Course Title

Econometrics and Business Forecasting (EBF)

Course No

BM61021

Discipline

Management (Third Semester)

Coordinator

Department

Institute

Rudra P. Pradhan

VGSOM

Availability

Autumn Semester

Email

Phone
number
IIT
03222Kharagpur rudrap@vgsom.iitkgp.ernet.in 282316

Course Objective
The objective of this course is to present a comprehensive tools and techniques for managerial
decision making including problem of cost estimation, market size determination, sales
projection, inventory projection, production, marketing, stock price prediction, risk
management, revenue management, etc. The paper deals with econometric modelling and
business forecasting, which captures the behavior of variable through a structural model based
on theory. The tentative subject outline is described below.
Contents
What is Econometrics? Difference between Econometrics, Mathematics and Statistics, Basics of
Model Building, Basics of Business Forecasting, Forecasting Tools, Univariate Statistics,
Bivariate Statistics, Probability and Hypothesis Testing, Bivariate, Trivariate and Multivariate
Econometric Modelling, Multicolinearity, Serial Correlation, Heteroskedasticity, DG Test,
Dummy Variable Econometric Modelling, Panel Data Modelling, Lag Modelling, Factor
analysis, Structural Equation Modelling, Applications of Econometric Modelling with special
aspects of business forecasting like sales, cost, inventory, production, marketing, stock market,
risk management, revenue management, etc.
Course Prerequisites

Preferred Background

Basic Statistics and Mathematics

Engineering and Management graduate

Text/References
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Gujarati, D. N., Basic Econometrics, McGraw Hill Publications.

Maddala, G. S., Introduction to Econometric Modelling, Wiley Publications.
Makridakis, S., Forecasting: Methods and Applications, Wiley Publications.
Wilson, J. H., Business Forecasting, McGraw Hill Publications.
Hair et al., Multivariate Data Analysis, Pearson Education.

LECTURE PLAN
Module

1) Introduction

2) Basic Statistical
Concept

3) Foundation of
Econometric
Modelling and
Business Forecasting

4) Assessing the
Assumptions of
Econometric
Modelling

5) Extension of
Econometric
Modelling and
Business Forecasting

Learning Units

Hours Per
Topic

Total
Hours

1.

What is Econometric Modelling

2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

How is it different to Mathematics and

Statistics
Importance and Scope
Linkage with Business Forecasting
Basic Forecasting Tools
Univariate and Bivariate Statistics

7.

Probability and Hypothesis Testing

8.

Basics of Econometric Modelling

9.

Bivariate Econometric Modelling

10. Trivariate Econometric Modelling

11. Multivariate Econometric Modelling

12. Multicolinearity

13. Serial Correlation

14. Heteroskedasticity

15. DG Test

16. Dummy Variable Econometric Modelling

17. Panel Data Modelling

18. Factor Analysis

19. Structural Equation Modelling

20. Application of Econometric Models with

special aspects of business forecasting
like sales, cost, inventory, production,
marketing,
stock
market,
risk
management, revenue management, etc.
Total

10

22

22