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Coupons For Jobs 03-08-10
Coupons For Jobs 03-08-10
A Proposal from John F. Gahran, who has no financial interest in this Initiative
Coupons-For-Jobs
Create more jobs now, and keep them, by supporting
local small business
OVERVIEW
The key culprit behind lost retail, wholesale, and manufacturing jobs is low demand for products.
One approach that could create many lasting jobs fast is the Coupons-for-Jobs Initiative.
Over a 6 month period consumers in high unemployment counties in each state would receive
time-limited (1 month at a time) government Coupons-For-Jobs to purchase designated goods
from local small businesses (500 employees or less). This creates retail jobs.
As retailers replenish their inventories, they create demand for jobs at wholesalers who repeat
this replenishment chain with manufacturers, which creates more jobs (hopefully in the USA).
This approach can create 1.24 million new jobs within 8 months of
implementation.
This is much more efficient than the $55-95,000 per job of the other already
announced Programs….. and….the jobs start one month after the implementation
month as opposed to 8 to 18 months for the other programs.
Monthly Jobs added from Retail, Whsl and Mfg. from Coupons-For-Jobs
Program
After the 8th implementation month, these jobs will be sustained, partly from the increased retail
spending by those who were hired through this program and from similar retail spending from
other previously authorized jobs saving/creating programs that have a somewhat delayed
significant jobs increase.
The demand for increased employment in retail, wholesale and domestic manufacturing
industries comes as a result of increased demand for the products and services provided
by these sectors of the economy.
1,241,490 Projected Equivalent * Jobs to be added through the 8th month after
implementation. *(Initially, some workers will have their hours increased before others are
hired.)
12.00%
10.68% 10.27%
% Unemployment
9.71%
9.04 8.34%
10.00%
7.73%
8.00% 7.23% 7.04%
6.95%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
Requires Issuing $17.1 Billion of Targeted Coupons-For-Jobs This is much less than the
presently unused TARP funds and other similarly planned but not yet issued funds to improve
GDP, employment, etc.
$18.00
$16.00 $200.0
$14.00
$12.00 $150.0
$10.00
$8.00 $100.0
$6.00
$4.00 $50.0
$2.00
$0.00 $0.0
-5th -4th -3rd -2nd -1st Impl 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8Th
Mth mth mth mth mth Mth Mth Mth Mth Mth Mth Mth Mth Mth
Months Before and After Implementation
The newly hired people will generate $1,261,853,549 of retail spending by the 8th month
after Implementation. This also results in additional employment at all three sectors of the
economy.
Individual consumers will be encouraged to use these coupons as their way to help increase
domestic employment. The coupons may encourage them to select products that are
domestically produced even though current government and/or political considerations probably
will not allow a “Buy American-Made Products” promotion.
To replenish these goods they will purchase $12,507 million from wholesalers.
See the Chart below for how these benefits take place month-by-month
$45,000 $40,893
$40,000 Total
$35,000 $10,195 MFG
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000 $1,096 Add RTL
$15,000
$10,000 $17,094 Coupons
$5,000
$0
Impl. 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Mth Mth Mth Mth Mth Mth Mth Mth Mth Mth Mth Mth
Overview Page 1
2007 was the most recent year of relatively acceptable levels of % unemployment of total
workforce as shown below
5% is a goal selected as the eventual target level of overall unemployment to be reached by all
of the “Jobs Programs collectively after at least two years.
For 2007 the % unemployment in the retail, wholesale, and manufacturing sectors were 5.1%,
3.3%, and 4.3% respectively as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
The collective target of the Coupons-For-Jobs Initiative for the combination of retail,
wholesale, and manufacturing sectors in 8 months is 6.95% unemployed out of a total
combined workforce of 35,044,363 (employed plus unemployed).
The Coupons-For-Jobs are issued only at the retail level of the economy.
The derived demands at the wholesale and domestic manufacturing levels result from
the replenishment of retail inventory consumed as a result of consumer transactions
The $ value of Coupons required to add 1 retail job per month is assumed to be
equal to the average monthly retail sales per employee in 2007, namely $21,453 as
shown below
Table 2 – Retail Sales per Employee per Month
BASE YEAR
2006 2007 2008
Average Retail Sales per Month $322,461,333,333 $332,901,916,667 $329,996,416,667
Total Retail Employment 15,355,783 15,518,067 15,356,300
Total Retail Sales
/Employee/Year $251,992 $257,430 $257,872
Total Retail Sales per
Employee per Month $20,999 $21,453 $21,489
% Retail Unemployment
5.40% 5.10% 6.20%
Tentative target of new retail jobs that will be added probably not sooner than 1 month after the
coupons are issued are shown in Table 3 below.
By comparing the Coupons-For-Jobs redeemed vs. those issued for a particular month, the
Federal Government may have to upwardly adjust the amount of coupons issued in subsequent
months to assure that the cumulative targeted amount will be redeemed. (Some randomly
chosen recipients may not use the coupons for whatever reasons.)
The Coupons are to be used for merchandise* other than food, clothing and services**.
(A possible alternative to printed coupons may be some form of single use, time limited
debit cards, if this is at least as effective as printed coupons and has reduced costs for
reducing counterfeiting.)
They will be redeemed by consumers at bricks and mortar stores which meet “Small
Business” criteria (500 or fewer employees per firm)
Larger businesses are more likely than smaller ones to directly import products
from foreign sources. This reduces the chances of stimulating domestic
wholesale and manufacturing jobs
Also internet retailers are excluded because of the inability to utilize hard copy coupons
in transactions
The coupons would have a $20 minimum denomination. Purchases of the designated
merchandise under this program must not be less than the face value of the Coupons tendered
It does not matter whether the addressee uses the coupons personally or not, as long as they
get used before they expire.
Retailers and the banking system already have experience processing coupons and food stamp
programs. Handling these coupons ought to be readily adopted and executed by them.
When the retailers deposit coupons in their bank, this will be the measurement
transaction of the Coupons-For-Jobs use of federal funds. Because these deposits will be
separate from others, it will be possible to determine the amount of Coupons-For-Jobs actually
used month-by-month.
As stated previously, over a 6 month period consumers in high unemployment counties in each
state would receive $100 time-limited (1 month at a time) Federal Government Coupons-For-
Jobs to purchase designated goods from local small businesses (500 employees or less). This
results in increased demand for the designated products. With enough increased sales there
will be reason for these redemption stores to hire more employees to satisfy customers’
demand.
The Federal Government will apportion a month’s issue of Coupons-For-Jobs among the states
in proportion to each state’s share of the total people unemployed in the nation.
Monthly, within each designated county, there will be a new randomly selected group of people
chosen to receive the coupons. The group may be selected from those who are identified by the
federal government as employed, unemployed or collecting Social Security payments, or
equivalent funds and who have mailing addresses.
After the 30-day issuing life of the coupons they will no longer be valid
See Appendix 4 for an example of how this might be done in one state
Each state will benefit from the program’s impact on their counties which have the
most significant unemployment problems.
The number of participating retail firms will experience relatively more Coupon trade than
if there was a simultaneous national roll-out because redemptions of coupons are
concentrated in only some of the counties in a state.
Therefore, the resulting increase in local retail employment will be more noticeable.
The costs to distribute the coupons and otherwise monitor the program’s progress would
be less if only some counties are the focus of the program rather than all counties.
Designated Coupons-For-Jobs retailers will be authorized to display signs which announce that
they are eligible to receive coupons from consumers. A supporting local area public relations
program should make it relatively easy for consumers to find them.
At the Retail Level, stores will deposit these Coupons-For-Jobs separately in their
business banking account within 7 days of the end of the issue month. The retailer can
then withdraw the funds and use them for any business purpose ** (hopefully to replenish
inventory from their wholesale suppliers).
The wholesalers, in turn, will experience increased demand for their products and need to
replenish them from manufacturers (hopefully, domestic ones).
**It is not practical to constrain/monitor how the retailer uses the funds generated by the
Coupons-For-Jobs program. Since retailers are in business “to do business,”
they will need to replenish their inventory. If they become busy enough, they
will add employees to handle the increased business at the assumed average
rate of 1 equivalent employee for each $21,453 of sales.
There probably will be a modest lag (probably not more than 1/2 to 1 month) before employment
starts to increase after beginning retail inventory levels are reduced. This has been considered
in calculating the effects of Coupons-For-Jobs on employment.
After new retail employees are hired (in wholesale and or manufacturing, as well), they
begin to increase their own retail spending (not limited by the Coupons-For-Jobs product
constraints).
Current retail per capita expenditures are $1,104 per person per month. This will continue for
each new employee as long as the person is employed (discounted by 60% from month-to-
month for non-designated product consumption). This spending will also increase the demand
for replenishments from wholesalers and eventually for additional retail employees.
Retailers will utilize their other sources of funds and/or credit to support the increase in
business and employment in the months following an individual issue of Coupons-For-
Jobs. (Other government initiatives to increase lending to small businesses should help with
this.)
By the 8th month after implementation, as a result of both the initial issuing of coupons and
the subsequent retail spending by newly hired retail, wholesale, and manufacturing employees
the impact on the Retail Sector will be
Therefore, we can assume that $57,346 of wholesale sales is needed to support one additional
wholesale employee. See the calculations in Table 5. which follows.
.
Table 5 – Monthly Wholesale Sales $ per Employee
BASE YEAR
2006 2007 2008
Retailers' Purchases by Goods from
Wholesalers $2,800,523,000,000 $2,901,078,000,000 $239,247,402,083
Retail Purchases from Suppliers as a
% of Retail Sales 72.4% 72.6% 72.5%
Average Wholesale Sales per Month $298,380,000,000 $345,701,333,333 $373,355,583,333
Total Wholesale Employment 5,904,500 5,963,700
6,028,300
Total Whsl Sales/Employee / Month $50,534 $57,346 $62,605
Wholesale Unemployment Rate 3.20% 3.30% 4.50%
New wholesale jobs will be added probably not sooner than one month after whole sales $ have
been generated as shown in the following table. There will also be jobs added from the
additional retail spending by newly hired employees month-by-month.
Impl. Mth
1st Mth $1,616,552,496 8.8%
2nd Mth $2,487,003,839 23,961 23,961 8.7%
3rd Mth $2,499,487,003 36,863 36,863 8.3%
4th Mth $2,506,208,706 36,863 141 37,005 7.7%
5th Mth $1,884,457,746 36,863 218 37,081 6.5%
6th Mth $1,486,784,397 27,647 220 27,867 6.0%
7th Mth $14,789,863 21,749 222 21,971 5.6%
8th Mth $11,720,210 167 167 5.6%
Total $12,507,004,259 183,946 968 184,914
BASE YEAR
2006 2007 2008
Total Mfg Sales $5,021,555,000,000 $5,094,474,000,000 $5,120,921,000,000
Total Mfg Employment 14,155,000 13,884,000 13,423,000
Total Mfg $ /Employee $354,755 $366,931 $381,503
Total Mfg $ /Employee /Month $29,563 $30,578 $31,792
The newly hired people will generate $1,261,854,000 of retail spending by the
8th Month after Implementation. This also results in additional employment in all
three private sectors of the economy.
ASSUMPTIONS:
The large majority of “Small Business” Retailers included in this program will not try to
“game” the system.
The federal government will determine which agency will further document
implementation details and issue the coupons and monitor and publish the results
monthly.
The minimum value of $100 of Coupons (Scrip) in $20 per Coupon is sufficiently large
that it will enable the purchasing of qualifying items that probably would not be made b y
consumers without this program.
Using the 2007 average $ Sales/employee values to estimate the amount of Coupons-
For-Jobs to issue for a targeted amount of employment is correct enough. I am not
aware of any Bureau of Labor Statistics data to suggest some other ratio.
Retailers of goods are in business “to do business.” They will be more motivated to use
the proceeds from their increased sales to replenish inventories and add people to
service customers than to use them for other purposes.
The similar effects on the above listed items by the generation of additional retail
spending by newly hired employees.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/fileview?id=0B2eXljXaE3GENWUzMjY1OTEtMmUwZi
00Njg5LWE4MTUtMWFhYWFkZGEyMTFj&hl=en
Please copy and paste this address to your web browser, if need be.
If the spreadsheet does not immediately open, click on “docslisthome” and select
“Cascading Flow Chart 3-8-10.” Then click “Download” followed by “Open” on
the following dialog screen. Sorry about this, but I don’t have a website to store
the spreadsheet.
The concepts incorporated in this Proposal are similar to the “bottoms-up” strategies
implemented on the factory floor, in the warehouse and in the marketplace utilized to
achieve these turnarounds.
Prior to heading this firm, he was a general manager of divisions of publically owned
companies.
CONTRIBUTORS: