Level 0 subjective q.n.

16
Consider the experiment of tossing a coin. If the coin shows head, toss it again but if
it shows tail, then throw a die. Find the conditional probability of the event that
the die shows a number greater than 4 given that there is at least one
tail.
Need another clarification. Is this how the probabilities were calculated?
1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4 for heads and
1/2 x 1/6 = 1/12 for the tail cases?

Level 1 obj q.n. 11.

This kind of question needs to be read closely. A slight difference in interpretation can result in a completely different
answer. My interpretation is given below as (a).

a.

b.

c.

d.

Three dice are thrown. Given that EXACTLY ONE die reads 5, determine the conditional probability that the others
are both 4.
The sample space begins as 6 = 216. The chance that exactly one die reads 5 is 75/216. (If the first die reads 5,
there are 5*5 possibilities for the others, which must be elements of {1,2,3,4,6}.) So the new sample space is 75.
Out of those, you have one of 5-4-4, 4-5-4 and 4-4-5.
Answer: 3/75 = 1/25.
Three dice are thrown. Given that AT LEAST ONE die reads 5, determine the conditional probability that the others
are both 4.
The sample space begins as 6 = 216. The chance that no die reads 5 is 5/6 = 125/216, so the chance that at
least one die reads 5 is 91/216. So the new sample space is 91. Out of those, you have one of 5-4-4, 4-5-4 and 4-45.
Answer: 3/91.
Three dice are thrown. Determine the probability that one is 5, and that the others are 4.
The sample space is 6 = 216. You have one of 5-4-4, 4-5-4 and 4-4-5.
Answer: 3/216 = 1/72.
A die is thrown. Then, two more dice are thrown. Given that the first read 5, determine the conditional
probability that the others read 4.
The later dice do not "know" what the other die reads. So you must have 4-4 out of 36 possibilities.

==> probability/amoeba.p <==

A jar begins with one amoeba. Every minute, every
amoeba
turns into 0, 1, 2, or 3 amoebae with probability 25%
for each case ( dies, does nothing, splits into 2, or
splits
into 3). What is the probability that the amoeba
population
eventually dies out?
==> probability/amoeba.s <==
If p is the probability that a single amoeba's
descendants will die
out eventually, the probability that N amoebas'
descendents will all
die out eventually must be p^N, since each amoeba is
independent of
every other amoeba. Also, the probability that a
single amoeba's

descendants will die out must be independent of time

when averaged
over all the possibilities. At t=0, the probability is
p, at t=1 the
probability is 0.25(p^0+p^1+p^2+p^3), and these
probabilities must be
equal. Extinction probability p is a root of f(p)=p.
In this case,
p = sqrt(2)-1.
The generating function for the sequence P(n,i), which
gives the
probability of i amoebas after n minutes, is f^n(x),
where f^n(x) ==
f^(n-1) ( f(x) ), f^0(x) == x . That is, f^n is the
nth composition
of f with itself.
Then f^n(0) gives the probability of 0 amoebas after n
minutes, since
f^n(0) = P(n,0). We then note that:
f^(n+1)(x) = ( 1 + f^n(x) + (f^n(x))^2 + (f^n(x))^3
)/4
so that if f^(n+1)(0) -> f^n(0) we can solve the
equation.
The generating function also gives an expression for
the expectation
value of the number of amoebas after n minutes. This is
d/dx(f^n(x))
evaluated at x=1. Using the chain rule we get f'(f^(n1)(x))*d/dx(f^(n-1)(x))
and since f'(1) = 1.5 and f(1) = 1, we see that the
result is just
1.5^n, as might be expected.

In a tournament with 5 teams,each team plays every other team once.Each game ends in a win for one of the two teams.Each
team has 1/2 chance of winning each game.The probability that no team wins all its games or loses all its games is?

First, we need to recognize that no two teams can win all their games, because when they play against each other, one will
lose. Similarly, no two teams can lose all their games, because when they play against each other, one will win.
So it's easier to calculate the probability that at least one team wins/loses all their games.
There are two different ways you can calculate this.
-------------------------------Each team plays all other teams once. So there are C(5,2) = 10 games
For each game, there are 2 possible outcomes, for a total of 2^10 possible outcomes.
Number of outcomes where 1 team wins all its games:
Let's say team A wins all its games (4 in total).
Then these 4 games end in 1 possible outcome: team A wins ---> 1^4
The other 6 games can end in 2 possible outcomes ---> 2^6
Since any one team could win all its games, we get: 5 * 1^4 * 2^6 = 5 * 2^6
Number of outcomes where 1 team loses all its games:
Let's say team B loses all its games (4 in total).
Then these 4 games end in 1 possible outcome: team B loses ---> 1^4
The other 6 games can end in 2 possible outcomes ---> 2^6
Since any one team could lose all its games, we get: 5 * 1^4 * 2^6 = 5 * 2^6
But it's also possible for 1 team to win all its games, and another team to lose all its games. But these will have been included in
both totals above (i.e. calculated twice), so we must subtract this amount once from the totals above:
Let's say team A wins all its games and team B loses all it's games (these include 7 games, 4 games for team A and 4 games
for team B, but we must remember that teams A and B play each other once, so there are only 7 games in which team A or
team B plays). These 7 games can have one possible outcome only: team A wins and/or team B loses -----> 1^7
The other 3 games can end in 2 possible outcomes ----> 2^3
Since any of the 5 teams could be the one to win all its games, and any of the 4 remaining teams could be the one to lose all its
games, we get 5 * 4 * 1^7 * 2^3 = 20 * 2^3
Probability that at least one team wins/loses all their games.
= (5 * 2^6 + 5 * 2^6 20 * 2^3) / 2^10
= 15/32
-------------------------------Alternate method:
Each team plays 4 games:
Prob(a particular team wins all its games) = (1/2)^4
Prob(any of the teams wins all its games) = 5 * (1/2)^4
Prob(a particular team loses all its games) = (1/2)^4
Prob(any of the teams loses all its games) = 5 * (1/2)^4
Prob(a particular team wins all its games and another loses all its games)
= (1/2)^4 * (1/2)^3 = (1/2)^7
Prob(any of the teams wins all its games and any remaining team loses all its games)
= 5 * 4 * (1/2)^7
Probability that at least one team wins/loses all their games.
= 5 * (1/2)^4 + 5 * (1/2)^4 5 * 4 * (1/2)^7
= 15/32

-------------------------------Probability that no team wins or loses all its games

= 1 15/32
= 17/32
= 0.53125

ocha
955 posts
#2Mar 7, 2010, 8:14 am

the regular polygon has

vertices,
, and a center . drawing a line from one
vertice
through the center
will hit the the midpoint of an oposite segment at
.
Also, since the polygon is symmetrical we can assume that one of the vertices we pick is .
Now we will count the number of triangles, with vertex

, that contain

Suppose the second vertex picked is

. if the triangle is to contain
then the thrid vertex must lie
between
and
(the smaller arc), and there are vertices between
and
.
To avoid overcounting we only need to consider the vertices
This gives

triangles with contain

The number of traingles that include vertex

From

with

and

is given by

it follows that the desired probability is

tc1729
1221 posts
#5Mar 25, 2012, 6:14 am

There are

ways how to pick the three vertices. We will now count the ways where the interior

does NOT contain the center. These are obviously exactly the ways where all three picked vertices lie
among some
consecutive vertices of the polygon.
We will count these as follows: We will go clockwise around the polygon. We can pick the first vertex
arbitrarily (
possibilities). Once we pick it, we have to pick out of the next vertices (

possibilities).
Then the probability that our triangle does NOT contain the center is

And then the probability we seek is