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Shale Gas
Shale Gas
At a glance
The impact of shale gas on
domestic chemical companies
has been to decrease the
costs of both raw materials
and energy.
It is estimated that the
US chemicals industry
investment in ethylene
production, has increased
capacity by 33%. As these
investments take hold,
yielding more supply, the
United States could become
a major, global, low-cost
provider of energy.
Volumes from natural gas
separation plants expected to
increase more than 40% over
the next five years.
Executive summary
Introduction
Figure 1: Shale gas through the ethane chain into manufactured products
Ammonia
Polyvinychloride
Methane
Methanol
Trichloroethylene
Ethylene Vinychloride
Product categories
Manufacturing sectors
Adhesives
Alkyd resins
Solvents
Corrosion inhibitors
Textiles
Inks, adhesives
Ethylene
Ethane
Ethoxylate
Polyethylene Glycol
Coatings
Pipes, hoses, wire coating
Ethyl Acetate
Coolant, antifreeze
Films, packaging, bottles
Propane
Propylene
Paint remover
Plastics
Polyvinyl Alcohol
Polyvinyl Acetate
N-Butylene
Ethylene Vinylacetate
Butane
Chemicals
Computers and electronics
Fabricated metal products
Food and kindred products
Leather and allied products
Machinery, except electrical
Nonmetalic mineral products
Paper
Petroleum and coal products
Pharmaceutical
Plastics and rubber products
Primary metal manufacturing
Printed matter and related
Textiles and fabrics
Textiles and mill products
Transportation equipment
Wood products
Isobutylene
Acetic Acid
Recent
Historical
Asia
Change in US natural
gas cost
$/MMBTU
0.75
12.5
$/BBL
100
$/ton
483
148
615
964
1.29
1.29
2.98
2874
$/ton
483
190
793
Catalyst + other
$/ton
$/ton
483
192
795
2876
$/ton
276
153
431
1565
Utilities
$/ton
149
109
454
235
Direct costs
$/ton
99
167
167
172
Other costs
By-product credits
$/ton
455
316
985
1717
466
323
1009
1760
2.50%
$/ton
US is lowest-cost
ethylene producer
$/MMBTU
Recent
Historical
0.75
12.5
$/BBL
Asia
100
Ethylene cost
$/ton
466
323
1009
1760
$/ton
1.025
1.025
1.025
1.025
Ethylene cost
$/ton
478
332
1035
1804
Utilities
$/ton
31
12
48
31
Direct cost
$/ton
51
51
51
51
Other costs
$/ton
132
132
132
132
692
526
1266
2018
Total costs
$/ton
$/ton 3.00%
$/ton
713
542
1304
2079
Polyethylene price
reduced by 2.4x
$/MMBTU
0.75
Recent
Historical
Asia
12.5
$/BBL
100
466
323
1009
1760
$/ton
0.66
0.66
0.66
0.66
Ethylene cost
308
213
666
1162
Utilities
150
56
234
150
31
31
31
31
Direct cost
Other costs
35
35
35
35
Total costs
524
336
967
1378
3.00%
$/ton
540
346
996
1419
Southeast
Asia
$1000
U.S.
Ethane
$800
$600
U.S. Average
Alberta
2011
Demand
U.S. Gas
(Integrated)
$400
$200
Northeast
Asia
West
Europe
Middle East
$0
02
04
06
80
100
120
140
160
Impact on chemicals
industry segments
The United States is already a net
exporter of ethylene derivatives, and
the volume is expected to increase
significantly. Together with low-cost
Middle East producers, the chemicals
industry may see some economic
disruption in other regions that use
crude oil to produce those products.
This may cause the shutdown of
less lucrative assets and lead to the
imposition of trade barriers by some
countries in an attempt to protect
local production.
Major oil and gas companies and
upstream commodity industry
participants are already acting
on plans to take advantage of
shale gas opportunities. Some are
negotiating mergers, acquisitions,
and divestitures; analyzing their
portfolios, pricing policies, and
supply chains; and conducting
customer service analyses.12 They
are considering whether to restart
mothballed assets, invest in greenfield
projects, form strategic alliances,
and expand and upgrade existing
assets. For many of these companies,
todays focus is on execution of
large capital projects, identification
of engineering and construction
resources, and establishment of
strategic sourcing agreements with
NGL providers, exporting options,
and material logistics. With low-cost
and abundant ethylene, coupled
with a slowdown in the growth of
domestic demand, US companies
are looking abroad for expansion
opportunities.13 Some companies
have clearly stated this intention
10
Housewares, Crates,
Drums, Bottles, Food
Containers
Ethylene Dichloride
Vinyl Chloride
Ethylene Oxide
Ethylene Glycol
Siding, Window
Frames, Swimming
Pool Liners, Pipes
PVC
Opportunity for up to
60% raw material cost
advantage as a result of
wet shale gas basins
Ethane
Ethylene
Automotive Antifreeze
Fibers
Polyester Resin
Bottles
Downstream
opportunity for
60% raw material
cost advantage
should translate
through entire
value chain. But
will it be realized?
Misc.
Ethylbenzene
Linear Alcohols
Vinyl Acetate
Styrene
Detergent
Adhesives,
Coatings,
Textiles/paper
Finishing,
Flooring
Misc. Chemicals
Polystyrene
Resins
Packaging
Styrene
Butadiene
Rubber
Tires, Footwear,
Sealants
Styrene
Butadiene
Latex
Carpet Backing,
Paper
Misc.
Sources: Shale Gas and New Petrochemicals Investment: Benefits for the Economy, Jobs, and US
Manufacturing, American Chemistry Council, March 2012, PwC and TopLine Analytics
12
Conclusion
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Chemicals practice
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14
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2012 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC and PwC US refer to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership, which is a member firm of
PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, each member firm of which is a separate legal entity. This document is for general information purposes only, and
should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors. LA-13-0069