Persistence and Continuity of Criminal Careers from Early

Adolescence to Adulthood

Shachar Yonai

Department of Criminology

Ph.D. Thesis

Submitted to the Senate of Bar-Ilan University

Ramat-Gan, Israel

February, 2014

This work was carried out under the supervision of Prof. Stephen Z.
Levine Faculty of Social Welfare and Health Sciences, Haifa University,
and Prof. Joseph Glicksohn Department of Criminology, Bar-Ilan
University

Acknowledgements
This thesis would not have been possible without the guidance, help, and support of
several remarkable people who contributed in their unique way to the preparation and
completion of this thesis.
I would like to thank my family for their endless support, to my wife and best friend,
Carmit, for her personal support, encouragement and love, which made the writing of
this thesis possible. To my parents for their unlimited help and caring which mere
expression of thanks does not suffice.
I would like to express my deepest gratitude and respect to my principle advisor,
mentor and friend Prof. Stephen Z. Levine, for his excellent guidance, caring, and
patience. This amazing journey which started in a brief meeting in your office would
not have reached its end without your invaluable experience and optimism.
I would like to express my appreciation to my second advisor Prof. Joseph Glicksohn
for his personal support and good advice, and whose expertise and understanding,
added considerably to the writing of this thesis.
A very special thanks goes to Chief-Superintendent Meir Dov Berkovich of the Israeli
Police and Mr. Efi Braver from the Ministry of Social Affairs, of the state of Israel,
which their support in acquiring the necessary data for the current thesis was
indispensable.


Chapter 1 - Introduction.................................................................................................1
Thesis background and overview...............................................................................1
The criminal career paradigm ....................................................................................1
Theories......................................................................................................................3
Taxonomic theory ................................................................................................3
The general theory of crime ...............................................................................3
The extension of the orthogenetic theory to criminal behavior.....................4
Empirical studies ........................................................................................................4
1 Study...................................................................................................................5
2 Study...................................................................................................................5
3 Study...................................................................................................................6
4 Study...................................................................................................................6
Summary ....................................................................................................................7
Chapter 2 - A National Population Based Examination of the Association between
Age-Versatility Trajectories and Recidivism Rates.......................................................8
Chapter 3 - Elaboration on Specialization in Crime: Disaggregating Age Cohort
Effects ..........................................................................................................................20
Chapter 4 - Versatility and Specialization Transitions from Early Adolescence to
Early Adulthood: Hidden Markov Modelling of a National Population-Based Juvenile
Offender Dataset ..........................................................................................................44
Chapter 5 - Trajectories of Crime and Familial Characteristics: A Longitudinal
National Population-Based Study ................................................................................80
Chapter 6 - Discussion ...............................................................................................107
Theoretical integration and contribution ................................................................108
Contribution to the criminal career paradigm ........................................................111
Limitations .............................................................................................................112
Future studies .........................................................................................................112

Policy implications.................................................................................................113
Conclusions ............................................................................................................114
References..................................................................................................................115
Appendix 1 - Analysis of Versatility Levels Across the Trajectory Groups .............119
Analytic strategy ....................................................................................................120
Results ....................................................................................................................120

Abstract
Objectives: Three competing theories are examined that may explain different aspects
of persistency and continuity within the criminal careers paradigm. These theories
are the general theory of crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990) that states that low selfcontrol interacts with opportunities to explain crime, taxonomic theory that posits that
there are primarily two groups of offenders who assume different courses of offending
(Moffitt, 1993), and the extension of the orthogenetic principle to criminal behavior
that states that delinquency unfolds from diversification of the types of offenses at a
young age, to more stabilized and patterned type of offenses with aging (Le Blanc &
Loeber, 1998). The current thesis specifically aims to compare these theories by
examining the dimensions of persistence and continuity (i.e., offending rate or
frequency, recidivism, specialization-versatility) in offending within the criminal
career paradigm. To compare the theories four issues were empirically examined: (a)
study 1 examined the relationship between versatility-specialization offending pattern
that develops during early stages of the criminal career and persistence offending
behavior (i.e., recidivism); (b) study 2 examined trends in specialization-versatility
offending pattern from adolescence to early adulthood; (c) study 3 extended current
methodological approaches to versatility-specialization by using a novel statistical
approach to examine versatility-specialization transition dynamics with aging to
inform theory; and (c) study 4 examined the extent of heterogeneity in offending
frequency (i.e., trajectory groups) and group offending characteristics.
Methods: The current thesis is based on four studies. Studies 1, 3, and 4 utilized the
national Israeli population-based crime registry of all first and subsequent juvenile
offenders from 1996 to 2008 (N=51,777 juvenile offenders). Study 2 is based on
offending data collected by the California Youth Authority (CYA), a rehabilitation
facility, between 1964 and 1965 at the Deuel Vocational Institution (DVI) in Tracy,
California (N=3,652 offenders) and represent the a priori choice of a high-risk
offender group. Multiple statistical approaches were used to examine the current
thesis research objectives. Study 1 included a semi-parametric group-based model of
latent age-versatility trajectories of police contacts that was subsequently used as a
risk factor in Cox-regression modeling to predict recidivism. Study 2 analyzed trends
in offending versatility based on calculating transition matrices of the Forward
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Specialization Coefficient (FSC) measure. Study 3 utilized Hidden Markov Modeling

(HMMs) to examine the transition dynamics between versatility and specialization.
Study 4 used a semi-parametric group-based modeling to identify latent trajectory
groups based on offense frequency, the Marascuilo procedure to examine the null
hypothesis that the proportions of variables are equal across the trajectory groups, and
Generalized Estimation Equation modeling (GEE) to examine specializationversatility differences between the trajectory groups.
Results: Group-based trajectory modeling in study 1 identified two groups that
characterized the age-versatility curve of police contacts before first conviction.
These trajectory-groups were labeled as the versatility and the specialization groups.
After controlling for 19 documented demographic, familial, and criminogenic risk
factors, Cox regression showed that juvenile offenders belonging to the versatility
group were at increased risk of recidivism compared to offenders in the specialization
group. In study 2 the results of FSCs indicated that, there exists a modest tendency of
increased specialization with aging, and that the attrition of infrequent offenders over
an extensive period did not influence specialization trends among high-risk youth.
Study 3 results of Hidden Markov Modeling showed that (a) the quantitative aspect of
versatility-specialization transition dynamics can be described by three latent states
termed versatility state, intermediate state, and specialization state; (b) there was a
general proclivity of switching into the versatility state during adolescence and early
adulthood; and (c) the switch between states for a minority of offenders did not occur
abruptly, but rather in a stage-sequential process. Group-based trajectory modelling
in study 4 indicated that juvenile offenders assume five different trajectories of
criminal development from early adolescence to mid adulthood. Results based on the
Marascuilo procedure indicated that imprisonment of parents, brothers and sisters was
associated with developing a trajectory of persistent offending. GEE modeling of
specialization-versatility levels across trajectory groups indicated that persistent
offenders showed higher versatility levels compared to low-rate offenders.
Conclusions: The empirical finding in study 1 which indicated that the versatility
pattern for police contacts that develops during early stages of offending predicts
subsequent recidivism for convictions highlight the independent relationship between
offense frequency and variety. Based on study 1 the results suggest that Moffitt's
taxonomic theory may be regarded as a plausible theoretical explanation for the
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emerging latent trajectory groups of police contacts that predict recidivism, and hence
offer an explanation of offense frequency. The results of study 2 suggest that
although offenders tend to become more versatile as they age, there is also a modest
trend of increased specialization with aging. These results are generally consistent
with the general theory of crime that state that in late adulthood when the rate of
offense frequency declines, offense diversity tends to decline as well, and with the
extension of the orthogenetic principle to criminal behaviour as specialization with
aging was also observed. The results of study 3 validate that the general norm is that
of versatility, but also suggests that the transition between versatility and
specialization were stage-sequential as implied by the extension of the orthogenetic
theory to criminal behavior. The emerging trajectory groups and their characteristics
in study 4 are generally consistent with the taxonomic theory. They highlight
criminological debate between typological and "mono-causal theories", where the
former emphasize the presence of homogeneous clusters of offenders, whereas the
latter deny their existence. Collectively, the current thesis highlights how
comprehensive (population-based) methodology, advanced statistics (i.e., latent
modeling) and competing theories of crime are informative of one-another in
explaining specific aspects of continuity and persistence in the criminal career
paradigm.

III

Chapter 1 - Introduction
Thesis background and overview
The main dimensions of criminal careers are offending onset, offending rate or
frequency, persistence and continuity (e.g., recidivism), length, and desistence
(DeLisi & Piquero, 2011). Theoretically, all studies in the current thesis compare
competing hypotheses derived from the general theory of crime (Gottfredson &
Hirschi, 1990), the taxonomic theory (Moffitt, 1993), and the application of the
orthogenetic theory (Werner, 1948) to criminal behavior (Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998).
Study 1 point to changes in versatility during early adolescence years and their
association to future criminal behavior. Study 2 extends study 1 by examining a
different age-range (hence developmental period) and shows a modest increase in
specialization from adolescence to early adulthood. Extending the use of an
aggregate specialization-versatility measure in study 2, study 3 examines transitions
between specialization and versatility with Hidden Markov Models (HMM) using
different switching patterns. Extending the notion of subgroup identification in study
3, study 4 identifies the development of offending over time with group-based
trajectory modeling and their associated criminal, demographic and versatility levels.
The criminal career paradigm
The criminal career paradigm describes the development of offending
according to the following primary dimensions: offending onset, offending rate or
frequency, persistence and continuity (e.g., recidivism), length, and desistence
(DeLisi & Piquero, 2011). The dimension of persistence and continuity is a key
aspect of criminal careers because of its important implication to theory and public
policy alike (Delisi et al., 2011; DeLisi & Piquero, 2011; Farrington, 1997;
Farrington, Snyder, & Finnegan, 1988; Piquero, Farrington, & Blumstein, 2007;
Piquero, Paternoster, Mazerolle, Brame, & Dean, 1999). For example, the
identification of chronic offenders early in their criminal career will allow to target
intervention programs that will prevent them from pursuing their criminal inclinations
(Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1986). Accordingly, this thesis focuses on the persistence
and continuity dimensions of the criminal career.

Criminal career advocates express offending persistency and continuity in

terms of changes in offending over time (Piquero et al., 2001). A key aspect of
persistence offending is the extent to which specialization or versatility is shown over
the criminal career. Its theoretical and practical importance led research to embrace
and refine new methodologies to uncover its dynamic properties (Baker, Falco
Metcalfe, & Jennings, 2013). Another prominent aspect suggests that different
offending patterns lead to homogeneous group of offenders that can be prospectively
identified and studied (Blokland, Nagin, & Nieuwbeerta, 2005).
The present thesis addresses four issues of persistence and continuity in
offending. The first issue focuses on examining the relationship between the
versatility pattern that develops during early stages of the criminal career and
persistent offending behavior (i.e., recidivism). This is relevant and first studied,
since theories (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990; Moffitt, 1993; Moffitt, Caspi,
Harrington, & Milne, 2002) suggest that the frequency and variety of offending are
positively correlated (Monahan & Piquero, 2009), and that a persistent offending lifestyle is determined during adolescence years (Moffitt, 1993).
The second study aim is to examine trends in specialization-versatility from
the adolescent years to early adulthood. This follows directly from the first study in
this thesis since the results of study 1 showed that various versatility-specialization
trends can emerge during adolescence. The extent to which offenders change their
specialization-versatility offending pattern according to theoretical propositions (see
for example, Delisi et al., 2011; Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998) is examined in the second
thesis study.
Third, the thesis examines the structural dynamics between specialization and
versatility from adolescence to early adulthood. This follows from the second study
in the thesis because the results showed a modest trend of increased specialization
from adolescence to early adulthood. This trend was observed, however, by using an
aggregate measure of specialization-versatility. As a result, the analysis of the
transition dynamics between specialization and versatility is precluded. The third
manuscript in the thesis offers new methodology to uncover the structural dynamic
facets between versatility and specialization.
Fourth, theory suggests that various specialization-versatility offending
patterns may differentiate between homogeneous groups of offenders. These
theoretical expectations are expressed in study 3, which indicated that versatility2

specialization transition dynamics is best described by three latent states. This

suggests that a parsimonious description of offense patterning can be achieved by
searching for subgroups of offenders with a similar developmental offending pattern.
Research suggests that one of the analytic methods that provide the necessary
framework for analyzing longitudinal data on crime is a latent longitudinal technique
(Jennings & Reingle, 2012). For example, theories like the taxonomic theory require
an appropriate analytic technique to identify the life-course persistent offenders who
embrace diverse offending patterns compared to adolescence-limited offenders who
are expected to exhibit far less versatility with age (Mazerolle, Brame, Paternoster,
Piquero, & Dean, 2000). Accordingly, the thesis ends by identifying homogeneous
groups of offenders across their entire criminal career using latent trajectory analysis
(Nagin, 2005) and their association to specialization-versatility levels and other risk
factors.
Theories
Three competing key theories are examined in this thesis to explain
persistence and change in offending over time. This section provides a brief overview
of these theories, and they are elaborated on in the manuscripts that this thesis is based
on.
Taxonomic theory
Taxonomic theory (Moffitt, 1993) suggests that there are primarily two groups
of criminal offenders. The first group, labeled life-course persistent offenders,
engages in criminal behavior across their life course. The second group, labeled
adolescence-limited offenders, engages in criminal behavior for a short and temporary
period during adolescence. These groups assume different courses of offending.
The general theory of crime
Contrary to taxonomic theory, Gottfredson and Hirschi's general theory of
crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990) suggests that low self-control is responsible for
criminal behavior. The theory proposes that self-control is a continuous attribute
where those who have lower levels of self-control should exhibit higher levels of
offending versatility (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990; Piquero et al., 1999). This
3

suggests that various patterns of offending development across age among juvenile
offenders appear likely.
The extension of the orthogenetic theory to criminal behavior
Faced with a lack of long term criminal-course predictive validity, previous
research (Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998; Piquero et al., 1999) suggests that the
orthogenetic principle (Werner, 1948) may explain changes across the criminal career.
According to the theory (Werner, 1948), behavior occurs through three developmental
stages. These stages suggest that human behavior develops from being (i) organized
in a very general and undifferentiated way, to (ii) having distinct parts, and ultimately
evolving into (iii) an integrated hierarchy. Thus, theoretically during this progression
behavior develops toward being more patterned and organized. In applying these
theoretical stages to criminal activity, it is contended that delinquency unfolds from
diversification of the types of offenses at a young age, to more stabilized and
patterned type of offenses (i.e., specialization) with maturation (Le Blanc & Loeber,
1998).
Empirical studies
The current thesis is based on four studies. Studies 1, 3, and 4 are based on
the Israeli offending data, whereas study 2 is based on offending data collected by the
California Youth Authority (CYA), a rehabilitation facility, between 1964 and 1965 at
the Deuel Vocational Institution (DVI) in Tracy, California. As indicated earlier,
study 2 extends study 1 by examining the specialization-versatility offending pattern
for a different age-range. To examine changes in specialization-versatility offending
pattern across age, theory and empirical studies highlight the value of controlling for
age of onset (see for example, Piquero et al., 1999). Offenders in the Israeli data,
however, all have onset ages that occurred during adolescence years. To
appropriately compare differences in the specialization-versatility offending pattern,
research should also employ a group of offenders whose offending onset occurred
during adulthood. The data collected in the California Youth Authority (CYA), at the
Deuel Vocational Institution (DVI) in Tracy, California, provide the necessary
conditions to accurately reflect changes in specialization-versatility offending pattern
while controlling for age of onset. For this reason study 2 utilizes a different sample

to the remaining samples to examine specialization-versatility offending patterns with

maturation. Accordingly, the current section provides an overview of the empirical
studies examined to compare the theories.
Study 1
Research into juvenile recidivism generally indicates a number of factors that
are associated with recidivism. Criminal factors such as age of onset and criminal
history and demographic factors such as gender and ethnicity (Baumer, 1997; Benda
& Tollett, 1999; Bowles & Florackis, 2007; Dejong, 1997; Spohn & Holleran, 2002)
have been associated with recidivism. In the current application of the criminal career
paradigm, versatility trajectories that develop during early stages of the criminal
career are incorporated as developmental risk factors, and their utility in predicting
recidivism is examined. This is relevant because theory suggests that a persistent
offending life-style is determined during the adolescent years (Moffitt, 1993).
Collectively, the idea expressed in the first manuscript that was accepted for
publication in Journal of Criminal Justice (Yonai, Levine, & Glicksohn, 2013b)
examines the association between versatility trajectories that develops during early
stages of the criminal career and future recidivism, while controlling for other
documented risk factors.
Study 2
Specialization or versatility is a main area of research for criminal career
theorists. Specialization is defined as the tendency to repeat the same offense type in
successive crimes (e.g., Nieuwbeerta, Blokland, Piquero, & Sweeten, 2011;
Paternoster, Brame, Piquero, Mazerolle, & Dean, 1998). Early studies indicate that
criminals are versatile, and commit a variety of crimes, rather than specialize in a
select group of crimes. Generally, all three theories contend that a specialization
offending pattern is both theoretically and empirically plausible. Issues concerning
specialization development with aging have received increasing attention (Armstrong,
2008). In the traditional criminal career view, during early stages of the criminal
career the offender samples a wide variety of offenses. He then converges on those
offenses that adhere to his taste or skills (Delisi et al., 2011). Viewed this way, later
stages of the criminal career should become more specialized. This theoretical view

is examined in the second manuscript that was accepted for publication in Crime &
Delinquency (Yonai, Levine, & Glicksohn, 2013a) using traditional specializationversatility measures, such as the Forward Specialization Coefficient - FSC (Farrington
et al., 1988).
Study 3
One of the most notable versatility-specialization measures is the diversity
index. Compared to the FSC, the strengths of the diversity index are to (a) disregard
the order of offenses, (b) analyse at the individual age and not at the aggregated level;
and (c) account for all and not only the most serious first crime at a given age.
Accordingly, we examine the assumption that aging increases the likelihood of
specialization (Armstrong, 2008; Piquero et al., 1999) using the diversity index.
Unlike previous research, however, the thesis extends current knowledge by uniquely
utilizing a statistical methodology known as Hidden Markov Models to examine
versatility-specialization transition dynamics with aging. The latter argument is
expressed in the third manuscript.
Study 4
Criminal careers research highlights several other key issues relevant to the
study of persistence and the continuity of offending. These include: the heterogeneity
of criminal careers, the use of a sample rather than population-based research, the
variations in demographic and criminal risk factors across trajectory groups (Piquero
et al., 2007), and a lack of research on the association between developmental patterns
of crime and imprisonment of family members (Murray & Farrington, 2005).
Accordingly, the fourth manuscript that was accepted for publication in Crime &
Delinquency (Yonai, Levine, & Glicksohn, In Press), uniquely examined the extent to
which there exist homogeneous group of offenders based on a population-based
dataset followed for a relatively long period. The analysis also examines whether the
emerging offending trajectories are distinct and are associated with: criminal career
dimensions, demographic factors, and familial imprisonment in first-to third-degree
family relatives. Subsequently, we analyzed specialization-versatility levels across
age among the trajectory groups. The latter analysis is presented in Appendix 1 and
was not included in the original manuscript.

Summary
This chapter overviewed theoretically, methodologically and empirically
issues in this thesis. The flow between theory and method is explained as is the flow
from studies one to four, respectively. The thesis examines the relationship between
early versatility trends and future recidivism. These observed trends during early
stages of the criminal career may change with aging into increased specialization.
These changes are further examined across the entire offender's criminal career. Next,
the transition dynamics between versatility and specialization are examined with
refined statistical methodology. Finally, the extent to which there exist homogeneous
group of offenders with varying specialization-versatility levels and different familial,
demographic, and criminological factors is explored.

Chapter 2 - A National Population Based Examination of the

Association between Age-Versatility Trajectories and Recidivism
Rates
As suggested in the introduction (chapter 1), the present thesis focuses on the
criminal career paradigm dimension of persistence and continuity. This dimension
suggests that offenders may display different specialization-versatility offending
patterns that may predict future persistence offending behavior (i.e., different aspects
of the criminal career are associated; Monahan & Piquero, 2009). The study in
chapter 2 focuses on the relationship between specialization-versatility pattern and
persistence offending behavior (i.e., recidivism). This chapter briefly discusses the
theories that are associated with offending specialization-versatility and the
development of persistence offending behavior.
A prominent theoretical assumption among criminal career advocates is that
there is a positive association between the volume and versatility of criminal
behavior. Studying the association between different aspects of the criminal career is
relevant to theory and policy alike (Delisi et al., 2011; DeLisi & Piquero, 2011;
Farrington, 1997; Piquero et al., 2007). The basis of this relationship is wellgrounded in many theories that dispute or embrace the criminal career paradigm
(Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990; Moffitt, 1993; Moffitt et al., 2002). These theories
propose that long-term offending is associated with a diverse offending pattern. This
proposition is congruent with prior empirical research that has shown that "the trend
in diversity scores generally mirror the trends in the risk of offending" (Fergusson,
Horwood, & Nagin, 2000, p. 538). Based on these theories and current research the
proposition is examined that offenders who assume a more versatile offending
trajectory are likely to exhibit greater risk of recidivism.
Research into juvenile recidivism has shown that criminal factors, such as age
of onset and criminal history and demographic factors, such as male sex and minority
ethnic status (Baumer, 1997; Benda & Tollett, 1999; Bowles & Florackis, 2007;
Dejong, 1997; Spohn & Holleran, 2002) are associated with recidivism.
Developmental risk factors, however, are generally not considered in predicting future
recidivism. Previous research has contended that the value of incorporating
developmental predictors (also termed dynamic risk factors) in recidivism studies go
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beyond a priori risk classification of offenders (Cottle, Lee, & Heilbrun, 2001). The
identification of developmental risk factors allow for the targeting of dynamic (timedependent) risk-reduction intervention programs.
Collectively, the current study examines versatility trajectories that develop
during early stages of the criminal career. Pre-conviction versatility trajectories are
incorporated as developmental risk factors, and their utility in predicting recidivism is
examined. This is relevant because theory and research suggest that a persistence
offending life-style is determined during adolescence years (see for example, Moffitt,
1993). Incorporating versatility trajectories as risk factors allows predicting
recidivism while controlling for unobserved individual differences (measured through
age-versatility group membership) (Piquero, 2008), while accounting for various
documented risk factors. This is presented in the first manuscript (chapter 2) that was
published in Journal of Criminal Justice (Yonai et al., 2013b). In sum, the next
chapter examines the association between dynamic versatility trajectories that may
develop during early stages of the criminal career and future recidivism, while
controlling for 19 documented risk factors.

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Chapter 3 - Elaboration on Specialization in Crime: Disaggregating

Age Cohort Effects
The last chapter (empirical study 1) indicated that specialization-versatility
offending patterns can be represented by two latent groups labeled as the
specialization and versatility groups. These two groups and their diversification
characteristics point to the notion of versatility-specialization trends. The extent that
specialization-versatility offending patterns change across the criminal career is
examined in study 2 (chapter 3). The theories that highlight specialization-versatility
development and their empirical analysis have the potential to inform research and
policy whether offending develops systematically or in a non-random manner (Le
Blanc & Loeber, 1998; Piquero et al., 1999).
Specialization or versatility is a main area of research for criminal career
theorists. Prior research expressed its importance by indicating that "Studies of
specialization or versatility in offending careers are important ways of shedding light
on the number of dimensions underlying delinquent behavior" (Farrington et al.,
1988, p. 462). A single theoretical construct would then mean that offenders are
versatile so knowledge of the type of offense committed during a delinquent act
would not be useful to predict the subsequent offending, and interventions would need
to target general behavior. If, however, offending reflects a specific theoretical
construct, then offenders may be assumed to specialize and knowledge of the type of
offense committed during a delinquent act would predict the type of offense
committed on subsequent delinquent act (Farrington et al., 1988).
Specialization is defined as the tendency to repeat the same offense type on
successive crimes (e.g., Nieuwbeerta et al., 2011; Paternoster et al., 1998). Early
studies were based on examining specialization using transition matrices (i.e., the
joint distribution of two consecutive offence types) and comparisons of crime
involvement (Baker et al., 2013). These studies indicate that criminals are versatile,
and commit a variety of crimes, rather than specialize in a select group of crimes
(Armstrong, 2008; Armstrong & Britt, 2004; Farrington et al., 1988; Nieuwbeerta et
al., 2011; Piquero et al., 1999). The theoretical and practical implications of
20

versatility-specialization research, however, have led researchers to assume new

methodologies and refine their strategic techniques to examine the presence of
specialization. These studies have since revealed a slight yet significant tendency to
specialize (Armstrong, 2008; Armstrong & Britt, 2004; Guerette, Stenius, &
McGloin, 2005; Lynam, Piquero, & Moffitt, 2004; Osgood & Schreck, 2007; Piquero
et al., 1999).
Theoretically, the taxonomic theory (Moffitt, 1993), the general theory of
crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990), and the extension of the orthogenetic theory to
offending behavior (Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998), make different propositions with
respect to specialization-versatility offending pattern. There are, however, some
similarities that may reconcile the debate regarding specialization-versatility across
theories. Taxonomic theory assumes that offenders can be clustered into an
adolescence-limited group, or into a life-course group. The former group engages in
criminal behavior for a short and temporary period during adolescence. They are
expected to exhibit far less versatility with age (Mazerolle et al., 2000), and they tend
to demonstrate a proclivity toward specialization. The latter group embraces wide
and diverse offending activities, "including types of crimes that are often
committed by lone offenders" (Moffitt, 1993, p. 695).
The general theory of crime indicates that offenders are generalist, committing
various types of crime. According to theory, low self-control increases the likelihood
that a person will perceive more situations as possessing criminal opportunities, and
will engage in versatile criminal behaviors (McGloin, Sullivan, Piquero, & Pratt,
2007). Low-self-control, however, suggests that offenders may display specialize
offending pattern that is a function of opportunities and circumstances and not the
characteristics of the offender (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1994) . Given the interaction
between self-control and opportunities, it is probable that offenders will sometimes
display a specialized offending pattern (Baker et al., 2013).
The extension of the orthogenetic theory to offending assumes that
delinquency unfolds from diversification of the types of offenses at a young age, to
more stabilized and patterned type of offenses (i.e., specialization) with maturation
(Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998). Specifically, Le Blanc and Loeber contended that " the
course of offending and deviant behavior is predictable, hierarchical, and orderly" (Le
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Blanc & Loeber, 1998, p. 118). From a criminal career point of view, this would
suggest a general switching among crime types through early stages of the criminal
career, where later stages becoming more specialized (Delisi et al., 2011).
In sum, all three theories contend that specialization in offending with
maturation is both theoretically and empirically plausible. These theoretical views are
examined in the second manuscript that was accepted for publication in Crime &
Delinquency (Yonai et al., 2013a) using traditional specialization-versatility
measures, such as the Forward Specialization Coefficient - FSC (Farrington et al.,
1988).

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Chapter 4 - Versatility and Specialization Transitions from Early

Adolescence to Early Adulthood: Hidden Markov Modelling of a
National Population-Based Juvenile Offender Dataset
In study 2 (Chapter 3) the results demonstrated a modest trend of increase
specialization from adolescence to early adulthood. This trend was based on the
Forward Specialization Coefficient (FSC) that is an aggregated measure of
specialization-versatility. This diversity measure precludes the analysis of the
transition dynamics between specialization and versatility that require an individuallevel specialization and versatility index. For example, the extent that the transition
from versatility to specialization occurs in a stage-sequential manner cannot be
examined based on this widely used method. Accordingly, the next chapter
(empirical study 3) introduces a novel methodology to examine the extent to which
specialization-versatility continuum can be represented by latent groups of offenders.
A notable aspect of this novel methodology examines the transition dynamics (i.e., the
probability of switching between the latent states) which may suggests that
specialization-versatility changes in a non-random course of development with aging.
The use of the FSC, as presented in study 2 (Chapter 3), to examine
versatility-specialization is not without limitations. The FSC collapses offenses into
an aggregated number of categories. Since the FSC is based on offense type and not
the individual offenders (Sullivan, McGloin, Pratt, & Piquero, 2006) arguments at the
individual-level are precluded. Also, the literature offers no agreed way to categorize
crime to examine versatility (Mazerolle et al., 2000). Research has shown, however,
that the number of crime categories examined has an impact on conclusions regarding
the extent of specialization or versatility (Sullivan et al., 2006). For example,
research has shown that aggregating offenses into a large number of categories (i.e.,
narrow offense schemes) may bias results and hence conclusions towards versatility,
whereas fewer categories (i.e., broader offense schemes) may bias the results and
hence conclusions toward more specialization than versatility (Sullivan et al., 2006).
This is because the target for repeat offending within a broad offense scheme (e.g.,
property category) is much larger than a specific crime (e.g., auto vehicle theft).
The theoretical and practical implications of versatility-specialization research
has led researchers to use new methodologies and refine their statistical techniques to

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examine the presence of specialization (Guerette et al., 2005; Lynam et al., 2004;
McGloin, Sullivan, & Piquero, 2009; Osgood & Schreck, 2007). For these reasons
researchers use other versatility-specialization measures. One of the most notable
versatility-specialization measures is the diversity index (Mazerolle et al., 2000;
McGloin et al., 2009). Compared to the FSC that analyzes aggregate level offenses,
the advantages of the diversity index are to (a) analyse offenders at the individual age
level; and (b) account for all and not only the most serious first crime at a given age.
Accordingly, the assumption that aging increases the likelihood of specialization
(Armstrong, 2008; Piquero et al., 1999) is examined using the diversity index in the
next chapter.
Unlike previous research, however, the next chapter extends current
methodological approaches to versatility-specialization by using Hidden Markov
Models (HMMs) to examine versatility-specialization transition dynamics with aging.
This methodology allows for parsimonious representation of offending pattern in
similar vein as put forward by the trajectory analysis (Nagin, 1999, 2005). Unlike
trajectory analysis that does not permit offenders to switch between groups (e.g., from
versatility to specialization), in HMMs offenders may alter their course of offending
by changing group membership (Bijleveld & Mooijaart, 2003).
In sum, the next chapter (study 3) extends the existing literature by using
HMMs advantages to achieve parsimonious description of specialization-versatility
continuum. Also, based on the advantages of HMMs, study 3 examines whether
offenders switch between specialization and versatility abruptly or by assuming a
stage-sequential developmental course. The competing theoretical frameworks tested
in the chapter are the general theory of crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990),
taxonomic theory (Moffitt, 1993), and the extension of the orthogenetic theory to
criminal behavior (Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998).

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Chapter 5 - Trajectories of Crime and Familial Characteristics: A

Longitudinal National Population-Based Study
The previous chapter examined specialization-versatility offending pattern
across the criminal career. It identified that versatility-specialization transition
dynamics are best described by three latent states of (versatility, inter-mediate, and
specialization states). Theoretically and empirically, however, offense variety (i.e.,
specialization-versatility) and offending frequency are positively related (Monahan &
Piquero, 2009). For example, the taxonomic theory (Moffitt, 1993) argue that lifecourse persistent offenders exhibit high-rate offending frequency and participate in a
wide variety of offense types. The general theory of crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi,
1990) makes a similar assumption, where offenders who engage in many offenses will
also engage in a variety of criminal acts (see also, Monahan & Piquero, 2009).
Accordingly, the next chapter examines whether there exist homogeneous groups of
offenders based on offending frequency and across their criminal career.
Study 3 (chapter 4) considered the type of offense committed by the offender,
and so HMMs were a suitable methodology for latent longitudinal analysis of
offending pattern (see also, Bijleveld & Mooijaart, 2003). The next chapter (study 4)
aims to identify homogeneous offender groups from adolescence to mid-adulthood,
based on their offending frequency. Theoretically-driven, research suggests that
group-based trajectory analysis (Nagin, 2005) is the most suitable framework to
analyze longitudinal crime data based on offending frequency. This also facilitates
the comparison of the current research and past results (Bijleveld & Mooijaart, 2003;
Jennings & Reingle, 2012).
The next chapter (study 4) uses group-based trajectory analysis to examine the
association between homogeneous groups of offenders based on their offendingfrequency and their specialization-versatility levels and other risk factors. Special
emphasis is given to the association between long-tern offending pattern and
imprisonment of first- second- and third degree familial relatives. This is relevant
since research based on small samples has emphasized, for example, that parental
imprisonment increases the likelihood of delinquency (Huebner & Gustafson, 2007;
Murray & Farrington, 2008). Accordingly, the next chapter aims to contribute to the

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literature by examining the extent to which criminal trajectories are distinct and
associated with: criminal career dimensions, demographic factors, and familial
imprisonment in up to third-degree family relations.
Proponents of the criminal career paradigm embrace the notion that offenders
can be clustered into a number of distinct groups that can be prospectively identified
and studied based on their offending frequency (Blokland et al., 2005). Early research
findings (Wolfgang, Figlio, & Sellin, 1972) contribute to the belief that offenders
have distinct offending pattern, and that there exist a small group of chronic offenders
that are responsible for a large portion of crime. Various taxonomic or typological
theories have emerged postulating that "offender population is composed of
subgroups that follow distinctive trajectories of offending that themselves may reflect
different etiologies" (Blokland et al., 2005, p. 920).
The relevant theoretical framework for the current research is based on three
prominent theories. First, the taxonomic theory (Moffitt, 1993), which suggests that
offenders can be classified into two distinct groups based on their criminal behavior.
Second, the general theory of crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990) which suggests
that regardless of stable between individual differences, as offenders age, the rate of
offending decline due to their self-control. Third, the extension of the orthogenetic
theory to criminal behavior (Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998), which suggests that
delinquency unfolds from diversification of the types of offenses at a young age, to
more stabilized and patterned type of offenses (i.e., specialization) with maturation.
To test these theoretical prospects study 4, through the use of longitudinal data that
spawn across the offender's life from childhood to mid-adulthood, examines withinindividual changes in criminal offending using trajectory studies (e.g., Bersani,
Nieuwbeerta, & Laub, 2009; Nagin, 1999, 2005; Sampson & Laub, 2003).
Examination of criminal careers research highlights a lack of research on the
association between developmental patterns of crime and imprisonment of family
members (Murray & Farrington, 2005). Theory and only UK-based research,
however, suggest that parental imprisonment is a traumatic event that has a unique
separation effect. Parental imprisonment increases deviant rearing conditions that
exacerbate the risk of a persistent offending life-style (Juby & Farrington, 2001;
Murray & Farrington, 2008; Murray, Janson, & Farrington, 2007). Research indicates
that imprisoned parents have little opportunity to participate in family life, making
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positive social control and parental attachment difficult (Murray & Farrington, 2008).
Accordingly, theory and select research suggest that separation from the family due to
imprisonment is likely to be associated with developing a trajectory of chronic
persistent offending (Moffitt, 1993). This proposition is tested in the next chapter.
In sum, the next chapter utilizes trajectory-group based analysis to identify
homogeneous offender groups based on their offense frequency from adolescence to
early adulthood and characterizes the trajectory groups. Based on population based
Israeli data, study 4 uniquely elaborates the existing literature in three ways: (a) uses
trajectory-group modeling for comparability with prior studies to test theories (b)
uniquely examines familial imprisonment in first-to third-degree family relations, and
(c) examines in subsequent analysis the extent to which homogeneous offender
groups differ in their specialization-versatility offending patterns while controlling for
the age of each offense. These elaborations contributed to the acceptance of the next
chapter (empirical study 4) for publication in Crime & Delinquency (Yonai et al., In
Press).

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Chapter 6 - Discussion
The current chapter aims to consolidate, overview, and summarize the primary
findings of this thesis. Specifically, it examines the primary findings on persistent
and continuity within the context of the three theories examined herein, and within the
criminal career paradigm. This chapter ends by presenting the thesis limitations,
providing possible directions for future studies, offering policy implications and
discussing conclusions. Before continuing, however, a summary of the four primary
empirical studies in this thesis appears to be appropriate.
The results of the first empirical study in this thesis (Yonai et al., 2013b)
(chapter 2) showed that offenders can be classified into two latent groups based on
their age-versatility curve, and that the emerging versatility groups can predict future
recidivism. This effect persisted after controlling for a number of documented risk
factors. Generally, these results may be considered to be consistent with the
taxonomic theory (Moffitt, 1993). The second empirical study (Yonai et al., 2013a)
(chapter 3) showed descriptively that there is a modest tendency of increased
specialization with maturation, and that the attrition of infrequent offenders over an
extensive period did not influence specialization trends among high risk youth, partly
supporting the general theory of crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990), as well as the
extension of the orthogenetic principle to criminal offending (Le Blanc & Loeber,
1998). The third empirical study (chapter 4) examined the transition dynamics
between versatility and specialization using Hidden Markov Models (HMMs).
Results showed that (a) the quantitative aspect of versatility-specialization transition
dynamics can be described by three latent states termed versatility- intermediate; (b)
the switch between states for some offenders did not occur abruptly, but rather in a
stage-sequential process; and (c) there was a general proclivity of switching into the
versatility state during adolescence and early adulthood. These results are consistent
with the extension of the orthogenetic theory to criminal behavior (Le Blanc &
Loeber, 1998), and the general theory of crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990).
Results from study 4 (Yonai et al., In Press) (chapter 5) indicated that juvenile
offenders assume five different trajectories of criminal development from early
adolescence to mid adulthood. Also, results indicated that imprisonment of parents,
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brothers and sisters was associated with developing a trajectory of persistent

offending. Subsequent analysis of specialization-versatility levels across trajectory
groups indicated that more persistent offenders showed higher versatility levels
compared to low-rate offenders (see appendix 1). These results may be considered to
be consistent with the taxonomic theory. In sum, inconsistencies between the
empirical results in this thesis require theoretical integration.
Theoretical integration and contribution
As was mentioned in the introduction (chapter 1), three theories aim to explain
persistent and continuity based on a specialization-versatility offending pattern and
offense frequency. These theories include the general theory of crime (Gottfredson &
Hirschi, 1990), taxonomic theory (Moffitt, 1993), and the extension of the
orthogenetic theory (Werner, 1948) to criminal offending (Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998).
Across the studies in the current thesis, different methodologies, statistical techniques
and outcomes produce divergent results that correspond to different theoretical
propositions in the literature.
The independent relationship between offense frequency and variety which
was observed in study 1 suggests that the versatility pattern for police contacts that
develops during early stages of offending predicts subsequent recidivism for
convictions. Assuming that a group-based trajectory analysis is a valid statistical
technique to examine homogeneous groups of offenders (Nagin, 1999), then Moffitt's
taxonomic theory may be regarded as a plausible theoretical explanation for the
emerging latent trajectory groups and hence offers an explanation of offense
frequency.
Studies 2 and 3 examine versatility. The results of those studies suggest that
although the general norm is that offenders tend to become more versatile as they age,
for some offenders specialization increased with aging. The modest trend of
increased specialization with maturation obtained in study 2 corresponds to the
propositions outlined in the general theory of crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990),
and to the extension of the orthogenetic principle to criminal behavior (Le Blanc &
Loeber, 1998) (see also chapters 3 and 4).

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The observation that during late adulthood, as the rate of criminal behavior
declines, versatility levels tend also to decline requires explanation. The general
theory of crime states that the crime rate reduction is attributable to a reduction in
self-control (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990). Gottfredson and Hirschi state that since
crime and analogous behaviors stem from low self-control, then, there will be much
versatility among offenders in the criminal acts in which they engage (see,
Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990, p. 91). Accordingly, a reduction in self-control will
result in an offending versatility decrement. The extension of the orthogenetic
principle to criminal behavior suggests that the initial period of criminal behavior may
be general and non-specific (i.e., versatile), and later periods of criminal behavior
become more patterned (i.e., specialized) with maturation (Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998).
This suggests that offenders, during early periods of their criminal career, should
experience a wide array of criminal behavior, followed by a gradual narrowing of the
offense repertoire, especially among more persistent offenders (see also, Piquero et
al., 1999). Also, study 3 suggests that the development of versatility-specialization
consists of multiple distinct states. These states were termed versatility- intermediate- and specialization states. Although some offenders switch between
versatility and specialization the switch did not occur abruptly but rather in a stagesequential procedure. This sequential development is consistent with the extension of
the orthogenetic theory to criminal behavior (Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998) (See chapter
4).
The current thesis results (chapter 5) converge with past trajectory studies in
terms of the number of latent trajectory groups and their offending pattern (D'Unger,
Land, McCall, & Nagin, 1998; Piquero et al., 2007). The correspondence between the
current empirical results and theoretical propositions is at issue. Generally, the
current research results highlight the criminological debate between typological
theories and "mono-causal theories" (Blokland et al., 2005, p. 922). The former
emphasize the presence of homogeneous clusters of offenders, whereas the latter deny
their existence. For example, based on cumulative evidence from trajectory studies,
Moffitt and her colleagues (Moffitt et al., 2002) extended the taxonomic theory to
include two additional trajectory groups in addition to the life-course and
adolescence-limited offenders groups. The two additional groups were labeled as
recoveries who display antisocial behavior during childhood and at most moderate
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antisocial behavior during adolescence, and abstainers who refrain from antisocial
behavior. Mono-causal theories, such as the general theory of crime (Gottfredson &
Hirschi, 1990) contend that the age-crime curve is invariant and that crime declines
with aging for all offenders. Reconciliation between the typological and mono-causal
theories depends on the acceptance of latent longitudinal methodologies as a valid
statistical methodology to examine longitudinal offending patterns.
The group-based trajectory modeling can be considered a valid methodology
to examine longitudinal crime data based on the following arguments. First, both
typological and mono-causal theories accept the existence of persistent individual
differences in criminal involvement. These individual differences are directly related
to the issue of "persistent unobserved heterogeneity" (Nagin & Land, 1993, p. 336).
In this sense, the group-based trajectory analysis is designed to control for persistent
unobserved heterogeneity by assigning offenders into latent groups based on their
offending frequency. Second, there is a clear association between specified-observed
individual characteristics and distinct offending trajectory. Group-based trajectory
modeling accounts for observed individual characteristics (e.g., social factors and
cognitive functioning) in model estimation, and so allows for the generalization of
findings (Nagin & Land, 1993). Third, the group-based trajectory methodology can
be accepted by mono-causal theories such as the general theory of crime by
suggesting that trajectories may reflect self-control fluctuations across offenders
(Nagin & Land, 1993). Based on the general theory of crime, self-control is an
attribute (which is highly skewed) that all people share to a varying degree (Hirschi &
Gottfredson, 1993). Criminal involvement according to this proposition is "a
reflection of a continuous (but skewed) population distribution of self-control" (Nagin
& Land, 1993, p. 330). These fluctuations may result in varying levels of criminal
involvement which can be examined by longitudinal (latent variable) methodologies
like the group-based trajectory analysis.
The thesis also converges with previous research suggesting that given the
interaction between self-control and opportunities as a predictor of crime, it is
probable that offenders will sometimes display a specialized offending pattern (Baker
et al., 2013). Collectively, it is suggested that each of the theories contribute to the
explanation of the current thesis findings. For example, generally, certain individual
characteristics predict offending trajectory over age (Nagin & Farrington, 1992),
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which may result in different latent trajectory groups as suggested by typological

theory. Their versatility levels increase during adolescence and early adulthood
which correspond to the propositions outlined by mono-causal theories like the
general theory of crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990). For some offenders,
whenever a switch between versatility and specialization arises it happens in a stagesequential manner which corresponds to the extension of the orthogenetic theory to
criminal behavior (Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998).
Contribution to the criminal career paradigm
The current thesis contributes to the criminal career paradigm
methodologically and empirically. Methodologically, the current thesis introduces
HMMs as a novel application of an advanced statistical methodology to analyse
switching in specialization-versatility offending patterns with latent longitudinal
techniques. Traditionally, studies used group-based trajectory modeling (Nagin,
2005) to examine theories like Moffitt's taxonomic theory that is founded on the
criminal career paradigm (Baker et al., 2013). These studies aim to achieve a
parsimonious description of offending pattern by empirically identifying
homogeneous groups of offenders. Compared to group-based trajectory modelling,
HMMs may be more suitable to analyse longitudinal offending data in some
instances. For example, unlike group-based trajectory models, HMMs allow
individuals to switch between latent states (i.e., versatility or specialization) as they
age, and in so doing estimate transition matrices. Also, HMMs permit hypothesis
tests on stage-sequential development (Bijleveld & Mooijaart, 2003). By imposing
several restrictions, HMMs can test a model in which each offenders criminal career
develops from a less to more or a more to less violent types of crime.
Empirically, the current research highlights the appropriateness of controlling
for latent age-versatility groups that develop during early stages of the criminal career
to predict future recidivism (see chapter 2). Controlling for latent age-versatility
groups is directly related to the problem of unobserved individual differences (Nagin
& Land, 1993) which reflect the impact that unmeasured individual or environmental
factors have on individual rates of offending within the criminal career paradigm.

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Limitations
The current results are not without limitations. First, the results are based on
official and not self-report data. Prior research indicates moderate agreement between
self- and official- data sources (Mulvey et al., 2010). Research suggests that applying
trajectory analysis to self-report data may result in more groups compared to official
data (Jennings & Reingle, 2012; Wiesner, Capaldi, & Kim, 2007). Reasons for this
are that information on undetected, and more frequent (but less severe) types of
crimes are assessed by self-report compared with official crime data. Accordingly,
the use of official data in the current study may underestimate the number of ageversatility trajectory groups. The timing of official-report data, however, may be
more accurate than self-report data that are subject to recall bias which may increase
over a large number of years (up to 13 years in the current study). Second, past
research has pointed to the sensitivity of the trajectory analysis methodology when
considering the length of the follow-up period, and the inclusion of incarceration (to
account for exposure time on the streets, Eggleston, Laub, & Sampson, 2004; Piquero
et al., 2001).
Third, interpreting and naming the latent states or groups in HMMs and groupbased trajectory modeling is subjectively based on examining the response properties
within each latent category. This is illustrated by the groups' "distinctness" problem
(Skardhamar, 2010) which suggests that latent groups are required to assume different
behavioral trajectories in order for an efficient labeling assignment to take place. To
date, no objective method has been proposed to aid the naming of latent states or
groups. The lack of an objective naming procedure highlights the methodology
sensitivity to subjective considerations. Finally, although the current study is
longitudinal, causal conclusions are not possible without an experimental study
design. An experimental manipulation, however, would involve making one group
criminal and another not. Hence, no causal conclusions are possible.
Future studies
To account for the limitations in HMMs and group-based trajectory modeling,
future population-based research is appropriate to employ longer follow-up periods to
assess the robustness of these findings. This may capture late-onset of crime (i.e.,

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post adolescence). Future research may also include report data from another source
(e.g., peers, victims) on criminal behavior to achieve a more comprehensive
representation of offending behavior and to identify the appropriate number of
trajectory groups. A relevant, but neglected issue focuses on the relationship between
victimization and offending trajectories over time. This is relevant since research
generally indicates that criminal victimization increases the likelihood of the victims
becoming offenders (see for example, Lauritsen, Sampson, & Laub, 1991).
A relatively new dimension of criminal offending that merits examination
focuses on intergenerational patterns of offending behavior (Thornberry, 2009).
Intergenerational research appears likely to aid in understanding the extent that
offending trajectories as well as versatility and specialization reflect intergenerational
trajectories of the offender's families (in terms of how far does the "apple fall far from
the tree").
Policy implications
From a public policy perspective, the distinction between groups of offenders
highlights the appropriateness of differential treatment and correctional needs for
different groups (Vaughn, DeLisi, Beaver, Perron, & Abdon, 2012). For example,
compared to the remaining groups, the versatility group may be an at-risk group based
on criminogenic and social risk factors. This also highlights risk-periods where
offenders are likely to be most active, most notably during adolescence and early
adulthood where versatility levels peak. These are risk-periods that the system
appears to need to consider in taking preventive measures. Prior research suggests
that parental imprisonment may result in severe parent-child contact conditions
(Murray & Farrington, 2005), which may lead to antisocial behavior in the next
generation. Policy makers may use intermediate sanctions, such as house arrests, and
increased electronic monitoring for offenders who are at increased risk for developing
persistent offending pattern. These sanctions have been previously recommended to
be appropriate alternative forms of punishment (Tonry, 1998).

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Conclusions
In conclusion, despite its limitations the current thesis contributes to the
criminological literature on offending persistent and continuity in the following ways.
First, the thesis indicates that controlling for latent (i.e., unobserved individual
differences) age-versatility groups warrants consideration in recidivism studies. This
is based on the result that the latent age-versatility pattern that emerges during early
stages of the criminal career predicted future recidivism, a finding that persisted after
accounting for a number of documented risk factors in a population-based data
highlighting its robustness. Second, the current thesis indicates that from a
descriptive point of view, specialization-versatility levels modestly increased with
aging for early age of onset cohorts. This trend is also based on the result of
multivariate analysis indicating that as age increased, versatility levels decreased
(which mark an increase in specialization levels). Third, the current thesis utilized a
rather novel approach to analyze the quantitative aspect of versatility-specialization
trends. This approach uncovered the transition dynamics between specialization and
versatility and indicated that the quantitative aspect of versatility-specialization
transition dynamics can be described by three latent states termed versatilityintermediate- and specialization states. This approach also indicated that the switch
between versatility and specialization did not occur abruptly, and that offenders
switch from versatility to specialization with aging. Fourth, the positive relationship
between offending frequency and variety and the appropriateness of the group-based
methodology to uncover latent offending groups based on their offense frequency,
resulted in five distinct groups. Generally, persistent offending groups are associated
with imprisonments of parents, brothers and sisters, and with higher versatility levels
compared to the low-rate offending group.
Collectively, this thesis highlights how comprehensive (population-based)
methodology, advanced statistics (i.e., latent modeling) and competing theories of
crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990; Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998; Moffitt, 1993) are
informative of one-another in explaining specific aspects of continuity and persistence
in the criminal career paradigm.

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Appendix 1 - Analysis of Versatility Levels Across the Trajectory

Groups
In a subsequent analysis, versatility levels across age among the trajectory
groups were examined. The original data was extracted from all juveniles offenders
(n=18,915) from 1996 to 2008 recorded in the National Crime Registry of the State of
Israel. Trajectory analysis identified five distinct groups: low-rate (n=14,541,
76.88%), high-rate adolescence-peak (n=728, 3.85%), low-rate adolescence-peak
(n=1,934, 10.22%), high-rate chronic (n=610, 3.22%) and low-rate chronic (n=1,102,
5.83%). Following the procedures outlined elsewhere (McGloin et al., 2007), we
considered eligible periods, in which person-by-age periods that did not contain two
or more offenses were excluded from analysis. This procedure reduced the number of
offenders to 17,728 offenders (93.7% of the original convicted offenders in the data
registry). The distribution of offenders across groups resembled the original
distribution: low-rate (75.3%), high-rate adolescence-peak (4.1%), low-rate
adolescence-peak (10.9%), high-rate chronic (3.4%) and low-rate chronic (6.2%).
In this chapter a time-independent measure of offending versatilityspecialization was computed for each offender's person-by-age period, using the
diversity measure (Mazerolle et al., 2000; McGloin et al., 2007). The diversity
measure is calculated as
M

D = 1 pm2

(3)

m =1

where p equals the proportion of offenses in crime category m . In the

current study, crime categories consist of aggravated assault, simple assault, drugs,
burglary, auto vehicle theft, larceny theft, public order, and miscellaneous offenses.
The minimum value of the diversity measure is 0, which represents complete
specialization, whereas the maximum value of the diversity measure is 0.875, which
represents high versatility (Dmax = (k-1)/k where k represents the total number of
categories, Mazerolle et al., 2000).

119

Analytic strategy
The present analysis examines whether the specialization-versatility levels
across age for the high-rate adolescence-peak, low-rate adolescence-peak, high-rate
chronic, and low-rate chronic groups significantly differs from specializationversatility levels across age for the low-rate group of offenders. Specializationversatility differences between the trajectory groups were examined using
Generalized Estimation Equation models (GEE) (Liang & Zeger, 1986). The GEE
procedure is a well-suited method for analyzing longitudinal-based data where the
within-subject response variable is non-normal (see also, Everitt & Hothorn, 2006).
In the current analysis, age and trajectory group membership are the independent
variables whereas specialization-versatility level is the dependent variable. To
express the differences between the trajectory groups they were coded as dummy
variables. Note that since there are five trajectory groups', four dummy variables are
required to appropriately represent the entire information. As indicated previously,
the low-rate trajectory group is the reference category in the current analysis. The
analysis was performed using the geepack package (Hjsgaard, Halekoh, & Yan,
2006) in the R-language for statistical computing (R Development Core Team, 2011).
Results
Figure 1 displays the mean versatility levels across age among the versatility
groups. Lower versatility values suggest that offenders are more specialized whereas
higher values indicate that offenders are more versatile. Results indicate that
persistent offenders display higher versatility levels compared to low-rate offenders
during adolescence years. Also, across groups, versatility levels increased during
adolescence years followed by a decrease in versatility levels (i.e., more specialized)
during early adulthood.

120

Figure 1. Mean Versatility Levels Across Age Among the trajectory Groups
Lowrate
Lowrateadolescencepeaked
Lowratechronic

0.65

Highrateadolescencepeaked
Highratechronic

0.6

MeanVersatility

0.55

0.5

0.45

0.4

0.35

0.3

0.25
12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

Age

Analysis of within-individual specialization-versatility levels across age and trajectory

groups using GEE modeling indicated that there are significant (p<.001) differences
between the more persistent offenders compared to the low-rate group in their
specialization-versatility levels (see Table 1).

Table 1. Generalized Estimation Equations results for the Trajectory Groups

Wald

SE

Estimate

6865.40*

0.0058454

0.4843351

Intercept

43.69*

0.0003154

-0.0020850

Age
Low-Rate (Baseline category)

375.97*

0.0032675

0.0633572

Low-Rate Adolescence-Peaked

384.01*

0.0044601

0.0874007

High-Rate Adolescence-Peaked

0.0036135

0.0738361

Low-Rate Chronic

582.39*

0.0046085

0.1112167

High-Rate Chronic

417.52
*

p<0.0001

121

Results displayed in Table 1 suggest that the estimated specialization-versatility levels

for the persistent offender group are significantly higher than the low-rate offender
group. For example, the estimated specialization-versatility levels by age for the
high-rate chronic offenders are 0.111 higher than the low-rate offenders. Similarly,
the estimated specialization-versatility levels across ages for the high-rate
adolescence-peaked offenders are 0.0874 higher than the low-rate offenders. Results
also suggest that age has a significant, albeit modest, negative effect on specializationversatility levels across age. This suggests that aging brings about a modest decline in
versatility levels.

122



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