. During more than five decades, the anticipated life expectancy for people over the age of 65 increased for only 1.2 years for
men and 1.9 years for women. Out of that, the greatest increase was realized in the period 1950/51 1960/61 in both sexes. A small
decrease in the average life expectancy was marked with men in the period 1960/61 1970/71, and with women in the latest period.
Otherwise, all up to the eighties, the annual rate of increase was considerably lower than the rate of increase for zero year. It was only
in the period 1980/81-1990/91 that faster growth had an anticipated life expectancy for the 65 years old. However, during the nineties
unfavorable changes continued with the older, especially, female population. When comparing the values of the average life
expectancy for people over 65 in Yugoslavia with corresponding values in developed countries, the lagging in average amounted to
about 3 years for the male and about 5 years for the female population. In Japan in 1998 it amounted to 17.1 years, namely 22.0 years
respectively. However, it is interesting that all up to the seventies these indexes were almost at the same level in our country and
Japan, and only after this period the differences appeared as a consequence of putting an end to the positive tendencies in differential
mortality by age, even in the increase rate with the older population in Yugoslavia. On the other hand, the anticipated life expectancy
for the age of 65 (for both sexes) was increased by 40%, in Japan from 1970 to 1998, in contrast to an increase of 9% for 0 age. In the
same period in Yugoslavia, although there was a considerably lower increase percentage, it was still more significant with newborns
(above 6% for both sexes), than with population older than 65 (under 5%). Hence, such an inclination and intensity of changes
resulted, in relation to Japan, in a relatively greater lagging with people aged 65 than with 0 age.
The anticipated life expectancy for people aged 85 and over, in the whole observed period, increased only by 8% with the male
population and 10% with the female population of Yugoslavia. Its present level is the result of small changes in the mortality rates of
the oldest population. In average, people aged 85 + will live another 4.2, namely 4.4 years respectively under the assumed mortality
from 1997/98. At the same time the Japanese men are expected to live another 5.4, and Japanese women another 7.2 years.
Therefore, middle aged and old population in Yugoslavia has had unfavorable mortality tendencies in relation to the young
population, more distinct beginning from the seventies, and especially with men. The nineties were again unfavorable for the old
population, this time especially for the female population, where a slight decrease of this rate was marked. Having in mind the
changes and achieved level of anticipated life expectancy in developed countries, it can be said that the deviations in relation to the
rates in our country are significant, relatively greater with the older population. For this reason, mortality reduction of the old age
population is a chance for an increase in the life span, although all possibilities in our country, for the decrease of mortality with the
young as well, especially newborns, have not been exploited. In that sense, it seems that the greatest importance would be control of
cardiovascular illnesses and risk factors regarding individual behavior.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2002
godina XL
Stankovi, Biljana
NOVI MORBIDITET MLADIH
NEW MORBIDITY OF THE YOUNG
53-76
K.r.: adolescenti, rizino ponaanje, prevencija
K.w.: adolescents, risky behavior, prevention
U sadanjoj fazi epidemioloke tranzicije, najei uzroci morbiditeta mladih ljudi jesu poremeaji reproduktivnog zdravlja, mentalni
poremeaji i povrede koje ne ugroavaju ivot. Ovaj, tzv. novi morbiditet mladih, uslovljen je najee njihovim rizinim
ponaanjem, to u oblasti seksualnosti esto dovodi do neplaniranih trudnoa i abortusa, kao i oboljevanja od seksualno prenosivih
infekcija. Zloupotreba duvana, alkohola i opojnih droga, iji poetak je najee vezan za uzrast adolescencije, ima nepovoljan uticaj
na psiho-fiziko zdravlje mladih, kako kratkoroan, tako i dugoroan.
Sva istraivanja, u svetu i kod nas, govore o postepenom, ali stalnom porastu seksualne aktivnosti mladih i sniavanju prosenog
uzrasta njenog zapoinjanja, naroito kada je re o devojkama. Usled nedovoljne zrelosti i nedostatka znanja i svesti o potrebi
uvanja reproduktivnog zdravlja, seksualno ponaanje mladih esto se moe oznaiti kao nedovoljno odgovorno i nije praeno
korienjem odgovarajuih mera zatite. Posledica toga esto je namerni prekid trudnoe, kojim se zavrava 90% neplaniranih i
neeljenih trudnoa u ovom uzrastu, to sa sobom nosi zdravstvene i psihosocijalne rizike, kao i radjanje u adolescenciji, koje je u
suprotnosti sa savremenim zdravstvenim konceptom da ona ne treba da se ostvari prerano, dok je razvoj mlade osobe jo u toku.
Takodje je prisutan i znaajan porast uestalosti polno prenosivih infekcija, kojima su mladi, usled specifinosti razvojnog perioda u
kom se nalaze, posebno podloni.
Ozbiljan medicinski i sociopatoloki problem savremenog drutva predstavlja sve rasprostranjenija zloupotreba psihoaktivnih
supstanci medju mladima, sa tendencijom sniavanja prosenog uzrasta prve upotrebe, kao i redovne upotrebe droga i alkohola. Dok
se sa porastom kampanja i restriktivnih mera protiv puenja u visokorazvijenim zemljama rasprostranjenost puenja medju mladima
smanjuje, medju mladima u Istonoj Evropi i zemljama u razvoju se poveava.
Kako su poremeaji zdravlja mladih ljudi, o kojima je bilo rei, uslovljeni, pre svega, njihovim rizinim ponaanjem i nedovoljno
odgovornim odnosom prema zdravlju, na smanjenje njihove rasprostranjenosti mogue je uticati prevencijom. Institucije obrazovnog
i zdravstvenog sistema predstavljaju nosioce preventivnog delovanja, koje podrazumeva zdravstvenu edukaciju i pomo mladima u
ovladavanju ivotnim vetinama, uz neophodnost usmeravanja podrke i na porodicu, koja u ivotu mladih ljudi zadrava znaajno
mesto i ima vaan uticaj na njihovo ponaanje izlaganja riziku. Znaajan je i uticaj zakonske i normativne regulative, uloga mas
medija, kao i delovanje politikih, nevladinih, verskih i drugih organizacija koje svojim angaovanjem odredjuju sredinu u kojoj
mladi ive.
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In the present phase of epidemiological transition, the most frequent causes of youth morbidity are disorders in reproductive health,
mental disorders and injuries which are not life threatening. This, so-called new youth morbidity, is most often caused by their risky
behavior, which in the field of sexuality often leads to unplanned pregnancies and abortions, as well as sexually transmitted
infections. Misuse of tobacco, alcohol and narcotics, which is most commonly started in adolescence, has an unfavorable short-term
and long-term influence on the psycho-physical health of the young.
All research, in the world and in our country, indicate gradual yet constant growth of sexual activity of the youth and the age
decrease of its starting point, especially when girls are in question. Due to insufficient maturity and inadequate knowledge and
consciousness on the necessity of protecting reproductive health, sexual behavior of young people can often be characterized as
insufficiently responsible and not supplemented with the usage of adequate protective measures. The result is frequently abortion,
which terminates 90% of unplanned and unwanted pregnancies in this age. This creates health and psychosocial risks, as well as
giving birth in adolescence which is contrary to the modern health concepts that giving birth should not be performed too early, while
the young are still developing. A significant increase in the frequency of sexually transmitted diseases is also present, to which the
youth are especially susceptible due to the specific development period in which they are in.
A serious medical and sociopathological problem of contemporary society represents the greater and greater misuse of psychoactive
substances among the young people, with a tendency of decreasing the average age they are consumed for the first time, as well as
the use of drugs and alcohol. With the increase of the anti-smoking campaign and restrictive measures in highly developed countries
smoking among young people is decreasing, while it is increasing in Eastern Europe and developing countries.
As the health disorders of young people mentioned above, are conditioned, above all, by their risky behavior and insufficient relation
towards health, the degree to which they are widespread can be influenced by prevention. Educational and health institutes represent
the carriers of preventive activity, which understands health education and aid to young people in overcoming lifes skills, along with
the necessity to direct support to the family as well, which maintains a significant place in the life of young people and has a
important influence on their behavior to risk exposure. A significant influence is also legal and provision regulations, the role of mass
media, as well as the activities of political, nongovernmental, religious and other organizations which determine the environment in
which young people live.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2002
godina XL
Mrdjen, Snjeana
NARODNOST U POPISIMA - PROMENLJIVA I NESTALNA KATEGORIJA
ETHNICITY IN CENSUSES. CHANGEABLE AND INCONSTANT CATEGORY
77-104
K.r.: popis, popisnica, nacionalna pripadnost, Jugoslavija, bive jugoslavenske republike
K.w.: census, census form, ethnicity, Yugoslavia, former yugoslav republics
Pitanje o nacionalnoj pripadnosti bilo je postavljeno u svim popisima SFRJ, kao i u prvom popisu u dravama nastalim nakon njenog
raspada. Analizirajui popise, moe se zakljuiti da je to kategorija koja je podlona promjenama. Nije se mijenjao samo nain
postavljanja pitanja u popisima, nego broj kategorija nacionalnosti i njihov redoslijed u objavljenim popisnim rezultatima. Ovisilo je
to uglavnom o dravnoj politici, i o politikoj situaciji koja je prethodila popisima. Budui da je odgovor na pitanje o nacionalnosti
subjektivni kriterij, a on se upisivao prema slobodno izraenoj nacionalnoj pripadnosti stanovnika koja je zagarantirana Ustavom,
esto se dogadjalo da su se ista lica razliito izjanjavala od popisa do popisa, a isto tako neke su kategorije nacionalnosti nastajale, a
neke nestajale.
Iako su u SFRJ narodi i narodnosti bili ravnopravni, ipak se indirektno, u objavljenim rezultatima ukazivalo na postojanje ovih dviju
kategorija. U novonastalim dravama, medjutim promijenio se nain postavljanja pitanja o nacionalnoj pripadnosti, promijenjen je
njihov broj i redoslijed, i ponovno se uveo pojam "nacionalna manjina", ukazujui tako, bez sumnje, na drugaiji poloaj narodnosti
(osim veinske) nego to je bio u bivoj Jugoslaviji.
The issue of ethnicity was set in all censuses of SFRY, as well as in the first censuses in countries that were created after its
disintegration. When analyzing the censuses it can be concluded that it is a changeable category. Not only was the manner of forming
the question in censuses changing, but also the number of categories of nationality and their order in published census' results. It
depended on state policy and the political situation preceding the censuses. Since the answer on the issues of ethnicity is a subjective
criterion, and it was written down according to the freely declared statement of the residents, guaranteed by the Constitution. It has
often happened that same individuals have declared themselves differently from one census to another, and also some categories of
ethnicity have vanished and some others were created.
Although in SFRY nations and ethnicities were equal, still indirectly in published results, existence of these two categories was
indicated. But, in newly created countries, the manner of forming the question of ethnicity was changed, their number and order were
also changed and the notion of "minority" was again introduced, indicating, beyond doubt, a different status of nationality (except the
majority) from the one in the former Yugoslavia.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2002
godina XL
Penev, Goran, Radoslav Stevanovi
SMANJENJE ILI POVEANJE STANOVNITVA CENTRALNE SRBIJE I VOJVODINE? PRVI REZULTATI
POPISA 2002.
POPULATION DECREASE OR INCREASE? FIRST RESULTS OF THE CENSUS 2002 IN CENTRAL SERBIA
AND VOJVODINA
105-128
K.r.: popis stanovnitva, koncept ukupnog stanovnitva, kretanje stanovnitva, Srbija
K.w.: census of population, concept of total population, population dynamics, Serbia
U ovom radu dat je komentar prvih rezultata poslednjeg popisa stanovnitva koji je odran aprila 2002. godine. Popis je sproveden
nakon jednogodinjeg odlaganja, a po prvi put nije realizovan na itavoj teritoriji zemlje. U Crnoj Gori on je ponovo odloen za jo
godinu dana. Na Kosovu i Metohiji, za sada, nije predvidjeno sprovodjenje popisa stanovnitva.
Prema prvim rezultatima Popisa 2002, u Centralne Srbije je ivelo 5454950 lica, a u Vojvodini 2024487. Istovremeno, na tzv.
privremenom radu i boravku u inostranstvu bilo je ukupno 328795 stanovnika Centralne Srbije i 67148 stanovnika Vojvodine. U
odnosu na stanje u vreme prethodnog popisa (1991) broj stanovnika (u zemlji) Centralne Srbije je smanjen za 127,7 hiljada ili za
2,3%, dok je broj stanovnika Vojvodine povean za 58,1 hiljadu ili za 3,0%. Broj lica u inostranstvu, u odnosu na 1991. znatno je
uvean, i to za 102,5 hiljade (45,3%) u Centralnoj Srbiji, odnosno za 19,6 hiljada (41,3%) u Vojvodini. Ukoliko se posmatra ukupno
stanovnitvo (u zemlji i inostranstvu), u Centralnoj Srbiji je ono iznosilo 5783745, a u Vojvodini 2091635. To znai da je u odnosu
na 1991. godinu, u Centralnoj Srbiji stanovnitvo smanjeno za 25,2 hiljade, a u Vojvodini poveano za 77,7 hiljada. Ova kretanja
suprotna su onima iz prethodnog medjupopisnog perioda (1981-1991), kada je broj stanovnika Centralne Srbije povean (za 114,4
hiljade, od toga u zemlji za 91,6 hiljada), a Vojvodine smanjen (za 20,9 hiljada, odnosno za 2,8 hiljada u zemlji).
U drugom delu rada analizirana je populaciona dinamika optina i naselja. U medjupopisnom periodu 1991-2002. u tri etvrtine
optina (120 od 161 optine) i etiri petine naselja (3835 od 4705 naselja) ostvarena je negativna stopa rasta stanovnitva. Gotovo po
pravilu, to su optine i naselja sa relativno velikim udelom izbeglica i interno raseljenih lica.
This article analyses the first results of the latest census of population taken in 2002. For the first time, the census was not taken on
the whole territory of the FR of Yugoslavia. The Census 2002 was taken after a year long delay, and for the first time, it wasn't
conducted in the entire country. It was postponed in Montenegro for another year. So far, a census conducting was not planned in
Kosovo and Metohija.
According to the first results of the Census 2002, 5454950 persons lived in Central Serbia, and 2024487 in Vojvodina. At the same
time, a total of 328795 inhabitants of Central Serbia and 67148 inhabitants of Vojvodina were at 'temporary' work/stay abroad.
Compared to the previous census (1991), the population (in the country) of Central Serbia was decreased by 127,7 thousand or
-2,3%, while the population of Vojvodina increased by 58,1 thousand or 3,0%. The number of persons 'temporary' abroad, compared
to 1991, was significantly increased in Central Serbia (102,5 thousand or 45,3%) and Vojvodina (19,6 thousand or 41,3%). The total
population (in country and abroad) of Central Serbia was 5783745, and in Vojvodina 2091635. In the intercensual period, the
population of Central Serbia decreased by 25,2 thousand, and it increased by 77,7 thousand in Vojvodina. These dynamics are
contrary to the dynamics in the previous intercensual period (1981-1991), when the number of inhabitants of Central Serbia was
increased (114,4 thousand, 91,6 out of which was in the country) and of Vojvodina was decreased (by 20,9 thousand, 2,8 out of
which was in the country).
The second part of the article analyses the population dynamics of municipalities and settlements. In the intercensual period of
1991-2002, three quarters of municipalities (120 out of 161) and four fifths of settlements (3835 out 4705), there was a negative
population growth rate. As a rule, these are municipalities and settlements with a relatively large share of refugees and IDPs.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2002
godina XL
Predojevi, Jelena
TRADICIONALNI BRANI I PORODINI ODNOSI ALBANSKOG STANOVNITVA SA KOSOVA I
METOHIJE U SVETLU ZAKONIKA LJEKE DUKADJINIJA
TRADITIONAL MARRIAGE AND FAMILY RELATIONS OF THE ALBANIAN POPULATION FROM KOSOVO
AND METOHIA IN THE LIGHT OF LEKA DUKAJINI CODE
129-146
K.r.: Zakonik Ljeke Dukadjinija, Albanci, brak, porodica, ena
K.w.: Leka Dukajini Code, Albanians, marriage, family, woman
Zakonik Ljeke Dukadjinija (ZLD) je umnogome uticao na nain ivota albanskog stanovnitva. On predstavlja skup pravila i normi
kojima su oni uredjivali svoje odnose, a smatra se da to delom ine i danas. S obzirom da ZLD obuhvata skoro sve socijalne,
ekonomske i moralne sfere ivota, u radu su analizirane oblasti koje doprinose upoznavanju sa uslovima u kojima se razvijalo
stanovnitvo na Kosovu i Metohiji, kao to su organizacija patrijarhalne porodice, brani odnosi, poloaj ene, nasledjivanje i slino.
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Patrijarhalni poredak drutvenog uredjenja kod Albanaca je i danas prisutan, naroito na selu, a ponegde i u gradu, i pored ubrzanih
procesa urbanizacije i industrijalizacije. Oblici tog patrijarhalnog ivota se ogledaju kroz zadravanje institucije zadrune porodice,
ija je karakteristika veliki broj lanova, zajedniki posed i sredstva za proizvodnju, zajednika proizvodnja i potronja, kao i
zajedniko stanovanje. Veliki broj autora je miljenja da se u etno-psihi kosovskog oveka jo uvek nalaze koreni volje i simpatije
prema zadruzi.
Zadrugom upravlja njen domain, a njegova vlast, iako ustanovljena u interesu kolektiva, predstavlja ogranienje individualne
slobode lanova porodice, jer se od njih oekuje da potuju volju glave porodice. Zadruna porodica u oima drugih je predstavljala
siguran oblik ivota. Obezbedjivala je egzistenciju svojih lanova. Obiajno pravo je nastalo i razvijalo se pod surovim uslovima
ivota, kodifikovalo nain ivota i pri tome se zanemarivala individualnost, a forsirao kolektiv, velike porodice, solidarnost i
pokornost autoritetu. Ceo ZLD proima religiozni duh, koji se najvidljivije izraava kod institucije braka. Takodje, on u najgori
poloaj stavlja enu, koja nije cenjena kao linost, nije imala pravo odluivanja i to je vie zapostavljala sebe u interesu mua, dece i
porodice, to je vie muke dece rodila, to je u porodici bila vie cenjena. Takvo diskriminativno tretiranje ena se smatra sastavnim
delom "pogleda" na svet albanskog drutva. U ivotu koji je eni donosio malo zadovoljstva, a veoma mnogo patnje, frustracija,
odbijanja i ponienja, jedini smisao ivljenja predstavljalo je radjanje i odgajanje dece. Medjutim, postavlja se pitanje da li je i koliko
ena, zapostavljana, bez uticaja van porodice, slabo obrazovana i nepripremljena za ivot, sposobna za ulogu majke. Ako je ona prvi
vaspita dece, a pri tome je neuka, kako moe da se oekuje obrazovanje i progres. Takodje se navodi da se ena smatra nosiocem, tj.
uvarem tradicionalnih vrednosti, iako su one okrenute protiv nje same. Na novitete ene gledaju sa velikim nepoverenjem i oprezom
i prihvatie ih jedino ako su sigurne da one nee biti odgovorne za ugroavanje kontinuiteta tradicionalnog naina ivota i interesa
srodnika.
The Leka Dukajini Code (LDC) influenced the way of life of Albanian population to a great extent. It represents a set of rules and
norms by which they regulated their relations, and it is believed that they still do so presently as well to some extent. Taking into
consideration that LDC includes almost all social, economic and moral spheres of life, this paper analyzes the fields which contribute
to the familiarization with the conditions in which the Kosovo and Metohia population developed, such as the organization of the
patriarchal family, marriage relations, the position of women, inheritance, and similar.
The patriarchy with Albanians is still present today, especially in the villages, and here and there in towns, despite the escalated
process of urbanization and industrialization. Manifestations of this patriarchal way of life are reflected through the maintenance of
the institutions of family clans, whose characteristics are a large number of families, mutual property and production means, mutual
production and consumption as well as communal living. A large number of authors believes that in the ethno-psyche of every
Albanian there are still roots of will and sympathy towards clans.
A clan is governed by its head, and his authority, although established on the interests of the group, presents limited individual
freedom for the members of the family because it is expected from them to respect the will of the head of the family. Family clans in
the eyes of others represents a secure way of life. Common law arose and developed under cruel life conditions, codified the way of
life and in that way neglected individuality yet imposed the group, large families, solidarity and submissiveness to authority. The
whole LDC is imbued with religious spirit, which is most obviously expressed with the institution of marriage. It also puts the
woman in the worst position, who is not respected as a women, who has no right in decision making, and the more she neglected
herself in interest of her husband, children and family, the more male children she gave birth to, the more she was respected in the
family. Such discriminatory treatment of women is considered an integral part of the view on life of Albanian society. In a life
which brought little satisfaction to the woman, and much suffering, frustration, rejection and humiliation, the only meaning of life
would represent giving birth and raising children. However, the following question is imposed: how much a woman, neglected,
without influence outside the family, poorly educated and unprepared for life, is capable for the role of a mother. If she is the first
tutor of the children, and in addition uneducated, how can education and progress be expected. It is also stated that the woman is
regarded as the bearer, namely guardian of traditional values, although they are turned against herself. Women regard the innovations
with great distrust and cautiousness and will accept it only if they are sure that they will not be responsible for endangering the
continuity of the traditional way of life and interests of her relatives.
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/2002
godina XL
Raevi, Mirjana i Boko Mijatovi
ZAKON O FINANSIJSKOJ PODRCI PORODICI SA DECOM
147-154
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/2002
godina XL
Sekuli, Ljiljana
PRIMENA KLASTER ANALIZE U ISTRAIVANJU DEMOGRAFSKE STAROSTI STANOVNITVA
154-171
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Predojevi, Jelena
ESTI GERONTOLOSKI KONGRES JUGOSLAVIJE "STARENJE I STAROST ZA BEZBEDNI I AKTIVNI
IVOT", VRNJAKA BANJA, 12-16. MAJ 2002.
171-178
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prikaz
broj 1-4/2002
godina XL
Gavrilovi, Ana
MILO MACURA (ur.) "NASELJA I STANOVNITVO OBLASTI BRANKOVIA 1455."
179-191
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prikaz
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godina XL
Banievi, Milo
EDICIJA "PLANIRANJE PORODICE"
191-194
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prikaz
broj 1-4/2002
godina XL
Predojevi, Jelena
MARTINE CORIJN AND ERIK KLIJZING (eds.) "TRANSITION TO ADULTHOOD IN EUROPE"
194-199
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prikaz
broj 1-4/2002
godina XL
urev, Branislav S.
ZBORNIK MATICE SRPSKE ZA DRUTVENE NAUKE BR. 110-111
199-202
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lanak
broj 1-4/2003
godina XLI
Vojkovi, Gordana
STANOVNITVO KAO ELEMENT REGIONALIZACIJE SRBIJE
POPULATION AS AN ELEMENT OF REGIONALIZATION OF SERBIA
7-43
K.r.: regionalizacija, demogeografska regionalizacija, stanovnitvo, Srbija
K.w.: regionalization, demo-geographic regionalization, population, Serbia
Regionalizacija je izuzetno sloena i kontradiktorna materija, i istovremeno u uslovima ubrzanih promena u svetu poslednjih godina
postaje veoma izazovna. Smatra se da je danas regionalizacija nezaobilazna strateka akcija usmeravanja razvojnih procesa u
prostoru. Jedan od ciljeva regionalizacije je da se dovedu u sklad ekonomski, demografski i socijalni razvojni procesi. Nesklad
tokova demografske tranzicije sa ekonomskim razvojem izazvao je u prostoru Srbije upeatljive promene i sloene razvojne
probleme, koji ukazuju da se u pristupu njenoj regionalizaciji duna panja mora posvetiti demogeografskim pojavama i procesima.
Polazei od toga ovaj rad je imao za cilj da identifikuje probleme regionalne diferencijacije geoprostora i odredi mesto i ulogu
demogeografske regionalizacije u postupku naunog poznavanja, prostornog diferenciranja i organizovanja geoprostora; postavi
optu definiciju regionalizma sa demogeografskog aspekta, u smislu teorijskog koncepta zasnovanog na empirijskim istraivanjima,
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kako bi se dobio nauni okvir za ispitivanje i funkcionalan pristup poznavanju savremenih problema razvoja i organizovanja
stanovnitva; opredeli se za principe i elemente, i ukae na sadraj, svrhu i ciljeve izdvajanja demogeografskih regiona, na nain koji
bi bio adekvatan planiranju regionalnog razvoja i ureenju geoprostora. Ovako postavljen cilj istraivanja zahtevao je da se ukupna
problematika demogeografske regionalizacije postavi u jedan iri teorijski, ali i analitiki kontekst, koji je definisan
meuzavisnostima demogeografskog sa drugim regionalnim sistemima, kao i sa globalnim pitanjima regionalizma i puteva
integracije.
Demogeografska regionalizacija izvedena je na osnovu brojnih istraivakih nalaza i odgovarajuih empirijskih rezultata, sa idejom
da poslui kao osnova za makroregionalizaciju, optegeografsku ili administrativno-upravnu regionalizaciju, kao "podloga" za
prostorno planiranje ili razvojnu politiku. Izvrena su globalna i posebna sagledavanja brojnih relevantnih komponenata
regionalizacije, a povoljnu okolnost i znaajan oslonac predstavljala su dosadanja istraivanja: postojea "ema stalnih rejona za
demografska istraivanja" i studija Geografskog instituta "Demografske osnove regionalizacije Srbije". Za razliku od demografskih
regionalizacija, u radu se insistira na demogeografskom kao kompleksnijem pristupu, i konkretan doprinos ovog rada upravo se
odnosi na definisanje osnovnih principa i elemenata regionalizacije u ijem se postupku delimitiranja regiona, pored demografskih,
artikulie i itav splet geografskih, prirodnogegrafskih, antropogeo-grafskih, prostorno-ekonomskih i prostorno-funkcijskih veza i
odnosa, pojava i procesa.
Mada to u samom radu nije prikazano, za potrebe istraivanja izvedena su rejoniranja razliitih demografskih, prostornodemografskih i demoekonomskih obeleja, koja su bila u funkciji i trebalo da pokau u kojoj meri, u kom pravcu, prema kojim
principima, i na koji nain je mogue sprovesti demogeografsku regionalizaciju Srbije. Treba naglasiti da veina istraivanja na temu
demografske regionalizacije ukazuje da je znaaj pojedinih elemenata regionalizacije promenljiv i da je zavisan od regionalnog
nivoa, kao i da preobraaj populacije tokom demografske tranzicije namee potrebu za uvoenjem novih indikatora i elemenata
regionalizacije. Uzimajui u obzir sve navedene elemente, prostorno-funkcijske veze i odnose, ostvarenu prostorno-demografsku
strukturu Srbije i tendencije demografskih tokova, kao i prostornim planom izdvojene makroregionalne centre, utvrujui
homogenost demografskog razvoja razliitih podruja, ali i istraujui migracione tokove pod uticajem pull i push faktora tokom
procesa industrijalizacije, urbanizacije i deagrarizacije, prezentirana je jedna mogua demogeografska regionalizacija Srbije.
Izdvojeni regioni poseduju homogenost u smislu funkcijske povezanosti, jer svaki predstavlja podruje koje je prostorno-funkcijski
vezano za regionalni centar; i heterogenost strukture, jer svaki region predstavlja simbiozu urbanog, ruralnog i prelaznog tipa
struktura, koje su proizvod diferenciranja razvojnih i demografskih procesa, i koje impliciraju odgovarajui demografski razvoj,
dinamiku i sastav stanovnitva.
Cilj ovog rada je bio da da teorijsko-metodoloke okvire i jednu iru osnovu za integrisanje odreenih prostornih jedinica u
jedinstvene demogeografske regione Srbije, koji bi dalje bili u funkciji sloenijih regionalnih istraivanja i regionalnog planiranja.
Sve preko toga (posebno sa aspekta mikro ili makrorejoniranja) zahtevalo bi timski rad veeg broja strunjaka, obiman statistikoanalitiki i istraivaki posao, kao i dobro poznavanje raznovrsnih lokalnih prilika, istorijsko-geografskih i civilizacijskih zbivanja,
koje esto trae odstupanje od dosledne primene strogo formulisanih kriterija i merila za regionalizaciju. To znai da date predloge
treba shvatiti kao jednu naelnu emu, opti okvir mogue demogeografske regionalizacije Srbije na osnovu meu-uslovljenosti
prirodnih i ekonomskih celina, njihove geografsko-saobraajne i ekonomsko-gravitacijske povezanosti, razvojnih procesa i
demografskih tokova. Svaki konkretan zahtev u buduoj praksi planiranja ili organizacije geoprostora iziskivao bi i konkretno
definisanje ciljeva i principa regionalizacije.
Regionalization is an exceptionally complex and contradictory matter, and at the same time becoming very challenging in the last
few years in conditions of accelerated changes in the world. It is believed that regionalization today is an unavoidable strategic action
of directing development processes on a territory. One of the aims of regionalization is to bring economic, demographic and social
development processes into accord. Discordance of demographic transition courses with economic development caused prominent
changes and complex development problems on the territory of Serbia, which indicate that appropriate attention should be devoted to
demographic occurrences and processes in the approach to its regionalization.
Proceeding from this fact, the goal of this paper was to identify the problems of regional differentiation of geoterritory and determine
the place and role of demographic regionalization in the procedure of scientific knowledge, territory differentiation and organization
of geoterritory; to set the general definition of regionalism from the demographic aspect, in the sense of theoretical concept based on
empirical research, so as to obtain a scientific framework for research and functional approach to recognizing contemporary problems
of development and organizing population; to decide on principles and elements, and point out to the content, purpose and goals of
identifying demo geographic regions, in a way which would be adequate for planning regional development and organizing
geoterritories. Such a set research goal required that the total problem of demo geographic regionalization is set on a wider
theoretical, but analytical context, which is defined by mutual dependence of demo geographic with other regional systems, as well
as with global questions of regionalism and integration ways.
Demo geographic regionalization is carried out on the basis of numerous research findings and corresponding empirical results, with
an idea that it serves as a basis for macro regionalization, general geographic or administrative-management regionali-zation, as a
"foundation" for territory planning or development policy. Global and specific perception of numerous relevant components of
regionalization had been carried out, with a favorable circumstance and significant basis being the following research up to now:
"Outline of constant regions for demographic research" and the study of the Geographic Institute "Demographic bases for
regionalization of Serbia". Unlike demographic regionalizations, this paper insisted on demo geographic as a more complex
approach, and a concrete contribution of this paper refers to defining basic principles and elements of regionalization whereby in the
process of delimiting regions, numerous geographic, natural geographic, anthrop geographic, territory-economical and territory
functional relations and connections, occurrences and processes were articulated apart from demographic.
Although not shown in the paper, regionalization of various demographic, territorial-demographic and demo economic traits were
carried out for the purpose of research, which were to show to what extent, in what direction, according to which principles and in
what way it is possible to carry out demographic regionalization in Serbia. It should be noted that most research on the topic of
demographic regionalization indicate that the importance of certain elements of regionalization is variable and that is dependent on
the regional level, and that the population change during demographic transition imposes a necessity for introducing new indicators
and elements of regionalization. Having in mind all the stated elements, territorial-functional relations, realized territorial-
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demographic structure of Serbia and tendencies of demographic courses, as well as territorial plan of isolated macro regional centers,
confirming the homogeneity of demographic development of various regions, but also researching migration flows under the
influence of push and pull factors during the process of industrialization, urbanization and land reclamation, the only possible demo
geographic regionalization of Serbia was presented. The isolated regions are homogeneous in the sense of functional
interdependence, because each represents a region which is territorially-functionally connected to a regional center; and
heterogeneous of structure, because each region represents a symbiosis of urban, rural and transitional type of structure, which are a
result of differentiation of development and demographic processes, and which imply a corresponding demographic development,
dynamics and composition of population.
The goal of this paper was to give theoretical-methodological frameworks and a broader basis for integration of certain territorial
units into unique demo geographic regions of Serbia, which would still be in the function of complex regional research and regional
planning. Anything more than that (especially from the aspect of micro or macro regionalization) would require a team work of a
larger number of experts, an extensive statistical-analytical and research project, as well as sound knowledge of various local
conditions, historical-geographic and civilization events which often require deviation from consistent application of formulated
criteria and measures for regionalization. This means that the given proposals should be understood as a principled scheme, a general
framework of the demo geographic regionalization of Serbia on the basis of interdependence of natural and economic wholes, their
geographic-transportation and economic-gravitational connection, development processes and demographic courses. Every concrete
requirement in future practice of planning or organization of geo-territory would require defining goals and principles of
regionalization as well.
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godina XLI
Kuburovi, Ankica
STAVOVI STUDENATA RELEVANTNI ZA BUDUE REPRODUKTIVNO PONAANJE
STUDENT STANDPOINTS RELEVANT FOR FUTURE REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR
43-64
K.r.: fertilitet, roditeljstvo, studenti
K.w.: fertility, parenthood, students
U radu su interpretirani stavovi studenata o motivisanosti roditeljstva, planiranju i odluivanju o raanju, o uslovljenosti braka i
roditeljstva, o sloenosti i odgovornosti roditeljske uloge, o poznavanju uslovljenosti i posledica problema nedovoljnog raanja, u
cilju upoznavanja glavnih osobenosti njihovog mogueg reproduktivnog ponaanja. Analizirani stavovi su deo jednog obimnijeg i
obuhvatnijeg istraivanja, sprovedenog na uzorku od 1494 ispitanika (1000 srednjokolaca i 494 studenta) u etiri najvea regionalna
centra Beogradu, Novom Sadu, Kragujevcu i Niu. Orijentisanost samo na stavove studenata jeste u cilju potpunije analize inae
bogate empirjske grae, to je dopustivo usled injenice da su studenti po starosno-situacionom obeleju blii otpoinjanju raanja.
Znaajna je spremnost i elja studenata da postanu roditelji, ali to je samo jedna od njihovih viestrukih ivotnih aspiracija (vanost
partnerstva, profesionalnog angaovanja). Namera je da se uskladi realizacija najbitnijih uloga, to zapravo ukazuje na prilino
ujednaenu vanost u zadovoljenju osnovnih individualnih potreba. Osim toga, potreba za roditeljstvom je dominantno emotivna i
altruistika, to se moe zadovojiti i raanjem samo jednog deteta. Mogue reproduktivne norme koje su usmerene na raanje
dvoje dece, pri emu su one vie od aktuelnih stopa fertiliteta, ali i neto nie normativno odreenje oekivanja u odnosu na eljeni
broj dece, kao i znaajna okrenutost ka braku i roditeljstvu i postojanje saznanja o problemu nemogunosti proste reprodukcije i
svesti o drutvenoj potrebi za reprodukovanjem stanovnitva predstavljaju prostor za realizaciju mera podsticanja raanja i
rehabilitacije roditeljstva.
Mogui model reprodukcije nije bitnije polno uslovljen, jer uoene diferenciranosti u uestalosti pojedinih stavova ne ukazuju na
uobliavanje "enskog" i "mukog" reproduktivnog modela. S druge strane, uoavaju se mogue kvalitativne promene u odnosu
meu partnerima koje se ispoljavaju u ujednaenijem angaovanju u kontroli i odluivanju o raanju, kao i ujendnaenijoj
zastupljenosti materinstva i oinstva u ostvarenju osnovnih detetovih potreba.
This paper deals with the various standpoints of students on their motivation for parenthood, planning and deciding on birth giving,
influence between marriage and parenthood, parent role complexity and responsibility, on the knowledge of effect and consequences
of the problem of insufficient birth giving, with an aim of getting to know the main characteristics of their possible reproductive
behavior. The analyzed standpoints are part of a more comprehensive and inclusive research, carried out on a sample of 1494
surveyed persons (1000 secondary-school pupils and 494 students) in four biggest regional centers Belgrade, Novi Sad, Kragujevac
and Ni. The orientation only to students standpoints had an aim to more completely analyze the already abundant empirical
material, which is acceptable due to the fact that students are closer to beginning of birth giving according to their age-situation
characteristic.
The willingness and desire of the students to become parents is significant, but this is only one of their varied life aspirations
(importance of partnership, professional engagement). The intention is to bring into accordance the realization of the most
important roles, which actually indicates to a fairly uniform importance in satisfying the basic individual needs. Apart from that, the
need for parenthood is dominantly emotional and altruistic, which can be satisfied by having only one child. Possible reproductive
norms which are directed to having two children, whereby they are higher than the current fertility rates, but also somewhat lower
normatively determined expectations in relation to the desired number of children, as well as a significant orientation towards
marriage and parenthood and the existence of the knowledge on the problem of the impossibility of simple reproduction and
conscience of social need for population reproduction represent a gap for realization of measures for motivating birth giving and
parenthood rehabilitation.
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The possible reproduction model is not significantly determined by gender, because the noted differentiation in frequency of certain
standpoints does not indicate to formation of "female" and "male" reproductive models. On the other hand, possible qualitative
changes in relations between partners are noted which are manifested in more uniform engagement in birth control and decision
making, as well as a more uniform representation of motherhood and fatherhood in realizing the basic needs of the child.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2003
godina XLI
Bobi, Mirjana
PREKOMPONOVANJE BRAKA, PARTNERSTVA I PORODICE U SAVREMENIM DRUTVIMA
REORGANIZATION OF MARRIAGE, RELATIONSHIPS AND FAMILY IN CONTEMPORARY SOCIETY
65-92
K.r.: brak, partnerstvo, porodica, savremena drutva, ene
K.w.: marriage, partnership, family, contemporary society, women
U radu se opisuju savremene promene u braku, partnerstvu i porodici u evropskim populacijama, a zatim se prikazuje njihova
evolucija od poslednjih dekada XX veka pa do danas, kao i razliiti oblici i tipovi u kojima se ispoljava pluralitet savremenih
partnerskih zajednica. Drugi cilj ovog priloga jeste da prui jedan iri teorijsko-hipotetiki, eksplanatorni okvir za razumevanje onoga
to se zbiva u stanovnitvu (na pojavnoj ravni), ali sada u kontekstu savremenih drutava. Tu se uvode tri varijable: makro
(paradigma modernizacije, odnosno socijetalnih, tj. strukturalnih i kulturnih promena), mikro (paradigma: resursi-ogranienjaponaanje) i mezo (razlike u drutvenom i demografskom razvitku drava severne, zapadne, june i centralne i istone Evrope (bivih
socijalistikih zemalja u tranziciji).
U radu je dato i oprezno predvianje ta se u budunosti moe oekivati u vezi sa: empirijski dokumentovanom raznolikou ivotnih
aranmana evropske populacije Zapada, ali i Istoka, kao i relevantnim demografskim posledicama. Na makronivou (paradigma
struktura/kulltura) odgovori zavise od brzine kojom e se odvijati dva glavna drutvena procesa: 1) razvitak "evropskog drutva" i 2)
raanje "svetskog" (globalnog) drutva. Veina autora izvodi zakljuak o konvergenciji drutvenog i demografskog razvitka na
prostoru Zapadne, ali ne i Istone Evrope (a posebno Balkana). Ovaj zakljuak se tie ak i drava junoevropskog regiona, s
obzirom da je neizvesno kojim e se pravcima i brzinom odvijati njihovo ukljuivanje u Evropsku Uniju.
U vezi sa trendom opadajaeg fertiliteta, moe se oekivati nastavak tendencije i u budunosti, na itavom evropskom prostoru, a
podravae ga socijetalne promene (post)modernizacije, individualizacije i racionalnog ponaanja, tako da e u veini sluajeva
roditelji zadovoljavati svoje potrebe sa samo jednim detetom. Nasuprot, porodine forme i ivotni stilovi stanovnitva odraavae
verovatno i u budue razlike izmeu drava severa i zapada Evrope sa jedne, juga sa druge i centralne i istone Evrope (bivih
socijalistikih zemalja) sa tree strane.
Brana spremnost, stilovi partnerstva, kao i tenja ka formiranju porodice zavisie od individualnih odluka, koje e proizlaziti iz
linih resursa i ograniavajuih faktora (na makro, mezo i mikro planu). Na agregatnom nivou stanovnitava, rezultat e biti
polarizacija izmeu ne-porodinih i porodinih domainstava. Drutveni uslovi pozne modernosti (poveanje rizika, nesigurnosti
radnog mesta, kriza drave blagostanja) kao i globalizacije verovatno e doprineti pojaavanju te polarizacije. Isti zakljuak se moe
izvesti i za grupu bivih socijalistikih drava Centralne i Istone Evrope (i Balkana), iji je sada kljuni problem dovravanje
procesa transformacije ka trinoj privredi.
This paper describes contemporary changes in marriage, relationships and family in European populations, and then their evolution
from the last decade of the twentieth century till present day, as well as various forms and types, in which plurality of contemporary
partnership unions is revealed. The other goal of this supplement was to provide a wider theoretical-hypothetical, explanatory
framework for understand-ing what is happening in population (on appearance level), but now in the context of contemporary
societies. Three variables are introduced: macro (paradigm of modernization, namely social, i.e structural and cultural changes),
micro (paradigm: resources-limitations-behavior) and mezzo (differences in social and demographic development of countries of
North, Western, South and Central and Eastern Europe former socialistic countries in transition).
Cautious predictions on what could be expected in future concerning: empirical documented differences of living arrangements of
European populations of the West, but also of the East, as well as relative demographic consequences. On the macro level (paradigm
structure/culture) the responses depend on the rate the two main social processes will develop: 1) development of "European society",
and 2) the birth of "world" (global) society. Most of the authors conclude on the convergence of social and demographic
development on the territory of Western, but not Eastern Europe (and especially the Balkans). This conclusion concerns even the
countries of the South European region, considering that it is uncertain in which direction and speed will their integration into the
European Union develop.
With regards to the trend of decreasing fertility, a continuance of existing secular tendencies may be expected in future as well, even
on the whole European territory, and that it will be supported by social changes of (post) modernization, individualization and
rational behavior, so that it will become a general model. For now it is evident that convergence of social and demographic
development may be demonstrated on the territory of Western but not Eastern Europe as well (and especially of the Balkans). The
later is also valid when the Southern European region is in question, considering that it is uncertain in which direction and at what
speed will their integration into the European Union develop.
With regards to the trend of decreasing fertility, a continuance of tendencies may be expected in future as well, on the whole
European territory, and that it will be supported by social changes of (post)modernization, individualization and rational behavior, so
that in most cases parents will satisfy their needs with only one child. On the contrary, family forms and life styles will probably
reflect differences between countries of the North and Western Europe in future as well on the one hand, and Southern on the other
hand, and Central and Eastern Europe (former socialistic countries) on the third hand.
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Readiness for marriage, partnership styles, as well as aspirations to forming families will depend on individual decisions, which will
result from personal resources and limiting factors (macro, mezzo and micro). On the aggregate level of population, the result will be
polarization between non-family and family households. Social conditions of foregoing modernization (increase of risks, job
uncertainty, country prosperity crisis) as well as globalization will probably contribute to increasing the polarization process. The
same conclusion may be derived for the group of former socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe (and the Balkans) as well,
whose key problem now is finishing the process of transformation towards market economy.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
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godina XLI
Penev, Goran
MORTALITY TRENDS IN SERBIA DURING THE 1990S
TRENDOVI MORTALITETA U SRBIJI TOKOM DEVEDESETIH
93-132
K.w.: mortality, life expectancy, mortality by age and sex, deaths by cause, Serbia
K.r.: mortalitet, oekivano trajanje ivota, smrtnost po starosti i polu, uzroci smrti, Srbija
Troubled historical events from the 1990s considerably influenced the latest demographic trends in Serbia (excluding Kosovo and
Metohija). In the domain of mortality, these trends were reflected through the manifestation of many unfavorable changes. Such
mortality changes in Serbia were relatively short-lived and considerably less pronounced than in most countries in transition,
especially in comparison to some former Soviet republics. Taking into consideration the scale and duration of the general social crisis
in Serbia, we could evaluate these aggravations as moderate. On the other hand, improvements of mortality trends that arose during
the 1990s were considerably less pronounced than in other European countries, especially in comparison to improvements that were
realized in some other countries in the second half of the 1990s.
During the 1990s, the annual number of deaths as well as the crude death rates continued increasing. The crude death rate of 13.8 per
1000 in the year 2000 represents the maximum in the last 50 years. Consequently, at the end of the 20th century, Serbia (excluding
Kosovo and Metohija) is above the European average according to crude mortality rates, and observed by countries, higher rates
were registered only in a few former socialist countries.
During the 1990s, significant changes in age-specific mortality rates were not realized. The relatively greatest decrease was in infant
mortality rate (from 21.8 in 1991 to 11.7 per 1000 in 2001). Despite the unexpectedly favorable trends, Serbia is considerably behind
many other European countries in which the infant mortality rate is reduced to a very low level (under 5 per 1000 live births).
As for 1991 and 1992, and partly for 1993, a rapid increase of younger adult population deaths was noted. Such trends, though, did
not cause considerable changes either in the total number of deaths or in the life expectancy.
The mortality of older adult population (40-59) at the end of the observed decade is almost identical to the one at the beginning of the
1990s. The same trend was present in the old population (60 and over), although the mortality level of the elderly population
decreased slowly (75-84) or stagnated (85+). Such a mortality trend of the old has been present in Serbia since the 1970s, which is
opposed to the changes in many developed countries in which very significant results in lowering old-age mortality were achieved in
the last decades.
The mortality of the female population is lower in Serbia as well and the recent changes were mainly directed towards decreasing sex
differences. The changes were considerably more favorable with the male population than with the female, especially when it comes
to the older adult and old populations. Such trends represent a turnover in relation to the 1980s.
In the year 2001 in Serbia, the life expectancy at birth for the male population was 69.7 years, and for the female population 75.1
years. In relation to 1991 the expectation of life at birth has been prolonged for both sexes (1.15 years for the men and 0.38 years for
the women). Compared with the European average, the life expectancy in Serbia is 2.6 years lower for males and 5.3 years lower for
females. Since the extended life expectancy from the nineties was considerably under the European average, the rank of Serbia on the
European LE list was lowered. This primarily refers to the male population, while with as regards to the female population, Serbia is
still in the group of 10 European countries with the shortest life expectancy at birth.
No significant changes were noted in Serbia with as regards to deaths by cause. At the end of the observed period (1999-2001) the
cause of death for over half of the deceased (56.1%) were the diseases of the circulatory system. In the same three-year period,
neoplasm represented the cause of death for nearly every sixth person (17.6%). Similar percentages were recorded at the beginning of
the period (1990-1992) as well.
The next on the list of major causes of death were violent deaths, but their number was considerably lower (4.3%). Despite the armed
NATO intervention lasting several months in 1999, the percentage of violent deaths remained at a low level, not only in relation to
the beginning of the period (5.8%), but also in relation to the European average, and especially in relation to some former Soviet
republics. The percentage of infectious and parasitic diseases was also very low (0.5%). This means that the worsening of conditions
that influence the general epidemiological situation did not cause a considerable increase of deaths from this group of diseases, and
also that the number of the infected and the number of deaths due to AIDS are low in Serbia.
At the end of the twentieth century, the so-called symptoms and ill-defined conditions still represented a relatively large percentage
(8.4%) of deaths by cause. It is, in relation to the state at the beginning of the period (6.2%), even increased, and considerably higher
than in the most developed countries (about 1%). This points to the unsatisfactory quality of data on mortality, but also to the need to
use the results of the analysis of mortality according to deaths by cause with caution.
Burni istorijski dogaaji iz 1990-ih znaajno su uticali na najnovije demografske trendove u Srbiji (bez Kosova i Metohije). U
domenu mortaliteta oni su se odrazili kroz pojavu mnogih nepovoljnih trendova. U Srbiji su takvi trendovi mortaliteta bili relativno
kratki i znatno manjeg intenziteta nego u veini zemalja u tranziciji, a posebno u odnosu na neke bive sovjetske republike. S
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obzirom na razmere i trajanje opte drutvene krize u Srbiji, ta pogoranja se mogu oceniti kao umerena. S druge strane, poboljanja
mortalitetnih trendova do kojih je dolo tokom 1990-ih, bila su znatno manje izraena nego u veini ostalih evropskih zemalja, a
posebno u odnosu na poboljanja koja su u nekim zemljama u tranziciji ostvarena u drugoj polovini 1990-ih.
Tokom 1990-ih nastavljen je trend poveanja godinjeg broja umrlih kao i opte stope mortaliteta. U 2000. godini vrednost opte
stope mortaliteta od 13,8 predstavljala je maksimum u poslednjih 50 godina. Tako je krajem 20. veka Srbija (bez Kosova i
Metohije) prema stopi mortaliteta iznad evropskog proseka, a posmatrano po zemljama, vie stope su registrovane samo u nekoliko
bivih socijalistikih zemalja.
Tokom 1990-ih godina nisu ostvarene bitnije promene u smrtnosti po starosti. Relativno najvee je smanjenje smrtnosti odojadi (sa
21,8 u 1991. na 11,7 u 2001. godini). I pored neoekivano povoljnih kretanja u pogledu smrtnosti odojadi Srbija prilino
zaostaje u odnosu na mnoge evropske zemlje u kojima je ona svedena na vrlo nizak nivo (ispod 5 promila).
Za 1991. i 1992, a delimino i za 1993. godinu, vezuje se i nagli porast umrlih kod mlaeg sredovenog stanovnitva. Takva kretanja
se, ipak, nisu bitnije odrazila na promene u ukupnom broju umrlih, odnosno na duinu oekivanog trajanja ivota.
Smrtnost starijeg sredovenog stanovnitva (40-59) je krajem posmatrane decenije gotovo identina onoj s poetka 1990-ih. Istovetan
trend je bio prisutan i kod starog stanovnitva (60 ili vie), s tim to je kod najstarijih nivo smrtnosti lagano opadao (75-84) ili
stagnirao (85+). Takav trend mortaliteta starih je u Srbiji prisutan od 1970-ih godina, to je u suprotnosti sa promenama u mnogim
razvijenim zemljama u kojima su poslednjih decenija postignuti veoma znaajni rezultati u sniavanju smrtnosti starih.
I u Srbiji vai zakonitost o nioj smrtnosti enskog stanovnitva, a skoranje promene su uglavnom bile usmerene ka smanjivanju
razlika po polu. Promene su bile znatno povoljnije kod mukog nego kod enskog stanovnitva, i to posebno kod starijeg
sredovenog i starog stanovnitva. Takva kretanja predstavljaju preokret u odnosu na 1980-e godine.
U Srbiji je 2001. godine oekivano trajanje ivota pri ivorodjenju za muko stanovnitvo iznosilo 69,7 godina, a za ensko 75,1
godina. U odnosu na 1991. srednje trajanja ivota je produeno za oba pola (1,15 godinu za muko i 0,38 godina za ensko). Srbija, u
poreenju sa evropskim prosekom, zaostaje kod mukog za oko 2,6 godina, a kod enskog gotovo 5,3 godine. S obzirom da je
produenje oekivanog trajanja ivota iz 1990-ih znatno ispod evropskog proseka, dolo je i do pogoranja ranga Srbije na evropskoj
listi zemalja prema duini oekivanog trajanja ivota. To se pre svega odnosi na muke, dok se za ene Srbija i dalje se nalazi u grupi
od 10 evropskih zemalja sa najkraim oekivanim trajanjem ivota.
U Srbiji nije bilo bitnijih promena ni u pogledu uzroka smrti. Krajem posmatranog perioda (1999-2001) za preko polovine umrlih
(56,1%) je kao uzrok smrti navedeno neko od oboljenja iz grupe bolesti krvotoka. U istom trogodinjem periodu, tumor je
predstavljao uzrok smrti za gotovo svaku estu osobu (17,6%). Slini procentni udeli su zabeleeni i poetkom perioda (1990-1992).
Sledei na rang listi osnovnih uzroka smrti su nasilne smrti, ali je njihov udeo bitno manji (4,3%). Uprkos viemesene oruane
intervencije NATO-a iz 1999, udeo nasilnih smrti je ostao na niskom nivou, i to ne samo u odnosu na poetak perioda (5,8%), ve i u
odnosu na evropski prosek, a posebno u odnosu na neke bive sovjetske republike. Takoe je i udeo infektivnih i parazitarnih bolesti
vrlo nizak (0,5%). To znai da se pogoranje uslova koji utiu na optu epidemioloku situaciju nije direktno odrazio na znaajno
poveanje umiranja od ove grupe bolesti, a takoe i da je u Srbiji mala zastupljenost obolelih i umrlih od side.
Krajem 20. veka u Srbiji je jo uvek kod uzroka smrti relativno veliko uee tzv. nedovoljno definisanih stanja (8,4%). Ono je u
odnosu na stanje poetkom perioda (6,2%), ak i poveano, i znatno je vie nego u najrazvijenijim zemljama (oko 1%). To ukazuje
na nezadovoljavajui kvalitet podataka o mortalitetu, ali i na potrebu da se rezultati analize mortaliteta prema uzroku smrti moraju
razmatrati s rezervom.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2003
godina XLI
Morokvai, Mirjana
MIGRACIJE U EVROPI: ZABRINUTOST POVODOM PROIRENJA EVROPSKE UNIJE NA ISTOK
MIGRATIONS IN EUROPE: FEARS DUE TO THE ENLARGEMENT OF THE EU TO THE EAST
131-146
K.w.: migration, migration policy, enlargement of the European Union
K.r.: migracije, migraciona politika, proirenje Evropske unije
Evropska unija suoena je danas sa najveim proirenjem u svojoj istoriji: deset zemalja od kojih osam Srednje Evrope tzv. tampon
zona u prekomponovanju evropskog migracionog pejzaa - postae lanice Evropske Unije 2004. godine. I drugi kandidati se nadaju
da e joj se prikljuiti tokom narednih godina. Sve istono- i jugo-istonoevropske zemlje, ukljuujui i one koje nisu kandidati,
doivele su kraj bipolarnog sveta kao nadu u "povratak u Evropu".
Pomerajui svoje granice na istok, Evropska Unija, dok otvara vrata jednima, ini se da sve vise iskljuuje ove druge. Cilj da se
ostvari Evropa "kao prostor slobode, bezbednosti i pravde", Unija uslovljava nunou da se "migracioni tokovi sto bolje kontrolisu".
Perspektiva slobodnog kretanja na koje bi imali pravo pripadnici zemalja koje ulaze u Uniju neizostavno povlai za sobom i bojazni:
tako zemlje lanice EU "strepe" zbog posledica koje bi proirenje moglo da ima na imigracione tokove iz zemalja srednje i istone
Evrope ili prolaze kroz njih. Percepcija migranata kao ugroavajueg faktora inspirisala i uslove nametnute od strane Unije dravama
kandidatima u pogledu migracionih pitanja i koji se svode uglavnom na "zastitu" njenih novih istonih granica.
Meutim, za budue lanice Evropske Unije, obezbeenje hiljada kilometara njihovih istonih granica, donosi sobom prilian broj
drugih problema. Naime, te zemlje strepe od posledica restriktivnih mera koje moraju da uvedu: kako za mnogobrojne ekonomske i
porodine veze koje su uspostavljene i odravane jos tokom perioda socijalizma, tako i za saradnju skorijeg datuma sa susedima koji
nisu kandidati za ulazak u Uniju.
Izazov proirenja EU je dakle veoma razliit kad se radi o sadasnjim lanicama, o kandidatima koji treba da joj se uskoro prikljue ili
onima koji su zasad iskljueni iz procesa. Bojazni koje nisu uvek osnovane. Tako, posledice proirenja za koje se verovalo da e
destabilizovati Uniju zbog potencijalno velikih migracionih kretanja, izgleda da e u veoj meri biti destabilizujue za nove lanice
EU, naroito to se tie njihovih odnosa sa susedima iskljuenim iz proirenja.
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The European Union is confronted with the biggest enlargement in its history: ten states, among them eight middle European the so
called "buffer zone" in the new European migration landscape will become members in 2004. Other candidates hope to join in the
coming years. For all Eastern and Eastern European countries, including those that are not candidates, the end of the bi-polar world
meant a hope of "return to Europe".
When shifting its borders to the East, the European Union both includes and excludes. The final objective to achieve Europe as "a
space of freedom, security and justice", is conditioned by the capacity and necessity to control the migratory flows. The prospect of
free circulation for the citizens of the new Union members entails also fears: the EU countries are afraid of the consequences the
enlargement would have on migratory flows from the countries of the Central and Eastern Europe and which transit through that
area. The perception of migrants as a threat inspired the conditions that the Union imposed on the candidate countries concerning
migration policy issues and which mostly focus on the protection of its Eastern borders.
For the future Union members however, protecting of the thousand of kilometers of their Eastern border, implies a number of quite
different problems. These countries are afraid of the impact the restrictive measures they are obliged to implement would have both
on many economic and family ties which have been maintained since the socialist period and on more recently engaged cooperation
with the neighbours which are not candidatdes.
The challenge of enlargement is different therefore for the EU members, for the candidate countries and for those who are for the
moment excluded from the process. The fears do not seem to be always grounded. Thus, the impact of enlargement which, it was
feared, could have been so destabilizing for the Union because of potentially large migtration flows, is more likely to be destabilizing
for the new candidate countries, especially concerning their relations with their neighbours excluded from the enlargement process.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2003
godina XLI
Komatina, Slavica
DOMINANTNE PREDSTAVE O STAROSTI
DOMINANT PERCEPTIONS ON THE AGE
147-160
K.w.: prejudices, stereotypes, old people, Belgrade population
K.r.: predrasude, stereotipi, stari, beogradska populacija
Savremeno razvijeno drutvo, uprkos injenici da konstantno i intenzivno stari, odlikuje se duboko ukorenjenim brojnim negativnim
stereotipima o starim ljudima i starosti kao ivotnom dobu.
Pruavanje dominantnih predstava o starosti beogradske populacije uzima u obzir kako univerzalni karakter negativnog konotiranja
starosti, tako i konkretan nepovoljan drutveni kontekst.
Delikatna problematika stereotipa o starosti i starima analizirana je preteno indirektno, preko pitanja o poetku starosti, prednostima
i tekoama sa kojima se suoavamo tokom starenja, prvom subjektivnom svesnom susretu sa sopstvenim starenjem, konceptom
idealne starosti, promenama osobina linosti kao i direktno preko pitanja o dominantnim negativnim predstavama koje preovlauju o
starim ljudima u naoj sredini.
Starenje se u beogradskoj sredini najee poistoveuje sa boleu i sa opadanjem fizikih potencijala, ali se pojavljuju i brojne druge
negativne kvalifikacije starosti. Rezultati istraivanja ukazuju na izraen ambivalentan stav prema starenju, na razliito doivljavanje
sopstvene od starosti drugih ljudi, na razliito tretiranje starosti meu polovima i na oiglednu averziju prema starim ljudima. To je i
oekivano, s obzirom na injenicu da se ivljenje i starenje danas odvijaju pod agresivnim uticajem savremene masovne kulture koja
afirmie kao dominantne vrednosti mladost, lepotu, fiziku snagu, zdravlje, dakle sve ono to je suprotno od starenja i starosti. S
druge strane, nae drutvo se danas, kao i u bliskoj prolosti, suoava sa izuzetnim politikim, ekonomskim i kulturnim tekoama
koje dovode do specifinih problema kod razliitih starosnih grupa, kao i do sniavanja nivoa meusobne trpeljivosti i tolerancije.
Atmosfera zaotravanja starih i pojave novih antagonizama prouzrokuje i intenziviranje meugeneracijskog nerazumevanja i
udaljavanja i stvara povoljnu klimu za odravanje razliitih predrasuda, pa i onih prema starenju.
I dok su predrasude same po sebi univerzalna socijalno-psiholoka kategorija, predrasude o starosti razlikuju se od ostalih po jednoj
posebnoj i veoma znaajnoj karakteristici njima se podsvesno prikrivaju neki iskonski strahovi i u njima potiskuju neka osnovna
pitanja smisla ljudske egzistencije, pa je negativno konotiranje starosti upravo kolektivno beanje od tih problema.
Contemporary developed society, despite the fact that it is constantly and intensively ageing, is characterized by deeply rooted
numerous negative stereotypes on old people and old age as a life period.
The study of dominant perceptions on the age of Belgrade population takes not only the universal character of negative connotation
of old age into consideration, but also the concrete unfavorable social context.
The delicate problematic of stereotypes on old age and old people has been analyzed mostly indirectly, through questions on the
beginning of old age, advantages and difficulties which we experience during ageing, the first subjective conscious encounter with
ones own ageing, the concept of ideal old age, changes in the persons traits and directly through questions on dominant negative
perceptions which prevail on old people in our surrounding.
Ageing in the Belgrade milieu is most commonly identified with illness and with the decline of physical potentials, and at the same
time a number of other negative qualifications of old age as well. Research results indicate to a pronounced ambivalent standpoint
towards ageing, to different observation of ones own to old age of other people, to different consideration of old age among the
sexes and to obvious aversion towards old people. This is expected, taking into consideration that living and ageing are developing
nowadays under aggressive influence of contemporary mass culture which affirms youth, beauty, physical strength, health as
dominant values, namely everything that is contrary to ageing and old age. On the other hand, our society is today confronted with, as
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well as in the near past, exceptional political, economic and cultural difficulties which cause specific problems with various age
groups, as well as the lowering of the level of mutual endurance and tolerance. The atmosphere of straining the old people and
emergence of new antagonisms causes the intensification of misunderstandings and distancing among generations as well and creates
a favorable climate for maintaining different prejudices, even those towards ageing.
While prejudices are by themselves a universal social-psychological category, prejudices on old age differ from the rest by one
special and very significant characteristic some primal fears are subconsciously hidden and some basic questions on the meaning of
human existence are held back, so negative connotation of old age is precisely collective running away from these problems.
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/2003
godina XLI
Raevi, Mirjana
EVROPSKA POPULACIONA KONFERENCIJA "IZAZOVI I MOGUNOSTI", VARAVA, 26-30. JUL 2003.
161-164
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/2003
godina XLI
Stankovi, Biljana
"REGIONALNI RAZVOJ I DEMOGRAFSKI TOKOVI BALKANSKIH ZEMALJA", NI, 20. JUN 2003.
164-166
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/2003
godina XLI
Kuburovi, Ankica
JELENA PREDOJEVI "O FERTILITETU STANOVNITVA KOSOVA I METOHIJE"
167-170
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/2003
godina XLI
Banievi, Milo
MIRJANA RAEVI "FERTILITET I REPRODUKTIVNO ZDRAVLJE STANOVNITVA REPUBLIKE CRNE
GORE"
170-175
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/2003
godina XLI
Stankovi, Biljana
ANA GAVRILOVI "PREDKOLSKE USTANOVE U SRBIJI 1843-2000"
175-177
***************************************************************************
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2004
godina XLII
Raevi, Mirjana
FERTILITY TRENDS IN SERBIA DURING THE 1990S
TRENDOVI FERTILITETA U SRBIJI TOKOM 1990-IH GODINA
7-28
K.w.: fertility, Serbia
K.r.: fertilitet, Srbija
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The 1990s represent an exceptionally complex period for the population of Serbia. In addition to the impact of long-term factors,
various tumultuous events affected its demographic development, such as breaking apart of former Yugoslavia, armed conflicts in the
neighboring countries, sanctions imposed by the international community, social changes (transition, transformation or regression),
deep economic crisis, collapse of social stratification, political problems, institutional crisis, and NATO military intervention.
Maladaptation to the changed system of values and norms, lower level of personal attainment, feeling of insecurity, and living under
permanent stress are the main features of life at an individual, psychological level. Deprivation or living at the subsistence level are
the main elements of the economic cost sustained by the majority of the population.
How have these changes affected an individual's decision to have children? The analysis of futility indicators points to an obvious
decline in the number of births across low fertility regions of Serbia. Also, the analysis has raised the question why the decline in
population fertility in the low fertility regions was not even higher, bearing in mind the experiences undergone by the countries with
economy in transition as well as the depth of the crisis in society. In that sense several factors come to mind. The most important are
the universality of marriage, socio-psychological investigations confirmed domination of the traditional character or mentality in
Serbia during the 1990s, and the governments approach to the issue of fertility improved during this time. Besides, demographic
needs were carefully taken into account in all amendments to the old and formulation of the new measures in the area of social
policy. Mention should be made of measures ensuring employment rights of women and their entitlement to maternity leave,
maternity pay, and provision of institutionalized care for the children. On the other hand, under-reporting of live births, lack of
knowledge on the size and characteristics of emigration flows limited the analysis of population fertility in Kosovo and Metohia. But,
registered data as well as survey results show to the perseverance of the fertility model of transitional type displaying obvious
traditional elements.
Devedesete godine XX veka predstavljale su jedan izuzetno sloen period u bitisanju stanovnitva Srbije. Pored dugoronih faktora
na demografski razvitak delovao je i niz burnih dogaaja. Raspad SFRJ, rat u okruenju, sankcije meunarodne zajednice, drutvene
promene (tranzicija, transformacija ili regresija), duboka ekonomska kriza, poremeaji socijalne stratifikacije, politiki problemi,
kriza institucija, vojna intervencija NATO pakta. Maladaptacioni sindrom na izmenjen sistem vrednosti i norme kao i smanjen stepen
samorealizacije, oseaj nesigurnosti, i ivot u permanentnom stresu su osnovne odlike ivljenja ovog perioda na individualnom,
psiholokom nivou. Siromatvo odnosno redukcija potreba na egzistencijalnom nivou, su, pak, osnovne karakteristike ekonomske
cene ove decenije koju je platila ogromna veina stanovnitva.
Kako su ove promene delovale na odluku pojedinca da raa? Analiza pokazatelja fertiliteta stanovnitva ukazuje da niskonatalitetna
podruja Srbije u devedesetim godinama karakterie jasan pad raanja. Meutim, nivo raanja koji belei stanovnitvo centralne
Srbije i Vojvodine, imajui u vidu dubinu krize drutva i isksutva zemalja ije su ekonomije u tranziciji, otvara pitanje kako
demografska cena nije bila vea. U objanjenje se namee nekoliko faktora. Pre svih brak nije bio ugroen, istraivanja sociolokopsiholoke prirode su pokazala promenu drutvenog karaktera potvrujui dominaciju tradicionalistike vrednosne orijentacije, a
devedesete godine karakterie i drugaija populaciona klima i drugaiji stav drave prema populacionoj politici. U okviru
preduzimanih mera koje su mogle imati efekte izdvajaju se zatita radnih prava porodilje i zbrinjavanje dece zaposlenih majki. Sa
druge strane, podregistarcija ivoroene dece ograniava analizu fertiliteta stanovnitva na Kosovu i Metohiji. No registrovani podaci
kao i rezultati dubinskog istraivanja ukazuju na dominaciju, ali i proces transformacije tradicionalnog reproduktivnog ponaanja i
poloaja ene.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2004
godina XLII
urev, Branislav S.
KOLIKO DECE TREBA SRBIJI?
HOW MANY CHILDREN DOES SERBIA NEED?
29-44
K.r.: obnavljanje stanovnitva, fertilitet, stope fertiliteta, paritet, Srbija
K.w.: replacement, fertility, fertility rates, parity progression, Serbia
Rad predstavlja kvantitativnu podlogu za donoenje programa planiranja porodice u kome bi krajnji cilj bio nivo prostog obnavljanja
stanovnitva, stacionarno stanovnitvo. Na osnovu podataka iz popisne 2002. godine razmatran je ukupan broj ivoroenih koji je
potreban za zamenu generacija, kao i broj ivoroenih prema starosti majke i broj ivoroenih prema redu roenja. Stopa ukupnog
fertiliteta od 2,1 deteta po eni je nivo koji je dovoljan za stacionarno stanovnitvo, a to znai da je Srbiji godinje potrebno oko
105.000 dece. Testirano je pet modela specifinih stopa fertiliteta po starosti do kojih se dolo na razne naine: ponderisanjem
postojeih specifinih stopa fertiliteta kolinikom izmeu potrebnog i ostvarenog broja ivoroenih, korienjem podataka iz godine
kada je fertilitet poslednji put bio dovoljan za zamenu generacija, linearnom interpolacijom izmeu okruglih empirijskih specifinih
stopa fertiliteta (dva modela) ili korienjem demografskog modela Brasovog polinoma. Pokazalo se da je cilj mogue dostii sa
razliitim rasporedima raanja po petogodinjim starosnim grupama, a to moe biti prednost u donoenju programa. Takoe, odreen
je i paritet, tj. potrebna progresija ka prvom, drugom i treem detetu. Zakljueno je da je osnovni razlog nedovoljnog raanja mala
progresija ka treem detetu. Raanje troje dece treba da bude najvie stimulisano u svakom programu planiranja porodice u Srbiji,
sve dotle dok ih ne bude imala svaka druga ena.
The work is an attempt to determine basic quantities for introducing a family planning program which will be aiming at a
replacement level. In order to do that census year 2002 was taken as an example for calculation. Total fertility rate of 2.1 children per
woman was considered as necessary level, and that means Serbia needs 105.000 newborns each year. In accordance with that level a
set of five age specific fertility rates (ASFR) were established in order to find appropriate model of reproductive behavior for Serbia.
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The sets are established in the following manner: multiplying ASFR by quotient between necessary and real number of newborns, by
the data from the last year when fertility was large enough to provide for replacement level (with mortality level from 2002), by
linear interpolation between two ASFR models, and by Brass fertility polynomial. All five different models of age specific fertility
rates suggest that there is no ideal distribution of ASFR. Also, parity progression from zero to first, from first to second, and from
second to third child is determined. The main reason for below replacement level in Serbia is small parity progression from second to
third child. So, rearing the third child should be the most stimulated in every family planning program, as long as every second
women have them by the end of her reproductive life span.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2004
godina XLII
Devedi, Mirjana
RAZVOJ REPROGENETIKE I NJENI DEMOGRAFSKI ASPEKTI
DEVELOPMENT OF REPROGENETICS AND ITS DEMOGRAPHIC ASPECTS
45-66
K.r.: reprogenetika, asistirane reproduktivne tehnologije, demografija, bioetika
K.w.: reprogenetics, assisted reproductive technology, demography, bioethics
Razvoj reprogenetike u poslednje dve decenije 20. veka uveo nas je u novo doba reprodukcije. U radu se daje pregled osnovnih
vidova reprogenetike u njenom irem znaenju, tj. razliiti oblici asistiranih reproduktivnih tehnologija (ART) koji podrazumevaju
manipulaciju jajnom elijom van tela ene. Razvoj reprogenetike se dokumentuje dostupnim kvantitativnim pokazateljima o broju i
uspenosti ART procedura u razvijenom svetu, na poetku 21. veka. Od 1978. godine, kada je uz pomo vantelesne oplodnje roena
jedna beba, broj roenja je dostigao takav nivo da u ukupnom broju roenja participira sa 1%, a u pojedinim zemljama i preko 3%. S
obzirom da postojea dokumentacija nije potpuna, kao i da njom nisu obuhvaeni svi oblici vetake reprodukcije, realni znaaj
potpomognute oplodnje je jo vei i dobija demografsku signifikantnost. Stoga se u radu ukazuje na postojee i potencijalne uticaje
razvoja ART na demografski razvitak, odnosno ukazuje se na pojedine demografske aspekte ovog fenomena. Poentiraju se: uticaj na
nivo fertiliteta, menjanje neposrednih faktora fertiliteta, uticaj na nivo mortinataliteta i mortaliteta odojadi, novo poimanje kontrole
raanja, mogunost uticaja na bioloke strukture, menjanje osnova braka i porodice. Perspektive razvoja reprogenetike stavljaju se u
kontekst bioetikih rasprava i daju osnovne naznake etikih dilema vezanih za asistirane reprodukcije. Njihovo reavanje definie
obim primene novih reproduktivnih tehnologija u budunosti.
The development of reprogenetics during the last two decades of the XX century has brought a new age of reproduction. The paper
surves different types of reprogenetics in a wider sense, i.e. different assisted reproductive technologies (ART) that include
manipulation of female reproductive cell out of a woman's womb. Development of reprogenetics is documented by available
quantitative indicators of the number and success of ART procedures in developed countries at the beginning of the XXI century.
Since 1978, when the first baby was born from in vitro fertilization, the number of children born that way has reached 1% of all
children, and in some countries even over 3%. Moreover, existing documentation is incomplete and does not include all forms of
assisted reproduction in reality, the importance of assisted reproduction is even higher and becomes demographically significant.
Hence the paper indicates existing and potential effects of the ART development on the demographic development, i.e. on specific
demographic aspects of this phenomenon. It also points out the effects on the level of fertility, on the changes of direct fertility
determinants, and on the levels of mortinatality and infant mortality, as well as a new understanding of birth control, the possibility of
affecting biological structures, and the changes of the fundaments of marriage and family. Development perspectives of reprogenetics
are also being raised in the context of bioethical discussions and indicate ethical dilemmas related to assisted reproduction. Solutions
to the dilemmas define the scope of applying new reproductive technologies in the future.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2004
godina XLII
Stankovi, Biljana
PSIHO-SOCIJALNA SLIKA SEKSUALNO AKTIVNIH ADOLESCENTKINJA. REZULTATI ANKETNOG
ISTRAIVANJA
PSYCHO-SOCIAL PICTURE OF SEXUALLY ACTIVE ADOLESCENT GIRLS. RESULTS OF RESEARCH
SURVEY
67-92
K.r.: reproduktivno zdravlje, adolescenti, Beograd
K.w.: reproductive health, adolescents, Belgrade
U demografskom smislu, adolescenti su populaciona grupa koja tek treba da uestvuje u raanju. Stoga, njihovo seksualno
ponaanje, i posebno seksualna aktivnost u ranom uzrastu koja nije nepovoljna samo sa aspekta indidividue, u smislu rizika po psihofiziko zdravlje, ve i sa aspekta drutva, sa stanovita fertiliteta, zasluuju posebnu panju.
U radu su prikazani rezultati dubinskog istraivanja sprovedenog u Beogradu u periodu od septembra 2001. do oktobra 2002. godine,
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sa ciljem da se doe do saznanja koji su to inioci koji odreuju da jedna mlada osoba, u uzrastu od esnaest godina i ranije, zapone
seksualnu aktivnost. Obavljeno je na uzorku od 111 adolescentkinja uzrasta od 14 do 20 godina, koje su se obratile Savetovalitu za
mlade Republikog centra za planiranje porodice Instituta za zdravstvenu zatitu majke i deteta Srbije.
Istraivanje je pokazalo da je seksualno iskustvo, ostvareno u ranom uzrastu, za najvei broj ispitivanih devojaka bilo sastavni deo
razvoja i sazrevanja. Ono je u veini sluajeva bilo pozitivno iskustvo, podstaknuto ljubavlju i ostvareno sa partnerom, najee
vrnjakom, sa kojim su bile u duoj, stabilnoj vezi. Ipak, iz podataka dobijenih istraivanjem moe se zakljuiti da bi ispitivane
devojke, da su bile u mogunosti da pravovremeno steknu bolji uvid u sopstvena oseanja i oseanja drugih, kao i da razviju
socijalne vetine i vetine ovladavanja kontrolom svojih impulsa, mogle lake i efikasnije da ree probleme i dileme vezane za
seksualnost. Kod izvesnog broja ispitanica to bi znailo i odlaganje seksualne aktivnosti na kasniji uzrast. To se odnosi i na
prevenciju drugih rizinih ponaanja, kao to je korienje alkohola i droga, koji utiu i na izmenu seksualnog ponaanja, inei ga
rizinijim. Vano je naglasiti da su i same ispitivane adolescentkinje prepoznale potrebu za podrkom u ovoj osetljivoj oblasti ivota.
Psiho-socijalni profil ispitivanih seksualno aktivnih adolescentkinja pokazuje da one, ni u kom sluaju ne pripadaju nekoj
marginalnoj grupi. Stoga se na osnovu rezultata dobijenih na ovom selekcionisanom uzorku, moe zakljuiti da u populaciji mladih
postoji jo vea potreba, ali i mogunost bolje pripreme i vee upuenosti u pitanja iz sfere seksualnosti. Kod jednog broja mladih to
bi moglo da doprinese i izvesnom odlaganju zapoinjanja seksualne aktivnosti. Ipak, osnovnim preduslovom edukativnog rada na
ouvanju i unapreenju reproduktivnog zdravlja mladih, koji podrazumeva sticanje znanja i vetina, ini se, pre svega, prihvatanje
seksualnosti mladih. U vrednosnom sistemu naih ispitanica ljubav zauzima veoma znaajno mesto, kao i seks, koji se uglavnom
doivljava kao sastavni deo ljubavi, dovodi do vee bliskosti sa partnerom i doprinosi sazrevanju i razvoju linosti. Nema razloga da
se misli da je u populaciji mladih drugaije.
In a demographic sense, adolescents are a population group which is yet to take part in birth giving. Therefore, their sexual behavior
and especially sexual activity at early ages which is not only unfavorable from the aspect of the individual, meaning risk for psychophysical health, but from the aspect of society as well, as regards population fertility, deserves special attention.
This paper shows the results of in-depth research carried out in Belgrade from September 2001 to October 2002 with an aim to
establish which factors determine a young person, of sixteen years old or younger, to become sexually active. It was carried out on a
sample of 111 adolescent girls between 14 and 20 years old which turned to the Republic Family Planning Center Youth Counseling
Clinic of the Institute for Mother and Child Health Care of Serbia.
The research showed that sexual experience, realized at an early age was an integral part of development and maturing for the largest
number of surveyed girls. In the largest number of cases it was a positive experience, induced by love and experienced with a partner,
mainly of the same age, with which they were in a longer, stable relationship. Nevertheless, it could be concluded from the results
obtained by the research that the surveyed girls could have more easily and efficiently solved their problems and dilemmas regarding
sexuality had they had the possibility to obtain a better insight into their personal feelings and feelings of others at the right time, as
well as developed social experience and experience in mastering control of their impulses. With a certain number of surveyed girls
that would have meant a delay in their sexual activities to a later age. This also refers to the prevention of other risky behavior, such
as use of alcohol and drugs, which also have an influence on changing sexual behavior, making it more risky. It is important to stress
that the surveyed adolescent girls themselves recognized the necessity for support in this delicate field of life as well.
The psycho-social profile of surveyed sexually active adolescent girls indicates that they do not belong under any circumstances to
some marginal group. Therefore it can be concluded on the basis of the results obtained on this selected sample that an even greater
necessity exists in the young population, and a possibility as well for better preparation and greater insight into questions from the
sphere of sexuality. With a certain number of young girls this could lead to a certain delay in the commencement of sexual activities.
Nonetheless, with a basic prerequisite of educational work on maintaining and promoting reproductive health of the young, which
understands acquiring knowledge and skill, youth sexuality is above all, being accepted. Love takes up a significant place in the
value system of our surveyed girls, as well as sex, which is mainly conceived as a constituent part of love, leading to a greater
closeness with the partner and contributes to maturing and development of an individual. There is no reason to believe that it is
otherwise in the population of the young people.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2004
godina XLII
Radivojevi, Biljana, Vukica Veljanovi-Moraa
ZNAAJ BIO-MEDICINSKIH I SOCIO-EKONOMSKIH FAKTORA ZA PORAST OEKIVANOG TRAJANJA
IVOTA
IMPORTANCE OF BIO-MEDICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS FOR INCREASE OF LIFE
EXPECTANCY
93-108
K.r.: oekivano trajanje ivota, Jugoslavija (SCG) razvijene zemlje, srednje razvijene zemlje, regresiona analiza
K.w.: life expectancy, Yugoslavia (SCG) developed countries, medium developed countries, regression analysis
U radu je ispitivana veza oekivanog trajanja ivota po polu i brojnih faktora od kojih zavisi njegov nivo. Statistika analiza
podrazumevala je primenu korelacione i regresione analize za utvrivanje jaine veze oekivanog trajanja ivota i ispitivanih faktora
pojedinano, a zatim i svih faktora ukupno, kao i posebno grupe zdravstveno-medicinskih i socio-ekonomskih faktora. Analiza je
uraena za grupu razvijenih zemalja, srednje razvijenih, meovitu grupu i Jugoslaviju (sada SCG) na raspoloivim podacima za
drugu polovinu 20. veka.
Rezultati analize za Jugoslaviju pokazali su da na duinu ivota mukaraca od svih faktora zajedno najvei uticaj imaju izdvajanja za
socijalnu zatitu (p<0,05). Ako se posmatraju samo zdravstveno-medicinski faktori onda je to mortalitet dece do pet godina i
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mortalitet od tumora. Kod ena najvei uticaj ostvaruje mortalitet dece do pet godina meu svim faktorima (p<0,05), ili samo meu
zdravstveno-medicinskim, ali je on u tom sluaju daleko manji nego kod mukaraca.
Kod razvijenih zemalja najjau vezu sa oekivanim trajanjem ivota imao je broj bolesnikih postelja kod mukaraca (p<0,05), a kod
ena parametar potencijalno izgubljenih godina zbog tumora (p<0,01). Kod srednje razvijenih zemalja na oekivano trajanje ivota
ena najvie utie maternalni mortalitet (p=0,014), a kod mukaraca nije utvrena statistika znaajnost ni za jedan ispitivani faktor.
U meovitom uzorku najjaa veza ostvarena je sa bruto nacionalnim dohotkom po glavi stanovnika (p<0,01), i kod mukog i kod
enskog stanovnitva (p=0,017).
Analiza je pokazala da je u sadanjim uslovima viih vrednosti oekivanog trajanja ivota znaajniji uticaj zdravstveno-medicinskih
faktora, a da je vei uticaj socio-ekonomskih faktora kada ti nivoi nisu dostignuti. Takoe, izgleda da su ovi drugi znaajniji kod
mukaraca nego kod ena.
This paper analyzes the connection between life expectancy according to sex and numerous factors on which its level depends on.
Statistical analysis understood application of correlation and regression analysis for determining the connection strength of life
expectancy and researched factors separately, and then all factors together, as well as separately groups of health-medical and socioeconomic factors. The analysis was carried out for a group of developed countries, medium developed, mixed group and Yugoslavia
(now SCG) on available data for the second half of the 20th century.
Analysis results for Yugoslavia showed that the greatest influence on life expectancy of all factors together were setting aside funds
for social security (p<0.05). If only health-medical factors are observed, then child mortality up to 5 years and tumor mortality are in
question. With women, the greatest influence is with child mortality up to five years old among all factors (<p0.05), or only among
health-medical, but in that case it is far less than with men.
In developed countries, the strongest connection with life expectancy were the number of sick-beds with men (p<0.05), and with
women the parameter of potentially lost years due to tumor (p<0.01). In medium developed countries, the most influence on women's
life expectancy was maternal mortality (p=0.014), and with men no researched factor was statistically significant. In the mixed
sample, the strongest connection with men was with gross national income per capita (p<0.01), and with women with child mortality
up to five years old (p=0.017).
Therefore, on the basis of the determined statistical importance of certain factors, analysis showed that the influence of socioeconomic factors on life expectancy was very strong in present conditions of mortality, not only in positive, but in negative direction
as well, and that their influence in that second half of the 20th century was greater than the influence of health-medical factors. Also,
it seems that the males are more sensitive to these factors than women.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2004
godina XLII
Stevanovi, Radoslav
GRADSKA NASELJA REPUBLIKE SRBIJE U POPISIMA STANOVNITVA OD 1948. DO 2002.
URBAN SETTLEMENTS IN THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA IN POPULATION CENSUSES
109-126
K.r.: gradska naselja, kriterijumi, popisi stanovnitva
K.w.: urban settlements, criteria, population censuses
U periodu od popisa stanovnitva 1948. do 2002. godine u Srbiji su, od strane statistike slube, koriena dva kriterijuma za
diferencijaciju naselja, odnosno podelu naselja na gradska i ona koja to nisu (meovita i seoska, odnosno ostala). Administrativni, po
kome se zakonskim propisima naselja proglaavaju za gradska (popis 1948. i popisi od 1981. godine), i kombinovani (demografskostatistiki) kriterijum zasnovan na kombinaciji dvaju obeleja: populacionoj veliini naselja i procentnom udelu nepoljoprivrednog
stanovnitva, korien u popisima stanovnitva od 1953. do 1971. godine. Polazei od usvojenih kriterijuma u Srbiji su ukupno 243
samostalna naselja imala status gradskih naselja, to je znatno vei broj od ukupnog broja gradskih naselja u ma kojem popisu
stanovnitva. To praktino znai, da su pojedina naselja, od popisa do popisa, dobijala ili gubila takav status. Gubitak statusa
iskljuivo je karakteristika perioda primene demografsko-statistikog kriterijuma za izdvajanje gradskih naselja u popisima
stanovnitva od 1953. do 1971. godine, odnosno prelaska sa tog na administrativno-pravni kriterijum u popisu stanovnitva 1981.
godine. Broj gradskih naselja kao i promene u broju i sistemnataskom spisku gradskih naselja, kako u okviru Republike, tako i
pojedinim makrocelina (za Kosovo i Metohiju do 1991), u radu su prikazani, tabelarno i shematski po sukcesivnim popisima
stanovnitva, poev od popisa 1948. godine.
In population censuses from 1948 to 2002, two criteria for differentiation of settlements, namely division of settlements into urban
and those that are not (mixed and villages, namely other) were used by statistical office. One being the administrative criteria, by
which the settlements are declared urban by legal regulations (census 1948 and censuses from 1981), and the other a combined
(demographically-statistically) criteria based on the combination of the two characteristics: population size of the settlement and
percentage portion of non-agricultural population, used in population censuses from 1953 to 1971. Proceeding from the adopted
criteria, a total number of 243 independent settlements had the status of urban settlements in Serbia, which is a considerably greater
number of total numbers of urban settlements in any population census. This practically means that certain settlements, from
censuses to censuses, gained and lost such a status. The loss of the status is exclusively a characteristic of the period when the
demographic-statistical criteria were applied for separating urban settlements in the population censuses from 1953 to 1971, namely
the transfer from these criteria to the administrative-legal criteria in the population census of 1981. The number of urban settlements
as well as the changes in the number and systematic list of urban settlements, not only within the Republic, but in certain macro
entities (for Kosovo and Metohia up to 1991), are shown in table and schematic forms according to successive population censuses,
starting from the 1948 census.
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osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/2004
godina XLII
Stankovi, Biljana
NACIONALNI PLAN AKCIJE ZA DECU
127-132
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/2004
godina XLII
Raevi, Mirjana
EVROPSKI POPULACIONI FORUM 2004 "POPULACIONE PROMENE I POLITIKI ODGOVORI", ENEVA,
1214. JANUAR 2004.
132-135
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/2004
godina XLII
Stevanovi, Radoslav
SEMINAR ZA POPULACIONU EDUKACIJU OPTINSKIH KOMISIJA I KOORDINATORA ZA POPULACIONU
POLITIKU U AP VOJVODINI, OKTOBAR 2003. MAJ 2004.
135-140
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/2004
godina XLII
Kuburovi, Ankica
BOJANA MILJKOVI-KATI "STRUKTURA GRADSKOG STANOVNITVA SRBIJE SREDINOM XIX VEKA"
141-145
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/2004
godina XLII
Predojevi, Jelena
ALEKSANDRA VULETI "PORODICA U SRBIJI SREDINOM XIX VEKA"
145-149
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/2004
godina XLII
Kuburovi, Ankica
SUZAN GAL AND GAIL KLIGMAN (eds.) "REPRODUCING GENDER POLITICS, PUBLICS AND
EVERYDAY LIFE AFTER SOCIALISM"
149-156
asopis Stanovnitvo
statistiki prilog
broj 1-4/2004
godina XLII
Penev, Goran
KOMPONENTE KRETANJA STANOVNITVA SRBIJE (BEZ KOSOVA I METOHIJE), 19912002.
157-183
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statistiki prilog
broj 1-4/2004
godina XLII
Penev, Goran
STANOVNITVO CRNE GORE PO NACIONALNOSTI, 1991. I 2003.
184-187
asopis Stanovnitvo
prilog
broj 1-4/2004
godina XLII
Penev, Goran,DemoBalk
VIEJEZIKI DEMOGRAFSKI POJMOVNIK
189-198
***************************************************************************
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2005
godina XLIII
Kovaevi, Miladin
THE WEAK POINTS OF STATISTICAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSES IN ESTIMATIONS OF WAR
VICTIMS IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA IN THE PERIOD 1992-1995
SLABOSTI STATISTIKE I DEMOGRAFSKE ANALIZE U PROCENAMA RTAVA RATA U BOSNI I
HERCEGOVINI U PERIODU 1992-1995.
13-42
K.w.: war victims, censuses, statistics, genocide, estimation, ethnic cleansing
K.r.: rtve rata, popisi, statistika, genocid, procena, etniko ienje
In the political and war crisis which embraced Bosnia and Herzegovina in the spring of 1992 with an end of war hostilities in the
autumn of 1995 when the "Dayton Peace Agreement" emerged (November 1995), a media war occurred. From the very beginning,
this war had an international character. The question on the number of war victims (killed and missing) "exploded" in June of 1993,
when Haris Silajdi stated that there had been 200000 dead among the Muslims. This figure uncritically became the basis for all
later media and local "empirical truths" on the number of victims. All statistical and demographic disciplines were exploited to
support, if not prove, the propaganda standpoints. Objectivity was oppressed by an ugly "face of the war". Having in mind the
experience of the Second World War in Yugoslavia, the question on the number of victims does not cease to be topical for decades
after the end of the war. Bosnia and Herzegovina is more than a confirmation. This question seems to intervene (and in a way "feed
of") with the most difficult political and international questions and court trials. ("International Court of Justice", indictment of
Bosnia and Herzegovina against The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, namely Serbia).
The methodological analysis of the most important works which deal with the question of the number of victims in the Bosnian war
(above all, those done by Bosnian institutes and authors) indicate the "mistakes" made by the character of these works (propaganda).
The manipulation with statistical methods and numbers is not new. Methodological and numerical traps can slip even to the most
informed.
The use of statistics and social science in court trials seems to show Janus's face of science: on one side the authentic "moral passion"
of researchers finds great sense, and on the other side special interests strive to impose themselves through the (most refined)
instrumentation of science and knowledge. (The example of Mr. Patrick Ball's testification in the trials in the Hague Tribunal is
edifying as regards the question of the reasons for the Albanian exodus in the war crisis on Kosovo and Metohia in 1999).
This analysis points out to the crucial defects of every statistical (and demographic) procedure of deriving the number of war victims
in the absence of a comparable population census after the war (which did not take place in Bosnia and Herzegovina). The
qualification of the quality of the 1991 Census in Bosnia and Herzegovina is briefly given (the author was an expert and
organizational leader of all operations of last censuses in former Yugoslavia, 1991).
Probably the most distinctive point, in the continuous course of deriving numbers and analysis on the number of victims in the
Bosnian war so far, is the text of George Kenney published in the NY Times Magazine, April 23rd 1995.
U politikoj i ratnoj krizi koja je zahvatila Bosnu i Hercegovinu u prolee 1992. sa zavretkom ratnih neprijateljstava u jesen 1995,
kada je usledio "Dejtonski sporazum" (Novembar 1995), odigrala se medijska bitka. Od samog poetka ta bitka je imala
meunarodni karakter. Pitanje broja ratnih rtava (ubijenih i nestalih) "eksplodiralo" je u Junu 1993. kada je Haris Silajdji izneo
tvrdnju da ima 200000 mrtvih meu Muslimanima. Ovaj broj je nekritiki postao osnova svih kasnijih medijskih i domaih
"naunih" "istina" o broju rtava. Upregnute su statistike i demografske discipline da potkrepe, ako ne ve i da dokau
propagandistika stanovita. Objektivnost je zatomljena jednim i inae uasnim "licem rata". Imajui iskustvo Drugog svetskog rata
na prostoru Jugoslavije, pitanje broja rtava ne prestaje biti aktuelno decenijama nakon zavretka rata. Bosna i Hercegovina je vie
nego potvrda. Ovo pitanje kao da se preplie (na svojevrsan nain "hrani", sa najteim politikim i meunarodnim pitanjima i
sudskim procesima. ("Meunarodni sud pravde", optunica Bosne i Hercegovine protiv Savezne Republike Jugoslavije, odnosno
Srbije).
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Metodoloka analiza najvanijih radova koji se bave pitanjem broja rtava u bosanskom ratu (pre svega onih koji su radili bonjaki
instituti i autori) ukazuje na "greke" koje su pravi karakter ovih radova (propagandistiki). Manipulacija statistikim metodama i
brojevima nije nova. Metodoloke i numerike zamke mogu izmai i najupuenijima.
Upotreba statistike i socijalne nauke u sudskim procesima kao da pokazuje Janusovo lice nauke: na jednoj strani istinska "moralna
strast" istraivaa nalazi visoki smisao, a na drugoj posebni interesi nastoje da se nametnu putem te (najrafiniranije)
instrumentalizacije nauke i znanja. (Pouan je primer svedoenja Mr. Patrick Ball-a u procesima pred Hakim tribunalom o pitanju
uzroka egzodusa Albanaca u ratnoj krizi na Kosovu i Metohiji 1999-te godine).
U ovoj analizi ukazuje se na krucijalni defekt svakog statistikog (i demografskog) postupka izvoenja broja rtava rata u nedostatku
repernog popisa stanovnitva nakon rata (koji je u Bosni i Hercegovini izostao). Takoe je u najkraem data kvalifikacija kvaliteta
popisa 1991. u Bosni i Hercegovini (autor je bio struni i organizacioni voditelj svih operacija poslednjeg popisa u bivoj Jugoslaviji
1991).
Moda je najmarkantnija taka, u do sada neprekinutom toku iznoenja brojeva i analiza o rtvama bosanskog rata, tekst George
Keney-a objavljen u NY Times Magazine-u, 23. aprila 1995. godine.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2005
godina XLIII
Stevanovi, Radoslav
IZBEGLITVO I DEMOGRAFSKI RAST STANOVNITVA SRBIJE
EXILE AND DEMOGRAPHIC POPULATION GROWTH IN SERBIA
43-60
K.r.: izbeglice, domicilno stanovnitvo, Srbija, popis, strukture
K.w.: refugees, domicile population, Serbia, census, structure
U ovom radu analiziraju se podaci popisa stanovnitva 2002. godine o izbeglikoj populaciji sa osnovnim ciljem da se utvrditi znaaj
(doprinos) izbeglikog korpusa u demografskom razvitku Republike Srbije. Analizom podataka utvreno je, da se izbegliki korpus u
osnovnim, a pre svega u demografskim, ali i drugim kvalitativnim karakteristikama bitnije ne razlikuje u odnosu na domicilno
stanovnitvo. Razlike koje se i mogu zapaziti kod pojedinih (pre svega socio-ekonomskih) karakteristika, zbog srazmerno malog uea
izbeglih lica u odnosu na ukupno (domicilno) stanovnitvo, nisu mogle znaajnije uticati na sveukupne demografske, socio-ekonomske i
druge karakteristike stanovnitva centralne Srbije i Vojvodine. Tako da se najznaajniji doprinos priliva izbeglica (svrstavanju
izbeglikog korpusa u ukupno stanovnitvo zemlje) ogleda u ublaavanju depopulacionog trenda, odnosno populacionom rastu, kako
obeju makrocelina, tako i niih, administrativno-teritorijalnih celina (optina) u zavisnosti od popisanog broja izbeglike populacije u
njima. Meutim, projekcije stanovnitva ukazuju da e se do sredine ovog veka (2050) izgubiti pozitivni efekti bazino veeg broja
stanovnika uzrokovani prilivom izbeglog stanovnitva.
The data of the 2002 population census on refugee population are analyzed in this paper with a basic aim to determine the
significance (contribution) of refugee corpus in demographic development of the Republic of Serbia. By analyzing the data, it has
been determined that the refugee corpus does not significantly differ from the domicile population in the basic, above all,
demographic and other qualitative characteristics. The differences which can be noticed with certain (primarily socio-economic)
characteristics, due to the proportionally small participation of refugee persons in relation to the total (domicile) population, could not
significantly influence the total demographic, socio-economic and other characteristics of the population of central Serbia and
Vojvodina. The most significant contribution of refugee (classifying the refugee corpus in the country's total population) is reflected
in the mitigation of the depopulation trend, namely population growth, not only both micro-entities, but also lower, administrativeterritorial entities (districts) depending on the enumerated refugee population in them. However, population projections indicate that
by the middle of this century (2050) the positive effects of the basically larger number of inhabitants will be lost caused by the inflow
of refugee population.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2005
godina XLIII
Stojanovi, Branislav , Gordana Vojkovi
URBANE AGLOMERACIJE NA GLAVNIM RAZVOJNIM OSOVINAMA KAO POLOVI DEMOGRAFSKE
REVITALIZACIJE SRBIJE
URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS ON MAIN DEVELOPMENT AXES AS POLES OF DEMOGRAPHIC
REVITALIZATION OF SERBIA
61-80
K.r.: urbane aglomeracije, stanovnitvo, demografska revitalizacija, Srbija
K.w.: urban agglomerations, population, demographic revitalization, Serbia
Za prodruje Srbije karakteristine su u drugoj polovini 20. veka znaajne prostorno-demografske promene uzrokovane snanim
procesom primarne urbanizacije, tj. intenzivnim migracionim tokovima na relaciji selo-grad. Zone ekspanzije formirane su oko
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urbanih sredita s ukupnim snanim rastom (i demografskim i ekonomskim), a koja se, uglavnom, nalaze u arealima glavnih
razvojnih osovina, od kojih je (savsko) dunavsko-moravska najznaajnija. Vanost ove razvojne osovine (ne samo u demografskom
smislu) pokazuje i podatak da je u ovom podruju (formiranom od optina koje se nalaze u zoni koridora) 2002. godine ivelo 3794,8
hiljada stanovnika, to predstavlja 50,6% stanovnitva Centralne Srbije i Vojvodine. S obzirom na to koju teritoriju obuhvata, ova
zona je, u proseku, dvostruko naseljenija od prostora Srbije (bez Kosova) u celini. Uz to, od pet naselja s vie od 100 hiljada
stanovnika (veliki urbani centri), etiri se nalaze u ovoj zoni (Subotica, Novi Sad, Beograd i Ni) a samo se Kragujevac nalazi neto
perifernije u odnosu na nju, ali u njenoj neposrednoj blizini. Veliki gradski centri u zoni koridora X 2002. godine koncentrisali su ak
41% urbanog stanovnitva Republike. Istovremeno, tome treba dodati i mreu od 32 naselja u arealu ove glavne razvojne osovine
Srbije, koja pripadaju kategoriji malih i gradova srednjih veliina, i koja obuhvataju oko 16% republike urbane populacije. Tako se
ova, kao i ostale zone koncentracije stanovnitva, koje su formirane oko sekundarnih razvojnih osovina u prostoru Srbije, izdvaja kao
podruje sa znaajnim populacionim potencijalom.
Upravo zato, u ovom radu izvren je pokuaj da se utvrdi uloga i znaaj urbanih aglomeracija na glavnim razvojnim osovinama za
eventualnu demografsku revitalizaciju Srbije. Znaaj urbanog stanovnitva proizilazi iz njegovih kvantitativnih, ali posebno kvalitativnih
(strukturalnih) karakteristika. Ova kategorija stanovnitva Republike, u poslednje dve meupopisne dekade (1981-2002. godina), bez
obzira na efekte demografske i socio-ekonomske tranzicije, zatim na geo-politike promene i njihove (uglavnom negativne uticaje),
ostvaruje signifikantan rast (vie od 10%) za razliku od ukupne populacije ovog prostora, koja ostvaruje evidentan pad (od 3%). Jo
je izraeniji pad ruralnog stanovnitva (za oko 16%), tako da je njegova (budua) uloga u moguoj demografskoj revitalizaciji Srbije
od sekundarnog znaaja. Ve poetkom sedamdesetih godina teite osnovnih demografskih procesa (nataliteta) pomerilo se sa seoske
na gradsku populaciju. injenica je da je devedesetih godina samo urbano stanovnitvo Srbije (bez Kosova) ostvarivalo pozitivan
prirodni prirataj. Meutim, interesantno je da veliki gradovi krajem XX veka gube svoj primat, odnosno da i u njima dolazi do
pojave negativnog prirodnog prirataja (Beograd -1,5, Novi Sad -0,3 i Subotica -5,4) i da, u stvari, samo mali i srednji gradovi
obezbeuju prirodno obnavljanje svog stanovnitva. Oni uestvuju sa preko 60% u ukupnom broju ivoroenja u urbanim sredinama
i, s obzirom na to da postaju nosioci reprodukcije stanovnitva, mogu se posmatrati i kao polovi budue demografske revitalizacije
Srbije.
Significant geographical-demographic changes are characteristic for the region of Serbia in the second half of the 20th century, which
were caused by a dynamic primary urbanization process, namely intense migrational trends between village and town. Expansion
zones were formed around urban centers with total intense growth (both demographic and economic), which are mainly found in land
areas of main development axes, whereby the (Sava) Danube-Morava one is the most significant. The importance of this
development axis (not only in the demographic sense) is indicated by the fact that in this region (composed of districts which are
located in the corridor zone) 3794.8 thousand people lived in 2002, which represents 50.6% of the population of Central Serbia and
Vojvodina. Taking into consideration the territory it consists of, this zone is populated twice as much in average than the region of
Serbia (without Kosovo) as a whole. Along with that, out of the five urban areas with more than 100 thousand people (large urban
centers), four are located in this zone (Subotica, Novi Sad, Belgrade and Ni) and only Kragujevac is located somewhat on the
outskirts in relation to it, but in its immediate proximity. Large town centers in corridor zone X concentrated as much as 41% of the
Republic urban population in 2002. At the same time, a network of 32 settlements in the land area of this main development axis of
Serbia which belong to the category of small and medium size towns, and which cover about 16% of the republic urban population
should be added to this. Consequently this zone, as other concentrated population zones, which are formed around secondary
development axes on the territory of Serbia, is identified as a region with significant population potential.
For that very reason, there was an attempt in this paper to determine the role and significance of urban agglomerations on main
development axes for possible demographic revitalization of Serbia. The significance of urban population arises from its quantitative
and especially qualitative (structural) characteristics. This category of population of the Republic realizes significant growth (more
than 10%) in the last two inter-census decades (1981-2002) regardless of the effects of demographic and socio-economic transitions
and geo-political changes and their mainly negative influences as opposed to the total population of this region which realizes an
apparent drop (of 3%). The drop of rural population is even more obvious (by about 16%) so its (future) role in possible demographic
revitalization of Serbia is of secondary significance. As early as the seventies, the focus of main demographic processes (natality)
shifted from rural to town populations. It is a fact that only the urban population of Serbia (without Kosovo) realized a positive
natural growth in the nineties. However, it is interesting that large cities lost their precedence at the end of the twentieth century,
namely negative natural growth appeared (Belgrade 1.5, Novi Sad 0.3 and Subotica 5.4) and in fact only small and
medium towns provided natural replacement of its population. They participate with over 60% in total number of live births in urban
areas, and having in mind that they are becoming the bearers of population reproduction, they can be viewed as the poles of future
demographic revitalization of Serbia.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2005
godina XLIII
Nikitovi, Vladimir
O PROBLEMU TANOSTI POPULACIONIH PROJEKCIJA NA NIVOU OPTINE: PRIMER PROJEKCIJA
STANOVNITVA SRBIJE 1970-2000.
ON THE PROBLEM OF POPULATION PROJECTIONS EXACTNESS AT DISTRICT LEVEL: EXAMPLE OF
POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF SERBIA 1970-2000
81-104
K.r.: projekcija stanovnitva, tanost, Srbija, migracije
K.w.: population projections, exactness, Serbia, migrations
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Kvalitet i tanost populacionih projekcija je vano pitanje ne samo za njihove brojne korisnike ve i za sve autore ovih demografskih
prorauna koji se trude da poveaju njihovu upotrebnu vrednost. Posebno je osetljivo pitanje tanosti populacionih projekcija manjih
teritorijalnih celina i za krae vremenske rokove, jer takve projekcije najee slue kao ulazni parametri za razliite vidove
drutvenog planiranja. Kroz ovaj rad predstavljeni su rezultati analize koja se odnosi na do sada najbolje dokumentovan komplet
projekcija ovog tipa, a koji obuhvata celu teritoriju Srbije. U pitanju su projekcije na nivou optina izraene za trisesetogodinji
period, 1970-2000, kao nauna osnova drutvenog plana SR Srbije. Pripremljene su dve razliite varijante. Jedna je podrazumevala
linearni nastavak uoenih tendencija iz pretprojekcionog perioda, a druga je plod hipoteza tzv. kohortno-komponentnog metoda, koji
je pretpostavio postepeno ujednaavanje nivoa plodnosti odnosno smrtnosti izmeu optina u okviru svake od makrocelina Srbije, ali
je apstrahovao migracije.
Primenom nekoliko indikatora, baziranih na relativnom odstupanju projektovanog ukupnog broja stanovnika optine od popisom
registrovane vrednosti, utvren je intenzitet i smer projekcione greke. Eksplikacija nastanka i formiranja izmerenih vrednosti greke
vrena je pomou analize odstupanja projektovanog kretanja glavnih demografskih komponenti u odnosu na ostvareni demografski
razvoj. U sklopu analize ispitivan je i nivo korelacione zavisnosti izmeu iznosa greke i faktora koji su prepoznati kao mogui izvori
odstupanja. Rezultati analize potvrdili su znaaj migracione komponente u projektovanju populacije manjih teritorijalnih jedinica u
okviru drave. Iako je predvianje budueg migracionog bilansa povezano sa najveim izvorima neizvesnosti u poreenju sa druge
dve komponente razvoja populacije, posebno na dui rok, njegovo apstrahovanje iz projekcionih prorauna znatno vie utie na
tanost projekcionih rezultata vezanih za nivo optina nego za nivo makrocelina. Razlog je u generalno intenzivnijim unutardravnim
migracionim kretanjima nego u spoljnim migracijama, kao i u proporcionalno veem efektu migracije na male populacione jedinice u
poreenju sa makrocelinama. Jedan od osnovnih nalaza ove analize ukazuje da su najvea odstupanja projekcionih rezultata, u
odnosu na ostvarene vrednosti, vezana upravo za optine na iji je demografski razvoj migraciona komponenta imala veliki uticaj.
The quality and exactness of population projections is an important issue not only for their numerous users but for all authors of these
demographic calculations who try to increase their utility value. The question of the exactness of population projections of smaller
territorial entities are especially sensitive and for smaller time periods as well, because such projections are usually used as input
parameters for various forms of social planning. The results of the analysis which refers to the best documented set of projections so
far of this type and which includes the whole territory of Serbia have been presented in this work. The projections are on the level of
municipalities made for a thirty year period, 1970-2000, as a scientific basis of the social plan of SR Serbia. Two different variants
had been prepared. One understood the linear continuation of noted tendencies from the projected period, and the other is the result
of the hypothesis of the so-called cohort-component method which assumed gradual equaling of fertility namely mortality level
among the municipalities within each macro-entity of Serbia, with migrations abstracted.
By applying several indicators, based on relative discrepancy of projected total district population from the registered values by
census, the projected mistake intensity and direction has been determined. The explication of the origin and formation of measured
values had been carried out by analyzing the discrepancies of projected trends of main demographic components in relation to
realized demographic development. Within the analysis, the correlation dependency level was tested between the amount of mistakes
and factors which were recognized as possible sources of discrepancy. The analysis results confirmed the importance of migration
components in projecting populations of smaller territorial units within the country. Although prediction of future migrational
balance is connected with the greatest sources of uncertainty in comparison with the other two components of population
development, especially on a long-term basis, its abstraction from the projected calculations considerably influences more the
exactness of projected results regarding the district level rather than macro-entirety level. The reason lays in the generally more
intensive inner-state migrational trends rather than in outer migrations, as well as in the proportionally larger migration effect on
small population units in comparison with macro-entireties. One of the basic results of this analysis indicates that the greatest
discrepancies of projected results, in relation to realized values, are connected precisely to districts where demographic development
of migrational components had their greatest influence.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1-4/2005
godina XLIII
Novakovi, Nada
TEORIJE O NASTANKU I STRUKTURI PORODINIH ZADRUGA
THEORIES ON THE BEGINNINGS AND STRUCTURE OF JOINT-FAMILIES ("ZADRUGA")
105-134
K.r.: porodina zadruga, srodstvo, podela rada, kolektivna svojina, poreski sistem
K.w.: family communities zadruga, kinship, division of labor, common property, tax system
U ovom radu autor se kritiki odnosi prema najpoznatijim shvatanjima pojma porodine zadruge. U prvom planu su radovi, do sada
nazivanih, jugoslovenskih autora. Radovi stranih autora su u drugom planu. Oni se klasifikuju po jednom optijem principu po
tome kako objanjavaju nastanak porodine zadruge. Od toga, po pravilu, zavisi i vienje osnovnih karakteristika, elemenata
strukture, procesa menjanja, prilagoavanja novim uslovima i nestajanja porodine zadruge.
U prvom delu analizira se doprinos istraivaa koji porodinu zadrugu smatraju ustanovom Slovena. Na taj nain se njena pojava
dovodi u vezu sa elementima odreene etnike zajednice. Ukazuje se na domete i posledice ovakvih shvatanja,
Drugi deo je posveen tumaenjima porodine zadruge kao pojave nastale u feudalizmu. Ona je posledica delovanja poreskog
sistema. Sa njegovim nestajanjem raspada se i zadruga. Ukazuje se na aistorinost ovakvog odreenja drutvenog razvoja i ovog
oblika porodice. Posebno se zamera autorima da su zanemarili klasni karakter feudalizma i da su prenaglasili znaaj faktora sile.
Trei deo se odnosi na teorije koje porodinu zadrugu smatraju ustanovom nastalom na prelazu iz rodovskog u klasno drutvo. Ovi
istraivai naglaavaju da je to opta, istorijski uslovljena pojava, nastala pre klasnog drutva i nestala sa njegovim razvojem. Od
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posebne vanosti su elementi njene strukture, naini menjanja u novim uslovima i procesi nestajanja. Sutina toga shvatanja glasi:
porodina zadruga je opti istorijski oblik porodine organizacije nastao na prelazu iz rodovskog u klasno drutvo. Najvanije
karakteristike su joj: 1) krvno srodstvo mukih lanova; 2) zajednika imovina; 3) nerazvijena podela rada, a ivi ljudski rad je
najvaniji za njen opstanak; 4) demokratsko upravljanje i 5) ona nije zbir prostih porodica; zasnovana je na srodstvu, lozi, i prethodi
nastajanju monogamne porodice.
In this paper the author has a critical standpoint toward the most known theories on joint family communities. The works of the upto-now called Yugoslav authors were put in the foreground. The works of foreign authors were placed after. They were classified by
a general criterion, by how the authors saw the origins of this form of family. The comprehension of the basic characteristics
depends, as a rule, on that, as well as the elements structure, changing processes, adjustment to new conditions and extinction of the
joint family community.
The first part of this article is devoted to theories about family communities as an institution of the Slavs. In this way its origin is
connected with elements of a certain ethnic community. The range and consequences of such beliefs are suggested.
The second part is reserved to explaining the family community as an institution which appeared in feudalism. It is a consequence of
the tax system role. With its termination, the communities fell apart. This kind of social development determination and this type of
family is proven to be ahistorical. It is predominantly stressed that the authors neglected that feudalism was a class society and
overemphasized the force factor significance.
The third part deals with theories which believe joint-family communities as an institution which arose in the transition from tribal to
class society. These researchers stress that it is a general, historically determined conditioned form, which originated before class
society and terminated with its development. Elements of its structure are especially important, as well as methods of its
transformation in new conditions and termination processes. The essence of this belief is the following: a joint-family is a general
historical form of family organization which arose in the transition from tribal to class society. The most important characteristics
are: 1) blood relationship among men members; 2) common property; 3) undeveloped division of labor, and plain peoples work is the
most important for its survival; 4) democratic control; and 5) it is not just mere gathering of simple families; it is based on kinship,
origin and precedes monogrammed families.
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/2005
godina XLIII
Raevi, Mirjana
XXV SVETSKA POPULACIONA KONFERENCIJA, TUR, FRANCUSKA, 18-23. JULI 2005.
135-140
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/2005
godina XLIII
Raevi, Mirjana
DEMOGRAFSKE PERSPEKTIVE U OEBS REGIJI: EKONOMSKE I BEZBEDNOSNE IMPLIKACIJE, TRST,
ITALIJA, 8-9. NOVEMBAR 2004.
140-144
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/2005
godina XLIII
Marinkovi, Ivan
ANALIZA KONANIH REZULTATA POPISA STANOVNITVA DOMAINSTAVA I STANOVA 2002.,
BEOGRAD, 19. MAJ 2005.
144-148
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/2005
godina XLIII
Penev, Goran
MIGRACIJE, KRIZE I NEDAVNI RATNI SUKOBI NA BALKANU, BEOGRAD, 27-29. OKTOBAR 2005.
149-152
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asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1-4/2005
godina XLIII
urev, Branislav S.
TREI SIMPOZIJUM "AKADEMIK BERISLAV BETA BERI": STANJE I PERSPEKTIVE STANOVNITVA AP
VOJVODINE I SUSEDNIH REGIONA, NOVI SAD, 10-11. NOVEMBAR 2005.
152-156
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/2005
godina XLIII
Kuburovi, Ankica
GORDANA TRIPKOVI "MATERINSTVO KULTURNI OBRAZAC SRBA"
157-160
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/2005
godina XLIII
Gavrilovi, Ana
EDICIJA "PLANIRANJE PORODICE" KNJIGA VIII I IX
161-165
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1-4/2005
godina XLIII
Kuburovi, Ankica
SMILJKA TOMANOVI "SOCIOLOGIJA DETINJSTVA, SOCIOLOKA HRESTOMATIJA"
165-168
asopis Stanovnitvo
prilog
broj 1-4/2005
godina XLIII
Moji, Novka i drugi
PROGRAM DEMOGRAFSKOG RAZVOJA AUTONOMNE POKRAJINE VOJVODINE SA MERAMA ZA
NJEGOVO SPROVOENJE
169-217
***************************************************************************
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2006
godina XLIV
Matkovi, Gordana
OVERVIEW OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION IN THE WESTERN BALKANS
PREGLED SIROMATVA I SOCIJALNE ISKLJUENOSTI U ZEMLJAMA ZAPADNOG BALKANA
7-46
K.w.: poverty, social exclusion, Western Balkans, vulnerable groups
K.r.: siromatvo, socijalna iskljuenost, Zapadni Balkan, ugroene grupe
During the last 15 years the entire Western Balkan region has undergone dramatic changes. With the fall of the Berlin wall and the
disintegration of the former Yugoslavia, new states were formed and transition started, although in some countries it was quite
delayed. Simultaneously, during the nineties, much of the region experienced wars and destruction, waves of refugees, internal
displacement of population, devastation of the economy, demolition of institutions and impoverishment of citizens.
Absolute poverty, determined through the estimation of household consumption at which families, after paying for essential non-food
expenditures just attain minimal nutritional needs, in almost all of the Western Balkans is still relatively high, and is not showing
significant tendencies of decreasing. A large concentration of the population and households just above the poverty line additionally
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demonstrates the challenges faced by the entire region while undergoing the transition process. In some countries extreme poverty,
meaning that not even basic food needs can be met, has been registered. On the other hand, relative poverty, defined as the share of
those who are excluded from the minimum acceptable way of life in states in which they live, is not particularly high. Due to the
relatively high standard of living in the past and high expectations of the population that living standards would increase in a
relatively short period of time, the subjective perception of poverty in the entire region is very much present.
Groups that stand out as especially vulnerable and excluded are the unemployed, dependents and the less educated. At the level of the
household, in some countries households with many children and elderly households are particularly vulnerable. The poorest often
live in the rural areas and in the underdeveloped regions. In addition, especially vulnerable groups, who cannot even be completely
covered by standard surveys, but are poor and socially excluded by many indices are the Roma, refugees and IDPs and persons with
disabilities.
Concurrently undergoing transition, post conflict reconciliation and reconstruction and striving to pursue their European Union
future, the Western Balkan countries face many challenges. One of the greatest challenges is to focus on programs and activities that
will lead to equitable and sustained economic growth that will also benefit the vulnerable groups.
Almost all Western Balkan countries, through their national plans and programs, have marked employment growth and job creation
as the most important single mechanism for exiting poverty. The second priority may be an increase of education coverage and
improving the quality of education, although reduction of poverty and social exclusion presupposes improvement in the areas of
developing appropriate social safety nets, health care systems, securing adequate housing, participation in decision making and
protection of human rights.
Bearing in mind the commitment of the Western Balkan countries to meet the globally agreed goals manifested in the MDGs, their
efforts to proceed with anti-poverty strategies and aspirations in terms of EU accession, it is of the utmost importance to explore the
synergies between these agendas to ensure that the processes reinforce each other.
itav region Zapadnog Balkana poslednjih 15 godina prolazio je kroz dramatine promene. Sa raspadom bive Jugoslavije formirane
su nove drave, a sa padom Berlinskog zida zapoela je i tranzicija, iako u nekim zemljama sa velikim zakanjenjem. Paralelno,
najvei deo regiona je tokom devedesetih godina prolog veka iskusio ratove i razaranja, meuetnike sukobe, talase izbeglitva,
raseljavanje, propadanje privrede i osiromaenje stanovnitva, razaranje institucija.
Apsolutno siromatvo, koje podrazumeva da mogu da se zadovolje samo minimalne potrebe za hranom i drugim neophodnim
trokovima, jo uvek je relativno visoko u gotovo svim zemljama Zapadnog Balkana i ne pokazuje znaajniju tendenciju smanjenja.
Velika gustina stanovnitva i domainstava neposredno iznad linije siromatva dodatno oslikava teke izazove sa kojima se itavo
podruje suoava, prolazei istovremeno kroz proces tranzicije. U pojedinim zemljama jo uvek je prisutno i ekstremno siromatvo,
koje podrazumeva da ne mogu da budu zadovoljene ni bazine potrebe za hranom. S druge strane, relativno siromatvo, definisano
kao udeo domainstava koja ne mogu da ostvare minimalno prihvatljiv nivo ivotnog standarda u zemlji u kojoj ive, nije posebno
visoko. Zahvaljujui visokom ivotnom standardu u prolosti i velikim oekivanjima u pogledu njegovog brzog oporavka, oseaj
subjektivnog siromatva iroko je rasprostranjen u celom regionu.
Meu ugroenim grupama, iskljuenim iz ekonomskog i drutvenog ivota izdvajaju se nezaposleni, izdravana lica i nedovoljno
obrazovani. Na nivou domainstava u pojedinim zemljama posebno su ugroena domainstva sa mnogo dece i staraka domainstva.
Najsiromaniji esto ive na selu i u podrujima koja su tradicionalno siromana. Dodatno, kao posebno ugroene grupe, koje se
standardnim anketama esto ne mogu ni obuhvatiti, ali koje su po mnogim indicijama siromane, su Romi, izbegla i raseljena lica i
osobe sa invaliditetom.
Istovremeno prolazei kroz tranziciju, postkonfliktnu obnovu i rekonstrukciju i teei evropskoj budunosti, zemlje Zapadnog
Balkana suoavaju se sa mnogim izazovima. Jedan od najveih izazova je fokusiraje na programe i aktivnosti koji e obezbediti
ravnomeran i odriv privredni razvoj, uz istovremeno poboljanje poloaja i ugroenih grupa.
Gotovo sve zemlje Zapadnog Balkana su u svojim nacionalnim planovima i programima izdvojile rast zaposlenosti i stvaranje novih
radnih mesta kao najvaniji pojedinani izlaz iz zaaranog kruga siromatva. Sledei prioritet je vei obuhvat obrazovanjem i
poboljanje kvaliteta obrazovnih programa, iako smanjenje socijalne iskljuenosti i siromatva podrazumeva i poboljanje mrea
socijalne sigurnosti, unapreenje zdravstvenog sistema, obezbeenje adekvatnih uslova stanovanja, participaciju ugroenih grupa u
donoenju odluka, potovanje ljudskih prava.
Imajui u vidu opredeljenost zemalja Zapadnog Balkana da ostvare Milenijumske razvojne ciljeve, napore koji se ulau u programe
za smanjenje siromatva i aspiracije u pogledu evropskih integracija, izuzetno je znaajno da se ostvari sinergija izmeu ovih procesa
i njhovo meusobno osnaivanje.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2006
godina XLIV
Zlatko Isakovi
STANOVNITVO I TERITORIJA KAO ELEMENTI POLITIKE MOI U MEUNARODNIM ODNOSIMA
POPULATION AND TERRITORY AS ELEMENTS OF POLITICAL POWER IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
47-80
K.r.: stanovnitvo, teritorija, politika mo, meunarodni odnosi
K.w.: population, teritory, political power, international affairs
U radu se obrauju teritorija i stanovnitvo kao elementi politike moi subjekata meunarodnih odnosa. Prvi deo rada je posveen
stanovnitvu, odnosno njegovim kvantitativnim (broj ljudi) i kvalitativnim obelejima, odnosno strukturi itd.
Drugi deo rada je posveen karakteristikama teritorije (njenoj veliini i geografskom poloaju). Kvalitet je odreen prvenstveno u
skladu sa njenim ekonomskim vrednostima. Geografski poloaj zavisi od susedstva i granica.
U zakljunom delu rada naglaava se da uzajamno poreenje izmeu teritorije i broja stanovnika relativno lako, dok ono postaje
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daleko tee ako se uzmu u obzir kvalitativne karakteristike oba ova elementa politike moi. Odnos izmeu populacije i teritorije
nalazi se u injenici da je ljudima potreban prostor za njihov ivot. Ljudi su ti koji u ratovima i pregovorima, kao i na druge mirne
naine odreuju kvantitete i kvalitete teritorija njihovih drava. Otvoreno je pitanje cene (ljudskih ivota, zdravlja, ivotnog
standarda itd.) koju vredi platiti za neku teritoriju ako je to percipirano od strane politikih odluilaca kao nacionalni ili slian interes.
Ljudi su ti koji idejama, radom i ponaanjem uopte direktno utiu na broj pripadnika njihovih populacija i koriste i percipiraju
prostor na odreene naine. Ljudi su subjektivni inilac politike moi uopte.
Najznaajniji efekti moderne specijalizovane i globalne informaciono-telekomunikacione tehnologije sastoje se u promenjenom
poimanju kategorija prostora i vremena.
Komunikacije su jedan od promenjenih preduslova i uslova drutvene integracije i sposobnosti za opstanak uopte ljudi na odreenoj
teritoriji. Svet je postao mnogo manji, povezan i percipiran od strane veine njegove populacije kao univerzalan, u njegovoj celini i
kao jedino boravite i sklonite. U XX veku pojavila se komunikaciona deteritorijalizacija i moe se predvideti da e ovaj razvoj biti
nastavljen u XXI veku. Ljudi e postajati sve vie nomadi, a njihove ideje i robe e se kretati sve bre i u veim koliinama. Veza
izmeu populacije i teritorije e slabiti, a dravne teritorije bie sve manje i manje znaajne. Meutim, ljudski ivot nee gubiti
sopstvenu prostornost.
Ljudi e ostati subjektivni element meunarodnih i drugih odnosa, a kloniranje ako postane masovna pojava poee da
predstavlja, pored ostalih stvari, negaciju pojave individualnosti ljudi i, na taj nain, njihove subjektivnosti.
This paper deals with population and territory as elements of political power of international relations actors. The first part is devoted
to the population, i.e. its quantitative (number of people) and qualitative characteristics, i.e. structure, etc.
The second part of the paper deals with basic characteristic of the territory (its size, quality, and geographical position). The quality is
determined primarily according to economic values of the area. Geographic position depends of neighbours and borders.
In the concluding part of the paper it is stressed that mutual comparison between area and number of population is relatively easy,
while comparison becomes much harder when one takes into account the qualitative characteristics of the both elements of political
power. The relation between population and territory is in the fact that people need room, i.e. space for their living. People are those
who in wars and negotiations and other peaceful ways determine quantities and qualities of territories of their states. There is the
open question of a price (human lives, health, living standards, etc.) worth to be paid for a territory if it is perceived by political
decision makers as the national or similar interest.
People are those who by their ideas, work and behaviour in general directly influence number of population members and utilise and
perceive space in certain ways. People are subjective factors of political power in general.
First action of the modern specialised and global information-telecommunication technology is in the changed comprehending of
categories of space and time. Communications are one of important preconditions and conditions of social integration and capability
for survival in general of people on certain territory. The Earth became much smaller, linked and perceived by majority of its
population as the universal, whole and only domicile and shelter. During the 20th century communication deterritorialization
appeared and one could predict that this development will be continued in this century. People will become more and more nomads,
and their ideas and goods will move more and more quickly and in greater numbers. The link between population and territory will
be weakened, and state territories will be less and less relevant. However, human life will not loose its spatiality.
People will remain the subjective element of international and other relations, and cloning if becomes mass phenomenon will
begin to represent, beside others things, negation of peoples individuality and, in this way, their subjectivity.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2006
godina XLIV
Raevi, Mirjana, Goran Penev
DEMOGRAFSKA SLIKA BEOGRADA NA POETKU 21.VEKA
THE DEMOGRAPHIC PICTURE OF BELGRADE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 21ST CENTURY
81-96
K.r.: populacioni rast, strukture stanovnitva, populaciona politika, Beograd
K.w.: population growth, population structure, population policy, Belgrade
Centralni deo rada predstavlja utvrivanje demografske slike Grada Beograda na poetku 21. veka. Kao osnovni elementi razmatrani
su broj stanovnika i komponente demografskog rasta putem prirodnog prirataja i migracionog salda, odnosno fertiliteta i mortaliteta.
Posebna panja je posveena problemu izbeglitva (broju i prostornoj distribuciji izbeglica). Od struktura stanovnitva razmotrene su
starosna i polna, zatim brana i obrazovna, kao i ekonomske. Data je, takoe, aktuelna etnika slika i promene u odnosu na poetak
1990-ih godina.
Analiza demografske slike je omoguila da se ukae na implikacije za budunost uoenih populacionih tendencija i izdvoje osnovni
demografski problemi koje treba starteki reavati na nivou Grada Beograda i drave.
The central part of this paper is devoted to establishing the demographic picture of the City of Belgrade at the beginning of the 21st
century. The authors discuss the number of inhabitants and the components of demographic growth through natural increase (fertility
and mortality) on the one hand and net migration on the other. Special attention was paid to the problem of refugees (the number and
spacial distribution of refugees). Age and sex structure, the structure by marital status, as well as educational, and economic
structures were analyzed. Current ethnic structure, as well as the changes in this structure since the early 1990s, were also presented.
The analysis of the demographic picture has made it possible, first of all, to show the implications for the future of the established
population trends, and second of all, to single out the basic demographic problems that need to be addressed strategically by the City
of Belgrade and by the State.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1/2006
godina XLIV
Raevi, Mirjana
SEMINAR "ODLAGANJE RAANJA DECE U EVROPI", BE, 1-3. DECEMBAR, 2005.
97-101
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1/2006
godina XLIV
Stankovi, Biljana
SEDMI NACIONALNI GERONTOLOKI KONGRES "KVALITET IVOTA U STAROSTI IZAZOVI XXI
VEKA" VRNJAKA BANJA, 9-12. MAJ 2006.
101-106
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prikaz
broj 1/2006
godina XLIV
Marinkovi, Ivan
TOMAS FREJKA, JEAN-PAUL SARDON "CHILDBEARING TRENDS AND PROSPECTS IN LOW-FERTILITY
COUNTRIES: A COHORT ANALYSIS"
107-112
asopis Stanovnitvo
broj 1/2006
godina XLIV
Vladimir Bralovi
DOMINIQUE TABUTIN, BRUNO SCHOUMAKER "LA DMOGRAPHIE DU MONDE ARABE ET DU MOYENORIENT DES ANNES 1950 AUX ANNES 2000", POPULATION DITION FRANAISE
112-117
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/2006
godina XLIV
Gavrilovi, Ana
"EVOLUCIJA POPULACIONE POLITIKE U SRBIJI 1945-2004", DEMOGRAFSKI ZBORNIK SANU KNJIGA
VII
117-122
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2006
godina XLIV
Kokkali, Ifigeneia
IMMIGRATION ALBANAISE EN GRECE: DIFFUSION ET DISPERSION DANS LE TERRITOIRE URBAIN. LE
CAS DE THESSALONIQUE
ALBANSKA EMIGRACIJA U GRCKOJ: RAZMESTAJ I KONCENTRACIJA U GRADSKIM PODRUJIMA.
PRIMER SOLUNA
ALBANIAN IMMIGRATION TO GREECE: DIFFUSION AND DISPERSION IN URBAN AREA. THE CASE OF
THESSALONIKI
7-34
M.c.: migrations internationales, pays dimmigration, quartiers /colonies/ enclaves ethniques, sgrgation spatiale,
rpartition/diffusion
K.r.: spoljne migracije, zemlja prijema, gradske etnike enklave, prostorna segregacija, prostorni razmetaj, Grka,
Solun, Albanci
K.w.: international migrations, immigration country, neighbourhood /colonies/ ethnic enclaves, spatial segregation,
repartition/diffusion
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Limmigration albanaise en Grce peut tre qualifie de singulire: la diffrence dautres groupes de migrants qui ont tendance se
concentrer dans des rgions spcifiques, essentiellement lagglomration athnienne, les immigrs albanais en Grce sont disperss
sur lensemble du territoire national. Cette spcificit parat dautant plus affirme que la rpartition de limmigration albanaise
semble obir au mme schma lintrieur mme des centres urbains.
Lobjet de cette communication sera de mettre en valeur cette double spcificit de limmigration albanaise, dans le territoire national
grec, mais aussi dans le territoire urbain, travers lexemple de Thessalonique. Notre but, ainsi, sera de montrer la rpartition des
mnages et des individus dorigine albanaise Thessalonique et de comparer leur distribution spatiale avec celle dautres groupes de
migrants. Cela nous permettra de dessiner le "pattern" spatial que revt la migration albanaise Thessalonique, et dclaircir le mode
dinsertion territorial des immigrs albanais.
Albanska emigracija u Grkoj se moe okarakterisati kao specifina. Za razliku od drugih grupa doseljenika, koji tee da se
koncentriu na odreenim podrujima, a pre svega na podruju Atine, Albanci su razmeteni na itavoj teritoriji Grke. Ta osobenost
se ini mnogo znaajnijom od injenice da je razmetaj albanskih doseljenika u okvirima urbanih centara u skladu sa optim
modelom prostornog razmetaja migrantskog stanovnitva.
U radu su sagledane dve specifinosti albanskih migranata, s jedne strane, na podruju Grke kao celine, a s druge, na urbanim
podrujima, i to na primeru Soluna. Prikazan je razmetaj domainstava i stanovnitva albanskog porekla u Solunu i izvreno je
poreenje njihovog i prostornog razmetaja ostalih migrantskih grupa. To je omoguilo da se definie prostorni model albanskih
emigranata u Solunu i nain njihove prostornog rasporeda.
Albanian immigration in Greece could be qualified as singular, given its ample repartition throughout the national territory, which is
not the case for other migrant groups that tend to be concentrated in specific areas, in particular, in the Athenian agglomeration. This
"exemplary" migration seems to generate comparable patterns even within the urban space.
The object of this paper will be to relate these two portrayals of Albanian migration: within both the national Greek territory and the
urban space, through the example of Thessaloniki. Our objective will thus be to illustrate Albanian households repartition in
Thessaloniki and to compare their spatial distribution with the distribution of other migrant groups. In this way, we will be able to
demonstrate the spatial pattern that Albanian migration takes on in Thessaloniki, as well as to reveal the Albanian immigrants mode
of territorial insertion.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2006
godina XLIV
Vojkovi, Gordana, Branislav Stojanovi
GOLIJA RAZVITAK STANOVNITVA I DEMOGRAFSKE PERSPEKTIVE
GOLIJA POPULATION DEVELOPMENT AND PERSPECTIVES
35-64
K.r.: stanovnitvo, depopulacija, demografske procene, Golija
K.w.: population, depopulation, demographic estimations, Golija
Osnovna ideja istraivanja bila je da se utvrdi stanje i problemi u razvitku stanovnitva jedne izolovane planinske sredine, koja je u
Prostornom planu Srbije izdvojena kao potencijalno razvojno i atraktivno podruje, budui da raspolae visokovrednim prirodnim
resursima. Istraivanje je fokusirano na neposredno zatieno podruje Parka prirode "Golija" ali, gde god je to bilo potrebno zarad
boljeg razumevanja demografskih kretanja, analizirano je i ire funkcijsko-gravitacijsko podruje, koje u adminsitrativnom pogledu
pripada optinama Ivanjica, Kraljevo, Novi Pazar, Raka i Sjenica.
Utvreno je da podruje Golije odlikuju sledei nepovoljni (ograniavajui) elementi demografskog razvoja: konstantan populacioni
pad, koji je prisutan u praktino svim naseljima; intenzivan proces iseljavanja stanovnitva, koji se poslednjih desetak godina
usporava usled smanjenja broja potencijalnih emigranata; poremeaji u svim relevantnim demografskim strukturama; intenziviranje
procesa demografskog starenja, koje rezultira i kontinuiranim padom prirodnog prirataja i uruavanjem svih osnovnih funkcionalnih
kontingenata stanovnitva, to e se, svakako, negativno odraziti na buduu reprodukciju i obnavljanje stanovnitva. Ako se uzme u
obzir ovako nepovoljno stanje, onda se opravdano postavlja pitanje demografske, a time dovode u pitanje i razvojne, perspektive
ovog planinskog prostora.
U drugom delu rada ukazuje se na demografske perspektive podruja Golije. Prema prvoj varijanti procena, koja polazi od
pretpostavke o nastavljanju dosadanjih osnovnih tendencija u demografskom razvoju, do 2030. godine broj stanovnika Golije bio bi
gotovo prepolovljen. U drugoj varijanti procena polo se od pretpostavke da e se u bliskoj budunosti, imajui u vidu planirane
razvojne aktivnosti, ostvariti neke ozbiljnije promene u funkcionalnoj strukturi ovog prostora, a koje bi rezultirale neto brim
tempom ukupnog razvoja pojedinih njegovih delova, to bi se reflektovalo i na postepeno usporavanje negativnih tendencija u
njegovom populacionom razvoju u celini. Treba naglasiti da bi se prvi, poetni, pozitivni efekti ozbiljnije manifestovali tek najranije
za 20 godina. To znai da bi do tada postepeno dolo do zaustavljanja ispoljenih tendencija u dosadanjem demografskom razvoju
ovog prostora i formiranja kompleksnih (i razvojnih i demografskih) preduslova za njegovu kasniju demografsku revitalizaciju.
Karakteristino je da svi navedeni efekti ne bi spreili demografsko izumiranje 15 naselja. To namee potrebu da se pri definisanju
strategije ureenja i razvoja ove prostorne celine moraju jasno izdvojiti naselja, i njihove funkcijske zone, koja imaju odreene
razvojne predispozicije, naselja koja imaju minimalne, demografske i funkcionalne, potencijale za budui razvoj, i naselja koja u
periodu prospekcije mogu demografski opstati.
The basic research idea was to determine the state and problems in population development of an isolated mountainous region, which
has been marked as a potentially developmental and attractive region in the Regional Plan of Serbia, having in mind that it is rich in
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valuable natural resources. Research was focused just on the protected region of the "Golija" Nature Park, however, wherever it was
necessary for better understanding of demographic trends, the wider functional-gravitational region was analyzed, which belongs to
the districts of Ivanjica, Kraljevo, Novi Pazar, Raka and Sjenica in the administration sense.
It was determined that the following unfavorable (limiting) elements of demographic development are characteristic for the region of
Golija: constant decrease of population, which is present in practically all settlements, intensive population emigration which has
been decreasing in the last ten years or so due to the decrease in the number of potential emigrants; fluctuations in all relevant
demographic structures; intensification of the process of demographic ageing which results in continual decrease of natural growth
and disruption of all basic functional contingents of population which will certainly negatively affect future reproduction and
population replacement. If such a negative state is taken into consideration then the question of demographic and thus developmental
perspectives of this mountainous region is justifiably imposed and brought into question.
The second part of the paper indicates to the demographic perspectives of the Golija region. According to the first estimation variant,
which proceeds from the assumption on the continuation of the basic tendencies in demographic development so far, the number of
inhabitants of Golija would be halved by the year 2030. In the second estimation variant, which proceeds from the assumption that in
the near future some more serious changes in the functional structure of this region will be realized, having in mind some planned
developmental activities, which would result in a somewhat faster tempo of total development of its certain parts which would reflect
the gradual slowing down of negative tendencies in its population development on the whole as well. It should be stressed that the
first, initial, positive effects would be manifested more seriously only in 20 years at the earliest. That means that by then there would
be gradual ceasing of the demonstrated tendencies in demographic development of this region so far and the forming of complex
(both developmental and demographic) prerequisites for its further demographic revitalization. It is characteristic that all the stated
effects would not prevent the demographic dying out of 15 settlements. This imposes the requirement that when defining the
organization strategies and development of this regional entirety, settlements must clearly be distinguished as well as their functional
zones which have certain developmental predispositions, as well as settlements which have minimal, demographic and functional,
potentials for future development and settlements which in the prospective period can demographically survive.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2006
godina XLIV
Devedi, Mirjana
RODNE (NE)JEDNAKOSTI IZ DEMOGRAFSKE
GENDER INEQUALITIES FROM THE DEMOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVE
65-88
K.r.: demografija, rodne nejednakosti
K.w.: demography, gender inequalities
U radu se polazi od sintagme "pozicija ene u drutvu", koja se u demografiji uvaava kao vaan kulturoloki faktor demografskog
razvitka i tranzicionih promena. Ukazuje se na kvalitativne pomake u enskom statusu i istovremeno otkriva aktuelnost ovog pitanja,
ne samo u tradicionalnim, ve i modernim graanskim drutvima. Sa druge strane, objanjava se znaenje pola kao biodemografske
determinante i uvodi pojam roda koji prethodnim pojmovima daje novu dimenziju i integrie ih. Rodni reimi, koji podrazumevaju
podreenost ena u javnim i privatnim socijalnim strukturama, sagledavaju se iz demografske perspektive, samo u onim
fenomenolokim aspektima koji se mogu podrati demografskim istraivanjima, teorijom i analizama. Tako se prati znaaj jaanja
rodnih ravnopravnosti za tranziciju fertiliteta i mortaliteta, sagledava uticaj rodnosti na polni sastav stanovnitva u junoazijskim
zemljama, a rodnost se koristi i kao klju tumaenja pojedinih socio-ekonomskih struktura. Takoe se istie da uspostavljanje rodne
ravnopravnosti postaje relevantan element populacione politike. Niz primera o demografskim pojavama iz razliitih drutava, u ijoj
se pozadini nalaze rodni reimi, ilustruju globalnost patrijarhalnog poretka. U radu se iznose pojedini teorijski postulati o rodnim
nejednakostima, nalazi njihova konekcija sa demografskim ponaanjima i demografskim pokazateljima. Na kraju se sumira kakvo je
mesto demografije u istraivanju rodnih (ne)jednakosti, i kakvu nam perspektivu o nainu i brzini uspostavljanja rodne
ravnopravnosti ona nudi. Demografija se prikazuje kao disciplina koja ima nezamenljivo mesto u ispitivanju rodnih nejednakosti,
prvenstveno na globalnom nivou. Sa razvojem kvalitativnih metoda u demografiji i njenim poimanjem kao multidisciplinarne nauke,
demografija postaje jo bliskija problematici "enskog pitanja".
The paper analyzes the meaning of the phrase "the womans status in the society" that is recognized in demography as an important
cultural factor of demographic development and transitional changes. The analysis indicates qualitative shifts in the womans status
and simultaneously reveals its importance at present, not only in traditional, but also in modern and developed societies. On the other
hand, it explains the importance of sex as a biodemographic determinant, and introduces the concept of gender that sheds another
light on the concepts of sex and womans status in the society and integrates them. Gender regimes that subsume the inferiority of
women in public and private social structures are examined from demographic perspective, albeit only in those phenomenological
aspects that can be supported by demographic research, theories, and analyses. To this end, the paper analyzes the effects of
strengthening gender equalities on the fertility and mortality transitions, the genders impact on the population distribution by sex in
South Asian countries, and highlights the key role of gender in interpreting certain social and economic structures. It also stresses the
establishing of gender equality as an important element of population policies. The global dimension of the patriarchal society is
illustrated through a series of examples of demographic phenomena from various societies. Gender regimes underlie all of these
phenomena. The paper puts foreword certain theoretical hypotheses about gender inequalities, and finds their connections with
demographic behaviors and demographic indicators. Finally, it summarizes the role of demography in gender (in)equality research
and the demographic perspective of the way and the speed the demographic equality is being established. Demography is seen as an
irreplaceable discipline in examining gender inequalities, especially at the global level. With the advance of qualitative methods in
demography and with its multidisciplinary nature, demography gets closer and closer to the field of "woman issues".
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/2006
godina XLIV
Kuburovi, Ankica
PIERELLA PACI "GENDER IN TRANZITION"
89-92
asopis Stanovnitvo
statistiki prilog
broj 2/2006
godina XLIV
Marinkovi, Ivan
STATISTIKA SLIKA ENA I MUKARACA U EVROPI
93-105
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2007
godina XLV
Nikitovi, Vladimir
STOHASTIKA PROJEKCIJA STANOVNITVA CENTRALNE SRBIJE NA OSNOVU EMPIRIJSKIH
PROJEKCIONIH GREAKA
STOCHASTIC FORECAST OF THE POPULATION OF CENTRAL SERBIA BASED ON EMPIRIC FORECAST
ERRORS
7-31
K.r.: stohastika prognoza, empirijske projekcione greke, centralna Srbija
K.w.: stochastic forecast, empiric projection errors, Central Serbia
Na primeru projekcije stanovnitva Centralne Srbije za period 2005-2032. godine, predstavljene su osnove probabilistikog koncepta
u prognoziranju kretanja demografskih komponenti razvoja populacije. Stohastiki element prognoze zasnovan je na analizi
empirijskih projekcionih greaka odgovarajuih pokazatelja demografskog razvoja. Okosnicu analize inile su projekcije zvaninih
statistikih zavoda objavljene tokom druge polovine 20. veka. Statistike distribucije verovatnoe za odabrane projekcione parametre
formirane su oko varijante srednjih vrednosti odgovarajuih indikatora u aktuelnoj nacionalnoj projekciji stanovnitva, objavljenoj od
strane Republikog zavoda za statistiku Srbije (RZS) za period 2002-2032. godine. Osnovne odlike probabilistikog pristupa
prognoziranja izloene su kroz meusobno poreenje glavnih metodolokih pretpostavki odnosno kroz uporednu demografskostatistiku valorizaciju rezultata sa tradicionalnim deterministikim konceptom, predstavljenim projekcijom RZS. Stohastika
prognoza stanovnitva Centralne Srbije jasno je ukazala na kljune prednosti ovog pristupa: metodoloku konzistentnost u
kvantifikovanju demografskih pokazatelja, kao i mogunost transparentnog korienja rezultata u brojnim vidovima drutvenog
planiranja. Na taj nain, bez obzira na jo uvek prisutna ogranienja u razvoju probabilistikog pristupa, istaknut je znaaj potrebe za
izradom studiozne nacionalne projekcije stanovnitva Srbije u potpunosti zasnovane na stohastikoj osnovi.
Based on the example of the forecast of the population of Central Serbia for the 2005-2032 period, the basic probabilistic concept in
forecasting the trends of demographic components of population development have been presented. The stochastic element of
forecast is based on the analysis of empirical forecast errors of corresponding indicators of demographic development. The analysis
frameworks were forecasts of official bureaus of statistics published during the second half of the 20th century. The statistical
distribution of probability for chosen forecast parameters were formed around so called middle variant of corresponding indicators in
the current national forecast of population, published by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (SORS) for the period 20022032. The basic characteristics of the probabilistic approach of forecasting were presented through mutual comparison of the main
methodological assumptions, namely though comparative demographic-statistical valorization of results with traditional deterministic
concept, represented by forecasts of RSB. The stochastic forecast of the population of Serbia clearly indicated to the key advantages
of this approach: methodological consistency in quantifying demographic indicators as well as the possibility of transparent usage of
results in numerous aspects of social planning. In this way the significance of the necessity for the elaboration of a studious national
forecast of the population of Serbia completely based on a stochastic basis has been stressed, regardless of the still-present
restrictions in the development of the probabilistic approach.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2007
godina XLV
Raevi, Mirjana, Katarina Sedlecki
GINEKOLOZI I ABORTUSNO PITANJE U SRBIJI
GYNECOLOGISTS AND THE ABORTION ISSUE IN SERBIA
33-45
K.r.: reproduktivno zdravlje, ginekolozi, Srbija
K.w.: reproductive health, gynecologists, Serbia
Tradicionalna, neefikasna kontracepcija je u velikoj meri inkorporirana u sistem vrednosti, postala prirodni deo seksualnog odnosa u
Srbiji i predstavlja, sa individualnog stanovita, racionalan preventivni izbor. No, kada se iz razliitih razloga trudnoa ne eli ili ne
moe prihvatiti, pribegava se namernom prekidu trudnoe. Otuda duga istorija velikog broja abortusa u Srbiji. Istraivaki prodori u
naoj sredini kao najvanije faktore vezane za neprihvatanje modernih vrednosti u ovoj sferi izdvajaju da tradicionalna kontracepcija
i namerni prekid trudnoe imaju vrstu socijalnu potvrdu, da postoji transgeneracijski transfer psiiholokog otpora prema upotrebi
kombinovane oralne kontracepcije i intrauterinog umetka, da seksualna edukacija nije nikada postala ni prirodni deo odrastanja u
porodici, ni sastavni deo kolskih programa, kao i da postoje jasne prepreke razliite prirode vezane za dostupnost kontracepcije
Razvijena mrea razliitih tipova savetovalita za planiranje porodice je vana determinanta dostupnosti kontraceptivnih sredstava i
metoda. Postoji, medjutim, niz uslova koji treba da budu ispunjeni da bi savetovalita za kontracepciju efikasno funkcionisala. Meu
njima, posebno je vaan uslov motivisano osoblje koje je steklo niz optih i specifinih znanja za rad u ovoj oblasti. Ova teorijska
pretpostavka otvara pitanje da li su ginekolozi vaan faktor spore tranzicije kontrole raanja u Srbiji? Odgovor smo potraili u analizi
nalaza dobijenih putem dve dubinske ankete koje su ili doticale ovu temu ili, pak, u istraivaki centar postavili utvrivanje znanja,
stavova i ponaanja ginekologa. Prvo istraivanje, vezano za otkrivanje uzroka velikog broja abortusa u naoj sredini, je bilo okrenuto
enama koje su se odluile da namerno prekinu trudnou. Ginekolozi Srbije su predstavljali ciljnu grupu u drugom istraivanju koje je
bilo KAP tipa.
Nalazi oba istraivanjima jasno ukazuju da ginekolozi, generalno posmatrano, doprinose ouvanju abortusne kulture i sporoj tranziciji
kontrole raanja od upotrebe tradicionalne kontracepcije ka oslanjanju na moderna sredstva i metode u prevenciji zaea u Srbiji. Naime,
znaajan broj ginekologa u naoj sredini je u raskoraku sa principima modernog planiranja porodice. Njihovo znanje, stavovi i praksa
relevantni za individualne kontraceptivne izbore su nedovoljni, konzervativni, neadekvatni. Otuda se namee potreba specijalne
edukacije lekara, a posebno ginekologa, na svim nivoima od osnovnih studija, preko onih specijalistikog tipa, do posebno ciljanih
kurseva, seminara, simpozijuma, konferencija. Sticanje znanja, kao osnovnog elementa svesti, moe uticati na formiranje stavova,
stvaranje motivacije, podsticanje odgovornosti i izgradnju potrebe za promovisanjem drugaijeg sistema vrednosti i filozofije ivljenja u
sferi reproduktivnog zdravlja.
Traditional inefficient contraception, incorporated to a large extent in the system of values, has become a natural part of sexual
relations in Serbia and represents a rational preventive choice from the individual standpoint. However, when pregnancy is unwanted
or cannot be accepted out of any reasons, abortion is used as a resort. For this reason there is a long history of a large number of
abortions in Serbia. Research findings in our country identify the following, as the most important factors for not accepting modern
values in this sphere: traditional contraception and abortion have a firm social confirmation; there is a trans-generational transfer of
psychological resistance towards the use of combined oral contraception pills and intrauterine devices; sexual education has never
become a natural way of growing up in the family, nor is a constituent part of school programs and that distinct obstacles of various
nature exist regarding contraception availability.
A developed network of various types of family planning counseling is an important determinant of the accessibility of contraceptive
means and methods. There are, however, numerous conditions which have to be fulfilled in order for the contraception counseling
services to function properly. Among them, motivated personnel who acquired general and specific knowledge for work in this field
are an especially important prerequisite. This theoretical assumption opens the question whether gynecologists represent an
important factor of slow transition of birth control in Serbia? We searched for the answer in the research analyses obtained through
two in-depth surveys which either had to do with this theme or tried to determine the knowledge, attitude and practice of
gynecologists. The first research, regarding the determination of the causes for a large number of abortions in our country, was
directed towards women who decided on abortion. Gynecologists were the target group in the second research which was KAP type.
The results of both researches clearly indicate that gynecologists, generally observed, contribute to maintaining the abortion culture
and slow transition of birth control from the use of traditional contraception to reliance on modern contraception means and methods
in Serbia. Namely, a significant number of gynecologists in our country are at variance with the principals of modern family
planning. Their knowledge, attitudes and practice relevant for individual contraceptive choices are insufficient, conservative, and
inadequate. Thus, there is a necessity for special education of doctors, especially gynecologists, at all levels from the basic studies,
through specialists ones, to special target courses, seminars, symposiums and conferences. Knowledge acquisition, as the basic
element of consciousness, can affect formation of standpoints, motivation, promote responsibility and create the requirement for
promoting a different system of values and philosophy of living in the sphere of reproductive health.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2007
godina XLV
Kuburovi, Ankica
RODNA NERAVNOPRAVNOST NA PRIMERU SOCIO-DEMOGRAFSKIH STRUKTURA STANOVNITVA
BEOGRADA
GENDER INEQUALITY ON THE EXAMPLE OF SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURES OF BELGRADE
POPULATION
47-77
K.r.: rodna neravnopravnost, demografske strukture, Beograd, popis 2002.
K.w.: gender inequality, demographic structures, Belgrade, 2002 census
Analiza demografskih karakteristika iz perspektive rodnosti predstavlja prilog rasvetljavanju drutvenog odnosa izmeu enskog i
mukog stanovnitva Beograda. Rodna specifinost i profilisanost socio-demografskih struktura ukazuju na razliitost pozicija i
statusa enske i muke populacije.
U ukupnom stanovnitvu glavnog grada Srbije brojnije su ene nego mukarci. Polni debalansi starosnih grupa odreeni su rodnim
razlikama u broju roenih deaka i devojica, u migracionim karakteristikama i u nivou mortaliteta. U populaciji do 20 godina vei je
broj stanovnika mukog pola, dok je enska populacija brojnija meu sredovenima i starima.
Rodne razliitosti u branoj strukturi, nivou obrazovanja i ekonomskoj aktivnosti ne mogu se svesti samo na demografsku
uslovljenost. Vei udeo lica u braku meu mukim nego meu enskim stanovnitvom odreen je i razliitim ponaanjem u pogledu
sklapanja narednog braka u sluaju razvoda ili smrti branog partnera. ene su ee od mukaraca udovice ili razvedene, to se
moe tumaiti kao manje povoljna pozicija u svakodnevnom funkcionisanju, posebno u sluaju ena koje imaju malu ili decu
kolskog uzrasta, kao i u sluaju starijih ena. Rodne razlike u nivou obrazovanja stanovnitva Beograda nisu posebno izraene i u
odreenoj meri su posledica nepovoljnih pozicija starijih generacija enske populacije. Asimetrinost ekonomske aktivnosti, izmeu
ostalog, odreena je i neujednaenom iskorienou enskog i mukog radnog kontingenta. Stopa ekonomske aktivnosti je vea u
mukoj, a koeficijent ekonomske zavisnosti u enskoj populaciji. Rodna razlika u zastupljenosti izdravanih lica meu radno
sposobnim stanovnitvom, pojaava nepovoljan drutveni poloaj ena.
Osobenosti socio-demografskih struktura enskog i mukog stanovnitva Grada Beograda variraju po podrujima. Manifestacija
rodnih razlika moe se povezati sa demografskim i sociolokim specifinostima ueg i ireg gradskog podruja. Posebno se izdvaja
udeo razvedenih ena na uem gradskom podruju i zastupljenost izdravanih lica u enskoj populaciji naselja ireg podruja Grada
Beograda. Neudjednaenost nivoa obrazovanja izmeu ena i mukaraca je manje izraena nego razliitost obrazovne strukture po
podrujima kod stanovnika oba pola.
An analysis of demographic characteristics from the gender perspective represents a contribution to enlightening the social relations
between female and male population in Belgrade. Gender specificity and explicitness of socio-demographic structures indicate to
different positions and statuses of the female and male populations.
There are more females than men in the total population of the capital city of Serbia. The sex imbalance of age groups is determined
by gender differences in the number of born boys and girls, in migration characteristics and in the level of mortality. The male
population is greater in the age group up to 20 years old, while the female population is more numerous among the middle-aged and
older generations.
Gender differences in marital structure, level of education and economic activities cannot be reduced only to demographic limits. A
larger rate of married persons among the males in relation to female population is determined by the different behavior in view of
remarriage in case of divorce or death of partner. Women are widowed or divorced more often than men, which can be interpreted as
a less favorable position in everyday functioning, especially when the women have small or school-age children, as well as in the
case of older women. Gender differences in the level of education of Belgrade population are not exceptionally pronounced and are a
consequence of unfavorable positions of older women to a certain degree. Differences in economic activity, among other things, are
determined by uneven utilization of female and male work force. The rate of economic activity is greater in the male population, and
the coefficient of economic dependency in the female population. The gender difference in the rate of supported persons among the
work capable population increases the unfavorable social position of women.
The characteristics of socio-demographic structures of female and male population of the city of Belgrade vary by areas. The
manifestation of gender differences can be connected with demographic and sociological specificities of the proper and wider city
region. The rate of divorced women in Belgrade proper is especially marked as well as the rate of supported persons in the female
population in Belgrade suburbs. Imbalance in the education level between women and men is less distinct than the differences in
educational structures by regions with population of both sexes.
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lanak
broj 1/2007
godina XLV
Balon, Bojana
RODNO SENZITIVNA STATISTIKA KAO NEOPHODAN ELEMENT U DEMOKRATIZACIJI DRUTVA
GENDER SENSITIVE STATISTICS AS A PREREQUSITE FOR DEMOCRATIZATION OF A SOCIETY
79-95
K.w.: gender sensitive statistics, inequality, women
K.r.: rodno osetljiva statistika, neravnopravnost, ene
Autorka analizira statistike podatke o poloaju ena u Evropskoj uniji i Srbiji koji potvruju da su ene nedovoljno zastupljene u
procesima odluivanja, da su proseno bolje obrazovane od muke populacije, dnevno rade vie od mukaraca, ali da u proseku
zarauju manje od svojih mukih kolega.
Republiki zavod za statistiku Srbije je 2005. godine u publikaciji ene i mukarci u Srbiji po prvi put objavio rodno senzitivne
statistike podatke koji se skupljaju, ali se inae ne prikazuju u redovnim statistikim publikacijama ili se pak prikazuju, ali
nepregledno i nesistematino. Time se ujedno i dokazalo da postoji kako interes tako i potreba za boljim prikupljanjem i statistikom
obradom rodno senzitivnih podataka. Ipak, ta publikacija ne predstavlja radikalnu promenu u prikupljanju podataka na rodno
senzitivan nain. Jo uvek postoji mnogo praznina koje Srbija mora da pokrije ako hoe da odgovori na svoje meunarodne obaveze
u pogledu izvetavanja o poloaju ena u Srbiji.
To je razlog to autorka predstavlja rodno senzitivne kategorije koje se prikupljaju i objavljuju u Nemakoj, Norvekoj i Sloveniji
zemlji ija se statistika bazira na istim osnovama koje su izgraene u bivoj Jugoslaviji, ali je za kratko vreme napredovala ka
evropskim i svetskim standardima, dokazujui da je napredak mogu, ako za to postoji politika volja.
The author analyzes statistical data on position of women in the EU and Serbia, which confirm that women in the EU, as well as in
Serbia, are insufficiently represented in decision-making processes, are on average better educated then men, work more hours per
day but that they on average earn less then men.
Statistical Office of Republic of Serbia has published in 2005 a brochure Women and men in Serbia in which gender sensitive data
were published in a coherent way and also data that they gather but do not represent in regular publications, or they do, but disorderly
and not systematically. By publishing this brochure it was proved that there is interest and the need to better collect gender sensitive
statistical data. Nevertheless, the brochure does not represent a radical breakthrough in methodology of data collection and analysis
of new areas in statistics. There are still many "black holes" that Serbia will have to fill in if it wants to respond to its international
obligations regarding reporting on position of women to international organizations and various bodies.
This is why the author also represented gender sensitive categories which are gathered and published in Germany, Norway and
Slovenia a country where statistics is based on similar grounds which were built in former Yugoslavia and in short time progressed
to European standards, proving that progress is possible, if there is political will.
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/2007
godina XLV
Radovanovi, Duan
VOJIN ULOVI, TIHOMIR VEJNOVI I DRUGI "KAKO ZAUSTAVITI BELU KUGU U SRBIJI"
97-101
asopis Stanovnitvo
statistiki prilog
broj 1/2007
godina XLV
Marinkovi, Ivan
STATISTIKA SLIKA ENA I MUKARACA U SVETU
103-115
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lanak
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godina XLV
Hammel, Eugene A., Carl Mason, Mirjana Stevanovi
PITANJA NASTALA ANALIZOM ETNIKE STRUKTURE STANOVNITVA U SFR JUGOSLAVIJI
QUESTIONS FROM AN ANALYSIS OF ETHNIC DISTRIBUTIONS IN THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA
7-24
K.r.: etnicitet, etnika razliitost, informaciona entropija, Jugoslavija
K.w.: ethnicity, ethnic diversity, informational entropy, Yugoslavia
Etnika raznolikost u SFR Jugoslaviji, merena informacionom entropijom, na nivou naselja, optine i regiona se uveavala u mnogim
regionima u periodu od 1961. do 1991. godine (bez podataka za Sloveniju, Makedoniju i Kosovo i Metohiju za 1991. godinu).
Vojvodina je etniki najraznolikija, a Slovenija je najmanje. Izuzetak je Kosovo i Metohija, gde se etnika raznolikost koja je
pokrenuta ozbiljnim nacionalnim konfliktom smanjuje u periodu od 1961. do 1981. godine. Takoe se pokazuje izvesno umanjenje u
etnikoj razliitosti u 1991. godini koje je moglo nastati migratornim kretanjima u oekivanju nasilja. Ovo upadljivo rasprostranjeno
i dosledno poveavanje u etnikoj raznovrsnosti dovodi u pitanje esto isticano stanovite da je do etnikog pucanja i raspada
Jugoslavije dovela dugopostojea nacionalna mrnja meu irokim narodnim masama. Naprotiv, ovde je predloeno stanovite po
kojem je raspad Jugoslavije proizaao iz nadmetanja meu politikim voama, a bio podstaknut ozbiljnim ekonomskim tekoama
koje su ih u potrazi za politikom podrkom vodile potenciranju nacionalne pripadnosti. Ovom analizom autori podkrepljuju vienje
po kojem je raspad Jugoslavije tekao od vrha ka dnu, a ne od dna ka vrhu politike hijerarhije.
Ethnic diversity in the former Yugoslavia, measured as informational entropy, increased in most regions at the level of the naselje,
the optina, and the region, 1961-1991 (no useful data for Slovenia, Macedonia, and Kosovo in 1991). Vojvodina is the most diverse
region, Slovenia the least. An exception to the increase is Kosovo-Metohija, where diversity decreased 1961-1981, driven by already
serious interethnic conflict. There is some diminution of the increase in diversity in some regions in 1991, possibly because of
refugee flows in anticipation of the impending violence. This rather broad and steady increase in diversity leads to questions about
the view that pre-existing ethnic hatreds among broad segments of the population led to the ethnic fracturing and collapse of
Yugoslavia. Instead it suggests that this fracturing may instead have been the result of competition between political leaders,
stimuulated by serious economic difficulties, leading them to emphasize ethnicity in their search for popular support. From this the
authors support the view that the collapse of Yugoslavia was from the top downward, not from the bottom upward.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2007
godina XLV
Penev, Goran, Biljana Stankovi
SAMOUBISTVA U SRBIJI POETKOM 21. VEKA I KRETANJA U PROTEKLIH PEDESET GODINA
SUICIDES IN SERBIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 21ST CENTURY AND TRENDS
IN THE PAST FIFTY YEARS
25-62
k.r.: samoubistva, stope samoubistava, prevencija samoubistava, Srbija
k.w.: suicides, suicide rates, suicide prevention, Serbia
U Srbiji su 2006. godine 1444 osobe izvrile samoubistvo ili 19,5 na 100.000 stanovnika. U poreenju sa ranim pedesetim godinama
20. veka, broj samoubistava je gotovo udvostruen, ali se u poslednjih 15 godina belei umereno smanjenje. Sline, ali neto
umerenije tendencije se zapaaju i kod promena vrednosti stopa samoubistava. Najnie stope su registrovane tokom 1950-ih, oko 12
na 100.000 stanovnika, a najvie tokom poslednje decenije 20. veka stopa je dostigla nivo od oko 20 samoubistava na 100.000
stanovnika.
Najvie je samoubistava meu starim osobama, a primetna je i tendencija poveanja udela starih u ukupnom broju samoubistava, to
je, pre svega, posledica intenzivnog demografskog starenja. Kod mladih je poslednjih tridesetak godina prisutna tendencija opadanja
kako broja, tako i vrednosti stope samoubistava. Broj mladih uzrasta 15-24 koji su izvrili samoubistvo je u 2006. vie nego
dvostruko manji u odnosu na stanje iz 1971. godine (smanjen sa 150 na 66), a znaajno su nie i vrednosti stopa samoubistava mladih
(sa 11,5 na 6,9 na 100.000). I pored odreenih promena vrednosti specifinih stopa suicidnog mortaliteta koje su ostvarene u
poslednjih pedeset godina, njegov starosni model se moe okarakterisati kao stabilan.
Meu osobama koje izvre samoubistvo dominiraju mukarci, njih je dvostruko vie, a najvia zabeleena godinja vrednost stope
samoubistva ena nikada nije prela vrednost najnie stope samoubistva kod mukaraca. Posmatrano prema branom stanju, opta
stopa samoubistava najvea je kod udovaca, zatim slede razvedeni, lica u braku, a najnie stope su kod celibatera. Kod sve etiri
grupe, stope smrtnosti usled samoubistva su preko 3 puta vee kod mukaraca. Izmeu nivoa obrazovanja i nivoa stope samoubistava
takoe postoji jasna veza, kod oba pola, sa poveanjem kolske spreme rasprostranjenost samoubistava opada.
Prema vrednosti opte stope samoubistava, Srbija se trenutno nalazi u gornjoj polovini evropske rang liste, blie zemljama sa
najveim stopama smrtnosti usled samoubistva nego pre petnaest godina. Rezultati postignuti u drugim zemljama, posebno u nekim
bivim socijalistikim, upuuju da bi definisanje i sprovoenje strategije za prevenciju samoubistva moglo da ima znaajne efekte na
smanjenje suicida i u Srbiji.
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In 2006 in Serbia, 1444 persons committed suicide (19.5 per 100.000 population. Compared to the early 50s of the 20th century, the
number of suicides has nearly doubled, but there has been a moderate decrease in the last 15 years. Similar, but somewhat more
moderate tendencies are noted in the change of the value of the suicide rates. The lowest suicide rates were recorded during the
1950s, around 12 per 100.000, and the highest in the last decade of the 20th century when the rate reached 20 suicides per 100.000
inhabitants.
The highest suicide rate is among the elderly, and there is also a noticable tendency of increase in the share of the elderly in the total
number of suicides, which is primarily the consequence of intense demographic aging. With youth, the last thirty years note a decline
of both the number of suicides and the value of the suicide rates. The number of young people aged 15-24 who have committed
suicide in 2006 is less than half of the number from 1971 (decreased from 150 to 66), and the values of suicide rates are also
significantly low (decreased from 11.5 to 6.9 per 100.000). Despite certain changes in the values of age-specific suicide rates
achieved in the last 50 years, their age patterns of suicide mortality can be characterized as stable.
Men are dominant among persons who have committed suicide, with double the number of women, and the highest recorded value of
the suicide rate of women never surpassed the value of the lowest suicide rate in men. In terms of marital status, the total rate of
suicides is highest with widowers, then divorced persons, married persons, and lowest rates are with celibates. In all four groups,
suicide rates are at least 3 times higher for men. There is also a clear connection between the level of education and suicide rates, for
both sexes, with the suicide rate decreasing with higher educational level.
In terms of total suicide rate, Serbia is currently in the top half of the European list of countries, closer to countries with highest
suicide rates than fifteen years ago. Results achieved in other countries, especially in some former communist countries, imply that
defining and conducting a strategy for suicide prevention could have significant effect on the decrease of suicides in Serbia as well.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2007
godina XLV
Devedi, Mirjana
PRILOG IZUAVANJU UTICAJA TURIZMA NA DEMOGRAFSKI RAZVITAK
SUBJECT OF RESEARCH ON EFFECTS OF TOURISM ON POPULATION DEVELOPMENT
63-79
k.r.: depopulacija, razvoj turizma, dinamika stanovnitva, migracije, strukture stanovnitva
k.w.: depopulation, tourism development, population dynamics, migrations, population structures
Znaaj koji je razvoj turizma imao za privredni i demografski oporavak pojedinih podruja, stvorio mu je imid razvojnog
katalizatora. Stoga se esto u strategijama revitalizacije depopulacionih i pasivnih krajeva, turizam navodi kao delatnost koja e
pospeiti razvoj, uspeno valorizovati postojee prirodne, kulturne i demografske potencijale. Ovakav "klju" je uglavnom prisutan u
odsustvu drugih razvojnih resursa, jer turizam vrednuje ono to je za druge privredne grane nebitno (pejsane karakteristike, etno
naslee, autentinost narodnog graditeljstva, itd.). Pri tom se tee procenjuje kakve oblike turizma treba razvijati u depopulacionim
krajevima i kakve privredne i demografske efekte treba oekivati. Pored uspenih primera, postoje i oni koje govore o neracionalnim
inicijativama i nikad zavrenim projektima.
U ovom radu se kroz nekoliko bitnih elemenata demografskog razvitka pokuava otkriti koje su njegove najloginije sprege sa
razvojem turizma. Tako su izdvojeni: ukupna dinamika stanovnitva, migracije stanovnitva, strukture stanovnitva i promene u
domainstvima, jer se u njima najbolje oslikavaju direktna, ali i posredna multiplikativna dejstva turizma. Istraivanje je osim
teorijskometodoloke osnove, potkrepljeno odabranim primerima, zasnovano na rezultatima intervjua i demografske analize.
Efekti nisu univerzalni i zavise od podruja gde se razvijaju, vrste i stepena razvijenosti turizma, zateenog demografskog stanja, kao
i nivoa istraivanja, jer globalni i lokalni efekti ne moraju biti jednosmerni. Porast stanovnitva izazvan razvojem turizma se
ostvaruje zahvaljujui migratornoj komponenti, ali su efekti najoigledniji na nivou turistikih regija i turistikih centara unutar njih,
dok se u pojedinim mestima sa turistikom funkcijom moe zapaziti i suprotan proces. Stepen razvijenosti turizma i stav drutva
prema razvoju turizma odreuju oseaj perspektivnosti koji je okosnica u motivaciji za preseljenje. Najneposredniji efekti se ogledaju
u granskom prestrukturiranju aktivnog stanovnitva i dominaciji tercijarnih delatnosti. Poveava se aktivnost enskog stanovnitva,
kao i njihovo angaovanje u okviru domainstava, u kojima se sublimiraju najraznovrsnija dejstva faktorskog delovanja turizma.
Ovakvi efekti nisu mogui kada je u pitanju "turizam malih dimenzija" koji je najadekvatniji depopulacionim krajevima. Oni se
najvie ogledaju u jaanju ekonomskih i socijalnih funkcija domainstava i ojaavanju lokalne privrede i domae radinosti, to moe
dovesti do smanjivanja depopulacije.
The importance of tourism in the context of economic and demographic recovery of certain regions has created an image of tourism
as a development catalyst. Thus strategies of revitalization in depopulated and passive regions often consider tourism as an activity
that can speed up the development and successfully valorize existing natural, cultural and demographic potentials. This "key" is used
mainly in the absence of other development resources, since tourism valorizes issues that other industries ignore (landscape features,
ethnical heritage, authentic folk architecture, etc.). In addition, it is more difficult to recommend the right forms of tourism to be
developed in depopulated regions, as well as to estimate the resulting economic and demographic effects. To this end, there are
success stories, but there is also evidence of non-rational initiatives and projects that were never completed.
This paper attempts to discover the most logical links between population development and tourism development, based on some
important characteristics of population development. The characteristics used are: overall population increase, population migrations,
population structures, and changes in households. They were selected because they best reflect not only direct, but also indirect
multiplicative effects of tourism. Along with the theoretical and methodological background, the research is also supported by
selected examples, interviews, and demographic analyzes.
The effects are not universal. They depend on the region, the kind of tourism and the degree of its development, the demographic
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situation as it is, and the research approach, since global and local effects need not necessarily be unidirectional. Population increase
initiated by tourism development is achieved due to the migration component, but the effects are most obvious at the level of tourist
regions and their tourist centers. One can also note counter processes in some places that have tourist function. The level of tourism
development and social attitudes to tourism development determine the sense of perspective that makes people to move. The most
direct effects are reflected in the restructuring of active population w.r.t. the existing industries and the domination of tertiary
activities. The activity of women is increased, as well as their responsibilities in households. The most diverse effects of tourism
factors are sublimed in households.
Such effects are not possible with small-scale tourism that is the most appropriate one in depopulated regions. The effects are best
reflected in strengthening of economic and social functions of households and in the increase of local industries and crafts, which can
lead to population decrease.
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 2/2007
godina XLV
Nikitovi, Vladimir
PATRICK BUCHANAN: THE DEATH OF THE WEST HOW DYING POPULATIONS AND IMMIGRANT
INVASIONS IMPERIL OUR COUNTRY AND CIVILIZATION
81-110
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2008
godina XLVI
Parant, Alain
STANOVNITVO I POPULACIONA POLITIKA: FRANCUSKI MODEL
POPULATION AND POPULATION POLICY: FRANCH MODEL
7-39
K.. nizak fertilitet, demografsko starenje, populacione politike, Francuska
K.w.: low fertility, demographic ageing, population policy, France
Generacije koje se danas raaju su, ili bar tee da budu, svuda u svetu malobrojnije nego nekada. To smanjenje broja dece pogaa
moderna drutva u mnogim oblastima. Ako je ono uokvireno efikasnim politikama podrke, moe da bude izvor opteg poboljanja
uslova ivota. Ali, ako se ta pojava produi ili ako postane drastina, na kraju e dovesti do breg ili sporijeg demografskog starenja,
koje sa svoje strane moe dovesti u pitanje mnoge drutvene tekovine. Javna intervencija, mora u tom sluaju da zadre mnogo dublje,
a sve bez garancija za potpuni, ako ne trajni uspeh.
Uvodni deo lanka je posveen konceptu "demografske revolucije", koji je 1934. godine razvio francuski politiar i demograf
Adolphe Landry da bi oznaio nastajanje jednog demografskog reima koji se odlikuje opteprihvaenom praksom ograniavanja
raanja, to predstavlja odgovor zbog sutinske brige za poboljanje ivotnog standarda, kako roditelja tako i njihove dece. Ali je
zato, ograniavanje raanja primarni uzrok starenja ukupnog populacije.
U nastavku su predstavljene neke najupeatljivije crte aktulene francuske demografske situacije, kao njenog budueg razvitka.
Francuska ima pozitivan bilans razmene stanovnitva sa ostatkom sveta, kao i veina zapadno-evropskih zemalja, ali ipak najvei deo
svog demografskog rasta crpe iz veeg broja roenih od broja umrlih. Zbog toga se ona najee doivljava kao pravi demografski
raj u Evropi, ije se stanovnitvo smanjuje i stari. Slika je svakako laskava, ali postaje vrlo kontradiktorna nakon analiza dugoronih
kretanja pokazatelja fertiliteta i starenja stanovnitva.
U treem delu lanka, ija je ia interesovanja situacija u Francuskoj, ispituju se modaliteti i ogranienja aktivnosti koje jedno
drutvo, suoeno sa demografskim starenjem i smanjenjem broja dece, moe da primeni: politike ili mere prostog "prilagoavanja u
hodu" demografskim procesima; politike i mere koje su mnogo vie intervencionistike ak i u sasvim privatnoj sferi raanja, a
usmerene su ne ka preokretu snano izraenih tendencija starenja stanovnitva, ve na ograniavanje nekih veoma nepoeljnih
efekata.
Generations born today, or at least are trying to be, are scarcer than before all over the world. This decrease in the number of children
is affecting modern societies in many spheres. If it was to be supported by efficient policies, it could be the source of a general
improvement of life conditions. However, if this phenomenon continues or becomes drastic, it could ultimately lead to slower or
faster demographic ageing, which could endanger many social heritages. Public intervention must, in that case, impinge much
deeper, but without guarantees for a complete, if not permanent, success.
The introductory part of the article is dedicated to the concept "demographic revolution" which was developed in 1934 by the French
politician and demographer Adolphe Landry, in order to mark the development of a demographic regime which is characterized by a
universally accepted practice of birth control, which represents a response for the essential concern for life standard improvement,
not only for the parents but their children as well. But then, birth control is the primary cause of population ageing.
The article further presents some of the most striking traits of the current French demographic situation, as its future development.
France has a positive balance of population exchange with the remaining part of the world, as most of the Western European
countries, but still the greatest part of its demographic increase is obtained from a larger number of births than deaths. Because of
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this, France is often seen as a real demographic paradise in Europe, whose population is decreasing and ageing. This image is
certainly flattering, but it is becoming very contradictory after an analysis of long-term trends of fertility indicators and population
ageing.
The third part of the article, with the situation in France in focus, investigates the modalities and limitations of activities which a
society, faced with demographic ageing and decreasing number of children, can apply: policies or simple "adjusting along the way"
to demographic processes measures; policies and measures which are more intervening even in the completely private sphere of
birth-giving, and directed towards the limitation of some very unfavorable effects and not towards the change of strongly expressed
tendencies of population ageing.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2008
godina XLVI
orevi, Ljiljana
PROMENE U PROSENOJ VELIINI DOMAINSTVA U SRBIJI U DRUGOJ POLOVINI 20. VEKA
CHANGES IN HOUSEHOLD AVERAGE SIZE IN SERBIA IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURY
41-69
K.. domainstvo, prosena veliina domainstva, regionalne razlike, Srbija, Evropa
K.w.: household, average size of household, regional differences, Serbia, Europe
Srbija je u proteklih pola veka doivela niz radikalnih promena na svim poljima drutvenog ivota. Smenjivali su se periodi uspona s
periodima velikih ekonomskih, politikih i socijalnih kriza. Sva ta istorijska previranja prelamala su se kroz prizmu svakodnevice
naih domainstava koja su, takoe, imala svoje uspone i padove. Pod uticajem mnogobrojnih modernizacijskih, ali i destabiliuih
faktora u posmatranom vremenskom periodu, domainstva su postepeno menjala svoj sastav i popula-cionu veliinu. Promene se,
meutim, nisu podjednako odvijale na itavoj teritoriji Srbije. Neujednaen tempo drutveno-ekonomskog razvoja, razliita kulturnoistorijska prolost, kao i brzina demografske tranzicije, uticali su na formiranje velikih regionalnih razlika u prosenoj veliini
domainstava u Srbiji. Proseno domainstvo u centralnoj Srbiji i Vojvodini slino je po svojoj populacionoj veliini prosenom
evropskom domainstvu (oko 3 lana), dok su domainstva Kosova i Metohije, sa preko est lanova u proseku, daleko najvea u
Evropi.
In the last 50 years Serbia has experienced a number of great changes in all fields of social life. Periods of development and periods
of great economical, political and social crisis interchanged. All those changes affected everyday life of our households which also
had their own ups and downs. Under the influence of numerous improving, but also destabilizing factors, households have gradually
changed their structure and population dimension in above mentioned time period. However, changes did not have equal effect in all
regions of Serbia. Uneven tempo of social-economic development, diverse cultural and historical past, as well as demographic
transition rate, affected great regional differences in average size of Serbian households. Average size of household in Central Serbia
and Vojvodina, according to population dimension, resemble to average European household (about 3 members). On the other hand,
households at Kosovo and Metohija, with over then six members average, are the largest in Europe.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2008
godina XLVI
Bokovi, Aleksandar
ESCAPE FROM POVERTY: OBSTACLES PREVENTING NGOS FROM BECOMING FULLY FLEDGED
SERVICE PROVIDERS IN THE AREA OF SOCIAL PROTECTION IN SERBIA
BEKSTVO OD SIROMATVA: PREPREKE KOJE SPREAVAJU NVO DA POSTANU POTPUNO RAZVIJENI
PRUAOCI USLUGA U OBLASTI SOCIJALNE ZATITE U SRBIJI
71-87
K.. socijalna zatita; NVO-i, pruanje usluga, ranjive populacije, Srbija
K.w.: social services, social care, NGOs, service provision, vulnerable population, Serbia
The paper deals with possible solutions of problems affecting particularly vulnerable parts of the population the elderly, poor, and
refugees, among others. In order to fully realize the potential for providing services for the unprivileged, it is necessary to establish
full cooperation between civil sector and non-governmental organizations, and government agencies. The paper covers some issues
that explain lack of cooperation between these sectors and offers some recommendations for the immediate future.
Rad se bavi problemima koji pogaaju posebno ranjive segmente stanovnitva, kao to su starije osobe, siromani, ili izbeglice. Da bi
se u potpnosti iskoristile mogunosti za pruanje adekvatne socijalne zatite onima kojima je to potrebno, neophodno je uspostaviti
punu saradnju izmeu nevladinih organizacija i dravnih institucija. U tekstu se pominju neki problemi koji spreavaju potpuniju
saradnju izmeu organizacija iz dravnog i nevladinog sektora, a pruaju se i odreene preporuke za poboljavanje ove saradnje u
budunosti.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1/2008
godina XLVI
Raevi, Mirjana
"MOE LI POPULACIONA POLITIKA DA POVEA FERTILITET U EVROPI?" BE, 6-7. DECEMBAR, 2007.
89-94
asopis Stanovnitvo
bibliografija
broj 1/2008
godina XLVI
Zeli, Marina
BIBLIOGRAFIJA LANAKA OBJAVLJENIH U ASOPISU STANOVNITVO 1963-2007: I DEO, 1963-1977.
95-117
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2008
godina XLVI
Raevi, Mirjana
DA LI JE EVIDENTIRANI BROJ ABORTUSA U SRBIJI REALAN?
7-21
K..: namerni prekid trudnoe, podregistracija abortusa, Srbija
K.w.: induced abortions, subregistration of abortions, Serbia
Od 1990-ih iz godine u godinu se registruje sve manji broj abortusa u Srbiji. Da li su abortusni podaci Zavoda za zatitu zdravlja
potpuni? Ili drugim reima, da li se poslednje dve decenije odigrava kvalitativan pomak u sferi reproduktivnog ponaanja stanovnitva
Srbije? U ovom radu odgovor na postavljeno pitanje je traen na tri naina. Prvo, na indirektni nain putem razmatranja da li je
mogua radikalna promena u sferi kontrole raanja od 1990-ih godina, imajui u vidu svu sloenost abortusnog pitanja u Srbiji, kao i
iri drutveni kontekst vezan za poslednju deceniju prolog i poetak ovoga veka. U ovome prilogu se kvalitet zvaninih podataka o
abortusima razmatra i na drugi, direktan nain. Naime, veliki pad indukovanih abortusa, teorijski posmatrano, moe da bude
posledica rasta nivoa raanja dece ili, pak, ubrzanja tranzicije kontrole raanja od upotrebe tradicionalne i neefikasne kontracepcije
ka korienju modernih i efikasnih metoda i sredstava u prevenciji zaea. Otuda se analizira kretanje fertiliteta stanovnitva, sa
posebnim osvrtom na vremenski period od 1990-ih godina do danas i rezultati dostupnih anketnih istraivanja o strukturi upotrebe
kontracepcije u cilju utvrdjivanja da li postoje objektivne pretpostavke za smanjivanje broja namernih prekida trudnoe ili ne.
Odgovor na pitanje postavljeno u naslovu se pokuao dobiti i, na trei nain, procenjivanjem rasprostranjenosti namernih prekida
trudnoe. U tom smislu konsultovana je relevantna literatura i odabran Vestofov metod za izraunavanje stope ukupnih abortusa u
Srbiji (van podruja Kosova i Metohije) u 2006. godini.
Posle sagledavanja izabranog zadatka iz sva tri ugla, ini se da nema dileme da oficijelni podaci o broju abortusa u Srbiji nisu realni.
Namee se da je osnovni razlog nepotpunih zvaninih podataka o abortusima to to oni u najveem broju sluajeva ne ukljuuju
namerne prekide trudnoe koji se izvre u privatnim zdravstvenim ustanovama. Takoe, medicinska sestra odnosno lekar esto
popunjavanje propisanog obrasca za prijavu fetalne smrti doivljavaju kao nepotrebnu, nametnutu, dodatnu obavezu, ne oseajui smisao i
ne shvatajui znaaj podatka kao takvog.
Abortusni problem u Srbiji je ozbiljan, kompleksan i zahteva reavanje. To pretpostavlja sprovoenje vie pravaca mera, ukljuujui
i reavanje pitanja registrovanja namernih prekida trudnoe. Utvrivanje realnog broja abortusa u jednoj sredini je bitno, jer se na taj
nain skree panja na ovaj zdravstveni i drutveni problem i omoguava evaluacija akcija koje se preduzimaju za njegovo
ublaavanje. Ostaje da drava problemu abortusa u Srbiji posveti dunu panju i stavi pod kontrolu privatne zdravstvene ustanove u
kojima ginekolozi vre abortuse, kao i da promovie ulogu i znaaj statistike meu zdravstvenim radnicima.
Ever since the 1990s the number of registered abortions in Serbia has been decreasing from year to year. Are the abortion data of the
Public Health Institute complete? In other words, has there been a qualitative shift in the sphere of reproductive behavior of Serbias
population in the last two decades? This paper deals with the raised question in three ways. First, in an indirect way, by analyzing
whether a radical change in birth control since the 1990s has been possible, having in mind the complexity of the abortion issue in
Serbia, as well as the broad social context regarding the last decade of the last century and beginning of this one. The second way
deals more directly with the quality of the official data on abortions. Namely, the great decrease in the number of induced abortions,
theoretically observed, may be a consequence of the increased level of births, or possibly acceleration in the birth control transition
from the use of traditional and inefficient contraception to the usage of modern and efficient methods and means for conception
control. For this reason, population fertility trends were analyzed, with a special review on the time period from the 1990s till
present day and the results of the available surveyed researches on the structure of contraception usage in order to determine whether
objective assumptions exist for the decrease in the number of induced abortions or not. The third way to reach an answer to the raised
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question in the title was attempted by estimating the scope of induced abortions. In that sense, relevant literature was consulted and
the Westoff method chosen for calculating the rate of total abortions in Serbia (excluding Kosovo and Metohia) in the year 2006.
After examining the set task from all three sides, there seemed to be no doubt that the official data on the number of abortions in
Serbia are not realistic. The basic reason for incomplete official data on abortions seems to be the fact that in most cases induced
abortions performed in private health clinics are not included. Moreover, nurses, namely doctors often experience the filling out of
prescribed forms for registration of foetal death as unnecessary, imposed, an additional obligation, without sensing the meaning and
not understanding the significance of data as such.
The abortion problem in Serbia is serious, complex and demands solving. This assumes the carrying out of many measures, including
solving the matter of induced abortions registration. Determination of the realistic number of abortions in a community is very
important, because in that way attention is drawn to this health and social problem and enables evaluation of actions to be taken for
its alleviation. It remains that the state is to pay due attention to the problem of abortions in Serbia and to put private health clinics in
which gynecologists perform abortions under control, as well as to promote the role and significance of statistics among health
workers.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2008
godina XLVI
Berber, Maja, Boo Grbi, Slavica Pavkov
PROMENE UDELA STANOVNITVA HRVATSKE I SRPSKE NACIONALNE PRIPADNOSTI U HRVATSKOJ
PO GRADOVIMA I OPTINAMA NA OSNOVU REZULTATA POPISA IZ 1991. I 2001. GODINE
CHANGES IN THE SHARE OF ETHNIC CROATS AND SERBS IN CROATIA BY TOWN AND MUNICIPALITY
BASED ON THE RESULTS OF CENSUSES FROM 1991 AND 2001
23-62
K..: Hrvatska, popis stanovnitva, nacionalna pripadnost, kretanje stanovnitva, Srbi, Hrvati.
K.w.: Croatia, population census, ethnic affiliation, population dynamics, ethnic Serbs, ethnic Croats.
U radu je dat prikaz promena udela stanovnitva hrvatske i srpske nacionalne pripadnosti na podruju Hrvatske na osnovu rezultata
popisa iz 1991. i 2001. godine. U poslednjem meupopisnom razdoblju (1991-2001) je dolo do promena definicija stalnog
stanovnitva, zatim do promena u administrativno-teritorijalnoj podeli Hrvatske kao i do ratnih zbivanja (1991-1995), to je bitno
uticalo na demografsku sliku zemlje, ali i otealo analizu kretanja broja stanovnika te dve najbrojnije etnike grupe, posebno na
niem teritorijalnom nivou. Tim vie to je obeleje "nacionalna pripadnost" izrazito nestabilno i nepredvidivo i podlono je kako
subjektivnim tako i spoljnim uticajima.
Uspostavivi vezu izmeu starih (1991) i novih (2001) naziva naselja, autori prikazuju promene udela stanovnitva hrvatske i srpske
nacionalnosti po gradovima odnosno optinama Hrvatske u posmatranom meupopisnom razdoblju. Demografska kao i etnika slika
Hrvatske pretrpela je znaajne promene od 1991. do 2001. godine. Obim ukupnog stanovnitva kao i broj stanovnika srpske
narodnosti smanjen je u tom periodu, za razliku od broja stanovnika hrvatske narodnosti koji belei porast. Budui da je Hrvatska u
tom razdoblju imala negativan prirodni prirataj, poveanje broja Hrvata se objanjava uticajem migracija kao i promenama u
izjanjavanju o nacionalnoj pripadnosti. Udeo stanovnitva srpske nacionalnosti smanjio se sa 12,2% (1991) na 4,5% (2001) dok je
prostorna distribucija Srba u 2001. godini ostala gotovo jednaka onoj iz 1991. godine.
This article shows the changes in the populations of Croatian and Serbian ethnic affiliation in Croatia based on population censuses
of 1991 and 2001. In the last intercensal period (1991-2001), methodological definitions of resident population changed significantly,
Croatia's administrative-territorial borders changed and a war occurred (1991-1995), all of which influenced the demographical
situation of Croatia. It is of special importance that the term "ethnic affiliation" is significantly unstable and unpredictable and highly
influenced by both subjective and external influences, which make its analysis even more difficult.
By establishing a connection between the old (1991) and the new (2001) names of settlements, the authors demonstrated the changes
in the share of ethnic Croats and Serbs in the total population of towns and municipalities in Croatia in the observed intercensal
period. Both the demographic and the ethnic profile of Croatia changed in the period of 1991-2001. The total population of Croatia,
as well as the population of ethnic Serbs, decreased in this period, while the population of ethnic Croats increased. Since Croatia had
a negative natural increase in the observed period, this increase is attributed to migrations and changes in declarations of ethnic
affiliation. While the share of ethnic Serbs decreased significantly (from 12,2% in 1991 to 4,5% in 2001), their territorial distribution
remained practically the same.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2008
godina XLVI
Savi, Mirko
POTENCIJALNI PRAVCI MIGRACIJA TIPA GRAD-GRAD U VOJVODINI
POTENTIAL DIRECTIONS OF THE "TOWN-TO-TOWN" MIGRATION IN VOJVODINA
63-80
K..: demografska tranzicija, unutranja migracija, urbani razvoj, multivarijantna analiza, Vojvodina
K.w.: demographic transition, internal migration, urban development, multivariate analysis, Vojvodina
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Za stanovnitvo Vojvodine se moe rei da pokazuje karakteristike podetape kasne demografske tranzicije koju odlikuje stagnacija
mortaliteta na niskom nivou, lagani pad stope nataliteta, rast broja starijih osoba itd. Za ovu podetapu vezana je i etvrta razvojna
faza migracionih kretanja u kojoj dolazi do izraenih migracija iz jednog grada u drugi i unutar podruja istog grada. Cilj ovog rada
je da utvrdi osnovne karakteristike potencijalnih migracionih kretanja stanovnitva Vojvodine ka velikim gradovima u regionu, pre
svega prema Novom Sadu kao ekonomskom, politikom i kulturnom centru. Formiran je uzorak od 2.000 ispitanika sa teritorije
Vojvodine i sprovedena je anketa u 15 najveih gradova regiona. Podaci su obraeni primenom metoda deskriptivne, inferencijalne i
multivarijantne statistike analize (korelacija ranga i MDS analiza). Osnovni zakljuci do kojih se dolo su: da se u Vojvodini
potvruju teorijske postavke teorije tranzicione migracije, da veliina grada nije jedini opredeljujui faktor za preferencije
potencijalni migranata i da je Novi Sad daleko najpoeljnija destinacija ka kojoj tei oko 40% stanovnitva u regionu starosti izmeu
20 i 40 godina, to e u narednoj dekadi predstavljati velike urbane, ekonomske i socijalne probleme, kako za Novi Sad, tako i za
sredine iz kojih imigranti budu dolazili.
Population of Vojvodina is showing the characteristics of late demographic transition. The main characteristics of that phase are low
mortality rate, slow decrease of fertility rate, increased number of older people etc. This phase is connected to fourth development
phase of migrations with significant migrations from one city to another and inside the city area. The purpose of this paper is to
define the basic characteristics of potential internal migrations in the region of Vojvodina between cities, most of all towards Novi
Sad as economic, political and cultural centre. The sample of 2.000 respondents was formed and survey was conducted in the 15
largest cities in the region. The data were analyzed with methods of descriptive and multivariate statistical analysis (rank correlation
and MDS analysis). Basic conclusions are that theory of transitional migration is confirmed in Vojvodina, the size of the city is not
the only factor for potential migration movements and Novi Sad is by far the most desired destination for significant portion of
population in the region, especially of population aged between 20 and 40 years because around 40% of that cohort wish to move to
Novi Sad. That will cause significant urban, economic and social problems, not only in the city of Novi Sad but also in the cities
where immigrants are coming from.
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/2008
godina XLVI
Predojevi-Despi, Jelena
SIGRID METZ-GCKEL, SENGANATA MNST, MIRJANA MOROKVAI (EDS.) "MIGRATION AND
MOBILITY IN AN ENLARGED EUROPE A GENDER PERSPECTIVE"
81-85
asopis Stanovnitvo
bibliografija
broj 2/2008
godina XLVI
Zeli, Marina
BIBLIOGRAFIJA LANAKA OBJAVLJENIH U ASOPISU STANOVNITVO 1963-2007: II DEO, 1978-2007.
87-112
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2009
godina XLVII
Ignjatovi, Suzana
AKTUELNI PROBLEMI U ISTRAIVANJU TRANZICIJE U ODRASLOST SA OSVRTOM NA SRBIJU
RECENT PROBLEMS IN RESEARCH ON TRANSITION TO ADULTHOOD: COUNTRY FOCUS SERBIA
7-22
K.r.: ivotni tok, tranzicija u odraslost
K.w.: life course, transition to adulthood
U radu se razmatraju teorijske i metodoloke dimenzije koncepta tranzicije u odraslost u okviru paradigme ivotnog toka. Posebno se
analiziraju specifinosti tranzicije u odraslost u Srbiji. Tranzicija u odraslost se posmatra kao skup ivotnih dogaaja koji oznaavaju
prelaz u odraslost: porodina, profesionalna, materijalna i stambena tranzicija. Empirijsku osnovu rada ine rezultati istraivanja iz
2003. godine koje je sprovedeno na nekoliko starosnih grupa od 17 do 35 godina. Posebno je izdvojena generacija 34-35 koja je
pogodna za analizu zbog zavrenog tranzicijskog procesa.
The paper explores theoretical and methodological aspects of transition to adulthood. The concept is discussed within the framework
of life course paradigm. The concept of transition to adulthood is operationalized as four dimensions: family transition, professional
(career) transition, financial status transition and housing transition. We discuss in detail the process of becoming an adult in Serbian
society. The thesis of specific type of transition to adulthood, named prolonged adolescence, has been fully examined. The analysis is
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based on data collected in a survey (2003) of young people aged 17-35. In the paper we focus on the subsample of respondents aged
34-35 being a post-transitional cohort. The 34-35 cohort trajectory to adulthood is explored as an indicator of general trend in
transition to adulthood in a period of radical social turmoil.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2009
godina XLVII
Mrevi, Zorica
ISTOPOLNE ZAJEDNICE I DECA
SAME SEX FAMILIES AND CHILDREN
23-48
K.r.: istopolne zajednice, deca, roditeljstvo, nizak natalitet, porodino pravo
K.w.: same sex families, children, parenthood, low natality, family law
Poetna izlaganja sadre podatke o dva glavna pravna oblika regulisanja istopolnih zajednica, graanske zajednice ili patnerstva i
istopoljnog braka, gde se navode zemlje i razni modaliteti pravnog regulisanja ovih statusa. Glavni deo teksta je posveen
prezentiranju rezultata nedavnih istraivanja o raznim aspektima dece istopolnih zajednica. On sadri izlaganja grupisana u etiri
osnovna poglavlja: prihvaenost istopolnih zajednica, prihvaenost zakonskog priznavanja istopolnih zajednica, porodini planovi
istopolno orijentisane omladine, kao i odgajanje dece u istopolnim zajednicama. Rad sadri i konkretne sluajeve gde se pravna
regulativa i drutvene promene prelamaju kroz prizmu pravnih promena npr. u predstavljanju irskog puta u legalizaciju istopolnih
zajednica. Navedena je i konkretna pria dveju ena krunisana raanjem njihovo etvoro dece. Razloge protiv i negativne reakcije
autorka navodi u odeljku pod naslovom Homofobija. U Zakljunim napomenama autorka navodi primere nedavnih pravnih promena
kao to je primer Norveke, Ekvadora i amerikih drava Kalifornije i Konektiketa. Navodi se takoe da su u evropskim zemljama
niskog nataliteta istopolne zajednice uoene kao jo jedan demografski vredan potencijal za stvaranje i podizanje potomstva koji
zavreuje da bude podran, a ne bezrazlono osujeivan ili diskriminisan.
Iako odudaraju od modela heteroseksualne porodine zajednice, istopolna partnerstva nisu pogubna za tradicionalne porodine
vrednosti niti su odraz promiskuitetnog, antisocijalnog ponaanja, izbegavanja roditeljstva, a jo manje negiranja postojanja porodice.
One su upravo suprotno, odraz nastojanja istopolno orijentisanih osoba da ne budu lieni porodice, roditeljstva i svega onoga to
znai stabilna, monogamna, emotivna/seksualna, drutveno i pravno regulisana konvencionalna zajednica.
Introduction comprises the information on two main forms of same sex families, civic partnership (same sex partnership) and same
sex marriage. Countries and various status modalities of legal regulations are mentioned. The main part of the text is dedicated to
presentation of the findings of the most recent research on various aspects regarding children of same sex partnerships. It comprises
presentations grouped in four main chapters: acceptance of same sex partnerships, acceptance of legal recognition of the same sex
partnerships, family plans of homosexual teenagers, and raising children within and by the same sex partners. Also the real life cases
mirroring legal changes through their life destinies are presented, such is e.g. the Irish way to legalization of the same sex
partnerships. In addition, a love story of two women crowned by giving birth of their four children is mentioned. Reasons against and
negative reactions the author puts under the title Homophobia. In the Concluding remarks, the author presents the most recent
examples of legal changes happened in Norway, Ecuador, and in the American states of California and Connecticut. It was also
stated that in European countries of low birth rate, the same sex families are inevitably identified as one of demographically valuable
source of creating and raising children, which is worthy to be supported, rather than being hindered without reason and discriminated.
Although different than a model of heterosexual family, same sex partnerships neither are harrowing to traditional family values, nor
reflex of any kind of promiscuous, antisocial behavior, avoidance of parenthood, and negation of family. Quite opposite, these
families are an outcome of endeavors of homosexuals not to be deprived of family, parenthood and all of other values of stabile,
monogamous, emotional/sexual socially accepted and legally recognized and regulated conventional family.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2009
godina XLVII
Mujovi-Zorni, Hajrija
REPRODUKTIVNA PRAVA: AKTUELNA PITANJA KASNOG POBAAJA
REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS: CURRENT ISSUES OF LATE ABORTION
49-68
K.r.: kasni pobaaj, reproduktivna prava, fetus, pravna regulativa
K.w.: late abortion, reproductive rights, foetus, legal regulation
Ovaj lanak se tie pravnih problema koji prate preduzimanje indikovanog kasnog pobaaja u situacijama kad ozbiljni medicinski,
terapijski ili etiki razlozi govore u prilog tome. Generalno, danas u pravnim raspravama ne dominira vie pitanje legalnosti
(zakonitosti) pobaaja, jer sve manje je ilegalnih pobaaja, ve glavno postaje pitanje sigurnosti pobaaja. Sa aspekta zdravlja trudne
ene najvaniji su savesnost i stunost lekarskog postupanja i otklanjanje moguih rizika koji prate samu intervenciju kasnog
pobaaja. Sva ova razmatranja pored medicinsko-pravnog konteksta i reproduktivnog zdravlja otvaraju i pitanja potovanja
reproduktivnih prava ene putem odgovarajue regulative i pravne prakse. Ginekolog ima obavezu da pribavi saglasnost informisane
pacijentkinje. Informacije treba da budu saoptene razumljivim reima i da ukljue alternativni medicinski tretman, ciljeve, rizike,
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koristi, mogue komplikacije i pretpostavljene rezultate takvog tretmana. Trudnica takoe treba da proe kroz podrku savetovanja
pre i naroito posle procedure. Za sve prekide kod kasnog pobaaja vano je da izabrani metod treba da osigura da doe do
usmrenja fetusa, a tako sloen zahtev treba da obavi lekar posebno specijalizovan za takve pobaaje.
Reformisanje prava o pobaaju ini ga pravno dostupnim eni, to nije nuno proizvod uvaavanja eninih prava, nego moe znaiti
dovoenje prakse pobaaja pod bolju zdravstvenu negu i kontrolu. Savetovanje trudnice i dobra medicinska praksa u sprovoenju
kasnog pobaaja su instrumenti koji dalje dovode do cilja. To ne slabi odluku ene koja gleda pozitivno na svoj ivot, niti kod nje
stvara oseaj nesigurnosti i krivice. Zakljuuje se da su postojei pravni propisi uglavnom zaokrueni i ne trebaju biti menjani, ali da
trebaju da budu jasnije odvojena i uobliena pravila o kasnom pobaaju. U Srbiji se upuuje na potrebu potpunije izrade seta vodia
radi dovoenja u sklad medicinske opravdanosti kasnog pobaaja sa vaeim propisima, naroito noveliranje vaeeg zakona nekim
reenjima na koja upuuje uporedno pravo.
This article considers the legal issues surrounding induced late abortion in cases when severe medical, therapeutic or ethical reasons
have not been in dispute. Generally discussing the essential question about abortion today, it means not anymore legality of abortion
but, in the first place, safety of abortion. From the aspect of woman health the most important aim is to detect and avoid possible
risks of medical intervention, such as late abortion present. This is the matter of medical law context and also the matter of the
womans reproductive rights, here observed through legislation and court practice. The gynecologist has an obligation to obtain the
informed consent of each patient. Informations should be presented in reasonably understandable terms and include alternative
modes of treatment, objectives, risks, benefits, possible complications, and anticipated results of such treatment. Pregnant woman
should receive supportive counseling before and particularly after the procedure. The method chosen for all terminations should
ensure that the fetus is born dead. This should be undertaken by an appropriately trained practitioner.
Reform in abortion law, making it legally accessible to woman, is not necessarily the product of a belief in womans rights, but can
be a means of bringing the practice of abortion back under better control. Counseling and good medical practice in performing late
abortion are the instruments to drive this point even further home. It does not undermine the woman who wants to make a positive
decision about her life and its purpose is not to produce feelings of insecurity and guilt. It concludes that existing law should not be
changed but that clear rules should be devised and board created to review late term abortion. In Serbia, this leads to creation and set
up guidelines for reconciling medical justification for late abortion with existing law, especially with solutions which brings
comparative law.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2009
godina XLVII
Matkovi, Gordana
DNEVNI BORAVAK KAO PRAVO I USLUGA U SISTEMU SOCIJALNE ZATITE
DAYCARE AS AN ENTITLEMENT AND AS A SERVICE IN THE SOCIAL WELFARE SYSTEM
69-88
K.r.: dnevni boravak, socijalna zatita, vaninistitucionalne usluge socijalne zatite
K.w.: daycare center, social welfare, non residential social welfare services
U okviru reformskih napora, dalji razvoj i unapreenje usluge dnevnog boravka je vaan preduslov deinstitucionalizacije, koja
predstavlja jedan od kljunih pravaca promena u sistemu socijalne zatite. Smanjenje broja dece i odraslih u institucijama, vraanje iz
institucija u prirodnu porodicu, kao i prevencija institucionalnog zbrinjavanja, pre svega zavise od podrke koju prirodna porodica
moe da ostvari na lokalnom nivou kako bi mogla da brine o svojim najbliim srodnicima.
Danas u Srbiji postoji 49 ustanova za dnevne boravke u kojima je zbrinuto preko 1400 dece i osoba sa invaliditetom. U periodu od
2000. do 2007. godine otvoreno je 37 novih boravaka, ukupan broj korisnika ove usluge se vie nego utrostruio, a ravnopravnu
ulogu u pruanju usluga dobio je i nevladin sektor. Ipak usluga dnevnog zbrinjavanja jo uvek je nedovoljno razvijena, u 123 optine
uopte nije prisutna i u celini je znaajno manje dostupna od rezidencijalnog smetaja. Meu ustanovama su zastupljeni i dobro
etablirani boravci, sa znaajnim kapacitetima, ali i mali, koji funkcioniu na projektnom principu, rade nekoliko sati dnevno i sa
nesigurnim izgledima za budunost. U ovoj drugoj grupi su preteno dnevni boravci organizovani u okviru nevladinog sektora.
Meseni trokovi dnevnog boravka po jednom korisniku u proseku su sredinom 2007. godine iznosili oko 13750 dinara. Prema
nalazima ankete, za funkcionisanje usluge dnevnog boravka za 20 korisnika, na primer, potrebno je godinje izdvojiti izmeu 2 i 6
miliona dinara, u zavisnosti od kompleksnosti programa i usluga koje se pruaju. Izdaci za rezidencijalni smetaj su u proseku vii od
izdataka za zbrinjavanje u dnevnim boravcima.
Dalji razvoj usluge dnevnog boravka u Srbiji zahteva dodatne i fokusirane napore na centralnom nivou u vidu formulisanja posebnih
finansijskih podsticaja nerazvijenim optinama, razvoja strunih kapaciteta na lokalnom nivou, edukacije lokalnih samouprava,
koncipiranja i uspostavljanja regulatornih mehanizama, razmene iskustava dobre prakse... Postavljanje vaninstitucionalnih usluga u
centar sistema socijalne zatite moe se, meutim, oekivati tek sa dubljim zakonskim promenama.
The social welfare reform recognizes the further development and expansion of daycare center services as an important precondition
for deinstitutionalization as one of the key objectives of the reform. Decreasing the number of children and adults in residential
institutions, their return to their natural families and preventing institutionalization depend primarily on the support provided at local
level to the family for taking care of their family members.
Today in Serbia there are 49 daycare centers with 1400 children and persons with disability as beneficiaries. Between 2000 and 2007,
thirty seven new daycare centers were established, the total number of beneficiaries more than tripled and the NGO sector became
equal with the government sector in service provision. Yet, daycare center services are still not sufficiently developed. In 123
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municipalities there are no daycare center services at all and overall these services are significantly less accessible than residential
services. Daycare center services consist of both well established and sustainable daycare with significant capacity and also of small,
project-based daycare centers that provide services for a few hours and have an uncertain future. The second group consists mostly of
daycare centers organized by the NGO sector.
The monthly costs of daycare center services per beneficiary in 2007 amounted to 13.750 dinars on average. According to the survey
findings, for example, the annual costs for running a daycare center service for 20 beneficiaries are between 2 and 6 million dinars
depending on the complexity of the provided services and programs. The costs of residential placement are on average higher than
the costs in daycare centers.
Further development of daycare center services in Serbia requires additional and focused efforts at central level in terms of
formulating special financial incentives for underdeveloped municipalities, developing professional capacity at local level, educating
local governments, conceptualizing and establishing regulatory mechanisms, exchanging good practice examples, etc. Still, placing
non-residential services at the heart of the social welfare system can be expected only after undertaking more profound legislative
changes.
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1/2009
godina XLVII
Nikitovi, Vladimir
DONELLA MEADOWS, JORGEN RANDERS, DENNIS MEADOWS "LIMITS TO GROWTH: THE 30-YEAR
UPDATE"
89-104
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/2009
godina XLVII
Markovi, Milan
GORDANA KOVAEK STANI "LEGISLATIVA O LJUDSKOJ REPRODUKCIJI UZ BIOMEDICINSKU
POMO"
105-111
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 1/2009
godina XLVII
olak, Zdravko
DRAGA BELOPAVLOVI "SMRTNOST ODOJADI I PERINATALNI MORTALITET U VOJVODINI, 1950
2002."
111-114
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2009
godina XLVII
Avramov, Dragana
INTEGRATION OF IMMIGRANTS: A TWO WAY PROCESS
INTEGRACIJA MIGRANATA: DVOSMERNI PROCESS
7-30
K.w.: immigration, population ageing, feminization of migration, integration of immigrants, migration policies
K.r.: : imigracija, starenje stanovnitva, feminizacija migracija, integracija imigranata, migracione politike
This paper builds on the surveys undertaken under the FEMAGE project in eight countries (the Czech Republic, Germany, Estonia,
Hungary, Austria, Poland, Slovenia, and Finland) among natives on attitudes about migration and immigrants, interviews in these
countries with immigrant women about their migration experiences, and policy deliberations among European stakeholders about
policy options for addressing needs for immigrants in ageing societies and needs for their integration in the new home country.
In this paper we have chosen to first address five critical questions:
How native and migrant women see each other?
How is need for migration viewed?
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How is integration perceived?

What are the perceptions and experiences of discrimination?
Emancipation and perceptions of ones own old age, and life satisfaction
Then we identify policy implications of our survey findings. Finally, we discuss policy choices and draw conclusions about needs for
tailoring of integration policies based on the reflexive approach and involvement of the key policy stakeholders active in European
institutions and multipliers such as international NGOs and media.
Rad se zasniva na podacima istraivanja FEMAGE projekta sprovedenog u osam zemalja (eska, Nemaka, Estonija, Maarska,
Austrija, Poljska, Slovenija i Finska) meu autohtonim stanovnicima o stavovima prema migracijama i imigrantima; intervjuima sa
enama imigrantima nastanjenim u tim zemljama o njihovim migracionom iskustvu, i politikim deliberacijama meu kljunim
akterima na evropskom nivou o politikim opcijama u cilju usklaivanja potreba za imigracijom u drutvima ije stanovnistvo stari, i
potrebama migranata da se integriu u novoj domovini.
U ovom radu prvo postavljamo pet kritinih pitanja:
Kako se uzajamno vide autohtoni stanovnici i ene imigranti?
Kako ocenjuju potrebu za imigrantima?
Kako gledaju na integraciju imigranata?
Kako sagledavaju i ocenjuju iskustva diskriminacije?
Kakva je veza izmeu emancipacije i vienja sopstvenog starenja i oseaja zadovoljsva svojim ivotom?
Potom razmatramo politike implikacije kljunih nalaza iz naih istraivanja. Na kraju diskutujemo o politikim opcijama i iznosimo
zakljuke o nainima da se usklade integracione politike. Zakljuci poivaju na refleksivnom metodolokom postupku u koji su
ukljueni kljuni politiki akteri iz evropskih institucija i multiplikatori kao to su meunarodne nevladine organizacije i mediji.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2009
godina XLVII
Nikitovi, Vladimir
SRBIJA KAO IMIGRACIONA ZEMLJA OEKIVANA BUDUNOST?
SERBIA AS IMMIGRATION COUNTRY FORESEEABLE FUTURE?
31-52
K.r.: imigracija, Srbija, populaciono starenje, probabilistika prognoza
K.w.: immigration, Serbia, population ageing, probabilistic forecast
Kroz probabilistiku projekciju stanovnitva ispituje se da li e migracija biti centralno pitanje demografske budunosti Srbije. Stoga
je poseban akcenat stavljen na problem formulisanja hipoteze o spoljnoj migraciji, naroito na ocenu varijabiliteta buduih
migracionih tokova. U tu svrhu koriena su iskustva iz probabilistikih projekcija za drave koje su pretrpele znaajne izmene toka
spoljnih migracija nakon ulaska u EU. Projekcioni rezultati do 2050. godine pokazuju da e se Srbija suoiti sa intenziviranjem
populacionog starenja bez ansi da se taj proces vrati na dananji nivo. S obzirom na aktuelni trend populacionog smanjenja drave,
porast plodnosti je jedan od dva neophodna uslova da se u narednim decenijama povrati dananji broj stanovnika. Drugi je snaan
priliv imigranata, koji je mogu tek uz sutinsku promenu politikih i ekonomskih uslova u zemlji. ak i tada, anse su svega 15% da
e Srbija 2050. imati vie stanovnika nego danas. Meutim, ako bi se u predstojeim dekadama aktuelni emigracioni obrazac spoljnih
migracija preobrazio u imigracioni, projekciona neizvesnost vezana za prognozu indikatora populacionog starenja bila bi znaajno
manja.
The question whether migration will be central demographic issue in the future of Serbia is assessed through probabilistic population
projection. Therefore, the problem on formulating international migration hypothesis, specifically estimation of uncertainty attached
to future migration flow, is highlighted. For that purpose, experiences from probabilistic projections of the countries that undergone
substantial changes of international migration after joined EU were used. Forecast results up to 2050 shows that Serbia will face
significant population ageing with no chances to revert the process during the projection horizon. With respect to decreasing trend of
population size, fertility increase is one of two indispensable conditions if Serbia wants to restore its current size. The other is huge
immigration that could be accomplished if the country experience fundamental political and economic changes in the forthcoming
period. Even then, there is only 15 percent probability that Serbias population size in 2050 will be higher than it is today. However,
if actual emigration pattern of international migration turns into immigration one during the next decades, the uncertainty attached to
forecasted indicators of population ageing would be considerably decreased.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2009
godina XLVII
Raevi, Mirjana
POPULACIONA POLITIKA: STANJE I OEKIVANJA
POPULATION POLICY: STATE AND EXPECTATIONS
53-65
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K.r.: populaciona politika, fertilitet, mortalitet, starenje stanovnitva, migracije, Srbija

K.w.: population policy, fertility, mortality, population ageing, migrations, Serbia
Populaciona politika je potreba i zahtev vremena u kome ivimo. Odgovor Srbije na probleme demografskog razvoja se bazira na
vie usvojenih dokumenata stratekog tipa vezanih za politiku prema fertilitetu stanovnitva, mortalitetu stanovnitva i populacionom
starenju. Njihovo usvajanje, meutim, predstavlja tek prvi korak. ini se dobar prvi korak. U strategijama su prepoznati svi vani
resursi populacione politike. Naveden je niz mera i aktivnosti, mnoge su i razraene. Prihvaen je, preciziran i usaglaen
multisektorski pristup u njihovoj realizaciji. No, ostvarivanje oekivanih rezultata e umnogome zavisiti od operacionalizacije
predloenih mera i aktivnosti i naravno njihovog sprovoenja. Nasuprot, u stratekom dokumentu koji je drava usvojila prema
migracijama, nije ni pokuano da se nau reenja vezana za potpuniji politiki odgovor prema unutranjim i spoljnim migracijama.
Najmanje to je potrebno jeste sprovoditi mere i aktivnosti u cilju ublaavanja problema koji izviru iz poremeaja prostornog
populacionog razmetaja i odliva stanovnitva. Treba posebno podvui da je vremenski inilac u populacionoj politici izuzetno bitan
jer, s jedne strane, postizanje pozitivnih efekata i ublaavanje demografskih poremeaja izuskuje vreme, a s druge strane, svako
odlaganje promena pogorava demografsku osnovu i poveava snagu njene inercije.
Population policy is a requirement and demand of the times we are living in. Serbias response to the problems of demographic
development is based on numerous adopted documents of strategic type regarding the policy towards population fertility, mortality
and population ageing. Their adoption, however, represents only the first step. A good first step, it seems. All important resources of
the population policy are recognized in the strategies. Numerous measures and activities have been stated, many worked out. A
multi-sector approach has been accepted, defined and coordinated in their realization. However, the realization of expected results
will greatly depend on the operationalization of proposed measures and activities and of course, their putting into effect. On the
contrary, in the strategic document which the state adopted towards migrations, there has not even been an attempt to find solutions
regarding a more complete political response towards internal and external migrations. What is the least necessary is carrying out
measures and activities in order to mitigate problems which arise from a disturbed spatial population distribution and population
drain. The time factor in population policy is especially important because, on the one hand, accomplishment of positive effects and
mitigation of demographic disturbances requires time and, on the other hand, any delay of changes worsens the demographic basis
and increases the strength of its inertness.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2009
godina XLVII
ivkovi, Milorad
ADOLESCENTI, FERTILITET I REPRODUKTIVNO ZDRAVLJE MLADIH U REPUBLICI SRPSKOJ
ADOLESCENTS, FERTILITY AND REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH OF THE YOUNG IN THE BOSNIAN SERB
REPUBLIC
67-84
K.r.: adolescenti, reproduktivno zdravlje, stope fertiliteta
K.w.: adolescents, reproductive health, fertility rates
U ovome radu prikazani su podaci koji neosporno govore da model ponaanja mladih osoba u Republici Srpskoj karakterie
nedovoljna informisanost i slabo znanje o reproduktivnom zdravlju, poveavanje broja korisnika alkohola, droga i cigareta, to sa
svoje strane nosi porast rizinog ponaanja, sve ranije stupanje u seksualne odnose, poveanje broja polno prenosivih oboljenja i
neeljenih trudnoa, koje esto zavravaju abortusom ili prijevremenim porodom. Istovremeno mladi ljudi prepoznaju potrebu za
vie informacija, imenuju nadlene institucije i od njih oekuju da im pomognu. Ujedno, i sami iskazuju spremnost da ue putem
vrnjake edukacije.
S druge strane, procjenjeni rezultati koje smo dobili koritenjem dosupnih izvora, u nedostatku popisa stanovnitva, govore nam o
tekoj demografskoj situaciji u Republici Srpskoj i negativnim tendencijama u budunosti.
Kada govorimo o stopi ukupnog fertiliteta i poredimo ove podatke sa zemljama u Evropi i okruenju, moemo samo sa aljenjem da
konstatujemo da su mnogi faktori a najznaajniji su: ratna zbivanja, nesigurnost, loa ekonomsko-socijalna situacija, te izraena
migracija mladih ljudi, ali i cijelih porodica uslovili izuzetno nisku stopu ukupnog fertiliteta u Republici Srpskoj. Vie od toga
brinu tendencije ka njenom daljnjem smanjivanju i kretanju drutva ka otvorenoj depopulaciji sa nesagledivim demografskim, ali i
ekonomskim i nacionalnim posljedicama.
Istovremeno, ustanovljeno je da mladi ljudi kasnije stupaju u brak, kasnije se odluuju za roditeljstvo i rizinije se ponaaju, to sa
svoje strane smanjuje njihov fertilitetni kapacitet i smanjuje njihov udio u ukupnom fertilitetnom kapacitetu, bojei u sivo ionako
lou demografsku sliku Republike Srpske.
This paper presents data which clearly reveal that the behavior model of young people in the Bosnian Serb Republic is characterized
by an insufficient degree of information and poor knowledge on reproductive health, an increase in the number of alcohol consumers,
drugs and cigarettes which leads to an increase in risky behavior, entering sexual relations and an earlier age, an increase in the
number of sexually transmitted diseases and unwanted pregnancies which often result in abortions or premature birth. At the same
time young people recognize the necessity for more information, mention competent authorities and expect help from them. At the
same time, they show readiness to learn through peer education.
On the other hand, the estimated results which we obtained by using available sources, because of the lack of a population census,
give us information on the grave demographic situation in the Bosnian Serb Republic and negative tendencies in the future.
When we speak of the total fertility rate and compare these data with countries of Europe and the surrounding areas, we can
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unfortunately only state that many factors the most important being: war events, insecurity, unfavorable economic and social
situation, significant migration of not only young people but of whole families caused severely low total fertility rate in the Bosnian
Serb Republic. Even worse, these tendencies are further decreasing and society is moving towards open depopulation with
unforeseeable demographic, economic and national consequences.
At the same time, it has been ascertained that young people are getting married at a later age, deciding on becoming parents at a later
age and acting more riskily which decreases their fertility capacity and decreases their share in the total fertility capacity, making the
already bad demographic picture of the Bosnian Serb Republic even worse.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2009
godina XLVII
ukovi, Danilo
STANOVNITVO SRBIJE U FOKUSU TRITA RADA
CITIZENS OF SERBIA IN FOCUS OF THE LABOUR MARKET
85-100
K.r.: stanovnitvo, trite rada, nezaposlenost, reforma
K.w.: population, labour market, unemployment, reform
U radu se analizira meuzavisnost trita rada i stanovnitva, s obzirom da ponuda radne snage zavisi od broja stanovnika i njegove
strukture. Posebno se analiziraju demografski aspekti trita rada gde se ukazuje da ponuda radne snage ne zavisi samo od
kvantitativnih i kvalitativnih odlika stanovnitva, ve da je meuzavisnost trita rada i demografskih faktora mnogo sloenija i
viestruko izraena. Analiza kljunih trendova na tritu rada izneta u ovom radu pokazuje da globalna ekonomija zahteva sve veu
fleksibilnost radne snage. U tom smislu prognoze brojnih ekonomista i sociologa zasnivaju se na uverenju da e sve vei broj ljudi u
budunosti postati radnici sa portfeljom. Oni e posedovati odreeni broj vetina i kvalifikacija, koje e koristiti kako bi se u toku
svog radnog veka kretali s jednog radnog mesta na drugo. Stalno zaposlenje, odnosno postojanu karijeru, u dananjem smislu rei, e
imati samo relativno mali broj ljudi. Sve to ide u prilog tezi da ideja o "poslu za ceo radni vek" postaje stvar prolosti.
U radu se dalje dolazi do zakljuka da za trasiranje puta za efikasno trite rada, treba imati u vidu i injenicu da je tokom
devedesetih godina prolog veka dolo do poveanja siromatva i izmene strukture stanovnitva, kako zbog velikog priliva izbeglica i
interno raseljenih lica, tako i zbog velikog odliva mlaih generacija u inostranstvo i poveanja uea starih, bolesnih i izdravanih
lica. Sve ove promene jako utiu na ponudu radne snage, kako kvantitativno tako i kvalitativno, emu treba prilagoditi strategiju za
poveanje zaposlenosti. Ovome svemu treba dodati i okolnost da je tokom devedesetih godina prolog veka dolo i do bujanja sive
neformalne ekonomije, naravno na tetu formalnog sektora.
U radu se posebno istie da ekonomska kriza ima krupne nepovoljne posledice na nae trite rada. Procene brojnih eksperata
ukazuju da e nakon ekonomskog oporavka i okonanja ekonomske krize nezaposlenost i dalje biti visoka i da e oporavak trita
rada biti najsporiji, tj. da e se efekti ekonomskog oporavka najsporije reflektovati na trite rada, odnosno na rast zaposlenosti.
Zbog toga e biti nuno ubrzati reformske procese trita rada, kako bi se poveala njegova efikasnosti i tako stvorili uslovi da se
veliki radni potencijal stanovnitva Srbije racionalnije angauje, to je jedan od kljunih preduslova za vei ekonomski rast i razvoj.
This paper analyzes the mutual dependence of the labor market and the population, since the supply of the labor force depends on
population size and its structure. The demographic aspects of the labor market are especially analyzed and it is shown that the supply
of the labor force does not depend only on the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the population but that the mutual
dependence of the labor market and demographic factors are much more complex and multiply expressive. An analysis of the key
trends on the labor market presented in this paper indicates that the global economy requires an increasingly flexible labor force. In
that sense, the forecasts of numerous economists and sociologists are based on the conviction that more and more people in future
will become workers with a portfolio. They will posses a certain number of skills and qualifications which they will use to transfer
from one job on to another during their working life. A continuous profession, namely a steady career, in todays sense of the word,
will only a relatively small number of people have. It all goes in favor of the theory that having a "job for your whole working life" is
becoming a thing of the past.
In this paper it is further concluded that for tracing the path for an efficient labor market, it should be considered that, during the
nineties of the last century, there has been an increase in poverty and a change in population structure, not only because of a large
inflow of refugees and internally displaced persons, but due to emigration of the younger population and an increase of the old, ill
and dependant persons. All these changes greatly influenced the supply of the labor force, in a quantitative and qualitative way, and
thus the strategy for increasing employment should be adjusted. The rapid expansion of the underground-informal economy must be
added to all this, which grew rapidly in the nineties of the last century, naturally to the detriment of the formal sector.
This paper especially stresses that the economic crisis has large unfavorable consequences on our labor market. The estimation of
numerous experts indicate that after the economic recovery and end of the economic crisis, unemployment will still be very high and
that the recovery of the labor market will be the slowest, namely that the effects of the economic recovery will reflect the slowest on
the labor market, namely employment increase.
For this reason it will be necessary to stimulate the reformative processes of the labor market so as to increase its efficiency and thus
create conditions to rationally engage the large working potential of Serbias population, which is one of the key prerequisites for
larger economic growth and development.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/2009
godina XLVII
ANDRS SOLIMANO (ED.) "THE INTERNATIONAL MOBILITY OF TALENT: TYPES, CAUSES AND
DEVELOPMENT IMPACT"
101-108
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2010
godina XLVIII
Stankovi, Biljana, Goran Penev
TRENDOVI VANBRANIH RAANJA U SRBIJI U DRUGOJ POLOVINI 20. I POETKOM 21. VEKA U IREM
EVROPSKOM KONTEKSTU
TRENDS OF EXTRAMARITAL BIRTHS IN SERBIA IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE 20TH AND AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE 21ST CENTURY IN THE WIDER EUROPEAN CONTEXT
1-24
K.r.: vanbrana raanja, kohabitacija, zemlje u tranziciji, Srbija, Evropa
K.w.: extramarital births, cohabitation, countries in transition, Serbia, Europe
Velike promene koje se poslednjih nekoliko decenija odvijaju u vezi sa fertilitetom i porodinim formama irom Evrope praene su i
vrlo intenzivnim poveanjem udela vanbranih raanja, to sve predstavlja bitne odlike savremene etape demografskog razvitka, od
brojnih teoretiara prepoznate kao druga demografska tranzicija. U radu se sagledava fenomen vanbranih raanja u Srbiji u periodu
od 1950. do 2008. godine. Analiza je zasnovana na zvaninim statistikim podacima i obuhvata kretanje broja ivoroene dece u
braku i van braka i udele vanbranih raanja u ukupnim ivoroenjima, intenzitet i smer promena, kao i slinosti i razlike koje u tom
pogledu postoje izmeu Centralne Srbije i Vojvodine. Razmatrano je i kretanje procentnog uea raanja van braka u svim
evropskim zemljama u poslednje etiri decenije, kao i mesta Srbije u Evropi, a posebno u odnosu na susedne i ostale zemlje u
tranziciji. Poveanje udela vanbranih raanja su posebno sagledana u svetlu promena u branosti stanovnitva, a na primeru eke
ukazano je na vanost razumevanja drutvenog konteksta u kome se odvijaju promene u domenu raanja, naroito u bivim
socijalistikim zemljama.
The paper analyses the phenomenon of extramarital births in Serbia in the period of 1950-2008. Great changes that European
countries have been undergoing in the last half-century related to fertility and family forms were also followed by an intense increase
in the share of extramarital births. This is also true for Serbia (excluding Kosovo), where the share of extramarital births in total live
births for the period of 1950-2008 increased almost 3 times (from 8.0% to 22.8%), and their number increased by a fifth (from 13,1
to 15,7 thousand). At the beginning of the observed period, significant differences existed in the percentage shares of extramarital
births in the main regions, with the share in Vojvodina several times that of Central Serbia. Subsequent divergent dynamics led to the
disappearance of regional differences and, after 1970, the level of extramarital fertility was mostly balanced.
From a European aspect, the increase in the share of extramarital births in Serbia was moderate, with Serbia being one of the few
countries that also recorded a decrease in the share of extramarital births in the last four decades (between 1970 and 1980). In
comparison with other European countries, position of Serbia changed during the observed period from the top towards the bottom of
the list, so that it was in its lower half in 2008. During the 1990s, as well as at the beginning of the 2000s, the greatest increase in the
share of extramarital births in Europe was recorded in countries in transition.
In the paper, the changes in the marital status of the population were treated as one of the determinants of the increase of extramarital
births in Serbia. The paper also points out the similarities and differences between births in cohabitation and marriage, and legal
aspects related to extramarital unions and extramarital births were also analyzed. The conclusions about the degree of presence of
births in stable partner unions were made indirectly, based on the results of survey research and the latest available data on
recognition children by their fathers. Since approximately three fifths of extramarital children at the beginning of the 2000s were not
recognized, it was assumed that they were born in unstable unions and that they were brought up by their mothers alone. At the same
time, the small level of cohabitations, discovered through survey research on the representative sample, shows that the increase in
extramarital births was not proportionally followed by an increase in cohabitation. Therefore, based on indirect indicators, the authors
conclude that the phenomenon of extramarital birth in Serbia was not the result of an advanced transition in partner relationships and
abandoning of marriage as the partner union in which children are born. At the same time, the importance of understanding the social
context of births was pointed out on the example of the Czech Republic, as a country in transition.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2010
godina XLVIII
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KA RAZUMEVANJU DETERMINANTI MEUNARODNIH MIGRACIJA DANAS TEORIJSKA PERSPEKTIVA

TOWARDS UNDERSTANDING INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION DETERMINANTS TODAY THEORETICAL
PERSPECTIVE
25-48
K.r.: meunarodne migracije, teorije migracija, determinante migracija, radne migracije
K.w.: international migrations, migration theories, migration determinants, labor migrations
U vremenu globalnih migracionih tokova i sve vee mobilnosti radne snage u svetu namee se potreba za stalnim produbljivanjem
teorijskih znanja kao osnove za razumevanje glavnih determinanti ovog fenomena, a u cilju usmeravanja fokusa migracionih
istraivanja ka to efikasnijem savladavanju izazova i iskoriavanju prednosti koje meunarodne migracije mogu da donesu i
zemljama porekla, i odredita ili tranzita. Glavni cilj ovog rada je da se d kritiki osvrt na razvitak teorija ekonomskih migracija,
navedu glavne slinosti i razlike izmeu razliitih pristupa i ukae na glavne nedostatke i probleme sa kojima se suoava teorijska
perspektiva prouavanja determinanti savremenih meunarodnih radnih migracija. Teite prouavanja odnosi se na dobrovoljne
radne migracije, sa osvrtom na migracije visokoobrazovanog stanovnitva, dok je naglasak na ekonomskim teorijama, iako su neke
od njih blisko povezane sa sociolokim, geografskim i antropolokim teorijama. Na kraju rada ukazuje se na potrebu za:
usaglaavanjem teorijskih koncepata sa novim drutvenim prilikama, postindustrijskim svetom i globalnim procesima transformacije
u kojima migracije imaju vanu ulogu; prevazilaenjem nedovoljne usaglaenosti i izolovanosti u prouavanju migracija u okviru
posebnih naunih disciplina; prouavanjem uzroka i posledica migracija kao neraskidivog dela opteg procesa drutvenog razvitka.
In times of global migration flows and ever increasing mobility of the workforce in the world, the necessity for constant deepening of
theoretical knowledge is imposed as a basis for understanding main determinants of this phenomenon, and with an aim of directing
the focus of migration researches towards more efficient overcoming of challenges and making use of the advantages which
international migrations could bring both to origin, destination and transit countries. The main goal of this paper is to give a critical
review on the development of the economic migrations theory, to state the main similarities and differences between various
approaches and to point out to the main drawbacks and problems which the theoretical perspective is facing when studying the
determinants of contemporary international labor migrations.
The focus of the study refers to voluntary labor migrations with reference to migrations of the highly educated population, while the
stress is on economic theories, although some of them are closely connected to sociological, geographical and anthropological
theories.
The development of the theory on international migrations has been started by micro theoretical models, namely, through the
conceptualization of theories which place the individual in the focal point of research, who estimates the positive, namely negative
sides of moving from one location to another. Economic models on the micro theoretical level cede more space to models of macro
structure which research the social and economic structure within and between countries. There are many theoretical models which
offer possible answers to the question on what are the main determinants of international migrations on the macro analytical level.
Although every one of them tries to give an answer to the same question, they use different concepts, assumptions and frameworks of
research.
The reasons which bring about the initiation of international migrations can be significantly different from those which lead to their
stabilization in time and space. Although differences in the income height, risks, employment possibilities, market expansion can all
influence the continuation of spatial movement of population, new conditions which arise during migration begin to act as
independent factors: development of migratory networks, institutionalized support to the development of trans-national activities, as
well as changing the social context of work in countries of destination. Therefore, in the analysis of contemporary international
migrations the necessity arises for a systematic approach, namely dynamic perspective of research from recognition to a detailed
insight in changeable trends and forms of contemporary migratory movements in the world. In addition, at the same time with the
development of new markets, regional economies and technology centers, there has been a trans-national turnabout in the last
fifteen years or so in researching migrations, namely a significant development in the approach which stresses the relations which
migrants maintain with their families, communities and cultures which are out of the country in which they migrated in.
The final part of the paper calls for the requirement of the following: coordination of theoretical concepts with new social conditions,
post-industrial world and global processes of transformations in which migrations have an important role; overcoming inadequate
coordination and isolation in studying migrations within special scientific disciplines, as well as poor connections of certain aspects
of migration study; research of the causes and consequences of migrations as an inseparable part of the general process of social
development.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2010
godina XLVIII
Laji, Ivan, Mario Bara
UTICAJ RATA U HRVATSKOJ 1991-1995. NA PROMENU UDELA SRBA U NACIONALNOM SASTAVU
STANOVNITVA SLAVONIJE
EFFECTS OF THE WAR IN CROATIA 1991-1995 ON CHANGES IN THE SHARE OF ETHNIC SERBS IN THE
ETHNIC COMPOSITION OF SLAVONIA
49-73
K.r.: Hrvatska, Slavonija, mehaniko kretanje stanovnitva, nacionalna struktura, Srbi
K.w.: Croatia, Slavonia, mechanical movement of the population, national structure, the Serbs
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Predmet ovog rada je neregularnost demografskog razvoja slavonske populacije u poslednjoj meupopisnoj deceniji, gde je panja
usmerena na negativne faktore (posredne i neposredne) politiko-drutvenih promena na mehaniko kretanje stanovnitva.
Apostrofira se uticaj rata na kretanje srpske i ukupne slavonske populacije.
Osnovni metodoloki pristup je obrada i nauna analiza prikupljenih statistikih podataka iz popisa stanovnitva i drugih sekundarnih
publikacija u kojima su objavljeni podaci vezani za predmet istraivanja. Promene u nacionalnom sastavu analizirane su na nivou
gradova, optina i upanija, pa se time sledi savremena administrativno-upanijska podela Republike Hrvatske, kako bi bila mogua
uporedivost dva poslednja popisa stanovnitva (1991-2001). Centralni deo rada posveen je savremenoj demografskoj strukturi
Slavonije. Politiko-teritorijalne promene i ratni sukobi koji su pratili raspad jugoslovenske federacije imali su i obeleja etnikog
sukoba, pa su posledice naroito vidljive kroz selektivni ratni mortalitet, prisilne i iznuene migracije i promene u nacionalnom
sastavu pojedinih podruja. Popis stanovnitva 2001. evidentirao je apsolutno i relativno smanjenje srpske populacije u Slavoniji,
odnosno pad broja stanovnika srpske nacionalnosti s 167.094 ili 17,1% ukupne populacije 1991. godine na 78.085 ili 8,8% 2001.
godine.
U zakljunom delu rada naglaava se da e naruena polno-starosna struktura srpskog stanovnitva, uz izostanak povratka mlaeg
fertilnog izbeglikog stanovnitva iz drava u okruenju, uglavnom Srbije, uticati na dalje demografsko starenje analiziranih
populacija, a samim tim i opadanje njihovog udela na pojedinim podrujima, te dalje nacionalne homogenizacije delova Slavonije,
odnosno Hrvatske. Neto povoljnija demografska struktura srpskog stanovnitva zadrana je u Istonoj Slavoniji gde nije bilo
masovnog iseljavanja.
The subject of this paper are the ethno-demographical changes in the area of Slavonia during the last decade of the twentieth century.
Focus is primarily turned to negative influences (direct and indirect) of socio-political changes on the mechanical movement of
population. Especially, the influence of war on the movement of Serbian and Slavonic population in general is apostrophised.
Leading hypothesis is that the peaceful reintegration of East Slavonia, Srem and Baranja caused less demographic shifts then the
military operation "Flash" in West Slavonia.
Used methodology consists of statistical analysis and interpretation of data collected from censuses and other secondary publications
that featured data relevant to the subject of this research. The authors show the afore mentioned changes in ethnic composition of the
population on several different levels (city level, municipality level and county level) following the modern day administrative
distribution of counties in the Republic of Croatia to ensure comparability of two most recent population censuses (1991 2001).
Contemporary demographic structure of Slavonia is formed by inherited negative trends in population movements from previous
periods in history and a considerably strong mechanical drain of autochthonous population and the influx of new one from
neighboring countries in the 1990s. Political and territorial changes as well as war conflicts that followed the collapse of the
Yugoslav Federation carried with them clear characteristics of ethnic conflict, making the consequences particularly noticeable
through selective war mortality, forced and impelled migrations and changes in the ethnic composition of certain areas.
Population census in 2001. registered the absolute and relative decrease in population of Serbian nationality in Slavonia, or to be
more accurate decrease of the population of Serbian nationality from 167,094 or 17.1% of the total population in 1991, to 78,085 or
8.8% in 2001. It can be concluded that the impaired sex-age structure of the Serbian population, along with the absence of a larger
number of returnees of a younger fertile demographical profile from surrounding countries, predominantly from Serbia, will further
influence the demographic aging of the observed populations, and therefore the decline of their share in certain areas along with
increased ethnic homogenization of parts of Slavonia, i.e. Croatia. Somewhat more favorable demographic structure of the Serbian
population is kept in Eastern Slavonia, where there were no mass emigrations.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2010
godina XLVIII
Marinkovi, Ivan
GRUPISANJE ZEMALJA PREMA VODECIM UZROCIMA SMRTI U SVETU POCETKOM 21. VEKA
CLASSIFYING COUNTRIES ACCORDING TO LEADING CAUSES OF DEATH IN THE WORLD AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE 21ST CENTURY
75-101
K.r.: mortalitet, uzroci smrti, klaster analiza, svet 2002, regionalizacija

K.w.: mortality, causes of death, cluster analysis, world in 2002, regionalization
Smrtnost stanovnitva po uzroku smrti je vaan segment analize mortaliteta, jer na direktan nain sumira sve faktore koji utiu na
pokazatelje smrtnosti na odreenoj teritoriji. Poetkom 21. veka, situacija nije ista svuda u svetu i zemlje ne dele jedinstven obrazac
umiranja po uzroku smrti. Zarazna i parazitarna oboljenja su jo uvek dominantna u nerazvijenim zemljama, dok su vodei uzroci
smrti kod razvijenih zemalja bolesti krvotoka i neoplazme. U radu, korienjem geografskog informacionog sistema (Arc-View GISa), data je analiza prostorne distribucije vodeih uzroka smrti, na osnovu udela u ukupnoj smrtnosti i stopa smrtnosti stanovnitva od
odreene grupe bolesti. Statistikim metodom grupisanja podataka (claster analiza) formirane su grupe zemalja sa slinim
vrednostima smrtnosti po vodeim uzrocima smrti. Ovim metodom pokuano je da se nasuprot epidemiolokoj tranziciji, koja je
pokuala da utvrdi jedinstven obrazac kretanja uzroka smrti za sva drutva u svetu, ukae na znaaj regionalnog faktora kod
formiranja slike vodeih uzroka smrti. Modelovanje smrtnosti stanovnitva na osnovu podataka o strukturi uzroka smrti nosi puno
informacija, pre svega u kom pravcu treba da se kree zdravstvena politika jedne zemlje i koji su prioriteti za smanjenje smrtnosti i
poveanje oekivanog trajanja ivota. Na osnovu analize podataka postavljena je hipoteza o znaaju regionalnog faktora u formiranju
slike smrtnosti stanovnitva prema uzroku smrti. Regionalni faktor podrazumeva skup kako fiziko-geografskih, tako i optih
drutvenih specifinosti odreenog kraja, koji ine obrazac ponaanja stanovnitva.
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Cause mortality of a population is an important segment in the analysis of mortality, because it sums up all factors which influence
death indicators on a certain territory in a direct way. At the beginning of the 21st century, the situation is not the same everywhere in
the world and countries do not share a unique pattern of the causes of deaths. Infectious and parasitic diseases are still dominant in
underdeveloped countries, while the leading causes of deaths in developed countries are circulatory disorders and neoplasm.
Cardiovascular diseases are the cause of 29% of total mortality in the world, infectious cause 19%, tumors 13% and violent deaths
about 9% (based on data from 2002). This paper gives an analysis of the spatial distribution of the leading causes of deaths using the
geographic information system (Arc-View GIS), based on the ratio of total mortality and death rates of the population from a certain
group of diseases. Based on data analysis, a hypothesis has been set on the significance of the regional factor in forming a picture of
population mortality according to causes of death. A regional factor implies a set of physical-geographical as well as general social
specificities of a certain region which form a pattern of population behavior. Based on death rates, cardiovascular diseases are
represented the most in the mortality rates of countries in Eastern and Southeastern Europe. Infectious diseases imperil the population
in the Sub-Saharan region of Africa; tumors are most common in Europe, North America and Japan. The highest rates of violent
deaths are in countries of the former Soviet Union and the Sub-Saharan zone. Classifying death rates according to leading causes of
death represents a prerequisite for forming a final picture of mortality according to causes of death in the world at the beginning of
the "new century". The method of gathering together the causes of death is possible by applying a statistical model of classifying data
(cluster analysis). The countries of the world have been classified into eight clusters according to the leading causes of death for the
year 2002. Developed countries have been classified into three clusters based on this analysis. The Arab world has been singled out
in a separate cluster, and the specific traits of Middle Asian countries also deserved separate classification. Countries of the Indian
sub-continent and South East Asia, as well as Sub-Saharan Africa and South America formed regions on the basis of a combination
of the leading causes of death. As opposed to epidemic transition, which tried to determine a uniform trend of the causes of death for
all countries of the world, the cluster data analysis shows the significance of the regional factor when forming the depiction on the
leading causes of death. Modeling population mortality based on data on causes of deaths structure bears much information,
primarily in which direction should the health policies of a country flow and what are the priorities for decreasing mortality and
increasing life expectancy.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2010
godina XLVIII
Kolin, Marija, Lilijana ikari
RODNE NEJEDNAKOSTI U ZAPOLJAVANJU, UPRAVLJANJU I ODLUIVANJU
GENDER INEQUALITIES IN EMPLOYMENT, GOVERNANCE AND DECISION-MAKING
103-124
K.r.: rodne nejednakosti, trite rada, politika participacija, politika reprezentacija, Srbija i Evropska unija
K.w.: gender inequalities, labor market, political participation, political representation, European Union, Serbia
U ovom radu istraujemo rodne razlike u stepenu i obrascima zapoljavanja, glavne karakteristike poloaja ena na tritu rada kao i
njihovo uee u politikim institucijama i u procesima odluivanja. Analiza sadri komparativni pristup i prikazuje rodne razlike u
Srbiji i zemljama Evropske unije, ukazujui na neophodnost antidiskriminacionih mera i primenu aktivnog integrativnog pristupa
enskoj participaciji. Kvantitativni podaci korieni su iz zvanine statistike institucija Evropske unije kao i iz izvetaja UNIFEM-a i
UNICEF-a, dopunjeni kvalitativnim nalazima novijih istraivanja. Rezultati pokazuju nepovoljan poloaj ena na tritu rada koji
karakterie niska ekonomska aktivnost, nizak udeo ena na upravljakim i dobro plaenim poslovima, znaajan udeo ena na slabo
plaenim poslovima, visok stepen nezaposlenosti i siromatva, naroito ranjivih grupa ena. U drugom delu rada ukazujemo na
slinosti i razlike u modelima politikog ponaanja ena u Srbiji i zemljama Evropske unije. Analiza pokazuje da su ene manje
zastupljene u procesu politikog upravljanja i odluivanja u Srbiji nego u veini zemalja Evrope. Rad ukazuje na mogue pravce
ekonomskih i politikih promena i navodi predloge za poboljanje stanja rodne jednakosti u Srbiji.
In this paper we examine gender differences in the pattern and level of employment, main characteristics of women's employment
and their participation in political institutions, public policy and decision-making process. The analysis contains comparative view
pointed out on gender differences in Serbia and European Union and assessment of anti-discrimination measures and active
integrative approach to gender participation. The quantitative data derived from official gender sensitive statistics from EU and UN
institutions, supplemented by qualitative findings of recent surveys.
The evidence presented in the paper pointed out unfavourable position of women in the labour market, characterized by low
economic activity, limited access to managerial position and prestige wages, high unemployment, poverty and vulnerability. The
Serbian labour market is characterized by a downward rate of activity of women and a high unemployment rate, the latter being the
crucial factor of unequal position. Activity of women at the labour market amounting to 54.6% in 2006 relative to the total female
population of working age is very low. Economic activity of women is considerably beneath that of men which amounts to 72.7%
active men as compared to the total male population of working age.
Statistics and reports on the structure of the unemployed show that women are more affected by unemployment than men. It is 1.5 times
higher than that of men of the same working age. The unemployment rate in Serbia is one of the highest in Europe, ranging from 21%
to 30%, depending on the methodology of calculation. The position of unemployed women is determined by poor opportunities to
contract full-time employment, low and irregular payment of unemployment benefits, poor chances for prequalification and
professional retraining and a high probability of engagement on unpaid jobs at home or jobs in "gray economy".
In the second part of the article the differences and similarities in patterns of political behaviour of women in Serbia and European
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Union are examined, considering participation in governance, decision making and public policy. The analysis emphasizes that
women are still under-represented in political system and its institutions in Serbia, more then in the most EU countries. Namely, the
number of women in politics in Serbia was dramatically reduced in the course of the nineties due to strengthening of nationalistic
politics, ethnic conflicts, economic sanctions and isolation of the country. Relative to the socialist period, when participation of
women in parliaments was 17%, women completely disappeared from the political scene in this period. After the 1992 elections, only
4.0% women were elected into the Serbian parliament, and after the elections in 2000, of the 250 members of the Serbian parliament,
only 27 (10.8%) were women. Finally, participation of women at the 2008 Parliamentary Elections doubled (20,4%) following the
introduction of quota for the less represented gender in the Law on Election of Members of Parliament. Representation increased to
21.3% at the local level also. But, women are still underrepresented on leading positions in governing and decision making in public
policy. There are three times less women among the legislators, state agencies officials, CEOs, directors and managers.
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1/2010
godina XLVIII
Raevi, Mirjana
PEDESET GODINA KONFERENCIJA MEUNARODNE UNIJE ZA NAUNO PROUAVANJE
STANOVNITVA (IUSSP)
Marake, 27. 9. 2. 10. 2009.
125-129
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2010
godina XLVIII
Penev, Goran, Biljana Stankovi
KARAKTERISTIKE VANBRANIH RAANJA U SRBIJI U DRUGOJ POLOVINI 20. I POETKOM 21. VEKA
CHARACTERISTICS OF EXTRAMARITAL BIRTHS IN SERBIA IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE 20TH AND
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 21ST CENTURY
1-23
K.r.: vanbrana raanja, Srbija, starosni model vanbranog fertiliteta, diferencijalni vanbrani fertilitet
K.w.: extramarital births, Serbia, fertility age pattern, differential fertility
lanak je posveen analizi osnovnih karakteristika ena Srbije koje su raale van braka i to s obzirom na najvanija demografska,
socioekonomska i etnika obeleja. Korieni su podaci demografske statistike, uglavnom za period od 1961. do 2008. godine.
Fertilne ene mlae od 25 i starije od 40 godina znatno vie uestvuju u vanbranim nego u ukupnim raanjima. Majka gotovo
svakog drugog deteta roenog van braka mlaa je od 25 godina. Vie od polovine dece roene van braka je prvog reda roenja, ali se
njihovo uee smanjuje, dok se poveava uee drugog, a naroito treeg i vieg reda roenja. Udeo vanbranih raanja je rastui
kod svih ena bez obzira na njihov obrazovni nivo. Vanbrana raanja su najea meu enama bez kole, a najrea kod ena sa
fakultetskim obrazovanjem. Prema aktivnosti, najbrojnije su nezaposlene ene i izdravane, koje imaju i znatno vee udele
vanbranih raanja nego zaposlene ene. Sa etnikog aspekta, najea su vanbrana raanja meu Romkinjama, a udeo je stalno
rastui (dostie gotovo 90%). Postoje i naglaene regionalne razlike zona visokog udela vanbranog fertiliteta je na istoku Srbije, a
zona niskog na zapadu centralnog dela Srbije. Udeo vanbranih raanja je manji u gradskim nego u ostalim naseljima, a u najveim
gradovima, ukljuujui i Beograd, je ispod proseka za Srbiju.
Pretpostavlja se da e u Srbiji budua kretanja u domenu vanbranih raanja biti slina kao ranijih decenija, jer se ne radi o fenomenu
vezanom za usvajanje novih vrednosti i normi, ve prvenstveno o nastavku tendencija prisutnih u sredini sa tradicionalnim moralnim
normama.
Over the last five decades the share of extramarital births in the total number of live births has been increasing in all European
countries. This is also true for Serbia (excluding Kosovo), where the share of extramarital births in the period of 1950-2009 increased
by 3 times (from 8.0% to 23.2%), and their number increased by a fifth (from 13,141 to 16,294).
Women under 25 years of age and over 40-49 years have a substantially higher share in extramarital births than in the total number of
births. Almost every second extramarital child's mother is younger than 25, and changes in the period of 1961-2008 developed in the
direction of a decreasing share of women under the age of 30, and especially under 25, as well as an increased share of women above
30. According to the latest data, more than a half of extramarital children are first, although their share is decreasing. At the same
time, the percentage of births of second and especially of third and higher orders is increasing.
The share of extramarital births is increasing with all women, regardless of their education level. The highest and constantly growing
share of extramarital births is recorded with women without education and the lowest share with women with university education.
According to activity, the most represented are unemployed and dependant women, who also have significantly higher shares of
extramarital births than employed women. From an ethnic aspect, it is noticeable that the highest and constantly increasing share of
extramarital births is present with ethnic Roma women, which reached over four fifths of the total number of children born by Roma
women in 2008. Among the ethnic Serbian women the share of extramarital births is significantly below the average for Serbia.
According to the type of settlements the share of extramarital births is lower in urban than in other (non-urban) settlements, and in
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the largest urban agglomerations, including Belgrade, it is even below the average for Serbia. Some significant regional differences
can also be noted the zone of the high share of extramarital fertility is in the east of Serbia, while the zone of lower and medium
fertility is in the west of central part of Serbia.
It is assumed that future dynamics in the area of extramarital births in Serbia will develop in a manner similar to that of the last
several decades. It can be concluded that this is not a phenomenon related to adopting new values and norms, but primarily a
continuation of already present tendencies in an environment with traditional moral norms.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2010
godina XLVIII
Morokvari, Mirjana
FEMINIZACIJA MIGRACIJA?
FEMINIZATION OF MIGRATIONS?
25-52
K.r.: ene, migracije, rod, feminizacija, rodna tranzicija

K.w.: women, migration, gender, feminization, gender transition
ene su uvek uestvovale u migracijama, ali razliito, zavisno od zemlje porekla, situacije na tritu rada, migracione politike
zemalja imigracije. Njihovo prisustvo meutim nije uvek bilo vidljivo niti je privlailo toliku panju kao danas kada naglo i veliko
interesovanje za ene i rod u migracijama ak prevazilazi okvire migracionih i rodnih studija. ta se to desilo, otkuda toliko
interesovanje u poslednje vreme, dok je do pre nekoliko godina tema bila marginalna, u senci "malestream-a" dakle migracije kao
fenomena koji se odnosi na geografsku pokretljivost mukaraca dok ene prate, slede ili ostaju kod kue i ne igraju ulogu kao prave
protagonistkinje migracija? Ovaj tekst se kritiki osvre na pojam feminizacije u migracijama i ukazuje na to da feminizacija (tj. u
prvom redu brojano poveanje ena u odnosu na mukarce migrante, ali i navodna promena u kvalitetu migracionih tokova) krije
velike varijacije uslovljene stepenom razvoja zemlje imigracije, stepenom zrelosti migracija i poreklom migranata. U nekim
migracionim grupama mukarci su se kretali kao prethodnici i postepenom feminizacijom dolazi najee do uravnoteenog odnosa
migranata i migrantkinja. Tamo gde su ene naprotiv krenule prve, ili gde su bile u veini, vremenom moe doi do obrnutog procesa
maskulinizacije. Zato neki autori s pravom predlau da se upotrebljava izraz "rodna tranzicija". Razloge za poveanu vidljivost i
interesovanje za ene u migracijama i odnedavno za rodne aspekte migracija treba traiti drugde: u obnovi teorijskih perspektiva
kako u migracijskim tako i u rodnim studijama, kao i nekim aspektima konteksta u kome je do te obnove postepeno dolo.
Women have always taken part in migrations, but their presence varied depending on their origins, on the labour market situation
both in the areas of origin and in the target areas, as well as the migration policies in the immigration areas. Their presence was not
always visible and did not attract as much scholarly and political attention as today. What happened, how can one explain such an
interest lately, whereas only few years ago the subject was marginal, in the shadow of the "mainstream malestream", i.e. migration
as a phenomenon which focuses on geographic mobility of men, while women are not considered as equal protagonists, they either
follow or remain at home. Could the so called "feminization" of migration explain the great and sudden interest for women and
gender in migrations? This text critically examines the notion of "feminization" considered today as one of the main dimensions of
global migration flows. Drawing on trends both globally and in specific countries, it shows that "feminization" is neither a new nor a
sudden trend and entails variations depending on the origins, level of development and maturity of migration flows. In some groups
men were primo-migrants and with a gradual feminization the flows reach a balanced sex ratio. There where women migrated first,
or became numerically predominant, one observs the opposite trend: a "masculinization". Some authors rightly refer to "gender
transition", the term which covers both trends. It is argued in the conclusion that the visibility and growing interest for women in
migration and, more recently, for a gender perspective in migration, is not only due to the changing migration patterns and profile of
migrants but also to the renewal of theoretical perspectives in migration and gender studies in a context that largely facilitated that
renewal. The focus of our attention today on specific aspects of migration is triggered not only by genuine changes in migration
trends, but it is also a result of a long process of visibilisation in the academic production on migration, women and gender. These
trends may have existed earlier in the migration history but had remained in the shadow of categories defining, recording and
analyzing migration.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2010
godina XLVIII
Savi, Mirko, Svetlana Mihajlovi Mihi
VARIJACIJE NA TRITIMA RADA U EVROPI SA ASPEKTA POLA
VARIATIONS ON THE EUROPEAN LABOR MARKETS FROM GENDER POINT OF VIEW
53-74
K.r.: trite rada, ekonomska aktivnost, rodne razlike, Evropa, Srbija

K.w.: labor market, economic activity, gender gap, Europe, Serbia
Rodne razlike predstavljaju temu kojoj se posveuje velika panja u modernim drutvima i istraivai koji se bave ovim problemom
pristupaju mu iz ugla razliitih naunih disciplina: demografije, sociologije, ekonomije itd. Cilj ovog rada je da se definiu osnovne
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varijable koje objanjavaju varijacije na tritima rada u Evropi sa aspekta pola i da se izvri komparacija trita rada u Srbiji sa
evropskim zemljama da bi se identifikovale one zemlje koje imaju najslinije rodne performanse, sa namerom da se sagledaju
iskustva tih zemalja u pogledu mera koje se preduzimaju za poveanje ekonomske aktivnosti ena. Analiza je izvrena posmatranjem
stopa aktivnosti, zaposlenosti, nezaposlenosti, neaktivnosti i dugorone nezaposlenosti. Uz pomo faktorske analize identifikovani su
glavni faktori koji utiu na varijacije na tritu rada u Evropi, a na osnovu klaster analize izvreno je grupisanje zemalja korienjem
izraunatih faktor skorova i identifikovan je klaster u kojem se nalazi trite rada u Srbiji, kao i njegovo mesto unutar samog klastera.
U nastavku rada uraena je kvalitativna analiza pojedinih zemalja iz pomenutog klastera da bi se videlo kakva su njihova iskustva
kada su u pitanju rodne razlike i na koji nain pokuavaju da ih prevaziu, sa posebnim osvrtom na Italiju. Istraivanja sprovedena u
nekim zemljama jasno upuuju na formulisanje politike trita rada koja bi vodila smanjivanju nejednakosti, kako u plaenom tako i
u neplaenom radu. Smanjivanjem ovog jaza dolo bi do poveane ponude enskog rada na tritu. Krajnji rezultat ovog istraivanja
predstavljaju preporuke za voenje politike na tritu rada radi smanjivanja rodnih razlika u ekonomskoj aktivnosti sa orijentacijom
ka stvaranju modernog drutva u Srbiji i pribliavanju grupi zemalja koje su postigle najvei napredak na tom polju.
In modern societies gender gap attracts significant attention. Scientists are trying to research this issue from different aspects:
demographical, sociological, economic, etc. The goal of this paper is to define the basic variables that explain variation on the labor
markets in Europe from the gender point of view and to compare labor market in Serbia with European countries in order to identify
the countries with the most similar gender performances, with intention to overview their experiences concerning the policy measures
for gender gap reduction. Analysis is conducted through observations of activity rates, employment rates, unemployment rates,
inactivity rates, and long-term unemployment rates. With use of factor analysis we have identified the main factors on the labor
markets in Europe and on the basis of cluster analysis we have conducted grouping of countries on the basis of discovered factors.
Identification of cluster with Serbia was conducted and also the place of the Serbian labor market in the same cluster. On the basis of
quantitative results qualitative analysis was conducted to overview the experience in the field of gender differences on the labor
market in the countries from the same cluster as Serbia, with special attention to Italy. Contemporary researches define labor market
policy measures oriented to reduction of inequalities in the field of paid and unpaid labor. Decrease of these inequalities will
consequently lead to the increase of female labor supply on the market. Final result of this research is the recommendation of policy
measures in order to reduce gender differences in economic activity with final goal of creating modern society in Serbia and
convergence with the most advanced countries in that field.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2010
godina XLVIII
Stojilkovi, Jelena
"BABY BOOM" GENERACIJE NA PRAGU PENZIONISANJA
BABY BOOM GENERATION AT THE RETIREMENT ONSET
75-91
K.r.: "baby boom" generacija, penzionisanje, starosna struktura penzionera, polna struktura penzionera, projekcije radno
sposobnog stanovnitva
K.w.: baby boom generation, retirement, pensioners age structure, pensioners sex structure, projections, working age
population
Cilj rada je sagledavanje uticaja brojano obimnije "baby boom" generacije nastale posle Drugog svetskog rata na penzionisanje u
naoj zemlji, kao i istorijskih uzroka i posledica koje oblikuju trenutne i budue trendove, koristei demografske pokazatelje. Da bi se
objasnio uticaj "baby boom" generacije na strukturu penzionera, polo se od starosno-polne strukture "baby boomera", dok je
poseban osvrt na ekonomskoj strukturi "baby boom" generacije. Kao metod za dimenzioniranje budueg kretanja broja penzionera,
upotrebljen je pokazatelj o oekivanom trajanju ivota i projekcije stanovnitva. Na osnovu podataka iz popisa i statisike PIO fonda,
moe se zakljuiti da trenutni broj penzionera, iako znaajan, nee biti i konaan. Naime, sa skorim sticanjem prava na starosnu
penziju, "baby boom" generacija e gotovo sigurno uticati na poveanje broja penzionera, odnosno smanjenje broja radno sposobnog
stanovnitva. Disbalans koji postoji u obimu petogodinje starosne grupe, koja ulazi u radno sposobno doba i koja bi trebalo da na
neki nain "zameni" generaciju koja izlazi iz njega tj. "baby boom" generaciju, jeste znaajan, to je vidljivo na starosno-polnoj
piramidi dananje i projektovane populacije. Alarmiranje javnosti, kao i odreeno pripremanje na ovaj nagli prelaz je neophodno,
kako ne bi bilo dramatinih posledica. Problem velikog broja penzionera se mora reavati integralnim merama. Nizak fertilitet, koji
je zapravo uzrok poveanja udela penzionera u ukupnom stanovnitvu se takoe ne sme posmatrati izolovano, ve mora postojati
svest o uzrono-posledinim odnosima meu ovim fenomenima.
Sudden increase in the number of live births after the Second World War due to an increase in fertility rates has led to the formation
of cohorts with specific characteristics or baby boom generation. This generation is unique in the history of the demographic
phenomenon that has affected and affects the functioning of many segments of society. The aim of this paper is to assess structure of
baby boomers who are few years away from retirement, using demographic data. Impact of baby boomer age structure of current and
future retirees is described with a graphical display of current and projected age pyramid of baby boomers. Demographic pattern that
women live longer than men is evident in the projected pyramid. In addition, the number of baby boomers will lead to a "younger"
old population. The imbalance in the number of men and women pensioners, as well as older cohorts of women and female baby
boomers was analysed. As a result, an increasing trend of women's age pensioners who are members of the baby boom generation
was clearly observed, which is opposite to the older cohort of women who often were family pensioners. Different circumstances and
conditions in which female boomers lived and worked will form a new "pension model" because they will gain their benefits as well
as men, for the first time in significant number, unlike their mothers, which gained the right to retire after they become widows.
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Number of women age pensioners is getting greater compering to men, as the result of changes in the economic activities of women
in the last half of the 20th century. When baby boomers retire and exit the working population, this will create a vacuum, because the
numerically smaller generations will enter working population, while the sudden and very shortly, the number of population older
than 60 or 65 will increase, most of them will likely to acquire the right to a pension. It is undeniable that baby boomers had impact
on demographic structure, but also on society as a whole. They have been extremely important factor of development of our country
during their working career, they are healthier then previous generation and many of them possess the knowledge and experience
gained by the years, so rigid prediction of future changes that will produce the retirement of this generation has no excuses. Retired
baby boom generation will perhaps lead to new, better way of life in old age.
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/2010
godina XLVIII
Stojilkovi, Jelena
LINDA J. WAITE (ED.) "AGING, HEALTH AND PUBLIC POLICY. DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC
PERSPECTIVES"
93-100
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/2010
godina XLVIII
Paunovi, Dragana
MIOMIRA KOSTI "VIKTIMITET STARIH LJUDI"
100-107
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2011
godina XLIX
Raevi, Mirjana, Katarina Sedlecki
PITANJE POSTOJANJA ABORTUSNE KULTURE U SRBIJI
THE ABORTION CULTURE ISSUE IN SERBIA
1-13
K.r.: abortus, kultura, Srbija
K.w.: abortion, culture, Serbia
Na problem velikog broja abortusa u naoj sredini ukazano je jo davne 1935. godine na 17. Kongresu jugoslovenskih lekara.
Abortusni problem je i danas prisutan u Srbiji i pored toga to je moderna nauka pruila nove metode i sredstva koja su sa
zdravstvenog i socijalnog aspekta logino reenje dileme o vidu kontrole raanja. Naime, stopa ukupnih abortusa u Srbiji se
procenjuje na 2,76 u 2007. godini. Ona je vrlo visoka, dva puta je via od stope ukupnog fertiliteta i meu najviima je u Evropi i
svetu. Prvi put je pojam abortusna kultura, koliko je nama poznato, upotrebio Henri Dejvid u uvodu knjige From Abortion to
Contraception A Resource to Public Policies and Reproductive Behaviour in Central and Eastern Europe from 1917 to the Present,
iz 1999 godine, posebno ga ne odreujui, prilikom razmatranja rasprostranjenosti namernih prekida trudnoe u socijalistikim
zemljama. Cilj ovog rada je identifikovanje najvanijih faktora deterministike osnove endemije namernih prekida trudnoe u Srbiji,
uz istovremeno indirektno procenjivanje njihove povezanosti sa postojanjem, odnosno nepostojanjem abortusne kulture u nas. U tom
smislu su razmotreni potencijalni faktori koji izviru iz socijalnog sistema i oni koji su vezani za individualni nivo. Ili drugim reima,
analiziran je niz zakona i drugih pravnih i politikih dokumenata koji su bitni za sagledavanje abortusnog pitanja, institucionalni
okviri planiranja porodice, zdravstveni servisi, obrazovanje mladih za reproduktivno zdravlje, kao i nalazi vie istraivanja
sprovedenih meu enama razliite starosti i lekarima od 1990. do danas u Srbiji. Zakljueno je da izdvojeni makro i mikro faktori
tradicionalne kontrole raanja u Srbiji potvruju postojanje abortusne kulture. Priroda ovih faktora, pak, ukazuje na prisutnost
abortusne kulture u naoj sredini na politikom, obrazovnom, zdravstvenom i individualnom nivou. Abortusna kultura oteava
uvoenje modernog koncepta planiranja porodice i upuuje na perzistiranje abortusnog problema u nas i u godinama koje dolaze.
The problem of a large number of abortions in our country was first pointed out as far back as 1935 at the 17th Congress of Yugoslav
Physicians. The abortion problem in Serbia is still present today, even though modern science has provided new methods and means
which are a logical solution to the dilemma on birth control methods from the health and social aspect. Namely, total abortion rate in
Serbia was estimated at 2.76 in the year 2007. It is very high; double the number of the total fertility rate and among the highest in
Europe and the world.
The term abortion culture was first used, as far as we know, by Henry David in the introduction of the book From Abortion to
Contraception - A Resource to Public Policies and Reproductive Behavior in Central and Eastern Europe from 1917 to the Present in
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1999, without specifically determining it. The aim of this paper is to identify the most important factors of the deterministic basis of
endemic induced abortions in Serbia together with indirectly estimating their connection with the existence, namely nonexistence, of
the abortion culture in our country.
In that sense, potential factors of abortion incidence in Serbia which emerge from the social system and those connected to the
individual level have been considered. In other words, a series of laws and other legal and political documents have been analyzed
which are significant for perceiving the abortion matter, as well as institutional frameworks for family planning, health services,
educating the youth regarding reproductive health, including findings of numerous researches carried out among women of various
age and doctors from 1990 till present day in Serbia.
The following most significant factors for the long duration of the abortion problem have been singled out: insufficient knowledge of
modern contraception, a belief that modern contraceptive methods are harmful to health and a number of psychological barriers as
well as those arising from relationships with partners. Gynecological attitudes about modern contraception and behavior do not differ
significantly from the rest of the population. Additionally, there are few organized efforts to promote sex education, as well as
limitations in the family planning programme.
Distinguished macro and micro factors of traditional birth control in Serbia confirm the existence of the abortion culture. The nature
of these factors though, indicate to the presence of the abortion culture in our country on the political, educational, health and
individual level. The abortion culture obstructs the adoption of a modern concept of family planning and points out to the persistence
of the abortion problem in our country in the years to come.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2011
godina XLIX
Ponjavi, Zoran, Mirjana Varjai
PRAVNO-MEDICINSKI ASPEKTI RADA ETIKOG ODBORA ZA PREKID TRUDNOE
LEGAL AND MEDICAL ASPECTS OF THE ETHICS COMMITTEES WORK RELATING TO ABORTION
15-31
K.r.: prekid trudnoe, etiki odbor, pravno-medicinski aspekti, Kliniki centar Kragujevac
K.w.: abortion, ethics committee, legal and medical aspects, Clinical Center in Kragujevac
U lanku se analizira nastanak i funkcionisanje etikih odbora za prekid trudnie u Republici Srbiji, posebno kroz rad ovog odbora
pri Klinikom centru u Kragujevcu. Najpre se izlau razlozi koji su doveli do pojave etikih odbora uopte. U pitanju je, pre svega,
razvoj biomedicine, kao i pojava bioetike, nove naune discipline, koja treba da odgovori na pitanje da li su rezultati naunih
istraivanja uvek etiki prihvatljivi. Ovo je naroito aktuelno u sluaju primene prenatalne dijagnostike u cilju utvrivanja stanja
ploda pre roenja. Ovim je omogueno da se jo u ranoj fazi trudnoe otkriju anomalije ploda i izvri njen prekid, bez izazivanja
veih etikih i pravnih dilema. Meutim, mogunosti prenatalne dijagnostike su jo uvek ograniene. Ponekad dobijeni rezultati nisu
potpuno izvesni ili se, s druge strane, neke od anomalija zaetka mogu otkriti dosta kasno, krajem drugog i poetkom treeg trimestra
trudnoe, to sve, pored medicinskih, izaziva velike etike i pravne dileme. U ovakvim sluajevima u zakonodavstvu Republike
Srbije je predvieno da uslove za vrenje prekida trudnoe utvruje etiki odbor zdravstvene ustanove. Ovaj odbor ima ulogu da
prui pomo lekarima u pogledu utvrivanja uslova za vrenje kasnog pobaaja, budui da pravila lekarske etike nisu u ovom sluaju
dovoljna. Njegovo uvoenje je pokuaj da se u oblasti reproduktivnih prava jasnije artikuliu drutveni interesi. Veina odobrenih
prekida trudnoe pred Etikim odborom Klinikog centra u Kragujevcu odnosila se na anomalije ploda, manji broj na zdravlje majke,
a nijedan na tzv. pravne indikacije. Na kraju se predlau i nova zakonodavna reenja koja jasnije oslikavaju etike dileme.
This paper analyses the legal and medical aspects of the work of ethics committees on abortion. According to the legislation of the
Republic of Serbia, these committees are competent to determine justifiable terms for abortion after the twentieth week of the fetus.
It is well known that abortion is not only a medical but a legal, ethic, social and demographic problem as well. A liberal solution in
view of abortion in the first trimester has been accepted in most European countries, as by the legislature of the Republic of Serbia.
Since prenatal diagnosis cannot always determine the fetus state with certainty but at times may do so at a later stage, abortion is then
required when the child is already capable of extrauterine life. The necessity for performing abortion in the third trimester is thus a
result of good knowledge of techno-medicine but also from the limited information it provides. In such situations, the physician
needs confirmation and justification of his standpoint with respect to abortion through a legal formulation which should contain
"minimum moral". Society has found a way to protect and help him through moral and ethic forms of prevention without anybodys
emotions being affected. Ethics committees should thus help the physician in view of determining the terms for performing late
abortion, since the rules of doctors ethics are not sufficient in this case.
The article especially analyses the work of the Ethics Committee of the Clinical Center in Kragujevac in the period 2000-2010. It is
stated that the largest number of cases referred to determined diseases or fetus anomalies while only a negligible number (11.29%) to
the illness of the mother. There were no requests for abortions due to legal reasons (pregnancies from criminal offences).
A significant number (40.28%) of requests submitted to the Ethics Committee related to pregnancies under the 24th week of
pregnancy. Since a pregnancy of 24 weeks represents a boundary line between a miscarriage and preterm birth, the paper proposes a
shift in the boundary line of pregnancies which must be terminated according to the Ethics committee, from 20 weeks of gestation to
24 weeks of gestation. At the same time, the requirement for narrowing legal conditions for abortion in later phases of pregnancies is
pointed out as well as abolition of legal indications.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2011
godina XLIX
Klajn-Tati, Vesna
AKTUELNI PROBLEMI ABORTUSA, PRENATALNOG GENETSKOG TESTIRANJA I UPRAVLJANJA
TRUDNOOM
CURRENT PROBLEMS REGARDING ABORTION, PRENATAL GENETIC TESTING AND MANAGING
PREGNANCY
33-52
K.r.: abortus, fetus, testiranje, trudnoa, reproduktivan izbor
K.w.: abortion, fetus, testing, pregnancy, reproductive choice
U radu se razmatraju aktuelni etiki i pravni problemi abortusa, prenatalnog genetskog testiranja i upravljanja trudnoom. O ovim
problemima govori se kako sa gledita pravne teorije, tako i sa stanovita zakona Srbije, Evropske konvencije o ljudskim pravima i
fundamentalnim slobodama, Evropskog suda za ljudska prava, pravnih propisa nekih zemalja Evropske unije, SAD i Japana i njihove
sudske prakse. Najpre se ukazuje na pravne mogunosti za prekid trudnoe u Srbiji. Potom se posebno razjanjavaju sledea pitanja:
prvo se tie abortusa prema pro life i pro choice pristupu, u drugom se razmatra abortus prema pristupu Pravu (zakonu) kao putu
reavanja opstanka, u treem je re o moralnom i pravnom statusu fetusa, etvrto pitanje odnosi se na prenatalno genetsko testiranje,
dok se peto pitanje bavi upravljanjem trudnoom danas.
Moralni i pravni princip autonomije odnosno slobode izbora pojedinca, privatnosti i samoodreenja daju pravo eni da namerno
prekine neeljenu trudnou. S druge strane, vrednost "ivota fetusa" raste u moralnoj i pravnoj vrednosti sa starou gestacije; od
treeg tromeseja preovlauje interes drava u zatiti "ivota fetusa", osim ako postoji rizik po ivot ili zdravlje trudne ene.
Prenatalno genetskim testiranjem, enin autonomni izbor je ozbiljno prejudiciran, jer se na ene vri pritisak prvo sa genetskim
testiranjem, a onda sa prekidanjem trudnoe, ako je test pozitivan. Pristalice dokazuju da im je cilj da olakaju informisane
reproduktivne odluke. Upravljanje trudnoom danas, medikalizuje i patologizuje sve trudnoe, a ne smo one rizine. Poto
savremene tehnike postaju rutinski deo medikalizovang upravljanja trudnoom, postavlja se pitanje koliko nove tehnologije nude
trudnicama smislene izbore.
Current ethical and legal issues with regard to abortion, prenatal genetic testing and managing pregnancy are discussed in this paper.
These problems are considered from the legal theory point of view as well as from the standpoint of the Serbian Law, the European
Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms, European Court of Human Rights, legal regulations of
several EU countries, the USA, Japan, and their judicial practice. First, the pregnancy termination standards that exist in Serbia are
introduced. Then the following issues are explained separately: the pro life and pro choice approaches to abortion; abortion according
to the legal approach as a way of survival; the moral and legal status of the fetus; prenatal genetic testing, and finally matters
regarding managing pregnancy today.
Moral and legal principals of autonomy, namely freedom of choice of the individual, privacy and self-determination give women the
right to terminate unwanted pregnancies. In addition, the basic question is whether the right of the woman to abortion clashes with
the rights of others. Firstly, with the right of the "fetus to life". Secondly, with the right of the state to intervene in the interest of
protecting "the life of the fetus". Third, with the rights of the womans partner.
The fetus has the moral right to life, but less in relation to the same right of the woman as well as in relation to her right to control her
life and her physical and moral integrity. On the other hand, the value of the life of the fetus increases morally and legally with the
maturity of gestation; from the third trimester, the interest of the state prevails in the protection of the "life of the fetus" except when
the life or health of the pregnant woman are at risk. As regards the rights of the womans partner, namely the husbands opinion,
there is no legal significance. The law does not request his participation in the decision on abortion because the decision is
exclusively brought by the pregnant woman.
Critics of prenatal genetic testing claim that the womans autonomous choice is seriously prejudiced, as the women are pressured first
with genetic testing and then with abortion, if the test is positive. However, there are views that many parents are left to bring their
decisions in a vacuum because the physicians do not discuss all possible available options with them out of fear that they will be
perceived as orders. Genetic counseling has an aim to facilitate informed reproductive decisions. Rigid application of policies on
non-directive genetic counseling make pregnant women and families unaware of the nature and consequences of the genetic state
which could affect the future child. If the real goal is an informed choice then it is the obligation of the physician-specialist to inform
the parents with the facts and familiarize them with the true state.
Managing pregnancies today medicalizes and pathologizes all pregnancies, and not only the risky ones. Since these techniques are
becoming a routine part of medicalized pregnancy managing, pregnant women find it difficult to resist undertaking such technologies
or to refuse them. Thus the question on how much these technologies offer sensible choices is imposed. Generally speaking, it is
stated that women are becoming observers rather than active participants in giving birth to a new life. Attempts of legal control over
a pregnant woman for the protection of "the life of the fetus" violate the womans human rights in democratic societies.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2011
godina XLIX
Petrovi, Mina
PROMENE BRANOSTI I PORODINIH MODELA U POSTSOCIJALISTIKIM ZEMLJAMA:
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ZAKASNELA I NEPOTPUNA ILI SPECIFINA DRUGA DEMOGRAFSKA TRANZICIJA?

CHANGES OF MARITAL BEHAVIOUR AND FAMILY PATTERNS IN POST-SOCIALIST COUNTRIES:
DELAYED, INCOMPLETE OR SPECIFIC SECOND DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION?
53-78
K.r.: demografska tranzicija, brak, porodica
K.w.: demographic transition, marriage, family
Rad ukazuje na kontekstualne specifinosti teorije druge demografske tranzicije u postsocijalistikim zemljama, a posebno u Srbiji.
Osnovni argument je da se promene u sferi branosti i porodine organizacije u postsocijalistikim drutvima ne mogu posmatrati
samo kao zakasnele ili nepotpune u odnosu na iskustvo razvijenih evropskih zemalja, ve da su odraz specifinog procesa
modernizacije ovih drutava. U prvom delu iznose se neke teorijske generalizacije posmatranih fenomena, zasnovane na
istraivanjima razvijenih evropskih zemalja, a potom i (post)socijalistikih zemalja, i ukazuje na neadekvatnost primene istih
metodolokih instrumenata u zemaljama razliitog drutveno-ekonomskog i institucionalnog konteksta. U drugom delu rada
razmatrani koncepti se kontekstualizaciju u odnosu na promene u Srbiji i ilustruju na podacima nekoliko skoranjih sociolokih
istraivanja. Pokazuje se da kontekst ratnih deavanja, nacionalnih sukoba i spore drutveno-ekonomske transformacije oteava
strukturne preduslove promena branosti i porodinih modela i doprinosi ambivalentnosti u sferi vrednosti, te paradoksu da osobe sa
niim obrazovanjem i dohotkom, iako imaju tradicionalnije i konzervativnije vrednosti, postaju nosioci kohabitacija i vanbranih
raanja. Tvrdi se da u Srbiji dominiraju adaptivne strategije postojeih obrazaca branosti (porodice), tako da i u okviru proirenih
porodica utoite nalazi dobar broj jednoroditeljskih porodica, pa i kohabitacionih zajednica. Dok relativna deprivacija viih slojeva
inhibira izbor alternativnih opcija, apsolutna deprivacija niih slojeva ponekad rezultira neeljenim oblicima ponaanja, i uslovljava
veu zastupljenost kohabitacija i vanbranih roenja na donjem delu socijalne stratifikacije. Oekuje se da i sa strukturnim
napretkom Srbija zadri obeleja vrednosnog familizma, te da kohabitacije budu dominantno predbrane, uz porast broja onih koje su
u skladu sa (izmenjenim) eljama/preferencama aktera.
The paper starts by questioning the theory of second demographic transition (SDT) and its universal relevance in the field of
marriage behavior and family organization in low fertility context, arguing for more differentiated approaches. With an aim to
illustrate the contextual specifics of post-socialist countries in general and of Serbia in particular, the author claims that analyzed
changes have not just been delayed or incomplete in comparison to more developed European countries, but shaped by specific
modernization processes, which led to rationally developed strategies in overcoming structural risks, although, without ideational
changes typical to the theory of SDT. Slow changes in marital behavior and family organization in Serbia are illustrated in recent
sociological (empirical) research findings. The perceived changes are linked to specific structural risks (war, slow transformation and
enduring economic hardships, weak state and low trust in institutions, etc) and value characteristics (persistence of materialism and
traditionalism, but with increasing ambivalence). The connection between structural and ideational changes is considered through
social stratification variable by relying on Coale's model on necessary preconditions for behavioral changes as well as on social
deprivation concept. Having in mind upper social strata (more educated and better off), the value changes precede the behavioral that
are adapted to economic uncertainty, which still force more traditional marital and family patterns. Therefore, there is a rank of
different options, from extended family (for a short period at the beginning of marriage or after divorce) to separated leaving (of
married partners) in parental households (due to refusing the extended family option thus creating quite specific "living apart
together" form), combined with dominant strategy of prolonging the marriage. Hence, for upper social strata, marriage is still a
universal but negotiable institution since more alternative options (although attractive and in accordance to changing values) are
deemed irrational (have no obvious benefit). As regards the lower social strata (less educated and worse off), marriage is more in
accordance with their higher inclination to traditional values, but general value liberalization legitimizes possible failures (divorces,
extra marital births), which, even if not desired or economically rational, happen due to lower capacity to command life. For that
reason, cohabitations and extra marital births are more common among actors at the lower end of the stratification ladder. The paper
concludes that adaptive strategies related to traditional patterns of family organization dominate in Serbia, which might be illustrated
by the fact that every third of one parent families lives in extended families. Even with significant structural changes (and economic
improvements) in Serbia in the near future it is realistic to expect familism as an influential context, which suggests the spreading of
cohabitation primarily as a pre-marital option (but more desired than forced).
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2011
godina XLIX
Gavrilovi, Ana, Aleksandar Jugovi
ZNAAJ I ULOGA LOKALNE SAMOUPRAVE U POPULACIONOJ POLITICI SRBIJE
THE SIGNIFICANCE AND ROLE OF LOCAL SELF-GOVERNMENTS IN THE POPULATION POLICY OF
SERBIA
79-103
K.r.: drutvo, demografske promene, lokalna samouprava, populaciona politika, Srbija
K.w.: society, demographic changes, local self-government, population policy, Serbia
Polazite rada je da stanovnitvo treba da bude u centralnom fokusu institucija lokalne zajednice i da lokalna zajednica moe
konstituisati svoju populacionu politiku koja e dopuniti mere dravne populacione politike, uvaavajui lokalne specifinosti
razliitih tradicija, vrednosti i modela ivljenja. Kritiko sagledavanje karakteristika, znaaja i uloga lokalne samouprave u aktuelnoj
populacionoj politici Srbije predstavlja osnovni cilj rada. Analiziraju se obeleja socijalne situacije i socijalne politike u Srbiji u
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kontekstu populacione politke. Ukazuje se da siromatvo, nezaposlenost, ekonomska kriza, proces privatizacije, pitanje
decentralizacije sistema i socijalna oekivanja stanovnitva, kao aktuelni izrazi tranzicije, imaju posledice na demografski razvoj i
populacionu politiku. U fokusu rada su i kritika ocena aktivnosti u oblasti populacione politike koju sprovode lokalne i pokrajinske
samouprave u Srbiji u poslednjoj deceniji, sa posebnim osvrtom na aktivnosti pokrajinskih i lokalnih vlasti u AP Vojvodini. Kao
rezultat analize istie se da su od 2000. godine mere populacione i socijalne politike razdvojene i da su usmerene samo na podsticanje
raanja dece, ali ne i njhovo podizanje; da su reenja vezana za porodiljsko odsustvo donela poboljanja, ali su i skratila duinu
porodiljskog odsustva za tree dete; da je nova koncepcija populacione politike donela itav niz restrikcija. Autori ukazuju na
vrednosti i principe na kojima treba da se uspostavi savremena populaciona politika lokalnih samouprava u Srbiji. Predlae se
osnivanje optinskih fondova za populacionu politiku, kao i da mere lokalne populacione politike budu materijalnog i nematerijalnog
tipa, ali i u obliku mera organizacione prirode kojima se mogu bolje iskoristiti postojei resursi. Populaciona politika lokalne
samouprave treba da bude stalan proces kojim se upravlja, koji se prati i evaluira, koji je javan i koji podrazumeva angaovanje
kompetentnih ljudi, uee graana-volontera i civilnih organizacija.
Population should be in the central focus of local community institutions and the local community may constitute its population
policy which will supplement state population policy measures, considering the local specific various traditions, values and models
of living. The paper's basic goal is to critically perceive the characteristics, significance and role of local self-governments in the
current population policy of Serbia. Social situation and social policy characteristics in Serbia are analyzed in the context of the
population policy. It is pointed out that poverty, unemployment, the economic crisis, the process of privatization, the issue of system
decentralization and social expectations of the population, as current expressions of transition, all have a consequence on the
demographic development and population policy.
A critical estimation of the activities in the field of population policies which are carried out by local and provincial self-governments
in Serbia in the last decade are brought into focus, with a special review to the activities of provincial and local governments in the
Autonomous Province of Vojvodina. As a result of the analysis it is pointed out that the population and social policy measures have
been separated since the year 2000 and that they have been directed only to stimulating births and not child raising and that solutions
regarding maternity leave brought improvements, however shortened maternity leave for the third child.
The new conception of the population policy brought a whole series of restrictions such as: suspension of aid for newborn essentials;
discontinuance of the right to maternity allowance; abolishing of compensation for preschool expenses for the third child; childrens
allowance lost its population measures character along with considerable tightening of the census and decreasing of amount; the
activities of preschool facilities have been reduced only to an educational function, and the terms for realizing rights to preschool
education for children without parents and children with special needs have been tightened.
The authors point out to the values and principles on which a contemporary population policy of local self-governments in Serbia
should be established, such as: stability of established measures, a clear message on the needs of society, compatibility and not
uniformity with measures of other bodies, compassion and uniformity with aspirations of couples and individuals, respect for the
rights and freedom of man, information availability, equality of birth and raising children in measures. The establishment of
population policy municipality funds is suggested and that local population policy measures are both material and non-material type,
as well as in the form of organizational measures which could use the existing resources in a better way. The municipal assembly
should create organizational suppositions by appointing a Population Policy Commission as its permanent body. The Commission
would propose to the Municipal Assembly to adopt a strategic document the Population Policy Strategy in the municipality. The
Municipality Assembly should adopt the Action Plan for carrying out of the population policy every year, which would define the
measures, bearers, terms and methods of evaluating measures with a plan for the following year. The population policy of the local
self-government should be a constant process which manages, follows and evaluates, which is public and which understands the
engagement of competent people, participation of citizens-volunteers and civil organizations.
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1/2011
godina XLIX
Solarevi, Milica, Branislav S. urev
ETVRI MEUNARODNI SIMPOZIJUM "AKADEMIK BERISLAV BETA BERI" ODRIVI REGIONALNODEMOGRAFSKI RAZVOJ
105-108
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrt/ komentar
broj 1/2011
godina XLIX
Nikitovi, Vladimir
DEVETA KONFERENCIJA ITALIJANSKOG DRUTVA ZA PROUAVANJE STANOVNITVA
109-112
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2011
godina XLIX
Sabgayda, T. P, A. E. Ivanova, V. G. Semenova, G. N. Evdokushkina

AVOIDABLE MORTALITY IN THE RUSSIAN REGIONS
1-23
: , , ,
,
Key words.: avoidable mortality, preventable causes of death, health care system, the regional heterogeneity of
mortality, Russia

,
,
.
1989-2009 . ,
-10.
, , ,
5-64 .
. ,
5-64 38 ,
.
8 , 1994 . 80%
. 2009
, 1,3 1,7
. 40% .

. , ,
- , .
The current trends of avoidable mortality, which is an integral indicator of health system performance, were analyzed. The paper discusses the
regional heterogeneity of levels and trends in avoidable mortality in the Russian Federation. Also, it contains the analysis of impact of the
financial costs of public health on avoidable mortality in regions with different levels of economic development.
The last 20-years period was studied, which includes a stage of crisis as well as a social recovery phase. The official data of the State
Statistics Committee were analyzed. In Russia, all death cases are registered in accordance to the international classification ICD-10.
Special computer program summarizes death cases from preventable causes, and calculates the standardized rates for the population
aged from 5 to 64 years. The old European standard of population age structure is used. Estimates of avoidable mortality were made
in accordance with the European approach, under which avoidable mortality accumulates deaths of persons aged from 5 to 64 years
due to 34 causes and 4 classes of causes. These 38 causes are divided into 3 groups according to three levels of diseases prevention.
The level of avoidable mortality in the different regions varies up to 8 times. That is comparable to the difference between Russia and
the countries of European Union in 1994. This gap is due to the coexistence of different stages of epidemiological development
among the regions in Russia.
When death rates increased, it is shown that mortality from causes which are preventable by measures of primary and tertiary
prevention increased to a greater extent than mortality from the causes which depend from measures of secondary prevention.
Therein, the largest growth of observed mortality was due to low quality of medical care in case of males (group 3), and due to
causes which are preventable by measures of primary prevention in case of females (group 1). When mortality was reduced, the rates
of change for causes in groups 1 and 3 were approximately the same for both sexes. Avoidable mortality due to late detection of
malignant tumors (group 2) has been changed the least.
Preventable component defines over 80% of the regional differences in death rates. In 2009, the level of avoidable mortality differed
more than fourfold among different regions of the Russia. Similarly, the difference in the level of unavoidable mortality was 1.3-fold
and 1.7-fold, for males and females respectively. Proportion of deaths from preventable causes in the total sum of death cases varies
from 40% till 75%.
Funding for comprehensive programs of public health to a greater extent stimulates the reduction in mortality from preventable
causes of the first group. Mortality connected with quality of medical care is more determined by socio-political situation in the
country than by regional health care expenses.
Based on these results, it is concluded that the action plans to reduce mortality in Russia must have a strong regional specificity,
different targets and indicators. Using the proportion of preventable causes, it is possible to separate the regions into groups with
different ratios of death determinants, which, therefore, require different approaches to reduce mortality.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2011
godina XLIX
Luki, Vesna
DNEVNE MIGRACIJE RADNIKA U SISTEMU NASELJA SRBIJE
COMMUTING IN THE SETTLEMENT SYSTEM OF SERBIA
25-50
K.r.: dnevne migracije, aktivno stanovnitvo, sistem naselja, Srbija
K.w.: commuting, economically active population, settlement system, Serbia
Prostorna organizacija mree naselja okvir je za odvijanje unutranjih migracionih procesa. Osnovno polazite ovog rada je da su
dnevne migracije jedan od oblika interakcije izmeu razliitih tipova naselja. U radu se istie znaaj prouavanja na nivou naselja za
analizu demografskih procesa. Cilj rada je da se osvetli integracija izmeu razliitih naselja i da se ukae na koji nain se mogu
istraiti i analizirati dnevni migracioni tokovi koristei postojee izvore, zarad boljeg razumevanja veza izmeu migracija i naselja, i
stvaranja bolje osnove za razvojne politike i strategije. U tom smislu, istraen je smer dnevnih migracija radnika u Srbiji, te veze
izmeu obima i strukture tih tokova, i tipa i populacione veliine naselja u Srbiji. Pored prostorne dimenzije razmatran je i
socioekonomski aspekt dnevnih migracija, te istraivanje osvetljava specifinosti polne, obrazovne i sektorske strukture ove pojave
sa akcentom na prostorno-funkcionalnu i demografsku neravnoteu u mrei naselja. Razmatrana je i veza izmeu dnevnih migracija i
migracija sa ishodom promene mesta prebivalita u svetlu hipoteza dekoncentracije stanovnitva i regionalnog restrukturiranja.
Dodatno obraeni podaci Popisa stanovnitva iz 2002. godine omoguili su ukrtanje obeleja o mestu stanovanja i mestu rada sa
strukturom dnevnih migranata, odnosno utvrivanje dominantnih smerova dnevnih migracija aktivnog stanovnitva prema polu,
stepenu obrazovanja i sektoru ekonomske delatnosti rada, a u okviru hijerahije naselja. Interpretacija glavnih rezultata analize
upuuje da postoji jasna veza izmeu hijerarhijske strukture naselja i putanja dnevnih migracija u Srbiji.
Territorial organization of settlement system is the framework for internal migration flows. The purpose of this paper is to consider
the relation between commuting and the settlement structure. Commuting patterns and characteristics of commuters in Serbia are
relatively unknown and insufficiently researched, and as such, can not be adequately used in creation of development strategies and
public policies which would include commuters' issues. It has been emphasized the importance of reserach of commuting ties
between different settlements and also pointed out in which way commuting flows could be researched and analyzed by using
existing sources, due to better understanding of connections between migrations and settlements. Commuting patterns of workers in
Serbia and interrelations between the scope and the structure of commuting flows, as well as the type and population size of
settlements in Serbia have been examined. Apart from territorial dimension of commuting phenomenon, socio-economic component
of commuting population has also been considered. The use of costumised tabulations from 2002 Census have enabled us to examine
all types of commuting and emphasise dominant directions of commuting flows of economically active population according to
gender, level of education and sector of economic activity, within the settlement hierarchy. Workers have been classified into seven
groups according to place of residence and place of work. The findings reveal there is a clear connection between the hierarchy
structure and commuting patterns in Serbia. Further, we find some evidence that only 9,5% of workers commuters have been
working in the settlement of the same population size and type such as their residing settlement. Commuting flows within Serbias
settlement system point out to certain variations when looking at individual categories of population, but it can be concluded that
there is general trend of commuting "upwards" within the hierarchy of settlements.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2011
godina XLIX
Pekovi, Drinka
EFEKTI MIGRACIONIH TOKOVA NA TRITE RADA IMIGRACIONIH ZEMALJA: PRIMER EU NAKON
PROIRENJA 2004. GODINE
EFFECTS OF MIGRATION FLOWS ON THE HOST COUNTRY LABOUR MARKET FOLLOWING THE 2004 EU
ENLARGEMENT
51-71
K.r.: migracioni tokovi, trite rada, Evropska unija, nezaposlenost, zarade
K.w.: migration flows, labour market, European Union, unemployment, wage
Predmet istraivanja ovog rada jesu efekti migracionih tokova na nezaposlenost, mogunost zapoljavanja i visinu zarada domaih
radnika imigracionih zemalja. Analiza je usmerena na ocenu efekata migracionih tokova radne snage iz zemalja Centralne i Istone
Evrope koje su pristupile Evropskoj uniji 2004. godine na trite rada starih lanica. Posebna panja usmerena je na analizu uticaja
migracionih tokova iz novih lanica EU na pokazatelje trita rada Velike Britanije i Irske, zemalja koje nisu primenjivale tranzcione
mere prema imigrantima iz novih lanica. Analiza je izvrena za period od 2004. do 2008. godine u kom je ostvaren najvei priliv
imigranata. Rezultati pokazuju da je umeren priliv imigranata iz novih lanica imao pozitivan uticaj na trite rada EU.
Kvalifikaciona i sektorska struktura imigranata ukazuje na njihovu komplementarnu ulogu na tritu rada. Efekti migracionih tokova
na rast stope nezaposlenosti nii su od predvienih uz prisustvo neznatnog smanjenja visine zarada domaih radnika. Visoka stopa
privrednog rasta Velike Britanije i Irske u posmatranom periodu uzrokovala je izostanak negativnog efekata imigracije na stopu
nezaposlenosti i pojavu malih pozitivnih efekata na visinu zarada domaih radnika.
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This paper examines the effects of migration flows on unemployment, employment probabilities and native wages. The analysis
contains the evaluation of migration effects of labour from Central and Eastern European countries which became European Union
member states in 2004, on old member's labour market. Particular emphasis was placed on evidence of the migration flows impact
from the new EU member states on the labour market performances in the United Kingdom and Ireland, the countries which did not
restrict the access of new member immigrants to their labour markets. The analysis was realized for the period of 2004 to 2008 when
the migration inflow was the largest.
The empirical literature suggests that the migration effects on unemployment and employment probabilities of natives are very small.
The young and low skilled native workers are more affected by migration flows than other groups of workers. Also, most empirical
studies show small negative wage effects of immigration. Although the results of public researches and econometric studies have
shown the modest potential labour migration flows from new member states and the small potential effects on EU-15 labour market,
twelve out of fifteen old member states decided to apply transitional arrangements.
The evidence presented in the report of the European Commission pointed out positive EU labour market impact of modest inflow of
immigrants from new member states. Sectoral and skill composition of immigrants from new member states suggests their
complementary role on EU labour market. The majority of immigrants from new member states are men, aged between 18 and 34,
medium-level of education. Most immigrants have been employed in service sector, manufacturing and construction. The high
employment rate of immigrants from new member states (78%) and low unemployment rate (6%) in the post-enlargement period
have confirmed positive migration impact on EU labour market performances. The unemployment effects of migration have been
smaller than projected. The migration flows from new member states have resulted in negligible increase in EU-15 unemployment
rate by 0.02-0.04% and decrease in native wages by 0.08%.
In the second part of this paper the migration impact on labour market of the United Kingdom and Ireland is examined. The selective
application of transitional measures across EU resulted in substantial diversion of migration flows toward the United Kingdom and
Ireland. In the period of 2004-2008, Ireland accepted 448.000 immigrants from new member states and in the United Kingdom
926.000 immigrants are registered in WRS, eight times more than was projected. However, the large migration flows from new
member states did not result in substantial disturbances on the labour market. In Ireland the evidence for the existence of
displacement native workers by immigrants was found in the hotel and restaurants sector and in manufacturing sector, but there was
no consequence in increase of native unemployment. The high economic growth rate in Ireland and the United Kingdom caused the
absence of unemployment effects of migration and the appearance of small positive effects on native wages. Research results show
that a one percent increase the share of immigrants from new member states in labour force causes negligible increase in native
wages by 0,0013% in Ireland and 0,246% in the United Kingdom.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2011
godina XLIX
Nikitovi, Vladimir
FUNCTIONAL DATA ANALYSIS IN FORECASTING SERBIAN FERTILITY
FUNKCIONALNA ANALIZA VREMENSKIH SERIJA U PROGNOZIRANJU FERTILITETA SRBIJE
73-89
K.r.: population forecasting, functional approach, fertility, Serbia
K.w.: prognoze stanovnitva, funkcionalna analiza, fertilitet, Srbija
A new approach, combining functional data analysis and principal components decomposition in order to forecasting demographic
rates, introduced recently by Hyndman and his associates, is tested on official data series of Serbian age-specific fertility rates
available for period 1950-2009. The original concept of the method with its extensions and improvements is applied to regionspecific data for the country (Central Serbia and Vojvodina). One of the most important benefits of the method reflected in
confirmation that is essentially to model and forecast more than one principal component in order to adequately address sources of
variation in fertility. Similarly, modelling and forecasting fertility rates with regards to age and not total fertility rates shows how
important it is for the recognized tendency of postponing childbearing in Serbia to be included in coefficients of functional time
series. Besides, the method is based completely on evaluation of historical data, without subjective views of forecasters having to be
taken into account. Coherent functional product-ratio forecasts of two regions proved to be highly convergent on the long-term not
allowing for outliers to contaminate the forecast.
Novi pristup prognoziranju demografskih stopa, koji kombinuje funkcionalnu analizu vremenskih serija i metod glavnih
komponenata, nedavno predstavljen od strane Hyndman-a i njegovih saradnika, testiran je na zvaninim vremenskim serijama stopa
fertiliteta specifinih prema starosti za Srbiju u periodu 1950-2009. Originalni koncept metoda, sa poboljanjima i ekstenzijama
objavljivanim naknadno, primenjen je na podatke za Centralnu Srbiju odnosno Vojvodinu. Jedna od najvanijih prednosti metoda
ogleda se u potvrdi injenice da je bitno modelirati i prognozirati vie od jedne glavne komponente da bi se adekvatno obuhvatili
izvori varijacije u fertilitetu. Slino, modeliranje i prognoziranje stopa fertiliteta specifinih prema starosti umesto ukupne stope
fertiliteta ukazuje koliko je vano da prepoznata tendencija odlaganja raanja u Srbiji bude obuhvaena u koeficijentima
funckionalnih vremenskih serija. Pored toga, metod se u potpunosti zasniva na oceni istorijskih podataka, uopte ne zahtevajui
subjektivni upliv prognostiara. Konano, koherentne prognoze fertiliteta dva regiona, zasnovane na metodu geometrijske sredine
izmeu funkcionalnih serija, potvrdile su oekivanu izrazitu konvergenciju na dui rok ne dozvoljavajui uticaj nestandardnih
opservacija.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2011
godina XLIX
Mari, Mia
SOCIO-DEMOGRAFSKI INIOCI I UPOTREBA PSIHOAKTIVNIH SUPSTANCI U ADOLESCENCIJI
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS AND SUBSTANCE USE IN ADOLESCENCE
91-113
K.r.: adolescencija, socio-demografski faktori, cigarete, alkohol, ilegalne psihoaktivne supstance
K.w.: adolescence, socio-demographic factors, psychoactive substances, cigarettes, alcohol, illegal substances
Pojava rizinih ponaanja karakteristina je za adolescentski uzrast. Od svih oblika rizinog ponaanja u adolescenciji, naroito se
izdvaja upotreba psihoaktivnih supstanci cigareta, alkohola i ilegalnih psihoaktivnih sredstava, kako po uestalosti upotrebe, tako i
zbog posledica koje ostavlja na razvoj mladih. Ovakva ponaanja kod adolescenata sve vie dobijaju epidemioloki karakter, pre
svega zahvaljujui karakteristikama drutvenog konteksta u kome mladi odrastaju.
Osnovni cilj istraivanja, koje je sprovedeno u okviru doktorske disertacije autora, jeste utvrivanje odnosa relevantnih sociodemografskih inilaca: pola, uzrasta, kolskog uspeha, materijalnog statusa i mesta stanovanja ispitanika, sa pojavom upotrebe tri
vrste psihoaktivnih sredstava cigareta, alkohola i droga kod adolescenata. Uzorak pripada neklinikoj populaciji, i inilo ga je 529
adolescenata, uenika 2. i 4. razreda srednje kole. Podaci su prikupljeni uz pomo Skale upotrebe PAS kod adolescenata, koja je
konstruisana za potrebe ovog istraivanja, kao i pomou seta pitanja namenjenih registrovanju socio-demografskih varijabli.
Dobijeni podaci pokazuju povezanost tri ispitivane socio-demografske varijable sa pojavom upotrebe psihoaktivnih sredstava u
adolescenciji, a to su pol, uzrast i kolski uspeh ispitanika. Pol je povezan sa upotrebom alkohola i droga, pa je tako dobijeno da su
adolescenti mukog pola skloniji upotrebi alkohola i droga. Uzrast je povezan sa upotrebom sve tri vrste psihoaktivnih sredstava
stariji adolescenti su skloniji korienju cigareta, alkohola i droga. I kolski uspeh ispitanika povezan je sa upotrebom sve tri
kategorije psihoaktivnih sredstava sa padom uspeha raste verovatnoa upotrebe sve tri vrste psihoaktivnih supstanci u
adolescenciji. Mogunost primene nalaza ogleda se na polju primarne prevencije i zatite zdravlja mladih.
The emergence of risky behavior is characteristic in adolescence. Of all forms of risky behavior in adolescence, the use of
psychoactive substances cigarettes, alcohol and illegal psychoactive substances particularly stand out, because of the frequency and
degree of prevalence of use, and because of the impact that they have on youth development in this sensitive stage of growing up.
Unfortunately, today we are witnessing the fact that such behavior in adolescents has gained an increasingly epidemic character
mainly due to the characteristics of the social context in which young people are growing up.
The main objective of this research, conducted in the framework of the doctoral dissertation of the author, was determining relations
between relevant socio-demographic factors: gender, age, school success, financial status and place of residence of respondents, with
the appearance and intensity of use of three types of psychoactive substances cigarettes, alcohol and illegal psychoactive substances
among the general population of adolescents. The sample represents non-clinical young population, and it consists of 529
adolescents, students of the 2nd and 4th class of secondary school (17 and 18 years old). The data was collected by using Scale use of
PAS (psychoactive substances) in adolescents, which was designed for the purpose of this research, as well as using a set of
questions intended for the registration of socio-demographic variables. Respondents filled in questionnaires in groups, during the
school lessons.
The data show a relationship between the three studied socio-demographic variables with the occurrence and degree of use of
psychoactive substances in the adolescence period, such as gender, age and school success of the respondents. As regards gender of
respondents associated with the occurrence and degree of alcohol and illegal substance use in adolescents, male adolescents more
likely use alcohol and illegal psychoactive substances. Age of respondents associated with the use of all three types of psychoactive
substances in adolescence, found that older adolescents were more likely to use cigarettes, alcohol and illegal psychoactive
substances. School success of the respondents is associated with the occurrence and degree of use of all three tested categories of
psychoactive substances cigarettes, alcohol and drugs, and the obtained findings indicate that with the decline in school success, the
prevalence of all three types of psychoactive substances increases in adolescence. Besides the theoretical significance, the
applicability of the findings is reflected in the field of primary prevention and health protection of youth.
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikaz
broj 2/2011
godina XLIX
Filipovi, Marko
VESNA LUKI "DEMOGRAFSKI RAZVITAK I FUNKCIONALNA STRUKTURA PANEVA", BEOGRAD, 2011.
115-119
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2012
godina L
Matkovi, Gordana
DUGOTRAJNA NEGA STARIH U SRBIJI STANJE, POLITIKE I DILEME
LONG-TERM CARE OF THE ELDERLY CURRENT STATUS, POLICIES AND DILEMMAS
1-18
Kljune rei: starenje, dugotrajna nega, naknada za negu i pomo, pomo u kui, javni rashodi za dugotrajnu negu
Keywords: ageing, long-term care, attendance allowance, home care services, long term care, public expenditures
Obezbeenje dugotrajne nege za sve vei broj starih, u uslovima oekivanog produenja ivota, i to ne samo u dobrom zdravlju ve i
sa invaliditetom, svakako je jedno od pitanja sa kojim e Srbija morati da se suoi u kontekstu sve izraenijeg starenja stanovnitva i
promenjenih porodinih modela. Elementi dravnog sistema za dugotrajnu negu u Srbiji su novane naknade, naknada i dodatak za
negu i pomo drugog lica, i nenovane, prvenstveno u vidu obezbeenja institucionalnog smetaja i usluga u zajednici. Zdravstvene
usluge dugotrajne nege su tek u procesu uspostavljanja, osim kunog leenja u Beogradu. Uz pretpostavku da svi stari primaju samo
jednu vrstu naknada, ukupan broj korisnika bi iznosio priblino 90.000 ili preko 7% starijih od 65 godina u Srbiji. Pod uslovom savrene
targetiranosti, naknadama i uslugama bi bile zadovoljene potrebe samo najugroenijih starih lica.
Rashodi drave za dugotrajnu negu se veoma grubo mogu proceniti na 0,55% BDP, od ega najvie na novane naknade (0,37%).
Ovi su rashodi znaajno nii nego u EU, gde su 2004. godine u proseku iznosili 0,9% BDPa.
Odgovor drave na potrebe starih za dugotrajnom negom koji je do sada uspostavljen svakako je nesistematian i nesistemski.
Povezanost izmeu pojedinih segmenata koji se mogu smatrati elementima sistema dugotrajne nege nije uspostavljena, a nije ni
dovoljno istraena. Posebno se kao otvorena nameu pitanja adekvatnosti novanih naknada i njihova povezanost sa uslugama,
pospeivanja daljeg razvoja usluga u zajednici i suoavanje sa jazom izmeu potreba i mogunosti.
In Serbia, the long-term care as a system does not actually exist. One part of the system is regulated through cash benefits, one part
through institutional social care and community-based social services, and one part is just being established under the health care
system. The linkages among these segments are not strong and there is insufficient awareness of the need to regard the different parts
of the system as being interdependent and interconnected.
According to the different surveys, home care is needed for the daily functioning of more than 80,000 elderly people, especially for
around 27,000 of those who are completely immobile. More than 300 thousand elderly persons have indicated that they are in need of
some type of self-care support.
By tradition, elderly people in Serbia rely primarily on family support. Some are getting the state support as well. Research shows
that 62 thousand elderly persons (5 percent) receive attendance allowance; 9,000 elderly are accommodated in institutions (0.7
percent), while 11.7 thousand (1 percent) persons received some type of support through home care community based services. In
addition, in Belgrade there are also 2,000 elderly who are beneficiaries of medical and palliative care at home. The government
expenditures for these purposes can be very roughly estimated at 0.55 percent of GDP, largely for cash benefits (0.37 percent).
Considered over a medium and longer term, the government expenditures on long-term care in Serbia will inevitably increase
significantly, primarily due to an increase in the number and share of elderly people and the increase in additional life years spent in
ill health or in need of assistance. An increase in the expenditures will also be influenced by a change in the family models and the
increasing number of elderly that will be living alone, as well as the diminishing possibilities for reliance on the closest family
members, especially due to emigration flows both at local and national levels. Finally, it is important not to neglect the effect of
emulating more developed countries, as well as the EUs pressure to adequately respond to the needs of the elderly.
Therefore, the state and society must promptly prepare a systematic, comprehensive, timely and fiscally responsible response. This
response must recognize the capacities of all stakeholders, from family to state and non-state and match the capacities with the
appropriate roles in the system of long-term care provision.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2012
godina L
Zdravkovi, Aleksandar, Ivana Domazet, Vladimir Nikitovi
UTICAJ DEMOGRAFSKOG STARENJA NA ODRIVOST JAVNIH FINANSIJA U SRBIJI
IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING ON SUSTAINABILITY OF PUBLIC FINANCE IN SERBIA
19-44
Kljune rei: demografsko starenje, projekcije stanovnitva, javne finansije, penzijski izdaci, Srbija
Keywords: demographic ageing, population projection, public finance, pension expenditure, Serbia
Starenje stanovnitva je globalni fenomen bez presedana u istoriji oveanstva sa implikacijama u svim sferama ivota. Sa
ekonomskog aspekta, starenje stanovnitva se namee i kao jedan od najveih izazova modernog vremena, jer se kao posledica takvih
globalnih demografskih tendencija javlja dugorono uveanje broja penzionera, to negativno utie na odrivost javnih penzijskih
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sistema finansiranih po principu meugeneracijske solidarnosti, koji predstavljaju stub penzijskih sistema evropskih drava. U ovom
radu, analizirana je problematika demografskog starenja i penzionih sistema u kontekstu odrivosti javnih finansija u Srbiji. Osnovni
cilj analize predstavlja dugorono projektovanje penzijskih izdataka kao udela u bruto domaem proizvodu (BDP), to je indirektno
postignuto preko modeliranja prosenih penzijskih izdataka, jer ova varijabla u sebi inkorporira i rast mase penzijskih izdataka i rast
broja penzionera kao posledice demografskih trendova i bolje reflektuje stvarni rast rashoda za penzije. Na osnovu ulaznih
parametara u modelu (projekcije realnog rasta BDP-a, projekcije radno neaktivne populacije starosti 65 i vie godina, te pretpostavki
o stopi rasta prosenog penzijskog izdatka), formirana su tri scenarija penzijskih izdataka (kao procenta BDP-a) za period 2010-2050.
Rezultati analize ukazuju da postoji fiskalni prostor da se u dugom roku ostvari realni rast penzija uz smanjenje ukupnih izdataka za
penzije u bruto domaem proizvodu, ali da predloeni nain indeksacije penzija u okviru penzijskih reformi moe biti problematian
u ostvarivanju ovih ciljeva.
Population ageing is a global phenomenon without precedent in the history of humanity having implications in all facets of life. From
an economic point of view, population ageing is certainly one of the biggest challenges of modern time. A consequence of these
global demographic tendencies reflected in growing number of pensioners which negatively affects sustainability of public pension
systems financed by the principle of intergenerational solidarity (Pay-As-You-Go) - widely represented in public pension schemes of
European countries.
In this paper, impact of demographic ageing on pension systems is analyzed in the context of sustainability of public finance in
Serbia in the period 2010-2050. Although the comparative analysis of the pension expenditure share in gross domestic product
(GDP) does not point to significant differences between Serbia and the countries in the neighborhood and the European Union, the
growth trend of subsidizing the Pension Fund from the government budget endangers medium-term sustainability of the public
pension system in Serbia, bearing in mind that the implementation of measures proposed in pension reforms can be valorized only in
the long run.
The main objective of the analysis is projecting long-term pension expenditure as a share of GDP. The projections were formed
indirectly by modeling the average pension expenditure, because this variable incorporates both growth in the total pension
expenditure and growth in the number of pensioners as a result of demographic trends, and better reflects the actual growth of
pension expenditure. For the purposes of the analysis, in addition to the projection of real GDP growth, size of the inactive
population aged 65 and over, as the main contingent of the pension system users and the total number of pensioners, was projected by
means of stochastic cohort component methodology. Based on these projections and assumptions about the growth rate of average
pension expenditure (three scenarios), the projections of total pension expenditure (as a percentage of GDP) are produced for the
period 2010-2050.
The results indicate that the growth rate of pension expenditure over the past few years is unsustainable in the long run. However,
there is fiscal space for continuous real growth of pensions that does not jeopardize the budget deficit on the medium term, and leads
to long-term reduction of the share of pension expenditures in GDP. The proposed change would not affect sustainability of the
pension system and consequently public finance in Serbia, even in completely certain circumstances of significant increase in the
number of elderly and their pressure on the workforce. In this context, critical review of the current government approach to the
pension growth dynamics was given from the perspective of medium-term sustainability of pension system, which resulted in
appropriate recommendations.
Generally, the intent of the Government of the Republic of Serbia on the indexation of pensions represent a good solution long term,
but the premise of increasing pensions for a part of real GDP growth, if it is higher than 4%, is subject to criticism from the point of
view of medium-term sustainability. The crisis cycle of the Serbian economy, similarly to that on a global level, has its maximum
and minimum phase. After a maximum of the crisis is reached, there should be a few years of economic stagnation followed by
gradual, and then by faster economic growth. Due to the projection of a relatively higher rate of economic growth and GDP in a
future economic recovery, there is an increased risk that such a growth could be followed by sudden jumps in the growth of pensions,
which could result in unsustainable funding of pension system. Therefore, the Government should impose some limitations in terms
of the maximum increase in pension per annum in case of intensive and high economic growth.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2012
godina L
Devedi, Mirjana, Jelena Stojilkovi
NOVO POIMANJE STAROSTI PROSPEKTIVNA STAROST
NEW CONCEPT OF AGE(ING) PROSPECTIVE AGE
45-68
Kljune rei: starenje stanovnitva, prospektivna starost, redifinisanje starenja, oekivano trajanje ivota
Keywords: population aging, prospective age, redefinition of aging, life expectancy
Dok je proli vek bio vek porasta svetskog stanovnitva, prema tvrdnjama demografa, XXI e biti vek starenja stanovnitva.
Nasuprot rastuem interesovanju za ovaj fenomen, koncepti kojima se definie starenje stanovnitva su ostali stagnantni. Cilj ovog
rada je da se u nau literaturu uvede pojam "prospektivna starost" kao dinamika kategorija na koju utiu sve vie drutveno-istorijski
uslovi, a ne samo bioloki kao u tradicionalnoj definiciji starenja. Radovima Sandersona i Scherbova otvaraju se nove metodoloke
mogunosti kada je izuavanje populacijskog starenja u pitanju, jer se koristi biometrijski, a ne hronoloki pristup. Tako se
"prospektivni prag" definie kao starost kada oekivano trajanje ivota pada ispod 15 godina, pa su tokom razrade ove ideje pomenuti
autori konstruisali, tanije redefinisali, tri pokazatelja demografske starosti zasnovana na prospektivnim godinama: (prospektivni)
udeo starih lica, (prospektivnu) medijalnu starost i (prospektivni) koeficijent starosne zavisnosti starih. Uvaavanje prospektivne
starosti u izraunavanju demografskog starenja ukazuje na proces podmlaivanja svetskog stanovnitva sve do 2035. godine, dui i
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intenzivniji od onog koji definie proporcija starih. U Srbiji je starost iskazana preko prospektivnog praga uvek bila via nego preko
retrospektivnih godina, odnosno udeo stanovnika sa oekivanim trajanjem ivota kraim od 15 godina je konstantno bio vei od
udela stanovnika starijih od 65 godina. Prema prospektivnom kriterijumu, razlike izmeu mukaraca i ena skoro da ne postoje, tako
da se dovodi u pitanje i iroko prihvaena feminizacija starih. Prospektivne godine su neophodna dopuna javnim politikama, posebno
penzionom i zdravstvenom sistemu, jer u kombinaciji sa tradicionalnim pristupima mogu da stvore pravedniju raspodelu za sve
starije i mlae graane.
While the last century was the century of world population growth, according to demographers, the XXI century will be century of
population aging. Statistics undoubtedly show that number of elderly will continue its growth in the future. If old age is seen as
period of life with reduced physical and mental capabilities and increased disability, and demographic aging as increase of dependent
population, trends are quite disturbing, at least in certain societal segments. In developed countries, this population category is no
longer treated as passive or as a "burden of society" and efforts are made for better social inclusion of older people. In contrast to
growing interest in this phenomenon, the concepts that define the aging of the population remained stagnant. The aim of this paper is
to introduce into domestic literature the term "prospective age" as a dynamic category which is more affected with socio-historical
conditions, not only with biological as traditional definition of aging suggested. Papers written by Sanderson and Scherbov offer new
methodological options for study of population aging, because it takes into account the biometric rather than chronological approach.
Calculation of prospective years is a simple operation that requires pair of the same number of remained life expectancy from life
tables for two different periods (the year of concern is index, and the one we are comparing with is standard year), so that phrase "40s
is the new 30s" or "70s the new 60s" gets scientific foundation. Average remaining years of life represent a realistic indicator
suggesting increased capacity, activity and vitality of individuals, which is due to accepted demographic parameters still considered
old. Prospective threshold is defined as the age when life expectancy falls below 15 years (it is subjective choice made by
Sanderson and Scherbov, which is also used in this paper) and during the elaboration of these ideas three demographic indicators was
constructed, redefined more precisely, based on prospective age: (prospective) share of the elderly, (prospective) median age and
(prospective) old age dependency ratio. With respect to the remaining years of life in the calculation of demographic aging, worlds
population will be in rejuvenation process by 2035, longer and more intense than defined by proportion of the elderly. Prospective
approach found that longer life expectancy in developing countries is not only a result of the decrease in infant and child mortality,
but also the decrease of the old population mortality. Data used in this paper are from period life tables and censuses, for period
19532010. Prospective age threshold in Serbia was always higher than retrospective age (60,17 in 1953 .and 63,15 in 2010. for total
population) , or the proportion of people with a life expectancy less than 15 years has consistently been higher than the share of
people older than 65 years (17.86% vs. 16.92% in 2010). According to prospective criteria, differences between men and women
almost do not existent, so that it calls into question the widely accepted feminization of the elderly. The same conclusion stands when
we discuss (prospective) median age, population is older using prospective (47,15 years) than traditional (41.41) indicator in 2010,
also, compared with rest of the region or with more developed countries, prospective median age is higher in Serbia. Also,
prospective old-age dependecy ratio is higher than convetional one during analyzed period. Prospective concept and amendments are
necessary in public policy, especially pension and health care system, because in combination with traditional approaches can create
more justified distribution for older and younger generations.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2012
godina L
ivojinovi, Dragica
PRINCIP JEDNAKOSTI I PRAVO NA ASISTIRANU PROKREACIJU
THE PRINCIPLE OF EQUALITY AND THE RIGHT TO ASSISTED PROCREATION
69-88
Kljune rei: princip jednakosti, humana asistirana prokreacija, ljudska prava, diskriminacija, ogranienja prava na
asistiranu prokreaciju
Keywords: equality principle, human assisted reproduction, human rights, discrimination, limited rights to assisted
reproduction
Princip jednakosti je temelj izgradnje celokupnog sistema ljudskih prava, a njegova implementacija je pokazatelj potovanja svakog
prava ponaosob. Na njemu treba da poiva i ureenje prava na asistiranu prokreaciju kao jednog od segmenata reproduktivnih prava.
U radu se razmatra pojam asistirane prokreacije i ukazuje na potrebu proirenja dostupnosti njenih metoda u zavisnosti od pravnih,
politikih i drutvenih reformi koje su s kraja XX veka pogodile brak, porodicu i partnerstvo uopte. Bavei se pravom na asistiranu
prokreaciju, autor postavlja reproduktivna prava u kontekst drugih ljudskih prava sa kojima ona stoje u odnosu meuzavisnosti i
meupovezanosti. Nalazi da se ogranienja prava na asistiranu prokreaciju obrazlau potrebom zatite najboljeg interesa deteta i
pozivanjem na razloge drutvene celishodnosti, odnosno kupovinom drutvenog mira na sadanjem nivou razvoja drutvene svesti.
Najzad, analizirajui postojea ogranienja ponaosob, zakljuuje da u njima ima elementa diskriminacije po osnovu porodinog
statusa, seksualne orijentacije i pola, pa predlae njihovu reformu jer se aktuelna zakonska reenja teko mogu braniti bilo sa pravnog
ili etikog stanovita.
The principal of equality is the foundation of developing an entire system of human rights, and its implementation represents the
standard of respecting each right individually. With these premises as a starting point, the subject of the authors interests is whether
the right to assisted reproduction, as a segment of reproductive rights, is regulated in conformity with the equality principal. In order
to reach an answer, the author examines the concept of human assisted reproduction and analyzes the application of reproductive
technologies in the light of legal, social and political reforms which affected marriages, the family and partnership in general at the
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end of the 20th century. The author finds that the most significant ones among them are the emancipation of women, recognition and
legal formation of same sex unions and statements prohibiting discrimination based on sexual orientation. Furthermore, by
considering the right to assisted reproduction in the context of other human rights with which it is interconnected and interdependent
(the right to life, right to privacy, the right to a family life, health rights, childrens rights), the author finds there are no absolute,
unlimited rights in the contemporary system of human rights, but that they inevitably have certain restrictions.
Since the same limitation attribute also characterizes the right to assisted reproduction, the author further researches whether there is
discrimination, positive or negative, towards the existing forms of limitations to this right. The following forms of limitations have
been singled out, as the key ones for this analysis: request for (non)marital status and heterosexual orientation, sexual affiliation and
age and the accessibility (prohibition) of applying certain methods of assisted reproduction which are primarily in the function of
eliminating female sterility. The author concludes that there are elements of discrimination based on family status, sexual orientation,
age and sexual affiliation. The author finds that emphasizing the need to protect the best interests of children, as a crucial reason for
justifying their introduction, can hardly be defended both legally and ethically. The author believes that the basis of limitation lies in
the reasons of social suitability, namely buying social peace at the present level of development of social conscience. By appealing to
the principal of equality, the author intercedes in favor of accessibility to the right for assisted reproduction under equal conditions
and limitations for each user, and prohibiting discrimination on any basis.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 1/2012
godina L
Marinkovi, Ivan
UZROCI SMRTI U SRBIJI OD SREDINE 20. VEKA
CAUSES OF DEATH IN SERBIA SINCE THE MID-20TH CENTURY
89-106
Kljune rei: mortalitet, uzroci smrti, Srbija, period 1950-2009, optine
Keywords: mortality, causes of death, Serbia, 1950-2009, municipality
Struktura vodeih uzroka smrti u Srbiji se za pola veka znatno promenila. Bolesti, koje su nekoliko decenija ranije predstavljale
glavnu pretnju za stanovnitvo, sada su na nivou statistike greke. U prvom delu rada naliziraju se podaci o smrtnosti stanovnitva
po uzroku smrti za stanovnitvo Srbije (bez Kosova i Metohije) od 1950. do 2009. godine. Odabrani su vodei uzroci smrti, koji su
uestvovali ili uestvuju u ukupnoj smrtnosti stanovnitva sa vie od 1%, odnosno gde su apsolutni godinji iznosi vei od 1.000
umrlih. Ukupno se poredi deset uzroka smrti. Drugi deo podrazumeva detaljniju analizu koja se odnosi na podatke od 1975. godine
za tri najvanija uzroka smrti u Srbiji. U radu je prvenstveno korien demografski metod analize podataka. Izraunate su stope
smrtnosti na 100.000 stanovnika za odreene uzroke smrti i specifine stope po starosti i polu za vodee uzroke smrti, kao i njihov
udeo u ukupnoj smrtnosti stanovnitva. Osnovni cilj rada je da se ukae na vezu starosno-polne strukture stanovnitva i osnovnih
uzroka smrti, ali i na nedovoljnu prosveenost stanovnitva, naroito u odreenim delovima Republike, kao i na znaaj redovnog
lekarskog pregleda, usled ega su vrednosti oekivanog trajanja ivota pri ivoroenju na dosta niem nivou nego to je to kod
najrazvijenijih zemalja sveta.
The structure of the leading causes of death in Serbia has considerably changed in the last half century. Diseases which presented the
main threat to the population a few decades ago are now at the level of a statistical error. On the one side are causes which drastically
changed their share in total mortality in this time interval, while others have shown stability and persistence among the basic causes
of death. Acute infectious diseases "have been replaced" with chronic noninfectious diseases, due to the improvement of general and
health conditions. One of the consequences of such changes is increased life expectancy and a larger share of older population which
resulted in cardiovascular diseases and tumors to dominate more and more in total mortality.
Convergent trends in the structure of the leading causes of death in Serbia from the middle of the 20th century are the reasons why
there are considerably fewer diseases and causes with a significant rate in total population mortality at the beginning of the 21st
century. During the 1950s, there were five groups of diseases and causes which participated individually with more than 10% of
population mortality (infectious diseases, heart and circulatory diseases, respiratory diseases, some perinatal conditions and
undefined states) while at the beginning of the new century there were only two such groups (cardiovascular diseases and tumors).
Identical trends exist in all European countries, as well as in the rest of the developed world.
The leading causes of death in Serbia are cardiovascular diseases. An average of somewhat over 57.000 people died annually in the
period from 2007 2009, which represents 55.5% of total population mortality. Women are more numerous among the deceased and
this difference is increasing due to population feminization. The most frequent cause of death in Serbia, after heart and circulatory
diseases, are tumors, which caused 21,415 deaths in 2009. Neoplasms are responsible for one fifth of all deaths. Their number has
doubled in three decades, from 9,107 in 1975 to about 20,000 at the beginning of the 21st century, whereby tumors have become the
fastest growing cause of death. Least changes in absolute number of deaths in the last half century were marked among violent
deaths. Observed by gender, men are in average three times more numerous among violent deaths than women. In the middle of the
20th century in Serbia, one third of the deaths caused by violence were younger than 25 and as many as one half were younger than
35 years old. Only one tenth (11%) of total number of violent deaths were from the age group of 65 or older. At the end of the first
decade of the 21st century (2009), the share of population younger than 25 in the total number of violent deaths was decreased four
times (and amounted to 8%). At the same time, the rate of those older than 65 or more quadrupled (amounted to 39%).
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asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrti/ komentar
broj 1/2012
godina L
Stojilkovi, Jelena
VLADIMIR NIKITOVI "DEMOGRAFSKA BUDUNOST SRBIJE: IMIGRACIJA KAO IZVESNOST?",
BEOGRAD, 2010.
107-118
asopis Stanovnitvo
osvrti/ komentar
broj 1/2012
godina L
Ostoji, Ivana
ZBORNIK RADOVA "STANOVNITVO I RAZVOJ", BEOGRAD, 2012.
119-121
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2012
godina L
kiljan, Filip
ORGANIZIRANO MASOVNO PRISILNO ISELJAVANJE SRBA IZ HRVATSKE 1941. GODINE
ORGANIZED MASSIVE FORCED MIGRATION OF SERBS FROM CROATIA IN 1941
1-34
Kljune rei: Srbi u Hrvatskoj, NDH, 1941, Drugi svjetski rat, migracije
Keywords: Serbs in Croatia, NDH, 1941, World War II, migrations
Tekst donosi niz informacija o prisilnom iseljavanju srpskog stanovnitva iz hrvatskog dela Nezavisne Drave Hrvatske 1941.
godine. U Nezavisnoj Dravi Hrvatskoj gotovo treinu stanovnitva inili su Srbi. Jedan od oblika reavanja "srpskog pitanja" u
NDH bilo je iseljavanje Srba u Srbiju. Ostali oblici bili su prekrtavanja srpskog stanovnitva, odnosno fizike likvidacije. Zakonske
odredbe koje su doneene ozakonile su politiku terora nad srpskim stanovnitvom. 4. juna u nemakom poslanstvu u Zagrebu
odrana je konferencija. Na sastanku je dogovoreno da se Slovenci iz tajerske premeste u NDH, a Srbi iz NDH u Srbiju.
Deportovanje je trebalo biti obavljeno u tri talasa. Prvi talas je trebao da traje od 7. juna do 5. jula, i u tom talasu je trebalo da bude
transportovano 5000 slovenskih intelektualaca iz Donje tajerske direktno u Srbiju, izuzev katolikih svetenika koji je trebalo da
budu deportovani u NDH. Iz NDH je pak trebalo da budu deportovani u Srbiju pravoslavni svetenici zajedno s familijama. U
drugom talasu, izmeu 10. juna i 30. augusta trebalo je da bude deportovano 25000 Slovenaca iz Slovenije u NDH, a NDH je trebalo
da deportuje isto toliko Srba. U posljednjem talasu (od 15. septembra do 31. oktobra) trebalo je deportovati 65000 slovenakih
seljaka s podruja Gorenjske u NDH, a NDH je trebalo da iseli isto toliko Srba u Srbiju, kao i 30000 Srba kojima NDH ne priznaje
status dravljanstva. Vlasti NDH su za te potrebe osnovale ured pod nazivom Dravno ravnateljstvo za ponovu.
Iseljavanje Srba iz NDH zapoelo je u junu 1941. godine. Tada su iseljeni solunski dobrovoljci sa svojih imanja u Slavoniiji i Sremu.
Njihov ukupan broj kretao se oko 28000. Potom su iseljavani pravoslavni svetenici. Njih je iz NDH, prema spiskovima koje su
nainile vlasti NDH, iseljeno 327. Iz hrvatskog dela NDH organizovano je iseljeno 104 svetenika. Jedan deo njih uspeo je da
pobegne pre nego to su uhapeni. Iseljavanje svetenika vreno je preko sabirnih logora u Capragu i Poegi. Masovne deportacije
srpskog stanovnitva preko sabirnih logora u Capragu, Bjelovaru i Poegi zapoele su hapenjem Srba u Zagrebu u prvoj polovini
jula 1941, a potom su nastavljene i u ostalim srezovima severne Hrvatske i Bosne. Ukupan broj organizovano iseljenih iz hrvatskog
dela NDH do poetka rujna 1941, prema poimeninom popisu izraenom 2012. godine, iznosi 9875 Srba iako ta brojka nije konana,
budui da postoje vei nesrazmjeri za pojedine kotareve. Do kraja rujna 1941, legalnim putem ustae su ukupno iselile iz NDH
14.733 Srba. U njihove kue uselili su se Hrvati iz Dalmacije, Hercegovine i Hrvatskog zagorja te isterani Slovenci poreklom
preteno iz tajerske. Imovinu iseljenih Srba konfiskovale su vlasti NDH. Drugi oblici ustakog terora, poput masovnih likvidacija,
uzrokovali su intenzivnu nelegalnu emigraciju Srba iz NDH u Srbiju, koja je, prema nemakim podacima, ve do kraja srpnja narasla
na oko 180.000 prebeglih Srba, a ini se da je taj broj do kraja rujna premaio 200.000. Organizovana iseljavanja su zaustavljena u
oktobru 1941. nakon to su nemake vlasti u Srbiji zabranile dalje useljavanje Srba iz NDH, ponajvie radi ustanka u zapadnoj Srbiji.
Deo zatoenih Srba iz logora Poega vraen je svojim kuama u srezove Osijek, Garenicu, Krievce, Viroviticu i Ludbreg.
Meutim, iz dokumentacije Komesarijata za izbeglice i preseljenike u Beogradu, vidljivo je da istraivanje iseljavanja Srba iz
Hrvatske i itave NDH nije zavreno s 1941. godinom, pa stoga ni brojka od 200.000 preseljenika nije konana brojka onih koji su
otili.
Paper brings forth a range of information on forced migration of the Serb population from the Croatian part of the Independent State
of Croatia in 1941 (NDH). Almost one third of the population were Serbs in the NDH. One of the methods of solving the Serbia
issue in the NDH was migrating the Serbs into Serbia. The other methods were forced conversions of the Serbian population,
namely physical killings. The adopted legal provisions made the terror policy over Serbian population legitimate. A conference was
held on June 4th in the German legation in Zagreb. At the meeting it was agreed that Slovenians from Styria were to be moved to
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NDH, and Serbs from the NDH to Serbia. Deportation was to be carried out in three waves. The first wave was to last from June 7th
to July 5th and 5000 Slovenian intellectuals from Lower Styria were to be deported directly to Serbia, except for catholic priests who
were to be deported to the NDH. Orthodox priests from the NDH were to be deported to Serbia together with their families. In the
second wave, lasting from June 10th to August 30th, 25,000 Slovenians from Slovenia were to be deported to the NDH and NDH was
to deport just as many Serbs. In the last wave (from September 15th to October 31st), 65,000 Slovenian peasants from the Gorenjska
region (Upper Carniola region) were to be deported to the NDH, and NDH was to migrate just as many Serbs to Serbia, as well as
30,000 Serbs whose citizenship was not acknowledged by the NDH. The government of the NDH founded an office for this purpose
under the name State Directorate for Renewal.
The migration of the Serbs from NDH began in June of 1941. Volunteers from the Salonika Front were then moved from their
properties in Slavonia and Srem. Their total number was about 28,000. Then the Orthodox priests were migrated. According to the
lists made by the NDH authorities, 327 of them were migrated from the NDH. 104 priests from the Croatian part of NDH were
moved away in an organized manner. One part of them managed to escape before they were arrested. The migration of priests was
carried out through transit camps in Caprag and Poega. Massive deportations of the Serbian population through transit camps in
Caprag, Bjelovar and Poega began with the arresting of Serbs in Zagreb in the first half of July 1941, and then continued in other
districts of northern Croatia and Bosnia. The total number of migrations in an organized manner from the Croatian part of the NDH
up to the beginning of September 1941, according to the name list drawn up in 2012, amounted to 9875 Serbs, although that number
was not final since there were greater disparities for certain districts. By the end of September 1941, the Ustashas migrated 14,733
Serbs out of the NDH in a legal way. Croatians from Dalmatia, Herzegovina and the Croatian Zagorje as well as displaced
Slovenians primarily originally from Styria, moved into their houses. The authorities of NDH confiscated the property of the forced
out Serbs. Other forms of the Ustasha terror, like massive killings, caused intensive illegal emigration of Serbs from NDH to Serbia,
which, according to German data, had already increased to around 180,000 relocated Serbs by the end of July, although it seems this
number exceeded 200,000 by the end of September. Organized migration was ceased in October 1941 after the German authorities in
Serbia forbid further immigration of Serbs from the NDH mainly because of the uprising in western Serbia. Part of the banished
Serbs from the Poega concentration camp were returned home to the districts of Osijek, Garenica, Krievac, Virovitica and
Ludbreg. However, from the documentation of the Commissariat for Refugees in Belgrade, it is evident that the research on the
migration of Serbs from Croatia and the whole of NDH was not finished in 1941, so the number of 200,000 relocatees who have left
is not final.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2012
godina L
Penev, Goran, Jelena Predojevi-Despi
PROSTORNI ASPEKTI EMIGRACIJE IZ SRBIJE. TRI "VRUE" EMIGRACIONE ZONE
SPATIAL ASPECTS OF EMIGRATION OUT OF SERBIA. THREE 'HOT' EMIGRATION ZONES
35-64
Kljune rei: meunarodne migracije, zemlja porekla, prostorna analiza, Srbija
Keywords: international migration, country of origin, spatial analysis, Serbia
U Srbiji su veoma izraene teritorijalne razlike u pogledu udela lica na radu ili boravku u inostranstvu. One su ustanovljene ve
popisnim rezultatima iz 1971. godine, a potvrivane su svakim narednim popisom. Razlike su izraenije na niem teritorijalnom
nivou, i vremenom su se poveavale.
Prema broju lica u inostranstvu, kao i prema njihovom udelu u ukupnom stanovnitvu (u zemlji i inostranstvu) autori su odredili tri
"vrue" zone izrazite emigracije. Zona 1 (14 optina u centralnoistonom delu Srbije) je tradicionalno emigraciono podruje s barem
dvostruko veim ueem stanovnitva u inostranstvu od proseka za Srbiju. Zona 2 (optine Bujanovac i Preevo na jugu Srbije) je
podruje gde je udeo stanovnitva u inostranstvu jo 1981. i 1991. bio primetno vii od republikog proseka. Zona 3 (pet sandakih
optina) se tek tokom 1990-ih prikljuila izrazito emigracionim podrujima.
U radu su analizirane i strukture emigranata po duini boravka u inostranstvu, prema zemlji prijema i prema etnikom sastavu. Za sve
tri zone je karakteristino da se zemlje destinacije bitno ne razlikuju s obzirom na duinu boravka u inostranstvu to ukazuje da novi
migranti uglavnom odlaze tamo gde su ve formirane migrantske mree. Meutim, razlike po zonama u strukturi emigranata po
nacionalnosti su bitno naglaene. U zonama 2 i 3, pripadnici lokalne veinske etnike zajednice bili su znatno vie ukljueni u
spoljne migracije od "lokalnih" Srba, to upuuje na vanost politikog aspekta tog pitanja, ali ne samo prilikom donoenja
individualnih odluka da se ode iz Srbije, ve i prilikom odluivanja imigracionih vlasti zemalja prijema.
The paper analyzed the dynamics of the emigration of the population of Serbia in the period of 1971 to 2011, primarily based on the
results of the five latest population censuses. Special attention was paid to the spatial aspect of emigration, at the level of the lowest
administrative units (municipalities). It was shown that the shares of persons working or living aboard were very uneven by
municipality, and that the differences became increasingly pronounced over time. Very uneven shares of persons working or living
abroad in the total population of Serbia by municipality, as well as the trend of increasing differences, also influenced the very
heterogeneous spatial distribution of that emigration contingent.
Based on the concentration of population abroad, as well as the percentage of persons abroad in the total population (in the country
and abroad), the paper defines three "hot" zones of substantial emigration. Zone 1 (in the central-eastern Serbia) is traditionally a high
emigration area, which, for all three observed points in time (1991, 2002 and 2011), had at least twice as high a share of population
abroad as the average for Serbia. Zone 2 (in the south of Serbia) consists of the municipalities of Bujanovac and Preevo, where the
majority of the population consists of ethnic Albanians. The shares of population abroad was already in 1981 and 1991 noticeably
higher than the average for Serbia, but also significantly lower than in Zone 1. Between 1991 and 2002, the number of emigrants
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from that zone was more than tripled, and their share in the total population of emigration Zone 2 increased from 6.1% to 23.1% in
2011. Zone 3 (five municipalities from the Serbian part of the region of Sandak) did not join the group of notably emigration areas
until the 1990s. Between 1991 and 2002, the number of persons abroad increased by up to six times, and their share in the total
population of those five Sandak municipalities increased from 2.3% to 12.6%.
In this paper, all three zones were analyzed, as well as the structures of emigrants based on the length of their stay abroad, the
country of destination and ethnic composition. For all three zones, it is notable that the countries of destination do not differ
significantly in terms of length of stay abroad, based on which the authors conclude that new emigrants primarily go to places that
already have formed migrant networks.
In all three zones, the share of ethnic Serbs in the total population of the country is greater than their share in the total number of
emigrants. Additionally, census data indicated that members of the local major ethnic group in Zones 2 and 3 participated
significantly more often in international migration than "local" ethnic Serbs. In connection to this, the authors stress the importance
of the political aspect of this issue, especially in the period of crises and wars during the 1990s.
asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2012
godina L
Markovi, M. Milan
POSLOVNA SPOSOBNOST KAO UNIVERZALNO LJUDSKO PRAVO I DETERMINANTA DRUTVENOG
POLOAJA LICA SA MENTALNIM INVALIDITETOM
LEGAL CAPACITY AS A UNIVERSAL HUMAN RIGHT AND A DETERMINANT OF SOCIAL STATUS OF
PEOPLE WITH MENTAL DISABILITY
65-83
Kljune rei: mentalni invaliditet, poslovna sposobnost, promena obrasca, ljudska prava, Konvencija o pravima lica sa
invaliditetom
Keywords: mental disability, legal capacity, paradigm shift, human rights, Convention on the rights of persons with
disabilities
lanak razmatra promenu obrasca koju uvodi Konvencija o pravima lica sa invaliditetom Ujedinjenih nacija. U tom smislu, posmatra
se takva promena na polju poimanja i vanosti poslovne sposobnosti lica sa mentalnim invaliditetom. Istiu se jasni stavovi koji
poslovnu sposobnost vide kao glavnu determinantu drutvenog poloaja ove manjinske grupe, koja, pak, usled ustaljenog modela
negacije sposobnosti, trpi dehumanizaciju i marginalizaciju, koje dalje dovode do ozbiljnih posledica po pojedince. Takoe, uvodi se
teorijska diskusija o odrivosti odreenih koncepata u tretmanu osoba sa mentalnim tekoama, te zastupa neophodnost ukidanja
sistema nesposobnosti i uspostavljanja sistema sposobnosti koji kapacitet ljudskog bia tretira kao univerzalnu vrednost, na ta se
nadovezuje stav uveden Konvencijom o poslovnoj sposobnosti kao univerzalnom ljudskom pravu. Najzad, prua se ilustracija o
zabrinjavajuem sistemskom automatizmu u liavanju poslovne sposobnosti i stereotipima i etiketiranju u tom smislu.
Adoption of the UN Convention on the Right of Persons with Disabilities (2006) brought about a core shift to how the international
community and human rights law see and treat human disability in general. This paradigm shift materilizes itself in a number of
provisions ranging from those which catalogue the proclaimed human rights as they are in the context of special implementation and
protection of people with disabilities, to those that introduce a level of specificity in light of their holders' particular needs. But the
strongest presence of the shift to this regard can be found in the Article 12 CRPD that sheds new light on the concept of (legal)
capacity of people with (mental) disabilites. According to this norm and put quite simply there should be no difference in observing
and treating capacity of a person with disabilities to that of any other person. This is not only the matter of prohibiting discrimination
on grounds of mental impairments, but furthermore preventing the system from establishing a classification in which a person with
psychosocial or intellectual impairment would be a second-rate citizen, an object of law or a victim of legal, social and family abuse,
someone who is a burden to his entire environment, someone who does not have a say in any case concerning his own life and
wellbeing. Legal capacity should not be a goal to be fighting for, but a universal human right. Of course and unfortunatelly, such a
shift is purely a formal one, when not causing due reform withitn the national systems and without proper implementation in the
member states.
What is thought urgently needed and directly required by the given provision is removing the system features that allow deprivation
of legal capacity on the bases of mental impairments and introducing a humane and human rights oriented model in which the
decision making of these people would be autonomous and supported, and with only very restricted exceptions, done by them and not
on their behalf. This novelty is what some authors call a clash between the systems of capacity and those of incapacity, i.e. the matter
of replacing an environment where incapacity is presumed by an environment where capacity is presumed, supported and ensured to
the highest attainable degree, and the question of seeing the legal capacity as the main social determinant for any individual.
Therefore, the present article introduces the ongoing discussion about the values that this particular international legal norm has
embodied and advocates in a way the urgency for change and reform in order to abolish the outrageously negative and detrimental
practice in which people with mental impairments do not deserve to be social, economic, political or emotional beings, and are totally
deprived of their right as living humans to decide in almost any aspects of the human life. As an illustration of certain negative
tendencies existing in the old and current systems of incapacity, some data collected within the Serbian judicial structure has been
employed.
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asopis Stanovnitvo
lanak
broj 2/2012
godina L
obot, Ankica
TRI DEMOGRAFSKE POSLEDICE RODNO SPECIFINIH MODELA PONAANJA NA PRIMERU SRBIJE
THREE DEMOGRAPHIC CONSEQUENCES OF GENDER-SPECIFIC BEHAVIOR PATTERN:
THE CASE OF SERBIA
85-109
Kljune rei: rodne uloge, rodna nejednakost, feminizacija, starenje, mortalitet, fertilitet
Keywords: gender roles, gender inequality, feminization, ageing, mortality, fertility
Feminizacija, mortalitet mukaraca i niske reproduktivne norme u ovom radu se analiziraju kao efekti relevantnog ponaanja enskog
i mukog stanovnitva Srbije. Njihov izbor je odreen rezultatima analiza strukturnih karakteristika oba pola i nalazima istraivanja
demografskih fenomena sa stanovita rodnih uloga i karakteristika rodnog odnosa. Teorijsko utemeljenje pronaeno je u shvatanjima
savremene demografije kao naune discipline sa jasnim antropolokim implikacijama, orijentisane na prouavanje relevantnog
ponaanja u kontekstu interaktivnog odnosa sa konkretnim okruenjem. U tom kontekstu, rodne uloge i rodni odnos predstavljaju
neizostavan segment sloene deterministike osnove demografskih pojava i procesa, koji su odreeni interakvitnim delovanjem
raznovrsnih faktora.
Feminizacija sredovenog stanovnitva i populacije starih, krai ivotni vek muke populacije i asimetrina podela roditeljske uloge
podvlae vanost rodne perspektive pri definisanju razliitih politika usmerenih ka stanovnitvu i njegovom razvoju. Rodno
senzibilan pristup u reavanju demografskih pitanja implicira uvaavanje pozicija i poloaja oba pola i prepoznavanje rodnog odnosa
kao relevantnog inioca.
The focus point in this paper referes to three issues of demographic development in Serbia presented from the gender perspective.
Feminization, mortality in men and low reproductive norms are analyzed as effects of relevant behavior of both sexes. This choice is
the result of earlier analyses of gender socio-demographic characteristics as well as the researches of demographic phenomena from
the perspective of gender roles and gender relations. The gender aspect, as a cognitive concept, implies the importance of the female
and male behavior pattern in understanding demographic structures, processes and phenomena. The theoretical foundation was found
in the anthropological character of contemporary demography which focuses on the individuals behavior in the context of interactive
relations with the concrete environment. In the context of a complex deterministic basis and interactive connection of various factors,
gender roles and gender relations represent a relative segment of social dimension of various demographic issues.
Feminization of the middle-aged and older population emphasizes the importance of female perspective, taking into consideration
space diversity. Feminization is most intensive in Belgrade. Among the middle-aged women there is a higher proportion of tertiary
educated and divorced, and less share of the economically independent, in relation to the remaining region of Central Serbia. As
regards older women, irrespective of spatial distribution, widowhood, unfavorable education characteristics, lower economic activity
and greater economic dependency are important matters. The issue of retirement has specific importance, and should be solved in the
context of educated and socio-professional characteristics of women, in order to promote their social position and gender equality.
A shorter life span of the male population requires recognizing specific mortality factors of the middle-aged and older males, in order
to eliminate the gender gap in this view. Greater mortality rate in men implies diversity of factors and characteristics of concrete
social context. Part of the response lies in their greater exposure to risky behavior. Apart from that, the importance of sociopsychological factors has been recognized, which includes the prevailing concept of gender roles and gender relations.
The asymmetric division of activities and obligations regarding parenthood represents an increasingly important determinant of low
reproductive norms. Empirical research confirms the prevailing realization of motherhood in everyday parent activities and in the
responsibility for raising and upbringing children. Sweden is an example of a country in which the above average European fertility
rates correspond with a more equal division of parenting roles, whereby the support for coordinating parenthood and the profession is
orientated both towards mothers and fathers equally.
A gender sensible approach in solving demographic matters implies recognizing the position and status of both sexes and
acknowledging the gender relations as a relevant factor. The analyzed issues are not specific only to the demographic development of
Serbia. Nevertheless, their solving implies confronting cultural norms, achieved degrees of economic and social development, as
well as building necessary institutional mechanisms.
asopis Stanovnitvo
prikazi
broj 2/2012
godina L
Stojilkovi, Jelena
ELISABETTA BARBI, JOHN BONGAARTS, JAMES W. VAUPEL (EDS.) "HOW LONG DO WE LIVE?
DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS AND REFLECTIONS ON TEMPO EFFECTS"
111-120
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prikazi
broj 2/2012
godina L
Zlatanovi, Sanja
ZORICA MREVI "KA DEMOKRATSKOM DRUTVU RODNA RAVNOPRAVNOST"
121-123
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285

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B

high education does not bring the privileges.

postoji engleski rezime

postoji kratak engleski rezime

postoji engleski rezime

q x / p x = A(x+B) + De-E(lnx-lnF ) + GH x ...

where qx is the probability of dying, px = 1 - qx., and A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H are

postoji kratak engleski rezime

postoji engleski rezime

se po pravilu odlikuju visokim stopama rasta stanovnitva i niskom efikasnou investicija.

displaying negative rates of natural increase.

vei broj zemalja i u njemu uestvuje sve vie ljudi.

Population of the Serbian Academy of Science and Arts.

M.c.: viellissement demographique, fcondit, mortalit, population stable, France, Grce

barem u jednoj generaciji.

mortality in old people.

How is integration perceived?

K.r.: populaciona politika, fertilitet, mortalitet, starenje stanovnitva, migracije, Srbija

KA RAZUMEVANJU DETERMINANTI MEUNARODNIH MIGRACIJA DANAS TEORIJSKA PERSPEKTIVA

K.r.: mortalitet, uzroci smrti, klaster analiza, svet 2002, regionalizacija

K.r.: ene, migracije, rod, feminizacija, rodna tranzicija

K.r.: trite rada, ekonomska aktivnost, rodne razlike, Evropa, Srbija

ZAKASNELA I NEPOTPUNA ILI SPECIFINA DRUGA DEMOGRAFSKA TRANZICIJA?

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