Hardik Patel and Patidar agitation: Why the

Sangh Parivar will be cheering

by Ajaz Ashraf Aug 31, 2015 22:50 IST
From the time youth leader Hardik Patel amassed an estimated six lakh people to
press for the inclusion of the Patels in the OBC pool of reservation, every political
pundit has been trying to identify the mastermind or brain behind the sudden, and
unexpected, emergence of this movement.
Nobody denies the depth of anger among the Patels against the policy of affirmative
action. Nor does anyone rule out the enviable financial clout of the Patels and their
numerical strength, said to comprise 18 per cent of Gujarats population, as factors
behind their massive mobilisation witnessed last week.
Nevertheless, pundits unanimously believe no movement can acquire such a sweep,
and depth, simply on the basis of anger, financial resources, and numerical
strength. It must have had access to organizational skills, honed over years of
experience in crafting popular protests, beyond the capacity of a 22-year-old, as
Hardik is, so they say.

<img class="size-full wp-image2414942" src="http://s3.firstpost.in/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Hardik-Patel_3380.jpg" alt="Hardik Patel in Delhi. Naresh Sharma/ Firstpost" width="380"
height="285" />
Hardik Patel in Delhi. Naresh Sharma/ Firstpost
Eyebrows have also been raised at the political savviness Hardik has demonstrated.
At his rally, contrary to expectations, he spoke in Hindi, suggesting he wanted to

reach via TV an audience beyond Gujarat. This impression has been further
reinforced as he descended on Delhi for confabulating with the leaders of Jats, who
have been demanding to be included in the central OBC list.
All this has prompted the speculation that the movement has its mastermind(s) a
group of people, unseen and unheard, guiding Hardik behind the curtains. The
question to ask is: who are they? What is their motive?
Hardiks visit to Delhi suggests an attempt to widen the Patel movement beyond
Gujarat. He claims he wants the Patels to be included in the OBC pool of
reservation. But, in the same breath, he has also said that in case the Patels cant
be declared socially and educationally backward, then caste-based reservation
should be scrapped in favour of one based on economic indices.
His articulation pits him against a large majority of Indias population, as Scheduled
Castes, Scheduled Tribes and OBCs are all beneficiaries of reservation. It would
seem he can hope to win only the support of the upper castes and upwardly mobile
social groups, such as the Jats and Patels, all of whom compete for government jobs
and seats in educational institutes in what is called the general category.
In addition, he can access the support of the corporate sector, which has been
hostile to the suggestion of implementing affirmative action in its recruitment
process. Though the troika of upper castes, upwardly mobile castes, and the
corporate sector wield power disproportionate to their numbers, it is debatable
whether beneficiaries of reservation would accept any dilution of this policy.
The motive
Therefore the question: What do the masterminds want?
It can be always argued that the masterminds want to widen and deepen the
movement to recalibrate the reservation policy. However, they would know that
neither the Patels nor the Jats can be included in the OBC list through an executive
fiat. Only the backward commissions at the Centre, or in the states, are empowered
to declare them as OBCs. And that too after undertaking an elaborate socioeconomic survey.
Two, the cap of 50 per cent in reservations could be removed to include those who
are poor, but this would flout the Supreme Court judgement in Indra Sawhney. The
cap was introduced to strike a balance between the competing ideas of social
justice and merit.
It is possible for the state to pass a law to remove the 50 per cent ceiling and place
it in the Ninth Schedule, thereby ensuring, at least theoretically, that the courts
wouldnt strike it down. However, a 2007 Supreme Court judgement says laws
placed in this Schedule after 1973 can still be challenged on the grounds of violating
the basic structure of the Constitution.

In other words, even if Hardiks attempt to recalibrate the reservation policy were to
succeed, it would take years. This is why pundits have tried to analyse the timing of
the movement and its location to identify the possible masterminds.
The timing and location of the movement
The Patel movement has acquired salience not only because of its fury, but also
because it occurred in the state which Prime Minister Naredra Modi considers his
veritable backyard, his model of good governance.
Nevertheless, several commentaries, particularly those emanating from Gujarat,
suggest the Patel movement enjoys the backing of the RSS to test whether castebased reservation can be replaced by one based on economic criteria. Its said this
is the pet project of Modi, whose stature will be enhanced in case he does indeed
succeed in revamping the reservation policy.

<img class="size-full wp-image2414938" src="http://s3.firstpost.in/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/modi-appealpeace-PTI1.jpg" alt="Modi during his televised appeal for peace in Gujarat. PTI
image" width="380" height="285" />
Modi during his televised appeal for peace in Gujarat. PTI image
You may disagree with Modis style of governance, or his ideology, yet you have to
give him credit for his political sense. It is inconceivable to think of such a man
endorsing a movement which is, at least rhetorically, tilted against the OBC
population of 54 per cent. Even if we were to accept that Modi does indeed think the
reservation policy needs a revamp, would he have supported such a movement
now?
He wouldnt, because of the forthcoming Bihar Assembly election.

Considering Modis pitch is good governance, in contrast to the jungle raj of Lalu
Prasad Yadav, a burning Gujarat isnt the quite the advertisement he needed to woo
and win over the Biharis. Predictably, both Lalu and Nitish Kumar have referred to
the curfew in Gujarat to mock Modis claim of being an exponent of good
governance.
Then again, he could have scarcely supported a movement which, essentially,
questions the caste-based reservation system and demands its rollback or dilution.
This is more so as Modi hopes to use the twin mantra of development, and his own
OBC status, to wean away a section of Bihars OBCs to his fold. The Patel
movement, in this sense, challenges Modis electoral strategy.
Modi has preferred not to spell out his own position on the Patel movement, apart
from appealing for the restoration of peace and harmony in Gujarat. Indeed, there
are no gains for Modi in opposing caste-based reservation, at least not in the
context of Bihar. This is because upper castes in Bihar, thanks to the JD (U)-RJDCongress alliance, are already solidly behind Modis BJP. Yet their numbers arent
significant enough for him to win the poll. He needs the support of lower castes to
augment his vote-bank, the castes which are bound to look askance at the Patel
movement.
Bihar is vital for Modi to recover the momentum following the drubbing the BJP
received in the Delhi election. Yet the Patel movement has seemingly queered
Modis pitch. In many senses, there is a stark resemblance in the atmosphere before
Delhi went to polls to what is being created before Biharis queue up at the polling
booths.
Till October-November last year, Modi was generating positive headlines and
dominating the media, either because of a slew of projects he launched or trips
abroad. Its around this time the controversial ghar wapsi programme was initiated
with tremendous fervour. RSS boss Mohan Bhagwat insisted on articulating the
Hindutva idea, maverick BJP MPs decided to shoot their mouth, churches were
attacked, and attempts were made to trigger riots in Delhi.
The spectacle assumed such an alarming proportion that it did eventually become
an important factor behind the drubbing the BJP received. Delhi is no Uttar Pradesh
its cosmopolitanism alienated, to a degree, even the middle class which had been
Modis most zealous supporter. It was an important factor why the party huffed and
puffed to win just three Assembly seats.
Like then, theres now a mood and headlines, should we say which is not
conducive to Modi in Bihar. Should he lose Bihar, Modis stature will be diminished
both inside the Sangh and the government, over which he looms large,
unquestioned and unchallenged.
It would seem his rivals are assiduously working for the defeat of Modi.

Who could be his rivals?

It is tempting to say his rivals belong to the Congress. But the Congress as an
organisation has become moribund in Gujarat. It has been out of power for three
long decades. It is also bitterly divided. It is improbable the Congress could have
stoked the fire in Gujarat, which Rahul Gandhi hasnt visited even after his
mysterious 40-day sabbatical earlier this year.
Indeed, whichever way you look, it is Modis rivals in the Sangh who appear to have
masterminded or orchestrated the Patel rebellion in Gujarat.
For long, there has been acute dismay among sections in the Sangh over Modis
centralization of power, his silence on hot-button Hindutva issues, and his attempt
to create a new persona for himself, evident from his visit to the mosque in Abu
Dhabi and his meeting with the Sufis, to which he referred to in his Mann ki baat on
30 August.
Obviously, you might say all this is in the realm of speculation. Yet it not
insignificant that as Gujarat languished under curfew, there was a statement issued
saying Modi is likely to attend the RSSs three-day meeting, scheduled to begin on 2
September. As in diplomacy, so in politics, signaling is a tried and tested strategy.
Regardless of whether or not Modis rivals in the Sangh will pull back from their
precipitous politics, Gujarat has enhanced his anxiety, and increased his problems,
before the Bihar polls.
(Ajaz Ashraf is a journalist from Delhi. His novel, The Hour Before Dawn, published
by HarperCollins, is available in bookstores)